Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to fear and greed business news you can use today.
A surge in jobs dashes hopes of any more rate cuts,
the Liberal Party officially DUMPSN at zero, and a Sydney
fortune teller and her daughter charged over an alleged seventy
million dollar fraud scheme. Plus a house in northern New
South Wales sells for just one dollar and the US
penny minted for the very last time. It is Friday,
(00:28):
the fourteenth of November twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson
and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Good morning. What a neclectic mix of stories we have today.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
It is a real mixed bag, Sean. The main story
this morning, hopes of a rate cut over the next
six months, really nosedived after the unemployment rate fell to
four point three percent last month, adding to evidence that
inflation pressures remain in the Australian economy.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
The drop in the jobless rate from four and a
half a cent in September to four point three percent
in October came after the number of employed people rose
by forty two thousand, well above expectations. If you look
behind that top line number fifty five thousand more full
time employees offset slightly by thirteen thousand part time employees.
(01:16):
Their participation rate, which is the percentage of working age
Australians in the labor force, held steady at a very
high sixty seven percent.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
Now.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
The Reserve Bank has consistently warned that it felt the
labor market remained tight, but with the unemployment rate considered
the best broad measure of employment, the ABS data yesterday
suggests well, it did suggest things easing. Yesterday's data suggests
maybe not. The Reserve Bank has said fewer workers were
(01:45):
being laid off, more people were voluntaryly quitting their jobs
to take up other employment, and there was less uneremployment
as part time has secured more hours. Maybe they were right.
In fact, on Wednesday, Deputy Governor Andrew Howses said the
local labor market was very strong compared to other countries.
They're probably running around this morning feeling very vindicated at
(02:06):
the moment, the Reserve Bank.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Oh yeah, yeah. The the interesting thing here is financial markets,
because it was better than expected. Right, this number was
a lot stronger than was expected. There was quite a
reaction by financial markets.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
Yeah, so bond markets reflect interest rate expectations. You know that, Michael,
very well. I do. Before yesterday data the local marketed
priced in kind of about a sixty seventy percent chance
of a rate cut by the middle of next year.
Following the release, that immediately fell to thirty percent or
a little less than that. And we're not talking I mean,
we're talking about there may not be any more rate
(02:42):
cuts full stop.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
It might be the end of it.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
That might be the end of it. The local boss
took a dive on the news. The s and PA
six two hundred fell one percent to a ten week
low immediately after the news. Now it came back a bit,
but the point with interest rates, lower interest rates helps earning,
so if we're not going to get lower interest rates,
earnings won't be helped. Therefore, shares were sold off. The
ausidollar jumped on the news. Sixty five point six zero
(03:07):
US sense. Basically in the short term, interest rates matter
for currencies now. Federal treasure Jim Chalmers was pretty upbeat
about the whole thing. He said it was a very
positive result in Australia is one of the few countries
around the world that has kept people in jobs in
the face of global uncertainty. That four point three percent
number is tracking close to the Reserve Bank's forecast now.
Leading indicators of the jobs markets suggest it is slowing,
(03:30):
but the labor market is making it very tough for
the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Okay, let's have a look at politics now. Sure, Sure,
because we said this is a mixed bag and there
is a lot we've got to get through.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
The coalition were wading through the serious stuff upfront, because
it does start to get sillier.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
There are some fascinating stories coming up after the break.
The coalition would repeal Australia's near end long term climate
targets from legislation if it returns to government.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Position leader Susan Lee confirmed that the Liberal Party will
abandon its policy commitment to achieve net zero emissions by
twenty fifty, joining coalition partner the Nationals. Send your Liberals.
After a three hour meeting yesterday morning, agreed to remain
in the Paris Agreement if elected, and would set interim
emission reduction targets, but the Libs wouldn't commit Australia to
(04:21):
any long term aspiration to reach net zero. Yesterday, Lee
said Australians deserve affordable energy and responsible missions reduction, and
the Liberal Party could do both without zero commitments. The
next step is the Libs the Nats to negotiate a
sure a shared position on climate change, much easier now
that they both have dumped net zero that schedule to
(04:41):
occur over the weekend.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Australia's chance of hosting next year's cop Meeting Sean appears
somewhat remote after the Turkish president wrote to our Prime
minister saying he will not back down from his country's
bid to claim hosting rights for next year's UN Climate Summit.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Yeah so. Anthony Alberzi said that President Erdigan had written
to him to restate Turkey's desire to host the event,
which typically attracts about fifty thousand visitors to the host city,
leaving the two countries at an in pass with just
over a week left to resolve the issue. Now. Alberanzi
had written to Urdigan twice in the last month and
(05:23):
an attempt to strike a deal which could involve splitting
hosting duties between the two countries. If an agreement can't
be reached, neither country will host it will end up
being hosted by a German city.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Okay, that's the series look asterwards, but there is a
real mixed bag.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
For this couple. They start going downhill.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Okay, we will take a quick break back in a
moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean
the Corporate Regulator has launched civil penalty proceedings against research
house SQM Research, alleging that it published misleading favorable ratings
(06:04):
for the shield Master Fund and failed to meet required
standards in its reporting.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
What you need to know about this story is that
the shield Master Fund failed. This is really significant as
getting a bit antsy about research houses and ratings agencies.
Remember a couple of weeks ago, in its report on
the private credit sector, the regulator had a swipe at
ratings agencies, saying they had limited capacity for independent verification
(06:29):
in the private credit sector. Now it's doing SQM Research,
one of the big research houses around town, claiming that
in reports issued in October twenty twenty one, March twenty two,
and October twenty two, it rated various shield classes as
three and three quarter stars favorable without actually properly verifying
information or addressing inconsistencies. Assek alleges the firm misrepresented that
(06:55):
it had a reasonable basis and exercised due care in
giving the to the Shield Master Fund. Approximately fifty eight
hundred investors relied on financial advisors who used SQM research
report to recommend Shield. That's what ACIK doesn't like.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
This story is not going away, is it.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
No, it's really really interesting that ACIK is getting aggressive
on research houses and ratings agencies, particularly because so many
of us rely on them when we think about where
we're going to put our money.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Yeah. Absolutely, Now, accounting software group Zeros after tax profit
rose forty two percent in the first half of its
financial year. That's its strongest performance in years. Yet investors
dumped the stock yesterday, with at share price falling nine percent.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Yes, investors weren't impressed with Zero's quality of earnings, and
we're concerned about the pace of customer acquisitions. CEOs A
Kinder seeing Cassidy said the core of zero success was
its performance against a key industry benchmark, so called rural forty.
Without getting to technical the widely watched metrics is a
healthy growing as company. Software as a service company should
(08:03):
have revenue growth plus profit margin of more than forty percent.
I don't ask me to explain that one any further.
Zero reported a rule of forty outcome of forty four
point five percent. All that's fine. Vestors didn't like it, No,
nine percent set off love that.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
We promised that stories were going to get a bit
silly after the break. So far we have not lived
up to the promise.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
That we made in sure that's coming, I promise.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Okay, that was zero. The rest of the ASX yesterday
we did mention briefly the abduct of the.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Jobs percent then finished half percent lower to eight seven
five three points. Broadly, the tech stocks and property groups
sold off. Materials companies did best. Ain Z fell five percent.
It went ex dividend though, and Westpac were lower. CBA higher,
But most of the action really was with the tech stocks.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Can we give a special shout out to Drone Shields?
It has been a share marker Darling really this year?
Not anymore this year? Yeah, it's share price thirty one
percent yesterday after the chair and chief executive both sold
a significant amount of stock.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
Yes so, Chief executive Olig Vornick sold nearly fifteen million chairs,
valued at about fifty million dollars. It was when he
sold them, not anymore. Chairman Peter James sold at twelve
point three five million dollars worth of shares. Investors don't
like it when management sell out. The thirty one percent
drop yesterday took the month long drop a little bit
(09:30):
over a month to sixty six percent.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Sean, This is a both a serious story and it
is quite extraordinary in the detail as well. A Sydney
woman who claimed to be a fortune teller and Fung
shwe master and her daughter as well. They've both been
charged over an alleged seventy million dollar fraud and money
laundering scheme.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
Please say. The pair duped vulnerable clients into taking out
large lines based on false predictions that they would soon
meet a billionaire.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
Right.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
The woman allegedly pocketed the proceeds through a sophisticated network
of fake companies and bank accounts officers sees luxury goods,
gold bars, and casino chips during raids at the pairs
thirteen million dollar home. Now it's part of an investigation
into a broader syndicate by Strike Force at Middleton, set
up to investigate a criminal group allegedly using stolen identities
(10:23):
to get loans for ghost cars, masurely luxury cars that
don't exist. The New South Wales Crime Commission has now
frasen seventy five million dollars in assets linked to the syndicate.
The head of the New South Wales Financial Crime Squad said,
I quote what began as an investigation into fraudulent car
financing has expanded into uncovering one of the most sophisticated
financial crime syndicates I have seen in my career end quote.
(10:46):
So one of the most sophisticated financial crime syndicates he's
seen is a feng Shui master and fortune teller watching
teller duping seventy million dollars allegedly just extraordinary.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Finally, before we get to international news, sean a couple
in northern New South Wales has paid one dollar for
a house located on the floodplains of Lismore, which is
possibly the cheapest house sold in the last century.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
I made that last bit up. I've mean it could
be the chiefest houseald sold ever. I'm sure house has
been given away. But one dollar, yeah, one dollar.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
Because occasionally you hear about kind of remote towns, particularly
in kind of Queensland, that will sell houses for a
dollar or five dollars or something and they're just doing
it as a as an effort to build up a population.
But this is a bit different.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
So eleven properties sold at the auction this week at
the Woomba Mawoomba rs so you can pronounce that better
than wabam Wollemba will that's it Wollemba RSL. Four homes
sold for five dollars, another for two hundred dollars and
this one for one dollar. Basically about fourteen or fifteen
thousand dollars for the eleven homes in total. The young
(11:55):
couple that bought the two hundred dollar house used to
rent it. They went to the RSL the see what
it would get and walked out owning it. Now a
little bit of a catch with this. It's part of
the New South Wales government's buyback scheme for food affected housing.
The government's purchased the homes and land and are selling
the homes or the houses. So buyers they've got to
(12:16):
cut the house in half, load it on truck, restump
it on their own land. That probably need to glue
it together or whatever you do. You cut the house
in half, you've probably got renovation in there too. But
basically we're talking about.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
I suddenly just you were going so well and then
your lack of knowledge when it comes to it's like
do you buy.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
House glowing the restumping. I was really proud that I knew.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
That that sounded that sounded legit, but the gluing.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
Kind of so it probably costs, you know, one hundred
thousand dollars plus renovation costs, but that's better than what
four or five hundred thousand for a new home.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Yeah, yeah, that's it is a pretty incredible story, and
it comes out of kind of what was such an
awful time with those those floods up there. But now
hopefully these couples can take these houses and build something
new out.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Of it, lose them together again, glue them.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Back together again. Short turning to international news. Now, President
Donald Trump has signed a spending package to reopen the
US government, a measure passed by the Republican led House
that ended the record forty three day shutdown.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
The package extends funding for the federal government through to
January thirty and includes fully funding for the Agriculture Department,
military construction, and the legislative branch. The resolution of the
standoff ensures paychecks for federal employees, including air traffic controllers
and sends hundreds of thousands of furloughed government workers back
to the job, but it postponed until later this year.
(13:46):
The central political fight how to address the expiration of
hefty healthcare subsidies that are set to be cut off
for millions of households.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
Finally, Sean feels like the end of an era. Does
I like that the very last penny in the US
worth one cent has been minted after President Donald Trump
ordered the coin discontinued earlier this year.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Yeah, so it will still be legal tender, but just
won't be manufacturing anymore. Do you know how many pennies
are in circulation?
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Quite a few?
Speaker 2 (14:20):
Like many, three hundred billion billion with a B. Yeah,
so that would be three billion US dollars yep worth
of pennies. That'd be very heavy, Yes, yes, it would.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Do you know what they made of no zinc and copper?
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Well, I was gonna say copper, like they lose I'm
going to get it wrong. I think it's like eighty
million a year making them, so the really yeah, like
minting them they go. So I would imagine zinc and
copper probably worth quite a bit more than what they
used to be I mean there's a big issue for retailers.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Oh you mean they lose the value because of the
value of the materials going into I thought you meant
they physically lost them.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Okay, right, No, no, no, no, no, down the back of
the couch, that kind of thing possible as well as possible. No,
the minting of them is a loss making operation. A
lot of discussion. We had this in Australia many years ago.
I can vaguely remember when we.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
Dropped the one on two cent coin.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
Yeah, so what do you get charged if it's you know,
fifty two dollars and fifty three cents, Well, it's actually
fifty five cents. They're having that argument in the US
at the moment. Basically, retailers won Congress to authorize rounding
up prices to override state and local laws that don't
allow it. Did our last time the US discontinued the
currency eighteen sixty seven, when the half cent was discontinued.
(15:48):
I never realized there was a half cent.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
No, that was that was a little bit before before
my time. Nighttime quick pop quiz for you. Yeah, Australian
one and two cent coins. What were the animals on them?
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Wombat. No just a kidnap. No kangaroo khala stop stop.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
The one cent coin was the feather tailed glider right,
and the frill neck lizard on the two cent You
remember that one they do?
Speaker 2 (16:18):
I don't remember it. Anyone that could see us would
be seeing Michael's hands doing the frillings like that.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
Yeah, anyway, we might have to post that video on
I think our Instagram definitely. It's not a LinkedIn thing,
that's not but maybe an Instagram Okay. Up next is
Fear and Greed Q and A. Today you're speaking with
Annie Harrison from U Bank, which is a great support
of the podcast.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
It's a great kind of one a one on what
to think about if you're getting a home line so
many ways. It's for first home buyers or people who
just want to get into the market and haven't done
it for a while, just the really simple things you
have to consider when taking out a homeland And.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
It was great, wasn't she Yeah?
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Fun?
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Yeah, really good chat. It's coming up next in the
Fear and Greed playlist or at Fearangreed dot com. Today
you which is also where the daily newsletter lives. If
you want to sign up headlong to the website or
click on the link in the show notes and you'll
get it in your inbox every morning by six am.
Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It's Friday, the fourteenth
of November twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the
podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x
(17:17):
TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that Wasphear and Greed.
Have a great day.