Jon Wilner on NCAA Football Future, Portal Results, CFP Era Ranks

Jon Wilner of The San Jose Mercury News and Wilner Hotline joins Dick Fain and Hugh Millen to discuss the future of college football, winners and losers of the transfer portal that recently closed, school rankings in the College Football Playoff era, and NIL money.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
It's time for our weekly PAC twelveconversation with Senjose Mercury News reporter John Wilner,
brought to you by Simply Seattle.Our friends at simply Seattle dot com
have the most amazing collection of allthings Seattle Seahawks gear UW. Hatson the
largest selection of Sonnics gear anywhere inthe world. Learn more at simply Seattle
dot com. Ah, welcome in, mister Wilner. How are you.

(00:27):
I'm good. Thanks. I'm tryingto picture Sam Hewart in the Utah offense
in the Big twelve. That's alllike blowing my mind. Yeah, he's
a far cry from what he wasused to in the Sheldon Cross fun and
Gun. There is there is noquestion about that. Well, John,
hopefully you grabbed yourself a beverage onFriday night. You kicked up the feet

(00:49):
on the recliner, you turned onour friends Elise Woodward and Nigel Burton on
the PAC twelve network, and Ithink the final broadcast of the PAC twelve
network, and what were your takeawaysfrom the Husky spring game. I gotta
tell you, Dick, I did. I don't have any I was I
was sorry to say, yes,I was at an unbreakable family commitment.

(01:11):
Now, no worries. And tobe honest, you know, I have
watched some spring game action across theformer Pac twelve schools, but it means
less to me than it used tobecause we still don't know what the rosters
are going to be like with thetransfer portal guys coming and going, it's
really much more difficult to get asense for the team that we're going to

(01:34):
see in the fall in these springgames. Well indeed, and so let's
let's talk about something that that doeshave your imagination. I'm reading this is
calling our shot now. Utah beatStanford in the twenty thirty third twenty thirty
three Pack fourteen title game with thesubtitle Here's how college football implodes, and

(01:57):
the conference refer we always love theword implode. Talk about what's what's your
theory here? John? Well?That yeah, that article is actually published
like a day or two before thefinal Pac twelve championship game, and it
was basically, oh, all right, well, I don't know that's social
media still all right? Yeah,this is an old man talking about all

(02:17):
right, it's still relevant because allthe stuff that's transpired since then has moved
us closer, I think to thebrink of the sport going through a dramatic
transformation. And what I argued inthat article is that the super League is
going to form with that are twentyfive thirty schools and everybody else is going

(02:44):
to kind of regionalize around the oldyou know, the old footprints, and
that's how the most of the Packtwelve schools would get back together. Now
I don't I have Washington, Oregonand USC all playing in that super League.
So the packportst that I envisioned inthat article was Washington State, Oregon

(03:04):
State, Uh, you know,seven or so of the schools that are
departing, and then the top tierof the Mountain West. And to me,
uh, it makes much more sensebecause there is no way the current
structure is gonna last. There's toomany things that are gonna blow it apart,
between the legal challenges to the nC double A, the economic pressures

(03:29):
the schools are feeling, the competitivedisadvantage that the ACC and Big twelve are
gonna be at. I mean,it's just it's gonna it's gonna break it.
The only question is win. AndI'm glad you did ask that,
Hugh, because he has had thatpin but actually Softy and I have not
asked him about that about that articlebefore, and he has had it pinned
to pin for a while, andyou would definitely take it down if you

(03:52):
didn't think it was still relevant.So it's definitely still relevant. I mean,
every every month gets us close.And the you know, the stories
that ESPN and Yahoo reported last weekabout the settlement for this gigantic lawsuit is
another, you know, in myopinion, another nail in the coffin of
college football as we know it,because that is going to require schools to

(04:15):
pay twenty to thirty million dollars moreto athletes, right, and how many
schools can afford to do that?And that doesn't even include the nil piece.
So there's more and more economic pressure. And I think there's only a
couple dozens schools that are gonna bewilling and able to compete for a championship

(04:38):
in the top tier of the sport. Now, John, I'm not going
to go so far as to saythis is a what the hell are you
talking about? Wilner topic, butit's borderline and Okay, the post that
you just wrote in the last inthe last day or so I'm sure we'll
We'll have those Husky fans that believethat John Wilner hates the Huskies. They

(04:58):
will just it will just f needmore AMMO into their narrative. Because you
did winners and losers in the transferportal, Oregon a winner, and it
was interesting because one of the namesyou mentioned is why they were a winner
was Jibbar Mohammad. You mentioned himby name, and then you said you
Dubb was a loser, and yetI didn't see the name of phesans price
sock named for the U Dub,which I just asked Hugh yesterday, and

(05:23):
you says he thinks he's got morepotential than Jibbar Mohammad does. So,
so you know, talk to meabout the why you Dub was such a
big loser in the transfer portal.Well, the main reason is because the
offensive line situation, which I amnot convinced that they have rebuilt. The
line got better yesterday though from OhioState it got better yesterday, I guess

(05:47):
it did. But know how muchdoes that guy play? Right? See?
I think the transfer portal can bedeceiving because if you get guys who
had you know they're in their thirdfourth fifth year, and they were highly
rated at high school as high schoolplayers, but they haven't started at their
schools or they've been to multiple places. To me, that's kind of a

(06:10):
clue that, hey, maybe theywere overrated. And I have not seen
the Huskies get collect enough players inthe portal that have resumes that suggest they
could be frontline starters. And that'sespecially true with the with the tackle situation,
right, I do know for afact that the coaches really like him

(06:32):
and that they had to they hadto pony up to get him. So
he is a guy that they thatthey really that they really really they may
have had to pony up to gethim, but I would submit that part
of part of that's because of wherewe are in the cycle here, right,
the top guys are gone spoken for, and so now it's just schools

(06:53):
like Washington that are kind of desperate. Well, the Huskies certainly not the
only ones, but the price isgoing up even for mid level players.
Well, you mentioned Oregon is thebiggest winner, and we'll get to maybe
some of the details of why youthink they're the winner, but it does
strike a topic with me that Iwould love to get your take on and

(07:17):
it's basically the following. I hearcommentator after commentator. Everybody wants to just
trash the modern player. The modernplayer doesn't have the resiliency, you know,
if I'm not starting on departing andso everybody. You know, there's
so many fans that just want toI view it a lazy interpretation. It's

(07:38):
not released. I'm looking at thefacts of Oh, we're just gonna dump
on the players. But let's bringup Oregon. Oregon they have since since
you had Justin Herbert go to theNFL. There was a brief year there
where Tyler Shuck was the quarterback ayear, but he got beat out in
that year by who Anthony Brown,a transfer from Boston College. And then

(08:01):
they brought in Bo Nicks with experience. So Anthony Brown had three years of
ACC experience, bow Knicks had whatfour years of SEC experience. Now they're
bringing in Dylan Gabriel. Meanwhile,all these Oregon recruits, you know,
the Jay Butterfields, the Ty Thompson'sthe highest recruited or quarterback in Oregon history,

(08:22):
and others. They're sitting there saying, wait a minute, I'm not
getting a chance to go on thefield. Because you keep bringing in experienced
guys. So, yes, theplayers have changed in the modern landscape,
but so too have the coaches.And no more illustrated than what's been going
on. Three straight starting quarterbacks forthe Ducks, all experienced guys coming in

(08:45):
from other schools. I mean,I think that there's a lot of places
where they may just start transfer aftertransfer for six, eight, ten years.
I mean, yeah, when willwe see high school recruits who signed
with the school eventually become starting quarterbacksat that school? Right? I mean,
the Huskies just got done with Pennixand now they're going to Rogers,

(09:11):
and you know, Morris got beatout and Heuart left. I think we're
gonna see that all over the place. The position is harder than ever to
manage, right, If you makea call on who's starting at the wrong
time, you know, you couldlose all of your depth to the portal
and so your backup all of asudden there's a former walk on. It's

(09:33):
really hard. But the days ofyou know, guys bide in their time
and for two or three years andthen merging as the starter, those days
are over. I think at alot of schools, John, I don't
know if you saw this Sporting Newspiece last week by Bill Bender, he

(09:54):
ranked the top twelve programs of thecollege football playoff era, and he used
it. He didn't use a subjectiveopinion. He did a statistical formula and
the teams were given points based uponeight categories, national titles, college football
title appearances, college football playoff appearances, New Year's six appearances, winning percentage

(10:18):
all Americans, NFL draft picks,and Heisman Trophy winners. And the UDUB
actually ranked ninth in the college footballplayoff era. So over the last decade,
the UDUB ranked ninth, and theywere higher than any current Pac twelve
team. So my question to youis, I mean, is this,
Should we consider the UDUB a topten program in America because at least by

(10:41):
that statistical formula, which I thinkare fair metrics, they were ninth overall,
And then should we continue to seethem as a top ten ish program
going forward? I think that youcould certainly make the case top ten in
the playoff era, no question.They've had four playoff for New York six

(11:01):
appearances, right, yeah, Imean there's only I looked that up.
There's only five or six schools thathave more and most of them are in
the Big ten of the SEC plusOklahoma. I think so. Yeah,
No, I certainly would now,but it also depends on what are you
judging it by. If it's ifit's competitive success, yes, is it

(11:24):
media evaluation? Then I'm not sureWashington is top ten, But yeah,
I would in that time frame forsure. Going forward, though, I
don't know. I think it's gonnabe hard in the Big Ten, and
it's gonna be hard with getting halfas much money as the other schools in
the Big Ten. Right, we'llsee. I just think the competitive road

(11:48):
for USC, Washington and Oregon hasgotten a lot more difficult, right,
Twelve twelve team playoffs, seven atlargest, So Big ten gets one automatic
bid and let's say two and ahalf or three at large bids every year.
That's fair, is Washington? What'sfair for Washington? When you consider

(12:11):
that they're dealing with Ohio State,Penn State, and Michigan as well.
You just got to beat the otherones every other year, every other year.
I think that's fair. I thinkthat's a total fair expectation every other
year in the college football playoffs.Now, John, let's see, let's
see if they can get there.Well, in your response, you included

(12:31):
that Washington has half the money rightfor the remainder of the decade roughly,
but then you also have the halfthe team this deal. Yes, yeah,
we're aware. So but then youalso, Donny, you you kind
of lumped Washington, Oregon, andUSC altogether as you know, a challenging

(12:52):
future ahead in the Big Ten.So so does USC not have an advantage
because they have twice the money thatWashington and Oregon have In that regard like
where where does the money part ofthis? If you had to isolate that
variable and the challenge for the Huskies, where does the money specifically have an
impact? Well? Hi, youknow, hiring coaches, recruiting resources,

(13:18):
facilities potentially nil, and and youknow paying the players. I mean,
it's all, it's it's all puttingpressure on athletic departments. You know.
I think Oregon can make up thatgap because of until night, USC does
not have that gap. They area full share member of the Big Ten.
But I also think it's going tobe hard for USC. I think

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it's going to be hard for allof those schools, right going going to
those making all the trips and playingin the you know, the inclement weather
in November and just having to dealwith Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio
State. R So I would ifI were ranking which of the far ranking
the four West Coast schools going intothe Big Ten based on who's got the

(14:03):
best chance for success? I meannext year. To me, clearly Oregon
does. But over the span oflet's say the rest of the decade,
I would say USC's got the bestchance. Oregon is neck and neck,
Washington is third, and then UCLAis like eight out of four, eight

(14:24):
out of four. So let's say, let's say we've got a year next
year where Michigan goes nine to zeroconference in Washington and Oregon and USC all
tie for second at seven and two. Who plays in the Big Ten championship
game? Yeah, I'm glad youbrought that up, because I wrote an
article about the Big Ten tiebreaker situationthis week. I spoke to their chief

(14:48):
operating officer, Carrie Kenny about itbecause I'm just fascinated by the math.
Eighteen teams, no divisions, nineconference games, so everybody he is missing
eight teams. And if you've gotthree teams tied for second place and there's
like two common opponents, and there'sno point of differentiation in the results against

(15:11):
those common opponents. You've got togo deep into that tiebreaker formula. So
they are working on something that youknow, they're gonna have it done this
summer, but they're working on somethingthat is gonna, you know, help
them figure out this unprecedented challenge.Is the biggest conference we've ever had.
And the other piece is they don'tonly have to make their tiebreaker formula work

(15:33):
for figuring out who's in second placeto go to the championship game, but
they got to figure it out forthird, fourth, fifty six because your
placement is gonna matter for the CFPat large selections, right, So it's
having four teams tied for fourth place, that's not gonna work. They got
to figure out who who deserves togo to the CFP. That makes it

(15:56):
even more complicated if you just removethe PAC twelve additions to the Big Ten
and you just say, okay,the traditional Big Ten Ohio State, Michigan,
Penn State. Well, Ohio Statehad the conference by the throttle for
eight or nine years and then nowthree straight years that Michigan has beat Ohio

(16:18):
State won the title and of courseHarbaugh moves on. If you're just forecasting
the Big Ten without the Pac twelve, what has Ohio State done? That's
got to be really disturbing in Columbusto see what has happened. Michigan course
has a new coach. How wouldyou expect that to play out in twenty
twenty four If you just isolate Michigan, Ohio State, and possibly a Penn

(16:42):
State or whomever in the Big Ten. Well, I think Ryan Day is
coaching for his job, to behonest, I think Ohio State is tired
of finishing second to Michigan, andnow that Harbaugh's gone, they see a
great opportunity they have. They areloaded, right, all their studs,

(17:02):
just most of their studs are back, including a couple of the Seattle kids.
They got the quarterback from Kansas State. They are absolutely loaded, and
the expectations are high. And Ithink if they don't win the Big Ten,
then Ryan Day's out of a job. I don't know how Sharon Moore
is gonna do a Michigan. It'spossible that they will fall back a little

(17:25):
bit and that could create an opportunityfor some of the West Coast teams.
I'm curious to see how Matt Ruledoes it in Nebraska. I think Matt
Rules a really good coach, andyou know, we'll see if he can
get Nebraska back up to being highlycompetitive. Same with Luke Fickle at Wisconsin.
But to me, it is allthis is Ohio State's year, given

(17:48):
what's going on in Ann Arbor andwhat the Buckeyes have coming back, and
real quick, I know you talkedabout it before, but Ennik the the
Mahi, the offensive lineman from OhoseState transferred to washing Washington. Was he
a projected starter? Like? Washe just wanting more money? Was he
disgruntled with his position? Like?Like, what are the circumstances that led

(18:10):
the Ohio State a lineman to benow a Washington USKI. My understanding is
that he was not a regular starter. I don't know where they you know
where their depth chart is here atthe close the spring practice if he had
been there. He did start inthe ball game. He started the ball
game. I think that was becauseof an injury. But he was not

(18:32):
a regular starter. This is hisHe's going to be a fifth year player.
I think yes, I believe right, And he has not been a
regular starter for them. So isthat now you could still be a hell
of a player if you're a backupat Ohio State. But I'm just wary
of the guys in the portal thatI've been at a school for multiple years

(18:56):
and never broken it become regular starters. I just don't know that you can
count on them. If you're Washington, can you count on them to provide
you with the line play you needto win in the Big Ten? Right?
That's the question, is Washington's lineis gonna be good enough to win,
you know, seven eight games inthe Big Ten? And I don't
see it yet. Now maybe itwill be, but right now I don't

(19:18):
see it. Gray stuff. John, We'll talk to you next week.
Appreciate it. Thanks a lot,guys you've met. John will start joining
us as always. We come back. We did the offense? What does
uh? What do I think?What does Hugh think of the Seahawks defense?
How do we grade them on ourGPA scale? The offense got about
a B minus. We'll see whatthe defense gets next. On ninety three

(19:40):
point three KJRFM,