Davis Mattek is joined by Colin Drew to recap The RBC Heritage from this past weekend and look ahead to this week's event, The Travelers Championship. Colin and Davis take a look at this weekend's event from a DFS perspective, giving you the best players by price range, along with some of their best bets for The Travelers Championship!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:21):
and welcome to the Daily road To Hour here on
sports Create TV. This is also gonna double as the
Daily Rodo going for the Green Daily Fantasy Golf Podcast.
I'm Davis Maddock, joined by Colin Drew coming off of
you know, I guess it was a dramatic Sunday Colin,
but I was not particularly interested in the outcome because
any time a fifty percent owned golfer literally you think
(00:45):
I'm making that up. Web Simpson on FanDuel and DraftKings
was owned in some contest legitimately over fifty went off
on the fandubal Sports book at to one wins. Uh
last week at Harbor Town and uh, you know, just disgusting,
just truly disgusting to me, Davis. I mean, he was
(01:05):
the top value in the Daily Redder projections, So you
can't be hating on the performance. What's the point, like
literally called, what is the point of playing daily fantasy golf? If,
like any any given week where the highest stone golfer wins,
I can guarantee it will not be a profitable week
for me. Just get I can straight up guarantee it.
Oh yeah, I mean I flushed plenty of money down
the toilet this week. All formats got closed in a
(01:27):
couple of shotdowns. But like you said, I mean I
do think obviously Web Simpson was a great value. It
shows a little bit how the DFS landscape has changed
because he was coming off of that miscut, and historically
that would be something that reduces ownership. Instead it drops
his price. Ownership is still there even higher, and he
went off as the high zone player wins the event.
You basically had to have the nuts last week to
(01:48):
win because of that, and there's always kind of a balance.
But and talk about whether or not you should play
guys when they're the highest zone player or not. Obviously
you couldn't cash without Web, but there were plenty of
people who couldn't cash with Web, and of years truly, Yeah,
because I mean, if so if we just if we
go back and look at Harbor Town a little bit here,
there were a lot of cheap guys who did well.
(02:10):
You know, Abraham Answer did very well. He was, you know,
pretty inexpensive. Our boy Sergio Garcia that we touted last
week minus nineteen, Um Dylan for Telly was actually priced
up a little bit. J. T. Poston, Michael Thompson, Um,
Ian Poulter, Harris English like the like the leaderboard which
fel Hannan too was yea, like he was super popular.
(02:31):
He's probably the most popular value play kind of in
that a K range, one of the top two or
three at least. Yeah, So that was the guy that
I did the leverage fade on this last week of
just being this dude's fifteen percent owned. Um, he's Ian Poulter.
I hate him anyways, So you know, like what's the use? Like,
I just don't know. I'm just not gonna wanna not
gonna play this guy. I was pretty bummed because, like Sergio,
(02:54):
we talked about it here and I was like, I
don't ever lock guys, but if I was gonna lock anybody,
I would lock Sergio this week. His ball striking the
week before had been among the best in the field
through two rounds, but he missed the cut because of
his putter, and the ball striking was then there again
this week, again among the best in the field. Putter
still wasn't great, but it clicked a little bit better
and obviously the top five finish at that price tag
(03:15):
was what you're looking for, um, And I think generally
like that was one of the calls I got right,
but I didn't play aggressive enough and I ended up
kind of scattering on some other guys like Snedeker miscut
hurt me quite a bit, had Decky miscut hurt me
a lot, and sung Jay miscut hurt me quite a
bit as well. So there was still some carnage out
there despite seemingly a really good leaderboard by the end
(03:37):
of the day, well, I mean the obvious carnage for me.
Longtime listeners of the show are gonna know that, you know,
when Rory McElroy goes out and uh, you know, ends
up T. Fifty four by the end of Sunday, there's
just not gonna be a realistic path for ah for
me to make money because it basically any of my
good lineups were you know, to have rower in them,
(04:00):
and uh so you know, just not not really great.
I I do want to, I do really want to
make this point though there are no more, you only
take short hitter golf courses. Like I think at this
point after watching um Harbor Town and what was the
golf course we played the first week back Colonial Colonial
golf course. UM, like the the reason that these short
(04:23):
bunters have wanted these courses in the past was just
because Rory and Bryson and Dustin weren't playing them. Like
like I just I just watched Abraham answer and and
Victor Hovlin's just like own Harbor Town golf course for
four days. I just like I no longer believe in
this um tricky instead of long golf course stuff. Well,
the wind conditions were also dead both days, and so
(04:47):
like pins you historically saw playing as tough Sunday pins,
guys were just firing at them like not scared of anything.
So you have the talent changes things for sure, and
we see that with the travelers this week. UH field
that maybe five ten years ago was really weak has
become one of the strongest in golf. And obviously this
year with the COVID stuff going on, it's gonna be
even stronger. Um. The other thing that was kind of
(05:08):
crazy is just like the minus six minus eight rounds
that are out there, guys shooting up the leaderboard and
so it was hard to like really know where you stood.
And like you can see guys making like fourteen stroke
charges over the weekend and that's definitely not something that
we're used to seeing. Yeah, um, which is uh, I
(05:29):
mean I I prefer golf to be that way. Like
I don't do not ever sign me up for a
US Open, uh minus three winner. I'm not. I'm not
interested in that in any way, shape or form. Like
I would much rather um, you know, be taking Matthew
Wolf at Steve Stricker at hundred. Like I just that's
just the type of golf I would weigh rather watch. Yeah. Yeah.
(05:50):
The other ironic thing with like Web, like the chock
getting there on like strokes game putting of all things,
was just that's just how they drove up. I mean,
that's how that's how Web does it. That like half
his strokes with the putter. Yeah. I think someone in
our slack chat, I'm I'm not exactly sure on this,
but I believe it was reported that Sergio gained eleven
(06:11):
more strokes T degree than Web, which sounds outrageous, but
also Sergio was that good. T de Green. Yeah, it's
like it was like too almost two strokes. I think
that might be a little bit high, but I think
it's like almost two strokes um around an average, so
pretty aggressive. Yes, Sergio was awesome. It'll be pretty interesting.
He got like the instant price hike, and that's something
(06:33):
that we're looking at this week. There were other guys
who kind of had big comebacks last week. Brooks Kepco
looked like he was showing kind of some old form.
Dustin Johnson played a little bit better after he'd kind
of been dust j for a while. Not not elite,
but played better, and Kepta got an instant price hike.
Sergio got an instant price hike, and so you're kind
of seeing some quick reaction in the betting markets and
(06:54):
therefore in the draft Kings and Vanduel prices for dfs
as well. Yeah, yeah, yeah, for for sure. I mean,
I I think that chasing the Sergio price hike is
something I'm likely to do this week because he was
just so good. TV Green at Harper Town. But We're
moving on now to the Travelers Championship. I believe it's
at the TPC Highlands. Is the name of the golf course. Um,
(07:19):
very short golf course. It's like just from from where
the pros are playing. It will be just over hundred yards.
This is UM famously on tour, the Bubba Watson golf Course.
He's one here three different times, which is um. I
mean that that is just incredible to have won a
golf tournament three different times at the same course like
that is UM. I don't know, it's very crazy stuff
(07:41):
and it's why Bubba is like one on the FanDuel
Sports book this week. I mean, just first of all,
do we want to get out of the way. Do
you want to tell Bubba? And I mean, you know,
I don't tell Bubba the I mean it's just an
easy pass for from a betting perspective, just can't be
paying that kind of price for Bubba. It does become
harder for dfs obviously, just because his style play is
(08:04):
conducive to DK scoring scoring. Yeah yeah, and these courses
like that we've seen the first two courses coming off
of the restart have been giving up lots of scoring
a Bubba's track record here, I think his his price
is in a place where he doesn't have to win necessarily.
He could top twenty and put up like a couple
of streaks here and there and probably be pretty good.
(08:25):
UM of course is one of the shortest courses on
tour and as far as part just a distance that
they'll play. Ever, so um the distance doesn't matter from
that perspective. But if you look at like the course fit,
it actually had a little bit more predicted power than
UM Harbor Town did in a little bit more than
the Colonial Country Club. And so I think even though
(08:47):
it is short, it's a course where historically longer players
have still been able to utilize that UM and so
especially with what we've seen up the last two weeks, Yeah,
short guys can win, but the top end players who
are long or just his live I mean, like maybe
maybe more than anything, the move in both betting markets
(09:07):
and in dfs is just to target like more aggressive players,
like players you know who will be hunting pins, you
know who are who will try like exactly like Bubba. Right,
Bubba is a tilt box and if he has the
ability to make some miraculous uh draw shot around a
tree and land at four ft from the pin. He'll
(09:28):
try and make it as opposed to like just laying
up right and and you know that's uh and because
I think is like kind of like the new normal
for these PGA Tour events. Now, we're like, if you're
not getting to twenty, you're probably not drawing live. Yeah,
I mean, it definitely seems like that will be the case. Um,
And it's the case the last couple of weeks. Seems
like it will probably be the case this week, even
(09:49):
though it's only Partsmity a lot of times, like the
easier course is relative to part usually the Parsonity two
tracks because you get the part five is mixed in there,
but it does seem like you're having to get there,
which is which is pretty crazy. Um. Also adds a
little bit of variance in there because you just have
to get hot with the putter, like you there's no
question about it. I mean, you can ball strike your
way to a solid finish minus ten or so, but
(10:11):
you have to get hot with the putter if you
want to win a part. Yeah. I mean, I do
love the the idea that like, you know, all these
people who are you know, wanting NBA back, wanting baseball back.
You know, they're they're sitting here, they're playing golf dfs,
maybe maybe for the first time or or seriously paying
(10:32):
attention to it, and they're they're hearing on all these
podcasts and and all these videos and everything like oh,
you know, like you gotta have the hot putter, but like,
don't look at stroke scan putting, and then go watch
the event. And and last week, right, so two weekends ago,
they see Maria Calla miss the short ones. They see
Bryson missed the short ones. Um, they see you know,
(10:52):
they're in the playoff, right, morrikwa misses the five ft
or two to hand it over to Burger. And then
this week they see Webb just run a a just
knocking in after twenty football and they're like, you know
what I'm getting on PGA tour and I'm strong, and
I'm sorting by strokes game putting and just playing all
those dudes. If everyone's gonna be hitting these greens, then
(11:12):
maybe that's the move. I mean, look that I mean
because of because of all these things we're talking about it,
like these courses just don't seem hard enough to test
PGA golfers at that level anymore, like putting wizards like
Denny McCarthy and Michael tom I mean, Michael Thompson was
legit like there on on Sunday afternoon. Yeah, I mean yeah,
(11:33):
he was never like really there, but he was there
for sure. And I think especially you know, at Daily Rhado,
one of the things that's easy for us is the
Showdown because we have showed down projections up for every slate,
and so that's something a lot of providers don't offer.
And the contests are huge now, and so you do
need to consider guys like that for the Showdown contest
because a lot of these players are capable of shooting
(11:53):
minus a on the course setups that we've seen, and
you have to get pretty deep in the player pool.
You want to capture one of those guys that like
one percent ownership UM. This week, the fields loaded again
the top of the field on Fandel Sports Book. From
an odds perspective, you've got Rory, JT. Bryson essentially identical.
Rory eleven to one j T and Bryson at twelve
to one UM. But those have kind of emerged as
(12:15):
like the clear three favorites in the betting markets, followed
by kind of a second tier which includes rom Webb
Simpson up at his win and then Brooks kept getting
a big price increase, so it's a star suddin Field,
Patrick Cantley at one want to return the new names
back and then Paul Casey has done really well here too,
a couple of top fives in the past five years.
(12:37):
He's playing in his first event back. I got torched
last week by guys playing in their first event back.
Padeki gone, Snedeker gone, and um, I'm I'm not sure
what to do with it, but I feel like I'm
going to knock those guys a little bit, just because
maybe that's a bias on my part, but it seemed
like there was a little bit of rust. All Right,
(12:58):
We're gonna go ahead and head into break here on
the daily Road to hour on sports Gride TV. When
we return, we will head into the DFS analysis per
price range and breakdown one of the strongest fields that
this event will pretty much ever. See sports grid dot
(13:18):
com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds predictive betting models, expert picks, and more want
the edge than get on the grid sports grid dot Com. Yeah,
(13:40):
hello everyone, and welcome back from break Here on the
daily Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Maddock,
joined by Colin Drew breaking down these guys by price range. Um.
You know, here at the top we have Rory And
did you ever think you would see eleven K Bryson
Deshambo at a full strength event? Drew b I have
(14:01):
to say, of course I did. I knew Bryson was,
but I'm not sure everyone else knew. I mean, it's
not it's shocking to me that it happened this early,
and that like the ascent has happened that fast. Obviously
not shocking for him to ever get there and one
of the most highly kind of pedigreed prospects I was
out there, so um, but it was it was a
fast ascent right like he had like some peaks early
(14:22):
in his career and then like a big wall and
then just come out right like out of the quarantine
like this, driving the ball better than anybody in the world,
gaining strokes on approach as well. Um, So yeah, I
mean it's deserved in the small sample. I just you
have to kind of like, I don't know, it's one
of those cases where you have to make a decision. Obviously,
projection models are going to take a little bit of
time to catch up to that. You kind of have
(14:44):
to make a decision whether or not this like two
sample event sample of Bryson is what it's gonna look
like going forward, or if it's just like the upside
and Rory still the better player than him, And I
think that's a big battle between those two guys. Obviously,
in the two games sample, Bryson has played better in
every facet of the game, better off the tea, better
on approach, better around the green, better putting. So it's
(15:04):
tough to make a case against Bryson right now, especially
knowing that like the distance will be rewarded again and
knowing that he's going to attack things so aggressively. Um,
I mean, I think Rory is still better, right like, like, yes,
Bryson has been better for two events. I think what
separates them right now, Never thought you'd ever hear me
say this, but what separates them right now is Rory
(15:25):
is just so much better with his wedges, right Rory
Rory short game, Um, you know, over a year sample
or fifty rounds or whatever. Like, Like, if someone offered
me a bet right now strokes gained around the green
Rory versus Bryson, Like I would take Bryson or I
would take Rory next fifty rounds for sure. Yeah, yeah,
that's probably the case. But you probably wouldn't have expected
(15:47):
Bryson to be driving the ball better than better. Yeah,
so Bryson will have more of those around the green shots.
But yeah, I mean he's been better on approach as well.
So obviously a case we made for both of those guys.
Also a case we made for Justin Thomas, who's playing
really good for him, probably has more balance to his
game than any of um, the other players, just a
little bit better with his putter recently, um a little
(16:10):
bit better on approach than Bryson at least, and and
kind of more comparable to Rory there. So those are
kind of the top three guys looking at the field.
I don't think the ownership can get too heavy on
them because there's not a ton of value this week.
There's some stuff kind of in the eight K range
that feels easy to play, but there's not a lot
of cheap miss price plays, and so I would say,
(16:31):
like Rory probably goes off ten to owned Bryson kind
of in the high teams. But I don't think either
of these guys is a candidate to get like the
five or above. Yeah, I mean, I think I think
you can profitably play Rory Bryson, j T and Rom
for sure. I mean I I um, I mean, don't
don't put me in a coffin too soon. But I
(16:52):
just I can't. I can't really see myself playing Web
on any daily fantasy format this week, like more expect
something can't lay, I'll take can't lay every time. So
pretty much anyone other than uh, pretty much anyone other
than can't lay it that or pretty much anyone other
than Web, they're at the top. Like I'm playing can't lay, um,
you know, I not even really Brooks. So so Brooks
(17:14):
and Webb for me gonna be gonna be off there.
But nine point eight can't lay. Sign me up. Yeah,
And I don't think many people will go to Web
just off the wind. They didn't go to Burger off
of his wind, and so I feel like he's gonna
get passed up. Again, probably the type of player only
have exposure to on FanDuel. Just the way roster construction
works there, you can get some of these guys lower own.
You can get three or four like top end players
(17:35):
into the lineup. So that's the only thing I can
see that KEPCA is actually a pretty interesting scenario. It's
just one of those decisions, you know. The project models
are gonna take a long time to catch up. Probably
a bit over priced here anyways, especially with Rom right there.
But uh, Kepca actually I believe matched prison last week
in the field. As far as Strokes seeing off the tea,
he didn't seem a bit more like his old self,
(17:56):
but um, you know, not as good of an all
around golfer as some of these other I was PRIs
right near him, and I still prefer Rom over Kepta.
Um yeah, I prefer Rom. So I think my stances
up at the top will be obviously loads a rory,
loads of Bryson. Where are you at with j Where
are you at with JT? Right now? I feel like
I have a I have a hard time reading him,
(18:17):
and I think it's actually kind of a little bit
unfair to him that he has not mentioned like people
don't think of him as one of the best players
in the world, but like he's better than Brooks, right, like,
but people don't think of him that way. It sucks. Yeah,
I mean I think of JT is the top five player, um,
kind of right there in the upper class. I guess
historically I've leaned on JT, like and last week I
(18:39):
was on JT more than Bryson for example, And um,
I'll probably be closer to Bryson or having them equal
this week. And so I guess I've shifted my sentiment
a little bit away, especially with seeing how easy some
of these courses have played. But yeah, JT is obviously
live to win, and I think there's a reason those
three guys are the top favorites at Vandel Sports Book. Yeah,
(19:00):
I I tend to I tend to agree with that's
kind of looking like man I and they priced DJ
back up to like dollar DJ last week was was
a big you know, that was that was just a
big building block. I kind of think that I would
I'll do is I'll just skip on Rose, skip on Morica.
It's gonna hurt me. I mean, what is abraham answer
(19:21):
going to be this week? Like two percent owned now
that he's now that he's expensive, like nine k's at
thirty three to one in the betting markets, like no, no,
no opportunity to exploit that inefficiency there. Yeah, I think
Answer probably like five to ten percent. Usually you see
you don't see a guy that's like above eight k
goo below five very often, um, but a lot of
(19:41):
times you see him in that high single digit range.
I think that's where Answer all land and um, the
name values some of these other guys, like you talk
about people are either using optimizers to build line ups
or their casual players with golf, fielding, game and time.
And when you see Justin Rose called maricaa there, Bubba
Watson with his course history, you've got DJ right there.
Like there's just there's too much name value to suck
(20:02):
up ownership along with good projections. So yeah, Answer won't
be owned this week, so I might have to I
might have to give him the bump in the daily
Road optimizer. Actually, because first of all, as what we
were talking about earlier, you know guys who were gonna
hunt for pins like Answer is gonna hunt for pins
like that dude doesn't care about anything but making birdies.
So you know, he is a guy who could run
(20:23):
into one of those random sixty twos. I mean we
didn't even mention it at the top of the show,
but Jim Furick has the course record here with a
fifty eight. And actually I was doing a little bit
of research on Wikipedia last night and before before Jim
Furick broke a record. Do you have Do you have
a guess on who held the record before Furick broke it. No,
he's like Davis Love or something like that. Dude, it's
(20:43):
can't lay And he said it when he was a
junior and like two thousand and eleven. He he shot
a sixty at this course when he was like seventeen
or whatever, which is incredible. Yeah, I mean, it definitely
feels like the type of course that, like I can't
like to be good on its really strong approach players.
Answer did leave the yield last week in Strokes game.
Approach gameed almost as much of his irons as Bryson
did off the tee um, so I thought that was
(21:06):
pretty impressive. As far as his play, I think he
hit all eighteen greens of regulation in that round on Sunday,
So a little bit heartbreaking for him that, like Simpsons putter.
Just uh torch that beautiful ball striking performance. I mean,
imagine imagine being Abraham Answer about to have your breakout performance.
You feel like you're playing just this incredible yeah, and
(21:28):
you get beat Bye bye Web Simpsons Putter. I mean,
do we want to do? We want to take a
stance on course history Paul Casey. I My my feeling
is between the two course history guys, Casey and Watson.
You probably shouldn't play a bunch of both of them,
and I prefer Bubba to Casey just in general. Yeah,
(21:51):
I think Casey, I'm like gun Shy after last week
playing Hideki steing him come out like rusty or terrible,
playing a lot of snaw ds, seeing him come out terrible,
and then I was like, there's no way, Like that
was just so dumb in hindsight, there was no way
Snez was grinding if he's caddying for his like kid
in Nashville. So I'm gonna Shy and Casey because of that,
(22:12):
Like he hasn't been over at these other two events,
and I'm sure he's been practicing a little bit, but
we saw some rush from some other top end players
and it's not like you're getting a material price discount
on him. So UM, I guess for for me, Bubba,
between those two, UM, I'm also buying a little bit
more into Justin Rose with his comeback. UM, as far
as guys that potentially I would like interfere with the
(22:32):
model a little bit, just because Rose has been pretty
good t Green since he started to come back. So um,
those are some of the guys that I'm interested in
this range in general, I think the only case against
like a Bryson and Rory is just that you need
all your guys to be inside the top twenty. And
there are some really good name values in this field,
and it is of course where a lot of low
rounds should be out there. So maybe that if you
(22:54):
go up you can't grab a couple of guys from
this range. Yeah, I think. I think that if you
really like Rose, I mean maybe you really maybe you're
one of those dudes who really likes Morikawa. Maybe you're
buying a return to form for DJ. I think there is. UM,
I think there's gonna be a big edge in going
overweight on those guys if those feelings, you know, turn
(23:15):
out to be accurate, because the way I'm kind of
looking at it right now, is it just seems like
a Stars and Scrubs build is gonna be more appealing
as like the core of the way I structure things
for m M E. Yeah, I do think the Stars
and Scrubs it ends up like hitting opted builds for
me because of how I handle projected caps as far
(23:37):
as like the total cumulative roster present for players, and
so I think you get a lot of low owned punts,
and you obviously don't get a ton of low owned
balanced players. And so even if Bryson is popular like
Bryson and a punt is gonna be less cumulative then
two mid price guys and so um, that's one of
(23:57):
the reasons and optics I end up going starts and
scrubs more than like my gut says. Like my gut says,
it should feel like a balanced week where if one
of the top end guys doesn't win, they're not going
to hit the optimal. But when when like reality kicks in,
I usually end up rostering the topping players more than
I expect to. Yeah, um, so down in the eight
K range song J and Sergio for sure, um not
(24:20):
probably off read definitely not playing Smitet, definitely not playing speed. Uh,
probably won't play Fee now. I I have a feeling
the optimizer is gonna want me to play Fitzpatrick. I'll
probably trim it back a little bit on him this week.
Probably not super interested in Leishman either. So eight k
range really looks like, you know, Sung j and Woodland
(24:41):
are are the really optimal plays there. Yeah, I mean
to be honest, Sunjay it feels like he's setting up
in the same light as Webs and s Yeah. Mr Cut.
His his putter was egregious, like one one of the
worst two putting performances of his career, with the number
of strokes that he us even just through two rounds.
(25:01):
His ball stranging was good. It was not exceptional, wasn't
necessarily at Sunjay levels, but it was solid and he
was gaining strokes, so it's not like that was gone.
And then well, I don't know if you were watching
Saturday morning, but sun Sun shows up at the range, Mrs.
The Cut still shows up at the range the next day,
just always. I mean, what else is he gonna do?
What I mean, what else is Sonjay gonna do on
a Saturday. It's not like he's gonna, you know, go
(25:23):
out in Charleston and go hang out, you know, like
that dude. That dude is there to grind golf. That's
what some exists for. Yeah. So yeah, I mean, I'm
going back to Sunjay this week. The values there is
too good. He'll probably I mean, if I had to
call it now, he'll be And I think he's the
candidate to get kind of picked up this week. Uh.
(25:44):
Speech is not really good or not. You know, Spee's
not gonna pop in many models because his course history
is not elite here, um, and then Sergio is just
like it was a great ceiling performance from him last week,
but he hasn't been exceptional in the past like three months,
So I don't think he's inna popatime either. Probably boost
him a little bit just because his ball striking has
been so good through the first two events, but I
(26:06):
don't think he's gonna be a core play. I still
prefer song Jay out of all the other players in
this range. Um, And I guess I'm a little bit
more interested in fee now than you are. Yeah, um, Art,
So we're gonna go ahead and head into our break
here on the daily road to hour on sports Crade TV.
When we get back, we will dig into some of
the puntier guys on DraftKings and Fan Duel, and we
(26:27):
will also take a look at the betting markets as well.
Sports grid dot Com Betting Insights and entertainment at your
fingertips seven as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back from
(26:54):
break Here on the Daily Road to Hour on sports
Cred TV, we are breaking down daily fan of golf
at the Travelers Championship at the TBC Highlands, getting down
into some of the value sort of range. Uh Joaking
Neeman with quite the performance last week, um ends up
T five at the RBC Heritage. But uh that that
(27:17):
tea green game last week? He was he was on
the answer level of just felt like he was never
going to miss a green in regulation. Oh yeah, I
mean he was. He was dialed and it was three
of the four rounds too. It's like his bad round
was still neutral t to green, but three or four
rounds were elite including I think the top top three
(27:39):
and the round three and then like a top ten
finish on Sunday as far as strokes gain t green,
So he was getting tons of opportunities. Obviously with that
strong finish, he's seen a price hike, but uh, a
DFS favorite a guy that should still hit ownership in
this kind of range that offers a lot of you know,
appeal to balanced and top and range. Dude, someone's gonna
(27:59):
tell Gary Woodland he's got to take the driver out
of the bag. The guy's giving. He's watching, he's watching
everyone else do it. That's so funny because we were,
like I was talking on the show last week of like,
you know, Woodland on the lesson driver courses and then
Bryson shows up and it's just smashing driver off the
tea and Jts hitting driver off the tea and then
Woodlands there with his uh you know, his fore iron
(28:20):
looking like decrepit old man. It's like Woodland, wharre You
just pick your head up, dude, Look what everyone else
is doing. Hit the driver. He's given like up two
strokes around to like Bryson basically just off the tea.
So yeah, you can hit area. I know you can
hit the driver fire just taking out of the bag. Um, okay,
Hoveland couldn't could not be more And I think Hoveland
(28:40):
very similar to NeiMa. Just gonna gain so many strokes
t to Green like you will win this year. Yeah,
I feel good about holind In that in that price range,
I mean, um, the type of guy you would expect
to be aggressive, the type guy you would expect to
generate Bertie looks and pretty reasonable price fits fits stars
and shrubs bills as like a second or a guy.
If it's balanced builds, it's like a third or fourth guy.
(29:02):
So those are those are good names. I don't know
if the ownership will follow, um, I feel like it
probably will, but those are the names that jumped out
to me. Scottie Scheffler if he plays this week. I
thought he was in the field to start but not
play last week. Do we know why he withdrew? No,
we don't know. Um, So obviously there's question marks there
as far as it will show up this week. There's
(29:22):
like COVID question marks, which is gonna happen anytime someone
would draws from an event. But he was local to
to Dallas, so as possible, he just like stayed home
after the Colonial week, didn't want to travel or something.
But you would expect the guy like that, who's younger,
who hasn't made like fifteen million dollars a hundred million dollars,
you'd expect him to be grinding a little bit. So
I don't know, it'll be interesting. Maybe we'll see some news. Um.
(29:44):
Those are the guys that jumped out at the top.
I feel like, I mean, I feel like they're gonna
be consensus picks. But that's where I'm at right now,
early in the week. I mean, I'm cool. I'm cool
with the you know, Hoveland and Scheffler being my consensus. Like,
I don't care if that's chalk. I'm jamming him anyways.
Like I dare the field to try and match my
ownership on those dudes. Like, go ahead and ahead and
(30:05):
do that. Everyone. I'd like to see you try. Another guy,
Joel Damon just keeps our boy. He just keeps gaining strokes.
I mean, he uh, not not as great on, not
as great on Sunday this last week at the RBC
at the RBC where he fires the but tweet no gino.
(30:25):
He his caddy is really funny. Yeah, so they had
like the rain Delaide. Damon was plus two through four
holes and like he tweeted something out and his caddy
went on Twitter and like basically made fun of the
inmon for hacking it around the middle of around still
like fourteen holes left to get into contention, just getting
trolled by your caddy. Yeah, he has fun. He has
(30:49):
fun on the course. Um, guys, I can say I'm
not playing Kevin Kissner not playing him. Uh, Jason Day
not playing him. Uh, Brian Palmer probably not playing him.
I reserved, I reserved the right to change my mind
on that. Co crack though co Crack, He's getting in
the player pool for sure. Yeah. Um, it's like two weeks.
(31:10):
I've made these like fancy five percent owned players on
like Jason Days of the World, and obviously it's not
gonna come through all the time. It came through a Sergio,
but it has not come through the day yet. I'm
starting to lose my patients with five percent on Jason Day.
Probably be off this week. Corey Connors I like quite
a bit at the same exact price, he'd beat the
heat the Green game, so good. Yeah, it's been good,
(31:33):
and you know those he's one of those guys grinding
for a paycheck. So um, I like that angle quite
a bit. I like co Crack. I guess that like
Bryan Palmer a little bit more than you do. And
I kind of regretted, like instant regretted not playing him
a bunch last week because he was chalk at Colonial,
because of course history goes to a course that sets
up exactly like Colonial, and then he's like two percent
(31:54):
owned and he has much better finish. The underlying metrics
were good. He definitely ran a little bit hot with
the putter, but the ball striking was good too. So um,
there's not a lot of great plays down in this
below range, and Ryan Palmer stands out as one of
the okay players that they can get on board with.
I think there, I think there's some really good plays
down here, and these guys are guys that have just
been getting dusted by, Like I can't go back to
(32:16):
the well in Seneker with a high degree of confidence ousty,
no confidence in that, you know, don't don't play those guys,
but play play the dudes. Play the dudes down here
who are just terrible at putting. But do the others
like like, uh, I mean you know for Telly, right,
why why are you? Why are we not jamming in
for Telly this week? Yeah? So for Telly he was
(32:37):
was he the did he end up the low round
on Sunday? Or was it he was like second or third?
I guess it might have been shot at sixty two
Sunday at RBC. Yeah, I think he was the top
t Green performance too. Um and yeah, I mean he
is in the range where he'd be like a sprinkle
for me, a post o core building block. I guess. Um,
I don't know if the ownership will be there or not.
He obviously ran hot with the puddy last week, but
(32:58):
the ball striking was good too. Um. I don't gotta
run hot with the putter though. So so my two guys, Yeah,
I think you're gonna like one of them, and I
think you're gonna think the other guys a dust bucket.
You want me to lead off with the dust bucket
and the guy that you're like first? Alright, Lucas Glover
seven thous No, no, dude, I love Lucas Glover. So,
(33:21):
I mean Glover has been he's been consistent coming out
of the break. That's something. Now we have a couple
of rounds, something I'm looking for and a value play especially,
and I think he gets it done kind of in
all aspects of the game. Putter can be hit or
missed sometimes for him, but I think he's like average ish,
so not egregious, not a topping guy. And then they
I think you're gonna be on board with that. I
(33:41):
like a lot this week who I think can play
pretty aggressive. It's got some of those liberal politics on Twitter.
I know you're all about that. So Maxima, I think
it's really good value play this week too. Could could
not be more wrong. I never play Maxima and I
always play Lucas Glover. Well this is this is a
good week for Maxima. One of the few guys that
you can find down here who has sort of elite
(34:02):
off the team play and can gain strokes on approach
and was really strong at RBC Heritage just was was
off the game with the putters. So I'm into max
Homa this week. His official World Golf Ranking page just um,
it's uh, it doesn't make it move for me, like
I just think of I just think of home as
such a dusty bucket style player basically. Yeah, um, just
(34:28):
not really for me, Kevin Nah, I guess would be interesting.
I don't know why he showed up for the first
event and didn't play this week. Kind of falls into
the same boat as Cheffler. Sore back is um what
he said, Yeah, and he hadn't been practicing very much,
So I mean, I Kevin not an informed can not
(34:48):
be interested in that. I guess that concerns me a
tiny bit. So maybe not a core play, but we're
we're going to have to tease through some of these
guys because like the COVID stuff. I mean, you saw Watney,
he had been tested before the event, and then he
test positive on Friday with the symptoms and the instant tests,
and so I mean you're gonna see some of that stuff,
and some of the guys that have been out, you're
(35:08):
gonna wonder about them coming back with Like Wantney, the
guys who he had played with tested negative. The guys
who had played on groups either side of him had
tested negative as well. But that doesn't mean that there
wasn't like some exposure and something that a test could
pop up in the future. It's probably a level too
deep for me to like knock guys who played with
Nick Watney, but it's it's at least like on my
mind as we're talking about this week. Yeah, I disagree
(35:31):
with you that there aren't more guys down here um
to play it though, Uh, like Bud Collie, I'm in
what about what about noted data golf boy Carlos Ortiz
at at six hundred, he fired a sixty three on Saturday. Now,
granted he followed that up with a seventy three on Sunday,
(35:53):
but that Carlos Ortiz is like, uh, he's he he
just is uh instead of being from Chili, he is
he's like he. He and Neeman have such a similar
game basically of of just Ta Green and when they
make I mean, he made nineteen birdies last week, Carlo
Sortiz did Like that's nineteen berties and two eagles. That's
crazy game, Like four and a half strokes putting, He
(36:16):
lost strokes. T Green wasn't hit the ball very well.
Maybe a lot of that was the Sunday rounds and
obviously a lot of pressure in that round. He's not
used to being in that position. But look, I like
Carlos Ortiz enough, Like I like him as much as
the next guy. But saying like conviction plays or guys
where you're in like a single entry and you're like, oh,
I feel good about this guy being like the last time,
(36:38):
Like I would play Carlo sorties and single entry three max. Yeah,
and I think I would stop at like Glover probably
That's where I'm at. No, don't gamble, no future calling.
I mean, okay, are we have even better plays down here? Though?
Matthew Matthew Wolf sixty, I mean, yeah, Phil, Phil at
a course where how bad is Phil? Then? Yeah, I
(36:59):
mean he's been really bad. But if you if you
wanted to use a narrative on Phil, there's a pretty
obvious one, which is, uh, Bubba crushes here and at Augusta,
both of which are courses that like theoretically should maybe
favor left handed golfers, right because that that's that's always
been the narrative for those two, is that at courses
that are built to stop right handed golfers, those guys
(37:19):
should have an edge. Yeah, And I think like, yeah,
Bubba is always like the sight lines, like the sight
lines and sight lines. He's all about the sight lines,
and he likes to move the ball. I mean, the
dude sees like a straight tree lined fairway and he
still tries to figure out a way to hit a
cut like up over the trees and back in to
the fairway. So I mean that's Bubba fill is obviously
(37:40):
a little bit different. But you know, Phil is gonna
be aggressive right like, And that's that's one of the
things you have to love about it at six d
um and the fact that, like you said, there are
a lot of players in this field. I know that
there's no chance Bill it's gonna pop in the projections,
but um, he's probably a guy outlanded to play on that,
like you know, like three percent. Because how mad are
you when Phil is three on Sunday and you're like, well,
(38:01):
I'd have got no part of that hit me and
he'll never be t three Sunday. But how pissed are
you when he like opens up with like four birdies
and seven holes and he's first round leader and then
like he totally abjects with like a triple. But it's like,
just for that moment of life that Phil can bring,
I'll be on you are you're you are mad for
just those few seconds of being like, well could have
(38:23):
had could add all that Phil, And uh, you know
I don't have any but a couple of the other
Chief Jam Champ, are you and you on Cam Champ? No,
Cam Champ. Uh, this is the range where I started
thinking of, you know, Russell Knox, our boy, our boy
Doc Redman last week fired sixty six, sixty five, sixty
seven on Friday, Saturday Sunday. A pretty good round from him.
(38:45):
Johnny Vegas another dude down there that, uh, I think
you can play Bryce Garnett, a guy who I I
literally think I play Bryce Garnett more than like Bryce
Garnett's parents would if they were playing on Draft Kings.
And uh, you know he's a he's a pretty decent
cutmaker on tour. A couple of these other guys are interesting.
But we are going to go ahead and head into
(39:06):
break here on the Daily Road to Hour on Sports
Grade TV. When we get back, we're going to take
a look at the betting markets one and done, and
maybe go through a few more of our cheap punt
plays here sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
(39:27):
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks and more want the edge than get on
the grid sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome
back from break Here on the daily Road to Hour
on Sports Grade TV. I'm David's Mattock, joined by Colin
Drew finalizing our punt discussion here. You know, we we
(39:50):
wouldn't be doing our job as golf touts if we
didn't mention the dude who won the Outlaw Tour event,
who is the number one amateur golfer in the world.
See Heath the gala Um playing in this event. Not
exactly sure how he qualified, not exactly sure, but exempture
or whatever. It's a fun little wrinkle slapp. He's gonna
love him this week. Have to imagine he's not gonna
look very good in the daily role optimizer. I gotta
(40:12):
say zero percent play for me. Maybe I'll play him
in showdown where I tend to build more, do more
hand building. Maybe I'll get my exposure there. Yeah, yeah,
he should like at sixty two his first round as
a pro pepper iron player went pro, played out lot
to our event, little tune up and then he's in
the field this week. So um, he's extremely cheap and
he would definitely fit the stars and scrubs build, and
(40:34):
I think it's a guy that I'm I'm curious to
see where Data Golf has him as far as their
World Golf rankings for amateurs, because they do a lot
more stuff with that now than they used to, and
so I think they'll have more data on him, and
I think maybe he'll be better than like a zero
in the projection system. So I'm kind of kind of curious,
and I definitely think he's a player that I'll get
talked a little bit about this week. Probably seem like
(40:54):
he's gonna be chalk, but then when it comes down
to it, I think he'll he'll be no more than
five percent, So um type of player. I'll probab take
a little bit of a stab. On the other thing,
I think it's really interesting this week. So Matthew Wolf
is priced down below seven thousand dollars in draftkicks. There
was a time last summer where people were legitimately, they
were legitimately arguing about whether or not Hoblin, Morrikaba or
Wolf was a better professional. Now there's a massive disconnect
(41:17):
between the prices for those three guys Um, and so
I think that's pretty interesting as well. And Wolf the
type of guy that can definitely go low whether you're
talking about Showdown or main slate. Um, so I think
not super bullish on mainslate Wolf, I'm thinking I'm interested, um,
but not like a lock button, but showdown for sure. Yeah,
(41:37):
I'm a man. I don't know, Like, if we're gonna
we're gonna talk about it's if we're gonna talk about
T de Green T two Green games. I mean, who
better than Matthew Wolf at are we gonna find in
terms of t de Green? Like that dude strokes it? Yeah?
So I mean it's tough, man, it's tough letting down
here there a guy like everybody down here has either
(41:58):
had poor performs the three stently, which is why they're
cheap there, or they're they're guys that I've played at
low ownership in recent weeks. They missed the cut, which
is why they're cheap and I have to go back
to them. Or you play like these young you know
young guys web upside, I haven't done a lot in
their career and they're pretty volatile, so you can you
can make a pretty good mix of of guys this week.
I mean Vegas Garnett, Uh, those dudes there. But then
(42:21):
also like Wyndham Clark, you know, like Wyndham Clark is
uh the the the like driving and putting like that's
what he does and then everything else is terrible. But
like you know, if that if you get hot doing
those two things for four days or even two rounds,
really right, you know, you post two seventies and then
you post a sixty three and a sixty four, like
that's going to be more than especially on in terms
(42:43):
of DFS scoring, I would say, like Doc Redman, I
don't think I played them very much. Maybe a little
bit in round four showdown, but um, like his it
wasn't like a fluke is performances off, the team play
was great. He's game strokes on approach both of the events,
and he's come back. Not the best short game player
in the world, um, but six Like I feel like
the underlying metrics have been there for him too. So
(43:03):
not the worst play as far as a value play, yeah, uh.
And then you know I have to give I have
to give my uh my honorary mentioned to Adam Shank
uh is Adam shank is five hundred to one on
the FanDuel sports book. I mean, come on, how are
we not betting that? Right? Yeah, It's it's so interesting
(43:25):
with these events because it's they've been the type of
events that you feel like a five one player could
actually contend and win, but then they've ended up with
like stacked, like really sexy leaderboards with top end places. Yeah,
so Morikwall probably went off, I would guess on the
Vandal sports book. I don't remember probably thirty three to
(43:45):
one where him in the playoff. Yeah, I think he
was like a little bit less than forty. Um, so
it feels like a ringo guy could break through. I
mean you saw guys get close, right, You saw like
the Michael Thompson rounds and um you suffer Telly and
stuff like that. Guys get close, not just not quite enough.
So yeah, maybe it is the week that one of
these guys is able to shoot low enough, because like
you said, it does feel like is going to be
(44:07):
the requirement for the winning score again. So looking at
the top of the betting markets here, I I actually, um,
I think this is so interesting because what we're seeing
happen is because the leaderboards have been so tight, Rory's
number has actually been cut in a half each of
the last two weeks. He went from um at colonial.
The first week he was seven to one, and now
(44:30):
he is eleven and one, tied to the top of
the market with j T. And I mean part of
that is he's had these I think he I think
his last two Sundays he's gone uh so you know
that's not going to make people rush to their betting
windows to to go wager on him. But I mean,
I think there's a very good argument to just be like,
(44:51):
I'm betting this like a football game. I'm betting. I'm
betting three units on Rory eleven to one, and that's
my golf betting for the week. Like I think they're
is a legitimate case to be made for that. So
see you perform prefer Rory at this price to Bryson. Yeah,
I mean, look, I love Bryson. Bryson is the best.
Trying to hear you're you're still a Rory guy. Yeah,
(45:13):
I mean, look, Rory is the best golfer in the world.
I just think that is that is objectively true. Um
maybe on maybe on Sundays he's like the third best
golfer in the world instead of the best, but yeah,
he's still better than Bryson. I think yeah, I mean,
I think you're right. As far as the reason that
Rory's odds have been slashed, it's also like the ascension
of Kepca. He's been like priced up off of like
(45:35):
the rebound there, like Simpson's been pressing up. Bryson obviously
has been priced up, and then like DJ Rose, so
you're getting some like old school form guys priced up
and that's also impacting Rory. Um, I would prefer to
play rom One over Rory. I think one of the
best off the tea players in the world, obviously really
good an approach as well, can go super low, and
(45:56):
the Teter Green game has been there through his first
two events. Putter didn't collick the first one when he
missed the cut. But um, I'm comfortable playing Ron this
week and hoping that, you know, third event in a
row he can kind of get it together. You can
you can bet court like half unit on rom at
T one and like also be betting other guys. I
think if you are in this event, if you are
(46:17):
betting j T or Rory and not in live betting,
but doing it before it begins, I think you just
got to be like that's my bet for the week
or or I mean, obviously you can do you know,
quarter unit bets on guys who are are super deep.
But like I, I wouldn't be betting like I wouldn't
be going into this week betting Rory and then also
betting you know a handful of guys in the forties. Like,
(46:39):
I think that's probably bad. So are you going to
spend on Well, it sounds like you would only bet
Rory if you're gonna bet a toyping guy, so um
for me, the top of guy would be rom. It
sounds like you're gonna bet Rory and are you gonna
bet anybody else? Up? I I have I have placed
my wagers for this week and the highest guy that
I have bet as of now is Sergio at uh
(47:04):
to one and he and he moved to forty two
to one. But I I prefer, I think I I
this week. I think it's a little bit better to
get uh Sergio, you know, to kind of take your
pick up like Hogland, Connors, Damon, you know whoever at
co Crack you know someone in there that you like,
and then I think there are I mean when we
(47:25):
were talking about the punts, like I think their dudes
deeper than a hundred one who can legitimately win this week. Yeah, yeah,
I think for the mid price guys, I think some
j m at one is probably one of the guys
setting up the web parallel that it's just setting it
up almost the same price too that you're getting. So
I think some of day is a good value. You're
not really getting a discount on him. But I prefer
(47:45):
like Hotland has been priced up Holands so on. On
fan Duel he's at forty. There are other numbers out
there where you can get him at like sixty five
six to seventy, and I would, Um, you know, if
you have that number available to you, I would, I
would use it. Yeah. So um been on at a
hundred thirty two one, I think would be one of
the longer shots. That seems like he's he's Benny. If
(48:09):
you're listening, buddy, I'm I'm sorry. I really I love you.
Um You've done a lot of good for me, But
I I can't. I can't with him right now, like
we we just have to be done with him, right,
I mean, you get you gotta like monitor your exposure
in dfs. But when like gatting strokes t to green
right now, yeah, I mean when a tailbox putter tilts
(48:29):
it off putting, I mean it kind of is what
it is. It comes with the territory, Like the reason
you're you're getting a cheap price on him. But um,
if he's if he's in the field this week, huntred
thirty one, I think it's an okay price. See him
up there on the odds market, but don't have that confirmed.
I see I see Redman and Glover at a hundred
and thirty two one. Um, I think both of those
are equitable prices. Like maybe you'd rather maybe you'd rather
(48:51):
bet them in Ta tan or T twenty markets or whatever. Um,
but like where's the fun in that? Like why why
are we trying why are we trying to grind out?
You know, like why are we trying to grind out
like two units at a time? Like yeah, so, I
mean it's it's Monday when we're recording this. Most of
the books have outright prices out there. They don't get
the T twenties out there until later in the week.
I think they take some of their actions sharpen up
(49:12):
their prices and then send out the T twenties and
most of the guys that I bet outright, I'll end
up adding to T twenty once those markets are at
as well, just because I'm a nit David. So I
granted T twenties a little bit um, well, I would
grind T twenties more had I not been having a
really good year of betting on out right smashing out
(49:33):
rights every week. Yeah, so like I actually, I mean
I even know this to be true. In eighteen I was,
or twenty nineteen, I was betting T twenties every week
because I literally I hit one winner in twenty nineteen,
Ricky Fowler at the Waste Management, and that was it.
And then it was just like, what's the point. But
I have plenty of you know, I have plenty of
golf betting funds I've set aside from running hot. So
(49:58):
I'm not I'm not touting T twenties here. We're tout
Doc Redman hundred one and go and get it. You know.
So you got any super deep plays for the boys, Yeah,
I mean I think you have to bet wolf at
a hundred and fifty two one or deeper. Uh, And
then this is the the Keith Mitchell corollary when he
won the Honda class to get two d and fifty one.
(50:20):
Can you like, I don't know if I would ever
recover from Adam Shank winning a PGA bet at five
one and not having invested in that, Like, I'd be
so miserable. So I I am invested there as well. Yeah,
I think the other price that kind of caught my
eyes a little bit was Aaron Wise at as far
as like a sprinkle long shot definitely okay, not sprinkling
(50:42):
that one low dollar bet, but he was the other
price that jumped outs me. Um, okay, we have we
have one and done to get to as well. I
don't think there's an easy answer this week. I think
Paul Casey, Bubba Watson are gonna be super owned. Um
I'm thinking about is taking Abraham answer because I probably
(51:03):
I won't bet him and I won't have much of
him in DFS if at all, So I'll just I
can just get some exposure to a guy I think
is good and can win there. Yeah, we talked. We
talked about this a bit every week. I think a
couple events and you kind of need to have your
segment strategy figured out by this point, if you picked
up a winner through the first two, then I think
(51:24):
you can go towards the top end of the board
and play some of these favorites. Um Or, play like
a chocky player that's a good value, like a Bubba
Watson guy that will be popular this week. You might
not really want to use them other weeks. On tour,
you definitely know it's one of the best places to
use them on. But obviously, if you haven't picked up winners,
you're gonna need to make up grounds. And to make
up ground, you obviously can't just play the picks that
everybody else is playing. Uh. You want to save up
(51:45):
the top end players for other segments, and so I
would avoid the top of the board, and you'll also
want to avoid the super consensus picks like Bubba Watson,
like Patrick can't Lay. Possibly, So I think in oh
can't Lay is a good one. Yeah, he will be
He will be pretty popular. So I mean I think
in that type of environment, yeah, you're you're going to
like an Abraham Answer who's probably never going to have
(52:06):
like higher form rating than he does right now. Um
Or you're going to like like a Tony Fee now
type kind of sticking within the top forty framework as
far as overall visual world golf rankings, but um, trying
to get someone who's a little bit less popular. All right, everyone,
thank you very much for listening and watching to the
(52:28):
Daily Road to Hour. We are done here. Hope hope
Abraham answer wins this week. If Patrick Hanley doesn't, we'll
be back and we'll see all you guys soon. Sports
grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more.
(52:48):
Want the edge than get on the grid. Sports grid
dot com
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:21):
and welcome to the Daily road To Hour here on
sports Create TV. This is also gonna double as the
Daily Rodo going for the Green Daily Fantasy Golf Podcast.
I'm Davis Maddock, joined by Colin Drew coming off of
you know, I guess it was a dramatic Sunday Colin,
but I was not particularly interested in the outcome because
any time a fifty percent owned golfer literally you think
(00:45):
I'm making that up. Web Simpson on FanDuel and DraftKings
was owned in some contest legitimately over fifty went off
on the fandubal Sports book at to one wins. Uh
last week at Harbor Town and uh, you know, just disgusting,
just truly disgusting to me, Davis. I mean, he was
(01:05):
the top value in the Daily Redder projections, So you
can't be hating on the performance. What's the point, like
literally called, what is the point of playing daily fantasy golf? If,
like any any given week where the highest stone golfer wins,
I can guarantee it will not be a profitable week
for me. Just get I can straight up guarantee it.
Oh yeah, I mean I flushed plenty of money down
the toilet this week. All formats got closed in a
(01:27):
couple of shotdowns. But like you said, I mean I
do think obviously Web Simpson was a great value. It
shows a little bit how the DFS landscape has changed
because he was coming off of that miscut, and historically
that would be something that reduces ownership. Instead it drops
his price. Ownership is still there even higher, and he
went off as the high zone player wins the event.
You basically had to have the nuts last week to
(01:48):
win because of that, and there's always kind of a balance.
But and talk about whether or not you should play
guys when they're the highest zone player or not. Obviously
you couldn't cash without Web, but there were plenty of
people who couldn't cash with Web, and of years truly, Yeah,
because I mean, if so if we just if we
go back and look at Harbor Town a little bit here,
there were a lot of cheap guys who did well.
(02:10):
You know, Abraham Answer did very well. He was, you know,
pretty inexpensive. Our boy Sergio Garcia that we touted last
week minus nineteen, Um Dylan for Telly was actually priced
up a little bit. J. T. Poston, Michael Thompson, Um,
Ian Poulter, Harris English like the like the leaderboard which
fel Hannan too was yea, like he was super popular.
(02:31):
He's probably the most popular value play kind of in
that a K range, one of the top two or
three at least. Yeah, So that was the guy that
I did the leverage fade on this last week of
just being this dude's fifteen percent owned. Um, he's Ian Poulter.
I hate him anyways, So you know, like what's the use? Like,
I just don't know. I'm just not gonna wanna not
gonna play this guy. I was pretty bummed because, like Sergio,
(02:54):
we talked about it here and I was like, I
don't ever lock guys, but if I was gonna lock anybody,
I would lock Sergio this week. His ball striking the
week before had been among the best in the field
through two rounds, but he missed the cut because of
his putter, and the ball striking was then there again
this week, again among the best in the field. Putter
still wasn't great, but it clicked a little bit better
and obviously the top five finish at that price tag
(03:15):
was what you're looking for, um, And I think generally
like that was one of the calls I got right,
but I didn't play aggressive enough and I ended up
kind of scattering on some other guys like Snedeker miscut
hurt me quite a bit, had Decky miscut hurt me
a lot, and sung Jay miscut hurt me quite a
bit as well. So there was still some carnage out
there despite seemingly a really good leaderboard by the end
(03:37):
of the day, well, I mean the obvious carnage for me.
Longtime listeners of the show are gonna know that, you know,
when Rory McElroy goes out and uh, you know, ends
up T. Fifty four by the end of Sunday, there's
just not gonna be a realistic path for ah for
me to make money because it basically any of my
good lineups were you know, to have rower in them,
(04:00):
and uh so you know, just not not really great.
I I do want to, I do really want to
make this point though there are no more, you only
take short hitter golf courses. Like I think at this
point after watching um Harbor Town and what was the
golf course we played the first week back Colonial Colonial
golf course. UM, like the the reason that these short
(04:23):
bunters have wanted these courses in the past was just
because Rory and Bryson and Dustin weren't playing them. Like
like I just I just watched Abraham answer and and
Victor Hovlin's just like own Harbor Town golf course for
four days. I just like I no longer believe in
this um tricky instead of long golf course stuff. Well,
the wind conditions were also dead both days, and so
(04:47):
like pins you historically saw playing as tough Sunday pins,
guys were just firing at them like not scared of anything.
So you have the talent changes things for sure, and
we see that with the travelers this week. UH field
that maybe five ten years ago was really weak has
become one of the strongest in golf. And obviously this
year with the COVID stuff going on, it's gonna be
even stronger. Um. The other thing that was kind of
(05:08):
crazy is just like the minus six minus eight rounds
that are out there, guys shooting up the leaderboard and
so it was hard to like really know where you stood.
And like you can see guys making like fourteen stroke
charges over the weekend and that's definitely not something that
we're used to seeing. Yeah, um, which is uh, I
(05:29):
mean I I prefer golf to be that way. Like
I don't do not ever sign me up for a
US Open, uh minus three winner. I'm not. I'm not
interested in that in any way, shape or form. Like
I would much rather um, you know, be taking Matthew
Wolf at Steve Stricker at hundred. Like I just that's
just the type of golf I would weigh rather watch. Yeah. Yeah.
(05:50):
The other ironic thing with like Web, like the chock
getting there on like strokes game putting of all things,
was just that's just how they drove up. I mean,
that's how that's how Web does it. That like half
his strokes with the putter. Yeah. I think someone in
our slack chat, I'm I'm not exactly sure on this,
but I believe it was reported that Sergio gained eleven
(06:11):
more strokes T degree than Web, which sounds outrageous, but
also Sergio was that good. T de Green. Yeah, it's
like it was like too almost two strokes. I think
that might be a little bit high, but I think
it's like almost two strokes um around an average, so
pretty aggressive. Yes, Sergio was awesome. It'll be pretty interesting.
He got like the instant price hike, and that's something
(06:33):
that we're looking at this week. There were other guys
who kind of had big comebacks last week. Brooks Kepco
looked like he was showing kind of some old form.
Dustin Johnson played a little bit better after he'd kind
of been dust j for a while. Not not elite,
but played better, and Kepta got an instant price hike.
Sergio got an instant price hike, and so you're kind
of seeing some quick reaction in the betting markets and
(06:54):
therefore in the draft Kings and Vanduel prices for dfs
as well. Yeah, yeah, yeah, for for sure. I mean,
I I think that chasing the Sergio price hike is
something I'm likely to do this week because he was
just so good. TV Green at Harper Town. But We're
moving on now to the Travelers Championship. I believe it's
at the TPC Highlands. Is the name of the golf course. Um,
(07:19):
very short golf course. It's like just from from where
the pros are playing. It will be just over hundred yards.
This is UM famously on tour, the Bubba Watson golf Course.
He's one here three different times, which is um. I
mean that that is just incredible to have won a
golf tournament three different times at the same course like
that is UM. I don't know, it's very crazy stuff
(07:41):
and it's why Bubba is like one on the FanDuel
Sports book this week. I mean, just first of all,
do we want to get out of the way. Do
you want to tell Bubba? And I mean, you know,
I don't tell Bubba the I mean it's just an
easy pass for from a betting perspective, just can't be
paying that kind of price for Bubba. It does become
harder for dfs obviously, just because his style play is
(08:04):
conducive to DK scoring scoring. Yeah yeah, and these courses
like that we've seen the first two courses coming off
of the restart have been giving up lots of scoring
a Bubba's track record here, I think his his price
is in a place where he doesn't have to win necessarily.
He could top twenty and put up like a couple
of streaks here and there and probably be pretty good.
(08:25):
UM of course is one of the shortest courses on
tour and as far as part just a distance that
they'll play. Ever, so um the distance doesn't matter from
that perspective. But if you look at like the course fit,
it actually had a little bit more predicted power than
UM Harbor Town did in a little bit more than
the Colonial Country Club. And so I think even though
(08:47):
it is short, it's a course where historically longer players
have still been able to utilize that UM and so
especially with what we've seen up the last two weeks, Yeah,
short guys can win, but the top end players who
are long or just his live I mean, like maybe
maybe more than anything, the move in both betting markets
(09:07):
and in dfs is just to target like more aggressive players,
like players you know who will be hunting pins, you
know who are who will try like exactly like Bubba. Right,
Bubba is a tilt box and if he has the
ability to make some miraculous uh draw shot around a
tree and land at four ft from the pin. He'll
(09:28):
try and make it as opposed to like just laying
up right and and you know that's uh and because
I think is like kind of like the new normal
for these PGA Tour events. Now, we're like, if you're
not getting to twenty, you're probably not drawing live. Yeah,
I mean, it definitely seems like that will be the case. Um,
And it's the case the last couple of weeks. Seems
like it will probably be the case this week, even
(09:49):
though it's only Partsmity a lot of times, like the
easier course is relative to part usually the Parsonity two
tracks because you get the part five is mixed in there,
but it does seem like you're having to get there,
which is which is pretty crazy. Um. Also adds a
little bit of variance in there because you just have
to get hot with the putter, like you there's no
question about it. I mean, you can ball strike your
way to a solid finish minus ten or so, but
(10:11):
you have to get hot with the putter if you
want to win a part. Yeah. I mean, I do
love the the idea that like, you know, all these
people who are you know, wanting NBA back, wanting baseball back.
You know, they're they're sitting here, they're playing golf dfs,
maybe maybe for the first time or or seriously paying
(10:32):
attention to it, and they're they're hearing on all these
podcasts and and all these videos and everything like oh,
you know, like you gotta have the hot putter, but like,
don't look at stroke scan putting, and then go watch
the event. And and last week, right, so two weekends ago,
they see Maria Calla miss the short ones. They see
Bryson missed the short ones. Um, they see you know,
(10:52):
they're in the playoff, right, morrikwa misses the five ft
or two to hand it over to Burger. And then
this week they see Webb just run a a just
knocking in after twenty football and they're like, you know
what I'm getting on PGA tour and I'm strong, and
I'm sorting by strokes game putting and just playing all
those dudes. If everyone's gonna be hitting these greens, then
(11:12):
maybe that's the move. I mean, look that I mean
because of because of all these things we're talking about it,
like these courses just don't seem hard enough to test
PGA golfers at that level anymore, like putting wizards like
Denny McCarthy and Michael tom I mean, Michael Thompson was
legit like there on on Sunday afternoon. Yeah, I mean yeah,
(11:33):
he was never like really there, but he was there
for sure. And I think especially you know, at Daily Rhado,
one of the things that's easy for us is the
Showdown because we have showed down projections up for every slate,
and so that's something a lot of providers don't offer.
And the contests are huge now, and so you do
need to consider guys like that for the Showdown contest
because a lot of these players are capable of shooting
(11:53):
minus a on the course setups that we've seen, and
you have to get pretty deep in the player pool.
You want to capture one of those guys that like
one percent ownership UM. This week, the fields loaded again
the top of the field on Fandel Sports Book. From
an odds perspective, you've got Rory, JT. Bryson essentially identical.
Rory eleven to one j T and Bryson at twelve
to one UM. But those have kind of emerged as
(12:15):
like the clear three favorites in the betting markets, followed
by kind of a second tier which includes rom Webb
Simpson up at his win and then Brooks kept getting
a big price increase, so it's a star suddin Field,
Patrick Cantley at one want to return the new names
back and then Paul Casey has done really well here too,
a couple of top fives in the past five years.
(12:37):
He's playing in his first event back. I got torched
last week by guys playing in their first event back.
Padeki gone, Snedeker gone, and um, I'm I'm not sure
what to do with it, but I feel like I'm
going to knock those guys a little bit, just because
maybe that's a bias on my part, but it seemed
like there was a little bit of rust. All Right,
(12:58):
We're gonna go ahead and head into break here on
the daily Road to hour on sports Gride TV. When
we return, we will head into the DFS analysis per
price range and breakdown one of the strongest fields that
this event will pretty much ever. See sports grid dot
(13:18):
com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds predictive betting models, expert picks, and more want
the edge than get on the grid sports grid dot Com. Yeah,
(13:40):
hello everyone, and welcome back from break Here on the
daily Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Maddock,
joined by Colin Drew breaking down these guys by price range. Um.
You know, here at the top we have Rory And
did you ever think you would see eleven K Bryson
Deshambo at a full strength event? Drew b I have
(14:01):
to say, of course I did. I knew Bryson was,
but I'm not sure everyone else knew. I mean, it's
not it's shocking to me that it happened this early,
and that like the ascent has happened that fast. Obviously
not shocking for him to ever get there and one
of the most highly kind of pedigreed prospects I was
out there, so um, but it was it was a
fast ascent right like he had like some peaks early
(14:22):
in his career and then like a big wall and
then just come out right like out of the quarantine
like this, driving the ball better than anybody in the world,
gaining strokes on approach as well. Um, So yeah, I
mean it's deserved in the small sample. I just you
have to kind of like, I don't know, it's one
of those cases where you have to make a decision. Obviously,
projection models are going to take a little bit of
time to catch up to that. You kind of have
(14:44):
to make a decision whether or not this like two
sample event sample of Bryson is what it's gonna look
like going forward, or if it's just like the upside
and Rory still the better player than him, And I
think that's a big battle between those two guys. Obviously,
in the two games sample, Bryson has played better in
every facet of the game, better off the tea, better
on approach, better around the green, better putting. So it's
(15:04):
tough to make a case against Bryson right now, especially
knowing that like the distance will be rewarded again and
knowing that he's going to attack things so aggressively. Um,
I mean, I think Rory is still better, right like, like, yes,
Bryson has been better for two events. I think what
separates them right now, Never thought you'd ever hear me
say this, but what separates them right now is Rory
(15:25):
is just so much better with his wedges, right Rory
Rory short game, Um, you know, over a year sample
or fifty rounds or whatever. Like, Like, if someone offered
me a bet right now strokes gained around the green
Rory versus Bryson, Like I would take Bryson or I
would take Rory next fifty rounds for sure. Yeah, yeah,
that's probably the case. But you probably wouldn't have expected
(15:47):
Bryson to be driving the ball better than better. Yeah,
so Bryson will have more of those around the green shots.
But yeah, I mean he's been better on approach as well.
So obviously a case we made for both of those guys.
Also a case we made for Justin Thomas, who's playing
really good for him, probably has more balance to his
game than any of um, the other players, just a
little bit better with his putter recently, um a little
(16:10):
bit better on approach than Bryson at least, and and
kind of more comparable to Rory there. So those are
kind of the top three guys looking at the field.
I don't think the ownership can get too heavy on
them because there's not a ton of value this week.
There's some stuff kind of in the eight K range
that feels easy to play, but there's not a lot
of cheap miss price plays, and so I would say,
(16:31):
like Rory probably goes off ten to owned Bryson kind
of in the high teams. But I don't think either
of these guys is a candidate to get like the
five or above. Yeah, I mean, I think I think
you can profitably play Rory Bryson, j T and Rom
for sure. I mean I I um, I mean, don't
don't put me in a coffin too soon. But I
(16:52):
just I can't. I can't really see myself playing Web
on any daily fantasy format this week, like more expect
something can't lay, I'll take can't lay every time. So
pretty much anyone other than uh, pretty much anyone other
than can't lay it that or pretty much anyone other
than Web, they're at the top. Like I'm playing can't lay, um,
you know, I not even really Brooks. So so Brooks
(17:14):
and Webb for me gonna be gonna be off there.
But nine point eight can't lay. Sign me up. Yeah,
And I don't think many people will go to Web
just off the wind. They didn't go to Burger off
of his wind, and so I feel like he's gonna
get passed up. Again, probably the type of player only
have exposure to on FanDuel. Just the way roster construction
works there, you can get some of these guys lower own.
You can get three or four like top end players
(17:35):
into the lineup. So that's the only thing I can
see that KEPCA is actually a pretty interesting scenario. It's
just one of those decisions, you know. The project models
are gonna take a long time to catch up. Probably
a bit over priced here anyways, especially with Rom right there.
But uh, Kepca actually I believe matched prison last week
in the field. As far as Strokes seeing off the tea,
he didn't seem a bit more like his old self,
(17:56):
but um, you know, not as good of an all
around golfer as some of these other I was PRIs
right near him, and I still prefer Rom over Kepta.
Um yeah, I prefer Rom. So I think my stances
up at the top will be obviously loads a rory,
loads of Bryson. Where are you at with j Where
are you at with JT? Right now? I feel like
I have a I have a hard time reading him,
(18:17):
and I think it's actually kind of a little bit
unfair to him that he has not mentioned like people
don't think of him as one of the best players
in the world, but like he's better than Brooks, right, like,
but people don't think of him that way. It sucks. Yeah,
I mean I think of JT is the top five player, um,
kind of right there in the upper class. I guess
historically I've leaned on JT, like and last week I
(18:39):
was on JT more than Bryson for example, And um,
I'll probably be closer to Bryson or having them equal
this week. And so I guess I've shifted my sentiment
a little bit away, especially with seeing how easy some
of these courses have played. But yeah, JT is obviously
live to win, and I think there's a reason those
three guys are the top favorites at Vandel Sports Book. Yeah,
(19:00):
I I tend to I tend to agree with that's
kind of looking like man I and they priced DJ
back up to like dollar DJ last week was was
a big you know, that was that was just a
big building block. I kind of think that I would
I'll do is I'll just skip on Rose, skip on Morica.
It's gonna hurt me. I mean, what is abraham answer
(19:21):
going to be this week? Like two percent owned now
that he's now that he's expensive, like nine k's at
thirty three to one in the betting markets, like no, no,
no opportunity to exploit that inefficiency there. Yeah, I think
Answer probably like five to ten percent. Usually you see
you don't see a guy that's like above eight k
goo below five very often, um, but a lot of
(19:41):
times you see him in that high single digit range.
I think that's where Answer all land and um, the
name values some of these other guys, like you talk
about people are either using optimizers to build line ups
or their casual players with golf, fielding, game and time.
And when you see Justin Rose called maricaa there, Bubba
Watson with his course history, you've got DJ right there.
Like there's just there's too much name value to suck
(20:02):
up ownership along with good projections. So yeah, Answer won't
be owned this week, so I might have to I
might have to give him the bump in the daily
Road optimizer. Actually, because first of all, as what we
were talking about earlier, you know guys who were gonna
hunt for pins like Answer is gonna hunt for pins
like that dude doesn't care about anything but making birdies.
So you know, he is a guy who could run
(20:23):
into one of those random sixty twos. I mean we
didn't even mention it at the top of the show,
but Jim Furick has the course record here with a
fifty eight. And actually I was doing a little bit
of research on Wikipedia last night and before before Jim
Furick broke a record. Do you have Do you have
a guess on who held the record before Furick broke it. No,
he's like Davis Love or something like that. Dude, it's
(20:43):
can't lay And he said it when he was a
junior and like two thousand and eleven. He he shot
a sixty at this course when he was like seventeen
or whatever, which is incredible. Yeah, I mean, it definitely
feels like the type of course that, like I can't
like to be good on its really strong approach players.
Answer did leave the yield last week in Strokes game.
Approach gameed almost as much of his irons as Bryson
did off the tee um, so I thought that was
(21:06):
pretty impressive. As far as his play, I think he
hit all eighteen greens of regulation in that round on Sunday,
So a little bit heartbreaking for him that, like Simpsons putter.
Just uh torch that beautiful ball striking performance. I mean,
imagine imagine being Abraham Answer about to have your breakout performance.
You feel like you're playing just this incredible yeah, and
(21:28):
you get beat Bye bye Web Simpsons Putter. I mean,
do we want to do? We want to take a
stance on course history Paul Casey. I My my feeling
is between the two course history guys, Casey and Watson.
You probably shouldn't play a bunch of both of them,
and I prefer Bubba to Casey just in general. Yeah,
(21:51):
I think Casey, I'm like gun Shy after last week
playing Hideki steing him come out like rusty or terrible,
playing a lot of snaw ds, seeing him come out terrible,
and then I was like, there's no way, Like that
was just so dumb in hindsight, there was no way
Snez was grinding if he's caddying for his like kid
in Nashville. So I'm gonna Shy and Casey because of that,
(22:12):
Like he hasn't been over at these other two events,
and I'm sure he's been practicing a little bit, but
we saw some rush from some other top end players
and it's not like you're getting a material price discount
on him. So UM, I guess for for me, Bubba,
between those two, UM, I'm also buying a little bit
more into Justin Rose with his comeback. UM, as far
as guys that potentially I would like interfere with the
(22:32):
model a little bit, just because Rose has been pretty
good t Green since he started to come back. So um,
those are some of the guys that I'm interested in
this range in general, I think the only case against
like a Bryson and Rory is just that you need
all your guys to be inside the top twenty. And
there are some really good name values in this field,
and it is of course where a lot of low
rounds should be out there. So maybe that if you
(22:54):
go up you can't grab a couple of guys from
this range. Yeah, I think. I think that if you
really like Rose, I mean maybe you really maybe you're
one of those dudes who really likes Morikawa. Maybe you're
buying a return to form for DJ. I think there is. UM,
I think there's gonna be a big edge in going
overweight on those guys if those feelings, you know, turn
(23:15):
out to be accurate, because the way I'm kind of
looking at it right now, is it just seems like
a Stars and Scrubs build is gonna be more appealing
as like the core of the way I structure things
for m M E. Yeah, I do think the Stars
and Scrubs it ends up like hitting opted builds for
me because of how I handle projected caps as far
(23:37):
as like the total cumulative roster present for players, and
so I think you get a lot of low owned punts,
and you obviously don't get a ton of low owned
balanced players. And so even if Bryson is popular like
Bryson and a punt is gonna be less cumulative then
two mid price guys and so um, that's one of
(23:57):
the reasons and optics I end up going starts and
scrubs more than like my gut says. Like my gut says,
it should feel like a balanced week where if one
of the top end guys doesn't win, they're not going
to hit the optimal. But when when like reality kicks in,
I usually end up rostering the topping players more than
I expect to. Yeah, um, so down in the eight
K range song J and Sergio for sure, um not
(24:20):
probably off read definitely not playing Smitet, definitely not playing speed. Uh,
probably won't play Fee now. I I have a feeling
the optimizer is gonna want me to play Fitzpatrick. I'll
probably trim it back a little bit on him this week.
Probably not super interested in Leishman either. So eight k
range really looks like, you know, Sung j and Woodland
(24:41):
are are the really optimal plays there. Yeah, I mean
to be honest, Sunjay it feels like he's setting up
in the same light as Webs and s Yeah. Mr Cut.
His his putter was egregious, like one one of the
worst two putting performances of his career, with the number
of strokes that he us even just through two rounds.
(25:01):
His ball stranging was good. It was not exceptional, wasn't
necessarily at Sunjay levels, but it was solid and he
was gaining strokes, so it's not like that was gone.
And then well, I don't know if you were watching
Saturday morning, but sun Sun shows up at the range, Mrs.
The Cut still shows up at the range the next day,
just always. I mean, what else is he gonna do?
What I mean, what else is Sonjay gonna do on
a Saturday. It's not like he's gonna, you know, go
(25:23):
out in Charleston and go hang out, you know, like
that dude. That dude is there to grind golf. That's
what some exists for. Yeah. So yeah, I mean, I'm
going back to Sunjay this week. The values there is
too good. He'll probably I mean, if I had to
call it now, he'll be And I think he's the
candidate to get kind of picked up this week. Uh.
(25:44):
Speech is not really good or not. You know, Spee's
not gonna pop in many models because his course history
is not elite here, um, and then Sergio is just
like it was a great ceiling performance from him last week,
but he hasn't been exceptional in the past like three months,
So I don't think he's inna popatime either. Probably boost
him a little bit just because his ball striking has
been so good through the first two events, but I
(26:06):
don't think he's gonna be a core play. I still
prefer song Jay out of all the other players in
this range. Um, And I guess I'm a little bit
more interested in fee now than you are. Yeah, um, Art,
So we're gonna go ahead and head into our break
here on the daily road to hour on sports Crade TV.
When we get back, we will dig into some of
the puntier guys on DraftKings and Fan Duel, and we
(26:27):
will also take a look at the betting markets as well.
Sports grid dot Com Betting Insights and entertainment at your
fingertips seven as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back from
(26:54):
break Here on the Daily Road to Hour on sports
Cred TV, we are breaking down daily fan of golf
at the Travelers Championship at the TBC Highlands, getting down
into some of the value sort of range. Uh Joaking
Neeman with quite the performance last week, um ends up
T five at the RBC Heritage. But uh that that
(27:17):
tea green game last week? He was he was on
the answer level of just felt like he was never
going to miss a green in regulation. Oh yeah, I
mean he was. He was dialed and it was three
of the four rounds too. It's like his bad round
was still neutral t to green, but three or four
rounds were elite including I think the top top three
(27:39):
and the round three and then like a top ten
finish on Sunday as far as strokes gain t green,
So he was getting tons of opportunities. Obviously with that
strong finish, he's seen a price hike, but uh, a
DFS favorite a guy that should still hit ownership in
this kind of range that offers a lot of you know,
appeal to balanced and top and range. Dude, someone's gonna
(27:59):
tell Gary Woodland he's got to take the driver out
of the bag. The guy's giving. He's watching, he's watching
everyone else do it. That's so funny because we were,
like I was talking on the show last week of like,
you know, Woodland on the lesson driver courses and then
Bryson shows up and it's just smashing driver off the
tea and Jts hitting driver off the tea and then
Woodlands there with his uh you know, his fore iron
(28:20):
looking like decrepit old man. It's like Woodland, wharre You
just pick your head up, dude, Look what everyone else
is doing. Hit the driver. He's given like up two
strokes around to like Bryson basically just off the tea.
So yeah, you can hit area. I know you can
hit the driver fire just taking out of the bag. Um, okay,
Hoveland couldn't could not be more And I think Hoveland
(28:40):
very similar to NeiMa. Just gonna gain so many strokes
t to Green like you will win this year. Yeah,
I feel good about holind In that in that price range,
I mean, um, the type of guy you would expect
to be aggressive, the type guy you would expect to
generate Bertie looks and pretty reasonable price fits fits stars
and shrubs bills as like a second or a guy.
If it's balanced builds, it's like a third or fourth guy.
(29:02):
So those are those are good names. I don't know
if the ownership will follow, um, I feel like it
probably will, but those are the names that jumped out
to me. Scottie Scheffler if he plays this week. I
thought he was in the field to start but not
play last week. Do we know why he withdrew? No,
we don't know. Um, So obviously there's question marks there
as far as it will show up this week. There's
(29:22):
like COVID question marks, which is gonna happen anytime someone
would draws from an event. But he was local to
to Dallas, so as possible, he just like stayed home
after the Colonial week, didn't want to travel or something.
But you would expect the guy like that, who's younger,
who hasn't made like fifteen million dollars a hundred million dollars,
you'd expect him to be grinding a little bit. So
I don't know, it'll be interesting. Maybe we'll see some news. Um.
(29:44):
Those are the guys that jumped out at the top.
I feel like, I mean, I feel like they're gonna
be consensus picks. But that's where I'm at right now,
early in the week. I mean, I'm cool. I'm cool
with the you know, Hoveland and Scheffler being my consensus. Like,
I don't care if that's chalk. I'm jamming him anyways.
Like I dare the field to try and match my
ownership on those dudes. Like, go ahead and ahead and
(30:05):
do that. Everyone. I'd like to see you try. Another guy,
Joel Damon just keeps our boy. He just keeps gaining strokes.
I mean, he uh, not not as great on, not
as great on Sunday this last week at the RBC
at the RBC where he fires the but tweet no gino.
(30:25):
He his caddy is really funny. Yeah, so they had
like the rain Delaide. Damon was plus two through four
holes and like he tweeted something out and his caddy
went on Twitter and like basically made fun of the
inmon for hacking it around the middle of around still
like fourteen holes left to get into contention, just getting
trolled by your caddy. Yeah, he has fun. He has
(30:49):
fun on the course. Um, guys, I can say I'm
not playing Kevin Kissner not playing him. Uh, Jason Day
not playing him. Uh, Brian Palmer probably not playing him.
I reserved, I reserved the right to change my mind
on that. Co crack though co Crack, He's getting in
the player pool for sure. Yeah. Um, it's like two weeks.
(31:10):
I've made these like fancy five percent owned players on
like Jason Days of the World, and obviously it's not
gonna come through all the time. It came through a Sergio,
but it has not come through the day yet. I'm
starting to lose my patients with five percent on Jason Day.
Probably be off this week. Corey Connors I like quite
a bit at the same exact price, he'd beat the
heat the Green game, so good. Yeah, it's been good,
(31:33):
and you know those he's one of those guys grinding
for a paycheck. So um, I like that angle quite
a bit. I like co Crack. I guess that like
Bryan Palmer a little bit more than you do. And
I kind of regretted, like instant regretted not playing him
a bunch last week because he was chalk at Colonial,
because of course history goes to a course that sets
up exactly like Colonial, and then he's like two percent
(31:54):
owned and he has much better finish. The underlying metrics
were good. He definitely ran a little bit hot with
the putter, but the ball striking was good too. So um,
there's not a lot of great plays down in this
below range, and Ryan Palmer stands out as one of
the okay players that they can get on board with.
I think there, I think there's some really good plays
down here, and these guys are guys that have just
been getting dusted by, Like I can't go back to
(32:16):
the well in Seneker with a high degree of confidence ousty,
no confidence in that, you know, don't don't play those guys,
but play play the dudes. Play the dudes down here
who are just terrible at putting. But do the others
like like, uh, I mean you know for Telly, right,
why why are you? Why are we not jamming in
for Telly this week? Yeah? So for Telly he was
(32:37):
was he the did he end up the low round
on Sunday? Or was it he was like second or third?
I guess it might have been shot at sixty two
Sunday at RBC. Yeah, I think he was the top
t Green performance too. Um and yeah, I mean he
is in the range where he'd be like a sprinkle
for me, a post o core building block. I guess. Um,
I don't know if the ownership will be there or not.
He obviously ran hot with the puddy last week, but
(32:58):
the ball striking was good too. Um. I don't gotta
run hot with the putter though. So so my two guys, Yeah,
I think you're gonna like one of them, and I
think you're gonna think the other guys a dust bucket.
You want me to lead off with the dust bucket
and the guy that you're like first? Alright, Lucas Glover
seven thous No, no, dude, I love Lucas Glover. So,
(33:21):
I mean Glover has been he's been consistent coming out
of the break. That's something. Now we have a couple
of rounds, something I'm looking for and a value play especially,
and I think he gets it done kind of in
all aspects of the game. Putter can be hit or
missed sometimes for him, but I think he's like average ish,
so not egregious, not a topping guy. And then they
I think you're gonna be on board with that. I
(33:41):
like a lot this week who I think can play
pretty aggressive. It's got some of those liberal politics on Twitter.
I know you're all about that. So Maxima, I think
it's really good value play this week too. Could could
not be more wrong. I never play Maxima and I
always play Lucas Glover. Well this is this is a
good week for Maxima. One of the few guys that
you can find down here who has sort of elite
(34:02):
off the team play and can gain strokes on approach
and was really strong at RBC Heritage just was was
off the game with the putters. So I'm into max
Homa this week. His official World Golf Ranking page just um,
it's uh, it doesn't make it move for me, like
I just think of I just think of home as
such a dusty bucket style player basically. Yeah, um, just
(34:28):
not really for me, Kevin Nah, I guess would be interesting.
I don't know why he showed up for the first
event and didn't play this week. Kind of falls into
the same boat as Cheffler. Sore back is um what
he said, Yeah, and he hadn't been practicing very much,
So I mean, I Kevin not an informed can not
(34:48):
be interested in that. I guess that concerns me a
tiny bit. So maybe not a core play, but we're
we're going to have to tease through some of these
guys because like the COVID stuff. I mean, you saw Watney,
he had been tested before the event, and then he
test positive on Friday with the symptoms and the instant tests,
and so I mean you're gonna see some of that stuff,
and some of the guys that have been out, you're
(35:08):
gonna wonder about them coming back with Like Wantney, the
guys who he had played with tested negative. The guys
who had played on groups either side of him had
tested negative as well. But that doesn't mean that there
wasn't like some exposure and something that a test could
pop up in the future. It's probably a level too
deep for me to like knock guys who played with
Nick Watney, but it's it's at least like on my
mind as we're talking about this week. Yeah, I disagree
(35:31):
with you that there aren't more guys down here um
to play it though, Uh, like Bud Collie, I'm in
what about what about noted data golf boy Carlos Ortiz
at at six hundred, he fired a sixty three on Saturday. Now,
granted he followed that up with a seventy three on Sunday,
(35:53):
but that Carlos Ortiz is like, uh, he's he he
just is uh instead of being from Chili, he is
he's like he. He and Neeman have such a similar
game basically of of just Ta Green and when they
make I mean, he made nineteen birdies last week, Carlo
Sortiz did Like that's nineteen berties and two eagles. That's
crazy game, Like four and a half strokes putting, He
(36:16):
lost strokes. T Green wasn't hit the ball very well.
Maybe a lot of that was the Sunday rounds and
obviously a lot of pressure in that round. He's not
used to being in that position. But look, I like
Carlos Ortiz enough, Like I like him as much as
the next guy. But saying like conviction plays or guys
where you're in like a single entry and you're like, oh,
I feel good about this guy being like the last time,
(36:38):
Like I would play Carlo sorties and single entry three max. Yeah,
and I think I would stop at like Glover probably
That's where I'm at. No, don't gamble, no future calling.
I mean, okay, are we have even better plays down here? Though?
Matthew Matthew Wolf sixty, I mean, yeah, Phil, Phil at
a course where how bad is Phil? Then? Yeah, I
(36:59):
mean he's been really bad. But if you if you
wanted to use a narrative on Phil, there's a pretty
obvious one, which is, uh, Bubba crushes here and at Augusta,
both of which are courses that like theoretically should maybe
favor left handed golfers, right because that that's that's always
been the narrative for those two, is that at courses
that are built to stop right handed golfers, those guys
(37:19):
should have an edge. Yeah, And I think like, yeah,
Bubba is always like the sight lines, like the sight
lines and sight lines. He's all about the sight lines,
and he likes to move the ball. I mean, the
dude sees like a straight tree lined fairway and he
still tries to figure out a way to hit a
cut like up over the trees and back in to
the fairway. So I mean that's Bubba fill is obviously
(37:40):
a little bit different. But you know, Phil is gonna
be aggressive right like, And that's that's one of the
things you have to love about it at six d
um and the fact that, like you said, there are
a lot of players in this field. I know that
there's no chance Bill it's gonna pop in the projections,
but um, he's probably a guy outlanded to play on that,
like you know, like three percent. Because how mad are
you when Phil is three on Sunday and you're like, well,
(38:01):
I'd have got no part of that hit me and
he'll never be t three Sunday. But how pissed are
you when he like opens up with like four birdies
and seven holes and he's first round leader and then
like he totally abjects with like a triple. But it's like,
just for that moment of life that Phil can bring,
I'll be on you are you're you are mad for
just those few seconds of being like, well could have
(38:23):
had could add all that Phil, And uh, you know
I don't have any but a couple of the other
Chief Jam Champ, are you and you on Cam Champ? No,
Cam Champ. Uh, this is the range where I started
thinking of, you know, Russell Knox, our boy, our boy
Doc Redman last week fired sixty six, sixty five, sixty
seven on Friday, Saturday Sunday. A pretty good round from him.
(38:45):
Johnny Vegas another dude down there that, uh, I think
you can play Bryce Garnett, a guy who I I
literally think I play Bryce Garnett more than like Bryce
Garnett's parents would if they were playing on Draft Kings.
And uh, you know he's a he's a pretty decent
cutmaker on tour. A couple of these other guys are interesting.
But we are going to go ahead and head into
(39:06):
break here on the Daily Road to Hour on Sports
Grade TV. When we get back, we're going to take
a look at the betting markets one and done, and
maybe go through a few more of our cheap punt
plays here sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
(39:27):
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks and more want the edge than get on
the grid sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome
back from break Here on the daily Road to Hour
on Sports Grade TV. I'm David's Mattock, joined by Colin
Drew finalizing our punt discussion here. You know, we we
(39:50):
wouldn't be doing our job as golf touts if we
didn't mention the dude who won the Outlaw Tour event,
who is the number one amateur golfer in the world.
See Heath the gala Um playing in this event. Not
exactly sure how he qualified, not exactly sure, but exempture
or whatever. It's a fun little wrinkle slapp. He's gonna
love him this week. Have to imagine he's not gonna
look very good in the daily role optimizer. I gotta
(40:12):
say zero percent play for me. Maybe I'll play him
in showdown where I tend to build more, do more
hand building. Maybe I'll get my exposure there. Yeah, yeah,
he should like at sixty two his first round as
a pro pepper iron player went pro, played out lot
to our event, little tune up and then he's in
the field this week. So um, he's extremely cheap and
he would definitely fit the stars and scrubs build, and
(40:34):
I think it's a guy that I'm I'm curious to
see where Data Golf has him as far as their
World Golf rankings for amateurs, because they do a lot
more stuff with that now than they used to, and
so I think they'll have more data on him, and
I think maybe he'll be better than like a zero
in the projection system. So I'm kind of kind of curious,
and I definitely think he's a player that I'll get
talked a little bit about this week. Probably seem like
(40:54):
he's gonna be chalk, but then when it comes down
to it, I think he'll he'll be no more than
five percent, So um type of player. I'll probab take
a little bit of a stab. On the other thing,
I think it's really interesting this week. So Matthew Wolf
is priced down below seven thousand dollars in draftkicks. There
was a time last summer where people were legitimately, they
were legitimately arguing about whether or not Hoblin, Morrikaba or
Wolf was a better professional. Now there's a massive disconnect
(41:17):
between the prices for those three guys Um, and so
I think that's pretty interesting as well. And Wolf the
type of guy that can definitely go low whether you're
talking about Showdown or main slate. Um, so I think
not super bullish on mainslate Wolf, I'm thinking I'm interested, um,
but not like a lock button, but showdown for sure. Yeah,
(41:37):
I'm a man. I don't know, Like, if we're gonna
we're gonna talk about it's if we're gonna talk about
T de Green T two Green games. I mean, who
better than Matthew Wolf at are we gonna find in
terms of t de Green? Like that dude strokes it? Yeah?
So I mean it's tough, man, it's tough letting down
here there a guy like everybody down here has either
(41:58):
had poor performs the three stently, which is why they're
cheap there, or they're they're guys that I've played at
low ownership in recent weeks. They missed the cut, which
is why they're cheap and I have to go back
to them. Or you play like these young you know
young guys web upside, I haven't done a lot in
their career and they're pretty volatile, so you can you
can make a pretty good mix of of guys this week.
I mean Vegas Garnett, Uh, those dudes there. But then
(42:21):
also like Wyndham Clark, you know, like Wyndham Clark is
uh the the the like driving and putting like that's
what he does and then everything else is terrible. But
like you know, if that if you get hot doing
those two things for four days or even two rounds,
really right, you know, you post two seventies and then
you post a sixty three and a sixty four, like
that's going to be more than especially on in terms
(42:43):
of DFS scoring, I would say, like Doc Redman, I
don't think I played them very much. Maybe a little
bit in round four showdown, but um, like his it
wasn't like a fluke is performances off, the team play
was great. He's game strokes on approach both of the events,
and he's come back. Not the best short game player
in the world, um, but six Like I feel like
the underlying metrics have been there for him too. So
(43:03):
not the worst play as far as a value play, yeah, uh.
And then you know I have to give I have
to give my uh my honorary mentioned to Adam Shank
uh is Adam shank is five hundred to one on
the FanDuel sports book. I mean, come on, how are
we not betting that? Right? Yeah, It's it's so interesting
(43:25):
with these events because it's they've been the type of
events that you feel like a five one player could
actually contend and win, but then they've ended up with
like stacked, like really sexy leaderboards with top end places. Yeah,
so Morikwall probably went off, I would guess on the
Vandal sports book. I don't remember probably thirty three to
(43:45):
one where him in the playoff. Yeah, I think he
was like a little bit less than forty. Um, so
it feels like a ringo guy could break through. I
mean you saw guys get close, right, You saw like
the Michael Thompson rounds and um you suffer Telly and
stuff like that. Guys get close, not just not quite enough.
So yeah, maybe it is the week that one of
these guys is able to shoot low enough, because like
you said, it does feel like is going to be
(44:07):
the requirement for the winning score again. So looking at
the top of the betting markets here, I I actually, um,
I think this is so interesting because what we're seeing
happen is because the leaderboards have been so tight, Rory's
number has actually been cut in a half each of
the last two weeks. He went from um at colonial.
The first week he was seven to one, and now
(44:30):
he is eleven and one, tied to the top of
the market with j T. And I mean part of
that is he's had these I think he I think
his last two Sundays he's gone uh so you know
that's not going to make people rush to their betting
windows to to go wager on him. But I mean,
I think there's a very good argument to just be like,
(44:51):
I'm betting this like a football game. I'm betting. I'm
betting three units on Rory eleven to one, and that's
my golf betting for the week. Like I think they're
is a legitimate case to be made for that. So
see you perform prefer Rory at this price to Bryson. Yeah,
I mean, look, I love Bryson. Bryson is the best.
Trying to hear you're you're still a Rory guy. Yeah,
(45:13):
I mean, look, Rory is the best golfer in the world.
I just think that is that is objectively true. Um
maybe on maybe on Sundays he's like the third best
golfer in the world instead of the best, but yeah,
he's still better than Bryson. I think yeah, I mean,
I think you're right. As far as the reason that
Rory's odds have been slashed, it's also like the ascension
of Kepca. He's been like priced up off of like
(45:35):
the rebound there, like Simpson's been pressing up. Bryson obviously
has been priced up, and then like DJ Rose, so
you're getting some like old school form guys priced up
and that's also impacting Rory. Um, I would prefer to
play rom One over Rory. I think one of the
best off the tea players in the world, obviously really
good an approach as well, can go super low, and
(45:56):
the Teter Green game has been there through his first
two events. Putter didn't collick the first one when he
missed the cut. But um, I'm comfortable playing Ron this
week and hoping that, you know, third event in a
row he can kind of get it together. You can
you can bet court like half unit on rom at
T one and like also be betting other guys. I
think if you are in this event, if you are
(46:17):
betting j T or Rory and not in live betting,
but doing it before it begins, I think you just
got to be like that's my bet for the week
or or I mean, obviously you can do you know,
quarter unit bets on guys who are are super deep.
But like I, I wouldn't be betting like I wouldn't
be going into this week betting Rory and then also
betting you know a handful of guys in the forties. Like,
(46:39):
I think that's probably bad. So are you going to
spend on Well, it sounds like you would only bet
Rory if you're gonna bet a toyping guy, so um
for me, the top of guy would be rom. It
sounds like you're gonna bet Rory and are you gonna
bet anybody else? Up? I I have I have placed
my wagers for this week and the highest guy that
I have bet as of now is Sergio at uh
(47:04):
to one and he and he moved to forty two
to one. But I I prefer, I think I I
this week. I think it's a little bit better to
get uh Sergio, you know, to kind of take your
pick up like Hogland, Connors, Damon, you know whoever at
co Crack you know someone in there that you like,
and then I think there are I mean when we
(47:25):
were talking about the punts, like I think their dudes
deeper than a hundred one who can legitimately win this week. Yeah, yeah,
I think for the mid price guys, I think some
j m at one is probably one of the guys
setting up the web parallel that it's just setting it
up almost the same price too that you're getting. So
I think some of day is a good value. You're
not really getting a discount on him. But I prefer
(47:45):
like Hotland has been priced up Holands so on. On
fan Duel he's at forty. There are other numbers out
there where you can get him at like sixty five
six to seventy, and I would, Um, you know, if
you have that number available to you, I would, I
would use it. Yeah. So um been on at a
hundred thirty two one, I think would be one of
the longer shots. That seems like he's he's Benny. If
(48:09):
you're listening, buddy, I'm I'm sorry. I really I love you.
Um You've done a lot of good for me, But
I I can't. I can't with him right now, like
we we just have to be done with him, right,
I mean, you get you gotta like monitor your exposure
in dfs. But when like gatting strokes t to green
right now, yeah, I mean when a tailbox putter tilts
(48:29):
it off putting, I mean it kind of is what
it is. It comes with the territory, Like the reason
you're you're getting a cheap price on him. But um,
if he's if he's in the field this week, huntred
thirty one, I think it's an okay price. See him
up there on the odds market, but don't have that confirmed.
I see I see Redman and Glover at a hundred
and thirty two one. Um, I think both of those
are equitable prices. Like maybe you'd rather maybe you'd rather
(48:51):
bet them in Ta tan or T twenty markets or whatever. Um,
but like where's the fun in that? Like why why
are we trying why are we trying to grind out?
You know, like why are we trying to grind out
like two units at a time? Like yeah, so, I
mean it's it's Monday when we're recording this. Most of
the books have outright prices out there. They don't get
the T twenties out there until later in the week.
I think they take some of their actions sharpen up
(49:12):
their prices and then send out the T twenties and
most of the guys that I bet outright, I'll end
up adding to T twenty once those markets are at
as well, just because I'm a nit David. So I
granted T twenties a little bit um, well, I would
grind T twenties more had I not been having a
really good year of betting on out right smashing out
(49:33):
rights every week. Yeah, so like I actually, I mean
I even know this to be true. In eighteen I was,
or twenty nineteen, I was betting T twenties every week
because I literally I hit one winner in twenty nineteen,
Ricky Fowler at the Waste Management, and that was it.
And then it was just like, what's the point. But
I have plenty of you know, I have plenty of
golf betting funds I've set aside from running hot. So
(49:58):
I'm not I'm not touting T twenties here. We're tout
Doc Redman hundred one and go and get it. You know.
So you got any super deep plays for the boys, Yeah,
I mean I think you have to bet wolf at
a hundred and fifty two one or deeper. Uh, And
then this is the the Keith Mitchell corollary when he
won the Honda class to get two d and fifty one.
(50:20):
Can you like, I don't know if I would ever
recover from Adam Shank winning a PGA bet at five
one and not having invested in that, Like, I'd be
so miserable. So I I am invested there as well. Yeah,
I think the other price that kind of caught my
eyes a little bit was Aaron Wise at as far
as like a sprinkle long shot definitely okay, not sprinkling
(50:42):
that one low dollar bet, but he was the other
price that jumped outs me. Um, okay, we have we
have one and done to get to as well. I
don't think there's an easy answer this week. I think
Paul Casey, Bubba Watson are gonna be super owned. Um
I'm thinking about is taking Abraham answer because I probably
(51:03):
I won't bet him and I won't have much of
him in DFS if at all, So I'll just I
can just get some exposure to a guy I think
is good and can win there. Yeah, we talked. We
talked about this a bit every week. I think a
couple events and you kind of need to have your
segment strategy figured out by this point, if you picked
up a winner through the first two, then I think
(51:24):
you can go towards the top end of the board
and play some of these favorites. Um Or, play like
a chocky player that's a good value, like a Bubba
Watson guy that will be popular this week. You might
not really want to use them other weeks. On tour,
you definitely know it's one of the best places to
use them on. But obviously, if you haven't picked up winners,
you're gonna need to make up grounds. And to make
up ground, you obviously can't just play the picks that
everybody else is playing. Uh. You want to save up
(51:45):
the top end players for other segments, and so I
would avoid the top of the board, and you'll also
want to avoid the super consensus picks like Bubba Watson,
like Patrick can't Lay. Possibly, So I think in oh
can't Lay is a good one. Yeah, he will be
He will be pretty popular. So I mean I think
in that type of environment, yeah, you're you're going to
like an Abraham Answer who's probably never going to have
(52:06):
like higher form rating than he does right now. Um
Or you're going to like like a Tony Fee now
type kind of sticking within the top forty framework as
far as overall visual world golf rankings, but um, trying
to get someone who's a little bit less popular. All right, everyone,
thank you very much for listening and watching to the
(52:28):
Daily Road to Hour. We are done here. Hope hope
Abraham answer wins this week. If Patrick Hanley doesn't, we'll
be back and we'll see all you guys soon. Sports
grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more.
(52:48):
Want the edge than get on the grid. Sports grid
dot com
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