XRP ETF Launches with Extreme Fear!🔥Market Crash Update🔥

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The xrp ETF has finally launched.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
The governor shutdown is over, and of course now we're
dealing with a market that is in shambles. We'll break
it all down for you today, don't miss it. Let's
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(00:23):
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(00:44):
of like it. Let's go over and take a look
at where the market is right now. We are setting
at three point three trillion in market cap. Fear and
greed holding on at its probably lowest end quite some time.
As we start to really start to bump into what
could be another extreme fear zone coming in and I

(01:04):
think this is a factor right now that we are
starting to play into, mainly around FED rate cuts, what
that's going to look like going forward. A couple of
points that do play into this is five million airline
passengers were delayed or canceled. So this has kind of
had a pretty big effect on the economy in general.
The shutdown, I mean, six hundred and nineteen billion in

(01:25):
federal debt has been accrued, and then of course the
federal statistical system pretty much permanently damaged. I wonder if
the data is even going to be usable coming out
of what we're going to see from the government. October
jobs and inflation data may never be released, so that
is a missed opportunity by the FED just be able
to understand where we are in the market and the economy.

(01:47):
Forty three days of economic data currently delayed, seven and
fifty thousand federal workers fur load. This is a bigger
impact on the economy than I think. A lot of
people think. This has gone on far too long, and
I think it is now starting to show on and
we may see trickle effects coming over the next few
weeks as we start to see this play out in
the markets. Overall, the White House announced that the October

(02:10):
Jobs report will be released without an unemployment rate. Convenient,
my friend's convenient, no unemployment right for that. Let's go
to a clip real quick, because this is where they
are opening the government officially.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
Take a look.

Speaker 3 (02:25):
For forty three days, the government shutdown is now over
longest in history. So that vote last night, you saw
all the two House Republicans voting to reopen the government.
You saw six Democrats that crossed the aisle to join them.
And then, of course, as you're seeing there, Donald Trump
signing that bill last night, and the government's already telling
furloughed employees to come back to work today. All of

(02:47):
them will be getting the paychecks that they have missed
in back pay over the next few days. We're also
waiting to see exactly what the plan is for federal
data because while thing's like the September jobs report that
was ready to go before the shut down, but as
Becky just mentioned, no one was really collecting the data
for the October reports. And on Capitol Hill, the race
is now on for lawmakers to see if they can

(03:09):
extend those Affordable Care Act premium tax credits before they expire.
At the end of the year, and we'll see if
they're able to do that and avoid another potential shutdown.
On January thirtieth, guys, Emily, they left town again after
they voted.

Speaker 4 (03:23):
They weren't in session for more than fifty days.

Speaker 3 (03:28):
Yep. But I think Becky, there is really a big
question because you saw the Senate in this entire time.
You saw them move forward with major defense bills, you
saw them make progress on crypto, you saw them move
a lot of nominations and some legislation, and I think
there's a huge question of like, all right, what are
all the things that the House planned to do? And
some of the members who were back yesterday they were like, yeah,

(03:49):
there are definitely things that we feel are now in
the backlog that we're going to have to rush and
push to get done. We interested to see if they
make some changes for their schedule for the rest of
the year to try to get some of those bills.

Speaker 2 (04:01):
This is crazy, I think when you look at what
we've done in terms of a nation and really from
a political standpoint, not a good look. I think, well,
DC never has a good look, but this makes it
even worse. It also slows down what's really brewing, and
that is the lack of the Clarity Act coming through,
and I think what we might be seeing in the
market is maybe forecasting that exact issue is that Clarity

(04:24):
may get pushed into twenty twenty six. One thing I
want to showcase right here is I'm on the fifteen
minute chart for Bitcoin down. That's the Bitcoin chart on
the fifteen minute. Guys, this looks extremely suspicious as we
start to see these trade mechanisms moving down into at
time of recording ninety eight to three on bitcoin, as

(04:44):
we get a little bit of a move up and down.
This is the kind of thing that I think a
lot of people are going to probably be experiencing over
the next few weeks, especially if we do see the
FED start to waffle a little bit on a potential
rate cut. I'll talk about that in a second before
do we get into all that. Of course, one of
the bigger news items this week and today was that

(05:05):
the XRP ETF now began trading in the US with
Canary Capital.

Speaker 1 (05:10):
This is a pretty big deal.

Speaker 2 (05:11):
These are the dates to watch for that we've just announced,
of course, Canary being the first one that launched here
on November thirteenth. You've got Franklin Templeton coming in possibly
tomorrow or early next week, bit Wise on the nineteenth
and the twentieth, and then you get into twenty one shares,
coin Shares, Greyscale, Wisdom Tree all coming in later in November.
The likelihood of getting more activity on XRP is real.

Speaker 1 (05:34):
Now.

Speaker 2 (05:35):
The real question is is how does this sustain with
what is happening in the rest of the markets as
we flow in through November, especially with what's happening right now.
Here's the flows for the Canary XRP ETF opening pretty
strong in the first thirty minutes, stabilizing right now. We'll
see how this holds up in terms of the Canary

(05:55):
capital XRP ETF, which is XRPC if.

Speaker 1 (05:59):
You guys are trying to track it out there.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
One thing we will take a look at, probably early
next week, is see what the kind of performance is
in comparison to BISOL, which was launched by bit Wise. This,
of course, was Stephen McClure coming on our show talking
about that he thinks that the ETF could do five
billion in the first month. Now, you've got to remember
in that first thirty days you're going to have five

(06:22):
major ETFs launching a lot of institutional capital possibly pushing
into it, and the reality is can it hold in
a cycle where we may see a lot more volatility
comparing that to when the ETFs were launched, when Solana
ETF was launched. Those are the kind of things we're
watching right now because capital flow will be a critical one.

(06:44):
Larry Fink also is asking Black right now. Larry Fink
is asking asking Black Rock ETF guys why they didn't
file for an XRP ETF yet. And of course now
we are looking at possibly seeing even more activity within this.

Speaker 1 (06:59):
I think one thing.

Speaker 2 (06:59):
You've got to compared to and this is a good
breakdown by Eric Balschunis over at Bloomberg twenty six million volume.

Speaker 1 (07:06):
First thirty. He says, hey, that's crazy.

Speaker 2 (07:09):
It's going to blow away the seventeen million guests, which
is what he was kind of piggybacking on. Has a
good shot of beating Soul out, and that was fifty
seven million on its first day. I don't know if
it can sustain, but if it can, even at the
diminished trading volume that we saw after the opening, it's
possible that it could still make a run at BIESOL

(07:30):
on its first day one launch, which would be one
of the biggest launches.

Speaker 1 (07:34):
Of the year.

Speaker 2 (07:35):
Other things, of course playing out here is Matt Hogan
his median and open opinion of crypto assets does not
determine an ETF success, and this is a good statement.
You'd rather have twenty percent of the people love an
asset than eighty percent of people kind of vaguely like it,
because this is showing I think the XRP army at work,

(07:56):
going into whether it's retail or even how they influence
institutional capital to say this is one that you should keep,
not end up trading in and out. Of course, my
tweet right here, This was the calculation that we ran
on it over a six and a half hour trading
schedule that was based on the first thirty minutes of volume,
which was twenty six million.

Speaker 1 (08:17):
That's where it could go.

Speaker 2 (08:18):
Now, will it hit that based on a little bit
deterred volume later in the day, Probably not in that capacity,
but hitting the fifty seven million would be a huge
win for XRP. Salana Floor, of course, came in and
said ETF data for the first twelve consecutive days Salona
ETF's now recorded eighteen million in inflows, while Bitcoin and

(08:39):
eight so all combined outflows of four hundred and sixty
one million. This pretty big deal because this is cumulative
inflows to Salana have now reached three hundred and sixty
nine million overall, absolute high performer in terms of ETFs,
and I think institutional capital is starting to understand a
little bit more about the Salona ecosystem in its power.

(09:02):
The bad news side of things is this right here,
the chance of a rate cut in December is now
falling and it goes to fifty six percent, down from
seventy one. We've showed this before on the poly market,
and it's been up until we had the opening of
Kurt because remember we reported earlier in the week seventy
two percent was the holding position of a quarter basis points.

(09:25):
And almost every analyst I have talked to, both on
air and off, have been pushing to say the twenty
five is most likely going to happen. But yet what
we're seeing on poly market is a drastic recruit reduction
down to fifty two percent probability and the no change
starting to look like it could flip. As the primary

(09:47):
indicator for polymarket on the rake cut coming into December,
that's happening on December tenth. We will air that one
for sure. Other things to kind of consider, of course,
is the death cross. Everybody kind of looks at that.
This is a core traders looking at the four year cycle.
If you kind of compare this in what we've seen
over twenty twenty five, I mean, he would say right

(10:08):
now that the top has already been in for bitcoin.
If bitcoin makes a new all time high after this
death cross, this of course would break the cycle that
everybody's been pointing to for quite some time.

Speaker 1 (10:21):
Now.

Speaker 2 (10:21):
You look at cycles and you have to wonder what
the best investors out there are doing around this.

Speaker 3 (10:25):
Well.

Speaker 2 (10:26):
Michael Burry, one of the best investors you know, known
from the big short, closes down his hedge fund a
year end after acknowledging he doesn't understand the market anymore.
That was his resignation letter, basically to his investors, saying,
I think we're done. We're just gonna liquidate and return
all the capital, move right into it and for a
small audit done for the day, and he's passing the

(10:49):
torch off to one of his protegees. So I guess
the question is is is this a.

Speaker 1 (10:55):
New era of investors?

Speaker 2 (10:57):
Are we in an AI you know, innovation layer, much
like we were in the new era of investors that
started investing in internet stocks in the early nineties through
the early two thousands.

Speaker 1 (11:11):
Are we back into that?

Speaker 2 (11:11):
Because remember, guys, that's almost thirty years ago when we
started to see that kind of innovation once again. I
want to go to a clip real quick. This is
Andre Jick talking about investors and how AI plays in
Take a look.

Speaker 5 (11:25):
How can the company with thirteen billion in revenues make
one point for trillion of spend commitments. We're doing well
more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you
want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer.

Speaker 4 (11:38):
Then he says, the amount of money needed to build
AI and make it profitable might only be possible if
the government steps in and gets involved at some.

Speaker 5 (11:49):
Level when something gets sufficiently huge, whether or not they
are on paper. The federal government is kind of the
insurer of last resort in various financial crises and insurance
companies crerying things up.

Speaker 4 (12:03):
So the market was like, wait, are you asking for
a bailout? And he's like, no, it's just kidding. Right now,
those companies are all being funded with a ton of debt,
and for investors, that means for these companies to be
as valuable as they are today, they have to be
borrowing from a future that doesn't exist yet. Now, when

(12:23):
you add all this up and you look at what
some of the big investors have been doing, you might
be worried. Warren Buffett, for example, just sold billions of
dollars of stock and he's now sitting on the biggest
cash pile in the world. That doesn't look good. And
Michael Burry, the guy who predicted the two thousand and
eight financial crisis, his fund Scion, filed what's called a
thirteen F form where it shows he's putting eighty percent

(12:45):
of his portfolio betting against Nvidia and Pallenteer. So all
of this leads to the question are we in an
AI bubble? Data from Deutsche Bank says if it wasn't
for AI space right now, we'd be in a recession.

Speaker 2 (13:02):
So what Andrea was getting there is, obviously, could a
government bailout really start to jettison more money into these
companies which are essentially cash case well, potentially could be
cash cows. If we see AI take off, it's a
big bet. And if you kind of compare this, I
ran some numbers on this. This is in comparison to
the dot com era, and that was the era when

(13:24):
I was in a young engineer. I was working in
Silicon Valley at the time and saw this. It was
ninety five to two thousand was really where the birth
of that technology market was built on.

Speaker 1 (13:35):
It was when the Internet was basically created.

Speaker 2 (13:36):
So y had you went from VC investments of around
seven billion in ninety five to about one hundred billion
by twenty twenty. Now we all know what happened in
twenty twenty. That was about eighty percent of the late
nineteen nineties funding going into Internet tech startups. Now, the
comparison of that, because the NaSTA composite went up four
hundred percent between ninety five and two thousand, then had

(13:59):
that absolute crash, which was the dot bomb era that
did occur. The difference between that era and where we
are now is there's only a handful of companies right now.
There's five, maybe six good companies that I would say
are living off of this kind of productivity and cash
injection from all these v season and big money investors

(14:21):
versus back in that era it was hundreds of companies
that were getting that kind of injection, So that would
be the big difference there. But if you compare that
in the parallel of where we were then to where
we are now based on inflation, it has a lot
of similarities in comparison to the dot bomb era. So
I don't know that it's a bad thing. I do

(14:42):
not agree with the idea of a bailout with exception
of one thing, and that of course would be national security.
If we see that on the global stage, we're seeing
things happen in other countries, Okay, I would agree that
maybe there's something there, you know, if you think about
like Boeing or something like Lockheed Martin, I understand if

(15:04):
it's a defense mechanism, which is I think eventually where
this is going. So not a good sign right now
as we start to look forward. Let me go to
a couple other points I want to hit on, because
this is important as we look into this, because this
was a This is Stanley Druger Miller talking about that.
Because this is all building around the investors that are
trying to go into this market right now, And it's

(15:25):
basically saying Burry shutting down Scion doesn't necessarily mean he's
leaving the market. It likely means he's changing the arena.
I get it, because this starts to get into a
whole new crop of investors looking at the way the
market will move. And it's very difficult to understand this
kind of scale in only a handful of companies a
dozen companies right now controlling the S and P five hundred.

(15:49):
That is why I think we're starting to see guys
like Burry kind of throw in the towel. Institutions also
have to stake ETH on a decentralized infrastructure for this
to work. A couple of points within the article, A
green light for institutions taking alone will not signal a
long term future for ETH unless institutions can embrace the
philosophy of decentralization. This to me is absolutely what is

(16:15):
going to have to happen, because I think there will
be institutions out there that will try it and will fail,
and then there will be institutions out there that will
try the decentralized model of where ETH is going and
they're going to win. Now, whether it's the old guard
or it's a new guard that starts to develop this.
That's going to be the real question, much like what

(16:37):
Burry's talking about leaving the because he doesn't understand the market.
And I think that's where we are right now. It
is a major shift, a major financial shift. It's exactly
like Dob Bam in that era, it was a major
technological shift for society to see the Internet being born.
I think we're in the same place right now, but
it's only the Internet of payments. You got the cash

(16:58):
app of course coming in and say hey, we're going
to do stable coins supportant now launching in twenty six
I think is what he means. They're not bitcoins, but
stable coins starting early next year. Cash apps fifty eight
million users, and this is in comparison to PayPal. PayPal's
like four hundred and fifty million users, So it's not
a huge but it is a big deal going forward

(17:18):
in the fact that it could start to trickle in
to a lot of payment providers and also apps that
will start utilizing stable coin.

Speaker 1 (17:26):
Of course, that's big for Ethereum.

Speaker 2 (17:28):
One thing that you do have to look at is
what's happening right now with unice swap in terms of
what we will see on companies being able to raise capital.
What I mean by that is icos because this could
really put some pressure on coinbase and others out there.
What unicewap is doing with this fee swich is a
big deal. It's unfortunate the market is in the position
it is right now to really appreciate what this is doing.

(17:51):
I know many of you probably sold your unit swamp
after that big run up, and.

Speaker 1 (17:55):
Maybe now is a good time to jump back in.
We'll see.

Speaker 2 (17:58):
Of course, other things that are happening is you've got
banks piloting stable coin led tax refunds. That's right, tax
refunds coming in right now in South Korea, and they're
doing it on an avalanche.

Speaker 1 (18:10):
This would get interesting if.

Speaker 2 (18:12):
The Trump administration came up with something like this where
it was instantaneous, that could be a little bit of
a stimulus to the market and also could set up
the ability to do blockchain payments from the federal government. Now,
I don't want to say the word UBI or I
want to say the word about you might get stimulus,
but that could be one of the models. And of

(18:33):
course all that could be looked at on something like Avalanche,
and if you look at this right here, here's Alvi
Cloud talking about this refunds without pay performs, Kiosk delays
all that boom done, and of course they're doing this
in collaboration with MasterCard fire Blocks, So a lot of
big players on this. If you take a look at
the charts real quick, well, look at as I just
showed you Bitcoin, I want to show you eth holding

(18:55):
almost in the same position. Guys, something fishy is a
foot right here. Let's take a look at Salana. Interesting
moves in the market right now, Avalanche going down to
fifteen ninety, a little bit more consistent there, chain Link
also dropping into its load around fourteen twenty. You can
see the market is really starting to see some big

(19:17):
pressure right now as stable coin dominance continues to move up.

Speaker 1 (19:21):
So be ready, guys.

Speaker 2 (19:23):
This could either be a spot in the market to
look at dollar cost averaging, or it could be a
spot in the market that starts to move us into
dare I say, a bear market going forward? You guys
don't want to miss all of this and more, because
we're gonna be covering this along with a lot more
as we start to really check the barometer of where

(19:43):
the market is going in the next few days is
going to be very critical over the weekend. Join the
Diamond Circle is absolutely free. Click the link down below,
follow me out there on x Apple Baron. We'll catch
next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.

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XRP ETF Launches with Extreme Fear!🔥Market Crash Update🔥

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