The Muster- Phil Duncan : Weather Watch

Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at the southern forecast for the next seven days.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Jenny, it's time to catch up with Phil Duncan from Weather.

(00:28):
That song there You Want to Know by Alana Smira
set off the Jagged Little pil CD that came out
from around nineteen ninety four ninety five available on set
as well. Phil Duncan, Good afternoon.

Speaker 2 (00:39):
Good to be back with you.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
Yeah, you too. How's the week been?

Speaker 2 (00:42):
Been pretty good? Been pretty good here with since we
had a bit of weather moving around the country again,
but it's been yeah, sort of unsettled with rain up
where I've been, but it's been good for the garden.
It's drying out of it very quickly after the warmer
window weather we had last month.

Speaker 1 (01:00):
Yeah, so ironic how it can just change overnight. Literally,
I mean down here in the Deep South, we've had
a couple of days of nice weather. We'd like about
ten days of nice weather, just a little drizzle of
rain at night to keep things ticking over. Please.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
Yeah, I mean we've actually got a bit of a
little bit of wet weather on the way for you.
But probably the main thing actually at the moment is
really the cold chase it's about to come through tonight.
The polar boundary were turning. It's barely been around this month,
after being almost solidly over you for the past your
previous few months. Now you've had this lift in temperatures,
and today's an example of that. But yeah, tonight the

(01:34):
temperature really does drop, and so we're going for high
today parts of southmand into the low or early twenties today.
Tonight the overnight low is four and tomorrow the high
in some areas just around eleven or twelve degrees, And
tomorrow night's overnight low is down to one, which means
the old frost forecast is back, could be a frost,

(01:55):
likely frost actually over the next Saturday and on Sunday morning.
But the good news there's some warms up, so yeah,
frost in the morning, then nearly twenty degrees by the afternoon,
and then next week you're back into the twenties again,
twenty one, twenty two, twenty threes right through till the
end of next week, with of course the usual Friday
cold front and next weekend temperatures trapping for the weekend.

(02:16):
But doesn't it like put the frost sheets out on
Saturday night because yeah, at the front, I mean overnight
lower one, so he probably will be a frost if
that stays the way it is in that forecast. There
are a few showers on Saturday, most of that will
be in the morning and then the afternoon going towards
the evening. That's when the skies clear out, and that
frost risk is probably more so on Sunday morning than

(02:36):
it is on Saturday night. But then, like I said,
the day warms up again, so it's not too bad.
The wind isn't too bad either, except for a little
bit windy today and tomorrow in some areas with that
westerly blowing through, and you just might notice a little
bit of a breeze in the afternoon's next week. But
really wind doesn't really much of an issue coming up,
which is good news.

Speaker 1 (02:56):
What about why Cooey cooey tomorrow, little town chef about
twenty five minus out of gore Cracket's happening there, Clayton
Peters for every sing already smoke today, he's going to
get a run. So I reckon about twenty five runs
coming Puff's way. What are we going to see? Were
the wise boy killy killy tomorrow?

Speaker 2 (03:11):
Yeah, pretty similar Wendy tomorrow. That westernly could get a
little bit gusty late morning or early afternoons at around lunchtime,
and again showers in the morning. For the most part.
There might be a couple of showers that could linger
after midday, but really it looks like it dries out,
so it could be a few showers in the morning
and I high of about twelve.

Speaker 1 (03:29):
Degrees, just going to have to wear thermals, right, Yeah,
that's right. It doesn't seem right for cracket wearing thermals somehow.

Speaker 2 (03:36):
It doesn't really know, You've got quite right on that one.

Speaker 1 (03:39):
So the rest of the outlook for November into December, Landnina,
is it on the card still?

Speaker 2 (03:44):
Yeah, we're actually seeing a real tug of war over
the atmosphere, and New Zealand's in the middle of it.
So if you imagine people playing tug of war, right,
and you got the rope in the middle's got a
knot in it, so you know where the halfway mark is,
that's kind of New Zealand. And on either side we've
got Loud and then you're pulling us one way and
we've got the Southern Ocean spring whether if you like,

(04:05):
pulling us the other way. So for the next week
we're sort of in between those two worlds, but I
think both of them are kind of going to affect
our weather. I don't think one will just sort of
overtake and dominate. So that basically means as we go
into December, we may well see more normally winds, more humidity,
although usually in south and that's not too bad as

(04:26):
it is at the top of the country, but it's
still possible. Subtropical airflows are in the mix, and the
southern Ocean is still stormy, which means you can have
these kind of longer stretches of dry or longer stretches
of warm, followed by a shot of winter for a
day or two. And that's precisely what we're getting this week.
You know, you have some warm days, get a shot

(04:46):
of cold air tonight, tomorrow, Saturday night, Sunday morning, and
then it's gone in and you're back to the warm
and weather. So I do think we've got variety coming up.
But the two areas of interest are certainly lan Nina,
which is showing signs of building. Now we're seeing a
lot more low pressure, Northern New Zealand, Fiji, Vana Wahtu.
Those areas low pressure thunderstorms and showers, and that airflow

(05:08):
being sort of pushed into New Zealand. But we're still
seeing these polar outbreaks hitting Australia every week. I mean
Tasmania and Victoria are getting at least two a week,
where Southland has not had that in the last couple
of weeks. So that's that's you know, Southland's further south
than Victoria and Tasman Tasmania, but they're getting the cold
air flows. So we've been on a warmer side of

(05:28):
things this month. But these the sudden, sudden stratospheric warming
that went over went on over Antarctica over winter. That's
just made the jet stream southern New Zealand messia, which
means it's more unpredictable. And to keep that simple, what
that means is if you're in Southland, there is a
higher chance than usual of a cold snap going into

(05:49):
some of this year. So while you might have these
long stretches of warm and dry, don't be surprised if
all of a sudden, even you know, in the middle
of January. I don't think it's I wouldn't want to
be ruling out the chance of these polar snaps coming
through and calling a snap because it doesn't last very long,
but they are possible this year because the Southern Ocean,
where the pattern is very stormy. Larnina is measured at

(06:12):
the equator, a long way away from New Zealand, so
the storms that are over the southern Ocean are technically
much closer to Southland than Lonina conditions are. So that's
why even if Londina forms, it doesn't necessarily change your
weather pattern. But what we are seeing over the next
week or two more normalies, more easteries at the top
of the country, perhaps a bit of a sign of
the Londina conditions that are building so.

Speaker 1 (06:34):
Well, I know we still have a little bit of
a deck of picker makes as we go into December.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
That's the one, one hundred percent.

Speaker 1 (06:41):
Yeah, get on your fell Duncan and weather Watch. We
always appreciate your time on the muster and you enjoy
the weekend, which should chat next week.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
Thanks buddy, you too, So Duncan of weather Watch always
appreciate his time on the Muster.

Speaker 1 (06:57):
The Country Crossover is next with Michelle White bos