September 17, 2025 • 11 mins
Lanhee Chen joins Jack Armstrong to bring us a little optimism in the wake of the Charlie Kirk murder, as well as to share his thoughts on the national redistricting efforts--and the one factor that will influence the vote the most (it's not Gavin Newsom).
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
But du let getting a great stand.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
I guess who does?
Speaker 1 (00:02):
You never know what?
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Too late, but job right the right, Jim mc clara,
much mc clara. That's Donald Trump referring to Federal Reserve
Chairman Powell. Is too late. Hope your lower's rates. Well,
that's what's expected to happen today. And uh, we'll have
more on that coming up. A little bit later. Trump
(00:25):
headed over to England, where I'm watching live on TV
right now. You got people in funny outfits marching around
playing bagpipes. Well, Trump and his model wife and a
fancy hat. Sit there and watch. We'd like to welcome
to the arm Showing and Getty Show Lna heat Chen
to talk a little bit of politics. Lannie is the
David and Die and Stephie Fellow in American Public Policy
(00:46):
Studies at the Hoover Institution, the Director of Domestic Policy
Studies at Stanford University, and a super smart guy about politics.
How are you, Lonnie?
Speaker 1 (00:55):
I am doing well. Thanks check.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
How How are you feeling in terms of optimism or
pessimism for the country after the last week? Oh boy, well,
I'm look.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
I think there are always reasons to be optimistic about America.
But we're in a really challenging political moment right now,
and we're in a very challenging time, I think as
we look at how people are reacting and responding to politics,
and obviously the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk, which I know,
you know folks have talked about a lot. But what
I continue to reflect is the way in which this
(01:31):
kind of violence impacts people who you know, aren't even
elected officials, you know, just people who are speaking up
and expressing their points of view.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
I noticed myself when I've been pulling into the parking
lots like is that people are always there.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
I mean, yeah, and you know, people shouldn't have to
feel and think that way in a place like America,
where I think we've always valued our ability to disagree civilly,
but those for slave.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Right and I don't know, so I'm jack, I'm a
little concerned about where we are. But obviously, you know,
there are a lot of bright spots. I mean, if
you look at just I think a lot of people
have been truly compassionate in the wake of what happened.
I think you've seen a lot of people who have
(02:21):
decided that they want to be more involved in our
political system and not less. And I think that's all good,
but you know, I do worry a little bit about
how various things are making us more and more divided,
you know, whether it's social media or you know, the
other thing I look at. I mean not to tie
a current event to all of this, but if you
look at redistricting and all the battles over redistricting that
(02:43):
are happened.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
What redistricting?
Speaker 1 (02:45):
That the way that politicians want to change the system
here in California and elsewhere, by the way Texas and
other places too, is to draw lines so that we
are living next to more people and voting next to
more people who we agree with other than who we
disagree with, as opposed to putting us in conversation and
next to people with whom, you know, maybe we have
(03:06):
some political disagreements. I actually think it's good for us
to have opportunities to interact with people with whom we disagree,
and I think we need more of that in our society.
Not less so.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Texas decides to redistrict in the in the middle of
the decade, and it's their state allows them to do
that legally, it's not unheard of it's not common. The
media studiously avoided mentioning to viewers who don't already know
that lots and lots of states have jerrymandered throughout our
(03:37):
country's history. And a lot of blue states are already
jerrymandered to death, including Illinois where they all ran to anyway,
So that's an old story. So now California is going
to try to do it, or at least put it
on the ballot for November fourth and change the rules
here in California so that we could redistrict. Also, the
polling shows that it's going to go down in flames.
Are you staying you think that's true?
Speaker 1 (03:58):
Well, I'm I think it's going to be close, actually
really well, because I think the challenge is that anytime,
what you've seen with what Newsome and his allies have
done on this initiative is they have painted it as
not the issues that you framed it as, which are
the right issues. They framed it as do you like
(04:19):
Donald Trump or not? And this will be the gosh,
let's think about this. Now, there's probably the fourth or
fifth election cycle in a row where they're going to
run this playbook, and today they've been pretty successful with
this point, and so I think that the worry for
those of us who oppose uh this proposition and who
(04:40):
don't believe it's the right course for California. I think
the concern is that voters are not going to be
choosing whether they like.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Of course, you're right, You are so right.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
It's going to be about do you like Trump or not? Yea,
And I think in California, you know, and some some
some of your listeners might not lie hearing this, but
the reality is that Donald Trump is not the most
popular guy in California, and so I think that the
dynamic they're setting up here with Prop fifty is a
dynamic that could end up moving in their favor. Now
(05:12):
there's a lot more information that's got to be distributed
over the next couple of weeks, and we've got a
little over a month until election day. So I have
some measure of hope that people will see through what
this is. But I don't know, Jack, I think it's
gonna be pretty close.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
You're absolutely right. I can't believe silly me. I thought
it would be about the issue itself, But people wore
masks or didn't wear masks because it demonstrated are you
for Trump or not not? Because of the disease. I mean,
there's all kinds of examples of that. You're four against
climate change because everything you can mention is Trump for
(05:46):
it or not. So yeah, of course this is going
to be that.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Yeah. And I mean it's interesting. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was
actually the governor who originally led California's effort to turn
our redistricting away from the power politicians and to independent citizens,
he actually spoke up, you know, sort of really significantly
about this the other day for the first time. And
you know, even you know, he's no great supporter of
(06:11):
Donald Trump, but he said, listen, the effort that Gavin
Newsom and his allies are undertaking with this proposition, that
effort is really an effort to give the power to
redistrict back to politicians and away from kind of an independent,
more independent process, which we've had in California since two
thousand and eight and twenty ten for congressional seats, we've
(06:34):
had this process in place. And by the way, the
process we've had has drawn complaints from both Republicans and Democrats,
which is how you know it's working. Okay, probably right,
and so it was interesting to see Schwarzenegger get involved.
I think a few other people may get involved who
are not your usual suspects on this sort of thing.
So I hope that voters are able to at least
(06:55):
understand what the basic question is, which is, do we
believe that district lines in California should be drawn by
politicians or by citizens? And that's the fundamental question.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
So I see a lot of national pundits who aren't
from California that are really high and I mean people
that lean right, who are really high on Gavin Newsom's
chances of becoming president. I feel like, being closer to him,
I'm not as high. Where are you on that?
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Well, Look, I think there's two things here, Jack. First
of all, there's just an absence of strong leadership on
the Democratic side of the aisle. I'd say, people who
are perceived to be out there, and you know, whether
whatever you think of what Nisson's doing, he's out there.
So I think that's the first thing is just, you know,
politics of whores a vacuum, and Newsom has stepped into
(07:44):
that in a very real way. I think the other
reason that people sort of see him positively in particularly
given what he's been doing with this redistricting. Proposition is
you've got to think about the composition of the Democratic
primary electorate and it's going to on average be more activist,
more left of center, and Newsom's politics are a good
match for that. So I think that's probably why people
(08:07):
feel well at national level.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
I agree, what are you doing? I could see him
getting the nomination. That wouldn't surprise me. How can you
run for president with I just feel like the homeless situation,
the people, the fact that people are leaving your state
for the first time ever, a lot of those things.
How do you overcome that? Well?
Speaker 1 (08:24):
I think that's what a campaign is for, right. I
think people need to be reminded. It's very easy. We
have in politics recency bias, and so we look at,
you know, what has someone done in the last sixty
days or last nine minutes, right, and we and we
forget about the French laundry, We forget about all, you know,
his record, we forget about his record in San Francisco,
(08:47):
We forget about his extremely progressive pass which I think
is out of step with the vast majority of the
American people. So that's what a campaign is for a campaign.
Is there to remind people of someone's record and who
they are, and by the way people can say we
know that we're comfortable with it. I don't know that
that's where they'll come out on someone like Gavin Newson.
(09:08):
But let's see, let's see. I mean, like you, Jack,
I think being being in or near California and seeing
him in action up close for the last eight years,
I think we have a point of view that might
be very different from a point of view if if
it hasn't been in your face for the last eight years.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Just curious, since you're a smart guy and you know
policy got a thing you spent a moment of your
life thinking about the Epstein Files. No, no, I don't.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
And I find it interesting how much carry the story
has in the sense that I mean, it just keeps
coming back. It's like, you know, it's like a bad
infection coming back, like I can't think of it. I mean,
that is the sort of analogy I think of because
I just every time I hear about the Epstein Files
(09:58):
or Epstein, I just cringe because I know there's nothing
redeeming about this at all, this discussion about about Epstein.
There is nothing redeeming about it. It doesn't make us
better as a country to have a conversation about the
Epstein files. But you know whatever, people are interested in
what they're interested and I don't want it to mean that,
but for me personally, I have no interest in it.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
I mean, either, what is what is on your radar?
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Well, I mean we've talked a little bit about the
redistricting thing. I think that's a big deal, And then
I am thinking a lot about as we go into
this fall and in the next year. You mentioned the
whole thing with the Federal Reserve and with weightcuts and
what might happen there. I do think the economy, we've
got to kind of see what's happening, because the message
that I keep getting when I talk to you know,
(10:42):
every day at Californians, that that you know, when I'm
around and out. Yeah, I think there are a lot
of people who are who are still having a tough
time given the economy, and they're looking at prices, you know,
still being probably a little higher than they like, and
you kind of wonder how the economy is going to perform.
I'm optimistic about it. I think as we go into
next year, things are going to pick up. But that
(11:03):
is one thing that I that I'm concerned about, what
the collective impact of all of the different policies we've
seen in all of the division at Washington, what that
will mean going into next year. I think that's going
to be an issue worth watching as well.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
He is the Director of Domestic Policy Studies at Stanford
University and all around good and smart. Guyln hee Chen,
thanks for your time today.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Hey, Jack, always great to be with you. Thanks.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if Gavin can pull
off running away from what he has been in California
for all these years. But anyway, we'll have plenty of
We'll have plenty of time to talk about that.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Armstrong and Getty
But du let getting a great stand.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
I guess who does?
Speaker 1 (00:02):
You never know what?
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Too late, but job right the right, Jim mc clara,
much mc clara. That's Donald Trump referring to Federal Reserve
Chairman Powell. Is too late. Hope your lower's rates. Well,
that's what's expected to happen today. And uh, we'll have
more on that coming up. A little bit later. Trump
(00:25):
headed over to England, where I'm watching live on TV
right now. You got people in funny outfits marching around
playing bagpipes. Well, Trump and his model wife and a
fancy hat. Sit there and watch. We'd like to welcome
to the arm Showing and Getty Show Lna heat Chen
to talk a little bit of politics. Lannie is the
David and Die and Stephie Fellow in American Public Policy
(00:46):
Studies at the Hoover Institution, the Director of Domestic Policy
Studies at Stanford University, and a super smart guy about politics.
How are you, Lonnie?
Speaker 1 (00:55):
I am doing well. Thanks check.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
How How are you feeling in terms of optimism or
pessimism for the country after the last week? Oh boy, well,
I'm look.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
I think there are always reasons to be optimistic about America.
But we're in a really challenging political moment right now,
and we're in a very challenging time, I think as
we look at how people are reacting and responding to politics,
and obviously the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk, which I know,
you know folks have talked about a lot. But what
I continue to reflect is the way in which this
(01:31):
kind of violence impacts people who you know, aren't even
elected officials, you know, just people who are speaking up
and expressing their points of view.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
I noticed myself when I've been pulling into the parking
lots like is that people are always there.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
I mean, yeah, and you know, people shouldn't have to
feel and think that way in a place like America,
where I think we've always valued our ability to disagree civilly,
but those for slave.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Right and I don't know, so I'm jack, I'm a
little concerned about where we are. But obviously, you know,
there are a lot of bright spots. I mean, if
you look at just I think a lot of people
have been truly compassionate in the wake of what happened.
I think you've seen a lot of people who have
(02:21):
decided that they want to be more involved in our
political system and not less. And I think that's all good,
but you know, I do worry a little bit about
how various things are making us more and more divided,
you know, whether it's social media or you know, the
other thing I look at. I mean not to tie
a current event to all of this, but if you
look at redistricting and all the battles over redistricting that
(02:43):
are happened.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
What redistricting?
Speaker 1 (02:45):
That the way that politicians want to change the system
here in California and elsewhere, by the way Texas and
other places too, is to draw lines so that we
are living next to more people and voting next to
more people who we agree with other than who we
disagree with, as opposed to putting us in conversation and
next to people with whom, you know, maybe we have
(03:06):
some political disagreements. I actually think it's good for us
to have opportunities to interact with people with whom we disagree,
and I think we need more of that in our society.
Not less so.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Texas decides to redistrict in the in the middle of
the decade, and it's their state allows them to do
that legally, it's not unheard of it's not common. The
media studiously avoided mentioning to viewers who don't already know
that lots and lots of states have jerrymandered throughout our
(03:37):
country's history. And a lot of blue states are already
jerrymandered to death, including Illinois where they all ran to anyway,
So that's an old story. So now California is going
to try to do it, or at least put it
on the ballot for November fourth and change the rules
here in California so that we could redistrict. Also, the
polling shows that it's going to go down in flames.
Are you staying you think that's true?
Speaker 1 (03:58):
Well, I'm I think it's going to be close, actually
really well, because I think the challenge is that anytime,
what you've seen with what Newsome and his allies have
done on this initiative is they have painted it as
not the issues that you framed it as, which are
the right issues. They framed it as do you like
(04:19):
Donald Trump or not? And this will be the gosh,
let's think about this. Now, there's probably the fourth or
fifth election cycle in a row where they're going to
run this playbook, and today they've been pretty successful with
this point, and so I think that the worry for
those of us who oppose uh this proposition and who
(04:40):
don't believe it's the right course for California. I think
the concern is that voters are not going to be
choosing whether they like.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Of course, you're right, You are so right.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
It's going to be about do you like Trump or not? Yea,
And I think in California, you know, and some some
some of your listeners might not lie hearing this, but
the reality is that Donald Trump is not the most
popular guy in California, and so I think that the
dynamic they're setting up here with Prop fifty is a
dynamic that could end up moving in their favor. Now
(05:12):
there's a lot more information that's got to be distributed
over the next couple of weeks, and we've got a
little over a month until election day. So I have
some measure of hope that people will see through what
this is. But I don't know, Jack, I think it's
gonna be pretty close.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
You're absolutely right. I can't believe silly me. I thought
it would be about the issue itself, But people wore
masks or didn't wear masks because it demonstrated are you
for Trump or not not? Because of the disease. I mean,
there's all kinds of examples of that. You're four against
climate change because everything you can mention is Trump for
(05:46):
it or not. So yeah, of course this is going
to be that.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Yeah. And I mean it's interesting. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was
actually the governor who originally led California's effort to turn
our redistricting away from the power politicians and to independent citizens,
he actually spoke up, you know, sort of really significantly
about this the other day for the first time. And
you know, even you know, he's no great supporter of
(06:11):
Donald Trump, but he said, listen, the effort that Gavin
Newsom and his allies are undertaking with this proposition, that
effort is really an effort to give the power to
redistrict back to politicians and away from kind of an independent,
more independent process, which we've had in California since two
thousand and eight and twenty ten for congressional seats, we've
(06:34):
had this process in place. And by the way, the
process we've had has drawn complaints from both Republicans and Democrats,
which is how you know it's working. Okay, probably right,
and so it was interesting to see Schwarzenegger get involved.
I think a few other people may get involved who
are not your usual suspects on this sort of thing.
So I hope that voters are able to at least
(06:55):
understand what the basic question is, which is, do we
believe that district lines in California should be drawn by
politicians or by citizens? And that's the fundamental question.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
So I see a lot of national pundits who aren't
from California that are really high and I mean people
that lean right, who are really high on Gavin Newsom's
chances of becoming president. I feel like, being closer to him,
I'm not as high. Where are you on that?
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Well, Look, I think there's two things here, Jack. First
of all, there's just an absence of strong leadership on
the Democratic side of the aisle. I'd say, people who
are perceived to be out there, and you know, whether
whatever you think of what Nisson's doing, he's out there.
So I think that's the first thing is just, you know,
politics of whores a vacuum, and Newsom has stepped into
(07:44):
that in a very real way. I think the other
reason that people sort of see him positively in particularly
given what he's been doing with this redistricting. Proposition is
you've got to think about the composition of the Democratic
primary electorate and it's going to on average be more activist,
more left of center, and Newsom's politics are a good
match for that. So I think that's probably why people
(08:07):
feel well at national level.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
I agree, what are you doing? I could see him
getting the nomination. That wouldn't surprise me. How can you
run for president with I just feel like the homeless situation,
the people, the fact that people are leaving your state
for the first time ever, a lot of those things.
How do you overcome that? Well?
Speaker 1 (08:24):
I think that's what a campaign is for, right. I
think people need to be reminded. It's very easy. We
have in politics recency bias, and so we look at,
you know, what has someone done in the last sixty
days or last nine minutes, right, and we and we
forget about the French laundry, We forget about all, you know,
his record, we forget about his record in San Francisco,
(08:47):
We forget about his extremely progressive pass which I think
is out of step with the vast majority of the
American people. So that's what a campaign is for a campaign.
Is there to remind people of someone's record and who
they are, and by the way people can say we
know that we're comfortable with it. I don't know that
that's where they'll come out on someone like Gavin Newson.
(09:08):
But let's see, let's see. I mean, like you, Jack,
I think being being in or near California and seeing
him in action up close for the last eight years,
I think we have a point of view that might
be very different from a point of view if if
it hasn't been in your face for the last eight years.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Just curious, since you're a smart guy and you know
policy got a thing you spent a moment of your
life thinking about the Epstein Files. No, no, I don't.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
And I find it interesting how much carry the story
has in the sense that I mean, it just keeps
coming back. It's like, you know, it's like a bad
infection coming back, like I can't think of it. I mean,
that is the sort of analogy I think of because
I just every time I hear about the Epstein Files
(09:58):
or Epstein, I just cringe because I know there's nothing
redeeming about this at all, this discussion about about Epstein.
There is nothing redeeming about it. It doesn't make us
better as a country to have a conversation about the
Epstein files. But you know whatever, people are interested in
what they're interested and I don't want it to mean that,
but for me personally, I have no interest in it.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
I mean, either, what is what is on your radar?
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Well, I mean we've talked a little bit about the
redistricting thing. I think that's a big deal, And then
I am thinking a lot about as we go into
this fall and in the next year. You mentioned the
whole thing with the Federal Reserve and with weightcuts and
what might happen there. I do think the economy, we've
got to kind of see what's happening, because the message
that I keep getting when I talk to you know,
(10:42):
every day at Californians, that that you know, when I'm
around and out. Yeah, I think there are a lot
of people who are who are still having a tough
time given the economy, and they're looking at prices, you know,
still being probably a little higher than they like, and
you kind of wonder how the economy is going to perform.
I'm optimistic about it. I think as we go into
next year, things are going to pick up. But that
(11:03):
is one thing that I that I'm concerned about, what
the collective impact of all of the different policies we've
seen in all of the division at Washington, what that
will mean going into next year. I think that's going
to be an issue worth watching as well.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
He is the Director of Domestic Policy Studies at Stanford
University and all around good and smart. Guyln hee Chen,
thanks for your time today.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Hey, Jack, always great to be with you. Thanks.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if Gavin can pull
off running away from what he has been in California
for all these years. But anyway, we'll have plenty of
We'll have plenty of time to talk about that.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Armstrong and Getty
Hosts And Creators
Joe Getty
Jack Armstrong
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