Episode 368 - 2025 Breakout Candidates

Ben, Russell and Darius combine forces to discuss Spring Training news (RIP Gerrit Cole's elbow), potential 2025 breakout candidates (and what even is a breakout?) plus some classic Spring Traning statline overreactions (panic!!!!)

Time Codes:

00:00-02:00: Intro
02:00-18:30: Spring Training stories: Gerrit Cole, Dave Roberts, New Era caps
18:30-46:00: Breakout candidates
46:00-1:02:00: Spring Training statline overreactions
1:02:00-1:05:00: Outro

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:17):
Hello, and welcome to Backflips and Nerds, the Baseball podcast
with a British twist. I am your host today, Ben Carter,
and I'm joined as we're less than a week away
from Opening Day. I think now by two of my
fine accomplices here on this podcast, starting with the main
man himself, Russell Eason.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
How are you, Russell?

Speaker 3 (00:35):
I'm doing good. Thanks, I'm doing good. I'm hearing our conversation.
We're having the faint cheers of an Arsenal match going
on in my background as it's a Champions League night.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
Oh there, Aga, you can give us updated on the
score there then. And we're also joined by Darius Austin.
Darius have been on a pop with you in a
little while.

Speaker 2 (00:52):
How are you?

Speaker 4 (00:53):
I'm doing it right. I'm wondering if you've sparked a
debate already about whether it counts as opening Day when
it's just to Dodgers and comes playing in Japan.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
That's a great point. I guess opening Day version one,
but not proper opening day. I don't know, it's not
game day.

Speaker 3 (01:10):
Like it's just not like it's a freaking exhibition series
that is actually counting, Like.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
If the game counts it's opening day. No, anyway, this
is not, this is not We will get things back
on track. We haven't got a whole lot to get
food today, obviously, when we're deep into spring training now,
plenty of baseball happening, not a whole lot of meaningful
baseball happening until next week. And you know, even Russell
might disparage that point. But we are going to talk

(01:41):
a little bit about a few of the major spring
training news items, and we're going to go into some
breakout candidates from each of us. There will probably be
some debate around the definition of breakout candidates. I know
you guys touched on that a little bit last week anyway,
and then a little bit of do you believe it
or do you not from some initial spring training stats,
because no one loves anything more than guys putting up
a tooth ops. I'm saying, is this sustainable? But I

(02:03):
guess on the spring training news front, a few pieces
to cover, starting with the announcement that Gerrit Cole the
Yankees star starting pitcher ace pitcher. We'll be getting Tommy
John's surgery, and we'll be missing the entirety of the
twenty twenty five season. Obviously sad news for baseball fans.
Cole has been one of the best pictures in the

(02:24):
game for a long time now and certainly is a
key part of the Yankees hopes going into this season.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
Hopefully it makes a full recovery.

Speaker 1 (02:32):
I know he said he's keen to ye attack the
rehab process in only the way that he can. But
it's a massive blow for the Yankees, and not the
first one they've had to their rotation already the spring.

Speaker 2 (02:41):
Russell.

Speaker 3 (02:42):
No, obviously we're losing Hill as well. It does make
a difference. But this is the reason why teams that
can actually spend the money should have six, seven, maybe
even eight major league ready starters come to start the
spring training, because you're going to lose one guaranteed. This
is no doubt behind. This is actually what teams, the
top teams are doing. Look at what the Dodgers do.

(03:04):
Like you just need to have a plethora over arms
and assume that people are going to get injured and
you work from it from there. Maybe this will give
Garrett Cole some time to work on his PFPS, so
he'll be good a little bit better come here. Return
in probably what would be eighteen months time. But just aside,
obviously this is not good for the Yankees. I think

(03:25):
they were already potentially gonna struggle to win that division.
It's probably the strongest division in baseball. But I think
he probably has the least worst team, if that makes sense,
the best worst team, And so yeah, they're gonna really
have the struggle to get through this with losing Coal,
which is probably four or five wins, just lopped off
their target for the entire season. It's a shame.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
It gone.

Speaker 3 (03:52):
No, it's a shame. And it's a shame obviously when
you kind of just see the slowly leaking out of
something like, oh, something's happened. He's gonna go get get
an opinion on something, and then you get one person,
one person reporting all there's TJ, but it's going to
be a second opinion, Like I don't think I've ever
seen the second opinion be like oh no, it's all fine.
It's like it was gonna be something. He was probably

(04:13):
gonna be either out for six months or out for
eighteen months, and guessing it's the latter. And we won't
see Grett Cole until part the way through the twenty
twenty sixth season, and so yeah, it's a shame, but
it's spring training. We got our first proper major sprawling.

Speaker 2 (04:30):
It does, unfortunately happen every year.

Speaker 1 (04:31):
Doesn't it a nice of you to kick him while
he's down with a PfP coming to And this this
had happened last spring with Garrett Cole as well, right,
that was when he had the initial railbow problems, but
he rehab dressed and came back obviously performed well for
the Yankees in the second half of the season. It
does feel like this is maybe the simmering blow the
surface for a while, and this is his second Tommy John,
I think I'm right in saying, and you never really

(04:54):
know what the rehab is gonna be, Like, I mean, yeah, Darius,
he's not a young picture anymore. You know, we're probably
looking at even with a good rehab, Yeah, midway through
next season, possibly towards the end of it, for his return.

Speaker 2 (05:05):
Do you think we've seen the best of Cole?

Speaker 1 (05:07):
You optimistic about his opportunity to bounce back and be
the same as picture once he returns.

Speaker 4 (05:13):
Not really, No, we've seen him kind of have a
little bit of a decline in terms of that strikeout
rate anyway, and it's obviously still been a very good picture,
but we haven't seen him really hit those heights of
his peak. Ironically, you kind of won that cy young
in one of his you know, maybe his third or
fourth best season really, And then when he comes back,
he's going to be not that far off being thirty six,

(05:35):
I would guess, you know, it only be a few
months away from that. So I'm sure he will attack
the rehab and come back and still pitch well. But
I think we're probably not going to see, you know,
justin Verlander is a bit of an outlier, and yeah,
I can just come back in my mid to late
thirties after TJ and still part of that kind of season.

(05:55):
Maybe Cole will prove me wrong, but I think we
have seen those signs of decline alreally. I'm sure the
Yankees don't regret the fact that he helped them get
to the World Series. You know, that was what we're
well here for after all. But as you say, it
did feel like this has been coming and Cole has
been a very durable picture for a very long time.
But everybody's going to get hurt sooner or later. And yeah,

(06:16):
I think I think we've probably seen the last of
Garrett Cole uber race.

Speaker 1 (06:21):
Bad news for the Yankees, and he talked about we
talked about just now Russell that Hill also injured pressure
on n rotation already obviously Shan Carlos Stanton with both elbows,
causing him him issues panic stations for the Yankees. I
know we have our predictions pods coming up in the
next week or so, so I don't want to step
on the toes of our discussions there, but you know,

(06:42):
there are reasons here for Yankees fans to be considered,
reasons for us to think this team is going to
be worse than twenty twenty five than we'd initially anticipated.

Speaker 3 (06:50):
Yeah, I think that the losing those two key starters,
like I said, it's four, it's five to potentially six
or seven wins that you would now say less than
what they could actually be. Obviously Stroyman is a reasonable replacement,
not like gonna throw anything out of the books, but
will be a reasonable starter. But yeah, otherwise you're starting

(07:10):
to push into kind of like do they now take
need to get more out of some of the other
guys like Clark Schmidt or anything like that to to
see what's going on. So I don't know. The Yankees
are probably still eighty five ninety win team, but in
that division, it gets a little bit crushed to be like, well,
that's probably not gonna be enough to win that division.

(07:32):
You kind of going on hopefully the fact that you
can get back in via a wild card. It's not
really what the Yankee is probably gonna be wanting after
losing in the World Series. Like, the only really way
for them to progress is to to win the World Series.
Everything else is probably seen as the failure and a
step backwards, which is it is difficult, but it's what

(07:52):
you do when you are the the franchise or still
trying to be the franchise, with the Dodgers kind of
in my opinion, really taking that away from them in
the last ten years or so, but obviously the Yankees
has still the much more historical franchise.

Speaker 1 (08:09):
Yeah, I think you fear for a team if they're
going to be relying on quality innings from Carlos Carrasco.
So we'll wait to see if they make any moves
in the build up to the start of the season
or what they choose to do. But yeah, certainly some
concerns there. In another spring training news, the World Series
winners Los Angeles Dodgers have either officially announced or about
to officially announced an extension for their manager, Dave Roberts

(08:32):
four years, thirty two million or thirty two point two million.
I think he just nipped out Great Council for the
most average annual value for a manager, which is something
that I didn't realize would matter to anyone, but I
guess you know, if you're going to get a new contract,
make it the biggest one. So congrats to Dave Roberts.
Let's start with the hard hitting questions, Darius. Is Dave
Roberts a good manager?

Speaker 4 (08:55):
I think maybe we're past that Dave Roberts can't do
it in the playoffs narrative. I think have we cleared
that one. Yeah, it's hard to know. Obviously he has
an immense amount of talent at his disposal, but I
think it's easy to underrate how difficult it is to
keep a clubhouse together the way he does. Everybody speaks
very highly of him. The Dudger's front office, which is

(09:17):
full of very smart people, often think very highly of him,
and he's basically the best manager of all time by
winning percentage. Now you can say that a decent chunk
of that is the personnel he's been given. But we've
seen lots of managers be given very good rosters and
do a worse job than this, especially over this kind
of period of time. You know, you don't get to
stick around this long if you've lost the clubhouse, if

(09:39):
you're not doing a good job of managing you guys.
So yes, I can't definitively say someone else will be
able to do just as good at a job as
Dave Roberts Siffer. They were given this position of being
on the most loaded team in baseball. But I think
you can't say that he's failed either. You know, there's
been the odd playoff exit where people have said or
don't like that bullpen move. But think the day in,

(10:01):
day out. Let's keep these guys together, you know, let's
implement the stuff the front office one. All of those
things they've they've probably seems to be really really good at.
And clearly the front office agrees.

Speaker 1 (10:12):
Yeah, if I manage a value, such a fascinating thing
to try to quantify it, right, It just in baseball
particularly feels so difficult to weigh up in game decision
making versus how you manage a team roster wise and
lineup wise and pitching wise, versus how you deal with
different personalities. I don't know if there's a way that
you can even I'm sure if there was being have
done it by now right. I mean, Russell, you're a

(10:34):
very smart baseball fan. Do you do you feel like
you have a grip on which managers are good and
which managers are bad and where Dave Roberts falls on
the spectrum?

Speaker 3 (10:42):
You say, it's a very difficult thing to do to me, Like,
one of the ways that I always like to look
at it in a lot of sports is how do
they deal with defeats and how they deal with losses?
Like if you go on a bad streak, how long
does that bad streak happen? Like the Dodgers have not
really had a bad streak in that like ten year
career or ten plus or whatever. It's not all that time.

(11:06):
But yeah, it's been a long time since they've had
like a probably even like a five game losing streak.
Like whatever, the culture, whatever, the atmosphere is within that
club from from the top to bottom. But I don't
let the losses get to them, which is what really
makes a difference. I think you see a lot more
in sports like football or rugby or maybe American football,
where you have a less amount of games to go

(11:28):
and the pressure of an individual loss is more significant.
But baseball does give a bit of freedom. The one
lost doesn't mean the end of the world, although if
the Cubs win the Tokyo Series two nil, there'll be
a lot of people saying that, like, that's best for baseball,
and the Dodgers have messed up their entire system. Now,
is Robert's good? I guess we just don't know, is

(11:49):
the honest answer. But I think that the only way
we can really say that he probably is good is
that the Dodgers have all of the money and probably
all of the could get, could hire anybody they probably
wanted to, and they've chosen not to do so, and
they've chosen to keep Roberts this time, which I think
is DEMI is a strong enough sign that he's actually
he is a good manager. Like if the players like him,

(12:12):
if the runt office likes him, if the ownership likes him,
I can't really think that you're doing a bad job.
It's it's easy to con a couple of people into
thinking that you're good at your job, but it's not
easy to cont like sixty seventy people that you're doing
a good job. So yeah, you've got to say he's
done a good job. I do love the piss entry though,
with like the very tiny bit extra than the largest

(12:34):
contract that currently exists right now, because probably the negotiations
were like eight million, Yeah, that sounds good. Hey, if
we make it like eight point zero one, then it's
like you'll have the biggest contract ever and we can
put that in the press release and it's like, okay, cool, Yeah, fine.
Doesn't seem like it was an amount that he really
cared about, but it is a nice one to the

(12:56):
Dodgers can can put out there.

Speaker 1 (12:59):
I do wonder if they, yeah, little pedantic acts of
upping the previous record is more from Dave Roberts sider
from the agent side, Like is it more the agent
wanting to say I got the largest contract in history
for my clients versus Dave being like screw Crey.

Speaker 2 (13:12):
Council, I'm on top of the who knows?

Speaker 1 (13:17):
In Lighter Spring Training News, one of the key stories
that's I can't believe we're about to talk about this.
Come across a certainly social media in the last couple
of days and as got into the new cycle, I
think even today as well is the.

Speaker 2 (13:30):
New New Era hat collection.

Speaker 1 (13:32):
And it feels like we do at some point every
spring have to discuss some kind of major merchandise snafo
one way.

Speaker 2 (13:38):
Or the other.

Speaker 1 (13:40):
But this year it's yeah, the new hat collection, which
as we speak, it feels like more of them are
being pulled off the off the website for purchase. I
guess we should warn for potential bad language at this point,
especially to those who are Spanish speakers. The Los Angeles
sorry the texts. Tetas Rangers released their special which YAP

(14:00):
spelled out a rude word in Spanish. There's the ash shows,
there are the anales going to be careful how I
pronounced that one effectively Because they've got the superimposed logo
on top of.

Speaker 2 (14:10):
The team name. You end up with these just bizarre what.

Speaker 1 (14:14):
Appeared to be printing errors that have actually been released
as hats. I think all three of those I just
mentioned have now been removed from the website. It wouldn't
surprise me if they all get taken down at some point.
These are just disastrous designs, aren't they, Darius? I mean,
what when you were thinking and how did this possibly
ever get to the stage where fans could actually purchase them?

Speaker 4 (14:32):
Well, I suppose the obvious answers They weren't thinking. They
just thought people will buy stuff with their team's lego
on it, which I think has proven to be generally
true in the past. Slightly less obvious but probably still
quite obvious answer is they knew exactly what they were doing,
and they thought this will generate loads of media coverage,
and everybody will look at these hats, and some people

(14:54):
will buy them after having looked at them, who wouldn't
have bought them otherwise. And so even though we look
like idiots, we've had some money, which is fundamentally the
point of making these hats. I suppose some of them
are just Yeah, you can't imagine that anybody even looked
at it once before putting it on a website? Is
that kind of Shall we get AI to design this
and just whack up whatever it comes out because they

(15:17):
are that bad? It's horrific. But this isn't the first
time we've seen awfully designed hats. These might be some
of the worst we've ever seen. I think, the sort
of cheapest bassist cash grab. You know, we will just
whack one logo on top of the other and live
it at that. But I suppose we're giving them what
they want by talking about these hats, because people are

(15:38):
now frantically googling if they haven't seen it, and then
maybe go, oh, yeah, I'm going to get this limited edition,
really really awful hat for my team.

Speaker 2 (15:49):
Well yeah, just.

Speaker 3 (15:52):
No, it's obviously they just did the Chicago Cubs one
first and thought that this works perfectly. Look the sea
goes over the see it's a great design choice, and
someone was like, yeah, green, let go. Like, I personally
imagine that there's some delightful malicious intent within new era
employee that like showed the good one and then didn't

(16:13):
like show the rest of them, and the people who
approved it didn't think of the consequences, and then they're
just chuckling away of the stuff that they've managed to produce. Now,
why why assume malicious intent? When was it? Where ignorant
sort of stupidity you can pass instead is usually the
how the phrase roughly goes. I've comfably forgotten what it is,

(16:34):
but yeah, yeah, it just felt like there was just
a simplistic idea of like someone's just like, oh, we've
got all these assets already, can we make some new
caps with the same assets so we don't have to
really do anything, and it's just like, yeah, works, go on,
push it and we end up with some utterly stupid ones. Personally,
I still like the bob on one. I still think
it's it sounds like a cockney insult if you tell

(16:57):
someone bob on mate. It's just like.

Speaker 1 (17:01):
I think a few people had a few bob on
the horses at Cheltenham earlier, didn't they. I mean that's
where my mind goes say with that. But yeah, I
think like the Astros, the Angels and the Rangers are
probably the worst of three.

Speaker 2 (17:12):
But looking at them all now, I mean there are
so like Miami spells out me.

Speaker 1 (17:17):
If you read it front to back, you've got Ariana,
the Ariana Diamondbacks, to beg your pardon, almost all of
them are terrible, apart from the two Chicago teams. Actually
there's to see that work, But yeah, quite why they
thought that they could.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
It's not even like a couple sit through the crack.

Speaker 1 (17:31):
Most of these are just objectively awful then, But yeah,
Tracy to put a link in our group to say
that the now obviously removed from sale, Teta's hats have
been put straight onto eBay for a thousand dollars. So
some people will be making quite good money out of
this if they manage to get in their first and
aller the hats.

Speaker 3 (17:47):
The thing to me is that you also want to
know there are a couple of decisions that just don't
make logical sense as well, like why is the Colorado
Rockies one Colorado Rockies with the cr over it where
pretty much everything else is just like the city name
with or like the Rockies with something like that? Is
that just a decision that is across all Colorado Rockies things?

(18:10):
Can you not get like just the word Rockies on
a Colorado Rockies cab or it just looks.

Speaker 1 (18:16):
Not to be confused with the Mountain range. Yeah, yeah,
it's bizarre, I think. Yeah, But the more we try
and explain or justify this, that what difficult it becomes.
It is clear that not a lot of thought went
into this, but you know, it was a dull period
of spring training. So hat tips and new era for
giving us something to talk about and laugh about. And yeah,
if you've been lucky enough to get your orders in

(18:38):
early on these hats, then you may well end up
with a collector's itemsuse I suspect they will will all
be pulled from from sale in fairly short order, possely
by the time this podcast even goes out. Let's get
into the meat and bones of the podcast then. I
think you guys obviously chatted a little bit last week
around some of your likes and dislikes in spring training,

(18:58):
bug bears and things that you enjoy, and that the
topic of breakout candidates came up. And I'm going to
even be careful with how I phrase my words here
discussing the because I know they're going to get controversial again.
But we thought we might try and put together each
of us a couple of real breakout candidates I guess
to be defined by each of us individually before we
present them to each other. But I don't know if

(19:19):
maybe Russ you want to go first explaining your I
guess justification for what counts as a real breakout and
maybe start us off with your first candidate from your
own criteria.

Speaker 3 (19:29):
Yeah, it's it's obviously a subjective term like order this,
and anybody who listens to the effectively Wild will have
heard Ben Linberg's gripes with a lot of these things.
To me, like a breakout candidate can't have been good,
Like I think that's pretty at least like within MLB,

(19:51):
basically they can't at the major league level, they can't
have already been good. And even for me, it's like,
you can't already have had like half a season of
been good if you've had like eighty or one hundred
games already last year and you were good, And just
because people didn't realize you were good last year doesn't
necessarily mean that like it's a breakout because you know
what kind of happened. But yeah, and so, But then

(20:14):
there's other sides to it, Like the couple of people
I'm gonna say were first round picks, So can you
really say that their breakout candidates. They're just potentially people
who I think can reach the caliber that people thought
of them a couple of years ago, but have maybe
gone a little lower on them given the fact that
they've had some bad seasons recently. So, yeah, that's mine

(20:37):
and the first one I'll go with uh is Jacob Wilson.
He is it was drafted sixth by the A's back
in twenty twenty three. That ship. If I'm wrong, than
I have ago the check. Yeah, it was twenty twenty
three and effectively was rushed in some regards to the
miners from the miners all the way through to the

(20:59):
majors and played in majors last year, had effectively like
one hundred play appearances in the majors last year, but
had like a forty I had, like it's like an
eighty WRC plus, which you're like, well, it's not particularly good,
not particularly bad, but like it was pretty just bang
average player. But obviously he's twenty two years old. If
you look at his minor league statsy absolutely raked. And

(21:21):
then I read like prospect reports who were just like, oh, yeah,
he's like he doesn't have a power back And I'm like,
he's twenty two years old last year and he has
a two hundred WRC plus in Triple A and you're
telling me, like he doesn't have power, by okay, so
he doesn't hit home runs. His home runs the only
way that we like deciding power, like he gets doubles,

(21:43):
he turns things out, and so I don't know, I
feel that like, because he's on the A's, because he
had a bit of a crap first season, people are
going to forget that he was I projected to be
a good player, and I really think that we could
be talking about him in the same same tones is

(22:03):
probably talking about Butler and a Rooker from the end
of the season.

Speaker 1 (22:08):
It feels like there are a few A's players who
have been yeah, maybe earmarked his potential breakout candidates. I
guess just with the nature of how young their roster
is and how many players might get opportunities this year.

Speaker 2 (22:16):
That's natural.

Speaker 1 (22:16):
Plus the two guys you mentioned obviously had breakup seasons
last year, so it's easy to look to them for opportunities.
But I think Wilson feels like as good as candidate
as any. So no arguments here. I'll give my first
breakout candidate, and I guess I'll note first that, yeah,
my criteria may be a little bit different. I think,

(22:36):
you know, for me, a breakout was just a significant
increase in performance. So even if a player was average
in the majors previously, I think a breakout is then
then stepping up to the echelon of great or stepping
up from you know, being poor to average. That in
my mind, that's what constitutes a breakout. But I will
concede that, you know, everyone has their own different subjective

(22:56):
measure of what that constitutes. But the first guy I've
got is Freelik of the Milwaukee Brewers outfielder who has
been in the majors for a couple of years now,
certainly a year and a half or so. He spent
almost the entire year last year up as there every
day right fielder, and he was also a former first
round pick, so certainly had prospect pedigree, but maybe he

(23:17):
hasn't quite fulfilled it yet at the major league level.
Last year he hit two point fifty nine three twenty
three point thirty five, so not the most exciting year
with the bat, only put up one and a half
wins above replacement, and a lot of that was shiven
by his glove, which was excellent in right field. He
did win a Gold Glove out there, but he hit
just two home runs all season, although Brewers maybe Mets
fans may remember a very clutch postseason home run he hit,

(23:40):
and he actually had I think the lowest average exit
lost in baseball among all regular starters, so certainly room
for improvement with the bat, which is why I've got
him pending as a possible breakup candidate, because he is
one of those guys. He's come two spring training in
the best shape of his life, has reportedly added twenty
five pounds of muscle. He has already maybe shown signs

(24:03):
of that paying off in spring. I think he's had
a few hard hit balls over one hundred past nine
hour exit loss ts, which he was struggling to hit
at all last year, So signs that he's going to
be able to barrow up the ball a lot better.

Speaker 2 (24:14):
If you look at his.

Speaker 1 (24:15):
You know, stack carst page, there's there's some really good numbers,
but there are some really poor ones, especially when it
comes to hard hit rate, barrel rate, all of that
kind of stuff. So I think if he's able to
square the ball up more, that's a great sign he
is excellent and not striking out. You know, he's ninety
eighth percentile with rate last year, ninetieth percentile strikeout rate.
His sprint speed is ninety fourth percentile, so he's fast.

(24:35):
He doesn't strike out a lot. If he's now hitting
the ball hard as well. I think you've got all
of the tools for a pretty good everyday outfielder, you know.
I think his his flaw in theory is an elite
defensive outfielder who's got good back to ball skills, can
have high batting averages and steal some bases. And I
think if you add now a potential ceiling as a
guy you can hit, you know, even if it's ten

(24:56):
to fifteen home runs, and put the ball into the
gap more and his legs a lot more on the basis,
then I think that's a guy who can quickly turn
into a three or four win player for the Brewers
and be a really important part of their lineup. So
I know a guy who, yeah, has been looked at
as a high pedigree player, maybe just hasn't had it
click yet at the major league level. But I think
there's reasons to believe that that this could be the

(25:16):
year that it does click for him and that he
becomes a maybe not a star, but certainly one of
the brewers better players. Darius, do you have a breakup
candidate for us and a definition of breakout to go
with it?

Speaker 4 (25:27):
Yeah? I have two.

Speaker 3 (25:29):
Really.

Speaker 4 (25:29):
One is that you know when you see it. Sometimes
hard and fast rules don't necessarily work that well with
this kind of thing, and sometimes you're just someone will
say a name and I'll be like, viscerally, no, that
is incorrect. You know, I already thought that player was
at that level. That's not a breakout. Or yes, that
player has done something new, they've achieved a new level,

(25:52):
which is kind of my second definition. I kind of
agree with you on the if you were average, but
you've clearly ascended, if you have moved way beyond a
previous level of performance, then I think that qualifies as
a breakout. So yeah, if you were a two win
player and now you're a five win player, that's a
breakout to me. Even if you were recognized as a good,
solid major league regular, that's that's definitely a breakout. You know,

(26:14):
if you've sort of incrementally made an improvement, and yeah,
as Ross said, if people didn't notice, that's not really
a breakout. But so I think I think there's some
leeway in there. And obviously perception is key for some people,
but I think that that for me is the key.
If if you've demonstrated that your skills have assented to
a different level, from how they were before my first one.

(26:38):
Probably people might argue because he was a star in career,
but Jung Hooley signed with the Giants last off season
and he had a fairly underwhelming little bit of major
league performance and then he got himself injured and that
was the last we saw of him. Basically, so his
stat line, if you look at his stat line, he
doesn't look like he did anything much. Obviously, he hasn't

(26:58):
actually proven that he could translate his skills to the majors.
But he's still very young. He's twenty six. I have
pretty good confidence that he will be able to do that.
He always ran ludicrously low strikeout rates in Korea, really
really good plate to have been, good approach about to
poor skills, good defender in centerfield. So I think Lee
is going to be a real star for the Giants

(27:19):
this season. I know a lot of people we expected
it last year, but we haven't seen it, and so
I think that would qualify as a breakout if he
exhibits that on the field this year.

Speaker 2 (27:31):
It feels like health is yeah, is the question right there?
Isn't it?

Speaker 1 (27:34):
I agree, obviously didn't look great when he was on
the field, last year and then if the injury probably
impacted him right when he felt like he was getting
his legs under him. But I'm excited to see what
he can do with a full season under his belt.
And yeah, also I guess just adjusting to a new
country and you language everything else that comes with with
that move. I think we do see that quite often
with players that do come from Japan or career that

(27:55):
maybe takes them a bit more time to adjust properly.

Speaker 2 (27:57):
But I think Lee's a good show. Russell. Does he
meet your criteria for a break up player?

Speaker 3 (28:05):
Yeah, I mean, yeah, I know, I get where Daris
is coming from, and I do I do. I think
kind of just due to his kind of career in
career in career would would mean that, Like I don't
think him as much as a breakout candidate, but I
can definitely see that, like in if you're not aware
of that, which I think most people would be like, Oh,
he was good enough to come over here, so he's

(28:25):
probably good, but don't know kind of like the scale
of it that I think it's reasonable and didn't have
a good start, was injured. If he does something amazing
this year, it'll probably work. I like your freelick one.
I think that's the kind of you're almost hoping for,
maybe like a Stephen Kuanes season out of him, where
it just gets that little bit improvement of power and
that takes him from being kind of just an interesting

(28:47):
fringe player to actually being like, no, actually like this guy.
This guy's good.

Speaker 1 (28:52):
Yeah, Kuan's a great comp that'd be a great ceiling
for freel like if he can get anywhere near what
he's managed to do.

Speaker 3 (28:58):
Yeah, And obviously I'm both go I think Jung Holy
is just like, it's just something you want to succeed,
because I think the globalization of baseball and those guys
coming over here and doing good really kind of puts
it back into everybody's mind that it's just like this
isn't just an American sport and that that always fares
so to me. My second one, my second pick is

(29:20):
quite a homer pick because I'm choosing Brian Roccio, who, again,
this is another person who was a high level prospect.
Darius can probably probably know at some point that he
was probably quite high. I think by the time he
left the prospect lists he was back down in kind
of like the fifty sixty range, but I do remember him.
I think I remember him being probably up in the

(29:42):
twenty ranges at some point with what people were thinking
of him. But we've had basically nearly a full season
now of him. He played four hundred and had fortly
played one hundred and forty three games of four hundred
and forty played appearances last year and had a seventy
nine WRC plus great glove, absolutely phenomenal, but basically bad
night for a bat eighth the night for a bad

(30:02):
Cleveland team for most of last season. And you know
what I've said, we shouldn't do it buy I want
to buy into small sample sites, like the end of
the season he looked great, the postseason, he looked great.
Spring training he looked great. Like maybe this is me
just wanting to genuinely believe that everything that we've thought

(30:23):
about this prospect for probably the last I may want
to say, I think he was as high as hired
signed in twenty seventeen. So for me, it's one of
those kind of prospects that like I've known and followed
their whole entire career to be like, oh, please be good,
because it was feeling like it was like Nolan Jones
was the one that I was following and then kind

(30:43):
of left and was at an okay time at the Rockies,
but still high. They feel like Cleveland hasn't had that
positional player really come through from that all of these
good in field prospects that they have, and I would
love to see Rokio take that step up. And I
think that there is some potential there given what he
could do in some of the things. He's still only

(31:05):
twenty four. The same way we're saying with Wilson, as
they're still very young coming into these sorts of things
in them growing into more power or picking up more
power from adjusting to these games. I still feel is
like definitively a possibility for guys until they're probably into
late twenty seven, twenty eight that sort of range. You
still think that there's like growth and development opportunities. So yeah,

(31:27):
another high round prospect. That was a pretty high international
draft pick. So Darius, have you looked it up to
work out what was his highest?

Speaker 4 (31:35):
Not right, not quite as high as twenty We had
him forty seventh BP before the twenty two season. BA
had him sixty sixth that year, so he was in
that sort of middle of the top one hundred range,
and then yeah, as you say, slid down those rankings
sort of yeah, back end of the top one hundred,
or not on them at all by the time he
actually sort of came up.

Speaker 1 (31:58):
It feels like he fits the the mold of the
almost classic breakout candid, doesn't it. I think my mind
always goes to the guys who, like the once top
prospect or the wance well hyped amateur, who for one
reason or another didn't work out, you know, either in
the higher miners or the first go around of the majors,
but still clearly has all of those skills that could
then lead them to be the player you.

Speaker 2 (32:18):
Always thought they could be.

Speaker 1 (32:19):
And I guess we see it a lot with guys who, yeah,
for whatever reason, aren't able to make it click the
first go around and the majors for the first year
or two, but then suddenly, you know, having got repped
under their belt or made some kind of adjustment or
found a new pitch or whatever it might be, then
suddenly fulfill their promise. And I think teams do get
a lurd by that potential, don't they. With guys that,

(32:40):
even if it takes from four or five years. When
you've got that pedigree of want being that player and
some of the raw skills that no translates to production,
it's hard to get over them.

Speaker 3 (32:50):
I know.

Speaker 2 (32:50):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (32:51):
In my year, certainly playing fantasy baseball, you have those
players who, like you just know this is going to
be the year it all clicks for them, and.

Speaker 2 (32:57):
You know usually it isn't, but you can't help but
onto that.

Speaker 3 (33:01):
Yeah, and another one that like not gonna quickly dip
another one. It's very similar candidate. I feel like it's
Joey Bart, but I think that's that would be a
very interesting one. I don't know what Darius thinks about that,
but I think he had a good, good little go
with Pittsburgh at the end of last year, and I
think we'll get a good chance to play a lot
of games this year, and we could see Bart reaching

(33:21):
that potential that we all thought was there but just
didn't quite sure when he was at the Giants.

Speaker 4 (33:27):
Yeah, but always hit the ball really hard, you know,
that was never a concern, and it just didn't seem
to make enough contact with the Giants. But yeah, definitely
definitely got that kind of power in his bat. Obviously,
if he's going to catch, you don't need him to
be a super offensive player. Like if he's going to
hit twenty five home runs and put up a half

(33:48):
decent bating average and be okay behind the plate, then
actually you've probably got an above average player there, which
when the Giants let him go obviously looked like, you know,
he might just fall off the face of the map
and never get anywhere. So yeah, I could believe that
joe Bart sort of establishes himself as with a full
season of being you know, a good, good gem, I'll
be catcher this year. It seems distinctly one of the

(34:08):
realm of possibilities, which if you'd asked me that a
year ago, I would have said, no.

Speaker 1 (34:13):
Hard not to root for Joey Bart. I can't believe
he's still only twenty eight. That makes him young by
catcher terms, so hopefully he can put it all together
this year. My second pick, and this one I think
will probably upset Russell a little bit, is a guy
who was very good last year as a rookie. Admittedly
is Spenser Aarraghetti of the Houston Astros. To my mind,

(34:33):
maybe it's just me as someone who doesn't follow baseball
as closely, and I think the average fan maybe wouldn't
know Spencer Araghetti or maybe would you know, have said
they'd know the name. I think he's got the potential
to go from you know, a solid back end of
the rotation, guy who's clearly got upside having been good
as a rookie, to you know, one of the best
pitchers in the league, maybe mostly on the back of

(34:56):
you know, what we saw from him last year.

Speaker 2 (34:58):
Really the underlying numbers.

Speaker 1 (34:59):
I think on the surface, one hundred and forty five
innings pitched a four point five to three ERA one
point six wins above replacement, That by all accounts for
a rookie pitcher is good, right. I don't think anyone
would argue with that, and I'm not saying, you know,
he's going to bounce back or have to recard from that.
I think second half of the season he was especially good.
So you could even argue that, like he showed signs
last year of breaking out in the second half. I

(35:21):
would concede that. And obviously most of that comes from
the fact that he strikes guys out when he does
it a lot one hundred and seventy one strikeouts in
that one hundred and forty five innings a twenty seven
point one percent strikeout rate would make him fifteenth in
the majors last year.

Speaker 2 (35:34):
That's very, very.

Speaker 1 (35:35):
Good, and it also suggests he got a bit unlucky.
I think both his fielding, independing pitching, and x fit
had him lower than his RA four point one eight
four point oh one, respectively. He has some issues with babbit,
which we know tends to fluctuate and is kind of
just bad luck. And he also did walk a few
too many guys and give up a few too many

(35:55):
home runs, which obviously had an impact.

Speaker 2 (35:57):
On your RA.

Speaker 1 (35:59):
But yeah, the striker alluring, and I think if you've
got that kind of stuff, and if you need to
any proof of how good his stuff is, he was
the guy who ended lewis Arias's non strikeout streak, got
one hundred and forty one play appearances. If you can
strike out lewis Arias, he've probably got good stuff. So yeah,
I think you know, Astros fans will know this, but
I think fans of other teams might not. And I
think this is the year that if he can increase

(36:21):
his innings pitch towards the one seventy one eighty mark.
If he can get the ERA down around four, and
if he can continue to strike out as many guys
as he has been, we're gonna be talking about him as,
you know, a four win player who is one of
the fifteen best pitchers in baseball possibly. You know, there's
obviously a lot that has to go right, and I
think we've seen rookie pitchers be great and then go
through something of a sophomore slump.

Speaker 2 (36:43):
So I'm not saying that's out of the question.

Speaker 1 (36:44):
There's you know, those command questions are certainly still there
with him, and I don't know if we've seen any signs.

Speaker 2 (36:49):
In spring that he's fixed those.

Speaker 1 (36:51):
But I think when you look at a guy who, yeah,
that kind of strikeout stuff just pops off the page.

Speaker 2 (36:56):
And I think if we're looking for a.

Speaker 1 (36:57):
Guy who could end up the season as one of
the best pictures and isn't being talked about in that
way right now, I think that's that's where I would
go as someone who who's got that kind of upside.
So I will concede not exactly, you know, an under
the radar breakout candidate, but I still think one who
could you know, surprise.

Speaker 2 (37:12):
People with just how good his performances could be. But
go ahead, race me.

Speaker 3 (37:17):
No, Like he's one of those ones that is like
just about borderline like to me, like the basically if
you look at the you just they take a season
last year, If you just look at it face value,
you you'd just be like, well, okay, like, yeah, it's
good as a rookie, but four and a half the
ra with one hundred and forty innings doesn't really kind
of make you kind of jump about anything. But you
take one cursory look at first half versus second half,

(37:40):
and it's like a four and a half fit versus
a three seven eight FIP or a four point three
eight X fit versus the three and a half x fit.
So you're just like, oh, hello, he dropped the walks
in that second half even probably got gave up a
few too many fly balls, which six or one half
then to the other. But like that second half of
that of that year, and you're like, Okay, this guy

(38:02):
is he's got something. I think if you go with
yours and Darius's idea, I think there is an element
of your kind of like yeah, like you know what,
like he's he's not known really. He did some good
stuff at Houston, but Houston didn't really make the the
media or make the news last year, so he's been

(38:24):
kind of probably not recognized by a lot of people.
So he's probably just about a borderline candidate that like,
I can make my arguments one way or the other bend.
So I think you're just about okay.

Speaker 2 (38:37):
I get a passing grade. That's very kind. Ross Darius's
second Arrias agree though, No.

Speaker 4 (38:45):
I think I do agree. I don't think he was
good enough for it to be like, you know, oh,
that's just him repeating what he did last season. Like,
I think there is room for growth here. I think
this opportunity in the Asterois rotation, which is obviously a
big part of these they've got to get the playing time.
They're not the team they were, and I think they're
going to need to lean on him quite a bit.

(39:06):
And so yeah, the opportunity is there. I think the
stuff is there, like you said, And I think, you know,
he had a four and a half hour last season,
so if he comes out and puts up a three
this year, I don't think anyone's going to say, well,
this is the same Marrigati. We had last season, so
I think it's okay. Yeah, it was a solid but
unspectacular first season on the surface last year, so I
think this this meets the criteria.

Speaker 2 (39:28):
He give us your second.

Speaker 4 (39:31):
I'm going to take Paving Smith and the Diamondbacks, and
this might be slightly controversial because he was very good
last season but in a really, really quite limited playing time.
The Diamondbacks had Joe Peterson last year who sort of
did what Pavin Smith does but has been doing it
for a much longer time, which is, you know, be
a lefty bat who absolutely mashes righties. And therefore Paving

(39:53):
Smith did not get much of a look in, and
he hasn't really had much of a look in. He's
sort of had one full season with Arizona and ever
since then he's kind of bounced around being that platoon guy,
being the bat off the bench, never really getting full run.
And then last year he comes out and slashes two
seventy three, forty eight, five forty seven. But it was
over one hundred and fifty eight play appearances, so you

(40:13):
probably didn't notice that it happened, and a lot of
it was in pinch hit duty and you know he's
filling in on those off days when they were facing
the Rioty. It was not consistent playing time most of
the year, so we haven't seen a lot of Pavin Smith.
Peterson's gone now, of course, and the Diamondbacks seemed to
be trusting him to be that guy against right handed
pitching at least, So the underlying stats look good to me.

(40:36):
The play approach looks good. I think we could see
a similar ish line but over a much larger sample
this season, and then people are going to be taking
notice and going, hey, who is this guy? Because I
think the battle is legit.

Speaker 1 (40:49):
I like that pick, especially because I did not know
what Paven Smith even looked like until I just giggled him.
And that is one of the majors gingers and we
need more of them in the major league. So yeah, again,
he's another guy who Yeah, you're right. I hadn't noticed
he'd done that at all last year. And again, I
feel like I remember him being at one point in
the top prospect and you know, like I can't miss

(41:11):
bat and the heir apparent to Paul Goldschmidt, and then
it kind of all just went quiet, and like you say,
he didn't get much playing time and never really made
a name for himself. So again maybe fits that mold
of we've known there's potential there and maybe now he's
just figured it out and the Dbacks have figured out,
you know, don't start him against left e's and let
him do what he does best. But those numbers from
last year admitted in a small sample size, suggest that

(41:31):
if he has given more playing time, we could be
looking at, you know, one of the majors better power hitters,
which would be WHI would be a nice fine for
the d Backs.

Speaker 3 (41:41):
Yeah, no, I like it as well. I think that
when you've when you've constantly struggled and I think not
been given like the right opportunities like this, this is
like a pretty solid one and it'll be interesting to
see if what sticks and what doesn't stick. Drop the
drop the water, I mean drop the walk a little
bit compared to the previous seasons. But yeah, like when

(42:03):
you were go from what a below Mendoza line in
twenty twenty three to a to a like a two seventy,
I think you've you've got to be like hmm, like
bab it wasn't really out of the out of the norm,
so it makes a lord of these sort of things
to be like, oh, okay, I'm interested. It's not going

(42:24):
to be somebody that people are going to probably be
drafting a fantasy leagues or but it's going to be
somebody that's going to make a difference between whether this
d Backs are going to be a competitive side or not,
especially in that pretty loaded division.

Speaker 1 (42:39):
I think, Ross, you have one more breakout candidate for
us to you. I only did two, but if you've
got a third lesson.

Speaker 3 (42:44):
Yeah, I just wanted to put a picture because I
felt that, like I basically just put two short stops
that were almost identical. So I just put Red louder in.
I think probably nobody knew or probably nobody knows that
he threw six games for Cincinnati last year and had

(43:06):
a one point one seven ERA. So not totally kind
of like to talk too much in sample sizes, but
he's someone that I think if you get we can't
expect that like that's that's not going to happen. But
can we see him with a mid threes ERA and
if he gets he'd be healthy or whatever. He can

(43:28):
get another he can probably get a four win season
out of him. He's somebody that I think that once
again it's the first round pick. It's probably I don't
really remember out of being that high on prospect lists,
but Darius can probably shout at me again that he
was probably pretty reasonable in like the fifties to one
hundred range. I know he was on them, but he

(43:50):
surprised me with what he did last year. And I
think that Cincinnati, I very much think a lot of
Terry Frank Croner and what he can do with young pictures.
So I can really see him pushing out there for
some stuff this year if I haven't quite done my
five unpredictable things to gave or one of the bigger

(44:12):
big things to say, But I might be going with
a Red Louder with some sur young votes.

Speaker 1 (44:18):
Another guy worth googling this hair is fantastic.

Speaker 4 (44:24):
I'll slightly disagree in the sense that Red Louder was
the seventh overall pick and MLB pipeline, especially that in
the thirty fourth on their top one hundred twenty four.
Everybody's got in top fifty this year. Actually, ba I've
got my twenty six, so I think there are a
lot of people who did believe in Red Louder. Coming
out of college, including the Reds clearly, but yeah, similar

(44:48):
draft spot to Jacob Wilson, I guess for the as.

Speaker 3 (44:52):
Yeah, he hasn't had the same dip like the others
guys have had. Like this is someone who's pure. This
is more. I think going to Ben and Darius is
a level of what a breakout pick can be from
somebody basically that has not really done it can top
prospects we breakout. I'm not quite as I don't think
I'm quite as harsh as Ben Lnberg is on this,
On this and this one, I'm like, until you've done it,

(45:14):
you've surely got to You've got to breakout to actually
like do it the first time.

Speaker 4 (45:19):
I also think there is a distinction between the you know,
are you Dylan Cruz? You know? I think if someone
had churn up here and said Roman Anthony is a
breakout piper, most of them think Roman Anthony is the
best position player prospect in baseball.

Speaker 3 (45:31):
So not sure.

Speaker 4 (45:33):
I mean, written out was a good prospect, but he's
not like slam dunk can't miss. He's going to be
an ace prospect.

Speaker 1 (45:40):
Yeah, I have seen Jackson holiday list as a breakout
candidate in some places already this spring, which again I
get it, but like, he was literally the consensus number
one prospect in baseball this time last year.

Speaker 2 (45:49):
So like, yeah, he is probably due a breakout.

Speaker 1 (45:52):
But it's not exactly putting your you know, balls on
the line saying that the guy who everyone thought was
the generational talent might be better than he was in
a pretty tricky rookie season. Anyway, let's not get too
stuck in the debate about that. I think we've listed
some good candidates out there that people can keep an
eye on, whether for their on field performances or for
their hair, as I spent the last five minutes looking
at photos of it louder on Google. Let's move on

(46:14):
to a few spring training standouts. So I've just listed
or gone through and googled, sorry, research some stats from
spring training, which are always great to look at. The
you know, the beauty of short, small sample sizes is
that you get some amazing performance and you get some
really terrible ones. So I thought we'd just go through
a few of maybe the more notable spring performances so

(46:34):
far and quickly I'll ask you guys, as the more
level headed, savvy members of the podcast, whether you're believing
in what you're seeing or.

Speaker 2 (46:42):
Straight up dismissing it.

Speaker 1 (46:43):
And my guess is that off the bat, you're both
going to say dismissed, ful of them because it's such
a small sample, why would you possibly believe anything that's happening.
But you know, I'd encourage you to look deep within
your the recesses of your baseball believing imagination and tell
us why maybe you might see something.

Speaker 2 (46:56):
That is worth believing.

Speaker 1 (46:58):
Let's start with a guy on the Boston Red Sox
who has made a lot of noise, and that is
Trace Thompson. Not a name that's new, I don't think
to any of us and probably not to our listeners.
Obviously famously brother of Nbasco star Clay Thompson, but he
was on the Dodgers for a long time and was
at one point a very productive outfielder there. But I
think in the last couple of years as bounced around
organizations a bit more and probably was looking at being

(47:20):
out of the majors, maybe for good, until this spring,
where he has really taken advantage of a spring training
invite from the Boston Red Sox to lead the majors
in spring training home runs, which obviously means a lot,
but he's got a seventeen thirty nine ops. He has
walked as many times as he's struck out seven of each. Yeah,
six homers. Has mentioned he's been great and looks like

(47:41):
probably securing a roster spot with that team. Reason to
think that they might have lucked into a really productive
player here, Darius.

Speaker 4 (47:50):
I think this is very Trace Thompson, to be honest.
It's not like he's ever been a player without talent.
He is certainly showing as he has power. I believe
Trace has a three homer game in the majors under
his belt at some point in his.

Speaker 3 (48:02):
That was a regular highlight one year of the MLB,
wasn't it.

Speaker 4 (48:06):
Yeah? I think it was. And he's had these little pockets.
You know, we've never seen Trace get three hundred play
appearances in the season, but you can look at some
of his lines they go, oh, he looks quite handy,
and then he will come out the next season and
look like you can't hit. He's just he swings and
missus a lot, and he's one of these players He's
going to run into these hot streaks and you'll think, Wow,
this guy is an everyday player, and then you know,

(48:27):
the pictures just adjust to him and he will strike
out too much. Spring training is a dream for a
guys like Trace. I guess where maybe some of the
pitching isn't as great and he can just come out
and mash. I think Willia or Brady's going to start
the season on the IL. Mass attack of Yoshiet is
going to start the season on the IL. So if
the Red Songs are like, let's start Trace Thompson, give them,
you know, fifty plate appearances. If he comes out and

(48:47):
hits five or six home runs for us in that time, fantastic.
But I fully expect that Trace will probably be with
another organization before the season is out.

Speaker 1 (48:56):
I think he's one of the picks in our my
leaf Ridge draft right ross, so that that could be
an early candidate for for a breakout pick within that
draft anyway, of someone who might end up getting a
lot of play appearances.

Speaker 3 (49:07):
I thought he didn't get picked. I thought that was the.

Speaker 4 (49:10):
I think he I think nobody picked him.

Speaker 3 (49:12):
I think it was common to really, yeah, I think
that was that's the thing to be literally going to say,
is that. No, what I don't think any of you
have like the eight of us, even after the three
teams put together by uneffectively World, I don't think any
of us picked it. So I think that it's yeah.

Speaker 4 (49:27):
Like, yeah, he went undrafted. I personally blame Gaff because
this is a very Gaff type of picks and make
and he failed to do it.

Speaker 2 (49:34):
So this is all on Gaff seconded.

Speaker 3 (49:37):
Yeah, I think like I think back to like to
twenty twenty three, and when I watched like the GB
team take VP at like as the World Baseball Classic,
he was noticeably different, Like he was that the sound
of the ball made off the bat and how far
the ball went. You could be like, yeah, this guy
is a major League of competitor some of these other
guys who are minor leaguers or in independent ball, and

(50:00):
you're like, okay, like he is clearly better. But then
seeing like the US take BP and you're just like, oh,
like he's not an all star, but we know he
has power. So if the Red Dogs give him a shop,
who knows, he might stick. But I think the thirty
plus strikeout rate is will haunt him at some point.

(50:21):
He can look out of it for a while, but
I don't think it's gonna last particularly long, but I
think he could get fifty. I think the fifty play
appearances is a good I'll probably go like twenty five
to thirty would be my shout.

Speaker 1 (50:34):
You're right to call out the the gd baseball connection.
I competelygne about that, but that, yeah, another reason for
us to root for him to break can with a
team and hopefully have.

Speaker 2 (50:42):
A good fifty plit appearances, as that is what he gets.

Speaker 1 (50:45):
Speaking of guys who, yeah, make a different sound in
batting practice, someone who certainly has turned a few heads
with some of his exit velo's for the nerds that
love that stuff is Jack Caglione.

Speaker 2 (50:56):
I think that's how you pronounce it.

Speaker 1 (50:57):
It feels wrong because there are extra letters in there
that I was looking at highlights. They keep calling him
Jack Caglione, so I think that's how you say it,
which doesn't take on my brain right. But anyway, he
obviously a top prospect, only drafted last year by the
Royals two way player. I think he's just focusing on hitting,
certainly for spring training. Possibly the Royals are getting him
to abandoned pitching full stop. I'm note hundred cent sure

(51:18):
on that I'm sure you'll know Darius, but he's hit
some very hard home runs already the spring and looks
like a serious prospect. I think his OPS is even
higher than that of Trace Thompson. It's at nineteen thirty three,
which is absurd. Three home runs, yeah, I think two
of those over one hundred and fifteen mile an now
exit ulos, which puts him in the stratosphere of hard

(51:40):
hit balls. Obviously not going to break camp with the team,
He's only been drafted you know, last year, but signs
that he could be, you know, a serious prospect for
the Royals and someone who they could rely on with
a couple of their other young players as a really
key middle of the order piece for them.

Speaker 4 (51:56):
Yeah. I think Caglioni is correct. By the way, he's
considered much more refined on the hitting side than pitching.
I think most evaluators think he's probably just going to
end up as a bat. There is some scope that
he could you know, do some relief work. This is
not you know, a show Tani. He's going to be
a starting picture and he's going to mash but yeah,

(52:18):
the power is the calling card. This is not a
surprise to me. I fully believe that Kagi is going
to show this kind of power whenever he gets to
the majors, And the question is just can he harness
the hit tall enough to get to all of the power.
But you're not they're not, you know, hot guns. It's
not lying to you those those readings. He really does
have this much power and he's obviously an immensely talented player.

(52:39):
Just need to wait a bit to see what he
figures out, and it will be interesting to see how
long the Royals persist with trying to refine his pitching
or if they just say, you know, let's focus on
the bat jack because this is where you're going to
make your money.

Speaker 2 (52:52):
Of course, you concern as a Guardians fan, Russ.

Speaker 3 (52:56):
The Royals will be always an interesting team, but I
always question how they managed some of their squads, So
who knows, Like coming towards the end of the season,
if you get another couple of injuries to some players,
you're going to call him up for a September release,
And is he going to be a key player that
could kind of like hit some bombs. Possibly? Otherwise, like
you say, he's only played in high A so Hiata

(53:19):
straight to MLB is a It's something I don't think
we see too often, especially for hit.

Speaker 2 (53:24):
Us certainly isn't.

Speaker 1 (53:26):
Yeah, I did see some Royals fans saying, how could
we possibly demote him after these performances. Yeah, it's great
that he's hit some home runs. I would praise, I
would plead for caution when it comes to just trying
to rush him into the majors. Having had about one
hundred and fifty plait appearances in the mine is under
his belt less than that. In fact, I'll quickly cover
the next two at once. Two pictures you've had really

(53:47):
strong springs. Maybe Gavi you can cover the second one.
The first one is clay Homes And this is more
of a mere culper because I think isolated the Mets
when he signed clay Homes.

Speaker 2 (53:56):
Instead, they're going to turn him into a starter, Like,
why are you doing this?

Speaker 1 (54:00):
I get it. It worked once with Seth Lugo. No
need to try and repeat the trick, you know, let
him be a great closer or relief pitcher. No need
to force him into the rotation. But it seems like
the experiment is working today and again it's bring training.
He's made like two starts but he has struck out
thirteen and nine and two thirteen things he's not allowed
to run yet. He has added extra pictures to his arsenal.
By all accounts, it sounds like he has now is

(54:21):
now showing the repertoire of a starting pitcher. Darius, did
the Mets make the right call? We are we looking
at a potential guy who could be, you know, not
just a back of the rotation starter, but maybe even
a guy who's got upside beyond that this year and
beyond for the Mets.

Speaker 4 (54:35):
Yeah, I think there's there's really only one guy doing
the proper, full on reliever to start this season. It's
Clay Holmes. I am all in. From all accounts, it
seems like he picks things up incredibly quickly. I think
Trevor May's been talking about this on rates and barrels,
but just your show Clayer pitch and then you know,
he goes out and throws it straight away and seems
to have learned it easily easy. So yeah, I'm a buyer.

(54:59):
I'm believing it. Think the question, of course is the innings,
because he has been a reliever for so long, you know,
are the Mets going to get one hundred and thirty
hundred and forty innings out of him. But we saw
with Ronando Lofez last year, for example, that these guys
can do it. They can switch back and give you
decent volume and in terms of the stuff. And yeah
that obviously that grand ball rate has been in scolling

(55:20):
card for a long time. I'm buying them all in so,
I think the Mets made a gray call.

Speaker 2 (55:24):
Here, love to hear that. And Russia, you can talk
us through the second guy.

Speaker 1 (55:29):
I thought he might be on your breakout candid list,
but maybe maybe you didn't qualify to your criteria. But
Gavin Williams has been exceptional so far this spring. Is
it something that we can expect to continue.

Speaker 3 (55:39):
Yeah, Williams has had a really weird kind of career
in the major leagues. Effectively, he had a good ERA
with a not really good FIP into twenty twenty three
and then obviously a bit of injury in twenty twenty four,
but then had a bad ERA and a good FIP
in two and twenty four. So anywhere between the three
and a half, probably in a four and a half

(56:01):
ra pitcher, if you're going to say it's in the
lower half and lower part of it. You're not gonna
shock me. Do I think he's an ace?

Speaker 1 (56:07):
No?

Speaker 3 (56:08):
But if he comes out throwing the way he's throwing now,
that three and a half RA or the three r
L FIP could very much well be a three and
a half RA, and with the defense that's probably behind him,
sotuands a good chance of being a great picture. This
is a happy sign for some Cleveland fans, given the
fact that we really don't know who the hell is
actually going to be starting games, and actually getting some

(56:30):
starters that could go five or six innings would be nice.

Speaker 1 (56:34):
I yeah, I appreciate your yeah, your belief in or
lack of belief in the Cleveland system. But I've been
taught to realize by now that if there's a picture
that you've not really heard of who plays for the Guardians,
he's probably gonna end up being really, really good. So
I'm buying Williams for this season. I think he's gonna
be gonna be good and gonna, yeah, maybe not be
an ace, for certainly be more than just a back

(56:54):
of the rotation guy and help that he ra settle
closer to to three than four, which would be much needed,
as you mentioned for for the Guardians, and maybe now
quickly to finish a couple of guys who have not
been so great in spring training.

Speaker 2 (57:05):
Are we worried or are we ignoring what we've seen
from a few of these guys so far.

Speaker 1 (57:09):
Let's start with Sonny Gray, obviously a long established major
league starter, now back with the Cardinals this season. He again,
this is only in two starts in six and two tho,
but he has allowed five home runs already. Hasn't necessarily
looked himself from a philosophy perspective either, though again, how
much you've been into that at this point of a year,
I do not know, but he is probably considered the

(57:31):
ace of that staff. And I know the Cardinals have
done absolutely nothing all winter and probably have got fans
family pessimistic about their hopes of doing anything this season anyway,
but it feels like they need him to be very
good if they're going to have any chance this year.
Is there reason to think that, you know, Gray's remarkable
ability and consistency over the years could maybe be starting
to falter at this point, Darius.

Speaker 4 (57:52):
I'm not worried about his spring training. I think you know,
if you want to pick knits about it. You can
say it's the thirty five year old and he was
never like the biggest flame thrower. But I think he'll
be just fine. We've had little stretches of you know,
Gray looking a bit wobbly in the past, and he's
always come back and found it again, So I think
he'll be absolutely fine.

Speaker 3 (58:13):
Yeah, he's the guy who, by the looks of it,
so to me.

Speaker 4 (58:19):
I was thinking, like, who is the Zach Grenkie Now,
now that Zach Greenki is no longer around, I feel
like Sonny Gray is kind of maybe moving into that
slightly you know, crafty veteran, you know, maybe a bit
underrated space of Yeah, he's probably just doing whatever the
hell he wants in spring training and Wolves come out
of the regular season will be just fine.

Speaker 1 (58:39):
It feels like we've written him off before, haven't we,
and said that this is the end of Sunny Green,
and he has always found a way to come back,
Like he just yeah, he's crafty and he knows how
to use the pitch he's got, so yeah, I believe
him if he says he's messing with his pitch mix
and trying some things out.

Speaker 2 (58:54):
Another guy who struggled.

Speaker 1 (58:56):
Reliever for the Baltimore Orioles, Sir Anthony Domingez the best
names in the majors. Of course he has got and
this is great's been training ride twenty seven era. That
is a bad era. I'm here to tell you he's
allowed ten hits and four home runs in just three
innings of work. Look, it's three innings, so let's start
there and say this or more than that. He doesn't matter,

(59:17):
but I guess it maybe matters a bit more for
the Orioles given that he will likely be starting the
seasons they're closer. I don't know if they intend on
putting Felix Botisa straight back into the role, but I
would expect not. But obviously the bullpen supposed to be
a strength of theirs. Dominguez I think was pretty good
after the trade deadline for them last year. But you
don't want your closer, especially a guy who may have
some pressure on him, to come out at the start

(59:38):
of the season, blowing saves and giving up home runs.
Is there a reason to think that his leash might
be particularly sure or that there could be caused for
concern for the Orioles here, or is it a matter
of hey, better to give up home runs in spring
and get this out of the way.

Speaker 2 (59:52):
Us.

Speaker 3 (59:54):
Yeah, I think us have said as the batista will close,
but he's not going to do two days in a
row or like a pitch more than an ink. So
Domingos is one of those guys I think that will
pick up those extra loads that normally would have gone
to the closer. You know, what's three innings. I don't care,
like there's more enough track record from other things. It's
just like, I don't know, even the best relievers have

(01:00:14):
three bad innings. Am I worried with the innings that
Class A had maybe in the world against the Yankees
last year. No, he's still going to be a good picture.
So like, yeah, it's I don't.

Speaker 1 (01:00:25):
Care, the voice of reason, the voice of reason rat
I hate it. I need hot takes. Domingos has finished.
He's never going to be good again in his life, unfortunately.
I think you're You're probably right, no reason for real.
I don't think he's lost, he's down. I think there's
any issues like that. So unless there's an injury we
don't know about, I think it's fair to say he'll
be back to his usual best and I think we're

(01:00:46):
gonna head now to a little bit of Christmas to
finish because you maybe have some concerns about a certain
John Kenzi.

Speaker 2 (01:00:51):
Know wow, is that right?

Speaker 3 (01:00:52):
Well? I put this in, uh, just because I find
out it's quite interesting. So he has a sixty three
WRC plus and a close to forty strikeout rate in
spring training, so that would be not good. Yeah, I
think we can all agree that somebody we want to
do well who's hit the ball more times over one
hundred and ten miles an hour than anybody else in
spring training, John Kensy Noel, it's to Kenzy Nowell, he's

(01:01:15):
had five hit He's had five batted balls over one
hundred and ten miles an hour. Wow, he's had two
singles from those five balls that he's hit over one
hundred and ten miles an hour. So I kind of
put this in just to be like, there are different
stats that you can look at and you'll get a
completely different opinion on what this, like spring training has been.
He's absolutely mashing out of the ball, maybe a little

(01:01:37):
be too many grounders and also thing, but he's hit
a couple of line drives straight at shortstops at like
one hundred and fifty miles an hour and have been caught,
and so some people have been like, oh my god,
this is.

Speaker 4 (01:01:45):
I'm here and here is that John Kency, Noel, is
Joey Gallow.

Speaker 2 (01:01:50):
Going to say? We will light the white smoke and
you Joey Gallow has been chosen.

Speaker 4 (01:01:55):
And I think we've joe Gallow with a bad odp.

Speaker 3 (01:01:59):
My door know well, but just went so I think
we've timed this perfectly.

Speaker 1 (01:02:02):
Plase nowell heard you right? While you go and answer
the door. We can finish up this podcast. Thank you
guys for running us through it. I think good to
good to discuss some breakout candidates, maybe pour the cold
water on some overreactions to spring training performances.

Speaker 2 (01:02:18):
We will be back next week.

Speaker 1 (01:02:20):
I think we will have two podcasts next week, including
one very exciting interview that Rush recorded earlier this week,
so we'll let him maybe touch on that when he
gets back from answering a daughter John Kenzie, and we'll
also start with our predictions pods, so I think it
will be be Team Predictions next week is currently in
the plan, and then eighteen the week after, which obviously
will be after the season's officially begun, not opening day.

(01:02:42):
Not gonna make that mistake again, but yes, it will
be sort of thick and fastenal content front from us
going forward. I do also want to shout out the website.
Gavin team are doing a great job updateing the website
each day with new content. I know they're doing season
previews right now, I think team by team. I'm not
sure exactly how far through the thirty two as they are,
but they're making great headway on that. Lots of great

(01:03:03):
contributions from different guys on the site, so do you
make sure.

Speaker 2 (01:03:06):
You go and check that out.

Speaker 1 (01:03:08):
And we're also obviously making an effort to update our
socials more regularly, so do follow us at Backflips, Underscore
Nerds on Twitter, stroke x and Backflips and Nerds everywhere
else Instagram, Blue Sky, Facebook, TikTok, a lot of it,
So make sure you check out what we're doing there.
As you're bout now, Ros, I'll let you quickly tee
up your exciting interview.

Speaker 2 (01:03:28):
Is that coming out on Monday?

Speaker 3 (01:03:29):
Yes, you're coming out on Monday with our most seasoned guest.
We'll be making i think now their sixth appearance on
the podcast. So people who have listened to us for
a while might be able to work out who.

Speaker 1 (01:03:42):
That was there.

Speaker 2 (01:03:44):
We go exciting teaser anything writing, why is coming from you?

Speaker 3 (01:03:47):
Darius?

Speaker 2 (01:03:47):
People should be checking out for.

Speaker 3 (01:03:50):
No.

Speaker 4 (01:03:50):
I just want to shout out the great work. Yeah, okay,
what you said about the website, I believe we are
eight season previews through Gavin the team doing a terrific job.
Washington Nationals went up today, so yeah, lots of content
coming out, all sorts of different people writing for us.
Are really great to see people getting into it and
writing about their teams. So do go and check out
all of those previews, and yeah, use them to inform

(01:04:13):
you while you're listening along to our nonsense predictions.

Speaker 2 (01:04:15):
In a couple of weeks, Yeah, we probably need to.

Speaker 1 (01:04:20):
Message Tom and figure out if he's available for his
annual appearance on the podcast. I dare say we'll find
a way to make it work. But quite how much
he'll be offering from a baseball inside perspective.

Speaker 2 (01:04:30):
Is to be questions.

Speaker 1 (01:04:30):
So do you make sure you check out those previews
for slightly more expert opinion. But anyway, pleasure to chat
with you both this evening. Gents, Thank you for hopping
on and yes do stay tuned for our exciting podcast
on Monday.

Speaker 2 (01:04:42):
Thanks everyone, Bye,