Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Like on fifty five KRC the talk station, Ay twenty nine.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here fifty five KRCD Talk station. It's Tuesday. It is
that time of week. We get the alliterative alliterative segment
a speak Brian called the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You
can get your Daniel Davis Deep Dive regularly throughout the
week wherever you get your podcasts. We're fortunate to get
his sage wisdom in terms of things military on Tuesdays
at this time, Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, welcome back
to the morning show.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Sir, all right, always a pleasure to be here. Thanks
for having me.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
Are you gotta say?

Speaker 1 (00:29):
I told you so early?

Speaker 2 (00:34):
Now let me get providing the necessary context, because early on,
when people were enthused that this situation with Iran, the war,
the dropping of bombs, you know, the the d heading
of the regime was gonna be akin to a Maduro
like operation, and you were saying, Nope, nope, not gonna happen.
He's a religious fundamentalist. It's not gonna happen. This is

(00:54):
not a similar operation. You regularly and reminded us. It's
the size of two point four times this side of Texas,
lots of real estate there, and they have a lot
of missiles and drone technology, a lot of it that
we don't know about that will allow them to keep
the Straight of Horror Moves closed. Guess what you were right?
Our American military, with all its might, was not able

(01:15):
to open the Straight of Horror Moves on its own.
And I think that speaks volumes to the problems that
you told us about earlier and earlier on in our discussions.
You were right. If we could open the Straight of
Horror Moves, we would have done so by now. Have
I got that right?

Speaker 1 (01:30):
Yeah? Unfortunately, you do have that completely correct.

Speaker 3 (01:33):
Yeah, if we could have, we would have done it,
And if we could do it now, we would still
do it. We wouldn't be going after any kind of
an agreement of any nature at all, especially one where
we don't have all the levers, so we get to
call the shots and set the terms, and we just
don't have it.

Speaker 1 (01:48):
And so Iran is.

Speaker 3 (01:49):
Very well aware of the leverage they have and the
inability that we have to take our profound military power
that we have, which is no kidding, it is substantial,
but for this task to try to take a country
and all the things you just mentioned there, it's just
not enough, no matter how much anybody may wish it
to be so. And so now we're face to face

(02:10):
with that stark reality, and we're gonna have to deal
with something that, Brian, we just haven't had to deal
with in a generation, which is that we don't just
get to call the shots and somebody else has leverage
and we're gonna have to give something to get something.

Speaker 2 (02:23):
Well, I think this speaks volumes to about modern warfare,
does it not that a country like Iran, or literally
any country on the planet, how drug cartels use drones.
These drones have been a massive sea change in military operations.
A country like Iran, with thousands of drones hidden away
in some small buildings and scattered about, can literally blow

(02:45):
up multi billion dollar ships floating around out there in
the straight of horor moves. I mean, that's a fact, Jack,
isn't it.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (02:52):
And that's that's even one of the lesser issues here,
because it's not even though that this drones can hide
in buildings in everywhere, it's that they can underground. And
because Iran has had the foresight to perceive that they
at some point being a war with the United States.
They spent the last twenty years building these underground bunkers,
and we just showed a graphic on our show this

(03:15):
past week of one specific of these underground facilities called
the Yaz Yazd and it's got a graphic that shows
how it's under this huge mountain complex, under multiple layers
of shifting granite formations that have formed The course over
millions of years is way below that. So it is
a physical impossibility for even a nuclear weapon to get

(03:37):
at it. And that's where they have at least thirty
of these things that are operational. According to US intelligence.
You just can't knock them out. Especially you can't just
defeat Iran with airpower loan. It's a physical impossibility and unforcedly. Brian,
part of my frustration is that was well known ahead
of time by our military experts, buyer intelligence, and it

(03:57):
just puzzles me why we went ahead anyway.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
That's a legitimate question to ask, and I think another
legitimate question to asking because you've got great inside resources
and got to applaud you to that or for that,
Donald Trump has already signed on to this agreement. This
memoran of understanding is going to set the terms for
US over the next sixty days to literally negotiate the
most difficult components of whatever we can negotiate with the Iranians.
But we're going to apparently open up the straight We're

(04:21):
gonna let them use their ports. That part over with.
Have you read the agreement? I can't find it anywhere,
Daniel Davis, Well.

Speaker 1 (04:29):
It hasn't been agreed or hasn't been rased anywhere by
the US. That's been the point of frustration.

Speaker 3 (04:34):
And I was just looking scanning just before we came
on the air here, and I'm talking about a lot
of President Trump's biggest allies and biggest supporters. There's a
lot of frustration because we keep talking about this deal
he signed that. He keeps telling everybody how it's better
than the Obama deal and it's incredible in all this,
but no details, none whatsoever.

Speaker 1 (04:53):
Meanwhile, the Uranian side has.

Speaker 3 (04:55):
Released what it says is the text that both sides
signed on to an agreed and believe me, it is
nothing like what President pardon me, what President Trump is saying,
and it's got a lot That's one of the reasons
is supporters are frustrated because they're saying, surely this is
not really the text. It's misinformation, right, because they say until.

Speaker 1 (05:14):
You release it, we don't know.

Speaker 3 (05:16):
And this is the problem of it since this was announced,
is that you have the Iranian side with what their
version is, and if their version is right, it is
a profound strategic failure and loss for us. And it's
hard to imagine President Trump signed on one of those things.
And the alternative is is that later on President Trump says,
here's my version, and it's.

Speaker 1 (05:36):
Different, and then we don't have an agreement at all.
So there's gonna be some fireworks.

Speaker 3 (05:42):
Let me just say, one way or another, there's gonna
be fireworks when President Trump finally releases what he says
is the mutually agreed decision either in a run or
on our side, because I just don't see how those
things work together.

Speaker 2 (05:54):
Well, and the conflicting information we're getting on the Trump side,
we're saying there's not going to be any tolls. The Urritians,
I think, are calling the fees now, so we have
some some manical nonsense going on in there, but they're
gonna insist on charging boats to get through. That's a
situation that didn't exist before the bomb started dropping on Iran.
Now I kind of scratched my head over that. Donald
Trump says, we're not nobody's gonna be paying any any

(06:14):
fees or tolls or whatever you want protection moneies like
I like to refer to it. But if they insist
on that, that's gonna be a real game changer. I
can't imagine him agreeing to that. But here's here's the
question I want to throw in there with that. They
Trump and others keep referring to this window, this sixty
day window to negotiate all these finer, more problematic points

(06:37):
with the Iranians. I am certain my guests chie leaf
reading they're gonna that'll be extended because the devil's in
the details, and they well, I'm sorry, we couldn't hammered out.
Aren't we just trying to get through the November election
with relief on gas prices? Is this really boiled down
to that the American people don't have the willpower to
withstand a longer term battle of attrition. We keep the
ports in the Iran shut down and keep their accomanomy

(07:00):
on its knees over the long term, if we could
last that out, maybe we could win or I mean
that seems our only option right now is a long
term keep them shut down strategy.

Speaker 3 (07:11):
Well, if that's all there was, if it was just
worried about keeping the Iran inside in pain and maybe
eventually they would succumb, that would be one thing, and
you could maybe go on a long term.

Speaker 1 (07:22):
We can't handle that.

Speaker 3 (07:24):
Our economy cannot handle sixty more days of the straight
up ward moves being closed down. I forget about it
into November or anything longer than that. And that's what
Iran is calculating. They're well aware that the pain from
our blockade is profound. And I've talked to a number
of Iranian sources and every one of them said, it
is no joke.

Speaker 1 (07:42):
This is really hurting us.

Speaker 3 (07:43):
It's causing inflation, it's causing a lot of unemployment, a
lot of shortages of.

Speaker 1 (07:48):
Key like medicines and other kind of things.

Speaker 3 (07:50):
They say it is serious, but they say that we're
used to that, we've done it before.

Speaker 1 (07:55):
We can do it again.

Speaker 3 (07:56):
But we calculate you can't that to start the pain
on you is too great. And you mentioned in there
about this issue about the charging tolls. You ran definitely
says that's part of the agreement. We will have the fees,
as we call them. The Iranians say that Trump is
a Greech somewhere between ten and twelve billion dollars upfront
releasing of frozen funds. US says, no, we have it.

(08:19):
The Iranian side has said you're going to give us
three hundred billion dollars in reparations. President Trump says, no,
we're not. So those are profoundly incompatible. And then there's
the biggest issue of all, and that's the Israeli situation,
because Israeli people are furious that apparently that Yahoo's going
to be forced to stop operations, to withdraw from Lebanon,

(08:42):
which they say is integral to their national security. And
they say, we're not going to abide by that if
that's the term, because it's our national security. So how
does all this fit together?

Speaker 1 (08:52):
Brian?

Speaker 3 (08:52):
That's why I say there will be fireworks whenever Trump finally.

Speaker 1 (08:55):
Releases whatever he says are the terms.

Speaker 2 (08:58):
Wow, there's so much to take in on that, and
none of it honestly looks very good. I just keep
going back. The price of gasoline obviously is really impacting
the American people aren't willing to deal with just the
increase in price of gasoline.

Speaker 1 (09:11):
But as you.

Speaker 2 (09:12):
Suggest, this is a global issue that's straight is so
vitally important to the global economy, and maybe there's something
to be learned on that down the road. Perhaps in
the future we can do a workaround. Maybe we can
get more pipelines to get the oil out of there
in ways that don't require the strait of horror moves.
Because Daniel Davis, the IR audience know that at any
moment in time, if somebody rubs them the wrong way

(09:34):
or they get a whatever objective they want to achieve,
they get to shut it down again.

Speaker 1 (09:39):
Yeah, you've broken the rubicon here. And they thought about this.

Speaker 3 (09:43):
This has been a concern for forty seven years that
they could do this, but they never did do it
because they calculated the cost would be too high or whatever.
But once it was thrust upon them, that was the
only leverage they had. But now then they've used it
and they've seen how successful it is and how we
can't force it out. I guarante ge that if they
get rubbed the wrong way, that will be not far

(10:04):
from their mind. That will be like right up front.
So we're in a new age here, and something's gonna
have to be different. But it's going to be many
years before we can get to those workarounds.

Speaker 1 (10:13):
But we got to get this deal solved first.

Speaker 2 (10:15):
Okay, fair enough, Now the other component I want to
talk with you real briefly about Daniel Davis, the China
and India issue. Now, as I understand it, China has
a vested interest with keeping the Iranian regime.

Speaker 1 (10:27):
The Indians.

Speaker 2 (10:27):
They're happy with the Irani regime as well, because of
course there are thorns in the United States side, but
they've also they're probably being hit harder than anybody else,
as I've learned China, for example, with the stoppage of
the flow of oil out of Iran. It seems to me,
why don't they have some vested interest in maybe wiping
out the regime themselves or otherwise convincing the Iranians that

(10:48):
it's important for them to stop this nonsense so they
can get their oil and we can return to some
regular order.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
Well, let me tell you about.

Speaker 3 (10:55):
What the Chinese have done, because they also have foreseen
this possibility, and they had a massive strategic petroleum reserves.

Speaker 1 (11:03):
I forget the numbers that.

Speaker 3 (11:04):
Ours are, but there are like five times larger than
ours are.

Speaker 1 (11:08):
So what they have done is nobody expected to do.

Speaker 3 (11:10):
Which is why the lid's been kept on or somewhere
even close to one hundred dollars a barrel since this started.
Is because they have started importing like five million barrels
of oil per day less than they did before, choosing
instead to draw down their patroleum reserve because they had
so much, because they bought at a very very low price,
so their calculation is, hey, let's just use that for

(11:32):
now instead of paying this higher price we would get
on the open market.

Speaker 1 (11:36):
Well, that has helped.

Speaker 3 (11:37):
All of us because now then this otherwise like twenty
million barrel today shortfall that would have happened has been
reduced to about fifteen. And then you have demand destruction
in other places, and the some of stuff going on
in India and Indonesia, in South Korea, Japan where they're
already cutting back.

Speaker 1 (11:55):
So all that together has kind of kept the lid on.
But if China decides we're not going to do that anymore,
we're not going to draw that down now, then.

Speaker 3 (12:02):
Where everybody has a huge spike in global oil process
because there's just not enough supply. But there's a limit
to how far China can go on that, as there
is these other kinds of things as well, And so
I think that as I'm reading the Tvas, so to speak,
Johina is saying, all right, we're going to go a
pretty good period of time on this, but then there's
going to have to be something done. And I think

(12:23):
they have calculated the damage to American prestige is worth
the draw down here because Trump is out there flapping
in the wind and China can actually say, hey, we've
been trying to help out. You know, we're trying to
you know, do you guys have favor here? But that's
got a limit, and it won't put pressure on Iran.
They'll put pressure on us alone with all these other

(12:43):
people that are suffering, like in Europe, Black and Asia,
like in Africa. So I think that their calculation is
it's going to be putting more pressure on us.

Speaker 1 (12:51):
Not less.

Speaker 2 (12:52):
Truly appreciate your analysis on this, as I have from
well since we've been talking together on all matters, and
you've been prescient on the whole thing, and I applaud
you for your accuracy of information. As bad as the
news is, you've been a cold water dose reality and
somebody needs support on people sometimes.

Speaker 1 (13:08):
Daniel, Yeah, we do.

Speaker 3 (13:11):
We got to get this thing off the table. Brian,
and I'm advocating right now that the President trunk just.

Speaker 1 (13:15):
Forget about a deal. Don't just say, hey, we've caused
him so much damage.

Speaker 3 (13:20):
We won he said that before, and then leave, because
then you don't have to worry about are there any reparations,
are there any money given up front? You just leave,
You take the blockade away because we need that open,
and then we just have to live with the consequences
because otherwise he's going to have a fire storm at
home and we'll have to see how he navigates that.

Speaker 2 (13:38):
There's no question about it. Popcorn remains out Daniel Davis
Deep Dive. Wherever you get your podcasts, find Daniel Davis
and tune into the fifty five Cavy Kearrase Morning Show
every Tuesday at eight thirty. Take Care of My Friend.
We'll talk next week.