Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
The big banks claim they are looking after small businesses
and competition in the sector is hotter than ever. The
local share market falls to a new near six month low,
and scientists provide upgraded warnings about ultra processed foods plus
wages growth stabilizers. But that doesn't mean we can expect rapecuts.
(00:28):
And Donald Trump calls a female reporter piggy. It is Thursday,
the twentieth of November twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson
and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. The
main story this morning. The big banks have defended their
support for small and medium sized businesses with A and
Z boss Nu no Matos, saying competition in the sector
(00:48):
is strong, adding that mortgages are far less profitable than
they were fifteen years ago.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Mattos got his turn at the House of Representatives Economics
Committee meeting yesterday and pushed back on critics, saying the
banks are focused on big lenders but not small lenders.
While capital standards insisted on by the regulators sometimes make
lending to small business tough, the sector is the hottest
part of the market. According to Matos, He said two
(01:15):
things might help the process of small and mediumized businesses
getting financed. One a standard definition of what a small
business is in all regulation. That would reduce a lot
of confusion. And two, tax information on small businesses to
be made available to the banks when consents granted. That
would make it a lot easier to approve loans. He
(01:36):
said banks were about sixty percent less profitable today than
ten years ago. That's in reference to the mortgages and
the fact that that market has been so hot now.
He wasn't talking in dollar terms, of course, he was
talking in terms of return on equity. But he's point
there being that people are now chasing the small business
sector because there are bigger margins in that and that
means competition is hot, and that's a good thing for
(01:58):
small businesses.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
Cue Curious, isn't there that there's no standard definition of
small business? And that feels like a no brainer really.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Yes, particularly when it comes to governments, so state and
federal regulations, because if there was a standard small business definition,
that would make life a lot easier.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Well, are you saying that there are inconsistencies between different
levels of government.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
Surely not surely.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
Not, definitely not now. Nuno Matos's counterpart at National Australia Bank,
Andrew Irvine, agreed that APRA's conservative risk settings restrict levels
of business lending.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Yes, but like Mathos, Irvine added, it's not a bad thing.
Loan losses in Australia are lower than other jurisdictions. Irvine
said that small business could be knocked around by government
policy just as much so. He cited a case where
a small food business had to spend sixty thousand dollars
in a new printer because their government regulation changed the
(02:58):
required font size on their products. Irvine said he what
would help all business was a focus on sourcing cheaper
energy for homes as well as businesses. That means focusing
more on getting renewable projects approved, though he also backs
gas in the medium term. He also added that building
more houses is absolutely essential. Housing construction is being held
(03:21):
back by too few tradees with building skills being allowed
into the country. That's according to Andrew Irvine.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
All right, I'm curious because over the past two days
now we've had the bosses of the big four banks
appearing before the committee. They run four of the five
biggest companies in the country, so we get a tremendous
insight into a whole lot of stuff. If you were
to summarize what we've learned, could you do it in
(03:47):
forty seconds? Probably not. No.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
The banks have taken a relatively hard line in some things.
They over passed a couple of days. They're not shying
away from lending to gas uses, for example. They all
agree that energy is a major challenge for Australia. While
they acknowledge APRA's introduced some tough standards around lending, they
insist there is money available for small business and of
course they're calling for a more level playing field in
(04:13):
the payment sector so they can take on the tech giants.
On the economy, I reckon that all the CEOs Commonwealth Bank, Westpac,
National Australia Bank am Z, we're all pretty confident that
things are going in the right direction. Some think there'll
be rate cuts next year. Westpac believes that, but the
bosses of Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank disagree and
(04:34):
reckon the rate cut cycle is over. That's more than
forty seconds. In four seconds, the banks have plenty of gripes, Michael,
but generally things going pretty well.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Shows how really no one knows exactly what's going to
happen with rates. When you even have the CEOs of
the banks with all of the data that their economics
teams have at their disposal, and they still disagree on
what the outlook is, it shows that really at this
point we just.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Don't know exactly right exactly right now.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Sean, I think we were lucky that the local market
had the mining stocks yesterday. Because we had the share
prices of the gold diggers and the big resource and
energy companies rising, much of the rest of the market fell.
It pushed the SMPA six two hundred to a near
six month low, down a quarter of a percent to
eighty four hundred and forty eight points.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Materials were by far the stronger sector. Gold prices lifted,
so to do the share prices of companies like Northern Star,
Evolution Mining, Neumont Forest, few metals, rear tinto bedge p
were all high. Crude or prices rose. That's as markets
based for deeper disruptions to Russian supply, with Europe and
the US moving to further restrict Moscow's ability to fund
its year in Ukraine. That was good years for Woodside,
(05:43):
Santos and Beach Energy. Some of the tech stocks even
reversed recent declines, whilst Global and Zero were both higher.
But the big banks fell. When the big banks fall, well,
it's hard for the market to do anything else but
fall ain Zed was off two percent, West Pakin, Commonwealth
Bank more than one percent, National Australia Bank about three
quarters of a percent, and as quickly Sewan.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
US markets are waiting on Nvidia results, which are due
in a few hours this morning.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Yes, I can't remember when one company's earnings have been
so focused on It really is the litmus test for AI.
Will tell you, of course, what happens in the afternoon edition.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
I suspect we shall. We'll be back in a moment
with the rest of the day's business news. Sean wages
growth is contained notwithstanding a tight labor market, but still
remains a cause of inflationary pressure in the economy. The
wage price index ray zero point eight percent in the
(06:44):
September quarter three point five percent for the full year,
unchanged from three months earlier, pretty much in line with
Reserve Bank forecasts. Last quarter's rise reflected healthcare and social
assistance industry wages growth It included the three and a
half percent rise in the minimum wage by Fair Work Commission,
which was actually a bit lower than last year. Public
Sector wages ticked up, growing just under four percent in
(07:06):
annual terms, mainly driven by state government pay rises. Private
sector wages were a bit over three percent.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Now public sector wages ab outpaced private sector wage growth
for three consecutive course lots and all that. What's it
mean for interest rates and inflation? That's what you really
want to know? Yeah, I mean, the lab market's doing
pretty much what the Reserve Bank thinks it will do,
and without a rise in productivity, it's hard to see
the Central Bank cutting interest rates anytime soon.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
I love that now you asked the questions that I
was going to ask you. You know, it is now
so predictable that I'm going to ask you what does
it mean for interest rates? Sean Drone Shield, which is
we've talked a lot about Drone Shield. It is the
stock that went from seventy five cents to six dollars
sixty a share in the ten months to October has
nearly halved in the past month, including a near twenty
(07:57):
percent drop Yesterday. It finished at a dollar nine seven
a share. Yesterday's drop was because the boss of the
US operations quit rather abruptly.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Yes, so dron Shield, of course does exactly what its
name suggests. Defense mechanisms for drone attacks makes sense. It
should be a pretty good business given the geopolitical climate
of twenty twenty five. Everyone thought it was. But then
the company misannounced a new contract. It got sold off
a little bit. Then its chair and ceo offloaded a
bunch of stock. The CEO sold down about fifty million
(08:28):
dollars worth of stock. Now the US boss has gone
effective immediately. Investors do not like these sorts of stories
and bang it it's been hammered.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
Do they have a cumulative effect? Kind of like one
of these or maybe two would be okay and there'd
be a bit of a dip, But when you just
get one after the other, after the other after the other,
it starts to get a bit of kind of negative
hype around it.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Yes, And when you have the CEO in the chair
selling I think combined about sixty sixty five million dollars
worth of shares, you think one of the these guys
know that we donate, and you think maybe this time
to get out.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
Yeah, Yeah, that's why it's always good to get some
professional advice before making investment decisions. Indeed, now the federal
government is considering forcing super funds to contribute to the
compensation scheme of Last Resort that could compensate consumers for
poor financial advice.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
This comes in the wake of the failure of Shield
and First Guardian, which private credit funds which many DIY investors,
like DIY super Investors, had invested in. The two year
old compensation scheme of Last Resort has raised three hundred
and forty five million dollars from financial advisors, banks, a lenders, insurers,
stock and mortgage brokers. The ideas they compensate financial consumers
(09:44):
who lose money as a result of bad financial advice
or fraud, so should super funds also contribute to that. Now,
the Union movement, very big player in the four point
three trillion dollar super sector, reject the idea totally, saying
working people shouldn't be paying a mandatory level when regulators
haven't done their job.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
Okay, Now, quick wrap of some corporate news sean some
briefs as brief call it. Webjet sarch seventeen percent yesterday
after Hello World logged a ninety cent a share takeover bid.
Having quietly built a sizable stake in the online travel
agency over the past half year.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Or so, New Farm jumped as analysts of the group's
twenty twenty six profit guidance pointed to strong earnings growth.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
TPG Telecom fell as it raised three hundred million dollars
through the issue of new shares to institutional investors, but
it cut the size of the round after the death
of a Sydney customer who was unable to reach triple
zero due to an outdated Samsung phone. We spoke about
that one yesterday.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
In KMD Brands, the owner of cap Mandu, ripcoll and
o Boz rose five percent as first quarter GRIP sales
grew eight percent year on year for the period from
August to October.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
You'd be a big fan of Obos, wouldn't you, Sean.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
I never know had pronounce a work. I don't know it, boss.
I don't even know the shoes right, Yes, okay, choes,
they're great walking shoes. Ooh, boss, there we go.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
Well, at least you knew what they what they are
and how they work.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
They're good, They're very tough.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
Okay, all right, there we go. Nice little endorsement, not
an advertiser. Turning to International News Now, Shawn Paramount sky
Dance as working with a consortium of Middle East and
sovereign wealth funds on a seventy one billion US dollar
offer for Warner Brothers.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
Discovery Variety is reporting that Paramount is working with Saudi
a Arabia's Public Investment Fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, and
the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority to get the deal across
the line. Each of these sovereign funds would contribute seven
billion dollars, and Paramount Skydance would lay out about fifty
(11:49):
billion US dollars. The board of Warner Brothers has previously
rejected multiple offers from Paramount, but this latest bid is
about twenty percent higher. According to Bloomberg, Warner Brothers has
put itself up for sale, said a deadline for bids
is tonight US time. Paramount looks like it's going to
make that bid, but also Netflix and Comcast are expected
(12:10):
to make an offer for the film. In streaming parts
of the business that at this point, Paramount might be
the only group that wants the whole.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Lot, okay, rather than having to split it up exactly okay, Now,
the White House Sean I mentioned this at the top
of the show. The White House has defended President Donald
Trump for basically shushing a female reporter and calling her piggy.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
In an interaction on board Air Force one to merro
Lago in Florida. Trump was being asked why he was
urging Republicans not to release the Epstein files. This was
the head of his backflip a few days over that issue.
Now Bloomberg White House reporter Catherine Lucy began asking a
question about why Trump opposed releasing the files if, as
(12:58):
he claimed, there was nothing incriminating about him and the documents.
Trump then pointed a finger at her and said, quite
quite piggy. Amazing. According to the White House, the statement
it put out quote not backing down at all, this
reporter behaved in an inappropriate and unprofessional way towards her
(13:18):
colleagues of the plane. If you're going to give it,
you have to be able to take it. It's not
clear what part of Lizzy's conduct was viewed as inappropriate
or unprofessional. But I'll tell you what to say to
someone quite quite piggy, that's unprofessional.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
Oh. Absolutely, I've watched that video, and I can't tell
what was inappropriate about the way that that question was
being asked. It's a media scrum. There's always questions being
kind of called out. But in the end, I think
it was probably just the nature of the question that
was objectionable.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
To the nature of the answer too.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
Indeed, I thought that was just appalling. Okay, one more Sean.
This is a bit of a worry. I'm paranoid at
the best of times. This story does not help. Scientists
are warning that the mass commercialization and global growth of
ultra processed foods is posing a threat to public health
and is contributing to the development of chronic diseases.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
In a new Lanset series, a panel of forty three
global researchers reveal the impact of worsting diets and core
for stronger political policies to reduce dependence on ultra processed foods.
In essence, they claim that what people eat is fueled
by powerful global corporations that generate huge profits by prioritizing
ultra process products. That is preventing effect. That power from
(14:38):
those corporations is preventing effective public health policies and messages
to support healthy eating. Now UFPS ultra processed foods include
low nutrition convenience foods. They can include things like chips,
breakfast cereals, instant soups, desserts, some ready made meals, meal replacements,
(14:58):
even some flavored yogurt high in fats, sugar, and or salt.
So how do we know which one's to recognize in
terms of high upfs. Basically, if it comes in plastic, Okay,
you could be in trouble. If you list. If you
(15:18):
read the ingredients list and there's one, two or more
unrecognizable food or numbers products you probably wouldn't traditionally cook
or buy, well, you're probably in trouble.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
Okay, all right, Like last year, I took bacon off
my list because I'm not supposed to eat that anymore,
and a bunch of other things. Now it's anything that
comes in plastic. I am getting very, very concerned about
the range. When you got young kids who are pretty
picky at the best of times. Gosh, this is getting
tough now, Sean, tis up Next is something a little
(15:57):
bit different today, Fear and greed A. You're speaking with
David Booth, who is the founder of one of the
world's first index funds. He founded dimensional fund Advisors and
in the early eighties, and I think they have about
one point four trillion Aussie dollars in assets under management.
There's a big, big, big But he's just released a
(16:19):
documentary about his life. It's called Tune Out the Noise
and you spoke to him from Austin.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Fascinating. It basically goes through he and his co founders,
I suppose life journeys to get where they are now.
Their argument and what they're selling is that index funds
is better than active fund investing. But he goes through why.
He even nominates why there's occasionally, you know, an outlier,
so we actually ask him about Warren Buffett, whether or
(16:47):
not Warren Buffett fits into his theory. It's a really
interesting chat.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
It's a great one. It's coming up next in the
Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at
Fear Andgreed dot Com todatu, which is where you sign
up for the free daily newsletter. Thank you Sean, Thank
you Michael. It's Thursday, the twentieth of November twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael
Thompson and that wasphere and greed have a great day.