November 1, 2024 • 34 mins
In the third hour, Dave Softy Mahler and Dick Fain chat with Hugh Millen about run percentages in the NFL correlated to winning, the Seahawks-Rams game, the Rams game ahead this weekend, and UW QB situation, then play You Can Only Have One.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
As part of our never ending coverage for the twelfth
Man in the NFL. This is Football Fridays with Hugh
Millin sponsored by Tito's handmade Vodka Tito's on game Day
for me and Coach Fine cocktail recipes for the everyday
fan at Tito's Vodka dot Com forty percent alcohol by volume,
namely eighty proof, crafted to be savored responsibly.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Now with you, here's Zufi and Dick.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
All right, So I'm just trying to translate everything that
just showed up on my cell phone by the way
here from the.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
I think I've got to figure it out. But it
took me about buddy, Hugh Millan, Well, I got it, yeah,
so I'm gonna take it. Hang on a second.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
I just was talking to Rich Moore in the in
the break here, Hugh, I'm gonna take I'm just take
a week off so I can go through all this.
I'll get back to you all right, Bye bye bye
next Friday.
Speaker 4 (00:46):
It's chart is easier to easier to digest than the
verbiage underneath it.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
So just look at the chart.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
All right.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
You guys are congressional. What let's let's get that fixed.
That is underwater.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Hugh just had a marguerite and fell into his pool.
So let's get that fixed and we'll get we'll get
humilling back on the air. But we're gonna talk a
lot of Seahawks rams with Hugh, a lot of USCU
dub as well with Hugh, And you know, I think, look,
I mean, the biggest thing that you and I have
been talking about, and Hugh's back with us now is
the Seahawks and their running game and their inability to run,
their you know, unwillingness at times to run. And so
(01:23):
the question here that we've been kind of kicking around.
Do teams win in the NFL because they run? Or
are they running because they're winning. So you've been kind
of working on this little side project for the last
couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
What have you?
Speaker 5 (01:35):
What have you dug up? Yeah, well it's just an update.
I did it a couple of weeks ago. Here here's
the thing, It's it's kind of bothered me for decades
that I hear what I consider a fallacy that says,
if you just associate the correlation between winning and a
high run percentage, then you say, oh, well, all we
(01:56):
have to do is run more and we'll win more.
And I think it's a it commits a fallacy of
confusing correlation with causation. And so Dick, here's what I
would say. You're absolutely right. The Seahawks in quarters one, two,
and three this year twenty twenty four, they're third. They
(02:17):
have the third lowest run percentage okay, and meaning third
highest pass percentage both in quarters one, two three, and
then just coincidentally in the just for the fourth quarter,
they're also third lowest. So for this year, I totally
agree with you. They've got to run the ball better.
They've got an elite back, So I think I'm one
(02:40):
hundred percent on board with you. But now let's talk
more globally. If we just say, okay, what does the
history of football tell us? And look what I did
is just I took the beginning of twenty twenty two,
so we got two and.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
A half years.
Speaker 5 (02:55):
Why because that was the beginning of GENO. I could
have picked another year. And by the way, I also
have ten years going from fifteen to twenty four. All
hit on that very briefly at the end. So for
the last two and a half years, what we do
is we say, okay, we got the win percentage. Kansas
City Chiefs are the winning this team over the last
two and a half years. All right, And we got
(03:17):
the column sorted for win percentage, the Bills are second,
the Eagles are third, forty nine or.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Fourth, blah blah blah. Then we take the.
Speaker 5 (03:25):
Run percentage in just quarters one, two, and three, the
theory being that, Okay, we want to see what teams
are doing to win. What are they doing in quarters one,
two and three. Well, here's the Chiefs are number one
in win percentage. They're thirty first in run percentage in
the first three quarters. They're checking it all over the yard.
They're scarcely running. The Buffalo Bills are second in win
(03:48):
percentage over that two and a half year period.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
In the first three.
Speaker 5 (03:51):
Quarters they go, they're twenty ninth in the fourth quarter,
their fifth. Let me go back to Kansas City. They're
thirty first, ranked thirty first in run percentage in quarters one,
two and three, but the rank seventh in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles, they're nineteenth in run percentage in the first
(04:12):
three quarters. They're first in run percentage in the fourth. Okay,
I'll go down to the bottom. The Carolina Panthers they're
fourth in run percentage in one two three in quarters
one two three, they're twenty fourth in the fourth quarter.
So we're really looking at that quarter one, two and
three because that's what teams are doing to try and
get ahead, and then they salt the way. And here's
(04:35):
here's the final analysis, because I gave some anecdotals just
to give you an idea. The correlation of your rank
run ranking, your run propensity in the first three quarters
actually has a negative three point fifty eight. That is
what statisticians call a moderate negative correlation, meaning the more
(04:56):
you win, the higher your win number goes up, the
lower you're run percentages in those first three quarters. So
negative three point fifty eight correlation on running in the
first three quarters. How about fourth quarter positive six point
twenty one correlation that is considered a strong correlation. Point
(05:17):
eight or higher would be very strong six twenty one.
That's that's just isolating the fourth quarter. So for the
last two and a half years, we can say, and
that's picking enough data. It's recent enough to be relevant,
but picking enough data, the correlation is overwhelming. And and
then I just said, for you know, for giggles, I'll
(05:38):
just go back.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I can pick.
Speaker 5 (05:39):
I could do this over twenty five years. I could
do over any period of team time you'd select. I
went from twenty fifteen. Just because this is the tenth year.
Kansas City Chiefs again are number one. Guess what they
are in run percentage? Thirty second. Pittsburgh Steelers are number
two in win percentage. They're twenty fifth in running in
the first three quarters, but they're tenth. By the way,
(06:00):
the Chiefs are third in running in the fourth quarter,
but thirty second running in the quarters one, two and three.
Green Bay they're the third winning this team. They're twenty
eighth in run percentage quarters one, two and three. They're
sixteenth in the fourth quarter. My final one, the Bills
are the fourth. I just I'm giving the top four
winning this teams of the last ten years. The Bills
(06:21):
in quarters one, two and three, they're twenty fourth ranked
in running. They're second in the first three quarters. They're
second ranked in the fourth quarter. The correlation over ten
years is this, there's a negative correlation if you want
to run in the first three quarters, a negative two
to seventy three. There's a positive correlation in the fourth
(06:41):
quarter of seven eighty You go from negative two to
seventy three. Think of it like a batting average closer
to the yard to zero. There's no correlation, and so
there's a negative correlation in the run percentage for the
first three quarters. You jump up to a positive seven eighty.
That's a ten year deal. So you can pick any
year you want a reasonable amount of time, over and
(07:02):
over and over again. What is the conclusion in English
without numbers? Teams are are running because they are winning,
not winning because they are running.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
A couple things I appreciate the research. A couple of
things just scream at me when I look at your chart.
One Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback of the Kansasy Chiefs.
Of course they're going to throw more. Josh Allen's the
quarterback of the Buffalo Bills. Of course they're going to
throw more. Joe Burrow thirty second most running in quarters
number one, two and three. Of course they are because
Joe Burro is their quarterback. You look at some of
(07:38):
the worst teams, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears last two and
a half years haven't had quarterbacks. Of Course they're going
to run because they can't throw the ball.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
So that would be exactly the point that would be,
that's exactly the point. But that's how the NFL.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
Right, But the Seahawks don't have Joe Burrow, they don't
have Josh Allen, they don't have Patrick Mahomes, and yet
they're still running at almost throwing it all almost the
rate that those teams are, and this year they're throwing
at a higher rate than those teams are. We have
that we have a mediocre what you identified absolutely correctly
last year at the end of the season as a
dead average NFL quarterback, and for some reason, our offensive
(08:16):
coordinator doesn't think he's a dead average quarterback. He thinks
he's like a top five quarterback in the NFL.
Speaker 5 (08:21):
And that's what confuses Well, the problem is when you
give the ball to Walker six times in neutral down
downs last week and you get nine yards for one
point five, I think he's in a conundrum. But Dick,
you're absolutely right. What jumps out at you, Pat Mahomes
jumps out at you. Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Yes,
(08:44):
Tom Brady. Those are the teams at the top of
the winning percentage, which speaks to this is a passing
league and by the way, I've got columns upon columns,
and I run a correlation on every one. I'd bore
the hell out of here. I already have. But I'm
going to just tell you this. All the running stats
have very low correlation. All, whether it's yards per temp,
(09:05):
whether it's passer rating, blah blah blah, passing has an
overwhelmingly high correlation to winning. What's the speaking complaining English millon?
This is a passing league. You've got to be good
throwing the football and rushing. How well you run the
ball is far less of a correlation to winning.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
And so you're absolutely right, Dick, You're you're, you're, you're.
Speaker 5 (09:30):
Identifying the factors, and but it's refuting the contention. Hey,
we got to run the ball, run the ball, run
the ball to have the highest percentage, because if you
start citing teams that have the highest win percentage and
you say, look at how much they're running, it would
be more accurate to say, cite the highest teams with
the highest win percentage and generally they have the best
(09:52):
quarterback play.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Well, I think it's gonna be interesting to see what
they can pull off this weekend against the Rams, because
as Dick and I have talked about this.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
This RAM defense in front is not what it used
to be.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
Does this feel like the kind of day on Sunday
here where Kenny Walker gets going without DK metcalf out there?
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Where do you?
Speaker 3 (10:09):
What would your kind of gut feel for the if
the Seahawks are going to move the ball against the
RAM defense this Sunday, what does that look like to you?
Speaker 5 (10:16):
Well, it's a Dick's point. I don't think Geno can
just carry a team. So my vision of Seatle's offense
is the same as your vision and everybody else, and
Grubs and McDonald's and everybody. I'm certain of it. You
can't be the third lowest team in terms of your
run propensity in both quarters one, two and three and
(10:37):
in quarter four, right, and so yeah, you have to
you have to somehow find a way to make this work.
And you know, I think you're paying the price of
having an offensive line that is dead last. Seattle Seahawks
are thirty second in the league in cap expenditure towards
(10:58):
the offensive line mentioned the Chiefs their number two. They're
at sixty million, the Sea extra at fifteen. They're literally
right at four times as much the cap, and you
know they've been able to say, hey, look we're gonna
let guys like Tyreek Hill walk. We'll just deal with
kind of a pedestrian receiver group. Keep Travis obviously, but
(11:21):
we got to have a fort to five offensive line.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Dave, you were ringing that bell a long time ago
with Creed Humphrey.
Speaker 5 (11:26):
You were the first guy just saying, dude, what are
we doing with Eskridge draft Greed Humphrey. You were saying
that before the draft, and so the chief Here's the
thing about Pat Mahomes on this, guys, this is an
important game to remember the Kansas City Chiefs. Was that
in twenty they played the or it was nineteen or
twenty the year they played Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
(11:49):
The Buccaneers won thirty eight to nine. Pat Mahomes looked
as average as a guy could possibly look. Again, thirty
eight to nine, he looked overwhelmed, and yet he had
already won an MVP in twenty eighteen. This wasn't We're
not talking about like young oh on his way to developing. No,
this dude was he was hot off the jump after
(12:09):
sitting with the year with the Alex Smith.
Speaker 4 (12:11):
Is that the game he didn't have Eric Fisher his
left tackle the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
As damp I know this.
Speaker 5 (12:17):
See the offensive line needed an overhaul, and and that's
what the Chiefs did. They say, Look, we've got this,
this transcendent talent in Mahomes, but if we can't protect
from him, we'll just sit here and go. You know,
every February, we'll lose Super Bowls by twenty points if
we can't protect him. That guy looked at his he
looked like, you know, Daniel Jones in that Super Bowl Mahomes.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
And so at any event, Yeah, that's part of it.
Speaker 5 (12:47):
But Dick, you're look really smart people over there and
Rent and trying to figure this thing out, like how
much do we get Kenneth Walker? They know Kenneth Walker's
a stud far better in my to my eyes than Charbonney,
potentially elite back. But you know this in ballast cannot continue.
I'll agree with you on that.
Speaker 4 (13:06):
This defense, Hugh. You I just visualize what you told
us at the beginning of the year and how cool
it was to hear you talk about what Baltimore's defense
did last year and how you know these quarterbacks are
largely in the shotgun now and as the ball's getting snapped,
the quarterback's eyes have to go down to catch the football.
And that's when all this shifting goes on in the
Baltimore defense. And I was so excited to see that.
(13:28):
And here we are, half the half the way through
the season. Have we seen that. Does this defense look
at all like the twenty twenty three Baltimore rates.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
Well, they're not tied together on a string like that
that team was, and you know, nor would expect them
to be. I think, you know, it's a relatively completed
defense that if you're thinking too much, you're a little
bit slower. I think the more reps you get, the
more it becomes reflexive.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
I can remember sitting.
Speaker 5 (13:53):
In a in a meeting with John Alway and he
just said, not to be profound, he just kind of
said it off handed.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
He just says, he says, yeah, in this league, you
can't think.
Speaker 5 (14:04):
You gotta react, you know, and so you have to
have enough reps where you are reacting right. And so
I think that that goes with the defense. I mean,
you know, through the first eight games the Ravens in
McDonald's first year, Ravens were points a game nineteenth. The
(14:25):
Seahawks this year are twenty points to drive. The Ravens
were twenty fifth. The Seaks are seventeenth this year. Points
a game, This is two years ago. Yards of game,
the Ravens were twenty fifth. This is through eight games.
Seahawks are twenty second. Yards of play Ravens twenty one,
Seahawks twenty one, last one play success Ravens twenty fifth,
Seahawks twenty two. Seattle has very similar numbers through eight
(14:46):
games this as Mike McDonald had with the Ravens. In fact,
you know a little bit better nominally better. Am I
saying it's going to take hold in the second half
the way it did with the Ravens. I'm not necessar
necessarily saying that, but I'm not saying it's not. Let's
just see how it plays out as as guys are
healthy now and and playing. I'll tell you what dick
(15:07):
to you to your question about the scheming. A lot
of a lot of that stuff played out against Atlanta, right.
I was like, Oh, this is starting this, these disguises
they were fooling. Uh, they were fooling in. Kirk Cousins,
a veteran quarterback and absolutely fooling him. That was right
there on tape. You could see he was doing things
that nobody would do if he if he knew the coverage.
Speaker 6 (15:29):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
And here, let's get a break. Let mee, John Pill,
We've got a break because we're up against it here.
I do want to come back though, and talk some
Dogs at USC, Will Rogers, Demon Williams, the whole thing.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
We'll do that next on ninety three to three kJ
r f M.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Now back to the Washington State Beat Commissions Football Friday
with Sathi and Dick on your home for the NFL
Sports Radio ninety three point three kJ r FM.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
All right here, Mellingray joins us now on the radio show.
Here we let's go away from the Hawks and Rams
for a second. Dogs in USC tomorrow twelve thirty three,
game four to thirty, kickoff right here, ninety three to
three kjr FM. The clamoring for Demon Williams is getting
louder and louder every single week. We actually have had
people suggest that maybe they should pull Will Rogers off
(16:16):
the field when the Huskies get to the twenty yard line,
which obviously sounds ridiculous for a lot of reasons, but
for the let's see more of number two crowd.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
What do you say to them?
Speaker 5 (16:26):
Yeah, well, first of all, I'm really excited about Demon Williams.
I have high hopes for what he can do next year.
I don't think will Rogers is any kind of transcendent talent,
So I kind of understand that our eyes kind of
are not deceiving us. But you know, you look at
the factor as a quarterback, you have Demon Williams is
(16:48):
one hundred and six plays. He's had two completions where
the ball was in the air more than ten yards.
That's one point nine percent. Rogers has forty three. By
the way, about ten percent of the plays that he's
on the field, you get a complete in ten yards more.
So we know he's a more capable pastor. You say, well,
what about the running. Oddly enough, on scrambles, Rogers has
(17:13):
ten scrambles and a seven point two yard average. Demond
has six scrambles and a six point two average. The
sack rate is higher for Rogers five point three percent,
but not significantly. Again, that's sack per dropback. Demon is
four point eight percent versus again Rogers five point three percent.
A couple other things here, yards per play when the
(17:37):
Husk This is the Huskies. Husky's yards per play when
Demand's on the field five point four, when Rogers on
the field six point five. Now let's talk about red
zone because here's the problem for the Huskies offensively. They
are one hundred and twelfth in red zone touchdown percentage
and in terms of yards to points or points to
(17:59):
y yards is the same thing. The Huskies are third
worst in all the group of four. The only teams
that are worse are Houston and Florida State. So they
get a lot of yards and not a lot of points,
which begs a question again getting back to that one
hundred and twelfth in the red zone, what's going on
in the red zone? Okay, So when Demand's on the field,
you get two point six yards per play. When Rogers
(18:23):
on the field, you got three point four. Now let's
go to drives, and I'll just go with red zone drives.
What I did is they say drives that are will
Rogers only, okay, and then drives that are mixed so
on will Rogers only, so we don't see demand for
(18:44):
a single play in the red zone. That the Huskies
points per drive is four point nine. Remember that and
their touchdown percentage is fifty five percent. Now, it's relatively
little sample size, but that the mixed red zone drives,
you got demand on there. You got you go from
four point nine points per drive to three point eight
(19:07):
and your touchdown percentage goes from fifty five percent to
thirty three percent.
Speaker 4 (19:11):
So how many times were there?
Speaker 5 (19:13):
Yeah, but as I said, it's a small there's only
there was only six that were mixed versus twenty that
are Rogers only. So uh, now it's kind of a
chicken or the egg deal, is it?
Speaker 2 (19:26):
Okay?
Speaker 5 (19:27):
Are we are we replacing uh? Are we replacing Rogers
because he's not good? Or are we not good because
we're replacing Rogers?
Speaker 1 (19:36):
You know?
Speaker 5 (19:36):
And look, there's an argument. I get it. It's modern football.
We can't uh, you know, just cite quarterback situations in
the past because it's the day of nil. And if
Jedfish thinks that, hey, we got to keep this guy
happy so he doesn't transfer, what have you.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
There's a factor. Look, that's part of the discussion.
Speaker 5 (19:56):
I get it, and and and and certainly in him
some some reps is important. I think there's a flip
side to it. The continuity piece obviously, and also maybe
the leadership part of it that Rogers hard to get
the guys to respond to him when his own coaches saying, hey,
(20:16):
we don't believe in you down in the red zone
even though you got us here. So I think that
there's good arguments to be made. I'm measured here in
this conversation. I kind of got, as Pete Carroll said,
hormonal on all last week or whatever it was, was
it Monday? And so so look, I'm trying to bring
some facts to the discussion because I know a lot
of people are talking about it.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
I think those are some of the relevant facts.
Speaker 4 (20:39):
Did you ever swap at all with Paul Siicaro in
eighty four?
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Uh?
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Not not that way, not that well, no, not that way.
Speaker 5 (20:46):
In fact, James is when when he and so many
people said, well they they rotated Hobart and Burnell.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
Here's the deal. Mark Burnell was a Rose Bull.
Speaker 5 (20:57):
MVP who got his knee shredded in this ninety one right,
and Don James was a very loyal person. So when
you had that year ninety two, He's sitting there going
I got in Brunell an unbelievable leader, voracious worker, Rose
Bowl MVP, and and yet I've got Hobart who won
a national championship and have never lost a game. I
(21:18):
think he felt like they're both deserving a playing time.
I don't think that's similar, and he certainly didn't do
it in the manner, you know, within a drive his James.
As a general rule, I don't want to say always
because then if it happened once that I'm unaware of,
but I was living twenty blocks from the Unversity Washington
all through that time. What Don James did is he said,
(21:40):
I'm gonna I'm gonna give the guy the first drive
of the second quarter, the entire ride. Everybody kind of
knew it going into it, So by any of it,
I think.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
I think it's a good discussion.
Speaker 5 (21:50):
There's points to be made on both sides, but I
think those stats also bear a little bit of reflection
as we discussed this well.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
I also think your point about the nil era cannot
just be dismissed to mont Williams is not trapped here
right like other guys were, you know, the last you know,
maybe ten to fifteen whatever year. So there is a
little bit of a recruiting element because I guarantee you this.
When the season ends, there's going to be poachers coming
after him, and there may be poachers coming after him already.
I got no idea behind back channels. But this game
(22:17):
tomorrow is a huge game for both teams. I mean,
as new Heizel Saidny is exactly right. Whoever loses this
game is going to be kind of looking, you know,
maybe through a little bit of hell to get to
the postseason. And for Lincoln Riley, they were talking about
doing way more than that. So this is a gigantic
game for them. I mean, what's your gut tomorrow?
Speaker 5 (22:35):
Yeah, well, just a final thought on that, Yes, that's
true about his nil. But then you just say, okay,
in twenty twenty four, how many coaches they're certainly aware
of wanting to keep their young quarterbacks. How many are
doing a rotation like this? You know, I think you know,
if we're just focusing on twenty twenty four. But here's
the thing, here's a fact for you. This is cool.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
In early eighties and mid uh and mid.
Speaker 5 (23:01):
Eighties, uh Don James as the head coach, there was
a period of seven years, seven seasons where we're going
to take the Pac ten and to find a Sunshine
school as the following all four of the California schools,
both of the Arizona schools, so you got six Sunshine
schools in the conference. Don James went seven seasons, did
(23:23):
not lose a single game in Husky Stadium to the
Sunshine Schools, not a single one, not in September, not
in November nine, any time. So what I think a
lot of people noticed in those times is USC that, look,
there's a little bit of a you know, a deva
quality to USC when they're at their worst. When they're
at their best, obviously they're they're the premiere program on
(23:45):
the West Coast, that's undenied. But when they kind of slip,
have they been a program through the years that handle adversity. Well,
I think there's evidence the answer is no. Particularly when
you're having a down season, you got to travel, it's.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Raining on you.
Speaker 5 (24:02):
You know, you kind of accept the idea, Hey, maybe
maybe today's not our day. Let's just get on the
plane and go home. I think there has been a
quality of SC like that. I remember beating them twenty
four to nothing and just you could just see their
body language and it was raining and they didn't want
to be there and it's not just SC again, those
Sunshine schools. So I think you got a good chance
to have that kind of component going on with a
(24:25):
four lost SC team tomorrow.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
How about the matchup, because you know, we've been getting
pounded in the second half by the Iowas of the
world and the Indiana's of the world and just know
quarters Big ten football. Yeah, physically, and this seems to me. Now,
Woody Markskin is a good running back, but you don't
think of USC as just this physical, pounding team. So
is this a better match up a little easier lift
(24:46):
for the Huskies, particularly on defense this week?
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Well, I think that.
Speaker 5 (24:53):
First of all, you mentioned Woody marks Yeah, that guy's
the best back I've seen this side of Boise.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
Wow, I think that guy is this year.
Speaker 5 (25:04):
Well, you know what I mean, you know outside how
about I'm sorry, outside of Boise. I think he's sensational
and you know, if you let him get going, I
mean he's great in the screen game. I mean, that
guy can make you miss. He runs hard, he's got grace.
I think he's a top flight back man. We've seen
a lot of great backs at see. I'm not saying
he's the Marcus Allens and the Charles Whites, and they
(25:25):
got a lot of hardware, you know, in the back
of that end zone with all those guys.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
But uh, he's really really, really freaking good.
Speaker 5 (25:32):
Yeah, and you know, Miller Moss, eh, you know, just
kind of okay. I just think there's something missing there.
And but I think there's something missing in the in
the leadership of the defense in the second I don't know.
I don't really I don't really see the pisson vinegar
jumping out at me, you know.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
So I think they got to play with more emotion,
I really do.
Speaker 5 (25:54):
And they've been better at husky sting him of course, David,
as you mentioned, they've only really played one decent opponent
in Michigan. But I think that their emotions were at
the right place against Michigan.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
They got to be there tomorrow, Yeah, no doubt. All right, man,
great stuff, enjoy it. And yeah, a lot of data
in that.
Speaker 4 (26:10):
Well, you got more.
Speaker 3 (26:11):
You got more charts and grafts to pass along. We'll
bypass the charts. You just give us like a week's
notice and we'll be prepared a right rock and roll
all right with us. We're gonna break You got a
lot more to get to, including Rick new Eisler coming
around six twenty tonight on ninety three to three KJRFL.
Speaker 1 (26:27):
Now back to the Washington State Beat Commissions Football Friday
with Saftie and Dick on your home for the NFL
Sports Radio ninety three point three kjr FM.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
You know, talking to Humilling, man, it's like when you're done,
it's like sex.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
It really is exhausted. You just need a smoke. You've
got to have a smoke.
Speaker 3 (26:52):
When you're done with you you need to just kick
your feet up and just have a smoke and just
relax and stare at the ceiling for about twenty minutes
and just digest everything that just went on. I mean,
my brain is like I just feel like it's just thumping.
In the last two segments after all of that that
demand Williams will Rogers conversation. Do they run because they win?
Do they win because they run? Conversation? It really is
(27:15):
a lot to digest, man, no question about it. So
it's almost one of those things where you want to
hear it once on the radio and then go home
and hear it again on podcasts, Like when I watched
Jackson's probably like me, when you're watching like a Star
Wars movie or a Lord of the Rings film, you
want to go back and watch it again and just
pause the screen and look around right to see all
the stuff in the background you never noticed.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
You will never know when when you watch the first time.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
So when you when you have HU on, my recommendation
is hear them live and then go home and check
out the podcast, and all this stuff that get thought
you heard but you didn't hear, you'll hear it again
for the first time on the podcast. So Seahawks and
Rams on Sunday, obviously, Seahawks, excuse me, Huskies in USC tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
I don't know if we've had a.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
Weekend like this in a long time where this early
in the year early for the Hawks but not early
for the Huskies obviously. I'm talking just early November. Both
teams are playing gigantic games for the psyche of the
fan base and the direction of the football team.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
Both these teams.
Speaker 4 (28:17):
Who's the more important win?
Speaker 3 (28:20):
You know, I feel like we've played this game every week.
I feel like every single win it's warranted.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
By the way. That's because he is pretty easy.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
Because you have two teams that are both you know,
on a teetering I.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
Think the more important win would be the Huskies because
I think if they lose this game, well, Dick, they're
four and four. If they lose this game, they have
to beat Penn State or Oregon to be Bowl eligible.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
I guess the question.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
Is, do you if you could only have one a
bowl game for the Huskies and the fifteen extra praxice
or a playoff game for the Seahawks, which do you take?
Because really that's what we're talking about. I do not
think the Seahawks go to the playoffs. They lose this
game because they are staring four and six right down
the If they lose this game because they got to
at San Francisco after the.
Speaker 2 (29:02):
Bye, we now I get that.
Speaker 3 (29:03):
The only saving grace for me with the Seahawks would
be their division. Right, they lose the game, San Francisco
may not be very good. The Cardinals may not be
very good. They lose the game, they've got what they had,
nine games left to go or eight games left to
go after this, there's plenty of time to turn things around.
The original question you just asked, what is more important
(29:26):
for us as sports fans? If we're equal parts husky
and equal parts Seahawks, which I will tell you.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
That I'm not. I'm more husky than I am Seahawk,
but whatever, I get it.
Speaker 4 (29:35):
But I'm like fifty two. I'm more husky too, but
I'm fifty forty.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
But you're more husky though, right, and the four four percent.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
If you don't think the Seahawks can make a Super
Bowl or play for a championship, you may think, Ah,
the hell with it. Just give me the extra couple
of weeks. Let's get these guys set to go. Like,
for example, if they if they do play in a
bowl game, do we think Will Rogers is going to
play in the ball game.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
I don't know if you will or not. Honest, I
don't know what his NFL mind is thinking. Mario said
on the air there's absolutely no chance.
Speaker 4 (30:05):
When I heard marrow sal I was like, wow, I don't.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
Know if I agree with what Mario said, because I
have no idea what Will Rogers would be thinking. He
might be the kind of guy that would say the
hell with I mean, bow Nicks was the kind of guy,
and he was a first round draft pick and he
played a nothing bowl game against a nothing team in
Liberty so I have no idea.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Do players that aren't like at least relatively high draft
picks to skip out of bowl games? Maybe a bunch
of first, second, third rounder skipping out of it.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
I would be.
Speaker 3 (30:30):
Certain if we went back and looked at all the
quarterbacks and players that have skipped out of ball games.
There's a lot of them that were Day two and
Day three picks. Now maybe they were wrong right about
where they thought they'd go. I have no idea what
will Rogers three pick?
Speaker 2 (30:44):
YEA, yeah, yeah, he could be.
Speaker 6 (30:46):
Yeah, for the numbers he put up in the SEC,
it's not impossible that Will Rogers could be a Day
three pick at all.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
Again, Dick, the point is, I don't know. I don't
know what Will Rogers is thinking. But if he does
skip out, that's two three weeks of practice, depending on
the bowl game, for Devin Williams to get a jump
start on next year. So what is more important? I mean,
I happen to think more of the Seahawks chances than
you do, So I might say the Hawks. But if
(31:11):
you don't believe this team can make a run in
this conference, which I still think is wide open, then
you'd say the Hooks I mean just.
Speaker 4 (31:18):
The vibes we're gonna have on both these teams. I mean,
think about it. A win over USC is always good.
I mean, you get a win over USC, I don't
care what their record is, that's a good just like
a win over Michigan's good. We're gonna have that. We
have that feeling of hey, okay, maybe we're turning the
corner and now we can exhale a little bit because
all we gotta do is beat UCLA and we've made
a bowl game, so all right, we got past that
(31:38):
hurdle that we were worried about.
Speaker 6 (31:40):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:40):
And then with the Seahawks, the same thing. It's like, man, okay,
we can right the ship against this Rams team. Take
your break, get healthy, get practice, get that defense ready
to go. I mean, we're just gonna have such positive
vibes on both these teams. But the one team that loses,
or the two teams that lose, right, oh my god,
it's gonna be rough the next week.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
Well, here's the deal.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
When you say it went over USC is always a
big thing, and I agree with you. The reason why
you and I are saying that's because we're fifty years old.
I mean, they're four and four, eight and five. Yeah,
I had the eleven and three year, four and eight,
five and one, eight and five, five and seven. I
mean USC has not been relevant right like they usually
have been. Yeah, Clay Helton pop for the Sam Darnold
Rose Bowl team that beat Penn State whatever.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
But the days of Pete Carroll are.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
Over at USC, you know, playing for national championships at
least for now. So I don't know if I mean
for me it does, but I don't know. Jackson doesn't
win over USC resonate with you, no, and the younger audience.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Like it does for people like us.
Speaker 6 (32:41):
It's nice, but it's like for me, USC is kind
of just there's not a lot of different. Oregon's the
big one, right like for me, like growing up, for sure,
Oregon is always USC is just kind of because they
I mean, they sputtered for so long. Like when I
was really getting into college football in the early two thousands,
we were dominant, and then USC was dominant, but then
it was the uttering years where it was sort of
just like okay, you know, poking each team with a stick,
(33:03):
do please do something. So USC in that big large
span kind of just became you know another team for me.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
And even in the year they went eleven wins with
Lincoln Riley, they played Tulane and lost in the Cotton Bowl.
Speaker 4 (33:18):
At their splits, they are a much worse team in
November through January than they September October.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
So what about you do you know? I haven't looked.
I haven't looked, but this year this is interesting.
Speaker 4 (33:29):
I mentioned the Action Network.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
They gave me this little nugget too.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
This is the second game in college football in the
last fifteen years, and only the fifth in the last
thirty five years where you've got an undefeated team at
home the underdog against a winless road team. It's only
happened five to four times in thirty five years. But
how about this the home team being the Huskies. Yeah,
they're zero to four against the spread and those other
(33:54):
four games.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
See, that's what concerns me about tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
About that, Like you've always said, I want to play
teams that are down coming off a loss. Nobody's looking
at them, they're getting right, the opponent's getting overhyped. The
fact that USC has not won a road game yet,
the fact that USC has pissed away all these fourth
quarter games.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Scares the hell out of shit. I mean, at some
point that's going to change, yes, I think.
Speaker 4 (34:15):
And at some point the Huskies are going to lose
a home game, and you don't think it's going to
be to Ucla.
Speaker 2 (34:19):
So if it's not to Ucla, it's this one.
Speaker 4 (34:22):
I think.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
If they lose tomorrow, they're done. They're done. Ye, Seahawks
are not typically are technically done.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
That's true.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
If they lose on Sunday, the Huskies for a bowl
game purpose, we know are done.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
They are. So that's that you can only have one.
It's the Dougs.
Speaker 3 (34:36):
I think we just answer the question. Answer the question,
make it happen. For God's says, howbout we just get?
Speaker 2 (34:42):
Can we get both? Is it so much to ask?
One week with two wins, please,
As part of our never ending coverage for the twelfth
Man in the NFL. This is Football Fridays with Hugh
Millin sponsored by Tito's handmade Vodka Tito's on game Day
for me and Coach Fine cocktail recipes for the everyday
fan at Tito's Vodka dot Com forty percent alcohol by volume,
namely eighty proof, crafted to be savored responsibly.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Now with you, here's Zufi and Dick.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
All right, So I'm just trying to translate everything that
just showed up on my cell phone by the way
here from the.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
I think I've got to figure it out. But it
took me about buddy, Hugh Millan, Well, I got it, yeah,
so I'm gonna take it. Hang on a second.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
I just was talking to Rich Moore in the in
the break here, Hugh, I'm gonna take I'm just take
a week off so I can go through all this.
I'll get back to you all right, Bye bye bye
next Friday.
Speaker 4 (00:46):
It's chart is easier to easier to digest than the
verbiage underneath it.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
So just look at the chart.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
All right.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
You guys are congressional. What let's let's get that fixed.
That is underwater.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Hugh just had a marguerite and fell into his pool.
So let's get that fixed and we'll get we'll get
humilling back on the air. But we're gonna talk a
lot of Seahawks rams with Hugh, a lot of USCU
dub as well with Hugh, And you know, I think, look,
I mean, the biggest thing that you and I have
been talking about, and Hugh's back with us now is
the Seahawks and their running game and their inability to run,
their you know, unwillingness at times to run. And so
(01:23):
the question here that we've been kind of kicking around.
Do teams win in the NFL because they run? Or
are they running because they're winning. So you've been kind
of working on this little side project for the last
couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
What have you?
Speaker 5 (01:35):
What have you dug up? Yeah, well it's just an update.
I did it a couple of weeks ago. Here here's
the thing, It's it's kind of bothered me for decades
that I hear what I consider a fallacy that says,
if you just associate the correlation between winning and a
high run percentage, then you say, oh, well, all we
(01:56):
have to do is run more and we'll win more.
And I think it's a it commits a fallacy of
confusing correlation with causation. And so Dick, here's what I
would say. You're absolutely right. The Seahawks in quarters one, two,
and three this year twenty twenty four, they're third. They
(02:17):
have the third lowest run percentage okay, and meaning third
highest pass percentage both in quarters one, two three, and
then just coincidentally in the just for the fourth quarter,
they're also third lowest. So for this year, I totally
agree with you. They've got to run the ball better.
They've got an elite back, So I think I'm one
(02:40):
hundred percent on board with you. But now let's talk
more globally. If we just say, okay, what does the
history of football tell us? And look what I did
is just I took the beginning of twenty twenty two,
so we got two and.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
A half years.
Speaker 5 (02:55):
Why because that was the beginning of GENO. I could
have picked another year. And by the way, I also
have ten years going from fifteen to twenty four. All
hit on that very briefly at the end. So for
the last two and a half years, what we do
is we say, okay, we got the win percentage. Kansas
City Chiefs are the winning this team over the last
two and a half years. All right, And we got
(03:17):
the column sorted for win percentage, the Bills are second,
the Eagles are third, forty nine or.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Fourth, blah blah blah. Then we take the.
Speaker 5 (03:25):
Run percentage in just quarters one, two, and three, the
theory being that, Okay, we want to see what teams
are doing to win. What are they doing in quarters one,
two and three. Well, here's the Chiefs are number one
in win percentage. They're thirty first in run percentage in
the first three quarters. They're checking it all over the yard.
They're scarcely running. The Buffalo Bills are second in win
(03:48):
percentage over that two and a half year period.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
In the first three.
Speaker 5 (03:51):
Quarters they go, they're twenty ninth in the fourth quarter,
their fifth. Let me go back to Kansas City. They're
thirty first, ranked thirty first in run percentage in quarters one,
two and three, but the rank seventh in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles, they're nineteenth in run percentage in the first
(04:12):
three quarters. They're first in run percentage in the fourth. Okay,
I'll go down to the bottom. The Carolina Panthers they're
fourth in run percentage in one two three in quarters
one two three, they're twenty fourth in the fourth quarter.
So we're really looking at that quarter one, two and
three because that's what teams are doing to try and
get ahead, and then they salt the way. And here's
(04:35):
here's the final analysis, because I gave some anecdotals just
to give you an idea. The correlation of your rank
run ranking, your run propensity in the first three quarters
actually has a negative three point fifty eight. That is
what statisticians call a moderate negative correlation, meaning the more
(04:56):
you win, the higher your win number goes up, the
lower you're run percentages in those first three quarters. So
negative three point fifty eight correlation on running in the
first three quarters. How about fourth quarter positive six point
twenty one correlation that is considered a strong correlation. Point
(05:17):
eight or higher would be very strong six twenty one.
That's that's just isolating the fourth quarter. So for the
last two and a half years, we can say, and
that's picking enough data. It's recent enough to be relevant,
but picking enough data, the correlation is overwhelming. And and
then I just said, for you know, for giggles, I'll
(05:38):
just go back.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I can pick.
Speaker 5 (05:39):
I could do this over twenty five years. I could
do over any period of team time you'd select. I
went from twenty fifteen. Just because this is the tenth year.
Kansas City Chiefs again are number one. Guess what they
are in run percentage? Thirty second. Pittsburgh Steelers are number
two in win percentage. They're twenty fifth in running in
the first three quarters, but they're tenth. By the way,
(06:00):
the Chiefs are third in running in the fourth quarter,
but thirty second running in the quarters one, two and three.
Green Bay they're the third winning this team. They're twenty
eighth in run percentage quarters one, two and three. They're
sixteenth in the fourth quarter. My final one, the Bills
are the fourth. I just I'm giving the top four
winning this teams of the last ten years. The Bills
(06:21):
in quarters one, two and three, they're twenty fourth ranked
in running. They're second in the first three quarters. They're
second ranked in the fourth quarter. The correlation over ten
years is this, there's a negative correlation if you want
to run in the first three quarters, a negative two
to seventy three. There's a positive correlation in the fourth
(06:41):
quarter of seven eighty You go from negative two to
seventy three. Think of it like a batting average closer
to the yard to zero. There's no correlation, and so
there's a negative correlation in the run percentage for the
first three quarters. You jump up to a positive seven eighty.
That's a ten year deal. So you can pick any
year you want a reasonable amount of time, over and
(07:02):
over and over again. What is the conclusion in English
without numbers? Teams are are running because they are winning,
not winning because they are running.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
A couple things I appreciate the research. A couple of
things just scream at me when I look at your chart.
One Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback of the Kansasy Chiefs.
Of course they're going to throw more. Josh Allen's the
quarterback of the Buffalo Bills. Of course they're going to
throw more. Joe Burrow thirty second most running in quarters
number one, two and three. Of course they are because
Joe Burro is their quarterback. You look at some of
(07:38):
the worst teams, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears last two and
a half years haven't had quarterbacks. Of Course they're going
to run because they can't throw the ball.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
So that would be exactly the point that would be,
that's exactly the point. But that's how the NFL.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
Right, But the Seahawks don't have Joe Burrow, they don't
have Josh Allen, they don't have Patrick Mahomes, and yet
they're still running at almost throwing it all almost the
rate that those teams are, and this year they're throwing
at a higher rate than those teams are. We have
that we have a mediocre what you identified absolutely correctly
last year at the end of the season as a
dead average NFL quarterback, and for some reason, our offensive
(08:16):
coordinator doesn't think he's a dead average quarterback. He thinks
he's like a top five quarterback in the NFL.
Speaker 5 (08:21):
And that's what confuses Well, the problem is when you
give the ball to Walker six times in neutral down
downs last week and you get nine yards for one
point five, I think he's in a conundrum. But Dick,
you're absolutely right. What jumps out at you, Pat Mahomes
jumps out at you. Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Yes,
(08:44):
Tom Brady. Those are the teams at the top of
the winning percentage, which speaks to this is a passing
league and by the way, I've got columns upon columns,
and I run a correlation on every one. I'd bore
the hell out of here. I already have. But I'm
going to just tell you this. All the running stats
have very low correlation. All, whether it's yards per temp,
(09:05):
whether it's passer rating, blah blah blah, passing has an
overwhelmingly high correlation to winning. What's the speaking complaining English millon?
This is a passing league. You've got to be good
throwing the football and rushing. How well you run the
ball is far less of a correlation to winning.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
And so you're absolutely right, Dick, You're you're, you're, you're.
Speaker 5 (09:30):
Identifying the factors, and but it's refuting the contention. Hey,
we got to run the ball, run the ball, run
the ball to have the highest percentage, because if you
start citing teams that have the highest win percentage and
you say, look at how much they're running, it would
be more accurate to say, cite the highest teams with
the highest win percentage and generally they have the best
(09:52):
quarterback play.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Well, I think it's gonna be interesting to see what
they can pull off this weekend against the Rams, because
as Dick and I have talked about this.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
This RAM defense in front is not what it used
to be.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
Does this feel like the kind of day on Sunday
here where Kenny Walker gets going without DK metcalf out there?
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Where do you?
Speaker 3 (10:09):
What would your kind of gut feel for the if
the Seahawks are going to move the ball against the
RAM defense this Sunday, what does that look like to you?
Speaker 5 (10:16):
Well, it's a Dick's point. I don't think Geno can
just carry a team. So my vision of Seatle's offense
is the same as your vision and everybody else, and
Grubs and McDonald's and everybody. I'm certain of it. You
can't be the third lowest team in terms of your
run propensity in both quarters one, two and three and
(10:37):
in quarter four, right, and so yeah, you have to
you have to somehow find a way to make this work.
And you know, I think you're paying the price of
having an offensive line that is dead last. Seattle Seahawks
are thirty second in the league in cap expenditure towards
(10:58):
the offensive line mentioned the Chiefs their number two. They're
at sixty million, the Sea extra at fifteen. They're literally
right at four times as much the cap, and you
know they've been able to say, hey, look we're gonna
let guys like Tyreek Hill walk. We'll just deal with
kind of a pedestrian receiver group. Keep Travis obviously, but
(11:21):
we got to have a fort to five offensive line.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Dave, you were ringing that bell a long time ago
with Creed Humphrey.
Speaker 5 (11:26):
You were the first guy just saying, dude, what are
we doing with Eskridge draft Greed Humphrey. You were saying
that before the draft, and so the chief Here's the
thing about Pat Mahomes on this, guys, this is an
important game to remember the Kansas City Chiefs. Was that
in twenty they played the or it was nineteen or
twenty the year they played Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
(11:49):
The Buccaneers won thirty eight to nine. Pat Mahomes looked
as average as a guy could possibly look. Again, thirty
eight to nine, he looked overwhelmed, and yet he had
already won an MVP in twenty eighteen. This wasn't We're
not talking about like young oh on his way to developing. No,
this dude was he was hot off the jump after
(12:09):
sitting with the year with the Alex Smith.
Speaker 4 (12:11):
Is that the game he didn't have Eric Fisher his
left tackle the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
As damp I know this.
Speaker 5 (12:17):
See the offensive line needed an overhaul, and and that's
what the Chiefs did. They say, Look, we've got this,
this transcendent talent in Mahomes, but if we can't protect
from him, we'll just sit here and go. You know,
every February, we'll lose Super Bowls by twenty points if
we can't protect him. That guy looked at his he
looked like, you know, Daniel Jones in that Super Bowl Mahomes.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
And so at any event, Yeah, that's part of it.
Speaker 5 (12:47):
But Dick, you're look really smart people over there and
Rent and trying to figure this thing out, like how
much do we get Kenneth Walker? They know Kenneth Walker's
a stud far better in my to my eyes than Charbonney,
potentially elite back. But you know this in ballast cannot continue.
I'll agree with you on that.
Speaker 4 (13:06):
This defense, Hugh. You I just visualize what you told
us at the beginning of the year and how cool
it was to hear you talk about what Baltimore's defense
did last year and how you know these quarterbacks are
largely in the shotgun now and as the ball's getting snapped,
the quarterback's eyes have to go down to catch the football.
And that's when all this shifting goes on in the
Baltimore defense. And I was so excited to see that.
(13:28):
And here we are, half the half the way through
the season. Have we seen that. Does this defense look
at all like the twenty twenty three Baltimore rates.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
Well, they're not tied together on a string like that
that team was, and you know, nor would expect them
to be. I think, you know, it's a relatively completed
defense that if you're thinking too much, you're a little
bit slower. I think the more reps you get, the
more it becomes reflexive.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
I can remember sitting.
Speaker 5 (13:53):
In a in a meeting with John Alway and he
just said, not to be profound, he just kind of
said it off handed.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
He just says, he says, yeah, in this league, you
can't think.
Speaker 5 (14:04):
You gotta react, you know, and so you have to
have enough reps where you are reacting right. And so
I think that that goes with the defense. I mean,
you know, through the first eight games the Ravens in
McDonald's first year, Ravens were points a game nineteenth. The
(14:25):
Seahawks this year are twenty points to drive. The Ravens
were twenty fifth. The Seaks are seventeenth this year. Points
a game, This is two years ago. Yards of game,
the Ravens were twenty fifth. This is through eight games.
Seahawks are twenty second. Yards of play Ravens twenty one,
Seahawks twenty one, last one play success Ravens twenty fifth,
Seahawks twenty two. Seattle has very similar numbers through eight
(14:46):
games this as Mike McDonald had with the Ravens. In fact,
you know a little bit better nominally better. Am I
saying it's going to take hold in the second half
the way it did with the Ravens. I'm not necessar
necessarily saying that, but I'm not saying it's not. Let's
just see how it plays out as as guys are
healthy now and and playing. I'll tell you what dick
(15:07):
to you to your question about the scheming. A lot
of a lot of that stuff played out against Atlanta, right.
I was like, Oh, this is starting this, these disguises
they were fooling. Uh, they were fooling in. Kirk Cousins,
a veteran quarterback and absolutely fooling him. That was right
there on tape. You could see he was doing things
that nobody would do if he if he knew the coverage.
Speaker 6 (15:29):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
And here, let's get a break. Let mee, John Pill,
We've got a break because we're up against it here.
I do want to come back though, and talk some
Dogs at USC, Will Rogers, Demon Williams, the whole thing.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
We'll do that next on ninety three to three kJ
r f M.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Now back to the Washington State Beat Commissions Football Friday
with Sathi and Dick on your home for the NFL
Sports Radio ninety three point three kJ r FM.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
All right here, Mellingray joins us now on the radio show.
Here we let's go away from the Hawks and Rams
for a second. Dogs in USC tomorrow twelve thirty three,
game four to thirty, kickoff right here, ninety three to
three kjr FM. The clamoring for Demon Williams is getting
louder and louder every single week. We actually have had
people suggest that maybe they should pull Will Rogers off
(16:16):
the field when the Huskies get to the twenty yard line,
which obviously sounds ridiculous for a lot of reasons, but
for the let's see more of number two crowd.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
What do you say to them?
Speaker 5 (16:26):
Yeah, well, first of all, I'm really excited about Demon Williams.
I have high hopes for what he can do next year.
I don't think will Rogers is any kind of transcendent talent,
So I kind of understand that our eyes kind of
are not deceiving us. But you know, you look at
the factor as a quarterback, you have Demon Williams is
(16:48):
one hundred and six plays. He's had two completions where
the ball was in the air more than ten yards.
That's one point nine percent. Rogers has forty three. By
the way, about ten percent of the plays that he's
on the field, you get a complete in ten yards more.
So we know he's a more capable pastor. You say, well,
what about the running. Oddly enough, on scrambles, Rogers has
(17:13):
ten scrambles and a seven point two yard average. Demond
has six scrambles and a six point two average. The
sack rate is higher for Rogers five point three percent,
but not significantly. Again, that's sack per dropback. Demon is
four point eight percent versus again Rogers five point three percent.
A couple other things here, yards per play when the
(17:37):
Husk This is the Huskies. Husky's yards per play when
Demand's on the field five point four, when Rogers on
the field six point five. Now let's talk about red
zone because here's the problem for the Huskies offensively. They
are one hundred and twelfth in red zone touchdown percentage
and in terms of yards to points or points to
(17:59):
y yards is the same thing. The Huskies are third
worst in all the group of four. The only teams
that are worse are Houston and Florida State. So they
get a lot of yards and not a lot of points,
which begs a question again getting back to that one
hundred and twelfth in the red zone, what's going on
in the red zone? Okay, So when Demand's on the field,
you get two point six yards per play. When Rogers
(18:23):
on the field, you got three point four. Now let's
go to drives, and I'll just go with red zone drives.
What I did is they say drives that are will
Rogers only, okay, and then drives that are mixed so
on will Rogers only, so we don't see demand for
(18:44):
a single play in the red zone. That the Huskies
points per drive is four point nine. Remember that and
their touchdown percentage is fifty five percent. Now, it's relatively
little sample size, but that the mixed red zone drives,
you got demand on there. You got you go from
four point nine points per drive to three point eight
(19:07):
and your touchdown percentage goes from fifty five percent to
thirty three percent.
Speaker 4 (19:11):
So how many times were there?
Speaker 5 (19:13):
Yeah, but as I said, it's a small there's only
there was only six that were mixed versus twenty that
are Rogers only. So uh, now it's kind of a
chicken or the egg deal, is it?
Speaker 2 (19:26):
Okay?
Speaker 5 (19:27):
Are we are we replacing uh? Are we replacing Rogers
because he's not good? Or are we not good because
we're replacing Rogers?
Speaker 1 (19:36):
You know?
Speaker 5 (19:36):
And look, there's an argument. I get it. It's modern football.
We can't uh, you know, just cite quarterback situations in
the past because it's the day of nil. And if
Jedfish thinks that, hey, we got to keep this guy
happy so he doesn't transfer, what have you.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
There's a factor. Look, that's part of the discussion.
Speaker 5 (19:56):
I get it, and and and and certainly in him
some some reps is important. I think there's a flip
side to it. The continuity piece obviously, and also maybe
the leadership part of it that Rogers hard to get
the guys to respond to him when his own coaches saying, hey,
(20:16):
we don't believe in you down in the red zone
even though you got us here. So I think that
there's good arguments to be made. I'm measured here in
this conversation. I kind of got, as Pete Carroll said,
hormonal on all last week or whatever it was, was
it Monday? And so so look, I'm trying to bring
some facts to the discussion because I know a lot
of people are talking about it.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
I think those are some of the relevant facts.
Speaker 4 (20:39):
Did you ever swap at all with Paul Siicaro in
eighty four?
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Uh?
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Not not that way, not that well, no, not that way.
Speaker 5 (20:46):
In fact, James is when when he and so many
people said, well they they rotated Hobart and Burnell.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
Here's the deal. Mark Burnell was a Rose Bull.
Speaker 5 (20:57):
MVP who got his knee shredded in this ninety one right,
and Don James was a very loyal person. So when
you had that year ninety two, He's sitting there going
I got in Brunell an unbelievable leader, voracious worker, Rose
Bowl MVP, and and yet I've got Hobart who won
a national championship and have never lost a game. I
(21:18):
think he felt like they're both deserving a playing time.
I don't think that's similar, and he certainly didn't do
it in the manner, you know, within a drive his James.
As a general rule, I don't want to say always
because then if it happened once that I'm unaware of,
but I was living twenty blocks from the Unversity Washington
all through that time. What Don James did is he said,
(21:40):
I'm gonna I'm gonna give the guy the first drive
of the second quarter, the entire ride. Everybody kind of
knew it going into it, So by any of it,
I think.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
I think it's a good discussion.
Speaker 5 (21:50):
There's points to be made on both sides, but I
think those stats also bear a little bit of reflection
as we discussed this well.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
I also think your point about the nil era cannot
just be dismissed to mont Williams is not trapped here
right like other guys were, you know, the last you know,
maybe ten to fifteen whatever year. So there is a
little bit of a recruiting element because I guarantee you this.
When the season ends, there's going to be poachers coming
after him, and there may be poachers coming after him already.
I got no idea behind back channels. But this game
(22:17):
tomorrow is a huge game for both teams. I mean,
as new Heizel Saidny is exactly right. Whoever loses this
game is going to be kind of looking, you know,
maybe through a little bit of hell to get to
the postseason. And for Lincoln Riley, they were talking about
doing way more than that. So this is a gigantic
game for them. I mean, what's your gut tomorrow?
Speaker 5 (22:35):
Yeah, well, just a final thought on that, Yes, that's
true about his nil. But then you just say, okay,
in twenty twenty four, how many coaches they're certainly aware
of wanting to keep their young quarterbacks. How many are
doing a rotation like this? You know, I think you know,
if we're just focusing on twenty twenty four. But here's
the thing, here's a fact for you. This is cool.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
In early eighties and mid uh and mid.
Speaker 5 (23:01):
Eighties, uh Don James as the head coach, there was
a period of seven years, seven seasons where we're going
to take the Pac ten and to find a Sunshine
school as the following all four of the California schools,
both of the Arizona schools, so you got six Sunshine
schools in the conference. Don James went seven seasons, did
(23:23):
not lose a single game in Husky Stadium to the
Sunshine Schools, not a single one, not in September, not
in November nine, any time. So what I think a
lot of people noticed in those times is USC that, look,
there's a little bit of a you know, a deva
quality to USC when they're at their worst. When they're
at their best, obviously they're they're the premiere program on
(23:45):
the West Coast, that's undenied. But when they kind of slip,
have they been a program through the years that handle adversity. Well,
I think there's evidence the answer is no. Particularly when
you're having a down season, you got to travel, it's.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Raining on you.
Speaker 5 (24:02):
You know, you kind of accept the idea, Hey, maybe
maybe today's not our day. Let's just get on the
plane and go home. I think there has been a
quality of SC like that. I remember beating them twenty
four to nothing and just you could just see their
body language and it was raining and they didn't want
to be there and it's not just SC again, those
Sunshine schools. So I think you got a good chance
to have that kind of component going on with a
(24:25):
four lost SC team tomorrow.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
How about the matchup, because you know, we've been getting
pounded in the second half by the Iowas of the
world and the Indiana's of the world and just know
quarters Big ten football. Yeah, physically, and this seems to me. Now,
Woody Markskin is a good running back, but you don't
think of USC as just this physical, pounding team. So
is this a better match up a little easier lift
(24:46):
for the Huskies, particularly on defense this week?
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Well, I think that.
Speaker 5 (24:53):
First of all, you mentioned Woody marks Yeah, that guy's
the best back I've seen this side of Boise.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
Wow, I think that guy is this year.
Speaker 5 (25:04):
Well, you know what I mean, you know outside how
about I'm sorry, outside of Boise. I think he's sensational
and you know, if you let him get going, I
mean he's great in the screen game. I mean, that
guy can make you miss. He runs hard, he's got grace.
I think he's a top flight back man. We've seen
a lot of great backs at see. I'm not saying
he's the Marcus Allens and the Charles Whites, and they
(25:25):
got a lot of hardware, you know, in the back
of that end zone with all those guys.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
But uh, he's really really, really freaking good.
Speaker 5 (25:32):
Yeah, and you know, Miller Moss, eh, you know, just
kind of okay. I just think there's something missing there.
And but I think there's something missing in the in
the leadership of the defense in the second I don't know.
I don't really I don't really see the pisson vinegar
jumping out at me, you know.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
So I think they got to play with more emotion,
I really do.
Speaker 5 (25:54):
And they've been better at husky sting him of course, David,
as you mentioned, they've only really played one decent opponent
in Michigan. But I think that their emotions were at
the right place against Michigan.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
They got to be there tomorrow, Yeah, no doubt. All right, man,
great stuff, enjoy it. And yeah, a lot of data
in that.
Speaker 4 (26:10):
Well, you got more.
Speaker 3 (26:11):
You got more charts and grafts to pass along. We'll
bypass the charts. You just give us like a week's
notice and we'll be prepared a right rock and roll
all right with us. We're gonna break You got a
lot more to get to, including Rick new Eisler coming
around six twenty tonight on ninety three to three KJRFL.
Speaker 1 (26:27):
Now back to the Washington State Beat Commissions Football Friday
with Saftie and Dick on your home for the NFL
Sports Radio ninety three point three kjr FM.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
You know, talking to Humilling, man, it's like when you're done,
it's like sex.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
It really is exhausted. You just need a smoke. You've
got to have a smoke.
Speaker 3 (26:52):
When you're done with you you need to just kick
your feet up and just have a smoke and just
relax and stare at the ceiling for about twenty minutes
and just digest everything that just went on. I mean,
my brain is like I just feel like it's just thumping.
In the last two segments after all of that that
demand Williams will Rogers conversation. Do they run because they win?
Do they win because they run? Conversation? It really is
(27:15):
a lot to digest, man, no question about it. So
it's almost one of those things where you want to
hear it once on the radio and then go home
and hear it again on podcasts, Like when I watched
Jackson's probably like me, when you're watching like a Star
Wars movie or a Lord of the Rings film, you
want to go back and watch it again and just
pause the screen and look around right to see all
the stuff in the background you never noticed.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
You will never know when when you watch the first time.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
So when you when you have HU on, my recommendation
is hear them live and then go home and check
out the podcast, and all this stuff that get thought
you heard but you didn't hear, you'll hear it again
for the first time on the podcast. So Seahawks and
Rams on Sunday, obviously, Seahawks, excuse me, Huskies in USC tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
I don't know if we've had a.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
Weekend like this in a long time where this early
in the year early for the Hawks but not early
for the Huskies obviously. I'm talking just early November. Both
teams are playing gigantic games for the psyche of the
fan base and the direction of the football team.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
Both these teams.
Speaker 4 (28:17):
Who's the more important win?
Speaker 3 (28:20):
You know, I feel like we've played this game every week.
I feel like every single win it's warranted.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
By the way. That's because he is pretty easy.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
Because you have two teams that are both you know,
on a teetering I.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
Think the more important win would be the Huskies because
I think if they lose this game, well, Dick, they're
four and four. If they lose this game, they have
to beat Penn State or Oregon to be Bowl eligible.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
I guess the question.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
Is, do you if you could only have one a
bowl game for the Huskies and the fifteen extra praxice
or a playoff game for the Seahawks, which do you take?
Because really that's what we're talking about. I do not
think the Seahawks go to the playoffs. They lose this
game because they are staring four and six right down
the If they lose this game because they got to
at San Francisco after the.
Speaker 2 (29:02):
Bye, we now I get that.
Speaker 3 (29:03):
The only saving grace for me with the Seahawks would
be their division. Right, they lose the game, San Francisco
may not be very good. The Cardinals may not be
very good. They lose the game, they've got what they had,
nine games left to go or eight games left to
go after this, there's plenty of time to turn things around.
The original question you just asked, what is more important
(29:26):
for us as sports fans? If we're equal parts husky
and equal parts Seahawks, which I will tell you.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
That I'm not. I'm more husky than I am Seahawk,
but whatever, I get it.
Speaker 4 (29:35):
But I'm like fifty two. I'm more husky too, but
I'm fifty forty.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
But you're more husky though, right, and the four four percent.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
If you don't think the Seahawks can make a Super
Bowl or play for a championship, you may think, Ah,
the hell with it. Just give me the extra couple
of weeks. Let's get these guys set to go. Like,
for example, if they if they do play in a
bowl game, do we think Will Rogers is going to
play in the ball game.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
I don't know if you will or not. Honest, I
don't know what his NFL mind is thinking. Mario said
on the air there's absolutely no chance.
Speaker 4 (30:05):
When I heard marrow sal I was like, wow, I don't.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
Know if I agree with what Mario said, because I
have no idea what Will Rogers would be thinking. He
might be the kind of guy that would say the
hell with I mean, bow Nicks was the kind of guy,
and he was a first round draft pick and he
played a nothing bowl game against a nothing team in
Liberty so I have no idea.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Do players that aren't like at least relatively high draft
picks to skip out of bowl games? Maybe a bunch
of first, second, third rounder skipping out of it.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
I would be.
Speaker 3 (30:30):
Certain if we went back and looked at all the
quarterbacks and players that have skipped out of ball games.
There's a lot of them that were Day two and
Day three picks. Now maybe they were wrong right about
where they thought they'd go. I have no idea what
will Rogers three pick?
Speaker 2 (30:44):
YEA, yeah, yeah, he could be.
Speaker 6 (30:46):
Yeah, for the numbers he put up in the SEC,
it's not impossible that Will Rogers could be a Day
three pick at all.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
Again, Dick, the point is, I don't know. I don't
know what Will Rogers is thinking. But if he does
skip out, that's two three weeks of practice, depending on
the bowl game, for Devin Williams to get a jump
start on next year. So what is more important? I mean,
I happen to think more of the Seahawks chances than
you do, So I might say the Hawks. But if
(31:11):
you don't believe this team can make a run in
this conference, which I still think is wide open, then
you'd say the Hooks I mean just.
Speaker 4 (31:18):
The vibes we're gonna have on both these teams. I mean,
think about it. A win over USC is always good.
I mean, you get a win over USC, I don't
care what their record is, that's a good just like
a win over Michigan's good. We're gonna have that. We
have that feeling of hey, okay, maybe we're turning the
corner and now we can exhale a little bit because
all we gotta do is beat UCLA and we've made
a bowl game, so all right, we got past that
(31:38):
hurdle that we were worried about.
Speaker 6 (31:40):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:40):
And then with the Seahawks, the same thing. It's like, man, okay,
we can right the ship against this Rams team. Take
your break, get healthy, get practice, get that defense ready
to go. I mean, we're just gonna have such positive
vibes on both these teams. But the one team that loses,
or the two teams that lose, right, oh my god,
it's gonna be rough the next week.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
Well, here's the deal.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
When you say it went over USC is always a
big thing, and I agree with you. The reason why
you and I are saying that's because we're fifty years old.
I mean, they're four and four, eight and five. Yeah,
I had the eleven and three year, four and eight,
five and one, eight and five, five and seven. I
mean USC has not been relevant right like they usually
have been. Yeah, Clay Helton pop for the Sam Darnold
Rose Bowl team that beat Penn State whatever.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
But the days of Pete Carroll are.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
Over at USC, you know, playing for national championships at
least for now. So I don't know if I mean
for me it does, but I don't know. Jackson doesn't
win over USC resonate with you, no, and the younger audience.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Like it does for people like us.
Speaker 6 (32:41):
It's nice, but it's like for me, USC is kind
of just there's not a lot of different. Oregon's the
big one, right like for me, like growing up, for sure,
Oregon is always USC is just kind of because they
I mean, they sputtered for so long. Like when I
was really getting into college football in the early two thousands,
we were dominant, and then USC was dominant, but then
it was the uttering years where it was sort of
just like okay, you know, poking each team with a stick,
(33:03):
do please do something. So USC in that big large
span kind of just became you know another team for me.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
And even in the year they went eleven wins with
Lincoln Riley, they played Tulane and lost in the Cotton Bowl.
Speaker 4 (33:18):
At their splits, they are a much worse team in
November through January than they September October.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
So what about you do you know? I haven't looked.
I haven't looked, but this year this is interesting.
Speaker 4 (33:29):
I mentioned the Action Network.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
They gave me this little nugget too.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
This is the second game in college football in the
last fifteen years, and only the fifth in the last
thirty five years where you've got an undefeated team at
home the underdog against a winless road team. It's only
happened five to four times in thirty five years. But
how about this the home team being the Huskies. Yeah,
they're zero to four against the spread and those other
(33:54):
four games.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
See, that's what concerns me about tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
About that, Like you've always said, I want to play
teams that are down coming off a loss. Nobody's looking
at them, they're getting right, the opponent's getting overhyped. The
fact that USC has not won a road game yet,
the fact that USC has pissed away all these fourth
quarter games.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Scares the hell out of shit. I mean, at some
point that's going to change, yes, I think.
Speaker 4 (34:15):
And at some point the Huskies are going to lose
a home game, and you don't think it's going to
be to Ucla.
Speaker 2 (34:19):
So if it's not to Ucla, it's this one.
Speaker 4 (34:22):
I think.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
If they lose tomorrow, they're done. They're done. Ye, Seahawks
are not typically are technically done.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
That's true.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
If they lose on Sunday, the Huskies for a bowl
game purpose, we know are done.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
They are. So that's that you can only have one.
It's the Dougs.
Speaker 3 (34:36):
I think we just answer the question. Answer the question,
make it happen. For God's says, howbout we just get?
Speaker 2 (34:42):
Can we get both? Is it so much to ask?
One week with two wins, please,
Dave 'Softy' Mahler and Dick Fain News
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