Crypto Bear Market?📉Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's get into a market breakdown today. Of course, none
other than Jim Kramer says, the top is in. We'll
break it down for you guys. Don't want to miss it,
of course, Let's just jump in and get Evan on
the screen. You guys, of course know him from Evan
Aldo coming in from his YouTube channel. If you're not
following him over there, make sure and visit Evan Aldo
over on YouTube. Check out some of his latest trades,

(00:23):
which we're going to talk about at alls. How are you,
Evan doing well?

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Living life? Exit market is not the most exciting, but
you know it is what it is. Make it a
dead cap bounce, dead cap bounce here at least.

Speaker 1 (00:36):
So well, some of the points that are playing into
this right now as we just cross the streams, don't
cross the streams. Well, we cross the streams with the
staypuff marshmallow man right there, and that is twenty five
bases points now starting to fall below the no change
for the FED meeting in December. What are your thoughts

(00:56):
on this, Evan? Do you think Powell is going to
pull a a late change and say yeah, I'm gonna
give you to the quarter or do you think he's
going to follow through with a with a flat on
the on the FED.

Speaker 2 (01:07):
Meeting, I think if your power right now, you're at
the end of your legacy, the end of you're going
to be out and not that long you want to
go out, not as the guy that let inflation get
out of control, especially if the new FED share is
somebody who's going to cut rates a lot. Also, it
definitely is more bearerge, especially if they do pause, which
I think they will now. And because the last time

(01:30):
they paused was January and you got and you saw
what happened in January. That was kind of the end
of the fun for a while. So if they pause
this month, not too good. But on the bright side,
given that QT has ended, I do think this, especially ethereum,
in some all coins that will be around in a
few years from now should outperform Bitcoin over the next
four to six months, especially ethereum right now.

Speaker 1 (01:52):
All right, so ETH, well we're going to get into ETH.
We'll chart it here in a minute. I want to
play Jim Kramer's clip for you because this is where
he gets into talking about the crypto market AI all
of it. Let's go to that side.

Speaker 2 (02:07):
You can tweet me a Chim Kramer.

Speaker 3 (02:09):
Somebody has to pay. The bad guy might as well.

Speaker 4 (02:12):
Be me, and what I admit is a very big
change for me. I pulled the plug in the year
of magical investing. I pronounced it over most, especially the
data center and AI stocks. See the money's headed to
the sidelines, are headed to high growth away from tech
that cemetery, and I can fill it with this time
we bit deers and all sorts of other crypto or

(02:33):
AI animals. Please don't ask me to live through it again.

Speaker 1 (02:37):
It's over done. Just done it, all right. I need
one of those Kramer bells. Don't you think I'm going
to get one of those. I got to get a
Kramer bell. Hey, listen, We've got that. And then, of
course you also have this note, which is if December
is not bullish, this one is done. So maybe Kramer

(02:59):
is cooking early or do you think December holds out?
Let me play this clip for you and then give
me your opinion. Take a look.

Speaker 3 (03:06):
Yeah, I mean, obviously the FED is part of the equation,
but it doesn't seem like the reason the reason why
there is air coming out of the AI trade. And
also there's nothing new necessarily in the concerns trade. When
it comes to return on investment. We knew that they're
issuing loads of debt in order to pay for this capex.
It's not like anything has really changed, it's just investors
are scrutinizing that now.

Speaker 5 (03:26):
Yeah, and I think it's just rubber hit the road
type time. When you look at it, November and December
are really your best month seasonally to be invested in
the marketplace, and if that flips on its head, it's
going to hurt a lot of people. Market always sets
up to hurt the most amount of people at any
given time. If we have it down December, it's.

Speaker 2 (03:45):
Going to be painful.

Speaker 6 (03:47):
Crypto is hitting a wall.

Speaker 5 (03:48):
So does crypto get back on the horse? Does that
run back higher? If you look at the seven names
that are responsible for all the gains, they need lower rates, right,
you need so if December doesn't have and it's a
problem for the market.

Speaker 1 (04:02):
So there you go. Likelihood of no cut, even though
there's a handful of people still believe we're going to
get a quarter, but it is at least by Polymarcus standards,
looking and leaning toward a no cut so much so
that we're starting to see a lot of bitcoin content
out there. Tether CEO pallo Ardini, I've never seen him
make any statements about bitcoin, but of course he made

(04:25):
one today saying that it's bitcoin Black Friday, which is,
as you guys know, is discount day. So that is
the case. Are you buying bitcoin right now? Evan, look
at the chart? Tell me is this the time to
buy it?

Speaker 2 (04:40):
So short term, I think there's a decent shot with
all this fear of a did cut bounce, and let's
look at the chart to kind of get into that
big area at ninety six. Here you're getting kind of
a deep anchor wave in your four hour I mean
usually that does lead to at least a little bit,
a little bit of kind of relief of something like this.
I could see it even, you know, going back up

(05:00):
to one o eight. You know that's a really big
area right there. If you can break above one a weight,
that's where it gets more bullish. But unfortunately, I do think,
like what the Kramer thing is, it's usually when that's
a good dead cap bounce indication, like short term, you'll
probably come up at least a little bit. But when
you zoom out here, so the big thing here that
we want to look at, and you know the three

(05:21):
if we zoom in on our emas, which are really
good scene, it knows how they come gray when price
goes down a bit. They came great here, good bye time?
Can gray here really good bye time? September twenty four?
Can gray here really good bye? Sub or twenty three?
Now everybody's like, okay, good bye. But then if you
go all the way back to the end of the
last bull run, the end or of twenty two, terrible

(05:43):
time to buy, and you went into your typical kind
of bull market, So I think you are kind of
overdue or do for you know, that type of situation
to come down to. I don't think it's going to
be as bad as last time, but potentially maybe you
get your little jump up reject from there early next
year you end up at your eighty five ives these areas,
and then too a potential bottom, which wouldn't be the

(06:04):
worst bottom in the world at you know, a fifty
percent correction fifty sixty k these areas. Hopefully I didn't
irritate everybody, but I'm just being as objective as I can.
When we look at really high time frames, rare let's
go to our two month and now this is just
one in a million rare bearish signs. Look at this
nice anchor wave right here that you had at the

(06:25):
last kind of this was July twenty one. It took
time to play out, but I do think it will
play out kind of like this. And if you compare
it to look at the red hiken actually candle here.
This was March of twenty eighteen. You came down quite
a bit farther, so it does look like you could
be heading down for you know, four to six months.
Last thing I want to say, right here, look at
this blue line I drew out. This was the last

(06:48):
time they ended QT. You came down. I mean, even
if you don't count the Black Swan pandemic, you came
down for some months into the end of that year.
That was like four to six months of downward action.
So I do think one quarter two likely will be bearish.

Speaker 1 (07:04):
Overall quarter one quarter two likely bearish. If you look
at the tweet I put out this morning, and this
had eight hundred and fifty votes on it, are you
buying bitcoin today? And what target? Ninety five K got
eight percent, ninety two K at nine percent and eighty
five K at nine point four but not buying seventy
three point two percent not buying bitcoin right now as

(07:27):
it falls and is performing at around ninety five seven
as we record. If you look at that and then
you also go to the next major token being ethereum,
you've got Ryan Sean Adams talking about this. Is this
the end of the cycle, then it was a weird one.
If the bull market didn't reach euphoria, then the bear
market won't reach despair just to slow ap the grind down.

(07:51):
I don't know if I think with this kind of
unusual cycle, you could end up with an unusual bear
cycle as well. I mean, all these things could really
start falling. If we start to see an implosion on
the AI market, that is going to have a massive
effect on crypto market, just because of the liquidity hits
that we're going to see coming out of the S

(08:12):
and P five hundred. Let me play this clip for you,
because this is Eric Trump continuing to go on podcast
after podcasts shouting the bitcoin bullhorn like he is in
Game of Thrones. Take a look the latest sell off
in book Bitcoin. What do you think about this sell off?

Speaker 6 (08:30):
I laugh, like I literally laughed because it's almost like
not a serious question. Bitcoin exactly two years ago today
was at thirty six thou five hundred what almost a
two hundred percent return. Hey, I'll take that volatility. Give
me more volatility if I can get more return. And
I think that's how crypto people are wired. If you
can't handle volatility, stay out of cryptocurrency and don't bother.

(08:51):
But you know, go into treasuries where you're gonna have
zero volatility and you're going to click away at you know,
three percent returns. You know, go have a great time
doing that, and I'll see you in ten years.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
Obviously, they the Trumps are looking at ten year cycles minimum,
and I think a lot of investors are as well.
I think a lot of investors who watch us are
setting back, you know and saying, hey, I'm starting to
look for now very simple trades. Maybe it's scalp trades
or you know, going into swing trades, et cetera. But

(09:21):
if you look at where we are on the fifty
two week hi with a lot of S and P leaders.
You have Apple S and P. The gold is down,
four Googles down, five, Amazon eight, These are all negative numbers.
Microsoft down, nine. These are off the fifty two week high,
and then you get into things like Tesla and Nvidia
down twelve and sixteen, Palenteer down seventeen, Bitcoin down twenty two,

(09:43):
Ethereum down thirty five, and so on, Coinbase thirty six,
micro Strategy down sixty two percent off it's fifty two
week high, and then you get into a lot of
the you know, the meme coins. So could this be
the beginning of what a lot of people have been
calling for evan and and that is an absolute bust
on the market going forward into twenty twenty six. What's

(10:05):
your opinion?

Speaker 2 (10:08):
Yeah, I do think that, like you're getting that fear
right now, So I do think there's probably going to
be a dead cat bounce. I mean, I wouldn't even
be completely surprised if the S and P five hundred
does have one last leg up and does make a
new all time high kind of into the end of
this year, and may maybe even bitcoin back up to
like one ten, one twelve or something. It's suspeculative, hard
to say, but yeah, just one more for because I'm

(10:31):
sure a lot of people are like going too heavy,
like it's a big battle between like short sellars and
people longing all these big AI stocks like palent here
and all that. So I don't think they're going to
go down, you know that easily. I do think it
will mirror kind of twenty twenty two and twenty eighteen
to a certain extent. I don't think it'll be as
bad as twenty twenty two, especially with Trump in office.

(10:52):
But yeah, I do think you're probably in all likelihood
going to go down quarter one, quarter two of next year.
The thing that Doll's so the other thing, especially with
a new FED chair coming in, that may kind of
mark the bottoms as well as an environment without QT,
which means, based on that tweet we looked at earlier apathy,

(11:13):
you could have things go down and have ETH outperform
Bitcoin during the next four to six months as it
did in the second half of twenty nineteen all the
way for years after. So it could be kind of
like that instead of having an all season. What you
see is you see some good alts like ethereum outperform
Bitcoin on the way down and then do exceptionally well

(11:33):
in twenty twenty seven, in twenty twenty eight.

Speaker 1 (11:36):
So well, let's take a look at the ETH chart
real quick, because when you look at ethereum where it
is positioned right now, because I think a lot of
people probably were buying, you know, back in the eighteen
hundred dollars range. I know a lot of people that
you know follow our channel talk about that that that's
kind of their zone. Is this a position where you

(11:57):
would look at liquidating some of eth.

Speaker 2 (12:00):
So I've been scaling out kind of since I was
supposed to start scaling out October first, I sold thirty
percent of my I was getting greedy. But then I
sold thirty percent of my position October thirtieth, and I've
been d saying out since then. I'm mo not mostly out,
but like fifty a little bit over fifty percent out
right now. And I do think that, you know, you

(12:23):
could try It's hard to say, I mean, you could
try to get this bounce up to thirty five thirty seven.
I don't think you're going to go above it. But
if you can break up there, that would get more momentus.
This would be a really good pocket to kind of
get out and then hope for you know, lower areas
twenty seven hundred. Now, the thing that my educated guess
here is that in the bear market, you'll see eight

(12:45):
potentially go down to you know, maybe fifty eight percent
down two thousand, and it did bottom out way earlier
than Bitcoin last time. And then so if it goes
down that much, like sixty percent, and then bitcoin pickcoin
may go down a little bit farther than itally because
Bitcoin goes down a full sixty percent, maybe that forty
nine k area that I've been looking at. Sorry to

(13:06):
irritate people, it's just my objective, my objective view. So Eve,
may I perform bitcoin a little bit there? If we
look at eth versus bitcoin. If you look at this area,
this is the last time they ended QT. Look at
how eth outperformed Bitcoin all the way up to these areas,
you would have thought we were in a bull market here.
No things actually came down, so eth out performed Bitcoin

(13:26):
as things came down, So I could potentially see something
of that nature happen. I don't think, you know, I
think there's a good shot that this was your low
for a you know, this was your low here. I
don't think you're going to go below that fifteen hundred again.
If you do go back to this level, I would
be kind of worried. We want more like upward momentum,
like holding two thousand, holding eighteen hundred these areas, and

(13:49):
then potentially in our next you know, twenty twenty seven
to twenty twenty eight, really you know, getting up to
seven thousand, getting up to eleven thousand, those huge areas.

Speaker 1 (13:58):
So yeah, well there is the situation right now where
you see a lot of ogs that are starting to
sell their bitcoin and you kind of wonder what they're
going to go into. Let me play a clip for
you real quick, because then I want to talk about
a strategy post ethan what that might look like. Let's
cut to clip.

Speaker 7 (14:16):
Three and then green is the first time coins are
moving in five to seven years, So this is meant
to be like old coins moving fifty two billion and
twenty twenty five. There is a huge rotation of longer
term holders. Do you think this is a narrative that
that does hold weight in terms of affecting bitcoins price significantly?

Speaker 8 (14:37):
Yes, these were kind of periods of major new highs.

Speaker 1 (14:39):
If you try to.

Speaker 8 (14:40):
Sell into a weak market, you get a lot of
price slippage.

Speaker 2 (14:43):
We've entered the phase.

Speaker 8 (14:44):
We're going to continue in the phase where it's not
new mind supply that really kind of impacts price. It's
the question is at what price can you unlock you know,
tightly held coins, so previously tightly held coins to get
them circulating.

Speaker 1 (15:03):
All right, Well, there you have it, so older wallets
OG whales dumping into the market. Some people kind of
think that this is why we're starting to see a
little bit of the privacy tokens moving. By the way,
speaking of privacy tokens, I Trust Capital just listed a
whole bunch of those, one of our partners out there.
If you guys want to look at long term holding,

(15:24):
this is the one of the ways you can do it,
and that is getting into a cryptoiac because many people,
I think now are looking at long term and that
is five, ten years, fifteen years out for your retirement.
This is the place to go. I truscopital dot com.
Use our link. We have a special page for you
guys to get additional with They just listed z k sink, dash,
z cash, all of those on And if you think

(15:46):
about the privacy narrative in general, do you feel like
that might be the scenario playing out right now, Evan
in terms of maybe just some of the OG selling
into privacy tokens.

Speaker 2 (15:57):
Yeah, most likely, that's what I would say, a very
high probability that you know, that probably caused a little
bit of a spike, and then retail got some fomo
you know, let's try to pump that up since you know,
there's not meme coins going crazy right now, so that
would be the thing. So yeah, it makes a lot
of sense.

Speaker 3 (16:13):
All right.

Speaker 1 (16:14):
With all of that, I think you still have to
look at the positivity of where blockchain is. It's a technology,
and we have already started to see the tokenization of
Wall Street. Real world assets are going to continue to fly,
and I think that scenario still is a positive spind
for where the market is.

Speaker 2 (16:33):
Here.

Speaker 1 (16:33):
Of course, is Ali Baba doing a cross border arm
is rolling out their AI subscriptions and exploring tokenized USD
and europayments with JP Morgan, all that starting to hit.
So now you have a global you know, scenario playing
out of where we're seeing more of this Visa of
course announcing all their new rails of what they're trying

(16:53):
to do. And then of course we have banks now
starting to engage them that we saw the Sofi news
this week, which is now there where you can go
out in a bank and buy crypto directly in it,
which I think we're going to see more of. Then,
of course you have this news right here on ETH.
And this is where I want to ask this question
to you. Twenty twenty five hundred to three hundred, twenty

(17:15):
twenty five, five thousand to three thousand, same structure as,
same panic, But last time it triggered a bull run.
Do you think that's the case for Eth? This time?
Is it triggering a bull run? Possibly that is a sleeper.

Speaker 2 (17:27):
I think it's triggering a bull run against bitcoin potentially?
How performing bitcoin?

Speaker 4 (17:33):
Now?

Speaker 1 (17:34):
Okay?

Speaker 2 (17:34):
And I do think you know the thing we mentioned
I just had I thought about those you know, those
wallets that sold, those big OG's that sold. I think
the money they are putting it into a lot of
it is the sm P five hundred too. There was
a big billion dollar bitcoin wallet that was finally moved,
somebody that took it up from I think back from
twenty fourteen or twenty twelve or something finally sold like

(17:55):
a billion dollars worth or moved a billion dollars worth
in July. Why is July signific? That's when bitcoin topped
out against the S and P five hundred, which is
a really important chart to look at. I wanted to
just show you that chart real quick. If we look
at Bitcoin versus sp y right here. And the thing
that's interesting too, look at these previous corrections now and

(18:18):
even if you're buying the spy at this point, you
know it has some Bitcoin exposure because of the institutions.
Eighty three percent down in this bear market, seventy five
in this bear market, I would guess that pattern less
maybe sixty percent down against the S and P five hundred.
So I think one of the techniques here that a
lot of people do move into the S and P
five hundred or some of these things, you know, gold
as well. And look at this money flow. S and

(18:40):
P five hundred versus Bitcoin. CEO came into the red
right here. This was a you know, twenty eighteen came
down quite a bit more. This was November of twenty one,
and this is November of twenty five right now. So
in all likelihood Bitcoin will keep bleeding against the S
and P five hundred for probably another four to six
months around there, maybe a little bit longer.

Speaker 1 (19:00):
All right. So if you're in eth and bitcoin right now,
and you are taking profits because some people are where
are you rotating into? Are you going into some of
the S and P? Are you going into gold? People
aren't going to be putting this into cash, you know,
or even maybe into stables maybe, But even that, I
would say, is less performing. What would you do?

Speaker 2 (19:22):
I would say, whatever, Yeah, any anything other than cash
or stables probably would be the best idea here. The
thing that I S and P five hundred pretty good.
In all likelihood, the S and P five hundred can
outperform than NASDAC, especially if things come down. Gold is
on a good pair. I think gold at worst will
probably go sideways against the S and P five hundred

(19:44):
in twenty twenty six, so not too bad. That's a
good thing too. I did some dig, you know, dig
a lot of analysis, and I tried to find something
to outperform bitcoin gold in the S and P five
hundred and twenty fourteen, twenty eighteen, twenty twenty two, all
the bear market years. The only thing I could find
was Berkshire Hathaway, and that had a big jump against
the S and P five hundred very recently. So maybe

(20:07):
I put a little bit into that. Maybe I'm ninety
five years old, we'll see what happens.

Speaker 1 (20:11):
Yeah, well, I mean he's obviously sitting on a ton
of cash right now, so I'm kind of curious is
he waiting for that position now to really drill into
some of the market. One last thing on ETH, because
there is maybe a intriguing thing happening here. Remember that
we have a new upgrade coming to ETH. You also
have this issue with a lot of ZK based roll

(20:33):
up decks. Is that are creating a lot more execution
and through put on ethereum. Will do you think that
has a possibility because the last time we saw Pectra
insert into the market, Now we've got Fusaka coming in.
So is this something that you feel could impact ETH
to the upside going into the end of the year

(20:53):
because they're target right now is a simber fourth.

Speaker 2 (20:57):
Yeah, let's look at like the most bullish case scenario
fre etheroreum. So I think we'll at least get some
type of dead cap bounce here is at least some
type of rally. But if you can break upward out
of this double bottom here, you would have a technical
target around four thousand, which would be a really nice
jump into kind of the end of the month, and

(21:17):
then potentially if you can keep that momentum, let's say
that news is really good, you keep that momentum, then
you potentially it's not impossible into the end of the
year to come back to these highs or maybe just
maybe even make a new all time high. I don't
think we really got the liquidity or the momentum to
do that. Like if I had a guess based on
previous cycles and previous things, that could be kind of

(21:39):
like sell the news type thing. So let's say we
rally into December fourth, where at forty three hundred, everybody's excited,
and that becomes kind of sell the news. That's what
I'd be kind of worried about here. But it does
look pretty likely that you can see like this would
be from a trader perspective, not financial advice, you know,
just one of the many, you know, kind of trades
that I do, good risk cord ratio trying to get

(21:59):
this back up to thirty five hundred. Keep in mind,
though we are coming into the weekend, it gets harder
to trade in those areas. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised
if you see some wicks down, but a lot of
times when you lose the quarterly low. So that was
the quarterly low so far in November fourth. When you
lose that low as we did right here. Oh we
didn't lose it quite yet. Well, when you come back
to it really big place. I have a feeling we

(22:21):
may lose it in the next few days to liquidate
some people who've got stop losses here. When you lose it,
then you get a nice jump up, So just keep
that in mind from a trade.

Speaker 1 (22:29):
So you're calling for a sub three thousand eighth, possibly
a reversal maybe towards the end of the year. That
would if you think about it, this upgrade is only
three weeks away, and if it does repeat what happened
in Pectro, then there's a possibility where Eth might be
the leg into this. Even though there's still a handful
of people that are shouting to the mountaintops that twenty

(22:52):
twenty six is now going to be a bull run year.
So what would you say.

Speaker 2 (22:56):
I've been around since twenty fourteen, people said that at
the end of twenty seventeen, everyone said that at the
end of twenty one. I mean maybe this time.

Speaker 1 (23:06):
Yeah, Well, Tom Lee says, yes, Eth is in a
supercycle of course, what we're talking about here is the
DAT scenario BM and r SO, and this may be
the question is is how well do the dats do
as we cycle out, especially if eth starts seeing some
real pressure, because we haven't seen real pressure under the

(23:26):
three K zone in a while, so that'll be interesting
to watch. I want to go to a clip real quick,
because this is Michael Saylor saying he's not scared. I'm
not going to sell listening.

Speaker 9 (23:36):
The other half of the economy is digital finance, and
it's going to be built on the proof of steak
networks that are emerging, the ethereum salonas and the killer
application for that. Part of the digital assets economy is
token ized currencies, token ized securities, tokenized real world assets,
and DeFi in general. And I'm sure that stable coins

(23:59):
are going to go from hundreds of billions to trillions
of dollars, but it's not really competing with digital capital.
No rich person wants to buy the currency instead of
an equity or a real estate or a capital asset.

Speaker 6 (24:14):
Michael, given where bitcoin's trading right now, are you buying.

Speaker 9 (24:18):
We are buying. We're buying quite a lot, actually, and
we'll actually report our next buys on Monday morning. I
think people will be pleasantly surprised.

Speaker 1 (24:29):
Well, there you have it, Sailor going all in again
on bitcoin acquisition. So I don't know, this is I
think we've hit enough on bitcoin and eighth because this
is something that we'll play out in the next few weeks,
obviously going into the holidays. One thing that happened this
week though was XRP absolutely went to town on the ETF

(24:51):
and this was one single ETF that went had to
head with BISOL, which had been the all time winner
now relinquished the all time winner for twenty twent well,
all time winner of ETF a single day launch. XRPC
now on top of the hill. When you look at
XRP right now and you consider, because it's back in
the zone of around two thirty, would you go into

(25:14):
XRP or would you look at positioning for long term
holding on XRP. Is this a time to buy?

Speaker 2 (25:22):
Let's take a look. Yeah, I mean it's the million
dollar question. I'm a little bit worried with these emas
turning gray right here. I mean, obviously when they turned
gray all these times it was choppy. That could be
one possibility. But end of your you know bull market
right here, at the end of twenty one, these emas
turned gray and you came down you know, quite a bit.
We've been in this range a long time. You're either

(25:45):
going to eventually break upward from this range and hit
you know, somewhere pretty high up, or you're gonna you know,
break downward and probably go down to potentially a dollar,
which I know some people may not want to hear,
but if we're objective about this, there's definitely that possibility here.
I mean, your money flows coming down, maybe wait for

(26:06):
one of these waves that would be potentially a more
longer term, you know situation here. I want to and
at the moment I wouldn't buy. I want to patiently wait.
And your daily definitely doesn't look too good right here
looks similar to this area. So it does seem like,
you know, maybe after a potential little jump here, or
maybe not even a jump, you just come down to

(26:29):
you know, the two dollars area and then maybe you know,
come back down towards those October lows that could be
a potential bottom. I mean, the thing with XRP that
we really want to look at here is XRP versus Bitcoin.
And you know, other than that crazy binance Wick down
that we saw, you know, it is holding up somewhat

(26:50):
strong here more in the short term. I mean, it
did fall off a lot. I wanted to look at
the twenty one. It did fall off a lot, but
not that bad. That's the here, like, it fell off
but not that bad. So maybe you bleed like a
little bit against pickcoin right here. The other thing that's
interesting to look at would be middle of twenty nineteen,

(27:10):
what did this do the last time they stopped qt?

Speaker 8 (27:14):
It did?

Speaker 2 (27:15):
Oh that that was actually around the bottom of it,
around the bottom of it. He came up a little bit,
then he came back down. Yeah, it's hard to look
at the history there. They had the stuff with the
laws to all that. But I mean, at the moment,
I'm afraid of XRP. But we'll see what happens. Hopefully
the charts will brighten up a little bit.

Speaker 1 (27:33):
Let's take a look at Solana. Solana got some massive
validation news this of course from Jack Dorsey putting this
into the cash app. Fifty seven million active users now
rolling out with you at USDC payments, which will be
a big deal again, soul could be shaping up for
maybe some buy positions as it trails down around one forty.

(27:57):
Does Slana hit one hundred dollars again, ever, or where
do you think this thing goes?

Speaker 2 (28:02):
Let's see, so macro pretty scary, similar to this January high.
You know that potential if you repeat something like that,
which you could, that would be down to your one
hundred dollar mark, that kind of area. I think if
you want to show strong potential in the next few years,
you definitely don't want to lose one hundred dollars, and

(28:24):
I think you probably won't. It's a good shot that
you probably won't. You could kind of hold this area.
At the moment, it does look like bearish on the macro,
but bulldives forming. I think you can jump back up
to when sixty maybe even one eighty eight if you
see like kind of an endi year holiday rally something
like that potential on this good news, and then I

(28:46):
would say probably a rejection from those points and then
kind of your bear market areas, maybe a slow apathetic
grind down down to kind of those one hundred dollars
points next year. I mean, look at your five days.
This is the first time. We've gone into the into
the right here in the five day for a long time,
I mean essentially right here before you kind of started

(29:06):
that bear market. I don't think it'll be anything as
bad as that one. But yeah, I mean, Macro not
too good. But I do think there's some potential here Solana.
I think this probably would look better against bitcoin too,
because yeah, you're getting you may hold this point against
bitcoin or maybe only come down a little bit farther
against bitcoin right here, especially with the end of QT here,

(29:28):
and you could even outperform Bitcoin as things come down
in twenty twenty six, So just keep that in mind.
So I do think you will come down probably to
one hundred dollars for Solana, but I you know, that's
a lot better than things we've seen in the past.

Speaker 1 (29:43):
They'll say that, Hevin, we are now looking at a
long time low here for Cardono, coming in at around
fifty cents on that chart. This is on the daily.
Is this a token that you would look at right
now to buy.

Speaker 2 (30:02):
Probably not. But if we look at Cardano here, big
area you're losing, it doesn't look too strong. I mean,
it's like trying to get a triple bottom. But it's
like breaking downward not the best thing. You'll probably eventually
break down to forty six cents, maybe even break down
to the lows of August of you know, twenty twenty four.
Right there, your weekly These emas are certainly a gray

(30:24):
that doesn't look too too good, you know, similar area
to kind of your last bear market. It may not
be that's the thing. It may not, especially for the
alts that survive, and this could be one of them.
It may not be as bad because if you look
at twenty nineteen, here if we can find yeah, look
at big Cardano versus Bitcoin in twenty nineteen, this is
where they ended QT last time, and it smarked kind

(30:47):
of a bottom. So look at this area and then
look at this area some similarities. So as we come down,
if we can outperform Bitcoin, this could be a coin
that's very, very power full in twenty twenty seven, twenty
twenty eight, that could be huge if you can have
perform Bitcoin. So I think for a lot of these
all coins, if they can show strength that gets Bitcoin

(31:08):
for the next four to six months, that's momentous, that's huge.
They'll probably do very very well in twenty twenty seven
twenty twenty eight.

Speaker 1 (31:16):
Don't you think though, that with all the activity we're
seeing on RWA's and stable coin action and the big
banks getting head you know, JPC or jpycu launching this
week as well, don't you think that that is going
to take all of the air out of the market
on some of these laggards of all coins, and that

(31:39):
only maybe the top ten will end up being the winner. So,
I mean, we haven't had a polytoken launch yet, which
I anticipate it's going to be a top ten. Even
though hipaded a little bit of a misstep this week,
you know, they'll probably return to the top ten. So
that starts to push out some pretty good projects that
have been there for the last you know, ten years,

(32:00):
five eight years, maybe out of the top ten, especially
with RWA activity things like that. Avalanche could maybe make
a play here. What happens to a lot of the
tokens that don't keep.

Speaker 2 (32:12):
Up, They end up like how Dash ended up. Well,
Dash is jumping a little bit now, it's still down
probably ninety something percent against Bitcoin or your iota. I mean,
there's there's a lot of coins that just keep bleeding
against Bitcoin or kind of light cooin at this point,
you know what I mean, down so much in bitcoin,

(32:32):
so they will probably end up like that. I do
think the ones that will stay, and you know, ones
that you potentually make a lot of money on, will
be the ones that can hold up very well against
Bitcoin over the next four to six months, especially Ethereum.
I mean Ethereum. If it can hold up against Bitcoin
for the next four to six months, I'll perform it.

(32:54):
Then you're looking at probably at least a ten eleven
k Ethereum, you know, by the end of twenty eight,
maybe into twenty nine at least.

Speaker 1 (33:01):
Well, and I think, yeah, these are keys that we
are dealing with now. Obviously rolling into Ethereum's position of
an upgrade happening that is more of a functional nature
that's going to be needed for a lot of what's
happening just around tokenization and kind of the evolution of
the financial system. To your point, if you're looking at
coin market cap right now, we're holding at three point

(33:24):
two six trillion right there. As the market starts to
creter in, I guess the real question is is do
we end up under three trillion again in the near future.
You're setting on thirty three in the All Coin index.
Crypto etf inflow continue to flow out, Bitcoin dominance is dropping.

(33:45):
These are not good signs, evan not good signs.

Speaker 2 (33:49):
Bitcoin dominance is I haven't looked at bitcoin dominance, but
it's let's take a look at that, because that's very
interesting in how the yeah and how the this is
really good for bitcoin dominance dropping, especially with the end
of QT. This can be good for allts. Not I
don't think they'll do too well in the next four
to six months, but if they can hold up against

(34:09):
Bitcoin in the next four to six months, this could
be really good. Now, the last time you ended QT,
let's zoom out. Last time you ended QT was this
blue line right here. You came up a little bit
more and then you went on to be being down
a lot. So buying ethereum here you would have done
momentously better, a lot better than buying bitcoin at this

(34:29):
point right there, even though you would have lost some
money in the short term, you would have outperformed Bitcoin
for a while there. And I think a similar thing
could happen right there. That Wick right there, you could
make a run up back to this wik but I
think that Wick is probably the top there and then
now that everyone kind of gave up on alts and
they think they're going to go down and maybe have
sold their alts or whatever. Their alts will probably still

(34:52):
go down a bit more, but some of the good
ones with good fundamentals probably will outperform Bitcoin for the
next few years, especially ethereum back to some of these
lower levels over it'll probably take longer, but you know,
some situation like this, I could definitely see. I mean
this that came up quick. Here took longer. It moves
slower these days, but it could take some years. So

(35:12):
I think, you know, long term perspective, if you've got
a few years to wait, here could be big gains.
You know, ten x's things of that nature. Got to wait, though.

Speaker 1 (35:23):
Is there anything that you would look at to start
to position in outside of what you had mentioned earlier
Berkshire Hathway, Maybe a little bit gold if you're thinking
about exiting some of the market, And how much of
a portfolio would you hold through a bear market if
in fact we are in one.

Speaker 2 (35:43):
I think thirty percent is you know the key hold
about thirty percent of what you have. I mean, I'm
still heavier with what I hold Bitcoin than or excuse me,
Ethereum than bitcoin, just because I think Ethereum's got a
good shut about performing Bitcoin for the next few years. Now,
if Ethereum continues to or bleeds against pickpoin over the
next four to six months, I would be afraid and

(36:05):
probably think that that's not doing as well, and Big
One would probably and the etherorem could potentially be a
relic in that scenario. I don't think that'll happen though,
So yeah, I mean thirty percent is pretty good, and
then S and P five hundred would be, you know,
kind of the lowest risk thing, and then try to
convert from S and P five hundred back over to
crypto in about four to six months or the magic

(36:29):
thing here. We're probably going to see a pause at
the next meeting. When do we actually see another cut.
That may not be until June or July or even
August September of next year when they do cut again.
That's a very strong by signal.

Speaker 1 (36:43):
Yeah, yeah, well, I mean that obviously is going to
be pressured heavily because the REFI is a big problem
right now for the US government and they're rolling into
REFI cycle. In terms of time framing, into the first
quarter and second quarter of next year. These are problems
that of course have been played the Trump administration, so
it's going to be an issue that whether they get

(37:04):
you know, a continued pressure on Pale or not. How
this gets into the macro side of things is going
to be very interesting. And I think beyond that you
have to kind of consider the RWA tokens because with
tokenized assets, we're going to continue to see a lot
of acceleration in Wall Street. Even though we may see
a downturn in the S and P, it's not going

(37:26):
to slow them down because the business is still going
to happen. That of course, is going to be still
leaning into Ethereum, possibly Avalanche, maybe Hadera, a handful of
others tokens that kind of go in that direction, Solana
and so on. Is there any out of that top
twenty that you would continue to hold outside of ethereum chain.

Speaker 2 (37:45):
Links Solana, I think has a decent potential there, I
think you, I mean, it's all about diversification there all
the ones you mentioned and then a few others. I
would say, you know, it's kind of just looking at
those fundamentals. So I mean, I don't have the top
ten market app in front of me. It's hard to
on the top of your head. I still think it's so.
I wouldn't completely you know, anything that can outperform Bitcoin

(38:07):
over the next four to six months. It definitely can
do very well if Avalanche does that. Yes, absolutely, I
want to look at those bigcoin evaluations, and I mean
Solana absolutely. T r Rex I think will have potential
in the next bowl run. I think there's a lot
of potential there for the technology. Chane links for Tronron,

(38:28):
I think Scott Toronto. I wouldn't bet against Justin Sun
in my opinion, all right. I mean that's one of
the many, you know, that's one of the man and
the most important thing here above anything else is can
it outperform Bitcoin for the next four to six months.
If it can, then it probably will do very very
well in the next bowl run. I mean UNISWAP, I
think that's potential. I mean there's a lot of them.

(38:50):
Chain Link, especially chain Link, especially a.

Speaker 1 (38:53):
Dara holding the twenty spot. Outside of that, you've got
a lot of privacy tokens I think are kind of
semi locked in here. Hyper liquids still active, chain Link,
hyper Liquid of course fell out and Cardono has repositioned
I guess, even though quite a a position right now
at the number ten slot, but it seems like it's

(39:15):
back to the old guard of what has been one
to two and three, which is Bitcoin, eth and XRP
over the last several bull runs, and of course XRP
separated from Salona quite a bit. So there's a lot
happening I think right now. Obviously we're going to do
a lot more of these breakdowns because this may start
getting us into more opportunities for swing trades, shorts and lungs,

(39:40):
which are great opportunities if you're trying to do something.
So we'll break that down for you, Evan and I
will bring you, guys maybe a show on that of
where you would enter for short and along. Let's consider that, Evan, Okay, definitely, yep.
Let's do it all right, You guys know what to do.
Follow Evan all over on YouTube. Evan, thanks for coming

(40:01):
in today. I appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (40:03):
Thanks so much. He was an honor.

Speaker 1 (40:04):
Paul, you bet all you guys know what to do.
Make sure and jump in on the Diamond Circle. That's
our own private email group that you guys can be
part of for free and of course follow me on
x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time, right
here on the Paul Baron Show.

Speaker 9 (40:16):
Thank you,

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

Ruthie's Table 4

The Joe Rogan Experience

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Crypto Bear Market?📉Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}On Purpose with Jay Shetty

Ruthie's Table 4

The Joe Rogan Experience

All Episodes

Crypto Bear Market?📉Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

On Purpose with Jay Shetty