July 10, 2020 • 53 mins
Davis Mattek is joined by Christopher Pacheco, as the guys dive into the MLB Futures Market and look at who can lead the league in saves, hits and strikeouts. While looking at the FanDuel Sportsbook odds, where can we find the best value? The guys also give you some bets to win NL Cy Young and AL Cy Young. Davis and Pacheco close out the show looking at the PGA Majors Market and give you some golfers you should keep your eye on.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
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(00:22):
And it's like that moment in the you know in
in the Avengers movies where she asked him what did
it cost you? And he and he says, everything you know?
And I don't wanted to go off everything that. I
just don't Dave, and I don't want to be that guy.
But if you truly love something, whether it be in
sports investment, whether it be pin Paul will have been
guarden Age, he truly loves you, find a way to
(00:43):
do it. My father always said that to me. The
Sports Grid Network, Hello everyone, and welcome to the Daily
Road to Hour. Here on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Mannock,
joined by Christopher Pacheco. We are continuing our look forward
at the Major League Baseball season. Yesterday on the show,
(01:03):
we covered a ton of World Series futures. We looked
at World Series matchups, um, we looked at some specific
team win totals, and we started to dig into player futures.
You know, we discussed some of the odds for American
League and National League MVP, but didn't yet get into
the Cy Young or some of the season leaders for hits, runs, saves,
(01:26):
and strikeouts. So we're gonna be diving back into MLB
player futures on the show. Then we're also going to
take a look at the futures markets for golf, you know,
looking at some of those major's markets because as Bryson D.
Shambo's you know, recent run has proven to us Pacheco,
there's definitely room for profitable odds still out there. And
then a little bit later in the show, we're also
(01:46):
going to dig into the futures markets for the National
Football League. But I want to start here on most
hits Pacheco, because I I expect this to be a
profitable market, you know, I I based they think that
the guy who leads the leads Major League Baseball for
most hits, it's not going to be a favorite because
(02:06):
hits are so random over sixty games. I am definitely
in agreement with you here, Davis. This feels like such
a random, noisy stat to begin with. So you know,
right off the bat, guys like Nolan Arronado and with
mary Field and you know, those guys who are at
(02:28):
the very top. I just I don't really see myself
betting them, Like, I think this is a really good,
uh like category to just kind of take some long
shots and hope they hit. Yeah, I definitely agree with you.
So I think, you know, one of the one of
the places where we should start looking is we should
(02:49):
start looking at guys with really low k rates and
really high batting average on balls and play, because that's
that those two combinations. So and also another thing is
guys who walk might be good for on base percentage,
but they're definitely not good for this category because we
we don't want dudes taking walks. We do not want
guys who are taking free bases. We would pretty much
(03:11):
we we want them to be swinging away. So the
first deep shot guy I saw, and I don't even
know if you'd probably have to email the FanDuel sports book.
And by the way, you know people don't know this.
You can email your sports book and they will create
odds for you, like, uh, you know, they they want
your money, they want to book your bets, especially long
(03:31):
shot bets, like if you want to give them five
dollars to weigh around something a hundred to one and
the book thinks it's like five dred to one, they
will they will definitely do that for you. Let me
throw this one out to you, Pacheco Lourie Lurie Garcia
three percent walk rate last year, three fifty three batting
average on balls and play and he is gonna play
(03:53):
every single day for the White Sox. He is gonna
be their second baseman or you know, utility and fielder
every single day. And this is the kind of grossness that,
by the way, the White Sox have three of the
top six guys from batting average and balls in play
last year, which I just think is hilarious. Well, I
think it wasn't Timmy Anderson the batting like batting average
(04:18):
like he had or something like like something just absurd.
And again it just goes to show you that, you know,
batting title and all that stuff, like it's so incredibly
noisy um as far as Luri Garcia goes, David, I
will agree with you on one thing. That is a
really gross name, really really gross name. I'm doing my
(04:38):
best to bring the grossness. But because like I mean,
there's there's a lot of guys on this list that
like I can buy into, Lurie Garcia is probably one
that I will not buy into. Even if he plays
every day, like certainly he does not strike out, Um,
he'll make a lot of contact. I just don't see
(04:59):
him being the MLB, you know, regular season hit leader
that I don't think he's going to be able to
do that one. Yeah, well you know, probably not. Okay,
let me throw, let me throw another. So okay, I
guess the first thing we should say is, you know,
probably like the number one thing you're looking for is
the guy who's gonna lead in hits. Is guy's got
(05:21):
to be a guy who plays literally every single day,
right like it, It literally needs to be this guy.
So probably younger than thirty, so you'd want to say,
like a seven year old player. Those guys are just
less likely to get days off. And you also probably
want a guy who might d H every once in
a while, because you know, in this short season, obviously
(05:41):
we're gonna see playing time just be kind of weird.
So I think a guy who can d H every
once in a while um, you know, might be might
be kind of interesting. Last year, the hit leaders in
the last year, like you know, the two guys who
had the most hits were Wit Maryfield and Raphael Devers,
which is kind of interesting because those are guys from
our two teams. I would not be interested in either
(06:05):
one of those guys. But one of the guys who
was near the leaderboard last year, who I actually think
you could bet would be Jorge Polanco, who because he
is a switch hitter is and and a middle in
fielder is like he I mean, he might play in
fifty eight of the twins sixty games. Basically, I don't
think that's a bad one. I think Polanco's He's he's
(06:27):
certainly uh you know, like an above probably slightly above
average hit or last year he actually hit like I believe,
well above average. That that is a good name to
throw out there. I think here's the thing, David, when so,
Jorge Polanco has the same odds to be the MLB
regular season hits leader as Mookie Betts, And I don't
(06:50):
know how the Dodgers lineup is going to look. My
guess is that Mookie will hit towards the top of
it and that's just that's really scary because I think bets,
you know, not only can can he just get on
on base at a really high clip, but he can
get on basebike just generating hits and leading off for
(07:11):
that offense is going to be really, like really insane
for him. So I think bets for the same prize
as Jorge Polanco, I would rather do do that one. Um.
I mean there's literally the same price on Fandal sports book.
So that that's the reason why I mentioned it. Um
even trade Turner at plus hundred or even going down
(07:32):
the list a little bit of Juan Soto at plus
thirty four hundred are other names that you know, they're
not super long shots. These are you know, these are
really good hitters, but at least they're not towards the
very top there. There's somewhere towards like the middle ish,
especially Soto. So I do like that one. Okay, another
one from the Al Central. I actually think this guy
(07:54):
is legitimately under price, and it is Jose Ramirez at
one super low k rate guy you know, for his
career eleven and a half percent. Uh. Now, his batting
average on balls in play the last two years has
gone way down as he has, he started to elevate
basically a little bit um and and that is a
problem for most hits because you know that's gonna turn
(08:16):
some of those you know, some of those doubles are
gonna be flyouts as your launch angle increases. But you know,
I think Jose Ramirez, it's very interesting to ask yourself,
you know, is he closer to the guy from twenty
seventeen and eighteen where he was you know, a hundred
forty six weighted runs created plus? Or do you think
last year is closer to his his true skill level
(08:37):
where he basically had that horrible cold streak but at
the end of the year was a middle of the
road style guy. So he had a three thirty four
weighted on base average, a one oh four weighted runs
created a plus. You know, I think that if you
think he is more like the seventeen eighteen version, then
I think that you should probably be betting on him
(08:59):
at one for most hits. Well, if if you look
at you know, his his T sixteen season, so before
he actually you know, broke out into being a legitimate
good hitter and like a like a high I show guy. Um,
he wasn't really doing much, so for him to do
(09:22):
what he did last year wasn't incredibly surprising. Um Um,
if he is going to rebound, my guess is he
has to do it now, Davis, because he haven't going
into this season. Uh, my guests, just from what I've
seen from Jose Ramirez and just like studying the numbers
is what we saw last year, it's probably more in
(09:44):
line with the hitter that he is. You know, he's
not theenen hitter that he was. Um, but he also
is in the vision either he is better than that.
So um, so I a plus fifty five hundred. I
don't hate it, but I do have to question the
upside because I don't think that he will fully return
(10:07):
to the seen version of Jose Ramirez. Yeah, I mean
I definitely think that you could be I think you
could be right about that for for sure. Some of
the other names in here that I thought were interesting.
Marcus Siemion. Last year he finished seventh in total hits.
And you know, he's a guy that we think about
(10:27):
of having been around in baseball for a really long
time because he started playing really young. But he is
only nine years old and started playing in for the
White Sox. But you know, he is a power speed
guy who has really worked on his k rate, you know,
only a thirteen percent k rate last year, upped his
walk rate to eleven percent, has had seasons of you know,
(10:50):
better batting average on balls and play. We really like
that oakland A's line. Which is another thing we should
mention is you know, being on a good team and
leading off for that team, you're gonna get a couple
extra late appearances. You know, you might that might be
worth fifteen extra plate appearances over the course of the season.
And those plate appearances are going to add up for
most hits. And that's why I mentioned the Mookie Bets
(11:11):
thing earlier, or even some of those Nationals guys that
you know hit towards the top of the lineup, because
I do think that ends up being very valuable, uh potentially,
not even potentially, I think it ends up being very
valuable for this category. Um. Similarly, you know someone like
Charlie Blackman who plays half his games. Blackman is a
(11:34):
really interesting one. Yeah. Yeah, for literally again st Prize
as Jorge Blanco Mookie Beats, Um, I don't think you're
getting much of a discount there, But I think Blackman
at plus does make some sense, um semi in I
I like, don't love. My understanding is he is probably
(11:56):
due for some decent regression going into the sea, but
he has plus. So one of those long shots. Um
that but that we had mentioned towards the top of
the show that that you probably should be taking in
this category. So I don't hate it. I'd probably like
saving in more than I do Jose Ramrez, So I'll
give you that one. Yeah, Um, I think there are
(12:19):
a couple other guys who you know might be worth
a better to you know, Nick Castianos. I think, as
we have talked about before, George Springer at seventy to
one seemed pretty interesting to me, just because you know,
we do expect the astros to be good. We expect
Springer to get a ton of plate appearances. We also expect,
you know, it's gonna be you know, some of these guys,
(12:41):
they're not going to get pitches to hit a ton,
you know, Mike Trout not going to see a ton
of pitches to hit sometimes, you know, especially if Anthony
Rendon is taking the day off. But Springer is going
to have you know that that batting order protection around him.
Another sneaky one might be Chris Bryant, who people view
as like a slugger, but that's not really what he is.
You know, he is a really high contact guy, you know,
(13:04):
a guy who generates basically, guy who generates a ton
of hits despite you know, he's only ever he's only
ever passed thirty home runs on two occasions. So I
kind of like Chris Bryant at fifty five to one
as well. But we are gonna we are gonna go
ahead and head into break here real quick on the
Daily Road to hour. In that first segment there, we
covered some most hits potential leaders for the sixty game
(13:27):
Major League Baseball season. When we're returned, we're going to
take a look over at pictures and look at most
saves and most most strikeouts on the Vandel Sports Book
in terms of their baseball futures betting markets. So we
will see you guys on the other side of break
in just a few moments here on the Daily Road
to our sports grid dot com betting insides and entertainment
(13:50):
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
topics in sports wagering real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome
back to Break Here on the daily Road to Hour
on sports Cred TV. I am Davis Mannick, joined today
(14:13):
by Christopher Pacheco. We are continuing our look at the
betting markets for the MLB season. Loads of futures markets
to be had out here. I think there are plenty
of profitable wagers. In the first segment, we ran through
the guys who we think are good bets to accumulate
the most hits in baseball in But now we're gonna
(14:35):
take a look over at the pictures Pacheco for and
I want to start with most saves because I think
this category is fascinating because if you find a guy
who has no competition in the bullpen, that's that's obviously massive,
you know, gets every safe chance for his team, but
also like a sleeper team that's gonna beat their win total.
(14:56):
I think you have a great chance of finding a
guy who can actually win this category because we expect
there to be, you know, really just so much variants
basically in saves agreed um. Should we start off with
Rice Elly Glaziers. Yeah, because we've been touting the Reds
ever since we started doing the show, So might as
(15:19):
well go with our boy, Rice Elly Glaziers, who's just
not going to have, you know, competition for says my.
My guess is he would have to struggle in a
ridiculous way right off the gate in order for the
Reds to just pull him off, you know, off off
that um off the closer role. Um. And I just
(15:39):
don't see it. I don't see it. I think Laziers
is a really good closer. I think you know, you
and I are very high on the Reds uh this
year in their division. Uh. And I think I Glacias
is a really good candidate to be the safe leader
this year. Yeah, I mean so, to take a look
at his last three seasons. Uh, thirty four saves last year,
uh in sixty seven innings pitched, thirty saves in seventy
(16:03):
two innings pitched the year before, eight saves in seventies
six innings pitched. Has a career walk rate of only
eight percent, a career k rate of twenty eight percent.
And you know, as relief pitchers, walk rates tend to
get inflated e r A s tend to get inflated,
you know basically one bad like literally one bad start
can kind of ruin or or one bad appearance can
(16:26):
kind of ruin your e r A. But for his career,
a three seventeen e r A. So that's, uh, you know,
that's that's pretty pretty good. Some of the projections for
saves for him. Um Depth Charts has him for eleven,
Steamer has him for eleven, a t C has him
for twelve, you know, basically appearing in just a shade
under half of the Reds games. And another thing is,
(16:46):
you know you kind of just have to think about
the pattern of like win wins happen. So you know,
if your team wins back to back games, that's actually
kind of bad luck as a closer because that means,
you know, in one of those games, maybe you're not
going to be able to appear. How where you know,
if your if your team is winning games three days apart,
well that's you know, way better for you, right, Like
it just that obviously is that you know that that
(17:07):
just shows that, uh, you have more time to get
in there. So so basically, I think betting favorites in
this category is terrible because it's it's gonna be so random. Yeah,
I mean, I think I'm there with you. Like if
you look at the very top of the leaderboard here
for for you know, as far as price tags are concerned,
(17:30):
on these closers, we have Chapman at plus six fifty,
Rover toe Zuna at plus six fifty, and then Kenny
Jansen and plus seven fifty. You know the I mean,
it's the Yankees, Houston and Dodgers closer at the very top,
so like that makes a lot of sense. Plus Chapman
is one of the most dominant releague pictures we've probably
(17:50):
ever seen, so like it makes a lot of sense
for him to be at the very top. But I
am mostly in agreement with you, Davis. I think Saves
it's still random enough where you could take some some
longer shots. So we mentioned Rcelly Glaziers as plus twelve hundred,
so that's like almost two times the price of something
like the older's Chapman. I think, you know how times
(18:12):
have changed. Greg Kimbro, who used to be one of
the best closers in the game, had a terrible season
last year for the Chicago Cubs. You know, it doesn't
really have the age for for you to feel like, Okay,
he's gonna really bounce back in a huge way. But
I mean he's not gonna have a lot of competition
in that role in mind, in my opinion, Um in
(18:34):
that Cubs closer role, because I just I don't think
the Cubs have a lot of talent um in order
to replace him. So if he does have a good
bounce back season, Davis, I don't hate that one. The
question you have to ask yourself, as you know, do
you like Kimber at the same price tag you like
Eglazias because they have the same one and I think
Iglazias at this point is like younger Um arguably is
(18:59):
pitching for the better team. So there are some question
marks there surrounding Craig Kimbroll. Yeah, no, I I um,
I definitely agree with you. I I would I would
certainly prefer Iglesias over kimberll Um. You know, I don't know,
there are not a ton of guys that are really
deep at this category because you know, it's it's so
related to winning games, and you know they're really great
(19:20):
closers like Hector Nerris, you know, was one of the
best relief pitchers in baseball last year. It's just gonna
be hard for him to get the necessary amount of saves,
you know, he would basically pretty much have to go
perfect on his opportunities to get there. A guy I
think who could be interesting I think is is Sean
Doolittle from the Washington Nationals. He had twenty nine saves
(19:42):
last season. We do think the Nationals, you know, we
think they're really strong this year. We think they have
a decent chance to, you know, again, be one of
these teams that heads, uh, you know when wins the
division basically, so, I think Sean doodle at Sean Doolittle
at seventeen to one would be another guy that I
would be interested in wagering. I'm there with you. I
(20:03):
do like Dolittle, and I do like the Nationals a lot.
Going into the season. I think they have a you know,
a fair shot to repeat, especially with the COVID nineteen
situation giving them even more rest. I think it's gonna
be a huge thing for the Hartist. As I've mentioned
on the show before, I agree with you on Doolittle.
I think Brandon Workman at plus two thousand is not
(20:24):
the worst one out there. Um, he's going to be
the Red Sox closer. And you know, the Red Sox
should still win twenty nine to thirty one games. They
should be you know somewhere around that. Um, I think
Workman because of the Red Sox bullpen, which is I
think last year they probably overperformed a little bit, but
(20:46):
they don't have a lot of household names. I don't
think he's gonna have a lot of competition. So you know,
if he has a solid season, he he doesn't have
to like, you know, miss a bunch of bats, right, David.
He doesn't have to have the best e r A.
He just has to give us the most saves. And
a big thing for that is do you have a
lot of competition for for that position. I don't think
Workman does. So I do like him at plus eight thousands.
(21:10):
I don't love it, though. I think I prefer do
little for nearly the same price. Yeah, um, I mean
I like the idea. I So I think one thing
you could do is just like I'm gonna bet all
the dudes who have the jobs, But are you know,
played for bad teams or played for teams that we
don't expect to be good because things can just get random, right,
(21:34):
Like you know, maybe maybe um, you know, maybe the
Rangers only win twenty eight games, but in eighteen of
those games, keone Kella is available to come in and say,
it's just because that's the way things work out. And
you know, we we know, I mean, we know, just random,
weird stuff is gonna happen in a sixty game MLB season.
(21:54):
So I don't hate the idea of just like I'm
gonna bet Giovanni guy I goes, I'm gonna bet Mark
Lands and Nick Anderson, Brandon Kinseler, like I'm just gonna
go total uh you know rand on this and and
hope to bank one of these guys. I mean, I
just wonder if that's, uh, if that's a lot of
what we'll see this year because of the sixty game season,
(22:17):
Like it might not just be on the saves department.
It might just be on a lot of these, you know,
like most runs, most hits, uh, some of these the
statistics that have a lot of noise in them, you
might just see a lot of randomness saves it is
just one of them. So I'm mostly in agreement with you,
even though a lot of the names that you just mentioned,
(22:38):
I don't really have high end talent. So even Brandon Workman,
who I just mentioned recently, it's a guy that's wild.
It's a guy that overperformed last year. But it's a
guy that has a really stronghold on the job for
a pretty good team. And that's the reason why I
think you can make an argument for some of these guys. Yeah, um,
(22:58):
I think I think so as well. So I want
to take a look now at most strikeouts and uh,
we gotta we gotta give the people something other than
you know, Garrett Cole, Max Shres or Jacob deGrom, Justin
Verlander Um, and I will I'll lead with our boy,
the Cincinnati Reds, Trevor Bauer. Let this dude come out with,
you know, eight different pitches and he pitches every four days.
(23:21):
That's actually something some pictures have talked about, is you know,
just trying to cram starts in because they know they
don't have to save their arm for his long you know,
I think there's a chance some of these guys are
gonna pitch more often as opposed to less often in
the short season. I like the Trevor Bauer call um
a good bit at plus six d. Of course, a
(23:43):
lot of those have to do with price tag. So
that's the reason why you wouldn't want to go you know,
Garrett Cole or Max Schurz or Jacob Degram simply because
there's just there's just not a lot of value if
any they're like Cole is a plus two fifty to
be the regular season leader and strike outs, um, you know,
will he be. There's a really good chance that he is.
(24:03):
But you want to take into account that it's a
sixty game season that guys like I'll give you a
really good name, guys like a Tyler glass Now, Uh,
it's gonna have an opportunity to have a really good
season and not pitch a whole lot. So last year
Glass now Davis pitched, uh started twelve games and only
through for sixty innings because he got hurt. And Glass
(24:24):
Now typically is a guy that has gotten hurt in
the past. He throws really hard, has kind of a
funky delivery, but that also leads to a lot of strikeouts.
Last year, as we saw for him being a member
of the race, posted a thirty three percent k rate
and a six percent walk rate, had a very dominant
e r A. I think last now is not just
(24:46):
one of my favorites um for most strikeouts, but I
will be taking him as a potential aos I Young
candidate as well, because I think the sixty game season
benefits someone like him a lot. Yeah, um, I really
like that. And we're going to talk a little bit
about cy Young odds over in our next segment. Another
(25:07):
one of these dudes who I think might benefit from
you know, really probably only starting like ten games and
getting just can just juice his stuff up all the
way basically, you know, max effort. What about ten games
of max effort six innings Jose Burrios, you know, pretty
much doing nothing but trying to mow guys down. I
(25:28):
so I like that call because it is it is
a that's like a much longer name. Um, he's plus
three thousand as opposed to some of these other dudes
that we have mentioned that are like plus two thousand
or plus sixteen hundred or something like that. My main
concern with Barrios Davis is that last year he saw
(25:50):
a reduction on the k ring, and I mean the
the k rate typically is not as noisy as some
of the other statistics. But the thing is A Reels
is really young, and I'm not at the point to
say his kin is going to say where it was
at last year. So if you believe that there's a
bounce back coming up, I believe he has his stuff
(26:12):
to be the leader. He's not one of my favorite names,
but I do think that you can bet on Yeah.
I mean with Brios, it's all stuff. It's not it's
not been what he's put together in Major League baseball yet.
It's that you know, he's got that filthy breaking ball.
His fastball is able to get up to you know,
ninety nine miles an hour like with control. Uh, you know,
and he doesn't always have the easiest time throwing strikes,
(26:34):
but you know, when you don't throw a ton of strikes,
that means you're developing a lot of swing and miss stuff,
especially to get to the level of professional baseball where
he is at. But now we're going to go ahead
and head into our final break here on the Daily
Roado Hour on Sportscreen TV. When we return, we're gonna
stick with starting pitchers and we are going to take
a look at the a L and the n l
(26:55):
CY Young Awards so see you guys for that discussion.
On the other side of break in just about the
sports grid dot Com, betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than Get on the grid
(27:17):
sports grid dot Com. M hm hm, you're watching Sports
Grade Get on the Grade. Hello everyone, and welcome back
(27:38):
to the Daily rode Our here on sports Grade TV.
I'm Davis Mannock, joined today by Christopher Pacheco. Making our
way through the futures markets for the Major League Baseball season.
We're discussing some starting picture stuff. We were looking at
most strikeouts and we just left off talking about Jose
Barrios and Pacheco. You had another note you wanted to
(27:59):
drop on him. Yeah, I did. So. Here's the thing.
When you're evaluating guys that can lead the as far
as most strikeouts, you know that category. As we have
talked last last segment, we're talking about Brios as a
as a potential candidate. Uh, you know, someone that's young,
(28:21):
that has filthy stuff and could potentially see an increase
in k ray. So while I agree with you, David,
that I think that's a name to certainly consider, I
think you have to take into account what a guy
has done, because especially if it's a largish sample, which
I think for Burrio's at this point, we have close
(28:43):
to six hundred innings pitched at the major league level,
so we have a decent sample in our hands now.
And what Burrios has not been able to do is
have an elite k ray. And that's why I have
mentioned Tyler Glass now as a guy that could leave
this category because we have already seen that out of
(29:04):
Tyler Glass. Now. You know on k rate abuff thirty percent. Uh,
Burrios has posted a twenty four percent k rate as
his highest, so that has been his ceiling. That's not
to say that he cannot post a bigger k rate
than that. I think he probably will. The question is
can he go from twenty three percent, which is what
he did last year, to all of a sudden be
(29:25):
at thirty percent plus. My answer to that is going
to be known because I just don't see that big
of a rise in k rate, especially when you start
to look at the same kry that he's had over
his career, which has been he could probably go seven
percent UM over a season. I don't think he can
(29:46):
go thirty plus UM this season. And if a guy's
not gonna be at thirty plus, Davis, I'm not gonna
be considering him for that category, which is something that
you should ask yourself when you're when you're considering these
strikeout leaders. Do this? Do this? Does this picture have
a k Ray potential of plus? If he doesn't, you
probably shouldn't be bet again. Yeah then no chance. Yeah uh.
(30:09):
And I I am just a long term believer in
like I mean, dude, like I still play Vince Velasquez
and DFS, So like, you know, these these these young
um Latin American pictures with like filthy stuff, like I
just love those dudes like they're They're like one of
the things I love the most about baseball. So yeah,
I'm gonna be I'm gonna be all in on on
guys like Jose Brios. But I wanted I want us
(30:31):
to go. Now look at the cy young markets, and
I think the American League cy young market is crazy
because I think there are a lot of guys who
could win the amount of games needed and I think
there are a couple of guys who just seemed straight
up undervalued. One of those guys is glass Now. I
think if I was making the odds, I would make
glass Now the third favorite in a shortened season, Like
(30:54):
I would bet glass Now versus Bieber straight up. Um,
And I think glass Now is more likely with how
because we're not really sweating injury with him intense starts,
Like you know, if he gets injured, he gets injured.
But obviously you know in every less expected game it's
less likely that he will get hurt. So like I would,
I would definitely bet glass Now over his teammate Blake Snell. Um,
(31:16):
are you are you with me on that? So? I am,
But it's with a caveat right, Like we we have
to talk a bit more about that injury risk, um Davis,
because it is very real. You mentioned that reduced, it
is reduced in a sixty game season. Agree with that.
The challenge is that he has been hurt a lot.
(31:38):
It feels like every season he's hurt, so like there's
no guarantee that, like you know, say he makes five
starts and get gets hurt and that's sixth stars. Like
I think that is a possibility. Um. No matter the
reduction in games, he might just be an oft injured guy.
I think the sixty game season is going to help
him tremendously, and I do believe that's why you should
(32:01):
be considering him strongly over a hundred and sixty two games.
It's very difficult for me to consider Glass now because
of the high injury risk. Um, but I think that's
being baked in a little bit into his price tag,
which is the reason why you're seeing you know, plus
twelve hundred instead of you know, plus seven hundred or
plus eight hundred or something like that, which is where
(32:21):
Bieber and Mike Clevinger are. I think Bieber and Clevinger
are certainly deserving, but I think Glass now, if you
just watched him pitch um and you look at his stuff,
you'll understand why he has really really electric stuff, even
more electric than someone like Bieber and Clevinger. I think
Blake Snell being priced ahead of him does make a
(32:42):
lot of sense. I think Snell is still a very
good picture, but further money for the price tag giving
talent Glass now plus twelve hundred. Yeah, I love that one.
Former a l CY Young Winner Corey Kluber. He's on
a new team now, has moved away from the Indians
and is now starting pitcher for the Texas Rangers. Totally
broken last year, I mean broken, busted. Now do we
(33:04):
think there's injury stuff at play or do we think,
you know, Clueber had it and he lost it and
you know, we're just we're We're off Clueber entirely now.
Uh So, I'm awesome. I wanted a better price tag
that plus twenty one. Um, it's not that it's an
awful price tag, but I think if I'm looking at
(33:25):
this correctly, he is the tenth uh as far as
price tag on the Vandal sports book, he has the
tenth highest and at that point I'm out. Um, he's
pitching in a more difficult ballpark now. Um, I think
last year, well, while it might not be you know,
the end all beyall for him, I do think that
he's a better pitcher than when he performed last year.
(33:46):
Even moving forward, I don't think we're going to see
the same you know, clue version that we saw in
years previous where he was contending for the I Young
I think those days are probably passed him. Uh yeah, Yeah, no,
I I definitely, I definitely, uh I I tend to
I tend to agree with that one. I think the
(34:07):
deep guys you could bet in the ale and it
and it is tough because you know colever Lander, Bieber, Clevinger,
Snell Glass. Now, these dudes are are really strong. You know,
maybe you could see betting on Well, what do you
think about this idea short season. There's a chance a
closer could legit not give up a run over twenty appearances, right, like,
(34:28):
like seriously, what if Chapman pitches twenty five times and
gives up two runs the whole time? Could could a
reliever win? Um? I mean I think it's I think
it's a possibility. I think it's a real long shot though,
even over the course of sixty games. Um Like in Chapman,
(34:50):
by the way, is that plus seven thousand, so you
want to get it. It's a really long shot here.
But I still think a picture probably wins that Davis
like one, I mean one, at least one or two
of these dudes. Um at the top of the list,
it's probably gonna have a you know, a remarkable tent
to twelve starts. Um. So at that point, I think
(35:10):
I'm out on a closer. You I don't know. You'd
have to see, like most high end guys just like
struggle enough where a closer could probably pop up if
he if he's really don't. I basically think it would
mean a closer would have to have the insane dominant
season and there would have to be a bunch of
good but not great seasons from the guys at the top, right.
(35:33):
But that that's the thing. Like the guys at the top,
that's what I'm saying. I think one or two of
them are probably gonna hit. All of them are not
going to hit. But do you really see like all
these guys at the top have good but not great seasons.
That's that's a question that you probably have to ask
yourself if you're betting someone like a role as Chapman.
And by the way, if I if I am betting
(35:54):
a closer to win it, I think it's probably Chapman, right.
I don't think anyone could get up to that upside
as far as strikeout rate and the run prevention that
you're talking about, Like closers in general, they can run
into a lot of lucky stuff. A good example is
brand of Workman last year, who had like an array
under two, but most of his predictors were like above three.
(36:18):
So you can run into really lucky stuff, but you're
gonna have to have a really big ky rate. And
I think Chapman's really the only one that could do both. Yeah,
I think that's probably true. Okay, So n L N
L Cy Young, Well, I mean there are just such
massive favorites here, d Gram, Surezer, Bueller. I think Flarity
at at plus nine is terrible. But we we gotta
(36:40):
to out our boys, you know, Louis Castillo and Trevor Bauer, right,
because we're we're all aboard the Cincinnati Reds, you know,
We're we're all in on this team. We gotta think
those dudes can win enough games to to get there. Yes, Um,
like absolutely. The big question mark that I have with
these guys, Davis is the run prevention. Um, you know,
(37:04):
Bauer was shake here last year. Castillo has super electric stuff.
Super electric stuff challenges that ballpark. Uh, it's just like
a bandbox. It's really really small. Um. The competition as
far as the division is difficult. So those are some
of the concerns out there. Um, but I think the
(37:25):
stuff for these guys is really good and you know,
through ten to twelve starts, maybe they can put it
all together. Um, as far as you know that number
of starts, So I agree with you. I like those names. Um,
you know, at the top, like the Graham shirts are
that's so chalky and and it makes a lot of
sense why they would be at the very top. But
(37:45):
if you wanted to go longer, I think the Reds
guys make a lot of sense. You know, maybe Patrick
Corbin uh at plus eighteen eight hundred isn't the worst
one out there, Like he's still the number three and
the knaps rotation, but he has get an off stuff
to be able to put it all together. Yeah. In
terms of deep guys, I think Chris Paddock one. We
(38:08):
talked about him in our n L West preview show,
you know, just being like there's not gonna be any innings,
limitations or anything like that. I think the Braves guys,
you know, Siroka and Freed, those dudes are are pretty bad.
And then you know, I'm going to tout my boy
Robbie Ray. Just let's let let the dude. Let the
dude rack up strikeouts and uh if he gets lucky
with run prevention. He gets lucky with run prevention. And
(38:31):
that's a really good point that you make right there.
Maybe what you should be looking at when you're taking
these deep shots is guys that just miss a lot
of bats and the run prevention is not perfect Ray is.
It's he's pretty much the cover boy of that conversation.
He strikes out a bunch of dudes but tends to
(38:52):
be wild. What you need for him to do is
to have a good, like a lucky run prevention season.
Um the same with a lot of these guys that
you have to consider us long shots, like someone like
Danylson lamtent At plus, you're gonna need to do to
miss bats and just get lucky on the run prevention side. Whereas,
do you know, the very guys at the top, like
(39:12):
the gramin Scherzer, it's not that they're getting it lucky.
It's that they're just really good at run prevention. Right,
But some guys are gonna get lucky, you know, We
just know some guys are going to get lucky in
terms of run prevention. And Robbie Ray is going to
strike out enough guys while getting lucky with run prevention
that theoretically this would be in his range of outcomes,
but we are now going to go ahead and head
(39:33):
into our final break. There. You know, we've We've given
you plenty of Cincinnati Reds to wager on. Right We're
we're betting on Louis Castillo for n L s, I Young,
We're betting on right Sale I Glaciers for most saves.
We're all in on the Reds. But when we return
from break, we're gonna head over to the Gulf markets
on the Vanduel Sports Book and we're gonna take a
look at some of the future's odds for the upcoming
(39:55):
major championships across the PGA Tour. So we will get
to that conversation on the other side of breaks, you
guys in a few minutes. Sports grid dot Com betting
insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers
the most important topics in sports, waging, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more want the edge
(40:15):
than get on the grid sports grid dot Com, Hello everyone,
and welcome back to our final segment here on the
Daily Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. I am
Davis Maddock joined Today by Christopher Pacheco. Spent the first
couple of segments there walking through the futures market in
Major League Baseball for the season. We are still going
(40:38):
to be in the realm of the futures market, but
we're gonna go look at the three majors that are
going to be happening on US soil this year, Pacheco,
the PGA Championship, the US Open, and the Masters. This
is a big topic for people right now because Bryson d.
Shambo went for basically being you know, like twenty to
one to one, and now he is like the favorite
(41:01):
or the co favorite or you know, one of the
highest favorites in all of these events now because uh
you know, he just has been literally literally has just
been destroying these golf courses. I I love betting golf
futures and nothing feels better than watching a guy you
bet go from like eighty to one to twenty to
one and you get to hold that ticket. That must
be a great feeling, especially if you bought them so early. Davis,
(41:25):
you must feel like a hundred bucks right now. Um
uh yeah, I mean I have I have futures for
Bryson at all of the majors at deeper than twenty
to one. So I do I feel I feel very
good about that because his numbers now for the Masters
he's twelve to one, for the U S Open he
is fourteen to one, and for the U S p
(41:46):
g A Championship he is eleven to one. So I
am I am feeling pretty pretty good about these, probably
better even better than a hundred bucks. Um. Given the
fact that d Chamber has just balled out, um at
all all of these golf courses. I think some of
this was expected. I don't know if the like all
(42:06):
of it was expected this quickly, um, but it's certainly
been a treat to watch him development of the player
that he is today and just seeing him being favored
over other you know, household names like Dustin Johnson, John
Rom Justin Thomas. It's it's pretty remarkable. Um. So, David's
which one do you want to tackle first? Should we
(42:27):
talk the p g A Championship first? Yeah? I think
let's go. So the PGA Championship this year is being
played in UH San Francisco, and it is a part
seventy two golf course, so that means it has four
part fives it's gonna be just over probably seventy two
hundred yards is where it is going to play. From
the tips, Rory is the favorite at plus seven hundred.
(42:48):
Then we have Bryson at eleven to one, Brooks at
twelve to one, Dustin at twelve to one, Ram at
twelve the one, and JT and twelve the one. All
of those on the FanDuel sports book. I don't lie
any of those numbers. I don't like Tiger at eighteen
to one either. The first two guys that I like
here are Zander Schiffee at one and Can't Lay at one. Um,
(43:11):
I would actually bet Patrick Can't lay right now at
that number. Now I already, um, I have Can't Lay
at thirty three to one already it moved a little bit,
but you know, can't Ley is really one of the
best golfers that maybe is not exactly a household name,
but you know he basically makes the cut at you know,
(43:34):
every major and has like he was people forget. He
actually was kind of in contention at the Master's last
year and then faded off on the back nine on Sunday.
But Can't Lay as a guy that I love for
For this bet, My understanding is that cant Ley is
a very talented golfer, especially when you start to talk
(43:54):
about like TDA Green and some of those metrics. I
think he's just a terrible puttern. Is that is that accurate?
I mean he is, um you know, he is not
the best putter on tour, right, yeah, he is. I
would say he is one of the best guys in
terms of t to Green, in terms of strokes gained putting, though, yeah,
(44:16):
I'm gonna I'm gonna go pull up his PGA Tour
uh stats page right now. So last year on tour
when he got you know, full sample and he's not
been in a ton of events, he was second on
tour in strokes gained total. He was fifth in strokes
gained TDA Green, but twenty six in strokes gain putting.
So that pretty much tells the whole story right there.
(44:37):
Really kind of the best guy, one of the best
guys on tour in terms of getting the ball to
the green. Once he gets the ball in the green,
you know he's right about average. I don't like I
think betting guys like that makes a lot of sense
because you're not betting the outright chalk but you're still
betting a very talented golfer that just like can see
(44:59):
to get a together when when he puts, but at
some point you're hoping that he does and that bariance
is going in your favor. Uh. I really like the
Patrick Cantley bet at to one. I do wonder how
long are you willing to go on these bats, Davis,
because obviould say it's called yeah, yeah, like you do.
(45:22):
But but I'm saying, like I would be cautious because
I think there's probably like a certain line where I
start to get really uncomfortable with the names. Yeah. So um,
I think the type of guys you should be betting
are like very specific. So like, should you bet Matt
Coucher early? No, his number is not going to change.
(45:42):
Matt Coucher's number is gonna be what it is. But
someone like Daniel Berger, someone like Matthew Wolf, Uh, someone
like Dylan for Telly, someone like Corey Connors, like these
young guys who you like who have the potential to
win events in the in between the those are the
guys you want to be betting early because their potential
(46:03):
is so high relative to what their number is. So
like those are the guys that really you should be
betting early on. So yeah, I'm there with you. I
wonder if you believe that someone like Victor Hoveland can
win this big of an event, because he he is
fifty two one UM to win the p g A Championship.
(46:26):
He's been on an absolute tear and like all the
all the like the needs stuff, the Teta green stuff,
like all the statistics just kind of like are in
his favor. Um, it's just that he's not a household name,
but you're getting a fifty to one prize tag there.
What are your thoughts on him? So, for example, you know,
(46:48):
right now we have this event going on at mire
Field Village right now, the Workday Charity Open. If Hovland
wins this event, I bet his number would go down
to thirty three to one where you know Tommy Fleetwood is,
where Colin Morikawa is. I think we would see that
number basically sliced in half. I think the same is
true with Matthew wolf Um, the well the guy I
(47:08):
would bet early on right now. And to keep in mind,
the p GA Championship is going to be one of
these events that we expect to be lower scoring. Uh,
Corey Connors at a hundred and fifty two one would
be a guy that I would bet right now because
if he wins, you know, he's gonna be seventy five
to one. Um. Yeah, I think that makes a lot
of sounds like he's really really long on, not just
(47:30):
on the PGA Championship, but my assumption is he's gonna
be really long on all the majors. A guy that's young,
that that's talented, and you're right if he if he
ends up winning one of these events, all of a sudden,
the price act is gonna be cut in half. You're
gonna have to pay a much higher price tact. So
I'm I'm kind of there with you. Um, you want
to move over to the US Open or the Masters
before we finish off? Yeah, let's Uh So the US
(47:51):
Open is it's a miserable event to bet because it
tends to be basically the hardest tournament that these guys
are gonna play all year. Uh, there are very specific
guys that I think that you want to bet at
at that event, but there are guys you can get
better numbers on. So we just talked about how Victor
hoblind is fifty two one at the PGA Championship. Well,
(48:12):
he's sixty five to one to win this event, right,
so all of a sudden you're seeing a discount there. Um,
Eric van roy In a hundred and twenty one, he's
a really good South American golfer. I'm actually gonna bet
that one right now while we are on air here.
I really like that number. But uh, and and actually
I'm gonna throw out an old guy here as well.
(48:34):
If the course gets just terrible right like it like
the winning score is going to be plus two or
even par or something. I actually think that Russell Knox
could win a major along those lines. And uh, people,
people are not throwing out the Russell Knox name very
often there, But I am a I'm a long term
believer in him for sure. I am shocked you throughout
(48:54):
the name Russell Knox to win the US Open. That is,
that's probably the longest you'll go, is my assumption. That's
gonna be. You're gonna get a really great price tag. Yeah,
he's us he's two hundred, he's two and ten to
one um in this event. And I love I love
to bet deep guys. You know another thing you can
do is uh, you can bet, you can bet top
(49:16):
twenties and you know those are those are are not
out yet, but those are obviously. It's it's a little
bit fun. It's you know, it's better about top twenties
because they're actually just gonna happen more often. You're gonna
get paid off more often then, but this early you
know that they're not available, so you like to bet
the super long guys like that. My assumption is you
don't like to bet guys like say like a Patrick
(49:38):
Reid who's like forty one to one. Uh, you know,
have to he have to pedigree to win at least
one of these majors, perhaps not every year, but he
could like contend, you know, like that. That's a name
I kind of like. I don't think I would like
him in this course per se, but I think he
would be live to like at least content him one
(49:59):
of these. I agree with you. I think Read doesn't
have a great number right now at the US Open
because he's just having a really good year. Like he
just he's playing he's playing super well and a big
part of it is coming as a result of his putter.
And you know, anytime guys are writing super hot putters.
You know, basically you're just like, well, you know those
(50:20):
are those numbers are gonna be largely inflated. But I
don't I do not hate the number at forty one
to one at the US Open. Uh And and now
I want to go take a look at the majors,
and this is where or the masters. So this is
where the numbers get really bad because they know they
can get people to bet Tiger at twelve to one,
they can get people to bet Speed at sixteen to one,
(50:41):
they can get people to bet Zander at twenty one,
can't lay it to one. Like, the numbers here are
really tough. But as a result of the market getting
pinched up top, there are some really great names. You know,
I think a little bit deeper on one of the guys.
Who I am. I I just want to I want
to be bet I want to bet um Someng j
(51:03):
M at like every major for like forever, because I
think song JM is gonna win multiple majors in his career.
I don't know exactly win, I don't know what exact ones,
but I just really am long term in on song
j M. So Sung JM has a bigger price act
than Jason Day and somehow like I agree with that
(51:27):
because the days year to date has been pretty awful,
right Davis, So like I think I'm I'm pretty much
off of that. Like I think Jason Day umto to
one to win the US Open is awful, right, Like,
I don't, I don't understand it. It seems like he's
fallen off completely. I know he's contending right now in
(51:47):
the in the ongoing tournament that's going on today. Um,
but majors wise, like, do you think there's a bounce
back coming up for him in any any way, shape
or form. I am. I am not in on Jason Day.
I I am all the way out on him forever.
Oh so he Oh you think he's dusted for for good?
(52:08):
Then yeah, I just I think he was a guy
who putted really well for a long time and it's
it's over now like that that time, that time is
done for him. Okay that because that makes a lot
of sense. I was legitimately wondered why he was having
such an awful year. But my guess is once here
Putter goes kind of like same with Jordan's speak. Right
now that he's fallen off that big but once that
(52:31):
putter goes and that's all you have to rely on.
Good luck contending in these majors. Agree with you, I
don't really see it with Gay. I do like your
son J M. Call, I think I'm gonna stick with
the Victor Hovelin Call. I think he's still getting some
good price tags on these majors. Same in the Masters.
I think it's like sixty five to one. I'm not
sure if he can can like legitimately contend in one
(52:53):
of these, but I do like the price tags. Yeah,
all right, everyone, Thank you very much for watching and
listening to the daily road to hour here on sports
grid t the tons of futures talk as we get
excited for the return of professional sports team sports in
the United States of America. We are all super pumped
about it, and you know, good luck with your futures
(53:14):
bets and we will continue this discussion next week. Sports
grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more
want the edge than get on the grid. Sports grid
(53:34):
dot com
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
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sports grid dot Com Diamond Bets. Yes, we got baseball back.
(00:22):
And it's like that moment in the you know in
in the Avengers movies where she asked him what did
it cost you? And he and he says, everything you know?
And I don't wanted to go off everything that. I
just don't Dave, and I don't want to be that guy.
But if you truly love something, whether it be in
sports investment, whether it be pin Paul will have been
guarden Age, he truly loves you, find a way to
(00:43):
do it. My father always said that to me. The
Sports Grid Network, Hello everyone, and welcome to the Daily
Road to Hour. Here on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Mannock,
joined by Christopher Pacheco. We are continuing our look forward
at the Major League Baseball season. Yesterday on the show,
(01:03):
we covered a ton of World Series futures. We looked
at World Series matchups, um, we looked at some specific
team win totals, and we started to dig into player futures.
You know, we discussed some of the odds for American
League and National League MVP, but didn't yet get into
the Cy Young or some of the season leaders for hits, runs, saves,
(01:26):
and strikeouts. So we're gonna be diving back into MLB
player futures on the show. Then we're also going to
take a look at the futures markets for golf, you know,
looking at some of those major's markets because as Bryson D.
Shambo's you know, recent run has proven to us Pacheco,
there's definitely room for profitable odds still out there. And
then a little bit later in the show, we're also
(01:46):
going to dig into the futures markets for the National
Football League. But I want to start here on most
hits Pacheco, because I I expect this to be a
profitable market, you know, I I based they think that
the guy who leads the leads Major League Baseball for
most hits, it's not going to be a favorite because
(02:06):
hits are so random over sixty games. I am definitely
in agreement with you here, Davis. This feels like such
a random, noisy stat to begin with. So you know,
right off the bat, guys like Nolan Arronado and with
mary Field and you know, those guys who are at
(02:28):
the very top. I just I don't really see myself
betting them, Like, I think this is a really good,
uh like category to just kind of take some long
shots and hope they hit. Yeah, I definitely agree with you.
So I think, you know, one of the one of
the places where we should start looking is we should
(02:49):
start looking at guys with really low k rates and
really high batting average on balls and play, because that's
that those two combinations. So and also another thing is
guys who walk might be good for on base percentage,
but they're definitely not good for this category because we
we don't want dudes taking walks. We do not want
guys who are taking free bases. We would pretty much
(03:11):
we we want them to be swinging away. So the
first deep shot guy I saw, and I don't even
know if you'd probably have to email the FanDuel sports book.
And by the way, you know people don't know this.
You can email your sports book and they will create
odds for you, like, uh, you know, they they want
your money, they want to book your bets, especially long
(03:31):
shot bets, like if you want to give them five
dollars to weigh around something a hundred to one and
the book thinks it's like five dred to one, they
will they will definitely do that for you. Let me
throw this one out to you, Pacheco Lourie Lurie Garcia
three percent walk rate last year, three fifty three batting
average on balls and play and he is gonna play
(03:53):
every single day for the White Sox. He is gonna
be their second baseman or you know, utility and fielder
every single day. And this is the kind of grossness that,
by the way, the White Sox have three of the
top six guys from batting average and balls in play
last year, which I just think is hilarious. Well, I
think it wasn't Timmy Anderson the batting like batting average
(04:18):
like he had or something like like something just absurd.
And again it just goes to show you that, you know,
batting title and all that stuff, like it's so incredibly
noisy um as far as Luri Garcia goes, David, I
will agree with you on one thing. That is a
really gross name, really really gross name. I'm doing my
(04:38):
best to bring the grossness. But because like I mean,
there's there's a lot of guys on this list that
like I can buy into, Lurie Garcia is probably one
that I will not buy into. Even if he plays
every day, like certainly he does not strike out, Um,
he'll make a lot of contact. I just don't see
(04:59):
him being the MLB, you know, regular season hit leader
that I don't think he's going to be able to
do that one. Yeah, well you know, probably not. Okay,
let me throw, let me throw another. So okay, I
guess the first thing we should say is, you know,
probably like the number one thing you're looking for is
the guy who's gonna lead in hits. Is guy's got
(05:21):
to be a guy who plays literally every single day,
right like it, It literally needs to be this guy.
So probably younger than thirty, so you'd want to say,
like a seven year old player. Those guys are just
less likely to get days off. And you also probably
want a guy who might d H every once in
a while, because you know, in this short season, obviously
(05:41):
we're gonna see playing time just be kind of weird.
So I think a guy who can d H every
once in a while um, you know, might be might
be kind of interesting. Last year, the hit leaders in
the last year, like you know, the two guys who
had the most hits were Wit Maryfield and Raphael Devers,
which is kind of interesting because those are guys from
our two teams. I would not be interested in either
(06:05):
one of those guys. But one of the guys who
was near the leaderboard last year, who I actually think
you could bet would be Jorge Polanco, who because he
is a switch hitter is and and a middle in
fielder is like he I mean, he might play in
fifty eight of the twins sixty games. Basically, I don't
think that's a bad one. I think Polanco's He's he's
(06:27):
certainly uh you know, like an above probably slightly above
average hit or last year he actually hit like I believe,
well above average. That that is a good name to
throw out there. I think here's the thing, David, when so,
Jorge Polanco has the same odds to be the MLB
regular season hits leader as Mookie Betts, And I don't
(06:50):
know how the Dodgers lineup is going to look. My
guess is that Mookie will hit towards the top of
it and that's just that's really scary because I think bets,
you know, not only can can he just get on
on base at a really high clip, but he can
get on basebike just generating hits and leading off for
(07:11):
that offense is going to be really, like really insane
for him. So I think bets for the same prize
as Jorge Polanco, I would rather do do that one. Um.
I mean there's literally the same price on Fandal sports book.
So that that's the reason why I mentioned it. Um
even trade Turner at plus hundred or even going down
(07:32):
the list a little bit of Juan Soto at plus
thirty four hundred are other names that you know, they're
not super long shots. These are you know, these are
really good hitters, but at least they're not towards the
very top there. There's somewhere towards like the middle ish,
especially Soto. So I do like that one. Okay, another
one from the Al Central. I actually think this guy
(07:54):
is legitimately under price, and it is Jose Ramirez at
one super low k rate guy you know, for his
career eleven and a half percent. Uh. Now, his batting
average on balls in play the last two years has
gone way down as he has, he started to elevate
basically a little bit um and and that is a
problem for most hits because you know that's gonna turn
(08:16):
some of those you know, some of those doubles are
gonna be flyouts as your launch angle increases. But you know,
I think Jose Ramirez, it's very interesting to ask yourself,
you know, is he closer to the guy from twenty
seventeen and eighteen where he was you know, a hundred
forty six weighted runs created plus? Or do you think
last year is closer to his his true skill level
(08:37):
where he basically had that horrible cold streak but at
the end of the year was a middle of the
road style guy. So he had a three thirty four
weighted on base average, a one oh four weighted runs
created a plus. You know, I think that if you
think he is more like the seventeen eighteen version, then
I think that you should probably be betting on him
(08:59):
at one for most hits. Well, if if you look
at you know, his his T sixteen season, so before
he actually you know, broke out into being a legitimate
good hitter and like a like a high I show guy. Um,
he wasn't really doing much, so for him to do
(09:22):
what he did last year wasn't incredibly surprising. Um Um,
if he is going to rebound, my guess is he
has to do it now, Davis, because he haven't going
into this season. Uh, my guests, just from what I've
seen from Jose Ramirez and just like studying the numbers
is what we saw last year, it's probably more in
(09:44):
line with the hitter that he is. You know, he's
not theenen hitter that he was. Um, but he also
is in the vision either he is better than that.
So um, so I a plus fifty five hundred. I
don't hate it, but I do have to question the
upside because I don't think that he will fully return
(10:07):
to the seen version of Jose Ramirez. Yeah, I mean
I definitely think that you could be I think you
could be right about that for for sure. Some of
the other names in here that I thought were interesting.
Marcus Siemion. Last year he finished seventh in total hits.
And you know, he's a guy that we think about
(10:27):
of having been around in baseball for a really long
time because he started playing really young. But he is
only nine years old and started playing in for the
White Sox. But you know, he is a power speed
guy who has really worked on his k rate, you know,
only a thirteen percent k rate last year, upped his
walk rate to eleven percent, has had seasons of you know,
(10:50):
better batting average on balls and play. We really like
that oakland A's line. Which is another thing we should
mention is you know, being on a good team and
leading off for that team, you're gonna get a couple
extra late appearances. You know, you might that might be
worth fifteen extra plate appearances over the course of the season.
And those plate appearances are going to add up for
most hits. And that's why I mentioned the Mookie Bets
(11:11):
thing earlier, or even some of those Nationals guys that
you know hit towards the top of the lineup, because
I do think that ends up being very valuable, uh potentially,
not even potentially, I think it ends up being very
valuable for this category. Um. Similarly, you know someone like
Charlie Blackman who plays half his games. Blackman is a
(11:34):
really interesting one. Yeah. Yeah, for literally again st Prize
as Jorge Blanco Mookie Beats, Um, I don't think you're
getting much of a discount there, But I think Blackman
at plus does make some sense, um semi in I
I like, don't love. My understanding is he is probably
(11:56):
due for some decent regression going into the sea, but
he has plus. So one of those long shots. Um
that but that we had mentioned towards the top of
the show that that you probably should be taking in
this category. So I don't hate it. I'd probably like
saving in more than I do Jose Ramrez, So I'll
give you that one. Yeah, Um, I think there are
(12:19):
a couple other guys who you know might be worth
a better to you know, Nick Castianos. I think, as
we have talked about before, George Springer at seventy to
one seemed pretty interesting to me, just because you know,
we do expect the astros to be good. We expect
Springer to get a ton of plate appearances. We also expect,
you know, it's gonna be you know, some of these guys,
(12:41):
they're not going to get pitches to hit a ton,
you know, Mike Trout not going to see a ton
of pitches to hit sometimes, you know, especially if Anthony
Rendon is taking the day off. But Springer is going
to have you know that that batting order protection around him.
Another sneaky one might be Chris Bryant, who people view
as like a slugger, but that's not really what he is.
You know, he is a really high contact guy, you know,
(13:04):
a guy who generates basically, guy who generates a ton
of hits despite you know, he's only ever he's only
ever passed thirty home runs on two occasions. So I
kind of like Chris Bryant at fifty five to one
as well. But we are gonna we are gonna go
ahead and head into break here real quick on the
Daily Road to hour. In that first segment there, we
covered some most hits potential leaders for the sixty game
(13:27):
Major League Baseball season. When we're returned, we're going to
take a look over at pictures and look at most
saves and most most strikeouts on the Vandel Sports Book
in terms of their baseball futures betting markets. So we
will see you guys on the other side of break
in just a few moments here on the Daily Road
to our sports grid dot com betting insides and entertainment
(13:50):
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
topics in sports wagering real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome
back to Break Here on the daily Road to Hour
on sports Cred TV. I am Davis Mannick, joined today
(14:13):
by Christopher Pacheco. We are continuing our look at the
betting markets for the MLB season. Loads of futures markets
to be had out here. I think there are plenty
of profitable wagers. In the first segment, we ran through
the guys who we think are good bets to accumulate
the most hits in baseball in But now we're gonna
(14:35):
take a look over at the pictures Pacheco for and
I want to start with most saves because I think
this category is fascinating because if you find a guy
who has no competition in the bullpen, that's that's obviously massive,
you know, gets every safe chance for his team, but
also like a sleeper team that's gonna beat their win total.
(14:56):
I think you have a great chance of finding a
guy who can actually win this category because we expect
there to be, you know, really just so much variants
basically in saves agreed um. Should we start off with
Rice Elly Glaziers. Yeah, because we've been touting the Reds
ever since we started doing the show, So might as
(15:19):
well go with our boy, Rice Elly Glaziers, who's just
not going to have, you know, competition for says my.
My guess is he would have to struggle in a
ridiculous way right off the gate in order for the
Reds to just pull him off, you know, off off
that um off the closer role. Um. And I just
(15:39):
don't see it. I don't see it. I think Laziers
is a really good closer. I think you know, you
and I are very high on the Reds uh this
year in their division. Uh. And I think I Glacias
is a really good candidate to be the safe leader
this year. Yeah, I mean so, to take a look
at his last three seasons. Uh, thirty four saves last year,
uh in sixty seven innings pitched, thirty saves in seventy
(16:03):
two innings pitched the year before, eight saves in seventies
six innings pitched. Has a career walk rate of only
eight percent, a career k rate of twenty eight percent.
And you know, as relief pitchers, walk rates tend to
get inflated e r A s tend to get inflated,
you know basically one bad like literally one bad start
can kind of ruin or or one bad appearance can
(16:26):
kind of ruin your e r A. But for his career,
a three seventeen e r A. So that's, uh, you know,
that's that's pretty pretty good. Some of the projections for
saves for him. Um Depth Charts has him for eleven,
Steamer has him for eleven, a t C has him
for twelve, you know, basically appearing in just a shade
under half of the Reds games. And another thing is,
(16:46):
you know you kind of just have to think about
the pattern of like win wins happen. So you know,
if your team wins back to back games, that's actually
kind of bad luck as a closer because that means,
you know, in one of those games, maybe you're not
going to be able to appear. How where you know,
if your if your team is winning games three days apart,
well that's you know, way better for you, right, Like
it just that obviously is that you know that that
(17:07):
just shows that, uh, you have more time to get
in there. So so basically, I think betting favorites in
this category is terrible because it's it's gonna be so random. Yeah,
I mean, I think I'm there with you. Like if
you look at the very top of the leaderboard here
for for you know, as far as price tags are concerned,
(17:30):
on these closers, we have Chapman at plus six fifty,
Rover toe Zuna at plus six fifty, and then Kenny
Jansen and plus seven fifty. You know the I mean,
it's the Yankees, Houston and Dodgers closer at the very top,
so like that makes a lot of sense. Plus Chapman
is one of the most dominant releague pictures we've probably
(17:50):
ever seen, so like it makes a lot of sense
for him to be at the very top. But I
am mostly in agreement with you, Davis. I think Saves
it's still random enough where you could take some some
longer shots. So we mentioned Rcelly Glaziers as plus twelve hundred,
so that's like almost two times the price of something
like the older's Chapman. I think, you know how times
(18:12):
have changed. Greg Kimbro, who used to be one of
the best closers in the game, had a terrible season
last year for the Chicago Cubs. You know, it doesn't
really have the age for for you to feel like, Okay,
he's gonna really bounce back in a huge way. But
I mean he's not gonna have a lot of competition
in that role in mind, in my opinion, Um in
(18:34):
that Cubs closer role, because I just I don't think
the Cubs have a lot of talent um in order
to replace him. So if he does have a good
bounce back season, Davis, I don't hate that one. The
question you have to ask yourself, as you know, do
you like Kimber at the same price tag you like
Eglazias because they have the same one and I think
Iglazias at this point is like younger Um arguably is
(18:59):
pitching for the better team. So there are some question
marks there surrounding Craig Kimbroll. Yeah, no, I I um,
I definitely agree with you. I I would I would
certainly prefer Iglesias over kimberll Um. You know, I don't know,
there are not a ton of guys that are really
deep at this category because you know, it's it's so
related to winning games, and you know they're really great
(19:20):
closers like Hector Nerris, you know, was one of the
best relief pitchers in baseball last year. It's just gonna
be hard for him to get the necessary amount of saves,
you know, he would basically pretty much have to go
perfect on his opportunities to get there. A guy I
think who could be interesting I think is is Sean
Doolittle from the Washington Nationals. He had twenty nine saves
(19:42):
last season. We do think the Nationals, you know, we
think they're really strong this year. We think they have
a decent chance to, you know, again, be one of
these teams that heads, uh, you know when wins the
division basically, so, I think Sean doodle at Sean Doolittle
at seventeen to one would be another guy that I
would be interested in wagering. I'm there with you. I
(20:03):
do like Dolittle, and I do like the Nationals a lot.
Going into the season. I think they have a you know,
a fair shot to repeat, especially with the COVID nineteen
situation giving them even more rest. I think it's gonna
be a huge thing for the Hartist. As I've mentioned
on the show before, I agree with you on Doolittle.
I think Brandon Workman at plus two thousand is not
(20:24):
the worst one out there. Um, he's going to be
the Red Sox closer. And you know, the Red Sox
should still win twenty nine to thirty one games. They
should be you know somewhere around that. Um, I think
Workman because of the Red Sox bullpen, which is I
think last year they probably overperformed a little bit, but
(20:46):
they don't have a lot of household names. I don't
think he's gonna have a lot of competition. So you know,
if he has a solid season, he he doesn't have
to like, you know, miss a bunch of bats, right, David.
He doesn't have to have the best e r A.
He just has to give us the most saves. And
a big thing for that is do you have a
lot of competition for for that position. I don't think
Workman does. So I do like him at plus eight thousands.
(21:10):
I don't love it, though. I think I prefer do
little for nearly the same price. Yeah, um, I mean
I like the idea. I So I think one thing
you could do is just like I'm gonna bet all
the dudes who have the jobs, But are you know,
played for bad teams or played for teams that we
don't expect to be good because things can just get random, right,
(21:34):
Like you know, maybe maybe um, you know, maybe the
Rangers only win twenty eight games, but in eighteen of
those games, keone Kella is available to come in and say,
it's just because that's the way things work out. And
you know, we we know, I mean, we know, just random,
weird stuff is gonna happen in a sixty game MLB season.
(21:54):
So I don't hate the idea of just like I'm
gonna bet Giovanni guy I goes, I'm gonna bet Mark
Lands and Nick Anderson, Brandon Kinseler, like I'm just gonna
go total uh you know rand on this and and
hope to bank one of these guys. I mean, I
just wonder if that's, uh, if that's a lot of
what we'll see this year because of the sixty game season,
(22:17):
Like it might not just be on the saves department.
It might just be on a lot of these, you know,
like most runs, most hits, uh, some of these the
statistics that have a lot of noise in them, you
might just see a lot of randomness saves it is
just one of them. So I'm mostly in agreement with you,
even though a lot of the names that you just mentioned,
(22:38):
I don't really have high end talent. So even Brandon Workman,
who I just mentioned recently, it's a guy that's wild.
It's a guy that overperformed last year. But it's a
guy that has a really stronghold on the job for
a pretty good team. And that's the reason why I
think you can make an argument for some of these guys. Yeah, um,
(22:58):
I think I think so as well. So I want
to take a look now at most strikeouts and uh,
we gotta we gotta give the people something other than
you know, Garrett Cole, Max Shres or Jacob deGrom, Justin
Verlander Um, and I will I'll lead with our boy,
the Cincinnati Reds, Trevor Bauer. Let this dude come out with,
you know, eight different pitches and he pitches every four days.
(23:21):
That's actually something some pictures have talked about, is you know,
just trying to cram starts in because they know they
don't have to save their arm for his long you know,
I think there's a chance some of these guys are
gonna pitch more often as opposed to less often in
the short season. I like the Trevor Bauer call um
a good bit at plus six d. Of course, a
(23:43):
lot of those have to do with price tag. So
that's the reason why you wouldn't want to go you know,
Garrett Cole or Max Schurz or Jacob Degram simply because
there's just there's just not a lot of value if
any they're like Cole is a plus two fifty to
be the regular season leader and strike outs, um, you know,
will he be. There's a really good chance that he is.
(24:03):
But you want to take into account that it's a
sixty game season that guys like I'll give you a
really good name, guys like a Tyler glass Now, Uh,
it's gonna have an opportunity to have a really good
season and not pitch a whole lot. So last year
Glass now Davis pitched, uh started twelve games and only
through for sixty innings because he got hurt. And Glass
(24:24):
Now typically is a guy that has gotten hurt in
the past. He throws really hard, has kind of a
funky delivery, but that also leads to a lot of strikeouts.
Last year, as we saw for him being a member
of the race, posted a thirty three percent k rate
and a six percent walk rate, had a very dominant
e r A. I think last now is not just
(24:46):
one of my favorites um for most strikeouts, but I
will be taking him as a potential aos I Young
candidate as well, because I think the sixty game season
benefits someone like him a lot. Yeah, um, I really
like that. And we're going to talk a little bit
about cy Young odds over in our next segment. Another
(25:07):
one of these dudes who I think might benefit from
you know, really probably only starting like ten games and
getting just can just juice his stuff up all the
way basically, you know, max effort. What about ten games
of max effort six innings Jose Burrios, you know, pretty
much doing nothing but trying to mow guys down. I
(25:28):
so I like that call because it is it is
a that's like a much longer name. Um, he's plus
three thousand as opposed to some of these other dudes
that we have mentioned that are like plus two thousand
or plus sixteen hundred or something like that. My main
concern with Barrios Davis is that last year he saw
(25:50):
a reduction on the k ring, and I mean the
the k rate typically is not as noisy as some
of the other statistics. But the thing is A Reels
is really young, and I'm not at the point to
say his kin is going to say where it was
at last year. So if you believe that there's a
bounce back coming up, I believe he has his stuff
(26:12):
to be the leader. He's not one of my favorite names,
but I do think that you can bet on Yeah.
I mean with Brios, it's all stuff. It's not it's
not been what he's put together in Major League baseball yet.
It's that you know, he's got that filthy breaking ball.
His fastball is able to get up to you know,
ninety nine miles an hour like with control. Uh, you know,
and he doesn't always have the easiest time throwing strikes,
(26:34):
but you know, when you don't throw a ton of strikes,
that means you're developing a lot of swing and miss stuff,
especially to get to the level of professional baseball where
he is at. But now we're going to go ahead
and head into our final break here on the Daily
Roado Hour on Sportscreen TV. When we return, we're gonna
stick with starting pitchers and we are going to take
a look at the a L and the n l
(26:55):
CY Young Awards so see you guys for that discussion.
On the other side of break in just about the
sports grid dot Com, betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than Get on the grid
(27:17):
sports grid dot Com. M hm hm, you're watching Sports
Grade Get on the Grade. Hello everyone, and welcome back
(27:38):
to the Daily rode Our here on sports Grade TV.
I'm Davis Mannock, joined today by Christopher Pacheco. Making our
way through the futures markets for the Major League Baseball season.
We're discussing some starting picture stuff. We were looking at
most strikeouts and we just left off talking about Jose
Barrios and Pacheco. You had another note you wanted to
(27:59):
drop on him. Yeah, I did. So. Here's the thing.
When you're evaluating guys that can lead the as far
as most strikeouts, you know that category. As we have
talked last last segment, we're talking about Brios as a
as a potential candidate. Uh, you know, someone that's young,
(28:21):
that has filthy stuff and could potentially see an increase
in k ray. So while I agree with you, David,
that I think that's a name to certainly consider, I
think you have to take into account what a guy
has done, because especially if it's a largish sample, which
I think for Burrio's at this point, we have close
(28:43):
to six hundred innings pitched at the major league level,
so we have a decent sample in our hands now.
And what Burrios has not been able to do is
have an elite k ray. And that's why I have
mentioned Tyler Glass now as a guy that could leave
this category because we have already seen that out of
(29:04):
Tyler Glass. Now. You know on k rate abuff thirty percent. Uh,
Burrios has posted a twenty four percent k rate as
his highest, so that has been his ceiling. That's not
to say that he cannot post a bigger k rate
than that. I think he probably will. The question is
can he go from twenty three percent, which is what
he did last year, to all of a sudden be
(29:25):
at thirty percent plus. My answer to that is going
to be known because I just don't see that big
of a rise in k rate, especially when you start
to look at the same kry that he's had over
his career, which has been he could probably go seven
percent UM over a season. I don't think he can
(29:46):
go thirty plus UM this season. And if a guy's
not gonna be at thirty plus, Davis, I'm not gonna
be considering him for that category, which is something that
you should ask yourself when you're when you're considering these
strikeout leaders. Do this? Do this? Does this picture have
a k Ray potential of plus? If he doesn't, you
probably shouldn't be bet again. Yeah then no chance. Yeah uh.
(30:09):
And I I am just a long term believer in
like I mean, dude, like I still play Vince Velasquez
and DFS, So like, you know, these these these young
um Latin American pictures with like filthy stuff, like I
just love those dudes like they're They're like one of
the things I love the most about baseball. So yeah,
I'm gonna be I'm gonna be all in on on
guys like Jose Brios. But I wanted I want us
(30:31):
to go. Now look at the cy young markets, and
I think the American League cy young market is crazy
because I think there are a lot of guys who
could win the amount of games needed and I think
there are a couple of guys who just seemed straight
up undervalued. One of those guys is glass Now. I
think if I was making the odds, I would make
glass Now the third favorite in a shortened season, Like
(30:54):
I would bet glass Now versus Bieber straight up. Um,
And I think glass Now is more likely with how
because we're not really sweating injury with him intense starts,
Like you know, if he gets injured, he gets injured.
But obviously you know in every less expected game it's
less likely that he will get hurt. So like I would,
I would definitely bet glass Now over his teammate Blake Snell. Um,
(31:16):
are you are you with me on that? So? I am,
But it's with a caveat right, Like we we have
to talk a bit more about that injury risk, um Davis,
because it is very real. You mentioned that reduced, it
is reduced in a sixty game season. Agree with that.
The challenge is that he has been hurt a lot.
(31:38):
It feels like every season he's hurt, so like there's
no guarantee that, like you know, say he makes five
starts and get gets hurt and that's sixth stars. Like
I think that is a possibility. Um. No matter the
reduction in games, he might just be an oft injured guy.
I think the sixty game season is going to help
him tremendously, and I do believe that's why you should
(32:01):
be considering him strongly over a hundred and sixty two games.
It's very difficult for me to consider Glass now because
of the high injury risk. Um, but I think that's
being baked in a little bit into his price tag,
which is the reason why you're seeing you know, plus
twelve hundred instead of you know, plus seven hundred or
plus eight hundred or something like that, which is where
(32:21):
Bieber and Mike Clevinger are. I think Bieber and Clevinger
are certainly deserving, but I think Glass now, if you
just watched him pitch um and you look at his stuff,
you'll understand why he has really really electric stuff, even
more electric than someone like Bieber and Clevinger. I think
Blake Snell being priced ahead of him does make a
(32:42):
lot of sense. I think Snell is still a very
good picture, but further money for the price tag giving
talent Glass now plus twelve hundred. Yeah, I love that one.
Former a l CY Young Winner Corey Kluber. He's on
a new team now, has moved away from the Indians
and is now starting pitcher for the Texas Rangers. Totally
broken last year, I mean broken, busted. Now do we
(33:04):
think there's injury stuff at play or do we think,
you know, Clueber had it and he lost it and
you know, we're just we're We're off Clueber entirely now.
Uh So, I'm awesome. I wanted a better price tag
that plus twenty one. Um, it's not that it's an
awful price tag, but I think if I'm looking at
(33:25):
this correctly, he is the tenth uh as far as
price tag on the Vandal sports book, he has the
tenth highest and at that point I'm out. Um, he's
pitching in a more difficult ballpark now. Um, I think
last year, well, while it might not be you know,
the end all beyall for him, I do think that
he's a better pitcher than when he performed last year.
(33:46):
Even moving forward, I don't think we're going to see
the same you know, clue version that we saw in
years previous where he was contending for the I Young
I think those days are probably passed him. Uh yeah, Yeah, no,
I I definitely, I definitely, uh I I tend to
I tend to agree with that one. I think the
(34:07):
deep guys you could bet in the ale and it
and it is tough because you know colever Lander, Bieber, Clevinger,
Snell Glass. Now, these dudes are are really strong. You know,
maybe you could see betting on Well, what do you
think about this idea short season. There's a chance a
closer could legit not give up a run over twenty appearances, right, like,
(34:28):
like seriously, what if Chapman pitches twenty five times and
gives up two runs the whole time? Could could a
reliever win? Um? I mean I think it's I think
it's a possibility. I think it's a real long shot though,
even over the course of sixty games. Um Like in Chapman,
(34:50):
by the way, is that plus seven thousand, so you
want to get it. It's a really long shot here.
But I still think a picture probably wins that Davis
like one, I mean one, at least one or two
of these dudes. Um at the top of the list,
it's probably gonna have a you know, a remarkable tent
to twelve starts. Um. So at that point, I think
(35:10):
I'm out on a closer. You I don't know. You'd
have to see, like most high end guys just like
struggle enough where a closer could probably pop up if
he if he's really don't. I basically think it would
mean a closer would have to have the insane dominant
season and there would have to be a bunch of
good but not great seasons from the guys at the top, right.
(35:33):
But that that's the thing. Like the guys at the top,
that's what I'm saying. I think one or two of
them are probably gonna hit. All of them are not
going to hit. But do you really see like all
these guys at the top have good but not great seasons.
That's that's a question that you probably have to ask
yourself if you're betting someone like a role as Chapman.
And by the way, if I if I am betting
(35:54):
a closer to win it, I think it's probably Chapman, right.
I don't think anyone could get up to that upside
as far as strikeout rate and the run prevention that
you're talking about, Like closers in general, they can run
into a lot of lucky stuff. A good example is
brand of Workman last year, who had like an array
under two, but most of his predictors were like above three.
(36:18):
So you can run into really lucky stuff, but you're
gonna have to have a really big ky rate. And
I think Chapman's really the only one that could do both. Yeah,
I think that's probably true. Okay, So n L N
L Cy Young, Well, I mean there are just such
massive favorites here, d Gram, Surezer, Bueller. I think Flarity
at at plus nine is terrible. But we we gotta
(36:40):
to out our boys, you know, Louis Castillo and Trevor Bauer, right,
because we're we're all aboard the Cincinnati Reds, you know,
We're we're all in on this team. We gotta think
those dudes can win enough games to to get there. Yes, Um,
like absolutely. The big question mark that I have with
these guys, Davis is the run prevention. Um, you know,
(37:04):
Bauer was shake here last year. Castillo has super electric stuff.
Super electric stuff challenges that ballpark. Uh, it's just like
a bandbox. It's really really small. Um. The competition as
far as the division is difficult. So those are some
of the concerns out there. Um, but I think the
(37:25):
stuff for these guys is really good and you know,
through ten to twelve starts, maybe they can put it
all together. Um, as far as you know that number
of starts, So I agree with you. I like those names. Um,
you know, at the top, like the Graham shirts are
that's so chalky and and it makes a lot of
sense why they would be at the very top. But
(37:45):
if you wanted to go longer, I think the Reds
guys make a lot of sense. You know, maybe Patrick
Corbin uh at plus eighteen eight hundred isn't the worst
one out there, Like he's still the number three and
the knaps rotation, but he has get an off stuff
to be able to put it all together. Yeah. In
terms of deep guys, I think Chris Paddock one. We
(38:08):
talked about him in our n L West preview show,
you know, just being like there's not gonna be any innings,
limitations or anything like that. I think the Braves guys,
you know, Siroka and Freed, those dudes are are pretty bad.
And then you know, I'm going to tout my boy
Robbie Ray. Just let's let let the dude. Let the
dude rack up strikeouts and uh if he gets lucky
with run prevention. He gets lucky with run prevention. And
(38:31):
that's a really good point that you make right there.
Maybe what you should be looking at when you're taking
these deep shots is guys that just miss a lot
of bats and the run prevention is not perfect Ray is.
It's he's pretty much the cover boy of that conversation.
He strikes out a bunch of dudes but tends to
(38:52):
be wild. What you need for him to do is
to have a good, like a lucky run prevention season.
Um the same with a lot of these guys that
you have to consider us long shots, like someone like
Danylson lamtent At plus, you're gonna need to do to
miss bats and just get lucky on the run prevention side. Whereas,
do you know, the very guys at the top, like
(39:12):
the gramin Scherzer, it's not that they're getting it lucky.
It's that they're just really good at run prevention. Right,
But some guys are gonna get lucky, you know, We
just know some guys are going to get lucky in
terms of run prevention. And Robbie Ray is going to
strike out enough guys while getting lucky with run prevention
that theoretically this would be in his range of outcomes,
but we are now going to go ahead and head
(39:33):
into our final break. There. You know, we've We've given
you plenty of Cincinnati Reds to wager on. Right We're
we're betting on Louis Castillo for n L s, I Young,
We're betting on right Sale I Glaciers for most saves.
We're all in on the Reds. But when we return
from break, we're gonna head over to the Gulf markets
on the Vanduel Sports Book and we're gonna take a
look at some of the future's odds for the upcoming
(39:55):
major championships across the PGA Tour. So we will get
to that conversation on the other side of breaks, you
guys in a few minutes. Sports grid dot Com betting
insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers
the most important topics in sports, waging, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more want the edge
(40:15):
than get on the grid sports grid dot Com, Hello everyone,
and welcome back to our final segment here on the
Daily Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. I am
Davis Maddock joined Today by Christopher Pacheco. Spent the first
couple of segments there walking through the futures market in
Major League Baseball for the season. We are still going
(40:38):
to be in the realm of the futures market, but
we're gonna go look at the three majors that are
going to be happening on US soil this year, Pacheco,
the PGA Championship, the US Open, and the Masters. This
is a big topic for people right now because Bryson d.
Shambo went for basically being you know, like twenty to
one to one, and now he is like the favorite
(41:01):
or the co favorite or you know, one of the
highest favorites in all of these events now because uh
you know, he just has been literally literally has just
been destroying these golf courses. I I love betting golf
futures and nothing feels better than watching a guy you
bet go from like eighty to one to twenty to
one and you get to hold that ticket. That must
be a great feeling, especially if you bought them so early. Davis,
(41:25):
you must feel like a hundred bucks right now. Um
uh yeah, I mean I have I have futures for
Bryson at all of the majors at deeper than twenty
to one. So I do I feel I feel very
good about that because his numbers now for the Masters
he's twelve to one, for the U S Open he
is fourteen to one, and for the U S p
(41:46):
g A Championship he is eleven to one. So I
am I am feeling pretty pretty good about these, probably
better even better than a hundred bucks. Um. Given the
fact that d Chamber has just balled out, um at
all all of these golf courses. I think some of
this was expected. I don't know if the like all
(42:06):
of it was expected this quickly, um, but it's certainly
been a treat to watch him development of the player
that he is today and just seeing him being favored
over other you know, household names like Dustin Johnson, John
Rom Justin Thomas. It's it's pretty remarkable. Um. So, David's
which one do you want to tackle first? Should we
(42:27):
talk the p g A Championship first? Yeah? I think
let's go. So the PGA Championship this year is being
played in UH San Francisco, and it is a part
seventy two golf course, so that means it has four
part fives it's gonna be just over probably seventy two
hundred yards is where it is going to play. From
the tips, Rory is the favorite at plus seven hundred.
(42:48):
Then we have Bryson at eleven to one, Brooks at
twelve to one, Dustin at twelve to one, Ram at
twelve the one, and JT and twelve the one. All
of those on the FanDuel sports book. I don't lie
any of those numbers. I don't like Tiger at eighteen
to one either. The first two guys that I like
here are Zander Schiffee at one and Can't Lay at one. Um,
(43:11):
I would actually bet Patrick Can't lay right now at
that number. Now I already, um, I have Can't Lay
at thirty three to one already it moved a little bit,
but you know, can't Ley is really one of the
best golfers that maybe is not exactly a household name,
but you know he basically makes the cut at you know,
(43:34):
every major and has like he was people forget. He
actually was kind of in contention at the Master's last
year and then faded off on the back nine on Sunday.
But Can't Lay as a guy that I love for
For this bet, My understanding is that cant Ley is
a very talented golfer, especially when you start to talk
(43:54):
about like TDA Green and some of those metrics. I
think he's just a terrible puttern. Is that is that accurate?
I mean he is, um you know, he is not
the best putter on tour, right, yeah, he is. I
would say he is one of the best guys in
terms of t to Green, in terms of strokes gained putting, though, yeah,
(44:16):
I'm gonna I'm gonna go pull up his PGA Tour
uh stats page right now. So last year on tour
when he got you know, full sample and he's not
been in a ton of events, he was second on
tour in strokes gained total. He was fifth in strokes
gained TDA Green, but twenty six in strokes gain putting.
So that pretty much tells the whole story right there.
(44:37):
Really kind of the best guy, one of the best
guys on tour in terms of getting the ball to
the green. Once he gets the ball in the green,
you know he's right about average. I don't like I
think betting guys like that makes a lot of sense
because you're not betting the outright chalk but you're still
betting a very talented golfer that just like can see
(44:59):
to get a together when when he puts, but at
some point you're hoping that he does and that bariance
is going in your favor. Uh. I really like the
Patrick Cantley bet at to one. I do wonder how
long are you willing to go on these bats, Davis,
because obviould say it's called yeah, yeah, like you do.
(45:22):
But but I'm saying, like I would be cautious because
I think there's probably like a certain line where I
start to get really uncomfortable with the names. Yeah. So um,
I think the type of guys you should be betting
are like very specific. So like, should you bet Matt
Coucher early? No, his number is not going to change.
(45:42):
Matt Coucher's number is gonna be what it is. But
someone like Daniel Berger, someone like Matthew Wolf, Uh, someone
like Dylan for Telly, someone like Corey Connors, like these
young guys who you like who have the potential to
win events in the in between the those are the
guys you want to be betting early because their potential
(46:03):
is so high relative to what their number is. So
like those are the guys that really you should be
betting early on. So yeah, I'm there with you. I
wonder if you believe that someone like Victor Hoveland can
win this big of an event, because he he is
fifty two one UM to win the p g A Championship.
(46:26):
He's been on an absolute tear and like all the
all the like the needs stuff, the Teta green stuff,
like all the statistics just kind of like are in
his favor. Um, it's just that he's not a household name,
but you're getting a fifty to one prize tag there.
What are your thoughts on him? So, for example, you know,
(46:48):
right now we have this event going on at mire
Field Village right now, the Workday Charity Open. If Hovland
wins this event, I bet his number would go down
to thirty three to one where you know Tommy Fleetwood is,
where Colin Morikawa is. I think we would see that
number basically sliced in half. I think the same is
true with Matthew wolf Um, the well the guy I
(47:08):
would bet early on right now. And to keep in mind,
the p GA Championship is going to be one of
these events that we expect to be lower scoring. Uh,
Corey Connors at a hundred and fifty two one would
be a guy that I would bet right now because
if he wins, you know, he's gonna be seventy five
to one. Um. Yeah, I think that makes a lot
of sounds like he's really really long on, not just
(47:30):
on the PGA Championship, but my assumption is he's gonna
be really long on all the majors. A guy that's young,
that that's talented, and you're right if he if he
ends up winning one of these events, all of a sudden,
the price act is gonna be cut in half. You're
gonna have to pay a much higher price tact. So
I'm I'm kind of there with you. Um, you want
to move over to the US Open or the Masters
before we finish off? Yeah, let's Uh So the US
(47:51):
Open is it's a miserable event to bet because it
tends to be basically the hardest tournament that these guys
are gonna play all year. Uh, there are very specific
guys that I think that you want to bet at
at that event, but there are guys you can get
better numbers on. So we just talked about how Victor
hoblind is fifty two one at the PGA Championship. Well,
(48:12):
he's sixty five to one to win this event, right,
so all of a sudden you're seeing a discount there. Um,
Eric van roy In a hundred and twenty one, he's
a really good South American golfer. I'm actually gonna bet
that one right now while we are on air here.
I really like that number. But uh, and and actually
I'm gonna throw out an old guy here as well.
(48:34):
If the course gets just terrible right like it like
the winning score is going to be plus two or
even par or something. I actually think that Russell Knox
could win a major along those lines. And uh, people,
people are not throwing out the Russell Knox name very
often there, But I am a I'm a long term
believer in him for sure. I am shocked you throughout
(48:54):
the name Russell Knox to win the US Open. That is,
that's probably the longest you'll go, is my assumption. That's
gonna be. You're gonna get a really great price tag. Yeah,
he's us he's two hundred, he's two and ten to
one um in this event. And I love I love
to bet deep guys. You know another thing you can
do is uh, you can bet, you can bet top
(49:16):
twenties and you know those are those are are not
out yet, but those are obviously. It's it's a little
bit fun. It's you know, it's better about top twenties
because they're actually just gonna happen more often. You're gonna
get paid off more often then, but this early you
know that they're not available, so you like to bet
the super long guys like that. My assumption is you
don't like to bet guys like say like a Patrick
(49:38):
Reid who's like forty one to one. Uh, you know,
have to he have to pedigree to win at least
one of these majors, perhaps not every year, but he
could like contend, you know, like that. That's a name
I kind of like. I don't think I would like
him in this course per se, but I think he
would be live to like at least content him one
(49:59):
of these. I agree with you. I think Read doesn't
have a great number right now at the US Open
because he's just having a really good year. Like he
just he's playing he's playing super well and a big
part of it is coming as a result of his putter.
And you know, anytime guys are writing super hot putters.
You know, basically you're just like, well, you know those
(50:20):
are those numbers are gonna be largely inflated. But I
don't I do not hate the number at forty one
to one at the US Open. Uh And and now
I want to go take a look at the majors,
and this is where or the masters. So this is
where the numbers get really bad because they know they
can get people to bet Tiger at twelve to one,
they can get people to bet Speed at sixteen to one,
(50:41):
they can get people to bet Zander at twenty one,
can't lay it to one. Like, the numbers here are
really tough. But as a result of the market getting
pinched up top, there are some really great names. You know,
I think a little bit deeper on one of the guys.
Who I am. I I just want to I want
to be bet I want to bet um Someng j
(51:03):
M at like every major for like forever, because I
think song JM is gonna win multiple majors in his career.
I don't know exactly win, I don't know what exact ones,
but I just really am long term in on song
j M. So Sung JM has a bigger price act
than Jason Day and somehow like I agree with that
(51:27):
because the days year to date has been pretty awful,
right Davis, So like I think I'm I'm pretty much
off of that. Like I think Jason Day umto to
one to win the US Open is awful, right, Like,
I don't, I don't understand it. It seems like he's
fallen off completely. I know he's contending right now in
(51:47):
the in the ongoing tournament that's going on today. Um,
but majors wise, like, do you think there's a bounce
back coming up for him in any any way, shape
or form. I am. I am not in on Jason Day.
I I am all the way out on him forever.
Oh so he Oh you think he's dusted for for good?
(52:08):
Then yeah, I just I think he was a guy
who putted really well for a long time and it's
it's over now like that that time, that time is
done for him. Okay that because that makes a lot
of sense. I was legitimately wondered why he was having
such an awful year. But my guess is once here
Putter goes kind of like same with Jordan's speak. Right
now that he's fallen off that big but once that
(52:31):
putter goes and that's all you have to rely on.
Good luck contending in these majors. Agree with you, I
don't really see it with Gay. I do like your
son J M. Call, I think I'm gonna stick with
the Victor Hovelin Call. I think he's still getting some
good price tags on these majors. Same in the Masters.
I think it's like sixty five to one. I'm not
sure if he can can like legitimately contend in one
(52:53):
of these, but I do like the price tags. Yeah,
all right, everyone, Thank you very much for watching and
listening to the daily road to hour here on sports
grid t the tons of futures talk as we get
excited for the return of professional sports team sports in
the United States of America. We are all super pumped
about it, and you know, good luck with your futures
(53:14):
bets and we will continue this discussion next week. Sports
grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more
want the edge than get on the grid. Sports grid
(53:34):
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