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August 18, 2021 14 mins

Washington Post Columnist and the author of "Chaos Under Heaven", Josh Rogin, joins Armstrong & Getty for an episode of the A&G Extra Large Podcast to talk about the failed withdrawal from Afghanistan. 

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The armstrong and getting show. The immediate priority, as you say,
is to get the Americans trapped behind Taliban lines out
of Afghanistan. Joe Biden to a ball faced law yesterday
when he said they planned for every contingency, they obviously
did not because there are ten to fifteen thousand Americans
behind Taliban checkpoints. My office has been in direct contact

(00:24):
with hundreds of these people who have not heard from
the State Department, who cannot get to the airport in
Cobble because the Taliban have checkpoints all over the roads
and control all access to it, and Joe Biden's administration
won't even commit to stay in Afghanistan to secure that
airport for two more weeks to get all those Americans out.

(00:44):
That's U S. Senator Tom Cotton as reading Josh Rogan's
Twitter feed in which he retweeted some information there are
fifteen thousand Americans currently trapped in Afghanistan. Some are reaching
the airport for evacuation, but it's unclear how many of
the Taliban will allow through. Since they get to make
that decision. Dual citizens are the most at risk. Those

(01:04):
that are outside Kabu have really no option, and as
Josh Rogan tweeted out the Biden presidency and US foreign
policy now hinge on pulling off one of the greatest
air airlifts in world history. Josh Rogan is global opinions
columnists for The Washington Post, also the author of a
terrific book about China Chaos under Heaven Trump she in
The Battle for the twenty Century. Josh joins us now,

(01:26):
Josh welcome, How are you. I'm okay a lot better
than our allies. Yeah, Josh, You're one of the first
people I saw on your Twitter feed speaking to the
fact that the Taliban control the narratives so much more
than a lot of people are talking about. Explain that
to us, well, I mean, you know, the fact of

(01:49):
the matter is that all of our American foreign policy
now is dependent on the good graces of the Taliban,
and all we have left to do in our uh
to say of our people is to uh balance, scrape
and beg the Taliban for safe passage which they may
or may not give on any given street on any
given day, and to try to negotiate with them by

(02:12):
bribing them with things like legitimacy and international recognition and money,
all of which they don't deserve because they're a murderous
group of uh fundamentalist extremist terrorist thugs. And you know,
if you just think about what a horrible position that
puts us in, uh, you realize that, you know, uh,

(02:34):
this was screwed up majorly. But the before we do
the postmortem, the patients still on the table, right, so
we still have to deal with the crisis that's ongoing
right now. And that is why I focus on this
idea that well we can there are mistakes that are
going on today that we don't have to make. There
are people who are going to die tomorrow who don't
have to die if the United States fixes its policy,

(02:58):
which we're not doing, of school, But that don't do
the post mortem all the patients still on the table
is a pretty good one. Yeah, that's solid stuff. So
we understand the vast majority of the Americans still in
country or in the Kabul area. So let's start there.
What is the situation for them right now? Informationally, logistically,
can they get to the airport? What's happening? You know,

(03:20):
my sources and I think it is confirmed by by
some of what you've seen from TV reporters on the ground,
is that. You know, the Taliban are enjoying there being
in charge of who gets to live and who gets
to die on the road to the Kabbal airport. And
you know, if you if you think that, you know,
the promises of Taliban leaders extend down to every roaming

(03:44):
gang of thugs in Cobble, Uh, then you're a full.
So the you know, when the Biden administration tells us, oh, well,
don't worry, the Taliban said everything is gonna be fine,
they know that that's not true because they're not. Actually,
that's stupid. So you know, it's all case by case.
You know, you could be an American and you could
get to the airport and find that you don't have
a seat on the flight. You could be an American.

(04:04):
You could never get to the airport. You could. You know,
it's it's just Mayhem. And meanwhile, the planes are taking
off half full, sometimes not even that much because they're
not letting the people on the airport who are supposed
to get on the planes. So they're bragging that they
flew some planes out of it airport without any people
on them. I mean, that's how crazy it is. That's
how bad man. I spent a lot of the weekend

(04:26):
tweeting with smart people. And know I should have tweeted
at you because it's been a good person to ask it.
Just you know, what's in the Taliban's best interest, because
that's what they're gonna do. And I and I was
hoping that the Taliban would think. I think their current
thinking is the best thing for us is just to
get the United States out of there. Let's let's get
get them out of here and then we'll just run
the country. But if they wanted to, man, they could
embarrass us on the world stage. They could pull off

(04:48):
a hostage situation that could take weeks or months to unravel.
It could be really ugly, couldn't it. Right, So you
know this is sort of right, how do you how
do you get inside the minds the Taliban? Right? So
this is like a you know what the fight administration
trying to do now, they're trying to keep the Taliban
on their good side and so that they'll let the
Americans go. Of course, they're not gonna let the Afghans go.

(05:10):
Tens of thousands of Afghans who helped us, who risk
their lives for us on the promise that we would
provide them safety and promise that word right now in
the process of breaking. So they're never going to let
those people through the checkpoints no matter what. And the
only thing that we can ask for and reasonably expect
to get is, oh, well, they'll they'll let the Americans,
at least the white Americans, get through the lines. And

(05:34):
you know, yes, they could pull that rug out from
under us at any moment. So, in other words, they're
basically holding all of our citizens hostage. They're holding our
military and our government hostage in a sense because we
have to do what they say, because we're all We've
decided to give them the entire cities, the entire country
without a fight, and now, uh, we're screwed. Josh Rogan

(05:56):
of the Washington Post is on the line. Josh, I
read your excellent column which we have think that Armstrong
and Gutta dot com, and you mentioned that the folks
incable are desperate for any sort of information anything What
should I do type information? And they're calling congress people
and senators and such right so, you know, if we
have such a good relationship with the Taliban, why did
we have to close the embassy where they were processing

(06:18):
all the visas where people could call and figure out
what the heck to do. You know, if we have
such a good relationship with the Taliban, is the buying
administration seems to want to tell us? Uh? Then how
is it that the States Department has to tell Americans?
First of all, they told them the shelter in place,
don't come to the airport because the airport wasn't secure.
Then they said, okay, you can come to the airport,
but we're not going to provide you any assistance. So

(06:41):
good luck if you make it there, let us know.
And then if you get to the airport's not even
clear you get through the gates because the gates are
like full of uh, Taliban soldiers you know with American
you know, advanced weaponry strapped all to their backs. Uh
so yeah, I think you know, there's it's just a

(07:01):
raging fire and and they're they're trying to put it
out with a with a with a garden hose. It's
just crazy. You know, that's an excellent point. You can't
you can't make the claim that we're working with the Taliban.
But we had to smash our computers and burn all
of our our paperwork and leave the embassy UH in
a hurry that they they they burned all of the

(07:22):
passports that were in the embassy when they were burning
up the embassy dock. So if you were an Afghan
with a special visa and in your passport, your passport
got burned by the Americans. I mean, does that sound
like a well planned contingency to you? Does that sound like, oh, yeah,
we we we definitely thought of this, you know. Does
that sound like that a successful implementation of policy? Does

(07:46):
this feel like a disaster in the making? You know,
in my gun, I'm I'm so scared that if you
get much worse, And by that, I mean, you know,
Taliban doing exactly what you said, which is deciding that hey,
you know, toy with us has UH yielded them all
of the amusement that they care to get, and now
it's just time to start killing Americans and Westerners and

(08:08):
Europeans and Afghans and anybody else looks at them cross side,
and women and journalists and activists, And that would be
another layer of hell. That would be you know, Saigon
plus Benghazi, and you know, I pray to God that
we don't get to that point. But I think the
decisions that the US government makes in the next few

(08:28):
days will have an impact on that, you know, Josh,
I wonder well, I'm I'm I'm interested in observing the
way the Taliban is conducting itself right now. It seems
to me, and I'd love to hear your opinion that
they are coming off very much as the moderates to
try to grease the skids, solidified power, get the Americans
out of town, etcetera. But I'm sure they will go

(08:49):
back to their old ways before long, don't you. Well,
what the Taliban need is not recognition. They just need
some recognition. In other words, once they've put up an
off of a facade that the Chinese and the Russians
and Iranians, probably the Turks can pretend to believe them
because nobody actually believes them. But if you're a dictatorship

(09:10):
in Beijing or something like that, you could pretend log
enough to recognize them, then they won't need us anymore.
In other words, they don't need American recognition. It's enough
for them. If they get Pakistan and China and Russian around,
that's that's pretty good. Uh So, that's as long as
they'll you know, pretend not to be you know, murderous extremeist,
fanatic terrorists, fun fugs, which they still are. Okay, So

(09:32):
again that provides us a window to try to maybe
get something that we want. But to think that we
have leverage over them is ridiculous. And yes, of course
they'll play nice to the Internet with the international community
to a point. Uh. And that point is once they
extract as much as they can get from playing nice, Uh,
then though, I'm sure they'll revert the form. So we're
talking with Josh Rogan, and we've had you on several

(09:53):
times talking about your book Chaos under Heaving Trump she
in the Battle for the twenty one Century, you know,
back to your expertise on I know, how do you
think China looks at what we just did and what
we're doing. How might that influence their decisions and foreign
policy going forward? You know, it's funny because the Chinese
propaganda criticize us when we're in Afghanistan as imperialists, invaders

(10:15):
and occupiers. They criticizes when we leave Afghanistan uh for
abandoning our allies. So either way, the Chinese Communist Party
propaganda is gonna uh find a way to call us
the devils and and then the heroes. Okay, So putting
that aside, what's actually happening on the ground is that
our allies, not just our Western allies, but any allies, Taiwan, Israel,
you name it, have got to have their confidence shaken.

(10:38):
They've got to be thinking twice that if push came
to shove, if you know, if the if the their
version of the Taliban came for them, would America stand
by them? And you know, what are you supposed to
say to them, like, what do you how could you
possibly reassure them in the light of this disaster? And
what the by administration basically said as well, every situation
is different and they shouldn't worry. But I'm here to
tell you that they're worried. And China's trying to exploit that.

(11:01):
I mean, they just did a mock assault on Taiwan yesterday, right,
that's not that's not a coincidence of timing. They're telling
the Taiwan he is that, Uh, you guys are on
your own. Look what happened to as Raf Ghani and
the Taiwan He's are scared and they should be. That's interesting.
Josh Rogan Global opinions columnists for The Washington Post and
also again the author of Chaos under Heaven. Trump she

(11:23):
in the Battle for the Century. Josh, we sure appreciate
the time. Really good stuff. Thanks for your coverage, and
let's talk again soon anytime. Yeah, if you like this
sort of stuff, he's a good follow on Twitter. You know,
it becomes pretty obvious. Josh basically just said it there.
It already is a hostage situation. It's just happening behind
the scenes. It's just not overtly. It's not you know,

(11:46):
Al Pacino and Dog Day Afternoon, you know they're on cameras,
but it is. It is a hostage situation. The tally
Ban know that we know we're getting these people out
at their pleasure, and that's why we're offering them all
the money and everything. So it's it's a hostage negotiation
that's going on in secret. Right. Meanwhile, the five figures

(12:08):
low five figures worth of Americans who are hiding out
in and around Couple are getting no information from the
State Department. They don't know where to go or what
to do exactly, other than yeah, if you can get
to the airport, get there, and the nervousness is as
as Josh pointed out, he's got to come from. The
Taliban is not, you know, as top down coordinated as
the US military is. You could have a Taliban leader

(12:32):
or group of dudes decide, you know, we're gonna kill
Americans screw it at any point, and you know, I
know a lot of what you A lot of what
you would say, UH is uh, they start killing Americans,
or we're gonna unleash Holy Hell on you. Well, I
was thinking about Beirut nineteen eighty two something like that,
when uh, terrorists killed hundreds of Marines on our basis.

(12:53):
We didn't unleash Holy Hell on anybody. We got the
hell out of there. We thought this is a screwed
up part of the world, and we got out. Yeah. Yeah.
The only reason they're not killing Americans is they must
not think it benefits them, because they're gonna do whatever
benefits them, right, And that could absolutely change over time
because there are thousands of Americans in hiding at this

(13:14):
point and no clear way to get him out. If
you're outside of Kabul, by the way, there's not even
a conception of a plan to rescue you. Uh. In
Kapul at least conceivably. There's a bad idea too of
how we can get you out. But how this unfolds,
god knows. How in the hell, Joe Biden, do you

(13:35):
decide you're gonna pull out of Afghanistan and then you
don't have a plan for fifteen thousand US citizens. They're
not already out of the country before you get this started.
How the hell does that happen? Right, Joe Biden? Anybody
gonna resign, anybody gonna get fired. The short answer is,

(13:58):
we thought we had at months that the you know,
that the storm would be seen gathering on the horizon
and moving slowly across the plane, and we could see
it coming and think, oll, we're probably down to about
sixty days to get people out. So let's get out
the less critical people, and we'll meet again next month

(14:21):
and decide who to get out. And go ahead and
book tickets, honey, because they're they're out halfway across the country,
and I think by by October they'll be here. So
let's go ahead and book tickets, and we'll gather our
belongings and we'll move out of Kaboo. I guess that's
what they thought. That any comment text line four one
two nine five KFTC
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