October 31, 2025 • 50 mins
MatStats does it s annual dive into HS wrestling. We look at the participation numbers, if having a separate coach for the girls helps, the number of forfeits, states HS numbers and number of college teams, how the 3-point TD rule has affected HS wrestling & analyze the state of HS wrestling.
Slideshow for Episode 48: https://www.mattalkonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/MatStats48slideshow-1.pdf
Slideshow for Episode 48: https://www.mattalkonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/MatStats48slideshow-1.pdf
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Statistics. They can mean many things. It can be a
batting average, a win percentage, correlations, and standard deviation. But
numbers aren't just for nerds. In life, decisions need data.
In wrestling decisions, projections and hypotheticals also need data. Here
(00:24):
on Matt's Stats, we take historical data, theories, and statistics
and apply it to the world's oldest and greatest sport.
Now to your trio of numerical nerd balls, Glenn Gormley,
Kevin Hazard, and Jason Bryant, it is.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
The Matt's Stats Show.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
Along with Glenn Gormley and Kevin Hazard, I am Jason Bryant.
Today we are diving in to high school wrestling. But
before we even get started, the wonderful world of the
Internet and technology gives us, and it takes us. It
takes us for a ride, and it gives us pain.
And so I want to start the show. Given Tony
Hager from Ia Wressel an absolute shout out because prior
(01:06):
to the show starting, you won't even know this because
we record it and release it at different times. The
show started Glenn and Kevin watching me have almost a meltdown,
although my nerves are a lot better than they used
to be. I'm a much much calmer JB these days.
But I was like, I'm not throwing stuff, I'm not
kicking stuff. But the software we use ia Wressel also
uses and you know what, it was just not something happened.
(01:28):
There was an update last week. I got the Tony
Mellinson interview on Short Time Out. For some reason, I
couldn't do screenshare. I couldn't do it. And screen share
is vital to this episode because Glenn has his slide
show that he tells us all these stats on and
Kevin's got the questions so throughout that I'm sitting there arguing,
and I posted on the company's website, their Facebook community
with a great help from people. Well, Tony saw it
(01:49):
just happened to be saw it called me and I'm like, well,
I can't answer the phone in the middle of the show.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
He texts me.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Because reboot the computer with the program open it is something,
you know, reboot is a simple thing while the program
is open. That is not something that I had done.
I had done, I'd reinstalled everything, I'd redone the permissions.
I you know, it's it's a Mac program only. So
it was one of those things, like a random thing.
So Tony Hager has saved episode forty eight of the
Mat Status Show from oblivion because we tried to do
(02:18):
this on the zoom. The zoom recording not the way
I'm used to do it would abad it hours to
the editing. So thank you, Tony Hager. I wrestle at
iu wrestle dot com for your your actual random proovement.
The algorithm came to save the day, guys, The algorithm
save the day because it just he happened to see
it right then and there within five minutes.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
So thanks man, Tony, Thank you Ry Glenn.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
What's our topic today?
Speaker 3 (02:42):
By the way, I just I kind of gave away
the lead, but yeah, we're talking high school wrestling.
Speaker 5 (02:46):
Yes, we're talking high school of wrestling. Okay. Each year
the NWCA Mike Moyer and doctor Jackie Piquette asked Matt
Status crew to do a dive into high school wrestling
the participation numbers and a couple other topics. Separate coaches
could help out number four fifths, et cetera. So we
(03:06):
called it these are the good Old days because when
you see, guys, these are the good old days for
high school of wrestling. Okay. Then the next slide, of course,
as always, we just shows a table of contents type
thing that if you want to look back and see
on the show, you can do it. And as Jason
always says, if you're driving, listen to this. Don't look
(03:27):
at it, just listen.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Yeah, okay, because we've got the show notes again at
NWCA online dot com and matt talkonline dot com with
this very pdf you can download and follow along if
you're listening or again if you're watching on the the
NWCA site, that's where you get it to.
Speaker 5 (03:44):
Okay. And of course this show started because Moyer in
the NWCA one the library statistical stuff, so we found
the three of us to do it. And as we
always say, the opinions on this express on this show
do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Mike Moyer, doctor
Jockie Piquette, anybody else at the NWCA, Norder, Gorbley, Bryant,
(04:04):
Howsard always agreed with each other.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Yeah, and nor do all three.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
Neither were any three of us rerebroadcasting last night's World
Series game without the express written consent of Major League Baseball,
Because as we record this, that one was the eighteen
Inning game.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Yeah we weren't. We weren't watching that.
Speaker 5 (04:22):
Okay, So no, we have a monthly. We have all
the college teams that there are right now for your
college teams. And just so everybody knows, if you were
sixty years or younger, there are more NCAA men's teams
today than when you graduated college. Okay, that's a pretty
(04:44):
nice thing to know. For example, one of us here
is younger than sixty. Okay.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
So yeah, normally my wife was guessing today, like, do
we have enough slides each episode for the age.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
That you guys are. That's what we're wondering.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
So that's how you you know we're going back and now, Yes,
I am forty six years old. In case you're wondering,
my hairline is one of Kevin Hazzard's ilk. So I'm
fine with that. I make this look good. We make this.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
We do look good.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
We look good here. Yeah, I mean, I spend as
much time with your son. You could be like one
of my dads. Anyway, we don't need an ancestry DNA
to verify or anyway. We're not going down that rabbit
hole continue, all right.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
So we just were talking about it. So the topic
of this episode is.
Speaker 5 (05:31):
The topic of this episode is high school wrestling. Number
We're dealing with five things. Number one is high school
participation numbers. Number two do girls high schools see a
larger roster when they have a separate coach from the
boys team? Number three? What are the percentage of forfeits
on the high school level? How do they compare with
previous years? Number four? Is there any correlation between a
(05:56):
state number of college women's teams in the state by
state participation rates? Number five? States that allow multiple entries
in a weight class for the girls state tournament. And
then the sixth part is just a review of what
we saw on the twenty twenty four match that show
because some people have been asking questions about this. The
(06:17):
methodology on this show, guys, we use data from three
different places. And just so you guys know, these datas
are not identical, okay, because when you have fifty states
plus dcs or fifty one and a bunch of different coaches,
not everyone gets data from the same thing. But we
(06:38):
only compare Number one the National Federation of State High
School with other nfs as. Stuff. Number two is the
NWCA Optimal Performance Calculator. When we use that. We only
compare that with other OPS stuff and then the data
from flow wrestling. Thank you Brandy for help us out
(07:00):
with that. And flow wrestling uses a lot of tournaments
where the other stuff uses do all meets, and I'll
explain that. And I want to give a special urah
to Captain Patrick McLachlin, United States Marine Corps. He helped
gorm Lee out a huge amount on this. Okay without
Patrick Westling, yeah, wouldn't have been possible.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
All right.
Speaker 4 (07:23):
So National Federation of High School Wrestling numbers. How many
boys and girls high school wrestlers were there in twenty
four or twenty five, and how does this rank over
the last couple of decades, and what changes have we
seen in the last decade.
Speaker 5 (07:40):
Okay, Kevin Durret now over three hundred thousand boys wrestlers.
This is the most it's the late seventies, and I'll
address that in a couple slots. The girls now have
seventy four thousand, which is obviously the most ever in
the last decade. The boys of own over sixteen percent.
(08:02):
The girls have grown five hundred and forty five percent,
which is just off the hook. Okay, the next slide
you'll see where it has all the boys' numbers all
the way since the NFHS started this ninety seventy. And
you can see in big red bolt up top there
it's a little over three hundred thousand. Now in purple
(08:26):
you see three numbers that are above three hundred thousand,
and yes, guys, this is when Gormley was in high
school in the seventies. Okay, So what I want to
explain to everybody the numbers on those mid seventies and
late seventies include middle school numbers. Now, we don't know
(08:50):
how many of those numbers are actually middle school, so
we can't say definitively that these are the most ever. Now, however,
we can say on year's they counted just high school,
this is the most ever. Okay, just so people know
that all right. Now, you could see there where the
(09:13):
numbers of the boys in the last decade went from
two fifty eight to three hundred. That's an increase of
forty two thousand, guys. That's a mess. Okay. Forty four
of the fifty one states, So when I say fifty
one states, I'm including DC in that forty four of
that have seen a growth in the last decade, Okay,
(09:34):
and you can see the seven states that haven't whether
DC's a state or not, Illinois, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico,
New York, and Vermont. Okay. Boys wrestling is the sixth
largest high school sport. Also in the last decade the
last ten years of these top ten teams, boys wrestling
(09:59):
has the the highest growth rate, not the absolute growth.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Yes, Glenn, I want to jump in here too, because
when we did this research last year, I remember pointing
out a couple things and I'm not going to rehash
the data that we did last year. We will actually
have some recap on that. But one thing I want
to bring back up again is that number six spot.
That is where we are basically living because if you
look at football, track, basketball, soccer, baseball, those are basically
(10:26):
the sports that are in every school system everywhere. You know,
it's kind of hard to find a place that doesn't
have them, depending on you know, weather or populations.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Typically those are the things.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
We have been number six consistently, and that's a great
place for us to be. There were times that we
were behind cross country, like cross country and US were
six and seven trading through the eighties and nineties when
you know, as we were making the dip and now
we're back up in there is a significant gap between
us and cross country now. So that's that's that breathing room.
(10:56):
That being the sixth most popular boy sport had been
a talking point for the sport of wrestling for a
long time because well, six, that's not But well then
you list the other fibular Oh well, yeah, that makes
sense that we're the most popular of the you know,
I don't want to say nich sports, but in a
lot of cases we're in itch sport and in this
case we are six most popular, and that really shows
anything but a niche when you're in the top ten
(11:18):
of all the sports that are offered. So that number
six is an important number to consider and represent as well.
Speaker 5 (11:24):
So Glenn, thank you for explaining that so well. Jason, Okay,
then on the next slide, I've hadded some stuff here
because Kevin is so many other people like to see
grafts instead of just numbers, and you can see where
that see the rise of the amount of boys participants
in the last few years. Then we get to girls,
(11:44):
which is just growing off the hook. Guys seventy four
thousand a decade ago there was eleven thousand. Okay, girls
high school wrestling is now twelfth. We have more girls
wrestling in high school than one of the women's oldest
(12:04):
and dearest sports field hockey hats. Okay, we're going to
pass golf soon, folks, and we're probably going to pass
women's lacrosse in the near future too, which really shows
you how much this is just happening with women's wrestling.
And if you look at that chart on the next slide,
you can just see a spike in that, you know,
(12:28):
just random growth in this. Now some people have asked me, well,
what about if you combine them men and women combined. Well,
I'm quoting Dan Patrick here, dare I say in Fuego
you can't stop. You can't stop more year. You can
only hope to contain them. Okay, the growth we have seen,
(12:50):
and Mike and NWCA has been a huge part of this,
which so many other people involved. But we are now
eighth combined boys and girls in high school and like
Jason says, those top five are the real big sports
you can see everyday on TV, and volleyball has been
huge with women and of course costs country this but
(13:13):
we will, We'll keep climbing. With the way women are growing,
it's a great thing. And the next two slides you
could see a total participation, and then you could see
all three of them in one slide. And once again,
don't look at that when you're driving.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
All right.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
So one of the things that we did want to
talk about is the growth of women's sports and how
you know, are there different ways to get there? For example,
do they have larger rosters if there's a separate coach
from the boys team or or not.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
Okay, what we did on this is this where Captain
Patrick McLaughlin helped out, because we were talking about seventy
three hundred teams we had to go through, okay, and
we wanted to determine if there was the same coach
for the boys and girls team, or if there was
a different coach for the girls. What happened to the
(14:08):
roster size for the girls. Now, when you look at
just the absolute numbers, it goes from seven point nine
and change to twelve point seven and change. That's an
addition of four point seven and change. That doesn't sound
like a lot, However, four point seven over seven point
(14:28):
nine is almost a sixty percent increase. That is a
huge difference, guys. And there's almost the same amount of
girls with a separate coach as there are with the
same coach. So it's not like we have an outlier here. Okay,
there's a lot more teams than one, but that is
(14:48):
a huge thing. Now, putting my statistician hat on here,
we use the OPC numbers of this. There's a slight
difference in the OPC numbers for the girls as you
saw and the NFH stuff, but we're comparing OPC with
OPC just so everyone understands that we do not know
(15:14):
definitively if the roster sizes are larger because there's a
separate coach, or if there's a separate coach because the
roster sizes are larger. Okay, it's a chicken and egg thing.
There's most likely a combination of the two. However, Gormley,
(15:36):
who coached back before we had calculators and internet and
stuff like that, understands that in a high school, if
there's somebody walking around the hallway and somebody to spend
more time with you, you're more likely to have a
larger roster. We cannot prove that that's because of a
separate coach, but nobody on the other side could prove
(16:00):
that it's not because there's a separate coach. So my
recommendation is a statistician of nwc A is yes, have
a separate coach. We understand there's tight budgets and stuff
like that, and it could be tough, but let's try
to help these kids out because there's a lot of girls,
(16:22):
just like there were a lot of boys that still
are like me and Kevin and Jason, that need attention
that wrestling gives them and without wrestling, we could run
into trouble. So that are my thoughts on that. Kevin
and Jason weighed on that.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
Yeah, I think it makes sense. Let's let's go back
to Old Bull Island, my hometown. They are launching a
girls wrestling program for the first time. This is a
program that's been around, uh since the boys program has
been around since the sixties, a lot of success and
it's and it's actually one of my classmates that graduated
with that really brought this to city council, and and
and a and a college buddy that was with the
(16:59):
school boys that are all behind this stuff. So when
you have extra bodies and it's not just your you
find out when they're an add on and you've got.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Maybe one of the old grumpy coaches.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Eh, you're not going to you know, foster those numbers,
whereas you got somebody that's there for the athletes, like
having a dedicated JV coach for those kids that aren't
getting the starting time to take them to other events.
The healthier of a program, the more coaches you have,
the more people you want to come out, and your
program's healthier with boys and girls in your program. You know,
(17:30):
it's not two programs, it's one program with two teams.
So that's one thing to also consider. And you've seen
it with the colleges, the college teams that are men
and women. Again, this is all I don't want it.
What's the word. It's just observational data.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
You know.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
You look at schools that have one coach for both teams.
They're not thriving as much as they are as the teams.
The schools that have a coach for each team and
they treat them as separate teams, and but they're also
one particular unit. I know Jason Mormon when he was
at King University, he said, I don't have two programs.
I have two teams in one program. They coexist together
even though they have different coaches for each. So that's
(18:04):
something that it Why would you want to short change
your athletes, boys and girls by you know you're already
you know, like you said, Glenn, we're already an underpaid
type of you know, a coach. You know you're not
doing it for the money, Kevin, you know, it's like
these are these are jobs that you know firsthand. Brian
knows firsthand. It's it's it's an additional stipend. Yeah, it's
it's a couple extra bucks. But you do it because
(18:26):
you love the sport and you want to get back
to the kids. So ultimately, why would you not have
an opportunity to bring somebody in that can give of
themselves as well, So more coaches, happier.
Speaker 6 (18:35):
Kids also that you know, we were looking at the
women's growth and it's going it's going almost at a.
Speaker 4 (18:46):
Forty five degree angle and it's explosive increase over ten years.
That just tells you you're going to need more coaches
to continue and they're going to continue to grow like that.
It's abre were going to start leveling it out. Sometime soon,
But it doesn't matter. There's going to be one hundred
and fifty two hundred thousand girls wrestling, you know, within
(19:10):
the next five years or ten years, we're going to
need those extra coaches for that.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Glenn, I'm gonna put another one on you. We haven't
We don't think we have the data for this yet.
When you have a coach for the girls team that
is also a female coach, where are the number is
going to go there? Where's the growth rates for teams
that have their own women's coach that is a woman
that is you know again goes through things that they did.
Right now, we're coming through generations. You know, I used
(19:38):
to joke that nobody's grandma wrestled. We're getting close to
that because you know, we're getting close to that, so
that that joke is not going.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
To exist anymore. Soon.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
We're going to have generations and generations and generations. We've
got we've got girls coaching and women coaching at the
high school and college level consistently, so that that critical
mass that's seventy seven in thousand, that seventy four thousand,
when they graduate and they go to college, they're going
to come back and they want to If those that
are teaching and coaching, they're going to have that opportunity
to talk to the girl out of the hallway, whereas
(20:10):
you know, the male coach, may you know, you may
have a little bit more trepidation. Again, I have two daughters,
so I'm curious on the on you know, how their
feedback are with with their their pe teachers that are
men versus women. So you know, it's it's could be
a psychology. I don't Again, we don't have stats for that,
but I think it's something to consider.
Speaker 4 (20:27):
I think that's really interesting. I went, I was at
the dentist, which I hate to do, but I had
a crown and the and the woman who did my
crown wrestled in high school. I said, how'd you do that?
She said, I did well. I placed at the state
and she was on the boys team. I said, well,
what did you do in college? You said, well, I
didn't go. You know, it just it wasn't the same.
(20:49):
And you know, she's older. I don't think the opportunity
was there for her. The opportunity is now there, and
like you said, Jason, it's just going to keep growing.
And maybe if there was a woman coach there, she
would have gone on and wrestled in college.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Next year we broached this topic, or later on this
year we broke this topic. We'll get a women's coach
on and give the perspective because three dudes talking about
what you know, the preferences of women athletes. Yeah, we
need we need a better perspective on that one too.
Speaker 4 (21:17):
Now talked about the coaching said, what about states that
allow girls to wrestle boys versus states that only allow
girls to wrestle girls? Is there a difference in participation
growth rate that way?
Speaker 5 (21:32):
Okay? Now, of course we know the girls wrestling is
just growing off the hook, like we said, five hundred
and forty five percent, So there's growth any which way
you slice it, Okay, And in states that only have
girls versus girls, it's a four hundred and fifty eight
percent growth. In states that allow girls to wrestle boys
at any time at six hundred and ninety eight percent,
(21:54):
So there is a higher growth rate in states that
allow girls to rustle boys. Okay, But if you look
at that number, ten years ago, there was only seventeen
hundred competitors that were allowed girls versus boys states, So
it was such a small number. It's really hard to
determine that. So I really can't make a judgment out
(22:17):
of which thing is having a better growth rate. Even
that states where the girls allowed the boys does have
a better growth rate, But the bottom line is it's growing.
Girls wrestlings growing no matter what you do with it. Okay, Now,
when you get down to slide thirty six, Okay, states
(22:42):
that have girls russell girls, those states have fifteen hundred
average girls competitors. States where girls can only wrestle can
russell boys anytime have six hundred and ninety and states
where girls can wrestle after girls after Russell girls starting
at the state tournament as nineteen hundred. So when you
(23:03):
look at that, states were allowed where girls can wrestle
boys any time have lower numbers. And it could be
once again, like Jason said, you have three old guys.
We really can't say we're the fifteen year old girl
who they want to wrestle. Right, We're not fifteen and
we're not females. So it's a tough thing. But on this,
(23:25):
what I've learned the last two years in this is
any way you slice this, you know this pizza up
girls wrestling is booming, Okay, And what we learned is
population last year is the largest correlator. You can see
that on slide thirty eight. Population is the largest correlator
(23:48):
for how many participants there are in the state. So
it's really not a factor of anything specifically one state's
doing differently than the other. It's a bigger factor on
the bodies that are out there. Okay, and we're getting
to the point where girls wrestling is a mainstream sport
(24:10):
and people are just really jumping on board.
Speaker 4 (24:14):
Yeah, that's really interesting. Also, but let's let's jump back
and let's go back to boys and girls. What about
let's talk a little bit about forefeits. What's the percentage
of forefeits for both boys and girls and duel meets
in high school and college? And what was this percentage
five years ago?
Speaker 5 (24:35):
Okay, in twenty four to twenty five, all the high
schools we did do all the of all the matches,
twenty nine point nine percent for forefeits. Okay. Now, when
you look at this, you can see the states that
have the lowest four fifth percentage. On slide forty one
goes Jersey, California, Ohio, South Carolina, Minnesota, Jersey down to
(25:00):
nineteen percent, and then you see the states with the highest,
and surprisingly Nebraska, West Virginia, which you all think of
big wrestling states, are forty six and forty seven. Okay,
Connecticut as the most Okay.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
Also, of note Glenn, of that top five, only Minnesota
is a thirteen way.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
Class state, thank you, thank you.
Speaker 5 (25:24):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
Of those five, there's a couple out there, but of
those top five.
Speaker 5 (25:28):
So when you look at this thing a de fran
some correlations on the percentage of forefeits state by state
and the number of matches, which Jason just brought up,
there's no correlation whatsoever there. Okay, percentage of forefeits correlated
with number of wrestlers. There's a moderate inverse correlation, meaning
(25:51):
when there's more wrestlers in the state, there's less forefeits.
Number of teams also a moderate inverse correlation. Wrestlers per
team is a weak inverse correlation. I thought this would
be the strongest, okay, strongest inverse correlation, but it turns
out that it's not. Okay, the forefeit rate in boys
(26:15):
high school wrestling has been at thirty percent through the years,
especially the last five years. So it's remained constant even
that we got more wrestlers, and in the slide you
just saw it previously. That didn't make any sense right
away because as we saw more wrestlers, we saw an
inverse negative modern correlation. Now, with that being said, the
(26:41):
correlation is a state by state thing. We can't assume
over the time this will equate to more wrestlers and
less forfeits on that. So there's a little mathematical there.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
Now.
Speaker 5 (26:53):
When I was doing this with Jason, we talked about
the Bell curve of the what people weigh. Okay, more
people in high school weigh one hundred and fifty pounds
than weighed three hundred or weigh one hundred, Okay, so
you're gonna have the Bell curve effect in here. So
we ran this four fift percentage for weight classes, as
(27:15):
you can see on slide forty six okay, and if
you remember, it's twenty nine point nine percent for all
the two weight classes one fifteen and below. The four
fifth rate is forty seven percent. From one sixteen to
two fourteen, it's twenty six and for the two big
ones two fifteen at heavyweight it's thirty percent. So it's
(27:40):
not really the bigger weight classes that were every problem
with the forefeits, it's it's the two lower ones now.
Speaker 4 (27:46):
But you know what, but you know there is something there.
And I don't know how you'd quantify it, but so
many times I've seen it. You've got one hundred and
ninety pounds kid, and then you're second string one hundred
and ninety pounder is your two to fifteen pounder. I
think that happens a lot, and I don't know how
(28:08):
you quantified. I would venture to say if you had
true two fifteen and heavyweight, that thirty point four would
go up and it would more mirror the bell curve.
Speaker 5 (28:19):
And Kevin, you could be very right about that. And
the problem could be why at one fifteen and below
there's a lot of forfeits is because there isn't a
ninety pound kid to bump up to one oh three, okay,
where there is one hundred and eighty nine pound back
up to bump up to two fifteen. That you could
be very right about that, Kevin, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (28:41):
Now, hard to quantify, it's.
Speaker 5 (28:43):
Yeah, it's impossible to quantify. Now. Statistically speaking, less weight
glasses at duels were likely equal less forefeits. But this
is a dangerous thought. Okay, Mathematically, it's an easy to
see a solution to decrease the number of forefits, but
(29:03):
decreasing the number of weight classes gives less kids an opportunity. Now,
Gorbs is caught between being a lifelong wrestler and a statistician.
It's an easy choice for me. I'm a wrestler first, okay,
and one of the beauties of wrestling is it's for anybody,
any sex, any size. So yes, statistically, I could say
(29:26):
you want less forefits, have less weights, but I don't
like that idea.
Speaker 3 (29:30):
Also, Glenn, another thing to consider with there's there's of course,
there's caveats to to any data point. Back to Minnesota,
they allow seventh and eighth graders to complete varsity as well,
so that's another thing that adds, whereas Virginia doesn't. So
you're looking for one hundred and pound one hundred and
six pound ninth grader whereas some states New York has it.
(29:52):
I think New York has a ninety eight pounds. Some
states have slightly lighter weights. I think Montana is another one.
Off the top of my head. You're looking for seventh
or eighth grader, depending on the county. Some counties allow it.
Some here in Minnesota, some counties don't allow pre high
schoolers to to compete varsity.
Speaker 2 (30:07):
So you can it a lot.
Speaker 3 (30:08):
Easier maybe to find one hundred and six pound seventh
grader than it is one hundred and six pound ninth
grader someplaces. So that's another thing. It opens up your pool,
and that could also skew the data just a little.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Bit too on that forefeit.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
Yeah, that I don't know how much it would impact,
but it's another it's it's one of those asterisks to
consider depending on the state.
Speaker 4 (30:25):
Sure, but you know that's a real good point. That's
you know, we're looking for solutions and going to a
duel meet and seeing four or five forefeits is just
it's not right. And maybe that's something that other states
should look at. I know New York has it too right.
You don't have to be in high school to russell varsity.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
Now there's another thing with the duel meet.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
See I I kind of on the fence with this
because to me, an odd number means when you come
to a tie, it's easy you eliminate the need for
criteria at all. Match is one end of discussion. So
like in Minnesota here again to bring where I live currently,
the end of the fray when they have a dual
meets series, their state tournament is to their state champions
(31:11):
by class are determined by dual meets. That's wrestled on Thursday,
part of the state Championships at the Big Arena which
is now a Grand Casino Arene.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
It used to be called the Excel Energy Center.
Speaker 3 (31:20):
But when you if you forfeit to get a favorable advantage,
for example, you start bumping guys around. If you leave
that weight vacant, that weight has to stay vacant the
rest of the day or the rest of that competition.
So if you forfeit one forty five to bump your
good guy up to or whatever the weight clouds one
forty four to bump them up to one fifty to
(31:41):
avoid the goodbin and and give up a six, well
guess what you're leaving one forty four open the rest
of the tournament. So you see a lot, you see bumping,
but you see guys put into those places. You're not
given free sixes at the state series, in the sectional series,
So that's another thing I think Minnesota's done to curtail
that practice in the post season.
Speaker 5 (32:01):
Wow, that's interesting.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
I like that personally, love it.
Speaker 5 (32:05):
Okay, Now, Kevin, answer your question about the percentage of
forfeits for high school girls. It's almost forty six percent. Okay.
That number is of course going to be larger than boys.
Of course, girls, as we discussed last year, there is
a growth industry and boys is a mature industry in
a business term. Okay, so there's going to be more
(32:27):
forfeits for girls than there are for boys. Okay. With this,
if people are saying, well, there's just two dar many
forfeits for girls, okay, I want you guys to think
of something number of high school girls matches actually wrestled.
According to Flew, I don't know where they got all
(32:50):
their data from, from every state, from every tournament. What
I have you Okay, this is sixty one thousand matches
actually wrestled. That is ninety five times the amount of
matches we saw at the NCAA Men's Championship matches, where
(33:15):
my fellow co host Jason Bryant and my other fellow
co host, Brian Hazard's son are the main announcers. Okay,
it's ninety five of those guys. So this girl's high
school wrestling is really starting to be a big thing. Okay.
It's impossible really to look at this anyway other than that.
(33:37):
And I believe I said flow Originally that was supposed
to be OPC in this category. But that is just
how big girls high school is getting now. And I'll
use an analogy for you on that. This is how
mainstream we've become. Girls high school wrestling is mainstream. And
(34:00):
I use this fact often with people when they say
nobody goes to minor league baseball. More people go to
minor league baseball games each year than go to see
NFL football games live. Okay. Now that is because there's
so many more minor league baseball games, et cetera. Okay,
(34:21):
and there's only sixteen NFL games a week. Okay, But
this is an example of how big girls Rusty's got. Okay,
next slide, You're right, Jason, Sorry FORGID.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
I was gonna say, you trip me up there. If
you're watching the video, you see me jumping the slides.
I'm anticipating Glenn because his timing. You know, usually you
can you can anticipate it, and then sometimes I'm behind.
So if you're not getting the visual cues on this year,
like what what's going on here? Yeah, that's what happens
behind the scene. That's a little how the sausage is
made here.
Speaker 4 (34:54):
All right, So, huge growth in women's wrestling, and we've
talked about a lot correlations. Is there any correlation between
high school participation numbers and the number of four year
college teams in those states?
Speaker 5 (35:11):
Okay, we reviewed this last year and I'm going to
give it to you guys again in twenty twenty four
on the state by state. Okay, boys high school participation,
there is no correlation whatsoever between the amount of men's
four year colleges with women. There's a moderate correlation of
(35:33):
positive zero point four eighty three. Okay, Now when you
move to twenty twenty five, as there is becoming more
high school girls, the correlation goes down to zero point four.
It's still a moderate correlation, but it gives Gorm's reason
to think that soon enough, there's going to be so
many women high school vessels that this correlation will go away. Okay,
(35:58):
So to me, it seems happenstance that a college has
a women's team or a men's team, not because there's
a lot of boys or girls wrestling in that high
school state. It's a business decision, and in most schools
to get more beds in the dorms and to have
(36:19):
more people pay tuition, which is why you see the
growth in Division two in Division three and not in
Division one. Now there's a little thing here in slide
fifty five. It's called market share M one. Market share
means the market share of the single largest state, in
this case, which in girls wrestling. Okay, the single's largest
(36:44):
state is Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has thirteen percent of all the
women's college teams. The percentage of high school girls participants
in the N one. The largest state, which is California,
has twelve. You can see these numbers almost mirror each other.
(37:04):
From M one meaning top one, M two meaning top two,
et cetera. Okay, they almost mirror each other, but they're
different states. There's not a really a lot of common allies.
So this is where I got part of my thing
that it's really difficult to go to an athletic director
or president say hey, your state's got a heck of
(37:26):
a lot of boys and girls. You need more college teams.
That's not what they're there for. They're there to fill
their own on pocketbooks. So, okay, Slide fifty six and
fifty seven you see a graph of all the in
order the states are the most women's college teams. Then
slide fifty eight are states that have no women's teams.
(37:50):
We need teams in all those states. Slide fifty nine, guys,
is a graph that shows the growth rate of women's
college teams. It's up to one hundred from NCAA or NAII.
This is what schools that currently have teams. And if
you don't currently have a team, your numbers not in there.
(38:13):
So this doesn't count anyone who's out and dropped. So
there's now one hundred and seventy two of them, guys.
That's staggering, staggering.
Speaker 4 (38:22):
That graph kind of mirrors the growth of high school
wrestling participation. Now, another thing that we should probably look at,
and this is an you know, states that allow more
than one entry per team per weight at states for girls?
Are there any states that allow more than one girl?
(38:44):
And if so, have any states? And what are the states?
And does allow more than one entry per weight class
affect the growth rate compared to states that don't allow this.
Speaker 5 (38:56):
Okay, thanks for that question, Kevin. There are nine states
and there basally or Rocky Mountain, the northwest states, Idaho,
Misigan been one that's dot in the west, Montana, Nevada,
North Dakota, Oregon. You told Washington, Wyoming. Now with the
growth rate of this, okay, it's one of these things
(39:16):
that everything's growing in women's wrestling. So with one entry
there's five hundred and seventy two percent growth, With multiple
entries there's four hundred and sixty eight percent growth. I
can't tell you that multiple entries is hurting anything and
one entries is helping anything. It's just guys that there's
(39:37):
growth in all kinds of women's wrestling. You know, you
can make everyone wear a purple singlet and there would
be growth in that state, just like there are in
every other state. I mean, so we really can't say anything.
Does Gormley like the idea of allowing more than one? Yeah?
Why not? Okay, see it hurting anything? All right?
Speaker 4 (40:02):
So we talked about participation. Let's talk about the three
point takedown and decision, and half the three point takedown
at the high school level impacted the wind types major
decision text and pins. We found out looking at the
NCAA Division one, Division two it did have a major impact.
Speaker 5 (40:23):
Yeah, we did an extensive study on this the past
two years. On college. One time it was just one
year where we had three point roll. The next year
it was two years. This year is the first year
for high school boys. This is where we got the
flow data from Okay. What we did here is from
all the matches that Flow gave me access to gave
(40:46):
me the data from Okay. They're four foot percentages low.
So I immediately called brand who did a great job
give you us to this. He mailed her and she said, yes,
these are from tournaments. That's why the forfeit rate is
so low because in tournaments you don't see a forfeit
like you do and a tool meet. However, the total
(41:06):
number of forefits was below what we saw in the boys.
So we used the consistent apples and apples with this
flow data, and what we found out with the boys
is regular decisions are down twenty five percent, Major decisions
are up to twenty one percent, Tech falls up two
(41:27):
hundred and fifty four percent. Pins are almost identical, and
this mirror is exactly what we found out different numbers
and stuff like that, but mirrors the trend that we
found out in the last two years, over the last
four years in the men's Division one category. Now, one
of the reasons these numbers could be a little bit
(41:49):
different is you have all types of levels in this
seven hundred and thirty four thousand matches. Okay, in the
NCAA Division one Men's champion Ship, the worst guy that
makes that tournament's a pretty dawn good wrestler, okay. So ah,
there's not much of a variation of the talent level
(42:10):
between the thirty third seed and the first seed and
compared to what you're seeing in this chart. So that
explains what goes on there. But it is the same
thing happening, guys. When you raise the value the takedown,
the margin of victory will increase, and we see it happening.
(42:33):
Did I Okay, I I've accidentally included the road boys
that I have to change that to where it's girls.
But we see girls changing the same way too. I
made a typo there, guys, where it'says twenty twenty four
to twenty five boys. That's supposed to say girls. Okay
for this one, but girls. We saw the same change
(42:57):
in less regular decisions, more majors, more falls, and almost
consistent with pins.
Speaker 4 (43:04):
Okay, seventy Kevin, Okay, twenty twenty four research conclusions. How
about we do a recap with some of the findings
we researched our twenty twenty four to two part series
for the high school numbers, there were several areas that
(43:25):
we could draw any statistical conclusions from.
Speaker 5 (43:31):
Thank you, Kevin. I've gotten some questions again for the
same questions we answered last year, and I didn't want
to make this show to be two hours, to lose
any viewers and stuff like that, so I'll give you
a quick recap. We already said population is the largest
positive correlator for state by state, there was a large
(43:51):
positive correlation between boys and girls participation. In other words,
girls and boys want to do the same sport, which
is the world's old is the greatest sport. High school
boys wrestling is growing three and a half times faster
than all boys high school sports. There's no correlation between
boys high score participation and the number for your college teams. Okay,
(44:17):
no correlation between boys participation and the number of divisions.
Whether you have triple A, DOUBA single as no correlation.
Matt Stats believes the number of weights should be a
state by state decision. There was no correlation there on
the amount of participation, so leave it up to the
state states that keep scoring individual states have a higher
(44:39):
participation growth rate, but not enough states that do not
keep score to have any meaningful conclusions. So you can
say stuff on this, but it's really not statistical evidence
to prove anything. Matt Stats could not definitively say if
we have a state to a meet tournament if it
(45:00):
affects participation numbers, because there's so many moving parts on this.
So guys, that is Matt Status's twenty twenty five show here,
and I like Kevin Hazard, who gives us his keV notes,
this is the white paper for doctor Jackie Piquette and
Mike Morier that they can sum it up quickly and
(45:23):
give you an elevator speech your table, Kevin.
Speaker 4 (45:27):
Okay. So for the white pages, number one, over three
hundred thousand boys high school wrestlers twenty twenty twenty four
to twenty five. That's the most ever the seventies. The
numbers kind of emmett middle school kids as well, So
we had to throw those out. Two boys participate participation
(45:50):
grew sixteen percent over the last DESK decade. Girls increased
five hundred and fifty four percent, and by the way,
that sixteen percent was the most of any high school sport. Three.
When girls have a separate coach from the boys team,
the participation numbers increase almost sixty percent. Four. States that
(46:12):
only allow girls to wrestle girls the entire season or
at the state level, they have an higher arithmetic mean
participation number. Then states allow girls to wrestle boys. Five. Interestingly,
states that allow girls to wrestle boy does have a
higher growth rate than states that don't allow this. We'll
(46:33):
have to see how that plays out over the next
couple years.
Speaker 2 (46:36):
Six.
Speaker 4 (46:38):
This is almost thirty percent four foot rate in boys
high school twenty four to twenty five. This is consistent
with the rate over the last five years. First two
weight classes below one point fifteen had a forty seven
percent fourfoot rate. Girls' high school has a forty six
percent forfeit rate in twenty four to twenty five. That's
(46:58):
probably going to go down as the rate as the
number of girls increase in high school wrestling. Number eight
No correlation between state by state mail high school participation
numbers and the number of college male teams. Yet there
is a moderate positive correlation between state by state girl
(47:19):
high school participation and never college teams. But like gorm
said earlier, that's gone down since probably keep going down. Nine.
We could not definitively say that allowing more than one
entry per teen per weight had any effect on participation numbers. Ten,
(47:41):
just like we saw in the men's NCAA Division One championships,
boys and girls high school after the new takedown rules,
so fewer regular decisions, more majors in texts, and the
same rate of pins, so they almost mirrored the college
high scho almost mirrored identically to the college numbers.
Speaker 5 (48:05):
Thank you for that recap, Kevin Jason, you have anything
for the show some.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Up, No, I'm just thinking that when we look at
some of the FORFEIT data, one thing that jumped out
of me is going back to the states that allow
girls to commute against boys. I think that one probably
Again this is just looking at it and going hmmm,
eye test. So the thing is where you start girls
wrestling in a new state where there's not girls against girls,
(48:34):
so naturally you're starting from a zero. You had alluded
to it there, say there was only say seventeen hundred
to draw from, and when you double that, the numbers
are going to look significantly because eventually those states are
going to move to just girls against girls. It's not
like they're just going to stay there. So when there's
a critical mass of female athletes that then can earn
their own tournament, they move from one one distinction to another.
(48:55):
So that's almost like the minor leagues in some respect,
because that's that's where the growth point is. That that's
your growth industry. Is this those states that Okay, they
don't have a girls versus girls state tournament yet, well
actually I think almost all of them do now, but
they're still allow it, or they have one team, that
kind of stuff. I think that's where those new programs
are coming from. You plan a set, Okay, one girl
(49:16):
on the team. Now there's oh you can wrestle against girls. Well,
then there's five, and then in three years you've got
a whole team. And then now the whole state says,
all right, you're wrestling your girls state tournaments against girls.
Speaker 2 (49:25):
You gotta make the choice.
Speaker 3 (49:26):
So I think it's a progression there, so that that's
the number I'm looking at, going, I don't know about
that one. You know, that's that's again kind of the
outlier thing.
Speaker 5 (49:35):
Well, thank you for that, Jason, and I hope you
guys enjoyed the viewers enjoy this show. Now, our next
episode will be on the number of male wrestlers at
the NC Double. In the NC Double, A's okay, we're
gonna analyze this show that the numbers of males for
the next show on Wednesday, November nineteenth, twenty twenty five,
(49:56):
So tune in next month. Say Matt time, say my
channel on behalf of Jason Bryant Kevin Hazard. I'm Glenn
Gormley signing off.
Statistics. They can mean many things. It can be a
batting average, a win percentage, correlations, and standard deviation. But
numbers aren't just for nerds. In life, decisions need data.
In wrestling decisions, projections and hypotheticals also need data. Here
(00:24):
on Matt's Stats, we take historical data, theories, and statistics
and apply it to the world's oldest and greatest sport.
Now to your trio of numerical nerd balls, Glenn Gormley,
Kevin Hazard, and Jason Bryant, it is.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
The Matt's Stats Show.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
Along with Glenn Gormley and Kevin Hazard, I am Jason Bryant.
Today we are diving in to high school wrestling. But
before we even get started, the wonderful world of the
Internet and technology gives us, and it takes us. It
takes us for a ride, and it gives us pain.
And so I want to start the show. Given Tony
Hager from Ia Wressel an absolute shout out because prior
(01:06):
to the show starting, you won't even know this because
we record it and release it at different times. The
show started Glenn and Kevin watching me have almost a meltdown,
although my nerves are a lot better than they used
to be. I'm a much much calmer JB these days.
But I was like, I'm not throwing stuff, I'm not
kicking stuff. But the software we use ia Wressel also
uses and you know what, it was just not something happened.
(01:28):
There was an update last week. I got the Tony
Mellinson interview on Short Time Out. For some reason, I
couldn't do screenshare. I couldn't do it. And screen share
is vital to this episode because Glenn has his slide
show that he tells us all these stats on and
Kevin's got the questions so throughout that I'm sitting there arguing,
and I posted on the company's website, their Facebook community
with a great help from people. Well, Tony saw it
(01:49):
just happened to be saw it called me and I'm like, well,
I can't answer the phone in the middle of the show.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
He texts me.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Because reboot the computer with the program open it is something,
you know, reboot is a simple thing while the program
is open. That is not something that I had done.
I had done, I'd reinstalled everything, I'd redone the permissions.
I you know, it's it's a Mac program only. So
it was one of those things, like a random thing.
So Tony Hager has saved episode forty eight of the
Mat Status Show from oblivion because we tried to do
(02:18):
this on the zoom. The zoom recording not the way
I'm used to do it would abad it hours to
the editing. So thank you, Tony Hager. I wrestle at
iu wrestle dot com for your your actual random proovement.
The algorithm came to save the day, guys, The algorithm
save the day because it just he happened to see
it right then and there within five minutes.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
So thanks man, Tony, Thank you Ry Glenn.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
What's our topic today?
Speaker 3 (02:42):
By the way, I just I kind of gave away
the lead, but yeah, we're talking high school wrestling.
Speaker 5 (02:46):
Yes, we're talking high school of wrestling. Okay. Each year
the NWCA Mike Moyer and doctor Jackie Piquette asked Matt
Status crew to do a dive into high school wrestling
the participation numbers and a couple other topics. Separate coaches
could help out number four fifths, et cetera. So we
(03:06):
called it these are the good Old days because when
you see, guys, these are the good old days for
high school of wrestling. Okay. Then the next slide, of course,
as always, we just shows a table of contents type
thing that if you want to look back and see
on the show, you can do it. And as Jason
always says, if you're driving, listen to this. Don't look
(03:27):
at it, just listen.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Yeah, okay, because we've got the show notes again at
NWCA online dot com and matt talkonline dot com with
this very pdf you can download and follow along if
you're listening or again if you're watching on the the
NWCA site, that's where you get it to.
Speaker 5 (03:44):
Okay. And of course this show started because Moyer in
the NWCA one the library statistical stuff, so we found
the three of us to do it. And as we
always say, the opinions on this express on this show
do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Mike Moyer, doctor
Jockie Piquette, anybody else at the NWCA, Norder, Gorbley, Bryant,
(04:04):
Howsard always agreed with each other.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Yeah, and nor do all three.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
Neither were any three of us rerebroadcasting last night's World
Series game without the express written consent of Major League Baseball,
Because as we record this, that one was the eighteen
Inning game.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Yeah we weren't. We weren't watching that.
Speaker 5 (04:22):
Okay, So no, we have a monthly. We have all
the college teams that there are right now for your
college teams. And just so everybody knows, if you were
sixty years or younger, there are more NCAA men's teams
today than when you graduated college. Okay, that's a pretty
(04:44):
nice thing to know. For example, one of us here
is younger than sixty. Okay.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
So yeah, normally my wife was guessing today, like, do
we have enough slides each episode for the age.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
That you guys are. That's what we're wondering.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
So that's how you you know we're going back and now, Yes,
I am forty six years old. In case you're wondering,
my hairline is one of Kevin Hazzard's ilk. So I'm
fine with that. I make this look good. We make this.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
We do look good.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
We look good here. Yeah, I mean, I spend as
much time with your son. You could be like one
of my dads. Anyway, we don't need an ancestry DNA
to verify or anyway. We're not going down that rabbit
hole continue, all right.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
So we just were talking about it. So the topic
of this episode is.
Speaker 5 (05:31):
The topic of this episode is high school wrestling. Number
We're dealing with five things. Number one is high school
participation numbers. Number two do girls high schools see a
larger roster when they have a separate coach from the
boys team? Number three? What are the percentage of forfeits
on the high school level? How do they compare with
previous years? Number four? Is there any correlation between a
(05:56):
state number of college women's teams in the state by
state participation rates? Number five? States that allow multiple entries
in a weight class for the girls state tournament. And
then the sixth part is just a review of what
we saw on the twenty twenty four match that show
because some people have been asking questions about this. The
(06:17):
methodology on this show, guys, we use data from three
different places. And just so you guys know, these datas
are not identical, okay, because when you have fifty states
plus dcs or fifty one and a bunch of different coaches,
not everyone gets data from the same thing. But we
(06:38):
only compare Number one the National Federation of State High
School with other nfs as. Stuff. Number two is the
NWCA Optimal Performance Calculator. When we use that. We only
compare that with other OPS stuff and then the data
from flow wrestling. Thank you Brandy for help us out
(07:00):
with that. And flow wrestling uses a lot of tournaments
where the other stuff uses do all meets, and I'll
explain that. And I want to give a special urah
to Captain Patrick McLachlin, United States Marine Corps. He helped
gorm Lee out a huge amount on this. Okay without
Patrick Westling, yeah, wouldn't have been possible.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
All right.
Speaker 4 (07:23):
So National Federation of High School Wrestling numbers. How many
boys and girls high school wrestlers were there in twenty
four or twenty five, and how does this rank over
the last couple of decades, and what changes have we
seen in the last decade.
Speaker 5 (07:40):
Okay, Kevin Durret now over three hundred thousand boys wrestlers.
This is the most it's the late seventies, and I'll
address that in a couple slots. The girls now have
seventy four thousand, which is obviously the most ever in
the last decade. The boys of own over sixteen percent.
(08:02):
The girls have grown five hundred and forty five percent,
which is just off the hook. Okay, the next slide
you'll see where it has all the boys' numbers all
the way since the NFHS started this ninety seventy. And
you can see in big red bolt up top there
it's a little over three hundred thousand. Now in purple
(08:26):
you see three numbers that are above three hundred thousand,
and yes, guys, this is when Gormley was in high
school in the seventies. Okay, So what I want to
explain to everybody the numbers on those mid seventies and
late seventies include middle school numbers. Now, we don't know
(08:50):
how many of those numbers are actually middle school, so
we can't say definitively that these are the most ever. Now, however,
we can say on year's they counted just high school,
this is the most ever. Okay, just so people know
that all right. Now, you could see there where the
(09:13):
numbers of the boys in the last decade went from
two fifty eight to three hundred. That's an increase of
forty two thousand, guys. That's a mess. Okay. Forty four
of the fifty one states, So when I say fifty
one states, I'm including DC in that forty four of
that have seen a growth in the last decade, Okay,
(09:34):
and you can see the seven states that haven't whether
DC's a state or not, Illinois, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico,
New York, and Vermont. Okay. Boys wrestling is the sixth
largest high school sport. Also in the last decade the
last ten years of these top ten teams, boys wrestling
(09:59):
has the the highest growth rate, not the absolute growth.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Yes, Glenn, I want to jump in here too, because
when we did this research last year, I remember pointing
out a couple things and I'm not going to rehash
the data that we did last year. We will actually
have some recap on that. But one thing I want
to bring back up again is that number six spot.
That is where we are basically living because if you
look at football, track, basketball, soccer, baseball, those are basically
(10:26):
the sports that are in every school system everywhere. You know,
it's kind of hard to find a place that doesn't
have them, depending on you know, weather or populations.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Typically those are the things.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
We have been number six consistently, and that's a great
place for us to be. There were times that we
were behind cross country, like cross country and US were
six and seven trading through the eighties and nineties when
you know, as we were making the dip and now
we're back up in there is a significant gap between
us and cross country now. So that's that's that breathing room.
(10:56):
That being the sixth most popular boy sport had been
a talking point for the sport of wrestling for a
long time because well, six, that's not But well then
you list the other fibular Oh well, yeah, that makes
sense that we're the most popular of the you know,
I don't want to say nich sports, but in a
lot of cases we're in itch sport and in this
case we are six most popular, and that really shows
anything but a niche when you're in the top ten
(11:18):
of all the sports that are offered. So that number
six is an important number to consider and represent as well.
Speaker 5 (11:24):
So Glenn, thank you for explaining that so well. Jason, Okay,
then on the next slide, I've hadded some stuff here
because Kevin is so many other people like to see
grafts instead of just numbers, and you can see where
that see the rise of the amount of boys participants
in the last few years. Then we get to girls,
(11:44):
which is just growing off the hook. Guys seventy four
thousand a decade ago there was eleven thousand. Okay, girls
high school wrestling is now twelfth. We have more girls
wrestling in high school than one of the women's oldest
(12:04):
and dearest sports field hockey hats. Okay, we're going to
pass golf soon, folks, and we're probably going to pass
women's lacrosse in the near future too, which really shows
you how much this is just happening with women's wrestling.
And if you look at that chart on the next slide,
you can just see a spike in that, you know,
(12:28):
just random growth in this. Now some people have asked me, well,
what about if you combine them men and women combined. Well,
I'm quoting Dan Patrick here, dare I say in Fuego
you can't stop. You can't stop more year. You can
only hope to contain them. Okay, the growth we have seen,
(12:50):
and Mike and NWCA has been a huge part of this,
which so many other people involved. But we are now
eighth combined boys and girls in high school and like
Jason says, those top five are the real big sports
you can see everyday on TV, and volleyball has been
huge with women and of course costs country this but
(13:13):
we will, We'll keep climbing. With the way women are growing,
it's a great thing. And the next two slides you
could see a total participation, and then you could see
all three of them in one slide. And once again,
don't look at that when you're driving.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
All right.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
So one of the things that we did want to
talk about is the growth of women's sports and how
you know, are there different ways to get there? For example,
do they have larger rosters if there's a separate coach
from the boys team or or not.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
Okay, what we did on this is this where Captain
Patrick McLaughlin helped out, because we were talking about seventy
three hundred teams we had to go through, okay, and
we wanted to determine if there was the same coach
for the boys and girls team, or if there was
a different coach for the girls. What happened to the
(14:08):
roster size for the girls. Now, when you look at
just the absolute numbers, it goes from seven point nine
and change to twelve point seven and change. That's an
addition of four point seven and change. That doesn't sound
like a lot, However, four point seven over seven point
(14:28):
nine is almost a sixty percent increase. That is a
huge difference, guys. And there's almost the same amount of
girls with a separate coach as there are with the
same coach. So it's not like we have an outlier here. Okay,
there's a lot more teams than one, but that is
(14:48):
a huge thing. Now, putting my statistician hat on here,
we use the OPC numbers of this. There's a slight
difference in the OPC numbers for the girls as you
saw and the NFH stuff, but we're comparing OPC with
OPC just so everyone understands that we do not know
(15:14):
definitively if the roster sizes are larger because there's a
separate coach, or if there's a separate coach because the
roster sizes are larger. Okay, it's a chicken and egg thing.
There's most likely a combination of the two. However, Gormley,
(15:36):
who coached back before we had calculators and internet and
stuff like that, understands that in a high school, if
there's somebody walking around the hallway and somebody to spend
more time with you, you're more likely to have a
larger roster. We cannot prove that that's because of a
separate coach, but nobody on the other side could prove
(16:00):
that it's not because there's a separate coach. So my
recommendation is a statistician of nwc A is yes, have
a separate coach. We understand there's tight budgets and stuff
like that, and it could be tough, but let's try
to help these kids out because there's a lot of girls,
(16:22):
just like there were a lot of boys that still
are like me and Kevin and Jason, that need attention
that wrestling gives them and without wrestling, we could run
into trouble. So that are my thoughts on that. Kevin
and Jason weighed on that.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
Yeah, I think it makes sense. Let's let's go back
to Old Bull Island, my hometown. They are launching a
girls wrestling program for the first time. This is a
program that's been around, uh since the boys program has
been around since the sixties, a lot of success and
it's and it's actually one of my classmates that graduated
with that really brought this to city council, and and
and a and a college buddy that was with the
(16:59):
school boys that are all behind this stuff. So when
you have extra bodies and it's not just your you
find out when they're an add on and you've got.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Maybe one of the old grumpy coaches.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Eh, you're not going to you know, foster those numbers,
whereas you got somebody that's there for the athletes, like
having a dedicated JV coach for those kids that aren't
getting the starting time to take them to other events.
The healthier of a program, the more coaches you have,
the more people you want to come out, and your
program's healthier with boys and girls in your program. You know,
(17:30):
it's not two programs, it's one program with two teams.
So that's one thing to also consider. And you've seen
it with the colleges, the college teams that are men
and women. Again, this is all I don't want it.
What's the word. It's just observational data.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
You know.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
You look at schools that have one coach for both teams.
They're not thriving as much as they are as the teams.
The schools that have a coach for each team and
they treat them as separate teams, and but they're also
one particular unit. I know Jason Mormon when he was
at King University, he said, I don't have two programs.
I have two teams in one program. They coexist together
even though they have different coaches for each. So that's
(18:04):
something that it Why would you want to short change
your athletes, boys and girls by you know you're already
you know, like you said, Glenn, we're already an underpaid
type of you know, a coach. You know you're not
doing it for the money, Kevin, you know, it's like
these are these are jobs that you know firsthand. Brian
knows firsthand. It's it's it's an additional stipend. Yeah, it's
it's a couple extra bucks. But you do it because
(18:26):
you love the sport and you want to get back
to the kids. So ultimately, why would you not have
an opportunity to bring somebody in that can give of
themselves as well, So more coaches, happier.
Speaker 6 (18:35):
Kids also that you know, we were looking at the
women's growth and it's going it's going almost at a.
Speaker 4 (18:46):
Forty five degree angle and it's explosive increase over ten years.
That just tells you you're going to need more coaches
to continue and they're going to continue to grow like that.
It's abre were going to start leveling it out. Sometime soon,
But it doesn't matter. There's going to be one hundred
and fifty two hundred thousand girls wrestling, you know, within
(19:10):
the next five years or ten years, we're going to
need those extra coaches for that.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Glenn, I'm gonna put another one on you. We haven't
We don't think we have the data for this yet.
When you have a coach for the girls team that
is also a female coach, where are the number is
going to go there? Where's the growth rates for teams
that have their own women's coach that is a woman
that is you know again goes through things that they did.
Right now, we're coming through generations. You know, I used
(19:38):
to joke that nobody's grandma wrestled. We're getting close to
that because you know, we're getting close to that, so
that that joke is not going.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
To exist anymore. Soon.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
We're going to have generations and generations and generations. We've
got we've got girls coaching and women coaching at the
high school and college level consistently, so that that critical
mass that's seventy seven in thousand, that seventy four thousand,
when they graduate and they go to college, they're going
to come back and they want to If those that
are teaching and coaching, they're going to have that opportunity
to talk to the girl out of the hallway, whereas
(20:10):
you know, the male coach, may you know, you may
have a little bit more trepidation. Again, I have two daughters,
so I'm curious on the on you know, how their
feedback are with with their their pe teachers that are
men versus women. So you know, it's it's could be
a psychology. I don't Again, we don't have stats for that,
but I think it's something to consider.
Speaker 4 (20:27):
I think that's really interesting. I went, I was at
the dentist, which I hate to do, but I had
a crown and the and the woman who did my
crown wrestled in high school. I said, how'd you do that?
She said, I did well. I placed at the state
and she was on the boys team. I said, well,
what did you do in college? You said, well, I
didn't go. You know, it just it wasn't the same.
(20:49):
And you know, she's older. I don't think the opportunity
was there for her. The opportunity is now there, and
like you said, Jason, it's just going to keep growing.
And maybe if there was a woman coach there, she
would have gone on and wrestled in college.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Next year we broached this topic, or later on this
year we broke this topic. We'll get a women's coach
on and give the perspective because three dudes talking about
what you know, the preferences of women athletes. Yeah, we
need we need a better perspective on that one too.
Speaker 4 (21:17):
Now talked about the coaching said, what about states that
allow girls to wrestle boys versus states that only allow
girls to wrestle girls? Is there a difference in participation
growth rate that way?
Speaker 5 (21:32):
Okay? Now, of course we know the girls wrestling is
just growing off the hook, like we said, five hundred
and forty five percent, So there's growth any which way
you slice it, Okay, And in states that only have
girls versus girls, it's a four hundred and fifty eight
percent growth. In states that allow girls to wrestle boys
at any time at six hundred and ninety eight percent,
(21:54):
So there is a higher growth rate in states that
allow girls to rustle boys. Okay, But if you look
at that number, ten years ago, there was only seventeen
hundred competitors that were allowed girls versus boys states, So
it was such a small number. It's really hard to
determine that. So I really can't make a judgment out
(22:17):
of which thing is having a better growth rate. Even
that states where the girls allowed the boys does have
a better growth rate, But the bottom line is it's growing.
Girls wrestlings growing no matter what you do with it. Okay, Now,
when you get down to slide thirty six, Okay, states
(22:42):
that have girls russell girls, those states have fifteen hundred
average girls competitors. States where girls can only wrestle can
russell boys anytime have six hundred and ninety and states
where girls can wrestle after girls after Russell girls starting
at the state tournament as nineteen hundred. So when you
(23:03):
look at that, states were allowed where girls can wrestle
boys any time have lower numbers. And it could be
once again, like Jason said, you have three old guys.
We really can't say we're the fifteen year old girl
who they want to wrestle. Right, We're not fifteen and
we're not females. So it's a tough thing. But on this,
(23:25):
what I've learned the last two years in this is
any way you slice this, you know this pizza up
girls wrestling is booming, Okay, And what we learned is
population last year is the largest correlator. You can see
that on slide thirty eight. Population is the largest correlator
(23:48):
for how many participants there are in the state. So
it's really not a factor of anything specifically one state's
doing differently than the other. It's a bigger factor on
the bodies that are out there. Okay, and we're getting
to the point where girls wrestling is a mainstream sport
(24:10):
and people are just really jumping on board.
Speaker 4 (24:14):
Yeah, that's really interesting. Also, but let's let's jump back
and let's go back to boys and girls. What about
let's talk a little bit about forefeits. What's the percentage
of forefeits for both boys and girls and duel meets
in high school and college? And what was this percentage
five years ago?
Speaker 5 (24:35):
Okay, in twenty four to twenty five, all the high
schools we did do all the of all the matches,
twenty nine point nine percent for forefeits. Okay. Now, when
you look at this, you can see the states that
have the lowest four fifth percentage. On slide forty one
goes Jersey, California, Ohio, South Carolina, Minnesota, Jersey down to
(25:00):
nineteen percent, and then you see the states with the highest,
and surprisingly Nebraska, West Virginia, which you all think of
big wrestling states, are forty six and forty seven. Okay,
Connecticut as the most Okay.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
Also, of note Glenn, of that top five, only Minnesota
is a thirteen way.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
Class state, thank you, thank you.
Speaker 5 (25:24):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
Of those five, there's a couple out there, but of
those top five.
Speaker 5 (25:28):
So when you look at this thing a de fran
some correlations on the percentage of forefeits state by state
and the number of matches, which Jason just brought up,
there's no correlation whatsoever there. Okay, percentage of forefeits correlated
with number of wrestlers. There's a moderate inverse correlation, meaning
(25:51):
when there's more wrestlers in the state, there's less forefeits.
Number of teams also a moderate inverse correlation. Wrestlers per
team is a weak inverse correlation. I thought this would
be the strongest, okay, strongest inverse correlation, but it turns
out that it's not. Okay, the forefeit rate in boys
(26:15):
high school wrestling has been at thirty percent through the years,
especially the last five years. So it's remained constant even
that we got more wrestlers, and in the slide you
just saw it previously. That didn't make any sense right
away because as we saw more wrestlers, we saw an
inverse negative modern correlation. Now, with that being said, the
(26:41):
correlation is a state by state thing. We can't assume
over the time this will equate to more wrestlers and
less forfeits on that. So there's a little mathematical there.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
Now.
Speaker 5 (26:53):
When I was doing this with Jason, we talked about
the Bell curve of the what people weigh. Okay, more
people in high school weigh one hundred and fifty pounds
than weighed three hundred or weigh one hundred, Okay, so
you're gonna have the Bell curve effect in here. So
we ran this four fift percentage for weight classes, as
(27:15):
you can see on slide forty six okay, and if
you remember, it's twenty nine point nine percent for all
the two weight classes one fifteen and below. The four
fifth rate is forty seven percent. From one sixteen to
two fourteen, it's twenty six and for the two big
ones two fifteen at heavyweight it's thirty percent. So it's
(27:40):
not really the bigger weight classes that were every problem
with the forefeits, it's it's the two lower ones now.
Speaker 4 (27:46):
But you know what, but you know there is something there.
And I don't know how you'd quantify it, but so
many times I've seen it. You've got one hundred and
ninety pounds kid, and then you're second string one hundred
and ninety pounder is your two to fifteen pounder. I
think that happens a lot, and I don't know how
(28:08):
you quantified. I would venture to say if you had
true two fifteen and heavyweight, that thirty point four would
go up and it would more mirror the bell curve.
Speaker 5 (28:19):
And Kevin, you could be very right about that. And
the problem could be why at one fifteen and below
there's a lot of forfeits is because there isn't a
ninety pound kid to bump up to one oh three, okay,
where there is one hundred and eighty nine pound back
up to bump up to two fifteen. That you could
be very right about that, Kevin, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (28:41):
Now, hard to quantify, it's.
Speaker 5 (28:43):
Yeah, it's impossible to quantify. Now. Statistically speaking, less weight
glasses at duels were likely equal less forefeits. But this
is a dangerous thought. Okay, Mathematically, it's an easy to
see a solution to decrease the number of forefits, but
(29:03):
decreasing the number of weight classes gives less kids an opportunity. Now,
Gorbs is caught between being a lifelong wrestler and a statistician.
It's an easy choice for me. I'm a wrestler first, okay,
and one of the beauties of wrestling is it's for anybody,
any sex, any size. So yes, statistically, I could say
(29:26):
you want less forefits, have less weights, but I don't
like that idea.
Speaker 3 (29:30):
Also, Glenn, another thing to consider with there's there's of course,
there's caveats to to any data point. Back to Minnesota,
they allow seventh and eighth graders to complete varsity as well,
so that's another thing that adds, whereas Virginia doesn't. So
you're looking for one hundred and pound one hundred and
six pound ninth grader whereas some states New York has it.
(29:52):
I think New York has a ninety eight pounds. Some
states have slightly lighter weights. I think Montana is another one.
Off the top of my head. You're looking for seventh
or eighth grader, depending on the county. Some counties allow it.
Some here in Minnesota, some counties don't allow pre high
schoolers to to compete varsity.
Speaker 2 (30:07):
So you can it a lot.
Speaker 3 (30:08):
Easier maybe to find one hundred and six pound seventh
grader than it is one hundred and six pound ninth
grader someplaces. So that's another thing. It opens up your pool,
and that could also skew the data just a little.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Bit too on that forefeit.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
Yeah, that I don't know how much it would impact,
but it's another it's it's one of those asterisks to
consider depending on the state.
Speaker 4 (30:25):
Sure, but you know that's a real good point. That's
you know, we're looking for solutions and going to a
duel meet and seeing four or five forefeits is just
it's not right. And maybe that's something that other states
should look at. I know New York has it too right.
You don't have to be in high school to russell varsity.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
Now there's another thing with the duel meet.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
See I I kind of on the fence with this
because to me, an odd number means when you come
to a tie, it's easy you eliminate the need for
criteria at all. Match is one end of discussion. So
like in Minnesota here again to bring where I live currently,
the end of the fray when they have a dual
meets series, their state tournament is to their state champions
(31:11):
by class are determined by dual meets. That's wrestled on Thursday,
part of the state Championships at the Big Arena which
is now a Grand Casino Arene.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
It used to be called the Excel Energy Center.
Speaker 3 (31:20):
But when you if you forfeit to get a favorable advantage,
for example, you start bumping guys around. If you leave
that weight vacant, that weight has to stay vacant the
rest of the day or the rest of that competition.
So if you forfeit one forty five to bump your
good guy up to or whatever the weight clouds one
forty four to bump them up to one fifty to
(31:41):
avoid the goodbin and and give up a six, well
guess what you're leaving one forty four open the rest
of the tournament. So you see a lot, you see bumping,
but you see guys put into those places. You're not
given free sixes at the state series, in the sectional series,
So that's another thing I think Minnesota's done to curtail
that practice in the post season.
Speaker 5 (32:01):
Wow, that's interesting.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
I like that personally, love it.
Speaker 5 (32:05):
Okay, Now, Kevin, answer your question about the percentage of
forfeits for high school girls. It's almost forty six percent. Okay.
That number is of course going to be larger than boys.
Of course, girls, as we discussed last year, there is
a growth industry and boys is a mature industry in
a business term. Okay, so there's going to be more
(32:27):
forfeits for girls than there are for boys. Okay. With this,
if people are saying, well, there's just two dar many
forfeits for girls, okay, I want you guys to think
of something number of high school girls matches actually wrestled.
According to Flew, I don't know where they got all
(32:50):
their data from, from every state, from every tournament. What
I have you Okay, this is sixty one thousand matches
actually wrestled. That is ninety five times the amount of
matches we saw at the NCAA Men's Championship matches, where
(33:15):
my fellow co host Jason Bryant and my other fellow
co host, Brian Hazard's son are the main announcers. Okay,
it's ninety five of those guys. So this girl's high
school wrestling is really starting to be a big thing. Okay.
It's impossible really to look at this anyway other than that.
(33:37):
And I believe I said flow Originally that was supposed
to be OPC in this category. But that is just
how big girls high school is getting now. And I'll
use an analogy for you on that. This is how
mainstream we've become. Girls high school wrestling is mainstream. And
(34:00):
I use this fact often with people when they say
nobody goes to minor league baseball. More people go to
minor league baseball games each year than go to see
NFL football games live. Okay. Now that is because there's
so many more minor league baseball games, et cetera. Okay,
(34:21):
and there's only sixteen NFL games a week. Okay, But
this is an example of how big girls Rusty's got. Okay,
next slide, You're right, Jason, Sorry FORGID.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
I was gonna say, you trip me up there. If
you're watching the video, you see me jumping the slides.
I'm anticipating Glenn because his timing. You know, usually you
can you can anticipate it, and then sometimes I'm behind.
So if you're not getting the visual cues on this year,
like what what's going on here? Yeah, that's what happens
behind the scene. That's a little how the sausage is
made here.
Speaker 4 (34:54):
All right, So, huge growth in women's wrestling, and we've
talked about a lot correlations. Is there any correlation between
high school participation numbers and the number of four year
college teams in those states?
Speaker 5 (35:11):
Okay, we reviewed this last year and I'm going to
give it to you guys again in twenty twenty four
on the state by state. Okay, boys high school participation,
there is no correlation whatsoever between the amount of men's
four year colleges with women. There's a moderate correlation of
(35:33):
positive zero point four eighty three. Okay, Now when you
move to twenty twenty five, as there is becoming more
high school girls, the correlation goes down to zero point four.
It's still a moderate correlation, but it gives Gorm's reason
to think that soon enough, there's going to be so
many women high school vessels that this correlation will go away. Okay,
(35:58):
So to me, it seems happenstance that a college has
a women's team or a men's team, not because there's
a lot of boys or girls wrestling in that high
school state. It's a business decision, and in most schools
to get more beds in the dorms and to have
(36:19):
more people pay tuition, which is why you see the
growth in Division two in Division three and not in
Division one. Now there's a little thing here in slide
fifty five. It's called market share M one. Market share
means the market share of the single largest state, in
this case, which in girls wrestling. Okay, the single's largest
(36:44):
state is Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has thirteen percent of all the
women's college teams. The percentage of high school girls participants
in the N one. The largest state, which is California,
has twelve. You can see these numbers almost mirror each other.
(37:04):
From M one meaning top one, M two meaning top two,
et cetera. Okay, they almost mirror each other, but they're
different states. There's not a really a lot of common allies.
So this is where I got part of my thing
that it's really difficult to go to an athletic director
or president say hey, your state's got a heck of
(37:26):
a lot of boys and girls. You need more college teams.
That's not what they're there for. They're there to fill
their own on pocketbooks. So, okay, Slide fifty six and
fifty seven you see a graph of all the in
order the states are the most women's college teams. Then
slide fifty eight are states that have no women's teams.
(37:50):
We need teams in all those states. Slide fifty nine, guys,
is a graph that shows the growth rate of women's
college teams. It's up to one hundred from NCAA or NAII.
This is what schools that currently have teams. And if
you don't currently have a team, your numbers not in there.
(38:13):
So this doesn't count anyone who's out and dropped. So
there's now one hundred and seventy two of them, guys.
That's staggering, staggering.
Speaker 4 (38:22):
That graph kind of mirrors the growth of high school
wrestling participation. Now, another thing that we should probably look at,
and this is an you know, states that allow more
than one entry per team per weight at states for girls?
Are there any states that allow more than one girl?
(38:44):
And if so, have any states? And what are the states?
And does allow more than one entry per weight class
affect the growth rate compared to states that don't allow this.
Speaker 5 (38:56):
Okay, thanks for that question, Kevin. There are nine states
and there basally or Rocky Mountain, the northwest states, Idaho,
Misigan been one that's dot in the west, Montana, Nevada,
North Dakota, Oregon. You told Washington, Wyoming. Now with the
growth rate of this, okay, it's one of these things
(39:16):
that everything's growing in women's wrestling. So with one entry
there's five hundred and seventy two percent growth, With multiple
entries there's four hundred and sixty eight percent growth. I
can't tell you that multiple entries is hurting anything and
one entries is helping anything. It's just guys that there's
(39:37):
growth in all kinds of women's wrestling. You know, you
can make everyone wear a purple singlet and there would
be growth in that state, just like there are in
every other state. I mean, so we really can't say anything.
Does Gormley like the idea of allowing more than one? Yeah?
Why not? Okay, see it hurting anything? All right?
Speaker 4 (40:02):
So we talked about participation. Let's talk about the three
point takedown and decision, and half the three point takedown
at the high school level impacted the wind types major
decision text and pins. We found out looking at the
NCAA Division one, Division two it did have a major impact.
Speaker 5 (40:23):
Yeah, we did an extensive study on this the past
two years. On college. One time it was just one
year where we had three point roll. The next year
it was two years. This year is the first year
for high school boys. This is where we got the
flow data from Okay. What we did here is from
all the matches that Flow gave me access to gave
(40:46):
me the data from Okay. They're four foot percentages low.
So I immediately called brand who did a great job
give you us to this. He mailed her and she said, yes,
these are from tournaments. That's why the forfeit rate is
so low because in tournaments you don't see a forfeit
like you do and a tool meet. However, the total
(41:06):
number of forefits was below what we saw in the boys.
So we used the consistent apples and apples with this
flow data, and what we found out with the boys
is regular decisions are down twenty five percent, Major decisions
are up to twenty one percent, Tech falls up two
(41:27):
hundred and fifty four percent. Pins are almost identical, and
this mirror is exactly what we found out different numbers
and stuff like that, but mirrors the trend that we
found out in the last two years, over the last
four years in the men's Division one category. Now, one
of the reasons these numbers could be a little bit
(41:49):
different is you have all types of levels in this
seven hundred and thirty four thousand matches. Okay, in the
NCAA Division one Men's champion Ship, the worst guy that
makes that tournament's a pretty dawn good wrestler, okay. So ah,
there's not much of a variation of the talent level
(42:10):
between the thirty third seed and the first seed and
compared to what you're seeing in this chart. So that
explains what goes on there. But it is the same
thing happening, guys. When you raise the value the takedown,
the margin of victory will increase, and we see it happening.
(42:33):
Did I Okay, I I've accidentally included the road boys
that I have to change that to where it's girls.
But we see girls changing the same way too. I
made a typo there, guys, where it'says twenty twenty four
to twenty five boys. That's supposed to say girls. Okay
for this one, but girls. We saw the same change
(42:57):
in less regular decisions, more majors, more falls, and almost
consistent with pins.
Speaker 4 (43:04):
Okay, seventy Kevin, Okay, twenty twenty four research conclusions. How
about we do a recap with some of the findings
we researched our twenty twenty four to two part series
for the high school numbers, there were several areas that
(43:25):
we could draw any statistical conclusions from.
Speaker 5 (43:31):
Thank you, Kevin. I've gotten some questions again for the
same questions we answered last year, and I didn't want
to make this show to be two hours, to lose
any viewers and stuff like that, so I'll give you
a quick recap. We already said population is the largest
positive correlator for state by state, there was a large
(43:51):
positive correlation between boys and girls participation. In other words,
girls and boys want to do the same sport, which
is the world's old is the greatest sport. High school
boys wrestling is growing three and a half times faster
than all boys high school sports. There's no correlation between
boys high score participation and the number for your college teams. Okay,
(44:17):
no correlation between boys participation and the number of divisions.
Whether you have triple A, DOUBA single as no correlation.
Matt Stats believes the number of weights should be a
state by state decision. There was no correlation there on
the amount of participation, so leave it up to the
state states that keep scoring individual states have a higher
(44:39):
participation growth rate, but not enough states that do not
keep score to have any meaningful conclusions. So you can
say stuff on this, but it's really not statistical evidence
to prove anything. Matt Stats could not definitively say if
we have a state to a meet tournament if it
(45:00):
affects participation numbers, because there's so many moving parts on this.
So guys, that is Matt Status's twenty twenty five show here,
and I like Kevin Hazard, who gives us his keV notes,
this is the white paper for doctor Jackie Piquette and
Mike Morier that they can sum it up quickly and
(45:23):
give you an elevator speech your table, Kevin.
Speaker 4 (45:27):
Okay. So for the white pages, number one, over three
hundred thousand boys high school wrestlers twenty twenty twenty four
to twenty five. That's the most ever the seventies. The
numbers kind of emmett middle school kids as well, So
we had to throw those out. Two boys participate participation
(45:50):
grew sixteen percent over the last DESK decade. Girls increased
five hundred and fifty four percent, and by the way,
that sixteen percent was the most of any high school sport. Three.
When girls have a separate coach from the boys team,
the participation numbers increase almost sixty percent. Four. States that
(46:12):
only allow girls to wrestle girls the entire season or
at the state level, they have an higher arithmetic mean
participation number. Then states allow girls to wrestle boys. Five. Interestingly,
states that allow girls to wrestle boy does have a
higher growth rate than states that don't allow this. We'll
(46:33):
have to see how that plays out over the next
couple years.
Speaker 2 (46:36):
Six.
Speaker 4 (46:38):
This is almost thirty percent four foot rate in boys
high school twenty four to twenty five. This is consistent
with the rate over the last five years. First two
weight classes below one point fifteen had a forty seven
percent fourfoot rate. Girls' high school has a forty six
percent forfeit rate in twenty four to twenty five. That's
(46:58):
probably going to go down as the rate as the
number of girls increase in high school wrestling. Number eight
No correlation between state by state mail high school participation
numbers and the number of college male teams. Yet there
is a moderate positive correlation between state by state girl
(47:19):
high school participation and never college teams. But like gorm
said earlier, that's gone down since probably keep going down. Nine.
We could not definitively say that allowing more than one
entry per teen per weight had any effect on participation numbers. Ten,
(47:41):
just like we saw in the men's NCAA Division One championships,
boys and girls high school after the new takedown rules,
so fewer regular decisions, more majors in texts, and the
same rate of pins, so they almost mirrored the college
high scho almost mirrored identically to the college numbers.
Speaker 5 (48:05):
Thank you for that recap, Kevin Jason, you have anything
for the show some.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Up, No, I'm just thinking that when we look at
some of the FORFEIT data, one thing that jumped out
of me is going back to the states that allow
girls to commute against boys. I think that one probably
Again this is just looking at it and going hmmm,
eye test. So the thing is where you start girls
wrestling in a new state where there's not girls against girls,
(48:34):
so naturally you're starting from a zero. You had alluded
to it there, say there was only say seventeen hundred
to draw from, and when you double that, the numbers
are going to look significantly because eventually those states are
going to move to just girls against girls. It's not
like they're just going to stay there. So when there's
a critical mass of female athletes that then can earn
their own tournament, they move from one one distinction to another.
(48:55):
So that's almost like the minor leagues in some respect,
because that's that's where the growth point is. That that's
your growth industry. Is this those states that Okay, they
don't have a girls versus girls state tournament yet, well
actually I think almost all of them do now, but
they're still allow it, or they have one team, that
kind of stuff. I think that's where those new programs
are coming from. You plan a set, Okay, one girl
(49:16):
on the team. Now there's oh you can wrestle against girls. Well,
then there's five, and then in three years you've got
a whole team. And then now the whole state says,
all right, you're wrestling your girls state tournaments against girls.
Speaker 2 (49:25):
You gotta make the choice.
Speaker 3 (49:26):
So I think it's a progression there, so that that's
the number I'm looking at, going, I don't know about
that one. You know, that's that's again kind of the
outlier thing.
Speaker 5 (49:35):
Well, thank you for that, Jason, and I hope you
guys enjoyed the viewers enjoy this show. Now, our next
episode will be on the number of male wrestlers at
the NC Double. In the NC Double, A's okay, we're
gonna analyze this show that the numbers of males for
the next show on Wednesday, November nineteenth, twenty twenty five,
(49:56):
So tune in next month. Say Matt time, say my
channel on behalf of Jason Bryant Kevin Hazard. I'm Glenn
Gormley signing off.
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