November 12, 2025 • 37 mins
Labour is facing an extraordinary rift at the top of government. Health Secretary Wes Streeting has strongly denied claims that he is plotting to overthrow Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying that attacks are a sign of a toxic culture at Number 10.
The story erupted after an anonymous briefing suggested Streeting could be preparing a leadership bid - a claim he has strongly rejected. But the row raises bigger questions: how loyal is the Cabinet? Who is really pulling the strings in No 10? And what does this internal drama mean for public trust and the Labour government’s ability to deliver?
In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Labour strategist and commentator, John McTernan, who was Tony Blair's political director, the pollster and director of Merlin Strategy Scarlett McGuire and the author and Guardian columnist Zoe Williams.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
The starter pistol was fired last night #10 declared a
leadership election and basically said coming up and go
if you're hard enough. All they have is their own
thirst for dominance. You end up in this absurd
situation where we're talking asthough Kieran Weirs are two
radically different politicians with radically different visions
of the future. They're.
Not many unpopular politicians have people that will not desert
(00:23):
them because they believe them to be authentic, at least to
some things and some principles.And that is what Kier Starmer is
completely lacking. And it's hard not to conclude
that the Labour Party is completely stuffed.
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
The tracers analogy was just tooeasy.
Wes Streeting claims he's the victim of the worst attack on a
(00:45):
faithful since Joe Marla was banished from the final.
But who were the other players at the table seeking to banish a
Wes Streeting challenge? Senior advisers to Keir Starmer
is all we're getting from the political editors who took the
calls with all eyes wondering ifthe top man, Morgan McSweeney,
had authorised it. Streeting says whoever was
behind the briefings should be sacked and Lucy Powell was right
(01:09):
about the toxic culture in Downing St.
Shabana Mahmoud's team also denythat she's a traitor.
But the manifesto busting budgetis looming.
Labour is facing horrific poll racings.
Its MPs are in despair and NigelFarage is riding high after
months of torment. Is Keir Starmer now at the fire
of truth and facing his end game?
Joining me is the Labour strategist and commentator John
(01:31):
Mcternan. He was Tony Blair's political
director, the pollster Scarlett McGuire and the author and
Guardian columnist Zoe Williams.Thank you all very much for
joining us, John. This is an extra, an ordinary
exercise in shooting yourself inthe foot.
I cannot believe it. This is so destructive and it
comes from #10 So the Prime Minister's got a choice.
(01:53):
He should sack Wes if he's lost confidence in him, or should
stack sack whoever authorised ormade this briefing or both.
And if you don't clean out #10 then I think Wes Treaty would be
advised to resign from the cabinet.
No confidence from the government, the Prime Minister
and actually launch a leadershipbid.
This is only going to be resolvable if there is a
(02:16):
contest, I mean. Did where's Streeting ramp up
the pressure this morning when he said yes they should be
sacked and that there is a toxicculture and Downing St.
Lucy Powell was right all along.I don't believe that any
staffer, however senior they are, should brief against a
cabinet minister. Staffers are always junior to
(02:38):
MPs and ministers and that is a breach of your contract, it's a
breach of your ethics, it's a breach of your loyalty to the
political party you're a member of.
And I think that's the problem here, that once this becomes
open and clear, there's a choice.
And the Prime Minister who does find it hard to make choices has
either either backs his staff orhe backs his cabinet minister.
(02:58):
He's got to choose between the two of them.
And if he doesn't, it doesn't. If he doesn't, the crisis will
carry on. And even if he does, the crisis
is there, it's been revealed. Right.
But is it enough to sack a middle ranking or even senior
advisor when it's Morgan McSweeney who runs Downing St.
He's the chief of staff. He is the architect of this
(03:21):
government. He's often described as the man
who actually chose Keir Starmer rather than the other way
around. Is he the one who needs to go?
Look, what I think what the party needs is it's an honest
debate about the direction. The big dividing line in British
politics at the moment is between people who like to
reform or the Tories who want tocut public services and Labour
(03:44):
who won't, and the Greens who'vegot fanciful ideas about wealth
taxes. This has got to go back to the
politics of it. But while it's about
personalities, either political personalities have a fight and
sort it out, or the briefers aredealt with.
OK, well, that, that's, that's John not, not quite wanting to
call for Morgan Mcsweeney's headby the sound of it.
(04:07):
Zoe, I mean, you have been, you described yourself, I think, as
drifting away from labour over aperiod of time.
I mean with your head in your hands.
I mean, listen, I, I, I really feel like we're, we're sort of
kind of punching in the dark here a little bit.
The fact is that Morgan McSweeney, you said yourself,
(04:30):
did he put Kieran? Did he choose Kier rather than
Kier choosing him? Certainly he was.
Certainly that was the rumour atthe time that Kier became
leader. But there were also rumours at
the time that Kier was only evera placeholder.
They didn't expect to win the 2024 election.
He was going to be the placeholder candidate to get the
left of the party round back, back to the kind of land of
(04:54):
reality. And then he was going to be
replaced by where's anyway. These are all rumours, of
course, but what, what the, the,the point is that when you have
a small group of people operating as though this party
is a plaything and the left is apain that needs to be neutered
or expelled, and they don't havean actual project, all they have
(05:19):
is their own thirst for dominance.
You're you end up in this absurdsituation where we're talking as
though Kieran Weirs are two radically different politicians
with radically different visionsof the future.
They're not. They look exactly the same.
The reason they look exactly thesame is that they both look very
technocratic. They they look like, you know,
(05:39):
robot guys who will just make things work.
People who say, oh, Wes is much more charismatic than Kia have
been in Westminster so much too long.
They don't even understand what words mean anymore.
We're streeting is not charismatic.
Kiss Starmer is not charismatic.Nobody in the country is
thinking, Oh, I can't wait till that absolute charm.
Where's his impost? So we're, we're we're having
(06:03):
this, we're conducting this as though there will be a material
difference between those two leaders.
We're really all we're watching is the kind of implosion of a
senior, a kind of the most senior politicians in the
country not having a plan. Yes.
I mean not having a plan. I mean, is, is, is the constant
(06:24):
refrain, isn't it? And they keep trying to suggest
that they do. But I mean as as somebody, you
know, on the left, does this make you despair?
Do you think this is making Labour supporters despair?
Well, it's funny. It's funny to say that because
as somebody on the left, I despaired ages ago.
I mean, basically Keir Starmer made his bid to become leader as
(06:47):
Corbyn in a suit. That's how he sold himself to
the left of the party. That's why the members voted for
him, W Streeting explicitly saidin a Guardian interview four
years ago. Maybe a little less.
That's how you get round the party.
You faint to the left and then you go right to get the country.
I know pollsters say that's the way to do it and this is just
(07:08):
the kind of political truism, but actually what it's doing is
completely corroding anybodies belief in the party as something
that represents them if they have anything like a progressive
platform. And I'm not talking about
radical left wing left winger here.
I'm not talking about communism.I'm talking about something as
(07:30):
basic as defending refugee rights.
I'm talking about something as basic as not immediately meeting
reform halfway, what with their own manoeuvrings, which they've
done in plain sight without eventhe scantiest attempt to
disguise it is basically say theLabour Party is no longer a home
(07:53):
for people who have left wing views Now.
Now they can read the consequences any which way they
want. And I'm always here for
conversations about, you know, why Kia didn't make more friends
in the parliamentary party. If he was going to start
expelling left wing MPs, why didn't he make more friends with
the centrist MPs? How come W Treating has got such
a March on him? Why, why couldn't he broker some
(08:14):
kind of compromise with Angela? You know, I could, we could do
that conversation forever. But the truth, the truth is if
the if, if Labour kind of occupies that space of the left
while cleaving to no left wing principles, they're leaving.
They're opening up a vacuum thatJohn Mcternan might, might laugh
at the Green Party all he wants,but somebody will fill the
(08:36):
vacuum. Right, well, we'll, we'll come
back to whether John's laughing at the Greens, but let's go to
Scarlet and break this down a little bit.
I mean, first of all, how much trouble is Starmer in and is it
possible to say whether it's a recoverable position?
Yeah, well, so I actually just want to pick up on something Zoe
just said about sort of pollsters saying it's the right
thing to do to, you know, feign one way for the membership and
(08:58):
then govern and completely another.
I mean, I'm, I disagree with anyposter to say that.
And I think actually a lot of Starmer's problems and the
reason why I believe his brand is irrecoverable is because the
public have completely made-up their mind on Keir Starmer.
And the number one problem they have with him is a sense that he
is untrustworthy, that he goes back on what he says and that he
(09:19):
breaks his promises. And actually an awful lot of
that stems from when he was in lead of the opposition and when
he did break a lot of those pledges that he stood to be
leader of the Labour Party on. And that's been his chronic
problem with his brand ever since.
It's why, for example, I think breaking manifesto promises
around the budget is going to bea politically bad thing for Keir
Starmer specifically. Even if he says it is Rachel
(09:40):
Reeves decision, I think it willstill reflect very badly on on
Keir Starmer. But what we see and one of the
reasons why again I say his brand is irrecoverable, is he is
now by far the least popular Prime Minister we've had.
I mean, Liz Truss didn't make itthis far.
And so it's all going to put a slight caveat out there.
Although it was comparable numbers actually, but worse than
Rishi Sunak, worse than Boris Johnson.
(10:03):
And he's only 18 months in afterthis massive majority.
And I think the thing that wouldreally worry me if I was in the
Labour Party about Keir Starmer is that he has no flaw.
So at the moment he is, unless, sorry, even Jeremy Corbyn is
less unpopular than Keir Starmer.
And that's because Jeremy Corbyn, even if you might think
that his views are unpalatable to the public as a whole,
(10:24):
although, you know, we we shouldremember that he got 40% of the
vote in 2017 under very different circumstances.
And in fact basically got the same amount of votes that Keir
Starmer did in 2024 when he led Labour to that crashing defeat
in 2019. But he remains more popular now
than Keir Starmer is. And that's because there are
parts of the public that like what Jeremy Corbyn says, that
(10:45):
believe he is authentic to what he says and will stick with him
no matter what. Boris Johnson had a similar
thing. Many unpopular politicians have
people that will not desert thembecause they believe them to be
authentic, at least to some things and some principles.
And that is what Keir Starmer iscompletely lacking.
And is there any evidence to suggest that anyone else W
Streeting or Shabana Mahmud or anyone plus in the Labour Party
(11:07):
would make any difference? There is no evidence actually.
So I mean it is all Labour figures are pretty unpopular
with the public. The only one that is in net
popularity is Andy Burnham. I would suggest that's because
he's not involved in Westminsterpolitics and I think it's hard
to maintain positive approval ratings at the moment.
As soon as you come into contactwith Southwest one.
The public just really, really do not like politicians.
(11:29):
However, I mean, the only Labourpolitician that's really more
unpopular than Keir Starmer withthe public is Rachel Reeves.
So you could say at least there's room potentially for
someone else to do better. But there is no prints across
the water. When I do focus groups, there's
no one saying, oh, it would be fine if only so you used to
hear, you know, be fine if only Dave, you know, David Miliband
had won the leadership contest or, you know, even up until
reasonably recently, people saying they should bring back
(11:51):
Tony Blair. Or if, you know, doing
conservatives, they say get backBoris Johnson.
There is no one that people are focusing.
It's not W treating. It's not any of the others.
If you look at the members you get a slightly different
picture. Ed Miliband is comfortably the
most popular figure with Labour members, should that come down
to that, and Angela Rayner also remains very popular.
But there is no obvious contender that could turn things
round. But someone might do a better
(12:13):
job. John I mean, it's hard not to
conclude that the Labour Party is completely stuffed.
It's, it's hard not to conclude that the Labour Party needs
change. And the the reason for that is
when the Labour Party campaignedfor change in the last election,
you got a huge vote, a landslide, but it failed to say
(12:34):
clearly and it's failed to act in government clearly to say
change from what change to what.And that's where I think the
possibility of a candidate who comes from outside Westminster.
I said SW one as Scarlett was talking about who does have a
view of how to change, has experience of changing.
Someone like Andy's got 10 yearsof record that he can be judged
(12:55):
against, does have an opportunity.
And I've been in pubs across thecountry with Andy Burnham and
always there's working class people who want selfies with
them. That is a huge step up from any
current Labour cabinet minister.And I think the issue is there's
a debate about purpose, a debateabout change, a debate about
what the meaning of change is. There's a country and, and, and,
(13:16):
and it's right. There's always right.
There's a country out there listening to Zack Polanski,
listening to joining your party,the Corbyn vehicle.
There's a country that wants change and it wants change from
a leftist centre perspective. Labour, and this is what I was
most outraged at, a briefing that says that the Labour Party
should put up and shut up and just do what the bond markets
(13:38):
want. Social Democratic parties manage
markets they don't obey. Them right, But I mean, you
know, so if you think Andy Burnham is the best bets or the
one with the best chance, yeah, the question is when isn't it?
Because, you know, the the sort of the prevailing wisdom is,
well, let's see what happens after the budget.
Let's go into the May elections next year and if it's all the
(13:58):
disaster then we'll change leader.
You haven't got that kind of time, have you?
I mean, no, the the British public will have gone by the
time you get to to May. So, and I think I suspect Zoe
and Scarlett agree with the riskof changing leader, which is the
Tories made a genre of changing leader and did no good for them.
But I think what number 10 have done is rather than being a
(14:20):
question of if it's not become aquestion of when.
And once you start to go well, when is it best to wait till
May? Well that's two years into your
parliamentary term. You've only got 2 years left.
It'd be crazy to try and take over then.
So you then you go, OK, before that, would you want to take on
the defeats? Maybe you shouldn't say that's
my inheritance. I now build on that.
(14:41):
And then you go to the budget, the budget knocking around and
it's in, it's in Scarlet's polling knocking around is the
worry that and I think backbenchLabour MPs must be worried about
this. What what happens if the Green
vote overtakes Labour's? What if there's a more popular
party on the left? Hard for them to get enough
parliament seats to mean anything.
(15:02):
But what if there's I'll surpass.
So what's their moment? It hurt the Tories massively
when reform went over. I think it won't.
So I think. So, so you think, go now, do
you? I, I think, I think the, the
fire that the starter pistol wasfired last night, the breed that
number 10 declared a leadership election and basically said
you're all too scared, You're all too scared to do it.
(15:25):
And The thing is, well, if somebody's saying there should
be an election, maybe take them at their words.
They're going, you know, coming up and go, if you're hard
enough, well, there are quite a few people who are hard enough
out there. They've got the ambition,
they've got the desire and the and you're being kicked around
and, and you've got the Parliamentary Labour Party being
(15:45):
described as feral. That is disrespectful at the
very least. And we've got cabinet to be
briefed against. It's got something's got to
give. And I think and the calculation
of #10 is the party will give for what if the party doesn't
and what if the party shouldn't I?
Mean, Zoe, I mean the, the number 10 argument and Rachel
Reeves's argument in the last week has been if I resigned,
what would happen the next day? You know, the, the cost of
(16:07):
borrowing would go up, the markets would go mad.
The economy would be, would be flawed even more than it is now.
Are you saying just forget aboutthat?
Don't worry about it. If there's no Prince over the
water, if Andy Burnham's the only politician in the country
with a net positive rating and it's at 9%, it's at 9 points,
(16:28):
which is not very high, but it'shigher than everybody else, then
I'm then I think don't rush it because Andy doesn't even have a
seat yet, right? So we have anybody who thinks
that he is the the white knight is going to have to wait until
he has a until an MP is seated for him.
But it I this idea. Should we worry about the bond
(16:51):
market? Well, yeah, I mean, John's right
that, you know, as a competent government knows what to do,
doesn't just flail around at themercy of the bond markets.
But at the same time, if you look like you're in chaos, if
you look like you can't get yourbudget voted through, if, if
nobody looking at your senior team knows who they're even
(17:13):
briefing on behalf of. If no if, if the Prime Minister
doesn't look like he's in charge, then you can wish you
were in charge of the bond. You were the master of the bond
markets, but you won't be. Scarlett isn't isn't the trouble
that, you know, Keir Starmer hada positive racing Once Upon a
time, so who's to say A that he can't recover it and B that Andy
(17:36):
Burnham wouldn't lose his positive rating as soon as he's
actually in power and unable to transform things overnight?
Yeah, I mean to take a before BIthink, can you recover it?
We've never seen a Prime Minister recover from these
sorts of ratings. Boris Johnson got slight bounces
again, having not sunk this low by the way, from things like the
vaccine roll out and also but isn't.
(17:58):
History no help now. I mean, you know, we're in
uncharted waters, so the fact that it hasn't happened before
doesn't really help us, does it?Well, I think it, I think on
this one it does because I thinkit's much harder to recover
positive ratings than it is to lose them.
And what we're seeing is just how difficult it is to fight up
water. Now what again, what I think
those examples tell us to fight upstreamers.
And remember, this is when politicians were still slightly
(18:19):
more trusted than they are now because that has been a
consistent downward trend. But if you look at someone like
Boris Johnson, who's the only one who's managed to have that
balance in recent years, and that was a global pandemic and
an outbreak of a war on the European continent.
Now, maybe if one of those two things or something was to
repeat itself, Keir Starmer could claw something back.
But are the Labour Party really going to sit around hoping for,
(18:40):
you know, a sort of catastrophe on either one of those scales to
happen again? I'm not so sure.
And even still, is Keir Starmer at least, you know, no matter
what you think about Boris Johnson, you can think plenty of
things. I mean, but he was a good
campaigner and he was better at connecting with the public than
Keir Starmer, I think has ever been.
And those, those positive ratings for Keir Starmer were
very interesting. The public like a winner, the
(19:02):
public, but when someone looks like they're about to win an
election, start giving them moreof the benefit of the doubt
because they are actually in some ways relatively optimistic
about that change That can happen.
We've even seen that happen withNigel Farage's ratings.
But isn't Andy Burnham a serial loser?
I mean, what? How can he be suddenly when it
comes to national politics? Well again, This is why I'm
sceptical that any positive ratings from Andy Burnham and to
(19:23):
take your point BI am sceptical that they could maintain contact
with an electorate like this positive ratings.
Now what? What could be different about
someone like Andy Burnham, And again, I don't know, because
what we're seeing is all politicians struggling with this
is that I think someone like Andy Burnham, or at least
someone that came across as authentic and principled, will
probably still have a higher floor, even if that meant they
(19:45):
ended up in deep underwater territory.
Because at the moment we're ceding that basically all
politicians that become well known become deeply unpopular.
They might have a high, you know, a lower place to fall
because they could have a safetynet of voters that liked them no
matter what. And that is precisely what Keir
Starmer is lacking. I mean, I'm, I'm sort of
surprised that there is so much agreement between the three of
(20:07):
you, to be honest. But I mean, John, I mean, isn't,
isn't the problem that if you're, if you argue, well, Andy
Burnham is the one who's sort ofvaguely net positive, so.
Let's go in that direction, Brandon would be.
Well, you know what I mean. In terms of John's argument of
sort of, well, he, he's, he's the only one who isn't looking
like a loser politically. He takes Labour to the soft
(20:29):
left. That is not where the country
was at the election. So.
You know, so, So what? What is the implication of
moving the government to the left in terms of Labour's
ability to survive? That look, that's that, that's a
really good way of putting it and a good way of thinking about
it. Andy Burnham did lose 2
leadership elections. Andy Burnham won every single
(20:51):
constituency in Greater Manchester last time he stood to
be the mayor. That's a huge achievement given
the the the diversity of voters who who are in Greater
Manchester. And what is the answer to the
question, is he soft left? Yes he is, but so are the most
popular policies of the Labour government at the moment.
The the minimum wage is 2/3 of average earnings.
(21:12):
Railway nationalization, like Great British Energy being set
up, Great British nuclear workers rights, renter's rights,
all the most popular things the government's doing, which the
government won't talk about a soft left.
And then look, look at where Nigel Farage is.
Nigel Farage wants to lift the two child benefit gap which
Rachel's been against, which Kier's been against, which
Andy's been in favour of lifting.
(21:34):
Nigel Farage wants to nationalize British Steel.
Nigel Farage is cosplaying a soft left Social Democratic
Party. People obsess about reform being
he's listening to where working people are, where the red wall
is and actually a Labour government which was more open
about, yeah, we're, we are soft left.
To be honest, we are doing thesethings which are soft left.
They're popular. Not only they're popular,
(21:56):
they're right. And somebody who had more
swagger about them, more confidence in it would actually,
I think the compelling thing is you put somebody who believes in
being soft left in a country that actually quite likes being
soft left economically. You know how many people in
Britain, I've been to loads of meetings, public and private and
business. My view is the Labour government
should nationalize Thames Water because they're a disgrace.
(22:18):
This government won't do that because I think nationalization
is lefty. It's popular and it's popular
and I think it's this new politics.
People believe in politicians with values and with records and
the record. This government is mixed, but
it's embarrassed about the good things it's done.
Andy Burnham and other people inthe soft left, Angela Rain,
(22:38):
those candidates would not be embarrassed.
And the final thing is Andy, like Anna Sarwar, like Sadiq
Khan was really quick to say ceasefire in Gaza.
And I think that's got massive residence in a country where 8
out of 10 people want to ceasefire for such a long time.
And the Labour government's was seen to be against that for
whatever it was doing and sayingLabour's identified as being
(23:01):
against. So I think those there are big
issues out there which can be shaped, but you need a a new
politics and a new way of doing a new economics.
I want to identify the problem both of each of you are making,
John. You're making the problem that
people respond to shopping list policies and they and they and
they therefore look at reform and go, oh, reform is a bit like
(23:22):
Andy Burnham. How come I support Nigel Farage
when I don't support this or if I support Nigel Farage in
nationalising this, then I wouldsupport Andy Burnham.
People don't vote on shopping list policies, they vote on
their vibes. And Nigel Farage is giving off
hard right racist vibes. And Andy Burnham is giving off
the guy who has been actually kind of radicalised by the blood
(23:43):
scandal. Obviously Nigel Farage would
deny being racist or or even hard right and he's not here to
defend himself, so we've got to be careful about labels we throw
around. Fine, fine.
And Christian, you're acting as though there's these fixed
points of of soft left. What's soft left?
What's hard left? What's centrist?
(24:04):
What's right wing? I just mean to the left of where
the government was. I know, but did like, you know,
did the the actual Labour government we're looking at
doesn't look like even a centrist left, a centre left
that I would recognise 10, let alone 20 years ago.
The Tory party does not look anything like a centre right.
Nigel Farage you say? He would be really upset at
(24:26):
being called a racist. Reform has deportation policies
that you would have found on theFlyers of the British National
Party, the BNP. So we're not talking about an
we're not when we use these terms like soft left, hard left,
when we, we just got to be a little bit more forensic.
I think about what we're talkingabout because we're we're really
(24:49):
moving our discussion to the right all.
The time, but isn't the point that you're both making that
that actually on on on on economics and on workers rights
and all the rest of it, Britain and welfare.
Britain might be movable to the left, but on immigration you're
all moving to the right. Well, I just think what John was
saying is absolutely right. However, I did find that you
(25:13):
it's easy when talking about these things to talk about soft
left policies that appeal to people.
Please speak country is quite economically left wing and
that's been the case for a while.
And there is certainly mass appeal to things like
nationalising utilities and, and, and, and although actually
the pen, the benefit gap doesn'tpoll the removing it doesn't
pull that well. But it is difficult to emit the
(25:36):
issue of immigration. It is now the number one or
sometimes #2 but it's a dominantconcern for voters, including a
sizeable chunk of Labour voters.And actually, even if, you know,
Zoe mentioned obviously deportation policies, now it
could be, you know, it's potentially a bit squeamish to
talk about, but even a majority of Labour voters back deporting
people who are in the country illegally.
(25:56):
Now, none of this is to say thatthere isn't a leader that could
be able to try and thread that needle, but it is there to be
threaded. And I think part of the problem
is even there was a poll out yesterday actually showed even a
plurality of Green voters back deporting migrants that are here
illegally. And so I think the issue is
going to be that I think you canhave a leader that is going to
appeal to soft left and can be, you know, I think speak much
(26:19):
more authentically and indeed patriotically about standing up
to forces they disagree with like things like reform.
However, I think you actually it's going to be very difficult
to get the public into a place where they are not still
demanding reductions in illegal and legal migration and I think
that is a difficult issue for the next Labour leader, whoever.
(26:39):
They are, John. I mean, you know, lots of people
in the Labour Party think it needs to be much tougher on
immigration. It's likely to get much tougher
on asylum seekers on Monday. You know, is it ever going to be
authentically believed by the electorates that a Labour
government can be, you know, economically progressive and and
(27:01):
truly tough on immigration? So look the the issue for a
Labour government on the economyand on migration and on law and
order is to be considered competent, to be considered in
control. You will not vote Labour if you
want the harshest of restrictions on immigration.
You won't vote Labour if you want the harsh conditions of
(27:23):
prisons, the longest sentences. But Labour has to acknowledge
the country wants security, border security, it wants
security on the streets. And Labour got to realise the
public are always sceptical about it.
The thing that we are is in the politics of flux, a politics in
which there are local and globalchanges.
There is migration, there's alsoclimate crisis, there is
(27:43):
inflation, cost of living, but there's also AI, there's China,
there's a war in Europe, there'sTrump's tariffs.
There are so many big issues. And it it leaves a space for the
political entrepreneurs. And where I think that what
Farage has done is to be able tomove in to secure a block of 30%
of the vote that wouldn't be a dominant block in any other
(28:05):
time. In politics.
There's five viable political parties and Labour are one of
those other four parties, aroundbetween fifteen, 2025%.
Labour's got to find a way to articulate a future vision, one
that Farage can't do. Labour's more authentic around
managing the markets around intervening, around being left
economically. Farage is currently more
(28:26):
authentic or trusted on. He'll get the job done.
He's hard headed. Labour is in government, it's
got to prove it's got the competence plus the humanity
because people also do want people.
People believe people who shouldn't be here.
You, you apply for asylum, you don't get asylum, you need to be
removed as a working system. They do also believe this
(28:46):
country, this great country of ours does have a responsibility
to refugees. We have to share the burden, but
we have to take some of the burden itself.
And it's finding the way to tellthat story of bringing the
elements together. And I think my, my, my biggest
question mark over the way the government's run itself for the
last 18 months is it's always about process, never about
purpose. It's always about individual
(29:07):
technical, technocratic solutions.
It's never about this is big a big problem requires a big idea.
It requires a big effort. It requires us all coming
together. And I think it's you have to
change the shape, the nature of progressive politics.
And that is why whoever rises the challenge which has been
issued by #10 has got to have a new political economy, a new a
(29:30):
new way of doing politics, a newway of running economy, a new
way of Britain being in the world.
Zoe, that's a big demand do. Do you think the left, whether
it's your party or the Greens, can actually win the argument on
immigration? Well, OK, I totally do, and I'll
tell you how we go about winningthe argument on immigration.
First of all, the reason pollingnumbers are the way they are is
(29:50):
because it's all anybody talks about.
The media and the politicians are in some kind of dance of
death where they won't talk about anything except
immigration, and they try and kind of game each other to more
and more extreme positions. All three of you are talking as
though deportations are only suggested for people who are
here illegally. That's always been true, that
people who get refused asylum get deported.
(30:12):
Nobody's never disagreed with that.
But we're talking about, you know, reform has ideas about,
about leave, to remain, about not having.
People who are here. Legally, yeah, but yeah, if when
you're here legally the Tories have ideas about not get about
being deported if you've ever claimed a benefit.
We're talking about an absolutely febrile environment
in which obviously then when people are asked what the
(30:33):
biggest issues are, they always say immigration because that's
all that the authority ever, ever discussed.
However, when you ask people what the most important thing to
them is, is always cost of living, NHS, sometimes a little
bit of social care if they're inthe older brackets, sometimes a
little bit of crime, especially among women, it's not.
People aren't saying this issue is salient to them, they're
(30:56):
responding to the political climate.
Consequently, every time we say how is the left ever going to
have a viable policy around immigration when the public
public's attitudes are really, really hardening, you're just
this is a self fulfilling fallacy and it and and it's
really dispiriting to watch. Now, I don't know whether I
(31:17):
don't know what the greens ultimate landing point on
immigration is going to be. I don't know how much the late
Labour is going to surrender to the reform agenda.
Although I think to borrow Scarlett's Braves, they haven't
got a floor morally, they'll go anywhere chasing that kind of
energy. But I do know that it at some
point there will be there will cut there.
(31:38):
There is a hardcore of people inBritain who say, look, the
numbers, migration, migrating, fleeing war are no higher than
they've ever been throughout history.
It's about 3%, right? So anything else we can manage.
And whether or not these, you know, Nigel Farage shows what
happens when you try and build aproject not by amalgamating 25
(32:02):
views, but by going hard for your core.
The person who goes hard for thecore that will not not talk
about people as burdens, that will not talk about people as
illegals, the people who go hardfor that core are going to win
something. Just finally, I mean, Scarlett,
if you, I mean you've made it clear you think it's, it's
irrecoverable for Keir Starmer. The question is, is it
(32:23):
recoverable at all for Labour, you know, before the next
election, if Labour, how you know what, what are the things
Labour needs to hit? You know, is it they, they kind
of assume it's the health service and immigration.
Are they right in that? Look, it's a very difficult and
narrow path for Labour, I think,but I think it's a path that
(32:43):
still plausibly exists. What should they do?
I think John is right when he says they need to show
competence on issues whilst potentially not focusing on
them, right? So like with immigration, I do
think they're going to need to deliver the sorts of things that
are looking for. I slightly disagree with Zoe.
I don't think it's just because people are talking about it.
(33:04):
Obviously giving things more media oxygen, we'll see an
impact on how much people think about it.
But actually, if you look about the concern for immigration, it
was when it started spiking whenimmigrants were starting to be
put up in asylum hotels. And I did notice from focus
groups at the time that people who said previously they didn't
think much about that issue feltvery differently when they had a
(33:24):
hotel in their area. So I also do think it is to a
certain extent what people are seeing or hearing in their local
communities as well as what whatthey might be ingesting on the
news. But putting that to a side, I
think Labour, I mean look what Labour should have done when
they got in last time in the 2024 election was to SAT
straight away, no summer recess,have Parliament working everyday
to show they were delivering on the nation's priorities and go
(33:47):
hell for leather on the NHS because that is something that
they have in their favour. People do not trust the
Conservatives on the NHS. People do not trust reform on
the NHS. Lots of voters are worried that
Nigel Farage might privatize thehealth service.
That is something consistently that I hear in my focus groups,
and you can see this in the dataas well.
It should be a card Labor can play.
It is one in which they are already making progress, albeit
(34:09):
slow progress. And that seems to me a very good
opportunity to keep going and show actual progress.
Obviously it's a difficult task,but that's what I would do.
And for what it's worth, you know, I mean been this podcast
has been fairly critical of Wes Streeting so far.
But I did think during Labour conference I was listening to
Wes Streeting on a media round and he was asked to talk about
(34:29):
the reform indefinite leave to remain policy, much as Kier
Starmer had. And I thought Wes Streeting's
reply was naturally one that would carry a lot more weight
and be more persuasive with the public.
He straight away framed it as anissue to do with the NHS and to
do with NHS workers and about treating them fairly and not
crippling the NHS. And he did it in a way that
(34:50):
seemed authentic to him, and I just thought that was a much
better way of taking on reform. Zoe I mean, it's a lost cause
for you, isn't? It look, this kind of politics
is a lost cause for me. Yeah.
I mean, the, the party, the, theparty hasn't, the party has kind
of peeled away from its from itsown values without really
(35:11):
replacing them with anything obvious.
You know, people like me or evenme made a lot when Tony Blair
came in. But at least they had a project.
At least they would tell you what it was.
At least they would fight you about it, right?
They would air arguments to you and and argue them
intellectually because they had meaning.
(35:34):
I just did this this lot. They they they can't bring their
arguments because they don't have arguments.
John. Look, I think Labour has a case
to make. It's got a progressive case to
make and the the the government stumbles when it doesn't have a
case. It had no case about cutting to
simply benefits. It couldn't answer the question,
had no case to make about cutting winter fuel payments.
(35:56):
Now we have a situation where #10 have have decided they want
to provoke a leadership contest.I don't think a leisure contest
is a great idea or a solution initself.
I do think a contest of ideas would be a good thing because
there's a lot of ferment on the progressive side of politics and
there's a lot of demands on across all of politics.
(36:18):
And I don't think that people are settling to be, let's be a
right wing country. Look at how badly the Tories are
doing. They do want disruption, they do
want change. They've voted for change in so
many ways in the last decade, whether for Brexit, for Corbyn,
for for Starmer, for Johnson. Labour had to be able to say
this is the change that we need as a country, this is how we
(36:40):
will deliver it. We may need new faces and new
voices to go with new ideas and new policies, but we also need
to accept we did lose our way the last 18 months.
I could defend the record because there's many great
things, but there's something gone wrong and I think
Scarlett's got it. Scarlett hears it in in our
focus groups, we lose Scarlett'sfocus groups, you lose Zoe
(37:03):
Williams. What is a Labour government
doing that can't keep working people and can't keep Zoe
Williams in broad support And what's, what is this government,
Labour government doing? What's Keir Starmer doing when
he makes Zoe make the case for Tony Blair?
On on that note, thank you all very much indeed.
That's the forecast. Until next time, bye bye.
The starter pistol was fired last night #10 declared a
leadership election and basically said coming up and go
if you're hard enough. All they have is their own
thirst for dominance. You end up in this absurd
situation where we're talking asthough Kieran Weirs are two
radically different politicians with radically different visions
of the future. They're.
Not many unpopular politicians have people that will not desert
(00:23):
them because they believe them to be authentic, at least to
some things and some principles.And that is what Kier Starmer is
completely lacking. And it's hard not to conclude
that the Labour Party is completely stuffed.
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
The tracers analogy was just tooeasy.
Wes Streeting claims he's the victim of the worst attack on a
(00:45):
faithful since Joe Marla was banished from the final.
But who were the other players at the table seeking to banish a
Wes Streeting challenge? Senior advisers to Keir Starmer
is all we're getting from the political editors who took the
calls with all eyes wondering ifthe top man, Morgan McSweeney,
had authorised it. Streeting says whoever was
behind the briefings should be sacked and Lucy Powell was right
(01:09):
about the toxic culture in Downing St.
Shabana Mahmoud's team also denythat she's a traitor.
But the manifesto busting budgetis looming.
Labour is facing horrific poll racings.
Its MPs are in despair and NigelFarage is riding high after
months of torment. Is Keir Starmer now at the fire
of truth and facing his end game?
Joining me is the Labour strategist and commentator John
(01:31):
Mcternan. He was Tony Blair's political
director, the pollster Scarlett McGuire and the author and
Guardian columnist Zoe Williams.Thank you all very much for
joining us, John. This is an extra, an ordinary
exercise in shooting yourself inthe foot.
I cannot believe it. This is so destructive and it
comes from #10 So the Prime Minister's got a choice.
(01:53):
He should sack Wes if he's lost confidence in him, or should
stack sack whoever authorised ormade this briefing or both.
And if you don't clean out #10 then I think Wes Treaty would be
advised to resign from the cabinet.
No confidence from the government, the Prime Minister
and actually launch a leadershipbid.
This is only going to be resolvable if there is a
(02:16):
contest, I mean. Did where's Streeting ramp up
the pressure this morning when he said yes they should be
sacked and that there is a toxicculture and Downing St.
Lucy Powell was right all along.I don't believe that any
staffer, however senior they are, should brief against a
cabinet minister. Staffers are always junior to
(02:38):
MPs and ministers and that is a breach of your contract, it's a
breach of your ethics, it's a breach of your loyalty to the
political party you're a member of.
And I think that's the problem here, that once this becomes
open and clear, there's a choice.
And the Prime Minister who does find it hard to make choices has
either either backs his staff orhe backs his cabinet minister.
(02:58):
He's got to choose between the two of them.
And if he doesn't, it doesn't. If he doesn't, the crisis will
carry on. And even if he does, the crisis
is there, it's been revealed. Right.
But is it enough to sack a middle ranking or even senior
advisor when it's Morgan McSweeney who runs Downing St.
He's the chief of staff. He is the architect of this
(03:21):
government. He's often described as the man
who actually chose Keir Starmer rather than the other way
around. Is he the one who needs to go?
Look, what I think what the party needs is it's an honest
debate about the direction. The big dividing line in British
politics at the moment is between people who like to
reform or the Tories who want tocut public services and Labour
(03:44):
who won't, and the Greens who'vegot fanciful ideas about wealth
taxes. This has got to go back to the
politics of it. But while it's about
personalities, either political personalities have a fight and
sort it out, or the briefers aredealt with.
OK, well, that, that's, that's John not, not quite wanting to
call for Morgan Mcsweeney's headby the sound of it.
(04:07):
Zoe, I mean, you have been, you described yourself, I think, as
drifting away from labour over aperiod of time.
I mean with your head in your hands.
I mean, listen, I, I, I really feel like we're, we're sort of
kind of punching in the dark here a little bit.
The fact is that Morgan McSweeney, you said yourself,
(04:30):
did he put Kieran? Did he choose Kier rather than
Kier choosing him? Certainly he was.
Certainly that was the rumour atthe time that Kier became
leader. But there were also rumours at
the time that Kier was only evera placeholder.
They didn't expect to win the 2024 election.
He was going to be the placeholder candidate to get the
left of the party round back, back to the kind of land of
(04:54):
reality. And then he was going to be
replaced by where's anyway. These are all rumours, of
course, but what, what the, the,the point is that when you have
a small group of people operating as though this party
is a plaything and the left is apain that needs to be neutered
or expelled, and they don't havean actual project, all they have
(05:19):
is their own thirst for dominance.
You're you end up in this absurdsituation where we're talking as
though Kieran Weirs are two radically different politicians
with radically different visionsof the future.
They're not. They look exactly the same.
The reason they look exactly thesame is that they both look very
technocratic. They they look like, you know,
(05:39):
robot guys who will just make things work.
People who say, oh, Wes is much more charismatic than Kia have
been in Westminster so much too long.
They don't even understand what words mean anymore.
We're streeting is not charismatic.
Kiss Starmer is not charismatic.Nobody in the country is
thinking, Oh, I can't wait till that absolute charm.
Where's his impost? So we're, we're we're having
(06:03):
this, we're conducting this as though there will be a material
difference between those two leaders.
We're really all we're watching is the kind of implosion of a
senior, a kind of the most senior politicians in the
country not having a plan. Yes.
I mean not having a plan. I mean, is, is, is the constant
(06:24):
refrain, isn't it? And they keep trying to suggest
that they do. But I mean as as somebody, you
know, on the left, does this make you despair?
Do you think this is making Labour supporters despair?
Well, it's funny. It's funny to say that because
as somebody on the left, I despaired ages ago.
I mean, basically Keir Starmer made his bid to become leader as
(06:47):
Corbyn in a suit. That's how he sold himself to
the left of the party. That's why the members voted for
him, W Streeting explicitly saidin a Guardian interview four
years ago. Maybe a little less.
That's how you get round the party.
You faint to the left and then you go right to get the country.
I know pollsters say that's the way to do it and this is just
(07:08):
the kind of political truism, but actually what it's doing is
completely corroding anybodies belief in the party as something
that represents them if they have anything like a progressive
platform. And I'm not talking about
radical left wing left winger here.
I'm not talking about communism.I'm talking about something as
(07:30):
basic as defending refugee rights.
I'm talking about something as basic as not immediately meeting
reform halfway, what with their own manoeuvrings, which they've
done in plain sight without eventhe scantiest attempt to
disguise it is basically say theLabour Party is no longer a home
(07:53):
for people who have left wing views Now.
Now they can read the consequences any which way they
want. And I'm always here for
conversations about, you know, why Kia didn't make more friends
in the parliamentary party. If he was going to start
expelling left wing MPs, why didn't he make more friends with
the centrist MPs? How come W Treating has got such
a March on him? Why, why couldn't he broker some
(08:14):
kind of compromise with Angela? You know, I could, we could do
that conversation forever. But the truth, the truth is if
the if, if Labour kind of occupies that space of the left
while cleaving to no left wing principles, they're leaving.
They're opening up a vacuum thatJohn Mcternan might, might laugh
at the Green Party all he wants,but somebody will fill the
(08:36):
vacuum. Right, well, we'll, we'll come
back to whether John's laughing at the Greens, but let's go to
Scarlet and break this down a little bit.
I mean, first of all, how much trouble is Starmer in and is it
possible to say whether it's a recoverable position?
Yeah, well, so I actually just want to pick up on something Zoe
just said about sort of pollsters saying it's the right
thing to do to, you know, feign one way for the membership and
(08:58):
then govern and completely another.
I mean, I'm, I disagree with anyposter to say that.
And I think actually a lot of Starmer's problems and the
reason why I believe his brand is irrecoverable is because the
public have completely made-up their mind on Keir Starmer.
And the number one problem they have with him is a sense that he
is untrustworthy, that he goes back on what he says and that he
(09:19):
breaks his promises. And actually an awful lot of
that stems from when he was in lead of the opposition and when
he did break a lot of those pledges that he stood to be
leader of the Labour Party on. And that's been his chronic
problem with his brand ever since.
It's why, for example, I think breaking manifesto promises
around the budget is going to bea politically bad thing for Keir
Starmer specifically. Even if he says it is Rachel
(09:40):
Reeves decision, I think it willstill reflect very badly on on
Keir Starmer. But what we see and one of the
reasons why again I say his brand is irrecoverable, is he is
now by far the least popular Prime Minister we've had.
I mean, Liz Truss didn't make itthis far.
And so it's all going to put a slight caveat out there.
Although it was comparable numbers actually, but worse than
Rishi Sunak, worse than Boris Johnson.
(10:03):
And he's only 18 months in afterthis massive majority.
And I think the thing that wouldreally worry me if I was in the
Labour Party about Keir Starmer is that he has no flaw.
So at the moment he is, unless, sorry, even Jeremy Corbyn is
less unpopular than Keir Starmer.
And that's because Jeremy Corbyn, even if you might think
that his views are unpalatable to the public as a whole,
(10:24):
although, you know, we we shouldremember that he got 40% of the
vote in 2017 under very different circumstances.
And in fact basically got the same amount of votes that Keir
Starmer did in 2024 when he led Labour to that crashing defeat
in 2019. But he remains more popular now
than Keir Starmer is. And that's because there are
parts of the public that like what Jeremy Corbyn says, that
(10:45):
believe he is authentic to what he says and will stick with him
no matter what. Boris Johnson had a similar
thing. Many unpopular politicians have
people that will not desert thembecause they believe them to be
authentic, at least to some things and some principles.
And that is what Keir Starmer iscompletely lacking.
And is there any evidence to suggest that anyone else W
Streeting or Shabana Mahmud or anyone plus in the Labour Party
(11:07):
would make any difference? There is no evidence actually.
So I mean it is all Labour figures are pretty unpopular
with the public. The only one that is in net
popularity is Andy Burnham. I would suggest that's because
he's not involved in Westminsterpolitics and I think it's hard
to maintain positive approval ratings at the moment.
As soon as you come into contactwith Southwest one.
The public just really, really do not like politicians.
(11:29):
However, I mean, the only Labourpolitician that's really more
unpopular than Keir Starmer withthe public is Rachel Reeves.
So you could say at least there's room potentially for
someone else to do better. But there is no prints across
the water. When I do focus groups, there's
no one saying, oh, it would be fine if only so you used to
hear, you know, be fine if only Dave, you know, David Miliband
had won the leadership contest or, you know, even up until
reasonably recently, people saying they should bring back
(11:51):
Tony Blair. Or if, you know, doing
conservatives, they say get backBoris Johnson.
There is no one that people are focusing.
It's not W treating. It's not any of the others.
If you look at the members you get a slightly different
picture. Ed Miliband is comfortably the
most popular figure with Labour members, should that come down
to that, and Angela Rayner also remains very popular.
But there is no obvious contender that could turn things
round. But someone might do a better
(12:13):
job. John I mean, it's hard not to
conclude that the Labour Party is completely stuffed.
It's, it's hard not to conclude that the Labour Party needs
change. And the the reason for that is
when the Labour Party campaignedfor change in the last election,
you got a huge vote, a landslide, but it failed to say
(12:34):
clearly and it's failed to act in government clearly to say
change from what change to what.And that's where I think the
possibility of a candidate who comes from outside Westminster.
I said SW one as Scarlett was talking about who does have a
view of how to change, has experience of changing.
Someone like Andy's got 10 yearsof record that he can be judged
(12:55):
against, does have an opportunity.
And I've been in pubs across thecountry with Andy Burnham and
always there's working class people who want selfies with
them. That is a huge step up from any
current Labour cabinet minister.And I think the issue is there's
a debate about purpose, a debateabout change, a debate about
what the meaning of change is. There's a country and, and, and,
(13:16):
and it's right. There's always right.
There's a country out there listening to Zack Polanski,
listening to joining your party,the Corbyn vehicle.
There's a country that wants change and it wants change from
a leftist centre perspective. Labour, and this is what I was
most outraged at, a briefing that says that the Labour Party
should put up and shut up and just do what the bond markets
(13:38):
want. Social Democratic parties manage
markets they don't obey. Them right, But I mean, you
know, so if you think Andy Burnham is the best bets or the
one with the best chance, yeah, the question is when isn't it?
Because, you know, the the sort of the prevailing wisdom is,
well, let's see what happens after the budget.
Let's go into the May elections next year and if it's all the
(13:58):
disaster then we'll change leader.
You haven't got that kind of time, have you?
I mean, no, the the British public will have gone by the
time you get to to May. So, and I think I suspect Zoe
and Scarlett agree with the riskof changing leader, which is the
Tories made a genre of changing leader and did no good for them.
But I think what number 10 have done is rather than being a
(14:20):
question of if it's not become aquestion of when.
And once you start to go well, when is it best to wait till
May? Well that's two years into your
parliamentary term. You've only got 2 years left.
It'd be crazy to try and take over then.
So you then you go, OK, before that, would you want to take on
the defeats? Maybe you shouldn't say that's
my inheritance. I now build on that.
(14:41):
And then you go to the budget, the budget knocking around and
it's in, it's in Scarlet's polling knocking around is the
worry that and I think backbenchLabour MPs must be worried about
this. What what happens if the Green
vote overtakes Labour's? What if there's a more popular
party on the left? Hard for them to get enough
parliament seats to mean anything.
(15:02):
But what if there's I'll surpass.
So what's their moment? It hurt the Tories massively
when reform went over. I think it won't.
So I think. So, so you think, go now, do
you? I, I think, I think the, the
fire that the starter pistol wasfired last night, the breed that
number 10 declared a leadership election and basically said
you're all too scared, You're all too scared to do it.
(15:25):
And The thing is, well, if somebody's saying there should
be an election, maybe take them at their words.
They're going, you know, coming up and go, if you're hard
enough, well, there are quite a few people who are hard enough
out there. They've got the ambition,
they've got the desire and the and you're being kicked around
and, and you've got the Parliamentary Labour Party being
(15:45):
described as feral. That is disrespectful at the
very least. And we've got cabinet to be
briefed against. It's got something's got to
give. And I think and the calculation
of #10 is the party will give for what if the party doesn't
and what if the party shouldn't I?
Mean, Zoe, I mean the, the number 10 argument and Rachel
Reeves's argument in the last week has been if I resigned,
what would happen the next day? You know, the, the cost of
(16:07):
borrowing would go up, the markets would go mad.
The economy would be, would be flawed even more than it is now.
Are you saying just forget aboutthat?
Don't worry about it. If there's no Prince over the
water, if Andy Burnham's the only politician in the country
with a net positive rating and it's at 9%, it's at 9 points,
(16:28):
which is not very high, but it'shigher than everybody else, then
I'm then I think don't rush it because Andy doesn't even have a
seat yet, right? So we have anybody who thinks
that he is the the white knight is going to have to wait until
he has a until an MP is seated for him.
But it I this idea. Should we worry about the bond
(16:51):
market? Well, yeah, I mean, John's right
that, you know, as a competent government knows what to do,
doesn't just flail around at themercy of the bond markets.
But at the same time, if you look like you're in chaos, if
you look like you can't get yourbudget voted through, if, if
nobody looking at your senior team knows who they're even
(17:13):
briefing on behalf of. If no if, if the Prime Minister
doesn't look like he's in charge, then you can wish you
were in charge of the bond. You were the master of the bond
markets, but you won't be. Scarlett isn't isn't the trouble
that, you know, Keir Starmer hada positive racing Once Upon a
time, so who's to say A that he can't recover it and B that Andy
(17:36):
Burnham wouldn't lose his positive rating as soon as he's
actually in power and unable to transform things overnight?
Yeah, I mean to take a before BIthink, can you recover it?
We've never seen a Prime Minister recover from these
sorts of ratings. Boris Johnson got slight bounces
again, having not sunk this low by the way, from things like the
vaccine roll out and also but isn't.
(17:58):
History no help now. I mean, you know, we're in
uncharted waters, so the fact that it hasn't happened before
doesn't really help us, does it?Well, I think it, I think on
this one it does because I thinkit's much harder to recover
positive ratings than it is to lose them.
And what we're seeing is just how difficult it is to fight up
water. Now what again, what I think
those examples tell us to fight upstreamers.
And remember, this is when politicians were still slightly
(18:19):
more trusted than they are now because that has been a
consistent downward trend. But if you look at someone like
Boris Johnson, who's the only one who's managed to have that
balance in recent years, and that was a global pandemic and
an outbreak of a war on the European continent.
Now, maybe if one of those two things or something was to
repeat itself, Keir Starmer could claw something back.
But are the Labour Party really going to sit around hoping for,
(18:40):
you know, a sort of catastrophe on either one of those scales to
happen again? I'm not so sure.
And even still, is Keir Starmer at least, you know, no matter
what you think about Boris Johnson, you can think plenty of
things. I mean, but he was a good
campaigner and he was better at connecting with the public than
Keir Starmer, I think has ever been.
And those, those positive ratings for Keir Starmer were
very interesting. The public like a winner, the
(19:02):
public, but when someone looks like they're about to win an
election, start giving them moreof the benefit of the doubt
because they are actually in some ways relatively optimistic
about that change That can happen.
We've even seen that happen withNigel Farage's ratings.
But isn't Andy Burnham a serial loser?
I mean, what? How can he be suddenly when it
comes to national politics? Well again, This is why I'm
sceptical that any positive ratings from Andy Burnham and to
(19:23):
take your point BI am sceptical that they could maintain contact
with an electorate like this positive ratings.
Now what? What could be different about
someone like Andy Burnham, And again, I don't know, because
what we're seeing is all politicians struggling with this
is that I think someone like Andy Burnham, or at least
someone that came across as authentic and principled, will
probably still have a higher floor, even if that meant they
(19:45):
ended up in deep underwater territory.
Because at the moment we're ceding that basically all
politicians that become well known become deeply unpopular.
They might have a high, you know, a lower place to fall
because they could have a safetynet of voters that liked them no
matter what. And that is precisely what Keir
Starmer is lacking. I mean, I'm, I'm sort of
surprised that there is so much agreement between the three of
(20:07):
you, to be honest. But I mean, John, I mean, isn't,
isn't the problem that if you're, if you argue, well, Andy
Burnham is the one who's sort ofvaguely net positive, so.
Let's go in that direction, Brandon would be.
Well, you know what I mean. In terms of John's argument of
sort of, well, he, he's, he's the only one who isn't looking
like a loser politically. He takes Labour to the soft
(20:29):
left. That is not where the country
was at the election. So.
You know, so, So what? What is the implication of
moving the government to the left in terms of Labour's
ability to survive? That look, that's that, that's a
really good way of putting it and a good way of thinking about
it. Andy Burnham did lose 2
leadership elections. Andy Burnham won every single
(20:51):
constituency in Greater Manchester last time he stood to
be the mayor. That's a huge achievement given
the the the diversity of voters who who are in Greater
Manchester. And what is the answer to the
question, is he soft left? Yes he is, but so are the most
popular policies of the Labour government at the moment.
The the minimum wage is 2/3 of average earnings.
(21:12):
Railway nationalization, like Great British Energy being set
up, Great British nuclear workers rights, renter's rights,
all the most popular things the government's doing, which the
government won't talk about a soft left.
And then look, look at where Nigel Farage is.
Nigel Farage wants to lift the two child benefit gap which
Rachel's been against, which Kier's been against, which
Andy's been in favour of lifting.
(21:34):
Nigel Farage wants to nationalize British Steel.
Nigel Farage is cosplaying a soft left Social Democratic
Party. People obsess about reform being
he's listening to where working people are, where the red wall
is and actually a Labour government which was more open
about, yeah, we're, we are soft left.
To be honest, we are doing thesethings which are soft left.
They're popular. Not only they're popular,
(21:56):
they're right. And somebody who had more
swagger about them, more confidence in it would actually,
I think the compelling thing is you put somebody who believes in
being soft left in a country that actually quite likes being
soft left economically. You know how many people in
Britain, I've been to loads of meetings, public and private and
business. My view is the Labour government
should nationalize Thames Water because they're a disgrace.
(22:18):
This government won't do that because I think nationalization
is lefty. It's popular and it's popular
and I think it's this new politics.
People believe in politicians with values and with records and
the record. This government is mixed, but
it's embarrassed about the good things it's done.
Andy Burnham and other people inthe soft left, Angela Rain,
(22:38):
those candidates would not be embarrassed.
And the final thing is Andy, like Anna Sarwar, like Sadiq
Khan was really quick to say ceasefire in Gaza.
And I think that's got massive residence in a country where 8
out of 10 people want to ceasefire for such a long time.
And the Labour government's was seen to be against that for
whatever it was doing and sayingLabour's identified as being
(23:01):
against. So I think those there are big
issues out there which can be shaped, but you need a a new
politics and a new way of doing a new economics.
I want to identify the problem both of each of you are making,
John. You're making the problem that
people respond to shopping list policies and they and they and
they therefore look at reform and go, oh, reform is a bit like
(23:22):
Andy Burnham. How come I support Nigel Farage
when I don't support this or if I support Nigel Farage in
nationalising this, then I wouldsupport Andy Burnham.
People don't vote on shopping list policies, they vote on
their vibes. And Nigel Farage is giving off
hard right racist vibes. And Andy Burnham is giving off
the guy who has been actually kind of radicalised by the blood
(23:43):
scandal. Obviously Nigel Farage would
deny being racist or or even hard right and he's not here to
defend himself, so we've got to be careful about labels we throw
around. Fine, fine.
And Christian, you're acting as though there's these fixed
points of of soft left. What's soft left?
What's hard left? What's centrist?
(24:04):
What's right wing? I just mean to the left of where
the government was. I know, but did like, you know,
did the the actual Labour government we're looking at
doesn't look like even a centrist left, a centre left
that I would recognise 10, let alone 20 years ago.
The Tory party does not look anything like a centre right.
Nigel Farage you say? He would be really upset at
(24:26):
being called a racist. Reform has deportation policies
that you would have found on theFlyers of the British National
Party, the BNP. So we're not talking about an
we're not when we use these terms like soft left, hard left,
when we, we just got to be a little bit more forensic.
I think about what we're talkingabout because we're we're really
(24:49):
moving our discussion to the right all.
The time, but isn't the point that you're both making that
that actually on on on on economics and on workers rights
and all the rest of it, Britain and welfare.
Britain might be movable to the left, but on immigration you're
all moving to the right. Well, I just think what John was
saying is absolutely right. However, I did find that you
(25:13):
it's easy when talking about these things to talk about soft
left policies that appeal to people.
Please speak country is quite economically left wing and
that's been the case for a while.
And there is certainly mass appeal to things like
nationalising utilities and, and, and, and although actually
the pen, the benefit gap doesn'tpoll the removing it doesn't
pull that well. But it is difficult to emit the
(25:36):
issue of immigration. It is now the number one or
sometimes #2 but it's a dominantconcern for voters, including a
sizeable chunk of Labour voters.And actually, even if, you know,
Zoe mentioned obviously deportation policies, now it
could be, you know, it's potentially a bit squeamish to
talk about, but even a majority of Labour voters back deporting
people who are in the country illegally.
(25:56):
Now, none of this is to say thatthere isn't a leader that could
be able to try and thread that needle, but it is there to be
threaded. And I think part of the problem
is even there was a poll out yesterday actually showed even a
plurality of Green voters back deporting migrants that are here
illegally. And so I think the issue is
going to be that I think you canhave a leader that is going to
appeal to soft left and can be, you know, I think speak much
(26:19):
more authentically and indeed patriotically about standing up
to forces they disagree with like things like reform.
However, I think you actually it's going to be very difficult
to get the public into a place where they are not still
demanding reductions in illegal and legal migration and I think
that is a difficult issue for the next Labour leader, whoever.
(26:39):
They are, John. I mean, you know, lots of people
in the Labour Party think it needs to be much tougher on
immigration. It's likely to get much tougher
on asylum seekers on Monday. You know, is it ever going to be
authentically believed by the electorates that a Labour
government can be, you know, economically progressive and and
(27:01):
truly tough on immigration? So look the the issue for a
Labour government on the economyand on migration and on law and
order is to be considered competent, to be considered in
control. You will not vote Labour if you
want the harshest of restrictions on immigration.
You won't vote Labour if you want the harsh conditions of
(27:23):
prisons, the longest sentences. But Labour has to acknowledge
the country wants security, border security, it wants
security on the streets. And Labour got to realise the
public are always sceptical about it.
The thing that we are is in the politics of flux, a politics in
which there are local and globalchanges.
There is migration, there's alsoclimate crisis, there is
(27:43):
inflation, cost of living, but there's also AI, there's China,
there's a war in Europe, there'sTrump's tariffs.
There are so many big issues. And it it leaves a space for the
political entrepreneurs. And where I think that what
Farage has done is to be able tomove in to secure a block of 30%
of the vote that wouldn't be a dominant block in any other
(28:05):
time. In politics.
There's five viable political parties and Labour are one of
those other four parties, aroundbetween fifteen, 2025%.
Labour's got to find a way to articulate a future vision, one
that Farage can't do. Labour's more authentic around
managing the markets around intervening, around being left
economically. Farage is currently more
(28:26):
authentic or trusted on. He'll get the job done.
He's hard headed. Labour is in government, it's
got to prove it's got the competence plus the humanity
because people also do want people.
People believe people who shouldn't be here.
You, you apply for asylum, you don't get asylum, you need to be
removed as a working system. They do also believe this
(28:46):
country, this great country of ours does have a responsibility
to refugees. We have to share the burden, but
we have to take some of the burden itself.
And it's finding the way to tellthat story of bringing the
elements together. And I think my, my, my biggest
question mark over the way the government's run itself for the
last 18 months is it's always about process, never about
purpose. It's always about individual
(29:07):
technical, technocratic solutions.
It's never about this is big a big problem requires a big idea.
It requires a big effort. It requires us all coming
together. And I think it's you have to
change the shape, the nature of progressive politics.
And that is why whoever rises the challenge which has been
issued by #10 has got to have a new political economy, a new a
(29:30):
new way of doing politics, a newway of running economy, a new
way of Britain being in the world.
Zoe, that's a big demand do. Do you think the left, whether
it's your party or the Greens, can actually win the argument on
immigration? Well, OK, I totally do, and I'll
tell you how we go about winningthe argument on immigration.
First of all, the reason pollingnumbers are the way they are is
(29:50):
because it's all anybody talks about.
The media and the politicians are in some kind of dance of
death where they won't talk about anything except
immigration, and they try and kind of game each other to more
and more extreme positions. All three of you are talking as
though deportations are only suggested for people who are
here illegally. That's always been true, that
people who get refused asylum get deported.
(30:12):
Nobody's never disagreed with that.
But we're talking about, you know, reform has ideas about,
about leave, to remain, about not having.
People who are here. Legally, yeah, but yeah, if when
you're here legally the Tories have ideas about not get about
being deported if you've ever claimed a benefit.
We're talking about an absolutely febrile environment
in which obviously then when people are asked what the
(30:33):
biggest issues are, they always say immigration because that's
all that the authority ever, ever discussed.
However, when you ask people what the most important thing to
them is, is always cost of living, NHS, sometimes a little
bit of social care if they're inthe older brackets, sometimes a
little bit of crime, especially among women, it's not.
People aren't saying this issue is salient to them, they're
(30:56):
responding to the political climate.
Consequently, every time we say how is the left ever going to
have a viable policy around immigration when the public
public's attitudes are really, really hardening, you're just
this is a self fulfilling fallacy and it and and it's
really dispiriting to watch. Now, I don't know whether I
(31:17):
don't know what the greens ultimate landing point on
immigration is going to be. I don't know how much the late
Labour is going to surrender to the reform agenda.
Although I think to borrow Scarlett's Braves, they haven't
got a floor morally, they'll go anywhere chasing that kind of
energy. But I do know that it at some
point there will be there will cut there.
(31:38):
There is a hardcore of people inBritain who say, look, the
numbers, migration, migrating, fleeing war are no higher than
they've ever been throughout history.
It's about 3%, right? So anything else we can manage.
And whether or not these, you know, Nigel Farage shows what
happens when you try and build aproject not by amalgamating 25
(32:02):
views, but by going hard for your core.
The person who goes hard for thecore that will not not talk
about people as burdens, that will not talk about people as
illegals, the people who go hardfor that core are going to win
something. Just finally, I mean, Scarlett,
if you, I mean you've made it clear you think it's, it's
irrecoverable for Keir Starmer. The question is, is it
(32:23):
recoverable at all for Labour, you know, before the next
election, if Labour, how you know what, what are the things
Labour needs to hit? You know, is it they, they kind
of assume it's the health service and immigration.
Are they right in that? Look, it's a very difficult and
narrow path for Labour, I think,but I think it's a path that
(32:43):
still plausibly exists. What should they do?
I think John is right when he says they need to show
competence on issues whilst potentially not focusing on
them, right? So like with immigration, I do
think they're going to need to deliver the sorts of things that
are looking for. I slightly disagree with Zoe.
I don't think it's just because people are talking about it.
(33:04):
Obviously giving things more media oxygen, we'll see an
impact on how much people think about it.
But actually, if you look about the concern for immigration, it
was when it started spiking whenimmigrants were starting to be
put up in asylum hotels. And I did notice from focus
groups at the time that people who said previously they didn't
think much about that issue feltvery differently when they had a
(33:24):
hotel in their area. So I also do think it is to a
certain extent what people are seeing or hearing in their local
communities as well as what whatthey might be ingesting on the
news. But putting that to a side, I
think Labour, I mean look what Labour should have done when
they got in last time in the 2024 election was to SAT
straight away, no summer recess,have Parliament working everyday
to show they were delivering on the nation's priorities and go
(33:47):
hell for leather on the NHS because that is something that
they have in their favour. People do not trust the
Conservatives on the NHS. People do not trust reform on
the NHS. Lots of voters are worried that
Nigel Farage might privatize thehealth service.
That is something consistently that I hear in my focus groups,
and you can see this in the dataas well.
It should be a card Labor can play.
It is one in which they are already making progress, albeit
(34:09):
slow progress. And that seems to me a very good
opportunity to keep going and show actual progress.
Obviously it's a difficult task,but that's what I would do.
And for what it's worth, you know, I mean been this podcast
has been fairly critical of Wes Streeting so far.
But I did think during Labour conference I was listening to
Wes Streeting on a media round and he was asked to talk about
(34:29):
the reform indefinite leave to remain policy, much as Kier
Starmer had. And I thought Wes Streeting's
reply was naturally one that would carry a lot more weight
and be more persuasive with the public.
He straight away framed it as anissue to do with the NHS and to
do with NHS workers and about treating them fairly and not
crippling the NHS. And he did it in a way that
(34:50):
seemed authentic to him, and I just thought that was a much
better way of taking on reform. Zoe I mean, it's a lost cause
for you, isn't? It look, this kind of politics
is a lost cause for me. Yeah.
I mean, the, the party, the, theparty hasn't, the party has kind
of peeled away from its from itsown values without really
(35:11):
replacing them with anything obvious.
You know, people like me or evenme made a lot when Tony Blair
came in. But at least they had a project.
At least they would tell you what it was.
At least they would fight you about it, right?
They would air arguments to you and and argue them
intellectually because they had meaning.
(35:34):
I just did this this lot. They they they can't bring their
arguments because they don't have arguments.
John. Look, I think Labour has a case
to make. It's got a progressive case to
make and the the the government stumbles when it doesn't have a
case. It had no case about cutting to
simply benefits. It couldn't answer the question,
had no case to make about cutting winter fuel payments.
(35:56):
Now we have a situation where #10 have have decided they want
to provoke a leadership contest.I don't think a leisure contest
is a great idea or a solution initself.
I do think a contest of ideas would be a good thing because
there's a lot of ferment on the progressive side of politics and
there's a lot of demands on across all of politics.
(36:18):
And I don't think that people are settling to be, let's be a
right wing country. Look at how badly the Tories are
doing. They do want disruption, they do
want change. They've voted for change in so
many ways in the last decade, whether for Brexit, for Corbyn,
for for Starmer, for Johnson. Labour had to be able to say
this is the change that we need as a country, this is how we
(36:40):
will deliver it. We may need new faces and new
voices to go with new ideas and new policies, but we also need
to accept we did lose our way the last 18 months.
I could defend the record because there's many great
things, but there's something gone wrong and I think
Scarlett's got it. Scarlett hears it in in our
focus groups, we lose Scarlett'sfocus groups, you lose Zoe
(37:03):
Williams. What is a Labour government
doing that can't keep working people and can't keep Zoe
Williams in broad support And what's, what is this government,
Labour government doing? What's Keir Starmer doing when
he makes Zoe make the case for Tony Blair?
On on that note, thank you all very much indeed.
That's the forecast. Until next time, bye bye.
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