Pin Your Bets on Polls Carefully

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Three weeks from yesterday, the most obnoxious, least issues are ended,
most hateful, least informative presidential election, and the two hundred
and forty eight years of the Republic will conclude and
will have a new old one, which is rare. The
last time we gave a guy a presidential mulligan was
eighteen ninety two. It was Grover Cleveland, the lawyer's son

(00:21):
of a Presbyterian minister. Or we will have the first
woman to ever get the job. What's going to happen
this year? Well, the polls, such that they are, are
not reliable, and virtually all of them ramping up to
the twenty sixteen election had Hillary Clinton winning easily. She lost.
Four years later they had Joe Biden winning easily and

(00:42):
the next day, be it not for about one hundred
and twenty thousand total votes in three swing states, Trump
would have been re elected. So pin your bets on
polls carefully. But the candidates and their inner circles know better.
They have internal polls the rest of us never see
or hear about until long after the election. In twenty sixteen,

(01:04):
Clinton's internal polls just days before election day had Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
and Michigan slipping away. These were solid Democrats strongholds for decades.
Same thing for Trump and Arizona and Georgia four years ago.
All we hear is glad tidings and breathless confidence from
the candidates and their surrogates. Each is predicting a close win.

(01:27):
So how do we know? Watch what they do? Donald
Trump has not changed a single thing in his strategy.
He campaigns twelve hours per day, travels five hours, sleeps
the rest, and that's not much. He does rallies, interviews,
podcast town halls saying the same thing, border economy, crime, incompetence.

(01:49):
Contrast that with the tectonic shift in Kamala Harris's campaign.
Her campaign started with few appearances, zero interviews, no news conferences,
highly controlled events at which she could read scripted remarks
on a teleprompter. Poles surged, but since she wasn't answering
any questions, let alone with substantive answers, the excitement of

(02:13):
dumping Grandpa Joe for a fresh, attractive face started to fizzle.
Her handlers would parcel out about face positions on issues,
but we never actually heard it from her, hm we thought,
so we were left with old Kamala tape about banning fracking,
seizing guns, abortion by appointment, reparations, unearned free stuff in

(02:36):
exchange for votes, and stupid flippant answers about the border disaster. Meanwhile,
Trump kept reminding us how much better it really was
before she and the old Man took over, and we
remembered black folks are drifting from her. Hispanics are drifting
from her, Jews, educated Whites, and moderate Democrats because their
lives were better too. All along, her campaign kept saying

(03:00):
the same thing, but is now doing something else. Suddenly
she's doing press interviews answering questions badly, but she's not
just reading teleprompters. Her policy positions are now trickling out
of her not unaccountable campaign staffers, and they're not popular.
She committed to do a no conditions interview with Fox
news smartest anchorman Brett Baer. Why because Fox owns voting

(03:25):
age men and polls show male voters thinks she's a
dingbat backed up by concrete examples. Remember, she was the
most unpopular vice president since Dick Cheney for a reason,
Actually many of them. The polls show. We don't think
that dei hires would make good presidents. So now she's
seriously considering appearing on the Joe Rogan podcast. Now Rogan's

(03:49):
show is a three hour ball scratch from the most
popular man cave on the planet. He has two hundred
and fifty million downloads. She can't do much more than
thirty minutes with the mannerly Bear. How does she survive
three hours with Rogan who hates at least fifty percent
of her ideas. There's an industry term for this. It's

(04:10):
called a political hail mary, and you'll only throw hail
mary's in desperation at the end of the game. This
campaign may be saying the same things about winning, but
doing things very consistent with losing.