August 17, 2021 • 13 mins
The Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer joins Armstrong & Getty to help make sense of President Biden's catastrophic departure from Afghanistan--what it means to our allies and adversaries alike.
Make sure to read The Eurasia Group's updated TOP RISKS 2020: CORONAVIRUS EDITION.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington
Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Jetty Armstrong and Jetty Show. Uh.
You know, in many ways, I think of John Kennedy
and the Bay of Picks. Uh. Uh, you know, it
unfolded quickly, and uh, the president thought that everything would
(00:22):
be fine and that was not the case. But President
Kennedy took responsibility for what took place. And I strongly
recommend the President Biden that he take responsibility admit the
mistakes that were made. That's Leon Panetta, former Secretary Defense
and Secretary ran the CIA. Um. I'm not you know,
(00:44):
for domestic consumption that sort of stuff is important. I'm
not sure on the global stage if any of that
matters right now. Yeah, the President is taking it from
all sides. But yeah, let's talk about the global effects.
Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group. They helped
business leaders, policy makers, and folks like us understand the
world around us. In Bremer joins us, see and how
are you sir? Hey gonna be back with you guys.
(01:07):
You're one of the many Twitter feeds I followed a
lot over the weekend trying to get kind of a
global perspective of this. How is the rest of the world,
whether it's the Middle East or China gonna interpret what's
happened in the last week. Oh the China. Chinese are
doing donuts right now saying the US is in decline
and if you're Taiwan, this shows you you can't trust
(01:29):
the Americans and we're going to take over soon. I mean,
you know that they are leaning into a debacle on
the ground and saying that that reflects American weakness. Um.
The Allies, of course, are are deeply concerned because they
were not consulted. They fought with the Americans side by
side in Afghanistan for twenty years, but when it came
(01:49):
time to leave, that decision was made unilaterally on an
internal domestic policy review by Biden, and they're not happy
about that. UM. So know, when you're right, I'm Biden
is taking it from all sides right now. There is
no easy way to lose a war. And you know,
I do think that Biden may makes a compelling case
(02:11):
for why he made the decision to leave, and by
the way, a popular decision at home in the United States.
But but making that decision and then actually affecting that decision.
On the ground are two very different things, and it's
very clear from the last seventy two hours that the
United States has made some very big mistakes on the ground.
(02:32):
There's a tendency to make grand, grand pronouncements when something
like this occurs. It's a good way to get the
air and clicks in the rest of it. Uh, do
you think when the dust settles a year or two
from now, this is going to be seen as a
major global development or just another chapter in Afghanistan's long
troubled history. It's not over yet. Um. I think that
(02:52):
as long as no Americans are killed as we close
this um to be a big spike in attention on
the nine eleven anniversary when the Taliban are parading all
of the American equipment material that they've stolen and you know,
the embassy's closed and Talidan flags on top of it,
(03:15):
and that that's gonna be bad in the United States
and globally. But that's not you know, you asked me
midterm elections, is Afghanistan playing a big role? The answer
is no, as long as it doesn't get worse. But
you know, you still have five ten thousand Americans on
the ground right now in Afghanistan, and you guys will
forgive me if I don't trust the Taliban when they
(03:39):
say that they're not going to interfere with the ability
of Americans to get out. I'd rather get the Americans
out first and then then then say, Okay, it's done.
Because if we end up with a hostage type situation
like we did with the American embassy in Tehran and
seventy nine, this will be the end of Biden's presidency.
(03:59):
He will he will have destroyed it. And I don't
think that's going to happen, but it's not like a
one percent chance. There's a real possibility of that. So
I mean, let's just recognize that we're still in it
right now. How How would Taiwan, for instance, not look
at this and think, wow, I'm not sure they're gonna
come to our defense. Well, there's a big difference between
(04:22):
Taiwan and say, Afghanistan. I put Afghanistan more in the
Ukraine and Georgia camp. These are countries that, irrespective of
what we say, we don't actually care about because we
don't have significant national interests at play. And so when
they get invaded by the Russians in the case of
Ukraine or Georgia, or when the Taliban takes over in
(04:43):
the case of Afghanistan, we just pull out. We say, hey, sorry,
We'll support human rights and maybe we'll put some sanctions on.
But that's it. I mean, if the Chinese were to
take Taiwan, I want to be very clear um our
our industry in the United States. I mean, you know,
anything from atomotives to home appliances to advanced technology. We
(05:03):
don't have semi conductors. Of all semi conductors exported globally
come from Taiwan. There is this is a critical national
interest in the United States and there is no question
in my mind that we would defend it. Uh and
and that that speaks to the US military engagement, to
the arms sales, to the to the fawn ops, the
freedom of navigation operations we have in the region. And
(05:26):
to be clear, the Chinese government is very well aware
of that. So there is a difference between the propaganda
that we're hearing from the Chinese government right now that
trumpets American declinism and the reality of the balance of power,
the strategic ambiguity, which is the name of that policy
that we have with taiwan Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group,
(05:47):
is on the line Ian the administration, the President himself
look very shaky to us right now, not inspiring a
lot of confidence in you know, our national security situation.
What do you think they're saying in the parlors of
Chairman Shire or in Moscow or Tehran about Biden in
the administration. Yeah, they think that he's made a big mistake.
(06:09):
This is the first foreign policy crisis of his administration,
and it's largely self inflicted. Um and they think he
looks weak. And they know that the credibility of American commitments,
which had been shaken under Trump's America First administration, has
now been further damaged under Biden. Despite the fact that
(06:30):
Biden is all about America is back. But let's also
be clear that China has big problems right now. The
third largest port in the world is presently partially closed
because of delta variant in China, and their vaccines don't
really work against delta variant ours do in the United States.
(06:51):
They've got big debt problems, they've got big demographic problems.
I mean, they're increasingly shutting down international I p O
s because they can't control their local corporations, even though
the private sector drives most of their efficiency. So I mean,
if you ask United States, right and uh, and that
that continues to be the case. It's funny you bring
(07:13):
up COVID and that this is the first story that
has bumped COVID off the front page since COVID started.
And I mean we've we've done a couple of days
where we barely mentioned COVID. What what is the COVID
story globally right now? Well, the global story today, and
it's quite linked to Afghanistan, is that the United States
(07:34):
in the coming days is going to approve um third
booster shots for the entire American population that has already
been vaccinated eight months after the second vaccination, after the
course has been completed. And the World Health Organization is
(07:56):
strongly opposing the United States doing that while most of
the global population hasn't gotten their first jab yet. And
they're saying, look, if you want to give you know,
your immuno compromise people booster shots. Fine, that's a tiny
percentage of the population. But this is a global problem.
We've got to pay attention to the rest of the world.
And the by administration's response is, actually, I'm not president
(08:18):
of the world. I'm just President of the United Staiths,
and I really don't care about what happens in these
other countries. Now he's not saying it that way, and
we're providing donations to other countries. But to be very clear,
right the rest of the world is looking at the
US and is increasingly sensing that American interests, irrespective of
(08:39):
who the president is, increasingly do not align well with
the interests of their own countries or the world as
a whole. A bit of a general question, when do
you see the world's economic supply chain situation getting back
to something close to normal? Um, you know, I think
that the issue is your still going to see a
(09:01):
lot of rolling disruptions because countries are responding to COVID
in such different ways, and because the delta variant has
so much spread. So I mean China, the supply chain
for China. You'll remember, over a year ago was almost
fully back up and running. This was second quarter two
thousand twenty, and today you're seeing rolling disruptions again. Why
(09:25):
Because the Chinese government has zero tolerance for spread, especially
with vaccines that don't work. Very well. There's still a
lot of spread that we're going to see in middle
and lower income economies, and that means that we're not
going to have uh, you know, international tourism back to
what it was. We aren't going to have those citizens
(09:45):
allowed to travel to other countries where they can make
more money and send remittances back home. So I think
that supply chain will still see rolling disruptions probably until
you know, mid to late at a minimum. Well, the
reason I asked is because my wife and I have
been waiting for our dining room set for six months.
(10:05):
Do you have any idea where it is? Where's it
coming from? Probably China? I don't even know. You wantn't
you get a van and go to North Carolina like
a real American buy something that Americans decent picked it out?
Are you teating your wife? I mean, yeah, who's in
charge in your household? We really have to ask that.
(10:30):
Um My, My final question flitted out of my head
because I've got senior moment happening. What was it about?
It was about? So is Afghanistan justice? So we're you know,
how however messy this is gonna be over the last
couple of weeks assuming we get most people out and
everything like that, is Afghanistan just gonna be a hellhole
run by these fundamentalist nut jobs that brutalize the population
(10:54):
for the near future. Uh well, I mean is in
the sense that they it's easy for the Taliban to
take over the country, they're not going to be able
to run it very well. I mean, the northern territories
will still be effectively run by warlords, bill engage in
lots of you know, rapacious taxation of local farmers. Uh.
(11:16):
And the farmers will have to grow opium so that
they can make enough money to be able to pay it.
But they're not going to be governed by the Taliban.
The Taliban will govern you pockets of the country and
some cities and kabul Um. And so when you see
the Chinese thing, they're gonna come in. They're gonna befriend
these guys. Maybe they'll invest back. Before nine eleven, Unakal
(11:38):
was trying to build a pipeline that was going to
connect Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan. It was the geo politically
stupidest pipeline everyone anyone had ever thought of trying to build.
It never happened. Um. Now we say we're talking about oil,
we're talking about rare earths, and they're trillions of dollars
or rare earths are located underneath Afghanistan. The only problem
that you have to actually invest there, and the Chinese
(12:01):
are going to find that equally challenging over the long term,
Taliban's gonna have high taxes. The Opian fathers need to
pay their fair share, beautiful, Ian Bremer, President of your
Asia Group. Ian, we always appreciate when you carve off
a couple of minutes for us. Thanks a million, I
think you guess. Thanks, We've got a hundred airs and
thousand airs. I need to pay their fair share. How
(12:25):
many goats does one man need? Oh geez, By the way,
I just got a text from Judy North Carolina. Yeah,
I figured you bought real furniture or not the Chinese
furniture that I usually get. Yeah, I got like a
couple of real pieces of furniture. They're way better. They
cost a lot more, but they're way better, I mean,
and if your kids want them, they'll be in great
(12:47):
shape when your kids are you know of age, although
from what I hear, you know generation Z they sit
on the floor they eat off the cardboard boxes they
used for use for the furniture. The key difference between
real furniture and cheap crappy furniture. Cheap crappy furniture, you
reach under it to move, you're gonna get jabbed with
a staple. Real furniture, you are not like China. That
(13:11):
is the difference. I got a big old scar on
my forearm. I don't know if you can see it.
It's faded a little bit, but it looks like a
suicide attempt because I reached behind a cheap crappy sofa
in the hotel room to unplug my charger and it
just sliced my entire four arm open. Cheap crappy furniture China,
uh text line four one five two nine five kftc
From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington
Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Jetty Armstrong and Jetty Show. Uh.
You know, in many ways, I think of John Kennedy
and the Bay of Picks. Uh. Uh, you know, it
unfolded quickly, and uh, the president thought that everything would
(00:22):
be fine and that was not the case. But President
Kennedy took responsibility for what took place. And I strongly
recommend the President Biden that he take responsibility admit the
mistakes that were made. That's Leon Panetta, former Secretary Defense
and Secretary ran the CIA. Um. I'm not you know,
(00:44):
for domestic consumption that sort of stuff is important. I'm
not sure on the global stage if any of that
matters right now. Yeah, the President is taking it from
all sides. But yeah, let's talk about the global effects.
Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group. They helped
business leaders, policy makers, and folks like us understand the
world around us. In Bremer joins us, see and how
are you sir? Hey gonna be back with you guys.
(01:07):
You're one of the many Twitter feeds I followed a
lot over the weekend trying to get kind of a
global perspective of this. How is the rest of the world,
whether it's the Middle East or China gonna interpret what's
happened in the last week. Oh the China. Chinese are
doing donuts right now saying the US is in decline
and if you're Taiwan, this shows you you can't trust
(01:29):
the Americans and we're going to take over soon. I mean,
you know that they are leaning into a debacle on
the ground and saying that that reflects American weakness. Um.
The Allies, of course, are are deeply concerned because they
were not consulted. They fought with the Americans side by
side in Afghanistan for twenty years, but when it came
(01:49):
time to leave, that decision was made unilaterally on an
internal domestic policy review by Biden, and they're not happy
about that. UM. So know, when you're right, I'm Biden
is taking it from all sides right now. There is
no easy way to lose a war. And you know,
I do think that Biden may makes a compelling case
(02:11):
for why he made the decision to leave, and by
the way, a popular decision at home in the United States.
But but making that decision and then actually affecting that decision.
On the ground are two very different things, and it's
very clear from the last seventy two hours that the
United States has made some very big mistakes on the ground.
(02:32):
There's a tendency to make grand, grand pronouncements when something
like this occurs. It's a good way to get the
air and clicks in the rest of it. Uh, do
you think when the dust settles a year or two
from now, this is going to be seen as a
major global development or just another chapter in Afghanistan's long
troubled history. It's not over yet. Um. I think that
(02:52):
as long as no Americans are killed as we close
this um to be a big spike in attention on
the nine eleven anniversary when the Taliban are parading all
of the American equipment material that they've stolen and you know,
the embassy's closed and Talidan flags on top of it,
(03:15):
and that that's gonna be bad in the United States
and globally. But that's not you know, you asked me
midterm elections, is Afghanistan playing a big role? The answer
is no, as long as it doesn't get worse. But
you know, you still have five ten thousand Americans on
the ground right now in Afghanistan, and you guys will
forgive me if I don't trust the Taliban when they
(03:39):
say that they're not going to interfere with the ability
of Americans to get out. I'd rather get the Americans
out first and then then then say, Okay, it's done.
Because if we end up with a hostage type situation
like we did with the American embassy in Tehran and
seventy nine, this will be the end of Biden's presidency.
(03:59):
He will he will have destroyed it. And I don't
think that's going to happen, but it's not like a
one percent chance. There's a real possibility of that. So
I mean, let's just recognize that we're still in it
right now. How How would Taiwan, for instance, not look
at this and think, wow, I'm not sure they're gonna
come to our defense. Well, there's a big difference between
(04:22):
Taiwan and say, Afghanistan. I put Afghanistan more in the
Ukraine and Georgia camp. These are countries that, irrespective of
what we say, we don't actually care about because we
don't have significant national interests at play. And so when
they get invaded by the Russians in the case of
Ukraine or Georgia, or when the Taliban takes over in
(04:43):
the case of Afghanistan, we just pull out. We say, hey, sorry,
We'll support human rights and maybe we'll put some sanctions on.
But that's it. I mean, if the Chinese were to
take Taiwan, I want to be very clear um our
our industry in the United States. I mean, you know,
anything from atomotives to home appliances to advanced technology. We
(05:03):
don't have semi conductors. Of all semi conductors exported globally
come from Taiwan. There is this is a critical national
interest in the United States and there is no question
in my mind that we would defend it. Uh and
and that that speaks to the US military engagement, to
the arms sales, to the to the fawn ops, the
freedom of navigation operations we have in the region. And
(05:26):
to be clear, the Chinese government is very well aware
of that. So there is a difference between the propaganda
that we're hearing from the Chinese government right now that
trumpets American declinism and the reality of the balance of power,
the strategic ambiguity, which is the name of that policy
that we have with taiwan Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group,
(05:47):
is on the line Ian the administration, the President himself
look very shaky to us right now, not inspiring a
lot of confidence in you know, our national security situation.
What do you think they're saying in the parlors of
Chairman Shire or in Moscow or Tehran about Biden in
the administration. Yeah, they think that he's made a big mistake.
(06:09):
This is the first foreign policy crisis of his administration,
and it's largely self inflicted. Um and they think he
looks weak. And they know that the credibility of American commitments,
which had been shaken under Trump's America First administration, has
now been further damaged under Biden. Despite the fact that
(06:30):
Biden is all about America is back. But let's also
be clear that China has big problems right now. The
third largest port in the world is presently partially closed
because of delta variant in China, and their vaccines don't
really work against delta variant ours do in the United States.
(06:51):
They've got big debt problems, they've got big demographic problems.
I mean, they're increasingly shutting down international I p O
s because they can't control their local corporations, even though
the private sector drives most of their efficiency. So I mean,
if you ask United States, right and uh, and that
that continues to be the case. It's funny you bring
(07:13):
up COVID and that this is the first story that
has bumped COVID off the front page since COVID started.
And I mean we've we've done a couple of days
where we barely mentioned COVID. What what is the COVID
story globally right now? Well, the global story today, and
it's quite linked to Afghanistan, is that the United States
(07:34):
in the coming days is going to approve um third
booster shots for the entire American population that has already
been vaccinated eight months after the second vaccination, after the
course has been completed. And the World Health Organization is
(07:56):
strongly opposing the United States doing that while most of
the global population hasn't gotten their first jab yet. And
they're saying, look, if you want to give you know,
your immuno compromise people booster shots. Fine, that's a tiny
percentage of the population. But this is a global problem.
We've got to pay attention to the rest of the world.
And the by administration's response is, actually, I'm not president
(08:18):
of the world. I'm just President of the United Staiths,
and I really don't care about what happens in these
other countries. Now he's not saying it that way, and
we're providing donations to other countries. But to be very clear,
right the rest of the world is looking at the
US and is increasingly sensing that American interests, irrespective of
(08:39):
who the president is, increasingly do not align well with
the interests of their own countries or the world as
a whole. A bit of a general question, when do
you see the world's economic supply chain situation getting back
to something close to normal? Um, you know, I think
that the issue is your still going to see a
(09:01):
lot of rolling disruptions because countries are responding to COVID
in such different ways, and because the delta variant has
so much spread. So I mean China, the supply chain
for China. You'll remember, over a year ago was almost
fully back up and running. This was second quarter two
thousand twenty, and today you're seeing rolling disruptions again. Why
(09:25):
Because the Chinese government has zero tolerance for spread, especially
with vaccines that don't work. Very well. There's still a
lot of spread that we're going to see in middle
and lower income economies, and that means that we're not
going to have uh, you know, international tourism back to
what it was. We aren't going to have those citizens
(09:45):
allowed to travel to other countries where they can make
more money and send remittances back home. So I think
that supply chain will still see rolling disruptions probably until
you know, mid to late at a minimum. Well, the
reason I asked is because my wife and I have
been waiting for our dining room set for six months.
(10:05):
Do you have any idea where it is? Where's it
coming from? Probably China? I don't even know. You wantn't
you get a van and go to North Carolina like
a real American buy something that Americans decent picked it out?
Are you teating your wife? I mean, yeah, who's in
charge in your household? We really have to ask that.
(10:30):
Um My, My final question flitted out of my head
because I've got senior moment happening. What was it about?
It was about? So is Afghanistan justice? So we're you know,
how however messy this is gonna be over the last
couple of weeks assuming we get most people out and
everything like that, is Afghanistan just gonna be a hellhole
run by these fundamentalist nut jobs that brutalize the population
(10:54):
for the near future. Uh well, I mean is in
the sense that they it's easy for the Taliban to
take over the country, they're not going to be able
to run it very well. I mean, the northern territories
will still be effectively run by warlords, bill engage in
lots of you know, rapacious taxation of local farmers. Uh.
(11:16):
And the farmers will have to grow opium so that
they can make enough money to be able to pay it.
But they're not going to be governed by the Taliban.
The Taliban will govern you pockets of the country and
some cities and kabul Um. And so when you see
the Chinese thing, they're gonna come in. They're gonna befriend
these guys. Maybe they'll invest back. Before nine eleven, Unakal
(11:38):
was trying to build a pipeline that was going to
connect Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan. It was the geo politically
stupidest pipeline everyone anyone had ever thought of trying to build.
It never happened. Um. Now we say we're talking about oil,
we're talking about rare earths, and they're trillions of dollars
or rare earths are located underneath Afghanistan. The only problem
that you have to actually invest there, and the Chinese
(12:01):
are going to find that equally challenging over the long term,
Taliban's gonna have high taxes. The Opian fathers need to
pay their fair share, beautiful, Ian Bremer, President of your
Asia Group. Ian, we always appreciate when you carve off
a couple of minutes for us. Thanks a million, I
think you guess. Thanks, We've got a hundred airs and
thousand airs. I need to pay their fair share. How
(12:25):
many goats does one man need? Oh geez, By the way,
I just got a text from Judy North Carolina. Yeah,
I figured you bought real furniture or not the Chinese
furniture that I usually get. Yeah, I got like a
couple of real pieces of furniture. They're way better. They
cost a lot more, but they're way better, I mean,
and if your kids want them, they'll be in great
(12:47):
shape when your kids are you know of age, although
from what I hear, you know generation Z they sit
on the floor they eat off the cardboard boxes they
used for use for the furniture. The key difference between
real furniture and cheap crappy furniture. Cheap crappy furniture, you
reach under it to move, you're gonna get jabbed with
a staple. Real furniture, you are not like China. That
(13:11):
is the difference. I got a big old scar on
my forearm. I don't know if you can see it.
It's faded a little bit, but it looks like a
suicide attempt because I reached behind a cheap crappy sofa
in the hotel room to unplug my charger and it
just sliced my entire four arm open. Cheap crappy furniture China,
uh text line four one five two nine five kftc
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