June 21, 2020 • 53 mins
DailyRoto Hour is back as host Davis Mattek is joined by Ricky Sanders as the guys start their NFL team by team previews looking into each team's value in fantasy, the betting market and DFS. Ricky and Davis start in the NFC North and the guys are high on a certain QB who doesn't get much love.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:22):
and welcome to the Daily Roado Hour here on Sports
Grade TV. I'm David's Maddock joined by Ricky Sanders, and
as we are getting ever closer to the NFL season,
we thought that now would be an appropriate time to
start going through division by division, team by team and
doing full NFL team previews. And Ricky, because you are
(00:44):
a fan of the Chicago Bears and you live in
a state that now, I mean as of literally what
two hours ago, you live in a state with with
legal live mobile batting. How does that feel? Oh? It
feels excellent. Let's let's put it that way. I mean,
just reading the tweets of everyone reacting to it has
been fun. And I mean, in true Chicago fashion, Homeroism
(01:09):
has already started as people have started to pour in
on the bets for the over on the Bears wind total,
which is hilarious. Those are like basically all the first
bets that the sports bets have taken have been massive
bets on the Bears. Over there you go, So let's
let's go ahead and take a look at the Bears
from a fansy. Well, well, you know, we'll talk fantasy football,
(01:31):
we'll talk betting, we'll talk, you know, just a little
bit about everything. First off, Ricky, who do you think
starts the most games at quarterback for the Bears. I
feel like I'm all of a sudden in the minority
thinking that it's Nick Foles. I don't think they would
have gone out and gotten him, and I don't think
that Naggi has this relationship with him and says such
(01:53):
positive things for Mitch Trabisky to be the guy who
leads the team and starts. Now, obviously injury, coronavirus, there's
just a million things that could lead to by accident,
Mitch Trobinsky having to step in. But I think, assuming
full health, I think it's Nick Foles who's the guy here.
I just think you watched Mitch Trabinsky throw the football
(02:13):
last year and he had he basically reminded you of
a Blake Bortles. I mean, he was a guy who
who graded basically outside the top twenty five according to
Pro Football Focus in terms of just his overall play,
which is not a good NFL starting quarterback. So basically,
what do you have to lose switching to someone else?
And you've got this naggy system that you know, really
focuses on the short routes. You get these guys in
(02:36):
the uh in the you know posts that I think
will be a good fit for Nick Foles. We saw
him kind of get it done with D D. Westbrooks.
So the guys playing inside receiver, I think we'll have
a bunch of you know, open lanes and maybe potentially
a quarterback who can get them the ball. I just
think it's a good fit for the system. And I think,
you know, all the context around it is nick Foles
(02:58):
was brought in to be the guy. So I tend
to agree with you. I don't think Nick Foles was
brought in to be the guy. I disagree with that statement.
I think if Nick Foles was gonna be the guy,
we would have seen some evidence of that. But you know,
the Eagles didn't think he was the guy. The Rams
didn't think he was the guy. The Jaguars, you know,
chose to go with Gardner Minshew instead. Like they're they're
(03:21):
just there's been a lot of chances for Nick Foles
is basically what I'm saying. There's been a lot of
opportunities for him to be the guy. He's never been
the guy. Now that being said, does that mean that
he is can't? Does that mean that he cannot be
the guy and still be better than Mitch Drabinsky? And
I think the answer to that is yes. I think
Trabinsky was so offensively bad last season for the Bears that,
(03:45):
you know, I just I just don't really, I don't
really see a path to you know, them giving him
a contract extension, to him being on a uh, you know,
a ten win team or anything like that. Like, I just,
I just I think the Traubinsky era has come and
gone and he is going to be a a career
long backup. However, wouldn't surprise me if it ended up
(04:06):
kind of being a split, like Fools gets eight games,
Trabisky gets six games. Actually, you know what it kind
of reminds me of is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from
teen where once the starting quarterback through two interceptions, they
brought the other guy in and then played that guy
until he threw two interceptions. We might see some sort
of tandem like that for for Trabisky and Fols. Yeah,
(04:28):
I think that's within the range of outcomes. We're talking
about a quarterback that was six yards per tempt last year,
and I just think Nick Foles with these slot receivers.
You now have Ted ginn who was extremely quick, you
brought in Darnell Mooney. I think these are the kind
of receivers and we've seen by the way Nick Foles
succeed with tight ends, of which the Bears currently have ten.
(04:50):
But of course we think Jimmy Graham's gonna be the
red zone guy. Cole Comet is the project. I think
the inside sort of receivers are the ones that have
worked with Nick Foles. I think Naggie, you know, kind
of sought out a guy who he viewed to be
affordable and a short term solution that could work in
his system to not get him fired. So I think
it's it's just a fine fit. I don't want to
(05:12):
call it a good fit. And I'm curious as to
why the masses are are flocking to the over with
the Bears, I guess the defense should still be fine,
but there were some glaring holes they had to fill
in the secondary that I'm not sure have just been
filled to satisfaction. I don't see this as over an
eight win team. I don't. I don't see it as
over an eight win team either. I actually think though,
(05:34):
the interesting part of this team, specifically for fantasy football
is the backfield, because you know, the team really wants
to give um they I think they like David Montgomery,
right Like. I think that despite how inefficient he was
last year, how brutal he was to to watch play,
(05:54):
I think they they want to give him two fifty
carries again this year, Ricky, even if even if he
is not going to be super efficient on those carries.
And that's something that you've talked about before when we
were doing our Dynasty Startup draft, of being like, look,
David Montgomery is young, and he's going to get the touches. Yeah.
I mean, that's the real selling point to David Montgomery
(06:18):
is you've got this tandem backfield with terk Cone and Montgomery.
But in the off season, both the coach and the
general manager made it a point to say, look, David
Montgomery is the guy. We didn't give him enough touches
last year. That was on us. He's not a great back,
he's not like overly elusive. He's just kind of a
(06:38):
volume back. But for fantasy purposes, that's really all you
care about. If you could see a guy who's whose
touches are going upwards, and all of a sudden, we
can see him in the fifty overall touch range and
he's the guy getting the goal line carries, he's gonna
be a usable fantasy back. Now for real life purposes,
do I think the Bears could have used an upgrade? Sure,
(06:59):
they just didn't have enough draft capital. Yeah. So last
year David Montgomery played in all sixteen games, two hundred
and forties two rushing attempts, right, So they gave him
the ball, They gave him every opportunity. He ran four
three point seven yards per carry, he was targeted thirty
five times, hundred eighty five yards, scored seven touchdowns overall,
(07:21):
really was not a guy you were ever excited to start,
you know, even if you even if you had him,
you know, he got his a thousand scrimmage yards but
he was. He really was just a roster clogger. And
I think the same is true for Turret Cohen, where
he had a hundred and four targets. I mean, if
you start the year and you're like, oh, my guy's
gonna get a hundred and four targets at running back,
(07:41):
you're doing cartwheels. You think that's so awesome. But he
only averaged four point four yards per target, which is
very interesting because the year before he had eight yards
of target and he was catching balls down the field,
you know, like he was. He had seven hundred and
twenty five receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns in tent eighteen.
So just kind of a kind of a bummer that
(08:02):
we saw him decrease inefficiency. I'm wondering, though, if there's
some upside for Cohen, even more so than Montgomery, because
the interesting thing about Cohen is that they actually target
him down the field. If you go back and look
at that season, you'll see that a lot of his
best games came when you know, they were throwing him
the ball on wheel routes. They were really trying to
(08:23):
involve him not just on screens, not just in the flat,
but like actually down the field. And I think with
the release of Taylor Gabriel. I know you like Darnell Mooney,
but I think with the release of Taylor Gabriel, there's
a chance that Cohen turns into that down the field
player again for Chicago. Yeah, I mean, it sounds like
Ted Gain is gonna get the first shot at being
(08:45):
that down the field guy. By the way, I saw
the wide receiver coach say that Ted ginn is one
of the most explosive playmakers in the room and he
called him a kid. By the way, I thought that
was hilarious Ted Gain of years old being called a
child from his wide receiver coach. But I think he's
going to have an opportunity to catch passes down the field.
(09:06):
I think Mooney is as well, and I think Tarik
Kone will, So I think it's a little more convoluted
than you might think that this is just you know,
Tarik Cohn's area of the field. But looking at you know,
Nick Foles when he did have an extended opportunity, you know,
with that Eagles team back in two thousand eight team,
(09:27):
I mean it was zach Ertz with the majority of
the volume. If you care about such things, and I
don't think this is comparing, you know, apples to apples,
playing apples to oranges situation. But Nelson Aghil or the
down the field guy, almost a hundred targets, so I
do think they will They will be attempting to throw
down field more with Nick Foles than with Mitch Drabinsky,
which is just always an uncomfortable situation. And you look
(09:48):
at the running back targets, they didn't really have, you know,
too many guys. Darren Sproles was banged up that year.
He basically put played six games, but like didn't make
it through many of them. So I don't know if
you could look at this Eagle sample and like feel
great about it. But Wendell Smallwood was a guy who
caught about thirty passes, so I mean, clearly, Tarik Cohn
is a much more gifted pass catcher than he was.
(10:10):
I think you could see a similar amount of targets
to last year. Yeah, I mean I I I actually
I just wrote a zero RB target article on sports
grade dot com if you guys want to go and
check that out. And Cohen was one of the guys
that I listed because he's pretty much you know, He's
going outside of the top one hundred picks in most drafts,
but he could catch seventy passes and if he just
(10:33):
runs hot like, because that's kind of what when you're
making these picks a lot of time you're thinking, is
you know, I just I just want to run hot.
I I want to get lucky. And Cohen has pretty
clear passed to getting lucky because he is going to
get targeted down the field. Now, we we have now
spent ten minutes talking about the Bears, and we haven't
mentioned the two guys that we actually really want to roster. Well,
I don't know about you for Anthony Miller, but Allen
(10:55):
Robinson and Anthony Miller are two guys I really like,
and actually for their cost, I prefer Anthony Miller over
Allen Robinson. Miller one of my most drafted guys throughout
this offseason. Yeah, I completely agree with that assessment. I
think Anthony Miller is the clear number two option here.
Tarik Cohen's gonna get his and you're gonna have the
(11:17):
tight ends worked in. But this is a wide receiver
centric offense, and I think that Allen Robinson is he's
being drafted properly I mean, you're you're getting him about
twenty receiver. I think that's a fair price for him.
But but Anthony Miller has shown the ability to find
the end zone and I think that he has sneaky
double digit touchdown sort of upside in this offense, and
(11:39):
it's definitely not being priced like that. And you could
get him much much later than than Allen Robinson. So,
you know, Taylor Gabriel kind of made it a three,
three man show. I don't think Ted Gain is gonna
garner anywhere near the volume of that cool comet could
make up for some of it. But I really do
think Anthony Miller a true number two and is being
priced basically like the number three or four where he's
(12:02):
being drafted. Yeah, and you know, the nice thing about
looking at the Bears is we don't think of them
as a high volume offense. We don't think of them
as an offense that scores a ton. But because they
are trailing in a lot of games, there are a
lot of past attempts to be had there. They were
fourteen in the NFL in passing attempts last year in uh,
you know what was it an eight and made a
(12:23):
pretty mediocre season for the Bears, and Anthony Miller was
more involved than you remember, so he had only eighty
five targets, but if you remember, he was basically benched
at the beginning of the year and really turned it
on towards the latter half of the year games of
thirteen targets and fifteen targets against Detroit and Green Bay.
(12:44):
So I think that there were definitely some positive signs
for Anthony Miller at the end of the season. So
we are gonna go ahead and head into break here
on the daily Road to hour on sports Crede TV.
When we return, we're gonna keep going through the NFC
North and turn our attention to the Green Bay Packers
team with some controversial guys that pretty much every level
(13:06):
of their team in fantasy football. We will see you
guys on the other side of break talking Aaron Rodgers,
Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and the rest of the crew
in just a few minutes. Sports grid dot Com Betting
insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers
the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge
(13:29):
than get on the grid sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone,
and welcome back from break here on the Daily Road
to Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Maddock, joined
today by Ricky Sanders, continuing our team previews for fantasy
football and gambling purposes here on the Daily Road to Hour,
(13:51):
going through the NFC North today, turning our attention to
the Green Bay Packers after examining the Chicago Bears in
our first segment. And you know, I think the right
place to start with the Packers is, is Ricky really
we should just ask and answer the question do we
buy the Packers turning themselves into a run heavy team,
(14:13):
you know, trying to mimic that approach that the San
Francisco forty Niners had last year that was so effective
in knocking knocking the Packers out of the playoffs in
the NFC Conference Championship game, because that's what they say.
They they're telling us they want to do that. And
then they draft a J. Dillon, They draft Josiah ta Gara,
who in the third round, who is you know, really
(14:34):
a fullback h back style players? So, you know, just
do we buy that? To begin with? So I I
buy they're gonna commit to the run. I don't buy
they're gonna be the forty niners. When you look at
the past attempts and how it's trended recently from two
thousand eighteen, Aaron Rodgers in a full sixteen games from
(14:56):
to nine last year, so about thirty less passing attempts,
and I mean the results interception percentage went up. There's
a bit of randomness to that. The yards per game
went way down. I think, you know LA four maybe
looks at this is I drafted Jordan's love because we
want to groom him. We don't want to, you know,
(15:17):
run Aaron Rodgers into the ground. We want him to
kind of have time to remain healthy and groom love
while he's still here. And in the meantime we could
get a little bit more pass happy as we get
Aaron Rodgers getting into his older thirties. So from that,
I get it. But you still have Aaron Rodgers under center,
you still have Davante Adams. I don't think you could
completely devolve into a run first and run the only
(15:39):
kind of team when you have a quarterback like this
and in a competitive division where you very often we'll
be playing from behind. So I think, you know, I
think they think that's where it's gonna go. But when
all said and done, like i'd be surprised if we're
talking about Aaron Rodgers under sixty passent house. So just
for for context for people, these Aaron Rodgers passing attempt
(16:01):
numbers for the last three seasons, which to me, this
is the last three seasons is when we began to
see the decline of of Aaron Rodgers two hundred and
thirty eight passing attempts in that injury filled season, five
hundred and ninety seven passing attempts in five hundred and
sixty nine last year. In the thirteen and three season.
(16:23):
His finishes in Fantasy though UH ninth at quarterback last year,
UH six that quarterback the year before, and then had
the QB one season in. So you know, it's not
that it's not that Rogers is bad Ricky, It's just
that his ceiling weeks have been a little bit fewer
and farther between. Right. So if we go back and
(16:44):
look at last year, he had three or more touchdown
passes in only UH in only three games, five touchdown
game against Oakland, four touchdown game against the Giants and
then three hundred and three against the can The City Chiefs.
But he also had three games with zero passing touchdowns
at all. I mean, I think thinking about Aaron Rodgers, like,
(17:06):
think about Aaron Rodgers having a zero touchdown game like that,
It seems absurd. Yeah, And I think maybe we can
take this into a daily fantasy conversation really quick in
that we know in daily fantasy football, you want to
stack quarterbacks with receivers, right, And when a quarterback has
an outlier passing performance in terms of touchdowns meaning four
(17:28):
or five touchdowns, you very often want to double stack
him with receivers because then you end up getting more
exposure to you know, multiple guys who could both have
a hundred and a touchdown and you're looking for that
upside sort of week like, is Aaron Rodgers anymore someone
that you want to be rostering a ton? Because it
feels like on most weeks you could get most of
(17:49):
the Aaron Rodgers value from just rostering Davante Adams. I
don't know if this year I'm gonna be on you know,
four millionaire weeks on you know, either of the sites
that I have to use Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams
and someone else. I think, you know, Aaron Rodgers weeks,
you could get enough of him having like the multiple
(18:11):
Davante Adams touchdown game and the potential for him to
run for a touchdown. So it kind of like works
into the conversation that we were talking about that his
ceiling isn't quite high as it used to be because
we used to feel great about those five touchdown weeks.
You stack him with Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings, and
you know, you think you could get those weeks out
of him. I just don't think there's enough pass catchers
on this team to feel good about it. Yeah, it's
(18:33):
just it really is just a different team. You know,
you look at the way they've invested in their team
and you see a lot of running backs, and you know,
the wide receiver room is uh, you know, it's just
it's it's a lot different. So let's go ahead and
look at the wide receiver and tight end combos here.
So first off, you know, they get rid of Jimmy Graham.
They they they cut him. He signs with division rival
(18:56):
the Chicago Bears, and I'm sure the Packers are are
so upset about that. They didn't want Jimmy Graham to
come back and haunt them. So they're they're tight end
rotation is uh, they're blocking tight ends are Mercedes Lewis
and Robert Tannian. Then j Sternberger would be the guy
here who has a little bit of ceiling. Uh, the
guy he played at ku UH Community College and Texas
A and m played at all those places in UH
(19:19):
in college. I I like Sternberger. I think he is
a legitimate late round tight end to target this year.
But I mean, well, first of all, do you agree
with me on that assessment. Do you have a little
bit of interest in in Sternberger as a late round
tight end? Yeah? You heard the coaching staff talking about
potentially working him out of the slot, which makes me
I mean, you have to have interest here considering the
(19:40):
lack of alternatives. Alan Lazard looks like he's the default
number two here, but I mean Laser Laser, the guy
with fifty plus targets last year. I know he came
on late, but I think anyone who is big on
this team you got to have interested in because where
are Aaron Rodgers touchdowns going? If he's gonna flirt with
(20:02):
thirty other than Davante Adams. Sternberger is a guy who
is big, so I think he can catch touchdowns. Yeah,
I certainly I think that is true. I think he
is a worthy late round target for sure. So Davante Adams,
uh do we do you believe he is firmly the
second wide receiver in Fantasy? No, it goes Michael Thomas,
(20:24):
then Davanta Adams. I mean we could see a preposterous
volume season from Davanta Adams. He could be targeted two
hundred times. I think Ricky, I I legit think that
is in play. I mean he was pretty much on
page for that last year, hundred and twenty seven targets
in twelve games, so over ten targets a game, he
(20:45):
was basically at a thousand yards five touchdowns. I actually
think was outlier low for Davante Adams, unless you you know,
factor in that look. He's the clear guy that the
defenses will be targeting to slow down in the past
s game. But if Jay Sternberger, could you know, show
that he's viable, I think Aaron Jones will get used
(21:06):
in the slot a bit, which is the reason for
adding A. J. Dillon to the team. I think there's
different ways they can deploy this team where still Davante
Adams is going to be, you know, an excellent threat
on this team. I think to two targets is not
you know, unattainable. I drafted him in our auction League four.
I think it was the second most of any receiver,
(21:27):
significantly cheaper than Michael Thomas. So I'm a believer in
Davante Adams just because you look everywhere else, Aaron Jones
is a good pass catcher. I think Lazard has the
trust of Aaron Rodgers, but none of them screened that
they're going to give any sort of run to Tavante
Adams for being, you know, the top target man in
this offense. Do we do we buy any kind of
(21:48):
Devon funtious resurgence, like, you know, just let let Aaron rock.
You know what. I can kind of see Devon Funches
playing like a remember when James Jones had like a
thirteen touchdown seeason for the Packers. Like I could kind
of see him playing that role where he's not catching,
he's not catching a ton of passes, he's not being
targeted all that frequently, but when he is getting targeted,
(22:11):
they are really valuable targets, you know, down the field,
in the end zone places like that, Like I I
could I could see that happening. Well, that like assumes
that Aaron Rodgers still has like a thirty plus touchdown season,
is right, Yeah, And I'm not sure that's the case.
I think his role at best is like an aging
(22:31):
Angklon Bolden move the sticks sort of dude. I don't
really see him as like a massive touchdown threat. He
is the body for it, but I mean he's just
kind of been dust for a while, and I'm not
sure that going to this team that's focused more on
running is the perfect setup or even a good set
up for for a bounce back sort a year. I
think if he ended up, you know, a fantasy wide
(22:52):
receiver four could I see that, Sure, But I don't
think he really has the upside for much beyond that. Yeah.
Something I don't hate doing for Best Ball is drafting
both Funcius and Lazard Lasers. However you say it, I
think both of those two guys are I think both
of those two guys are sort of interesting in in
(23:13):
that role. Like I could see that being a strategy
that pays off, especially because they are. You know, they're
just they're just so cheap. And of course, my boy,
my boy Marquez Valdes scaling. You know, it's just it's
it's probably not gonna happen for him, but I really,
I really want to make it happen. It's a it's
a big bummer, but we should talk about the running room,
(23:33):
the running back room. There now Aaron Jones going as
a mid to late second round pick, and last season
he scored twenty touch at nineteen touchdowns on two eighty
five touches. He was targeted sixty eight times, recorded two
hundred and thirty six rushing attempts. Obviously ran super hot,
but the touchdowns, um, ricky, the the issue with Jones is, uh,
(23:56):
there's well, there's a couple of things. First, is he
had pretty big split. It's when Davontae Adams was in
and when Davontae Adams was out in terms of his
touchdown usage and in terms of his usage in the
passing game, like he just you know, he just was
lower on the packing order than than Davontae Adams. But also,
(24:16):
I mean that's an insane amount of touchdown luck, like
like just like too much touchdown luck for us to
expect to be repeatable or anything like that. So where
are you at on Aaron Jones, Like, where are you
setting the over under for touchdowns this year? I think
like nine and a half? Nine? Yeah, yeah, I mean
so from that perspective, I mean getting a back who
(24:38):
still should get you know, I think that the touches
two plus is a fine number. He was a two
thirty six last year. Uh and a guy who you mentioned,
you know, his targets increased in the games without Davante Adams.
I still think sixty targets on a team with just
a complete lack of receivers is a decent number. But
because he was so lucky, I thought he was a
(24:59):
guy who was going to sneak into the first round
this year. But you know, the field seems sharper. But
I think at the end of the second round in Fantasy,
even with a j. Dillon there, who's gonna steal some touchdowns?
Like if weak factor in that we think the over
unders nine and a half, and you think you could
get nine touchdowns from a guy who still should be
mostly the workforce towards the end of the round. I
think that's a fair price and I think that risk
(25:20):
is by them and baked in. Yeah, I think, uh,
I think that probably is. I think you're right. I
think that it is sort of baked in. I think
where you will run into problems with Aaron Jones is
if they use all three guys. So if A. J.
Dillon is getting used on the goal line some, Jamal
Williams is getting used on passing down some, I think
(25:41):
you're gonna run into a really big problem there, in which, Yeah,
Aaron Jones is gonna have some startable games. There's gonna
be some games you're really glad to have him, you know,
might have a couple of three touchdown games, might have
some games with some long runs. But he's kind of
gonna become the volatile version of like a best ball
wider ever where you never really know when the best
(26:02):
weeks are gonna come, and he's gonna be a better
asset in uh, you know, best ball leagues than in
redraft leagues. And you never want to feel that way
about your your second round pick. So we're gonna go
ahead and head into break now here on the Daily
Road to Hour, We're going to continue our conversation on
the NFC North with the Minnesota Vikings when we return.
We're saving the worst for last, with this division going
(26:23):
to the Detroit Lions last. So I'm gonna go ahead
and head into break, returning to talk about Kirk Cousins
and Adam Feeling in just a moment. Sports grid dot
Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want
(26:46):
the edge than get on the grid sports grid dot
Com M you're watching Sportscreen. Hello everyone, and welcome back
(27:08):
from break. Here on the daily Road to Hour on
sportscred TV. I'm Davis Manic, joined today by Ricky Sanders,
continuing our series of NFC North team previews for fantasy
football and sports betting purposes. We have to uh. We
have to now move to UH. I think Ricky a
pretty boring team as far as as far as fantasy
teams can go. Not a ton of changes for the
(27:31):
Vikings year over year. They have replaced Steph Diggs with
Justin Jefferson. But I don't really know how much you know.
Adam Theeland's role is gonna change. I don't know how
much Irv Smith Junior's role is going to change. Do
you agree with my assessment that the Vikings just seem
kind of boring? Yeah. The most exciting thing is the
holdout of the running back situation. Yeah, I mean that's
(27:55):
for fantasy purposes. The thing that mostly everyone's talking about,
and the thing that I'm personally excited about is to
see how well Justin Jefferson basically asserts himself year one
because I have a feeling that I think he could be,
you know, just as productive as feeling in year one,
which is a crazy thing to say. But how productive
were the receivers in general last year? They weren't, I mean,
(28:17):
feeling average four point eight targets per game. Would it
shocked me if it's you know, run heavy team once again? Um?
But yeah, because it is such a run heavy team.
We're looking at the running backs, We're looking at Dalvid
Cook saying how much time are you gonna miss? And
we're looking at the FanDuel lines here over under eight
and a half wins and their favorite to make the playoffs.
(28:39):
I'm like, not that excited about either of those lines
for the Vikings. Yeah, I mean, if you look at
the distribution tree for targets for the Vikings last year,
ninety four targets for digs, he's gone. So we can
probably pencil in Justin Jefferson for eighty to a hundred targets,
you know, kind of in that realm. You know, probably
(29:00):
like four catches a game if if he turns out
to be a good NFL player, you know, obviously there's
some bust potential with all these guys. Dalvin Cook sixty
three targets in fourteen games, three point eight receptions per game,
forty eight targets for Adam Feeling in ten games. I
mean that is started startlingly low, right, like just it
(29:20):
feels weird to think about, you know, Adam Feeling like
we all love him, um, you know, people like to
draft him, and he was really low. And then Rudolph
forty eight targets, IRV Smith Jr. Forty seven, Old B. C.
Johnson forty five. I mean this team Ricky through only
four hundred and sixty six forward passes, Like that's crazy. Yeah. No,
(29:41):
Kevin Stefanski though, remember he left for Cleveland, so different
offense here. Still Mike Zimmer, who likes to focus on
defense coaching this team, So I don't know. I think
there's a potential we get over five passing attempts from
this team, especially if they're not quite as competitive as
we think without uh Dalvin Cook. And I've seen people
(30:02):
speculating online, you know, saying running backs don't matter. But
Madison is a much worse back than Dalvin Cooke, so
over time, you would think this offense would notice the difference.
I still feel good, obviously about Alexander Madison and daily
fantasy and yearly fantasy while he's starting, but I wonder
if they're not just able to pound the ball down
the throat with Madison that you know, in a small
(30:23):
sample he averaged more yards per tempt last year than
Dalvin Cook. But I don't think you could take the
samples one for one seeing is how many more attempts
I mean two and a half more attempts for Dalvin
Cook than Alexander Madison. If you saw, you know, Madison
with two fifty touches, Are we getting a four and
a half yard per carry player. We don't really know
the answer to that yet, and if the answer is no,
(30:43):
all of a sudden, this team could be getting behind.
This team could be having to throw and you could
see multiple hundred plus target receivers in this offense. Again,
I don't think that's that's out of the question, which
is why I took feeling in our auption league. I
feel good about him, and which is why I'm loading
up on the Justin Jefferson chairs is I think people
are just assuming that the way they ran their offense
last year is the way that they're going to run
(31:05):
things this year. But especially if there's no Dalvin Cook,
you can't just found the football down your opponent's throats. Something. Uh,
something I might be wondering is if they give Mike
Boone a little bit of of a longer look. So
last season, you know, everyone remember Mike Boone was he
was the stone cold chalk in weeks sixteen and really disappointed. Well, yeah,
(31:26):
he had eleven carries twenty eight yards, one target, one
reception against Green May and twenty three to ten loss.
And then against Chicago the next week's seventeen carries a
hundred forty eight yards, uh, a touchdown, three targets, two
receptions for twelve yards. I'm wondering if maybe Boone gets
a little bit more of a look. Maybe maybe Boone
(31:47):
is actually, you know, the more you know, maybe the
more explosive runner, you know, and and maybe Madison and
Boone end up in some sort of time share that
would you know, and that that is definitely a way
that they've able to keep their their ground and pound ways.
So I assume I've seen in the NFC recently that
Madison's moved up to like a fifth or sixth rounder.
(32:08):
I assume it's too high for you. If you think
that Boone can work his way into this backfield, then
that's just asking for disaster that early where you can
be getting an impact receiver. And I think I'm on
the same side as you are, although I'm monitoring this
situation closely. I do tend to bet against the guys
who are holding out. But if you're not getting the
(32:30):
workhorse back to step in, and all of a sudden,
you're getting a guy at a time share, like are
we talking about a top thirty back at all? If
he's gonna start for four games and and split during
that time and then you know, Dalvin Cook comes back,
it's just a lot of risk for a player that early. Well,
the reason why I am not drafting Madison there is.
I just think it's really hard for a running back
(32:54):
to hold out now because the way that the c
b A is worded, so the way that the way
that the CED is worded now is that these guys
who hold out, um, they don't accrue the year of
service time. So if he holds out and the Vikings
just don't crack at all, I mean, Dalvin Cook might
just play for the Vikings his whole career because he's
(33:14):
never gonna crue enough service time to run out his
rookie deal. So so what I'm doing in fantasy drafts now, though,
is I am not drafting Alexander Madison with a top
seven round pick. You know, I think it's very different
than drafting Austin Ekeler that early last year because Ekeler
was gonna have some sort of role, you know pretty
much no matter what, he was gonna catch passes, he
(33:35):
was going to be someone, uh, you know, worst case scenario,
he was gonna be like Tart Cohen basically, and that's
not gonna happen with Madison. If Dalvin Cook comes back,
doesn't hold out, like he's just gonna be the dude
he is going to start for them, you know what
I mean? Yeah, I mean Madison was a guy who
only worked in sporadically. But he was twelve targets. He
didn't touch ten of them if you're looking for a
(33:55):
positive here, But you know, a guy with a hundred
rushing attempts to Dalvin Cooks to fifty, you would think
it would be proportional in terms of the targets, and
it's not. If you want to go the two and
a half metric to see you know, kind of the
snaps and the snaps weren't even perfectly in order. But
we're talking about like thirty targets if he, you know,
had the same sort of playing time, So not like
a real threat to catch a ton of passes. But
(34:17):
I think IRV Smith Jr. Is probably a guy we
should talk about because he was the talk of the
off season before the Vikings drafted a receiver. It's funny,
like did people think they weren't going to after the
Stefan Dames thing? Like why did the IRV Smith you know,
hype train basically slow down. He's twenty two years old.
We know Kyle Rudolph is entering the latter stages of
(34:38):
his career, he's gonna be thirty one. He caught six
touchdowns last year, IRV Smith caught two. It would not
shock me. I mean football moves very quickly. If that
turned around this year, I think, you know, the over
under for IRV Smith touchdowns this year should be like
four and a half. I think he's going to clearly
see an uptick in usage, regardless of what happens with
(34:58):
you know, justin Jefferson's role, Adam Feeling. I feel like
it's is the alpha. But this has been an offense
that's looked to the tight end in the red zone,
and I think this is officially IRV Smith's time. I
think Kyle Rudolph is just getting too old. I think
there is a lot of different ways that this season
can play out favorably for IRB Smith Jr. The first
(35:18):
would be he takes over Kyle Rudolph right, so Kyle
Rudolph becomes the reserve tight end, RBS Smith becomes the
guy who is playing more of the snaps. The second
would be the team lining him up as a wide
receiver more just basically being like, look, we could play
old the BC Johnson or or Chad Beatie, or we
can play you. We spent a higher draft pick on you.
(35:40):
We think you're better. We want you to play more, so,
you know, playing some wide receiver snaps, playing in the
red zone more. Um. Also, Justin Jefferson could just not
be ready, right. We can see like a G. J.
Shark Ish rookie year where Justin Jefferson is not quite ready,
not physically there enough, not not strong enough to play
as an NFL wide receiver. And in that event, I
(36:03):
think that the way that the Vikings would play would
be just a lot of twenty one personnel. So so
you know, two tight ends. And at that point, I
mean IRV Smith Jr. Probably Projects for like eight targets
or something, and like, I mean, that's a guy you
definitely want to have on your fantasy teams, like a
huge chunk of them. Yeah exactly. I mean I think
(36:26):
IRV Smith's a guy I'm gonna be I'm gonna be
buying at his a DP right now. I mean so
since the start of February, which is probably more of
the sample that we need to be looking at. But
IRV Smith is being drafted after O. J. Howard, who
I think is pretty dead. I think this this is
probably because of the sample, but he's being basically drafted
(36:46):
tight end twenty or later. I think he has the
upside to be a tight end one. I don't think
that's a crazy thing to say. I don't think both
Justin Jefferson and him are gonna hit big enough. I
just don't think there's gonna be enough volume you But
I think if I'm wrong about Justin Jefferson, it's probably
because IRV Smith Jr. Took a big role in the
(37:07):
passing game. Yeah that, um, that does probably end up
being true. So let's let's let's kind of think out
Dalvin Cook here, because we know that, you know, workhorse
running backs are really at a premium these days. You know,
before any of those rumors up hold out, Dalvin Cook was,
I mean, he was sometimes going as the third running
back off the board, but pretty much every draft he
(37:28):
was going top six every time, no matter what, you know,
it is CMC, it's sae Quan, it's Zeke Kamara, and
Dalvin right, So so he is in that group. And
I think that Dalvin Cook maybe holding out has done
some interesting things to the market. So people are really
I think, probably overvaluing Miles Sanders a little bit, overvaluing
(37:50):
Joe Mixon, overvaluing Josh Jacobs, overvaluing Derrick Henry, all of
those guys a little bit. But I mean, you know,
when when do you take Dalvin Cook? Now, when do
you value that role as a running back? How do
you how do you compare that to the fact of, well,
maybe you just don't get Dalvin Cook at all, maybe
he just doesn't play at all this season, which I
(38:10):
think is unlikely, but it's possible. I can tell you
high stakes players aren't overreacting as much as I thought
they would be. Since the beginning of May. The latest
Dalvin Cook has gone in any draft is tenth overall.
I would have thought there would have been a draft
where people would be really scared of this guy, like
the latest Derrick Henry has gone by comparison seventeenth Joe
(38:32):
Mix and Miles sandersy three, so they you know, teams
have been scared to the point where he falls. These
guys fall to the end of the second round, and
that hasn't been the case with Dalvin Cook. I think
for me, I would start taking the chance on him
after Kenyan Drake was off the board. I think I
just again I've view Kenyan Drake is an RB one
this whole offseason, and so I think they're close enough
(38:55):
where I take him Miles Sanders Dalvin Cook. That's when
I start thinking Dalvin Cook. Yeah, I think so that.
I think um Drake is the line for me as well.
I think at this point I would rather have Miles
Sanders and Kenyan Drake, but you know, I would the
the upside with Cook is so good, and I think
that you're getting a you know, kind of a discount
on him there in the um in the back half
(39:18):
of the first round. So we're gonna go ahead and
head into break here on the Daily Road Hour on
sports Gride TV. When we returned going to the bottom
of the NFC North with the Detroit Lions, Matt Stafford
Kenny Golladay will continue that discussion when we get that
sports grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
(39:42):
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome to our
final segment here on the Daily Road Hour on Sport
Great TV. I'm Davis Mannock joined by Ricky Sanders. We
(40:04):
have started going through our NFL team previews here on
the show, thinking that of all the things we know,
it is certain the NFL is going to play no
matter what, They're finding a way to play these games.
So going through team by team, position by position, all
the important guys that you need to know, have gone
through three teams of the NFC North, the Packers, the Vikings,
(40:26):
and the Chicago Bears. Now we are sitting with the
Detroit Lions, and uh, you know what I am. I'm
probably actually a little bit higher than the market on
the Detroit Lions because you know what I I think
Matt Stafford is good, Ricky and I will I will
die on this hill. Maybe not. I think he is
an above average NFL quarterback. I like him. So the
(40:47):
way I kind of think of Matt Stafford is I
don't know if you were in a fraternity in college,
but there was always one guy that like your group
of friends hung out with and you would never acknowledge
was like a good dude. You there was always just
something about him that irked you. And Matt Stafford is
like that version of the guy to me in Fantasy,
and then you finally hang out with the guy and
give him a shot, and he like turns out to
(41:09):
be hilarious and you just welcome him into the group.
I feel like I've been neglecting Matt Stafford for so long,
and just looking at these numbers, it makes me wonder
why I've been off. Like the match the weight on
Matt Stafford train in Fantasy. In eight games last year,
he had dred yards. He was on pace for five
thousand and basically forty touchdowns, and for some reason, I
(41:32):
have just been on the no. I'd rather have the
Russell Wilsons. I'd rather go, you know, the Dak Prescott's,
the guys who run, and I just kind of overlook
these guys who are just pure arm strength sort of dudes,
and I think, sort of like the fraternity example, we
need to just give this guy a chance. He's not
as bad as he seems. I mean I I last
(41:53):
year argued that it would be reasonable to propose that
Matt Stafford should have gotten some m v P votes,
like not no first place m vp boats, but like third, fourth,
and fifth place because he was playing so strongly last year,
and uh, you know, I think that's uh. I think
the fact that people don't like Matt Stafford also sort
(42:13):
of drags down the ADP of his wide receivers. Now,
it's not true this year you are paying total full
price for Kenny Golladay, but you're not paying full price
for Marvin Jones, who had three less receptions in three
less games than Kenny Golladay and nine touchdowns to Kenny
(42:34):
Golladay's eleven. I mean, Marvin Jones is a legit discount,
Like you can get this guy in like the ninth
and tenth round of your best Ball drafts, Like he
is a stone cold lay up there. Yeah, there are
a lot of guys who love Marvin Jones, and there
are guys who love him. Yeah, I get it, But
he's thirty years old. And you know, the reception difference
(42:55):
doesn't mean much to me when you see the quality
of the receptions for Kenny Gallady just always seems to
be the guy that they're targeting downfield. Over eighteen yards
of reception last year compared to twelve point six for
Marvin Jones, and the catch rate was lower, but the
difficulty of touches you know, throwing to him downfield was
more difficult. So I mean, fifty catch rate not what
(43:16):
you want to see for a top receiver, but they're
feeding him with volume, and the targets weren't that closed.
A hundred and sixteen for Galladay for Marvin Jones. Look,
I have been off t. J. Hockenson for a few years,
but in terms of talent he is. I don't want
to call him up there with like the Noah Fant
and the Mike Gisiki because I think his talent is
(43:38):
slightly less than their's. But he's good enough that over
time he should be a productive tight end in this league,
and I think Kenny Galladay is the true number one.
I am okay taking the shot on Marvin Jones here,
but I think expecting nine touchdowns once again from an
aging guy. Seeing they've got Danny Amondola as you know,
kind of a possession guy to add in there. They've
(44:00):
two backs who can catch the ball. Now, I don't
know if I'm insanely high on him to the point
where I would reach any higher than his ADP. If
he felt to me, I certainly would be okay with it,
but I'd rather just pay the full price for gality. Personally, Yeah, um, now,
we don't have a big best ball tournament out right now.
I think that one probably will come, and I don't
(44:20):
know if it'll be a million bucks to first. I
don't know if it'll be a hundred thousand of first,
but I do think we should get something soon. And
I I really like doing the triple stack, and I
would love the idea of Matt Stafford at his current cost.
You know, you can get him in the round and
then you can take Kenny Golladay in the third, Marvin
(44:41):
Jones in the eighth. And I mean that is a
huge triple stack that has the ability on any given
week to combine for you know, eighty points or whatever.
So I should note that that strategy is viable from
the sense that if you put Matt Stafford on pace
last year for thirty eight touchdowns, that pace slowed down
(45:02):
significantly in the games that he did not play. We
saw a total of eight passing touchdowns in the eight
games from David blow Up and Jeff Driscoll. So if
you think, yeah, if you think that touchdown pace continues
for both players, then I understand the argument. I still
think Marvin Jones is aging, and I think t J.
(45:23):
Hockinson's two touchdowns are gonna go up by default. But
I think Golladay could give you like a thirteen fourteen
touchdown season if we get a healthy match Stafford. I
don't even see that as the ceiling for Golladay. I
see why you could. You could view Marvin Jones is
like a double digit guy, but like these secondary guys,
I view more touchdowns coming their way if you get
(45:45):
a healthy match Stafford. And I think t J. Hockenson
it finally could be his year. I mean, really, I
think this is a guy who can score over six touchdowns.
So I think we are both in on Stafford at cost.
It about DeAndre Swift at in the fifth round, you know,
he goes about, he goes right around in there, or
(46:06):
carry on Johnson in the eighth or ninth round. I
mean to me, I kind of think both of them
are are honestly a little bit unappealing. So DeAndre Swift
is getting drafted before David Montgomery in terms of volume.
The guaranteed volume for David Montgomery is so much higher.
You look at those two dred and forty just rushing
attempts last year. I think we're talking about one of
(46:30):
the heaviest volume backs in the entire league, who is
it great, which is why he's being priced there versus
DeAndre Swift, who still has carry On Johnson. They're on
a team where running backs have been a disaster as
of late. Just looking at the guys around him, I
think cam Acres maybe even has a similar, if not
better opportunity in here one than DeAndre Swift. We've talked
(46:51):
about Swift and I'm holding true to it. The price
has gotten cheaper here than it is in rookie drafts,
and I'm still not on Swift. Yeah, So I think
that there are some reasons if you are a zero
RB drafting team to like DeAndre Swift. Um. The first
would be is that carry On Johnson is a good
(47:13):
running back, but I don't think he's done enough to
be considered like unimpeachable in the Lions backfield. Like if
if Swift comes in and it's just crushing training camp,
does really well right away, you know, maybe he scores
like a long touchdown in his first game. Uh, you know,
he picks up the past blocking stuff pretty quickly. I
can totally see the Lions just being like, look, man,
(47:35):
Swift is is better. So these are these this is
what we have in carry On. Johnson's career UM as
a rookie, he played in ten games, started seven UH.
He averaged five point four yards per carry average, five
point five yards per targets, scored four touchdowns on a
hundred and fifty touches like fine, like good numbers. You
know you're you're you're not. You don't think he's terrible,
(47:56):
you don't think he's the best player in the world.
Last year, four earn in three rushing yards in eight games. UH,
scored three touchdowns again, caught one touchdown, was targeted only
fifteen times. And I think the fact that UM, this
team they keep drafting and signing pass catching running backs,
to me, I think that's an indicator that maybe they
(48:18):
they don't actually love carry On in the passing game
all that much. So Swift was a big pass catcher
at the University of Georgia. They still have Ty Johnson
on the roster. And then this this UM kind of
snap like slipped through the cracks. No one talks about
this when talking about the UH. The Lions draft, but
they draft Jason Huntley in the fifth round of the
(48:39):
NFL draft, and Huntley was like a pure pass catching
running back in college like he he is like a
Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, uh Nike hind style players. So
I kind of think they are broadcasting like Carrie on
Johnson doesn't matter to us. Yeah, and that's appealing for
DeAndre Swift. And by the way, how do you not
(49:01):
use theoretic? Is the uh oh yeah, how do I?
How do I skip past theoretic as the obvious pass
catching back there? But yeah, so from that perspective, I mean,
if you think carry On Johnson is phased out, there
are some value to DeAndre Swift. But knowing that there
is a third down back who's going to take a
bunch of that reception workload, and we know that pass
catching is in the Swift skill set, that's even a
(49:23):
bit disheartening. If you do get a scenario though, where
DeAndre Swift is crushing preseason and he looks like the
best back they have had it quite some time. I
think drafting DeAndre Swift should be correlated with you looking
at the FanDuel Sports book and taking the over six
and a half wins, because I think if this team
(49:46):
is able to establish a running game that takes them
to a level that they haven't been in quite some time.
And you can mix that with Matt Stafford on offense
and given that protection. I think you either are fading
Swift and you feel decent about this Lions under, or
you're drafting Swift and you feel decent about the Lions over. Yeah.
(50:06):
I I like that idea. I actually I actually think that. Um.
I think that you can make an argument that the
Lions are actually maybe better than the Packers right um
or or that they have the ability to win more
games than them. And I know that seems observed like
someone's yelling at someone's yelling at their TV right now,
(50:26):
but I do I I I believe I believe that
the Lions offense is fairly talented. Um are we are
we concerned at all about t J. Hockenson's offseason ankle
surgery and the report that he is perhaps not back
to one percent yet? Because I I think that, you know,
having a young tight end like Hawkinson who is amazing
(50:48):
at blocking and is a good you know, red zone threat,
a good uh you know, good third down guy like
that can do huge things to an offense. You know,
we've seen examples of that with Travis Kelsey and Rob Gronkowski,
and you know, like just those young athletic tight ends
who are very good at blocking can change the whole
direction of an offense. Are we worried that, you know,
we we might be a little bit too optimistic on
(51:09):
the Lions if Hawkinson is not healthy. So yes, from
that perspective, yes, I wanted to take a look from
a fantasy perspective where he's going after pick one thirty
four in most stress, and I think because you're making
sort of, uh, you know, a pick for the ceiling
at this point anyways, that for fantasy purposes, because we're
(51:31):
only in June, I'm not overly concerned yet. I still
think at one thirty four, if he hits, then you
might have yourself a tight end one. If he flops,
you can just drop him like basically anyone else you'd
be drafting in this area. So for fantasy purposes, yes,
if you're looking at the Lions and you know, thinking
what's going to take them to the next level, what
makes me confident that they can win seven games? I
(51:53):
think having t J. Hockinson to kind of back up
a thirty year old Marvin Williams. If anything happens with
him makes you feel a lot better, and if you
want to wake that out, I think that's fine. Yeah,
I think um, I think that is fine as well.
You know the guys who I think you can feel
pretty confident drafting at their cost for this team. I
think Matthew Stafford in terms of a past only quarterback,
(52:16):
I think he is gonna make you happy. I think
t J. Hawkinson, assuming that we get good reports on
his health. I think that he is going to be
a building block of some winning teams. And then of
course Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones and and there's a
lot of passing volume to go around in this offense
and keep everyone happy. Everyone that's gonna do it for
us Here today on the daily road to Hour on
(52:36):
sports Create TV. This has been Davis Maddock and Ricky
Sanders taking you around the NFC North as we do
our NFL team previews, and we will be back tomorrow
with even more NFL team preview coverage for all of
you sports cried dot com betting insights and entertainment at
your fingertips seven as our team covers the most important
(52:58):
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid. Sports grid dot com h
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
listen live, all you have to do is download the
I Heart Radio app and search for Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Also,
if you want to catch this show on video, for
sure to check out Zoo TV channel seven nineteen and
that's where you can find Sports Grids Fantasy Sports Network.
Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:22):
and welcome to the Daily Roado Hour here on Sports
Grade TV. I'm David's Maddock joined by Ricky Sanders, and
as we are getting ever closer to the NFL season,
we thought that now would be an appropriate time to
start going through division by division, team by team and
doing full NFL team previews. And Ricky, because you are
(00:44):
a fan of the Chicago Bears and you live in
a state that now, I mean as of literally what
two hours ago, you live in a state with with
legal live mobile batting. How does that feel? Oh? It
feels excellent. Let's let's put it that way. I mean,
just reading the tweets of everyone reacting to it has
been fun. And I mean, in true Chicago fashion, Homeroism
(01:09):
has already started as people have started to pour in
on the bets for the over on the Bears wind total,
which is hilarious. Those are like basically all the first
bets that the sports bets have taken have been massive
bets on the Bears. Over there you go, So let's
let's go ahead and take a look at the Bears
from a fansy. Well, well, you know, we'll talk fantasy football,
(01:31):
we'll talk betting, we'll talk, you know, just a little
bit about everything. First off, Ricky, who do you think
starts the most games at quarterback for the Bears. I
feel like I'm all of a sudden in the minority
thinking that it's Nick Foles. I don't think they would
have gone out and gotten him, and I don't think
that Naggi has this relationship with him and says such
(01:53):
positive things for Mitch Trabisky to be the guy who
leads the team and starts. Now, obviously injury, coronavirus, there's
just a million things that could lead to by accident,
Mitch Trobinsky having to step in. But I think, assuming
full health, I think it's Nick Foles who's the guy here.
I just think you watched Mitch Trabinsky throw the football
(02:13):
last year and he had he basically reminded you of
a Blake Bortles. I mean, he was a guy who
who graded basically outside the top twenty five according to
Pro Football Focus in terms of just his overall play,
which is not a good NFL starting quarterback. So basically,
what do you have to lose switching to someone else?
And you've got this naggy system that you know, really
focuses on the short routes. You get these guys in
(02:36):
the uh in the you know posts that I think
will be a good fit for Nick Foles. We saw
him kind of get it done with D D. Westbrooks.
So the guys playing inside receiver, I think we'll have
a bunch of you know, open lanes and maybe potentially
a quarterback who can get them the ball. I just
think it's a good fit for the system. And I think,
you know, all the context around it is nick Foles
(02:58):
was brought in to be the guy. So I tend
to agree with you. I don't think Nick Foles was
brought in to be the guy. I disagree with that statement.
I think if Nick Foles was gonna be the guy,
we would have seen some evidence of that. But you know,
the Eagles didn't think he was the guy. The Rams
didn't think he was the guy. The Jaguars, you know,
chose to go with Gardner Minshew instead. Like they're they're
(03:21):
just there's been a lot of chances for Nick Foles
is basically what I'm saying. There's been a lot of
opportunities for him to be the guy. He's never been
the guy. Now that being said, does that mean that
he is can't? Does that mean that he cannot be
the guy and still be better than Mitch Drabinsky? And
I think the answer to that is yes. I think
Trabinsky was so offensively bad last season for the Bears that,
(03:45):
you know, I just I just don't really, I don't
really see a path to you know, them giving him
a contract extension, to him being on a uh, you know,
a ten win team or anything like that. Like, I just,
I just I think the Traubinsky era has come and
gone and he is going to be a a career
long backup. However, wouldn't surprise me if it ended up
(04:06):
kind of being a split, like Fools gets eight games,
Trabisky gets six games. Actually, you know what it kind
of reminds me of is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from
teen where once the starting quarterback through two interceptions, they
brought the other guy in and then played that guy
until he threw two interceptions. We might see some sort
of tandem like that for for Trabisky and Fols. Yeah,
(04:28):
I think that's within the range of outcomes. We're talking
about a quarterback that was six yards per tempt last year,
and I just think Nick Foles with these slot receivers.
You now have Ted ginn who was extremely quick, you
brought in Darnell Mooney. I think these are the kind
of receivers and we've seen by the way Nick Foles
succeed with tight ends, of which the Bears currently have ten.
(04:50):
But of course we think Jimmy Graham's gonna be the
red zone guy. Cole Comet is the project. I think
the inside sort of receivers are the ones that have
worked with Nick Foles. I think Naggie, you know, kind
of sought out a guy who he viewed to be
affordable and a short term solution that could work in
his system to not get him fired. So I think
it's it's just a fine fit. I don't want to
(05:12):
call it a good fit. And I'm curious as to
why the masses are are flocking to the over with
the Bears, I guess the defense should still be fine,
but there were some glaring holes they had to fill
in the secondary that I'm not sure have just been
filled to satisfaction. I don't see this as over an
eight win team. I don't. I don't see it as
over an eight win team either. I actually think though,
(05:34):
the interesting part of this team, specifically for fantasy football
is the backfield, because you know, the team really wants
to give um they I think they like David Montgomery,
right Like. I think that despite how inefficient he was
last year, how brutal he was to to watch play,
(05:54):
I think they they want to give him two fifty
carries again this year, Ricky, even if even if he
is not going to be super efficient on those carries.
And that's something that you've talked about before when we
were doing our Dynasty Startup draft, of being like, look,
David Montgomery is young, and he's going to get the touches. Yeah.
I mean, that's the real selling point to David Montgomery
(06:18):
is you've got this tandem backfield with terk Cone and Montgomery.
But in the off season, both the coach and the
general manager made it a point to say, look, David
Montgomery is the guy. We didn't give him enough touches
last year. That was on us. He's not a great back,
he's not like overly elusive. He's just kind of a
(06:38):
volume back. But for fantasy purposes, that's really all you
care about. If you could see a guy who's whose
touches are going upwards, and all of a sudden, we
can see him in the fifty overall touch range and
he's the guy getting the goal line carries, he's gonna
be a usable fantasy back. Now for real life purposes,
do I think the Bears could have used an upgrade? Sure,
(06:59):
they just didn't have enough draft capital. Yeah. So last
year David Montgomery played in all sixteen games, two hundred
and forties two rushing attempts, right, So they gave him
the ball, They gave him every opportunity. He ran four
three point seven yards per carry, he was targeted thirty
five times, hundred eighty five yards, scored seven touchdowns overall,
(07:21):
really was not a guy you were ever excited to start,
you know, even if you even if you had him,
you know, he got his a thousand scrimmage yards but
he was. He really was just a roster clogger. And
I think the same is true for Turret Cohen, where
he had a hundred and four targets. I mean, if
you start the year and you're like, oh, my guy's
gonna get a hundred and four targets at running back,
(07:41):
you're doing cartwheels. You think that's so awesome. But he
only averaged four point four yards per target, which is
very interesting because the year before he had eight yards
of target and he was catching balls down the field,
you know, like he was. He had seven hundred and
twenty five receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns in tent eighteen.
So just kind of a kind of a bummer that
(08:02):
we saw him decrease inefficiency. I'm wondering, though, if there's
some upside for Cohen, even more so than Montgomery, because
the interesting thing about Cohen is that they actually target
him down the field. If you go back and look
at that season, you'll see that a lot of his
best games came when you know, they were throwing him
the ball on wheel routes. They were really trying to
(08:23):
involve him not just on screens, not just in the flat,
but like actually down the field. And I think with
the release of Taylor Gabriel. I know you like Darnell Mooney,
but I think with the release of Taylor Gabriel, there's
a chance that Cohen turns into that down the field
player again for Chicago. Yeah, I mean, it sounds like
Ted Gain is gonna get the first shot at being
(08:45):
that down the field guy. By the way, I saw
the wide receiver coach say that Ted ginn is one
of the most explosive playmakers in the room and he
called him a kid. By the way, I thought that
was hilarious Ted Gain of years old being called a
child from his wide receiver coach. But I think he's
going to have an opportunity to catch passes down the field.
(09:06):
I think Mooney is as well, and I think Tarik
Kone will, So I think it's a little more convoluted
than you might think that this is just you know,
Tarik Cohn's area of the field. But looking at you know,
Nick Foles when he did have an extended opportunity, you know,
with that Eagles team back in two thousand eight team,
(09:27):
I mean it was zach Ertz with the majority of
the volume. If you care about such things, and I
don't think this is comparing, you know, apples to apples,
playing apples to oranges situation. But Nelson Aghil or the
down the field guy, almost a hundred targets, so I
do think they will They will be attempting to throw
down field more with Nick Foles than with Mitch Drabinsky,
which is just always an uncomfortable situation. And you look
(09:48):
at the running back targets, they didn't really have, you know,
too many guys. Darren Sproles was banged up that year.
He basically put played six games, but like didn't make
it through many of them. So I don't know if
you could look at this Eagle sample and like feel
great about it. But Wendell Smallwood was a guy who
caught about thirty passes, so I mean, clearly, Tarik Cohn
is a much more gifted pass catcher than he was.
(10:10):
I think you could see a similar amount of targets
to last year. Yeah, I mean I I I actually
I just wrote a zero RB target article on sports
grade dot com if you guys want to go and
check that out. And Cohen was one of the guys
that I listed because he's pretty much you know, He's
going outside of the top one hundred picks in most drafts,
but he could catch seventy passes and if he just
(10:33):
runs hot like, because that's kind of what when you're
making these picks a lot of time you're thinking, is
you know, I just I just want to run hot.
I I want to get lucky. And Cohen has pretty
clear passed to getting lucky because he is going to
get targeted down the field. Now, we we have now
spent ten minutes talking about the Bears, and we haven't
mentioned the two guys that we actually really want to roster. Well,
I don't know about you for Anthony Miller, but Allen
(10:55):
Robinson and Anthony Miller are two guys I really like,
and actually for their cost, I prefer Anthony Miller over
Allen Robinson. Miller one of my most drafted guys throughout
this offseason. Yeah, I completely agree with that assessment. I
think Anthony Miller is the clear number two option here.
Tarik Cohen's gonna get his and you're gonna have the
(11:17):
tight ends worked in. But this is a wide receiver
centric offense, and I think that Allen Robinson is he's
being drafted properly I mean, you're you're getting him about
twenty receiver. I think that's a fair price for him.
But but Anthony Miller has shown the ability to find
the end zone and I think that he has sneaky
double digit touchdown sort of upside in this offense, and
(11:39):
it's definitely not being priced like that. And you could
get him much much later than than Allen Robinson. So,
you know, Taylor Gabriel kind of made it a three,
three man show. I don't think Ted Gain is gonna
garner anywhere near the volume of that cool comet could
make up for some of it. But I really do
think Anthony Miller a true number two and is being
priced basically like the number three or four where he's
(12:02):
being drafted. Yeah, and you know, the nice thing about
looking at the Bears is we don't think of them
as a high volume offense. We don't think of them
as an offense that scores a ton. But because they
are trailing in a lot of games, there are a
lot of past attempts to be had there. They were
fourteen in the NFL in passing attempts last year in uh,
you know what was it an eight and made a
(12:23):
pretty mediocre season for the Bears, and Anthony Miller was
more involved than you remember, so he had only eighty
five targets, but if you remember, he was basically benched
at the beginning of the year and really turned it
on towards the latter half of the year games of
thirteen targets and fifteen targets against Detroit and Green Bay.
(12:44):
So I think that there were definitely some positive signs
for Anthony Miller at the end of the season. So
we are gonna go ahead and head into break here
on the daily Road to hour on sports Crede TV.
When we return, we're gonna keep going through the NFC
North and turn our attention to the Green Bay Packers
team with some controversial guys that pretty much every level
(13:06):
of their team in fantasy football. We will see you
guys on the other side of break talking Aaron Rodgers,
Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and the rest of the crew
in just a few minutes. Sports grid dot Com Betting
insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers
the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge
(13:29):
than get on the grid sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone,
and welcome back from break here on the Daily Road
to Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Maddock, joined
today by Ricky Sanders, continuing our team previews for fantasy
football and gambling purposes here on the Daily Road to Hour,
(13:51):
going through the NFC North today, turning our attention to
the Green Bay Packers after examining the Chicago Bears in
our first segment. And you know, I think the right
place to start with the Packers is, is Ricky really
we should just ask and answer the question do we
buy the Packers turning themselves into a run heavy team,
(14:13):
you know, trying to mimic that approach that the San
Francisco forty Niners had last year that was so effective
in knocking knocking the Packers out of the playoffs in
the NFC Conference Championship game, because that's what they say.
They they're telling us they want to do that. And
then they draft a J. Dillon, They draft Josiah ta Gara,
who in the third round, who is you know, really
(14:34):
a fullback h back style players? So, you know, just
do we buy that? To begin with? So I I
buy they're gonna commit to the run. I don't buy
they're gonna be the forty niners. When you look at
the past attempts and how it's trended recently from two
thousand eighteen, Aaron Rodgers in a full sixteen games from
(14:56):
to nine last year, so about thirty less passing attempts,
and I mean the results interception percentage went up. There's
a bit of randomness to that. The yards per game
went way down. I think, you know LA four maybe
looks at this is I drafted Jordan's love because we
want to groom him. We don't want to, you know,
(15:17):
run Aaron Rodgers into the ground. We want him to
kind of have time to remain healthy and groom love
while he's still here. And in the meantime we could
get a little bit more pass happy as we get
Aaron Rodgers getting into his older thirties. So from that,
I get it. But you still have Aaron Rodgers under center,
you still have Davante Adams. I don't think you could
completely devolve into a run first and run the only
(15:39):
kind of team when you have a quarterback like this
and in a competitive division where you very often we'll
be playing from behind. So I think, you know, I
think they think that's where it's gonna go. But when
all said and done, like i'd be surprised if we're
talking about Aaron Rodgers under sixty passent house. So just
for for context for people, these Aaron Rodgers passing attempt
(16:01):
numbers for the last three seasons, which to me, this
is the last three seasons is when we began to
see the decline of of Aaron Rodgers two hundred and
thirty eight passing attempts in that injury filled season, five
hundred and ninety seven passing attempts in five hundred and
sixty nine last year. In the thirteen and three season.
(16:23):
His finishes in Fantasy though UH ninth at quarterback last year,
UH six that quarterback the year before, and then had
the QB one season in. So you know, it's not
that it's not that Rogers is bad Ricky, It's just
that his ceiling weeks have been a little bit fewer
and farther between. Right. So if we go back and
(16:44):
look at last year, he had three or more touchdown
passes in only UH in only three games, five touchdown
game against Oakland, four touchdown game against the Giants and
then three hundred and three against the can The City Chiefs.
But he also had three games with zero passing touchdowns
at all. I mean, I think thinking about Aaron Rodgers, like,
(17:06):
think about Aaron Rodgers having a zero touchdown game like that,
It seems absurd. Yeah, And I think maybe we can
take this into a daily fantasy conversation really quick in
that we know in daily fantasy football, you want to
stack quarterbacks with receivers, right, And when a quarterback has
an outlier passing performance in terms of touchdowns meaning four
(17:28):
or five touchdowns, you very often want to double stack
him with receivers because then you end up getting more
exposure to you know, multiple guys who could both have
a hundred and a touchdown and you're looking for that
upside sort of week like, is Aaron Rodgers anymore someone
that you want to be rostering a ton? Because it
feels like on most weeks you could get most of
(17:49):
the Aaron Rodgers value from just rostering Davante Adams. I
don't know if this year I'm gonna be on you know,
four millionaire weeks on you know, either of the sites
that I have to use Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams
and someone else. I think, you know, Aaron Rodgers weeks,
you could get enough of him having like the multiple
(18:11):
Davante Adams touchdown game and the potential for him to
run for a touchdown. So it kind of like works
into the conversation that we were talking about that his
ceiling isn't quite high as it used to be because
we used to feel great about those five touchdown weeks.
You stack him with Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings, and
you know, you think you could get those weeks out
of him. I just don't think there's enough pass catchers
on this team to feel good about it. Yeah, it's
(18:33):
just it really is just a different team. You know,
you look at the way they've invested in their team
and you see a lot of running backs, and you know,
the wide receiver room is uh, you know, it's just
it's it's a lot different. So let's go ahead and
look at the wide receiver and tight end combos here.
So first off, you know, they get rid of Jimmy Graham.
They they they cut him. He signs with division rival
(18:56):
the Chicago Bears, and I'm sure the Packers are are
so upset about that. They didn't want Jimmy Graham to
come back and haunt them. So they're they're tight end
rotation is uh, they're blocking tight ends are Mercedes Lewis
and Robert Tannian. Then j Sternberger would be the guy
here who has a little bit of ceiling. Uh, the
guy he played at ku UH Community College and Texas
A and m played at all those places in UH
(19:19):
in college. I I like Sternberger. I think he is
a legitimate late round tight end to target this year.
But I mean, well, first of all, do you agree
with me on that assessment. Do you have a little
bit of interest in in Sternberger as a late round
tight end? Yeah? You heard the coaching staff talking about
potentially working him out of the slot, which makes me
I mean, you have to have interest here considering the
(19:40):
lack of alternatives. Alan Lazard looks like he's the default
number two here, but I mean Laser Laser, the guy
with fifty plus targets last year. I know he came
on late, but I think anyone who is big on
this team you got to have interested in because where
are Aaron Rodgers touchdowns going? If he's gonna flirt with
(20:02):
thirty other than Davante Adams. Sternberger is a guy who
is big, so I think he can catch touchdowns. Yeah,
I certainly I think that is true. I think he
is a worthy late round target for sure. So Davante Adams,
uh do we do you believe he is firmly the
second wide receiver in Fantasy? No, it goes Michael Thomas,
(20:24):
then Davanta Adams. I mean we could see a preposterous
volume season from Davanta Adams. He could be targeted two
hundred times. I think Ricky, I I legit think that
is in play. I mean he was pretty much on
page for that last year, hundred and twenty seven targets
in twelve games, so over ten targets a game, he
(20:45):
was basically at a thousand yards five touchdowns. I actually
think was outlier low for Davante Adams, unless you you know,
factor in that look. He's the clear guy that the
defenses will be targeting to slow down in the past
s game. But if Jay Sternberger, could you know, show
that he's viable, I think Aaron Jones will get used
(21:06):
in the slot a bit, which is the reason for
adding A. J. Dillon to the team. I think there's
different ways they can deploy this team where still Davante
Adams is going to be, you know, an excellent threat
on this team. I think to two targets is not
you know, unattainable. I drafted him in our auction League four.
I think it was the second most of any receiver,
(21:27):
significantly cheaper than Michael Thomas. So I'm a believer in
Davante Adams just because you look everywhere else, Aaron Jones
is a good pass catcher. I think Lazard has the
trust of Aaron Rodgers, but none of them screened that
they're going to give any sort of run to Tavante
Adams for being, you know, the top target man in
this offense. Do we do we buy any kind of
(21:48):
Devon funtious resurgence, like, you know, just let let Aaron rock.
You know what. I can kind of see Devon Funches
playing like a remember when James Jones had like a
thirteen touchdown seeason for the Packers. Like I could kind
of see him playing that role where he's not catching,
he's not catching a ton of passes, he's not being
targeted all that frequently, but when he is getting targeted,
(22:11):
they are really valuable targets, you know, down the field,
in the end zone places like that, Like I I
could I could see that happening. Well, that like assumes
that Aaron Rodgers still has like a thirty plus touchdown season,
is right, Yeah, And I'm not sure that's the case.
I think his role at best is like an aging
(22:31):
Angklon Bolden move the sticks sort of dude. I don't
really see him as like a massive touchdown threat. He
is the body for it, but I mean he's just
kind of been dust for a while, and I'm not
sure that going to this team that's focused more on
running is the perfect setup or even a good set
up for for a bounce back sort a year. I
think if he ended up, you know, a fantasy wide
(22:52):
receiver four could I see that, Sure, But I don't
think he really has the upside for much beyond that. Yeah.
Something I don't hate doing for Best Ball is drafting
both Funcius and Lazard Lasers. However you say it, I
think both of those two guys are I think both
of those two guys are sort of interesting in in
(23:13):
that role. Like I could see that being a strategy
that pays off, especially because they are. You know, they're
just they're just so cheap. And of course, my boy,
my boy Marquez Valdes scaling. You know, it's just it's
it's probably not gonna happen for him, but I really,
I really want to make it happen. It's a it's
a big bummer, but we should talk about the running room,
(23:33):
the running back room. There now Aaron Jones going as
a mid to late second round pick, and last season
he scored twenty touch at nineteen touchdowns on two eighty
five touches. He was targeted sixty eight times, recorded two
hundred and thirty six rushing attempts. Obviously ran super hot,
but the touchdowns, um, ricky, the the issue with Jones is, uh,
(23:56):
there's well, there's a couple of things. First, is he
had pretty big split. It's when Davontae Adams was in
and when Davontae Adams was out in terms of his
touchdown usage and in terms of his usage in the
passing game, like he just you know, he just was
lower on the packing order than than Davontae Adams. But also,
(24:16):
I mean that's an insane amount of touchdown luck, like
like just like too much touchdown luck for us to
expect to be repeatable or anything like that. So where
are you at on Aaron Jones, Like, where are you
setting the over under for touchdowns this year? I think
like nine and a half? Nine? Yeah, yeah, I mean
so from that perspective, I mean getting a back who
(24:38):
still should get you know, I think that the touches
two plus is a fine number. He was a two
thirty six last year. Uh and a guy who you mentioned,
you know, his targets increased in the games without Davante Adams.
I still think sixty targets on a team with just
a complete lack of receivers is a decent number. But
because he was so lucky, I thought he was a
(24:59):
guy who was going to sneak into the first round
this year. But you know, the field seems sharper. But
I think at the end of the second round in Fantasy,
even with a j. Dillon there, who's gonna steal some touchdowns?
Like if weak factor in that we think the over
unders nine and a half, and you think you could
get nine touchdowns from a guy who still should be
mostly the workforce towards the end of the round. I
think that's a fair price and I think that risk
(25:20):
is by them and baked in. Yeah, I think, uh,
I think that probably is. I think you're right. I
think that it is sort of baked in. I think
where you will run into problems with Aaron Jones is
if they use all three guys. So if A. J.
Dillon is getting used on the goal line some, Jamal
Williams is getting used on passing down some, I think
(25:41):
you're gonna run into a really big problem there, in which, Yeah,
Aaron Jones is gonna have some startable games. There's gonna
be some games you're really glad to have him, you know,
might have a couple of three touchdown games, might have
some games with some long runs. But he's kind of
gonna become the volatile version of like a best ball
wider ever where you never really know when the best
(26:02):
weeks are gonna come, and he's gonna be a better
asset in uh, you know, best ball leagues than in
redraft leagues. And you never want to feel that way
about your your second round pick. So we're gonna go
ahead and head into break now here on the Daily
Road to Hour, We're going to continue our conversation on
the NFC North with the Minnesota Vikings when we return.
We're saving the worst for last, with this division going
(26:23):
to the Detroit Lions last. So I'm gonna go ahead
and head into break, returning to talk about Kirk Cousins
and Adam Feeling in just a moment. Sports grid dot
Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want
(26:46):
the edge than get on the grid sports grid dot
Com M you're watching Sportscreen. Hello everyone, and welcome back
(27:08):
from break. Here on the daily Road to Hour on
sportscred TV. I'm Davis Manic, joined today by Ricky Sanders,
continuing our series of NFC North team previews for fantasy
football and sports betting purposes. We have to uh. We
have to now move to UH. I think Ricky a
pretty boring team as far as as far as fantasy
teams can go. Not a ton of changes for the
(27:31):
Vikings year over year. They have replaced Steph Diggs with
Justin Jefferson. But I don't really know how much you know.
Adam Theeland's role is gonna change. I don't know how
much Irv Smith Junior's role is going to change. Do
you agree with my assessment that the Vikings just seem
kind of boring? Yeah. The most exciting thing is the
holdout of the running back situation. Yeah, I mean that's
(27:55):
for fantasy purposes. The thing that mostly everyone's talking about,
and the thing that I'm personally excited about is to
see how well Justin Jefferson basically asserts himself year one
because I have a feeling that I think he could be,
you know, just as productive as feeling in year one,
which is a crazy thing to say. But how productive
were the receivers in general last year? They weren't, I mean,
(28:17):
feeling average four point eight targets per game. Would it
shocked me if it's you know, run heavy team once again? Um?
But yeah, because it is such a run heavy team.
We're looking at the running backs, We're looking at Dalvid
Cook saying how much time are you gonna miss? And
we're looking at the FanDuel lines here over under eight
and a half wins and their favorite to make the playoffs.
(28:39):
I'm like, not that excited about either of those lines
for the Vikings. Yeah, I mean, if you look at
the distribution tree for targets for the Vikings last year,
ninety four targets for digs, he's gone. So we can
probably pencil in Justin Jefferson for eighty to a hundred targets,
you know, kind of in that realm. You know, probably
(29:00):
like four catches a game if if he turns out
to be a good NFL player, you know, obviously there's
some bust potential with all these guys. Dalvin Cook sixty
three targets in fourteen games, three point eight receptions per game,
forty eight targets for Adam Feeling in ten games. I
mean that is started startlingly low, right, like just it
(29:20):
feels weird to think about, you know, Adam Feeling like
we all love him, um, you know, people like to
draft him, and he was really low. And then Rudolph
forty eight targets, IRV Smith Jr. Forty seven, Old B. C.
Johnson forty five. I mean this team Ricky through only
four hundred and sixty six forward passes, Like that's crazy. Yeah. No,
(29:41):
Kevin Stefanski though, remember he left for Cleveland, so different
offense here. Still Mike Zimmer, who likes to focus on
defense coaching this team, So I don't know. I think
there's a potential we get over five passing attempts from
this team, especially if they're not quite as competitive as
we think without uh Dalvin Cook. And I've seen people
(30:02):
speculating online, you know, saying running backs don't matter. But
Madison is a much worse back than Dalvin Cooke, so
over time, you would think this offense would notice the difference.
I still feel good, obviously about Alexander Madison and daily
fantasy and yearly fantasy while he's starting, but I wonder
if they're not just able to pound the ball down
the throat with Madison that you know, in a small
(30:23):
sample he averaged more yards per tempt last year than
Dalvin Cook. But I don't think you could take the
samples one for one seeing is how many more attempts
I mean two and a half more attempts for Dalvin
Cook than Alexander Madison. If you saw, you know, Madison
with two fifty touches, Are we getting a four and
a half yard per carry player. We don't really know
the answer to that yet, and if the answer is no,
(30:43):
all of a sudden, this team could be getting behind.
This team could be having to throw and you could
see multiple hundred plus target receivers in this offense. Again,
I don't think that's that's out of the question, which
is why I took feeling in our auption league. I
feel good about him, and which is why I'm loading
up on the Justin Jefferson chairs is I think people
are just assuming that the way they ran their offense
last year is the way that they're going to run
(31:05):
things this year. But especially if there's no Dalvin Cook,
you can't just found the football down your opponent's throats. Something. Uh,
something I might be wondering is if they give Mike
Boone a little bit of of a longer look. So
last season, you know, everyone remember Mike Boone was he
was the stone cold chalk in weeks sixteen and really disappointed. Well, yeah,
(31:26):
he had eleven carries twenty eight yards, one target, one
reception against Green May and twenty three to ten loss.
And then against Chicago the next week's seventeen carries a
hundred forty eight yards, uh, a touchdown, three targets, two
receptions for twelve yards. I'm wondering if maybe Boone gets
a little bit more of a look. Maybe maybe Boone
(31:47):
is actually, you know, the more you know, maybe the
more explosive runner, you know, and and maybe Madison and
Boone end up in some sort of time share that
would you know, and that that is definitely a way
that they've able to keep their their ground and pound ways.
So I assume I've seen in the NFC recently that
Madison's moved up to like a fifth or sixth rounder.
(32:08):
I assume it's too high for you. If you think
that Boone can work his way into this backfield, then
that's just asking for disaster that early where you can
be getting an impact receiver. And I think I'm on
the same side as you are, although I'm monitoring this
situation closely. I do tend to bet against the guys
who are holding out. But if you're not getting the
(32:30):
workhorse back to step in, and all of a sudden,
you're getting a guy at a time share, like are
we talking about a top thirty back at all? If
he's gonna start for four games and and split during
that time and then you know, Dalvin Cook comes back,
it's just a lot of risk for a player that early. Well,
the reason why I am not drafting Madison there is.
I just think it's really hard for a running back
(32:54):
to hold out now because the way that the c
b A is worded, so the way that the way
that the CED is worded now is that these guys
who hold out, um, they don't accrue the year of
service time. So if he holds out and the Vikings
just don't crack at all, I mean, Dalvin Cook might
just play for the Vikings his whole career because he's
(33:14):
never gonna crue enough service time to run out his
rookie deal. So so what I'm doing in fantasy drafts now, though,
is I am not drafting Alexander Madison with a top
seven round pick. You know, I think it's very different
than drafting Austin Ekeler that early last year because Ekeler
was gonna have some sort of role, you know pretty
much no matter what, he was gonna catch passes, he
(33:35):
was going to be someone, uh, you know, worst case scenario,
he was gonna be like Tart Cohen basically, and that's
not gonna happen with Madison. If Dalvin Cook comes back,
doesn't hold out, like he's just gonna be the dude
he is going to start for them, you know what
I mean? Yeah, I mean Madison was a guy who
only worked in sporadically. But he was twelve targets. He
didn't touch ten of them if you're looking for a
(33:55):
positive here, But you know, a guy with a hundred
rushing attempts to Dalvin Cooks to fifty, you would think
it would be proportional in terms of the targets, and
it's not. If you want to go the two and
a half metric to see you know, kind of the
snaps and the snaps weren't even perfectly in order. But
we're talking about like thirty targets if he, you know,
had the same sort of playing time, So not like
a real threat to catch a ton of passes. But
(34:17):
I think IRV Smith Jr. Is probably a guy we
should talk about because he was the talk of the
off season before the Vikings drafted a receiver. It's funny,
like did people think they weren't going to after the
Stefan Dames thing? Like why did the IRV Smith you know,
hype train basically slow down. He's twenty two years old.
We know Kyle Rudolph is entering the latter stages of
(34:38):
his career, he's gonna be thirty one. He caught six
touchdowns last year, IRV Smith caught two. It would not
shock me. I mean football moves very quickly. If that
turned around this year, I think, you know, the over
under for IRV Smith touchdowns this year should be like
four and a half. I think he's going to clearly
see an uptick in usage, regardless of what happens with
(34:58):
you know, justin Jefferson's role, Adam Feeling. I feel like
it's is the alpha. But this has been an offense
that's looked to the tight end in the red zone,
and I think this is officially IRV Smith's time. I
think Kyle Rudolph is just getting too old. I think
there is a lot of different ways that this season
can play out favorably for IRB Smith Jr. The first
(35:18):
would be he takes over Kyle Rudolph right, so Kyle
Rudolph becomes the reserve tight end, RBS Smith becomes the
guy who is playing more of the snaps. The second
would be the team lining him up as a wide
receiver more just basically being like, look, we could play
old the BC Johnson or or Chad Beatie, or we
can play you. We spent a higher draft pick on you.
(35:40):
We think you're better. We want you to play more, so,
you know, playing some wide receiver snaps, playing in the
red zone more. Um. Also, Justin Jefferson could just not
be ready, right. We can see like a G. J.
Shark Ish rookie year where Justin Jefferson is not quite ready,
not physically there enough, not not strong enough to play
as an NFL wide receiver. And in that event, I
(36:03):
think that the way that the Vikings would play would
be just a lot of twenty one personnel. So so
you know, two tight ends. And at that point, I
mean IRV Smith Jr. Probably Projects for like eight targets
or something, and like, I mean, that's a guy you
definitely want to have on your fantasy teams, like a
huge chunk of them. Yeah exactly. I mean I think
(36:26):
IRV Smith's a guy I'm gonna be I'm gonna be
buying at his a DP right now. I mean so
since the start of February, which is probably more of
the sample that we need to be looking at. But
IRV Smith is being drafted after O. J. Howard, who
I think is pretty dead. I think this this is
probably because of the sample, but he's being basically drafted
(36:46):
tight end twenty or later. I think he has the
upside to be a tight end one. I don't think
that's a crazy thing to say. I don't think both
Justin Jefferson and him are gonna hit big enough. I
just don't think there's gonna be enough volume you But
I think if I'm wrong about Justin Jefferson, it's probably
because IRV Smith Jr. Took a big role in the
(37:07):
passing game. Yeah that, um, that does probably end up
being true. So let's let's let's kind of think out
Dalvin Cook here, because we know that, you know, workhorse
running backs are really at a premium these days. You know,
before any of those rumors up hold out, Dalvin Cook was,
I mean, he was sometimes going as the third running
back off the board, but pretty much every draft he
(37:28):
was going top six every time, no matter what, you know,
it is CMC, it's sae Quan, it's Zeke Kamara, and
Dalvin right, So so he is in that group. And
I think that Dalvin Cook maybe holding out has done
some interesting things to the market. So people are really
I think, probably overvaluing Miles Sanders a little bit, overvaluing
(37:50):
Joe Mixon, overvaluing Josh Jacobs, overvaluing Derrick Henry, all of
those guys a little bit. But I mean, you know,
when when do you take Dalvin Cook? Now, when do
you value that role as a running back? How do
you how do you compare that to the fact of, well,
maybe you just don't get Dalvin Cook at all, maybe
he just doesn't play at all this season, which I
(38:10):
think is unlikely, but it's possible. I can tell you
high stakes players aren't overreacting as much as I thought
they would be. Since the beginning of May. The latest
Dalvin Cook has gone in any draft is tenth overall.
I would have thought there would have been a draft
where people would be really scared of this guy, like
the latest Derrick Henry has gone by comparison seventeenth Joe
(38:32):
Mix and Miles sandersy three, so they you know, teams
have been scared to the point where he falls. These
guys fall to the end of the second round, and
that hasn't been the case with Dalvin Cook. I think
for me, I would start taking the chance on him
after Kenyan Drake was off the board. I think I
just again I've view Kenyan Drake is an RB one
this whole offseason, and so I think they're close enough
(38:55):
where I take him Miles Sanders Dalvin Cook. That's when
I start thinking Dalvin Cook. Yeah, I think so that.
I think um Drake is the line for me as well.
I think at this point I would rather have Miles
Sanders and Kenyan Drake, but you know, I would the
the upside with Cook is so good, and I think
that you're getting a you know, kind of a discount
on him there in the um in the back half
(39:18):
of the first round. So we're gonna go ahead and
head into break here on the Daily Road Hour on
sports Gride TV. When we returned going to the bottom
of the NFC North with the Detroit Lions, Matt Stafford
Kenny Golladay will continue that discussion when we get that
sports grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
(39:42):
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome to our
final segment here on the Daily Road Hour on Sport
Great TV. I'm Davis Mannock joined by Ricky Sanders. We
(40:04):
have started going through our NFL team previews here on
the show, thinking that of all the things we know,
it is certain the NFL is going to play no
matter what, They're finding a way to play these games.
So going through team by team, position by position, all
the important guys that you need to know, have gone
through three teams of the NFC North, the Packers, the Vikings,
(40:26):
and the Chicago Bears. Now we are sitting with the
Detroit Lions, and uh, you know what I am. I'm
probably actually a little bit higher than the market on
the Detroit Lions because you know what I I think
Matt Stafford is good, Ricky and I will I will
die on this hill. Maybe not. I think he is
an above average NFL quarterback. I like him. So the
(40:47):
way I kind of think of Matt Stafford is I
don't know if you were in a fraternity in college,
but there was always one guy that like your group
of friends hung out with and you would never acknowledge
was like a good dude. You there was always just
something about him that irked you. And Matt Stafford is
like that version of the guy to me in Fantasy,
and then you finally hang out with the guy and
give him a shot, and he like turns out to
(41:09):
be hilarious and you just welcome him into the group.
I feel like I've been neglecting Matt Stafford for so long,
and just looking at these numbers, it makes me wonder
why I've been off. Like the match the weight on
Matt Stafford train in Fantasy. In eight games last year,
he had dred yards. He was on pace for five
thousand and basically forty touchdowns, and for some reason, I
(41:32):
have just been on the no. I'd rather have the
Russell Wilsons. I'd rather go, you know, the Dak Prescott's,
the guys who run, and I just kind of overlook
these guys who are just pure arm strength sort of dudes,
and I think, sort of like the fraternity example, we
need to just give this guy a chance. He's not
as bad as he seems. I mean I I last
(41:53):
year argued that it would be reasonable to propose that
Matt Stafford should have gotten some m v P votes,
like not no first place m vp boats, but like third, fourth,
and fifth place because he was playing so strongly last year,
and uh, you know, I think that's uh. I think
the fact that people don't like Matt Stafford also sort
(42:13):
of drags down the ADP of his wide receivers. Now,
it's not true this year you are paying total full
price for Kenny Golladay, but you're not paying full price
for Marvin Jones, who had three less receptions in three
less games than Kenny Golladay and nine touchdowns to Kenny
(42:34):
Golladay's eleven. I mean, Marvin Jones is a legit discount,
Like you can get this guy in like the ninth
and tenth round of your best Ball drafts, Like he
is a stone cold lay up there. Yeah, there are
a lot of guys who love Marvin Jones, and there
are guys who love him. Yeah, I get it, But
he's thirty years old. And you know, the reception difference
(42:55):
doesn't mean much to me when you see the quality
of the receptions for Kenny Gallady just always seems to
be the guy that they're targeting downfield. Over eighteen yards
of reception last year compared to twelve point six for
Marvin Jones, and the catch rate was lower, but the
difficulty of touches you know, throwing to him downfield was
more difficult. So I mean, fifty catch rate not what
(43:16):
you want to see for a top receiver, but they're
feeding him with volume, and the targets weren't that closed.
A hundred and sixteen for Galladay for Marvin Jones. Look,
I have been off t. J. Hockenson for a few years,
but in terms of talent he is. I don't want
to call him up there with like the Noah Fant
and the Mike Gisiki because I think his talent is
(43:38):
slightly less than their's. But he's good enough that over
time he should be a productive tight end in this league,
and I think Kenny Galladay is the true number one.
I am okay taking the shot on Marvin Jones here,
but I think expecting nine touchdowns once again from an
aging guy. Seeing they've got Danny Amondola as you know,
kind of a possession guy to add in there. They've
(44:00):
two backs who can catch the ball. Now, I don't
know if I'm insanely high on him to the point
where I would reach any higher than his ADP. If
he felt to me, I certainly would be okay with it,
but I'd rather just pay the full price for gality. Personally, Yeah, um, now,
we don't have a big best ball tournament out right now.
I think that one probably will come, and I don't
(44:20):
know if it'll be a million bucks to first. I
don't know if it'll be a hundred thousand of first,
but I do think we should get something soon. And
I I really like doing the triple stack, and I
would love the idea of Matt Stafford at his current cost.
You know, you can get him in the round and
then you can take Kenny Golladay in the third, Marvin
(44:41):
Jones in the eighth. And I mean that is a
huge triple stack that has the ability on any given
week to combine for you know, eighty points or whatever.
So I should note that that strategy is viable from
the sense that if you put Matt Stafford on pace
last year for thirty eight touchdowns, that pace slowed down
(45:02):
significantly in the games that he did not play. We
saw a total of eight passing touchdowns in the eight
games from David blow Up and Jeff Driscoll. So if
you think, yeah, if you think that touchdown pace continues
for both players, then I understand the argument. I still
think Marvin Jones is aging, and I think t J.
(45:23):
Hockinson's two touchdowns are gonna go up by default. But
I think Golladay could give you like a thirteen fourteen
touchdown season if we get a healthy match Stafford. I
don't even see that as the ceiling for Golladay. I
see why you could. You could view Marvin Jones is
like a double digit guy, but like these secondary guys,
I view more touchdowns coming their way if you get
(45:45):
a healthy match Stafford. And I think t J. Hockenson
it finally could be his year. I mean, really, I
think this is a guy who can score over six touchdowns.
So I think we are both in on Stafford at cost.
It about DeAndre Swift at in the fifth round, you know,
he goes about, he goes right around in there, or
(46:06):
carry on Johnson in the eighth or ninth round. I
mean to me, I kind of think both of them
are are honestly a little bit unappealing. So DeAndre Swift
is getting drafted before David Montgomery in terms of volume.
The guaranteed volume for David Montgomery is so much higher.
You look at those two dred and forty just rushing
attempts last year. I think we're talking about one of
(46:30):
the heaviest volume backs in the entire league, who is
it great, which is why he's being priced there versus
DeAndre Swift, who still has carry On Johnson. They're on
a team where running backs have been a disaster as
of late. Just looking at the guys around him, I
think cam Acres maybe even has a similar, if not
better opportunity in here one than DeAndre Swift. We've talked
(46:51):
about Swift and I'm holding true to it. The price
has gotten cheaper here than it is in rookie drafts,
and I'm still not on Swift. Yeah, So I think
that there are some reasons if you are a zero
RB drafting team to like DeAndre Swift. Um. The first
would be is that carry On Johnson is a good
(47:13):
running back, but I don't think he's done enough to
be considered like unimpeachable in the Lions backfield. Like if
if Swift comes in and it's just crushing training camp,
does really well right away, you know, maybe he scores
like a long touchdown in his first game. Uh, you know,
he picks up the past blocking stuff pretty quickly. I
can totally see the Lions just being like, look, man,
(47:35):
Swift is is better. So these are these this is
what we have in carry On. Johnson's career UM as
a rookie, he played in ten games, started seven UH.
He averaged five point four yards per carry average, five
point five yards per targets, scored four touchdowns on a
hundred and fifty touches like fine, like good numbers. You
know you're you're you're not. You don't think he's terrible,
(47:56):
you don't think he's the best player in the world.
Last year, four earn in three rushing yards in eight games. UH,
scored three touchdowns again, caught one touchdown, was targeted only
fifteen times. And I think the fact that UM, this
team they keep drafting and signing pass catching running backs,
to me, I think that's an indicator that maybe they
(48:18):
they don't actually love carry On in the passing game
all that much. So Swift was a big pass catcher
at the University of Georgia. They still have Ty Johnson
on the roster. And then this this UM kind of
snap like slipped through the cracks. No one talks about
this when talking about the UH. The Lions draft, but
they draft Jason Huntley in the fifth round of the
(48:39):
NFL draft, and Huntley was like a pure pass catching
running back in college like he he is like a
Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, uh Nike hind style players. So
I kind of think they are broadcasting like Carrie on
Johnson doesn't matter to us. Yeah, and that's appealing for
DeAndre Swift. And by the way, how do you not
(49:01):
use theoretic? Is the uh oh yeah, how do I?
How do I skip past theoretic as the obvious pass
catching back there? But yeah, so from that perspective, I mean,
if you think carry On Johnson is phased out, there
are some value to DeAndre Swift. But knowing that there
is a third down back who's going to take a
bunch of that reception workload, and we know that pass
catching is in the Swift skill set, that's even a
(49:23):
bit disheartening. If you do get a scenario though, where
DeAndre Swift is crushing preseason and he looks like the
best back they have had it quite some time. I
think drafting DeAndre Swift should be correlated with you looking
at the FanDuel Sports book and taking the over six
and a half wins, because I think if this team
(49:46):
is able to establish a running game that takes them
to a level that they haven't been in quite some time.
And you can mix that with Matt Stafford on offense
and given that protection. I think you either are fading
Swift and you feel decent about this Lions under, or
you're drafting Swift and you feel decent about the Lions over. Yeah.
(50:06):
I I like that idea. I actually I actually think that. Um.
I think that you can make an argument that the
Lions are actually maybe better than the Packers right um
or or that they have the ability to win more
games than them. And I know that seems observed like
someone's yelling at someone's yelling at their TV right now,
(50:26):
but I do I I I believe I believe that
the Lions offense is fairly talented. Um are we are
we concerned at all about t J. Hockenson's offseason ankle
surgery and the report that he is perhaps not back
to one percent yet? Because I I think that, you know,
having a young tight end like Hawkinson who is amazing
(50:48):
at blocking and is a good you know, red zone threat,
a good uh you know, good third down guy like
that can do huge things to an offense. You know,
we've seen examples of that with Travis Kelsey and Rob Gronkowski,
and you know, like just those young athletic tight ends
who are very good at blocking can change the whole
direction of an offense. Are we worried that, you know,
we we might be a little bit too optimistic on
(51:09):
the Lions if Hawkinson is not healthy. So yes, from
that perspective, yes, I wanted to take a look from
a fantasy perspective where he's going after pick one thirty
four in most stress, and I think because you're making
sort of, uh, you know, a pick for the ceiling
at this point anyways, that for fantasy purposes, because we're
(51:31):
only in June, I'm not overly concerned yet. I still
think at one thirty four, if he hits, then you
might have yourself a tight end one. If he flops,
you can just drop him like basically anyone else you'd
be drafting in this area. So for fantasy purposes, yes,
if you're looking at the Lions and you know, thinking
what's going to take them to the next level, what
makes me confident that they can win seven games? I
(51:53):
think having t J. Hockinson to kind of back up
a thirty year old Marvin Williams. If anything happens with
him makes you feel a lot better, and if you
want to wake that out, I think that's fine. Yeah,
I think um, I think that is fine as well.
You know the guys who I think you can feel
pretty confident drafting at their cost for this team. I
think Matthew Stafford in terms of a past only quarterback,
(52:16):
I think he is gonna make you happy. I think
t J. Hawkinson, assuming that we get good reports on
his health. I think that he is going to be
a building block of some winning teams. And then of
course Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones and and there's a
lot of passing volume to go around in this offense
and keep everyone happy. Everyone that's gonna do it for
us Here today on the daily road to Hour on
(52:36):
sports Create TV. This has been Davis Maddock and Ricky
Sanders taking you around the NFC North as we do
our NFL team previews, and we will be back tomorrow
with even more NFL team preview coverage for all of
you sports cried dot com betting insights and entertainment at
your fingertips seven as our team covers the most important
(52:58):
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid. Sports grid dot com h
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