May 10, 2024 • 9 mins
Joe Biden has basically turned his back on Israel, withholding weapons over a possible attack in Rafah. What will Israel's next move be? Also, life here at home in the U.S. is in a state of chaos with the college anti-Israel protests.
Talking to A&G, military analyst Mike Lyons breaks it down for us.
Hear the entire conversation in a new episode of Armstrong & Getty's Extra Large Podcast....
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
I know that you have paused with your president shipments
of two thousand pound US bombs to Israel due to
concern that they could be used in any offensive on Rafa.
Have those bombs, those powerful two thousand pound bombs been
used to kill civilians in Gaza?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of
those bombs and other ways in which they go after
population centers. And I made it clear that if they
go into Rafa, they haven't gone on Rafa yet. If
they go into Rafa, I'm not supplying the weapons that
have been used historically to deal with Raffa, to deal
(00:38):
with the cities, to deal with that problem.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
So if.
Speaker 4 (00:43):
An ally that you said on Tuesday that we are
rock solid standing behind, if their military judgment is we
need these weapons to win our war, we're going to
say no, no, we don't think so, so we're not
going to let you do that.
Speaker 5 (00:58):
Well, and I despise is the way he phrased at
the way they go into population centers, right, yeah, yeah,
there could get into population centers because that's where Hamas
is Well again, every bit of the wording in that interview.
If you didn't like, if you flew in from outer
space and didn't know the story. You'd think Israel was
the bad guy in this story because nothing bad was
(01:19):
said about Hamas at all or no, there are no
red lines for Hamas apparently, but I wanted to know.
I was just wondering the reality of these weapons. Does
Israel need them to go into Raford? Can they go
into Rafa without them? What else we got to ask
an expert?
Speaker 3 (01:35):
Yeah, so let's.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
Discuss that question the situation in a broader context as
well with Mike Leon's military analyst. Mike, of course, served
the United States military in a variety of capacities throughout
the world through his career.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Mike, it's always a pleasure.
Speaker 6 (01:49):
How are you tank money, guys, Great to be back
with you.
Speaker 5 (01:52):
How significant is this holding back of the heavy bombs.
Speaker 6 (01:56):
It's not from a if you're fighting a city war,
fighting this urban conflict that the Israelis are going to
like to do.
Speaker 7 (02:04):
They're not stopping.
Speaker 6 (02:04):
I mean, this is their only way to defeat Himas
is to defeat the military, get their leadership to surrender that.
This is the this is how wars are won. What
Joe Biden is doing is pure politics. It's almost signaling
to political forces in our country. And to hear a
president make the kind of comments he's made about not
(02:26):
killing another thirty thousand civilians or so, it's just nonsense.
I mean, the policy is incoherent, it's asides a moral
from a military perspective. But the Israelis are faced with
a situation that their survival is at stake.
Speaker 7 (02:41):
So I think they're.
Speaker 6 (02:43):
Going to recalculate they might hold back a few more weeks,
let's say, but when the time comes, they will likely
go into Rafa. No one's dropping two thousand pound bombs
on city centers there and killing civilians wantly. The Israelis
never not doing that, but they're not stopped until they
can completely eradicate the military threat. And there's still battalions
(03:04):
sitting inside that city that they're hiding because that's that's
the last fashion of the place where they can escape to.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
I don't want to make this a Biden bashing conversation necessarily,
but you're you're the you know, military historian, and you
participated in some of these things. So one thing Joe
Biden said yesterday is he'd warned bb Net and Yahoo
don't do what we've done. We went after Bin Lauden
and then we went into Afghanistan with all these troops
and we went into a rock with all these troops
(03:31):
and and don't do the same thing. And we were
trying to figure out what is the parallel between that
and going into Rafin getting Homas out.
Speaker 6 (03:39):
So it's totally different. I just wonder who's putting these
thoughts and words in Joe Biden's mouth as he spouts
them out like that and yesterday, I mean and things
he says, because it's not the same analogy. We went
after Asamo bin Laden for the attack that was made
on nine to eleven, and.
Speaker 7 (03:55):
It took us almost ten eleven years, the.
Speaker 6 (03:57):
Same amount of time it took the land of Man
on the moon. It took the to capture, kill and
capture him. But the Colon Powell rule once you you know,
kind of you break it, you buy it. You know,
we tried to stand up a government Afghanistan. Then we
got distracted. We got distracted inside of a rock that
was a kind of a separate mission. So you look
back and in the United States definitely committed mistakes in
(04:18):
those wars there, but it's not.
Speaker 7 (04:19):
The same thing.
Speaker 6 (04:20):
Israel is fighting for its existence, it's fighting an enemy
on three fronts. This is not the same thing as that.
Right now, Hamas is just hoping that the United States
will continue to treat Israel the way they're treating them,
and because they're going to survive. They're going to survive
another day. They get a ceasefire, they got a six
weeks cease fire. They're going to do something to try
to survive, and that's that's their goal here. And if
(04:43):
they do, then Israel doesn't win this war. And politically,
the Israeli leaders now look bad and Israel now continues
to spiral downward.
Speaker 5 (04:51):
Wow, it was my speculation that the Biden administration is
just desperate to get the accord going with the Saudis
and the Emeran and that they're essentially saying, Israel, look,
what's in our best interests is for y'all to calm
down for a little while.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Do you think that's more or less accurate?
Speaker 6 (05:11):
No, for sure, this is this is a political quid
pro quo. Right did we have the last president get
pieced over this? I mean, trying to do me a favor,
stay out of Rapa while I come the political forces
on my side here with regard to the situation here,
I'm not seeing the difference here that you want to
see a good analogy. There's a good analogy there, But
the bottom line is there's no legitimacy within the Biden
(05:34):
administration to do that, to create that diplomatic kind of environment.
They're not not Anthony Blincoln. Not when you whip saws
back and forth between support for Israel and support for Hermas.
Speaker 7 (05:45):
Not when we don't. We don't have the.
Speaker 6 (05:47):
Same level of credit credibility with regard to what actually
we're going to do when who we're going to support.
And the political forces unfortunately against Joe Biden right now,
are such that they're threatened US national security.
Speaker 7 (06:01):
Look at that.
Speaker 6 (06:02):
If anybody doesn't think this is a challenge or a
problem inside our country with these pro Palestinian protests, you're
not paying attention way worse than white supremacist I mean,
where's the FBI, where's everybody you know concerned about this?
These college campuses are these places where these things are happening.
The Democrats are going to have this problem in the
summertime at their convention, and they're trying to do everything
(06:22):
they can to keep that from happening. But there's there's
this clear cross blurring up the line between national security,
what's investments of the United States, and what's going on
politically right now, and right now the Democrats and Joe
Biden particular, whatever's putting the word in his mouth, are
choosing the political side of this.
Speaker 4 (06:40):
Since you said BB is going to go in no
matter what, maybe in a couple of weeks, but it's
still going to happen.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
What is that going to look like?
Speaker 4 (06:47):
How likely is it that they're able to wipe out
those last couple of battalions, you know, get the Osama
bin laden of Homas and be able to feel like
they won.
Speaker 6 (06:58):
Well, I think they're going to have to capture the
leader Sinwar. They're going to have to do show extensive
amount of kill and capture of the leadership there. And
that's that's one thing that they've tried to work on.
Continue to destroy the tunnels. I'd say this kind of
court on the kind of offensive operation where the city
is totally surrounded, they'll let they'll probably start to limit
(07:20):
humanitarian supplies that go in. There'll be somewhat of a
feeds there. Hamas won't be able to hold off there
for long, and we're waiting for the tipping point for
gods and citizens to recognize that Hamas is not acting
in their best interests. But Israel is going to win
this war conventionally, kind of the good old fashioned way.
They're going to find somebody that says we surrender and
(07:41):
the war's going to stop it. Then they're not stopping
just because the United States is telling them to stop.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
Well, and on that topic, you have an enemy that
began the fighting has vowed unequivocally to continue it until
you're wiped off the face of the earth. And the
Biden administrations of session with what's escalatory is really frustrating.
And it's not like you know, as as a guy
(08:08):
far too old and sore of back to go fight,
I don't want to be talk show warmonger guy. It's
a cliche, but you know there's some people who are
guilty of it. But at the same time, if you
intend to win a conflict, and there's plainly a conflict
in front of us, you're gonna have to escalate.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
That's what winning is.
Speaker 6 (08:28):
Yeah, And we take we've made assumptions about things that
are just aren't true because we say they are for example,
you know you can't use force to change the ideology.
History show that, yes, you can use force to change ideology.
If you escalate that force, I think you're going to
see at the end of this Israel taking.
Speaker 7 (08:46):
Much more control over gods.
Speaker 6 (08:48):
They're going to have to This two state solution is
now off the table from their perspective. I know that
our our administration still thinks that's some kind of possibility.
Speaker 7 (08:56):
But the challenge is.
Speaker 6 (08:57):
Until the United States puts pressure on tar and other
governments that are housing these Hamas leaders, you know, they
continue to control and operate this territory from outside Goslam.
So that's that's part of the problem. And if if
we can't, if we we should be putting pressure on
Hamas and the leaders of these other countries in order
to get our hostages back number.
Speaker 7 (09:18):
One, and then then having them not.
Speaker 6 (09:20):
To have the influence inside of the city, then then
maybe you'll see that Israel would would acquiesce and have
new leadership for the thousand people, for the Palestinian people there.
But until that happens, you're not you're not seeing any change.
Israel is going to continue to just raise the earth
down there.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
Military analyst Mike Lyons, Mike, thanks so much. Really interesting.
We appreciate it.
Speaker 7 (09:40):
Thanks guys, thanks for having me
I know that you have paused with your president shipments
of two thousand pound US bombs to Israel due to
concern that they could be used in any offensive on Rafa.
Have those bombs, those powerful two thousand pound bombs been
used to kill civilians in Gaza?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of
those bombs and other ways in which they go after
population centers. And I made it clear that if they
go into Rafa, they haven't gone on Rafa yet. If
they go into Rafa, I'm not supplying the weapons that
have been used historically to deal with Raffa, to deal
(00:38):
with the cities, to deal with that problem.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
So if.
Speaker 4 (00:43):
An ally that you said on Tuesday that we are
rock solid standing behind, if their military judgment is we
need these weapons to win our war, we're going to
say no, no, we don't think so, so we're not
going to let you do that.
Speaker 5 (00:58):
Well, and I despise is the way he phrased at
the way they go into population centers, right, yeah, yeah,
there could get into population centers because that's where Hamas
is Well again, every bit of the wording in that interview.
If you didn't like, if you flew in from outer
space and didn't know the story. You'd think Israel was
the bad guy in this story because nothing bad was
(01:19):
said about Hamas at all or no, there are no
red lines for Hamas apparently, but I wanted to know.
I was just wondering the reality of these weapons. Does
Israel need them to go into Raford? Can they go
into Rafa without them? What else we got to ask
an expert?
Speaker 3 (01:35):
Yeah, so let's.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
Discuss that question the situation in a broader context as
well with Mike Leon's military analyst. Mike, of course, served
the United States military in a variety of capacities throughout
the world through his career.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Mike, it's always a pleasure.
Speaker 6 (01:49):
How are you tank money, guys, Great to be back
with you.
Speaker 5 (01:52):
How significant is this holding back of the heavy bombs.
Speaker 6 (01:56):
It's not from a if you're fighting a city war,
fighting this urban conflict that the Israelis are going to
like to do.
Speaker 7 (02:04):
They're not stopping.
Speaker 6 (02:04):
I mean, this is their only way to defeat Himas
is to defeat the military, get their leadership to surrender that.
This is the this is how wars are won. What
Joe Biden is doing is pure politics. It's almost signaling
to political forces in our country. And to hear a
president make the kind of comments he's made about not
(02:26):
killing another thirty thousand civilians or so, it's just nonsense.
I mean, the policy is incoherent, it's asides a moral
from a military perspective. But the Israelis are faced with
a situation that their survival is at stake.
Speaker 7 (02:41):
So I think they're.
Speaker 6 (02:43):
Going to recalculate they might hold back a few more weeks,
let's say, but when the time comes, they will likely
go into Rafa. No one's dropping two thousand pound bombs
on city centers there and killing civilians wantly. The Israelis
never not doing that, but they're not stopped until they
can completely eradicate the military threat. And there's still battalions
(03:04):
sitting inside that city that they're hiding because that's that's
the last fashion of the place where they can escape to.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
I don't want to make this a Biden bashing conversation necessarily,
but you're you're the you know, military historian, and you
participated in some of these things. So one thing Joe
Biden said yesterday is he'd warned bb Net and Yahoo
don't do what we've done. We went after Bin Lauden
and then we went into Afghanistan with all these troops
and we went into a rock with all these troops
(03:31):
and and don't do the same thing. And we were
trying to figure out what is the parallel between that
and going into Rafin getting Homas out.
Speaker 6 (03:39):
So it's totally different. I just wonder who's putting these
thoughts and words in Joe Biden's mouth as he spouts
them out like that and yesterday, I mean and things
he says, because it's not the same analogy. We went
after Asamo bin Laden for the attack that was made
on nine to eleven, and.
Speaker 7 (03:55):
It took us almost ten eleven years, the.
Speaker 6 (03:57):
Same amount of time it took the land of Man
on the moon. It took the to capture, kill and
capture him. But the Colon Powell rule once you you know,
kind of you break it, you buy it. You know,
we tried to stand up a government Afghanistan. Then we
got distracted. We got distracted inside of a rock that
was a kind of a separate mission. So you look
back and in the United States definitely committed mistakes in
(04:18):
those wars there, but it's not.
Speaker 7 (04:19):
The same thing.
Speaker 6 (04:20):
Israel is fighting for its existence, it's fighting an enemy
on three fronts. This is not the same thing as that.
Right now, Hamas is just hoping that the United States
will continue to treat Israel the way they're treating them,
and because they're going to survive. They're going to survive
another day. They get a ceasefire, they got a six
weeks cease fire. They're going to do something to try
to survive, and that's that's their goal here. And if
(04:43):
they do, then Israel doesn't win this war. And politically,
the Israeli leaders now look bad and Israel now continues
to spiral downward.
Speaker 5 (04:51):
Wow, it was my speculation that the Biden administration is
just desperate to get the accord going with the Saudis
and the Emeran and that they're essentially saying, Israel, look,
what's in our best interests is for y'all to calm
down for a little while.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Do you think that's more or less accurate?
Speaker 6 (05:11):
No, for sure, this is this is a political quid
pro quo. Right did we have the last president get
pieced over this? I mean, trying to do me a favor,
stay out of Rapa while I come the political forces
on my side here with regard to the situation here,
I'm not seeing the difference here that you want to
see a good analogy. There's a good analogy there, But
the bottom line is there's no legitimacy within the Biden
(05:34):
administration to do that, to create that diplomatic kind of environment.
They're not not Anthony Blincoln. Not when you whip saws
back and forth between support for Israel and support for Hermas.
Speaker 7 (05:45):
Not when we don't. We don't have the.
Speaker 6 (05:47):
Same level of credit credibility with regard to what actually
we're going to do when who we're going to support.
And the political forces unfortunately against Joe Biden right now,
are such that they're threatened US national security.
Speaker 7 (06:01):
Look at that.
Speaker 6 (06:02):
If anybody doesn't think this is a challenge or a
problem inside our country with these pro Palestinian protests, you're
not paying attention way worse than white supremacist I mean,
where's the FBI, where's everybody you know concerned about this?
These college campuses are these places where these things are happening.
The Democrats are going to have this problem in the
summertime at their convention, and they're trying to do everything
(06:22):
they can to keep that from happening. But there's there's
this clear cross blurring up the line between national security,
what's investments of the United States, and what's going on
politically right now, and right now the Democrats and Joe
Biden particular, whatever's putting the word in his mouth, are
choosing the political side of this.
Speaker 4 (06:40):
Since you said BB is going to go in no
matter what, maybe in a couple of weeks, but it's
still going to happen.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
What is that going to look like?
Speaker 4 (06:47):
How likely is it that they're able to wipe out
those last couple of battalions, you know, get the Osama
bin laden of Homas and be able to feel like
they won.
Speaker 6 (06:58):
Well, I think they're going to have to capture the
leader Sinwar. They're going to have to do show extensive
amount of kill and capture of the leadership there. And
that's that's one thing that they've tried to work on.
Continue to destroy the tunnels. I'd say this kind of
court on the kind of offensive operation where the city
is totally surrounded, they'll let they'll probably start to limit
(07:20):
humanitarian supplies that go in. There'll be somewhat of a
feeds there. Hamas won't be able to hold off there
for long, and we're waiting for the tipping point for
gods and citizens to recognize that Hamas is not acting
in their best interests. But Israel is going to win
this war conventionally, kind of the good old fashioned way.
They're going to find somebody that says we surrender and
(07:41):
the war's going to stop it. Then they're not stopping
just because the United States is telling them to stop.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
Well, and on that topic, you have an enemy that
began the fighting has vowed unequivocally to continue it until
you're wiped off the face of the earth. And the
Biden administrations of session with what's escalatory is really frustrating.
And it's not like you know, as as a guy
(08:08):
far too old and sore of back to go fight,
I don't want to be talk show warmonger guy. It's
a cliche, but you know there's some people who are
guilty of it. But at the same time, if you
intend to win a conflict, and there's plainly a conflict
in front of us, you're gonna have to escalate.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
That's what winning is.
Speaker 6 (08:28):
Yeah, And we take we've made assumptions about things that
are just aren't true because we say they are for example,
you know you can't use force to change the ideology.
History show that, yes, you can use force to change ideology.
If you escalate that force, I think you're going to
see at the end of this Israel taking.
Speaker 7 (08:46):
Much more control over gods.
Speaker 6 (08:48):
They're going to have to This two state solution is
now off the table from their perspective. I know that
our our administration still thinks that's some kind of possibility.
Speaker 7 (08:56):
But the challenge is.
Speaker 6 (08:57):
Until the United States puts pressure on tar and other
governments that are housing these Hamas leaders, you know, they
continue to control and operate this territory from outside Goslam.
So that's that's part of the problem. And if if
we can't, if we we should be putting pressure on
Hamas and the leaders of these other countries in order
to get our hostages back number.
Speaker 7 (09:18):
One, and then then having them not.
Speaker 6 (09:20):
To have the influence inside of the city, then then
maybe you'll see that Israel would would acquiesce and have
new leadership for the thousand people, for the Palestinian people there.
But until that happens, you're not you're not seeing any change.
Israel is going to continue to just raise the earth
down there.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
Military analyst Mike Lyons, Mike, thanks so much. Really interesting.
We appreciate it.
Speaker 7 (09:40):
Thanks guys, thanks for having me
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