August 2, 2020 • 48 mins
Mike Blewitt and George Kurtz look at the latest news around NFL and College Football.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Sports grid dot Com to another edition of Football Full Circle.
(00:22):
Mike Blewett, George Girtz thinking around the world of the
NFL this hour and updating on related stories, news notes,
everything else that's uh coming out these days. Obviously, we're
gonna look for We're going to continue to look for
new lines that are released. I think the NFL has
done a pretty good job. Vandel rather has done a
pretty good job of getting the NFL lines up. There's
(00:44):
been a lot for us to talk about. I think
we've hit on just about every topic. I think after
we go through our team previews, which we've done a
couple of times over, will continue to do that again.
Breakdown different awards, see if our minds have changed, who
can provide some value, you know, individual awards or divisions
and playoffs. I think we've tried to do that throughout
(01:04):
this process, but we'll continue to do it now. But
George the story of the day. The story that really
happened blew up this week was Jamal Adams. The Jamal
Adams story seems like it's coming to a head in
New York. Miniche Meta from the New York Daily News
had an exclusive interview view with him and as you
can see here from this tweet, and experienced GM and
(01:27):
absentee head coach and a web of bizarre broken promises
that fractured trust between the Jets, and they're all pro safety.
So let you comment first and then I'll get into
the specifics of the article. You know, my first thought
it was Mike that I was surprised this came out
on Friday. Friday is a news dump, right, so I
was one was more of the Sunday featured column for
(01:47):
a daily news or even Monday for that. I mean, listen,
I do take it with someone of a grain assault.
We know Jamal Adams wants to get paid and he
pretty much wants to get out of there, so he's
gonna say some things that may or may not be true.
He's extending the truth. I don't know, you know, so
I do wonder that there, but I mean he tortures everybody.
I mean it burns down the organization here, and he's
(02:09):
not all wrong. If he is exaggerating something, he's not
all wrong. We've heard these or effert rumors about this before.
We're not surprised by this. I do wonder now, is
does this push the Jets towards trading him or making
more of an effort to trade him. So we've heard
they they've come out and they said, hey, it's the
right deal comes along, we'll move them. Of course one picks,
(02:31):
you're gonna move the guy. But does this now make
them more proactive rather than we'll we'll wait to see
what we hear. Yeah. So I think it's fair to
say that this is absolutely a one sided story. This
is Adam's version of the events. Uh. Douglas and Case
refused to comment for this particular article. Perhaps they have
a different side of events, but there's some compelling stories
in here that make you think twice about doubting him.
(02:54):
So Adams confirmed to the Daily News on Thursday that
the Jets GM Joe Douglas had indeed conveyed his willing
us to move the team's best player if the right
deal prevents itself. After intense acrimony, this offseason. However, the
Jets still have not given Adams Camp permission to discuss
trade parameters with interested teams. Let's part one. Let's get
into a couple of the weird things he's saying. It's
(03:14):
mixed feelings. He loves the Jets fans. He's really effusive
with his praise for the Jets and the fans in particular,
but it is specifically regarding what he feels were uh
as put in the article here prevarications regarding the the
(03:34):
process of trying to get a new deal done, and
it seems as if there are many situations here. Well.
First of all, he blows up to Adam Gays. He
says he doesn't address the team Bob in the locker room.
He lets another coach address it. He doesn't feel like
he's the guy, that he's the right leader for this
organization to reach the promised land. Those are all quotes,
(03:55):
but really where it broke down was the Joe Douglas stuff. January,
Douglas told Adams Camp that he would go to ownership
management to initiate the process to craft a first proposal
for a contract extension. Seemed promising. No proposal. Weeks later,
no progress. Then he says, let's get together at the combine.
Different things are said. We want them all to be
(04:17):
a Jet for life was said publicly. Then it continues
to get to the point where there's still no proposal.
It's well, let's talk after the draft, and then it
becomes well, we really want to make sure that you're
committed to being a Jet and that you're a football
first guy. He's an All Pro, he's the best player
on the team. Everybody says he works his tail off.
(04:40):
And now they have strung it along. Whether Douglas couldn't
get the money from ownership or not, he was not honest,
it seems by this version of the events with Adams
all along saying hey, I'm having a really hard time.
I want to pay you. I can't give the money
right now. There he just feels lied to, And I
actually understand if this is all true, why he would
(05:00):
feel that way. Yeah, that's I wrote, Actually wrote that
down here. Feels like too right, because that's what he feels.
He feels like he at the very that they think
have been dishonest. Now, I do think Jamal has to realize, yes,
he may have been lied to, but Douglas is not
gonna go Listen, I wanted to pay you, but ownership
said no. They're gonna protect the owners. That's what they do.
If if Douglas want to say that, he'd be fired, right,
(05:23):
I mean his job as a gamers take the boats.
It's what he's got to do here. So it may
be that, you know, Johnson said no for whatever reason
they said no. I don't think they would because why
would you. I don't think they're not football people, right,
because I keep going once again, safety doesn't get paid
on deepers on a lot of teams. But that's not
gonna come ownership and ownership. It's not gonna say don't
pay the safety. They're not football people. That would come
(05:44):
from the GM. WE doesn't believe in paying a safety.
Are paying the running back on offense. So I find
kind of find that interesting. There about also three top
ten players in that draft that have just recently gotten paid,
Christian McAffrey, Pat Mahomes and Myles Garrett. He's an All
Pro player. You can even talk your right to some
extent about these safety is not getting paid. But he
(06:06):
is an exception. You can extend him and his deal
would be over before he's thirty years old. That isn't
a guy that is aging badly at the moment. He's
only played three seasons. I agree, Listen, I think the
man deserves to be paid. I think you show he
deserves to be paid. I think he knows he needs
to be paid. Welcoming in our radio audience here. Uh,
we'll close it out here in this segment, but there
(06:29):
there's really a lot of Look the fact that they
wouldn't comment for this story. I I don't think I
can begrudge them that. It's a sort of a hit
piece on them, specifically, particularly Gaze, but it really puts
Douglas in a bad light. But it seems that if
it seems specifically that there were cash flow issues with
the Jets, that we're going to be in place pre
(06:50):
pandemic free before all that went down, and it puts
them in a situation where Adams does feel lied to.
It's a really interesting article by made of the Daily News.
So I don't know what else to say, George, this
is a tough spot. I feel like they may have
to trade him. That's what you wanted. Ready, He's trying
to put them in the next spot where they have
no choice. Yeah, we're gonna come back. We'll wrap that
(07:11):
up and talk about the Houston Texans. Sports grid dot
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Com welcome back. Get on the grid and do so
(07:36):
on social media on Twitter at sports Gride, on Instagram
at sports grid TV. Eight mail as always goes to
add George Kurtz on Twitter. Niceties go to me at
Mike Blewett, So please follow and comment and uh, you know,
tell George what you think. Really give it to him,
like really tell him what's up, what you're thinking, and
(07:58):
uh he'll pass it along to me as necess serry. So, uh,
we're doing we're doing our last three team previews today.
We're going to continue to preview these teams, but we've
gone through is our third round of going through these teams,
talking through some of the issues. Some things haven't changed
for teams, others perspective has changed a little bit. And
(08:20):
if you watched our most recent episode on Saturday morning,
George and I were talking. Talking ourselves into the Detroit
Lions doesn't make that much sense, But as you start
talking about it, that makes a little bit more sense.
They had a whole bunch of guys come over, brand
new players that they've paid Matt Stafford coming back week division.
(08:41):
You know, I could talk myself into it at six
to one to win the division. It's not terrible. But
the Texans team, I don't know if we can talk
ourselves in or out of. It's an odd team. George
in with this respect, they've won a bunch of division
titles under Bill O'Brien and people still think he's terrible,
and they still think the teams thinks it doesn't They
(09:02):
have a bunch of really good players on the team. However,
they appear to have lost some ground to the Tennessee
Titans possibly and to the Colts definitely in my opinion. Uh,
They've obviously lost an explosive playmaker in DeAndre Hopkins. They're
on the verge of potentially extending DeShawn Watson, which would
be another log on the fire for Jamal Adams camp
(09:24):
if you had another player gets an extension, But that
appears to be coming close, and they have a whole
bunch of wide receivers that are sort of injury prone guys,
but big potential there. I actually do think this passing
attack could be something interesting this year. Yeah, we all
get on Bob right Milo, Brian, we all love to
(09:46):
get on him and listen, a lot of us rightfully deserved.
I mean, we're not gonna rehash to DeAndre Hopkins trade,
but that was a curious move, to say the least,
especially when the next day stuff on things goes for more.
So that's our issue there. They do manage to win,
they mean go far in the players where they do
win and get in Uh. Do I think that that
kind of team this year? No, mainly because of what
(10:06):
you said. I think Tennessee, assuming Ryan Tannehill is that
quarterback that they believe has passed them. I certainly they
can need Anapolis passed them, you know. And even though
I have worries about Philip Rivers as well. But I
think overall as a team, the Cults are good. So
I think they have problems in their division. I mean,
the first thing I think of the Texans here, we're
gonna find out about them real quick. Once again, as
you like to say on all these shows, we're going
(10:27):
to assume Week one's gonna happen in week one, you know, September,
whatever it is that's going to have September ten day ago.
We're gonna find out about the Texas real quick. They
opened at Kansas City, Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, Minnesota. It's the
hardest month of every of any team that we've previewed,
full playoff teams from last year, right, I mean, we're
gonna find out about them. If they can go two
(10:49):
and two, I'm a believer they'll be okay. But they
go one and three, oh and four, I'm not surprised.
I'm not surprised at les. I don't think there's any
way they be in Kansas City. I'm not gonna be
a woman next week, even with the extra time. You know,
then you gotta go at Pittsburgh. That's no fun. We
all know how good Pittsburgh was last year, or how
good they would have been if they just had a
quarterback last year. And then I don't think Minnesota is
(11:11):
a great team at all. We've discussed that yesterday. Right,
the Minnesota I think is an average football team. But
still they're probably just as good as you are. Yeah, yeah,
I agreed. I have a good defense and you still
as much as they've taken steps to address the offensive
line issues, I don't think either of us would consider
their offensive line completely fixed. Right. They have Laramie's unsol.
(11:34):
They gave him a huge deal. Uh. They have Nick
Martin there at center. Titus Howard was the first round
pick from last year, didn't play the full season. Some
questions whether or not he made a good He can
make a good transition to the NFL. But he's the
right tackle now. So the bottom line is they addressed
what was the most significant hole on the team over
the last two seasons. But plenty of talent on defense still.
(11:57):
J J. Watt there, even though a year older. A
lot of injuries have piled on Whitney Merciless. We have um.
As far as their draft picks were concerned, they had
very little, George. They traded a lot of draft picks away. Uh.
They have some that they will return next year, in
part due to the DeAndre Hopkins trade. But they really
(12:19):
came away from the draft. They got Ross Blacklock as
a defensive tackle in the second round. They had I
think they picked the least amount of players in the
entire NFL draft. There's only four or five additions to
the team via the draft. They didn't make big splashes
in free agency. You mentioned DeAndre Hopkins thing. I don't
know why I'm getting the vibe, and I've continue to
(12:43):
think this all off season that this is the year
that they're just going to unleash Deshaun Watson in a
way that they haven't before. It's not to say he
isn't super talented. We've all seen it. If you're a
fantasy player out there, he's a top five QB this
year in most drafts. It's just how he's being approached right,
super talented player. I just wonder if because they are
(13:08):
a year older on defense, you know, their defensive backfield
is that great, even though they have some talent up
and down the depth chart. I wonder if they're going
to give up more points this year. It's going to
put them in a position where they're not going to
run ball controlled offense with David Johnson and he's got
to try to light it up. It's why I like
Will Fuller in fantasy leagues. I think Brandon Cooks is
(13:30):
interesting too, when when you look at those receivers, Mike Fuller, Cooks, Cobs, Stills.
I mean talented, all right, it's a talented group. What
most NFL teams wouldn't mind having one or two of
these guys that's part of your receiving group. Their dumb
chart is really deep. But you're gonna say the but
the big butt, The big butt is as you already stated.
I mean you can play it over under. How many
(13:51):
games he's one of these guys going to play? They
all have injury histories. Yes, they're good when they're they're
but will they all beat how how many games all
four of them play together? That's another question you could
ask that that'll be I think you're right about the
show and Watson. First of all, I think for no Orther,
for Houston to be successful this season, Watson is going
to have to have his best season ever. He's got
to do some things that maybe he hasn't hasn't had
(14:13):
to do before. We saw some magic from him last year.
That offensive line, I thought it was average at best.
He had he was under pressure constantly, he was dancing around,
he was making plays all over the place. But he
doesn't have that Hopkins guy anymore. Yeah, nineties, one of
these other guys to truly step up, and I don't
know who that guy is going to be. Coax is
really more of a deep threat. Cobb just slot guy.
(14:34):
Stills isn't really another deep threat. Can Fuller be that guy? Maybe,
but I don't think he can, certainly not consistently there.
Nobody has that skill set right. DeAndre Hopkins, even if
he lacks some explosiveness that some of the other high
end wide receivers have, his ability to cash the ball
(14:54):
in traffic be a reliable possession receiver is sort of
unmatched some of the other guy us. Yeah, because how
could is not a burner. He reminds me of Michael Irvin.
Though he'll contest every bull he'll go, he'll win most
of those battles. You can trust him to go get it.
And I think that's something they're going to miss there. Now.
I know you and I different David Johnson a little bit.
I think Johnson is gonna be solid there. I think
(15:16):
you'll do some damage, but he's not. I have amount.
I have him on a fantasy team, so I need
him to do something. I think the offense could score
a whole bunch of points. I do think you're right.
I think this has to be, no doubt, no exceptions,
Deshaun Watson vertical passing game. That's how we're going to win.
Whatever factor David Johnson plays in that, so be it.
(15:40):
And it could be a whole bunch of touchdowns just
by way of getting the ball up and down the field.
But if Bill O'Brien doesn't gear everything towards this guy
throwing the ball more than he's ever thrown it before,
I think you're totally wasting all of this talent and
and and a surprisingly deep wide receiver room, which they'll
need because at least one of these guys will get hurt. Agreed,
(16:01):
And I think they better hope that J. J. Watt
is j J. Watt. They need him to be that
player where he was a game record fence. I don't
I don't think he could ever be that guy again,
but they needed to be that. We're pretty good you'll
they'll take that. But they need him to be that
game record again. They truly do. And I don't know
if that's coming. I just don't know if that comes.
(16:22):
So they gets a problem for them as well, where
their defense is solid but not great, right, I mean,
I think that's the issue there. I agree with you
about the offense. I think the Houston can't do what
Seattle does, but they sort of rope in Russell Wilson.
They need to let Watson go and be two Shawn
Watson and do what he has to do to win
football games. Yeah, it's it's become a team. And Bill
(16:43):
O'Brien's criticism as the GM of this team, I think, unfortunately,
it seems like he's just kind of chasing his tail
to catch up on the previous transactions that have been
made or not made properly. So you effectively didn't really
do much to this team, team that barely scraped by
the Bills last year in a home game. A bunch
(17:06):
of luck happened in that game. Whatever you got the
W and then despite having a huge lead against the Chiefs,
you had virtually no chance to win that game, which
seems impossible to say, but even when they were winning
by three touchdowns, you're like, that's probably just a matter
of time, and it happened. The Chiefs annihilated them from
that point on. So we'll talk about their divisional compadres next.
(17:28):
The Indianapolis Colts right here on the grid and f
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(18:07):
Back on the grid, Mike and George talking to you
about the Indianapolis Colts were welcoming in our radio audience
for this segment. Thank you for joining us. But we
to wrap up the Texans. George, one thing I for
I failed to do bad radio hosting was rip off
their odds. I mean, we are a gambling uh sports
wagering network, so I probably should have done that on
(18:30):
the Texans. I'll just do it quickly now. To win
the AMC South there three to one plus three hundred
behind the Titans and Colts. To win the NC Championship,
that is plus twenty four hundred. Uh. To win the
Super Bowl plus forty six hundred. That's long odds. Uh
they win. Total is seven and a half under minus
one twenty, so people are shading the under on that.
(18:51):
And to make the playoffs plus one forty four and
no minus. I think if you're I think, if you're
bullish on the Titans and you want it back DeShawn Watson,
that's not a terrible team to bet on right to
be the seventh seed in the playoffs. You could do
a double dip too, because if they're going to make
the playoffs, are gonna have to be over seven and
(19:11):
a half. That that's probably more the bet to make. Right.
They could miss the playoffs and still be over seven
and a half. You're probably and positive money. You're probably
on the right track there, But once again, you do
the math here. The Coats coming to play in this
as well. Who're gonna talk about next? We'd like to
give a division to Kansas City, Baltimore, and let's just
say Buffalo for giggles here. I understand Indianapolis wins the South,
(19:34):
so thin it's three playoff teams. New England's going to
be there, Pittsburgh is going to be there, Tennessee is
going to be there. I think Cleveland's going to be
in the mix here. Where does Houston fit in here?
They've gotta beat out three of these teams. Then I
don't know, we talked about their schedule their first four games.
I think they go one in three. I dosion last
(19:55):
year they did and they and they always managed. They
always played well against a division of poets, specifically Tennessee. Right,
some things go well there. But I don't know. I don't.
I just don't think this is going to be their year.
But I think that over on the seven hit is
right about on the line. I think they need to
go win seven or gonna win eight. Yeah, it's close.
(20:16):
I should I want to. I want to say, if
you're interested in the Texans, I think you go with
the over seven and a half to make the playoffs.
You get a little you know, a little bit of
juice there. You get a little juice on your side. Plus.
But I don't know. I'm with George. I don't think
it's there. But you as you talk through these, you
(20:37):
do correlation and try to say, well, what could happen
to Shaun Watson could take over and push them to
an extra couple of wins that they might not have otherwise.
Hat but in any event, uh colts. So we've talked
about it here for a couple of months at least.
The culture my favorite bet on the board for the
over U there have a total of eight and a half.
(21:00):
They that's over the over his minus one sixties. So
you're actually paying a lot of juice on it now.
But it's because the schedule lines up so well for them.
I do think they're going to win the division. All
of this falls apart if Brian Rikowski are Producer's favorite quarterback.
Phil Rivers does not play up to the standards of
Brian Rikowski has set so um that's really the big question.
(21:22):
We talked about three big questions, Phil Rivers, Yeah or nay.
I mean, it's funny during the break you're more of
a yea because oh, he's in a better situation. Brian
was more of a name because he thinks his arm
is going to fall off at any moment. Uh. I
mean when he has that shot put motion that he'd
like to throw the football, and it's always been strange.
(21:44):
It's always strange, I mean right and looking at it, it
it looks painful. It looks like he's the ball weighs
like pounds when he has to throw it each time.
It's just weird. Now to your point, he's playing indoors
for eight games, so there's nothing to worry about. The weather,
the eating atmosphere. It's offensive line is one of the
better in the league. He's not gonna feel the pressure
that he did when playing for the Los Angeles Chargers.
(22:07):
How about this, though, George, he also plays in at
Detroit and at Houston. That's ten. Jacksonville in January not
not terrible. It can be cold. It can be cold there,
but not terrible. I'm just saying we're building a case.
He's got a Vegas, Vegas in December at one at
(22:28):
four o'clock in the afternoon, at one o'clock in the afternoon,
it should be that cold. Isn't a dome there? They
at the Star Vegas is a dome. No, I don't
believe so, oh god, I will never want to play
in Vegas and September. Maybe I'm wrong. I saw it.
You were there too. It didn't look like a dome
to me. It's a dome. It is a dome, all right,
Brian said, don't. I'm sorry I messed up. I'm pretty
(22:52):
sure it is. It has to be, you know, you
gotta melt. But anyway, now you brought up during the
break and I kind of a I'm with you here
that I think he was trying to do too much
last year, trying to be the Philip Rivers well of
his youth and throwing the world down the field. Here,
he doesn't. He won't need to do that in Napolis.
Is a good overall team, right, I mean, I'm not
(23:12):
gonna say they have the defense of the Buffalo Bills
or the Ravens. No, but it's a good solid defense,
good solid offensive line. They have eighteen running backs, a
good staple of a wide receiver to throw too. This
is a good overall team. Rivers shouldn't feel the need
to have to be He doesn't have to do what
the show on Watson is gonna have to do. He
almost have to be a game manager. Just don't screw
it up and they'll win win games here. I like
the Colts a bunch this year. But that being said,
(23:35):
I like them really oil across the board, except they're
not gonna be Baltimore and they're not gonna be the Chiefs. Okay,
so yeah, it's obvious. It's obvious that the favorites from
the a f C are Kansas City and Baltimore for
a variety of reasons. Not the least of which are
their superstar quarterbacks. But if you're trying to build a
(23:56):
case for somebody else in the a f C to win, it, say,
I don't know, Chiefs have a bad game, Pat Mahomes
gets bumped off and they're out, or maybe you have
to bump Pat Mahomes off in Kansas City in January.
Would you rather bet on the Colts to go to
the super Bowl or this Dealers to go to the
(24:18):
super Bowl because they have identical odds of Plus, there
are the two a f C teams that we I
think can craft a narrative around them making it even
though we admit on the surface Baltimore and Kansas City
might be a little bit better. Yeah, I think the
problem for any team and you're you're sort of hitting
at this when you actually weren't hitting. You pretty much
said it. If Kansas City plays their best game, they win.
(24:40):
So you need the Homes and them to be off somehow,
just what the Saints have been off. Saints, we're the
best team. We thought twice Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh doesn't get enough
credit from last year because all we think goes many
Way eight and Nate and they were ugly on offense. Well,
that's unlucky to happen. This year they have been back.
We think of the uh. I don't know if it'll
(25:01):
be old Roethlisberg, but do we think he'll be able
to throw the football? Lord does nowhere on the behind
Seneca throw the football last year, So they'll have that back,
they'll have an offense. I actually worry more about the
defense taking a step back on Pittsburgh. I just wonder
if they won't have that same mentality he goes Ben's
back that sort of thing. So I think Pittsburg would
have a shot absolutely if they're up the bar. I
think Buffalo would have a shot, only he goes that
(25:23):
defense can be the lights out and really control the
game here at least not lit up forty to Kansas City.
But then keep me into the twenties, and if Josh
Allen can have a game that day and not do
silly things, they could be a threat. How about New England,
You know, I think they're a little uh. We don't
know what Kim was going to bring, but if he's
having a game that day and going Banania, running the
(25:44):
up and down the field because he can, again, they
could be a threat. They're actually the next the third
shortest odds of the a f C. I might have
skipped over there, but there plus seventeen hundred. Then Cold
Steelers are plus hundred. You mentioned the Bills at plus
thirty two hundred. This is all to win the Super Bowl.
If I if I switched it over to the conference winners,
it's Chiefs, Ravens, Pats, Colts, Steelers, Bills all in a row.
(26:06):
Those are the top six teams. Yeah, I said. The
thing is, the key is here is each one of
these teams needs things to go their way. Like I said,
Colts play their best game. Chiefs play their best game.
Chiefs win by twenty one. It's just scary when you
think about it. So they need the other Chiefs not
to play their best games, but my homes to be
off that day. Maybe on the defense is to be
a complete sive, which is possible. I said, all these
(26:28):
other teams that we talked about, Steelers, Cults, Bills. I
don't know if the Pats here, but the other three
teams they're all better overall teams in the Chiefs. And
what I mean by that is they all have a
good defense, good special teams, good offense, just that no
one has Pat Homes and what the offense can do
where that team is geared to score four to score forty,
we're gonna score thirty five points, score more than us
(26:50):
to beat us. That's the team wants to do, and
that's why it's tough for these other teams to do it.
Buffalo I think would have to maybe the best shot
because I think that defense can keep them the twenty four.
You know, I said, if Josh Allen can have a day,
that day be running, uses athleticism. I think you'll probably
need that from a quarterback. Athleticism. I know, Lamar Jackson.
We're not talking about the Baltimore Raiders. You already know
they're a good team. We're talking about other teams here.
(27:11):
The bad news for the league is that the not
Pat Mahomes played terrible for him in the Super Bowl
for three quarters, and they want against the great defense,
right right, They won by eleven points. That that's probably
terrible for three quarters. They won by eleven points and
the defense a great I said, he that's that's that's
(27:33):
the problem there. These other teams are talking about whether
it be Josh Allen, Ben Roethlisberger Uh, Philip Rivers can't
play like that. If they play like that, you're done.
Your quarterback probably needs to have a dan. I don't know.
I'm going to say the best game of his career.
That's probably crazy, but a damn good game to beat
my homes. Yeah. So, as far as the Colts odds
are concerned to win the Nancy South, they are favored,
but they're still at plus one thirty five. I think
(27:54):
it is my favorite bet for them, despite me saying
it's the easiest over on the board. You are paying
minus one sixty, which I think is the most heavily
juiced bet on the entire board right now. On fandal,
I could be wrong if I was looking at a
Jacksonville or a Cincinnati total Cincinnati, No, Jacksonville close. Uh No,
(28:20):
that is the worst. Actually, the Jacksonville under his minus
one seventy five. That's under five. So I think that's
the most heavily juice bet. But the Colts are close
there with the over. It's because the schedule just lines
up well. They're at Jacksonville to start Minnesota, the Jets, Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati,
bye week, Detroit, then Baltimore, Tennessee, Green Bay, Tennessee. That's
(28:41):
the tougher part of their schedule. Close out Houston, Vegas, Houston, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville.
There's a lot of ws on there. It doesn't mean
I think they're going fourteen and two. But if the
Colts went eleven and five, twelve and four, it would
not surprise me. I think it's an easy over for
that reason. Um, if you're getting frisky and you think
you know what they are going to challenge, I think
(29:03):
you you take a look at to win the MC Championship.
You don't know who they're gonna play in the super Bowl,
but hell, if you're gonna go all go all in,
go all in. But I think right now, to win
the South at plus one thirty five, i'd take that. Oh,
I agree with you completely. I think things have to
go really wrong for this team not to win nine games.
Apart that that's the issue, that's and that's a where
(29:25):
I think that's why we have an eight and a
half over under. It was the Philip Rivers, you know,
but I think they go he's gonna be move a
game manager this year. They're gonna reel him into him
not to make the mistakes. I think over All, this
team is really good and I think they're gonna get
to an incredible start Mike, where they can get on
that role that that true football team to do. They
played nobody really in the first six weeks. That's really
a truth. But they might lose one or two, but
(29:45):
they're going five and two the first second. Keep in
mind they added to Horace Buckner on defensive sacrifice their
first round pick for that. I'm telling you if the
if the over was nine and a half for the Colts,
I would definitely take the over. I feel that confident
and it will come back. We're gonna talk about the
of them are Ravens, who we hinted at throughout this
first hour were next on FFC. Right here on the
Grid Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at
(30:09):
your fingertips as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds, predicted betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com Back on the grid talking about
(30:31):
the Baltimore Ravens, our final team preview for now at
least uh and we're gonna spend a little bit of
time on this, because just as we were reviewing this
before we came on, Georgie said, as we were going
through the numbers, you and I both said, wow, eleven
and a half wind total. Let's take a look at
that schedule. Now, this team, uh boast the reigning m
(30:54):
v P. They obviously had a devastating loss in the
playoffs to the Tennessee Titans, but they ripped off fourteen
wins and even beat the Steelers or Robert Griffin in
weeks seventeen when they didn't have anything to play for
and the Steelers had everything to play for, so cherry
on top. They bumped the Steelers out of the playoffs
to boot. But the eleven and a half win total
(31:16):
always makes you pause to say, I don't really always
feel comfortable for predicting that teams are going to um
win twelve or more games or lose or lose twelve
or more games. Right, So when you're trying to get
into the totals to say a team is gonna win
four or less games or win twelve or more, that
starts to get to a point where like even great,
(31:38):
historically great football teams go twelve and four and just
rip off a bunch of wins in the playoffs, and
people are like, hey, remember that, Like the two thousand Ravens.
I don't know what their record was, uh, but I'd
imagine there are teams throughout history that went twelve and
four kicked everybody's tail in the playoffs, and we considered
them great. My point in saying all of this in
(32:01):
a circular manner is to say, it doesn't mean you
have to win four teen games to be a great team, George. No,
of course, the towelve and four us to be a
great season back in the day, twelve and four one
year of the division, eleven and five the first wild card.
Tennant Tate's got you the second wild card. She's like,
what always happened in every year here? I just think
that eleven and a half a You look at their schedule.
(32:23):
Their division is not not easy, all right. I know
they got Cincinnati, but Cleveland beat him once last year,
could easily do it again this year. Pittsburgh and Ball
to one of the better rivalries in the sport. That's
not a shocking with the split, I can see two
losses right there. They do play Kansas City a Monday night.
It is the Steelers had them beat two early in
the season. Juju fumbled in overtime, You did, uh? They
(32:44):
do play Kansas City, they play Philadelphia, they played Indianapolis,
New England, Tennessee, Dallas. I can easily see five losses here,
you know, and then they'll still be a damn good team.
But their schedule is tougher. One thing I don't like
to see is man their last three games of this season,
you know, if you need them to get that one
more loss. You know, they last three game to Jacksonville
(33:04):
Giants Cincinnati. Boy, that would be rough to if I'm
praying for one more loss to get my get my
under there. They caught a huge break. They caught a
huge break with the back half, with the back part
of the schedule here because even though they have Dallas,
it's a Thursday night game in their building. So they
get Dallas on a short week and they don't have
(33:24):
to what, No, they don't why what's the week before?
Oh they got to Thursday nighters and oh they're playing
on Thanksgiving? Correct that they always do that for a Dallas.
They give thursdays in a row. I don't know what theory,
what the purpose of that is. But Dallas always plays
back to back Thursdays. You're right, You're right. Uh so
the Ravens get the same deal here, so they both
(33:48):
play Thanksgiving, then they play each other the next week,
so it's not a short week. I guess throw that
out the window. But nonetheless, at least it is a
home game against Dallas, as you at at Cleveland, and
then the Jacksonville, New York Giants in Cincinnati close pretty good,
not not a not a difficult schedule down this stretch there,
(34:09):
And you're right, I think that would actually give me
pause and betting the under. But anytime a team goes
fourteen and two your unless they're the Patriots, you're expecting
some sort of regression. And even the Patriots weren't ripping
off fourteen win seasons every year. By the way, the
two thousand Ravens, I looked it up while you were talking,
twelve and four, twelve and four. Then they murdered everybody
(34:30):
in the playoffs, and they're an all time great team,
notably the defense. But nonetheless, um so, you're right. There
are a bunch of games in here, Chiefs, Philly, Indie, Dallas.
I mean, there are teams they're not gonna sweep the
Steelers again. Hopefully not. They're not gonna sweep the Steelers again.
It's unlikely. But that's a lot of games where are like,
(34:52):
I don't know, fifty fifty games. I think most of
these games, i'd probably give the edge to Baltimore. I
wouldn't call it more probably sixty forty. I given that edge.
They're they're they're a better team, but they're not gonna
win a wall. They're just not going to can I
get I do think they'll split with Pittsburgh. I think
they might split with Cleveland. Go four and two in
the division. That's two losses? Can I get three more?
(35:12):
Can they beat Kansas City on that Monday night? It
will be a game, you know, Can they beat Indianapolist
in Indianapolis? I know this year is weird. No fans,
probably no fans or minimum fans or cardboard cutouts, virtual fans,
whatever the hell they're gonna do these games. But it'll
be a different, different sort of feeling this year. I listen,
I love both. I keep saying that the number with
(35:32):
two team for me behind Kansas City. But I could
see them going eleven and five here That wouldn't shock me.
Here to quote, the schedule is rough. I mean that
they got one little section here Philadelphia at Philadelphia home
versus Pittsburgh, at Indianapolis, at New England, versus Tennessee at
Pittsburgh home versus Dallas. That's a lot of tough games
(35:54):
games in a wrong They're not They're not gonna win
all seven. They might go, hell, four and three would
be good. May they go five and two and that
if filance, it might be good enough to get you
your five losses overall. Yeah, you're right, You're right, that
is a tough stretch. They got the bye week at
a pretty good time actually for them. But it doesn't
mean that there's not some tough games in there. How
about concerns like as our producer Brian said unanimous m
(36:20):
v P last year, Lamar Jackson, Um, how about concerns
about the league catching up to him. He's obviously a
unique player. He's not the exact same skill set as
Pat Mahomes. I would I would submit that as tough
as it is to catch up to Lamar Jackson for
the defenses, I think Pat Mahomes is even tougher because
(36:41):
he's doing it almost exclusively with his arm right and
the way passing offenses are built, in the way the
NFL is built now, when a guy is just such
a superior pastor like that, it's going to be tough
for teams to ever be able to cover him for
a full game week after week after week. Lamar, I
don't know. Maybe they find a way to quell the
(37:03):
rushing abilities some You know, speed is always a great
equalizer in all sports. Man, when you know, you know,
when when you're even, you're leaving. There's the old thing.
And with Lamar, he's definitely leaving if he's even my
My worry with him is always going to be one hit.
You know, when is that one hit coming that either
hurt it, does hurt it right then, or slows him down.
(37:24):
He's not the same player anymore. You know, there's that season,
couple of weeks, a month, whatever it might be, it's
coming eventually. He was saying, with all these types of
running back, these types of quarterbacks, he's a slight guy.
He's not a big guy. He's not built like Cam Newton,
you know, that kind of body where he can take kids.
Maybe in with can we as we've seen it took years,
but eventually those hits took its toll. So that's always
gonna be my worry with Lamar. I mean, when you
(37:45):
look at the roster, your wide receivers and Marquis Brown, Steve,
that scares nobody. I understand Mark Andrews might be the
best tight end outside of Kelsey, uh, you know, Kittle,
maybe R's you know, but they're there. We see him
to don't scare you. So yeah, if I'm a defense,
I mean, what do you do? But the fantist guy
you have as a spy can't be a linebacker. He'll
(38:07):
run right by that guy. He was a quarterback, a safety,
a wide receiver. I don't know. Someone. I think someone's
gonna have to come up with something different to stop
this guy. He's so fast. Yeah, it's literally he's like
he's just and he cuts on a dime. He goes left,
stop going right. You know, that's the issue there. I
think the team I don't think there's a way to
stop him. Yet consistently we have seen him in the
(38:28):
playoffs not play well, right back to back playoffs. Now
he's sort of laid egg, but the regul season seen
the ball to him all that much. I don't think
the defensive system has been I don't want to stay
invented or creative. I think no one's thought of the
right way to stop him consistently yet. Yeah, so as
far as their rushing attack is concerned, mark Ingram is
still there. Everybody likes to forget about him. But they
(38:49):
did draft J. K. Dobbins, who could be either a
placement or a compliment. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill backing
him up extremely deep, deep at the running back position,
plus Lamar. Obviously, the rushing attack was tops in the
league last year, as evidenced by them winning all these games,
and they were able to run on teams and really
(39:09):
rack up a lot of yards. You did mention the
receiving options. Markis Brown was hurt last year, but he's slight.
He's a very explosive, but he's slight, smaller receiver, sort
of the Tyreek Hill mold, although would never compare anybody
that speed, but Myles Boykin there can he take a
step forward. They drafted Devin Duverney. I think you're right
(39:30):
on the Andrews piece. He's right there kind of knocking
on the door. By the way. We we've talked about
him in the past two He's the type one diabetics,
so he is planning on playing despite being in a
high risk category for covid um. Defensively, they had the
dalliance with Michael Brocker's He's back in l A. They
drafted Patrick Queen. I think they got a break there,
(39:52):
he felt to them. They also drafted Malik Harrison in
the third round, justin Matt if we be a peak
way in the third round, so they have some interesting
long term pieces there. As far as their defense is concerned,
I think their defensive line took a hit um, but
at linebacker Matt Juden's still there, Marlin Marlon Humphrey at corner,
(40:14):
and Earl Thomas still there, along with Marcus Peters as well.
I think they have very talented, at least very talented
front line of the defense. So there aren't a lot
of holes on this team. We're just looking for them
to get over the hump in the playoffs, right, I
think it's exactly it, and I think that is more
on Lamar Jackson than anything else. Back to back playoffs
(40:35):
now he has not played that well. I know his
his stats at the end of the game look great.
Of the the loss last year that eliminated them. But
when the game mattered, he didn't play. Well, yeah, that's
really what will matters. They were they were empty stats. Uh.
I would say, Dak Prescott stats in losses, they just
didn't mean anything at the end of the game. The
game was dare you throw your own guy under the bus?
(40:56):
That's what I disliked about. Prescott stayed over and over again.
A lot of those stats are empty. That's you know,
when played good teams, he woul didn't show up a
little didn't matter anymore. So back to the Ravens though,
I think the other defense is I would say very good,
but not great. There's not a two thousand Ravens, but
it's more than acceptable. I mean the secondary is good. Uh,
the secondary mate might take chances. Marcus Peters is a
(41:16):
guest guy and he's trying to read the past coming.
If you got you do a double move, you might
have something there on Marcus Peters, Earl Thomas getting up there.
A little little long in the tooth, but still a
very good. Same thing. I agree with you about the
defensive line. I think it did take some hits. We'll
see how that works out. The linebackers are getting Patrick
Queen will see how he comes out here. Overall, what
(41:37):
you said, it's perfect. There's no obvious weakness here. Yeah,
they did add Calais Campbell to the defensive line. By
the way, I'm not disrespecting him. It's just they had
other pieces that they had counted on, and they signed
Derek Wolfe as like a playing c after they had
traded one of their defensive line to the Steelers and
Michael Brockers went back to l A. So it's not
the it's not the defensive line they had craft or
(41:58):
they wanted. So sorry, I need the Ravens, look said,
I think they're they're still behind the Chiefs, and I
think they'll always be behind the Chiefs until Lamar Jackson
proves he's ready to play to that level. He has
to because once again, the Ravens, Uh, the defense is
not the Buffalo Bills. I think the Bills could be
maybe the best defense in the league. The Ravens maybe
top five, but they're gonna give a point to the Chiefs. Yeah,
(42:21):
I think so. Lamar Jackson has to be able to
uh overcome that to win the NFC North. At minus
two d I don't love it. I think my favorite
bet for them is probably to win the NC Championship
at plus three forty. They don't have to win the
Super Bowl. I just need them to play better and
beat the Chiefs, which I think is possible. I think
those teams can be hang over. She just could have
(42:43):
a hangover. We don't know. And I said the Ravens.
Maybe maybe this coincidence that Lamar Jackson didn't play well
against the Charges two years ago and the Titans last year.
Maybe he'll play you know, hey, just that big games
this year, is gonna have a good game and you
could very well beat the Chiefs. We have seen the
Chiefs not play their best in the playoffs either, right,
not always? Now, you mentioned they were behind to Houston
(43:03):
before that. You know, it's it's funny how you mentioned that.
You absolutely right. We all knew it was coming back
in this game, so no matter of what they were
gonna win by. They didn't play all that great in
the well either, so it's more possible Lamar m v
p s plus seven hundred for him to run it back.
So seven and one. I wanted to make one point.
I should have made this earlier, but in a season
like this where we're obviously we might not have any
(43:25):
preseason games, and we might be in a situation where
you don't have all these undrafted free agents making the team.
It's effectively the same team that hasn't seen each other
that much. Four weeks, five weeks, let's go, let's get
it started. I think coaches like John Harbaugh that wins
basically all of his preseason games and is extremely well coached,
I think are going to have advantages. I think this
(43:48):
is a year to be pretty chalky with the teams
that were good last year, didn't lose a ton of
pieces and can run it back with the good coaching system.
So I don't I do think that teams like ball
to More in New England, which are well prepared regardless
of the scenario, are at an advantage. I really do
think that about the Ravens, it's just a twelve is
(44:10):
a lot. I doubt. I have questions about them going over,
but if you pressed me, I would say they probably
hit twelve. I'm going on, all right, come back to
wrap up this hour of FFC. Right after this on
the Grid sports grid dot Com, Betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
(44:31):
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid. Sports grid dot Com Back on the Grid.
Closing out this edition of Football Full Circle, Georgia, I
wanted to go back to my point about the Ravens
(44:53):
and these well prepared teams and what I think, Look,
it may very well translate to the Ravens are o
her on the year because they're well prepared for John Harbaugh.
Where I really think that you're going to find value
as a better this year, as hard as the NFL
season is, is your ability to utilize that knowledge on
(45:15):
teams early doesn't mean like, well, they're gonna be a
well prepared team, so they're gonna rip off twelve thirteen wins.
Where I think it really comes into play is what
you saw them due to Miami last year. It was like,
my favorite bet of the entire NFL season was Baltimore
Miami Week one. Miami just traded half the team. John
Harbaugh never loses a preseason game, and they were playing
(45:37):
each other in Week one. I didn't care that it
was hot in Miami, it was like, this team is unprepared.
This team is prepared. They beat him by six touchdowns.
So I think you can look at teams like New England,
like Baltimore. Obviously we'll have to take the spreads into
account and just bank on those well prepared teams to
be good early in the season, even if it doesn't
(45:57):
work out long term. Does that make sense? Oh, you know,
you know I agree with you in this. I think
there are gonna be some very weird games this season,
especially early in the season, because no mini camps, you know,
no practices. We're praying or hoping everything started stun but
even that is not going to be normal. There's gonna
be what ten panted practices, that's it. No preseason games.
(46:20):
I think football is gonna be awful. Even if they
play in September, it's gonna be awful football. They're gonna
some games that it's just like this team has no
idea what they're doing. They're not ready, they're not they
can't tackle anybody, they can't do this, you know, they
can't complete a handoff, stuff like that. I think it's
gonna be pretty bad football for the first month of September.
So yes, I think any team that had the same
coaching staff, same players, pretty much, you know, the same
(46:41):
amount of snaps returning from last season, it's going to
be at a significant advantage, especially early going this season.
And you might be watching us and saying, well, what
are you saying that the chalk what What's what's interesting
about that? I'm saying, don't be scared of it early
in the year. I think that these teams that are
well prepared could be get you some easy wins early. Baltimore, Pittsburgh,
(47:04):
New England on the NFC. I like the way Shanahan
coaches Sean Payton throw another one out there. There's a
couple of other guys. You know, the Chiefs are just
so damn scounton. They're just gonna beat everybody anyway. But
I think you should really keep that in mind early
in the season. The Ravens beat the Dolphin Toy six
touchdowns last year, and in Week one they weren't even
(47:25):
favored by a touchdown. I just think you need to
look at that early, particularly this season. Don't be afraid
of the favorites early as you might be in a
normal season. Well that's it for this hour on behalf
of George Kurtz and producer Brian Rokowsky on Mike Lewett,
thanks for watching FFC Right here on the Grid Sports
grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
(47:47):
seven as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
Sports grid dot Com tho
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips seven as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid.
Sports grid dot Com to another edition of Football Full Circle.
(00:22):
Mike Blewett, George Girtz thinking around the world of the
NFL this hour and updating on related stories, news notes,
everything else that's uh coming out these days. Obviously, we're
gonna look for We're going to continue to look for
new lines that are released. I think the NFL has
done a pretty good job. Vandel rather has done a
pretty good job of getting the NFL lines up. There's
(00:44):
been a lot for us to talk about. I think
we've hit on just about every topic. I think after
we go through our team previews, which we've done a
couple of times over, will continue to do that again.
Breakdown different awards, see if our minds have changed, who
can provide some value, you know, individual awards or divisions
and playoffs. I think we've tried to do that throughout
(01:04):
this process, but we'll continue to do it now. But
George the story of the day. The story that really
happened blew up this week was Jamal Adams. The Jamal
Adams story seems like it's coming to a head in
New York. Miniche Meta from the New York Daily News
had an exclusive interview view with him and as you
can see here from this tweet, and experienced GM and
(01:27):
absentee head coach and a web of bizarre broken promises
that fractured trust between the Jets, and they're all pro safety.
So let you comment first and then I'll get into
the specifics of the article. You know, my first thought
it was Mike that I was surprised this came out
on Friday. Friday is a news dump, right, so I
was one was more of the Sunday featured column for
(01:47):
a daily news or even Monday for that. I mean, listen,
I do take it with someone of a grain assault.
We know Jamal Adams wants to get paid and he
pretty much wants to get out of there, so he's
gonna say some things that may or may not be true.
He's extending the truth. I don't know, you know, so
I do wonder that there, but I mean he tortures everybody.
I mean it burns down the organization here, and he's
(02:09):
not all wrong. If he is exaggerating something, he's not
all wrong. We've heard these or effert rumors about this before.
We're not surprised by this. I do wonder now, is
does this push the Jets towards trading him or making
more of an effort to trade him. So we've heard
they they've come out and they said, hey, it's the
right deal comes along, we'll move them. Of course one picks,
(02:31):
you're gonna move the guy. But does this now make
them more proactive rather than we'll we'll wait to see
what we hear. Yeah. So I think it's fair to
say that this is absolutely a one sided story. This
is Adam's version of the events. Uh. Douglas and Case
refused to comment for this particular article. Perhaps they have
a different side of events, but there's some compelling stories
in here that make you think twice about doubting him.
(02:54):
So Adams confirmed to the Daily News on Thursday that
the Jets GM Joe Douglas had indeed conveyed his willing
us to move the team's best player if the right
deal prevents itself. After intense acrimony, this offseason. However, the
Jets still have not given Adams Camp permission to discuss
trade parameters with interested teams. Let's part one. Let's get
into a couple of the weird things he's saying. It's
(03:14):
mixed feelings. He loves the Jets fans. He's really effusive
with his praise for the Jets and the fans in particular,
but it is specifically regarding what he feels were uh
as put in the article here prevarications regarding the the
(03:34):
process of trying to get a new deal done, and
it seems as if there are many situations here. Well.
First of all, he blows up to Adam Gays. He
says he doesn't address the team Bob in the locker room.
He lets another coach address it. He doesn't feel like
he's the guy, that he's the right leader for this
organization to reach the promised land. Those are all quotes,
(03:55):
but really where it broke down was the Joe Douglas stuff. January,
Douglas told Adams Camp that he would go to ownership
management to initiate the process to craft a first proposal
for a contract extension. Seemed promising. No proposal. Weeks later,
no progress. Then he says, let's get together at the combine.
Different things are said. We want them all to be
(04:17):
a Jet for life was said publicly. Then it continues
to get to the point where there's still no proposal.
It's well, let's talk after the draft, and then it
becomes well, we really want to make sure that you're
committed to being a Jet and that you're a football
first guy. He's an All Pro, he's the best player
on the team. Everybody says he works his tail off.
(04:40):
And now they have strung it along. Whether Douglas couldn't
get the money from ownership or not, he was not honest,
it seems by this version of the events with Adams
all along saying hey, I'm having a really hard time.
I want to pay you. I can't give the money
right now. There he just feels lied to, And I
actually understand if this is all true, why he would
(05:00):
feel that way. Yeah, that's I wrote, Actually wrote that
down here. Feels like too right, because that's what he feels.
He feels like he at the very that they think
have been dishonest. Now, I do think Jamal has to realize, yes,
he may have been lied to, but Douglas is not
gonna go Listen, I wanted to pay you, but ownership
said no. They're gonna protect the owners. That's what they do.
If if Douglas want to say that, he'd be fired, right,
(05:23):
I mean his job as a gamers take the boats.
It's what he's got to do here. So it may
be that, you know, Johnson said no for whatever reason
they said no. I don't think they would because why
would you. I don't think they're not football people, right,
because I keep going once again, safety doesn't get paid
on deepers on a lot of teams. But that's not
gonna come ownership and ownership. It's not gonna say don't
pay the safety. They're not football people. That would come
(05:44):
from the GM. WE doesn't believe in paying a safety.
Are paying the running back on offense. So I find
kind of find that interesting. There about also three top
ten players in that draft that have just recently gotten paid,
Christian McAffrey, Pat Mahomes and Myles Garrett. He's an All
Pro player. You can even talk your right to some
extent about these safety is not getting paid. But he
(06:06):
is an exception. You can extend him and his deal
would be over before he's thirty years old. That isn't
a guy that is aging badly at the moment. He's
only played three seasons. I agree, Listen, I think the
man deserves to be paid. I think you show he
deserves to be paid. I think he knows he needs
to be paid. Welcoming in our radio audience here. Uh,
we'll close it out here in this segment, but there
(06:29):
there's really a lot of Look the fact that they
wouldn't comment for this story. I I don't think I
can begrudge them that. It's a sort of a hit
piece on them, specifically, particularly Gaze, but it really puts
Douglas in a bad light. But it seems that if
it seems specifically that there were cash flow issues with
the Jets, that we're going to be in place pre
(06:50):
pandemic free before all that went down, and it puts
them in a situation where Adams does feel lied to.
It's a really interesting article by made of the Daily News.
So I don't know what else to say, George, this
is a tough spot. I feel like they may have
to trade him. That's what you wanted. Ready, He's trying
to put them in the next spot where they have
no choice. Yeah, we're gonna come back. We'll wrap that
(07:11):
up and talk about the Houston Texans. Sports grid dot
Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our
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Com welcome back. Get on the grid and do so
(07:36):
on social media on Twitter at sports Gride, on Instagram
at sports grid TV. Eight mail as always goes to
add George Kurtz on Twitter. Niceties go to me at
Mike Blewett, So please follow and comment and uh, you know,
tell George what you think. Really give it to him,
like really tell him what's up, what you're thinking, and
(07:58):
uh he'll pass it along to me as necess serry. So, uh,
we're doing we're doing our last three team previews today.
We're going to continue to preview these teams, but we've
gone through is our third round of going through these teams,
talking through some of the issues. Some things haven't changed
for teams, others perspective has changed a little bit. And
(08:20):
if you watched our most recent episode on Saturday morning,
George and I were talking. Talking ourselves into the Detroit
Lions doesn't make that much sense, But as you start
talking about it, that makes a little bit more sense.
They had a whole bunch of guys come over, brand
new players that they've paid Matt Stafford coming back week division.
(08:41):
You know, I could talk myself into it at six
to one to win the division. It's not terrible. But
the Texans team, I don't know if we can talk
ourselves in or out of. It's an odd team. George
in with this respect, they've won a bunch of division
titles under Bill O'Brien and people still think he's terrible,
and they still think the teams thinks it doesn't They
(09:02):
have a bunch of really good players on the team. However,
they appear to have lost some ground to the Tennessee
Titans possibly and to the Colts definitely in my opinion. Uh,
They've obviously lost an explosive playmaker in DeAndre Hopkins. They're
on the verge of potentially extending DeShawn Watson, which would
be another log on the fire for Jamal Adams camp
(09:24):
if you had another player gets an extension, But that
appears to be coming close, and they have a whole
bunch of wide receivers that are sort of injury prone guys,
but big potential there. I actually do think this passing
attack could be something interesting this year. Yeah, we all
get on Bob right Milo, Brian, we all love to
(09:46):
get on him and listen, a lot of us rightfully deserved.
I mean, we're not gonna rehash to DeAndre Hopkins trade,
but that was a curious move, to say the least,
especially when the next day stuff on things goes for more.
So that's our issue there. They do manage to win,
they mean go far in the players where they do
win and get in Uh. Do I think that that
kind of team this year? No, mainly because of what
(10:06):
you said. I think Tennessee, assuming Ryan Tannehill is that
quarterback that they believe has passed them. I certainly they
can need Anapolis passed them, you know. And even though
I have worries about Philip Rivers as well. But I
think overall as a team, the Cults are good. So
I think they have problems in their division. I mean,
the first thing I think of the Texans here, we're
gonna find out about them real quick. Once again, as
you like to say on all these shows, we're going
(10:27):
to assume Week one's gonna happen in week one, you know, September,
whatever it is that's going to have September ten day ago.
We're gonna find out about the Texas real quick. They
opened at Kansas City, Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, Minnesota. It's the
hardest month of every of any team that we've previewed,
full playoff teams from last year, right, I mean, we're
gonna find out about them. If they can go two
(10:49):
and two, I'm a believer they'll be okay. But they
go one and three, oh and four, I'm not surprised.
I'm not surprised at les. I don't think there's any
way they be in Kansas City. I'm not gonna be
a woman next week, even with the extra time. You know,
then you gotta go at Pittsburgh. That's no fun. We
all know how good Pittsburgh was last year, or how
good they would have been if they just had a
quarterback last year. And then I don't think Minnesota is
(11:11):
a great team at all. We've discussed that yesterday. Right,
the Minnesota I think is an average football team. But
still they're probably just as good as you are. Yeah, yeah,
I agreed. I have a good defense and you still
as much as they've taken steps to address the offensive
line issues, I don't think either of us would consider
their offensive line completely fixed. Right. They have Laramie's unsol.
(11:34):
They gave him a huge deal. Uh. They have Nick
Martin there at center. Titus Howard was the first round
pick from last year, didn't play the full season. Some
questions whether or not he made a good He can
make a good transition to the NFL. But he's the
right tackle now. So the bottom line is they addressed
what was the most significant hole on the team over
the last two seasons. But plenty of talent on defense still.
(11:57):
J J. Watt there, even though a year older. A
lot of injuries have piled on Whitney Merciless. We have um.
As far as their draft picks were concerned, they had
very little, George. They traded a lot of draft picks away. Uh.
They have some that they will return next year, in
part due to the DeAndre Hopkins trade. But they really
(12:19):
came away from the draft. They got Ross Blacklock as
a defensive tackle in the second round. They had I
think they picked the least amount of players in the
entire NFL draft. There's only four or five additions to
the team via the draft. They didn't make big splashes
in free agency. You mentioned DeAndre Hopkins thing. I don't
know why I'm getting the vibe, and I've continue to
(12:43):
think this all off season that this is the year
that they're just going to unleash Deshaun Watson in a
way that they haven't before. It's not to say he
isn't super talented. We've all seen it. If you're a
fantasy player out there, he's a top five QB this
year in most drafts. It's just how he's being approached right,
super talented player. I just wonder if because they are
(13:08):
a year older on defense, you know, their defensive backfield
is that great, even though they have some talent up
and down the depth chart. I wonder if they're going
to give up more points this year. It's going to
put them in a position where they're not going to
run ball controlled offense with David Johnson and he's got
to try to light it up. It's why I like
Will Fuller in fantasy leagues. I think Brandon Cooks is
(13:30):
interesting too, when when you look at those receivers, Mike Fuller, Cooks, Cobs, Stills.
I mean talented, all right, it's a talented group. What
most NFL teams wouldn't mind having one or two of
these guys that's part of your receiving group. Their dumb
chart is really deep. But you're gonna say the but
the big butt, The big butt is as you already stated.
I mean you can play it over under. How many
(13:51):
games he's one of these guys going to play? They
all have injury histories. Yes, they're good when they're they're
but will they all beat how how many games all
four of them play together? That's another question you could
ask that that'll be I think you're right about the
show and Watson. First of all, I think for no Orther,
for Houston to be successful this season, Watson is going
to have to have his best season ever. He's got
to do some things that maybe he hasn't hasn't had
(14:13):
to do before. We saw some magic from him last year.
That offensive line, I thought it was average at best.
He had he was under pressure constantly, he was dancing around,
he was making plays all over the place. But he
doesn't have that Hopkins guy anymore. Yeah, nineties, one of
these other guys to truly step up, and I don't
know who that guy is going to be. Coax is
really more of a deep threat. Cobb just slot guy.
(14:34):
Stills isn't really another deep threat. Can Fuller be that guy? Maybe,
but I don't think he can, certainly not consistently there.
Nobody has that skill set right. DeAndre Hopkins, even if
he lacks some explosiveness that some of the other high
end wide receivers have, his ability to cash the ball
(14:54):
in traffic be a reliable possession receiver is sort of
unmatched some of the other guy us. Yeah, because how
could is not a burner. He reminds me of Michael Irvin.
Though he'll contest every bull he'll go, he'll win most
of those battles. You can trust him to go get it.
And I think that's something they're going to miss there. Now.
I know you and I different David Johnson a little bit.
I think Johnson is gonna be solid there. I think
(15:16):
you'll do some damage, but he's not. I have amount.
I have him on a fantasy team, so I need
him to do something. I think the offense could score
a whole bunch of points. I do think you're right.
I think this has to be, no doubt, no exceptions,
Deshaun Watson vertical passing game. That's how we're going to win.
Whatever factor David Johnson plays in that, so be it.
(15:40):
And it could be a whole bunch of touchdowns just
by way of getting the ball up and down the field.
But if Bill O'Brien doesn't gear everything towards this guy
throwing the ball more than he's ever thrown it before,
I think you're totally wasting all of this talent and
and and a surprisingly deep wide receiver room, which they'll
need because at least one of these guys will get hurt. Agreed,
(16:01):
And I think they better hope that J. J. Watt
is j J. Watt. They need him to be that
player where he was a game record fence. I don't
I don't think he could ever be that guy again,
but they needed to be that. We're pretty good you'll
they'll take that. But they need him to be that
game record again. They truly do. And I don't know
if that's coming. I just don't know if that comes.
(16:22):
So they gets a problem for them as well, where
their defense is solid but not great, right, I mean,
I think that's the issue there. I agree with you
about the offense. I think the Houston can't do what
Seattle does, but they sort of rope in Russell Wilson.
They need to let Watson go and be two Shawn
Watson and do what he has to do to win
football games. Yeah, it's it's become a team. And Bill
(16:43):
O'Brien's criticism as the GM of this team, I think, unfortunately,
it seems like he's just kind of chasing his tail
to catch up on the previous transactions that have been
made or not made properly. So you effectively didn't really
do much to this team, team that barely scraped by
the Bills last year in a home game. A bunch
(17:06):
of luck happened in that game. Whatever you got the
W and then despite having a huge lead against the Chiefs,
you had virtually no chance to win that game, which
seems impossible to say, but even when they were winning
by three touchdowns, you're like, that's probably just a matter
of time, and it happened. The Chiefs annihilated them from
that point on. So we'll talk about their divisional compadres next.
(17:28):
The Indianapolis Colts right here on the grid and f
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at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
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(18:07):
Back on the grid, Mike and George talking to you
about the Indianapolis Colts were welcoming in our radio audience
for this segment. Thank you for joining us. But we
to wrap up the Texans. George, one thing I for
I failed to do bad radio hosting was rip off
their odds. I mean, we are a gambling uh sports
wagering network, so I probably should have done that on
(18:30):
the Texans. I'll just do it quickly now. To win
the AMC South there three to one plus three hundred
behind the Titans and Colts. To win the NC Championship,
that is plus twenty four hundred. Uh. To win the
Super Bowl plus forty six hundred. That's long odds. Uh
they win. Total is seven and a half under minus
one twenty, so people are shading the under on that.
(18:51):
And to make the playoffs plus one forty four and
no minus. I think if you're I think, if you're
bullish on the Titans and you want it back DeShawn Watson,
that's not a terrible team to bet on right to
be the seventh seed in the playoffs. You could do
a double dip too, because if they're going to make
the playoffs, are gonna have to be over seven and
(19:11):
a half. That that's probably more the bet to make. Right.
They could miss the playoffs and still be over seven
and a half. You're probably and positive money. You're probably
on the right track there, But once again, you do
the math here. The Coats coming to play in this
as well. Who're gonna talk about next? We'd like to
give a division to Kansas City, Baltimore, and let's just
say Buffalo for giggles here. I understand Indianapolis wins the South,
(19:34):
so thin it's three playoff teams. New England's going to
be there, Pittsburgh is going to be there, Tennessee is
going to be there. I think Cleveland's going to be
in the mix here. Where does Houston fit in here?
They've gotta beat out three of these teams. Then I
don't know, we talked about their schedule their first four games.
I think they go one in three. I dosion last
(19:55):
year they did and they and they always managed. They
always played well against a division of poets, specifically Tennessee. Right,
some things go well there. But I don't know. I don't.
I just don't think this is going to be their year.
But I think that over on the seven hit is
right about on the line. I think they need to
go win seven or gonna win eight. Yeah, it's close.
(20:16):
I should I want to. I want to say, if
you're interested in the Texans, I think you go with
the over seven and a half to make the playoffs.
You get a little you know, a little bit of
juice there. You get a little juice on your side. Plus.
But I don't know. I'm with George. I don't think
it's there. But you as you talk through these, you
(20:37):
do correlation and try to say, well, what could happen
to Shaun Watson could take over and push them to
an extra couple of wins that they might not have otherwise.
Hat but in any event, uh colts. So we've talked
about it here for a couple of months at least.
The culture my favorite bet on the board for the
over U there have a total of eight and a half.
(21:00):
They that's over the over his minus one sixties. So
you're actually paying a lot of juice on it now.
But it's because the schedule lines up so well for them.
I do think they're going to win the division. All
of this falls apart if Brian Rikowski are Producer's favorite quarterback.
Phil Rivers does not play up to the standards of
Brian Rikowski has set so um that's really the big question.
(21:22):
We talked about three big questions, Phil Rivers, Yeah or nay.
I mean, it's funny during the break you're more of
a yea because oh, he's in a better situation. Brian
was more of a name because he thinks his arm
is going to fall off at any moment. Uh. I
mean when he has that shot put motion that he'd
like to throw the football, and it's always been strange.
(21:44):
It's always strange, I mean right and looking at it, it
it looks painful. It looks like he's the ball weighs
like pounds when he has to throw it each time.
It's just weird. Now to your point, he's playing indoors
for eight games, so there's nothing to worry about. The weather,
the eating atmosphere. It's offensive line is one of the
better in the league. He's not gonna feel the pressure
that he did when playing for the Los Angeles Chargers.
(22:07):
How about this, though, George, he also plays in at
Detroit and at Houston. That's ten. Jacksonville in January not
not terrible. It can be cold. It can be cold there,
but not terrible. I'm just saying we're building a case.
He's got a Vegas, Vegas in December at one at
(22:28):
four o'clock in the afternoon, at one o'clock in the afternoon,
it should be that cold. Isn't a dome there? They
at the Star Vegas is a dome. No, I don't
believe so, oh god, I will never want to play
in Vegas and September. Maybe I'm wrong. I saw it.
You were there too. It didn't look like a dome
to me. It's a dome. It is a dome, all right,
Brian said, don't. I'm sorry I messed up. I'm pretty
(22:52):
sure it is. It has to be, you know, you
gotta melt. But anyway, now you brought up during the
break and I kind of a I'm with you here
that I think he was trying to do too much
last year, trying to be the Philip Rivers well of
his youth and throwing the world down the field. Here,
he doesn't. He won't need to do that in Napolis.
Is a good overall team, right, I mean, I'm not
(23:12):
gonna say they have the defense of the Buffalo Bills
or the Ravens. No, but it's a good solid defense,
good solid offensive line. They have eighteen running backs, a
good staple of a wide receiver to throw too. This
is a good overall team. Rivers shouldn't feel the need
to have to be He doesn't have to do what
the show on Watson is gonna have to do. He
almost have to be a game manager. Just don't screw
it up and they'll win win games here. I like
the Colts a bunch this year. But that being said,
(23:35):
I like them really oil across the board, except they're
not gonna be Baltimore and they're not gonna be the Chiefs. Okay,
so yeah, it's obvious. It's obvious that the favorites from
the a f C are Kansas City and Baltimore for
a variety of reasons. Not the least of which are
their superstar quarterbacks. But if you're trying to build a
(23:56):
case for somebody else in the a f C to win, it, say,
I don't know, Chiefs have a bad game, Pat Mahomes
gets bumped off and they're out, or maybe you have
to bump Pat Mahomes off in Kansas City in January.
Would you rather bet on the Colts to go to
the super Bowl or this Dealers to go to the
(24:18):
super Bowl because they have identical odds of Plus, there
are the two a f C teams that we I
think can craft a narrative around them making it even
though we admit on the surface Baltimore and Kansas City
might be a little bit better. Yeah, I think the
problem for any team and you're you're sort of hitting
at this when you actually weren't hitting. You pretty much
said it. If Kansas City plays their best game, they win.
(24:40):
So you need the Homes and them to be off somehow,
just what the Saints have been off. Saints, we're the
best team. We thought twice Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh doesn't get enough
credit from last year because all we think goes many
Way eight and Nate and they were ugly on offense. Well,
that's unlucky to happen. This year they have been back.
We think of the uh. I don't know if it'll
(25:01):
be old Roethlisberg, but do we think he'll be able
to throw the football? Lord does nowhere on the behind
Seneca throw the football last year, So they'll have that back,
they'll have an offense. I actually worry more about the
defense taking a step back on Pittsburgh. I just wonder
if they won't have that same mentality he goes Ben's
back that sort of thing. So I think Pittsburg would
have a shot absolutely if they're up the bar. I
think Buffalo would have a shot, only he goes that
(25:23):
defense can be the lights out and really control the
game here at least not lit up forty to Kansas City.
But then keep me into the twenties, and if Josh
Allen can have a game that day and not do
silly things, they could be a threat. How about New England,
You know, I think they're a little uh. We don't
know what Kim was going to bring, but if he's
having a game that day and going Banania, running the
(25:44):
up and down the field because he can, again, they
could be a threat. They're actually the next the third
shortest odds of the a f C. I might have
skipped over there, but there plus seventeen hundred. Then Cold
Steelers are plus hundred. You mentioned the Bills at plus
thirty two hundred. This is all to win the Super Bowl.
If I if I switched it over to the conference winners,
it's Chiefs, Ravens, Pats, Colts, Steelers, Bills all in a row.
(26:06):
Those are the top six teams. Yeah, I said. The
thing is, the key is here is each one of
these teams needs things to go their way. Like I said,
Colts play their best game. Chiefs play their best game.
Chiefs win by twenty one. It's just scary when you
think about it. So they need the other Chiefs not
to play their best games, but my homes to be
off that day. Maybe on the defense is to be
a complete sive, which is possible. I said, all these
(26:28):
other teams that we talked about, Steelers, Cults, Bills. I
don't know if the Pats here, but the other three
teams they're all better overall teams in the Chiefs. And
what I mean by that is they all have a
good defense, good special teams, good offense, just that no
one has Pat Homes and what the offense can do
where that team is geared to score four to score forty,
we're gonna score thirty five points, score more than us
(26:50):
to beat us. That's the team wants to do, and
that's why it's tough for these other teams to do it.
Buffalo I think would have to maybe the best shot
because I think that defense can keep them the twenty four.
You know, I said, if Josh Allen can have a day,
that day be running, uses athleticism. I think you'll probably
need that from a quarterback. Athleticism. I know, Lamar Jackson.
We're not talking about the Baltimore Raiders. You already know
they're a good team. We're talking about other teams here.
(27:11):
The bad news for the league is that the not
Pat Mahomes played terrible for him in the Super Bowl
for three quarters, and they want against the great defense,
right right, They won by eleven points. That that's probably
terrible for three quarters. They won by eleven points and
the defense a great I said, he that's that's that's
(27:33):
the problem there. These other teams are talking about whether
it be Josh Allen, Ben Roethlisberger Uh, Philip Rivers can't
play like that. If they play like that, you're done.
Your quarterback probably needs to have a dan. I don't know.
I'm going to say the best game of his career.
That's probably crazy, but a damn good game to beat
my homes. Yeah. So, as far as the Colts odds
are concerned to win the Nancy South, they are favored,
but they're still at plus one thirty five. I think
(27:54):
it is my favorite bet for them, despite me saying
it's the easiest over on the board. You are paying
minus one sixty, which I think is the most heavily
juiced bet on the entire board right now. On fandal,
I could be wrong if I was looking at a
Jacksonville or a Cincinnati total Cincinnati, No, Jacksonville close. Uh No,
(28:20):
that is the worst. Actually, the Jacksonville under his minus
one seventy five. That's under five. So I think that's
the most heavily juice bet. But the Colts are close
there with the over. It's because the schedule just lines
up well. They're at Jacksonville to start Minnesota, the Jets, Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati,
bye week, Detroit, then Baltimore, Tennessee, Green Bay, Tennessee. That's
(28:41):
the tougher part of their schedule. Close out Houston, Vegas, Houston, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville.
There's a lot of ws on there. It doesn't mean
I think they're going fourteen and two. But if the
Colts went eleven and five, twelve and four, it would
not surprise me. I think it's an easy over for
that reason. Um, if you're getting frisky and you think
you know what they are going to challenge, I think
(29:03):
you you take a look at to win the MC Championship.
You don't know who they're gonna play in the super Bowl,
but hell, if you're gonna go all go all in,
go all in. But I think right now, to win
the South at plus one thirty five, i'd take that. Oh,
I agree with you completely. I think things have to
go really wrong for this team not to win nine games.
Apart that that's the issue, that's and that's a where
(29:25):
I think that's why we have an eight and a
half over under. It was the Philip Rivers, you know,
but I think they go he's gonna be move a
game manager this year. They're gonna reel him into him
not to make the mistakes. I think over All, this
team is really good and I think they're gonna get
to an incredible start Mike, where they can get on
that role that that true football team to do. They
played nobody really in the first six weeks. That's really
a truth. But they might lose one or two, but
(29:45):
they're going five and two the first second. Keep in
mind they added to Horace Buckner on defensive sacrifice their
first round pick for that. I'm telling you if the
if the over was nine and a half for the Colts,
I would definitely take the over. I feel that confident
and it will come back. We're gonna talk about the
of them are Ravens, who we hinted at throughout this
first hour were next on FFC. Right here on the
Grid Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at
(30:09):
your fingertips as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds, predicted betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com Back on the grid talking about
(30:31):
the Baltimore Ravens, our final team preview for now at
least uh and we're gonna spend a little bit of
time on this, because just as we were reviewing this
before we came on, Georgie said, as we were going
through the numbers, you and I both said, wow, eleven
and a half wind total. Let's take a look at
that schedule. Now, this team, uh boast the reigning m
(30:54):
v P. They obviously had a devastating loss in the
playoffs to the Tennessee Titans, but they ripped off fourteen
wins and even beat the Steelers or Robert Griffin in
weeks seventeen when they didn't have anything to play for
and the Steelers had everything to play for, so cherry
on top. They bumped the Steelers out of the playoffs
to boot. But the eleven and a half win total
(31:16):
always makes you pause to say, I don't really always
feel comfortable for predicting that teams are going to um
win twelve or more games or lose or lose twelve
or more games. Right, So when you're trying to get
into the totals to say a team is gonna win
four or less games or win twelve or more, that
starts to get to a point where like even great,
(31:38):
historically great football teams go twelve and four and just
rip off a bunch of wins in the playoffs, and
people are like, hey, remember that, Like the two thousand Ravens.
I don't know what their record was, uh, but I'd
imagine there are teams throughout history that went twelve and
four kicked everybody's tail in the playoffs, and we considered
them great. My point in saying all of this in
(32:01):
a circular manner is to say, it doesn't mean you
have to win four teen games to be a great team, George. No,
of course, the towelve and four us to be a
great season back in the day, twelve and four one
year of the division, eleven and five the first wild card.
Tennant Tate's got you the second wild card. She's like,
what always happened in every year here? I just think
that eleven and a half a You look at their schedule.
(32:23):
Their division is not not easy, all right. I know
they got Cincinnati, but Cleveland beat him once last year,
could easily do it again this year. Pittsburgh and Ball
to one of the better rivalries in the sport. That's
not a shocking with the split, I can see two
losses right there. They do play Kansas City a Monday night.
It is the Steelers had them beat two early in
the season. Juju fumbled in overtime, You did, uh? They
(32:44):
do play Kansas City, they play Philadelphia, they played Indianapolis,
New England, Tennessee, Dallas. I can easily see five losses here,
you know, and then they'll still be a damn good team.
But their schedule is tougher. One thing I don't like
to see is man their last three games of this season,
you know, if you need them to get that one
more loss. You know, they last three game to Jacksonville
(33:04):
Giants Cincinnati. Boy, that would be rough to if I'm
praying for one more loss to get my get my
under there. They caught a huge break. They caught a
huge break with the back half, with the back part
of the schedule here because even though they have Dallas,
it's a Thursday night game in their building. So they
get Dallas on a short week and they don't have
(33:24):
to what, No, they don't why what's the week before?
Oh they got to Thursday nighters and oh they're playing
on Thanksgiving? Correct that they always do that for a Dallas.
They give thursdays in a row. I don't know what theory,
what the purpose of that is. But Dallas always plays
back to back Thursdays. You're right, You're right. Uh so
the Ravens get the same deal here, so they both
(33:48):
play Thanksgiving, then they play each other the next week,
so it's not a short week. I guess throw that
out the window. But nonetheless, at least it is a
home game against Dallas, as you at at Cleveland, and
then the Jacksonville, New York Giants in Cincinnati close pretty good,
not not a not a difficult schedule down this stretch there,
(34:09):
And you're right, I think that would actually give me
pause and betting the under. But anytime a team goes
fourteen and two your unless they're the Patriots, you're expecting
some sort of regression. And even the Patriots weren't ripping
off fourteen win seasons every year. By the way, the
two thousand Ravens, I looked it up while you were talking,
twelve and four, twelve and four. Then they murdered everybody
(34:30):
in the playoffs, and they're an all time great team,
notably the defense. But nonetheless, um so, you're right. There
are a bunch of games in here, Chiefs, Philly, Indie, Dallas.
I mean, there are teams they're not gonna sweep the
Steelers again. Hopefully not. They're not gonna sweep the Steelers again.
It's unlikely. But that's a lot of games where are like,
(34:52):
I don't know, fifty fifty games. I think most of
these games, i'd probably give the edge to Baltimore. I
wouldn't call it more probably sixty forty. I given that edge.
They're they're they're a better team, but they're not gonna
win a wall. They're just not going to can I
get I do think they'll split with Pittsburgh. I think
they might split with Cleveland. Go four and two in
the division. That's two losses? Can I get three more?
(35:12):
Can they beat Kansas City on that Monday night? It
will be a game, you know, Can they beat Indianapolist
in Indianapolis? I know this year is weird. No fans,
probably no fans or minimum fans or cardboard cutouts, virtual fans,
whatever the hell they're gonna do these games. But it'll
be a different, different sort of feeling this year. I listen,
I love both. I keep saying that the number with
(35:32):
two team for me behind Kansas City. But I could
see them going eleven and five here That wouldn't shock me.
Here to quote, the schedule is rough. I mean that
they got one little section here Philadelphia at Philadelphia home
versus Pittsburgh, at Indianapolis, at New England, versus Tennessee at
Pittsburgh home versus Dallas. That's a lot of tough games
(35:54):
games in a wrong They're not They're not gonna win
all seven. They might go, hell, four and three would
be good. May they go five and two and that
if filance, it might be good enough to get you
your five losses overall. Yeah, you're right, You're right, that
is a tough stretch. They got the bye week at
a pretty good time actually for them. But it doesn't
mean that there's not some tough games in there. How
about concerns like as our producer Brian said unanimous m
(36:20):
v P last year, Lamar Jackson, Um, how about concerns
about the league catching up to him. He's obviously a
unique player. He's not the exact same skill set as
Pat Mahomes. I would I would submit that as tough
as it is to catch up to Lamar Jackson for
the defenses, I think Pat Mahomes is even tougher because
(36:41):
he's doing it almost exclusively with his arm right and
the way passing offenses are built, in the way the
NFL is built now, when a guy is just such
a superior pastor like that, it's going to be tough
for teams to ever be able to cover him for
a full game week after week after week. Lamar, I
don't know. Maybe they find a way to quell the
(37:03):
rushing abilities some You know, speed is always a great
equalizer in all sports. Man, when you know, you know,
when when you're even, you're leaving. There's the old thing.
And with Lamar, he's definitely leaving if he's even my
My worry with him is always going to be one hit.
You know, when is that one hit coming that either
hurt it, does hurt it right then, or slows him down.
(37:24):
He's not the same player anymore. You know, there's that season,
couple of weeks, a month, whatever it might be, it's
coming eventually. He was saying, with all these types of
running back, these types of quarterbacks, he's a slight guy.
He's not a big guy. He's not built like Cam Newton,
you know, that kind of body where he can take kids.
Maybe in with can we as we've seen it took years,
but eventually those hits took its toll. So that's always
gonna be my worry with Lamar. I mean, when you
(37:45):
look at the roster, your wide receivers and Marquis Brown, Steve,
that scares nobody. I understand Mark Andrews might be the
best tight end outside of Kelsey, uh, you know, Kittle,
maybe R's you know, but they're there. We see him
to don't scare you. So yeah, if I'm a defense,
I mean, what do you do? But the fantist guy
you have as a spy can't be a linebacker. He'll
(38:07):
run right by that guy. He was a quarterback, a safety,
a wide receiver. I don't know. Someone. I think someone's
gonna have to come up with something different to stop
this guy. He's so fast. Yeah, it's literally he's like
he's just and he cuts on a dime. He goes left,
stop going right. You know, that's the issue there. I
think the team I don't think there's a way to
stop him. Yet consistently we have seen him in the
(38:28):
playoffs not play well, right back to back playoffs. Now
he's sort of laid egg, but the regul season seen
the ball to him all that much. I don't think
the defensive system has been I don't want to stay
invented or creative. I think no one's thought of the
right way to stop him consistently yet. Yeah, so as
far as their rushing attack is concerned, mark Ingram is
still there. Everybody likes to forget about him. But they
(38:49):
did draft J. K. Dobbins, who could be either a
placement or a compliment. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill backing
him up extremely deep, deep at the running back position,
plus Lamar. Obviously, the rushing attack was tops in the
league last year, as evidenced by them winning all these games,
and they were able to run on teams and really
(39:09):
rack up a lot of yards. You did mention the
receiving options. Markis Brown was hurt last year, but he's slight.
He's a very explosive, but he's slight, smaller receiver, sort
of the Tyreek Hill mold, although would never compare anybody
that speed, but Myles Boykin there can he take a
step forward. They drafted Devin Duverney. I think you're right
(39:30):
on the Andrews piece. He's right there kind of knocking
on the door. By the way. We we've talked about
him in the past two He's the type one diabetics,
so he is planning on playing despite being in a
high risk category for covid um. Defensively, they had the
dalliance with Michael Brocker's He's back in l A. They
drafted Patrick Queen. I think they got a break there,
(39:52):
he felt to them. They also drafted Malik Harrison in
the third round, justin Matt if we be a peak
way in the third round, so they have some interesting
long term pieces there. As far as their defense is concerned,
I think their defensive line took a hit um, but
at linebacker Matt Juden's still there, Marlin Marlon Humphrey at corner,
(40:14):
and Earl Thomas still there, along with Marcus Peters as well.
I think they have very talented, at least very talented
front line of the defense. So there aren't a lot
of holes on this team. We're just looking for them
to get over the hump in the playoffs, right, I
think it's exactly it, and I think that is more
on Lamar Jackson than anything else. Back to back playoffs
(40:35):
now he has not played that well. I know his
his stats at the end of the game look great.
Of the the loss last year that eliminated them. But
when the game mattered, he didn't play. Well, yeah, that's
really what will matters. They were they were empty stats. Uh.
I would say, Dak Prescott stats in losses, they just
didn't mean anything at the end of the game. The
game was dare you throw your own guy under the bus?
(40:56):
That's what I disliked about. Prescott stayed over and over again.
A lot of those stats are empty. That's you know,
when played good teams, he woul didn't show up a
little didn't matter anymore. So back to the Ravens though,
I think the other defense is I would say very good,
but not great. There's not a two thousand Ravens, but
it's more than acceptable. I mean the secondary is good. Uh,
the secondary mate might take chances. Marcus Peters is a
(41:16):
guest guy and he's trying to read the past coming.
If you got you do a double move, you might
have something there on Marcus Peters, Earl Thomas getting up there.
A little little long in the tooth, but still a
very good. Same thing. I agree with you about the
defensive line. I think it did take some hits. We'll
see how that works out. The linebackers are getting Patrick
Queen will see how he comes out here. Overall, what
(41:37):
you said, it's perfect. There's no obvious weakness here. Yeah,
they did add Calais Campbell to the defensive line. By
the way, I'm not disrespecting him. It's just they had
other pieces that they had counted on, and they signed
Derek Wolfe as like a playing c after they had
traded one of their defensive line to the Steelers and
Michael Brockers went back to l A. So it's not
the it's not the defensive line they had craft or
(41:58):
they wanted. So sorry, I need the Ravens, look said,
I think they're they're still behind the Chiefs, and I
think they'll always be behind the Chiefs until Lamar Jackson
proves he's ready to play to that level. He has
to because once again, the Ravens, Uh, the defense is
not the Buffalo Bills. I think the Bills could be
maybe the best defense in the league. The Ravens maybe
top five, but they're gonna give a point to the Chiefs. Yeah,
(42:21):
I think so. Lamar Jackson has to be able to
uh overcome that to win the NFC North. At minus
two d I don't love it. I think my favorite
bet for them is probably to win the NC Championship
at plus three forty. They don't have to win the
Super Bowl. I just need them to play better and
beat the Chiefs, which I think is possible. I think
those teams can be hang over. She just could have
(42:43):
a hangover. We don't know. And I said the Ravens.
Maybe maybe this coincidence that Lamar Jackson didn't play well
against the Charges two years ago and the Titans last year.
Maybe he'll play you know, hey, just that big games
this year, is gonna have a good game and you
could very well beat the Chiefs. We have seen the
Chiefs not play their best in the playoffs either, right,
not always? Now, you mentioned they were behind to Houston
(43:03):
before that. You know, it's it's funny how you mentioned that.
You absolutely right. We all knew it was coming back
in this game, so no matter of what they were
gonna win by. They didn't play all that great in
the well either, so it's more possible Lamar m v
p s plus seven hundred for him to run it back.
So seven and one. I wanted to make one point.
I should have made this earlier, but in a season
like this where we're obviously we might not have any
(43:25):
preseason games, and we might be in a situation where
you don't have all these undrafted free agents making the team.
It's effectively the same team that hasn't seen each other
that much. Four weeks, five weeks, let's go, let's get
it started. I think coaches like John Harbaugh that wins
basically all of his preseason games and is extremely well coached,
I think are going to have advantages. I think this
(43:48):
is a year to be pretty chalky with the teams
that were good last year, didn't lose a ton of
pieces and can run it back with the good coaching system.
So I don't I do think that teams like ball
to More in New England, which are well prepared regardless
of the scenario, are at an advantage. I really do
think that about the Ravens, it's just a twelve is
(44:10):
a lot. I doubt. I have questions about them going over,
but if you pressed me, I would say they probably
hit twelve. I'm going on, all right, come back to
wrap up this hour of FFC. Right after this on
the Grid sports grid dot Com, Betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
(44:31):
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid. Sports grid dot Com Back on the Grid.
Closing out this edition of Football Full Circle, Georgia, I
wanted to go back to my point about the Ravens
(44:53):
and these well prepared teams and what I think, Look,
it may very well translate to the Ravens are o
her on the year because they're well prepared for John Harbaugh.
Where I really think that you're going to find value
as a better this year, as hard as the NFL
season is, is your ability to utilize that knowledge on
(45:15):
teams early doesn't mean like, well, they're gonna be a
well prepared team, so they're gonna rip off twelve thirteen wins.
Where I think it really comes into play is what
you saw them due to Miami last year. It was like,
my favorite bet of the entire NFL season was Baltimore
Miami Week one. Miami just traded half the team. John
Harbaugh never loses a preseason game, and they were playing
(45:37):
each other in Week one. I didn't care that it
was hot in Miami, it was like, this team is unprepared.
This team is prepared. They beat him by six touchdowns.
So I think you can look at teams like New England,
like Baltimore. Obviously we'll have to take the spreads into
account and just bank on those well prepared teams to
be good early in the season, even if it doesn't
(45:57):
work out long term. Does that make sense? Oh, you know,
you know I agree with you in this. I think
there are gonna be some very weird games this season,
especially early in the season, because no mini camps, you know,
no practices. We're praying or hoping everything started stun but
even that is not going to be normal. There's gonna
be what ten panted practices, that's it. No preseason games.
(46:20):
I think football is gonna be awful. Even if they
play in September, it's gonna be awful football. They're gonna
some games that it's just like this team has no
idea what they're doing. They're not ready, they're not they
can't tackle anybody, they can't do this, you know, they
can't complete a handoff, stuff like that. I think it's
gonna be pretty bad football for the first month of September.
So yes, I think any team that had the same
coaching staff, same players, pretty much, you know, the same
(46:41):
amount of snaps returning from last season, it's going to
be at a significant advantage, especially early going this season.
And you might be watching us and saying, well, what
are you saying that the chalk what What's what's interesting
about that? I'm saying, don't be scared of it early
in the year. I think that these teams that are
well prepared could be get you some easy wins early. Baltimore, Pittsburgh,
(47:04):
New England on the NFC. I like the way Shanahan
coaches Sean Payton throw another one out there. There's a
couple of other guys. You know, the Chiefs are just
so damn scounton. They're just gonna beat everybody anyway. But
I think you should really keep that in mind early
in the season. The Ravens beat the Dolphin Toy six
touchdowns last year, and in Week one they weren't even
(47:25):
favored by a touchdown. I just think you need to
look at that early, particularly this season. Don't be afraid
of the favorites early as you might be in a
normal season. Well that's it for this hour on behalf
of George Kurtz and producer Brian Rokowsky on Mike Lewett,
thanks for watching FFC Right here on the Grid Sports
grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
(47:47):
seven as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
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