Davis Mattek is joined by Colin Drew, as the guys recap the Travelers Championship and the winning performance of Dustin Johnson. Davis and Colin also preview the Rocket Mortgage Classic and give you some of their best bets for the event. They also break down the DFS slate by price range to help you build the best lineup for this weekend!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Enjoy the show and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:21):
and welcome to the Daily Roado Hour here on Sports
Crede TV. This also doubles as the Daily Roado Going
for the Green Fantasy Golf Podcast. I'm Davis Maddock joined
by Colin Drew breaking down the Rocket Mortgage Classic at
the Detroit Golf Club. We just got done with a
pretty exciting event. Uh, Dustin Johnson wins the Travelers Championship.
(00:44):
Pretty good, pretty good week for me at the Travelers
champ But you have didn't cash the Dustin Johnson to
one ticket on the Fandel Sports Book, like I know
a lot of people were. That was somehow, somehow DJ
one was a really chalky number. But the week before
Drew by he was forty two one and I hadn't
even better price, and uh didn't didn't get the win there.
His number cuts in half, the public is on him.
(01:06):
That's always a little frustrating. I mean, there's nothing worse,
right if a guy. You're on a guy one week,
like a week too early, and then his number gets
slashed in half, so you don't see the value anymore
than he wins. It feels like, I mean, it's like
stuff like that's gonna happen from time to time. It's
gonna happen the other way too, um and I think
we saw that the week before with Web Simpson where
he was available at a little bit bigger price. So
(01:26):
the sword cuts both ways. But it's definitely frustrating to
be on the bad end of it. Yeah, it is,
so uh, you know, no huge observations for me. Last week,
UM DFS is still alive. Brandon Todd was owned in
Round four Showdown. I took approximately zero percent in my
(01:46):
mm E mix, and watching that round, watching every shot
that he and DJ took, felt felt pretty vindicated in
that decision. I played it a little bit differently than you.
I had a little bit of exposure to both, but
not too many line ups were we're both on the
same roster, and so that was kind of how I
went about differentiating thing. Man, the golf tilt was was
(02:07):
serious for me. Yesterday Victor Holand was playing lights out
t green on the back nine, like he had seven
birdie or eagle puts within twenty ft and couldn't make
a single one. The only birdie he rolled in on
the back nine was after missing an eagle put on
that driveable part four from fifteen ft and so you
got that one birdie. He doubled the part five. If
(02:29):
he makes one birdie, Davis, one more birdie on the
back nine, I'm winning a hundred K. Still came out
five k ahead on the week, so it's not too bad.
But man, I was slamming some tilt beers yesterday. I was, well,
it was. It was an amazing week for till In,
for you know, for everyone. Because Scotti Scheffler misses the cut. Uh,
you know, a couple other really high owned guys missed
(02:51):
the cut, like right on the number. Matthew Fitzpatrick was
one that our projections really liked. So he was a unique,
a unique in the field that that didn't make the cut.
But we did have one great unifying moment. Some j
makes a bogey on fifteen has to get a birdie
coming in, comes down to eighteen. He's got to make
one birdie to get inside the cut line, and somehow
(03:13):
darts on eighteen to make the pun. That was that's
I mean, that is just uh, you know, it's the
most ideal that that's the height of pg A dfs
for sure. Yeah, my main slate was was not great.
I had some good teams in the lottery style tournaments
right at the Green Millie Maker, but in general it
was a low six or six week. Not many teams
were able to get all six through the cut. I
(03:33):
think it was sub five percent. Like you said, a
lot of chockey names missing. There was also the cut
line sweat, like wondering whether or not those minus three
guys we're gonna get through or it was gonna move
to minus four ended up moving to minus four, and
there were there were some popular names right there on
that minus three number two. So all in all, the
the experience definitely delivered. From the sweat perspective, the results
(03:54):
were good, but man, it's it's tough. You don't get
any cracks at six figures, so when they don't go
you away it's fresh. Well, I mean, you get plenty
of clocks. You get, you get plenty of cracks at it,
especially assuming NFL Showdown is uh is going to return,
but we are we are both Oh I was gonna
say yeah, I mean that was another thing. The COVID
(04:16):
testing obviously pre tournament, huge storyline, whether or not they
were going to even have the event. Um with the
I don't want to call it an outbreak, but like
the mini outbreak that was happening, and Brooks keptco Withdrew
because of his caddie testing positive and the negative. You
had Webb Simpson who Withdrew two of the top five
or six favorites in the field going into that, and
(04:36):
then you mid event you had stuff happening as well,
Dylan for Telly pulling out, you had Bud Collie pulling
out and rest in Peace, Yeah, Denny mc potts pulling out,
and then Jason Day going out like waiting on the
results for a test and I'm asking to go out
as a single. So UM, I don't know. I'm not
going to get into the whole like my feelings on
how the tour should handle it, because nobody really cares
(04:58):
or wants to hear that. But from a DFS perspective,
especially in some of these showdown stuff like you've got
to be staying on top of things before a lock,
because it seems reasonable that we're gonna be dealing with
this on a weekweek basis, at least to some degree.
Maybe not two of the top six favorites, but it's
something that's here at least for the foreseeable future. Yeah. Uh, well,
it's gonna be a little bit different this week in
(05:20):
Detroit because the field is not near as strong. So
Bryson and Web are really the only two, you know,
top like let's say, let's say top fifteen ish players
in the world. I guess the deck, he's there, but
then it drops off pretty quick to hat and read
hobblin song Jay. So not not nearly as strong of
a field as we have had the first three weeks back,
(05:43):
you know, going to going to Detroit in the middle
of a global pandemic. Don't think I can blame these
dudes for not wanting to trek out there this this
golf course that they're playing the Rocket Mortgage Classic at,
though uh it is this is a Munich course, right,
like what Nate Lashly won at. I believe minus twenty
six last year Like this, this is just going to
(06:04):
be an absurd scoring week on Draft Kings and FanDuel. Yeah.
I mean basically, if you ever wanted to see how
like the Tour, if you think about the toughest course
in your like local area, and you ever wanted to
see public and you wanted to see how the tour
players would tear that apart, I mean it's basically what
you're getting this week. Yeah, they were. I mean, like
the cut line. I mean, you're you have to fire
(06:25):
super low even to make the cut, and then minus
ten is not even really gonna get you. Instead the
top ten, you're not gonna be flirting with anything, so
you need you guys are gonna be shooting like five
under every day and that might not even be good
enough to win. Yeah. So this golf course has three
reachable par fives. There's a par four which had a
forty eight percent Bertie rate on it last year. Uh.
(06:47):
The so I mean just they're they're not really difficult
holes here. Uh And and you know, putting is really
going to be a huge explanatory variable this week. Yeah.
I mean, your boy Bryson is gonna be like going
driver nine iron into some of these, it's gonna be crazy.
And like you said that the scoring is gonna be
super low. Whenever the scoring is low, it means that
(07:08):
a lot of the deviation is explained by putting. Obviously,
the top T Green guys last year, they were there
on the leaderboard, they were inside the top ten, the
top fifteen, couple, inside the top five, but it was
the top putters who actually won the event. So, um,
almost isn't even gonna matter if your guys just lights
out T Green because if the putter is not there,
then it's it's not gonna be good enough for for dfs.
(07:29):
And like we said, like putting week to week has
a lot of volatility to it, so it does mean
there could be some randomness, could be some weird names,
some Nate Lashlely type names who win this event, right,
And I mean any event where we are going to
get you know, large results that are largely based off
of putting. Um that to me is first off, I'm
(07:50):
gonna want to take more stands in dfs. But also
I'm like at the top but at the bottom, like
I'm gonna be willing to play dude who I have
never played before, pretty much. Yeah, I think that's definitely
the case. You can you've got to figure out like
what your macro approaches. But it does seem easier to
try to fade like value Chalk plays just because it
(08:11):
doesn't matter if they play really well. They have to
play really well and run hot with the putter and
so um that's a little bit different than some of
the courses that reward the slightly more predictable t Green
skill set some of the more difficult courses on tour,
and I feel like we saw some of that last
week with you know, guys like Nieman who played well,
but uh the scoring was super low and he didn't
put as well as he had the week prior. So
I don't know that at the top on Vanduel Sports Book,
(08:33):
like you said, Bryson six and a half to one,
Web Simpson twelve to one, Hideki and Turtle Haddon at
fourteen to one, Patrick Reed, Victor Hoblind at sixteen to one,
song j m at twenty one, and Ricky Fowler. I
don't know if you still consider him a top player
in the world, but at least in public perception he's
up there. So it is not as strong with field
as we've seen the past three weeks. Well let's let's
just go ahead and break the ice here. I did
(08:56):
bet Bryson at at seven now six to one on
Vandal sports book, but I was kind of just looking
at it and I'm like, you know what, he is
just gonna have so many birdie opportunities at this course,
so many eagle opportunities. I just like he's got to
win this event more than the market is suggesting. Like
he is truly the only world class player in this field.
(09:18):
I know people love Web Simpson right now, but Bryson
is better than Web. I think Bryson is better than
the Web two. But Web is world class right now.
He definitely doesn't get the respect I think he deserves
for his results over the previous year. Um, but yeah,
I mean Bryson the class of the field six and
a half to one. I think when you look at
the field and you look at Bryson's ascension, it makes sense.
(09:40):
I guess the randomness of putting is like he feels
like a stone lock to top ten. The randomness of
putting is what can keep him from winning or give
somebody else the chance to kind of upset him. But
it feels like a stone lock Bryson's top ten that
should be like min Yeah, I mean I would probably
bet top five and uh and top twenty as well.
(10:02):
So right now, Data Golf gives him over an eight
chance or chance to make the cut, fifty chance to
top twenty percent, chance to t five, nine percent win
equity that Data Golf is giving Bryson that, Um, I
think that's as high as anyone I've ever seen other
(10:22):
than Rory. I think that he's the only other dude
who I've seen really get to that degree. Yeah, I'm
try I'm trying to remember, like DJ during Prime DJ
heater RBC Canadian Open with the week field up, there
might have been pretty close. Um, And that's that's kind
of the comp that I'm thinking about this week, where
it does feel like there's there's Bryson and there's a
(10:44):
big gap and then there's like a bunch of Scrouse
kind of behind that. So, um, a strategy perspectiveson and
just in general, UM, I assume he'll be popular like
ownership or something like that. But UM, I don't know that.
I don't think the bet is outrageously bad. It's just
the amount of putting that goes into this event could
(11:05):
keep you well if you if you Unfortunately, if you
are betting Bryson, such as myself, you can't really bet Hofland,
you can't really bet Scotty Scheffler, you can't really bet
Doc Redman, can't really bet Lucas Glover. Like you kind
of just have to be like, well, I guess this
is the decision that I've made, and I'm betting Bryson
and deep shots only, which is generally not the way
(11:27):
that that I go about betting on these events. Like
I would like to bet Michael Thompson in this event.
I'd like to bet Kyle Stanley in this event, but
it kind of seems like I've priced myself out of
that one. Yeah, And I think you kind of take
the same thing, like hideki Um seems like it in
this field. It seems like a decent enough um price
on him and Sun jay N as well, like guys
(11:49):
that you feel like you're getting okay prices. I'm considering
the talent in the field, but like you said, Um,
there's only so much you can squeeze. And obviously some
of the data gull stuff thinks the Bryson bett might
be negative expected you um and some of these other
guys being positive, but obviously so your opinion disagrees with that.
So if you're gonna make Bryson six and a half
to one or better, then there's definitely no value in
the kind of that mid tier and you gotta you
(12:11):
gotta drop to the hift one guys. And I don't
remember the price I'm lastly last year, but I'm yeah,
he would have been crazy deep. Yeah, I mean Bryson,
you know, he's gaining strokes everywhere but around the green,
but I don't necessarily see him being around the green
all that often in uh in this event. Yeah yeah,
(12:32):
So so like shot, he actually hit a couple of
decent wedge shots, you know when he was because he
was in the feature group last week with Roring. I
remember being kind of impressed, like he had that our
motion he has is so funky. I just always assume
that's uh that his wedge shots are going to be terrible.
But we are gonna we are gonna go ahead and
head into break here real quick on the daily Road
(12:52):
to hour on Sports Grade TV. When we return, we're
going to head over to dfside head going away from
the betting Mark for a little it, and we're going
to break down the Rocket Mortgage, the Rocket Mortgage Classic
at the Detroit Golf Club from a daily fantasy golf perspective,
starting with Bryson and heading all the way down the
pool and talking some larger macro strategy as well. Sports
(13:17):
grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
seven as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com, Hello everyone, and welcome back from
break here on the daily road to our getting into
(13:40):
draftings by price range. Of course, we are starting out
with Bryson, the most expensive player in the field. Eleven thousand,
seven hundred Web eleven flat, Tyrell Hatton ten point seven,
Patrick Read ten point five, Decky ten point to Hoveland
ten k flat, Drew be talk me out of, talk
me out of w g C, mexicoing this and just
(14:02):
just all in. We're just we're just pressing the lock
button on Bryson and we're we're living with the results
after that. I don't think I can be talked out
of it. I think I don't think it's an irresponsible
decision um completely, especially in M M ME because a
couple of things like an MM, you're gonna want to
scatter things out with the lower price range guys, and
it's easier to do that if you lock somebody, because
(14:23):
then at least you're taking a stand somewhere. But if
I have to play Devil's advocate, I guess the things
you could point against it would be putting drove the
most deviation and scoring at this event last year, the
first time they played it off the team play drove
the least and out of deviation and scoring like ten percent,
So it was a blow average off the tea course,
above average putting course. Bryson is a good putter and
(14:44):
he's elite off the tea, but you still have to
get close with the approach and you have to make
those putts. So, um, if Bryson doesn't win at eleven
point seven K, the only way he really gets in
the optimal is if you get one of these scrubby
guys winning, because it's gonna be tough to fit in
Bryson and a ten gay guy, so that would be
the that would be my talking points for not locking
him and maybe just playing like fifties six. But it
(15:07):
does seem crazy not to get overweight here because it
does feel like a top ten is like the floor almost. Yeah.
I mean if he is, if you go one percent
Bryson and it rolls over on Thursday morning and he's
like thirty percent rostered, I think you're just like, well,
everyone else is paying the rake for me this week,
and if I don't win, it's just unlucky, like I
(15:27):
just because I think he is. Like if we're looking
at so if we agree Web as a world class golfer,
which I'm fine with. You know, I kind of been
waiting for the magic pixie dust to rub off of
his game because for a long time Web was a
pretty average PGA Tour golfer. But Pratton read Adecki, Hovland
sung jam, I mean, these guys are good golfers. But
(15:47):
you know I would I would, you know, Bryson in
the again in against them in a head to head
would be you know, minus one thirty or better pretty
much for for seventy two olds. So like I I
feel pretty good. I feel good about my decision before
I've even made it. Yeah, and I mean WEB. I
guess what I would say is like, if you were
to ask me in three years whether Webb would still
be a top ten player in the world, I wouldn't
(16:08):
necessarily buy it, But if you were to ask me
over the next three months if they'll play like one,
I think I will. And it was almost like we
saw that Mullinari a little heater right where he was
a very good golfer, top fifty player for a long time,
a very good top twenty player for a period of time,
and then kind of rode like a heater to becoming
elite for a short period and now it's kind of
on the downswing again. That's kind of I guess, like
(16:30):
in the next three years what I would expect at
a WEB. But he's definitely good in every facet of
the game, and that's one of the reasons that, especially
on FANDEL where it's a little easier to jam in
like Stars and Scrubs are multiple top in players, I
think he's more in play there. On DK, it's pretty
much a choice between the two of them, and I
prefer Bryson. Imagine Bryson will be owned. I don't think
(16:50):
I've ever seen a top price player get like above
thirty UM and maybe even thirty five anything but like
high stakes stuff. So I can see Bryson like capping
out at just because of how things have shook out historically.
But that would be the argument for Webb. And obviously
Web is one of the best putters in the world.
He is the best putter in this field over the
last a hundred rounds, and so you know putting is
(17:13):
going to drive a lot of deviation. We know it's
random week to week, but that long term it does
play out for the guys who are good, and so
if Web catches the upside week, then basically what you
see is what happened at RBC Heritage where he wins.
And if I get wiped out going all in on Bryson,
then I get wiped out going all in on Bryson.
I am I'm dec yeah, the other I don't think
(17:34):
it's hard to get see a scenario where you get
wiped out, right, like a miscut seems extremely low well
T eight and uh Adam had win wins at and
Web T three's I'm getting wiped out at that point,
Like that will be a that will be a minus
sevent scenario. Yeah, I mean it would depend on like
(17:56):
the six and six composition of your rosters, but it
wouldn't be great. But yeah, yeah yeah. Um So as
far as the other guys here above ten K, I
think they're all fine. I think my because I think
iron Play is gonna end up mattering so much here.
My would probably favor read the most. Um, but I
would help. Man. I'm seeing a rostered projection for Hoveland,
(18:20):
and uh, you know, maybe maybe the way I will
get exposure to Hoveland will be in Showdown and in
weekend golf, but it'll be it'll be kind of hard
to make that work with what I'm wanting to do
with my player pool overall. Yeah, Hoveland on that Sunday round,
he last like two and a half strokes spotting. I
swear it was all on the back nine. Just it's
gonna take some mental fortitude for me to go back
(18:41):
to the well with him tonight. But his ball striking
was elite off t approach game was on fire, like
he was generating tons of looks and that's definitely the
type of thing you want. I think maybe you could
fit Bryson Hoveland on a couple of teams but with them,
like you have like four total darts um for the
rest of the guys, and yeah, there's there's not like
(19:01):
there's not a lot to love about these other expensive guys.
There's Patrick Reed I think is in probably the best
form out of all of them, Hobbland the best t
de Green player. DECKI like his debut at RBC was
so shaky. Granted a lot of that was with the putter,
but it's hard for me to feel comfortable going back
to the wall with him as well. So UM, I
don't know like Bryson Webb paying up there, Patrick Reed,
(19:25):
maybe some Hobblin, but that would kind of be the order.
I'm probably off of Hadden entirely, and I'm uncommitted to Deckie.
But we'll see where I shake out. Uh so guys
in the next range song Jay I like him kind of.
Whatever the optimizer gives me, I don't think I'll mess
with that too much. You know. If I'm getting ument
of the optimizer, I'm fine with that. If I'm getting
(19:48):
I think I'm fine with that too. Um Ricky is
going to be an exclude for me, Bubba is going
to be an exclude, Kevin Na is going to be
an exclude. I think the now is fine. We have
him projected right now for like a like being on
of roster's like which with my ownership constraints, like the
way that I have it set up, it's gonna be
hard for me to get much of him. Uh Scheffler.
(20:10):
Though Scheffler feels like the one where our initial roster
projection might be too high. We have him right about
right now, and uh, I think after how much he
broke people's hearts last week with the Bogeys on the
par five's, I don't know if the public will be
as willing to forgive him. I don't know. So. I mean,
we saw it happened with Webb right where he missed
(20:32):
the cut his chalk, he comes back and he's even
more owned. We saw it happen with Sanjay, he misses
the cut, comes back, his chalk is more owned. So
I think people would go back to Scheffler. He did
get priced up, mostly because the field strength um drops
so much. But I think, like, if he's popping in
our model, then I think it's enough to say, hell,
(20:52):
he'll still get some ownership. Maybe it's a little aggressive
right now, but um, I guess the concerning point with
him was that he was losing a lot of those
strokes on approach around the green. It was he actually
gained strokes with a putter, averaging more than one stroke
game in the two rounds he did play, So he
played a lot worse than it looked, which is always
a little bit of a concern. Yeah, Harris English, I am,
(21:16):
I am. I mean do you want to do you
want to push back on Ricky Bubba or not? Do
you think any of them should be? They're not, They
won't be in my player pool. Do you think any
of them should be? Um, I don't think nah should be. Necessarily.
Ricky has has not been good at all in the
two events we've seen him. I guess if the ownership
it ends up being super low. If if a lot
(21:38):
of people don't roster him, um, and maybe you go
six Bryson and liketent of your teams are just balance contrarian.
Maybe you mix the match a couple of these guys.
Ricky obviously a world class putter if if he does
have to get hot, but it doesn't feel like a
great week for him, So um, I would say Sunjay
Tony fine. Now Bubba would be I think I would
(22:01):
include Bubba in my mix. Uh yeah, I'm not if
not interested at all. He sucks. He just his Bubba's
Bubba's best golf is um is past him though he
I think he is getting the slight bump from no
fans of the courses. I definitely think he enjoys playing
without them. Uh Rory Sabbatini, j T Post and these
guys feel mostly fine. Jason Day not not making it
(22:24):
in my mix, he seemed. Jason Day seems like he
is teetering on the edge of withdrawal just at any moment. Yeah,
Jason Day, he wasn't feeling good, so he tried to
take a proactive COVID desk before his weekend round. So um,
that tells you what what you need to know about
Jason Day. Um. I guess the other thing about Bubba
(22:45):
that came out last week was he said that he
was asked if there are any guys on tour he
likes playing with or doesn't like playing with, and he
basically said that like some guys playing with him was
a two stroke penalty. So now, in addition to having
to mega scout Bubba's course history, you also have to
scout his playing partners, So that's that's a tough one
for old bubba Um. I don't know. I think in
(23:07):
this range in general, there are solid guys for balanced
contraing teams. But if we're paying all the way up
for Bryson, I think the average costs of roster spot
it's like SEV seven point five. Yeah, so that that
doesn't leave you a ton to work with. And I
would say in general, this this range, like you said,
it's it's fine, but you're you're not. It's not like
(23:27):
there's a standout value that what's really what's really the
difference between you know, Tyler Duncan and uh and J T.
Boston like functionally nothing to me? Yeah, I mean I
would agree. So if we want to add a little
more color to some of these guys, like Doc Redman
has been striking the ball the cho chock God. Yeah,
(23:47):
he's forty two one on FanDuel now and what he
was like a hundred fifty last week? Um and Rufus
Peabody tattered him on the take cast that you did
with him. Really interesting. Listen if you are into golf
that or even fantasy golf in general, I think the
take Cast podcast Davis did with Rufus sheds a little
bit of light into one of the best professional sports
bettors in the world in the PGA circuits and so um.
(24:10):
I know he said he liked Doc a lot, but
I don't know if he's liking him a lot at
forty to one. And but like the underlying metrics, last
three rounds are are great and if you are banking
on that stuff heavier because of the restart, then it's
gonna make him project even a little bit ahead. Lucas
Glover hero rounds on Lover. Glover is going to be
a big part of my player pool this week for sure. Yeah,
(24:31):
Glove Glover is another one of those guys surprisingly almost
like a poor man's web. Like I think people think
of Glover as a terrible putter, but over the last
like a hundred rounds, he's actually been a pretty solid putter.
He games with Glover for sure. It's a very fluid
situation as it as it pertains to him. There are
(24:52):
other great plays down here though, I mean Eric Van
Roy and e v R like like he is so
much he is a better player than and you know
he's a better player than r c B. Then Adam
hadwin than J. T. Boston. Like e v R is
like a for real good player, so I will be
extremely happy on him. Yeah, and like r c B.
I think we were talking about two three weeks ago.
(25:14):
I forget if it was the Colonial, but he was
like seven K and less than five percent owned, and
we were like this, this dude can go low in
certain events, like to play him, had a cheap price
and get some exposure to him, but now you're paying
like a premium. He went absolutely him on the weekend
as well. He's another one of those guys. I feel
like he got priced up because his performance was just
(25:35):
this massive charge on Sunday, almost entirely off the T two,
So that was pretty pretty epic. But um yeah, I
feel like it's a coin flip between our CB and
e v R on a week to week basis, and uh,
if you're gonna be flipping coins, and you might as
well take the guy that fewer people roster I'm playing.
I'm playing both of them for certain. I'll tell you this,
I'll never play Brendan Todd again after watching him hack
(25:59):
it around and when he made the seven on the
par four like, that's just not a guy that I
h that I need to be exposing myself to the
most part, Yeah, well good for him, Good for good
for Brendan Todd. We are going to go ahead and
head into a break here real quick on the Daily
Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. When we return,
(26:19):
we're going to dive even deeper throughout the player pool
here on FanDuel and DraftKings for daily fantasy purposes. See
you guys on the other side of Break sports grid
dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as
our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
(26:41):
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more.
Want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to Break here
on the Daily Little Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm
Davids Mannick joined by Colin Drew as we continue to
break down the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club.
(27:05):
Some pretty interesting name. It is in k Range And
if you are going to be doing the Bryson will
definitely need to being these dudes, right, So you know,
Brandon Grace Kisner probably not a guy I will find
myself rostering too much math Verick McNeely HV. Three Isn't
Isn't Joseph Bramlett one of the Outlaw Tour heroes. I swear,
(27:27):
I swear he was playing on those Outlaw Tour events
in Arizona. I don't know about that. I don't recognize
him from the Outloat Tour, but I think his form
on the corn Ferry tour um was pretty epic over
the past five events leading into last week at the Travelers,
and he ended up having a really good ball striking
week at the Travelers. It feels like a premium price,
(27:49):
So I'm not super interested in him unless it's at
like single digit ownership sub five percent I think would
be the level um. But yeah, maybe he played outlaw
to events too if the guys grinding the corn Ferry
Tory could be granting other stuff. Um, I think Brendon
times more in play than you do. Uh. I'm look,
he doesn't have to win the event to be in
(28:10):
great lineups for a week long. And yeah, it was
a good opportunity to get off of him in round
four showdown, knowing that the pressure was gonna be on
him and that he was gonna be like owned, especially
if you're gonna be going heavy and DJ. But he
struck the ball really well last week. He was basically
until that triple, he was hitting every ferry everything. Can't
I can't watch someone lay up on a par five
(28:31):
and roster them willingly like it like it would be
better for me to It would honestly be better for
me to not have watched, because I just I don't
think I can ever play him again. Yeah, because I
think he was good and generally, like you said, if
you're playing Bryson, you're playing a lot of guys in
this price range. This price range becomes pretty important. Uh,
it doesn't look like a ton of people are going
(28:53):
to roster him right now. Maybe maybe more will than
as the week goes on, but he's popping as a
decent value in the projections that honest roster percent. So
I think Brendan Todd is a fine play, especially in
like a single entry. I think going like Bryson Todd
and then trying to find the value place rounded out
would be Um, you know, my first look at how
I would start to think about lineup, I think one
(29:15):
dude who might get the arbitrary matic bump is gonna
be Scott Stallings uh so, because I knew that Scott
Stallings um had like transformed himself into like a like
a ripped dude, but I don't think I realized just
how much until I saw him on the broadcast last week.
This dude is like a workout warrior. Now I'm in.
(29:37):
You sold me, Scott Stallings. So you're just gonna stack
your roster with guys who have changed their body image
over the past five years. Yeah, yeah, well the last
last five months. Really, I mean not because I think
I'm gonna be trying obviously to to get you know,
capture some top ten equity in my lineups for guys
who are not super popular and you know af o
(29:58):
far projections like I mean, the data golf projections do
drive ownership because you know, a huge not a huge chunk,
but a decent chunk of the player pool is using
them to generate their lineups. And if there's guys you
have to adjust, you know, that is that is pretty helpful.
I don't think I've ever seen Brian Steward play a shot,
but he's one of those guys that in Showdown projections.
(30:20):
He's always just priced a little bit too cheap, and
he I feel like one one round every week. He
always has like some hero sixty four round that ends
up playing big in showdown. Yeah, Scott Scott Stallings. He
he gave me like a brief glimmer of hope that
it's gonna make like another fifteen K because he's bogey
the seventeen and then after watching Hoblin, like miss all
(30:41):
these pots, Stallings rolls in a Bertie from like thirt
on eighteen just absolute dagger to my round four Showdown yesterday.
But he's one of those guys I feel like he
has some of those low rounds when you get on
easy course, it's almost like a if it never ends
up coming to fruition. And that's why people don't roster
him because it's like a once a year type thing.
But it's almost like a Matt Everything where it's just
(31:02):
like all of a sudden, you open the leaderboard and
he's like minus five type of the lead. And I
don't know Stallings, I think he's fine. I'm not super
enthused about it, but I understand why you might boost
him a little bit. I agree with you on Stewart.
It feels like he gets hot with the putter for
a couple of rounds here and there, which is nice
for showdown. Nobody ever plays him. This is the type
of course and type of field. Maybe people play him
(31:22):
a little bit, but um, definitely a guy there. I
guess Patrick Rogers another guy. I think it's pretty interestingly
showing up. Yeah. Yeah, And if you look back like
five years, this guy is one of the top ranked
amateurs in the world and had some flashes of success,
nothing really sustained um and a pretty weak field, so
(31:43):
I don't know. I mean, like it's not just lastly
winning last year it was like West Roach on the leaderboard,
Cameron tru Galley on the leader boards. So as far
as quality golfers and the ability to to get hot
and win, I feel like Patrick Rogers is right up there.
So in that range. I think those are some of
the names I'm most interested in. Todd. I thinks number one,
what are you doing with Keegan? What are you doing
with Keegan Man the course we're putting drives at all?
(32:05):
What are we doing? Yeah? What I mean, what is
what is it? What is the optimizer spitting out for Keegan?
If you if you JM Brayson, I'm gonna okay, I'll
run it right now with my steadings left over from
Round four showdown. I'm gonna guess I get a bunch
of him. He's priced at sevent draft kings. He might
be a guy that if you were including him in
(32:25):
your player pool for DFS, I would. I would bet
him out right, because if you're if you're just making
that leap that he's not gonna go full Kegan, you are,
you are making a leap that's a he's gonna have,
you know, a really a really good round, not getting
as much of him as I thought, only about five
PC in two and fifteen lineup, So but I have
I have shuffled up pretty high. Yeah, I'd be fine
(32:47):
playing Keegan at five percent. I think that sounds about right.
I was a little concerned. You're gonna say he was
popping in like us, like Scheffler was last week. You know,
the the guy who's getting the guy who is mega
popping in the projections down here right now out without
any big time edits is Sebastian Monos because he is quintessential, like, uh,
you know, he's just gonna be bad for ten straight
(33:08):
rounds and then fire back to back sixty three. Yeah. Yeah,
I would say one of the things that I'm gonna
be trying to do this week is, I know a
lot of these guys who are like like like Keegan
or like Scheffler, A lot of these guys who are
good t green, but like vaalse Hold with the putter
is not very good. They end up popping, they end
up being okay DK scores. But I do feel I
(33:30):
feel like put is gonna matter a bit more this
week than maybe how our default projections factored in, which
is treating it pretty similar on a week week basis.
So I'm gonna knock bad putters just because I think
you're gonna have to put really well. Um So, guys
like he can, I'll probably downgrade a little bit. Kyle Stanley,
you're not playing him. I think I'll still play them,
(33:50):
but it's something I'm gonna downgrade a little bit. Matters
on the price range too, because um, like we said,
like top twenty is obviously what you're looking for in
this like seven K range, and Kyle Stanley is right
down there. Uh he's the candidate I think though, to
be one of the highest on value golfers of the week.
So that would fly a bit in the face of
what we're trying to to do, especially in Bryson bills.
(34:11):
It would be really easy to go Bryson, Stanley, Stanley
with a good showing last week, Um, we'll see, we'll see.
I feel like I should say no Stanley, but um,
we'll see. Going the other way. Does that mean that
our our boy m Thompson, Michael Pompson, Does that mean
as as one of the best long term putters on tour?
(34:32):
Are we are we jamming? Are we jamming him and
giving him a little bit extra credit? And the optimizer
this week? Well, I mean I think the credit you're
looking for is like one percent ownership. Like I'm all
about that this week, especially if you lock Bryson. So yeah,
I mean I think Michael Thompson would be in play.
Smashing Moono's definitely in play. Maybe ownership follows him a
(34:55):
little bit. Um and trying to navigate through some of
the chalk. We talked a little bit about total roster
cap as far as how we build some of our lineups,
and I think that's a really good feature to use
this week, And I might be even more aggressive. Most weeks,
I use it as like a dupe avoid, but I
might be even more aggressive this week just because of
the like votility and randomness associate with the event. Yeah,
(35:19):
I think, I think I like that idea. Um One
one thing that I started to do in Round four
showdown is two avoid the problem of you know, your
your two line up being so different than your first
is creating like a men to group of like you know,
(35:41):
maybe like your fifteen or twenty like absolute like these
are the dudes that, uh that you really want to
play or whatever, and and using that to you know,
get like I guess it. At the same time, it
kind of fixes the clumping issue but also prevents your
two fine up from just like draw Stone dead. Yeah,
(36:02):
I think that you could use less shuffle and more volatility.
I think would be another approach that might get away
from some of the clumping that you talk about, But
it also just would introduce more bad players into your
player pool, which which is is fine. Like, I I
think getting it. I guess we can go right now
just for a little bit before we get back into
(36:22):
the player pool into round four showdowns. So one of
the things during this like COVID break where it's the
golf is the only game in town. We have been
doing ownership projections four Round four. I've been pushing those
out late on Saturday night typically, and so that's been
another feature I've used to try to differentiate the lineups
in in the Round four showdown, Like I'm not trying
to dodge like DJ when he's at the top of
(36:43):
the board, but i still want unique ways to build
with him in there, and so having those ownership projections
is really good for that. I would also say especially
weeks like last week, weeks like this week where it's
a birdie fest, like there are gonna be guys shooting
minus eight, so we saw huge rounds from guys who
are way down the leaderboard, and all the ownership funnels
to the top of the leaderboard. So you don't want
(37:03):
to fade DJ outright when he's like too off the
lead on Sunday and he's one of the best players.
It is price absurdly cheap, but like, you can't play
all the chalk and it's not gonna be all the
top and guys that go low, so you gotta mix
and match for round four. And I think the ownership projections.
We have a daily road will help with that. Yeah,
and I mean for for this specific round for and
(37:26):
I I kind of thought that the only reasonable way
to do it was to play either one of Todd
and zero percent of DJ, or DJ and zero percent
of Todd, because first of all, the two stroke lead
had to have been overcome by DJ. You know, you're
projecting those birdie points, those end up being meaningful. And
if Todd, and if you are going heavy on DJ
(37:49):
and he is able to overcome those two strokes, that
means that Todd's probably not having a particularly good round. Um.
Sounds like you did not agree with that assessment. So
probably something that I'm missing there. Uh No, I mean
I think that's fair. But you could see a scenario
where DJ shoots minus six, Todd shoots minus five like
(38:09):
Todd wins the event, DJ still did well like DJ
because Todd was such a good price. Yeah, Um, and
DJ was a good price too. It was the other
thing because he had made like a big Saturday move.
The guys who end up being good values are oftentimes
the guys make Saturday moves because it seems like they
priced things at some point on Saturday so if a
guy makes a huge charge, he ends up being like
a really good value at least in the opt though, Um,
(38:32):
I think it's more about the overall roster than it
is like an individual choice between those two guys. But
I think if you're right on being like all on DJ,
then it you give yourself more outs. And I know
you did really well in the MINIMAC season that strategy,
so there's definitely married to that too. Yeah. Um, okay, everyone,
we are going to go ahead and head into our
final break here on the Daily Road to Hour on
(38:55):
Sports Grade TV. When we return, we will get a
little bit more into the very bottom of the you'll
the the seven K six K punts you'll need with
Bryson this week, and then also talk the betting markets
on fan Duel. Maybe we will find a couple of
plus e V numbers in there so that you can
bet Bryson and you know, still profitably hit a couple
of other guys deeper down the betting markets as well.
(39:20):
Sports grid dot Com Betting Insights and Entertainment at your
fingertips seven as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back break
(39:41):
here on sports Gride TV. This is the Daily Rodo
Hour with Davis Maddock and Colin Drew finally rounding up
you know, the the stone punt takes Uh tom Ogi
seven k I. You know, of my rosters, I think
is Uh is my projection for Ogie right now. I mean,
this dude is this dude is just the best. He
(40:04):
just he's gonna wedge his way around. He's gonna make
all the birdies. That's an official prediction. He's He's probably
the last guy in like the single entry that I
feel good about clicking onto a roster. And there's some
guys like six point seven case six point k that
I'm comfortable rostering and like twenty max type builds. But yeah,
(40:24):
I think I think Hog is the last guy that
he'd be like the last man in if I had
to cut off my player pool somewhere. For single entry,
we've got a nineteen percent o twenty, I probably cap
my ownership right around there. I think field percent we've
got around five right now, so probably an overweight play
for HOGI there we go overweight play on noted take
(40:44):
cast guest Hollywood HOGI you you you love to see it?
Um Sam Burns a dude who I think will make
the player pool. Lanto Griffin another guy? Do you want it?
Do you want to out your old pal Jason Duffner
at here in Detroit? It no, no, no Dufner for me? Uh.
I mean I think in general, probably I usually cut
(41:06):
my player pool off the guys with like fifteen to
twenty odds. This weekend they let it fly a little
bit more, depending how aggressive I get on Bryson. So
I don't know. There's there's some names here. I have
some interest in Tyler Duncan, Taylor Gooch at the Flat
seven K I think are okay? Plays you said Sam Burns,
I think he's in play there. Matthew Wolf and Aaron
Wise I think are both pretty interesting as well. Uh,
(41:28):
deep prices on both those guys. Wolf didn't play well
last week. Why has actually had a decent showing last
week for what seems like the first time and forever.
And you're kind of getting a stone pretty close to
Stone and him price on him. So those were some
of the guys in that high six k that I
was at least drawn to a little bit. In general,
probably play more of this range than I do on
a week to week basis. Yeah, I think this range
(41:51):
is going to end up being important because you know,
Bryson is Bryson is so expensive and we we all
want access to that. Gonna have to gonna have to
nuke my boy Luke list off of here. He just
you know, I'm not I'm not going to allow myself
to be hurt again. But Adam Shank is going to
make that list to me for for sure. Um, Danny
Willett is coming in crazy high in the projections right now,
(42:16):
and generally that is not the case. So I'm wondering
if that's just a function of field strength. Like Danny
Willett is always priced down here and generally that makes
him unplayable. But in this course, you know, he's priced
next to uh, you know, last year's winner Nate Lashley.
So so maybe maybe he actually does end up being
a solid play here. Now. Yeah, I mean I think
(42:38):
that's really that's really it. He's not like eighteen percent
to teach money. He's kind of praised or projected maybe
like a seven K seven point two kke golf for
an these prices six point six. So combine that with
the fact that you're trying to slam price it in
and I think and you know, one percent ownership on
will it. I think that's why you're seeing things like that.
I think it makes sense. I can't really not to play. Uh.
(43:01):
Cameron Tryn Galley, I think is another guy that's popping
a little bit as far as another uh like six
point six K golfer had a really good showing here
last year and said the top five. I'm not sure
if that will draw ownership, just because Trin Galley is
not like a guy that people like to roster um, right,
So yeah, I guess those are some of the names
that kind of jumped out to me a little bit.
(43:22):
And then Windham Clark was another one guy that can
hit the battle mile and can get really hot lights
out with the putter. So I mean that's what he does, right,
bombs did and puts it. Bombs and putts. That's all
he does. I mean, that's that's kind of what you're
looking for this week a little bit. I mean, you
want the guys who obviously approach is gonna be pretty important.
But um, I'm seeing stuff playable down here this week.
(43:43):
And I don't usually see that these guys would be
like at most ten percent place, but in probably five
percent to be to be honest. But some stuff down
here I think I can get on board with. Finally, Yeah,
I mean Matt Jones at UH. Note note for those
of you who are using the Daily Road Optimizer to
create winning fantasy golf lineups, and I expect that all
(44:05):
of you should be doing uh, gonna just go ahead
and place the nice little exclude click on Steve Stricker
at dred UH. The data Golf projections. They have their reasons,
whatever they might be, but I am I'm not falling
for it. Steve Stricker not going to be in the
player pool for your boy this week. There's a gletch man.
(44:26):
There's something in there, some some baried data. Stricker winning
like Senior Tour events, getting capture or something. Yeah, I
I assume that is what it is. I assume that
it's that he is crushing on on the Champions Tour
or something. Let's see the absolute cheapest playable guy. Probably
that's me. I was gonna say, Bronson burgoon a Sea. Yeah,
(44:48):
I think Aaron Badley. They're both six point two k right, yes, yeah,
they're both down there at six point two. K Uh.
That is uh, that's about it as low. It's as
low as we're gonna get, you know. That's uh, we're
not they're not We're not gonna out VJ saying here, yeah,
we're not touting him. The only other two guys have
ever even rostered probably Roster Brian Gay like once or
twice um, and then Bill Hass like five years ago.
(45:13):
I mean, I can't I can't say that I've never
rostered Lucas Beregard or Johnson Wagner or uh Zach Sucher,
Ted Potter Jr. Hank La Boydia. These guys have all
found their ways into my player pool from here there,
and I'm not proud of it, but it is what
it is. Yeah. So he think y'alla is back in
the field again this week too. Didn't debut very well
(45:34):
or didn't fare very well on his tour debut. Um.
We talked about him brief last week just in the
Data Golf Amateur rankings. He's not nearly as highly tired
of the prospect as like the crew we saw come
last year's so until he does something, I'll probably be
off him. But fun. Yeah, Um, alright, So getting into
the betting markets, um, you know, okay, we already talked
(45:56):
at the beginning of the show a little bit about
our boy brance Sin. I can't I can't take that
wager back now, it's too late, it's already been made.
We have we have purchased Bryson shares at at seven
to one. It's down to six to one now on
the fandual Sports book. Specifically, there are a couple other
guys who I think that you could wager, um, Scotty
(46:17):
Scheffler actually showing up at thirty four to one as
a plus e V wager. Data Golf has it closer
to to one as what his number should be. Yeah,
and I guess for anybody who is using the fantasy
projections or the betting tools, it's worth noting that Data
Golf did have data from that charity event in Dallas,
and that is factored into the projections. Scheffler won that event,
(46:38):
and it was a decently strong field. It wasn't a
sanctioned pro event, and there's not like underlying shot link
data for it. Obviously, and I guess you could question
how motivated some of these guys were, like playing for
it versus playing for charity. It's baked in. So maybe
he's getting a boost because and I know he's getting
a boost because of that. You just can kind of
decide how much you want to either account for that
(47:00):
or disregard it and adjust the projection accordingly. He's still
gonna be a good play in DFS, just maybe not
quite as like screaming of the value if you don't
trust that data. And I'm on the fence with that,
so I usually dock him a little bit. Uh, Tom
HOGI I think hundred fifty one your boy popping the
best price available on Vandel sports book out of any
of the books. So, Tom HOGI I think is a
(47:21):
great bet on FanDuel um DT one and then if
you want to go I guess a little bit deeper.
I think Taylor Googe we talked about him a little
bit two to one. He's projected for Fantasy in a
similar range to guys that are priced much cheaper on Fandel,
like hundred fifty two one guys. So you're getting an
extra sixty two one for Gooch and I don't know,
(47:42):
if you're gonna fire darts, you might as well look
for an extra sixty two one on your beat for sure.
I mean, I'm I'm looking to fire darts for sure
because I've I've already kind of priced myself out of
that top, you know, the top end of the market.
And you know, we saw Nate Lashly, We saw Nate
Lashly do it last year, and really not going to
surprise me if we get you know, just a total
(48:05):
random you know up there on Sunday. Now, not not
saying for sure that that you know, random person is
going to end up winning, but you know what, lastly
minus twenty five last year a multi a multi stroke win.
So I think Cogi had a hundred and fifty two one. Um.
I think Sebastian Monos add a hundred to one or better.
I think that one is um, you know, I think
(48:27):
that one is kind of reasonable. There are some other dudes,
um Eric van Roy, and I wish maybe that he
was a little bit deeper, but I really like him.
I think there are hundred of ones out there. On
HB three. Lucas Glover is another one. Uh, you guys
can tell I just I love to bet. I love
to bet these guys deep so much. Um And the
(48:49):
the one, the one that Data Golf wants you to
bet obviously is strictor I'm not gonna do that one
to myself. If you can get Matthew Wolf deeper than
a hundred of one noted already winner on the PGA
two were I kind of I kind of like him
as well. Yeah, And I think one of the big
things is this week it seems like, you know, we
we don't really think there's a lot of value on
the top end guy. It's just because Bryson does have
(49:11):
pretty dominant win equity. I think both of us are
a bit I mean, you're even higher on Bryson than
the markets are. I'm probably closer to the betting markets
that I'm on Data Golf as far as bryces win equity,
and that that kind of kills some of the value. So,
like Headeki, I think Data Golf makes is like a
decent wager, but that's probably a pass for me just
because I value Bryson a little bit higher there. And
(49:34):
then the same thing with Scheffler, like I don't quite
value his winning that charity event. So UM in general,
it seems like a week where it's longer shots. Usually
when I bet these longer shots, like the three Aaron
Badley types, I'm also betting them to top twenty, just
because there's a lot of correlation between the book prices
on outrights and the book prices on top twenty. Obviously,
(49:54):
these guys are three for a reason. They're not gonna
win very often at all. But the twenty bets you're
still maybe getting like ten to one, fifteen to one
on those, and those are gonna come to fresh and
a bit more. So. That's kind of how I would
go about this week, And it seems like a week
where maybe those top twenty bets are a better place
than the outright betting market. There's a lower big there
anyways too. And you know, as we talked about on
(50:17):
the show last week, when you haven't hit an outright
winner in a couple of weeks, those T twenty markets
they start to become a little bit more appealing, just
so you're not checking your your sports betting balanced there
on Monday morning or on Sunday afternoon. If you get
settled out earlier in art, you're not mad at yourself.
Is there anything worse than like when all of Twitter wins,
that's literally nothing, you got like nothing, no, And I'm like, great, awesome,
(50:41):
great there. I mean I made some good plus e
V wagers and uh, of course I'm returning nothing because
Dustin Dustin Johnson is one of the best golfers in
the world, and uh, you know he got there, so
good for him. Uh one and done. This week. My
thought is I will probably just what do you think
about using EBB because I missed what I've missed this
(51:03):
sickening Web run for most of it, and I just
just get him out of the way and this will
this will be a nice hedge for my DFS exposures,
which should likely be zero on Web. Yeah, so it's
pretty interesting. If you're ahead, like right now in a segment,
if you use WEB, then I think, and you're towards
(51:23):
the top, you need to consider using Bryson because he's
such a dominant favor to win. Um, if you're behind,
but you got like good finishers at the other events
that I actually think Web is a great leverage play
because you know, none of the leaders can can win
with WEB. So if you can pick up a million
bucks from Webb, you know, you're gaining on of the
guy's ahead of you who have banked his win already,
(51:45):
and you can't say the same about anybody else. Like
you know, if if you're playing the HITDECKI or Patrick
Read or something like that, who might be other options
that are live to win the event and they win,
You're probably only gaining on the guys um. And so
I think Web is like an in single average play.
If you're behind, hope that he goes on like a
heater um. And I'm assuming it's gonna be in the
(52:05):
field this week. His withdrawal last week wasn't for COVID
symptoms himself, it was because the family member had tested positive.
It is precautionary UM. So I'm assuming he's in the field,
but you obviously want to check that there's no reason
to be concerned about his health though. Alright, everyone, thank
you very much for listening to the Daily road To
Hour here on Sports Grade TV and the Daily road
To Going for the Green Fantasy Golf Podcast. Everyone, good
(52:27):
luck at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and I hope that
we are recapping a bright and day Shambo this time
next week. Sports grid dot Com Betting insides and entertainment
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(52:49):
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Enjoy the show and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:21):
and welcome to the Daily Roado Hour here on Sports
Crede TV. This also doubles as the Daily Roado Going
for the Green Fantasy Golf Podcast. I'm Davis Maddock joined
by Colin Drew breaking down the Rocket Mortgage Classic at
the Detroit Golf Club. We just got done with a
pretty exciting event. Uh, Dustin Johnson wins the Travelers Championship.
(00:44):
Pretty good, pretty good week for me at the Travelers
champ But you have didn't cash the Dustin Johnson to
one ticket on the Fandel Sports Book, like I know
a lot of people were. That was somehow, somehow DJ
one was a really chalky number. But the week before
Drew by he was forty two one and I hadn't
even better price, and uh didn't didn't get the win there.
His number cuts in half, the public is on him.
(01:06):
That's always a little frustrating. I mean, there's nothing worse,
right if a guy. You're on a guy one week,
like a week too early, and then his number gets
slashed in half, so you don't see the value anymore
than he wins. It feels like, I mean, it's like
stuff like that's gonna happen from time to time. It's
gonna happen the other way too, um and I think
we saw that the week before with Web Simpson where
he was available at a little bit bigger price. So
(01:26):
the sword cuts both ways. But it's definitely frustrating to
be on the bad end of it. Yeah, it is,
so uh, you know, no huge observations for me. Last week,
UM DFS is still alive. Brandon Todd was owned in
Round four Showdown. I took approximately zero percent in my
(01:46):
mm E mix, and watching that round, watching every shot
that he and DJ took, felt felt pretty vindicated in
that decision. I played it a little bit differently than you.
I had a little bit of exposure to both, but
not too many line ups were we're both on the
same roster, and so that was kind of how I
went about differentiating thing. Man, the golf tilt was was
(02:07):
serious for me. Yesterday Victor Holand was playing lights out
t green on the back nine, like he had seven
birdie or eagle puts within twenty ft and couldn't make
a single one. The only birdie he rolled in on
the back nine was after missing an eagle put on
that driveable part four from fifteen ft and so you
got that one birdie. He doubled the part five. If
(02:29):
he makes one birdie, Davis, one more birdie on the
back nine, I'm winning a hundred K. Still came out
five k ahead on the week, so it's not too bad.
But man, I was slamming some tilt beers yesterday. I was, well,
it was. It was an amazing week for till In,
for you know, for everyone. Because Scotti Scheffler misses the cut. Uh,
you know, a couple other really high owned guys missed
(02:51):
the cut, like right on the number. Matthew Fitzpatrick was
one that our projections really liked. So he was a unique,
a unique in the field that that didn't make the cut.
But we did have one great unifying moment. Some j
makes a bogey on fifteen has to get a birdie
coming in, comes down to eighteen. He's got to make
one birdie to get inside the cut line, and somehow
(03:13):
darts on eighteen to make the pun. That was that's
I mean, that is just uh, you know, it's the
most ideal that that's the height of pg A dfs
for sure. Yeah, my main slate was was not great.
I had some good teams in the lottery style tournaments
right at the Green Millie Maker, but in general it
was a low six or six week. Not many teams
were able to get all six through the cut. I
(03:33):
think it was sub five percent. Like you said, a
lot of chockey names missing. There was also the cut
line sweat, like wondering whether or not those minus three
guys we're gonna get through or it was gonna move
to minus four ended up moving to minus four, and
there were there were some popular names right there on
that minus three number two. So all in all, the
the experience definitely delivered. From the sweat perspective, the results
(03:54):
were good, but man, it's it's tough. You don't get
any cracks at six figures, so when they don't go
you away it's fresh. Well, I mean, you get plenty
of clocks. You get, you get plenty of cracks at it,
especially assuming NFL Showdown is uh is going to return,
but we are we are both Oh I was gonna
say yeah, I mean that was another thing. The COVID
(04:16):
testing obviously pre tournament, huge storyline, whether or not they
were going to even have the event. Um with the
I don't want to call it an outbreak, but like
the mini outbreak that was happening, and Brooks keptco Withdrew
because of his caddie testing positive and the negative. You
had Webb Simpson who Withdrew two of the top five
or six favorites in the field going into that, and
(04:36):
then you mid event you had stuff happening as well,
Dylan for Telly pulling out, you had Bud Collie pulling
out and rest in Peace, Yeah, Denny mc potts pulling out,
and then Jason Day going out like waiting on the
results for a test and I'm asking to go out
as a single. So UM, I don't know. I'm not
going to get into the whole like my feelings on
how the tour should handle it, because nobody really cares
(04:58):
or wants to hear that. But from a DFS perspective,
especially in some of these showdown stuff like you've got
to be staying on top of things before a lock,
because it seems reasonable that we're gonna be dealing with
this on a weekweek basis, at least to some degree.
Maybe not two of the top six favorites, but it's
something that's here at least for the foreseeable future. Yeah. Uh, well,
it's gonna be a little bit different this week in
(05:20):
Detroit because the field is not near as strong. So
Bryson and Web are really the only two, you know,
top like let's say, let's say top fifteen ish players
in the world. I guess the deck, he's there, but
then it drops off pretty quick to hat and read
hobblin song Jay. So not not nearly as strong of
a field as we have had the first three weeks back,
(05:43):
you know, going to going to Detroit in the middle
of a global pandemic. Don't think I can blame these
dudes for not wanting to trek out there this this
golf course that they're playing the Rocket Mortgage Classic at,
though uh it is this is a Munich course, right,
like what Nate Lashly won at. I believe minus twenty
six last year Like this, this is just going to
(06:04):
be an absurd scoring week on Draft Kings and FanDuel. Yeah.
I mean basically, if you ever wanted to see how
like the Tour, if you think about the toughest course
in your like local area, and you ever wanted to
see public and you wanted to see how the tour
players would tear that apart, I mean it's basically what
you're getting this week. Yeah, they were. I mean, like
the cut line. I mean, you're you have to fire
(06:25):
super low even to make the cut, and then minus
ten is not even really gonna get you. Instead the
top ten, you're not gonna be flirting with anything, so
you need you guys are gonna be shooting like five
under every day and that might not even be good
enough to win. Yeah. So this golf course has three
reachable par fives. There's a par four which had a
forty eight percent Bertie rate on it last year. Uh.
(06:47):
The so I mean just they're they're not really difficult
holes here. Uh And and you know, putting is really
going to be a huge explanatory variable this week. Yeah.
I mean, your boy Bryson is gonna be like going
driver nine iron into some of these, it's gonna be crazy.
And like you said that the scoring is gonna be
super low. Whenever the scoring is low, it means that
(07:08):
a lot of the deviation is explained by putting. Obviously,
the top T Green guys last year, they were there
on the leaderboard, they were inside the top ten, the
top fifteen, couple, inside the top five, but it was
the top putters who actually won the event. So, um,
almost isn't even gonna matter if your guys just lights
out T Green because if the putter is not there,
then it's it's not gonna be good enough for for dfs.
(07:29):
And like we said, like putting week to week has
a lot of volatility to it, so it does mean
there could be some randomness, could be some weird names,
some Nate Lashlely type names who win this event, right,
And I mean any event where we are going to
get you know, large results that are largely based off
of putting. Um that to me is first off, I'm
(07:50):
gonna want to take more stands in dfs. But also
I'm like at the top but at the bottom, like
I'm gonna be willing to play dude who I have
never played before, pretty much. Yeah, I think that's definitely
the case. You can you've got to figure out like
what your macro approaches. But it does seem easier to
try to fade like value Chalk plays just because it
(08:11):
doesn't matter if they play really well. They have to
play really well and run hot with the putter and
so um that's a little bit different than some of
the courses that reward the slightly more predictable t Green
skill set some of the more difficult courses on tour,
and I feel like we saw some of that last
week with you know, guys like Nieman who played well,
but uh the scoring was super low and he didn't
put as well as he had the week prior. So
I don't know that at the top on Vanduel Sports Book,
(08:33):
like you said, Bryson six and a half to one,
Web Simpson twelve to one, Hideki and Turtle Haddon at
fourteen to one, Patrick Reed, Victor Hoblind at sixteen to one,
song j m at twenty one, and Ricky Fowler. I
don't know if you still consider him a top player
in the world, but at least in public perception he's
up there. So it is not as strong with field
as we've seen the past three weeks. Well let's let's
just go ahead and break the ice here. I did
(08:56):
bet Bryson at at seven now six to one on
Vandal sports book, but I was kind of just looking
at it and I'm like, you know what, he is
just gonna have so many birdie opportunities at this course,
so many eagle opportunities. I just like he's got to
win this event more than the market is suggesting. Like
he is truly the only world class player in this field.
(09:18):
I know people love Web Simpson right now, but Bryson
is better than Web. I think Bryson is better than
the Web two. But Web is world class right now.
He definitely doesn't get the respect I think he deserves
for his results over the previous year. Um, but yeah,
I mean Bryson the class of the field six and
a half to one. I think when you look at
the field and you look at Bryson's ascension, it makes sense.
(09:40):
I guess the randomness of putting is like he feels
like a stone lock to top ten. The randomness of
putting is what can keep him from winning or give
somebody else the chance to kind of upset him. But
it feels like a stone lock Bryson's top ten that
should be like min Yeah, I mean I would probably
bet top five and uh and top twenty as well.
(10:02):
So right now, Data Golf gives him over an eight
chance or chance to make the cut, fifty chance to
top twenty percent, chance to t five, nine percent win
equity that Data Golf is giving Bryson that, Um, I
think that's as high as anyone I've ever seen other
(10:22):
than Rory. I think that he's the only other dude
who I've seen really get to that degree. Yeah, I'm
try I'm trying to remember, like DJ during Prime DJ
heater RBC Canadian Open with the week field up, there
might have been pretty close. Um, And that's that's kind
of the comp that I'm thinking about this week, where
it does feel like there's there's Bryson and there's a
(10:44):
big gap and then there's like a bunch of Scrouse
kind of behind that. So, um, a strategy perspectiveson and
just in general, UM, I assume he'll be popular like
ownership or something like that. But UM, I don't know that.
I don't think the bet is outrageously bad. It's just
the amount of putting that goes into this event could
(11:05):
keep you well if you if you Unfortunately, if you
are betting Bryson, such as myself, you can't really bet Hofland,
you can't really bet Scotty Scheffler, you can't really bet
Doc Redman, can't really bet Lucas Glover. Like you kind
of just have to be like, well, I guess this
is the decision that I've made, and I'm betting Bryson
and deep shots only, which is generally not the way
(11:27):
that that I go about betting on these events. Like
I would like to bet Michael Thompson in this event.
I'd like to bet Kyle Stanley in this event, but
it kind of seems like I've priced myself out of
that one. Yeah, And I think you kind of take
the same thing, like hideki Um seems like it in
this field. It seems like a decent enough um price
on him and Sun jay N as well, like guys
(11:49):
that you feel like you're getting okay prices. I'm considering
the talent in the field, but like you said, Um,
there's only so much you can squeeze. And obviously some
of the data gull stuff thinks the Bryson bett might
be negative expected you um and some of these other
guys being positive, but obviously so your opinion disagrees with that.
So if you're gonna make Bryson six and a half
to one or better, then there's definitely no value in
the kind of that mid tier and you gotta you
(12:11):
gotta drop to the hift one guys. And I don't
remember the price I'm lastly last year, but I'm yeah,
he would have been crazy deep. Yeah, I mean Bryson,
you know, he's gaining strokes everywhere but around the green,
but I don't necessarily see him being around the green
all that often in uh in this event. Yeah yeah,
(12:32):
So so like shot, he actually hit a couple of
decent wedge shots, you know when he was because he
was in the feature group last week with Roring. I
remember being kind of impressed, like he had that our
motion he has is so funky. I just always assume
that's uh that his wedge shots are going to be terrible.
But we are gonna we are gonna go ahead and
head into break here real quick on the daily Road
(12:52):
to hour on Sports Grade TV. When we return, we're
going to head over to dfside head going away from
the betting Mark for a little it, and we're going
to break down the Rocket Mortgage, the Rocket Mortgage Classic
at the Detroit Golf Club from a daily fantasy golf perspective,
starting with Bryson and heading all the way down the
pool and talking some larger macro strategy as well. Sports
(13:17):
grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
seven as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com, Hello everyone, and welcome back from
break here on the daily road to our getting into
(13:40):
draftings by price range. Of course, we are starting out
with Bryson, the most expensive player in the field. Eleven thousand,
seven hundred Web eleven flat, Tyrell Hatton ten point seven,
Patrick Read ten point five, Decky ten point to Hoveland
ten k flat, Drew be talk me out of, talk
me out of w g C, mexicoing this and just
(14:02):
just all in. We're just we're just pressing the lock
button on Bryson and we're we're living with the results
after that. I don't think I can be talked out
of it. I think I don't think it's an irresponsible
decision um completely, especially in M M ME because a
couple of things like an MM, you're gonna want to
scatter things out with the lower price range guys, and
it's easier to do that if you lock somebody, because
(14:23):
then at least you're taking a stand somewhere. But if
I have to play Devil's advocate, I guess the things
you could point against it would be putting drove the
most deviation and scoring at this event last year, the
first time they played it off the team play drove
the least and out of deviation and scoring like ten percent,
So it was a blow average off the tea course,
above average putting course. Bryson is a good putter and
(14:44):
he's elite off the tea, but you still have to
get close with the approach and you have to make
those putts. So, um, if Bryson doesn't win at eleven
point seven K, the only way he really gets in
the optimal is if you get one of these scrubby
guys winning, because it's gonna be tough to fit in
Bryson and a ten gay guy, so that would be
the that would be my talking points for not locking
him and maybe just playing like fifties six. But it
(15:07):
does seem crazy not to get overweight here because it
does feel like a top ten is like the floor almost. Yeah.
I mean if he is, if you go one percent
Bryson and it rolls over on Thursday morning and he's
like thirty percent rostered, I think you're just like, well,
everyone else is paying the rake for me this week,
and if I don't win, it's just unlucky, like I
(15:27):
just because I think he is. Like if we're looking
at so if we agree Web as a world class golfer,
which I'm fine with. You know, I kind of been
waiting for the magic pixie dust to rub off of
his game because for a long time Web was a
pretty average PGA Tour golfer. But Pratton read Adecki, Hovland
sung jam, I mean, these guys are good golfers. But
(15:47):
you know I would I would, you know, Bryson in
the again in against them in a head to head
would be you know, minus one thirty or better pretty
much for for seventy two olds. So like I I
feel pretty good. I feel good about my decision before
I've even made it. Yeah, and I mean WEB. I
guess what I would say is like, if you were
to ask me in three years whether Webb would still
be a top ten player in the world, I wouldn't
(16:08):
necessarily buy it, But if you were to ask me
over the next three months if they'll play like one,
I think I will. And it was almost like we
saw that Mullinari a little heater right where he was
a very good golfer, top fifty player for a long time,
a very good top twenty player for a period of time,
and then kind of rode like a heater to becoming
elite for a short period and now it's kind of
on the downswing again. That's kind of I guess, like
(16:30):
in the next three years what I would expect at
a WEB. But he's definitely good in every facet of
the game, and that's one of the reasons that, especially
on FANDEL where it's a little easier to jam in
like Stars and Scrubs are multiple top in players, I
think he's more in play there. On DK, it's pretty
much a choice between the two of them, and I
prefer Bryson. Imagine Bryson will be owned. I don't think
(16:50):
I've ever seen a top price player get like above
thirty UM and maybe even thirty five anything but like
high stakes stuff. So I can see Bryson like capping
out at just because of how things have shook out historically.
But that would be the argument for Webb. And obviously
Web is one of the best putters in the world.
He is the best putter in this field over the
last a hundred rounds, and so you know putting is
(17:13):
going to drive a lot of deviation. We know it's
random week to week, but that long term it does
play out for the guys who are good, and so
if Web catches the upside week, then basically what you
see is what happened at RBC Heritage where he wins.
And if I get wiped out going all in on Bryson,
then I get wiped out going all in on Bryson.
I am I'm dec yeah, the other I don't think
(17:34):
it's hard to get see a scenario where you get
wiped out, right, like a miscut seems extremely low well
T eight and uh Adam had win wins at and
Web T three's I'm getting wiped out at that point,
Like that will be a that will be a minus
sevent scenario. Yeah, I mean it would depend on like
(17:56):
the six and six composition of your rosters, but it
wouldn't be great. But yeah, yeah yeah. Um So as
far as the other guys here above ten K, I
think they're all fine. I think my because I think
iron Play is gonna end up mattering so much here.
My would probably favor read the most. Um, but I
would help. Man. I'm seeing a rostered projection for Hoveland,
(18:20):
and uh, you know, maybe maybe the way I will
get exposure to Hoveland will be in Showdown and in
weekend golf, but it'll be it'll be kind of hard
to make that work with what I'm wanting to do
with my player pool overall. Yeah, Hoveland on that Sunday round,
he last like two and a half strokes spotting. I
swear it was all on the back nine. Just it's
gonna take some mental fortitude for me to go back
(18:41):
to the well with him tonight. But his ball striking
was elite off t approach game was on fire, like
he was generating tons of looks and that's definitely the
type of thing you want. I think maybe you could
fit Bryson Hoveland on a couple of teams but with them,
like you have like four total darts um for the
rest of the guys, and yeah, there's there's not like
(19:01):
there's not a lot to love about these other expensive guys.
There's Patrick Reed I think is in probably the best
form out of all of them, Hobbland the best t
de Green player. DECKI like his debut at RBC was
so shaky. Granted a lot of that was with the putter,
but it's hard for me to feel comfortable going back
to the wall with him as well. So UM, I
don't know like Bryson Webb paying up there, Patrick Reed,
(19:25):
maybe some Hobblin, but that would kind of be the order.
I'm probably off of Hadden entirely, and I'm uncommitted to Deckie.
But we'll see where I shake out. Uh so guys
in the next range song Jay I like him kind of.
Whatever the optimizer gives me, I don't think I'll mess
with that too much. You know. If I'm getting ument
of the optimizer, I'm fine with that. If I'm getting
(19:48):
I think I'm fine with that too. Um Ricky is
going to be an exclude for me, Bubba is going
to be an exclude, Kevin Na is going to be
an exclude. I think the now is fine. We have
him projected right now for like a like being on
of roster's like which with my ownership constraints, like the
way that I have it set up, it's gonna be
hard for me to get much of him. Uh Scheffler.
(20:10):
Though Scheffler feels like the one where our initial roster
projection might be too high. We have him right about
right now, and uh, I think after how much he
broke people's hearts last week with the Bogeys on the
par five's, I don't know if the public will be
as willing to forgive him. I don't know. So. I mean,
we saw it happened with Webb right where he missed
(20:32):
the cut his chalk, he comes back and he's even
more owned. We saw it happen with Sanjay, he misses
the cut, comes back, his chalk is more owned. So
I think people would go back to Scheffler. He did
get priced up, mostly because the field strength um drops
so much. But I think, like, if he's popping in
our model, then I think it's enough to say, hell,
(20:52):
he'll still get some ownership. Maybe it's a little aggressive
right now, but um, I guess the concerning point with
him was that he was losing a lot of those
strokes on approach around the green. It was he actually
gained strokes with a putter, averaging more than one stroke
game in the two rounds he did play, So he
played a lot worse than it looked, which is always
a little bit of a concern. Yeah, Harris English, I am,
(21:16):
I am. I mean do you want to do you
want to push back on Ricky Bubba or not? Do
you think any of them should be? They're not, They
won't be in my player pool. Do you think any
of them should be? Um, I don't think nah should be. Necessarily.
Ricky has has not been good at all in the
two events we've seen him. I guess if the ownership
it ends up being super low. If if a lot
(21:38):
of people don't roster him, um, and maybe you go
six Bryson and liketent of your teams are just balance contrarian.
Maybe you mix the match a couple of these guys.
Ricky obviously a world class putter if if he does
have to get hot, but it doesn't feel like a
great week for him, So um, I would say Sunjay
Tony fine. Now Bubba would be I think I would
(22:01):
include Bubba in my mix. Uh yeah, I'm not if
not interested at all. He sucks. He just his Bubba's
Bubba's best golf is um is past him though he
I think he is getting the slight bump from no
fans of the courses. I definitely think he enjoys playing
without them. Uh Rory Sabbatini, j T Post and these
guys feel mostly fine. Jason Day not not making it
(22:24):
in my mix, he seemed. Jason Day seems like he
is teetering on the edge of withdrawal just at any moment. Yeah,
Jason Day, he wasn't feeling good, so he tried to
take a proactive COVID desk before his weekend round. So um,
that tells you what what you need to know about
Jason Day. Um. I guess the other thing about Bubba
(22:45):
that came out last week was he said that he
was asked if there are any guys on tour he
likes playing with or doesn't like playing with, and he
basically said that like some guys playing with him was
a two stroke penalty. So now, in addition to having
to mega scout Bubba's course history, you also have to
scout his playing partners, So that's that's a tough one
for old bubba Um. I don't know. I think in
(23:07):
this range in general, there are solid guys for balanced
contraing teams. But if we're paying all the way up
for Bryson, I think the average costs of roster spot
it's like SEV seven point five. Yeah, so that that
doesn't leave you a ton to work with. And I
would say in general, this this range, like you said,
it's it's fine, but you're you're not. It's not like
(23:27):
there's a standout value that what's really what's really the
difference between you know, Tyler Duncan and uh and J T.
Boston like functionally nothing to me? Yeah, I mean I
would agree. So if we want to add a little
more color to some of these guys, like Doc Redman
has been striking the ball the cho chock God. Yeah,
(23:47):
he's forty two one on FanDuel now and what he
was like a hundred fifty last week? Um and Rufus
Peabody tattered him on the take cast that you did
with him. Really interesting. Listen if you are into golf
that or even fantasy golf in general, I think the
take Cast podcast Davis did with Rufus sheds a little
bit of light into one of the best professional sports
bettors in the world in the PGA circuits and so um.
(24:10):
I know he said he liked Doc a lot, but
I don't know if he's liking him a lot at
forty to one. And but like the underlying metrics, last
three rounds are are great and if you are banking
on that stuff heavier because of the restart, then it's
gonna make him project even a little bit ahead. Lucas
Glover hero rounds on Lover. Glover is going to be
a big part of my player pool this week for sure. Yeah,
(24:31):
Glove Glover is another one of those guys surprisingly almost
like a poor man's web. Like I think people think
of Glover as a terrible putter, but over the last
like a hundred rounds, he's actually been a pretty solid putter.
He games with Glover for sure. It's a very fluid
situation as it as it pertains to him. There are
(24:52):
other great plays down here though, I mean Eric Van
Roy and e v R like like he is so
much he is a better player than and you know
he's a better player than r c B. Then Adam
hadwin than J. T. Boston. Like e v R is
like a for real good player, so I will be
extremely happy on him. Yeah, and like r c B.
I think we were talking about two three weeks ago.
(25:14):
I forget if it was the Colonial, but he was
like seven K and less than five percent owned, and
we were like this, this dude can go low in
certain events, like to play him, had a cheap price
and get some exposure to him, but now you're paying
like a premium. He went absolutely him on the weekend
as well. He's another one of those guys. I feel
like he got priced up because his performance was just
(25:35):
this massive charge on Sunday, almost entirely off the T two,
So that was pretty pretty epic. But um yeah, I
feel like it's a coin flip between our CB and
e v R on a week to week basis, and uh,
if you're gonna be flipping coins, and you might as
well take the guy that fewer people roster I'm playing.
I'm playing both of them for certain. I'll tell you this,
I'll never play Brendan Todd again after watching him hack
(25:59):
it around and when he made the seven on the
par four like, that's just not a guy that I
h that I need to be exposing myself to the
most part, Yeah, well good for him, Good for good
for Brendan Todd. We are going to go ahead and
head into a break here real quick on the Daily
Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. When we return,
(26:19):
we're going to dive even deeper throughout the player pool
here on FanDuel and DraftKings for daily fantasy purposes. See
you guys on the other side of Break sports grid
dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as
our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
(26:41):
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more.
Want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to Break here
on the Daily Little Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm
Davids Mannick joined by Colin Drew as we continue to
break down the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club.
(27:05):
Some pretty interesting name. It is in k Range And
if you are going to be doing the Bryson will
definitely need to being these dudes, right, So you know,
Brandon Grace Kisner probably not a guy I will find
myself rostering too much math Verick McNeely HV. Three Isn't
Isn't Joseph Bramlett one of the Outlaw Tour heroes. I swear,
(27:27):
I swear he was playing on those Outlaw Tour events
in Arizona. I don't know about that. I don't recognize
him from the Outloat Tour, but I think his form
on the corn Ferry tour um was pretty epic over
the past five events leading into last week at the Travelers,
and he ended up having a really good ball striking
week at the Travelers. It feels like a premium price,
(27:49):
So I'm not super interested in him unless it's at
like single digit ownership sub five percent I think would
be the level um. But yeah, maybe he played outlaw
to events too if the guys grinding the corn Ferry
Tory could be granting other stuff. Um, I think Brendon
times more in play than you do. Uh. I'm look,
he doesn't have to win the event to be in
(28:10):
great lineups for a week long. And yeah, it was
a good opportunity to get off of him in round
four showdown, knowing that the pressure was gonna be on
him and that he was gonna be like owned, especially
if you're gonna be going heavy and DJ. But he
struck the ball really well last week. He was basically
until that triple, he was hitting every ferry everything. Can't
I can't watch someone lay up on a par five
(28:31):
and roster them willingly like it like it would be
better for me to It would honestly be better for
me to not have watched, because I just I don't
think I can ever play him again. Yeah, because I
think he was good and generally, like you said, if
you're playing Bryson, you're playing a lot of guys in
this price range. This price range becomes pretty important. Uh,
it doesn't look like a ton of people are going
(28:53):
to roster him right now. Maybe maybe more will than
as the week goes on, but he's popping as a
decent value in the projections that honest roster percent. So
I think Brendan Todd is a fine play, especially in
like a single entry. I think going like Bryson Todd
and then trying to find the value place rounded out
would be Um, you know, my first look at how
I would start to think about lineup, I think one
(29:15):
dude who might get the arbitrary matic bump is gonna
be Scott Stallings uh so, because I knew that Scott
Stallings um had like transformed himself into like a like
a ripped dude, but I don't think I realized just
how much until I saw him on the broadcast last week.
This dude is like a workout warrior. Now I'm in.
(29:37):
You sold me, Scott Stallings. So you're just gonna stack
your roster with guys who have changed their body image
over the past five years. Yeah, yeah, well the last
last five months. Really, I mean not because I think
I'm gonna be trying obviously to to get you know,
capture some top ten equity in my lineups for guys
who are not super popular and you know af o
(29:58):
far projections like I mean, the data golf projections do
drive ownership because you know, a huge not a huge chunk,
but a decent chunk of the player pool is using
them to generate their lineups. And if there's guys you
have to adjust, you know, that is that is pretty helpful.
I don't think I've ever seen Brian Steward play a shot,
but he's one of those guys that in Showdown projections.
(30:20):
He's always just priced a little bit too cheap, and
he I feel like one one round every week. He
always has like some hero sixty four round that ends
up playing big in showdown. Yeah, Scott Scott Stallings. He
he gave me like a brief glimmer of hope that
it's gonna make like another fifteen K because he's bogey
the seventeen and then after watching Hoblin, like miss all
(30:41):
these pots, Stallings rolls in a Bertie from like thirt
on eighteen just absolute dagger to my round four Showdown yesterday.
But he's one of those guys I feel like he
has some of those low rounds when you get on
easy course, it's almost like a if it never ends
up coming to fruition. And that's why people don't roster
him because it's like a once a year type thing.
But it's almost like a Matt Everything where it's just
(31:02):
like all of a sudden, you open the leaderboard and
he's like minus five type of the lead. And I
don't know Stallings, I think he's fine. I'm not super
enthused about it, but I understand why you might boost
him a little bit. I agree with you on Stewart.
It feels like he gets hot with the putter for
a couple of rounds here and there, which is nice
for showdown. Nobody ever plays him. This is the type
of course and type of field. Maybe people play him
(31:22):
a little bit, but um, definitely a guy there. I
guess Patrick Rogers another guy. I think it's pretty interestingly
showing up. Yeah. Yeah, And if you look back like
five years, this guy is one of the top ranked
amateurs in the world and had some flashes of success,
nothing really sustained um and a pretty weak field, so
(31:43):
I don't know. I mean, like it's not just lastly
winning last year it was like West Roach on the leaderboard,
Cameron tru Galley on the leader boards. So as far
as quality golfers and the ability to to get hot
and win, I feel like Patrick Rogers is right up there.
So in that range. I think those are some of
the names I'm most interested in. Todd. I thinks number one,
what are you doing with Keegan? What are you doing
with Keegan Man the course we're putting drives at all?
(32:05):
What are we doing? Yeah? What I mean, what is
what is it? What is the optimizer spitting out for Keegan?
If you if you JM Brayson, I'm gonna okay, I'll
run it right now with my steadings left over from
Round four showdown. I'm gonna guess I get a bunch
of him. He's priced at sevent draft kings. He might
be a guy that if you were including him in
(32:25):
your player pool for DFS, I would. I would bet
him out right, because if you're if you're just making
that leap that he's not gonna go full Kegan, you are,
you are making a leap that's a he's gonna have,
you know, a really a really good round, not getting
as much of him as I thought, only about five
PC in two and fifteen lineup, So but I have
I have shuffled up pretty high. Yeah, I'd be fine
(32:47):
playing Keegan at five percent. I think that sounds about right.
I was a little concerned. You're gonna say he was
popping in like us, like Scheffler was last week. You know,
the the guy who's getting the guy who is mega
popping in the projections down here right now out without
any big time edits is Sebastian Monos because he is quintessential, like, uh,
you know, he's just gonna be bad for ten straight
(33:08):
rounds and then fire back to back sixty three. Yeah. Yeah,
I would say one of the things that I'm gonna
be trying to do this week is, I know a
lot of these guys who are like like like Keegan
or like Scheffler, A lot of these guys who are
good t green, but like vaalse Hold with the putter
is not very good. They end up popping, they end
up being okay DK scores. But I do feel I
(33:30):
feel like put is gonna matter a bit more this
week than maybe how our default projections factored in, which
is treating it pretty similar on a week week basis.
So I'm gonna knock bad putters just because I think
you're gonna have to put really well. Um So, guys
like he can, I'll probably downgrade a little bit. Kyle Stanley,
you're not playing him. I think I'll still play them,
(33:50):
but it's something I'm gonna downgrade a little bit. Matters
on the price range too, because um, like we said,
like top twenty is obviously what you're looking for in
this like seven K range, and Kyle Stanley is right
down there. Uh he's the candidate I think though, to
be one of the highest on value golfers of the week.
So that would fly a bit in the face of
what we're trying to to do, especially in Bryson bills.
(34:11):
It would be really easy to go Bryson, Stanley, Stanley
with a good showing last week, Um, we'll see, we'll see.
I feel like I should say no Stanley, but um,
we'll see. Going the other way. Does that mean that
our our boy m Thompson, Michael Pompson, Does that mean
as as one of the best long term putters on tour?
(34:32):
Are we are we jamming? Are we jamming him and
giving him a little bit extra credit? And the optimizer
this week? Well, I mean I think the credit you're
looking for is like one percent ownership. Like I'm all
about that this week, especially if you lock Bryson. So yeah,
I mean I think Michael Thompson would be in play.
Smashing Moono's definitely in play. Maybe ownership follows him a
(34:55):
little bit. Um and trying to navigate through some of
the chalk. We talked a little bit about total roster
cap as far as how we build some of our lineups,
and I think that's a really good feature to use
this week, And I might be even more aggressive. Most weeks,
I use it as like a dupe avoid, but I
might be even more aggressive this week just because of
the like votility and randomness associate with the event. Yeah,
(35:19):
I think, I think I like that idea. Um One
one thing that I started to do in Round four
showdown is two avoid the problem of you know, your
your two line up being so different than your first
is creating like a men to group of like you know,
(35:41):
maybe like your fifteen or twenty like absolute like these
are the dudes that, uh that you really want to
play or whatever, and and using that to you know,
get like I guess it. At the same time, it
kind of fixes the clumping issue but also prevents your
two fine up from just like draw Stone dead. Yeah,
(36:02):
I think that you could use less shuffle and more volatility.
I think would be another approach that might get away
from some of the clumping that you talk about, But
it also just would introduce more bad players into your
player pool, which which is is fine. Like, I I
think getting it. I guess we can go right now
just for a little bit before we get back into
(36:22):
the player pool into round four showdowns. So one of
the things during this like COVID break where it's the
golf is the only game in town. We have been
doing ownership projections four Round four. I've been pushing those
out late on Saturday night typically, and so that's been
another feature I've used to try to differentiate the lineups
in in the Round four showdown, Like I'm not trying
to dodge like DJ when he's at the top of
(36:43):
the board, but i still want unique ways to build
with him in there, and so having those ownership projections
is really good for that. I would also say especially
weeks like last week, weeks like this week where it's
a birdie fest, like there are gonna be guys shooting
minus eight, so we saw huge rounds from guys who
are way down the leaderboard, and all the ownership funnels
to the top of the leaderboard. So you don't want
(37:03):
to fade DJ outright when he's like too off the
lead on Sunday and he's one of the best players.
It is price absurdly cheap, but like, you can't play
all the chalk and it's not gonna be all the
top and guys that go low, so you gotta mix
and match for round four. And I think the ownership projections.
We have a daily road will help with that. Yeah,
and I mean for for this specific round for and
(37:26):
I I kind of thought that the only reasonable way
to do it was to play either one of Todd
and zero percent of DJ, or DJ and zero percent
of Todd, because first of all, the two stroke lead
had to have been overcome by DJ. You know, you're
projecting those birdie points, those end up being meaningful. And
if Todd, and if you are going heavy on DJ
(37:49):
and he is able to overcome those two strokes, that
means that Todd's probably not having a particularly good round. Um.
Sounds like you did not agree with that assessment. So
probably something that I'm missing there. Uh No, I mean
I think that's fair. But you could see a scenario
where DJ shoots minus six, Todd shoots minus five like
(38:09):
Todd wins the event, DJ still did well like DJ
because Todd was such a good price. Yeah, Um, and
DJ was a good price too. It was the other
thing because he had made like a big Saturday move.
The guys who end up being good values are oftentimes
the guys make Saturday moves because it seems like they
priced things at some point on Saturday so if a
guy makes a huge charge, he ends up being like
a really good value at least in the opt though, Um,
(38:32):
I think it's more about the overall roster than it
is like an individual choice between those two guys. But
I think if you're right on being like all on DJ,
then it you give yourself more outs. And I know
you did really well in the MINIMAC season that strategy,
so there's definitely married to that too. Yeah. Um, okay, everyone,
we are going to go ahead and head into our
final break here on the Daily Road to Hour on
(38:55):
Sports Grade TV. When we return, we will get a
little bit more into the very bottom of the you'll
the the seven K six K punts you'll need with
Bryson this week, and then also talk the betting markets
on fan Duel. Maybe we will find a couple of
plus e V numbers in there so that you can
bet Bryson and you know, still profitably hit a couple
of other guys deeper down the betting markets as well.
(39:20):
Sports grid dot Com Betting Insights and Entertainment at your
fingertips seven as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back break
(39:41):
here on sports Gride TV. This is the Daily Rodo
Hour with Davis Maddock and Colin Drew finally rounding up
you know, the the stone punt takes Uh tom Ogi
seven k I. You know, of my rosters, I think
is Uh is my projection for Ogie right now. I mean,
this dude is this dude is just the best. He
(40:04):
just he's gonna wedge his way around. He's gonna make
all the birdies. That's an official prediction. He's He's probably
the last guy in like the single entry that I
feel good about clicking onto a roster. And there's some
guys like six point seven case six point k that
I'm comfortable rostering and like twenty max type builds. But yeah,
(40:24):
I think I think Hog is the last guy that
he'd be like the last man in if I had
to cut off my player pool somewhere. For single entry,
we've got a nineteen percent o twenty, I probably cap
my ownership right around there. I think field percent we've
got around five right now, so probably an overweight play
for HOGI there we go overweight play on noted take
(40:44):
cast guest Hollywood HOGI you you you love to see it?
Um Sam Burns a dude who I think will make
the player pool. Lanto Griffin another guy? Do you want it?
Do you want to out your old pal Jason Duffner
at here in Detroit? It no, no, no Dufner for me? Uh.
I mean I think in general, probably I usually cut
(41:06):
my player pool off the guys with like fifteen to
twenty odds. This weekend they let it fly a little
bit more, depending how aggressive I get on Bryson. So
I don't know. There's there's some names here. I have
some interest in Tyler Duncan, Taylor Gooch at the Flat
seven K I think are okay? Plays you said Sam Burns,
I think he's in play there. Matthew Wolf and Aaron
Wise I think are both pretty interesting as well. Uh,
(41:28):
deep prices on both those guys. Wolf didn't play well
last week. Why has actually had a decent showing last
week for what seems like the first time and forever.
And you're kind of getting a stone pretty close to
Stone and him price on him. So those were some
of the guys in that high six k that I
was at least drawn to a little bit. In general,
probably play more of this range than I do on
a week to week basis. Yeah, I think this range
(41:51):
is going to end up being important because you know,
Bryson is Bryson is so expensive and we we all
want access to that. Gonna have to gonna have to
nuke my boy Luke list off of here. He just
you know, I'm not I'm not going to allow myself
to be hurt again. But Adam Shank is going to
make that list to me for for sure. Um, Danny
Willett is coming in crazy high in the projections right now,
(42:16):
and generally that is not the case. So I'm wondering
if that's just a function of field strength. Like Danny
Willett is always priced down here and generally that makes
him unplayable. But in this course, you know, he's priced
next to uh, you know, last year's winner Nate Lashley.
So so maybe maybe he actually does end up being
a solid play here. Now. Yeah, I mean I think
(42:38):
that's really that's really it. He's not like eighteen percent
to teach money. He's kind of praised or projected maybe
like a seven K seven point two kke golf for
an these prices six point six. So combine that with
the fact that you're trying to slam price it in
and I think and you know, one percent ownership on
will it. I think that's why you're seeing things like that.
I think it makes sense. I can't really not to play. Uh.
(43:01):
Cameron Tryn Galley, I think is another guy that's popping
a little bit as far as another uh like six
point six K golfer had a really good showing here
last year and said the top five. I'm not sure
if that will draw ownership, just because Trin Galley is
not like a guy that people like to roster um, right,
So yeah, I guess those are some of the names
that kind of jumped out to me a little bit.
(43:22):
And then Windham Clark was another one guy that can
hit the battle mile and can get really hot lights
out with the putter. So I mean that's what he does, right,
bombs did and puts it. Bombs and putts. That's all
he does. I mean, that's that's kind of what you're
looking for this week a little bit. I mean, you
want the guys who obviously approach is gonna be pretty important.
But um, I'm seeing stuff playable down here this week.
(43:43):
And I don't usually see that these guys would be
like at most ten percent place, but in probably five
percent to be to be honest. But some stuff down
here I think I can get on board with. Finally, Yeah,
I mean Matt Jones at UH. Note note for those
of you who are using the Daily Road Optimizer to
create winning fantasy golf lineups, and I expect that all
(44:05):
of you should be doing uh, gonna just go ahead
and place the nice little exclude click on Steve Stricker
at dred UH. The data Golf projections. They have their reasons,
whatever they might be, but I am I'm not falling
for it. Steve Stricker not going to be in the
player pool for your boy this week. There's a gletch man.
(44:26):
There's something in there, some some baried data. Stricker winning
like Senior Tour events, getting capture or something. Yeah, I
I assume that is what it is. I assume that
it's that he is crushing on on the Champions Tour
or something. Let's see the absolute cheapest playable guy. Probably
that's me. I was gonna say, Bronson burgoon a Sea. Yeah,
(44:48):
I think Aaron Badley. They're both six point two k right, yes, yeah,
they're both down there at six point two. K Uh.
That is uh, that's about it as low. It's as
low as we're gonna get, you know. That's uh, we're
not they're not We're not gonna out VJ saying here, yeah,
we're not touting him. The only other two guys have
ever even rostered probably Roster Brian Gay like once or
twice um, and then Bill Hass like five years ago.
(45:13):
I mean, I can't I can't say that I've never
rostered Lucas Beregard or Johnson Wagner or uh Zach Sucher,
Ted Potter Jr. Hank La Boydia. These guys have all
found their ways into my player pool from here there,
and I'm not proud of it, but it is what
it is. Yeah. So he think y'alla is back in
the field again this week too. Didn't debut very well
(45:34):
or didn't fare very well on his tour debut. Um.
We talked about him brief last week just in the
Data Golf Amateur rankings. He's not nearly as highly tired
of the prospect as like the crew we saw come
last year's so until he does something, I'll probably be
off him. But fun. Yeah, Um, alright, So getting into
the betting markets, um, you know, okay, we already talked
(45:56):
at the beginning of the show a little bit about
our boy brance Sin. I can't I can't take that
wager back now, it's too late, it's already been made.
We have we have purchased Bryson shares at at seven
to one. It's down to six to one now on
the fandual Sports book. Specifically, there are a couple other
guys who I think that you could wager, um, Scotty
(46:17):
Scheffler actually showing up at thirty four to one as
a plus e V wager. Data Golf has it closer
to to one as what his number should be. Yeah,
and I guess for anybody who is using the fantasy
projections or the betting tools, it's worth noting that Data
Golf did have data from that charity event in Dallas,
and that is factored into the projections. Scheffler won that event,
(46:38):
and it was a decently strong field. It wasn't a
sanctioned pro event, and there's not like underlying shot link
data for it. Obviously, and I guess you could question
how motivated some of these guys were, like playing for
it versus playing for charity. It's baked in. So maybe
he's getting a boost because and I know he's getting
a boost because of that. You just can kind of
decide how much you want to either account for that
(47:00):
or disregard it and adjust the projection accordingly. He's still
gonna be a good play in DFS, just maybe not
quite as like screaming of the value if you don't
trust that data. And I'm on the fence with that,
so I usually dock him a little bit. Uh, Tom
HOGI I think hundred fifty one your boy popping the
best price available on Vandel sports book out of any
of the books. So, Tom HOGI I think is a
(47:21):
great bet on FanDuel um DT one and then if
you want to go I guess a little bit deeper.
I think Taylor Googe we talked about him a little
bit two to one. He's projected for Fantasy in a
similar range to guys that are priced much cheaper on Fandel,
like hundred fifty two one guys. So you're getting an
extra sixty two one for Gooch and I don't know,
(47:42):
if you're gonna fire darts, you might as well look
for an extra sixty two one on your beat for sure.
I mean, I'm I'm looking to fire darts for sure
because I've I've already kind of priced myself out of
that top, you know, the top end of the market.
And you know, we saw Nate Lashly, We saw Nate
Lashly do it last year, and really not going to
surprise me if we get you know, just a total
(48:05):
random you know up there on Sunday. Now, not not
saying for sure that that you know, random person is
going to end up winning, but you know what, lastly
minus twenty five last year a multi a multi stroke win.
So I think Cogi had a hundred and fifty two one. Um.
I think Sebastian Monos add a hundred to one or better.
I think that one is um, you know, I think
(48:27):
that one is kind of reasonable. There are some other dudes,
um Eric van Roy, and I wish maybe that he
was a little bit deeper, but I really like him.
I think there are hundred of ones out there. On
HB three. Lucas Glover is another one. Uh, you guys
can tell I just I love to bet. I love
to bet these guys deep so much. Um And the
(48:49):
the one, the one that Data Golf wants you to
bet obviously is strictor I'm not gonna do that one
to myself. If you can get Matthew Wolf deeper than
a hundred of one noted already winner on the PGA
two were I kind of I kind of like him
as well. Yeah, And I think one of the big
things is this week it seems like, you know, we
we don't really think there's a lot of value on
the top end guy. It's just because Bryson does have
(49:11):
pretty dominant win equity. I think both of us are
a bit I mean, you're even higher on Bryson than
the markets are. I'm probably closer to the betting markets
that I'm on Data Golf as far as bryces win equity,
and that that kind of kills some of the value. So,
like Headeki, I think Data Golf makes is like a
decent wager, but that's probably a pass for me just
because I value Bryson a little bit higher there. And
(49:34):
then the same thing with Scheffler, like I don't quite
value his winning that charity event. So UM in general,
it seems like a week where it's longer shots. Usually
when I bet these longer shots, like the three Aaron
Badley types, I'm also betting them to top twenty, just
because there's a lot of correlation between the book prices
on outrights and the book prices on top twenty. Obviously,
(49:54):
these guys are three for a reason. They're not gonna
win very often at all. But the twenty bets you're
still maybe getting like ten to one, fifteen to one
on those, and those are gonna come to fresh and
a bit more. So. That's kind of how I would
go about this week, And it seems like a week
where maybe those top twenty bets are a better place
than the outright betting market. There's a lower big there
anyways too. And you know, as we talked about on
(50:17):
the show last week, when you haven't hit an outright
winner in a couple of weeks, those T twenty markets
they start to become a little bit more appealing, just
so you're not checking your your sports betting balanced there
on Monday morning or on Sunday afternoon. If you get
settled out earlier in art, you're not mad at yourself.
Is there anything worse than like when all of Twitter wins,
that's literally nothing, you got like nothing, no, And I'm like, great, awesome,
(50:41):
great there. I mean I made some good plus e
V wagers and uh, of course I'm returning nothing because
Dustin Dustin Johnson is one of the best golfers in
the world, and uh, you know he got there, so
good for him. Uh one and done. This week. My
thought is I will probably just what do you think
about using EBB because I missed what I've missed this
(51:03):
sickening Web run for most of it, and I just
just get him out of the way and this will
this will be a nice hedge for my DFS exposures,
which should likely be zero on Web. Yeah, so it's
pretty interesting. If you're ahead, like right now in a segment,
if you use WEB, then I think, and you're towards
(51:23):
the top, you need to consider using Bryson because he's
such a dominant favor to win. Um, if you're behind,
but you got like good finishers at the other events
that I actually think Web is a great leverage play
because you know, none of the leaders can can win
with WEB. So if you can pick up a million
bucks from Webb, you know, you're gaining on of the
guy's ahead of you who have banked his win already,
(51:45):
and you can't say the same about anybody else. Like
you know, if if you're playing the HITDECKI or Patrick
Read or something like that, who might be other options
that are live to win the event and they win,
You're probably only gaining on the guys um. And so
I think Web is like an in single average play.
If you're behind, hope that he goes on like a
heater um. And I'm assuming it's gonna be in the
(52:05):
field this week. His withdrawal last week wasn't for COVID
symptoms himself, it was because the family member had tested positive.
It is precautionary UM. So I'm assuming he's in the field,
but you obviously want to check that there's no reason
to be concerned about his health though. Alright, everyone, thank
you very much for listening to the Daily road To
Hour here on Sports Grade TV and the Daily road
To Going for the Green Fantasy Golf Podcast. Everyone, good
(52:27):
luck at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and I hope that
we are recapping a bright and day Shambo this time
next week. Sports grid dot Com Betting insides and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more. Want the edge than get on
(52:49):
the grid sports grid dot com
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