On Friday's episode, Ronald Cabang and Moneyline Matt welcome Tony Finn back to the show to run the 3-man weave around tonight's NBA play-in matchups which are Bulls vs Heat and Thunder vs Timberwolves. Which teams will keep their NBA playoff hopes alive? See what the Triple Double crew thinks!
#NBA | #NBAPicks | #FreeSportsPicks
Friday's Featured NBA Games:
Introduction 00:00
Bulls vs Heat 5:00
Thunder vs Timberwolves 11:20
Show Best Bets 22:50
#NBA | #NBAPicks | #FreeSportsPicks
Friday's Featured NBA Games:
Introduction 00:00
Bulls vs Heat 5:00
Thunder vs Timberwolves 11:20
Show Best Bets 22:50
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Playball hot off the Press. Handicappersfrom wager Talk, Sports Memo, and
The Gold Cheat have collaborated on thetwenty twenty three wager Talk Media MLB Betting
Guide, from World Series odds toregular season win totals and everything in between.
This year's betting guide features previews onall thirty teams, all six divisions,
and season long awards like the cyYoung MVP and Rookie of the Year.
(00:21):
Each preview contains key roster acquisitions anddepartures to help you get up to
speed before opening day. Visit WTdot buzz slash MLB twenty three to download
your free guide, and we'll seeyou in the batter's box. Welcome to
(00:45):
the NBA Triple Double Show powered bySports Memo. I'm your host, Ronald
Kabang, also known as Ucapper onsports memo dot Com at ucapper sports on
Twitter. I'll be joined by Moneyline, Matt and Tony Finn from wager Talk
to break down the two playing gamestoday and also we're gonna give out some
of our best bets after the Afterthose two games we break down. Before
(01:06):
we get into those, though,I do want to talk about a huge
promo we got going on over atsports Memo and wager Talk. It's a
playoffs to preseason kickoff promotion. Itis a deal that equates to less than
five dollars per day. Obviously,Baseball's back the player, NBA playoffs happening,
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(01:29):
To lock in your favorite wager Talk, sports Memo or Sports Memo expert
through the NFL preseason. That wouldcost you well over a thousand dollars,
but for a limited time, payonly four ninety nine coming out under coming
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sign up, and so you theearlier you sign up, the better the
(01:49):
deal it does. It does endtwenty twenty three Pro Football Hall of Fame
game, which is August third,That would be the last day of the
deal. So that's a long,a long period of time from here until
then. Um, it is allaccess to you get every single player from
every sport from the chosen the expertthat you you sign up with, and
your access begins, like I said, it begins the day you sign up,
(02:12):
so the earlier you do it,the better the deal. The playoffs
to preseason kick promotion, and atmidnight Monday, April seventeenth, that would
be the last day you can getthe promotion. UM, so head over
to sports Promo dot com at wagertalk dot com after the show here.
UM also utilize the free live oddspages the Deal's page. The kappers provide
free picks and analysis on the dailybasis, along with their gidges for sale
(02:36):
as well. So, UM,a lot of stuff going on over there.
All you gotta do is submit anemail address if you haven't signed up
already, UM, and a lotof that stuff is free as well.
UM. Before you go as well, take make sure you hit the like
and subscribe button here on this channel. It only takes a couple of clicks
and it helps our show grow tremendously. With that said, let's get Matt
and Tony up here with me,guys. One one day left before the
(03:00):
actual NBA playoffs. Here we gottwo games for the play ins. How's
everything been going so far this weekfor you guys. I know we only
had what the playings on Wednesday,but a lot of stuff going on outside
of the NBA as well. Matt, Matt, how's your week so far?
Yeah, the play in game theother day, I actually went one
and two, so not the notthe greatest, but I did end up
(03:21):
having the thunder. You guys know, I love back in my thunder with
the plus five and a half.They got that done, ended up winning
that one outright, and I thinkthey make for a pretty exciting game tonight
against the Timberwolf. So obviously youguys already know that's the game I'm looking
forward to. We got two gamesto break down and ready to get to
it. Yeah, Tony, how'severything been going for you this week?
(03:42):
Good? Good? Um? Latetypically late in the NBA season, in
the postseason, I have my mostsuccess. I've never tried to break down
why or what of that, butuh, you know, if you if
you believe, I guess if historyrepeat itself, expected a pretty good postseason,
and I've only played one that wasa thunder as well. I've had
(04:03):
the thunder plus the point. SoI took the thunder half of my investment
on the points, where I putanother couple of units on plus one eighty
on the thunder. I played thesame game parlay, which was plus five
and a half over the two twentysix and a half because I thought that
(04:24):
total drop too much, that there'svalue on the over, and I threw
in, uh, don't excuse me, giddy with a double double, which
was about one twenty plus one twenty. So the three team same game parlay
page as well. I had agood, good um first first game.
That was the only one I played. Pardon me, it's all good.
(04:45):
Yeah, that sounded like a greatday for you. I went one on
one on Wednesday. I did havethe Bulls and I was actually an opposite
of you guys. I did well. I did look towards the Pelican side,
so that was my bad there.But one on one just got used
out. Hopefully we have a betterbetter day today. Let's get into those
games. Actually, we got thefirst one up here, Bulls and the
Heat, the Bulls coming off ofat home, coming out from that come
(05:08):
from behind victory over the Raptors onWednesday. The Bulls were down eleven at
half and dominated the second half sixtytwo to forty seven to end up winning
by four points. There. Levinehad a huge night thirty and nine points
that night on the Heat side.They're coming off of the one five sixteen
loss to the Hawks. The Hawkspretty much dominated that game from the jump.
Offensively, the Heat were struggling,and that's tough because you know Hawks,
(05:30):
they're not known for their defense,so obviously there their current form offensively
is not that great here on theinjury. On the injury aspect, Larry
Butler and Vincent are all questionable,but I expect them all to play today.
From a match up perspective, Bullsown the regular season series three.
Oh, they won all three gamesoutright as dogs. Here, Matt,
let's start with you. Do youthink the Bulls can turn out another win
(05:53):
here as a as an outright dog? Yeah, and in all honestly I
do. This is a spot oryou know, it's once again we've been
talking about these five and a halfpoint spreads, and five and a half
points is a lot, especially fora Heat team right now who has been
playing very inconsistent. I'm not seeinga ton from the Miami Heat that makes
me want to buy into them andlay this five and a half points.
(06:15):
You know, typically around this time, Jimmy Butler is coming alive, being
that three stat stuffer, and he'snot really doing that. You know,
they lost even with Kyle Lowry goingoff, who is a guy who you
know that's once in a blue moon. We I don't know if we've seen
that all season from Kyle Lowry.So for me, it is it's very
tough to buy into this Miami Heatteam right now. Both of these teams
play very slow style basketball. Andyou know, before the show we were
(06:40):
talking about this and the guy orthe player that I think is the hottest
or the biggest potential spark plug isactually Zach Levine. So if Zach Levine
can get it going in this game, start making some shots, start making
some of those tougher shots that areearly in the shot clock, it's very
tough for this Heat team to keepup. They just don't seem to have
that guy who can respond. Anda lot of that time it is Tyler
(07:01):
Hero, but he really hasn't beencoming about as of late. So once
again, you know, it isvery tough for me to buy into this.
This is also a two o ninetotal at this point in time to
a very low total. And ifyou give me a low total like that
and give me five and a halfpoints for one of those teams, That's
generally where I'm going to go becausewith the lower totals, the slower pace
(07:23):
matchups, it's generally easier to keepthe game nice and close. So for
me, I would go with theBulls here. There is nothing with this
Miami Heat team that makes me looktheir way or makes me believe that they
can cover a five and a halfpoint spread. I actually wouldn't be surprised
whatsoever if this Heat team loses outright. So for me, I would be
with the Bulls here. Once again, I like that look a lot there.
(07:46):
My best bet is gonna be onthis game specifically, so I'm gonna
I'm gonna jump it over to TonyFinn here. Tony, what are your
thoughts on this game? Do yousee something on the bull side? Are
you on the bulls as well?Or do you see something from a total
aspect or props? Well, I'llsay this, I um I backed off
of the Miami Heat probably halfway alittle, a little past or beyond the
(08:09):
All Star break simply because I foundthem they were torture to handicap. You
didn't know who was going to beplaying, who wasn't gonna be playing.
I mentioned on a couple of showsyesterday that, um, you know,
it used to be Miami was kindof a team you could always depend on
certain things. It was a calmingeffect. Actually took to back to back
the Heat and Supulstra. But it'salmost like you're watching it, you know,
(08:33):
a musical or a Disney movie,and you got the music in the
background, and then all of asudden, Lindsay Lohan and brat packs show
up and you got little fires everything. You know, it's just absolutely nuts,
and so I just kind of stayedaway from However, I'll say this,
Um, I don't put a lotof significance. I don't put a
ton of significance on regular season matchupsgoing into the playoffs. I think NBA
(08:56):
playffs are just a different animal.It's a different it's a second season.
It's a two months season, youknow, and one that that you don't
question motivation or you don't quite youknow, you early on question injuries.
If you can play players in theplayffs, if they can play, they're
playing now, are they going tobe as a fishing effective et cetera,
et cetera. That's uh. Ican give you one hundred scenarios where fifty
(09:20):
of them proved out to be theyshould have played and did well in another
fifty. Probably you're playing hurt andthe team was more desperate if you like
to change the Chicago made after theyou know, after the deadline where you
know they basically purchased the playing specialist, right, Patrick Beverley, who remember
last year on the Twitter with allthe tier field celebrations when they escaped that
(09:43):
Western Conference play in tournament last year? You know, Chicago three no straight
up and against the spread when facingMiami. So heat happened to be ten
and twenty one against the spread whenplaying as a home favorite. This year,
it all dreams too and I'll giveyou some later to show. I
could give you a couple now,but we won't do that way. The
(10:05):
numbers for playoff games last year werestupid crazy. If it didn't matter what
the spread was, if you won, you covered. And the numbers are
absolutely crazy, absurd. So it'snot that's not complete history, and it's
always been that way. But tobe like, I think it was seventy
nine and six. If you won, you covered. So as Matt just
(10:28):
described, if you like Chicago plusfive and a half, you better sprinkle
some money on the money line aswell. Yeah, that makes a lot
of sense there. I mean,you talked about the Heat struggles post All
Star break, so one thing thatI did notice is that the Heat were
terrible offensively in the first part ofthe season, and after the All Star
Break, it seems like they triedto fix that by playing a little quicker
(10:52):
pace and focusing on the offensive sideof the ball, but then in turn
their defense started to struggle, soit kind of counterbalanced. And that's what
I saw, you know, continueto see in that playing game against the
Hawks. Their their their defense wasn'tup to part what we normally see from
a Heat team, a Heat spolsterteam, to be exact. So um,
it's always it's always tough to toback a team that's struggling defensively when
(11:15):
it comes to the playoffs. AndI'll talk about a little bit more in
the in the best bet section,but let's move on to the Thunder and
the Wolves. Here. The Thundercoming off of that impressive win over the
Pelicans on Wednesday one twenty three toone eighteen. Giddy Sga led the way.
They're a huge support from Dort aswell. I think that was a
surprise to a lot of people.One thing that was that has kind of
(11:35):
impressed me for the as far asthe thunderside, you know, we talk
about them as as covering you know, dog situations all season long. But
I think one thing that's really impressiveis their halftime adjustments and you could you
really saw that in that game againstthe Pelicans in that third quarter they led
thirty nine to twenty four. UM. It's just crazy that they I think
their coaching staff doesn't get as muchcredit credit as they should because they have
(11:58):
guys like Sga and Giddy and stuffputting up the type of numbers that they
are on the wolveside, coming offof the loss of the Lakers, which
I feel like it was a prettywild game there, to be honest.
The Wolves were up eleven and ahalf at at one point during the third
quarter, they were up as muchas fifteen points there, and then they
proceed to score sixteen points combined betweenthe fourth and ot and Edwards went for
(12:22):
three to seventeen from the field thatgame as well. From an injury aspect,
Jaden Williams and Nas read out onceagain the Wolves. That's huge for
the Wolves there. Key depth andversatility that they're missing between two two guys
matchup wise, the Wolves did takethe regular season series three to one,
but they split on the spread,the road teams covering all the games,
(12:43):
all four games there, and eventhe Thunder winning one outright in Minnesota.
The big question mark, guys,is how are the Wolves going to accept
Gobert back after you know the situationthat happened in the play in so Tony.
Let's let's start with you here.What are your thoughts in this game?
Well, I first and foremost again, this is one of those I
(13:05):
liked. One of the big reasonsor one of the primary reasons that I
backed Okay, see in that gameagainst the Pelicans were the pelicans struggles against
teams that were offensively efficient or twohundred say offensive efficially if two fourteen or
better, or averaging two hundred andsixteen points scare game or more. Thunder
(13:28):
were hideous against those teams. AndI also liked him because no matter what,
the only the only prop I loston that Pelicans and Thunder game was
that the center for the Pelicans.A lot of guys said, look,
I love this over thirteen and ahalf points at love it. I love
it. I love it, AndI said, well, first and foremost,
(13:48):
he's not healthy, not completely healthy, got the bad ankle, bad
leg. Secondly, in the threegames that they played that year, the
four games they played, he scoredonce, scored fourteen, more than thirteen
and a half, and he neverplayed more than twenty seven minutes. He
doesn't They don't give him enough minutesto be given or at least to be
backing big point spread covers as faras propositions go. But if you have
(14:13):
an advantage over okay, see guys, if you have some bigs and he
saw it early in that Pelicans game, they went to inside, went inside,
went inside, winside. Um,I think Valve scored I think ten
first half and they took an earlylead in that game, nine or so
in that game because they were takingadvantage of a smaller team, which is
okay. See Minnesota has the samethey have the same makeup here if you
(14:35):
go back to the games these twoplayed. And again I don't want to
put a bunch emphasis on the regularseason. I want to put a large
infhatis should I say? But thesetwo teams played each other in two of
the first three games of the season. Rudy Gay bears Gobert's debut. He
had a monster game game one,and they comfortably beat Okay, see they
(14:56):
beat him two days later comfortably.The third game is a little different.
And again we're talking about October rightlast year October, so that's almost like
last year. To go back thatfar and use that comparison. They look
what they did to him. Here, Look how they took advantage of this
year. It's not something you do. And Okay, so he's shown time
(15:18):
in game in and game out,to be honest with you, that they
can adjust their versatile they and arguably, in my mind, they have arguably
the best playmaker in basketball. Andthat's just it's just who it is.
Gill Alexander doesn't matter who you are. He's gonna find a way to take
the ball to the rim against whoever. You have to guard him, and
(15:39):
you're probably gonna have to. Youcan almost have to bracket him. You're
gonna put your best defender on himand then and basically sag with your five
and hopefully it's not a stretch five, but you sag with your five and
defend the rim. But um,I don't trust Minnesota again. Little fires
everywhere. We saw it in thelast game. You know, they lose
(16:00):
one of their best two defenders.Obviously, really Gobert's back, he's the
guy that you want to have inthe middle, a defensive player of the
Year type. But but but butum, a broken hand and a locker
room that I don't think it's divided. But this is supposed to be a
time when everybody's together and you know, they're cohesive to some degree. I
don't feel that way about Minnesota.Give me okay, see, yeah,
(16:25):
I agree with you as far asthe cohesiveness within this team. Here,
they talk about how Gobert coming backis not going to be issue. They
hash you hashed it out and stufflike that, But I don't know.
I mean, he threw a punchand and all these things, and obviously
it's in the heat of the moment. But it's sometimes these guys, they
(16:45):
they can act like things are okay, but they really aren't. So to
me, I from a side perspective, I still don't want to I don't
see a huge, huge advantage onthe thunderside here. If I look at
some of the numbers and trends,they really cancel each other out for me
from a side perspective, especially ifyou look at the Wolds post All Star
Break. Right, if you lookat them just at home in general,
(17:06):
two and six straight up and againstthe spread, they're averaging one ten point
eight per game, allowing one sixteenper game. But if you look at
the Thunder as road dogs post AllStar Break, a bit of the opposite
of how they did before the AllStar Break, because post also break two
and seven straight up, three andfive, three to five and one that
gets the spread. It just didn'tseem like they were doing you know,
I guess the numbers, maybe thebooks adjusted the numbers a little bit more
(17:30):
so the number the spreads weren't ashuge as they were in previous games.
But for the most part, thosethings canceled each other out. But when
I was doing some research, Ididn't notice that both teams start off pretty
hot in these in these types ofgames here they tend to score more in
the first half then in the secondhalf. And those trends that I just
mentioned, the Thunder specifically as roaddogs post All Star Break average a combined
(17:52):
score one twenty point five in thefirst half as road dogs, and the
total the last time I saw theteam to the first half total is one
sixteen and a half. I wouldprobably look in that direction. I know
the Wolves really had a they struggledfor that stretch in the fourth quarter,
and ot versus the Lakers, Ithink they bounced back a little bit offensively
here against you know, against aThunder team that really isn't isn't two known
(18:18):
for their defense. They do createa lot of turnovers, is one thing,
but they do play a fast paceas well. So I would look
towards the first half over if Iwas to play anything in this game.
Matt, what are your thoughts onthis one? Yeah? I thought both
of you guys brought up a lotof great points. And I think everyone
watching knows I am riding the Thundertill the wheels fall off. I'm gonna
(18:38):
keep rolling with him. I loveSGA, I love what Josh Giddy is
doing right now. I love thatboy, Jalen Williams, And you know,
you guys bring up a lot ofgreat points. And there is um
some unknown with the factor that RudyGobert is going to be coming back into
that game. And I definitely misreadthat Pelican situation with Jonas Valcoonis. I
thought he would have limited minutes becausea smaller lineup. And that's the thing
(19:00):
though with these centers sometimes is whenthey come in and they get hot early
on, then the coach is goingto ride the hot hand. And you
obviously understand that, and the sameexact thing could happen with Rudy Gobert.
I mean, Jalen Williams, thecenter is six ten on a good day,
and you know, Rudy Gobert isseven one with like a seven five
to seven six wingspan. So thereis going to be a huge advantage there
(19:22):
for the Minnesota Timberwolves. But again, Rudy Gobert, there's always that chance
that he can get in foul trouble. Who knows what's going on in the
locker room right now, who knowshow much they're even going to feed Rudy.
And in addition to that, thisis going to be a very fast
game. This is an Oklahoma Citythunder team who has the third highest pace
in basketball. The Minnesota Timberwolves havethe tenth highest pace in all of basketball.
(19:44):
And I love the look for ShyGilders, Alexander, you know,
to get out and run, youknow to your point, Ron Jaden McDaniels
will be missing this game once again, and that's that Timberwolves team's number one
defender. So that often allows SGAto get out and on. It allows
him to attack the basket, getto the free throw line, get into
his post up game. You knowwhat's really nice with this Thunder team,
(20:07):
and I think it's something that's somewhatslept on, is their mid range game.
Is especially with Shai Gilds Alexander,because what's going to occur with Rudy
Gobert. He loves to drop tothe basket. He loves to just get
as close to that basket as possible, get his hands up. But what
Shi can do is he can comearound that pick and roll, pull up
around the free throw line and makeyou pay for that drop defense. So
(20:30):
I think that is the perfect Iguess counter to that drop defense by Rudy
Gobert. And then also someone likeJaalen Williams did not have that great of
a game the other day. Ilike him to bounce back. And although
this Thunder team is so young,I trust them far more than a team
like them Minn sort of Timberwolves ora team like the Miami Heat, like
we talked about earlier, Like forhow young this team is, they make
(20:53):
the adjustments necessary. They play incrediblyhard on both offense and defense. And
if there's one one thing with thisMinnesota Timberwolves team that you've been able to
evaluate all season is this team willjust straight up give up sometimes and they
just don't give max effort. Andagain to Tony's point with Rudy Gobert,
all that circulating is that up inthe air. I don't know. I
(21:14):
don't think it's a divided locker roomor anything like that. Once again,
but could it affect things Maybe Idon't know. So you know, again,
I really do like the look ofthe Oklahoma City Thunder here. I
think the Guards have a lot ofreally nice matchups with SGA and then Anthony
Edwards on the other side. Youknow, Anthony Edwards had a really bad
game against the Lakers. So forme, like I said before, I
am riding this Thunder team till thewheels fall off. Mike sprinkle some money
(21:37):
line on it as well, andI would love to see this Thunder team
make the playoffs. They are justso fun to watch. I've loved watching
them all year long. Yeah,like you said, just to the point
is Rudy Gobert has never been aguy that's uh, you know, my
most popular player or friend or orpersonnel. And this is the same guy.
(22:00):
If remember during COVID, you know, said screws and started rubbing h
and we know what happened after that. So yeah, it was a big,
big problem in Utah. Yeah,that's a good point. Uh.
Yeah, what I was saying was, um, you know, I think
it's credit to the coaching staff,Matt. You you mentioned the adjustments that
they make, Like I said duringyou know, when I was kind of
(22:21):
talking about that game, like thethird quarter adjustments, the halftime adjustments that
are made by this team and thecoaching staff really really impressive there. So
I definitely like that over there withthe thunder um for the most part.
So you know, I think yourbest bet is on that game as well.
So let's start with you in thatstart here. What is your best
bet for today's show? Also tellthe people that you got going on on
(22:44):
the premium side as well. Yeah, guys, I already have three premium
NBA plays up. I cannot waitfor the playoffs to start this Saturday.
You guys already know I am targetingthat Kings and Warriors game. I've sent
play over with that and then oneUFCLA as well. So a lot going
on this weekend. When the playoffsget started, you can count on me
(23:04):
to have a playoff game going justabout every single day. And another thing
I'm going to be doing is I'mgoing to be providing a playoff study guide,
basically breaking down every single game orevery single series, the kind of
the series outcome when I'm basically predictingthe series line, maybe the exact game
outcome, just given some leans andsome looks for everyone to kind of have
(23:26):
at their exposure if they would likeit, you know. So that's going
to be free over at Sports Memoas well. But for today, my
best bat like I was saying,we are sticking with the Timberwolves and thunder
I love the look at this game, the points, the pace, everything
with it, but we are notgoing with the Thunderside. We are actually
going with the Minnesota Timberwolves, andit is going to be Anthony Edwards over
twenty six and a half points andall season long. If you've been tuning
(23:48):
into this show, you guys knowI love to bet the bounce back.
And Anthony Edwards had one of hisworst games of the season, shooting three
for seventeen from the field, overnine from three, and score nine points
in a pivotal game against the LosAngeles Lakers. And if you know Anthony
Edwards, he is a competitor.He loves to get out in transition,
he loves to get out and run, and he loves to attack the basket
(24:11):
and there is no team better todo that against than the Oklahoma City Thunder.
You know, We've talked about thismany times. The Thunder are a
very undersized team. You know,with Jalen Williams the center, he's run
six nine, six ten. Thenthey run Jaylen Williams the power forward and
he's only run six six, sixseven. So again, very capable of
attacking the basket against this team.You know, this is actually a line
(24:34):
that Anthony Edwards has only hit inone of three games when facing this Thunder
team. But you know, thereis a little bit of trickle down effect
with Jade McDaniels being out. Heis someone who takes some shots from the
guard position, from the small forwardposition, so that could go to Anthony
Edwards. Now and again, Ijust expect him to be very aggressive in
this spot. You know, again, he's a very competitive player. He
(24:56):
likes to get out and attack thebasket. And when you look at this
thunder team, they're actually one ofthe worst throughout the NBA and defending the
shooting guard position, they're ninth worstand points given up per game with twenty
four point two nine points given upto the shooting guard position. I think
it's a great spot for Anthony Edwards, and I think it's a do it
all spot for really Anthony Edwards andCarl Anthony Towns. After those two,
(25:18):
there is a big drop off fromproduction in this Minnesota Timberwolves team, and
I just don't see guys like TorrianPrince, Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert doing
all that much tonight. I thinkit's going to be Kat and Anthony Edwards
in a do it all approach forthis Timberwolves team. Again, pace up,
spot, high total. Give meAnthony Edwards over twenty six and a
half tonight, and I wouldn't besurprised if it's a thirty plus or even
(25:41):
a thirty five plus game. Ilike it all right, Tony, let's
go to you here your best betfor today, and also tell the people
we got going on over at wagertalk dot com. Wager talk dot com.
I have. What I have isone play right now, the only
thing I have out baseball yet topublish, and typically Fridays are a little
(26:03):
later published because of it's it's thefirst game of the most series. Umpires
are not they don't. The league'sfairly careful. I have some contexts.
I can get some some some umpireinformation. They can minimize how many crews,
where crews are, where they aren't, et cetera, et cetera.
But umpires are a big, bigfactor in my baseball and it's been very
(26:25):
successful for me. NBA. Ido have a five percent. We've got
a big ticket play on Saturday afternoonfirst game or game one of the first
round and everything else. I havea lot of plays, so I have
some futures. They'll go up sometimelater today as well, and I do
a little similar to what what Mattwas just talking about, a report first
round, second round on through Ido reports on that. But basically,
(26:51):
if you buy the futures I havefor those that I give them an update
daily update injuries some trends and asMatt mentioned, leans just leans not necessarily
official plays or what I'm gonna pushin, uh, you know, to
put some mortgangs and across the sportswoodcounter on. But for those who like
to have like to play a littlebit on everything the degenerates, I should
(27:12):
say, like I am, I'ma degenerate, but I i'm what you
call um of discipline, the generateonly because I have a lot of kids
in college. But that said,I'm gonna get tell you this right now.
I'm my free pick or the bigbest bet play for this show is
I like Boston for several reasons inthis first round, and I believe Boston
(27:36):
to be the one team, theone the one first round game. I
think that's most likely you'll find tosweep. And I have surprising let shouldn't
surprise the whole feel kind of surpriseme a little bit. I thought the
number was a little bit low,but to you know, to go minus
three and a half on Boston asa series play is only returning in plus
two eighty. Now a lot ofpeople say, well, why why do
(27:56):
that? Why not just play youknow, the money line on Boston for
the first four games. I haven'tdone the math on that because this was
kind of a thing I just said, you know, I'm gonna throw this
out for for a wrong show,you know, And so I'll do the
math on laser and maybe you guyscan discuss that as you go forward in
situations like that where you're playing seriousmoney, especially as sweep like I am
ninus three and a half. Um, Boston's gonna be a pretty big favorite,
(28:19):
at least at home. And thiswhat's what's the number on that right
now? I think it's about eightand a half or nine if I'm not
mistaken. Um, in game,I think I like the over and they
say, yeah, I like theover. And before I'm gonna I'm not
even gonna going in the game.I'm just gonna give you a couple that's
mentioned to you. I'm gonna givea couple of trends. And I'm not
a big trend guy, but thisare two different seasons. And what I
always like to mention in shows isthat, uh, I you know,
(28:44):
I would warn you to be carryingover somebody a team's form from tending games
ago. Um end of the playoffs, you had a loan a team's form
fifty games ago because they beat thecrap out of this team. Look,
how can it be any different?It can be different. I mean there's
only been twelve twelve sweeps, twelvebetter seed sweeps. All twelve had better
(29:04):
records obviously in the second half ofthe season, So that's something you look
at, look at second half ofthe season. But first round game trends,
big favorites have a big edge,guys. So it's not the teams
of eight and a half points orbetter, or eight and a half points
giving eight and a half points ormore, seventy six and ten straight up,
(29:26):
that's that's a pretty nice number,but they're fifty two and thirty four
until we're sixty percent against the number. Unders are very prevalent in the first
round. We talked a little bitabout that. Bigger road favors also a
saw of eight of eight of thelast forty five road favors of four and
a half points or more have lostout right, going thirty seven, thirty
(29:49):
seven and eight. That's what thenumber was, thirty thirty eight. If
you're a road favorite four and ahalf or more in this first round,
thirty seven to eight straight up thirtyand fourteen against the number almost se seventy
percent. Um. It's when youget to these lines, the four points,
the two points, four points areless. You know, on the
favorite have proven to be a losingproposition thirty three, thirty two straight up,
(30:11):
twenty four and thirty eight against thenumber. So um. In many
cases in the NBA, it's notas you know, it's not as rewarding,
Uh you'r ro as not as expansiveor as attractive. Look at,
money lines are often the way togo in these NBA games that are four
(30:32):
hunder a few, whatever it is, whatever it is that you're taking the
dog, you're gonna be playing themoney line. You're gonna be playing the
dog because uh, it's telling thisgame's gonna be close. And it's just
the way it's twenty seven guys lastyear NBA First Round playoffs, twenty seven
hundred sixteen overs. That's a sixtythree percent return. That's pretty darn good.
Um. So those are just littleto and obviously this is it's different
(30:56):
year to year, but for themost partum for friend favorites of eight and
a half points or more. Ifif you say that's too many points,
lay that I'm gonna take him.You'd be You're a big loser. So
give me Boston minus three and ahalf only returns plus two eighty. But
I take it. Boston sweeps overwhat is now a basically a Quinn Schneider
(31:17):
team that is much better if youlook at him, they're much better offensively.
In fact, Trey and Murray theyare. They're taking it to the
rim. And that's what Quinn Sneyderdid. Not that Trey didn't do that,
guys, He's always done that.But over this year, thirty one
percent of the shots came from atthe rim four feet and in four feet
(31:40):
closer with Snyder at the helm.He's been instructing him to go more thirty
eight percent of the shots since Quinntook over or at the rim. So
points fouls I think are prevalent.In Game one in Boston, I like
the over in this game and thenumber is two thirty two, three and
a half right now and climbing,I like you, Tony. I actually
(32:01):
talked about the series, the Celticsseries play um Oh during on Wednesday,
right Matt I talked that was mybest bet on Wednesday for the show as
well, and then the one thingthat I mentioned there that you I don't
think you mentioned was the Celtics actuallyswept three of the last four first round
series the last four years. Theone that they didn't sweep, they ended
(32:23):
up losing to the Nets obviously withinfive games. So I actually my best
bet on Wednesday was under five anda half series games, but like I
said, I think the sweep isis definitely doable there. My best bet
for today's show, guys, isthe game one of the games that we
talked about earlier, the Bulls andthey heat there. I like the Bulls
here plus five and a half.I actually think they have a really good
(32:45):
chance to win this one. Outright. We talked about how the Bulls on
the regular season series three ZH wonall three games as outright dogs as well,
we're seeing the Bulls in really goodform right now, is specifically on
the defensive side of the ball postall Star break, number one indefensive rating
UM also third in the league innet rating post Austar break, only behind
the Celtics and the Warriors. Ifwe look at the Bulls as Conference roaddogs
(33:08):
as well, in this current situationpost Offstar break, they've been h great
defensively in that spot. They've kepttheir opponent under their team total games that
includes that game against that first playinggame as well. The Heat struggled offensively.
I mentioned earlier that they struggled inthe first part of the season,
tried to fix it. Then nowtheir defense is struggling. And then the
(33:30):
other aspect of it is if theywere only able to put up one or
five against a Hawks team who reallystruggles on the defensive side of the ball,
that's gonna be uh. That's that'ssomething that that that really puts me
a positive to back any type ofHeat team here in this aspect, because
if you struggle against a defense likethat and now you're facing the number one
rated defense in the league at thispoint, um, I can only back
(33:52):
the Bulls here. There's a solidchance the uh the Heat don't don't reach
the hundred point market in my opinion, and if that happens, Bulls should
not only cover the five and ahalf, but possibly win that game outright.
So that's my best bet for today'sshow. It's actually a premium play
as well that I gave out tomy clients. I do have two futures
plays series futures. The Celtics isone of them as well that I just
(34:14):
gave out. And then also Ihave four I already have four plays for
game ones during the weekend Saturday andSunday. We got baseball here. We
got three plays for baseball today,and then I'll probably be posting my UFC
this week tonight as well for thisSaturday. So a lot of stuff going
on that leads me to the theplayoffs to kickoff promo. I think that's
(34:36):
all access promo. Like I said, it's one hundred five dollars a day,
So head over to the Sports Memoand wagerhouk dot com and check out
that promotion. It does end onthe seventeen, so you only got three
days to purchase that deal. Ithink it's four ninety nine is what I
believe is the price there. Itis Friday, guys, So this is
the last show of the week.Our next show is on Monday, Matt
(34:59):
or Tony any last before we closeout the week here. Now, just
happy Friday, good luck this weekendwith the NBA playoff opener. Really excited
to get this going. No um, I would say, yeah, I
would say, just take advantage ofthe NBA playoffs always fun. They're fun,
and they you know, it's atwo months it is the two month
(35:21):
second season, should we say?However, you know, the deeper we
go into the playoffs, the lessgames we have. Eventually, you know
we're gonna have four teams, gonnabe a final fourth situation. We're playing
for two conference championships, and baseballis king. And uh what I used
to love about baseball was that itwas you know, it didn't have a
time clock. Well, we havetime constraints now, which I'm not a
(35:43):
big panic. However, baseball.You know what would summer be without Major
League Baseball? In my life?It would be it would have been,
uh, I don't know, beentragic. Let's just put it that way.
I love baseball, look forward tofootball obviously, but have a great
summer. Yeah. One thing aboutbaseball, Tony, is we don't have
to worry about load management, andwe could post our plays where we could
(36:05):
be ready that night before, forthe most part, and not have to
worry about any big, huge changes. All right, Well that said,
guys, like I said, ournext show is on Monday, Me and
Me and Matt will be back,same time, same channel. Here until
then, good luck with all youraction, peace, playball, hot off
the press. Handicappers from wager Talk, Sports Memo, and The Gold Cheat
have collaborated on the twenty twenty threewager Talk Media MLB Betting Guide. From
(36:30):
World Series odds to regular season wintotals and everything in between. This year's
betting guide features previews on all thirtyteams, all six divisions, and season
long awards like the cy Young MVPand Rookie of the Year. Each preview
contains key roster acquisitions and departures tohelp you get up to speed before opening
day. Visit WT dot buzz SlashMLB twenty three to download your free guide,
(36:52):
and we'll see you in the batter'sbox.
Playball hot off the Press. Handicappersfrom wager Talk, Sports Memo, and
The Gold Cheat have collaborated on thetwenty twenty three wager Talk Media MLB Betting
Guide, from World Series odds toregular season win totals and everything in between.
This year's betting guide features previews onall thirty teams, all six divisions,
and season long awards like the cyYoung MVP and Rookie of the Year.
(00:21):
Each preview contains key roster acquisitions anddepartures to help you get up to
speed before opening day. Visit WTdot buzz slash MLB twenty three to download
your free guide, and we'll seeyou in the batter's box. Welcome to
(00:45):
the NBA Triple Double Show powered bySports Memo. I'm your host, Ronald
Kabang, also known as Ucapper onsports memo dot Com at ucapper sports on
Twitter. I'll be joined by Moneyline, Matt and Tony Finn from wager Talk
to break down the two playing gamestoday and also we're gonna give out some
of our best bets after the Afterthose two games we break down. Before
(01:06):
we get into those, though,I do want to talk about a huge
promo we got going on over atsports Memo and wager Talk. It's a
playoffs to preseason kickoff promotion. Itis a deal that equates to less than
five dollars per day. Obviously,Baseball's back the player, NBA playoffs happening,
NHL playoffs here around the corner aswell. We have a great offer
to keep you with action from nowuntil the kickoff of the upcoming NFL season.
(01:29):
To lock in your favorite wager Talk, sports Memo or Sports Memo expert
through the NFL preseason. That wouldcost you well over a thousand dollars,
but for a limited time, payonly four ninety nine coming out under coming
out to under five dollars per day. It does start the day that you
sign up, and so you theearlier you sign up, the better the
(01:49):
deal it does. It does endtwenty twenty three Pro Football Hall of Fame
game, which is August third,That would be the last day of the
deal. So that's a long,a long period of time from here until
then. Um, it is allaccess to you get every single player from
every sport from the chosen the expertthat you you sign up with, and
your access begins, like I said, it begins the day you sign up,
(02:12):
so the earlier you do it,the better the deal. The playoffs
to preseason kick promotion, and atmidnight Monday, April seventeenth, that would
be the last day you can getthe promotion. UM, so head over
to sports Promo dot com at wagertalk dot com after the show here.
UM also utilize the free live oddspages the Deal's page. The kappers provide
free picks and analysis on the dailybasis, along with their gidges for sale
(02:36):
as well. So, UM,a lot of stuff going on over there.
All you gotta do is submit anemail address if you haven't signed up
already, UM, and a lotof that stuff is free as well.
UM. Before you go as well, take make sure you hit the like
and subscribe button here on this channel. It only takes a couple of clicks
and it helps our show grow tremendously. With that said, let's get Matt
and Tony up here with me,guys. One one day left before the
(03:00):
actual NBA playoffs. Here we gottwo games for the play ins. How's
everything been going so far this weekfor you guys. I know we only
had what the playings on Wednesday,but a lot of stuff going on outside
of the NBA as well. Matt, Matt, how's your week so far?
Yeah, the play in game theother day, I actually went one
and two, so not the notthe greatest, but I did end up
(03:21):
having the thunder. You guys know, I love back in my thunder with
the plus five and a half.They got that done, ended up winning
that one outright, and I thinkthey make for a pretty exciting game tonight
against the Timberwolf. So obviously youguys already know that's the game I'm looking
forward to. We got two gamesto break down and ready to get to
it. Yeah, Tony, how'severything been going for you this week?
(03:42):
Good? Good? Um? Latetypically late in the NBA season, in
the postseason, I have my mostsuccess. I've never tried to break down
why or what of that, butuh, you know, if you if
you believe, I guess if historyrepeat itself, expected a pretty good postseason,
and I've only played one that wasa thunder as well. I've had
(04:03):
the thunder plus the point. SoI took the thunder half of my investment
on the points, where I putanother couple of units on plus one eighty
on the thunder. I played thesame game parlay, which was plus five
and a half over the two twentysix and a half because I thought that
(04:24):
total drop too much, that there'svalue on the over, and I threw
in, uh, don't excuse me, giddy with a double double, which
was about one twenty plus one twenty. So the three team same game parlay
page as well. I had agood, good um first first game.
That was the only one I played. Pardon me, it's all good.
(04:45):
Yeah, that sounded like a greatday for you. I went one on
one on Wednesday. I did havethe Bulls and I was actually an opposite
of you guys. I did well. I did look towards the Pelican side,
so that was my bad there.But one on one just got used
out. Hopefully we have a betterbetter day today. Let's get into those
games. Actually, we got thefirst one up here, Bulls and the
Heat, the Bulls coming off ofat home, coming out from that come
(05:08):
from behind victory over the Raptors onWednesday. The Bulls were down eleven at
half and dominated the second half sixtytwo to forty seven to end up winning
by four points. There. Levinehad a huge night thirty and nine points
that night on the Heat side.They're coming off of the one five sixteen
loss to the Hawks. The Hawkspretty much dominated that game from the jump.
Offensively, the Heat were struggling,and that's tough because you know Hawks,
(05:30):
they're not known for their defense,so obviously there their current form offensively
is not that great here on theinjury. On the injury aspect, Larry
Butler and Vincent are all questionable,but I expect them all to play today.
From a match up perspective, Bullsown the regular season series three.
Oh, they won all three gamesoutright as dogs. Here, Matt,
let's start with you. Do youthink the Bulls can turn out another win
(05:53):
here as a as an outright dog? Yeah, and in all honestly I
do. This is a spot oryou know, it's once again we've been
talking about these five and a halfpoint spreads, and five and a half
points is a lot, especially fora Heat team right now who has been
playing very inconsistent. I'm not seeinga ton from the Miami Heat that makes
me want to buy into them andlay this five and a half points.
(06:15):
You know, typically around this time, Jimmy Butler is coming alive, being
that three stat stuffer, and he'snot really doing that. You know,
they lost even with Kyle Lowry goingoff, who is a guy who you
know that's once in a blue moon. We I don't know if we've seen
that all season from Kyle Lowry.So for me, it is it's very
tough to buy into this Miami Heatteam right now. Both of these teams
play very slow style basketball. Andyou know, before the show we were
(06:40):
talking about this and the guy orthe player that I think is the hottest
or the biggest potential spark plug isactually Zach Levine. So if Zach Levine
can get it going in this game, start making some shots, start making
some of those tougher shots that areearly in the shot clock, it's very
tough for this Heat team to keepup. They just don't seem to have
that guy who can respond. Anda lot of that time it is Tyler
(07:01):
Hero, but he really hasn't beencoming about as of late. So once
again, you know, it isvery tough for me to buy into this.
This is also a two o ninetotal at this point in time to
a very low total. And ifyou give me a low total like that
and give me five and a halfpoints for one of those teams, That's
generally where I'm going to go becausewith the lower totals, the slower pace
(07:23):
matchups, it's generally easier to keepthe game nice and close. So for
me, I would go with theBulls here. There is nothing with this
Miami Heat team that makes me looktheir way or makes me believe that they
can cover a five and a halfpoint spread. I actually wouldn't be surprised
whatsoever if this Heat team loses outright. So for me, I would be
with the Bulls here. Once again, I like that look a lot there.
(07:46):
My best bet is gonna be onthis game specifically, so I'm gonna
I'm gonna jump it over to TonyFinn here. Tony, what are your
thoughts on this game? Do yousee something on the bull side? Are
you on the bulls as well?Or do you see something from a total
aspect or props? Well, I'llsay this, I um I backed off
of the Miami Heat probably halfway alittle, a little past or beyond the
(08:09):
All Star break simply because I foundthem they were torture to handicap. You
didn't know who was going to beplaying, who wasn't gonna be playing.
I mentioned on a couple of showsyesterday that, um, you know,
it used to be Miami was kindof a team you could always depend on
certain things. It was a calmingeffect. Actually took to back to back
the Heat and Supulstra. But it'salmost like you're watching it, you know,
(08:33):
a musical or a Disney movie,and you got the music in the
background, and then all of asudden, Lindsay Lohan and brat packs show
up and you got little fires everything. You know, it's just absolutely nuts,
and so I just kind of stayedaway from However, I'll say this,
Um, I don't put a lotof significance. I don't put a
ton of significance on regular season matchupsgoing into the playoffs. I think NBA
(08:56):
playffs are just a different animal.It's a different it's a second season.
It's a two months season, youknow, and one that that you don't
question motivation or you don't quite youknow, you early on question injuries.
If you can play players in theplayffs, if they can play, they're
playing now, are they going tobe as a fishing effective et cetera,
et cetera. That's uh. Ican give you one hundred scenarios where fifty
(09:20):
of them proved out to be theyshould have played and did well in another
fifty. Probably you're playing hurt andthe team was more desperate if you like
to change the Chicago made after theyou know, after the deadline where you
know they basically purchased the playing specialist, right, Patrick Beverley, who remember
last year on the Twitter with allthe tier field celebrations when they escaped that
(09:43):
Western Conference play in tournament last year? You know, Chicago three no straight
up and against the spread when facingMiami. So heat happened to be ten
and twenty one against the spread whenplaying as a home favorite. This year,
it all dreams too and I'll giveyou some later to show. I
could give you a couple now,but we won't do that way. The
(10:05):
numbers for playoff games last year werestupid crazy. If it didn't matter what
the spread was, if you won, you covered. And the numbers are
absolutely crazy, absurd. So it'snot that's not complete history, and it's
always been that way. But tobe like, I think it was seventy
nine and six. If you won, you covered. So as Matt just
(10:28):
described, if you like Chicago plusfive and a half, you better sprinkle
some money on the money line aswell. Yeah, that makes a lot
of sense there. I mean,you talked about the Heat struggles post All
Star break, so one thing thatI did notice is that the Heat were
terrible offensively in the first part ofthe season, and after the All Star
Break, it seems like they triedto fix that by playing a little quicker
(10:52):
pace and focusing on the offensive sideof the ball, but then in turn
their defense started to struggle, soit kind of counterbalanced. And that's what
I saw, you know, continueto see in that playing game against the
Hawks. Their their their defense wasn'tup to part what we normally see from
a Heat team, a Heat spolsterteam, to be exact. So um,
it's always it's always tough to toback a team that's struggling defensively when
(11:15):
it comes to the playoffs. AndI'll talk about a little bit more in
the in the best bet section,but let's move on to the Thunder and
the Wolves. Here. The Thundercoming off of that impressive win over the
Pelicans on Wednesday one twenty three toone eighteen. Giddy Sga led the way.
They're a huge support from Dort aswell. I think that was a
surprise to a lot of people.One thing that was that has kind of
(11:35):
impressed me for the as far asthe thunderside, you know, we talk
about them as as covering you know, dog situations all season long. But
I think one thing that's really impressiveis their halftime adjustments and you could you
really saw that in that game againstthe Pelicans in that third quarter they led
thirty nine to twenty four. UM. It's just crazy that they I think
their coaching staff doesn't get as muchcredit credit as they should because they have
(11:58):
guys like Sga and Giddy and stuffputting up the type of numbers that they
are on the wolveside, coming offof the loss of the Lakers, which
I feel like it was a prettywild game there, to be honest.
The Wolves were up eleven and ahalf at at one point during the third
quarter, they were up as muchas fifteen points there, and then they
proceed to score sixteen points combined betweenthe fourth and ot and Edwards went for
(12:22):
three to seventeen from the field thatgame as well. From an injury aspect,
Jaden Williams and Nas read out onceagain the Wolves. That's huge for
the Wolves there. Key depth andversatility that they're missing between two two guys
matchup wise, the Wolves did takethe regular season series three to one,
but they split on the spread,the road teams covering all the games,
(12:43):
all four games there, and eventhe Thunder winning one outright in Minnesota.
The big question mark, guys,is how are the Wolves going to accept
Gobert back after you know the situationthat happened in the play in so Tony.
Let's let's start with you here.What are your thoughts in this game?
Well, I first and foremost again, this is one of those I
(13:05):
liked. One of the big reasonsor one of the primary reasons that I
backed Okay, see in that gameagainst the Pelicans were the pelicans struggles against
teams that were offensively efficient or twohundred say offensive efficially if two fourteen or
better, or averaging two hundred andsixteen points scare game or more. Thunder
(13:28):
were hideous against those teams. AndI also liked him because no matter what,
the only the only prop I loston that Pelicans and Thunder game was
that the center for the Pelicans.A lot of guys said, look,
I love this over thirteen and ahalf points at love it. I love
it. I love it, AndI said, well, first and foremost,
(13:48):
he's not healthy, not completely healthy, got the bad ankle, bad
leg. Secondly, in the threegames that they played that year, the
four games they played, he scoredonce, scored fourteen, more than thirteen
and a half, and he neverplayed more than twenty seven minutes. He
doesn't They don't give him enough minutesto be given or at least to be
backing big point spread covers as faras propositions go. But if you have
(14:13):
an advantage over okay, see guys, if you have some bigs and he
saw it early in that Pelicans game, they went to inside, went inside,
went inside, winside. Um,I think Valve scored I think ten
first half and they took an earlylead in that game, nine or so
in that game because they were takingadvantage of a smaller team, which is
okay. See Minnesota has the samethey have the same makeup here if you
(14:35):
go back to the games these twoplayed. And again I don't want to
put a bunch emphasis on the regularseason. I want to put a large
infhatis should I say? But thesetwo teams played each other in two of
the first three games of the season. Rudy Gay bears Gobert's debut. He
had a monster game game one,and they comfortably beat Okay, see they
(14:56):
beat him two days later comfortably.The third game is a little different.
And again we're talking about October rightlast year October, so that's almost like
last year. To go back thatfar and use that comparison. They look
what they did to him. Here, Look how they took advantage of this
year. It's not something you do. And Okay, so he's shown time
(15:18):
in game in and game out,to be honest with you, that they
can adjust their versatile they and arguably, in my mind, they have arguably
the best playmaker in basketball. Andthat's just it's just who it is.
Gill Alexander doesn't matter who you are. He's gonna find a way to take
the ball to the rim against whoever. You have to guard him, and
(15:39):
you're probably gonna have to. Youcan almost have to bracket him. You're
gonna put your best defender on himand then and basically sag with your five
and hopefully it's not a stretch five, but you sag with your five and
defend the rim. But um,I don't trust Minnesota again. Little fires
everywhere. We saw it in thelast game. You know, they lose
(16:00):
one of their best two defenders.Obviously, really Gobert's back, he's the
guy that you want to have inthe middle, a defensive player of the
Year type. But but but butum, a broken hand and a locker
room that I don't think it's divided. But this is supposed to be a
time when everybody's together and you know, they're cohesive to some degree. I
don't feel that way about Minnesota.Give me okay, see, yeah,
(16:25):
I agree with you as far asthe cohesiveness within this team. Here,
they talk about how Gobert coming backis not going to be issue. They
hash you hashed it out and stufflike that, But I don't know.
I mean, he threw a punchand and all these things, and obviously
it's in the heat of the moment. But it's sometimes these guys, they
(16:45):
they can act like things are okay, but they really aren't. So to
me, I from a side perspective, I still don't want to I don't
see a huge, huge advantage onthe thunderside here. If I look at
some of the numbers and trends,they really cancel each other out for me
from a side perspective, especially ifyou look at the Wolds post All Star
Break. Right, if you lookat them just at home in general,
(17:06):
two and six straight up and againstthe spread, they're averaging one ten point
eight per game, allowing one sixteenper game. But if you look at
the Thunder as road dogs post AllStar Break, a bit of the opposite
of how they did before the AllStar Break, because post also break two
and seven straight up, three andfive, three to five and one that
gets the spread. It just didn'tseem like they were doing you know,
I guess the numbers, maybe thebooks adjusted the numbers a little bit more
(17:30):
so the number the spreads weren't ashuge as they were in previous games.
But for the most part, thosethings canceled each other out. But when
I was doing some research, Ididn't notice that both teams start off pretty
hot in these in these types ofgames here they tend to score more in
the first half then in the secondhalf. And those trends that I just
mentioned, the Thunder specifically as roaddogs post All Star Break average a combined
(17:52):
score one twenty point five in thefirst half as road dogs, and the
total the last time I saw theteam to the first half total is one
sixteen and a half. I wouldprobably look in that direction. I know
the Wolves really had a they struggledfor that stretch in the fourth quarter,
and ot versus the Lakers, Ithink they bounced back a little bit offensively
here against you know, against aThunder team that really isn't isn't two known
(18:18):
for their defense. They do createa lot of turnovers, is one thing,
but they do play a fast paceas well. So I would look
towards the first half over if Iwas to play anything in this game.
Matt, what are your thoughts onthis one? Yeah? I thought both
of you guys brought up a lotof great points. And I think everyone
watching knows I am riding the Thundertill the wheels fall off. I'm gonna
(18:38):
keep rolling with him. I loveSGA, I love what Josh Giddy is
doing right now. I love thatboy, Jalen Williams, And you know,
you guys bring up a lot ofgreat points. And there is um
some unknown with the factor that RudyGobert is going to be coming back into
that game. And I definitely misreadthat Pelican situation with Jonas Valcoonis. I
thought he would have limited minutes becausea smaller lineup. And that's the thing
(19:00):
though with these centers sometimes is whenthey come in and they get hot early
on, then the coach is goingto ride the hot hand. And you
obviously understand that, and the sameexact thing could happen with Rudy Gobert.
I mean, Jalen Williams, thecenter is six ten on a good day,
and you know, Rudy Gobert isseven one with like a seven five
to seven six wingspan. So thereis going to be a huge advantage there
(19:22):
for the Minnesota Timberwolves. But again, Rudy Gobert, there's always that chance
that he can get in foul trouble. Who knows what's going on in the
locker room right now, who knowshow much they're even going to feed Rudy.
And in addition to that, thisis going to be a very fast
game. This is an Oklahoma Citythunder team who has the third highest pace
in basketball. The Minnesota Timberwolves havethe tenth highest pace in all of basketball.
(19:44):
And I love the look for ShyGilders, Alexander, you know,
to get out and run, youknow to your point, Ron Jaden McDaniels
will be missing this game once again, and that's that Timberwolves team's number one
defender. So that often allows SGAto get out and on. It allows
him to attack the basket, getto the free throw line, get into
his post up game. You knowwhat's really nice with this Thunder team,
(20:07):
and I think it's something that's somewhatslept on, is their mid range game.
Is especially with Shai Gilds Alexander,because what's going to occur with Rudy
Gobert. He loves to drop tothe basket. He loves to just get
as close to that basket as possible, get his hands up. But what
Shi can do is he can comearound that pick and roll, pull up
around the free throw line and makeyou pay for that drop defense. So
(20:30):
I think that is the perfect Iguess counter to that drop defense by Rudy
Gobert. And then also someone likeJaalen Williams did not have that great of
a game the other day. Ilike him to bounce back. And although
this Thunder team is so young,I trust them far more than a team
like them Minn sort of Timberwolves ora team like the Miami Heat, like
we talked about earlier, Like forhow young this team is, they make
(20:53):
the adjustments necessary. They play incrediblyhard on both offense and defense. And
if there's one one thing with thisMinnesota Timberwolves team that you've been able to
evaluate all season is this team willjust straight up give up sometimes and they
just don't give max effort. Andagain to Tony's point with Rudy Gobert,
all that circulating is that up inthe air. I don't know. I
(21:14):
don't think it's a divided locker roomor anything like that. Once again,
but could it affect things Maybe Idon't know. So you know, again,
I really do like the look ofthe Oklahoma City Thunder here. I
think the Guards have a lot ofreally nice matchups with SGA and then Anthony
Edwards on the other side. Youknow, Anthony Edwards had a really bad
game against the Lakers. So forme, like I said before, I
am riding this Thunder team till thewheels fall off. Mike sprinkle some money
(21:37):
line on it as well, andI would love to see this Thunder team
make the playoffs. They are justso fun to watch. I've loved watching
them all year long. Yeah,like you said, just to the point
is Rudy Gobert has never been aguy that's uh, you know, my
most popular player or friend or orpersonnel. And this is the same guy.
(22:00):
If remember during COVID, you know, said screws and started rubbing h
and we know what happened after that. So yeah, it was a big,
big problem in Utah. Yeah,that's a good point. Uh.
Yeah, what I was saying was, um, you know, I think
it's credit to the coaching staff,Matt. You you mentioned the adjustments that
they make, Like I said duringyou know, when I was kind of
(22:21):
talking about that game, like thethird quarter adjustments, the halftime adjustments that
are made by this team and thecoaching staff really really impressive there. So
I definitely like that over there withthe thunder um for the most part.
So you know, I think yourbest bet is on that game as well.
So let's start with you in thatstart here. What is your best
bet for today's show? Also tellthe people that you got going on on
(22:44):
the premium side as well. Yeah, guys, I already have three premium
NBA plays up. I cannot waitfor the playoffs to start this Saturday.
You guys already know I am targetingthat Kings and Warriors game. I've sent
play over with that and then oneUFCLA as well. So a lot going
on this weekend. When the playoffsget started, you can count on me
(23:04):
to have a playoff game going justabout every single day. And another thing
I'm going to be doing is I'mgoing to be providing a playoff study guide,
basically breaking down every single game orevery single series, the kind of
the series outcome when I'm basically predictingthe series line, maybe the exact game
outcome, just given some leans andsome looks for everyone to kind of have
(23:26):
at their exposure if they would likeit, you know. So that's going
to be free over at Sports Memoas well. But for today, my
best bat like I was saying,we are sticking with the Timberwolves and thunder
I love the look at this game, the points, the pace, everything
with it, but we are notgoing with the Thunderside. We are actually
going with the Minnesota Timberwolves, andit is going to be Anthony Edwards over
twenty six and a half points andall season long. If you've been tuning
(23:48):
into this show, you guys knowI love to bet the bounce back.
And Anthony Edwards had one of hisworst games of the season, shooting three
for seventeen from the field, overnine from three, and score nine points
in a pivotal game against the LosAngeles Lakers. And if you know Anthony
Edwards, he is a competitor.He loves to get out in transition,
he loves to get out and run, and he loves to attack the basket
(24:11):
and there is no team better todo that against than the Oklahoma City Thunder.
You know, We've talked about thismany times. The Thunder are a
very undersized team. You know,with Jalen Williams the center, he's run
six nine, six ten. Thenthey run Jaylen Williams the power forward and
he's only run six six, sixseven. So again, very capable of
attacking the basket against this team.You know, this is actually a line
(24:34):
that Anthony Edwards has only hit inone of three games when facing this Thunder
team. But you know, thereis a little bit of trickle down effect
with Jade McDaniels being out. Heis someone who takes some shots from the
guard position, from the small forwardposition, so that could go to Anthony
Edwards. Now and again, Ijust expect him to be very aggressive in
this spot. You know, again, he's a very competitive player. He
(24:56):
likes to get out and attack thebasket. And when you look at this
thunder team, they're actually one ofthe worst throughout the NBA and defending the
shooting guard position, they're ninth worstand points given up per game with twenty
four point two nine points given upto the shooting guard position. I think
it's a great spot for Anthony Edwards, and I think it's a do it
all spot for really Anthony Edwards andCarl Anthony Towns. After those two,
(25:18):
there is a big drop off fromproduction in this Minnesota Timberwolves team, and
I just don't see guys like TorrianPrince, Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert doing
all that much tonight. I thinkit's going to be Kat and Anthony Edwards
in a do it all approach forthis Timberwolves team. Again, pace up,
spot, high total. Give meAnthony Edwards over twenty six and a
half tonight, and I wouldn't besurprised if it's a thirty plus or even
(25:41):
a thirty five plus game. Ilike it all right, Tony, let's
go to you here your best betfor today, and also tell the people
we got going on over at wagertalk dot com. Wager talk dot com.
I have. What I have isone play right now, the only
thing I have out baseball yet topublish, and typically Fridays are a little
(26:03):
later published because of it's it's thefirst game of the most series. Umpires
are not they don't. The league'sfairly careful. I have some contexts.
I can get some some some umpireinformation. They can minimize how many crews,
where crews are, where they aren't, et cetera, et cetera.
But umpires are a big, bigfactor in my baseball and it's been very
(26:25):
successful for me. NBA. Ido have a five percent. We've got
a big ticket play on Saturday afternoonfirst game or game one of the first
round and everything else. I havea lot of plays, so I have
some futures. They'll go up sometimelater today as well, and I do
a little similar to what what Mattwas just talking about, a report first
round, second round on through Ido reports on that. But basically,
(26:51):
if you buy the futures I havefor those that I give them an update
daily update injuries some trends and asMatt mentioned, leans just leans not necessarily
official plays or what I'm gonna pushin, uh, you know, to
put some mortgangs and across the sportswoodcounter on. But for those who like
to have like to play a littlebit on everything the degenerates, I should
(27:12):
say, like I am, I'ma degenerate, but I i'm what you
call um of discipline, the generateonly because I have a lot of kids
in college. But that said,I'm gonna get tell you this right now.
I'm my free pick or the bigbest bet play for this show is
I like Boston for several reasons inthis first round, and I believe Boston
(27:36):
to be the one team, theone the one first round game. I
think that's most likely you'll find tosweep. And I have surprising let shouldn't
surprise the whole feel kind of surpriseme a little bit. I thought the
number was a little bit low,but to you know, to go minus
three and a half on Boston asa series play is only returning in plus
two eighty. Now a lot ofpeople say, well, why why do
(27:56):
that? Why not just play youknow, the money line on Boston for
the first four games. I haven'tdone the math on that because this was
kind of a thing I just said, you know, I'm gonna throw this
out for for a wrong show,you know, And so I'll do the
math on laser and maybe you guyscan discuss that as you go forward in
situations like that where you're playing seriousmoney, especially as sweep like I am
ninus three and a half. Um, Boston's gonna be a pretty big favorite,
(28:19):
at least at home. And thiswhat's what's the number on that right
now? I think it's about eightand a half or nine if I'm not
mistaken. Um, in game,I think I like the over and they
say, yeah, I like theover. And before I'm gonna I'm not
even gonna going in the game.I'm just gonna give you a couple that's
mentioned to you. I'm gonna givea couple of trends. And I'm not
a big trend guy, but thisare two different seasons. And what I
always like to mention in shows isthat, uh, I you know,
(28:44):
I would warn you to be carryingover somebody a team's form from tending games
ago. Um end of the playoffs, you had a loan a team's form
fifty games ago because they beat thecrap out of this team. Look,
how can it be any different?It can be different. I mean there's
only been twelve twelve sweeps, twelvebetter seed sweeps. All twelve had better
(29:04):
records obviously in the second half ofthe season, So that's something you look
at, look at second half ofthe season. But first round game trends,
big favorites have a big edge,guys. So it's not the teams
of eight and a half points orbetter, or eight and a half points
giving eight and a half points ormore, seventy six and ten straight up,
(29:26):
that's that's a pretty nice number,but they're fifty two and thirty four
until we're sixty percent against the number. Unders are very prevalent in the first
round. We talked a little bitabout that. Bigger road favors also a
saw of eight of eight of thelast forty five road favors of four and
a half points or more have lostout right, going thirty seven, thirty
(29:49):
seven and eight. That's what thenumber was, thirty thirty eight. If
you're a road favorite four and ahalf or more in this first round,
thirty seven to eight straight up thirtyand fourteen against the number almost se seventy
percent. Um. It's when youget to these lines, the four points,
the two points, four points areless. You know, on the
favorite have proven to be a losingproposition thirty three, thirty two straight up,
(30:11):
twenty four and thirty eight against thenumber. So um. In many
cases in the NBA, it's notas you know, it's not as rewarding,
Uh you'r ro as not as expansiveor as attractive. Look at,
money lines are often the way togo in these NBA games that are four
(30:32):
hunder a few, whatever it is, whatever it is that you're taking the
dog, you're gonna be playing themoney line. You're gonna be playing the
dog because uh, it's telling thisgame's gonna be close. And it's just
the way it's twenty seven guys lastyear NBA First Round playoffs, twenty seven
hundred sixteen overs. That's a sixtythree percent return. That's pretty darn good.
Um. So those are just littleto and obviously this is it's different
(30:56):
year to year, but for themost partum for friend favorites of eight and
a half points or more. Ifif you say that's too many points,
lay that I'm gonna take him.You'd be You're a big loser. So
give me Boston minus three and ahalf only returns plus two eighty. But
I take it. Boston sweeps overwhat is now a basically a Quinn Schneider
(31:17):
team that is much better if youlook at him, they're much better offensively.
In fact, Trey and Murray theyare. They're taking it to the
rim. And that's what Quinn Sneyderdid. Not that Trey didn't do that,
guys, He's always done that.But over this year, thirty one
percent of the shots came from atthe rim four feet and in four feet
(31:40):
closer with Snyder at the helm.He's been instructing him to go more thirty
eight percent of the shots since Quinntook over or at the rim. So
points fouls I think are prevalent.In Game one in Boston, I like
the over in this game and thenumber is two thirty two, three and
a half right now and climbing,I like you, Tony. I actually
(32:01):
talked about the series, the Celticsseries play um Oh during on Wednesday,
right Matt I talked that was mybest bet on Wednesday for the show as
well, and then the one thingthat I mentioned there that you I don't
think you mentioned was the Celtics actuallyswept three of the last four first round
series the last four years. Theone that they didn't sweep, they ended
(32:23):
up losing to the Nets obviously withinfive games. So I actually my best
bet on Wednesday was under five anda half series games, but like I
said, I think the sweep isis definitely doable there. My best bet
for today's show, guys, isthe game one of the games that we
talked about earlier, the Bulls andthey heat there. I like the Bulls
here plus five and a half.I actually think they have a really good
(32:45):
chance to win this one. Outright. We talked about how the Bulls on
the regular season series three ZH wonall three games as outright dogs as well,
we're seeing the Bulls in really goodform right now, is specifically on
the defensive side of the ball postall Star break, number one indefensive rating
UM also third in the league innet rating post Austar break, only behind
the Celtics and the Warriors. Ifwe look at the Bulls as Conference roaddogs
(33:08):
as well, in this current situationpost Offstar break, they've been h great
defensively in that spot. They've kepttheir opponent under their team total games that
includes that game against that first playinggame as well. The Heat struggled offensively.
I mentioned earlier that they struggled inthe first part of the season,
tried to fix it. Then nowtheir defense is struggling. And then the
(33:30):
other aspect of it is if theywere only able to put up one or
five against a Hawks team who reallystruggles on the defensive side of the ball,
that's gonna be uh. That's that'ssomething that that that really puts me
a positive to back any type ofHeat team here in this aspect, because
if you struggle against a defense likethat and now you're facing the number one
rated defense in the league at thispoint, um, I can only back
(33:52):
the Bulls here. There's a solidchance the uh the Heat don't don't reach
the hundred point market in my opinion, and if that happens, Bulls should
not only cover the five and ahalf, but possibly win that game outright.
So that's my best bet for today'sshow. It's actually a premium play
as well that I gave out tomy clients. I do have two futures
plays series futures. The Celtics isone of them as well that I just
(34:14):
gave out. And then also Ihave four I already have four plays for
game ones during the weekend Saturday andSunday. We got baseball here. We
got three plays for baseball today,and then I'll probably be posting my UFC
this week tonight as well for thisSaturday. So a lot of stuff going
on that leads me to the theplayoffs to kickoff promo. I think that's
(34:36):
all access promo. Like I said, it's one hundred five dollars a day,
So head over to the Sports Memoand wagerhouk dot com and check out
that promotion. It does end onthe seventeen, so you only got three
days to purchase that deal. Ithink it's four ninety nine is what I
believe is the price there. Itis Friday, guys, So this is
the last show of the week.Our next show is on Monday, Matt
(34:59):
or Tony any last before we closeout the week here. Now, just
happy Friday, good luck this weekendwith the NBA playoff opener. Really excited
to get this going. No um, I would say, yeah, I
would say, just take advantage ofthe NBA playoffs always fun. They're fun,
and they you know, it's atwo months it is the two month
(35:21):
second season, should we say?However, you know, the deeper we
go into the playoffs, the lessgames we have. Eventually, you know
we're gonna have four teams, gonnabe a final fourth situation. We're playing
for two conference championships, and baseballis king. And uh what I used
to love about baseball was that itwas you know, it didn't have a
time clock. Well, we havetime constraints now, which I'm not a
(35:43):
big panic. However, baseball.You know what would summer be without Major
League Baseball? In my life?It would be it would have been,
uh, I don't know, beentragic. Let's just put it that way.
I love baseball, look forward tofootball obviously, but have a great
summer. Yeah. One thing aboutbaseball, Tony, is we don't have
to worry about load management, andwe could post our plays where we could
(36:05):
be ready that night before, forthe most part, and not have to
worry about any big, huge changes. All right, Well that said,
guys, like I said, ournext show is on Monday, Me and
Me and Matt will be back,same time, same channel. Here until
then, good luck with all youraction, peace, playball, hot off
the press. Handicappers from wager Talk, Sports Memo, and The Gold Cheat
have collaborated on the twenty twenty threewager Talk Media MLB Betting Guide. From
(36:30):
World Series odds to regular season wintotals and everything in between. This year's
betting guide features previews on all thirtyteams, all six divisions, and season
long awards like the cy Young MVPand Rookie of the Year. Each preview
contains key roster acquisitions and departures tohelp you get up to speed before opening
day. Visit WT dot buzz SlashMLB twenty three to download your free guide,
(36:52):
and we'll see you in the batter'sbox.
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