September 19, 2025 • 39 mins
Seg 1 – Trump Approval and the Edge of Possibility
Seg 2 – The 2026 Ballots
Seg 3 – The Mamdani Polling Phenomenon
Seg 4 – A National Runaway Train?
Seg 2 – The 2026 Ballots
Seg 3 – The Mamdani Polling Phenomenon
Seg 4 – A National Runaway Train?
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The views and opinions expressed on the following program are
those of the host and guests and do not necessarily
represent those of any organization, including one generation away.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
No, that's what was free. Freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Of enterprise, and freedom is special and way.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
This is Liberty Nation with Markangelides, a production of Libertynation
dot Com, going after what the politicians really mean and
making it all clear for your freedom and your liberty.
Liberty Nation with Markangeldes.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Hello, well to Liberty Nation radio Head Coast Ghost on
the Radio America Network. I'm your host, Mark Angelides. We
are talking today on our special polling edition, every piece
of data and analysis you might need from President Trump's
job approval to the elections in New York later this year.
It's going to be quite the show. Please remember Liberty
Nation Radio sponsored by liberty Nation dot Com. You can
(00:55):
access podcast, breaking news analysis and a range of fighting
and predance shows to what Trapped for Freedom and you
foind us for the Great American Constitution. And you're on
Liberty Nation radio head Coast to Coast on the Radio
America Network. I'm your host, Mark Angelidi's We're joined by
a Liberty Nation seniora phytsical analyst and longtime host of
this here radio show, mister Tim Donna, thanks to coming
in to us today, Tim much appreciated.
Speaker 3 (01:16):
Always a pleasure mark for.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Those of our listeners and viewers who do frequent the
pages of Liberty Nation dot com, sponsor of this here
radio show. We are launching this weekend the Public Square
Liberty Nations Poll of Polls. It's quite quite a fantastic
bit of get up. It's going to have some great
information looked at in unique ways if you want to
(01:39):
know all the latest polling on what's happening in America,
and so, in honor of this momentous event, Tim, I
thought that we would devote today's show to talking about
the polls. Because you and I are we are firm
poll watchers, both of us. That's our first call in
the morning as we go and check out the different
polls and the aggregate numbers and stuff, because we want
(02:02):
to get I guess we want to get a feel
for where the country's going. Is there a trend that
we should be made aware or should become aware of?
And I guess the first and most important poll thing
that I want to discuss today, Tim, is President Trump's
job approval over to you?
Speaker 3 (02:20):
Well, I think the thing that stands out to me
about President Trump's job approval is that has remained remarkably steady.
There has not been big leaps and bounds and drops.
There hasn't been a lot of drama in watching Trump's
approval rating it. I think that's, you know, that's a
(02:44):
stark contrast, as you could add to Joe Biden, who
was over fifty percent approval or close to it right
through the summer of two thousand and twenty one, and
that with the Afghanistan withdrawal, he fell through the floor
(03:06):
and never recovered. His numbers dropped. His approval numbers dropped
by something like fifteen percent steadily after the Afghanistan debacle
and never recovered. And I think part of the difference
between Biden and Trump is that Biden was simply someone
(03:29):
that people voted for because he wasn't Trump. He had
no real distinct identity other than having been, you know,
on the public stage for a long time, whereas with Trump,
his support and his opposition has been hardened for the
longest time that you're not likely to see his numbers
(03:52):
waiver much from the current forty six percent, might go
up to forty eight, might go down to forty four,
but it's been very steady, and I think that's a
function of the fact that people knew what they were
getting with Trump. It didn't first time, they didn't in
twenty seventeen, but they do now.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Yeah, you point out that his average approval now is
around forty six percent. Mark. Now, if we look at
when he came back to office January this year, so
it was only on fifty So he was riding a
wave of approval on fifty and so everything that's happened,
if you believe the mainstream media, the end of the world,
(04:38):
America losing its standing on the world market's tariffs, terrorism,
and everything you can chase together. And it's four points,
which you know, four points is four points, and let's
Donald Rogers will say that's not nothing, but it's only
four points.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Well, let's be clear here too, with every president, even
Donald trun enjoy a honeymoon period become inaugurated, because there's
anywhere from five to ten percent of the country that
may not have voted for him, but it's actually hoping
that he's successful as a president and tends to look
(05:16):
at the half full glass rather than the half empty.
And it's only bit. It's only after a few weeks
or months in office that the hardcore opposition starts to
spread a little bit to those people that are skeptical.
So this is not at all surprising. I mean, the
fact that he was up around fifty or even higher,
(05:39):
I mean, we all had to know that was going
to be a temporary blitz oh yeah on the screen,
and indeed it was. And he came into this forty
six percent range about three months in the office, two
to three months in the office, and he's pretty much
remained there ever since. Even though left wing media loves
(05:59):
to do headlined Trump support plummeting, which means it went
from forty seven point two percent to forty six point
three percent, and they called that a plummet you know,
that's a little more marked than wishful thinking.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Yeah, they didn't put the Moniker plummets when Joe Biden
lost fifteen points overnight. No, they wasn't, Yeah, they didn't.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
They preferred to point out that he did what the
American people wanted and withdrew from Afghanistan. But that dog
never did hunt it really really didn't people.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Yeah, I love that phrase, by the way, that that
dog just didn't hunt, because it's it's so true, right,
that he did what the American people wanted. Sure, so
let's say, for example, Tim, I want you to to
not park your car in front of in front of
my driveway, so you park it in my living room.
But you did what I wanted you to do. It's
(06:57):
you know, there's there's a lot of forgiveness in if
you know what I mean. Yes, So that was that
was such a self inflicted wound by Joe Biden. And
I do wonder if if that hadn't happened, if we
would have had And I still think Donald Trump would
have won because all the economic conditions to bad conditions
would have been exactly the same. But I wonder if
(07:18):
Joe Biden would have stayed in the race, he hadn't
taken that beating that just knocked him down so much
and kept him at a low level of approval.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
Well, I think that, you know, his debate performance, which
settled all arguments about whether he had to copacity to
continue as president. I think Dave was settled. In late
June of twenty twenty four, people saw that he just
wasn't up to it. So I think in the end
(07:49):
that he would have had to withdraw anyway, because you
can only fake it for so long. But the point
is that he was already at a low ebb are
going into twenty twenty four, and then it only got
worse for them.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Okay, let's talk about Donald Trump's numbers in specific here
his approval his disapproval rating. So the the current average
if you you take all of the main polls for
the last month or so again and put those together
(08:26):
and divide them up, so you've got forty six percent
approval against fifty one point four percent disapproval, which is
a spread of five point minus five point four sorry,
five point four five point six percent five point four percent,
And so that's five point four And that seems that
that's kind of where we expect him to be, isn't it,
(08:47):
because he has he has very very strong support with
his base that there doesn't seem to be a lot
of wavering Maybe one or two points has come out
of that he's got I would say almost forty percent,
maybe a little more. On independence, would you say that's
quite fair?
Speaker 3 (09:09):
I think the independent vote is totally consistent with someone
who won't committee either the Republican or Democratic Party. They're freelance,
their wild cards. There's no way to know at any
given time what independence really are looking for other than
(09:31):
economic stability, peace, peace and prosperity. But when you get
into subjects like illegal immigration and deporting criminal aliens and
reducing the size of the federal government, these things are
by their very nature highly controversial and can he easily
(09:55):
be spun by a big media into well, he's firing
federal workers indiscriminately, he's getting rid of important programs. And
the average person who doesn't obsess about politics like you
and I do, Mark, they don't have the time to
look into deep into these matters as to whether they
(10:18):
support them or not. So people tend to make their
decisions about supporting or not supporting a policy based on,
you know, a very limited amount of information that is
spun against Trump universally. It's no, it's not exactly headline
news that over ninety percent of the coverage of Donald
(10:41):
Trump in big media is negative, over ninety percent, and
it's been that way for the last decade. So frankly,
you can look at his forty six percent, Mark and say,
you know, that's pretty much the same as Barack Obama
(11:02):
over the course of his presidency after he had a
longer honeymoon because of course he was lion noted by
the media, but when it all came down, his approval
rating really hovered around forty six percent, just like Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Absolutely right. So now we're going to continue our took
on polling when we get back after this shortbreak. Don't
go anywhere.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
For your freedom and your liberty. Liberty Nation with Mark Edgelities.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
And you're back on Limity Nation Radio head Coast Coast
on the Radio America Network. I remain your host, Mark
Antley's and we continue our conversation with longtime host of
this here radio show and Limity Nations senior political analyst.
They're one and the same person, mister Tim donnod. Thanks
for sticking around.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
Tim, always good to be here in carry on with
our fascinating conversation, at least fascinating you and me.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
It's an eight year it's a fully it's an eight
year conversation we've been having here too up polling, so
there's no signs of stopping just yet. So for those
listeners who have just tuned in. We are talking polling
on this special edition shows. Liberty Nation has its brand
new the Public Square Polling launching this weekend. It's great
for data, information, graphics, everything you need plus analysis in
(12:31):
one place. Please do check that out on the payers
of Liberty Nation dot com. Earlier in the show, we
were talking Donald Trump's approval rating, which is the big
kahuna of the polling world. I think even when he's
out of office, it's the big kahuna. But Tim, let's
get a little more granular and let's talk about the
the twenty twenty six generic congressional vote. So what that
(12:52):
is for people who don't squander their lives following politics
and polling like Tim and I, Well, that essentially is,
we have the twenty twenty six midterms coming up next year.
Which party are you voting for? Republican or Democrat? That's
the question, and what are the results? To him?
Speaker 3 (13:16):
Well, I would argue that midterm elections during the era
of Donald Trump are more volatile than any in my
lifetime because of the fact that midterm elections, by their definition,
are grievance elections. Midterm elections are those in which the
(13:39):
people who don't like what happened two years before, who
don't like the incumbent, who don't like the party in power,
will show up in greater numbers. And you know, the
Trump people. Trump voters have been largely kind of fat
and happy since not only Trump one, but the Republicans
(14:04):
won control of both the House and the Senate. So
they're kind of fat and happy and quite satisfied with
how Trump has performed. But the grievances on the other
side are of course legendary, as most epitomized by the
three assassination attempts to on Trump and then the successful
one against Charlie Kirk. So I mean, the party out
(14:28):
of power generically has a huge advantage in midterm elections
because the people that are dissatisfied, what do they do?
People that are angry, they vote. People that are satisfied
don't tend to vote as much. But it's also true
(14:49):
that the Republican Party with Donald Trump on the ballot
as in presidential election years, is a totally different animal
then the Republican Party where Trump is not the ballot.
The Republican Party writ large, if you stripped Trump away
(15:10):
from it, who knows how popular they might be, but
I think that I'm not surprised that Democrats have a
slight advantage in the generic ballot. And I'll tell you
the truth, if they can win control of at least
one of the branches of Congress in twenty twenty six,
(15:31):
they are any even deeper trouble than we thought they were.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
Yeah, very much so. So just to give a number
to that, the average is about three percent up across
the board. Now that there's a couple of caveats there, Tim,
that I think we should go into. Is one is
that these polls they're conducted spread across the country. Okay,
So the second part there, Tim, is that in the
(15:56):
last of the midterms twenty twenty two, Democrats really have
this major cudgel with which to beat their own voters
and to try and scare of Republican votes, I guess,
and that was the overturning of Roe v. Wade, made
possible by Donald Trump's nomination of three Supreme Court justices
(16:16):
during his first term. And I'm wondering, do they have
a specific political weapon of the same vein that can
be employed for twenty twenty six or is it just
going to be a general throw it all against the
wall and see what sticks.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Well, you know, mid terminal elections, in addition to being
grievance elections, they are also issue elections much more than presidentials.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
So the.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
Dubbs decision're not returning Roe versus Way was a very
animating factor in twenty twenty two. Trump was not in
the ballot, nor was Biden. It was an issue election
and us it's not surprising that the Democrats came so
close to you know, taking control of the House and
(17:13):
Joe Biden would have been wise to quit. Then well
it was ahead. But that's that's a different discussion. The
mistake that the Democrats made was to think that the
Doves decision the abortion issue would carry over effectively from
twenty twenty two to twenty twenty four, which led them
(17:35):
to a totally woman based campaign at the expense of
the mail vote, and we all saw how that turned out.
The vote among men was a you know as a
sword right through the heart of the Democratic Party. So
I don't see any issue right now that the Democrats
(18:00):
can hammer on a single issue. But I do see
where if we are facing a possible recession or inflation
again rears its ugly head. Or Trump, you know, ventures
into what disasters, military engagement. Those are prospective things that
(18:28):
we'll get voters to the polls and vote against Republicans.
But none of that stuff is true right now, unlike
in twenty twenty two when you knew that Republicans were
girding their loins for the blowback against the overturning of
Roe versus Weight.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
We'll be watching the weather vans, audience, don't go anywhere.
We'll be back talking more polling after the showbreaker. No,
that's what was free. Freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom.
Speaker 3 (19:04):
Of enterprise, and freedom is special and rate.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
This is Liberty Nation with Markangeledes, a production of Libertynation
dot com, going after what the politicians really mean and
making it all clear for your freedom and your liberty.
Liberty Nation with Markangeledes.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
And you're back on libutin Nation Radio. Remain Mark Andreeleidi's
We're continuing our talk on polling with Liberty Nations. Senia
political analyst and longtime host this isshow mister Tim donough,
Thanks for sticking around. Tim. Now just to queue in
our audience who maybe are just joining us now or
just watching this segment. We've been discussing the big polling
(19:44):
that's been taking place. In honor of Liberty Nation is
launching its very own the Public Square Polling Analysis Center
this weekend. Do go to libt Nation dot com and
check that out now. Tim earlier, we talked President Trump's
job approval, which many see I certainly see it as
(20:05):
one of the biggest and most important polling trends that
we can watch as political watchers. But some would argue,
and they might not be wrong, that the most important
polling to watch right now is what's happening in a
little place called New York City. What's say it's him.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Well, the Democratic Party has a terrible problem, and his
name is Zurindani because of the fact that he is
a self proclaimed Democratic socialist, which essentially means he's a socialist,
which essentially means, in the eyes of Donald Trump and others,
(20:47):
he leans towards communists. Basically collectivism. Let's call it electivism
because it sort of covers the waterfront. It's a good
umbrella term. And you know, people in the Democratic Party
and among Republicans, conservatives, liberals are kind of stunned that
(21:10):
Zor Mamdani not only one a landslide victory over Andrew
Cuomo and others in the Democratic primary in Manhattan. But
the fact that he seems to have an insurmountable lead
to win the general election, even perhaps if two of
(21:31):
the other three candidates drop out, I'm still not sure
that he would be beaten. So everybody was shocked, but
you know what, mark they shouldn't be, because we have
some good information from a couple of polls, one of
them conducted by a left wing outlet and the others
(21:53):
more mainstream, showing that almost two thirds of Democrats say
that they are open to socialism and prefer it to capitalism.
Think about that. Basically, almost two thirds of Democrats identify
(22:16):
more with socialism than with capitalism. And so he really
shouldn't be surprised that Zora Undone is as popular as
he is. You know, he's also a well polished candidate.
He smiles well, he does good political commercials. He can
(22:37):
even engage in fairly decent self deprecating humor. You know,
he's an attractive public candidate because he presents very well
to young people. But his popularity and the fact that
he's going to win this election presents it just an
(22:58):
almost insurmount problem for Democrats because the rest of the
country Republicans and independents, which account for about two thirds
of the electorate, figuring Republicans and Democrats are roughly equal equal,
but are outnumbered by independents who are more than forty
presented the you know if it's about forty Yeah, it's
(23:22):
about forty thirty thirty. Now, kathycle the governor of New York, finally,
in the most tortured way, finally begrudgingly decided to endorse
Mamdani because I think for her it was a lesser
of two evils. She wanted to be seen as a
team player. But if Schumer and Jeffries come out and
(23:46):
endorse him, then they know perfectly well that the Republicans
will run those endorsements, will run the Mamdani extremism around
the clock in the midterms. And so it's a terrible
conundrum for them, and it's one they have yet to
figure out. But you know what, the fact that the
(24:09):
Democrats have bowed to the most progressive radical wing of
their party, those are chickens that are coming home to
roost because now they've convinced enough Democrats that's socialism is
a way to go, and this is a disaster going forward.
And you know, so called mainstream Democrats recognize that when
(24:32):
they ran Bernice Sanders out of the presidential primary not once,
but twice.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Yeah, it's the kiss of death nationally, but it works
well in small pockets. For example, New York City. It's
probably one of only two, maybe three places in the
country that could get away with running a candidate like that.
Speaker 3 (24:55):
And the fact that it's isolated this year because the
year after a presidential election is the least important show
where has the least number of national racists by par
so the few that there are.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
Jack hits are any Once away, there he is on
the whole enormous attention.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
So of Mamdani was running in twenty twenty eight, he'd
be sort of a footnote because there's so many other races.
But here he is front and center. It's races front center.
You've got You've got gubernatorial races in Virginia, and I'm
sure other than those two there is no national spotlight
(25:38):
on anyone but Mamdanie in the New York City mayoral race.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
I wonder if Governor Kathy Hokul's endorsement of Mandani was
what was the right way to say this without being
insulting anyway, if it was thirty pieces of silver more
than anything else, because she's got a race coming up
at some point as well, and early indicates that I
(26:06):
think it's Stephanic. It will be challenging her for the
Governor's mansion.
Speaker 3 (26:13):
Representative from New York.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
Yes, and Mamdani. Mamdani has as you pointed out, he's
very polished. He has a great social media game and
it's really great. It's like it it's like his mother,
the internationally renowned film director, actually taught him a couple
of things about how to put some nice polish on
(26:35):
some videos and things. And I'm wondering if the endorsement
didn't come with a with a little bill there, a
little prize tag, and that price tag is you've got
to boost me to the rest of the state. You know,
you've got to push for me in return from my
support for you. And now this is the kind of
thing that happens in politics all the time. I can't
(26:58):
get that the a whiff of the some quid pro
quo going on there? Or do I have this wrong?
Speaker 3 (27:05):
No, of course, there's always quid pro quo in politics,
and who knows what the quid or the quo are.
But I think what Kathy Hope is trying to do
is what some of us call putting lipstick on a pig.
It's still a pig, but you can put lipstick on
(27:25):
it to make it look good and appear good. And
I think if hocel smart, what she would have tried
to get in return is for him to promise not
to pursue his most radical policies, to rethink, you know,
laying more taxes on the geese that have laid the
(27:46):
golden eggs in New York, the corporations and the wealthy
who pay an outside share of taxes, who would be
driven out of New York if I'm Donnie is elected,
So I think maybe I'm sure he'll he'll endorse her
next year in her run for re election. Is that
(28:12):
something she really wants? I'm not sure about that, because
outside of New York City and Buffalo and to some
degree Albany, New York is actually a very conservative state.
You go Upstate New York and Central New York and
Western New York and for the most part it's Republican leaning.
(28:34):
So I don't know that. I think maybe it might
be the opposite to me. Yeah, well he might have said,
I'll endorse you, Okle says to Mom donn He I'll
endorse you, but you've got to promise not to endorse me.
It couldn't be that, because yeah, it's the thing to
(28:56):
anyone outside.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
Of New York.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Mom, Donnie is poisoned out in New York City.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
So let's just dig quickly into the numbers before wrapping
this up. So, an average of polling I think has
Zara Mamdami ahead, assuming Andrew Cuomo, Curtis Sliwa, and Eric
Adams run. He's got an eighteen plus point lead on
(29:22):
average at the moment, which is his kind of insurmountable.
Do you think that all four of those candidates will
be campaigning come November.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
Well, I think the wild card in the race at
this point is Andrew Cuomo, who I have to say,
it was stunning to me how totally ineffectual he was
in his primary run against Mamdani. He looks like a
spent force. He looks old, he looks tired, he looks
(29:56):
like it has been to be totally honest with you,
and so so given that it's not surprising that he
was beaten so badly by this, you know, thirty year
old upstart that nobody had ever heard of, who calls
himself a socialist. He's the wild card in the sense
that can he somehow consolidate the anti Mamdani voue? Can
(30:19):
he scare enough people into not voting for Mamdanni in
order to come from way behind and win the selection.
The truth is there's not a chance in the world
he can do that if at least Mayor Adams or
(30:40):
the Republican candidate Courtius Lee will drop out and Sleeve
whis basically said no. He has a pretty big vote
share too, of about twenty percent. Slee Wah says he
won't drop out because he's raised a lot of money.
What he says is, I don't want to give this
money back. I was given this money to run and
(31:01):
I'm going to run now. Uh A mirror Adams. You see,
he's played foot seat with a Trump administration a bit,
maybe talking about getting in a point and as an
ambassador or something. But Eric Adams is in single digits. Yeah,
so that won't do it. Womo I think has no
(31:22):
intention of dropping out, So then the only chance is
to courteously what changes its mind. But at this point,
you know, the odds have to be at about ninety
percent that Mom Donnie, yeah, we'll be next mayor of
New York.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Yeah, it would take a very extreme coalition of the
unwilling to yes together. And even if you add all
those up, you're probably talking what forty six percent or
something against Mam Dami's forty three to forty four.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Well, there's been a couple of polls that came out,
or at least one that said even if Adams and
Sliwad drive out, Mom Donnie would still beat Andrew Cuoma.
So take those posts.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
Yeah, yeah, I think the New York Times Siena, if
you tally up the three, I think it was exactly
the same that they got the you know, the all
three of the Sliewa, Adams, and Cuoma all three together,
same as ma'am Donny.
Speaker 3 (32:21):
But yes, right, it's true those the three, the three
other candidates total is the same as Mom Donnie would
never take a point or two.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
It's it's it's his race to win h and New
York's experiment with socialism to find out what happens there,
and we'll be watching it on the page of the libt
Nation dot com, especially on a Public Square poling extravaganza.
We'll be back with Tim after this shortbreak. Don't go anywhere.
Speaker 1 (32:55):
For your freedom and your liberty. Liberty Nation with Mark, ladies.
Speaker 2 (33:01):
And you're back on libut Nation Radio. Remain Mark andeleti's
continue our conversation with longtime host of this here radio show,
Liberty Nation, senapits glalyst, mister Tim darn and Tim and
our dear audience. We've been discussing polling in light of
the new Macy's version of the Public Square that's opening
up on the pages of libtinnation dot com this week,
(33:24):
where we'll be examining all the different polling give you
some great graphics and great analysis on all the big
races that are coming down the pipeline. And so we've
already discussed President Trump's job approvals. We've discussed the generic
congressional ballot for twenty twenty six. We've discussed probably the
most important race this year, the Mamdani contest. I hesitate
(33:47):
to call it an actual contest, but Ma'mdani's coronation in
New York. Although, of course being a socialist he might
refuse the crown.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
No royalty, no king did states.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
I didn't. I did love watching the coverage of Donald
Trump in the United Kingdom because even though it's it's
all very much no kings, you guys sure do love
a bit of pomp and circumstance. The amount of coverage
of Trump's visit to the United Kingdom and the State
Bank it was was quite stung to watch, and I
(34:25):
like it. I love the pump and circumstance. Please do
check out the photo journal that we have on the
pages of Liberty Nation dot com. So let's talk about
the final quarter of what I think of the most
important polling segments to watch, and that is the Right
Direction Wrong Track. Now, for those of our listeners reviews
(34:46):
who aren't familiar with what that is, that's really a
what would you say, Tim, It's it's a poll of sentiment.
Do people think the country's going in the right direction
or do they think this national train is on the
wrong track? Entirely? Give us the tells.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
Well, I think that what this is is a poll
about optimism. Yes, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the
country going forward into the future? As far as you
can see, it or surmise it. And I think that's
why it's particularly useful, because politicians make decisions that make
(35:24):
them more or less popular. Politicians have good weeks and
bad weeks. Parties win elections and lose elections. But the
direction of the country tends to strip out the pure
partisanship involved in things like Trump approval ratings and generic
(35:45):
congressional ballot and boils it down to his basics. And
I think really the most startling contrast in pivoting from
the Biden presidency to the Trump residency the second Trump
presidency is the really dramatic increase in a number of
(36:07):
people who feel the country's moving in the right direction.
It was below thirty with Joe Biden when he left office,
and it was above forty with Donald Trump after two
or three months in the oval office. And this, to
me is the most reflective of I would say, you know,
(36:29):
the most powerful of all the polling, because it tends,
to the greatest extent possible strip away the pure partisanship.
And so someone on the life can say they liked
the direction of the country even though they didn't vote
for Trump, and people on the right can say I
voted for Trump but I don't like the direction of
the country, and the name Trump or Biden or anybody
(36:52):
else doesn't enter into it. And I think looking at
that look it's sort of like the approval of presidents.
It never goes above fifty percent. I've never as seen
the direction of the country be above fifty percent, no
matter who was in the office, Bush, Obama, Biden, Trump,
(37:14):
It's never really been above fifty percent. So if you
can come close to fifty, you're doing well. And Trump
has been in the forties. Now we'll track that very closely,
of course.
Speaker 2 (37:26):
Yeah, it's as you say, it is very much about optimism,
and I think I think part of what goes into
this particular of polling is very much what's happening economically.
So people consider their wallets and they consider their their
job and business prospects depending on if they're employed is
self employed, and they look at these things and they think,
(37:49):
am I happy to be expanding my business in the
coming year, And if they think conditions are right, that's
a very optimistic sentiment, and they'll probably go for Yeah,
the country is on the right track. Because we say
the country, what we really mean is are things on
the right track? For me, and that's what it all
comes down to. Yes, it's the individual, although if you're
(38:11):
in New York you might say, hey, but what about
the collective? What about the socialist collector the collected?
Speaker 3 (38:17):
Its mindset?
Speaker 2 (38:19):
Tim, final word on this, do you think that coming
into the twenty twenty six midterms that the direction of
the country data will be going up or down from
where it is now? Final word?
Speaker 3 (38:29):
Well, I think it all depends on the direction of
the economy. If we get economic growth that pushes up
towards three percent percent, the jobs numbers improve, the number
of people in the workforce, that's a critical yeah factor.
If that increases, I think you're going to get my census,
(38:50):
you're going to get that same general sense of economic
well being that people had during Trump's first term when
in February twenty twenty it looked like Trump would be
on a glide path to real action until the pandemic
came along, And most of that was because of the
strength of the economy. So it all pivots on the economy.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
Tim Donner, thanks every so much for joining us.
Speaker 3 (39:18):
Had a great time, Mark.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
Thanks, and that's what we have time for. On this
week's listen, of Limutin Nation, radio head coast to coast,
and the Radio American Network. I've been your host, Mark
Antleoni's I'd like to thank our guest today, Tim Donner,
senior political analyst over at limitinnation dot com, and you
the listeners who take the time each week to tune
in and join us. Please do remember to go and
check out libertin Nation's brand new polling, the Public Square
over on the website. And Limbity Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns,
(39:42):
or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement
The views and opinions expressed on the following program are
those of the host and guests and do not necessarily
represent those of any organization, including one generation away.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
No, that's what was free. Freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Of enterprise, and freedom is special and way.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
This is Liberty Nation with Markangelides, a production of Libertynation
dot Com, going after what the politicians really mean and
making it all clear for your freedom and your liberty.
Liberty Nation with Markangeldes.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Hello, well to Liberty Nation radio Head Coast Ghost on
the Radio America Network. I'm your host, Mark Angelides. We
are talking today on our special polling edition, every piece
of data and analysis you might need from President Trump's
job approval to the elections in New York later this year.
It's going to be quite the show. Please remember Liberty
Nation Radio sponsored by liberty Nation dot Com. You can
(00:55):
access podcast, breaking news analysis and a range of fighting
and predance shows to what Trapped for Freedom and you
foind us for the Great American Constitution. And you're on
Liberty Nation radio head Coast to Coast on the Radio
America Network. I'm your host, Mark Angelidi's We're joined by
a Liberty Nation seniora phytsical analyst and longtime host of
this here radio show, mister Tim Donna, thanks to coming
in to us today, Tim much appreciated.
Speaker 3 (01:16):
Always a pleasure mark for.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Those of our listeners and viewers who do frequent the
pages of Liberty Nation dot com, sponsor of this here
radio show. We are launching this weekend the Public Square
Liberty Nations Poll of Polls. It's quite quite a fantastic
bit of get up. It's going to have some great
information looked at in unique ways if you want to
(01:39):
know all the latest polling on what's happening in America,
and so, in honor of this momentous event, Tim, I
thought that we would devote today's show to talking about
the polls. Because you and I are we are firm
poll watchers, both of us. That's our first call in
the morning as we go and check out the different
polls and the aggregate numbers and stuff, because we want
(02:02):
to get I guess we want to get a feel
for where the country's going. Is there a trend that
we should be made aware or should become aware of?
And I guess the first and most important poll thing
that I want to discuss today, Tim, is President Trump's
job approval over to you?
Speaker 3 (02:20):
Well, I think the thing that stands out to me
about President Trump's job approval is that has remained remarkably steady.
There has not been big leaps and bounds and drops.
There hasn't been a lot of drama in watching Trump's
approval rating it. I think that's, you know, that's a
(02:44):
stark contrast, as you could add to Joe Biden, who
was over fifty percent approval or close to it right
through the summer of two thousand and twenty one, and
that with the Afghanistan withdrawal, he fell through the floor
(03:06):
and never recovered. His numbers dropped. His approval numbers dropped
by something like fifteen percent steadily after the Afghanistan debacle
and never recovered. And I think part of the difference
between Biden and Trump is that Biden was simply someone
(03:29):
that people voted for because he wasn't Trump. He had
no real distinct identity other than having been, you know,
on the public stage for a long time, whereas with Trump,
his support and his opposition has been hardened for the
longest time that you're not likely to see his numbers
(03:52):
waiver much from the current forty six percent, might go
up to forty eight, might go down to forty four,
but it's been very steady, and I think that's a
function of the fact that people knew what they were
getting with Trump. It didn't first time, they didn't in
twenty seventeen, but they do now.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Yeah, you point out that his average approval now is
around forty six percent. Mark. Now, if we look at
when he came back to office January this year, so
it was only on fifty So he was riding a
wave of approval on fifty and so everything that's happened,
if you believe the mainstream media, the end of the world,
(04:38):
America losing its standing on the world market's tariffs, terrorism,
and everything you can chase together. And it's four points,
which you know, four points is four points, and let's
Donald Rogers will say that's not nothing, but it's only
four points.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Well, let's be clear here too, with every president, even
Donald trun enjoy a honeymoon period become inaugurated, because there's
anywhere from five to ten percent of the country that
may not have voted for him, but it's actually hoping
that he's successful as a president and tends to look
(05:16):
at the half full glass rather than the half empty.
And it's only bit. It's only after a few weeks
or months in office that the hardcore opposition starts to
spread a little bit to those people that are skeptical.
So this is not at all surprising. I mean, the
fact that he was up around fifty or even higher,
(05:39):
I mean, we all had to know that was going
to be a temporary blitz oh yeah on the screen,
and indeed it was. And he came into this forty
six percent range about three months in the office, two
to three months in the office, and he's pretty much
remained there ever since. Even though left wing media loves
(05:59):
to do headlined Trump support plummeting, which means it went
from forty seven point two percent to forty six point
three percent, and they called that a plummet you know,
that's a little more marked than wishful thinking.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Yeah, they didn't put the Moniker plummets when Joe Biden
lost fifteen points overnight. No, they wasn't, Yeah, they didn't.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
They preferred to point out that he did what the
American people wanted and withdrew from Afghanistan. But that dog
never did hunt it really really didn't people.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Yeah, I love that phrase, by the way, that that
dog just didn't hunt, because it's it's so true, right,
that he did what the American people wanted. Sure, so
let's say, for example, Tim, I want you to to
not park your car in front of in front of
my driveway, so you park it in my living room.
But you did what I wanted you to do. It's
(06:57):
you know, there's there's a lot of forgiveness in if
you know what I mean. Yes, So that was that
was such a self inflicted wound by Joe Biden. And
I do wonder if if that hadn't happened, if we
would have had And I still think Donald Trump would
have won because all the economic conditions to bad conditions
would have been exactly the same. But I wonder if
(07:18):
Joe Biden would have stayed in the race, he hadn't
taken that beating that just knocked him down so much
and kept him at a low level of approval.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
Well, I think that, you know, his debate performance, which
settled all arguments about whether he had to copacity to
continue as president. I think Dave was settled. In late
June of twenty twenty four, people saw that he just
wasn't up to it. So I think in the end
(07:49):
that he would have had to withdraw anyway, because you
can only fake it for so long. But the point
is that he was already at a low ebb are
going into twenty twenty four, and then it only got
worse for them.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Okay, let's talk about Donald Trump's numbers in specific here
his approval his disapproval rating. So the the current average
if you you take all of the main polls for
the last month or so again and put those together
(08:26):
and divide them up, so you've got forty six percent
approval against fifty one point four percent disapproval, which is
a spread of five point minus five point four sorry,
five point four five point six percent five point four percent,
And so that's five point four And that seems that
that's kind of where we expect him to be, isn't it,
(08:47):
because he has he has very very strong support with
his base that there doesn't seem to be a lot
of wavering Maybe one or two points has come out
of that he's got I would say almost forty percent,
maybe a little more. On independence, would you say that's
quite fair?
Speaker 3 (09:09):
I think the independent vote is totally consistent with someone
who won't committee either the Republican or Democratic Party. They're freelance,
their wild cards. There's no way to know at any
given time what independence really are looking for other than
(09:31):
economic stability, peace, peace and prosperity. But when you get
into subjects like illegal immigration and deporting criminal aliens and
reducing the size of the federal government, these things are
by their very nature highly controversial and can he easily
(09:55):
be spun by a big media into well, he's firing
federal workers indiscriminately, he's getting rid of important programs. And
the average person who doesn't obsess about politics like you
and I do, Mark, they don't have the time to
look into deep into these matters as to whether they
(10:18):
support them or not. So people tend to make their
decisions about supporting or not supporting a policy based on,
you know, a very limited amount of information that is
spun against Trump universally. It's no, it's not exactly headline
news that over ninety percent of the coverage of Donald
(10:41):
Trump in big media is negative, over ninety percent, and
it's been that way for the last decade. So frankly,
you can look at his forty six percent, Mark and say,
you know, that's pretty much the same as Barack Obama
(11:02):
over the course of his presidency after he had a
longer honeymoon because of course he was lion noted by
the media, but when it all came down, his approval
rating really hovered around forty six percent, just like Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Absolutely right. So now we're going to continue our took
on polling when we get back after this shortbreak. Don't
go anywhere.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
For your freedom and your liberty. Liberty Nation with Mark Edgelities.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
And you're back on Limity Nation Radio head Coast Coast
on the Radio America Network. I remain your host, Mark
Antley's and we continue our conversation with longtime host of
this here radio show and Limity Nations senior political analyst.
They're one and the same person, mister Tim donnod. Thanks
for sticking around.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
Tim, always good to be here in carry on with
our fascinating conversation, at least fascinating you and me.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
It's an eight year it's a fully it's an eight
year conversation we've been having here too up polling, so
there's no signs of stopping just yet. So for those
listeners who have just tuned in. We are talking polling
on this special edition shows. Liberty Nation has its brand
new the Public Square Polling launching this weekend. It's great
for data, information, graphics, everything you need plus analysis in
(12:31):
one place. Please do check that out on the payers
of Liberty Nation dot com. Earlier in the show, we
were talking Donald Trump's approval rating, which is the big
kahuna of the polling world. I think even when he's
out of office, it's the big kahuna. But Tim, let's
get a little more granular and let's talk about the
the twenty twenty six generic congressional vote. So what that
(12:52):
is for people who don't squander their lives following politics
and polling like Tim and I, Well, that essentially is,
we have the twenty twenty six midterms coming up next year.
Which party are you voting for? Republican or Democrat? That's
the question, and what are the results? To him?
Speaker 3 (13:16):
Well, I would argue that midterm elections during the era
of Donald Trump are more volatile than any in my
lifetime because of the fact that midterm elections, by their definition,
are grievance elections. Midterm elections are those in which the
(13:39):
people who don't like what happened two years before, who
don't like the incumbent, who don't like the party in power,
will show up in greater numbers. And you know, the
Trump people. Trump voters have been largely kind of fat
and happy since not only Trump one, but the Republicans
(14:04):
won control of both the House and the Senate. So
they're kind of fat and happy and quite satisfied with
how Trump has performed. But the grievances on the other
side are of course legendary, as most epitomized by the
three assassination attempts to on Trump and then the successful
one against Charlie Kirk. So I mean, the party out
(14:28):
of power generically has a huge advantage in midterm elections
because the people that are dissatisfied, what do they do?
People that are angry, they vote. People that are satisfied
don't tend to vote as much. But it's also true
(14:49):
that the Republican Party with Donald Trump on the ballot
as in presidential election years, is a totally different animal
then the Republican Party where Trump is not the ballot.
The Republican Party writ large, if you stripped Trump away
(15:10):
from it, who knows how popular they might be, but
I think that I'm not surprised that Democrats have a
slight advantage in the generic ballot. And I'll tell you
the truth, if they can win control of at least
one of the branches of Congress in twenty twenty six,
(15:31):
they are any even deeper trouble than we thought they were.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
Yeah, very much so. So just to give a number
to that, the average is about three percent up across
the board. Now that there's a couple of caveats there, Tim,
that I think we should go into. Is one is
that these polls they're conducted spread across the country. Okay,
So the second part there, Tim, is that in the
(15:56):
last of the midterms twenty twenty two, Democrats really have
this major cudgel with which to beat their own voters
and to try and scare of Republican votes, I guess,
and that was the overturning of Roe v. Wade, made
possible by Donald Trump's nomination of three Supreme Court justices
(16:16):
during his first term. And I'm wondering, do they have
a specific political weapon of the same vein that can
be employed for twenty twenty six or is it just
going to be a general throw it all against the
wall and see what sticks.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Well, you know, mid terminal elections, in addition to being
grievance elections, they are also issue elections much more than presidentials.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
So the.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
Dubbs decision're not returning Roe versus Way was a very
animating factor in twenty twenty two. Trump was not in
the ballot, nor was Biden. It was an issue election
and us it's not surprising that the Democrats came so
close to you know, taking control of the House and
(17:13):
Joe Biden would have been wise to quit. Then well
it was ahead. But that's that's a different discussion. The
mistake that the Democrats made was to think that the
Doves decision the abortion issue would carry over effectively from
twenty twenty two to twenty twenty four, which led them
(17:35):
to a totally woman based campaign at the expense of
the mail vote, and we all saw how that turned out.
The vote among men was a you know as a
sword right through the heart of the Democratic Party. So
I don't see any issue right now that the Democrats
(18:00):
can hammer on a single issue. But I do see
where if we are facing a possible recession or inflation
again rears its ugly head. Or Trump, you know, ventures
into what disasters, military engagement. Those are prospective things that
(18:28):
we'll get voters to the polls and vote against Republicans.
But none of that stuff is true right now, unlike
in twenty twenty two when you knew that Republicans were
girding their loins for the blowback against the overturning of
Roe versus Weight.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
We'll be watching the weather vans, audience, don't go anywhere.
We'll be back talking more polling after the showbreaker. No,
that's what was free. Freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom.
Speaker 3 (19:04):
Of enterprise, and freedom is special and rate.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
This is Liberty Nation with Markangeledes, a production of Libertynation
dot com, going after what the politicians really mean and
making it all clear for your freedom and your liberty.
Liberty Nation with Markangeledes.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
And you're back on libutin Nation Radio. Remain Mark Andreeleidi's
We're continuing our talk on polling with Liberty Nations. Senia
political analyst and longtime host this isshow mister Tim donough,
Thanks for sticking around. Tim. Now just to queue in
our audience who maybe are just joining us now or
just watching this segment. We've been discussing the big polling
(19:44):
that's been taking place. In honor of Liberty Nation is
launching its very own the Public Square Polling Analysis Center
this weekend. Do go to libt Nation dot com and
check that out now. Tim earlier, we talked President Trump's
job approval, which many see I certainly see it as
(20:05):
one of the biggest and most important polling trends that
we can watch as political watchers. But some would argue,
and they might not be wrong, that the most important
polling to watch right now is what's happening in a
little place called New York City. What's say it's him.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Well, the Democratic Party has a terrible problem, and his
name is Zurindani because of the fact that he is
a self proclaimed Democratic socialist, which essentially means he's a socialist,
which essentially means, in the eyes of Donald Trump and others,
(20:47):
he leans towards communists. Basically collectivism. Let's call it electivism
because it sort of covers the waterfront. It's a good
umbrella term. And you know, people in the Democratic Party
and among Republicans, conservatives, liberals are kind of stunned that
(21:10):
Zor Mamdani not only one a landslide victory over Andrew
Cuomo and others in the Democratic primary in Manhattan. But
the fact that he seems to have an insurmountable lead
to win the general election, even perhaps if two of
(21:31):
the other three candidates drop out, I'm still not sure
that he would be beaten. So everybody was shocked, but
you know what, mark they shouldn't be, because we have
some good information from a couple of polls, one of
them conducted by a left wing outlet and the others
(21:53):
more mainstream, showing that almost two thirds of Democrats say
that they are open to socialism and prefer it to capitalism.
Think about that. Basically, almost two thirds of Democrats identify
(22:16):
more with socialism than with capitalism. And so he really
shouldn't be surprised that Zora Undone is as popular as
he is. You know, he's also a well polished candidate.
He smiles well, he does good political commercials. He can
(22:37):
even engage in fairly decent self deprecating humor. You know,
he's an attractive public candidate because he presents very well
to young people. But his popularity and the fact that
he's going to win this election presents it just an
(22:58):
almost insurmount problem for Democrats because the rest of the
country Republicans and independents, which account for about two thirds
of the electorate, figuring Republicans and Democrats are roughly equal equal,
but are outnumbered by independents who are more than forty
presented the you know if it's about forty Yeah, it's
(23:22):
about forty thirty thirty. Now, kathycle the governor of New York, finally,
in the most tortured way, finally begrudgingly decided to endorse
Mamdani because I think for her it was a lesser
of two evils. She wanted to be seen as a
team player. But if Schumer and Jeffries come out and
(23:46):
endorse him, then they know perfectly well that the Republicans
will run those endorsements, will run the Mamdani extremism around
the clock in the midterms. And so it's a terrible
conundrum for them, and it's one they have yet to
figure out. But you know what, the fact that the
(24:09):
Democrats have bowed to the most progressive radical wing of
their party, those are chickens that are coming home to
roost because now they've convinced enough Democrats that's socialism is
a way to go, and this is a disaster going forward.
And you know, so called mainstream Democrats recognize that when
(24:32):
they ran Bernice Sanders out of the presidential primary not once,
but twice.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Yeah, it's the kiss of death nationally, but it works
well in small pockets. For example, New York City. It's
probably one of only two, maybe three places in the
country that could get away with running a candidate like that.
Speaker 3 (24:55):
And the fact that it's isolated this year because the
year after a presidential election is the least important show
where has the least number of national racists by par
so the few that there are.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
Jack hits are any Once away, there he is on
the whole enormous attention.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
So of Mamdani was running in twenty twenty eight, he'd
be sort of a footnote because there's so many other races.
But here he is front and center. It's races front center.
You've got You've got gubernatorial races in Virginia, and I'm
sure other than those two there is no national spotlight
(25:38):
on anyone but Mamdanie in the New York City mayoral race.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
I wonder if Governor Kathy Hokul's endorsement of Mandani was
what was the right way to say this without being
insulting anyway, if it was thirty pieces of silver more
than anything else, because she's got a race coming up
at some point as well, and early indicates that I
(26:06):
think it's Stephanic. It will be challenging her for the
Governor's mansion.
Speaker 3 (26:13):
Representative from New York.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
Yes, and Mamdani. Mamdani has as you pointed out, he's
very polished. He has a great social media game and
it's really great. It's like it it's like his mother,
the internationally renowned film director, actually taught him a couple
of things about how to put some nice polish on
(26:35):
some videos and things. And I'm wondering if the endorsement
didn't come with a with a little bill there, a
little prize tag, and that price tag is you've got
to boost me to the rest of the state. You know,
you've got to push for me in return from my
support for you. And now this is the kind of
thing that happens in politics all the time. I can't
(26:58):
get that the a whiff of the some quid pro
quo going on there? Or do I have this wrong?
Speaker 3 (27:05):
No, of course, there's always quid pro quo in politics,
and who knows what the quid or the quo are.
But I think what Kathy Hope is trying to do
is what some of us call putting lipstick on a pig.
It's still a pig, but you can put lipstick on
(27:25):
it to make it look good and appear good. And
I think if hocel smart, what she would have tried
to get in return is for him to promise not
to pursue his most radical policies, to rethink, you know,
laying more taxes on the geese that have laid the
(27:46):
golden eggs in New York, the corporations and the wealthy
who pay an outside share of taxes, who would be
driven out of New York if I'm Donnie is elected,
So I think maybe I'm sure he'll he'll endorse her
next year in her run for re election. Is that
(28:12):
something she really wants? I'm not sure about that, because
outside of New York City and Buffalo and to some
degree Albany, New York is actually a very conservative state.
You go Upstate New York and Central New York and
Western New York and for the most part it's Republican leaning.
(28:34):
So I don't know that. I think maybe it might
be the opposite to me. Yeah, well he might have said,
I'll endorse you, Okle says to Mom donn He I'll
endorse you, but you've got to promise not to endorse me.
It couldn't be that, because yeah, it's the thing to
(28:56):
anyone outside.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
Of New York.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Mom, Donnie is poisoned out in New York City.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
So let's just dig quickly into the numbers before wrapping
this up. So, an average of polling I think has
Zara Mamdami ahead, assuming Andrew Cuomo, Curtis Sliwa, and Eric
Adams run. He's got an eighteen plus point lead on
(29:22):
average at the moment, which is his kind of insurmountable.
Do you think that all four of those candidates will
be campaigning come November.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
Well, I think the wild card in the race at
this point is Andrew Cuomo, who I have to say,
it was stunning to me how totally ineffectual he was
in his primary run against Mamdani. He looks like a
spent force. He looks old, he looks tired, he looks
(29:56):
like it has been to be totally honest with you,
and so so given that it's not surprising that he
was beaten so badly by this, you know, thirty year
old upstart that nobody had ever heard of, who calls
himself a socialist. He's the wild card in the sense
that can he somehow consolidate the anti Mamdani voue? Can
(30:19):
he scare enough people into not voting for Mamdanni in
order to come from way behind and win the selection.
The truth is there's not a chance in the world
he can do that if at least Mayor Adams or
(30:40):
the Republican candidate Courtius Lee will drop out and Sleeve
whis basically said no. He has a pretty big vote
share too, of about twenty percent. Slee Wah says he
won't drop out because he's raised a lot of money.
What he says is, I don't want to give this
money back. I was given this money to run and
(31:01):
I'm going to run now. Uh A mirror Adams. You see,
he's played foot seat with a Trump administration a bit,
maybe talking about getting in a point and as an
ambassador or something. But Eric Adams is in single digits. Yeah,
so that won't do it. Womo I think has no
(31:22):
intention of dropping out, So then the only chance is
to courteously what changes its mind. But at this point,
you know, the odds have to be at about ninety
percent that Mom Donnie, yeah, we'll be next mayor of
New York.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Yeah, it would take a very extreme coalition of the
unwilling to yes together. And even if you add all
those up, you're probably talking what forty six percent or
something against Mam Dami's forty three to forty four.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Well, there's been a couple of polls that came out,
or at least one that said even if Adams and
Sliwad drive out, Mom Donnie would still beat Andrew Cuoma.
So take those posts.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
Yeah, yeah, I think the New York Times Siena, if
you tally up the three, I think it was exactly
the same that they got the you know, the all
three of the Sliewa, Adams, and Cuoma all three together,
same as ma'am Donny.
Speaker 3 (32:21):
But yes, right, it's true those the three, the three
other candidates total is the same as Mom Donnie would
never take a point or two.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
It's it's it's his race to win h and New
York's experiment with socialism to find out what happens there,
and we'll be watching it on the page of the libt
Nation dot com, especially on a Public Square poling extravaganza.
We'll be back with Tim after this shortbreak. Don't go anywhere.
Speaker 1 (32:55):
For your freedom and your liberty. Liberty Nation with Mark, ladies.
Speaker 2 (33:01):
And you're back on libut Nation Radio. Remain Mark andeleti's
continue our conversation with longtime host of this here radio show,
Liberty Nation, senapits glalyst, mister Tim darn and Tim and
our dear audience. We've been discussing polling in light of
the new Macy's version of the Public Square that's opening
up on the pages of libtinnation dot com this week,
(33:24):
where we'll be examining all the different polling give you
some great graphics and great analysis on all the big
races that are coming down the pipeline. And so we've
already discussed President Trump's job approvals. We've discussed the generic
congressional ballot for twenty twenty six. We've discussed probably the
most important race this year, the Mamdani contest. I hesitate
(33:47):
to call it an actual contest, but Ma'mdani's coronation in
New York. Although, of course being a socialist he might
refuse the crown.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
No royalty, no king did states.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
I didn't. I did love watching the coverage of Donald
Trump in the United Kingdom because even though it's it's
all very much no kings, you guys sure do love
a bit of pomp and circumstance. The amount of coverage
of Trump's visit to the United Kingdom and the State
Bank it was was quite stung to watch, and I
(34:25):
like it. I love the pump and circumstance. Please do
check out the photo journal that we have on the
pages of Liberty Nation dot com. So let's talk about
the final quarter of what I think of the most
important polling segments to watch, and that is the Right
Direction Wrong Track. Now, for those of our listeners reviews
(34:46):
who aren't familiar with what that is, that's really a
what would you say, Tim, It's it's a poll of sentiment.
Do people think the country's going in the right direction
or do they think this national train is on the
wrong track? Entirely? Give us the tells.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
Well, I think that what this is is a poll
about optimism. Yes, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the
country going forward into the future? As far as you
can see, it or surmise it. And I think that's
why it's particularly useful, because politicians make decisions that make
(35:24):
them more or less popular. Politicians have good weeks and
bad weeks. Parties win elections and lose elections. But the
direction of the country tends to strip out the pure
partisanship involved in things like Trump approval ratings and generic
(35:45):
congressional ballot and boils it down to his basics. And
I think really the most startling contrast in pivoting from
the Biden presidency to the Trump residency the second Trump
presidency is the really dramatic increase in a number of
(36:07):
people who feel the country's moving in the right direction.
It was below thirty with Joe Biden when he left office,
and it was above forty with Donald Trump after two
or three months in the oval office. And this, to
me is the most reflective of I would say, you know,
(36:29):
the most powerful of all the polling, because it tends,
to the greatest extent possible strip away the pure partisanship.
And so someone on the life can say they liked
the direction of the country even though they didn't vote
for Trump, and people on the right can say I
voted for Trump but I don't like the direction of
the country, and the name Trump or Biden or anybody
(36:52):
else doesn't enter into it. And I think looking at
that look it's sort of like the approval of presidents.
It never goes above fifty percent. I've never as seen
the direction of the country be above fifty percent, no
matter who was in the office, Bush, Obama, Biden, Trump,
(37:14):
It's never really been above fifty percent. So if you
can come close to fifty, you're doing well. And Trump
has been in the forties. Now we'll track that very closely,
of course.
Speaker 2 (37:26):
Yeah, it's as you say, it is very much about optimism,
and I think I think part of what goes into
this particular of polling is very much what's happening economically.
So people consider their wallets and they consider their their
job and business prospects depending on if they're employed is
self employed, and they look at these things and they think,
(37:49):
am I happy to be expanding my business in the
coming year, And if they think conditions are right, that's
a very optimistic sentiment, and they'll probably go for Yeah,
the country is on the right track. Because we say
the country, what we really mean is are things on
the right track? For me, and that's what it all
comes down to. Yes, it's the individual, although if you're
(38:11):
in New York you might say, hey, but what about
the collective? What about the socialist collector the collected?
Speaker 3 (38:17):
Its mindset?
Speaker 2 (38:19):
Tim, final word on this, do you think that coming
into the twenty twenty six midterms that the direction of
the country data will be going up or down from
where it is now? Final word?
Speaker 3 (38:29):
Well, I think it all depends on the direction of
the economy. If we get economic growth that pushes up
towards three percent percent, the jobs numbers improve, the number
of people in the workforce, that's a critical yeah factor.
If that increases, I think you're going to get my census,
(38:50):
you're going to get that same general sense of economic
well being that people had during Trump's first term when
in February twenty twenty it looked like Trump would be
on a glide path to real action until the pandemic
came along, And most of that was because of the
strength of the economy. So it all pivots on the economy.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
Tim Donner, thanks every so much for joining us.
Speaker 3 (39:18):
Had a great time, Mark.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
Thanks, and that's what we have time for. On this
week's listen, of Limutin Nation, radio head coast to coast,
and the Radio American Network. I've been your host, Mark
Antleoni's I'd like to thank our guest today, Tim Donner,
senior political analyst over at limitinnation dot com, and you
the listeners who take the time each week to tune
in and join us. Please do remember to go and
check out libertin Nation's brand new polling, the Public Square
over on the website. And Limbity Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns,
(39:42):
or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement
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