🚨BIG CRYPTO NEWS! FED WILL PUMP ASSETS WITH QE & BANKS FIGHT STABLECOIN YIELD!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
On your way in. Police Sit that subscribe button as
well as a thumbs up button and leave a comment below. Folks,
you can probably tell I am not recording from my
home studio today. I'm at a hotel in the lobby.
Actually I'm on vacation with the family. But there's some
big updates that you need to know about that's happening

(00:26):
in the crypto markets. I wanted to get you guys
the latest and greatest, of course, and first is some
comments from Ray Dahalio. And many of you know he's
the most successful well, he ran the most successful hedge fund.
He's a macro investor. He's been putting out a lot
of alpha over the past couple of years. And you know,
I always watch his interviews. He's very thoughtful. He understands

(00:48):
the cycle of liquidity, human behavior, psychology, and all those things.
So the headline is Ray Dahlio warns the FED is
stimulating the economy into a bubble. So we know the
Fed they're ramping down quantitative tightening, quantitative tightening is going
to end December first, and after that they're going to
go into full money printing with quantitative easing. We know

(01:11):
when they do these activities like quantitative easing, that drives
asset prices higher. Now Ray is concerned because with the
economy not in a great place and the FED doing
these actions, it's going to inflate the asset bubble even greater.
And this is why I've been saying, I don't believe
the bull market's over, even though these are red flags.

(01:33):
This is why we want to make sure we're identifying
that top zone and taking profits at a certain point
before there's a peak to the market. So here's what
Ray had to say. The US Federal Reserves decision to
ease monetary policy is inflating an economic bubble that could
drive up prices of hard assets, but also marks the

(01:55):
final phase of the of a seventy five year economic cycle. Typically,
the Federal Reserve eases interest rates when economic activity is
stagnating or declining, asset prices are falling, unemployment is high,
and credit dries up, as seen during the Great Depression
of the nineteen thirties or the two thousand and eight
financial crisis. So Ray published this article on x However,

(02:18):
the FED is now easing monetary policy at a time
of low unemployment, economic growth, and rising asset prices, dahl
Year wrote, which is typical of late stage economies saddled
with too much debt. So I think we all know
these central banks. They're all stuck in a between a
rock and a hard place because the Fiat system requires

(02:40):
that you have to continue to print and debase the currency.
But that causes a lot of economic problems with inflation
and higher cost of services and goods, of course, but
it also inflates asset prices, so this is where you
have to diversify into assets. But it creates these bubbles,
and we know when these bubbles get too big, as

(03:01):
we've seen with the dot com bubble, the real estate bubble,
and one could argue this one could be kind of
a nineteen twenty nine ish. I'm not saying it's going
to be exactly like nineteen twenty nine. You know, you
could see a big crash, But what we've seen since
two thousand and eight, their solution is to keep printing,
so we know they're not going to let it get

(03:22):
to a nineteen twenty nine level. Because all the boomers,
everybody's retirements are in you know, these assets, stocks, real
estate much more so they can't let the collateral the
assets go to zero because that will collapse the economy
if you understand how this all works. So I think

(03:42):
ray signal here shows higher asset pricers that are coming,
but it comes with a warning that there could be
a big crash at some point and it's going to
be pretty nasty. So this is where I don't believe
the bull market's over. I believe global liquidity is still
a leading indicator continues to rise. I think the Fed

(04:02):
will go back to quantitative easing, and we'll see maybe
at the time they are ready to go into quantitative easing,
it will be a bider rumor sell the news event
with a massive crash. So these are things to think about.
But it's also a macro factor that's showing it's not
over as yet, so it's important to think about, you know,

(04:24):
what may be ahead and think about this from a
macro perspective. Here's a chart that Crypto currently a great
analysts shared. He says Bitcoin can be quite volatile in
the short term, but the long term trajectory remains clear,
global liquidity has to rise or the entire system collapses.
So again, if you follow global liquidity, which is leading
all the asset prices, whether it be the stock market,

(04:45):
real estate, crypto, precious metals as well. And we saw
gold do a parabolic rally. It topped out, and I
believe there's going to be a rotation into stocks and crypto.
There is a bit of a lag, but I think
that's on the horizon. But global equidity is the leading
in so crypto currently says global liquidity has to rise
or the entire system collapses. The FED has to restart QI,

(05:09):
the US government has to reopen. I remember in order
for the government to reopen, they have to fund it, right.
So this is why every time we've seen these situations,
it's not the end of the world. It's annoying. It's
a lot of people are out of work, you know
who work for the government. It's and it slows the government,
you know, being able to get things done. But when

(05:29):
they reopen, it's this macro sigh of relief plus the
liquidity that follows it. So again, I still think we
got upside here. Here's an interesting take from JP Morgan,
and it's not wrong. I'm not taking their information without
doing my own research, but I think it's right. JP
Morgan says bitcoin looks cheap next to goal points to
one hundred and seventy k fair value, so that's the

(05:51):
fair value of bitcoin. Higher than that it would be
over fair value and in the expensive area where you
know that could signal a top. We'll have to wait
and see how things play out. Obviously we've been dealing
with a lot of volatility, but we've been in extreme
fear sentiment and bitcoin in the oversoul zone. So let's

(06:13):
be patient and see. We may not get that epic
rally towards the end of the year. It may come
in Q one, but look, we don't have a crystal ball.
But we'll have to wait and see. We are following
the macro signals to see how this all plays out.
But the thesis is still in place here now quick
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(06:34):
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(06:55):
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(07:18):
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(07:42):
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(08:04):
been tried and tested. So something to check out there.
All right, let's move ahead. The banks don't want you
to continue to earn yield on exchanges. They hate that
you're earning you know, five six percent or even four percent.
Then the bs, you know, interest they give you and
your savings account. So banks lobby US Treasury for blanket

(08:25):
stable coin yield ban. But Coinbase is pushing back, and
it's not just Coinbase, other firms as well. We know Uphold,
one of my sponsors. They also offer a yield on
stable coin. The banks hate that, and we know the
banks are taking a lot of that yield they earn
on treasuries and so forth. That's why they make record profits.
But they give you peanuts, right, they give you the breadcrumbs.

(08:46):
But we have options. Now. You know, I personally STEAK
US D, c R, l U, s D and others
were earn those passive rewards. Now is it all my cash?
Of course not right, But again these are not giving
you anything, and they think the fact that there's competition here.
So this is great to see that the disruption is happening.

(09:08):
It kind of sucks that they're fighting back, but they're losing.
The Genius Act has been passed and it's been put
into place. Here a Circle weighs in on the Genius
Act implementation. We know, Circle is the second largest stable
coin issuer with USDC, following Tether of course with USDT.
So they're advocating for a level playing field among banks,

(09:29):
non banks, and stable cooin issuers as the US Treasury
Department considers implementing the Genius Act following its signing into
law in July. So we'll see, you know, are these
banks able to lobby? I don't think so. Donald Trump
has made it clear, you know, he wants the U
and I says, to be the crypto capital of the world,
and stable coins are going to play a big part

(09:49):
in that. So let's see what happens. Guys. These banks
are not giving up, but they've already lost I think
the war. They're fighting these little battles, but they're still
they've lost the whole right as soon as these bills
made it through. And remember these are the guys that
were lobbying Elizabeth Warren and Gary Genster over the years
to try to stop coinbase, stop the other exchanges in

(10:11):
crypto projects. Now look at this news. This is very bullish.
UN agency to launch blockchain education advisory programs for governments.
So we are seeing a global movement of educating people
about crypto, blockchain tech, and much more. It is coming
from the IMF, it is coming from the BIS, the
Bank of International Settlements, it is coming from massive associations.

(10:34):
It's incredible. And here you got the United States. So
if you think blockchain and crypto is going away, wake up,
it's not so. The United Nations Development Program plans to
launch two initiatives aimed at helping countries adopt blockchain technology.
Let me read the latter half of that sentence, again,
aimed at helping countries adopt blockchain technology. This is the

(10:56):
UN we're talking about here. Do you see where we're headed? Right? So,
Robert Pasico, the leader of the UNDP's Financial Technology team
alt finn Lab toll coin Telegraph at the UN City
offices in Copenhagen, Denmark, that the organization plans to launch
a bock chain education program for government officials alongside a

(11:18):
blockchain advisory body. Essentially, all the countries, all the government
officials get up to speed understand this technology. As I've
been telling you, all blockchain rails will power the markets,
the economies, and governments, folks. That's where we're headed. So
the initiative builds on the UNDP's existing Blockchain Academy for
un staff, now aimed at helping governments implement blockchain in

(11:40):
real rural applications. Pasico said that in a few weeks,
the new academy will begin operations and select for governments
to work with. He expects formal approval for the initiative
within one to two weeks. He says training is just
part of it, Pastico said, noting that the organization will
also help initiatives move further through project development. He said

(12:03):
that research conducted by the UNDP found three hundred potential
use cases for governments willing to adopt blockchain technology. See
why I'm saying this is bullish news. If you've got
the governments on board, you have the banking financial institutions
on board, what do you think is going to happen here? Folks? Right,

(12:24):
there's a more higher prices coming. We just got a
stomach through the volatility and the syclicality of liquidity and
all these things. This is why I keep preaching macro
macro macros, Zoom out when endowed, zoom out. Look at this.
Robot Ventures leads five point two million dollars seed round
for a Sprinter, a solving as a service startup founded

(12:48):
by Ethereum Ogs. So this is interesting. Sprinter, a cross
chain solving as a service infrastructure startup raised five point
two million dollars in each round, led by robot Venture
alongside several notable angels. The protocol is looking to improve
transaction execution performance, in part by providing solvers and market

(13:08):
makers with collateral free credit. So the innovation continues. The
investments in different companies continues, folks, and these are signs
of a growing asset class in industry. So these are
things I want to look at. I also want to
look at where these funds are putting their money when
as it relates to token projects, you know, is there
a token, because that could be a great way to

(13:31):
get an idea. What may happen to that token as
more liquidity is added behind it? Right, we've seen vcs
put a lot of money behind certain projects and they
do well. Now that's not the only factor, you know,
there needs to be utility adoption, people building on the chain,
daily active users, monthly active users, revenue off of fees
and things like that. So it's important to look at

(13:53):
what the hedge ones and the vcs are doing and
where they're putting their capital. Let's move ahead. We got
Google Finance to roll out polymarket and Calshi prediction markets
data in search results. Boy, is this validation of prediction
markets right? And we know prediction markets are blockchain powered
and it's disrupting the whole survey model that we've seen

(14:17):
out there for politics and other things. It's incredible what's happening.
And Google recognizes them now they're integrating it into search.
That's a big vote of confidence there. So poly markets, volume,
active traders, and new markets hit all time highs in
October as prediction markets continue the games theme, and even
with some of the elections that happened recently, the prediction

(14:38):
markets got it right again. They got it right in
the twenty twenty four elections. They got it write just
recently with some of these state local type of elections,
So pretty incredible stuff here. Now, it wouldn't surprise me
if Google launched their own prediction market eventually, or they
went and bought at one of these guys polymarketed Calci. Right,
we've seen Google's mo. If they see something that they

(15:02):
can get more participants and users in their network, they
will go and make that acquisition. They did it with YouTube,
they did it with other projects out there. Many of
these things they didn't build homegrown, so they would go
out and make the acquisition and that would expand their
user base and their whole network. And that's why they're
a giant that they are. So wouldn't surprise me if

(15:25):
they went and acquired a prediction market. It just makes
sense because there's so much data. These prediction markets don't
just cover finance, they cover politics, they cover pop culture.
I mean there are markets for like just some of
the dumbest things sometimes. But look, that's human behavior online, right,

(15:45):
people are gambling and creating markets. So there's a lot
of data there and we see these these data has
been pretty accurate, fairly accurate, I wouldn't say one hundred percent,
but there's a lot of value. So anyway, I think
Google could certainly certainly go out and acquire one of
these companies eventually or build their own. I don't know.
They already have the network of users, so it would

(16:06):
be easy to port those people over to their own
prediction market. Orr. Folks, that's the news. Let me know
what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below. I
apologize if the audio is not great. As mentioned, I'm
recording from a hotel lobby, but I wanted to bring
you guys the latest and greatest as far as what's
happening in the market and as it relates to price.
You know, there's nothing to talk about right now. It's
just chop. We got until Bitcoin finds at bottom and

(16:29):
then starts moving and then we can really look at
things and where they're at. But right now Big coin's
just doing this thing. There's no invalidation of the macro thesis,
so just something to think about, folks. Be sure to
subscribe to my free email newsletter. It's one hundred percent free.
Link will be in a description. Check out my book
on Amazon and my course at Mycrypto course dot com,

(16:51):
a comprehensive course that teaches you everything about crypto. Thank
you for tuning in. I appreciate you all, and I'll
talk to you all later

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