June 23, 2020 • 52 mins
Davis Mattek is joined by Ricky Sanders as the guys continue their NFL team previews and land in the AFC North. Davis and Ricky discuss if the Bengals can be successful with their young QB. Will Baker and the Browns bounce back? Will the Ravens and Lamar Jackson regress in 2020?
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:22):
and welcome back to the Daily Road to Our here
on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Maddock, joined today by
Ricky Sanders, and this episode of the show, we are
continuing our series of NFL team previews. We are gonna
go division by division, team by team, position by position
breakdown fantasy football impacts, how we plan on approaching these
(00:42):
teams for daily fantasy sports purposes, and talk a little
bit of season long betting as well. Uh. In our
first episode we went through the NFC North. We are
now going to switch over to the a f C North. Ricky,
really interesting teams in the division, you know, the historically
great Steelers and Ravens teams than we have you know,
(01:04):
everyone's favorite sleeper last year, the Baltimore Ravens, and then
now finally we actually have an interesting team in Cincinnati
with Joe Burrow taking over at at quarterback. So starting
here with the Steelers, I think a great place to
begin is just do we feel that Ben Roethlisberger is
capable of being back this year? See I want to
(01:29):
kind of middle that because I think everyone feels like
this version of Ben Roethlisberger should come back and which
we should see something close to it. I've seen a
lot of friends in the industry discussed Juju Smith Schuster
like he is a very good value in all drafts
because he's got his boy back in Ben Roethlisberger. But
you know, in two games last year, Roethlisberger fifty six
(01:52):
and a half percent completion rate, didn't throw a touchdown.
Now he equates that to the pain that I believe
was in his throwing elbow. Uh and says he is
the healthiest he has been in quite some time. This
this training camp, So I think I would middle it. Um.
He didn't look great last year, but if you take
him for his word, he's still a thirty eight year
(02:13):
old quarterback. And this is a team that's being given credit,
you know for solid wind totals. I mean, our tech
team did a great job earlier this offseason running some
E l O simulations which basically took the talent and
the schedules and ran simulations of their season uh and
said that, you know, this was one of the best
(02:33):
teams to bet the under because Vegas is basically given
him credit for a fully healthy Ben Roethlisberger, and it's
nine over under on fan duel with both basically the
over and the under having the exact same odds. I
think you have to, you know, look inside and see
how you feel about Ben Roethlisberger. I have drafted him
(02:53):
in some draft, so I think he will be fine
for fantasy purposes. But I still think this nine number
is tough to age. Yeah, I think that is. I
think that is probably true because I can see, you know,
a wider range of outcomes for the Steelers then in
both years then in most years, and so the I
think a primary reason for that is obviously, you know, Roethlisberger,
(03:16):
if he does get hurt. The backup quarterback situation for
Pittsburgh is really what It's the worst in the league. Right.
They have Mason Rudolph and Devlon Hodges. These guys prove
themselves to be completely incapable of you know, playing quarterback
at the NFL level, They just they just were not
any good at all. Now, granted we are not very
far removed from you know, eighteen, Roethlisberger leads the NFL
(03:40):
in completions, attempts, passing the yardage and also in interceptions
as well with sixteen. But through thirty four touchdowns over
five thousand yards. I think that's there. Are you know
a lot of supporting weapons in Pittsburgh that make Roethlisberger,
if he remains healthy, you know, a pretty decent investment
in terms of fantasy. And I don't have you know,
(04:00):
enough um confidence in my ability to watch the film
and say, you know, this is something that Roethlisberger clearly
can't do anymore as he got older. I do think
that Roethlisberger was more mobile when he was younger, was
more able to avoid that pressure in the pocket. I
think that is mostly gone. But you know, maybe the
departure of Levian Bell and and not feeling the need
(04:21):
to feed those running backs kind of the way they
did when Levian was on the team, that might, you know,
change up some of the ways this offense works. Roethlisberger
actually is a guy I probably am interested in investing
in fantasy because we've just seen his ceiling be so
high and very similar circumstances to this. Yeah, and I
thought like a main negative of this team is when
(04:43):
you looked at the receiver corps prior to the draft,
other than Juju Smith Schuster, it was really small and
it wasn't like Antonio Brown quality small receivers. So like,
obviously he's gotten it done with Brown, who is not
a big guy, being the number one, But I don't
see any Antonio Brown and James Washington or Deonte Johnson,
So it was Juju as kind of the guy. Uh,
(05:04):
their tight ends were brutal before they brought in Eric Ebron,
and they did a great thing in the draft. I
think adding Chase Claypool, who kind of gives you that
that other dimension. You've got Juju who's kind of like
an all around guy. You've got the five eleven and
five ten Washington, Deonta Johnson, and now you've got a
monster physically in Chase Claypool, who is also athletic. He's
(05:27):
one of two guys I think above six four to fifty.
You know, since the nineties, basically to run under a
four or five. The other guy was Calvin Johnson, so
it just shows how talented he is. So I think
now the mix of talent at receiver is a great
fit for honestly any quarterback, but especially one who is
who is needing kind of that other red zone guy
(05:48):
besides Eric Ebron, besides you know, James Conner, we could
hand it off to or throw some short passes and yeah,
you talk about those backup quarterbacks. It just had me thinking, like,
what would be the worst fit for Colin Kaepernick, which
is a guy we keep hearing names. Can you imagine
a quarterback room that included Ben Roethlisberger, who we know
his his trouble past, and I think two guys who
would not agree with him on many subjects in Mason
(06:11):
Rudolph and Delvin Hodges and then Colin Kaepernick. I was
just thinking that to myself, how how that would be
like the odd couple? You would need the curb music
playing at all times if that was the same quarterback room. Well,
the rumor was that Jamis Winston was going to be
the backup quarterback that they were interested in, uh, that
they were interested in signing him, and I I thought
(06:32):
that would be a good offensive fit. I don't know
how good of a personality fit it would have been,
but I would have liked to have seen them do that.
Um So, before we get into the wide receivers, I mean,
do you like either of Vance McDonald or Eric Ebron
for fantasy at all? I mean, I think Ebron is
a guy you can draft in best Ball. Probably wouldn't
mess with him in any kind of redraft formats because
(06:54):
he does. He just seems to turn up with these,
you know, two touchdown games pretty randomly. But I'm not
finding myself heavily invested in either Van's McDonald or Eric Ebron.
I like Eric Ebrown as a second tight end for fantasy.
I think if all goes well, he has the ability
to be a tight end one. Probably not like a
(07:14):
high end guy, but a guy who could get you
there because of those random touchdown reeks you know. Adding up,
we have seen you know, Heath Miller and other guys
be the the safety valve for Ben Roethlisberger in his offenses,
and at this red zone threat who you know Ben
Roethlisberger needs, especially if it turns out that Chase Claypool
(07:35):
is not comfortable playing the outside on receiver, and if that,
you know, proves to be the case, I think you're
gonna see a lot of red zone usage for Eric Ebrown.
I think, you know, the high end nine percentile outcome
is double digit touchdowns for him. So he's coming basically
for free and fantasy and for that reason, like I'm
willing to take the shot. Yeah, um, I I tend
(07:56):
to I tend to agree with that. So there is
a very interesting dynamic at play with the Steelers wide receivers,
which is that Juju Smith Schuster is a year removed
from being a first round draft pick, but was out
targeted last season by Deonte Johnson. Um, he is now
going kind of in that third fourth round mix. But
(08:16):
Deonte Johnson is now all the way drafted as you know,
seventh round pick, and James Washington has mostly been forgotten.
He's going in the last round. Chase Claypool is not
really drafted. Um, I find myself, you know, taking that
discount on Smith Schuster not paying that ceiling price for
Dante Johnson. Which side of which side of that aisle
(08:37):
are you on? Yeah? I would be more inclined to
go Juju Smith Schuster as the probable number one receiver
here and just equate last year more to the quarterback
play than the poor play of Smith Schuster, although he
did deal with some drop issues if you were watching,
he did not pass the eye test when he was
heard well exactly, and the point being like, who could
have succeeded with those guys behind under center? I think
(09:00):
it was just a losing proposition. I really worry about
the additions of Eric Ebron and Chase Claypool, their dimensions
that this offense did not have last year, and I
don't think there's a clear path to a lot of
targets to either Deonta Johnson or James Washington, being smaller guys.
I think you'll see him on some slant routes. I
think you'll see some shots taken down the field, but
(09:21):
I can't imagine them being more than like three target
per game kind of guys. If Chase Claypool proves to
be the starting receiver that I think they view them
to be, so they're they're Like you said, there's a
wide range of outcomes for the offense as a whole.
I think there's a wide range of outcomes specifically for
the receivers, depending on the readiness of Chase Claypool and
how willing the team is to just use Eric Ebon
(09:42):
in the in the red zone from the start. I
just see, you know, not great quality of work for
either Deonta Johnson and James Washington, who might even split
the work that they get. Yeah, I think that is
I think that is likely true. So we kind of
we are we're in lockstep there in leaving Johnson and
and Washington brother drafts. Actually, you know what, I do
(10:03):
like taking Johnson because I think there's a chance that
Johnson could um, you know, he could he could beat
out John's, Washington could beat out Johnson, could beat out Claypool,
and in that base eleven personnel said, I think Washington
could see you know, eighty ninety targets and that would
be pretty valuable in that offense. But the most interesting
discussion for this team is they're running backs, because you know,
(10:25):
Steelers running back one has been a great option for
fantasy pretty much the entire time. Ben Roethlisberger has been
the coach or has been the has been the quarterback,
and Mike Tomlin has been the head coach, and James
Conner has had a running back one season in this
offense last season was just banged up, like pretty much
left injured every game he played. Miss time. When we
(10:48):
saw you know, we saw Benny Snell and Jalen Samuels
as the lead back there for up you know, they
kind of traded off that, they kind of traded off
that position. So I am in on James Conner this year.
I think he's one of those guys being drafted in
the third and fourth round of drafts that pretty obviously
has a ceiling, and I think that he has more
(11:11):
of a floor than guys like Melvin Gordon, than Leonard
four Nette. Like like he is gonna be the starting
running back Week one for the Steelers and probably the
starting running back Week eight for the Steelers. And I
don't know if I can say that about a lot
of the other guys who are you know, in similar positions. Yeah,
I mean, Anthony McFarland was added to the mix, But
(11:33):
what do you view Anthony McFarland as he's five eight one,
so he's not exactly a gigantic dude. I think the
upside for his role is to be kind of like
the you know, shaken bake to this backfield. I don't
really think this team drafted him viewing him as the
guy in the immediate future, and even when James Conner
(11:54):
inevitably either goes somewhere else or retires, I think they'll
want to backfield mate for Anthony Farland. I don't think
he's a guy that you're drafting like thinking he's going
to blast off even if James Connor gets hurt. He's
just kind of a guy that you hope can do
enough if Connor gets hurt that you have like a
top twenty five running back play every sort of week.
So I'm not incredibly scared of this Anthony McFarland drafting.
(12:17):
Like I've seen some people, you know, targeting McFarland is
like the handcuff. But I think James Connor has got
enough to earn his right to be the guy, and
there just wasn't enough sample with with Ben Roethlisberger last
year to kind of, you know, knock him off his horse. Yeah,
I think that is I think that is probably true.
I think there's a lot of value to be had
(12:38):
on this team if in fact, Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy.
You know, I think that if Ben stays healthy, he'll
pay off his price tag youd you can pay off,
Johnson can pay off, and I think that you know,
Connor can pay off, and maybe even Ebron and or
Vance McDonald as well. So we're gonna go ahead and
head into break here on the Daily Road to hour
on Sports Grade TV. When we return, we will continue
(13:00):
our discussion on the a f C North by taking
a look at the Cleveland Brown too, determining if actually
last year was the growing Pains year and this year
is going to be the year where we see, you know,
some some tremendous output from Baker Mayfield and Company. Sports
grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
(13:22):
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more
want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Daily
Road of our here on sports Grid TV. I'm Davis Mannock,
joined today by Ricky Sanders. Right now, we are in
(13:45):
the middle of our NFL team previews, where we are
going around the NFL division by division, position by position
and breaking down every team from a fantasy football perspective,
from a betting perspective, from a DFS perspective, and uh,
we did the Pittsburgh Steelers in our first block. Now
we are moving further down the projected standings to the
(14:07):
Cleveland Browns. And Rick can't think a great place to
start this conversation is, Um, last year, were you a
Brown's believer or were you out on the Browns? So
I was more of a Brown's believer. Let's just be
real here. I drafted to no shame, No, yeah, I
drafted Baker Mayfield in a league that was one quarterback.
(14:28):
He was my backup quarterback in the team with like
eight teams. I think I had some exposure to Jarvis
Landry at one of my leagues, so like I was
in on them. I liked Nick Chubb, but it didn't happen.
I think I'm back on them this year. Though. If
you're asking me, like, am I gonna go double or nothing?
The answer is clearly yes, you know what, and I
I think it's reasonable. So first, as I think Freddie
(14:51):
Kitchens was a bad coach, I think that he should
have turned over play calling to Todd Monkin and didn't
do that. And I think that they are. You know,
they are better set up now with Kevin Stefanski. You know,
they have the new coaching staff in there, and Stefanski
has this long track record of success in Minnesota. And
(15:12):
you know, Baker obviously played poorly last season twenty two touchdowns,
twenty one interceptions UM, six point two adjusted yards per attempt.
But I mean this team has a lot, a lot
of talent, you know, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham,
Jarvis Landry, and then you know even their tight ends
(15:32):
David and Joeku and Austin Hooper has their tight end rotation.
Like I am, I am more inclined to believe in
this talented personnel grouping and just be like, look it was.
It was a bad year, right, and guys are allowed
to have bad years, Like you're allowed to just be
bad and you're allowed to, you know, not not perform
up to your your highest standard for for a small
period of time without me burying you. So that's where
(15:54):
I'm at with the Browns. I I am, I'm buying
the dip with the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, and you him
before you talk about the offense, obviously the defense needed
improvement and they addressed it in the draft, I mean
Grant Delpit in the second, Jordan Elliott, Jacob Phillips. This
is a team that was thirtieth in dv o A
against the run last year. If all of a sudden
(16:15):
they can just like get inch closer to the league
average in terms of run defense, then we can start
talking about the offense in which Baker Mayfield threw way
too many interceptions last year. He had a three point
nine percent interception rate. Remember we talked about those NFC
North teams yesterday. You never see Aaron Rodgers like over
a one percent rate, So that's part of the reason
(16:36):
that you know, he could feel like he's not playing
that well, but he's not killing the team, whereas Baker
Mayfield is just always, you know, towards the end of games,
you get those tweets like L O L Baker, like
he makes it one of those throws. But you adda
and Jack Conklin on the offensive lines, the guy I
love to talk about because he was a top sixth
graded offensive tackle you know, in the running game last
year for that Titans team. I think he was one
(16:58):
of their unsung heros. And you bring in Kevin Stefanski,
and I think it's a great set up for Nick
Chubb even if his volume goes down. He has a
coach that we saw take Dalvin Cook to the next level,
and now he has an offensive lineman who could help
propel him beyond the offensive line last year. It would
not surprise me if Nick Chubb leads the league in
(17:20):
yards per carry this year by a decent margin. Like,
I think he is that talented, even though I've been
touting that, like in fantasy circles, he's got to compete
with Kareem Hunt. He might not be worth his his
a DP. He is a great running back. He is
a great running back. Yeah, I mean I think Nick
Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the NFL,
(17:40):
you know, almost almost for sure. I I definitely believe
that that is true. You know, I definitely believe that
that is true about about Nick Chubbs. So are we
are we drafting Baker this year? You know? Are we?
Because in these in these best balls, now you can
take Baker as your second quarterback in thirt round, like
no problem, Like he will just be sitting there waiting
(18:02):
for you. Yeah, So the question becomes, are they going
to adopt the Stefanski offense, or there too many pieces
here for them to ignore, just all the variety of
pass catchers they have that basically we're not available last
year in Minnesota. And I'm leaning a little bit more
towards I think he has to use the pieces in
Odell Beckham, in Jarvis Landry in both the tight ends, uh,
(18:25):
in Kareem Hunt out of the backfield. The question is
will they play a lot of two tight end sets
and it will be a lot of dink and dunk
or will there be some bigger plays but that you know,
they drafted down in people's jones. Uh, and they still have,
you know, a deep wide receiver core. So I think
this setup is enough that despite the style we saw
from Stefanski, I think in the thirteenth round, Baker Mayfield
(18:47):
is worth that shot if just by the talent around him,
he you know, can just figure it out. Uh. There's
clear thirty plus touchdown upside for Baker, and no one's
given him any love because of one bad year. The
offensive line has improved, the coaching staff has approved. I
don't think the talent around him. You gotta you gotta
consider Austin Hooper and upgrade from what they had, uh
(19:07):
and in jok who is still there at tight end
number two. I think it's too much of a supporting
cast for a good quarterback to stay down for long. Yeah,
I think that is I think that is likely to
be true. So let's the fantasy value for these running backs.
Nick Chubb goes at the beginning, in the middle of
the second round in you know, all of these high
stakes leagues. I think it's rational to take him there.
(19:31):
Maybe not optimal because of the presence of Kareem Hunt.
After Kareem Hunt came back in Week ten last season,
Nick Chubb was targeted only eleven times in the passing game,
basically gave up all of the passing work that he
was getting before that. Now he still retained, you know,
a huge chunk of the team's rushing percentages and was
(19:52):
still the goal line back. And if the Browns offense
is in fact, you know, if we, if they, if they,
if we are successful in buying the dip and the
Browns are much better on offenses here, that's gonna benefit
Nick Nick Chubb to an extreme amount. But I mean,
they're just he cannot get to fourty catches there's no
way that he gets to forty catches this year, and
(20:12):
you need that to have these truly elite running back seasons. Yeah,
and you gotta take into consideration that the Browns scheme
last year was one of the slowest in the league.
And I don't think it's going to get sped too
much up by Stefanski, who did not exactly look to
play you know, no hude football. But it should be
noted that those looking at the first and second half,
(20:35):
Nick Chubb was unlucky with his red zone work in
the second half of the season, So I don't think
like the drop off was as drastic as it showed,
where he was like a twelve fantasy point per game guy. Again,
he received some some looks in the red zone, he
still was like over at red zone usage rate in
the second half, and he just didn't get it done.
(20:55):
And then you know, Kareem Hunt comes in, he finishes
it off and he looks like the hero. I still
think middle second round is a very good price for
Nick Chubb. You know what you're getting with him, and
you know the risk. But it would shock me if
he scores less than eight rushing touchdowns this year, even
with Kareem Hunt there, Okay, So better better question might be,
(21:18):
what are you doing with Kareem Hunt? Are you taking him?
Are you are you, you know, matching those guys together?
Are you are you fading one of them? Like? What?
What is the what's the overall thoughts there? So I
saw someone on Twitter earlier this week. I apologize for
not accurately accrediting for saying Nick Chubb is good, Kareem
(21:39):
Hunt is good. Is very possible that both of them
are values of their respective prices, And I think I
agree with that because Hunt is coming a few rounds later,
and you know that there's plenty of catches headed his way. Um,
I think you could draft both of them and just
know that you're talking about like a David Montgomery Tarik
Cohn sort of situation with both the guys here probably
(22:01):
being better than either of those players. So if both
the players and the Bears in this, you know, presume
situation last year, we're getting drafted with confidence. I think
the same has to hold true for what's now a
decent offensive line in a great scheme for running backs.
We saw Stefanski. I I can't you know say it enough?
What happened to Dalvin Cook in his scheme. Now there's
(22:24):
two guys here instead of one, and you may split
the fantasy production. But I think Nick Chubb is gonna
catch enough or excuse me, he's gonna run the football
enough and effectively enough that we'll see multiple hundred yard
games if you have those bonuses. I think he's good there.
And then there might be times where, you know, Kareem
Hunt catches passes and finishes off drives. Uh, and they
both have value. You both you get close to double
(22:46):
digit you know, fantasy points from both Kareem Hunt will
come cheaper. But I think obviously the upside comes in
the guy who will touch the ball more, but I
think will mean Nick Chubb. So I'm in on both
of them. Yeah, I think that is reasonable. I lean
a little bit more on taking the discount with Hunt
and just kind of trying to make my my draft
portfolio as such that, um, you know, Nick Chubb just
(23:09):
not as much of a part of it. My teams
will benefit more from a down Chub season or a
Chub injury than anything else. Now, for both of them
to pay off, the Browns would just have to go
to the moon. You know they would have to they
would have to be third in the NFL and points
scored or or something like that. But there are two
very important fantasy assets to talk about for the Browns,
so we haven't really touched on yet, which is Odell
(23:32):
Beckham and Jarvis Lanjury. O'Dell coming off of what was,
you know, the worst year of his career seven point
eight yards per target. He did get to a thousand
yards for the fifth time in his career, only four
touchdowns and you know, the lowest catch rate of his career. Uh,
you know, arguing on the sidelines obviously, you know the
(23:52):
dramatics that we always get with them with Odell Beckham,
but I I have to say, pretty discouraging. Just kind
of like that that filing. You get that vibe you
get from the Beckham like it was it was not
a good vibe. You were not watching him thinking, you know,
this is one of the best wide receivers I've ever
seen play, Like you're watching them going, man, Odell Beckham,
Just he does not look right. Yeah. I think the
(24:15):
concerns that people had with him at the draft are
starting to come to fruition as he ages and that
he's a small receiver, and if he doesn't have the
elite you know, breakaways sort of potential as he gets older,
there's gonna be issues. And he makes the ridiculous catches.
But excuse me, we're talking about a guy with the
(24:36):
catch RXT year. Could an entire season just be a fluke?
I don't know that's the case. I think Jarvis Landry
at this point might just be the better receiver on
this team. And if it's being priced that Beckham is
the guy you have to take first. Unlike the running
back thing, where I'm not willing to make a decision,
I would much rather have the value of Jarvis Landry
(24:57):
taken later. Yeah, I I think that's I think that's fair. Um,
I because the decision you have a lot of the
time now is Odell or d J. Moore, Odell or Juju,
I mean even Odell or Robert Woods, Ricky. I think
I'm leaning Robert Woods there. So you know, I loved
I loved Odell last year. Got to got burnt by that,
(25:18):
and now I'm with you. I would rather take Jarvis Lanjury,
you know, in the in the sixth round. I think, Yeah,
it seems crazy to say when you know you talk
about the talents of those players and how we viewed
them a year ago. But I think I would rather
take Robert Woods than Odell Beckham. Uh, And if it
came down to it, I think I would be making
a selection with a bunch of those other receivers that
(25:38):
you name the jujus of the world and hoping for
you know, Ben Roethlisberger to stay healthy because I view
him as having you know, top three receiver upside and
I'm not sure at this point in his career after
the season we saw from him last year, you can
really think that is that is still there with with
Odell Beckham. Yeah, I mean I think that there have
there have been many examples in the history of proof
(26:00):
ball and see and and seeing you know, wide receivers
just fall off, right, They get a groin injury, they
get a hamstring injury, and that um, you know, that
just ends up being that ends up being it for them.
So we're gonna go ahead and head into break here
now on the Daily Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV.
When we return to got to transition our attention to
the Cincinnati Bengals with Andy Dalton out of town, Joe
(26:22):
Burrow under center, Joe Mixon maybe or maybe not holding
out new new wide receiver on the perimeter, Te Higgins
and just kind of evaluate them for fantasy football and
gambling perspectives. Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
(26:44):
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid. Sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome
back from break here on the daily road to hour
on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Matdig joined Ricky Sanders
as we continue to run through our NFL team previews
(27:04):
from a fantasy football and gambling perspective. Now taking a
look at the Cincinnati Bengals as we continue our NFC
North tour, and uh, you know, Ricky, unlike most years,
this is actually a conversation that uh, some people are
interested in right like we are. We are definitely gonna
be paying attention to the Bengals this offseason, going to
be interested in watching their their games at that at
(27:27):
the start of the year because they have a new
exciting young quarterback Joe Burrow from l s U. The
first overall selection. Um, I mean we. I think you
and I both are are pretty much Joe Burrow believers. Yeah,
and I think that this five and a half line
for Vanduel in terms of their over under us a
really fair line. They won two games last year. But
(27:50):
now you bring in a young stud quarterback. Now you
bring in an additional receiver to the mix. You had
a healthy a j Green back there. You need Joe
Burrow easily to stay healthy. You talk about another team
with some brutal backups that could just kill you if
you bet the over on a team and all of
a sudden something happens to the starter. There are some
(28:10):
places we feel comfortable. This is not one of them.
And we'll talk about the guys they have behind in
a second. But I think this is a team with
the potential to win six games. I mean Cleveland, we
like the way they look. I don't know how to
feel about Pittsburgh. It's certainly possible that you know, uh,
the Ravens come back down to you know, tennis wins
(28:31):
this year. I think there are paths, certainly for this
team to to win four more games than they did
last year. I like the setup in terms of the
talent around Joe Burrow other than probably the tight ends.
And I think he has enough receivers and he's a
sharp enough dude that it shouldn't take long for him
to kind of figure it out in the NFL. And
(28:51):
we've seen before, you know that young talented quarterbacks come
in and start flinging the football and good things happen,
even if there are some other, you know, negatives on
the football team. Yeah, I mean it just it can.
It can turn your whole team around when you're when
your quarterback is young and good, you know. And in
um in some of these early best ball drafts I've
(29:11):
been doing, I actually been taking Joe Burrow because one,
I think he will run just a little bit, but
also he's so affordable to stack. So you know Tee Higgins,
John ross Um and and and there, you know all
their tight ends, Drew Sample, c. J Uzma. Like you
can do these with four of your last eight teen picks,
you know, right, So like once you pretty much drafted
(29:31):
the core of your team, you can start to stack
these guys up. And I think there's loads of ceiling there. Yeah,
I don't think Drew Sample is a ceiling player. By
the way. He's just one of those big dudes who
even if he's gonna play, he's focused on the blocking
and like you're upside for him even if he like
earns the starting role. I think it's like three four
touchdowns that he kind of falls into and it's just
(29:52):
not that big of a you know, a force in
the offense. But everyone else you mentioned definitely has potential.
I mean John Ross with a guy who could throw
the ball down the field, he could be a legitimate weapon. Now,
I think, you know, for best ball purposes, he'll be
easier to guess. But I think you know, if you're
in a bind for seasonal and you're you're playing at
(30:14):
you know, a good team, John Ross is the kind
of guy you'll want to start because you know, if
you're getting you get a victory, you're gonna need some
big performances. And he's the kind of guy that can
take the top off of defense. You've got a possession
guy in Tyler Boyd. You can kind of groom T
Higgins as needed because a J. Green Uh is still
a good receiver. He's a guy who can go up
(30:34):
and get the football. I know he's old. I know
we've talked about, you know, like Odell Beckham aging and
how worrisome that is. But a J. Green six four,
So as he ages, he's at least not losing his size.
He still should be able to go up and do
what he does best. I'm in on a J. Green specifically,
I'm in on Tyler Boyd. Uh, And I think I'm
(30:55):
willing to take the shot on the other guys later,
especially in best ball leagues, but I'm talking, you know,
regular seasonal leagues. A J. Green and Tyler Boyd are
both guys that that I am targeting, thinking that that
Joe Burrow is going to come in. Uh. And even
if he's not incredibly efficient as efficient as we think
he can be from the get go, I think they're
gonna fling the football around a lot and the volume
(31:17):
will get you there. I think that is. I think
that's likely to be true. So taking a look now
at the running back room, how do you handicap the
odds that's uh, that our boy Joe Mixon ends up
holding out, because this is a huge fantasy football story
if he does in fact hold out. So I think
thirty three percent, you know, one in three is the
(31:39):
thought that I have for him to not be there
with the team to start the year. We know holdouts
legitimately have a chance to make it into the regular season.
We've just seen it so often in the past few years.
Melvin Gordon comes to mind. Uh, Levan Bell comes to mind.
So I would never say no chance, but I don't
(32:01):
think it's a foregone conclusion either. And then the question becomes,
if Joe Mixon does hold out, are you going Giovanni
Bernard or has his time passed? And so I'm not
even sure what the way to go drafting. You know,
these backups are if Joe Mixon does sit. So it's
kind of a confusing situation for me. Uh. You know,
(32:22):
some people think that Giovanni Bernard is dust and he'll
be passed by one of these other guys. But I'm
not even sure that Mixon holds out and we'll get there.
So I think I would be fine baking some risk
into mixing, but still drafting him knowing the risks. So,
Giovanni Bernard, this is actually true. Due to a contract
(32:44):
extension he just got, he is the eighth highest paid
running back in the NFL. Do you believe that because
it's true? So if Joe Mixon holds out and he
wants to get paid more money, um, he is going
to have to. I mean like he's gonna get touches, right,
they are going to uh, they're gonna give him the ball.
And now, whether that's in a fifty fifty time share
(33:06):
with Travion Williams, you know, maybe they get uh, you know,
maybe they end up getting Rodney Anderson back healthy. You know,
Roddy Anderson from the University of Oklahoma towards a c
L twice towards a c L last year for the
Cincinnati Bengals in the preseason tour its the year before
for Oklahoma as well. I I am drafting these guys
(33:28):
late as a as lottery tickets. I I like both
of them first because you know, I think they are
good zero running back candidates anyways. But even you know,
even the five percent chance that Mixing holds out, the
both Geo and Trayvion are gonna be assets. Yeah. I
was gonna ask who you preferred between tray ViOn and Bernard.
(33:49):
I think I would go the way of Williams despite
the pay scale. I don't know how I feel about
pay scale. By the way, if the MLB plays. Just
as a side note, Prince Field, it would be the
highest paid paid player on the Rangers this year. So
I don't know if if pay is the is the
number one thing I'd go by. You love to see it, Yeah,
I mean, I I and and uh. I think the
(34:11):
big thing is though, is I'm just not in undrafting mix.
And I mean he's going in the back end of
the first round at some point a now. And I
just I don't have him projected on our projections on
sportscrid dot com. He just does not project well enough
in terms of pass catching to to justify going there.
I think No, I think right now he would have
to last to the mid second round, which I think
(34:32):
he might in some he does every once in a while. Yeah, yeah,
and there I would take the shot. But that's about
as as brave as I'm willing to get with him. Otherwise,
just give me the guys with way less worry around them. Yeah.
So the wide receivers for this team should be interesting
because you know, we do think well, first of all,
(34:54):
they were a super pass heavy offense last year under
Zach Taylor, so even in games way are they were competitive,
So so neutral to game script, they were still super
pass heavy. So you know that should make us interested
in a J. Green. In Tyler Boyd, in John Ross,
I mean even a little bit in te Higgins, maybe
a little bit in uh, probably not odd And I
(35:14):
think I think Godden Tate's time has his his time
in the sun has come and gone. I think the
the issue you are going to find with A J.
Green is he's three or two years old. He has
missed multiple games with injury over the last couple of seasons. Like,
what are what are we thinking the upside is for
(35:35):
A J. Green at this point in his career? Like
do we think we can get sixteen healthy games out
of him? You know, I just I just don't know. Yeah,
I don't know if that's if that's the likeliest scenario,
that's for sure. And I don't even know that the
thousand plus yards is what we're targeting with a J. Green.
You want to see the red zone work with a J. Green.
(35:56):
You want to see him developed that rapport with o'burrow
and fall into double digit touchdowns if you're drafting him,
and I think on a per game basis, you want
him to put up some great numbers. So look, you're
getting him at wide receiver twenty nine since basically the
start of May. In the NFC, he's being drafted behind
(36:17):
such names as t Y Hilton, Stefon Diggs, ahead of
names like Marky's Brown, Michael Gallop, Jarvis Landry. I think
I like him about there. I mean, t Y Hilton,
do you think you're getting a ton of games out
of him? I think I would rather pass on t Y.
I mean, people really like t Y Hilton. I think
I'm with you. I think if I'm gambling on an older,
(36:38):
injured wide receiver, I think I prefer a J. Green
as my as my my injured old guy exactly. I
I just think there's more of a touchdown potential. I mean,
I met t Y Hilton and he's about half my size,
So it just feels like how many years he's played
in the NFL he has to break down by default.
I know he's got a good quarterback situation now, but
(36:59):
if you get games of a J. Green and nine
touchdowns and eight hundred and fifty yards, I mean, I
think that's that's a good outcome. Is it worth taking
him there? I think Jarvis Landry, I probably like better
than him and guys that are around the same a DP. Otherwise,
I think the field is pricing him pretty reasonably at
(37:20):
this point. Yeah, yeah, I think, um, you know, I
think that's true. Do we do we have any faith
left in John Ross? Do we think that John Ross
can be you know, an explosive guy? I guess it
kind of depends on how much they decide to use
their tight ends and how ready t Higgins is. So
if te Higgins is you know, not ready in Week one,
(37:42):
not ready, not ready for prime time, you know, very
early on in his NFL career, I think there should
be a role for John Ross. And I mean theoretically
there should always be a role for someone as fast
as John Ross. Like how does a guy that fast
flame out in the NFL? And and a big part
of it is injuries for sure, But you know, it
just always seems like he's a guy that you should
(38:03):
that you should want to target later in your drafts,
especially if we think the Bengals offense is actually going
to be good this season. Yeah, the question with him
is how much would his role adjust if we expect
a J Green to miss games? Would it be te
Higgins who walked into that role, or would we see
an expanded role for John Ross because we think it's
John Ross. I think you could handicap your handcuff, excuse me,
(38:26):
your your shares of a j Green with John Ross.
I just wonder if te Higgins would get the shot then,
and the best you would see if John Ross is that,
you know, slot down the field sort of role, which
in a a Joe Burrow offense could have some value.
I just think it's gonna be frustrating. I hate to
use the term better for for best ball leagues, but
he's like, if you need a home run in a
(38:47):
given week, whether it's best ball or whether it's just
a regular league. Yeah, I mean he is. He is
much better suited for formats that reward volatility as opposed
to floors. But we're gonna go ahead and head in
you break here real quick on the daily road to
our on Sports Grade TV. When we return, we have
saved the best for last. We'll be digging into the
(39:08):
Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson and all of their weapons on offense.
So on the other side of the break, the Baltimore
Ravens in our NFC North NFL team reviews sports grid
dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips seven
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more.
(39:31):
Want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back from break. Here
on the daily Road to hour on sports Gride TV,
I'm Davis Mannick, joined by Ricky Sanders. We continue our
series of NFL team previews, going through division by division,
position by position, team by team. Uh, this has been
(39:54):
our NFC North Show. Our final team here, best for last,
the Baltimore Ravens. Um, you know, Ricky, it's just it's
just sad that Lamar was so great last year. Was
such a huge part of my fantasy football strategy, and uh,
you know, it's just it's just a real bomber to
not be able to own him in any leagues this year. Yeah.
I think the fields on him at this point, including
(40:16):
the betting markets. They've got the over runner at eleven
and a half for this Ravens team, which when he
gets into the elevens, I start getting timid for a
team to just you know, auto repeat, but you look
at the personnel here, you look at the coaching staff.
I mean early on. Have you noticed that hardball is
always always because of how he plays the players in
(40:39):
the preseason, ready early in the season. My dad kind
of turned me onto it a few years ago, but
early on. I love betting the Ravens lines because they
are just so much more well prepared than any other team,
so you can sneak out some wins early on. But
I think this division is pretty tough, and I think
obviously Lamar Jackson is legit. Everyone who said, you know,
his throwing could be a problem they were proven wrong
(41:01):
last year. But you are definitely not getting Lamar Jackson
in a discount this year. If you want him, you
have to either take him as the QB one or
t QB two. Uh. And if you wait, you know,
around too long, which could be the third round, you
just may not have a chance. Do you do you
have any concerns at all you know about regression or
(41:23):
you know, just thinking that uh, you know, just just
being worried at all that the Ravens might have some
kind of sophomore slump as a result of uh, you know,
just like look like basically looking at that Titans game
and being like, man, I I don't know. I don't
know so much about that. So because Lamar Jackson runs
for fantasy purposes, I don't have too many concerns about
(41:45):
him sliding much below like QB five, even in the
worst outcomes. That's not assuming injury. Obviously, injury can change
everything in football. You just can't predict it. But assuming health,
I think Lamar Jackson gives you a top five of season.
So in terms of safety, I think you feel good
about it, but just because of how often he is
willing to take off and give you what you need
(42:08):
via the ground. In terms of thirty six passing touchdowns,
I definitely think there's a there's a possibility that number
comes down this year. Lamar Jackson is excellent, but what
it shocked me if he threw twenty eight touchdowns as
opposed to thirty six. Uh, and you know his running
was good, but he had some you know, poor touchdown luck.
Adding j K. Dobbins to that backfield, yeah, I think
(42:29):
there are some some scenarios in which Lamar Jackson is
fantasy QB five or six is opposed to QB one
or two, and for the betting market, I think that
would matter if he's not throwing thirty six touchdowns because
the Ravens offense as a whole would be slightly less effective.
So I just have timid to bet the over eleven
and a half sort of numbers. That's just me personally.
(42:50):
I think, you know, gunneda had I probably would take
the over if I had to. But it's a really
scary number. Uh yeah, it is. It is very scary.
So to give people an idea, they scored on fifty
of their drives last year. That was more than the Chiefs,
more than the Saints, more than the forty niners, you know,
by by quite a significant amount. And they were they
(43:13):
were just the most efficient running team in the NFL
as well. And obviously, you know, we expect teams to
be we expect teams to run efficiently that have really good,
efficient running quarterbacks. But there there are just a lot
of reasons to look at the Ravens, Ricky and say,
they're just gonna have to play way more competitive games
this year because they're just they're not gonna have two
(43:35):
touchdown leads in all these games. They're not gonna be
able to to salt Away games the way that they
were last season. That's that's sort of my basic thought
on on the Ravens is that, yes, I think they're
gonna be great, um, but no, I I am largely
concerned that that they just are going to be a
little bit worse in terms of efficiency. Yeah. I mean,
(43:56):
other coaches have a year worth of sample size and
Lamar jack And that they didn't have last year, and
the division teams have now seen him multiple times. Uh,
and so I just don't think they're surprising anyone like
they did last year. It's not like the receiving tour is,
you know, drastically improved. I still think, you know, Mark Andrews,
Marquis Brown, those are your top guys here, and you know,
(44:19):
talent wise, I think Mark Andrews is a very good
tight end. Is Marquis Brown a guy that you can
rely on year to year for like massive numbers? I
don't know. Potentially with Lamar Jackson. I just think for
a variety of reasons, including the improvements in the division
that we've talked about, the fact that the Bengals could
be a six win team, the fact that the Steelers
could have you know, Ben Roethlisberger back, the fact that
(44:40):
the Browns now look like an improved team with with
a new coach and an improved offensive line and even
additional weapons. I just think it's gonna be difficult for
them to kind of just completely run away with things,
at least more so than last year. And yes, more
competitive games could mean some some watered downstats compared plee
for Jackson, so j K. Dobbins mark Ingram. Literally they're
(45:06):
going back to back in fantasy drafts right now. Whichever
one of them goes first, it seems like that's the
trigger for the other one to be selected. And a
lot of these high stakes and competitive drafts, I actually
am kind of different than the market here. I lean
a little bit on the side of Dobbins, right and
and the reason I feel that way is I think
(45:26):
he's got a little bit better upside as it as
it pertains to you know Ingram gets injured. I think
you know Ingram, as I believe he is thirty two
years old, you know, just a little bit more likely
to be injured, a little bit more likely to see
a significant decline in performance. And Dobbins just has upside
in terms of, you know, being better athletically than we thought.
(45:48):
Dobbins was a really good pass catcher, you know, Ingram
really not that big of a pass catcher last year
for the Ravens, though he did have some receiving touchdowns
and and I guess you know you can always hang
your hat on on that, but we know, starting running
back for the Ravens really good job to have. I mean,
mark Ingram last year was the starting running back for
the Ravens, only played about of the team snaps, but
(46:11):
still had a great fantasy season just because there's so
many touchdowns available. Yeah, and like thirty of the rushing share,
which has a lot to do with Lamar Jackson to
be fair, but like for a number one back on
a team, the two attempts was pretty low for marketing.
And mind you he missed the game, but Gus Edwards
number two, one thirty three, just Justice Hill amongst the
(46:33):
backs fifty eight attempts. If all of a sudden we
think that Edwards and Hill are mostly out of the
offense because they're going more of a two headed monster,
it would not shock me if it's like mark Ingram
one dobbin hundred and seventy five in terms of rushing
attempts like we could see them very close, and if
they are going to be that close, I think you
(46:54):
got a bet on the talent of Dobbins, like I
like mark Ingram's. I think they will use them at
the goal line to fair amount. You will still get
some some scores from him, but you got to take
the newer thing. And I know he averaged five yards
per rush last year in this offense, but I think
there's a reason that they took Dobbins here. They view
him as the starter of the future. And if he
starts off hot, I think they're going to play the
(47:16):
hot hand here and do what it takes to win.
And mark Ingram at thirty one years old, eventually he's
got to hit a wall, both in terms of you know,
slowing down and the injuries settling settling in So I
think there's a lot of risk with him that there
just isn't with Dobbin's and right if Ingram goes down
all of a sudden, I mean, Dobbin's a true, true,
true fantasy RV one guy we're starting every week and
(47:38):
day in daily and a guy who can win you
year leagues. Absolutely. So last season, the passing distributions in
Baltimore go like this. They only threw four hundred and
twenty or four four targeted passes four hundred and forty
total passes, so that includes some throwaways. No One, not
one player on the team over a hundred targets. Mark Andrews,
(48:02):
Marky's Brown seventy one targets in fourteen games, Willie Sneed
forty six targets. Nick Boyle fourth on the team with
forty three. Hayden Hurst, third string tight end, fifth on
the team in targets. Um, this is actually a true,
a true fact that just blew my mind to to
hear Ricky So last season Michael Thomas had more targets
(48:27):
than all of the wide receivers on on Baltimore combined,
Anthony and Miko our Boyd. Sports Grid tweeted that out
seemed insane. It's true, though, So you add Markey's Brown,
Willie Sneed, Seth Roberts, Miles Boykin, Chris More, Jalil Scott,
you add those guys up, and it's it's I mean,
it's crazy, right that those guys were on an offense
(48:49):
that through for thirty six touchdowns and they they did
they didn't even get to eighty targets. So I don't
know if that makes me feel good or bad about
looking this unit this year like they do they have
room to improve or is this a situation where you
know if they're in more I don't know. I'm just
(49:11):
I'm confused as to what to feel about them. I
was going to ask you about Mark Andrews. What do
you think the over under for targets this year is
if you think they're playing in more competitive games just
because the league is catching up to them. He missed
a game last year. Targets over under a hundred and
eight and a half targets for for Mark Andrews this year, Um,
(49:31):
I think I take over because they trade Hayden Hurst right,
and that's gonna be that's gonna be pretty big, and
they don't really have a ready made replacement, so Andrews
might go because remember Mark Andrews didn't even play the
snaps for the Ravens last year. He there were a
lot of games where he really was only in an obvious,
(49:51):
you know, kind of passing situations, so should play some
more snaps. We think more competitive games should mean more
pass attempts, but decreased efficiency, So I think I would
take the over there. I mean, the guys that I
really want to target in the Ravens passing game, you know,
are going to be Andrews. And I'm I'm actually a
(50:13):
big believer in Marcy's Brown. I think he played banged
up last year, and I think that he can get
to like a hundred hundred and ten targets this year.
And with his speed and Lamar's ability to you know,
create that separation in the pocket and get the ball
down the field, I'm I'm super high on on markis Brown.
So I like both of those guys. Yeah, it's weird
(50:34):
to say, but I think this is a poor landing
spot for Devid DuVernay because you wanted him with the
volume quarterback. He was like the truest of slot receivers
in this draft, the guy who could rack up the receptions.
But because of the focus on running in this offense,
I don't think you're going to see him get to
the PPR type of numbers that he would have gotten elsewhere.
(50:56):
So he was a guy that I really wanted to
land with, like Tom Brady or one of those sort
of quarterbacks you could rely on a guy like him
and he goes to Lamar Jackson, which you would think like,
hell yeah, the Baltimore Ravens all they do is score points.
I actually think he was a negative for him. And
like you look at the other receivers other than Marquis Brown,
(51:17):
I don't think the possession receiver is like the greatest
stuffits here. Maybe Duvernet takes some of the role of
like you know, the three tight ends that they had
last year. Now that they someone's gotta do it. Someone's
gotta play third tight end. Yeah, so maybe Duverna plays
third tight end. But because of the lack of alternatives
and guys that you think you know are just like
(51:37):
down the field threats who when Lamar Jackson fakes the
defense out could be a big play guy. I mean
Marky's Brown obviously than the number one dude. Yeah, I
I definitely I think that is true. And and I
think you know a good message for us to think
about for the Ravens is, yes, they are going to
be a little bit worse. You know, they might lose
(51:59):
some games we expect them to win. They might cut
down in terms of total points scored. But actually those
things are probably good for fantasy because they're not gonna
have as many blowouts and there should be more targets, um,
you know, to go around. So I think really heavily
targeting J K. Dobbins, Marquis Brown, and Mark Andrews is
you know a good strategy for us this year, but
(52:19):
everyone that is going to do it for us. Here
at the Daily road To Hour on Sports Grade TV,
I'm Davis Maddick signing off for Ricky Sanders. I hope
you guys are all enjoying this series and we will
be back next week with a continued exploration of every
NFL team. Sports grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
(52:43):
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid. Sports grid dot Com
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
listen live, all you have to do is download the
I Heart Radio app and search for Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Also,
if you want to catch this show on video, for
sure to check out Zoo TV channel seven nineteen and
that's where you can find Sports Grids Fantasy Sports Network.
Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:22):
and welcome back to the Daily Road to Our here
on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Maddock, joined today by
Ricky Sanders, and this episode of the show, we are
continuing our series of NFL team previews. We are gonna
go division by division, team by team, position by position
breakdown fantasy football impacts, how we plan on approaching these
(00:42):
teams for daily fantasy sports purposes, and talk a little
bit of season long betting as well. Uh. In our
first episode we went through the NFC North. We are
now going to switch over to the a f C North. Ricky,
really interesting teams in the division, you know, the historically
great Steelers and Ravens teams than we have you know,
(01:04):
everyone's favorite sleeper last year, the Baltimore Ravens, and then
now finally we actually have an interesting team in Cincinnati
with Joe Burrow taking over at at quarterback. So starting
here with the Steelers, I think a great place to
begin is just do we feel that Ben Roethlisberger is
capable of being back this year? See I want to
(01:29):
kind of middle that because I think everyone feels like
this version of Ben Roethlisberger should come back and which
we should see something close to it. I've seen a
lot of friends in the industry discussed Juju Smith Schuster
like he is a very good value in all drafts
because he's got his boy back in Ben Roethlisberger. But
you know, in two games last year, Roethlisberger fifty six
(01:52):
and a half percent completion rate, didn't throw a touchdown.
Now he equates that to the pain that I believe
was in his throwing elbow. Uh and says he is
the healthiest he has been in quite some time. This
this training camp, So I think I would middle it. Um.
He didn't look great last year, but if you take
him for his word, he's still a thirty eight year
(02:13):
old quarterback. And this is a team that's being given credit,
you know for solid wind totals. I mean, our tech
team did a great job earlier this offseason running some
E l O simulations which basically took the talent and
the schedules and ran simulations of their season uh and
said that, you know, this was one of the best
(02:33):
teams to bet the under because Vegas is basically given
him credit for a fully healthy Ben Roethlisberger, and it's
nine over under on fan duel with both basically the
over and the under having the exact same odds. I
think you have to, you know, look inside and see
how you feel about Ben Roethlisberger. I have drafted him
(02:53):
in some draft, so I think he will be fine
for fantasy purposes. But I still think this nine number
is tough to age. Yeah, I think that is. I
think that is probably true because I can see, you know,
a wider range of outcomes for the Steelers then in
both years then in most years, and so the I
think a primary reason for that is obviously, you know, Roethlisberger,
(03:16):
if he does get hurt. The backup quarterback situation for
Pittsburgh is really what It's the worst in the league. Right.
They have Mason Rudolph and Devlon Hodges. These guys prove
themselves to be completely incapable of you know, playing quarterback
at the NFL level, They just they just were not
any good at all. Now, granted we are not very
far removed from you know, eighteen, Roethlisberger leads the NFL
(03:40):
in completions, attempts, passing the yardage and also in interceptions
as well with sixteen. But through thirty four touchdowns over
five thousand yards. I think that's there. Are you know
a lot of supporting weapons in Pittsburgh that make Roethlisberger,
if he remains healthy, you know, a pretty decent investment
in terms of fantasy. And I don't have you know,
(04:00):
enough um confidence in my ability to watch the film
and say, you know, this is something that Roethlisberger clearly
can't do anymore as he got older. I do think
that Roethlisberger was more mobile when he was younger, was
more able to avoid that pressure in the pocket. I
think that is mostly gone. But you know, maybe the
departure of Levian Bell and and not feeling the need
(04:21):
to feed those running backs kind of the way they
did when Levian was on the team, that might, you know,
change up some of the ways this offense works. Roethlisberger
actually is a guy I probably am interested in investing
in fantasy because we've just seen his ceiling be so
high and very similar circumstances to this. Yeah, and I
thought like a main negative of this team is when
(04:43):
you looked at the receiver corps prior to the draft,
other than Juju Smith Schuster, it was really small and
it wasn't like Antonio Brown quality small receivers. So like,
obviously he's gotten it done with Brown, who is not
a big guy, being the number one, But I don't
see any Antonio Brown and James Washington or Deonte Johnson,
So it was Juju as kind of the guy. Uh,
(05:04):
their tight ends were brutal before they brought in Eric Ebron,
and they did a great thing in the draft. I
think adding Chase Claypool, who kind of gives you that
that other dimension. You've got Juju who's kind of like
an all around guy. You've got the five eleven and
five ten Washington, Deonta Johnson, and now you've got a
monster physically in Chase Claypool, who is also athletic. He's
(05:27):
one of two guys I think above six four to fifty.
You know, since the nineties, basically to run under a
four or five. The other guy was Calvin Johnson, so
it just shows how talented he is. So I think
now the mix of talent at receiver is a great
fit for honestly any quarterback, but especially one who is
who is needing kind of that other red zone guy
(05:48):
besides Eric Ebron, besides you know, James Conner, we could
hand it off to or throw some short passes and yeah,
you talk about those backup quarterbacks. It just had me thinking, like,
what would be the worst fit for Colin Kaepernick, which
is a guy we keep hearing names. Can you imagine
a quarterback room that included Ben Roethlisberger, who we know
his his trouble past, and I think two guys who
would not agree with him on many subjects in Mason
(06:11):
Rudolph and Delvin Hodges and then Colin Kaepernick. I was
just thinking that to myself, how how that would be
like the odd couple? You would need the curb music
playing at all times if that was the same quarterback room. Well,
the rumor was that Jamis Winston was going to be
the backup quarterback that they were interested in, uh, that
they were interested in signing him, and I I thought
(06:32):
that would be a good offensive fit. I don't know
how good of a personality fit it would have been,
but I would have liked to have seen them do that.
Um So, before we get into the wide receivers, I mean,
do you like either of Vance McDonald or Eric Ebron
for fantasy at all? I mean, I think Ebron is
a guy you can draft in best Ball. Probably wouldn't
mess with him in any kind of redraft formats because
(06:54):
he does. He just seems to turn up with these,
you know, two touchdown games pretty randomly. But I'm not
finding myself heavily invested in either Van's McDonald or Eric Ebron.
I like Eric Ebrown as a second tight end for fantasy.
I think if all goes well, he has the ability
to be a tight end one. Probably not like a
(07:14):
high end guy, but a guy who could get you
there because of those random touchdown reeks you know. Adding up,
we have seen you know, Heath Miller and other guys
be the the safety valve for Ben Roethlisberger in his offenses,
and at this red zone threat who you know Ben
Roethlisberger needs, especially if it turns out that Chase Claypool
(07:35):
is not comfortable playing the outside on receiver, and if that,
you know, proves to be the case, I think you're
gonna see a lot of red zone usage for Eric Ebrown.
I think, you know, the high end nine percentile outcome
is double digit touchdowns for him. So he's coming basically
for free and fantasy and for that reason, like I'm
willing to take the shot. Yeah, um, I I tend
(07:56):
to I tend to agree with that. So there is
a very interesting dynamic at play with the Steelers wide receivers,
which is that Juju Smith Schuster is a year removed
from being a first round draft pick, but was out
targeted last season by Deonte Johnson. Um, he is now
going kind of in that third fourth round mix. But
(08:16):
Deonte Johnson is now all the way drafted as you know,
seventh round pick, and James Washington has mostly been forgotten.
He's going in the last round. Chase Claypool is not
really drafted. Um, I find myself, you know, taking that
discount on Smith Schuster not paying that ceiling price for
Dante Johnson. Which side of which side of that aisle
(08:37):
are you on? Yeah? I would be more inclined to
go Juju Smith Schuster as the probable number one receiver
here and just equate last year more to the quarterback
play than the poor play of Smith Schuster, although he
did deal with some drop issues if you were watching,
he did not pass the eye test when he was
heard well exactly, and the point being like, who could
have succeeded with those guys behind under center? I think
(09:00):
it was just a losing proposition. I really worry about
the additions of Eric Ebron and Chase Claypool, their dimensions
that this offense did not have last year, and I
don't think there's a clear path to a lot of
targets to either Deonta Johnson or James Washington, being smaller guys.
I think you'll see him on some slant routes. I
think you'll see some shots taken down the field, but
(09:21):
I can't imagine them being more than like three target
per game kind of guys. If Chase Claypool proves to
be the starting receiver that I think they view them
to be, so they're they're Like you said, there's a
wide range of outcomes for the offense as a whole.
I think there's a wide range of outcomes specifically for
the receivers, depending on the readiness of Chase Claypool and
how willing the team is to just use Eric Ebon
(09:42):
in the in the red zone from the start. I
just see, you know, not great quality of work for
either Deonta Johnson and James Washington, who might even split
the work that they get. Yeah, I think that is
I think that is likely true. So we kind of
we are we're in lockstep there in leaving Johnson and
and Washington brother drafts. Actually, you know what, I do
(10:03):
like taking Johnson because I think there's a chance that
Johnson could um, you know, he could he could beat
out John's, Washington could beat out Johnson, could beat out Claypool,
and in that base eleven personnel said, I think Washington
could see you know, eighty ninety targets and that would
be pretty valuable in that offense. But the most interesting
discussion for this team is they're running backs, because you know,
(10:25):
Steelers running back one has been a great option for
fantasy pretty much the entire time. Ben Roethlisberger has been
the coach or has been the has been the quarterback,
and Mike Tomlin has been the head coach, and James
Conner has had a running back one season in this
offense last season was just banged up, like pretty much
left injured every game he played. Miss time. When we
(10:48):
saw you know, we saw Benny Snell and Jalen Samuels
as the lead back there for up you know, they
kind of traded off that, they kind of traded off
that position. So I am in on James Conner this year.
I think he's one of those guys being drafted in
the third and fourth round of drafts that pretty obviously
has a ceiling, and I think that he has more
(11:11):
of a floor than guys like Melvin Gordon, than Leonard
four Nette. Like like he is gonna be the starting
running back Week one for the Steelers and probably the
starting running back Week eight for the Steelers. And I
don't know if I can say that about a lot
of the other guys who are you know, in similar positions. Yeah,
I mean, Anthony McFarland was added to the mix, But
(11:33):
what do you view Anthony McFarland as he's five eight one,
so he's not exactly a gigantic dude. I think the
upside for his role is to be kind of like
the you know, shaken bake to this backfield. I don't
really think this team drafted him viewing him as the
guy in the immediate future, and even when James Conner
(11:54):
inevitably either goes somewhere else or retires, I think they'll
want to backfield mate for Anthony Farland. I don't think
he's a guy that you're drafting like thinking he's going
to blast off even if James Connor gets hurt. He's
just kind of a guy that you hope can do
enough if Connor gets hurt that you have like a
top twenty five running back play every sort of week.
So I'm not incredibly scared of this Anthony McFarland drafting.
(12:17):
Like I've seen some people, you know, targeting McFarland is
like the handcuff. But I think James Connor has got
enough to earn his right to be the guy, and
there just wasn't enough sample with with Ben Roethlisberger last
year to kind of, you know, knock him off his horse. Yeah,
I think that is I think that is probably true.
I think there's a lot of value to be had
(12:38):
on this team if in fact, Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy.
You know, I think that if Ben stays healthy, he'll
pay off his price tag youd you can pay off,
Johnson can pay off, and I think that you know,
Connor can pay off, and maybe even Ebron and or
Vance McDonald as well. So we're gonna go ahead and
head into break here on the Daily Road to hour
on Sports Grade TV. When we return, we will continue
(13:00):
our discussion on the a f C North by taking
a look at the Cleveland Brown too, determining if actually
last year was the growing Pains year and this year
is going to be the year where we see, you know,
some some tremendous output from Baker Mayfield and Company. Sports
grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
(13:22):
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more
want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Daily
Road of our here on sports Grid TV. I'm Davis Mannock,
joined today by Ricky Sanders. Right now, we are in
(13:45):
the middle of our NFL team previews, where we are
going around the NFL division by division, position by position
and breaking down every team from a fantasy football perspective,
from a betting perspective, from a DFS perspective, and uh,
we did the Pittsburgh Steelers in our first block. Now
we are moving further down the projected standings to the
(14:07):
Cleveland Browns. And Rick can't think a great place to
start this conversation is, Um, last year, were you a
Brown's believer or were you out on the Browns? So
I was more of a Brown's believer. Let's just be
real here. I drafted to no shame, No, yeah, I
drafted Baker Mayfield in a league that was one quarterback.
(14:28):
He was my backup quarterback in the team with like
eight teams. I think I had some exposure to Jarvis
Landry at one of my leagues, so like I was
in on them. I liked Nick Chubb, but it didn't happen.
I think I'm back on them this year. Though. If
you're asking me, like, am I gonna go double or nothing?
The answer is clearly yes, you know what, and I
I think it's reasonable. So first, as I think Freddie
(14:51):
Kitchens was a bad coach, I think that he should
have turned over play calling to Todd Monkin and didn't
do that. And I think that they are. You know,
they are better set up now with Kevin Stefanski. You know,
they have the new coaching staff in there, and Stefanski
has this long track record of success in Minnesota. And
(15:12):
you know, Baker obviously played poorly last season twenty two touchdowns,
twenty one interceptions UM, six point two adjusted yards per attempt.
But I mean this team has a lot, a lot
of talent, you know, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham,
Jarvis Landry, and then you know even their tight ends
(15:32):
David and Joeku and Austin Hooper has their tight end rotation.
Like I am, I am more inclined to believe in
this talented personnel grouping and just be like, look it was.
It was a bad year, right, and guys are allowed
to have bad years, Like you're allowed to just be
bad and you're allowed to, you know, not not perform
up to your your highest standard for for a small
period of time without me burying you. So that's where
(15:54):
I'm at with the Browns. I I am, I'm buying
the dip with the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, and you him
before you talk about the offense, obviously the defense needed
improvement and they addressed it in the draft, I mean
Grant Delpit in the second, Jordan Elliott, Jacob Phillips. This
is a team that was thirtieth in dv o A
against the run last year. If all of a sudden
(16:15):
they can just like get inch closer to the league
average in terms of run defense, then we can start
talking about the offense in which Baker Mayfield threw way
too many interceptions last year. He had a three point
nine percent interception rate. Remember we talked about those NFC
North teams yesterday. You never see Aaron Rodgers like over
a one percent rate, So that's part of the reason
(16:36):
that you know, he could feel like he's not playing
that well, but he's not killing the team, whereas Baker
Mayfield is just always, you know, towards the end of games,
you get those tweets like L O L Baker, like
he makes it one of those throws. But you adda
and Jack Conklin on the offensive lines, the guy I
love to talk about because he was a top sixth
graded offensive tackle you know, in the running game last
year for that Titans team. I think he was one
(16:58):
of their unsung heros. And you bring in Kevin Stefanski,
and I think it's a great set up for Nick
Chubb even if his volume goes down. He has a
coach that we saw take Dalvin Cook to the next level,
and now he has an offensive lineman who could help
propel him beyond the offensive line last year. It would
not surprise me if Nick Chubb leads the league in
(17:20):
yards per carry this year by a decent margin. Like,
I think he is that talented, even though I've been
touting that, like in fantasy circles, he's got to compete
with Kareem Hunt. He might not be worth his his
a DP. He is a great running back. He is
a great running back. Yeah, I mean I think Nick
Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the NFL,
(17:40):
you know, almost almost for sure. I I definitely believe
that that is true. You know, I definitely believe that
that is true about about Nick Chubbs. So are we
are we drafting Baker this year? You know? Are we?
Because in these in these best balls, now you can
take Baker as your second quarterback in thirt round, like
no problem, Like he will just be sitting there waiting
(18:02):
for you. Yeah, So the question becomes, are they going
to adopt the Stefanski offense, or there too many pieces
here for them to ignore, just all the variety of
pass catchers they have that basically we're not available last
year in Minnesota. And I'm leaning a little bit more
towards I think he has to use the pieces in
Odell Beckham, in Jarvis Landry in both the tight ends, uh,
(18:25):
in Kareem Hunt out of the backfield. The question is
will they play a lot of two tight end sets
and it will be a lot of dink and dunk
or will there be some bigger plays but that you know,
they drafted down in people's jones. Uh, and they still have,
you know, a deep wide receiver core. So I think
this setup is enough that despite the style we saw
from Stefanski, I think in the thirteenth round, Baker Mayfield
(18:47):
is worth that shot if just by the talent around him,
he you know, can just figure it out. Uh. There's
clear thirty plus touchdown upside for Baker, and no one's
given him any love because of one bad year. The
offensive line has improved, the coaching staff has approved. I
don't think the talent around him. You gotta you gotta
consider Austin Hooper and upgrade from what they had, uh
(19:07):
and in jok who is still there at tight end
number two. I think it's too much of a supporting
cast for a good quarterback to stay down for long. Yeah,
I think that is I think that is likely to
be true. So let's the fantasy value for these running backs.
Nick Chubb goes at the beginning, in the middle of
the second round in you know, all of these high
stakes leagues. I think it's rational to take him there.
(19:31):
Maybe not optimal because of the presence of Kareem Hunt.
After Kareem Hunt came back in Week ten last season,
Nick Chubb was targeted only eleven times in the passing game,
basically gave up all of the passing work that he
was getting before that. Now he still retained, you know,
a huge chunk of the team's rushing percentages and was
(19:52):
still the goal line back. And if the Browns offense
is in fact, you know, if we, if they, if they,
if we are successful in buying the dip and the
Browns are much better on offenses here, that's gonna benefit
Nick Nick Chubb to an extreme amount. But I mean,
they're just he cannot get to fourty catches there's no
way that he gets to forty catches this year, and
(20:12):
you need that to have these truly elite running back seasons. Yeah,
and you gotta take into consideration that the Browns scheme
last year was one of the slowest in the league.
And I don't think it's going to get sped too
much up by Stefanski, who did not exactly look to
play you know, no hude football. But it should be
noted that those looking at the first and second half,
(20:35):
Nick Chubb was unlucky with his red zone work in
the second half of the season, So I don't think
like the drop off was as drastic as it showed,
where he was like a twelve fantasy point per game guy. Again,
he received some some looks in the red zone, he
still was like over at red zone usage rate in
the second half, and he just didn't get it done.
(20:55):
And then you know, Kareem Hunt comes in, he finishes
it off and he looks like the hero. I still
think middle second round is a very good price for
Nick Chubb. You know what you're getting with him, and
you know the risk. But it would shock me if
he scores less than eight rushing touchdowns this year, even
with Kareem Hunt there, Okay, So better better question might be,
(21:18):
what are you doing with Kareem Hunt? Are you taking him?
Are you are you, you know, matching those guys together?
Are you are you fading one of them? Like? What?
What is the what's the overall thoughts there? So I
saw someone on Twitter earlier this week. I apologize for
not accurately accrediting for saying Nick Chubb is good, Kareem
(21:39):
Hunt is good. Is very possible that both of them
are values of their respective prices, And I think I
agree with that because Hunt is coming a few rounds later,
and you know that there's plenty of catches headed his way. Um,
I think you could draft both of them and just
know that you're talking about like a David Montgomery Tarik
Cohn sort of situation with both the guys here probably
(22:01):
being better than either of those players. So if both
the players and the Bears in this, you know, presume
situation last year, we're getting drafted with confidence. I think
the same has to hold true for what's now a
decent offensive line in a great scheme for running backs.
We saw Stefanski. I I can't you know say it enough?
What happened to Dalvin Cook in his scheme. Now there's
(22:24):
two guys here instead of one, and you may split
the fantasy production. But I think Nick Chubb is gonna
catch enough or excuse me, he's gonna run the football
enough and effectively enough that we'll see multiple hundred yard
games if you have those bonuses. I think he's good there.
And then there might be times where, you know, Kareem
Hunt catches passes and finishes off drives. Uh, and they
both have value. You both you get close to double
(22:46):
digit you know, fantasy points from both Kareem Hunt will
come cheaper. But I think obviously the upside comes in
the guy who will touch the ball more, but I
think will mean Nick Chubb. So I'm in on both
of them. Yeah, I think that is reasonable. I lean
a little bit more on taking the discount with Hunt
and just kind of trying to make my my draft
portfolio as such that, um, you know, Nick Chubb just
(23:09):
not as much of a part of it. My teams
will benefit more from a down Chub season or a
Chub injury than anything else. Now, for both of them
to pay off, the Browns would just have to go
to the moon. You know they would have to they
would have to be third in the NFL and points
scored or or something like that. But there are two
very important fantasy assets to talk about for the Browns,
so we haven't really touched on yet, which is Odell
(23:32):
Beckham and Jarvis Lanjury. O'Dell coming off of what was,
you know, the worst year of his career seven point
eight yards per target. He did get to a thousand
yards for the fifth time in his career, only four
touchdowns and you know, the lowest catch rate of his career. Uh,
you know, arguing on the sidelines obviously, you know the
(23:52):
dramatics that we always get with them with Odell Beckham,
but I I have to say, pretty discouraging. Just kind
of like that that filing. You get that vibe you
get from the Beckham like it was it was not
a good vibe. You were not watching him thinking, you know,
this is one of the best wide receivers I've ever
seen play, Like you're watching them going, man, Odell Beckham,
Just he does not look right. Yeah. I think the
(24:15):
concerns that people had with him at the draft are
starting to come to fruition as he ages and that
he's a small receiver, and if he doesn't have the
elite you know, breakaways sort of potential as he gets older,
there's gonna be issues. And he makes the ridiculous catches.
But excuse me, we're talking about a guy with the
(24:36):
catch RXT year. Could an entire season just be a fluke?
I don't know that's the case. I think Jarvis Landry
at this point might just be the better receiver on
this team. And if it's being priced that Beckham is
the guy you have to take first. Unlike the running
back thing, where I'm not willing to make a decision,
I would much rather have the value of Jarvis Landry
(24:57):
taken later. Yeah, I I think that's I think that's fair. Um,
I because the decision you have a lot of the
time now is Odell or d J. Moore, Odell or Juju,
I mean even Odell or Robert Woods, Ricky. I think
I'm leaning Robert Woods there. So you know, I loved
I loved Odell last year. Got to got burnt by that,
(25:18):
and now I'm with you. I would rather take Jarvis Lanjury,
you know, in the in the sixth round. I think, Yeah,
it seems crazy to say when you know you talk
about the talents of those players and how we viewed
them a year ago. But I think I would rather
take Robert Woods than Odell Beckham. Uh, And if it
came down to it, I think I would be making
a selection with a bunch of those other receivers that
(25:38):
you name the jujus of the world and hoping for
you know, Ben Roethlisberger to stay healthy because I view
him as having you know, top three receiver upside and
I'm not sure at this point in his career after
the season we saw from him last year, you can
really think that is that is still there with with
Odell Beckham. Yeah, I mean I think that there have
there have been many examples in the history of proof
(26:00):
ball and see and and seeing you know, wide receivers
just fall off, right, They get a groin injury, they
get a hamstring injury, and that um, you know, that
just ends up being that ends up being it for them.
So we're gonna go ahead and head into break here
now on the Daily Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV.
When we return to got to transition our attention to
the Cincinnati Bengals with Andy Dalton out of town, Joe
(26:22):
Burrow under center, Joe Mixon maybe or maybe not holding
out new new wide receiver on the perimeter, Te Higgins
and just kind of evaluate them for fantasy football and
gambling perspectives. Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
(26:44):
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid. Sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome
back from break here on the daily road to hour
on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Matdig joined Ricky Sanders
as we continue to run through our NFL team previews
(27:04):
from a fantasy football and gambling perspective. Now taking a
look at the Cincinnati Bengals as we continue our NFC
North tour, and uh, you know, Ricky, unlike most years,
this is actually a conversation that uh, some people are
interested in right like we are. We are definitely gonna
be paying attention to the Bengals this offseason, going to
be interested in watching their their games at that at
(27:27):
the start of the year because they have a new
exciting young quarterback Joe Burrow from l s U. The
first overall selection. Um, I mean we. I think you
and I both are are pretty much Joe Burrow believers. Yeah,
and I think that this five and a half line
for Vanduel in terms of their over under us a
really fair line. They won two games last year. But
(27:50):
now you bring in a young stud quarterback. Now you
bring in an additional receiver to the mix. You had
a healthy a j Green back there. You need Joe
Burrow easily to stay healthy. You talk about another team
with some brutal backups that could just kill you if
you bet the over on a team and all of
a sudden something happens to the starter. There are some
(28:10):
places we feel comfortable. This is not one of them.
And we'll talk about the guys they have behind in
a second. But I think this is a team with
the potential to win six games. I mean Cleveland, we
like the way they look. I don't know how to
feel about Pittsburgh. It's certainly possible that you know, uh,
the Ravens come back down to you know, tennis wins
(28:31):
this year. I think there are paths, certainly for this
team to to win four more games than they did
last year. I like the setup in terms of the
talent around Joe Burrow other than probably the tight ends.
And I think he has enough receivers and he's a
sharp enough dude that it shouldn't take long for him
to kind of figure it out in the NFL. And
(28:51):
we've seen before, you know that young talented quarterbacks come
in and start flinging the football and good things happen,
even if there are some other, you know, negatives on
the football team. Yeah, I mean it just it can.
It can turn your whole team around when you're when
your quarterback is young and good, you know. And in
um in some of these early best ball drafts I've
(29:11):
been doing, I actually been taking Joe Burrow because one,
I think he will run just a little bit, but
also he's so affordable to stack. So you know Tee Higgins,
John ross Um and and and there, you know all
their tight ends, Drew Sample, c. J Uzma. Like you
can do these with four of your last eight teen picks,
you know, right, So like once you pretty much drafted
(29:31):
the core of your team, you can start to stack
these guys up. And I think there's loads of ceiling there. Yeah,
I don't think Drew Sample is a ceiling player. By
the way. He's just one of those big dudes who
even if he's gonna play, he's focused on the blocking
and like you're upside for him even if he like
earns the starting role. I think it's like three four
touchdowns that he kind of falls into and it's just
(29:52):
not that big of a you know, a force in
the offense. But everyone else you mentioned definitely has potential.
I mean John Ross with a guy who could throw
the ball down the field, he could be a legitimate weapon. Now,
I think, you know, for best ball purposes, he'll be
easier to guess. But I think you know, if you're
in a bind for seasonal and you're you're playing at
(30:14):
you know, a good team, John Ross is the kind
of guy you'll want to start because you know, if
you're getting you get a victory, you're gonna need some
big performances. And he's the kind of guy that can
take the top off of defense. You've got a possession
guy in Tyler Boyd. You can kind of groom T
Higgins as needed because a J. Green Uh is still
a good receiver. He's a guy who can go up
(30:34):
and get the football. I know he's old. I know
we've talked about, you know, like Odell Beckham aging and
how worrisome that is. But a J. Green six four,
So as he ages, he's at least not losing his size.
He still should be able to go up and do
what he does best. I'm in on a J. Green specifically,
I'm in on Tyler Boyd. Uh, And I think I'm
(30:55):
willing to take the shot on the other guys later,
especially in best ball leagues, but I'm talking, you know,
regular seasonal leagues. A J. Green and Tyler Boyd are
both guys that that I am targeting, thinking that that
Joe Burrow is going to come in. Uh. And even
if he's not incredibly efficient as efficient as we think
he can be from the get go, I think they're
gonna fling the football around a lot and the volume
(31:17):
will get you there. I think that is. I think
that's likely to be true. So taking a look now
at the running back room, how do you handicap the
odds that's uh, that our boy Joe Mixon ends up
holding out, because this is a huge fantasy football story
if he does in fact hold out. So I think
thirty three percent, you know, one in three is the
(31:39):
thought that I have for him to not be there
with the team to start the year. We know holdouts
legitimately have a chance to make it into the regular season.
We've just seen it so often in the past few years.
Melvin Gordon comes to mind. Uh, Levan Bell comes to mind.
So I would never say no chance, but I don't
(32:01):
think it's a foregone conclusion either. And then the question becomes,
if Joe Mixon does hold out, are you going Giovanni
Bernard or has his time passed? And so I'm not
even sure what the way to go drafting. You know,
these backups are if Joe Mixon does sit. So it's
kind of a confusing situation for me. Uh. You know,
(32:22):
some people think that Giovanni Bernard is dust and he'll
be passed by one of these other guys. But I'm
not even sure that Mixon holds out and we'll get there.
So I think I would be fine baking some risk
into mixing, but still drafting him knowing the risks. So,
Giovanni Bernard, this is actually true. Due to a contract
(32:44):
extension he just got, he is the eighth highest paid
running back in the NFL. Do you believe that because
it's true? So if Joe Mixon holds out and he
wants to get paid more money, um, he is going
to have to. I mean like he's gonna get touches, right,
they are going to uh, they're gonna give him the ball.
And now, whether that's in a fifty fifty time share
(33:06):
with Travion Williams, you know, maybe they get uh, you know,
maybe they end up getting Rodney Anderson back healthy. You know,
Roddy Anderson from the University of Oklahoma towards a c
L twice towards a c L last year for the
Cincinnati Bengals in the preseason tour its the year before
for Oklahoma as well. I I am drafting these guys
(33:28):
late as a as lottery tickets. I I like both
of them first because you know, I think they are
good zero running back candidates anyways. But even you know,
even the five percent chance that Mixing holds out, the
both Geo and Trayvion are gonna be assets. Yeah. I
was gonna ask who you preferred between tray ViOn and Bernard.
(33:49):
I think I would go the way of Williams despite
the pay scale. I don't know how I feel about
pay scale. By the way, if the MLB plays. Just
as a side note, Prince Field, it would be the
highest paid paid player on the Rangers this year. So
I don't know if if pay is the is the
number one thing I'd go by. You love to see it, Yeah,
I mean, I I and and uh. I think the
(34:11):
big thing is though, is I'm just not in undrafting mix.
And I mean he's going in the back end of
the first round at some point a now. And I
just I don't have him projected on our projections on
sportscrid dot com. He just does not project well enough
in terms of pass catching to to justify going there.
I think No, I think right now he would have
to last to the mid second round, which I think
(34:32):
he might in some he does every once in a while. Yeah, yeah,
and there I would take the shot. But that's about
as as brave as I'm willing to get with him. Otherwise,
just give me the guys with way less worry around them. Yeah.
So the wide receivers for this team should be interesting
because you know, we do think well, first of all,
(34:54):
they were a super pass heavy offense last year under
Zach Taylor, so even in games way are they were competitive,
So so neutral to game script, they were still super
pass heavy. So you know that should make us interested
in a J. Green. In Tyler Boyd, in John Ross,
I mean even a little bit in te Higgins, maybe
a little bit in uh, probably not odd And I
(35:14):
think I think Godden Tate's time has his his time
in the sun has come and gone. I think the
the issue you are going to find with A J.
Green is he's three or two years old. He has
missed multiple games with injury over the last couple of seasons. Like,
what are what are we thinking the upside is for
(35:35):
A J. Green at this point in his career? Like
do we think we can get sixteen healthy games out
of him? You know, I just I just don't know. Yeah,
I don't know if that's if that's the likeliest scenario,
that's for sure. And I don't even know that the
thousand plus yards is what we're targeting with a J. Green.
You want to see the red zone work with a J. Green.
(35:56):
You want to see him developed that rapport with o'burrow
and fall into double digit touchdowns if you're drafting him,
and I think on a per game basis, you want
him to put up some great numbers. So look, you're
getting him at wide receiver twenty nine since basically the
start of May. In the NFC, he's being drafted behind
(36:17):
such names as t Y Hilton, Stefon Diggs, ahead of
names like Marky's Brown, Michael Gallop, Jarvis Landry. I think
I like him about there. I mean, t Y Hilton,
do you think you're getting a ton of games out
of him? I think I would rather pass on t Y.
I mean, people really like t Y Hilton. I think
I'm with you. I think if I'm gambling on an older,
(36:38):
injured wide receiver, I think I prefer a J. Green
as my as my my injured old guy exactly. I
I just think there's more of a touchdown potential. I mean,
I met t Y Hilton and he's about half my size,
So it just feels like how many years he's played
in the NFL he has to break down by default.
I know he's got a good quarterback situation now, but
(36:59):
if you get games of a J. Green and nine
touchdowns and eight hundred and fifty yards, I mean, I
think that's that's a good outcome. Is it worth taking
him there? I think Jarvis Landry, I probably like better
than him and guys that are around the same a DP. Otherwise,
I think the field is pricing him pretty reasonably at
(37:20):
this point. Yeah, yeah, I think, um, you know, I
think that's true. Do we do we have any faith
left in John Ross? Do we think that John Ross
can be you know, an explosive guy? I guess it
kind of depends on how much they decide to use
their tight ends and how ready t Higgins is. So
if te Higgins is you know, not ready in Week one,
(37:42):
not ready, not ready for prime time, you know, very
early on in his NFL career, I think there should
be a role for John Ross. And I mean theoretically
there should always be a role for someone as fast
as John Ross. Like how does a guy that fast
flame out in the NFL? And and a big part
of it is injuries for sure, But you know, it
just always seems like he's a guy that you should
(38:03):
that you should want to target later in your drafts,
especially if we think the Bengals offense is actually going
to be good this season. Yeah, the question with him
is how much would his role adjust if we expect
a J Green to miss games? Would it be te
Higgins who walked into that role, or would we see
an expanded role for John Ross because we think it's
John Ross. I think you could handicap your handcuff, excuse me,
(38:26):
your your shares of a j Green with John Ross.
I just wonder if te Higgins would get the shot then,
and the best you would see if John Ross is that,
you know, slot down the field sort of role, which
in a a Joe Burrow offense could have some value.
I just think it's gonna be frustrating. I hate to
use the term better for for best ball leagues, but
he's like, if you need a home run in a
(38:47):
given week, whether it's best ball or whether it's just
a regular league. Yeah, I mean he is. He is
much better suited for formats that reward volatility as opposed
to floors. But we're gonna go ahead and head in
you break here real quick on the daily road to
our on Sports Grade TV. When we return, we have
saved the best for last. We'll be digging into the
(39:08):
Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson and all of their weapons on offense.
So on the other side of the break, the Baltimore
Ravens in our NFC North NFL team reviews sports grid
dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips seven
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more.
(39:31):
Want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back from break. Here
on the daily Road to hour on sports Gride TV,
I'm Davis Mannick, joined by Ricky Sanders. We continue our
series of NFL team previews, going through division by division,
position by position, team by team. Uh, this has been
(39:54):
our NFC North Show. Our final team here, best for last,
the Baltimore Ravens. Um, you know, Ricky, it's just it's
just sad that Lamar was so great last year. Was
such a huge part of my fantasy football strategy, and uh,
you know, it's just it's just a real bomber to
not be able to own him in any leagues this year. Yeah.
I think the fields on him at this point, including
(40:16):
the betting markets. They've got the over runner at eleven
and a half for this Ravens team, which when he
gets into the elevens, I start getting timid for a
team to just you know, auto repeat, but you look
at the personnel here, you look at the coaching staff.
I mean early on. Have you noticed that hardball is
always always because of how he plays the players in
(40:39):
the preseason, ready early in the season. My dad kind
of turned me onto it a few years ago, but
early on. I love betting the Ravens lines because they
are just so much more well prepared than any other team,
so you can sneak out some wins early on. But
I think this division is pretty tough, and I think
obviously Lamar Jackson is legit. Everyone who said, you know,
his throwing could be a problem they were proven wrong
(41:01):
last year. But you are definitely not getting Lamar Jackson
in a discount this year. If you want him, you
have to either take him as the QB one or
t QB two. Uh. And if you wait, you know,
around too long, which could be the third round, you
just may not have a chance. Do you do you
have any concerns at all you know about regression or
(41:23):
you know, just thinking that uh, you know, just just
being worried at all that the Ravens might have some
kind of sophomore slump as a result of uh, you know,
just like look like basically looking at that Titans game
and being like, man, I I don't know. I don't
know so much about that. So because Lamar Jackson runs
for fantasy purposes, I don't have too many concerns about
(41:45):
him sliding much below like QB five, even in the
worst outcomes. That's not assuming injury. Obviously, injury can change
everything in football. You just can't predict it. But assuming health,
I think Lamar Jackson gives you a top five of season.
So in terms of safety, I think you feel good
about it, but just because of how often he is
willing to take off and give you what you need
(42:08):
via the ground. In terms of thirty six passing touchdowns,
I definitely think there's a there's a possibility that number
comes down this year. Lamar Jackson is excellent, but what
it shocked me if he threw twenty eight touchdowns as
opposed to thirty six. Uh, and you know his running
was good, but he had some you know, poor touchdown luck.
Adding j K. Dobbins to that backfield, yeah, I think
(42:29):
there are some some scenarios in which Lamar Jackson is
fantasy QB five or six is opposed to QB one
or two, and for the betting market, I think that
would matter if he's not throwing thirty six touchdowns because
the Ravens offense as a whole would be slightly less effective.
So I just have timid to bet the over eleven
and a half sort of numbers. That's just me personally.
(42:50):
I think, you know, gunneda had I probably would take
the over if I had to. But it's a really
scary number. Uh yeah, it is. It is very scary.
So to give people an idea, they scored on fifty
of their drives last year. That was more than the Chiefs,
more than the Saints, more than the forty niners, you know,
by by quite a significant amount. And they were they
(43:13):
were just the most efficient running team in the NFL
as well. And obviously, you know, we expect teams to
be we expect teams to run efficiently that have really good,
efficient running quarterbacks. But there there are just a lot
of reasons to look at the Ravens, Ricky and say,
they're just gonna have to play way more competitive games
this year because they're just they're not gonna have two
(43:35):
touchdown leads in all these games. They're not gonna be
able to to salt Away games the way that they
were last season. That's that's sort of my basic thought
on on the Ravens is that, yes, I think they're
gonna be great, um, but no, I I am largely
concerned that that they just are going to be a
little bit worse in terms of efficiency. Yeah. I mean,
(43:56):
other coaches have a year worth of sample size and
Lamar jack And that they didn't have last year, and
the division teams have now seen him multiple times. Uh,
and so I just don't think they're surprising anyone like
they did last year. It's not like the receiving tour is,
you know, drastically improved. I still think, you know, Mark Andrews,
Marquis Brown, those are your top guys here, and you know,
(44:19):
talent wise, I think Mark Andrews is a very good
tight end. Is Marquis Brown a guy that you can
rely on year to year for like massive numbers? I
don't know. Potentially with Lamar Jackson. I just think for
a variety of reasons, including the improvements in the division
that we've talked about, the fact that the Bengals could
be a six win team, the fact that the Steelers
could have you know, Ben Roethlisberger back, the fact that
(44:40):
the Browns now look like an improved team with with
a new coach and an improved offensive line and even
additional weapons. I just think it's gonna be difficult for
them to kind of just completely run away with things,
at least more so than last year. And yes, more
competitive games could mean some some watered downstats compared plee
for Jackson, so j K. Dobbins mark Ingram. Literally they're
(45:06):
going back to back in fantasy drafts right now. Whichever
one of them goes first, it seems like that's the
trigger for the other one to be selected. And a
lot of these high stakes and competitive drafts, I actually
am kind of different than the market here. I lean
a little bit on the side of Dobbins, right and
and the reason I feel that way is I think
(45:26):
he's got a little bit better upside as it as
it pertains to you know Ingram gets injured. I think
you know Ingram, as I believe he is thirty two
years old, you know, just a little bit more likely
to be injured, a little bit more likely to see
a significant decline in performance. And Dobbins just has upside
in terms of, you know, being better athletically than we thought.
(45:48):
Dobbins was a really good pass catcher, you know, Ingram
really not that big of a pass catcher last year
for the Ravens, though he did have some receiving touchdowns
and and I guess you know you can always hang
your hat on on that, but we know, starting running
back for the Ravens really good job to have. I mean,
mark Ingram last year was the starting running back for
the Ravens, only played about of the team snaps, but
(46:11):
still had a great fantasy season just because there's so
many touchdowns available. Yeah, and like thirty of the rushing share,
which has a lot to do with Lamar Jackson to
be fair, but like for a number one back on
a team, the two attempts was pretty low for marketing.
And mind you he missed the game, but Gus Edwards
number two, one thirty three, just Justice Hill amongst the
(46:33):
backs fifty eight attempts. If all of a sudden we
think that Edwards and Hill are mostly out of the
offense because they're going more of a two headed monster,
it would not shock me if it's like mark Ingram
one dobbin hundred and seventy five in terms of rushing
attempts like we could see them very close, and if
they are going to be that close, I think you
(46:54):
got a bet on the talent of Dobbins, like I
like mark Ingram's. I think they will use them at
the goal line to fair amount. You will still get
some some scores from him, but you got to take
the newer thing. And I know he averaged five yards
per rush last year in this offense, but I think
there's a reason that they took Dobbins here. They view
him as the starter of the future. And if he
starts off hot, I think they're going to play the
(47:16):
hot hand here and do what it takes to win.
And mark Ingram at thirty one years old, eventually he's
got to hit a wall, both in terms of you know,
slowing down and the injuries settling settling in So I
think there's a lot of risk with him that there
just isn't with Dobbin's and right if Ingram goes down
all of a sudden, I mean, Dobbin's a true, true,
true fantasy RV one guy we're starting every week and
(47:38):
day in daily and a guy who can win you
year leagues. Absolutely. So last season, the passing distributions in
Baltimore go like this. They only threw four hundred and
twenty or four four targeted passes four hundred and forty
total passes, so that includes some throwaways. No One, not
one player on the team over a hundred targets. Mark Andrews,
(48:02):
Marky's Brown seventy one targets in fourteen games, Willie Sneed
forty six targets. Nick Boyle fourth on the team with
forty three. Hayden Hurst, third string tight end, fifth on
the team in targets. Um, this is actually a true,
a true fact that just blew my mind to to
hear Ricky So last season Michael Thomas had more targets
(48:27):
than all of the wide receivers on on Baltimore combined,
Anthony and Miko our Boyd. Sports Grid tweeted that out
seemed insane. It's true, though, So you add Markey's Brown,
Willie Sneed, Seth Roberts, Miles Boykin, Chris More, Jalil Scott,
you add those guys up, and it's it's I mean,
it's crazy, right that those guys were on an offense
(48:49):
that through for thirty six touchdowns and they they did
they didn't even get to eighty targets. So I don't
know if that makes me feel good or bad about
looking this unit this year like they do they have
room to improve or is this a situation where you
know if they're in more I don't know. I'm just
(49:11):
I'm confused as to what to feel about them. I
was going to ask you about Mark Andrews. What do
you think the over under for targets this year is
if you think they're playing in more competitive games just
because the league is catching up to them. He missed
a game last year. Targets over under a hundred and
eight and a half targets for for Mark Andrews this year, Um,
(49:31):
I think I take over because they trade Hayden Hurst right,
and that's gonna be that's gonna be pretty big, and
they don't really have a ready made replacement, so Andrews
might go because remember Mark Andrews didn't even play the
snaps for the Ravens last year. He there were a
lot of games where he really was only in an obvious,
(49:51):
you know, kind of passing situations, so should play some
more snaps. We think more competitive games should mean more
pass attempts, but decreased efficiency, So I think I would
take the over there. I mean, the guys that I
really want to target in the Ravens passing game, you know,
are going to be Andrews. And I'm I'm actually a
(50:13):
big believer in Marcy's Brown. I think he played banged
up last year, and I think that he can get
to like a hundred hundred and ten targets this year.
And with his speed and Lamar's ability to you know,
create that separation in the pocket and get the ball
down the field, I'm I'm super high on on markis Brown.
So I like both of those guys. Yeah, it's weird
(50:34):
to say, but I think this is a poor landing
spot for Devid DuVernay because you wanted him with the
volume quarterback. He was like the truest of slot receivers
in this draft, the guy who could rack up the receptions.
But because of the focus on running in this offense,
I don't think you're going to see him get to
the PPR type of numbers that he would have gotten elsewhere.
(50:56):
So he was a guy that I really wanted to
land with, like Tom Brady or one of those sort
of quarterbacks you could rely on a guy like him
and he goes to Lamar Jackson, which you would think like,
hell yeah, the Baltimore Ravens all they do is score points.
I actually think he was a negative for him. And
like you look at the other receivers other than Marquis Brown,
(51:17):
I don't think the possession receiver is like the greatest
stuffits here. Maybe Duvernet takes some of the role of
like you know, the three tight ends that they had
last year. Now that they someone's gotta do it. Someone's
gotta play third tight end. Yeah, so maybe Duverna plays
third tight end. But because of the lack of alternatives
and guys that you think you know are just like
(51:37):
down the field threats who when Lamar Jackson fakes the
defense out could be a big play guy. I mean
Marky's Brown obviously than the number one dude. Yeah, I
I definitely I think that is true. And and I
think you know a good message for us to think
about for the Ravens is, yes, they are going to
be a little bit worse. You know, they might lose
(51:59):
some games we expect them to win. They might cut
down in terms of total points scored. But actually those
things are probably good for fantasy because they're not gonna
have as many blowouts and there should be more targets, um,
you know, to go around. So I think really heavily
targeting J K. Dobbins, Marquis Brown, and Mark Andrews is
you know a good strategy for us this year, but
(52:19):
everyone that is going to do it for us. Here
at the Daily road To Hour on Sports Grade TV,
I'm Davis Maddick signing off for Ricky Sanders. I hope
you guys are all enjoying this series and we will
be back next week with a continued exploration of every
NFL team. Sports grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
(52:43):
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid. Sports grid dot Com
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