May 28, 2025 • 54 mins
Episode #44 is our annual follow up of a statistical analysis of how the new 3-point takedown has affected our sport. MatStats analyzes the number of scoring moves, total points per match, Margin of Victory, the change in the frequency of majors & techs, and is it time to adjust the MOV needed for a major and tech?
Slideshow for Episode 44: https://www.mattalkonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/MatStatsEp44.pdf
About Mat Stats
Welcome to the NWCA’s latest venture to help our favorite sport. Glenn Gormley, Jason Bryant and Kevin Hazard outline their effort to bring statistical analysis to wrestling. Mat Stats is the NWCA’s attempt to bring wrestling up to speed with so many other sports by incorporating stats. It is the same sport, the wrestlers are just older and better.
Mat Stats by the NWCA is a monthly podcast by the National Wrestling Coaches Association
Apple Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRadio | Podcast Addict | Castbox | RSS
Slideshow for Episode 44: https://www.mattalkonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/MatStatsEp44.pdf
About Mat Stats
Welcome to the NWCA’s latest venture to help our favorite sport. Glenn Gormley, Jason Bryant and Kevin Hazard outline their effort to bring statistical analysis to wrestling. Mat Stats is the NWCA’s attempt to bring wrestling up to speed with so many other sports by incorporating stats. It is the same sport, the wrestlers are just older and better.
Mat Stats by the NWCA is a monthly podcast by the National Wrestling Coaches Association
Apple Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRadio | Podcast Addict | Castbox | RSS
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Statistics. They can mean many things. It can be a
batting average, a win percentage, correlations, and standard deviation. But
numbers aren't just for nerds. In life, decisions need data.
In wrestling decisions, projections and hypotheticals also need data. Here
(00:24):
on Matt Stats we take historical data, theories, and statistics
and apply it to the world's oldest and greatest sport.
Now to your trio of numerical nerd balls, Glenn Gormley,
Kevin Hazard, and Jason Bryant.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
And welcome back again, wrestling fans. It is episode forty
four of the Matt Stats Show. Along with Kevin Hazzard
and Glenn Gormley, I'm Jason Bryant. This show we talk
about stat statistics and all things relevant in and around
the sport of wrestling. Consider it the moneyball of wrestling. Before
we get going, it just we got to actually do
some coordination talk here because I went sans hat, but
(01:04):
my two esteemed co hosts both went green and gold
for their respective former places of employment slash attendance.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
And it is May.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
It's May twenty seventh as we record this, so wrestling
shirt a day in May continues on these two I
don't think did this intentionally. For that I did. We
are all wearing our construction work release Orange Matt status show.
Glenn likes to say this is rocky top Volunteer Orange.
(01:37):
I'd like to think it's more of a we're a
good behavior so other than that, Other than I did
as we said earlier, I was watching a bit of
the women's softball regionals and saw some heat being thrown
off off the rubber there for Tennessee the Lady Ball's
softball program, So I did spend a fair amount of
(01:57):
time watching Tennessee do something positive for a change, Glenn.
So you'll be happy for that, including a record setting
pitch on the softball field. So I will not be
able to see the Lady Balls play at Oklahoma City
as I go down there in a couple weeks for
Honors Weekend, unless they make the final and I, by
chance get a wild hair to go see that game
(02:17):
in the middle of Honor's Weekend, which I don't know
is happening.
Speaker 3 (02:19):
But there's me giving in to you, Glenn.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
I've finally talked something about the Tennessee Volunteers that doesn't
involve my stepbrother's uncle. So there you go consider that
a win. And I'm wearing your orange work release shirt.
Speaker 4 (02:34):
And I'll give you a little joke about why we
wear orange. We wear it to the football games on Saturday,
deer hunting on Sunday, and clean it up the highway
on Monday.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Kevin, what's your excuse for the orange today?
Speaker 5 (02:47):
Yeah, I just had a wild hair. I thought I'm worried.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
I figured we'd all color coordinate today. Yeah, okay, let's
go with that.
Speaker 5 (02:57):
We were all in tuned.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
It's a vibe, I tell you what. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
So what we're gonna be in tune with today is
the now what's going to be the annual breakdown since
we have this, It is the three point takedown. Glenn
and Kevin have gone through a bunch of data from
the most recent NCAA Division One championships like we did
last year and looked at the increase in scoring, margin
of victory, scoring sequences and things of that nature. We'll
(03:24):
touch on that in a second, and wax, we all
just go right for you. Those of your watching along,
you've got this on screen. Those of you are listening
at NBCA online dot com, your podcatcher of choice or
Matt Talk online. We do have the slide show in
the show notes in the link below, so you will
check that out. So, Glenn, you always surprised me with
which musical reference you're gonna go with. This time you
(03:47):
went with Montgomery Gentry, which not that was not on
my Bengo card. No, not to You have a picture
of the actual seed this is you didn't go.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
I think you took that off your rack and took
a picture of it, didn't you. Was that on head
of rotation at the green leaf?
Speaker 4 (04:09):
Yes? It was, Yeah, I got it.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
I got an LP down here. I'm gonna take a break.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Let's see.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
I actually have two LPs down here. I actually have
them framed. And again if you're you're you're watching, you
get the full the full video here.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
So right here, I have.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Huey Lewis in the news News it's sports that's framed
and uh, I don't have a jewel case of this
next one.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
But you know what, I have to.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Do this because it's as we're our approaching Honors weekend. Uh,
this is relevant to the timeline, folks. So so hang
with me.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
There.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
I have the LP of Vision Quest Yes with Matthew Modine.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
So Terry Davis, the author of the book Vision Quest,
is going in this year to the Hall of Fame
as an Outstanding America and as a Order of Mary
and Outstanding America, one of the two. Uh sorry if
I don't Actually I do have the invite, I think
on my det No, I do not, and I submitted
that digitally. But yeah, so there's there's some time in
this with Terry Davis, the author of the book going
in and I just haven't put these back on my
(05:08):
wall yet. So but hue Lewis in the News was
the first tape I ever owned, So that's that's actually,
and I actually have a cassette somewhere in this office
that is weird Al Yankovic's in three D. So you're
gonna get a Montgomery Gentry reference. Huey Lewis vision question.
Weird Al here on the first the opening stanza of
the mat Stats show. So you never know what you're
(05:29):
really gonna get here.
Speaker 4 (05:32):
Okay, thank you for that introduction, Jason.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Yeah, that's the introduction.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
Yeah, Glenn, follow up, weird Al, buy all me try it?
Speaker 6 (05:40):
Well.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
I'll address to the question right away. Why is it title?
She couldn't changed me Montgomery Gentry has a famous song
from probably almost twenty years ago now where some girl
guy fall in love but he won't change, so she
leaves and then she comes back because she couldn't change him.
And you know that from like where we're trying to
(06:01):
change the sport with the takedown rule and now we're
explore it. So anyway, Episode forty four is our annual
follow up of a statistical analysis of how the new
three point takedown rule has affected our sport. We analyze
the number of scoring moves, the total points for match,
margin of victory, the change in frequency of majors and texts,
(06:25):
and is it time to adjust the margin of victory
for major and tech? Okay, we have as always in
this episode, you can look on that. As Jason pointed out,
there's a link if you want to just flash down
to certain car slides. You can see that they're kind
of like a table of contents. Matt's Stats is here
(06:46):
to create a statistical library for the NWCA. Mke more
your answers to do this, So this is why we
do this show. The opinions expressed on this show, as
we say all the time, do not necessarily reflect the
opinions of the nwca nor do Gormley, Jason and Kevin
always agree everything on what we say here. Okay, Matt
(07:07):
Stats is a show based on numbers. That's why it's
called Matt Stats and not Matt opinions. Hi. Now the
big news that broke today. As I got back from
the gym today, I was happy to see a text
and an email from Jason. Lehigh has added women's wrestling,
(07:27):
which is great news because where I grew up, I'm
an inter city Philly boy, and where we grew up,
Lehigh was the program back way back when when I
was a kid, they were even better than Penn State
back then. So this means a lot to me and
we and marry when I wrestle, like Coach was in
the EIWA with Lehigh. So now the NCAA has one
(07:48):
hundred and sixteen women's teams and I just think it's
great news. Go ahead, guys, tell me what you think
about Lehigh jumping on board.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Well that was one thing, says it happened.
Speaker 7 (07:58):
Now.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
I do my daily Wrestling News US letter mostly daily.
I took yesterday off. I did put out a Memorial
Day so Monday morning you got something Tuesday morning. You
did not because I've spent the time grilling out and
trying trying some smoked mac and cheese on the trigger.
But when this came out, I'm like, this does not
wait till tomorrow morning to get its own release. So,
(08:19):
you know, took some things from the Lehigh release, put
the amount of schools that we have for each division.
Gave a little primer on the history women's wrestling. I
got Kurt Crazer, who I went to college with. His daughter, Aubrey,
is going to Lehigh next year. She was the one
committed to coach for Zill Marquez before the univarsity program.
This has been in the works for quite a while.
I know when I was in panams in Monterey, the
(08:41):
talk was, Okay, when's this coming out? Is this coming
out this week? Well it took a couple more weeks
after that, but we do have Lehigh as the sixth
Division I school to offer women's wrestling, And again it
is important this is put. Let me put my semantics
hat on. Lockhaven is a Division one wrestling team. It's
a Division two schools. So Lockehaven has women's wrestling. But
(09:02):
when you're looking at how we break things up. They
are a Division two institution, so the six schools we have.
Of course we had Iowa Presbyterian, Sacred Heart, linden Wood,
Delaware State has announced the addition of a program. They
have not started competing yet, and now Lehigh is the
sixth Division one institution. Remember the ninety first championship sport
(09:22):
is women's wrestling. They will have their first official NCAAA
championship next year. It'll be a single division called National
Collegiate until they break up into further divisions. But National
Collegiate will be at a lot of people like the
interchange it's all d one. Well that's not necessarily true.
There are d ones that'll be in National Collegiate. But
the point is this is a Division one institution offering
(09:45):
winmsor and this is one you could say it's not
a power for but it is a school with some
wrestling legacy to it. As you heard Glenn talk about,
this is an important institution. Not to mention academically, lee
highest part of the Patriot League, which you know, high
performing academic institutions out east.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
So you're at a Patriotleier school, You've got you've got.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
Some academic chops and this is one thing that I
know that the women's wrestling movement has been looking for.
Iowa has very fine academics. I mean, those those big
ten schools are noted for their academics as well as
their athletics. But one thing they've been missing out before
Iowa came on boards, Like they're all small, private liberal
arts colleges and such. So now you've got a high
(10:26):
performing academic institution like Lee High.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
Again, I don't want to dispair the other school's.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Academic profiles, but Lehigh's academic profile is up there, and
that is going to make them extremely competitive, extremely quickly,
because that's a checkbox that had not been filled.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Now it is.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
And I mean you've got Audrey Jimenez who's wrestling in
Final X in a couple weeks. She's already there, like
this is this is something that They've got these good
high school girls coming in to be part of this.
So they've had the club in motion. They kept Brazil
Marquez right there with this in mind. So this is
a huge thing. We're gonna have that full championship. Le
High is gonna be an immediate, immediate top five threat.
Speaker 5 (11:08):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
You know, I was a little deep right now, So
they're gonna be hard to catch right now from the jump.
But this is something that excited me. We knew it
was coming, and the fact that Lehigh such a school
that actually wrestling is one of its signature sports. It's
it's one thing that you know, Grace Hall is one
of the iconic facilities in the country. It's one of
the top five places to watch a duel meet in
(11:29):
this country without questioning. Now the women are gonna have
that opportunity and the high school group are gonna come. Hopefully,
hopefully this lets that domino fall down and still water
because Oklahoma State has a really good women's club program,
So hopefully this leads to more In an era of
athletic uncertainty, that's the thing we're seeing programs being dropped.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
We're also seeing programs being at it.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
So that's one thing you've got is this is this
is a strange times, but hey, this is a win
for wrestling. Congratulations to Lee High and everybody that was
involved in this decision.
Speaker 3 (11:59):
So I'm stoke for this.
Speaker 7 (12:02):
The interesting interesting thing I see is we talked about
this last year or the year before and how college sports,
women's sports like basketball it was dominated by smaller schools.
The women's basketball, I think we're probably seeing the change
(12:24):
to where women's wrestling is now going to be, maybe
over the next couple of years, even more dominated by
the Big four conferences. I think they'll start to fall
on the line.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Now, yeah, we have seen that with women's basketball. Matter
of fact that we said, we talked, let's bring this
back to Glenn and his beloved Valls. Sixteen of the
sixteen teams that made the women's softball Super Regionals, fifteen
of them were from Power four conferences. The only exception
was Liberty, which had knocked off top seeded Texas A
(12:59):
and M in the regional.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
So, uh, you know, fifteen out of six.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
I mean the when the power for schools invest in
their women's sports, they quickly jump to the top.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
So obviously I was already right there.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
The question is this is like you know, Lehi can
they're going to contend, But how soon is the rest
of Division one, like you said, Kevin, gonna fall in line,
especially with the you know again this is we don't know,
we don't know about what's going to happen with House
versus in I in l all, the House versus NCAA.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
The NI L, the n L I or the NLI
is gone.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
There's too many, too many acronyms anyway, But that's where
we're at as we head into this where we're slides
six and we are already talking about some some good.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
Things that happening.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
I think we get back on track now with our
subject of today, because we'll be we have plenty more
to talk about with the addition of women's programs, including
my Deep Dive of nineteen seventy four, which we be
coming to a podcast near you soon.
Speaker 4 (13:52):
Okay, and real quick before we get in the show.
Each year I named a Tribe wrestling Athlete of the Year.
The female winner once again is Kelly Powell, who run
a three twenty seven at Boston. That's a sub eight
minute pace. She could qualify for any marathon around the
world basically except for the US Olympic Trials. That's how
(14:13):
fast he is. That's really good. So I also had
the name of mail trib Athlete of the Year award,
Captain Patrick McLachlan. On a ship in Estonia, they lifted
six hundred pounds to win. The only weighs one hundred
and seventy five pounds, So he won the award there,
and he did this with no straps and no belt.
(14:34):
That's pretty good. So congratulations of that jar head there.
Speaker 7 (14:38):
All right, all right, so this episode, now we I
think we've already talked about a little bit, and we did.
Speaker 5 (14:47):
Talk about why she couldn't change me.
Speaker 7 (14:50):
But how about we do a quick preview on the
topic for this for this week, for this month.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
Certainly, Kevin. The preview is we're gonna see the new
takedown rule affected the following total number of takedowns, escapes, reversals, backstalling,
writing time, number two, total scoring moves per match and
permit it. Number three total points scored and margin of victory,
and we refer to margin victory and a lot of
(15:17):
slides just mov number four number of regular majors texts
pins the faults in overtimes, and number five is a
time to change the margin of victory for major in tech. Okay,
and just show you, guys, though, I want to give
you my methodology I used so everyone understands where these
numbers came from. All the data in this episode are
(15:40):
from the Main's NCAA Division One championships from twenty two
to twenty five. In other words, twenty two and twenty
three are the two years immediately preceding the rule change,
then twenty four and twenty five are the only two
years we have after the rule change. Okay, Matt statues
(16:03):
both per match total points slash, number of decisions and
moves to help the viewers digest this study more easily. Now,
we analyzed six hundred and twenty bouts in each championship,
or a total of two four hundred and eighty Okay,
in case you've been following our show, there's actually six
(16:25):
hundred and forty bouts in a year. The reason we
didn't do those twenty is one year we could not
find the results for twenty rat tails, specifically how many
takedowns the scapes, so we did it for six hundred
and twenty each. Special shout out to Kevin Hazard for
putting all these numbers together for me. Okay, the default
(16:48):
matches are not counted at all. So even if like
you just to fault it because like you got hurt,
like the heavyweight for Penn State in the se reason
he just to fault it out or you start you
get hurt within a couple of seconds. We dis eliminated
that the total port side were you see the total
point side per match. Do not count a pin, okay
(17:10):
because a pen ends that. So it's difficult then to
give a thing. However, the scoring move us your takedown
back points, talling whatever in a move that ends at
a pin or counted in that. Okay. Let me give
everyone a quick stats. One oh one. You can save
pay money going to college for all this, Okay. A
(17:31):
lot of people, No, it's not cheap. A lot of
people get confused. They think if you go from a
ten percent increase to an eleven percent increase, it's a
one percent increase. No, it's not. It's a ten percent increase.
If you go from a fifty percent to a fifty one,
it's a two percent increase. Okay, neither one or a
(17:54):
one percent increase. If you just take off the percentage
side on that, people want staying the percentage difference. Okay.
So I want to get that out before we rolled
on the show.
Speaker 7 (18:09):
All right, So we're gonna talk about the new takedown
rule that you know for the last two years. We're
gonna start with takedowns. Now, did we have we seen
more takedowns since they increased to three points, did it
affect the other scoring categories? How about more scoring moves,
more scoring action? Are takedowns now more important than winning
(18:31):
the match?
Speaker 4 (18:33):
Okay, thank you for that question, Kevin. The takedowns decreased
by nine point eight percent from the two years previous
and the two years after. Now, this might be a
little counterintuitive, because the takedown went up fifty percent. It
went from two to scoring value. It went from two
to three points. Okay. Now all the other uh, scoring moves, reversals, escapes,
(19:00):
near falls all decreased. Okay, writing time decreased. When you
see that little thing there that says scoring moves on
the column second from the right, that does not include
stalling and penalties and writing time because that's not a
scoring move. The stalling is an opinion, and the writing
time is a over time event. You have to get
(19:22):
at least one minute. Okay. So if you guys want
to see it in actual numbers, these are all per year.
It says twenty two and twenty three, but it's an
arithmetic meaning, in other words, you divide the total by two.
There was one hundred and two less takedowns in the
(19:44):
most recent two years before the two years before that,
that is one less every six matches. Okay, So that's
a decent amount of takedowns. Now, when we go two
and when you look at it for total point scored, okay,
(20:06):
because even that there was only one hundred and two
less takedowns. The takedowns are now worth three points. So
the takedowns as a percentage of total points have risen
nineteen point one percent. That's a big jump, guys. Okay.
The other points, of course, have gone down because takedowns
(20:27):
have gone up as a percentage. So a summary of
what we are just saying here is there were one
hundred and two fewer takedowns per year. So it makes
sense that there were seventy five fewer reversals in escapes,
as you can see on slide twenty. Okay, because if
(20:49):
there's less takedowns, there's less chances escape or reverse. Right, Okay.
The total number of times back points were scored per
year only decreased by seven and a half per year, okay.
Scoring and penalty points went up twenty seven and a
half points per year. Now here's something you need to
(21:13):
understand about the rules. Here. We sold sixty eight and
a half fewer riding time points per year. However, as
we learn later, there were thirty five more texts recently
than in the two previous years that did not go
seven minutes. If the match doesn't go seven minutes, you
(21:34):
do not get a riding time point.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
Leah Howard at the University of Michigan, Chris Andreing at
Iowa State, and Amanda Immil out in Colorado Springs along
with myself, champion this cause because every year, even though
they are trained very well at the scorers tables, there's
always going to be in very I think some of
this comes from the referees to do a lot of
(21:58):
high school that will hold up the one point at
the end of it, like, okay, let's attack it ends
four minutes and thirty seven seconds, and the one will
go No match has to go seven minutes. I even
have stickers that have the riding time flow chart. Did
the match go seven minutes? Yes, add the riding time, No,
don't add the riding time. Thank you for pointing that out,
because that has been there. There's a you know, as
(22:20):
those of us that are sticklers for all things not fun,
I sometimes have to include myself in that although I
like fun, this is one.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Thing I like.
Speaker 2 (22:28):
It's it's it's not a hard concept to understand. But
yet they we've seen it misapplied so many times. Eventually
it's going to cost somebody a duel meat in criteria
because that extra point could be the difference in criteria three.
So it is an important factor in the tournament, not
so much, but in a duel meet the distinction is important.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
Yes, and this also, you know, there's some reason why
there's a lot fewer writing tipe point and that's one
of the big reasons because of these see there's so
many more texts. So with all that being said, it's
only a six percent decrease in writing time. It's not
really meaning meaningful enough to draw the real conclusions in
(23:11):
this studio on the show now scoring moves decreased by
six percent and scoring moves plus pins. The reason I
included this in is just like Jason's talking about being sticklers,
if somebody gets a pin, he does not get back points, okay,
because you're not rewarded the back points because the pin
(23:32):
ends the match you're.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
Holding four, they go away that they were never awarded.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
So another distinction in the dual meet more so than
the tournament.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Yeah, so what we have is a decrease, you know,
of six point five percent of the pins. So there
is a decrease in the scoring moves, okay, which you
cannot say by then that the takedown has increased the action. Okay.
The rules committee made the takedown worth three points. As
(24:06):
we see on slide twenty two. This stress is the
importance of the takedown. Okay. The numbers show that the
takedowns are more important than previously. The percentage of takedown
the total points have increased by nineteen percent. This cannot
be ignored, guys. Okay, Now, because we see a heck
(24:31):
of a lot more technicals, some people are going to say, well, gorms, mattchats, guys,
there's a lot less time in the matches because of this. Well,
the match stats around these numbers, okay, there were and
the average match was nine seconds shorter. That's it, okay,
(24:53):
or fifty one total minutes over the whole thing. Okay,
So that we're as slay change in the scoring per
minutes because what we did here, guys is it's like
twenty four we can see the scoring move permitted, Okay,
waight down four point three percent. So even when you
(25:18):
factor in all the vast increases of technicals, there is
still less scoring per minute. All right, So once again
it has decreased, all right. And when you go to takedowns,
takedowns have decreased six percent permitted. All right, So we
(25:44):
have seen less scoring action despite there being more points
all right, now here putting my stats in the holysis
hot on, okay, on top of my waven Okay, the
three point takedown rule could be fair and good for
(26:05):
the sport. But since the number of takedowns per year,
takedowns per matches, takedowns permitted have gone down, okay, there
is no way you can say the new rule has
increased action. The reason scoring is up is because the
(26:26):
value of the takedown has increased fifty percent.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Like good Glynn, this goes into our kind of our
show intro each time. This this is Matt stats, not
Matt opinion. You can make the statement that, oh, well scoring,
scoring has increased, but the action has it? You actually
have we actually have data that validates that Matt opinion,
making it a Matt fact.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
Here on Matt's stats, do we.
Speaker 4 (26:51):
Not correct Jason correct? Correct?
Speaker 3 (26:55):
I am so lame.
Speaker 4 (27:00):
Just because there's less action, okay, does not mean the
takedown rule is not good for the sport.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
Okay, is that a mad opinion or is that a
Matt's stat or or the other that's a mad opinions. Okay,
that's opinion, Jason, we got a sunder for that. We
need to have that, like Matt opinion, We need that this.
I need to update the technology on this show. Let's
add some actual bells and whistles.
Speaker 4 (27:25):
Even stats. Guys have opinions. Okay, based on you know, opinions,
that's a whole different tops Yep, correct, correct, Okay, I
personally believe the new takedown rules good for the sport.
Okay that indeed.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
I've come around to it. I thought it'd be gained more.
But one thing that again, whoever wins the match is
always kind of irrelevant to me. But then again, I
think there's been too much made about I think it
was was it Gwizdowski and McMullen. It was it was
a match I think Gwiz was in, or it was
it Coon. I can't remember which heavyweight match it was.
(28:03):
It might have been Coon and Gwiz and it was
like that was like a one point match, but it
wasn't because I mean it was like all the takedowns
were on one side. It was like escape, escape, like
a couple of escapes and reversal, and its like that
that match was closer than it should have been. The
three point takedown takes that gap and makes it more considerable.
But does that really matter the same guys still winning
(28:26):
the match, I guess, I guess the optics of the scores,
there's a more defined winner in those types of situations.
Is where I think it helps in showing which wrestler
was a little bit more dominant throughout the course of
the match, given that I've taken you down more times
than you've taken me down, or I've taken you down
more times than you've reversed position on me. So I
(28:48):
can agree with you that I think it's been it's
been a net positive good. I'm not about to push
that far yet, but I think it's been mostly positive.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
If there is a distinct.
Speaker 7 (29:01):
Okay, winners points losers points, All right, can we break
down the stat you just analyze and show how the
points scored have changed since the takedown became worth three
points In twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
Certainly, Kevin, you can see on the slide here if
if you don't, you know, if you're just listening to it,
the total points per match in the two previous years
went from nine point seven to eleven point one two.
That's an increase of fifteen percent. Okay. The margin of
victory went from four point two eight to five point
(29:40):
five eight were one point three points more thirty percent increase. Now,
the total number of points went up eight hundred and seventy.
Like we said, the winner's part of that is almost
eight hundred and fifteen and the losers is fifty five. Okay, Shu, guys,
(30:02):
this I think is very important. The winners percent of
increased points is ninety three point six percent. In other words,
almost all the increase in points are by the winner.
That's why we see the margin of victory go up.
Speaker 7 (30:22):
I think that's probably the most important nugget that came
out of the data. I mean, coaches, if you're looking
at this, ninety four percent of the scoring increase is
from the winners, and it's from takedowns. Might want to
look at that when you're at recruiting. All right, we
(30:45):
have more points almost all from the winners. But we
also must see more majors than texts. Can you show
us the statistics the stats.
Speaker 4 (30:52):
For that, certainly, Kevin. Because we have more points almost
exclusively by the winner, we're gonna have larger margin to victories. Okay,
we saw on slide twenty nine that the margin decreased
by one point three. Since the rules for the major
(31:14):
and the technical eight points fifteen points respectfully have not changed,
we're gonna see more majors and texts. You can see
on slide thirty four, okay, that the regular decisions went
down twelve percent, Majors went up twenty six, texts went
up four hundred and seventeen percent. Okay, falls are basically constant.
(31:41):
Defaults thankfully went way down, and overtimes went up four
and a half percent. Now, if you just do it
in a numerical thing, per year, the text went from
nine and a half texts a year to forty nine. Okay,
that's why it's such a huge increase. The overtimes only
(32:05):
went up two and a half overtimes per per year. Now,
no meaningful changes in pins or overtime. The overtime number
might surprise many. I have many people in the suite,
The we marry suite notionals that thought because the takedown
(32:25):
was worth three points, there would be a lot fewer overtimes.
That's not the case, Okay. No matter how you value
the takedown two, three, four points, there's still wrestlers with
a lot of parity at this level. Okay, So that
will not affect the number of overtimes.
Speaker 7 (32:43):
Right now, we've got an eight point MLV for a
major decision. We're seeing a whole lot more majors. Do
you think it's time to increase the margin victory needed
for a major? I know we've got stats on that,
and Glenn, can we talk about that certainly?
Speaker 4 (33:06):
Kevin, life is fluid, it's not static. When you change
a rule, things change, Okay, Jason mentioned earlier, you know
the softball stuff. I don't know how many people realize
out there, in college baseball there's a ten run rule
after seven innings, and in college softball there's an eight
run rule after five innings. Okay, why the difference? There's
(33:29):
two vasons baseball has more runs and softball only has
seven innings. Now, I think it would be whove our
sport to consider a ten point margin of victory for
a major I didn't just draw this out of my hat.
I did a lot of research on this. Now, the
next couple slides, starting with slide thirty nine, Okay, we
(33:54):
learned in previous episodes that we did on this show
about margin and victory. We see a downward trend and
the number of matches from two points to seven points.
Then it spikes at eight. Then we see it downward trend,
and it spikes at fifteen, at sixteen, Okay, Now that
(34:16):
is the same as we see here in the two
national tournaments, where it spikes at eight and fifteen. So
what I did, guys, is I have a lot of
slides on this that in case you're really interested, you
can see a lot of numbers. But for the sake
of this show, I'm going to try to sum it
up in Layman's terms as best I can. Okay, if
(34:42):
you on slide forty three, we can see a lag, Okay,
a two point mov lag as we call it in stats.
So I'm comparing a seven point previous margin of victory
to a nine point post rule. Okay. And these are
(35:04):
cumulative numbers, so they really even out right about seven
and eight and as you can see on slide forty four,
the cumulative percentage of eight point margin of victory and
ten point margin of victory is only one point three
(35:26):
one point three percent difference, and if you go to
seven and nine, it's less than one point difference. In
other words, when you used to have an eight point margin,
now ten point is the functional equivalent there. And you
can see on on accumulative slide that there were so
(35:54):
many more matches zero to seven then than there are now. Okay,
so it's not like everything is the same here, guys,
because the points have gone up, all right, It's a
different sport. I mean baseball, you know there's points, are
(36:18):
home runs still wont everyone's one point, so it doesn't
really matter. You don't have to change the ten based
on the number of home runs. Now how we got
to this, guys? Does it make mathematical sense to make
it ten points? Yes? It does? Okay, And what I've done,
We've done a lot of work on this. I'm not
(36:40):
sure many other people have done this much work on it.
But let's go to slide forty five. Now, I hope,
I hope Kevin and Jason, did you understand what I said? There.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
Yeah, and I think it makes it so. Yeah, a
sliding scale.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
So what was once valued at eight, the amount of results.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
Make it ten. Yeah, that's mathematically.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
I didn't need that as a justification, although seeing it
presented in such a way definitely justifies it in a
well do you have any data to back that up?
You've got the data to back it up. So I
think I think we are at a point where eight
is too few matches. You're getting that bonus point for
a takedown, a tilt, and a writing time point like
(37:26):
that's that's it could be as simple as one sequence
in writing somebody out now. Granted that's simplifying it to
its most simple terms, but yeah, I think ten makes
more sense.
Speaker 3 (37:36):
I think that that makes sense to me. What about you, Kevin?
Speaker 5 (37:41):
I really like it. And another thing that it will do.
Speaker 7 (37:45):
I think if we do this and we do the
analysis in the next couple of years, if they made
this change, I think we'd see more scoring moves. This
would increase the scoring moves because we're seeing more text,
we're seeing more more majors, and now we need to
go from eight to ten. Because if you look at
it like a scattered diagram, it's all centered around eight,
(38:08):
and then if it has to go to ten, that's
one more scoring move and one more scoring move for
match would be big get.
Speaker 3 (38:16):
Us back to where we were prior to the rule change.
Speaker 7 (38:18):
Yeah, correct, Yeah, And I think that's what they were
trying to get more scoring and they get more scoring points.
I think this would give us more scoring moves and
I think it would make put a lot more action
into the bouts.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Yes, Kevin, what do you think about the technical? Should
we should we raise that round?
Speaker 5 (38:41):
What a path doing the technical? Two?
Speaker 4 (38:45):
Okay, with the technical, we do not have statistical data
to establish a number for the technical like that we
did for the major. The reason for this is the
match terminates after fifteen plus points, so we don't know
where that number would be. So the question really boils
down in my mind to this, should we end a
(39:06):
lopside at match at fifteen and move on to the
next thing, or do we increase the number of points
needed for a technical and thereby we will see, like
Kevin and Jason mentioned previously, more scoring and more action
to get to eighteen rather than just stopping at fifteen. Okay,
(39:28):
I don't have a statistical number with that, but on
slide forty seven we can see that we saw four
bats in twenty four twenty five with a fourteen point
margin of victory, but eighty nine with a fifteen or
sixteen point margin of victory. So there was a reason
(39:51):
people were still wrestling hard after fourteen points, okay. And
then of course the match stops here after it's fifteen,
So that is a huge piece of data that shows
fifteen means something. You know, you want to get the
match over, solidify the victory, and get the extra you know,
team points. Now on episode twelve, for anybody who hasn't
(40:18):
seen it or might not remember it, we first started
out this was a margin victory show. We did this
on eight seventeen twenty two. It was called all matches
are equal, but some are more equal than others. Kevin Hazard,
I'll play your patter titles.
Speaker 3 (40:34):
What are your better titles? Glenn?
Speaker 4 (40:36):
Yes, that was one of my better titles. I okay,
So Kevin Hazard was the one that noticed on the
spike at eight and fifteen. I dubbed this Hazard's razor
coming from Okham's razor. Ockham's razor means the thing that
that's the easiest to explain to the less variables is
most likely the truth. So the reason there's a spike
(40:59):
at eight fifteen is because you get bonus points for that.
Speaker 7 (41:03):
Okay, and I also did study under Aristotle invest you know, yes, that's.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
Yeah, drill partners with Socrates, right, Yes.
Speaker 4 (41:14):
Socrates was great on his feet. Okay, that's why the.
Speaker 3 (41:18):
So figured to be moving up her body.
Speaker 2 (41:20):
Guy with a greco, yeah forgets lived.
Speaker 4 (41:25):
Right, that's a good one.
Speaker 3 (41:27):
That Notnstat's French anyway, But.
Speaker 4 (41:30):
Manstat suggests that we tried eighteen point and see what happens.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
Okay, Well, I'm gonna say that you said it in
your previous point that ten was a round number. Why
not make it another ten, one, ten, and twenty?
Speaker 4 (41:44):
Okay, Jason, I'm glad you said that because I have
this in one of the slides that it means, according
to math, eight, ten, fifteen, thirteen are all railed at numbers,
the railed at the point zero, eight, twelve, fourteen, or
even numbers. But the way the average person uses that,
(42:04):
what Jason's saying, his ten is around at number. Okay, okay,
and let's just say eight's not around at number, despite
mathematically it is the reason I didn't choose twenty Jason
was we needed two more points at eight. Okay, now
you couldn't make an argument that four more, but I
(42:27):
just thought it would be, you know, an extra takedown answer,
three more takedowns. I'm open to any suggestion because we
don't have any doubted to back it up.
Speaker 5 (42:37):
Yeah, I'm amazing.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
I'm not throwing a quick average at you. But the
difference between eight and fifteen is seven. So if you're
gonna use that sliding scale of difference, most ten and
eight is eight, why not ten and ten be ten?
I think I'm I'm just again, I'm not throwing the
stats at I'm just spitballing. What again from take the
statistical mind at it? Looking at it from a regular fit, Well,
(42:59):
ten and twenty, it's it. It makes it's it's not
eight and fifteen. I thought, having to explain eight point,
I remember explaining eight points, or one of us explained
to me my first first dueling.
Speaker 3 (43:08):
It's like eight, okay, eight eight.
Speaker 2 (43:10):
It just it seems rather arbitrary, whereas ten and twenty
seems it's just as arbitrary, but it seems less because
it's it's again, it's a rounded number that non statistician
people can be ten to twenty, you know, ten twenty
thirty four.
Speaker 3 (43:24):
You know it just it's it. Do you take the
thinking out of it?
Speaker 4 (43:28):
Yeah, Jason, where I came up with it basically was
eight to fifteen is a little bit less than double. Okay,
two more points from eight to ten would be a
little bit less than four. So maybe nineteen would have
been the better number. I'm opened any suggestions on this because,
like I said, I have no doubta to back it up.
Oh yeah.
Speaker 2 (43:48):
What we could do you also is look back at
the historic history because we've had We talked about this
before the show for those that there's only two of
us that were actually listening before the show record we
talked about the rules change back in sixty two, about
the takedowns. Now, this also takes me back to the
are where they started before they introduced the technical fall.
Speaker 3 (44:07):
There was the superior decision. What did we have eight?
We had twelve?
Speaker 2 (44:12):
We had various different before they invent you know, before
the match termination with the tech fall, we had various degrees,
you know, major decisions, superior decision, you had degrees of
even more decisions, you know, nuancing the sport even more.
I think I think at ten and twenty is simplifying
it as in a good way, so that again we
(44:34):
could we could look at this later down the line,
although I am also curious, Glenn, looking through the numbers,
the difference between you know, how many eighteen one techts
we had, because of the difference in a three point
where it's oh, fifteen one, go get that three more
points you got eighteen, it seems like eighteen to one
seems to be more frequent than it was prior to
the two point tech fall for obvious reasons, or the
(44:57):
seven you know, the fifteen nothing, sixteen one one seemed
a lot more common than the eighteen one, which obviously
makes sense because there's that extra If you're a fifteen one,
you get the three eighteen one.
Speaker 4 (45:08):
Okay, well, Jason, just so you know, the margin of
victory at seventeen in the previous year was one. Okay,
they only had one bat whole tournament. The following two
years there were six at seventeen, eighteen at zero, nineteen
at no. Eighteen at zero in the previous then they
had two. In the next one nineteen was zero and one.
Speaker 2 (45:31):
So the six isn't really statistically significant in terms of
that regard.
Speaker 4 (45:37):
Yeah, there's so few bouts after sixteen point margin of
victory that I couldn't really come up with anything. And
like you said, it's a question of whether do people
want to match over because it's unwinnable. I don't know,
you know, Yeah, Okay.
Speaker 7 (46:00):
All right, so let's talk about what we just went through.
All right, put your learning caps on children, statistical review
lesson Number one.
Speaker 2 (46:11):
Remember, I have three hundred hats in my office and
I do not have one in arms reach.
Speaker 5 (46:14):
What I got my.
Speaker 7 (46:16):
If you go from ten to eleven percent, it's a
ten percent increase, not a one percent increase. And that's
on slide fifteen. Over the last two years, takedowns ah,
that is a learning cap take downs to decrease one
championships from twenty twenty three to twenty twenty four and
(46:40):
twenty twenty five. Number three is the percentage of total
points takedowns went up. Now, this is percentage of total
points went up nineteen percent in the same time period,
while all other scoring moves went down. Scoring moves per
mint it went down four point three percent after the
three point takedown one in to effect. Number five, they
(47:03):
were on average over the last two years eight hundred
and seventy more points per tournament. NCAA turning since the
new takedown rent rule went into effect. Number six, and
this is absolutely almost mind boggling, Almost ninety four percent
of the increase in scoring came from the winner's points. Again,
(47:26):
if I'm a coach, I'm looking for guys that can
score on their feet, because that's that's where the points are.
Speaker 5 (47:36):
Number seven.
Speaker 7 (47:37):
Major decisions went up twenty six percent and text went
up four hundred and seventeen percent since the rule change.
Speaker 3 (47:48):
They're waking from.
Speaker 7 (47:49):
Kevin, I was trying to turn my damn sound off.
Of course, for a there's compelling data that suggests we
increase the margin victory for a major from eight to ten.
I think it would be interesting, or we think it
(48:10):
would be interesting to raise the tech from fifteen to eighteen,
or as Jason says, even to twenty. Even as an experiment,
there's enough data to support this. Now, our next show
will be about major changes sweeping through college sports in
general and wrestling in particular.
Speaker 4 (48:29):
Thank you, Kevin, I just wanted to let everybody know
before we end the show that next year. At the
same timeframe, we will analyze the three years previous and
the three years since the thing. We will then have three, thy,
seven and twenty matches to analyzed over six years. That
will give us enough data to basically say for sure
(48:52):
what's going on in this world. That's a big pool, guys. Okay, so.
Speaker 2 (49:00):
I guess before we close out, Glenn got I got
one question, because you know we again stats and versus opinions.
Does any of this surprise you? What is I guess,
take your your statistical delivery side of this thing. You
know you think it's been good, But was there anything
you found that was like crazy surprising? It's like, wow,
(49:22):
I did not expect that to be the case.
Speaker 4 (49:25):
I don't, you know, because I've done a lot of
the data analysis of this stuff for previous shows. I
really wasn't surprised by much at all. I did not
think the takedowns were going to go up a lot
of easy because we did the margin victory shows. I
was like, hey, there are eight points or fifteen points quicker.
(49:47):
I don't think it. She can't change me. I don't
think it changed this Ford at all. Okay, other than
the points are more if you make a touchdown worth
nine points instead of six, the points are going to
go up, right. So I really don't think it changed much.
I think the big surprise for me will be the
(50:08):
surprise at other people that it didn't change.
Speaker 2 (50:13):
I'm just curious on that because you know, when I,
you know, to draw comparison, I go through And We've
talked about this on numerous other shows, like the research
of the number of programs that I am continually digging on,
I'm like, oh, I didn't know that.
Speaker 3 (50:26):
Oh, I didn't know that.
Speaker 2 (50:28):
Like I'm sitting there looking at nineteen seventy four, I'm
going to use that as the baseline. We know that
the past title nine came in seventy two. The addition
of a divisional structure within the NCAA came in seventy four,
So I'm centering my start date. And we have NCAA
statistics starting in eighty two, so I'm looking at seventy four.
I'm focusing and digging down on that year is kind
(50:49):
of the start point for this, And I'm like, huh,
that's interesting, Like the number of schools that, like one year,
Wisconsin Superior Division three school they competed up in Division
one for one year, then would back down the Division three.
They even competed in the WI A C that year,
So then there's there's there's these surprises in the data
that come out when you dig into it. So that's
kind of what I was curious to see if there
(51:10):
was any something to be like.
Speaker 3 (51:11):
Well, wow, holy crap, I did not know that.
Speaker 2 (51:13):
So that's the kind of stuff that I kind of
geek out on when it comes to these stats.
Speaker 3 (51:17):
So that's that's where I was going with, like, whoa.
Speaker 4 (51:21):
Yeah, Jason. I think part of the reason I wasn't,
you know, surprised really at this is since I was
an undergrad and all through my entrepreneurship years, I'm such
a firm believer in the Laffler curve, okay, and I
don't need to get me explained what that means, but
basically means, if you change one thing, there's going to
be an opposite reaction that you might not that the
(51:43):
average person might not expect. So the same thing, we're
changing this takedown to three points, there's really no reason
to think you're going to have more takedowns, you know,
And you know, I don't think I've ever been to
the to the notionals or to anything else, so that
(52:03):
we marry reunion with how to having explained a life
from the curve to people and after forty years, some
people still don't understand the damn thing.
Speaker 5 (52:13):
You know, so mean to me that really the four.
Speaker 7 (52:19):
For the Winner I found that I surprised, I think
like two to one, but not nine and a half
to one. That was that was pretty surprising.
Speaker 4 (52:32):
Yeah, yeah, Kevin de Lby, isn't what surprise we did? Yeah?
We did on the previous show we saw how much
more the Winner has. And you know, when I was
doing this, I was reviewing some of the data and
then when the takedown got increased. So but yeah, I
think it's a very important point. Okay, you know, whether
(52:54):
people are surprised or not, the diet is the data. Okay,
So any other question on this topic eyes.
Speaker 3 (53:02):
Are we gonna wear the shirts more than just one
time a year in wrestling shirt? I don't know, man,
I I.
Speaker 2 (53:11):
Don't want to revisit a time where I might have
had to wear an orange shirt at that That was
never really a thing.
Speaker 3 (53:15):
Seriously, It's just.
Speaker 6 (53:16):
You know, okay, I never had to deal the community services,
so well, anyway, guys, we'll have Mike Moyaron next month
talking about this and the topics, and then we'll be
heading into July, I'll have some Fargo stuff most likely,
and then into August we'll have some convention related materials.
And that's kind of where we're looking on the show
(53:38):
moving forward, unless I end up digging up more stuff
that's gonna be like, oh wow, I didn't know that,
and it's just gonna trump one of the show topics
that we've got.
Speaker 4 (53:45):
But Glenn us Okay, guys, the next episode will be
the Business of College Wrestling. We're gonna have Mike Moore,
you're on here, the distinguished executive director of the NWCA,
and he's going to discuss with us how the sports
world has changed with the NIL transfer, portal, revenue sharing
court cases, et cetera. So until that time, say Matt time,
(54:07):
Say Matt shadew On behalf of my co host, Jason Bryant,
Kevin Hazard, Hum, Glenn Gormley, see you, Dixmall
Statistics. They can mean many things. It can be a
batting average, a win percentage, correlations, and standard deviation. But
numbers aren't just for nerds. In life, decisions need data.
In wrestling decisions, projections and hypotheticals also need data. Here
(00:24):
on Matt Stats we take historical data, theories, and statistics
and apply it to the world's oldest and greatest sport.
Now to your trio of numerical nerd balls, Glenn Gormley,
Kevin Hazard, and Jason Bryant.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
And welcome back again, wrestling fans. It is episode forty
four of the Matt Stats Show. Along with Kevin Hazzard
and Glenn Gormley, I'm Jason Bryant. This show we talk
about stat statistics and all things relevant in and around
the sport of wrestling. Consider it the moneyball of wrestling. Before
we get going, it just we got to actually do
some coordination talk here because I went sans hat, but
(01:04):
my two esteemed co hosts both went green and gold
for their respective former places of employment slash attendance.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
And it is May.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
It's May twenty seventh as we record this, so wrestling
shirt a day in May continues on these two I
don't think did this intentionally. For that I did. We
are all wearing our construction work release Orange Matt status show.
Glenn likes to say this is rocky top Volunteer Orange.
(01:37):
I'd like to think it's more of a we're a
good behavior so other than that, Other than I did
as we said earlier, I was watching a bit of
the women's softball regionals and saw some heat being thrown
off off the rubber there for Tennessee the Lady Ball's
softball program, So I did spend a fair amount of
(01:57):
time watching Tennessee do something positive for a change, Glenn.
So you'll be happy for that, including a record setting
pitch on the softball field. So I will not be
able to see the Lady Balls play at Oklahoma City
as I go down there in a couple weeks for
Honors Weekend, unless they make the final and I, by
chance get a wild hair to go see that game
(02:17):
in the middle of Honor's Weekend, which I don't know
is happening.
Speaker 3 (02:19):
But there's me giving in to you, Glenn.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
I've finally talked something about the Tennessee Volunteers that doesn't
involve my stepbrother's uncle. So there you go consider that
a win. And I'm wearing your orange work release shirt.
Speaker 4 (02:34):
And I'll give you a little joke about why we
wear orange. We wear it to the football games on Saturday,
deer hunting on Sunday, and clean it up the highway
on Monday.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Kevin, what's your excuse for the orange today?
Speaker 5 (02:47):
Yeah, I just had a wild hair. I thought I'm worried.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
I figured we'd all color coordinate today. Yeah, okay, let's
go with that.
Speaker 5 (02:57):
We were all in tuned.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
It's a vibe, I tell you what. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
So what we're gonna be in tune with today is
the now what's going to be the annual breakdown since
we have this, It is the three point takedown. Glenn
and Kevin have gone through a bunch of data from
the most recent NCAA Division One championships like we did
last year and looked at the increase in scoring, margin
of victory, scoring sequences and things of that nature. We'll
(03:24):
touch on that in a second, and wax, we all
just go right for you. Those of your watching along,
you've got this on screen. Those of you are listening
at NBCA online dot com, your podcatcher of choice or
Matt Talk online. We do have the slide show in
the show notes in the link below, so you will
check that out. So, Glenn, you always surprised me with
which musical reference you're gonna go with. This time you
(03:47):
went with Montgomery Gentry, which not that was not on
my Bengo card. No, not to You have a picture
of the actual seed this is you didn't go.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
I think you took that off your rack and took
a picture of it, didn't you. Was that on head
of rotation at the green leaf?
Speaker 4 (04:09):
Yes? It was, Yeah, I got it.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
I got an LP down here. I'm gonna take a break.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Let's see.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
I actually have two LPs down here. I actually have
them framed. And again if you're you're you're watching, you
get the full the full video here.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
So right here, I have.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Huey Lewis in the news News it's sports that's framed
and uh, I don't have a jewel case of this
next one.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
But you know what, I have to.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Do this because it's as we're our approaching Honors weekend. Uh,
this is relevant to the timeline, folks. So so hang
with me.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
There.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
I have the LP of Vision Quest Yes with Matthew Modine.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
So Terry Davis, the author of the book Vision Quest,
is going in this year to the Hall of Fame
as an Outstanding America and as a Order of Mary
and Outstanding America, one of the two. Uh sorry if
I don't Actually I do have the invite, I think
on my det No, I do not, and I submitted
that digitally. But yeah, so there's there's some time in
this with Terry Davis, the author of the book going
in and I just haven't put these back on my
(05:08):
wall yet. So but hue Lewis in the News was
the first tape I ever owned, So that's that's actually,
and I actually have a cassette somewhere in this office
that is weird Al Yankovic's in three D. So you're
gonna get a Montgomery Gentry reference. Huey Lewis vision question.
Weird Al here on the first the opening stanza of
the mat Stats show. So you never know what you're
(05:29):
really gonna get here.
Speaker 4 (05:32):
Okay, thank you for that introduction, Jason.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Yeah, that's the introduction.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
Yeah, Glenn, follow up, weird Al, buy all me try it?
Speaker 6 (05:40):
Well.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
I'll address to the question right away. Why is it title?
She couldn't changed me Montgomery Gentry has a famous song
from probably almost twenty years ago now where some girl
guy fall in love but he won't change, so she
leaves and then she comes back because she couldn't change him.
And you know that from like where we're trying to
(06:01):
change the sport with the takedown rule and now we're
explore it. So anyway, Episode forty four is our annual
follow up of a statistical analysis of how the new
three point takedown rule has affected our sport. We analyze
the number of scoring moves, the total points for match,
margin of victory, the change in frequency of majors and texts,
(06:25):
and is it time to adjust the margin of victory
for major and tech? Okay, we have as always in
this episode, you can look on that. As Jason pointed out,
there's a link if you want to just flash down
to certain car slides. You can see that they're kind
of like a table of contents. Matt's Stats is here
(06:46):
to create a statistical library for the NWCA. Mke more
your answers to do this, So this is why we
do this show. The opinions expressed on this show, as
we say all the time, do not necessarily reflect the
opinions of the nwca nor do Gormley, Jason and Kevin
always agree everything on what we say here. Okay, Matt
(07:07):
Stats is a show based on numbers. That's why it's
called Matt Stats and not Matt opinions. Hi. Now the
big news that broke today. As I got back from
the gym today, I was happy to see a text
and an email from Jason. Lehigh has added women's wrestling,
(07:27):
which is great news because where I grew up, I'm
an inter city Philly boy, and where we grew up,
Lehigh was the program back way back when when I
was a kid, they were even better than Penn State
back then. So this means a lot to me and
we and marry when I wrestle, like Coach was in
the EIWA with Lehigh. So now the NCAA has one
(07:48):
hundred and sixteen women's teams and I just think it's
great news. Go ahead, guys, tell me what you think
about Lehigh jumping on board.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Well that was one thing, says it happened.
Speaker 7 (07:58):
Now.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
I do my daily Wrestling News US letter mostly daily.
I took yesterday off. I did put out a Memorial
Day so Monday morning you got something Tuesday morning. You
did not because I've spent the time grilling out and
trying trying some smoked mac and cheese on the trigger.
But when this came out, I'm like, this does not
wait till tomorrow morning to get its own release. So,
(08:19):
you know, took some things from the Lehigh release, put
the amount of schools that we have for each division.
Gave a little primer on the history women's wrestling. I
got Kurt Crazer, who I went to college with. His daughter, Aubrey,
is going to Lehigh next year. She was the one
committed to coach for Zill Marquez before the univarsity program.
This has been in the works for quite a while.
I know when I was in panams in Monterey, the
(08:41):
talk was, Okay, when's this coming out? Is this coming
out this week? Well it took a couple more weeks
after that, but we do have Lehigh as the sixth
Division I school to offer women's wrestling, And again it
is important this is put. Let me put my semantics
hat on. Lockhaven is a Division one wrestling team. It's
a Division two schools. So Lockehaven has women's wrestling. But
(09:02):
when you're looking at how we break things up. They
are a Division two institution, so the six schools we have.
Of course we had Iowa Presbyterian, Sacred Heart, linden Wood,
Delaware State has announced the addition of a program. They
have not started competing yet, and now Lehigh is the
sixth Division one institution. Remember the ninety first championship sport
(09:22):
is women's wrestling. They will have their first official NCAAA
championship next year. It'll be a single division called National
Collegiate until they break up into further divisions. But National
Collegiate will be at a lot of people like the
interchange it's all d one. Well that's not necessarily true.
There are d ones that'll be in National Collegiate. But
the point is this is a Division one institution offering
(09:45):
winmsor and this is one you could say it's not
a power for but it is a school with some
wrestling legacy to it. As you heard Glenn talk about,
this is an important institution. Not to mention academically, lee
highest part of the Patriot League, which you know, high
performing academic institutions out east.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
So you're at a Patriotleier school, You've got you've got.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
Some academic chops and this is one thing that I
know that the women's wrestling movement has been looking for.
Iowa has very fine academics. I mean, those those big
ten schools are noted for their academics as well as
their athletics. But one thing they've been missing out before
Iowa came on boards, Like they're all small, private liberal
arts colleges and such. So now you've got a high
(10:26):
performing academic institution like Lee High.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
Again, I don't want to dispair the other school's.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Academic profiles, but Lehigh's academic profile is up there, and
that is going to make them extremely competitive, extremely quickly,
because that's a checkbox that had not been filled.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Now it is.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
And I mean you've got Audrey Jimenez who's wrestling in
Final X in a couple weeks. She's already there, like
this is this is something that They've got these good
high school girls coming in to be part of this.
So they've had the club in motion. They kept Brazil
Marquez right there with this in mind. So this is
a huge thing. We're gonna have that full championship. Le
High is gonna be an immediate, immediate top five threat.
Speaker 5 (11:08):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
You know, I was a little deep right now, So
they're gonna be hard to catch right now from the jump.
But this is something that excited me. We knew it
was coming, and the fact that Lehigh such a school
that actually wrestling is one of its signature sports. It's
it's one thing that you know, Grace Hall is one
of the iconic facilities in the country. It's one of
the top five places to watch a duel meet in
(11:29):
this country without questioning. Now the women are gonna have
that opportunity and the high school group are gonna come. Hopefully,
hopefully this lets that domino fall down and still water
because Oklahoma State has a really good women's club program,
So hopefully this leads to more In an era of
athletic uncertainty, that's the thing we're seeing programs being dropped.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
We're also seeing programs being at it.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
So that's one thing you've got is this is this
is a strange times, but hey, this is a win
for wrestling. Congratulations to Lee High and everybody that was
involved in this decision.
Speaker 3 (11:59):
So I'm stoke for this.
Speaker 7 (12:02):
The interesting interesting thing I see is we talked about
this last year or the year before and how college sports,
women's sports like basketball it was dominated by smaller schools.
The women's basketball, I think we're probably seeing the change
(12:24):
to where women's wrestling is now going to be, maybe
over the next couple of years, even more dominated by
the Big four conferences. I think they'll start to fall
on the line.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Now, yeah, we have seen that with women's basketball. Matter
of fact that we said, we talked, let's bring this
back to Glenn and his beloved Valls. Sixteen of the
sixteen teams that made the women's softball Super Regionals, fifteen
of them were from Power four conferences. The only exception
was Liberty, which had knocked off top seeded Texas A
(12:59):
and M in the regional.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
So, uh, you know, fifteen out of six.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
I mean the when the power for schools invest in
their women's sports, they quickly jump to the top.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
So obviously I was already right there.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
The question is this is like you know, Lehi can
they're going to contend, But how soon is the rest
of Division one, like you said, Kevin, gonna fall in line,
especially with the you know again this is we don't know,
we don't know about what's going to happen with House
versus in I in l all, the House versus NCAA.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
The NI L, the n L I or the NLI
is gone.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
There's too many, too many acronyms anyway, But that's where
we're at as we head into this where we're slides
six and we are already talking about some some good.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
Things that happening.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
I think we get back on track now with our
subject of today, because we'll be we have plenty more
to talk about with the addition of women's programs, including
my Deep Dive of nineteen seventy four, which we be
coming to a podcast near you soon.
Speaker 4 (13:52):
Okay, and real quick before we get in the show.
Each year I named a Tribe wrestling Athlete of the Year.
The female winner once again is Kelly Powell, who run
a three twenty seven at Boston. That's a sub eight
minute pace. She could qualify for any marathon around the
world basically except for the US Olympic Trials. That's how
(14:13):
fast he is. That's really good. So I also had
the name of mail trib Athlete of the Year award,
Captain Patrick McLachlan. On a ship in Estonia, they lifted
six hundred pounds to win. The only weighs one hundred
and seventy five pounds, So he won the award there,
and he did this with no straps and no belt.
(14:34):
That's pretty good. So congratulations of that jar head there.
Speaker 7 (14:38):
All right, all right, so this episode, now we I
think we've already talked about a little bit, and we did.
Speaker 5 (14:47):
Talk about why she couldn't change me.
Speaker 7 (14:50):
But how about we do a quick preview on the
topic for this for this week, for this month.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
Certainly, Kevin. The preview is we're gonna see the new
takedown rule affected the following total number of takedowns, escapes, reversals, backstalling,
writing time, number two, total scoring moves per match and
permit it. Number three total points scored and margin of victory,
and we refer to margin victory and a lot of
(15:17):
slides just mov number four number of regular majors texts
pins the faults in overtimes, and number five is a
time to change the margin of victory for major in tech. Okay,
and just show you, guys, though, I want to give
you my methodology I used so everyone understands where these
numbers came from. All the data in this episode are
(15:40):
from the Main's NCAA Division One championships from twenty two
to twenty five. In other words, twenty two and twenty
three are the two years immediately preceding the rule change,
then twenty four and twenty five are the only two
years we have after the rule change. Okay, Matt statues
(16:03):
both per match total points slash, number of decisions and
moves to help the viewers digest this study more easily. Now,
we analyzed six hundred and twenty bouts in each championship,
or a total of two four hundred and eighty Okay,
in case you've been following our show, there's actually six
(16:25):
hundred and forty bouts in a year. The reason we
didn't do those twenty is one year we could not
find the results for twenty rat tails, specifically how many
takedowns the scapes, so we did it for six hundred
and twenty each. Special shout out to Kevin Hazard for
putting all these numbers together for me. Okay, the default
(16:48):
matches are not counted at all. So even if like
you just to fault it because like you got hurt,
like the heavyweight for Penn State in the se reason
he just to fault it out or you start you
get hurt within a couple of seconds. We dis eliminated
that the total port side were you see the total
point side per match. Do not count a pin, okay
(17:10):
because a pen ends that. So it's difficult then to
give a thing. However, the scoring move us your takedown
back points, talling whatever in a move that ends at
a pin or counted in that. Okay. Let me give
everyone a quick stats. One oh one. You can save
pay money going to college for all this, Okay. A
(17:31):
lot of people, No, it's not cheap. A lot of
people get confused. They think if you go from a
ten percent increase to an eleven percent increase, it's a
one percent increase. No, it's not. It's a ten percent increase.
If you go from a fifty percent to a fifty one,
it's a two percent increase. Okay, neither one or a
(17:54):
one percent increase. If you just take off the percentage
side on that, people want staying the percentage difference. Okay.
So I want to get that out before we rolled
on the show.
Speaker 7 (18:09):
All right, So we're gonna talk about the new takedown
rule that you know for the last two years. We're
gonna start with takedowns. Now, did we have we seen
more takedowns since they increased to three points, did it
affect the other scoring categories? How about more scoring moves,
more scoring action? Are takedowns now more important than winning
(18:31):
the match?
Speaker 4 (18:33):
Okay, thank you for that question, Kevin. The takedowns decreased
by nine point eight percent from the two years previous
and the two years after. Now, this might be a
little counterintuitive, because the takedown went up fifty percent. It
went from two to scoring value. It went from two
to three points. Okay. Now all the other uh, scoring moves, reversals, escapes,
(19:00):
near falls all decreased. Okay, writing time decreased. When you
see that little thing there that says scoring moves on
the column second from the right, that does not include
stalling and penalties and writing time because that's not a
scoring move. The stalling is an opinion, and the writing
time is a over time event. You have to get
(19:22):
at least one minute. Okay. So if you guys want
to see it in actual numbers, these are all per year.
It says twenty two and twenty three, but it's an
arithmetic meaning, in other words, you divide the total by two.
There was one hundred and two less takedowns in the
(19:44):
most recent two years before the two years before that,
that is one less every six matches. Okay, So that's
a decent amount of takedowns. Now, when we go two
and when you look at it for total point scored, okay,
(20:06):
because even that there was only one hundred and two
less takedowns. The takedowns are now worth three points. So
the takedowns as a percentage of total points have risen
nineteen point one percent. That's a big jump, guys. Okay.
The other points, of course, have gone down because takedowns
(20:27):
have gone up as a percentage. So a summary of
what we are just saying here is there were one
hundred and two fewer takedowns per year. So it makes
sense that there were seventy five fewer reversals in escapes,
as you can see on slide twenty. Okay, because if
(20:49):
there's less takedowns, there's less chances escape or reverse. Right, Okay.
The total number of times back points were scored per
year only decreased by seven and a half per year, okay.
Scoring and penalty points went up twenty seven and a
half points per year. Now here's something you need to
(21:13):
understand about the rules. Here. We sold sixty eight and
a half fewer riding time points per year. However, as
we learn later, there were thirty five more texts recently
than in the two previous years that did not go
seven minutes. If the match doesn't go seven minutes, you
(21:34):
do not get a riding time point.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
Leah Howard at the University of Michigan, Chris Andreing at
Iowa State, and Amanda Immil out in Colorado Springs along
with myself, champion this cause because every year, even though
they are trained very well at the scorers tables, there's
always going to be in very I think some of
this comes from the referees to do a lot of
(21:58):
high school that will hold up the one point at
the end of it, like, okay, let's attack it ends
four minutes and thirty seven seconds, and the one will
go No match has to go seven minutes. I even
have stickers that have the riding time flow chart. Did
the match go seven minutes? Yes, add the riding time, No,
don't add the riding time. Thank you for pointing that out,
because that has been there. There's a you know, as
(22:20):
those of us that are sticklers for all things not fun,
I sometimes have to include myself in that although I
like fun, this is one.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Thing I like.
Speaker 2 (22:28):
It's it's it's not a hard concept to understand. But
yet they we've seen it misapplied so many times. Eventually
it's going to cost somebody a duel meat in criteria
because that extra point could be the difference in criteria three.
So it is an important factor in the tournament, not
so much, but in a duel meet the distinction is important.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
Yes, and this also, you know, there's some reason why
there's a lot fewer writing tipe point and that's one
of the big reasons because of these see there's so
many more texts. So with all that being said, it's
only a six percent decrease in writing time. It's not
really meaning meaningful enough to draw the real conclusions in
(23:11):
this studio on the show now scoring moves decreased by
six percent and scoring moves plus pins. The reason I
included this in is just like Jason's talking about being sticklers,
if somebody gets a pin, he does not get back points, okay,
because you're not rewarded the back points because the pin
(23:32):
ends the match you're.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
Holding four, they go away that they were never awarded.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
So another distinction in the dual meet more so than
the tournament.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Yeah, so what we have is a decrease, you know,
of six point five percent of the pins. So there
is a decrease in the scoring moves, okay, which you
cannot say by then that the takedown has increased the action. Okay.
The rules committee made the takedown worth three points. As
(24:06):
we see on slide twenty two. This stress is the
importance of the takedown. Okay. The numbers show that the
takedowns are more important than previously. The percentage of takedown
the total points have increased by nineteen percent. This cannot
be ignored, guys. Okay, Now, because we see a heck
(24:31):
of a lot more technicals, some people are going to say, well, gorms, mattchats, guys,
there's a lot less time in the matches because of this. Well,
the match stats around these numbers, okay, there were and
the average match was nine seconds shorter. That's it, okay,
(24:53):
or fifty one total minutes over the whole thing. Okay,
So that we're as slay change in the scoring per
minutes because what we did here, guys is it's like
twenty four we can see the scoring move permitted, Okay,
waight down four point three percent. So even when you
(25:18):
factor in all the vast increases of technicals, there is
still less scoring per minute. All right, So once again
it has decreased, all right. And when you go to takedowns,
takedowns have decreased six percent permitted. All right, So we
(25:44):
have seen less scoring action despite there being more points
all right, now here putting my stats in the holysis
hot on, okay, on top of my waven Okay, the
three point takedown rule could be fair and good for
(26:05):
the sport. But since the number of takedowns per year,
takedowns per matches, takedowns permitted have gone down, okay, there
is no way you can say the new rule has
increased action. The reason scoring is up is because the
(26:26):
value of the takedown has increased fifty percent.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Like good Glynn, this goes into our kind of our
show intro each time. This this is Matt stats, not
Matt opinion. You can make the statement that, oh, well scoring,
scoring has increased, but the action has it? You actually
have we actually have data that validates that Matt opinion,
making it a Matt fact.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
Here on Matt's stats, do we.
Speaker 4 (26:51):
Not correct Jason correct? Correct?
Speaker 3 (26:55):
I am so lame.
Speaker 4 (27:00):
Just because there's less action, okay, does not mean the
takedown rule is not good for the sport.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
Okay, is that a mad opinion or is that a
Matt's stat or or the other that's a mad opinions. Okay,
that's opinion, Jason, we got a sunder for that. We
need to have that, like Matt opinion, We need that this.
I need to update the technology on this show. Let's
add some actual bells and whistles.
Speaker 4 (27:25):
Even stats. Guys have opinions. Okay, based on you know, opinions,
that's a whole different tops Yep, correct, correct, Okay, I
personally believe the new takedown rules good for the sport.
Okay that indeed.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
I've come around to it. I thought it'd be gained more.
But one thing that again, whoever wins the match is
always kind of irrelevant to me. But then again, I
think there's been too much made about I think it
was was it Gwizdowski and McMullen. It was it was
a match I think Gwiz was in, or it was
it Coon. I can't remember which heavyweight match it was.
(28:03):
It might have been Coon and Gwiz and it was
like that was like a one point match, but it
wasn't because I mean it was like all the takedowns
were on one side. It was like escape, escape, like
a couple of escapes and reversal, and its like that
that match was closer than it should have been. The
three point takedown takes that gap and makes it more considerable.
But does that really matter the same guys still winning
(28:26):
the match, I guess, I guess the optics of the scores,
there's a more defined winner in those types of situations.
Is where I think it helps in showing which wrestler
was a little bit more dominant throughout the course of
the match, given that I've taken you down more times
than you've taken me down, or I've taken you down
more times than you've reversed position on me. So I
(28:48):
can agree with you that I think it's been it's
been a net positive good. I'm not about to push
that far yet, but I think it's been mostly positive.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
If there is a distinct.
Speaker 7 (29:01):
Okay, winners points losers points, All right, can we break
down the stat you just analyze and show how the
points scored have changed since the takedown became worth three
points In twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
Certainly, Kevin, you can see on the slide here if
if you don't, you know, if you're just listening to it,
the total points per match in the two previous years
went from nine point seven to eleven point one two.
That's an increase of fifteen percent. Okay. The margin of
victory went from four point two eight to five point
(29:40):
five eight were one point three points more thirty percent increase. Now,
the total number of points went up eight hundred and seventy.
Like we said, the winner's part of that is almost
eight hundred and fifteen and the losers is fifty five. Okay, Shu, guys,
(30:02):
this I think is very important. The winners percent of
increased points is ninety three point six percent. In other words,
almost all the increase in points are by the winner.
That's why we see the margin of victory go up.
Speaker 7 (30:22):
I think that's probably the most important nugget that came
out of the data. I mean, coaches, if you're looking
at this, ninety four percent of the scoring increase is
from the winners, and it's from takedowns. Might want to
look at that when you're at recruiting. All right, we
(30:45):
have more points almost all from the winners. But we
also must see more majors than texts. Can you show
us the statistics the stats.
Speaker 4 (30:52):
For that, certainly, Kevin. Because we have more points almost
exclusively by the winner, we're gonna have larger margin to victories. Okay,
we saw on slide twenty nine that the margin decreased
by one point three. Since the rules for the major
(31:14):
and the technical eight points fifteen points respectfully have not changed,
we're gonna see more majors and texts. You can see
on slide thirty four, okay, that the regular decisions went
down twelve percent, Majors went up twenty six, texts went
up four hundred and seventeen percent. Okay, falls are basically constant.
(31:41):
Defaults thankfully went way down, and overtimes went up four
and a half percent. Now, if you just do it
in a numerical thing, per year, the text went from
nine and a half texts a year to forty nine. Okay,
that's why it's such a huge increase. The overtimes only
(32:05):
went up two and a half overtimes per per year. Now,
no meaningful changes in pins or overtime. The overtime number
might surprise many. I have many people in the suite,
The we marry suite notionals that thought because the takedown
(32:25):
was worth three points, there would be a lot fewer overtimes.
That's not the case, Okay. No matter how you value
the takedown two, three, four points, there's still wrestlers with
a lot of parity at this level. Okay, So that
will not affect the number of overtimes.
Speaker 7 (32:43):
Right now, we've got an eight point MLV for a
major decision. We're seeing a whole lot more majors. Do
you think it's time to increase the margin victory needed
for a major? I know we've got stats on that,
and Glenn, can we talk about that certainly?
Speaker 4 (33:06):
Kevin, life is fluid, it's not static. When you change
a rule, things change, Okay, Jason mentioned earlier, you know
the softball stuff. I don't know how many people realize
out there, in college baseball there's a ten run rule
after seven innings, and in college softball there's an eight
run rule after five innings. Okay, why the difference? There's
(33:29):
two vasons baseball has more runs and softball only has
seven innings. Now, I think it would be whove our
sport to consider a ten point margin of victory for
a major I didn't just draw this out of my hat.
I did a lot of research on this. Now, the
next couple slides, starting with slide thirty nine, Okay, we
(33:54):
learned in previous episodes that we did on this show
about margin and victory. We see a downward trend and
the number of matches from two points to seven points.
Then it spikes at eight. Then we see it downward trend,
and it spikes at fifteen, at sixteen, Okay, Now that
(34:16):
is the same as we see here in the two
national tournaments, where it spikes at eight and fifteen. So
what I did, guys, is I have a lot of
slides on this that in case you're really interested, you
can see a lot of numbers. But for the sake
of this show, I'm going to try to sum it
up in Layman's terms as best I can. Okay, if
(34:42):
you on slide forty three, we can see a lag, Okay,
a two point mov lag as we call it in stats.
So I'm comparing a seven point previous margin of victory
to a nine point post rule. Okay. And these are
(35:04):
cumulative numbers, so they really even out right about seven
and eight and as you can see on slide forty four,
the cumulative percentage of eight point margin of victory and
ten point margin of victory is only one point three
(35:26):
one point three percent difference, and if you go to
seven and nine, it's less than one point difference. In
other words, when you used to have an eight point margin,
now ten point is the functional equivalent there. And you
can see on on accumulative slide that there were so
(35:54):
many more matches zero to seven then than there are now. Okay,
so it's not like everything is the same here, guys,
because the points have gone up, all right, It's a
different sport. I mean baseball, you know there's points, are
(36:18):
home runs still wont everyone's one point, so it doesn't
really matter. You don't have to change the ten based
on the number of home runs. Now how we got
to this, guys? Does it make mathematical sense to make
it ten points? Yes? It does? Okay, And what I've done,
We've done a lot of work on this. I'm not
(36:40):
sure many other people have done this much work on it.
But let's go to slide forty five. Now, I hope,
I hope Kevin and Jason, did you understand what I said? There.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
Yeah, and I think it makes it so. Yeah, a
sliding scale.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
So what was once valued at eight, the amount of results.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
Make it ten. Yeah, that's mathematically.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
I didn't need that as a justification, although seeing it
presented in such a way definitely justifies it in a
well do you have any data to back that up?
You've got the data to back it up. So I
think I think we are at a point where eight
is too few matches. You're getting that bonus point for
a takedown, a tilt, and a writing time point like
(37:26):
that's that's it could be as simple as one sequence
in writing somebody out now. Granted that's simplifying it to
its most simple terms, but yeah, I think ten makes
more sense.
Speaker 3 (37:36):
I think that that makes sense to me. What about you, Kevin?
Speaker 5 (37:41):
I really like it. And another thing that it will do.
Speaker 7 (37:45):
I think if we do this and we do the
analysis in the next couple of years, if they made
this change, I think we'd see more scoring moves. This
would increase the scoring moves because we're seeing more text,
we're seeing more more majors, and now we need to
go from eight to ten. Because if you look at
it like a scattered diagram, it's all centered around eight,
(38:08):
and then if it has to go to ten, that's
one more scoring move and one more scoring move for
match would be big get.
Speaker 3 (38:16):
Us back to where we were prior to the rule change.
Speaker 7 (38:18):
Yeah, correct, Yeah, And I think that's what they were
trying to get more scoring and they get more scoring points.
I think this would give us more scoring moves and
I think it would make put a lot more action
into the bouts.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Yes, Kevin, what do you think about the technical? Should
we should we raise that round?
Speaker 5 (38:41):
What a path doing the technical? Two?
Speaker 4 (38:45):
Okay, with the technical, we do not have statistical data
to establish a number for the technical like that we
did for the major. The reason for this is the
match terminates after fifteen plus points, so we don't know
where that number would be. So the question really boils
down in my mind to this, should we end a
(39:06):
lopside at match at fifteen and move on to the
next thing, or do we increase the number of points
needed for a technical and thereby we will see, like
Kevin and Jason mentioned previously, more scoring and more action
to get to eighteen rather than just stopping at fifteen. Okay,
(39:28):
I don't have a statistical number with that, but on
slide forty seven we can see that we saw four
bats in twenty four twenty five with a fourteen point
margin of victory, but eighty nine with a fifteen or
sixteen point margin of victory. So there was a reason
(39:51):
people were still wrestling hard after fourteen points, okay. And
then of course the match stops here after it's fifteen,
So that is a huge piece of data that shows
fifteen means something. You know, you want to get the
match over, solidify the victory, and get the extra you know,
team points. Now on episode twelve, for anybody who hasn't
(40:18):
seen it or might not remember it, we first started
out this was a margin victory show. We did this
on eight seventeen twenty two. It was called all matches
are equal, but some are more equal than others. Kevin Hazard,
I'll play your patter titles.
Speaker 3 (40:34):
What are your better titles? Glenn?
Speaker 4 (40:36):
Yes, that was one of my better titles. I okay,
So Kevin Hazard was the one that noticed on the
spike at eight and fifteen. I dubbed this Hazard's razor
coming from Okham's razor. Ockham's razor means the thing that
that's the easiest to explain to the less variables is
most likely the truth. So the reason there's a spike
(40:59):
at eight fifteen is because you get bonus points for that.
Speaker 7 (41:03):
Okay, and I also did study under Aristotle invest you know, yes, that's.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
Yeah, drill partners with Socrates, right, Yes.
Speaker 4 (41:14):
Socrates was great on his feet. Okay, that's why the.
Speaker 3 (41:18):
So figured to be moving up her body.
Speaker 2 (41:20):
Guy with a greco, yeah forgets lived.
Speaker 4 (41:25):
Right, that's a good one.
Speaker 3 (41:27):
That Notnstat's French anyway, But.
Speaker 4 (41:30):
Manstat suggests that we tried eighteen point and see what happens.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
Okay, Well, I'm gonna say that you said it in
your previous point that ten was a round number. Why
not make it another ten, one, ten, and twenty?
Speaker 4 (41:44):
Okay, Jason, I'm glad you said that because I have
this in one of the slides that it means, according
to math, eight, ten, fifteen, thirteen are all railed at numbers,
the railed at the point zero, eight, twelve, fourteen, or
even numbers. But the way the average person uses that,
(42:04):
what Jason's saying, his ten is around at number. Okay, okay,
and let's just say eight's not around at number, despite
mathematically it is the reason I didn't choose twenty Jason
was we needed two more points at eight. Okay, now
you couldn't make an argument that four more, but I
(42:27):
just thought it would be, you know, an extra takedown answer,
three more takedowns. I'm open to any suggestion because we
don't have any doubted to back it up.
Speaker 5 (42:37):
Yeah, I'm amazing.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
I'm not throwing a quick average at you. But the
difference between eight and fifteen is seven. So if you're
gonna use that sliding scale of difference, most ten and
eight is eight, why not ten and ten be ten?
I think I'm I'm just again, I'm not throwing the
stats at I'm just spitballing. What again from take the
statistical mind at it? Looking at it from a regular fit, Well,
(42:59):
ten and twenty, it's it. It makes it's it's not
eight and fifteen. I thought, having to explain eight point,
I remember explaining eight points, or one of us explained
to me my first first dueling.
Speaker 3 (43:08):
It's like eight, okay, eight eight.
Speaker 2 (43:10):
It just it seems rather arbitrary, whereas ten and twenty
seems it's just as arbitrary, but it seems less because
it's it's again, it's a rounded number that non statistician
people can be ten to twenty, you know, ten twenty
thirty four.
Speaker 3 (43:24):
You know it just it's it. Do you take the
thinking out of it?
Speaker 4 (43:28):
Yeah, Jason, where I came up with it basically was
eight to fifteen is a little bit less than double. Okay,
two more points from eight to ten would be a
little bit less than four. So maybe nineteen would have
been the better number. I'm opened any suggestions on this because,
like I said, I have no doubta to back it up.
Oh yeah.
Speaker 2 (43:48):
What we could do you also is look back at
the historic history because we've had We talked about this
before the show for those that there's only two of
us that were actually listening before the show record we
talked about the rules change back in sixty two, about
the takedowns. Now, this also takes me back to the
are where they started before they introduced the technical fall.
Speaker 3 (44:07):
There was the superior decision. What did we have eight?
We had twelve?
Speaker 2 (44:12):
We had various different before they invent you know, before
the match termination with the tech fall, we had various degrees,
you know, major decisions, superior decision, you had degrees of
even more decisions, you know, nuancing the sport even more.
I think I think at ten and twenty is simplifying
it as in a good way, so that again we
(44:34):
could we could look at this later down the line,
although I am also curious, Glenn, looking through the numbers,
the difference between you know, how many eighteen one techts
we had, because of the difference in a three point
where it's oh, fifteen one, go get that three more
points you got eighteen, it seems like eighteen to one
seems to be more frequent than it was prior to
the two point tech fall for obvious reasons, or the
(44:57):
seven you know, the fifteen nothing, sixteen one one seemed
a lot more common than the eighteen one, which obviously
makes sense because there's that extra If you're a fifteen one,
you get the three eighteen one.
Speaker 4 (45:08):
Okay, well, Jason, just so you know, the margin of
victory at seventeen in the previous year was one. Okay,
they only had one bat whole tournament. The following two
years there were six at seventeen, eighteen at zero, nineteen
at no. Eighteen at zero in the previous then they
had two. In the next one nineteen was zero and one.
Speaker 2 (45:31):
So the six isn't really statistically significant in terms of
that regard.
Speaker 4 (45:37):
Yeah, there's so few bouts after sixteen point margin of
victory that I couldn't really come up with anything. And
like you said, it's a question of whether do people
want to match over because it's unwinnable. I don't know,
you know, Yeah, Okay.
Speaker 7 (46:00):
All right, so let's talk about what we just went through.
All right, put your learning caps on children, statistical review
lesson Number one.
Speaker 2 (46:11):
Remember, I have three hundred hats in my office and
I do not have one in arms reach.
Speaker 5 (46:14):
What I got my.
Speaker 7 (46:16):
If you go from ten to eleven percent, it's a
ten percent increase, not a one percent increase. And that's
on slide fifteen. Over the last two years, takedowns ah,
that is a learning cap take downs to decrease one
championships from twenty twenty three to twenty twenty four and
(46:40):
twenty twenty five. Number three is the percentage of total
points takedowns went up. Now, this is percentage of total
points went up nineteen percent in the same time period,
while all other scoring moves went down. Scoring moves per
mint it went down four point three percent after the
three point takedown one in to effect. Number five, they
(47:03):
were on average over the last two years eight hundred
and seventy more points per tournament. NCAA turning since the
new takedown rent rule went into effect. Number six, and
this is absolutely almost mind boggling, Almost ninety four percent
of the increase in scoring came from the winner's points. Again,
(47:26):
if I'm a coach, I'm looking for guys that can
score on their feet, because that's that's where the points are.
Speaker 5 (47:36):
Number seven.
Speaker 7 (47:37):
Major decisions went up twenty six percent and text went
up four hundred and seventeen percent since the rule change.
Speaker 3 (47:48):
They're waking from.
Speaker 7 (47:49):
Kevin, I was trying to turn my damn sound off.
Of course, for a there's compelling data that suggests we
increase the margin victory for a major from eight to ten.
I think it would be interesting, or we think it
(48:10):
would be interesting to raise the tech from fifteen to eighteen,
or as Jason says, even to twenty. Even as an experiment,
there's enough data to support this. Now, our next show
will be about major changes sweeping through college sports in
general and wrestling in particular.
Speaker 4 (48:29):
Thank you, Kevin, I just wanted to let everybody know
before we end the show that next year. At the
same timeframe, we will analyze the three years previous and
the three years since the thing. We will then have three, thy,
seven and twenty matches to analyzed over six years. That
will give us enough data to basically say for sure
(48:52):
what's going on in this world. That's a big pool, guys. Okay, so.
Speaker 2 (49:00):
I guess before we close out, Glenn got I got
one question, because you know we again stats and versus opinions.
Does any of this surprise you? What is I guess,
take your your statistical delivery side of this thing. You
know you think it's been good, But was there anything
you found that was like crazy surprising? It's like, wow,
(49:22):
I did not expect that to be the case.
Speaker 4 (49:25):
I don't, you know, because I've done a lot of
the data analysis of this stuff for previous shows. I
really wasn't surprised by much at all. I did not
think the takedowns were going to go up a lot
of easy because we did the margin victory shows. I
was like, hey, there are eight points or fifteen points quicker.
(49:47):
I don't think it. She can't change me. I don't
think it changed this Ford at all. Okay, other than
the points are more if you make a touchdown worth
nine points instead of six, the points are going to
go up, right. So I really don't think it changed much.
I think the big surprise for me will be the
(50:08):
surprise at other people that it didn't change.
Speaker 2 (50:13):
I'm just curious on that because you know, when I,
you know, to draw comparison, I go through And We've
talked about this on numerous other shows, like the research
of the number of programs that I am continually digging on,
I'm like, oh, I didn't know that.
Speaker 3 (50:26):
Oh, I didn't know that.
Speaker 2 (50:28):
Like I'm sitting there looking at nineteen seventy four, I'm
going to use that as the baseline. We know that
the past title nine came in seventy two. The addition
of a divisional structure within the NCAA came in seventy four,
So I'm centering my start date. And we have NCAA
statistics starting in eighty two, so I'm looking at seventy four.
I'm focusing and digging down on that year is kind
(50:49):
of the start point for this, And I'm like, huh,
that's interesting, Like the number of schools that, like one year,
Wisconsin Superior Division three school they competed up in Division
one for one year, then would back down the Division three.
They even competed in the WI A C that year,
So then there's there's there's these surprises in the data
that come out when you dig into it. So that's
kind of what I was curious to see if there
(51:10):
was any something to be like.
Speaker 3 (51:11):
Well, wow, holy crap, I did not know that.
Speaker 2 (51:13):
So that's the kind of stuff that I kind of
geek out on when it comes to these stats.
Speaker 3 (51:17):
So that's that's where I was going with, like, whoa.
Speaker 4 (51:21):
Yeah, Jason. I think part of the reason I wasn't,
you know, surprised really at this is since I was
an undergrad and all through my entrepreneurship years, I'm such
a firm believer in the Laffler curve, okay, and I
don't need to get me explained what that means, but
basically means, if you change one thing, there's going to
be an opposite reaction that you might not that the
(51:43):
average person might not expect. So the same thing, we're
changing this takedown to three points, there's really no reason
to think you're going to have more takedowns, you know,
And you know, I don't think I've ever been to
the to the notionals or to anything else, so that
(52:03):
we marry reunion with how to having explained a life
from the curve to people and after forty years, some
people still don't understand the damn thing.
Speaker 5 (52:13):
You know, so mean to me that really the four.
Speaker 7 (52:19):
For the Winner I found that I surprised, I think
like two to one, but not nine and a half
to one. That was that was pretty surprising.
Speaker 4 (52:32):
Yeah, yeah, Kevin de Lby, isn't what surprise we did? Yeah?
We did on the previous show we saw how much
more the Winner has. And you know, when I was
doing this, I was reviewing some of the data and
then when the takedown got increased. So but yeah, I
think it's a very important point. Okay, you know, whether
(52:54):
people are surprised or not, the diet is the data. Okay,
So any other question on this topic eyes.
Speaker 3 (53:02):
Are we gonna wear the shirts more than just one
time a year in wrestling shirt? I don't know, man,
I I.
Speaker 2 (53:11):
Don't want to revisit a time where I might have
had to wear an orange shirt at that That was
never really a thing.
Speaker 3 (53:15):
Seriously, It's just.
Speaker 6 (53:16):
You know, okay, I never had to deal the community services,
so well, anyway, guys, we'll have Mike Moyaron next month
talking about this and the topics, and then we'll be
heading into July, I'll have some Fargo stuff most likely,
and then into August we'll have some convention related materials.
And that's kind of where we're looking on the show
(53:38):
moving forward, unless I end up digging up more stuff
that's gonna be like, oh wow, I didn't know that,
and it's just gonna trump one of the show topics
that we've got.
Speaker 4 (53:45):
But Glenn us Okay, guys, the next episode will be
the Business of College Wrestling. We're gonna have Mike Moore,
you're on here, the distinguished executive director of the NWCA,
and he's going to discuss with us how the sports
world has changed with the NIL transfer, portal, revenue sharing
court cases, et cetera. So until that time, say Matt time,
(54:07):
Say Matt shadew On behalf of my co host, Jason Bryant,
Kevin Hazard, Hum, Glenn Gormley, see you, Dixmall
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