Government Re-Opening Rally?🚨Crypto Market Update

If the shutdown ultimately ends this week, two key federal agencies would be able to get back to work fully. During the shutdown, multiple crypto ETFs have been able to list. When the SEC returns, several scenarios could unfold.

~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~
iTrustCapital | Get $100 Funding Reward + No Monthly Fees when you sign up using our custom link! ➜ https://bit.ly/iTrustPaul

00:00 Intro
00:10 Sponsor: iTrust Capital
00:45 Vote at 7pm
01:00 CNBC: What to expect
03:10 Polymarket partnerships
04:00 Bitcoin warning
04:30 Fed 50% bps incoming?
05:30 Bitcoin end of November
05:50 UnClarity Act
06:30 SEC Token Taxonomy
07:20 Coinbase relaunches ICOs
08:00 JPM Coin
08:45 Sui stablecoin launch
10:00 Tariff checks incoming?
10:30 Scott Bessent talking stimmy checks
12:30 Well Fargo : Everything rally coming end of year
14:00 Fear & Greed
14:30 Fusaka = Alt rally?
15:00 Pectra Launch
15:30 Outro

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
~Government Re-Opening Rally?🚨Crypto Market Update~
⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺


Join our community!

Diamond Circle Email (FREE)➜ https://bit.ly/pbnmembership
Private Telegram Group (FREE) ➜ https://t.me/+nISqoMxrok40NTcx

Subscribe on YouTube ✅ https://bit.ly/PBNYoutubeSubscribe
X/Twitter 📱 http://bit.ly/PBNtwitter

Get official PBN merch! ➜ https://merch.paulbarronnetwork.com/
~ The Best Self Custody Wallet ➜ https://tangem.com/en/ Use Code PBN for Additional Discounts!
~ The Best Crypto Exchange ➜ Coinbase, get up to $200 in crypto - coinbase-consumer.sjv.io/BARRON
~ Looking for the best tax havens for Crypto? Free Month with iTrust Capital ➜ Use PROMO CODE - PAUL BARRON https://rebrand.ly/PAULBARRON

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The government set for a reopening. Could this spark a
rally into the crypto market today? We'll break it down
for you. I don't want to miss it. Let's get started.
I do want to thank our sponsor, and that is
I Trust Capital. You guys may not know this, but
they are the best IRA company out there for twenty
twenty five. And this is according to a ton of
people looking at cryptoiras all the time. This is what

(00:22):
we've been telling you for some time. If you guys
are trying to get into cryptoiras and now is the
time for tax planning to do that, this is the
way to do it. Go over to I Trustcapital dot com.
Use our link down below. We have a special page
for you to sign up and get your one hundred
dollars funding reward just to get started. So check it out.
You guys can get started. A lot of good stuff
going over there. Man number one CRYPTOIRA company for twenty

(00:45):
twenty five.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
Kudos to them.

Speaker 1 (00:47):
Let's go over to the first item I want to
hit on, and this is the US House of Representatives
now getting ready to vote on a bill to officially
end a forty three day government shutdown at seven pm today,
if this happens, this will spark possibly some movement. I
want to go to this first clip. This we'll give
you guys a little bit of a breakdown of what

(01:07):
is up and what to expect.

Speaker 3 (01:09):
Take a look, hey Carl, Well, yeah, you know the
House they're expected to be back to start the process
voting at four o'clock today. Final vote is probably not
going to come until a little bit later around seven o'clock,
and these are the final votes needed to reopen the government.
Once the bill is passed and signed, federal workers are
expected to get their paychecks as soon as possible, although

(01:29):
of course it could take a few days to process
those depending on which areas of the government that they
work in. For airports, that could take a little bit longer. Obviously,
you are going to have folks receiving pay, they are
being encouraged to come back to work. And as far
as data, look, there's been some data that that's been
ready to go now for the last forty some days
in terms of its job reports from September. But as

(01:51):
far as other things, a lot of the folks who
were collecting the data in the BLS or its CPI
and job numbers, they weren't there, they were furloughed, they
weren't collect things, and so we're going to kind of
see exactly when this data does come out. Is it
based on retroactive data? I think there are some questions
about how accurate it is based on what the format

(02:11):
and the data that they have, and some of that
could take a little bit longer to get started. But
we are expecting to get some more clarity once the
government reopens.

Speaker 1 (02:19):
All right, So government reopening likelihood holding on polymarket at
ninety seven percent between the twelfth and fifteen, so today
and through the end of the week. That looks like
it's going to happen. Now, the real question is what
does it do to the market. Many people would say, well,
there may be some pent up demand here in terms
of the data, which could come in very negatively for
the market. And then also you could just look at

(02:42):
in general that this doesn't necessarily move the market because
there is so much you know, anticipation of where this
might change in terms of all these past paychecks they're
going to be hitting all these employees. So does that
mean that people might have a little extra cash because
they've been kind of holding back. Do they go into
the market with it. Who knows where this is going

(03:03):
to go. But the key here is we are going
to have an open government other things. Right now you've
got poly Market partnering with Yahoo. This is not as
big of a thing I don't think now. Granted I
love poly Market. I think it's going to be one
of the biggest prediction markets out there. Don't necessarily think
y'aho is the perfect thing. I think they're going to
end up with a lot more partnerships that will be.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
Much more relevant.

Speaker 1 (03:27):
But one of them, of course, is what Shane's talking
about right here, and he's announcing a poly Market multi
year partnership with price Picks, which will get very interesting
because this will get into all sorts of betting that
will flow into this. Remember you've got a potential here
where poly Market could be setting up for just imagine
this they go IPO. I'm just thinking down the road,

(03:48):
do an acquisition of draft Kings. That's the kind of
thing that could occur around where Polymarket is going. Lots
of growth opportunity for them. Bitcoin rally is stalling right
now as anamal and start warning of another drop before
a recovery. Let me know what you guys think. Do
you think we get another drop? We had a nice
little run here this week, but have retraced literally as

(04:10):
time of recording, back down to one oh one. So
what do you guys think? Drop some comments down below.
Let me know what you guys think in terms of
where bitcoin is going to be at the end of November.
If you're not a subscriber, do that right now as well.
Let me go over here to this point because this
is one of the things that I think is another
bullish catalyst that could start the market to move a

(04:31):
little bit here. And this is seven out of twelve
Federal Reserve governors who basically are supporting a fifty basis
rate point cut for December.

Speaker 2 (04:42):
This would be huge because prior to this it was.

Speaker 1 (04:46):
Just Mirron that was kind of shouting the fifty basis points.
Many people I've talked to have still said that it's
likelihood to get the quarter is probably the case. And
if you look at what the polymarket is on this
right now, all zoom on that the quarter is holding
it around seventy one percent the fifty. Look at that

(05:06):
two point two That is extremely low for seven different people,
possibly on the verge of dissenting out of the twelve
So right now I would put much more weight in
a fifty basis point cut on December the tenth, So
be on the lookout of where that might look like
going forward. Bitcoin projected value at November's end right here

(05:27):
is the first pole that says by November, at the
end of November, we'll have a one hundred and twenty
k bitcoin price, and that is holding in a thirty
eight percent of that pole right there. But I still
love to see what you guys think. Are you in
line with this poll right here on one hundred and
twenty k by the end of November. Let me know
other things that are happening right now in DC. Of course,

(05:49):
the industry wants more clarity on the Senate ag Market
Structure draft. This is the draft that's coming through. They
are not necessarily in favor of it. There are a
few points to highlight here. Much of the block chain
related language remains in brackets, meaning it's just not there,
signaling the lawmakers right now have yet to come to
a consensus, and the entire section on DeFi and anti

(06:09):
money laundering were left empty.

Speaker 2 (06:11):
This is not a good sign.

Speaker 1 (06:13):
This is probably going to push the Clarity Act back
even further. Now, will it pass this year? Maybe in December.
I don't think it's coming by Thanksgiving at all right
now based on what we're seeing so far.

Speaker 2 (06:25):
But will it pass this year, that's the real question.

Speaker 1 (06:28):
Let me jump to this tweet right here, because this
kind of is in align with what the Clarity Act
is talking about. And this is the SEC Commissioner talking
about that the token taxonomy to redefine crypto regulation is
now under way. He was unveiling this, and he doesn't
necessarily think that this is going to slow them down,
and in fact, without the Market Structure Bill being in place,

(06:48):
so they're already setting up for this, so it could
just be a formality before we actually see this.

Speaker 2 (06:53):
That's where the SEC is looking at it right now.

Speaker 1 (06:56):
Timing on the Senate ADS Market Structure Bill markup right now,
John Boozman, he's pointing at this date right here, which
is potentially early December, so still before the end of
the year, and that is kind of where we are
right now. This again could be the right timing for
the markets to react to this, because I do think

(07:16):
this will be one of the catalysts they help lead
it forward. Other things that are hitting right now. Of
course Matt Hogan hits on this, and that is Coinbase
relaunching their icos and of course uniswap throws the fee switch.
This is a new era for capital formation. I agree
with Matt Hogan on this. We talked about this yesterday
on the show. This is a big thing. Coinbase, of
course laid it out right here if you look at

(07:37):
over on their website. This is the breakdown of the
new standard for token sales. Not necessarily a masterful piece
here in terms of a lot of things you have
to do. Basically, it's filling up from the bottom. Their
request window is a little bit different and also putting
users first.

Speaker 2 (07:52):
So the clarity is right there.

Speaker 1 (07:55):
Could we see though, others start to go in this
direction for a platform for icos, thinking about Robinhood maybe
going in this direction. So good news I think for
being able to raise capital. JPM of course launched some
interesting news. This was a statement that they put out
and this was all about JP Morgan now being able
to swap JP Morgan D for USDC on Base.

Speaker 2 (08:19):
Now the question will be where do the fees come from?

Speaker 1 (08:22):
Because this is starting to isolate a lot of activity
into zones right now that have been mostly populated by
Base and Circle collecting those fees. Question is will this
be a transitionary period for JP Morgan or will they
be actually foregoing some of the fees in the market.
That's an issue that I think is going to be
facing big banks in the near future, So get ready

(08:44):
for that. Other things I want to hit on right now,
of course, Suey announced their big news and that is
its very own stable coin, and this of course is
coming under USD Suey. You guys of course can learn
and this is the first native, true native stable coin
that could be a big factor out there earning yield.

Speaker 2 (09:02):
And this will be a big factor, I think as.

Speaker 1 (09:04):
We see what sue is going to do with being
able to get it out there, because the biggest issue
I think most stable coin suppliers have is distribution. Now
Sue's got some and I think the audience probably when
I say the audience of a sue owner.

Speaker 2 (09:19):
Yes, but are they drawing in more users?

Speaker 1 (09:22):
I think that's the real question that they have to
compete against others that are doing a fairly good job
on that, especially if you look at coinbas and Circle
and others that kind of go in this direction of
having good distribution. That's the key point here. But one
thing that will draw them in is going to be
this incentives. So this is the incentive's just got refreshed

(09:43):
across single asset vaults and they look pretty good right
here if you just look at sue USDT at nine
to three and then there's deep at twenty nine percent.
So some pretty interesting things happening over on Kui Finance.
You guys should check it out. It's an interesting platform.
Other things that are happening right now. You've got the
Besant coming in talking about another two thousand dollars tariff

(10:05):
stimulus check that it's going to basically be available for
Americans who make less than one hundred k a year,
and of course that means people like in the because
I mean, really, if you think about it, for a
lot of people, especially in states like California that may
not even be considered in the right bracket. If you

(10:25):
take a look at this clip, this kind of breaks
down what else they're going to offer as a potential
stimulus to the economy.

Speaker 2 (10:31):
Take a look.

Speaker 4 (10:33):
I'm also the IRS commissioner, so what I can see
is that with the President's signature campaign promises no tax
on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on solid security,
auto deductibility of loans if you buy an American car.
Americans didn't change their withholding for twenty twenty five, so

(10:54):
we're going to see substantial refunds for working families at
the beginning in the first quarter twenty five, though chains
are withholding at the beginning of the year, and that
will be a natural real wage growth.

Speaker 5 (11:08):
So two things the President's thrown out, and I'll just
tell you what he said to make it shorter. He said, Hey,
I'm thinking about two thousand dollars stimulus checks coming from
the tariffs to everybody, and fifty year mortgages first off
on the two thousand dollars stimulus checks. Isn't that like
paying using your overdraft to pay off your credit cards?
Or isn't it like, you know, taking money from a
credit card and paying off your bills. Do you think

(11:29):
that that's the most fin financially responsible thing to do.

Speaker 4 (11:32):
Well, there are a lot of options here that the
President's talking about. It a two thousand dollars rebate, and
those that would be for families making less than say,
one hundred thousand dollars.

Speaker 5 (11:44):
Have you decided on that yet?

Speaker 1 (11:46):
We haven't, all right, so it seems still a little
bit uncertain as to win and if this is going
to happen. I noticed though, that in that clip Bessant
is doubling down on all these other you know, natural effects.
He's even talking about changing with holding. Yes, I understand

(12:06):
that reduces your tax implication, but if you don't have
the deductions now he is saying that there are some
deductions that have been.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
Awarded to that.

Speaker 1 (12:13):
That of course is almost like you know, a tax
rebate in essence that he's kind of doubling down. I
wonder if he's going to back into that being the
stimulus for the economy.

Speaker 2 (12:25):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
I'm just gonna be a little curious on this. Let
me go to another clip, because this is well as
Fargo talking about where this market could go from here.

Speaker 2 (12:33):
Take a look, oh son, it's good to have you here.

Speaker 6 (12:36):
Thanks, Rymy.

Speaker 2 (12:37):
You're calling for and everything rally in the year end.
Tell me more.

Speaker 6 (12:40):
Yeah, so we're targeting seventy one hundred by a year
end this year. Yeah, I think everything's gonna rally. The
market's gonna market is starting to broaden now, and we
see about five reasons why we think everything's scoring the valley.
Number One seasonality, especially for the Laggers. November, December, and
January are the most positive months for the Laggers. Number
to the APA Terris refund potential refund. We saw the

(13:03):
hearing last week. We expect the rulings sometime in December
or January. I think there's gonna be a reflation trade
into that event. Number Three, the texture turn. The tature
turn is going to be bigger this year because of
what beg curityful bill. We're talking about eight hundred dollars
per person on average versus last year, so that's going
to be another reflation event into next year. Earnings were

(13:24):
positive and potential government reopened sometimes this week hopefully. Our
central indicator actually triggered a by signal. It's the contrarian signal,
so sentiment act actually has gotten really negative as of
last Friday. So historically when our sentimentary by A signals triggered,
we saw the SMB five hundred rallying about seven and
a half percent over the next three months, being positive

(13:47):
ninety percent of the time. So this is a very
strong signal that we've got, all.

Speaker 1 (13:51):
Right, some interesting signals on trad fi here. But if
you look at the crypto market here fear and greed,
this may be the signal right now of where we
are because we are almost at the bottom again around
fear and greed.

Speaker 2 (14:05):
If you kind of look at where we have.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
Come from, imagine right there, back in October we were
holding at a sixty two. Bitcoin price was one twenty
four at the time, and even if you go back
into the previous which was back in May, bitcoin was
still only at one oh seven. So this is an
intriguing scenario that could play out through November, December, and January.

(14:28):
To Wells Fargo's analyst point right there is that sentiment
may be lifting in the market. Let me go to
one more thing right here, and of course this is
still bullish. This is for Ethereum. The Fusaka upgrade is coming,
and it's coming on December fourth. I know this has
been moved, but looks like December fourth is going to
be the new day. Remember the last time this happened
with Petra, eighth jumped forty percent, So nice little move there.

(14:52):
Could this happen with Ethereum. Let me know what you
guys think. Let's dive over to the chart real quick,
and I've got this marked out. This is the period
of when Pectra launched. In that seven day window, we
had about a fifty two percent move on ethereum, So
nice little move there. If you look at where we
are right now on e Let's go over and take
a look at this, because one thing to consider, do

(15:14):
we get that kind of move from where we're trading
right now at around thirty three eighty five, this would
be somewhere in the range of that five K window
that we've been kind of looking at for some time.
Could Fusaka be the catalyst that takes Ethereum to new
all time highs and into five K. It's going to
be a good one to let me know what you
guys think down in the comments. Of course, if you're

(15:35):
not part of the Diamond Circle, make sure and get
in on that. It's our own free group. It's absolutely
easy to join. Just click the link down below, follow
me out there on X and we'll catch you next
time right here on the Paul Barnshew