All Episodes

January 26, 2022 13 mins

Military analyst Mike Lyons joins Jack & Joe with his analysis of the crisis developing with Russia on the border of Ukraine. 

Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Russian troops on the move again. Ukrainian officials tonight expressing
a new concern about further big deployments and neighboring Belarus
of Russian soldiers along with tanks, artillery and other hardware,
just some of over one hundred and twenty five thousand
troops threatening a possible full scale invasion of the country.
And the story broke in the last seventy two hours

(00:21):
that Joe Biden had a change of heart for some
reason on the whole idea of US sending troops anywhere,
and we now have eight troops on heightened alert as
of today, and the idea of sending them to somewhere
in the region, not Ukraine, but somewhere in the region,
and definitely more you know, armament stuff, you know, support.

(00:42):
Military analyst Mike Lyons joins US. Mike served with various
military organizations for the United States of America throughout his career.
Was awarded the Bronze Starfer's Actions in Combat, among other recognition. Mike,
how are you, sir, hey when you guys good to
be back to do? First of all, and I asked
this because a lot of our listeners are emailing talking
about guys, we can't go to war war with Russia.

(01:03):
We're gonna go wagging the dog getting in a war.
Where are the troops and our armaments being sent and
what's the significance of it? I say, Yeah, First of all,
this is not a waged dog. This is a very
serious military build up on the side of Russia, who's
acting more like the Soviet Union right now from more
analysis that I've been doing in the past few days

(01:23):
here and they're they're bringing troops from Siberia way the
east of Moscow. They are have a very very serious
military build up here, sending troops into Belarus. UM Navy
for example, is going to go to do an exercise
in the Irish Sea. And the only thing I can
see from there that perspective is, you know, a technology

(01:43):
that trans first from Europe the United States and underground
cables and things. So they're doing a many things right
now that are seemed to be very aggressive with regard
their military. So number one, this is not a waged dog.
So it comes back to this issue of what's this
level of the terns that we're going to do to
keep them from a really doing something. Um, you know,
we were sending eighty five twops where we put them

(02:03):
on heightened alert, that's like double secret probation frankly, because
with the amount of troops that they have there right now, Um,
we wouldn't get anybody there on time. If we were
going to put them in Ukraine. We might be able
to help in a NATO country that's surrounding them, But
for all practical purposes right now, we've got to look
at this through the eyes of Russia and say they're
going to definitely do something. And that's just the question
is a matter of When I saw one analyst talking

(02:24):
about Russia having in place what it needs for a
blitzkrieg like operation, just a super fast, overwhelming they've got
the country before you know what happened sort of maneuver.
Is that possible? Yeah, I think it's true. And they're
gonna avoid built up areas and likely go for their
military and so Russia will win this by destroying the

(02:46):
Ukraine military. Now, we could send all the ammunition and
javelins and and surface air missiles we want and they
get to Kiev and you know they can send on
the docks in place. But but the bottom line is, um,
if we if if they've destroyed any of users of
that equipment, it's not going to matter. And they know
where it all is, they know how they're going to
target it, they know what they're gonna do. They're gonna
bypass certain areas. I think that the fact that they

(03:08):
put so many troops down in the in the northern part,
you know, in that Belarus area, shows they're going to
do this pincer movement where they're likely come from the north.
They're likely looked to surround the capitol, um and and
and and and not just take control of of the country,
but you know, really destroy the military and just put
it set it back thirty to fifty years when it
comes to being a country. And if they just had

(03:29):
to leave, then then so what they've destroyed. So Russia's
perspective of Ukraine is there an enemy. Um, they've been
they've been fighting for them for the past seven years. Um.
They perceived them as a threat. They perceived them as
trying to align with the West. And from their perspective,
they don't think the terrence has worked. And they've tried
to ternce on Ukraine and from their perspective, it hasn't worked,
which is why they're doing what they're doing. Let's rewind

(03:51):
a little bit, and I realized this could be a
book length answer. But what are the American interests in Ukraine?
In Russia's aggressions in Ukraine? Why do we care? Well, Um,
at fifty feet, it's supporting, you know, a sovereign nation,
that's democracy. So if it's more ideological than it is economic,
let's say, um, from that perspective, and is you know

(04:13):
we can cavalist well or not that's a good idea
to go to war over. Probably not in today's world. Um.
Number two, it also serves as potentially this lynch pin
that would drive NATO apart. You've got already the Germans
not playing. They're not really participating in what's going on
because they rely on about their energy comes from Russia,
so they're not looking to get into any kind of

(04:33):
conflict with Russia. UM. But other than that, it's you know,
us trying to prop up um. You know, these Eastern
European countries who mistakenly we allowed in NATO following thousand
and four under the Bush administration. You know. So, so
this could end up turning out to be a war
of former Soviet bloc countries against against Russia. What happens then?

(04:55):
What happens if Romania decides to cross the border that
they share with Ukraine and help the Ukraine military. Russia
attacks them and does something into Ukraine, It launches missiles
into into Rope And then what happens. Then that's a
NATO country. Here we go Article five And now the
US has dragged into this. This was the problem of
putting these countries in. I've said this before. We can't

(05:15):
have membership to NATO to be everybody but Russia. Same
mistake we're making that we made it started World War One. Yeah,
I'm glad you brought that up, that whole NATO Article
five things. So that's the danger of the United States
actually getting involved. Right if if any NATO plane or
ship or soldier or anybody, um somehow on purpose or
inadvertently gets attacked, then then things change. Yeah, and theory.

(05:38):
There's a lot of things going on in the med
right now. We've got a carrier group there, the Russians
have got UM naval forces there, They've got them in
the Atlantic in the Black Sea. Of course, anything that
we just don't know what that trigger could be, and
that could lead to a further escalation, and and then
what does that look like. I mean, from from our perspective,
it's only strategic weapons, because, like I said, we we

(05:58):
don't have any cap ability to get troops there on time.
I just don't think troops on high alert is the
is a kind of deterrence that we need to be doing.
I also don't agree with US implementing sanctions right now.
Anything we do right now is going to be considered preemptive.
It's going to be considered an act of war on
the Russian side. So I think that'll just further down

(06:19):
the road his capability of of wanting to to do
this even more. I mean, he's got to look at
right now the cost of not acting that that Talleyrand
expression about, you know, you can do a lot of
things that bayonets but can't sit on him. He's gonna
lose a lot of face here if nothing, if nothing
does happen, if he doesn't do anything. Um with his
own people, I think, UM, and we've got to figure
out diplomatically if there's if there's an off ramp to

(06:40):
that or not or else. Right now, from the way
I look at it, UM, the Ukraine military is about
to be destroyed. Well boy there, Well, there's been some
reporting that the Ukraine military's plan is to kill as
many Russian soldiers as fast as they can and have
the Russian public turn against this. Of course, if it's
a to day operation for Russian to roll through the
whole country and take it over, there wouldn't be time

(07:00):
to uh public opinion. There's a crazy op in the
worst of insurance say that says a hundred thousand troops
is not enough. And I sit there and go, how
do you know that? I mean, we look at we
look at the situation in the past of what's what's happened.
I just don't think that that's you know, a feasible
way of deterrence and making sure that that that that uh,
that's going to keep them from doing anything. Mike, have

(07:24):
you actually let loose the dogs of war? We can
hear the dogs of war in the background. Yeah, I
had him, had him rocked up, but he gets that
you worry about it. We just thought that was a
funny joke. That's all there was to that. Bans. Military
analysts on the line always great to talk to, Mike James.
So is the most likely thing that happens. Then Russia
moves in. It only takes a couple of days, they

(07:45):
destroy the Ukrainian they take over Ukraine and the world
says in what are you gonna do? Is that what's
gonna happen? Yeah? I think so. I think that the
question is how much damage does Russia cause? Do they
feel they have to go overboard? And um, it could
lead to those crippling sanctions that we say that that
are going to happen again, the Germans are not going

(08:06):
to go with them, and the Chinese will still you know,
back to support them as well. Um. I just think
that the question is how much will be destroyed of
the Ukraine military, because that's really it would be no
match they have. They don't have the same capabilities over
some fifty thous and they've got all those other troops
that are there as well. They just don't have any
kind of capability. And again, these anti tank missiles and

(08:28):
the things we're sending is not gonna be enough to
stop them. They're they're the Russians are going to do
this by indirect fire. They're gonna fire missiles and artillery
into these built up is Flattenum, level them for a
few days and then a side role and I to
destroy anything that's left over. So just another book length question,
you know, condensed down into a minute or two. Um,
to what extent, in your opinion, is Vladimir Putin trying

(08:50):
to recapture the not only the ground but the glory
of the Soviet Empire? And to what extent is he
like Russian rulers through history, you know, fairly paranoid about
attacks from the west and the south, and he's just
trying to establish a buffer. I think he's not acting
like a Russian ruler. He's acting like a Soviet ruler.

(09:13):
He's not. It's and there's a difference. I mean, um,
you know, Russia potentially would have been part of the
international community. Look at me Boris Yeltson and look at
the things that that they they've tried to do at
the end there with Glasnostin and Gorbacheff, and that was
more of a Russian ruler. He's much more ruthless. He's
more of a Soviet union leader that wants to bring
um as much damage down and fear as a tactic

(09:35):
in order to get things going. There's no karent and
stick with Vladimir Putin. I think the question is, um,
he wants America out of Europe, that's for sure, and
a little secret as we are. I mean, we took
three hundred thousand troops out in the nineties, but he
doesn't want any more influence in those NATO countries that
we have there, and I think I think that's um.
The question of whether he can get there with this

(09:56):
or not it remains to be seen. I saw a
good article from Fiona Hill that said, you know, he's
got us right where he wants us, and there's there's
some ways that's true. The question is again, he goes
in there with this destructive force, kills a lot of people,
destroys the Ukraine military, and then turns the United States
and say, now, what are you gonna do about it? Yeah.
The frustrating thing to me is I watched this is
there's no well, not no. There are a few strong

(10:18):
intrinsic reasons why we are rivals with Vladimir Putin and
his his kleptocracy. I mean, it's not like China exactly.
He's not exactly a communist, a sort of one. But
why in the world there are we these huge adversaries
with Putin. Well, it's because Putin's a megalomaniac, I think, yeah,
And he's got new crispins and they they he does

(10:39):
fancy himself as being, you know, a global leer. He
wants to exert global influence, especially in the region. It's
the same reason why the Chinese want us out of Asia, um,
Russia wants us out of Europe, and he wants to
have that sphere of influence over it. Um. You know,
I do think that at the end of the day, though,
if we get too bogged down in this and we
keep don't keep on the ball, that China still presents

(11:01):
the bigger problem because of their economy and because of
where their military capability is. And we couldn't make a
bullet to kill all the people. So you know, there's
just not you know that it's still a pretty large
distraction here, and I'm not sure we're gonna be able
to thread the needle on this in a way. Um
that's gonna that's gonna either say faced on our side,
on the Native side, doesn't. Some's put the alliance up

(11:23):
on some level. But I do think again that it's
going to be connectic and I think that that a
large part of that Ukraine military is going to get
destroyed because he's got the capability to do that. Well,
almost use up all our time before I ask my
big stupid question, which is is there any chance Russian
and China is working together that that Russia is gonna
move on Ukraine and China is gonna move on Taiwan.

(11:44):
I think the only way that happens is if it's
uh after the Olympics. The Chinese have got so much
focus there. He we Russia did that at the end
of the Socio Olympics. Literally the last day Olympics, he
moved on Crimea. I think that he's gonna least give
the Chinese that amount of time. It's gonna give two
or three more weeks for the ground to freeze so
the tanks don't sink and in the mud as they

(12:05):
roll across the country. But I got I think quick
incursion go in a lot of fires, a lot of
death and destruction. I'm not sure they're going to occupy,
but I don't think it's still gonna happen for a
couple of weeks because of the Olympics. So that's where
they're gonna work together, well, getting back here charming saying
about Bayonets. Something is going to happen. I hope we
can stay in touch. Military analysts, my clients always enlightening Mike,
thanks a million, Hey guys, good thanks for having me. Yeah.

(12:27):
If you want to follow the story, follow him on
Twitter because he he often has the very latest best
stuff going on there. I think they're just gonna roll
in take over Ukraine. The world's gonna say, damn it.
Can you believe that? That's s sanctions? Strong statements? Strong statements.
So Putin has a mass to half a trillion dollars
of reserve money according to report out today. To be

(12:49):
able to weather sanctions half a trillion, he needs oil
to be forty dollars a barrel. To be able to
make a profit. It's twice that, and that's where they
get most of their revenue. So financially, a lot of
fakers think the sanctions just he's not scared of him
at all. Between oil and has saved up money. So
he's gonna roll and he's gonna take Ukraine in the
world's gonna go. God, can you believe he did that?
Damn it? Because he care? What a mean guy? Anyway,

(13:14):
have you seen have you seen the new season of
squid Game? And then we go back to other, you know,
whatever stuff we talk about. I think he nailed it. Yeah,
there you go.
Advertise With Us

Popular Podcasts

1. The Podium

1. The Podium

The Podium: An NBC Olympic and Paralympic podcast. Join us for insider coverage during the intense competition at the 2024 Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games. In the run-up to the Opening Ceremony, we’ll bring you deep into the stories and events that have you know and those you'll be hard-pressed to forget.

2. In The Village

2. In The Village

In The Village will take you into the most exclusive areas of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games to explore the daily life of athletes, complete with all the funny, mundane and unexpected things you learn off the field of play. Join Elizabeth Beisel as she sits down with Olympians each day in Paris.

3. iHeartOlympics: The Latest

3. iHeartOlympics: The Latest

Listen to the latest news from the 2024 Olympics.

Music, radio and podcasts, all free. Listen online or download the iHeart App.

Connect

© 2024 iHeartMedia, Inc.