Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
You all know that I love the NFL, the Broncos,
who apparently are not playing this weekend, and I'm a
data nerd. I love numbers and statistics and probabilities and
all this stuff. So I'm super excited to have joining
(00:20):
me for the first time on KOA Rick Weiner, who
does who does statistics for Broncos road games, but for
the second year in a row, he's going to be
keeping stats for the Kansas City Chiefs Spanish language broadcast.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
And you've seen.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Or heard Rick or his work on basically all the
major sports broadcasting networks. So let's nerd out together. Hi, Rick,
Welcome to KOA again.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Thanks, it's good to be with you. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Are you sitting in New Orleans right now?
Speaker 2 (00:53):
I am.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
Indeed, I am in the Convention Center as we speak,
and I fortunately found a quiet place, which is always
an easy thing to do in New Orleans, but I
found a good spot for us to talk today.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
So before we get into specific stuff about the Super
Bowl and score Agami's and all, you're a medical doctor, right.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
That is correct, a psychiatrist in real life.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
And you're still practicing. You have patients.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
I do.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
I have been in private practice forty years, believe it
or not. And it's been an interesting, you know, combination
of doing the psychiatry my day job, you might say,
and they're doing stats. I often say that I bring
new meaning to the term analyst in the booth when
I am.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Working at a game, and.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
It's been great fun. I always tell people it's my
therapy to work at games. And I've been working at
games since I was fifteen years old, so it's been
a long, long ride, but a great one.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
So in addition to the you know, the medical science
of your brain, are are you a numbers nerd?
Speaker 3 (02:06):
You could say that when it comes to sports, and
certainly with football, it's gotten that way because I work
so many football games.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Yeah, I really enjoy it.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
I always like to look for things that help explain
with the numbers why a game is going the way
it's going.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
I always have that feeling. No two games are alike.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
You never see the same one twice, and I kind
of asked myself, you know, well, why is this game
different from all these others and why is it going
the way that it's going. So that's a question that
I sort of asked myself throughout the course of the
game when I'm looking for trends of the game, possible records,
and just kind of quirky stats that might come up
along the way too.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
All Right, we'll get to that in one second. So
just one other thing I want to ask you. So
you're doing the Spanish language broadcast for the Super Bowl
for the Chiefs. How do you need to know Spanish
to do that? How did you get connected with the
Spanish language broadcast to begin with?
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Well, I'm from Kansas City originally, and I had met
the Spanish network announcers last year and we had talked
about the idea of me possibly working postseason games with them,
and I ended up doing the AFC Championship game in
Baltimore with them, and then the Super.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Bowl in Vegas.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
So I guess I was a good luck charm in
a sense for them, so they figured, well, if they're
going back, let's do it again.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
So I've done their broadcast for the postseason.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Games against both Houston and then against Buffalo, So I
guess they're hoping I can make it five in a
row with them in postseason by working the game this weekend.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
So when you're doing this for that broadcast in particular,
do you go on the air or do you know?
Speaker 3 (03:47):
No, No, I have a headset much like I do
when I'm working with the Dave and Rick during the
Broncos broadcasts, and I give them information as we go along.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Of course, I'll write.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Down notes and sticky note cards and index cards come
in handy during the course of a broadcast. Fortunately they
are bilingual, the chiefs announcers. I'm pretty good on numbers
in Spanish, but my six years of French that much
help when it comes to working with it. I'm glad
I don't have to explain things in Spanish, but the
(04:18):
numbers I'm usually pretty okay with.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
That's funny.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Yeah, six or seven years of French for me too.
And by the way, folks, if you want to ask
the Broncos stats guy a question about football stats, Broncos stats,
super Bowl stats, any of it, text me your questions
at five six, six nine zero. And as always I
do not guarantee to ask every question, but I will
do my best to ask the good ones, so as
(04:43):
you head into as we head into this Super Bowl,
first let me start with my own stats question, and
then I want to ask you what you're looking at it,
so as a Broncos fan, I don't want the Chiefs
to win, But I also think that the Philadelphia Eagles
have the worst fans in the United States of America,
(05:06):
and so I want them to lose two. And I
just I haven't gone through to look at the data,
but I'm curious if you can tell me in what
percent of the previous fifty eight Super Bowls that we
have had, in what percent of those have both teams lost,
because I don't think it's happened too many times.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
I don't think it has either.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
I mean, we've had two games now that went through
four quarters of play and neither team had lost at
that point. We've had two overtime Super Bowls, but other
than that, no, I think there's usually a winner and
a team that doesn't win. But we didn't have an
overtime game in the Super Bowl until Super Bowl fifty
one when the Bronco Broncos. But when the Patriots came
(05:47):
back from a twenty five points episode against the chief
against I'm saying the Chiefs, I'm getting the two teams
mixed up against the Falcons and then ended up winning
an overtime and then last year's game when the forty
nine ers got the ball to open over time, but
the Chiefs came back and got a touchdown instead of
a field goal to win that game. So we've had
two overtime games, but those are the only two, and
(06:08):
teams were at least tied at the end of sixty
minutes of play.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Yeah, if you can find a way to cause them
both to lose, please let me know, and I'd.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Be very grateful for that.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
So let's jump in a little more now. As you're
doing your prep for this game and thinking about key
statistics that you think will really play a role in
this game, or that you're keeping an eye on, or
that are just fascinating, what are some of the top
things on your mind right now.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Well, a couple of things jump out.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
For one thing, it's important to look at how the
two teams have been playing. But I also like to
look at trends that have occurred in the super Bowl itself.
I've really compiled my own record book, you might say,
about the Super Bowl, and there are certain things that
kind of jump out at you that are more predictive,
you might say, of who's going to win the game
in the Super Bowl. Probably the most predictive stat is
(07:00):
winning the turnover battle and winning points off of turnovers.
That has only been the reverse in seven of the
fifty eight games so far, so that's a real good
predictor some other things aren't terribly predictive. For example, a
time of possession. You know, we've seen it where for example,
when the Rams won a SUPERWL thirty four against Tennessee,
(07:24):
they had the ball in twenty two minutes and thirty
four seconds and yet they won the game because they
ended up with a really big play to win the
game with They're winning touchdown put warner to Isaac Grooce
for example. Meanwhile, Tennessee ran in a ton of plays
but they didn't end up getting the win. So time
of possession is probably less predictive. But one of the
(07:45):
things I also look for are one of the trends
in the postseason this year, and one of the things
that really jumps out is indeed turnovers. That the games
that have been played thus far, and we've had twelve
games in the postseason, the winning teams are plus twenty
one in turnovers. The winning teams have only turned the
(08:06):
ball over four times, while the losing teams have turned
it over twenty five times, so that's a huge discrepancy.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
And in fact, when the.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Chiefs defeated Buffalo week and a half ago, that was
the only time so far in the postseason that a
team was on the minus side on the turnover ratio
and ended up winning the game. Chiefs had one turnover,
the Buffalo did not. So I know that's something that
I think really jumps out. The points off turnovers so far,
(08:36):
it's staggering. There only been ten points squared off turnovers
by the losing teams, while the winning teams have scored
sixty one I think it is now, so it's i'm sorry,
sixty one to three, not sixty one to ten. So
I mean that's just a major, major item. One thing
that also jumps out. With respect to the two teams,
(08:57):
you can't help but notice with Philadelphia with their running
game obviously say Barkley, a huge difference over what they
had a couple of years ago. When you know, Hurts
was arguably the best player on the field when the
two teams.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Played in the Super Bowl two years ago.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
But to think that so far in this season, Philadelphia
has had twenty three twenty yard rushes and I don't
know of another team in the league has had much
more than ten. I mean, the Chiefs have only had
in the regular season, they had I think it was nine.
(09:36):
So the capability of the big rushing plays certainly stands
out be interesting to see if the Chiefs can hold
that down with Barkley as well as with Hearts. So,
you know, that to me is really staggering that the
Eagles have had seventy five explosive plays of twenty yards
or more counting pass plays as well as rushing plays,
(09:59):
and that's that's just a tremendous number. And you compare
that a to to Chiefs who have had fifty. And
the Chiefs, you know, we kind of think of them
when they first started really getting good with Mahomes that
they had all these explosive plays, they had Tyreek Hill
as a receiver, but they really have not gone the
(10:20):
explosive player route all that much so far this season.
So you know, those are just a couple of things
that really sort of jump out at me. And one
of the things we've seen so far in the postseason,
which I think is sort of interesting. Scoring first hasn't
necessarily been a blessing to the teams. In the twelve
games that have been played in the postseason, the team
(10:41):
scoring first is only six and six.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
The second quarter has.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Really turned it around because the team leading at half
is eleven and oh with one game being tied at halftime.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Well, you know, it all kind of goes along.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
With what we've seen just historically with the Super Bowl
that the first order is the lowest scoring quarter of
the four in the Super Bowl, and the second quarter
has typically been the highest scoring. So that's something that
you can kind of watch for. I mean, teams generally
get up to a pretty slow start when the Super
Bowl's played. Only twelve teams out of the fifty nine games,
(11:18):
so one hundred and eighteen opportunities have scored on the
opening drive of a game, so it's it's not real common.
Although it's interesting. When these two teams played two years ago,
both teams scored touchdowns on their opening drives and that
is very unusual in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
A bunch of my listeners are wondering whether you bet
on sports.
Speaker 3 (11:43):
No, the answer is no, and I don't play fantasy
football either. I think I see enough of it in
reality that I really don't go in for the fantasy part,
but no, I do not bet on sports.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
I never have.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
It's kind of fun to try to predict to you, you think,
but I'm probably not any better at doing that than
somebody throwing a dart at a dartboard and trying to
figure it out.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
So one of the things that I asked you by
email when we were setting up this conversation is what
are the odds of a score agami? And I'm wondering
if you've had time to do a little homework or
maybe you knew the answer already when I asked you
the question.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
Well, I did both.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
I knew part of that answer, and I also did
some additional homework to address that question. And for those
who might not be familiar with the score agami idea,
it's basically having a game that ends in a score
that has never happened before, and there are I think
it's just under fourteen hundred score possibilities that haven't happened
(12:50):
yet with a team scoring up to I think it
was like fifty six points if I'm not mistaken. So
there were seven Scora gami's during the season so far
going up until this Sunday. Six during the regular season
and one in the postseason, the Houston LA Chargers game.
(13:12):
It ended thirty two to twelve. That was the first
time that a game had ever ended with that score.
But one of the odds of that happening. It's happened
three times in the Super Bowl, and amazingly enough, the
Broncos were involved in all three of those. Not necessarily
a good thing, mind you.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
Now we lost all of them. Yeah, those were all losses.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
The most recent one that was a score of gami
was a Super Bowl forty eight when Seattle defeated the
Broncos forty three to eight. That was the first time
that had ever happened. And then in prior Super Bowls
when the Giants defeated the Broncos thirty nine to twenty,
that was a score of gami. And then going back
a little bit further, when the forty nine Ers defeated
(13:55):
the Broncos fifty five to ten, that two was a
score of goami. And interesting enough, since those games were played,
there haven't been any other games that have ended with
those scores, So the scoragamis have held up. Yeah, I'd
say so. We're talking about three out of fifty eight
games so far, so it's just a.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
And of course I would not I would note that
as the as the as the game progresses over the years,
score Agami's get rarer because more and more games have
been played and there are fewer available available scores. I mean,
obviously some scores remain very very rare, Like what you
just said, none of those scores have ever been repeated.
(14:37):
And we just have about two minutes about two minutes left.
And for those just joining, by the way, we're talking
with Rick Winer, who does the road game statistics for
the Broncos, and he's covering statistics for the Kansas City
Chief Spanish language broadcast on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (14:51):
So so, and the reason this came.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Up a listener texted me a betting line on Scoreagami
and if you want to bet, yes that there will
be one. I think it paid twenty eight to one.
And I think if you wanted to bet, know, you
had to give one hundred to one. So the right
odds are probably fifty or sixty or seventy to one.
But what have you found.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
Well, I mean, it could happen, and I think it's
been more likely to happen for two main reasons in
recent years, one is the two point conversion, So games
ending with eight, for example, or something that's divisible by eight,
we're seeing a little bit more of that. Plus we've
seen some higher scoring games. I mean, when you look
(15:34):
at the six regular season games that were scoring gamis
of this past season, the fewest points scored by a
winning team was thirty two, and we had three games
when the winning team scored in the forties and then
the Lions scored fifty two in a fifty two to
six win over Jacksonville. So the fact that the offenses
(15:57):
have gotten so good in many instances a lot of
high scoring games, it's more likely you're going to see
it on the high end of the scoring as opposed
to a really low end. We haven't seen a four
to nothing game yet, let's put it that way.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
But what do you think the odds are? You know, however,
many to one, just one number, what's the probability.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Of this happens?
Speaker 3 (16:17):
If it's been just over five percent so far in
the Super Bowl, then you know, if you want to
go based on that, what do you think twenty to one,
twenty five to one, I'm not sure it's not very likely.
It tends and like I say it tends to happen
when one team really scores a lot of points.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
I mean the three that have happened.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
In the Super Bowl, the winning teams have scored thirty nine,
forty three, and fifty five points. So do I think
at a game a game's going to end up with
that highest score? I had added, I mean as high
power as the offenses were. When the two teams played
two years ago was a thirty eight to thirty five game,
which certainly was not a scorer. It got me, so
I have my doubts, but it's certainly fun to kind
(16:59):
of keep an eye on that.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
It sure is, It absolutely is.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Rick Weiner does statistics for the Denver Broncos road games.
He's covering Spanish language broadcast for the Kansas City Chiefs
in this Super Bowl for the second year in a row.
Have fun, Rereck, Thanks for your time. I know you'll
be back on KAWA with Mandy tomorrow, so she'll have
lots of more interesting nerdy questions for you.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
I'll look forward to it. Thanks very much, all right,
we'll see you
You all know that I love the NFL, the Broncos,
who apparently are not playing this weekend, and I'm a
data nerd. I love numbers and statistics and probabilities and
all this stuff. So I'm super excited to have joining
(00:20):
me for the first time on KOA Rick Weiner, who
does who does statistics for Broncos road games, but for
the second year in a row, he's going to be
keeping stats for the Kansas City Chiefs Spanish language broadcast.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
And you've seen.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Or heard Rick or his work on basically all the
major sports broadcasting networks. So let's nerd out together. Hi, Rick,
Welcome to KOA again.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Thanks, it's good to be with you. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Are you sitting in New Orleans right now?
Speaker 2 (00:53):
I am.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
Indeed, I am in the Convention Center as we speak,
and I fortunately found a quiet place, which is always
an easy thing to do in New Orleans, but I
found a good spot for us to talk today.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
So before we get into specific stuff about the Super
Bowl and score Agami's and all, you're a medical doctor, right.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
That is correct, a psychiatrist in real life.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
And you're still practicing. You have patients.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
I do.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
I have been in private practice forty years, believe it
or not. And it's been an interesting, you know, combination
of doing the psychiatry my day job, you might say,
and they're doing stats. I often say that I bring
new meaning to the term analyst in the booth when
I am.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Working at a game, and.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
It's been great fun. I always tell people it's my
therapy to work at games. And I've been working at
games since I was fifteen years old, so it's been
a long, long ride, but a great one.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
So in addition to the you know, the medical science
of your brain, are are you a numbers nerd?
Speaker 3 (02:06):
You could say that when it comes to sports, and
certainly with football, it's gotten that way because I work
so many football games.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Yeah, I really enjoy it.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
I always like to look for things that help explain
with the numbers why a game is going the way
it's going.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
I always have that feeling. No two games are alike.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
You never see the same one twice, and I kind
of asked myself, you know, well, why is this game
different from all these others and why is it going
the way that it's going. So that's a question that
I sort of asked myself throughout the course of the
game when I'm looking for trends of the game, possible records,
and just kind of quirky stats that might come up
along the way too.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
All Right, we'll get to that in one second. So
just one other thing I want to ask you. So
you're doing the Spanish language broadcast for the Super Bowl
for the Chiefs. How do you need to know Spanish
to do that? How did you get connected with the
Spanish language broadcast to begin with?
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Well, I'm from Kansas City originally, and I had met
the Spanish network announcers last year and we had talked
about the idea of me possibly working postseason games with them,
and I ended up doing the AFC Championship game in
Baltimore with them, and then the Super.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Bowl in Vegas.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
So I guess I was a good luck charm in
a sense for them, so they figured, well, if they're
going back, let's do it again.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
So I've done their broadcast for the postseason.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Games against both Houston and then against Buffalo, So I
guess they're hoping I can make it five in a
row with them in postseason by working the game this weekend.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
So when you're doing this for that broadcast in particular,
do you go on the air or do you know?
Speaker 3 (03:47):
No, No, I have a headset much like I do
when I'm working with the Dave and Rick during the
Broncos broadcasts, and I give them information as we go along.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Of course, I'll write.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Down notes and sticky note cards and index cards come
in handy during the course of a broadcast. Fortunately they
are bilingual, the chiefs announcers. I'm pretty good on numbers
in Spanish, but my six years of French that much
help when it comes to working with it. I'm glad
I don't have to explain things in Spanish, but the
(04:18):
numbers I'm usually pretty okay with.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
That's funny.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Yeah, six or seven years of French for me too.
And by the way, folks, if you want to ask
the Broncos stats guy a question about football stats, Broncos stats,
super Bowl stats, any of it, text me your questions
at five six, six nine zero. And as always I
do not guarantee to ask every question, but I will
do my best to ask the good ones, so as
(04:43):
you head into as we head into this Super Bowl,
first let me start with my own stats question, and
then I want to ask you what you're looking at it,
so as a Broncos fan, I don't want the Chiefs
to win, But I also think that the Philadelphia Eagles
have the worst fans in the United States of America,
(05:06):
and so I want them to lose two. And I
just I haven't gone through to look at the data,
but I'm curious if you can tell me in what
percent of the previous fifty eight Super Bowls that we
have had, in what percent of those have both teams lost,
because I don't think it's happened too many times.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
I don't think it has either.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
I mean, we've had two games now that went through
four quarters of play and neither team had lost at
that point. We've had two overtime Super Bowls, but other
than that, no, I think there's usually a winner and
a team that doesn't win. But we didn't have an
overtime game in the Super Bowl until Super Bowl fifty
one when the Bronco Broncos. But when the Patriots came
(05:47):
back from a twenty five points episode against the chief
against I'm saying the Chiefs, I'm getting the two teams
mixed up against the Falcons and then ended up winning
an overtime and then last year's game when the forty
nine ers got the ball to open over time, but
the Chiefs came back and got a touchdown instead of
a field goal to win that game. So we've had
two overtime games, but those are the only two, and
(06:08):
teams were at least tied at the end of sixty
minutes of play.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Yeah, if you can find a way to cause them
both to lose, please let me know, and I'd.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Be very grateful for that.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
So let's jump in a little more now. As you're
doing your prep for this game and thinking about key
statistics that you think will really play a role in
this game, or that you're keeping an eye on, or
that are just fascinating, what are some of the top
things on your mind right now.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Well, a couple of things jump out.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
For one thing, it's important to look at how the
two teams have been playing. But I also like to
look at trends that have occurred in the super Bowl itself.
I've really compiled my own record book, you might say,
about the Super Bowl, and there are certain things that
kind of jump out at you that are more predictive,
you might say, of who's going to win the game
in the Super Bowl. Probably the most predictive stat is
(07:00):
winning the turnover battle and winning points off of turnovers.
That has only been the reverse in seven of the
fifty eight games so far, so that's a real good
predictor some other things aren't terribly predictive. For example, a
time of possession. You know, we've seen it where for example,
when the Rams won a SUPERWL thirty four against Tennessee,
(07:24):
they had the ball in twenty two minutes and thirty
four seconds and yet they won the game because they
ended up with a really big play to win the
game with They're winning touchdown put warner to Isaac Grooce
for example. Meanwhile, Tennessee ran in a ton of plays
but they didn't end up getting the win. So time
of possession is probably less predictive. But one of the
(07:45):
things I also look for are one of the trends
in the postseason this year, and one of the things
that really jumps out is indeed turnovers. That the games
that have been played thus far, and we've had twelve
games in the postseason, the winning teams are plus twenty
one in turnovers. The winning teams have only turned the
(08:06):
ball over four times, while the losing teams have turned
it over twenty five times, so that's a huge discrepancy.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
And in fact, when the.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Chiefs defeated Buffalo week and a half ago, that was
the only time so far in the postseason that a
team was on the minus side on the turnover ratio
and ended up winning the game. Chiefs had one turnover,
the Buffalo did not. So I know that's something that
I think really jumps out. The points off turnovers so far,
(08:36):
it's staggering. There only been ten points squared off turnovers
by the losing teams, while the winning teams have scored
sixty one I think it is now, so it's i'm sorry,
sixty one to three, not sixty one to ten. So
I mean that's just a major, major item. One thing
that also jumps out. With respect to the two teams,
(08:57):
you can't help but notice with Philadelphia with their running
game obviously say Barkley, a huge difference over what they
had a couple of years ago. When you know, Hurts
was arguably the best player on the field when the
two teams.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Played in the Super Bowl two years ago.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
But to think that so far in this season, Philadelphia
has had twenty three twenty yard rushes and I don't
know of another team in the league has had much
more than ten. I mean, the Chiefs have only had
in the regular season, they had I think it was nine.
(09:36):
So the capability of the big rushing plays certainly stands
out be interesting to see if the Chiefs can hold
that down with Barkley as well as with Hearts. So,
you know, that to me is really staggering that the
Eagles have had seventy five explosive plays of twenty yards
or more counting pass plays as well as rushing plays,
(09:59):
and that's that's just a tremendous number. And you compare
that a to to Chiefs who have had fifty. And
the Chiefs, you know, we kind of think of them
when they first started really getting good with Mahomes that
they had all these explosive plays, they had Tyreek Hill
as a receiver, but they really have not gone the
(10:20):
explosive player route all that much so far this season.
So you know, those are just a couple of things
that really sort of jump out at me. And one
of the things we've seen so far in the postseason,
which I think is sort of interesting. Scoring first hasn't
necessarily been a blessing to the teams. In the twelve
games that have been played in the postseason, the team
(10:41):
scoring first is only six and six.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
The second quarter has.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Really turned it around because the team leading at half
is eleven and oh with one game being tied at halftime.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Well, you know, it all kind of goes along.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
With what we've seen just historically with the Super Bowl
that the first order is the lowest scoring quarter of
the four in the Super Bowl, and the second quarter
has typically been the highest scoring. So that's something that
you can kind of watch for. I mean, teams generally
get up to a pretty slow start when the Super
Bowl's played. Only twelve teams out of the fifty nine games,
(11:18):
so one hundred and eighteen opportunities have scored on the
opening drive of a game, so it's it's not real common.
Although it's interesting. When these two teams played two years ago,
both teams scored touchdowns on their opening drives and that
is very unusual in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
A bunch of my listeners are wondering whether you bet
on sports.
Speaker 3 (11:43):
No, the answer is no, and I don't play fantasy
football either. I think I see enough of it in
reality that I really don't go in for the fantasy part,
but no, I do not bet on sports.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
I never have.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
It's kind of fun to try to predict to you, you think,
but I'm probably not any better at doing that than
somebody throwing a dart at a dartboard and trying to
figure it out.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
So one of the things that I asked you by
email when we were setting up this conversation is what
are the odds of a score agami? And I'm wondering
if you've had time to do a little homework or
maybe you knew the answer already when I asked you
the question.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
Well, I did both.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
I knew part of that answer, and I also did
some additional homework to address that question. And for those
who might not be familiar with the score agami idea,
it's basically having a game that ends in a score
that has never happened before, and there are I think
it's just under fourteen hundred score possibilities that haven't happened
(12:50):
yet with a team scoring up to I think it
was like fifty six points if I'm not mistaken. So
there were seven Scora gami's during the season so far
going up until this Sunday. Six during the regular season
and one in the postseason, the Houston LA Chargers game.
(13:12):
It ended thirty two to twelve. That was the first
time that a game had ever ended with that score.
But one of the odds of that happening. It's happened
three times in the Super Bowl, and amazingly enough, the
Broncos were involved in all three of those. Not necessarily
a good thing, mind you.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
Now we lost all of them. Yeah, those were all losses.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
The most recent one that was a score of gami
was a Super Bowl forty eight when Seattle defeated the
Broncos forty three to eight. That was the first time
that had ever happened. And then in prior Super Bowls
when the Giants defeated the Broncos thirty nine to twenty,
that was a score of gami. And then going back
a little bit further, when the forty nine Ers defeated
(13:55):
the Broncos fifty five to ten, that two was a
score of goami. And interesting enough, since those games were played,
there haven't been any other games that have ended with
those scores, So the scoragamis have held up. Yeah, I'd
say so. We're talking about three out of fifty eight
games so far, so it's just a.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
And of course I would not I would note that
as the as the as the game progresses over the years,
score Agami's get rarer because more and more games have
been played and there are fewer available available scores. I mean,
obviously some scores remain very very rare, Like what you
just said, none of those scores have ever been repeated.
(14:37):
And we just have about two minutes about two minutes left.
And for those just joining, by the way, we're talking
with Rick Winer, who does the road game statistics for
the Broncos, and he's covering statistics for the Kansas City
Chief Spanish language broadcast on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (14:51):
So so, and the reason this came.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Up a listener texted me a betting line on Scoreagami
and if you want to bet, yes that there will
be one. I think it paid twenty eight to one.
And I think if you wanted to bet, know, you
had to give one hundred to one. So the right
odds are probably fifty or sixty or seventy to one.
But what have you found.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
Well, I mean, it could happen, and I think it's
been more likely to happen for two main reasons in
recent years, one is the two point conversion, So games
ending with eight, for example, or something that's divisible by eight,
we're seeing a little bit more of that. Plus we've
seen some higher scoring games. I mean, when you look
(15:34):
at the six regular season games that were scoring gamis
of this past season, the fewest points scored by a
winning team was thirty two, and we had three games
when the winning team scored in the forties and then
the Lions scored fifty two in a fifty two to
six win over Jacksonville. So the fact that the offenses
(15:57):
have gotten so good in many instances a lot of
high scoring games, it's more likely you're going to see
it on the high end of the scoring as opposed
to a really low end. We haven't seen a four
to nothing game yet, let's put it that way.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
But what do you think the odds are? You know, however,
many to one, just one number, what's the probability.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Of this happens?
Speaker 3 (16:17):
If it's been just over five percent so far in
the Super Bowl, then you know, if you want to
go based on that, what do you think twenty to one,
twenty five to one, I'm not sure it's not very likely.
It tends and like I say it tends to happen
when one team really scores a lot of points.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
I mean the three that have happened.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
In the Super Bowl, the winning teams have scored thirty nine,
forty three, and fifty five points. So do I think
at a game a game's going to end up with
that highest score? I had added, I mean as high
power as the offenses were. When the two teams played
two years ago was a thirty eight to thirty five game,
which certainly was not a scorer. It got me, so
I have my doubts, but it's certainly fun to kind
(16:59):
of keep an eye on that.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
It sure is, It absolutely is.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Rick Weiner does statistics for the Denver Broncos road games.
He's covering Spanish language broadcast for the Kansas City Chiefs
in this Super Bowl for the second year in a row.
Have fun, Rereck, Thanks for your time. I know you'll
be back on KAWA with Mandy tomorrow, so she'll have
lots of more interesting nerdy questions for you.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
I'll look forward to it. Thanks very much, all right,
we'll see you
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