Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the hidden world of wealth, where secrets of
the affluent become accessible to you. You are listening to
Your Money Matters, the most provocative financial radio show on
the airwaves. You are about to start your educational journey
here on Your Money Matters with your host Drew Prescott,
(00:22):
President of Prescott Private Wealth and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor.
Drew will unlock the complexities of the financial landscape with straightforward,
powerful insights. Whether you're planning for retirement, managing in a state,
or looking to grow your wealth. Consider this your exclusive invitation.
Turn up the volume, lean in closer. Let's navigate the
(00:45):
hidden paths of prosperity together. Your financial enlightenment begins now.
Securities all produce a terror Financial Specialists LLC Member FEN
the SIPC reservices offered through Setara Investment Advisors LLC so
Terra firms are under separate ownership from any other named entity.
(01:06):
Four five to one WHO Sixth Street, Troy, New York
one two one eight zero.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Jail absolute a jail absolutely shack in what good boh?
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Welcome back, everybody. You're listening to Your Money Matters and
I'm your host Drew Prescott, chartered retirement planning counselor and
accredited wealth management advisor here at Prescott Private Wealth, located
at four point fifty one Hoo'sick Street.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
In Troy, New York.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
And for all of you who listen each and every week,
thank you. I appreciate that. And uh oh wow, what
a week there. I am not short of material to
cover today. I can tell you that much. I could
have a five hour show if I wanted to today,
but we're doing one hour, and frankly, one hour is
(02:13):
a lot of time. One hour is way past my
attention span. But hey, you're better than me. You can
do an hour.
Speaker 4 (02:25):
God bless you. That's great.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
But speaking of short attention spans, I want you to
do me a favor. Would you go to wherever you
listen to your podcast and look up your Money Matters.
Apparently there's other podcasts out there name that as well,
but just look for the one that has a blue
background with white writing and a beautiful gold logo of
(02:51):
the Some would call it the Collar City Bridge, but
if you know what you're talking about, it's actually the
Green Island Bridge. So look for that one. Do me
a favor, subscribe, like follow check me out on YouTube
as well. I am going to be putting out some
shorter bits. We're gonna be doing it a little bit
(03:13):
more frequently as well. Why well, I think I can
get you some meaningful information that's timely in a quick fashion,
and if it's of interest to you, you'll be able
to listen to the full podcast on it. So that's
the way I'm going. That's the way I'm going. I've
got one more week here with you. I'll miss you,
(03:37):
and hopefully you'll miss me, but you don't need to.
You can always follow me on my podcast or YouTube
check us out.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
It is gonna be worth your while.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
And may I say, even better than what you're currently
listening to.
Speaker 4 (03:56):
That's true. I think it's gonna be better.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
So anyways, thank you again for listening. And had my
forty eighth birthday last week. Had a really nice party.
Thank you for those who made it and didn't let
the rain scare you away. So thank you. I appreciate
all of you that joined us. It was a nice time.
(04:20):
Father's Day turned out to be wonderful and I was
able to start to get my yard back to the
standard that I like it.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
In.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
Still got to.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Get some more flowers. I love I love flowers, so
if you drive by my house you'll see that.
Speaker 4 (04:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I really enjoy plant and flowers, so love to see
him bloom all different colors. So anyways, thank you again
for listening. We have a ton of material, as I said,
so let me just get right into this yere.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Now, what is the big topics? Right?
Speaker 3 (04:58):
We know what they are. We don't even have to ask.
Everyone's talking about war and what is going to happen. Well,
we've got war, We've got oil shocks, cyber breaches, sweltering
heat waves, and a critical NATO summit and honestly, it
sounds like chaos a little bit or is it an opportunity?
(05:20):
Well today I'm going to help you see it clearly.
And remember this is your money matters, and I'm your host,
Drew Prescott. So let's dive in. Now we've seen Israel
just stepping up and taking care of business in a
way that you would never expect. Now, you would have
had to be choosing to not pay attention to the
(05:46):
world stage had you had not seen this ramping up
even prior.
Speaker 4 (05:53):
To Obama.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
I remember when he said, ah, I ran just rattles
their sabers, nothing to worry about, nothing to worry about,
and was fine with the dog and pony show getting
marched around. The inspectors are getting pointed. Look to the left,
look to the left, and everything's going on to the right,
and these guys just went, you know, hand in.
Speaker 4 (06:16):
Glove with it.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
Terribly disappointing, but the day has come. They had the
ability to enrich nuclear weapons and Israel is their number
one target. They'd love to wipe Israel off the face
of the planet. So what does that mean? As this
a political show now, well a little bit, but not really.
(06:42):
But what does it mean for your finances? What does
it mean for the stock market? There's a lot of
play here because we just saw Ukraine just pretty much
cleaned up Russia on the world stage, and then China
has been financially disciplined for the whole world to see.
So these people that are called world powers, they all
(07:07):
just stood in line and got spanked on the fanny
and everybody saw it. And the world has noticed this.
And now pride is down with these countries, embarrassment is up,
and these countries want revenge. And right now the US
is sitting on the sidelines like we were in World
(07:29):
War Two, and everyone's trying to stop the big dog,
the USA, from getting into this fight. We currently don't
need to, and I thank God for that, but unfortunately
there may be a time for it. So people are
now asking what happens if we go to war?
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Will the markets go down?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Well, let me just unpack that for you here, because
when geopolitical tensions rise and America finds itself involved in
a military conflict in investors tend to ask the same question,
should I pull out of the market? And you know,
it's a natural emotional response, but historically you got to
(08:13):
hear this, it's not the most profitable move. So let's
look at this. Let's look at how markets have responded
during periods of war throughout US history, starting with initial
shocks and what happens over the long term will also
identify which sectors tend to struggle and which ones tend
(08:35):
to thrive. Now, short term panic, but long term resilience.
And that's what I want to cover here, because historically
markets react negatively in the immediate lead up to war
or conflict. Now, why is that you hear it every week?
Investors do not like uncertainty. As a matter of fact,
(08:55):
they hate it. And when news breaks of these rising
tensions think troop movements, terrorist attacks, or declaration of war,
there's usually a knee jerk sell off, volatility spikes, and
we see safe havens like golden treasuries get a rush
of attention.
Speaker 4 (09:17):
And about two weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
I started making moves in our portfolios to reflect how
to prepare for this. And what you need to know
is that once the initial fear fades and military action
becomes a known quantity, markets tend to stabilize and they
often rally. So let me point you towards a few
(09:46):
key examples here. Let's look at World War Two. Well,
the initial reaction when Germany invaded Poland in nineteen thirty nine,
the Dow dropped nearly ten percent in just a few
days because fear of a global crisis really gripped the
heart of investors. But what was the long term outcome. Well,
(10:09):
from the US entry into World War II December of
nineteen forty one to the end of the war in
nineteen forty five, the Dow Jones rose by more than
fifty percent. That's an annualized return of over seven percent.
In the midst of the most costly war in all
of history. But why the rebound? Well, defense spending surged,
(10:34):
unemployment fell, and industrial production swored, and America's wartime economy
began a roaring growth engine. Now, how about Vietnam? While
the Vietnam War era was mixed from nineteen sixty five
to nineteen seventy three, the DOO saw a relatively flat
(10:57):
performance overall, rising only about fifteen percent over the period.
Now why, Well, inflation and political instability at home wait
on the markets more than the war itself. Now, the
war was controversial as well, and it was prolonged and
leading to internal division and a lack of investor confidence.
(11:21):
Let me just stop right there, though, As a veteran,
I want to say thank you to all the men
and women that served during that war. It is very
unfortunate the way that they were treated when they came home.
These individuals did not want to go. Some did, some didn't,
(11:43):
most didn't, and I understand that. But thank you, because
you are a real jewel in our crown of a country.
Speaker 4 (11:58):
And thank you for going.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Thank you for not dodging the draft, thank you for going.
Those that lost a family member in that thank you.
I appreciate it from the very bottom of my heart
and you're always appreciated. Now, during that time, what sectors
(12:23):
were winners? Well, we saw defense stocks like McDonald McDonald,
Douglas and General Dynamics. They did very well. Aerospace arms
and certain manufacturing firms.
Speaker 4 (12:37):
Also saw gains.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
Now, what sectors were the losers during that time? Consumer
discretionary and cyclical sectors underperformed as the inflation and interest
rates began to climb. Now, let's look at.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
The Gulf War.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
I was nineteen ninety so when Iraq invaded Kuwait in
August of nineteen ninety, the SMP five hund dropped about
seventeen percent over three months. Now, once the US led
Operation Desert Storm that began in January of ninety one,
the markets quickly rebound within a few months, as a
(13:13):
matter of fact, and the SMP five hundred had regained
its losses and climbed even higher. So what's the takeaway there, Well,
the clarity of action and the relatively quick success of
the operation restored market confidence. Then we had Iraq War
from two thousand to three to twenty and eleven. Leading
(13:35):
into the Iraq War, the market had already been reeling
from the dot com bust from two thousand to two
thousand and three, and the SMP five hundred was down
from that roughly forty percent. So the turning point here
was the start of the Iraq invasion in March of
two thousand and three, marked a reversal from the beginning
(13:58):
of the war until the end of two thousand and seven.
Speaker 4 (14:01):
The S and P five.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
Hundred gained more than eighty percent, and the key sectors
there were again defense contractors, energy and commodities. They performed
well while tech was still kind of recovering from the
previous bubble burst. Now let's let's get into the Russia
(14:25):
Ukraine conflict. And yes, by the way, I am aware
that there is others, but keeping it simple here, Okay.
Though the US isn't directly involved in the Russia Ukraine conflict,
this conflict sent shockwaves throughout the global markets, especially energy
and agriculture. We saw oil prices surged, defense stocks climbed,
(14:49):
and we saw I shares US Aerospace and Defense ETF
IT rose nearly twelve percent in the first three months
of the invasion. Meanwhile, emerging market stocks and European equities
underperformed due to geographics and economic proximity to the war.
(15:13):
So let me leave you with this. What sectors historically
have outperformed during conflict. Well, that would be defense contractors
like a Lockheed Martin Raytheon, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman. And
then in the energy sector like Exon Mobiles, Chevron Aerospace
(15:35):
and Technology for the surveillance of drone, cyber war fair
military grade AI SO firms like A Pallanteer and L
three Harris Right. And then gold and precious metals.
Speaker 4 (15:50):
Historically they're viewed as.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
A hedge against fear and inflation. Gold often rises during
prolonged conflicts, and then this sectors that tend to underperform
are consumer discretionary uncertainty, inflation, and higher energy costs. They
typically reduce consumer spending on non essential goods such as
(16:13):
travel and leisure because war and terrorism fears can weigh
heavily on airlines, cruise lines, and global tourism. Additionally, financials
in the short term don't do so fantastic because markets
can tighten lending during high uncertainty and banks may become
a little bit more cautious during volatile times. So war
(16:35):
and conflict are tragic, but history shows that markets are
often resilient, and in fact, once the fog am uncertainty lifts,
the market tends to stabilize and even thrive, especially in
areas that align with increased government spending or supply constraints.
(16:55):
So for long term investors, the message is very clear.
Don't panic during geopolitical shocks. Evaluate your sector exposure, consider
reallocating to defense, energy and commodities if appropriate, and always
maintain a diversified portfolio. And as we always, stay informed,
(17:15):
stay invested, and stay intentional. Now you're listening to your
Money Matters, I'm your host, Drew Prescott, chartered retirement planning
counselor and a credited wealth management advisor here at Prescott
Private Wealth, and I'm here to help you make sense
of global events so that you can protect and grow
your wealth. And if you found today's episode valuable, be
(17:37):
sure to subscribe to your Money Matters podcast on your
favorite streaming platform. You can find it on our website
PRESCOTTPW dot com. It is right there, so as our
YouTube channel, you gotta sign up. You got to give
me a like and a subscribe please so we can
get this train.
Speaker 4 (17:56):
Move. And this is a big train.
Speaker 3 (17:58):
Too, so you think of how long how long.
Speaker 4 (18:01):
Does it take to get a train moving?
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Right, especially in this world, right, the financial world, everybody
and their brother seems to be involved in it. Those
that are licensed, those are not licensed. Everyone, you know,
it's like it's like belly buttons, right, everybody's got an
opinion on finances. So what now, Oh, you know what,
(18:24):
Let's talk about oil and the shock in the Strait of.
Speaker 4 (18:32):
Hormoz.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
This week, we've seen oil searched past seventy five dollars
a barrel. That's the highest level that we've seen since January.
And it's not just a blip on the screen. This
is a result of deep geopolitical tension between Israel and
Irian and at the center of it all the Strait
of Hormuz, which is a very narrow waterway responsible for
(18:57):
about thirty percent of the world's seaborn oil. And any
disruption here is not just a regional issue. This is
a global supply crisis. And this isn't the first time
that oil held the world's attention. So let's hop in
our financial time machine here and rewind to nineteen seventy three.
(19:20):
That's when the Yam Kapor War broke out, prompting OPEC
nations to retaliate against Western support for Israel by launching
an oil embargo. Now, the results were seismic, gas stations
ran dry, lines stretched for blocks, and inflation spiked. The
(19:44):
S and P five hundred took a massive hit. But
amidst the panic, a different story quietly unfolded, one of
incredible financial opportunity. And if your ears didn't just perk up,
let me say one more time. A different story quietly
(20:05):
unfolded here, and it was one of incredible financial opportunity.
If that doesn't get you excited, I don't know what's
going to But listen. While most of the markets suffered,
energy companies flourished. Who flourished Exxon, Shell, Chevron, and the
(20:25):
US arms of Saudi oil interests saw their share prices
sear So demand didn't drop, supply did. And when supply constricts,
prices and profits go up. Now here's the part that
(20:46):
too often goes untold. Every day investors who saw the
writing on the wall, who believed energy wasn't going anywhere,
they made life changing money. I'm going to share a
famous case of a school principle in Houston who shifted
(21:07):
a portion of his retirement into Exon stock in nineteen
seventy three. By the time he retired in the early nineties,
that investment had ballooned into millions. His kid's college tuition,
paid his retirement, secure, his grandkids set up with trust funds.
(21:33):
That's generational wealth born not during calm times, but forged
in moments of uncertainty. So fast forward to today, the
echoes of nineteen seventy three are allowed. Pay attention the
(21:54):
Israel Iran tensions that threatens the world's oil super.
Speaker 4 (21:59):
Highway once again.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
Sanctions, drone strikes, and naval skirmishes in the Gulf could
cause oil to skyrocket well beyond one hundred dollars a
barrel if the strait of horror moves is closed or
even restricted. So what's the modern play. We're not just
talking about Exon anymore. The twenty first century oil opportunity
(22:23):
lies not just in producers, but in infrastructure. So think pipelines,
Think refiners, think shipping, Think the unsung heroes who kept
the black gold flowing. Schlumberger, the world's largest oil field
services company, is already showing signs of a rally. Haliburton
(22:48):
is seeing contract expansions across the Middle East. Marathon Petroleum,
one of the top refiners in the US, is reporting
record margins. So even oil tanker companies are riding the wave.
Nordic American Tankers and Frontline Limited are gaining traction as
(23:10):
logistic challenges push freight rates even higher. And we can't
ignore the dividends either, because many of these companies are
offering high dividend yields, meaning not only are you betting
on growth, but you're getting paid to wait. And that's
a compelling combo for any long term investor. So for
(23:32):
those who prefer a broader exposure, there are some great
ETFs to consider as well, and some of these focus
on pipelines, which are less sensitive to crude prices but
still benefit from rising volume and demand. And these vehicles
offer a diversified way to ride the energy wave without
(23:53):
putting all of your eggs in one barrel, so to speak.
But here's a key reminder. Like in nineteen seventy three,
timing matters, and you don't want to chase after the
surge once these headlines are already priced in. Okay, I
(24:13):
always say listen if it's out there on barns in
a Wall Street journal. Guess what, You're too late because
everybody that works there already knows about it, and you're late.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
Now.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
We don't try to time the market, but we do
use some common sense. And you know you've lived long
enough that you should be able to take some of
this common sense and apply it, don't you think?
Speaker 4 (24:41):
But you don't want.
Speaker 3 (24:42):
To chase after these surge okay? Instead, focus on fundamentals,
look at balance sheets, dividend history, geopolitical exposure, and contract backlogs,
because the winners of tomorrow are being quietly acute simulated
right now. And history tells us something else. It tells
(25:06):
us that energy is cyclical. There are always booms and
there's always busts. But when macro conditions line up and
geopolitical tension mixes with constraints supply, it's often the energy
sector that takes the lead. And don't overlook natural gas either,
(25:28):
because with European demand surging due to reduced Russian imports,
we're seeing exporters like Chineer Energy are becoming global players
in a way that we have not seen since World
War iiO energy diplomacy so if you've ever looked back
(25:51):
at nineteen seventy three in thought, gosh, if I had
only invested in energy, then well, maybe, just maybe, this
is your second chance. As always, be thoughtful, diversify, and
don't overexpose your portfolio. But also don't ignore the signals either,
(26:15):
because history, as I always say, it doesn't repeat itself,
but it does rhyme. And for those of you who
are just joining us, you're listening to your money matters.
Speaker 4 (26:27):
I'm your host, Drew.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
Prescott, and I'm here to help you to code the news,
seize the opportunity, and build the kind of wealth that
lasts for generations. And what else do I want to cover?
Speaker 2 (26:41):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (26:42):
I got something for you. Holy moly, did you guys
see this?
Speaker 3 (26:45):
There were over sixteen billion passwords that were leaked across
multiple platforms including Apple, Google, Facebook, and dozens of lesser
known services. And this wasn't a small breach, This wasn't
a blip. This was the largest data leak in Internet history.
So let's break it down. Because when you look beyond
(27:06):
the fear, there's an opportunity hiding in plain sight. Like
I always say, if you're looking in the right place,
there's always an opportunity, So never look at the You
know what looks bad, right, You know who gets paid
the most in this world, and you know who becomes
(27:28):
the wealthiest those that can identify the opportunity to put
out a fire.
Speaker 4 (27:38):
So never look at the fire.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
Don't get distracted by the size, the heat and the
damage that's being done. Look for who's gonna put this
flame out? Okay, Now, for most people, hearing about a
breach triggers tremendous anxiety. Is my bank account safe? What
about my email? What about my photo? And these are
(28:01):
valid concerns, But smart investors ask a different question. What
industries stand to benefit from fixing the problem? And cybersecurity
is no longer a back office function or an IT
department checkbox. As a matter of fact, it's a frontline defense.
And with AI, quantum computing, and digital identity becoming the
(28:25):
backbone of modern life, cybersecurity firms are not just tech stocks.
They're now infrastructure. So let's rewind from some perspective here.
Back in the early two thousands, as the Internet expanded,
cybercrime just exploded, and firms like VeriSign, Symantec, and Checkpoint
(28:46):
Software were relatively unknown to the average investor, but to
those who spotted the trend, who understood that the web's
growth came with risk benefited enormalcy. You know, there's a
well known story of retire today.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
I guess it is all about education people.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
Hey, they did all right. But here's a well known
story about a retired teacher in Arizona who invested ten
thousand into checkpoints software back in two thousand and one.
Speaker 4 (29:19):
And she wasn't a tech expert.
Speaker 3 (29:21):
She was just tired of hearing about viruses, worms and
email scams. And that investment helped fund college for all
five of her grandchildren. And by the time that she passed,
she was able to put away.
Speaker 4 (29:35):
A chunk of money for her family.
Speaker 3 (29:38):
And that that's the kind of quiet, powerful investing that
we aim to uncover here at Prescott Private Wealth. Now
fast forward to today. The names have changed, but the
story is repeating. Companies like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Octa Zscaler,
they are the new guardians of the digital world world
(30:01):
and they protect cloud networks, They manage user identities, and
they help major enterprises defend against daily attacks, often hundreds
of thousands a day. So is that an opportunity I
think it is. Now let's talk about growth potential. According
(30:22):
to Gartner, global spending on cybersecurity will surpass two hundred
and fifteen billion dollars by twenty twenty six. That's more
than double what we spent just five years ago. Why
because companies know that a breach isn't just a technical issue,
it's a reputational and a financial disaster. So look at
(30:47):
what happened to Equifax, Target and even MGM Resorts. Stock prices,
consumer trust, and the entire business model were impacted. Cybersecurity
is becoming like insurance. You don't want to use it,
but you'd be insane not to have it. So how
do you, as a smart investor gain exposure to this trend? Well,
(31:09):
you could always go to the individual stock route, picking
one or two companies you know that are in that space.
Or if you prefer diversified approach, consider ETFs. Right, you
could look into there's several out there, so just do
your research on that.
Speaker 4 (31:27):
But also.
Speaker 3 (31:31):
Big picture, just like roads and bridges, we're infrastructure in
the twentieth century. Now, data security is the infrastructure of
the twenty first century. So it's not optional, it's not
a niche, it's core. And remember, every breach, every hack,
every password leak is not just a threat, it's a signal.
It's a signal that this industry is needed now more
(31:54):
than ever, and that means growth, that means investment, and
that means opportunity. And that's what we're here to do.
Let's spot it, let's understand it and help you take
action with wisdom and caution. And for those of you
who just joining us, you're listening to your money matters.
I'm your host, Drew Prescott, chartered retirement planning counselor and
(32:15):
a credited wealth management advisor.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
Do me a favor.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
Go to Prescott pw dot com, look for our podcast
and our YouTube channel. Please like and subscribe, and it
is going to that basket is going to get filled
up here working with our compliance team to get everything approved,
and it's going to come out fast and furious, and
(32:41):
it's going to be good information. So what do you
want to talk about next? Let's see it would be
something fun to talk about. We talked about that, you
know what, Let's do this. I always find this interesting. Yeah,
(33:03):
let's do that. This is this, this is a good thing.
So there's a lot of opportunities out here right now,
and we are seeing a heat wave, a major heat wave.
So is there an opportunity for some of these HVAC manufacturers.
Speaker 4 (33:27):
I think so.
Speaker 3 (33:28):
Also hydration, right, just like in nineteen fifties we saw
consumer staples rose alongside of utilities. Today's essentials hydration fans, sunscreen.
They're all short term plays with some real upside. So
you know, look for companies that are in the bottled.
Speaker 4 (33:51):
Water space, right.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
They all all the major companies, Pepsi, Coke Nesley, they
all have distribution of water now. And also consider some
dividend stocks. Now, all right, we saw we saw a
lot of movement here. I think there's a good opportunity
(34:14):
for some of that long term money to be in there.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
Now. We do have something major.
Speaker 3 (34:23):
Coming up here this coming week, scheduled for July twenty
fourth through the twenty fifth.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
Do you know what it is?
Speaker 3 (34:30):
Well, all eyes are on the Hague, the NATO Summit,
and it could be one of the most consequential gatherings
of military and economic minds since the Cold War. What's
on the table, Well, a significant proposal that member nations
increased defense spending to five percent of their GDP. Well,
(34:55):
i'll tell you what my clients are gonna be happy.
We've already made move not just for traditional military systems,
but to uncover cyber security, military infrastructure, and advanced defense
tech and the ongoing support for Ukraine. And if this
sounds like a lot of political posturing, think again. For
(35:18):
investors who understand the relationship between geopolitical risk and economic opportunity,
this summit could mark the beginning of a new industrial
defense cycle. So let's rewind the clock for a minute.
And by the way, if your advisor has not already
made these changes to your portfolio, call me. Okay, you
(35:44):
should not be the one coming with the idea. Call
me five one eight two zero three one nine eighty
three five one eight two zero three nineteen eighty three.
Speaker 4 (35:54):
Let's get you in.
Speaker 3 (35:55):
The office here, or have a zoom call. Let's get
you tightened up and prepare. Okay, let's batten down the
hatches here. Now I want to rewind the clock for
a little bit. Let's think about after World War Two. Now,
America's industrial might was really repurposed into defense at that time,
(36:17):
So think planes, tanks, and ships. They were no longer
just for war but they were a financial engine in
companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Raytheon. They all became
not only suppliers of military hardware, but really staples in
long term investment portfolios and defense contracts transformed once small
(36:40):
operations into national juggernauts. So if you take like a Raytheon,
for example, in nineteen forty, it was relatively obscure missile
and electronics company, but as defense demand grew, Raytheon adapted.
It's IPO created a path to wealth for early shareholders,
and those who reinvested dividends built portfolios that withstood everything
(37:05):
from recessions to inflation. Also consider Standard Oil as an example,
which pivoted during World War Two to produce aviation fuel
and lubricants, and it created specialized products for the military,
opening up global markets and reinforcing energy's critical role in
geopolitical strategies. And investors who stayed with Standard or later
(37:29):
Exxon saw decades of growth and dividend income. Now these
weren't just business successes. These were generational wealth events. Parents
passed down shares to children, grandchildren used dividends to pay
for college, retirement accounts swelled, and these stories really became
blueprints for how wartime innovation in government spending can supercharge
(37:54):
entire sectors. And now the echo here is unmistakable. Today,
the global defense landscape is shifting fast. The war in
Ukraine has reawakened Europe's attention to military readiness. The Pacific
region is on edge due to China maneuvering around Taiwan.
(38:15):
Cyber attacks from Nation State.
Speaker 4 (38:22):
How do I want to say that?
Speaker 3 (38:23):
I guess what Really, what I want to say is
that the cyber attacks here from Nation States actors are
now really their daily reality. So when NATO talks about
bumping defense budgets to five percent of GDP, it's not
just about tanks and troops. It's also about technology, and
(38:44):
it's also about satellite surveillance, missile defense, AI driven threat detection,
drone fleets, and real time communication grids. And this means
massive new investment in companies that can meet the demands.
So let's talk about some of the biggest player's poised
to benefit here. Now I've mentioned some of these companies already.
Speaker 4 (39:10):
Okay, I'm not.
Speaker 3 (39:13):
Not recommending you personally to buy these I'm just identifying
companies like a Lockheed Martin, a Northrop Groomman General Dynamics,
Raytheon Technology pallunteer L three Harris. So do some research
you don't you don't know how to, you don't like to,
(39:35):
I do.
Speaker 4 (39:36):
Call me.
Speaker 3 (39:36):
I'll do it for you. If you want, you can
pay me a one time fee to build your portfolio
for you. Or if you need ongoing support, you want
someone proactive, you can hire me and I charge a
fee off of your portfolio. If you need a financial plan,
(40:00):
I'll put together a financial plan for you for a fee.
Speaker 4 (40:03):
Okay, I really truly believe.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
I got a very very strong conviction that this is
incredible territory to make major wealth for those who are
willing to step out a little bit, take a little
bit of chance, and to be disciplined and not listen
(40:30):
to one of your friends that is telling you differently.
As a matter of fact, they had a hilarious well
it was a show at a point. But anyways, I
just came up with the headline for it for the podcast.
Speaker 4 (40:47):
And it was.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
Misdiagnosed financially by a doctor. Every time I think it
just gets me laughing. And I gave the discript sure,
which I thought was hilarious. As I'm writing at my
wife is laughing at me. But I said, remember we
were kids. We all like to dress up as doctors,
(41:10):
as cops, as firemen. And I said, well, this doctor
that gave financial advice to one of the other doctors
that he works with. I said, well, it seems like
maybe he enjoys playing pretend and makeup as a financial advisor.
(41:32):
So be careful. I've kind of been watching that story.
It's not going very well for the recipient. So but again,
they're taking a lot more risk than what they should
be and certain they're losing sleep. I'm certain they're losing
(41:55):
sleep over that deal. So you need to be tuned
into the risk that you're comfortable with. I'll tell you
what I tell every one of my clients. I want
to find out the risk that you feel comfortable with.
I want to identify quality stocks and holdings that align
(42:17):
with that risk. Okay, so I can't control ray to return,
but I can control the risk and the quality of
the investments that you hold. And that's my promise to you.
If we do a good job there, the rest should
heal itself.
Speaker 4 (42:37):
And let's see what else we talked about.
Speaker 3 (42:43):
Cybersecurity. We talked about NATO here. I think I have
some other stuff that I yeah, I know what I
was gonna do. Let's do That's that's good. So we
have something here that's important to touch base on as well.
Speaker 4 (43:02):
Let's let's talk about this.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
I'm going to use an example here for a case
that I'm working on right now, doing some financial planning.
Speaker 4 (43:15):
For a couple.
Speaker 3 (43:18):
They're very heavily invested into real estate, young couple, and
their state is you know, approximately, let's say it's about
fifty million, Okay, And what we have going on here
is the fella is always kind of looking for home runs.
(43:49):
And then on the end, he's always looking for home
runs on the real estate side. Then on the personal
investing he's incredibly conservative. And what he has experienced is
(44:10):
a byproduct of his behavior. And here's what it is.
Every time he meets somebody that has a fresh idea
and has a big opportunity, it's just a music to
(44:30):
his ears.
Speaker 4 (44:30):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
He hops into these new relationships and there's about five
different financial advisors. None of them talk to one another.
They're all just competing with one another, calling them weekly
with a new sales pitch. A new commission based product,
pre IPO stuff and just just he's got to coming
(44:57):
at him from every angle and he slows down to
give everybody an opportunity. And there is so many different
things that this man is in. Him and his wife
are invested in, and what they know very well is
real estate. And so we put together financial plan form.
(45:20):
It's not a traditional financial plan, of course, because anybody
that's in real estate, it's really not about retirement income
because if you hold the assets, well, there's your income.
Your retirement's going to look the same as it does
during your so called working years. Right, So what are
their concerns? What needs to be brought to the table here? Well,
(45:43):
tax efficiency, estate planning, proper investing. And inside of this,
there's a lot of changes that we were able to
a point to that could bring much more efficient plan
(46:07):
to him and his wife. And right now they've got
a few insurance policies kicking around again, just sold by
different individuals. Kids got insurance policies. Husband and wife have
separate different a few policies on each one putting money
(46:31):
away in this type of retirement plan for this one
company and this type of plan for their other company.
It's very sloppy. And what we're able to do was
bring everything together into a singular account for you know,
(46:54):
singular retirement account, singular individual account, and brings simplicity and
a tactical awareness that is focused on taxation. And let
me just share with you one piece, so he says
(47:15):
before the meeting, I really hope this is worth my
time and I hope it's worth my money.
Speaker 4 (47:24):
And this individual.
Speaker 3 (47:29):
Paid a few thousand dollars for this financial plan, and
just in one area, we were able to identify a
way to save the two of them future taxation, a
(47:49):
total savings of about one point two million dollars just
simply by implementing.
Speaker 4 (47:58):
Wroth conversions over the years.
Speaker 3 (48:01):
Not to mention how we are going to be able
to help plan for what could be a rather sizable
estate tax bill, because as they get older, their pile
gets bigger, As their pile gets bigger, their children's, as
(48:26):
state tax bill gets bigger, and we're helping them plan
for that. So there's a lot that we can do.
And a state tax is one of those things that
a lot of people want to brush off to the side.
And I can tell you this if you're in your forties, fifties.
Speaker 4 (48:46):
God bless you.
Speaker 3 (48:46):
If you're in your thirties and you have the potential
to grow a sizeable estate. It's absolutely beautiful, fantastic foresight
for you to slow down and sit with us and
get this under wraps today. Because nobody likes insurance. No
(49:07):
one likes to pay for insurance, okay, is a beautiful
tool butt. I don't care who you are. You're a
lunatic if you like to pay for insurance. But we
can help you put together an estimate on your state
tax bill now, forecast it out for the future, and
help you to protect these assets so that they're either
(49:31):
not accountable or that you have the proper insurance is
in place to pay that bill, to reduce what that
bill costs go from dollar for dollar down to cents
on the dollar, just simply by having the right insurance program.
Speaker 4 (49:46):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (49:48):
Additionally, what I have seen and have helped people with
is a lot of times people are sold the wrong
insurance policy when they're younger, and then when they're in
their seventies and sometimes eighties, they're replacing that policy or
(50:10):
adding to and it now will cost them tens of
thousands of dollars annually in their youth now cost them
hundreds of thousands of dollars in their late seventies and eighties.
And you can do this efficiently with foresight, and I
(50:31):
can help you with that. So again, thank you so
much for listening today. This has been I don't know
about you, but this war has just is all over
the place, right. I mean, I don't care who you are.
Even people that are not political are like, wow, we're
going to war. Yeah, because this is real, this is happening.
(50:54):
But remember what I said earlier. Those that get rich
and the wealthy are the ones that look for the
individuals and the companies that can put the fire out.
They don't stand there mesmerized by the fire and wait
for more to come. They look around and survey the
scene and see who is coming to the rescue in
(51:14):
this situation. And that's where the money is to be made.
And I want to help you get there. Okay, you're
listening to your money matters. I'm your host, Drew Prescott,
chartered retirement planning counselor and accredited wealth management advisor. And
there is a lot to be done on everyone's finances.
(51:39):
If you are working with a financial advisor, and you
feel as though what I've touched on today is a
little bit above and beyond.
Speaker 4 (51:46):
What your advisor's talking about.
Speaker 3 (51:48):
If you're a victim of mutual funds, if you are
one of the individuals that called up and said, my
friend said I should call you, and I've got one
hundred thousand dollars just for an example, I got one
hundred thousand dollars in my four oh one k and
I'm going to roll it over. If they go, oh, yeah, fantastic.
(52:10):
You know this is what we do, and you know
we're going to put you into classic American fun mutual funds. Okay,
great company. Don't get me wrong. I'm not knocking them.
I'm knocking the advisor here. If they put you into
a shares and they're just grabbing a commission off of you,
(52:37):
well they've welded themselves to that recommendation. There is no
flexibility in that. So where you start is where you're
going to end.
Speaker 4 (52:46):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (52:47):
The fees are high, the commissions are even higher, and
that is not a fiduciary standard. So I would encourage
you to call me. I am a fiduciary. I will
help you on a fee based approach and we can
be proactive in monitoring your investments and putting together financial plan.
(53:15):
We've got a wonderful year agoing here. Wonderful year. Everything
is going well. We have a lot of new clients
that have joined us, some from this show. Most are
from referrals, but always looking to have the right growth.
So if you have a portfolio that is over two
(53:38):
hundred and fifty thousand dollars, please call. If you have
portfolio that's above one hundred thousand dollars and you have
the ability to continue to put away, please call.
Speaker 4 (53:58):
I could bring you a lot of value.
Speaker 3 (54:00):
You that much I'm convinced of I've yet to meet
with somebody that I cannot improve upon their picture in
some fashion. And that doesn't always mean that I become
your financial advisor. But give us a call. You're listening
to your money matters. I'm your host, Drew Prescott, President
and chartered Retirement Planning Counselor and accredited wealth management advisor
(54:23):
here at Prescott Private Wealth, located at four point fifty
one Who's Ex Street in Troy, New York. Again, thank
you so much for listening today. Go on PRESCOTTPW dot com.
Go to podcasts and youtubes. Please like and subscribe and
there's gonna be endless incredible information out there. Okay, and
(54:45):
for those of you that are like me that have
a short attention span, I'll keep it fun. I'll give
you little blips if you want to sign up in
our email. I'm going to send them out weekly, and
if there's a timely event, we'll do that as well.
Thank you so much for lit listen. May God bless
you and God bless your family, and I hope you
have a wonderful Sunday. Until then, I'll talk to you
(55:07):
next week. And don't forget bring your tissues. Next week's
my last week. I'm looking forward to seeing you there,
all right, Thanks so much, have a great weekend.
Speaker 4 (55:19):
Take care,
Welcome to the hidden world of wealth, where secrets of
the affluent become accessible to you. You are listening to
Your Money Matters, the most provocative financial radio show on
the airwaves. You are about to start your educational journey
here on Your Money Matters with your host Drew Prescott,
(00:22):
President of Prescott Private Wealth and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor.
Drew will unlock the complexities of the financial landscape with straightforward,
powerful insights. Whether you're planning for retirement, managing in a state,
or looking to grow your wealth. Consider this your exclusive invitation.
Turn up the volume, lean in closer. Let's navigate the
(00:45):
hidden paths of prosperity together. Your financial enlightenment begins now.
Securities all produce a terror Financial Specialists LLC Member FEN
the SIPC reservices offered through Setara Investment Advisors LLC so
Terra firms are under separate ownership from any other named entity.
(01:06):
Four five to one WHO Sixth Street, Troy, New York
one two one eight zero.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Jail absolute a jail absolutely shack in what good boh?
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Welcome back, everybody. You're listening to Your Money Matters and
I'm your host Drew Prescott, chartered retirement planning counselor and
accredited wealth management advisor here at Prescott Private Wealth, located
at four point fifty one Hoo'sick Street.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
In Troy, New York.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
And for all of you who listen each and every week,
thank you. I appreciate that. And uh oh wow, what
a week there. I am not short of material to
cover today. I can tell you that much. I could
have a five hour show if I wanted to today,
but we're doing one hour, and frankly, one hour is
(02:13):
a lot of time. One hour is way past my
attention span. But hey, you're better than me. You can
do an hour.
Speaker 4 (02:25):
God bless you. That's great.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
But speaking of short attention spans, I want you to
do me a favor. Would you go to wherever you
listen to your podcast and look up your Money Matters.
Apparently there's other podcasts out there name that as well,
but just look for the one that has a blue
background with white writing and a beautiful gold logo of
(02:51):
the Some would call it the Collar City Bridge, but
if you know what you're talking about, it's actually the
Green Island Bridge. So look for that one. Do me
a favor, subscribe, like follow check me out on YouTube
as well. I am going to be putting out some
shorter bits. We're gonna be doing it a little bit
(03:13):
more frequently as well. Why well, I think I can
get you some meaningful information that's timely in a quick fashion,
and if it's of interest to you, you'll be able
to listen to the full podcast on it. So that's
the way I'm going. That's the way I'm going. I've
got one more week here with you. I'll miss you,
(03:37):
and hopefully you'll miss me, but you don't need to.
You can always follow me on my podcast or YouTube
check us out.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
It is gonna be worth your while.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
And may I say, even better than what you're currently
listening to.
Speaker 4 (03:56):
That's true. I think it's gonna be better.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
So anyways, thank you again for listening. And had my
forty eighth birthday last week. Had a really nice party.
Thank you for those who made it and didn't let
the rain scare you away. So thank you. I appreciate
all of you that joined us. It was a nice time.
(04:20):
Father's Day turned out to be wonderful and I was
able to start to get my yard back to the
standard that I like it.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
In.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
Still got to.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Get some more flowers. I love I love flowers, so
if you drive by my house you'll see that.
Speaker 4 (04:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I really enjoy plant and flowers, so love to see
him bloom all different colors. So anyways, thank you again
for listening. We have a ton of material, as I said,
so let me just get right into this yere.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Now, what is the big topics? Right?
Speaker 3 (04:58):
We know what they are. We don't even have to ask.
Everyone's talking about war and what is going to happen. Well,
we've got war, We've got oil shocks, cyber breaches, sweltering
heat waves, and a critical NATO summit and honestly, it
sounds like chaos a little bit or is it an opportunity?
(05:20):
Well today I'm going to help you see it clearly.
And remember this is your money matters, and I'm your host,
Drew Prescott. So let's dive in. Now we've seen Israel
just stepping up and taking care of business in a
way that you would never expect. Now, you would have
had to be choosing to not pay attention to the
(05:46):
world stage had you had not seen this ramping up
even prior.
Speaker 4 (05:53):
To Obama.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
I remember when he said, ah, I ran just rattles
their sabers, nothing to worry about, nothing to worry about,
and was fine with the dog and pony show getting
marched around. The inspectors are getting pointed. Look to the left,
look to the left, and everything's going on to the right,
and these guys just went, you know, hand in.
Speaker 4 (06:16):
Glove with it.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
Terribly disappointing, but the day has come. They had the
ability to enrich nuclear weapons and Israel is their number
one target. They'd love to wipe Israel off the face
of the planet. So what does that mean? As this
a political show now, well a little bit, but not really.
(06:42):
But what does it mean for your finances? What does
it mean for the stock market? There's a lot of
play here because we just saw Ukraine just pretty much
cleaned up Russia on the world stage, and then China
has been financially disciplined for the whole world to see.
So these people that are called world powers, they all
(07:07):
just stood in line and got spanked on the fanny
and everybody saw it. And the world has noticed this.
And now pride is down with these countries, embarrassment is up,
and these countries want revenge. And right now the US
is sitting on the sidelines like we were in World
(07:29):
War Two, and everyone's trying to stop the big dog,
the USA, from getting into this fight. We currently don't
need to, and I thank God for that, but unfortunately
there may be a time for it. So people are
now asking what happens if we go to war?
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Will the markets go down?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Well, let me just unpack that for you here, because
when geopolitical tensions rise and America finds itself involved in
a military conflict in investors tend to ask the same question,
should I pull out of the market? And you know,
it's a natural emotional response, but historically you got to
(08:13):
hear this, it's not the most profitable move. So let's
look at this. Let's look at how markets have responded
during periods of war throughout US history, starting with initial
shocks and what happens over the long term will also
identify which sectors tend to struggle and which ones tend
(08:35):
to thrive. Now, short term panic, but long term resilience.
And that's what I want to cover here, because historically
markets react negatively in the immediate lead up to war
or conflict. Now, why is that you hear it every week?
Investors do not like uncertainty. As a matter of fact,
(08:55):
they hate it. And when news breaks of these rising
tensions think troop movements, terrorist attacks, or declaration of war,
there's usually a knee jerk sell off, volatility spikes, and
we see safe havens like golden treasuries get a rush
of attention.
Speaker 4 (09:17):
And about two weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
I started making moves in our portfolios to reflect how
to prepare for this. And what you need to know
is that once the initial fear fades and military action
becomes a known quantity, markets tend to stabilize and they
often rally. So let me point you towards a few
(09:46):
key examples here. Let's look at World War Two. Well,
the initial reaction when Germany invaded Poland in nineteen thirty nine,
the Dow dropped nearly ten percent in just a few
days because fear of a global crisis really gripped the
heart of investors. But what was the long term outcome. Well,
(10:09):
from the US entry into World War II December of
nineteen forty one to the end of the war in
nineteen forty five, the Dow Jones rose by more than
fifty percent. That's an annualized return of over seven percent.
In the midst of the most costly war in all
of history. But why the rebound? Well, defense spending surged,
(10:34):
unemployment fell, and industrial production swored, and America's wartime economy
began a roaring growth engine. Now, how about Vietnam? While
the Vietnam War era was mixed from nineteen sixty five
to nineteen seventy three, the DOO saw a relatively flat
(10:57):
performance overall, rising only about fifteen percent over the period.
Now why, Well, inflation and political instability at home wait
on the markets more than the war itself. Now, the
war was controversial as well, and it was prolonged and
leading to internal division and a lack of investor confidence.
(11:21):
Let me just stop right there, though, As a veteran,
I want to say thank you to all the men
and women that served during that war. It is very
unfortunate the way that they were treated when they came home.
These individuals did not want to go. Some did, some didn't,
(11:43):
most didn't, and I understand that. But thank you, because
you are a real jewel in our crown of a country.
Speaker 4 (11:58):
And thank you for going.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Thank you for not dodging the draft, thank you for going.
Those that lost a family member in that thank you.
I appreciate it from the very bottom of my heart
and you're always appreciated. Now, during that time, what sectors
(12:23):
were winners? Well, we saw defense stocks like McDonald McDonald,
Douglas and General Dynamics. They did very well. Aerospace arms
and certain manufacturing firms.
Speaker 4 (12:37):
Also saw gains.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
Now, what sectors were the losers during that time? Consumer
discretionary and cyclical sectors underperformed as the inflation and interest
rates began to climb. Now, let's look at.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
The Gulf War.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
I was nineteen ninety so when Iraq invaded Kuwait in
August of nineteen ninety, the SMP five hund dropped about
seventeen percent over three months. Now, once the US led
Operation Desert Storm that began in January of ninety one,
the markets quickly rebound within a few months, as a
(13:13):
matter of fact, and the SMP five hundred had regained
its losses and climbed even higher. So what's the takeaway there, Well,
the clarity of action and the relatively quick success of
the operation restored market confidence. Then we had Iraq War
from two thousand to three to twenty and eleven. Leading
(13:35):
into the Iraq War, the market had already been reeling
from the dot com bust from two thousand to two
thousand and three, and the SMP five hundred was down
from that roughly forty percent. So the turning point here
was the start of the Iraq invasion in March of
two thousand and three, marked a reversal from the beginning
(13:58):
of the war until the end of two thousand and seven.
Speaker 4 (14:01):
The S and P five.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
Hundred gained more than eighty percent, and the key sectors
there were again defense contractors, energy and commodities. They performed
well while tech was still kind of recovering from the
previous bubble burst. Now let's let's get into the Russia
(14:25):
Ukraine conflict. And yes, by the way, I am aware
that there is others, but keeping it simple here, Okay.
Though the US isn't directly involved in the Russia Ukraine conflict,
this conflict sent shockwaves throughout the global markets, especially energy
and agriculture. We saw oil prices surged, defense stocks climbed,
(14:49):
and we saw I shares US Aerospace and Defense ETF
IT rose nearly twelve percent in the first three months
of the invasion. Meanwhile, emerging market stocks and European equities
underperformed due to geographics and economic proximity to the war.
(15:13):
So let me leave you with this. What sectors historically
have outperformed during conflict. Well, that would be defense contractors
like a Lockheed Martin Raytheon, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman. And
then in the energy sector like Exon Mobiles, Chevron Aerospace
(15:35):
and Technology for the surveillance of drone, cyber war fair
military grade AI SO firms like A Pallanteer and L
three Harris Right. And then gold and precious metals.
Speaker 4 (15:50):
Historically they're viewed as.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
A hedge against fear and inflation. Gold often rises during
prolonged conflicts, and then this sectors that tend to underperform
are consumer discretionary uncertainty, inflation, and higher energy costs. They
typically reduce consumer spending on non essential goods such as
(16:13):
travel and leisure because war and terrorism fears can weigh
heavily on airlines, cruise lines, and global tourism. Additionally, financials
in the short term don't do so fantastic because markets
can tighten lending during high uncertainty and banks may become
a little bit more cautious during volatile times. So war
(16:35):
and conflict are tragic, but history shows that markets are
often resilient, and in fact, once the fog am uncertainty lifts,
the market tends to stabilize and even thrive, especially in
areas that align with increased government spending or supply constraints.
(16:55):
So for long term investors, the message is very clear.
Don't panic during geopolitical shocks. Evaluate your sector exposure, consider
reallocating to defense, energy and commodities if appropriate, and always
maintain a diversified portfolio. And as we always, stay informed,
(17:15):
stay invested, and stay intentional. Now you're listening to your
Money Matters, I'm your host, Drew Prescott, chartered retirement planning
counselor and a credited wealth management advisor here at Prescott
Private Wealth, and I'm here to help you make sense
of global events so that you can protect and grow
your wealth. And if you found today's episode valuable, be
(17:37):
sure to subscribe to your Money Matters podcast on your
favorite streaming platform. You can find it on our website
PRESCOTTPW dot com. It is right there, so as our
YouTube channel, you gotta sign up. You got to give
me a like and a subscribe please so we can
get this train.
Speaker 4 (17:56):
Move. And this is a big train.
Speaker 3 (17:58):
Too, so you think of how long how long.
Speaker 4 (18:01):
Does it take to get a train moving?
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Right, especially in this world, right, the financial world, everybody
and their brother seems to be involved in it. Those
that are licensed, those are not licensed. Everyone, you know,
it's like it's like belly buttons, right, everybody's got an
opinion on finances. So what now, Oh, you know what,
(18:24):
Let's talk about oil and the shock in the Strait of.
Speaker 4 (18:32):
Hormoz.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
This week, we've seen oil searched past seventy five dollars
a barrel. That's the highest level that we've seen since January.
And it's not just a blip on the screen. This
is a result of deep geopolitical tension between Israel and
Irian and at the center of it all the Strait
of Hormuz, which is a very narrow waterway responsible for
(18:57):
about thirty percent of the world's seaborn oil. And any
disruption here is not just a regional issue. This is
a global supply crisis. And this isn't the first time
that oil held the world's attention. So let's hop in
our financial time machine here and rewind to nineteen seventy three.
(19:20):
That's when the Yam Kapor War broke out, prompting OPEC
nations to retaliate against Western support for Israel by launching
an oil embargo. Now, the results were seismic, gas stations
ran dry, lines stretched for blocks, and inflation spiked. The
(19:44):
S and P five hundred took a massive hit. But
amidst the panic, a different story quietly unfolded, one of
incredible financial opportunity. And if your ears didn't just perk up,
let me say one more time. A different story quietly
(20:05):
unfolded here, and it was one of incredible financial opportunity.
If that doesn't get you excited, I don't know what's
going to But listen. While most of the markets suffered,
energy companies flourished. Who flourished Exxon, Shell, Chevron, and the
(20:25):
US arms of Saudi oil interests saw their share prices
sear So demand didn't drop, supply did. And when supply constricts,
prices and profits go up. Now here's the part that
(20:46):
too often goes untold. Every day investors who saw the
writing on the wall, who believed energy wasn't going anywhere,
they made life changing money. I'm going to share a
famous case of a school principle in Houston who shifted
(21:07):
a portion of his retirement into Exon stock in nineteen
seventy three. By the time he retired in the early nineties,
that investment had ballooned into millions. His kid's college tuition,
paid his retirement, secure, his grandkids set up with trust funds.
(21:33):
That's generational wealth born not during calm times, but forged
in moments of uncertainty. So fast forward to today, the
echoes of nineteen seventy three are allowed. Pay attention the
(21:54):
Israel Iran tensions that threatens the world's oil super.
Speaker 4 (21:59):
Highway once again.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
Sanctions, drone strikes, and naval skirmishes in the Gulf could
cause oil to skyrocket well beyond one hundred dollars a
barrel if the strait of horror moves is closed or
even restricted. So what's the modern play. We're not just
talking about Exon anymore. The twenty first century oil opportunity
(22:23):
lies not just in producers, but in infrastructure. So think pipelines,
Think refiners, think shipping, Think the unsung heroes who kept
the black gold flowing. Schlumberger, the world's largest oil field
services company, is already showing signs of a rally. Haliburton
(22:48):
is seeing contract expansions across the Middle East. Marathon Petroleum,
one of the top refiners in the US, is reporting
record margins. So even oil tanker companies are riding the wave.
Nordic American Tankers and Frontline Limited are gaining traction as
(23:10):
logistic challenges push freight rates even higher. And we can't
ignore the dividends either, because many of these companies are
offering high dividend yields, meaning not only are you betting
on growth, but you're getting paid to wait. And that's
a compelling combo for any long term investor. So for
(23:32):
those who prefer a broader exposure, there are some great
ETFs to consider as well, and some of these focus
on pipelines, which are less sensitive to crude prices but
still benefit from rising volume and demand. And these vehicles
offer a diversified way to ride the energy wave without
(23:53):
putting all of your eggs in one barrel, so to speak.
But here's a key reminder. Like in nineteen seventy three,
timing matters, and you don't want to chase after the
surge once these headlines are already priced in. Okay, I
(24:13):
always say listen if it's out there on barns in
a Wall Street journal. Guess what, You're too late because
everybody that works there already knows about it, and you're late.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
Now.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
We don't try to time the market, but we do
use some common sense. And you know you've lived long
enough that you should be able to take some of
this common sense and apply it, don't you think?
Speaker 4 (24:41):
But you don't want.
Speaker 3 (24:42):
To chase after these surge okay? Instead, focus on fundamentals,
look at balance sheets, dividend history, geopolitical exposure, and contract backlogs,
because the winners of tomorrow are being quietly acute simulated
right now. And history tells us something else. It tells
(25:06):
us that energy is cyclical. There are always booms and
there's always busts. But when macro conditions line up and
geopolitical tension mixes with constraints supply, it's often the energy
sector that takes the lead. And don't overlook natural gas either,
(25:28):
because with European demand surging due to reduced Russian imports,
we're seeing exporters like Chineer Energy are becoming global players
in a way that we have not seen since World
War iiO energy diplomacy so if you've ever looked back
(25:51):
at nineteen seventy three in thought, gosh, if I had
only invested in energy, then well, maybe, just maybe, this
is your second chance. As always, be thoughtful, diversify, and
don't overexpose your portfolio. But also don't ignore the signals either,
(26:15):
because history, as I always say, it doesn't repeat itself,
but it does rhyme. And for those of you who
are just joining us, you're listening to your money matters.
Speaker 4 (26:27):
I'm your host, Drew.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
Prescott, and I'm here to help you to code the news,
seize the opportunity, and build the kind of wealth that
lasts for generations. And what else do I want to cover?
Speaker 2 (26:41):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (26:42):
I got something for you. Holy moly, did you guys
see this?
Speaker 3 (26:45):
There were over sixteen billion passwords that were leaked across
multiple platforms including Apple, Google, Facebook, and dozens of lesser
known services. And this wasn't a small breach, This wasn't
a blip. This was the largest data leak in Internet history.
So let's break it down. Because when you look beyond
(27:06):
the fear, there's an opportunity hiding in plain sight. Like
I always say, if you're looking in the right place,
there's always an opportunity, So never look at the You
know what looks bad, right, You know who gets paid
the most in this world, and you know who becomes
(27:28):
the wealthiest those that can identify the opportunity to put
out a fire.
Speaker 4 (27:38):
So never look at the fire.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
Don't get distracted by the size, the heat and the
damage that's being done. Look for who's gonna put this
flame out? Okay, Now, for most people, hearing about a
breach triggers tremendous anxiety. Is my bank account safe? What
about my email? What about my photo? And these are
(28:01):
valid concerns, But smart investors ask a different question. What
industries stand to benefit from fixing the problem? And cybersecurity
is no longer a back office function or an IT
department checkbox. As a matter of fact, it's a frontline defense.
And with AI, quantum computing, and digital identity becoming the
(28:25):
backbone of modern life, cybersecurity firms are not just tech stocks.
They're now infrastructure. So let's rewind from some perspective here.
Back in the early two thousands, as the Internet expanded,
cybercrime just exploded, and firms like VeriSign, Symantec, and Checkpoint
(28:46):
Software were relatively unknown to the average investor, but to
those who spotted the trend, who understood that the web's
growth came with risk benefited enormalcy. You know, there's a
well known story of retire today.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
I guess it is all about education people.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
Hey, they did all right. But here's a well known
story about a retired teacher in Arizona who invested ten
thousand into checkpoints software back in two thousand and one.
Speaker 4 (29:19):
And she wasn't a tech expert.
Speaker 3 (29:21):
She was just tired of hearing about viruses, worms and
email scams. And that investment helped fund college for all
five of her grandchildren. And by the time that she passed,
she was able to put away.
Speaker 4 (29:35):
A chunk of money for her family.
Speaker 3 (29:38):
And that that's the kind of quiet, powerful investing that
we aim to uncover here at Prescott Private Wealth. Now
fast forward to today. The names have changed, but the
story is repeating. Companies like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Octa Zscaler,
they are the new guardians of the digital world world
(30:01):
and they protect cloud networks, They manage user identities, and
they help major enterprises defend against daily attacks, often hundreds
of thousands a day. So is that an opportunity I
think it is. Now let's talk about growth potential. According
(30:22):
to Gartner, global spending on cybersecurity will surpass two hundred
and fifteen billion dollars by twenty twenty six. That's more
than double what we spent just five years ago. Why
because companies know that a breach isn't just a technical issue,
it's a reputational and a financial disaster. So look at
(30:47):
what happened to Equifax, Target and even MGM Resorts. Stock prices,
consumer trust, and the entire business model were impacted. Cybersecurity
is becoming like insurance. You don't want to use it,
but you'd be insane not to have it. So how
do you, as a smart investor gain exposure to this trend? Well,
(31:09):
you could always go to the individual stock route, picking
one or two companies you know that are in that space.
Or if you prefer diversified approach, consider ETFs. Right, you
could look into there's several out there, so just do
your research on that.
Speaker 4 (31:27):
But also.
Speaker 3 (31:31):
Big picture, just like roads and bridges, we're infrastructure in
the twentieth century. Now, data security is the infrastructure of
the twenty first century. So it's not optional, it's not
a niche, it's core. And remember, every breach, every hack,
every password leak is not just a threat, it's a signal.
It's a signal that this industry is needed now more
(31:54):
than ever, and that means growth, that means investment, and
that means opportunity. And that's what we're here to do.
Let's spot it, let's understand it and help you take
action with wisdom and caution. And for those of you
who just joining us, you're listening to your money matters.
I'm your host, Drew Prescott, chartered retirement planning counselor and
(32:15):
a credited wealth management advisor.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
Do me a favor.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
Go to Prescott pw dot com, look for our podcast
and our YouTube channel. Please like and subscribe, and it
is going to that basket is going to get filled
up here working with our compliance team to get everything approved,
and it's going to come out fast and furious, and
(32:41):
it's going to be good information. So what do you
want to talk about next? Let's see it would be
something fun to talk about. We talked about that, you
know what, Let's do this. I always find this interesting. Yeah,
(33:03):
let's do that. This is this, this is a good thing.
So there's a lot of opportunities out here right now,
and we are seeing a heat wave, a major heat wave.
So is there an opportunity for some of these HVAC manufacturers.
Speaker 4 (33:27):
I think so.
Speaker 3 (33:28):
Also hydration, right, just like in nineteen fifties we saw
consumer staples rose alongside of utilities. Today's essentials hydration fans, sunscreen.
They're all short term plays with some real upside. So
you know, look for companies that are in the bottled.
Speaker 4 (33:51):
Water space, right.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
They all all the major companies, Pepsi, Coke Nesley, they
all have distribution of water now. And also consider some
dividend stocks. Now, all right, we saw we saw a
lot of movement here. I think there's a good opportunity
(34:14):
for some of that long term money to be in there.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
Now. We do have something major.
Speaker 3 (34:23):
Coming up here this coming week, scheduled for July twenty
fourth through the twenty fifth.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
Do you know what it is?
Speaker 3 (34:30):
Well, all eyes are on the Hague, the NATO Summit,
and it could be one of the most consequential gatherings
of military and economic minds since the Cold War. What's
on the table, Well, a significant proposal that member nations
increased defense spending to five percent of their GDP. Well,
(34:55):
i'll tell you what my clients are gonna be happy.
We've already made move not just for traditional military systems,
but to uncover cyber security, military infrastructure, and advanced defense
tech and the ongoing support for Ukraine. And if this
sounds like a lot of political posturing, think again. For
(35:18):
investors who understand the relationship between geopolitical risk and economic opportunity,
this summit could mark the beginning of a new industrial
defense cycle. So let's rewind the clock for a minute.
And by the way, if your advisor has not already
made these changes to your portfolio, call me. Okay, you
(35:44):
should not be the one coming with the idea. Call
me five one eight two zero three one nine eighty
three five one eight two zero three nineteen eighty three.
Speaker 4 (35:54):
Let's get you in.
Speaker 3 (35:55):
The office here, or have a zoom call. Let's get
you tightened up and prepare. Okay, let's batten down the
hatches here. Now I want to rewind the clock for
a little bit. Let's think about after World War Two. Now,
America's industrial might was really repurposed into defense at that time,
(36:17):
So think planes, tanks, and ships. They were no longer
just for war but they were a financial engine in
companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Raytheon. They all became
not only suppliers of military hardware, but really staples in
long term investment portfolios and defense contracts transformed once small
(36:40):
operations into national juggernauts. So if you take like a Raytheon,
for example, in nineteen forty, it was relatively obscure missile
and electronics company, but as defense demand grew, Raytheon adapted.
It's IPO created a path to wealth for early shareholders,
and those who reinvested dividends built portfolios that withstood everything
(37:05):
from recessions to inflation. Also consider Standard Oil as an example,
which pivoted during World War Two to produce aviation fuel
and lubricants, and it created specialized products for the military,
opening up global markets and reinforcing energy's critical role in
geopolitical strategies. And investors who stayed with Standard or later
(37:29):
Exxon saw decades of growth and dividend income. Now these
weren't just business successes. These were generational wealth events. Parents
passed down shares to children, grandchildren used dividends to pay
for college, retirement accounts swelled, and these stories really became
blueprints for how wartime innovation in government spending can supercharge
(37:54):
entire sectors. And now the echo here is unmistakable. Today,
the global defense landscape is shifting fast. The war in
Ukraine has reawakened Europe's attention to military readiness. The Pacific
region is on edge due to China maneuvering around Taiwan.
(38:15):
Cyber attacks from Nation State.
Speaker 4 (38:22):
How do I want to say that?
Speaker 3 (38:23):
I guess what Really, what I want to say is
that the cyber attacks here from Nation States actors are
now really their daily reality. So when NATO talks about
bumping defense budgets to five percent of GDP, it's not
just about tanks and troops. It's also about technology, and
(38:44):
it's also about satellite surveillance, missile defense, AI driven threat detection,
drone fleets, and real time communication grids. And this means
massive new investment in companies that can meet the demands.
So let's talk about some of the biggest player's poised
to benefit here. Now I've mentioned some of these companies already.
Speaker 4 (39:10):
Okay, I'm not.
Speaker 3 (39:13):
Not recommending you personally to buy these I'm just identifying
companies like a Lockheed Martin, a Northrop Groomman General Dynamics,
Raytheon Technology pallunteer L three Harris. So do some research
you don't you don't know how to, you don't like to,
(39:35):
I do.
Speaker 4 (39:36):
Call me.
Speaker 3 (39:36):
I'll do it for you. If you want, you can
pay me a one time fee to build your portfolio
for you. Or if you need ongoing support, you want
someone proactive, you can hire me and I charge a
fee off of your portfolio. If you need a financial plan,
(40:00):
I'll put together a financial plan for you for a fee.
Speaker 4 (40:03):
Okay, I really truly believe.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
I got a very very strong conviction that this is
incredible territory to make major wealth for those who are
willing to step out a little bit, take a little
bit of chance, and to be disciplined and not listen
(40:30):
to one of your friends that is telling you differently.
As a matter of fact, they had a hilarious well
it was a show at a point. But anyways, I
just came up with the headline for it for the podcast.
Speaker 4 (40:47):
And it was.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
Misdiagnosed financially by a doctor. Every time I think it
just gets me laughing. And I gave the discript sure,
which I thought was hilarious. As I'm writing at my
wife is laughing at me. But I said, remember we
were kids. We all like to dress up as doctors,
(41:10):
as cops, as firemen. And I said, well, this doctor
that gave financial advice to one of the other doctors
that he works with. I said, well, it seems like
maybe he enjoys playing pretend and makeup as a financial advisor.
(41:32):
So be careful. I've kind of been watching that story.
It's not going very well for the recipient. So but again,
they're taking a lot more risk than what they should
be and certain they're losing sleep. I'm certain they're losing
(41:55):
sleep over that deal. So you need to be tuned
into the risk that you're comfortable with. I'll tell you
what I tell every one of my clients. I want
to find out the risk that you feel comfortable with.
I want to identify quality stocks and holdings that align
(42:17):
with that risk. Okay, so I can't control ray to return,
but I can control the risk and the quality of
the investments that you hold. And that's my promise to you.
If we do a good job there, the rest should
heal itself.
Speaker 4 (42:37):
And let's see what else we talked about.
Speaker 3 (42:43):
Cybersecurity. We talked about NATO here. I think I have
some other stuff that I yeah, I know what I
was gonna do. Let's do That's that's good. So we
have something here that's important to touch base on as well.
Speaker 4 (43:02):
Let's let's talk about this.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
I'm going to use an example here for a case
that I'm working on right now, doing some financial planning.
Speaker 4 (43:15):
For a couple.
Speaker 3 (43:18):
They're very heavily invested into real estate, young couple, and
their state is you know, approximately, let's say it's about
fifty million, Okay, And what we have going on here
is the fella is always kind of looking for home runs.
(43:49):
And then on the end, he's always looking for home
runs on the real estate side. Then on the personal
investing he's incredibly conservative. And what he has experienced is
(44:10):
a byproduct of his behavior. And here's what it is.
Every time he meets somebody that has a fresh idea
and has a big opportunity, it's just a music to
(44:30):
his ears.
Speaker 4 (44:30):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
He hops into these new relationships and there's about five
different financial advisors. None of them talk to one another.
They're all just competing with one another, calling them weekly
with a new sales pitch. A new commission based product,
pre IPO stuff and just just he's got to coming
(44:57):
at him from every angle and he slows down to
give everybody an opportunity. And there is so many different
things that this man is in. Him and his wife
are invested in, and what they know very well is
real estate. And so we put together financial plan form.
(45:20):
It's not a traditional financial plan, of course, because anybody
that's in real estate, it's really not about retirement income
because if you hold the assets, well, there's your income.
Your retirement's going to look the same as it does
during your so called working years. Right, So what are
their concerns? What needs to be brought to the table here? Well,
(45:43):
tax efficiency, estate planning, proper investing. And inside of this,
there's a lot of changes that we were able to
a point to that could bring much more efficient plan
(46:07):
to him and his wife. And right now they've got
a few insurance policies kicking around again, just sold by
different individuals. Kids got insurance policies. Husband and wife have
separate different a few policies on each one putting money
(46:31):
away in this type of retirement plan for this one
company and this type of plan for their other company.
It's very sloppy. And what we're able to do was
bring everything together into a singular account for you know,
(46:54):
singular retirement account, singular individual account, and brings simplicity and
a tactical awareness that is focused on taxation. And let
me just share with you one piece, so he says
(47:15):
before the meeting, I really hope this is worth my
time and I hope it's worth my money.
Speaker 4 (47:24):
And this individual.
Speaker 3 (47:29):
Paid a few thousand dollars for this financial plan, and
just in one area, we were able to identify a
way to save the two of them future taxation, a
(47:49):
total savings of about one point two million dollars just
simply by implementing.
Speaker 4 (47:58):
Wroth conversions over the years.
Speaker 3 (48:01):
Not to mention how we are going to be able
to help plan for what could be a rather sizable
estate tax bill, because as they get older, their pile
gets bigger, As their pile gets bigger, their children's, as
(48:26):
state tax bill gets bigger, and we're helping them plan
for that. So there's a lot that we can do.
And a state tax is one of those things that
a lot of people want to brush off to the side.
And I can tell you this if you're in your forties, fifties.
Speaker 4 (48:46):
God bless you.
Speaker 3 (48:46):
If you're in your thirties and you have the potential
to grow a sizeable estate. It's absolutely beautiful, fantastic foresight
for you to slow down and sit with us and
get this under wraps today. Because nobody likes insurance. No
(49:07):
one likes to pay for insurance, okay, is a beautiful
tool butt. I don't care who you are. You're a
lunatic if you like to pay for insurance. But we
can help you put together an estimate on your state
tax bill now, forecast it out for the future, and
help you to protect these assets so that they're either
(49:31):
not accountable or that you have the proper insurance is
in place to pay that bill, to reduce what that
bill costs go from dollar for dollar down to cents
on the dollar, just simply by having the right insurance program.
Speaker 4 (49:46):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (49:48):
Additionally, what I have seen and have helped people with
is a lot of times people are sold the wrong
insurance policy when they're younger, and then when they're in
their seventies and sometimes eighties, they're replacing that policy or
(50:10):
adding to and it now will cost them tens of
thousands of dollars annually in their youth now cost them
hundreds of thousands of dollars in their late seventies and eighties.
And you can do this efficiently with foresight, and I
(50:31):
can help you with that. So again, thank you so
much for listening today. This has been I don't know
about you, but this war has just is all over
the place, right. I mean, I don't care who you are.
Even people that are not political are like, wow, we're
going to war. Yeah, because this is real, this is happening.
(50:54):
But remember what I said earlier. Those that get rich
and the wealthy are the ones that look for the
individuals and the companies that can put the fire out.
They don't stand there mesmerized by the fire and wait
for more to come. They look around and survey the
scene and see who is coming to the rescue in
(51:14):
this situation. And that's where the money is to be made.
And I want to help you get there. Okay, you're
listening to your money matters. I'm your host, Drew Prescott,
chartered retirement planning counselor and accredited wealth management advisor. And
there is a lot to be done on everyone's finances.
(51:39):
If you are working with a financial advisor, and you
feel as though what I've touched on today is a
little bit above and beyond.
Speaker 4 (51:46):
What your advisor's talking about.
Speaker 3 (51:48):
If you're a victim of mutual funds, if you are
one of the individuals that called up and said, my
friend said I should call you, and I've got one
hundred thousand dollars just for an example, I got one
hundred thousand dollars in my four oh one k and
I'm going to roll it over. If they go, oh, yeah, fantastic.
(52:10):
You know this is what we do, and you know
we're going to put you into classic American fun mutual funds. Okay,
great company. Don't get me wrong. I'm not knocking them.
I'm knocking the advisor here. If they put you into
a shares and they're just grabbing a commission off of you,
(52:37):
well they've welded themselves to that recommendation. There is no
flexibility in that. So where you start is where you're
going to end.
Speaker 4 (52:46):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (52:47):
The fees are high, the commissions are even higher, and
that is not a fiduciary standard. So I would encourage
you to call me. I am a fiduciary. I will
help you on a fee based approach and we can
be proactive in monitoring your investments and putting together financial plan.
(53:15):
We've got a wonderful year agoing here. Wonderful year. Everything
is going well. We have a lot of new clients
that have joined us, some from this show. Most are
from referrals, but always looking to have the right growth.
So if you have a portfolio that is over two
(53:38):
hundred and fifty thousand dollars, please call. If you have
portfolio that's above one hundred thousand dollars and you have
the ability to continue to put away, please call.
Speaker 4 (53:58):
I could bring you a lot of value.
Speaker 3 (54:00):
You that much I'm convinced of I've yet to meet
with somebody that I cannot improve upon their picture in
some fashion. And that doesn't always mean that I become
your financial advisor. But give us a call. You're listening
to your money matters. I'm your host, Drew Prescott, President
and chartered Retirement Planning Counselor and accredited wealth management advisor
(54:23):
here at Prescott Private Wealth, located at four point fifty
one Who's Ex Street in Troy, New York. Again, thank
you so much for listening today. Go on PRESCOTTPW dot com.
Go to podcasts and youtubes. Please like and subscribe and
there's gonna be endless incredible information out there. Okay, and
(54:45):
for those of you that are like me that have
a short attention span, I'll keep it fun. I'll give
you little blips if you want to sign up in
our email. I'm going to send them out weekly, and
if there's a timely event, we'll do that as well.
Thank you so much for lit listen. May God bless
you and God bless your family, and I hope you
have a wonderful Sunday. Until then, I'll talk to you
(55:07):
next week. And don't forget bring your tissues. Next week's
my last week. I'm looking forward to seeing you there,
all right, Thanks so much, have a great weekend.
Speaker 4 (55:19):
Take care,
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On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!