Crypto Market Analysis! Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, & Solana Price Outlook!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Yeah, they have dropped about twenty four point to twenty
four point three k bitcoin since that time, about eighteen
days ago. That's a pretty long stretch of them dropping
their coins, and historically when they flatten.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Out or they are you know, not accumulating.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
Which is the norm, that's when we see these big drops.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your
host Tony Edward and joining me is Brian from Santiment,
And as you all know, we're going to do a
deep dive into the metrics round bitcoin in all coins
to help you navigate this market because we want to
look at the data, not our feelings and emotions. Brian,
Happy Friday, Great to see you.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
Happy Friday, Happy Halloween to all who celebrate.

Speaker 1 (00:51):
Yeah, it's you said it perfectly. We're trying to measure
things with our logic and with data rather than getting
to emotionally investor, especially right now after we've had a
bit of a down week.

Speaker 2 (01:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:03):
Absolutely, And you know usually we record this earlier in
the week, but we had some big announcements this week
from the FED that they're going to continue to cut
rates and that they're ending quantitative tightening come December.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
First.

Speaker 3 (01:13):
In addition, some progress not a full resolution with the
US China trade tariff situation. So I think it's a
good time to be recording and people are searching for answers. Brian,
the sentiment is not looking too good.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
Yeah, I mean it's interesting.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
The sentiment has been all over the place, as we'll
check out shortly, but we definitely saw some serious fear
a couple days ago, and we've been talking or then
we were talking about how we were probably going to
get some sort of relief rally to punish all of
those fudsters out there who were selling off while things
were hemorrhaging.

Speaker 2 (01:46):
And now we've kind of had.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
A minor, minor relief rally, and going into the weekend,
it's going to be a bit of a head scratcher
as to whether we were safe for a few days
or if we start to continue to pour down now
that people are going to their hopes up again.

Speaker 3 (02:01):
Now I've often stated over the years, Brian, any week
there's an FMC meeting or some update from the FED,
there's tons of volatility, and I've been telling people like, hey,
I can't even judge the market right now, Like I
think we need to give it a week or a
few days or whatever, right so that the dust settles.
Because it is just market makers and whales. They play
the games and there's just tons of volatility. The markets

(02:23):
are fooling people, doing fake outs and much more so.

Speaker 2 (02:28):
I think some of this is a bit of.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
An overreaction, but there are some bearish signals on the
charts and things like that.

Speaker 2 (02:34):
Yeah, I totally agree.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
It's such a difficult thing to measure because it's seemingly
been throughout twenty twenty five that whenever a FED rate
cut is on the horizon, or even just an FOMC
meeting in general, people are.

Speaker 2 (02:50):
Faked out.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
And that's kind of just the double edged sword of
crypto markets. It's such a speculative driven market that whatever
the crowd slash retail group expects, the opposite tends to occur.
And it's almost like a three wave pattern most of
the time, where you've got this build up which we
see in.

Speaker 2 (03:10):
This illustrated chart here.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
This is from October twenty fifth all the way until
the end of day twenty ninth, which was the day
of the FMC, So we had this big build up
going into it because the interest rate cuts were almost
a sure thing.

Speaker 2 (03:28):
At that point.

Speaker 1 (03:29):
Polymarket was showing like ninety something ninety five to ninety
eight percent going into the week, so people were pretty positive.
So it was kind of by the rumor time, right,
We've all heard the saying by the rumor, sell the news,
or sell the rumor, buy the news. This was the former,
and we saw this big build up go up to
one sixteen K. We get this ranging the day before

(03:52):
and then oh what do you know, going into about
twelve hours before the meeting, our night times while we
were sleeping here in the un we get this big
drop off. Then a little more chopping, we get a
little more hope. This is right before the meeting here,
and then boom, right before the speech starts, we suddenly
get this drop and everyone's going, what the heck the

(04:14):
speech hasn't started. I still am hearing that there's gonna
be cuts. Why is this happening? Well, the smart money,
the key stakeholders were like, you know what, we sold
here because the crowd was buying in so much, we
let it build up one more time and then we
decided to sell here. I won't get into the nitty

(04:36):
gritty details, but there was evidence that there were a
lot of big whale transactions here and here right before
the meeting, and then we drop off. We get the speech.
I know the screen's a little hard to see. I'll
make it just a tiny bit bigger. We get the
speech right here. That's what this mild green bar is.
And then all of a sudden he starts to turn
hawkish where he says, yes, I'm cutting rates as you

(04:59):
guys expect did I'm paraphrasing obviously, but we aren't going
to guarantee anything the rest of the year. We're still
worried about inflation, the economy, you know this, and that
is not looking too hot. So that caused people to say, well,
we got our outcome, but we're scared of you know,

(05:21):
him not doing that third rate cut come next month,
and that's going to concern us. So we get this
tiny little ray of hope followed by another drop, and
it eventually got all the way down to one oh
seven k yesterday and now it's popping back up again.

Speaker 2 (05:38):
But it was a very interesting pattern. I wrote.

Speaker 1 (05:41):
I made this longer term chart that really shows the
series of fake outs we saw this year, going all
the way back to April, which was right after you know,
the tariff madness at the beginning of the month, followed
by this rate or FMC meeting where nothing happened. There
was no rate cuts I think until the first one

(06:04):
was in September, if I'm not mistaken, But we have
the FOMC meeting that actually sparks a huge rally after
it was going down initially. You can see the price
here in the corner going down right before, and then
the FOMC meeting happens and we go on.

Speaker 2 (06:20):
This massive relief rally right back.

Speaker 1 (06:22):
From ninety seven k all the way up to one
oh one eight, one oh nine something like that. So
that ended up being a fake out. The next one
happens in mid June. This was right before like the
US Iran Israel battle, and that was kind of a
mixed reaction, but it did go down right after. Then

(06:46):
we zoom all the way to the end of July.
This was a fake out where we thought, oh, maybe
there's gonna be a rate cut.

Speaker 2 (06:52):
Turns out no price goes down.

Speaker 1 (06:55):
This is the one where Trump got really mad at
Powell and was saying he needs to be fired and stuff.
Some of you may remember that. Then we get another
fake out here in mid August, right after the then
all time high. I think it was right above one
twenty K, might have been one twenty one at the time.
So we go down. The FOMC meeting gives people hope.

(07:16):
We get a big jump here, and then another fake out,
then another one in mid September.

Speaker 2 (07:22):
We build up, build up, build up.

Speaker 1 (07:24):
This is very similar to the one we just had,
and then a big fake out happens at the FOMC
meeting despite rate cuts happening, and we go down. Then
this latest one, we're going down going into the FOMC meeting.

Speaker 2 (07:38):
We get a.

Speaker 1 (07:39):
Tiny little bounce, then further down, and then today we're
going up.

Speaker 2 (07:43):
So what have we learned from this?

Speaker 1 (07:45):
Expect the unexpected, right whatever retail is essentially thinking the
logical outcome is. They're the ones that are creating the waves, thinking.

Speaker 2 (07:57):
That, oh, you know, this is supposed to be what occurs.

Speaker 1 (08:02):
Retail is buying because they say, oh, the rate cut
is happening, just like we expect, and then they're scratching
their heads, going, I got fooled when they see the
prices go down. So it always tends to be kind
of either a two or three way pattern where they
either buy going into it, then there's a sell off,
then another buy, or they sell going into it, bounce happens,

(08:23):
and then it goes down further.

Speaker 2 (08:25):
Right now, we kind of are seeing the third wave where.

Speaker 1 (08:30):
The rate cut happened, prices went down, retail says I
got fooled, I'm selling off, and now we're buying as
the smart money scoops up all of the fud money
out there. Right now, that's my long tangent about the
whole series of events that has happened, not just with
this one but throughout the year.

Speaker 3 (08:51):
Yeah, and to your point, there's a lot of mind
to rumors sell the news event type things happening here
with market makers and whales.

Speaker 2 (08:58):
You know.

Speaker 3 (08:58):
The other factor that people are looking at as President
Trump meeting with President She and that you know, there
was could be some resolution to the tarrort situation. Now
there have been some positive news, but it hasn't been
fully resolved. Are people talking about that is at influencing
any of the social sentiments?

Speaker 2 (09:15):
Yeah, great question.

Speaker 1 (09:17):
So this is the last month or so, let's just
go yeah, about the last month here, so we can
look at three of the big driving topics that have
been happening more on the political side of the fence
here in the US. The first one, of course, was
cz getting pardoned. It's been about almost two weeks now

(09:38):
since that happened. You see the big spike here about
eight nine days ago, and markets actually moved up. This
was kind of a signal to crypto that, oh, the
good guys can have some solace, they can have some
relief and get pardoned for you know, some things that
I think the crypto crowd felt were overblown on his

(10:01):
end in terms of money laundering and stuff like that.
So this was kind of a celebratory event people like
CEZ and markets went up as a result for a
variety of reasons as well. It wasn't just because it's easy.
Besides that, we've had some discussions between Trump and Russia,
because Trump's been a little firm about, you know, putin

(10:22):
ending the war on Ukraine and things like that. So
that got a big spike about two weeks ago. Right
at the bottom. We got a rally right as that
big spike occurred, and it's kind of died down for now.
I still think it's going to be an ongoing thing
going into the rest of the year. Obviously, I can't
predict things like war's ending. None of us can, other

(10:45):
than Trump and Putin pretty much. But you can see
that that's been an ongoing discussion and more volatility definitely
occurs whenever there's a headline about, you know, talks between
Trump and Russia or Trump and Putin. And then lastly,
as you mentioned Trump and China, the discussions between him

(11:06):
and she regarding tariffs and trade policy, that's undoubtedly going
to rock markets. Whenever, you know, Trump puts out a
truth social post about being mad at him or we're
all good now, that seems to make a big difference.
You can see the biggest spike happening right.

Speaker 2 (11:23):
At the bottom.

Speaker 1 (11:26):
So there was this big sell off from the initial
people who saw the post from truth Social, and then
when the crowd realized it maybe six hours later or so,
that's when they said, oh no, we've got to sell
off now. And as soon as the crowd said it's
time to sell off, what do you know, we get
that bounce. So there's there's definitely been three driving factors

(11:48):
from that economic spectrum over the past three ish weeks
or so interesting. So I'm curious how this is affecting
the bitcoin MVRV.

Speaker 2 (12:00):
Look at that.

Speaker 1 (12:01):
So from an MVRV perspective, we can see that the
overall thirty day average returns is that about negative two
and a half percent. Pretty good sign As long as
the mvrvs are staying in the negative range, we are
in a less risky position than usual in terms of

(12:22):
buying in adding on to our positions or even holding.

Speaker 2 (12:26):
The three sixty five day MVRV ratio is.

Speaker 1 (12:30):
Just above zero at about plus five point eight call
it six percent or so, And overall this tells us
we're in a pretty average situation here. Both of these
from like you know, a like a long term perspective,
are pretty much at eden right now.

Speaker 2 (12:48):
I mean, just below.

Speaker 1 (12:50):
Zero for the thirty day, just above for the three
sixty five day. It really means that things can go
either way. I know that's not the most helpful answer,
but it at least means we're not in the same
positions we were in in like mid July when the
mvrvs were super high, or even in just about three
weeks ago when we hit that all time high on
October sixth, we had a clear signal that we were

(13:13):
overbought with you know, the thirty day MVRV being above
seven percent, three sixty five day being above twenty one percent.
Those are the kind of scary danger zones that can
safely tell you can take profit and not be in
too much pain at that time. So we're basically hitting

(13:34):
the reset button now. Yeah, that makes sense.

Speaker 3 (13:36):
And to your point, what we've seen historically of you know,
these numbers go negative, that's actually good for the next rally,
major rally, So you can certainly use this data to
swing trade or you know whatever, even if you're a
long term holder. You see that, Look, the market's going
to bottom out at some point, right. Markets don't go
down forever and they don't go up forever, but it's

(13:58):
just this cyclical pattern. Yeah, there were there were a
few very.

Speaker 1 (14:04):
Slight times over the past week where you could see
both of them were going very negative, and those are
really the times historically, like in the last six months
or so if we zoom out here, I mean, especially
when they both go negative like this little sliver on
October seventeenth, when that big crash happened.

Speaker 2 (14:25):
That was a clear by signal.

Speaker 1 (14:26):
So you get it on both both sides of the
fence by when the crowd is in pain and there's
blood in the streets, and sell when you've got everyone
euphoric and starting to daydream about those lambos.

Speaker 3 (14:42):
So on that note, what are the whales doing? Are
they accumulating? Are they exiting a bit?

Speaker 2 (14:48):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (14:48):
So in terms of the bearish argument is this is
the strongest one that the bears have right now, and
it is a bit concerning for all the pro crypto
longers out there right now. We look at October twelfth,
the group of ten to ten k BTC wallets who
are holding a little over sixty eight percent of all

(15:09):
of bitcoin. This is a very impactful group. They were
at about thirteen point seven million bitcoin held overall, and
they have dropped about eighteen point four k btc over
those excuse me, Actually, I've got a refresh so we
can see the past week. Let's a go past six months. Yeah,

(15:30):
they have dropped about twenty four point two twenty four
point three k bitcoin since that time about eighteen days ago.
That's a pretty long stretch of them dropping their coins.
And historically when they flatten out or they are you know,

(15:51):
not accumulating, which is the norm, that's when we see
these big drops, and some may argue that's already happened here,
but I mean the closest compareson and I see is
here back in February, where they were dropping maybe fifty
five K in that same stretch, so about double what
we're seeing now. They they dumped pretty significantly and the

(16:12):
price dropped thirteen fourteen percent, sixteen percent I see here,
And generally the line follows these these smart money whales
pretty closely. It's not perfect, but from a long term perspective,
if they're dumping or at least not accumulating for a
long stretch, the price tends to suffer. So I'm really

(16:34):
hoping that they start to turn around and we get
a little accumulation. Generally, if prices fall enough, they get
satisfied and they say, okay, I'm going to buy back
in now.

Speaker 2 (16:43):
So we'll see.

Speaker 1 (16:45):
If you know, price is sitting at one oh nine k,
has been enough blood for them to say, all right,
I'm going to start adding to my bags again.

Speaker 3 (16:54):
Yeah, great point, because we just look at the bitcoin MVRV.
Maybe that goes a bit lower. The sentiment in a
gutter right to your point. They're like, wait a minute,
all the retail they're not bullish anymore. Now it's time
for us to scoop it up again and rings and repeat.

Speaker 1 (17:11):
Yeah, and we can take a look at sentiment here
on that point, because it's been kind of a jackal
and hide day by day situation for the retail traders.
If we look at where they were super negative. Oh
what a coincidence it was as prices fell off a
cliff after Trump put out that post about one hundred

(17:32):
percent tariffs about China. So just like we saw back
in early April with the big poster board saying he's
tariffing the whole world, we get this big negative sentiment spike,
and then we get the bounce. Retail starts to change
their mind, but they're still kind of bearished.

Speaker 2 (17:47):
They're they're not convinced. Then we get this.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
Big bounce, and they've actually been kind of average to
above average on sentiment, which you might think is a
good thing, but it's not. We don't want to see
retail starting to cheer up and say, Okay, the water's
clear again. We want them to stay down here. And
today it's been a short sample size because the day's

(18:11):
only half complete. They're actually showing one of the more
positive days we've seen over the past three months or so.
So I don't love this. I'm a little surprised by
how optimistic the crowd has switched back to when they
were so you know, down in the dumps just a

(18:32):
week to two weeks ago.

Speaker 3 (18:34):
Yeah, so to your point, and this is not guaranteed,
but it could mean there's further downside for the price
a bitcoin. Right the wheels they start not ape well
exiting a bit, and then the price goes down, sentiment
flips to fear, and then they start accumulating it like we've.

Speaker 2 (18:52):
Seen in the past.

Speaker 1 (18:54):
Yeah, it's funny how quickly people change their minds based
on whatever the price is doing. As we were talking
before the show started, Tony, we also see, you know
a lot of these downswings correlate with increased talks about tariffs,
just as you would suspect. The biggest one, of course,
was after Trump made that post. Then there was another

(19:15):
one right at the bottom on the seventeenth, and then
the latest small one happening just a day ago. And
really it comes down to sometimes it's because of an
actual tariff announcement, and sometimes people just see the price
fall and they say, what could be causing this? And
then they need to attribute it to something and they

(19:36):
say it's the terriffs, even if nothing happened.

Speaker 3 (19:40):
So it's funny. There's a saying narrative follows the price, right.
It's people need a story, They need a narrative.

Speaker 1 (19:47):
There's always something that people have to latch onto to
give themselves assurance that there's a reason for their portfolio
is going down. It's not the same way when prices
go up. If bitcoin goes up, they just say that's
that's what bitcoin's supposed to do. We don't need to
point to any reason why this is happening.

Speaker 2 (20:05):
This is the default.

Speaker 1 (20:07):
So I'm not saying that the crowd is all wrong,
but they are emotional beings. We all are, and there's
there's going to be some natural strong reactions to prices
going down and a lot of shrugs when prices go up.

Speaker 3 (20:23):
Yeah, and Brian, you know, since we've been doing this
exercise of going through the data, you know, I've learned
to get past my emotions with the markets, like I
have skin in the game.

Speaker 2 (20:34):
So seeing my.

Speaker 3 (20:34):
Portfolio down really sucks, Like it's annoying and it's hearing
another tariff announcement is annoying as hell. It's like, my god,
but they get this resolved it right. But at the
same time, I go to the data on sentiment and
I'm like, oh, I see what's happening, Like this is
just it's yes, it's volatile, but it's all still cyclical
when you zoom out exactly.

Speaker 1 (20:55):
And it's the fact that you have skin in the
game and other have skin in the game. I mean,
it does make it a little a little tough to
be objective at times, and I know you do a
great job of it, but not everyone's the same way.
It's it can be impossible. When you see a new
news story that causes bitcoin to suddenly drop six percent

(21:16):
in two hours, it just it makes you face palm
and go like when is this stuff going to end?
And as someone who doesn't have skin in the game,
even I get emotionally invested and just go, you know,
why can't markets just play out in more of a
fair manner without all of this artificial noise and manipulation
that's impacting stuff all the time?

Speaker 3 (21:36):
Yeah, for sure, I'm assuming you know, similar to the
whale data, the ETF inflows outflows are probably reflecting similarly, right,
because I think I saw some information like there have
been some outflows.

Speaker 1 (21:51):
Yeah, so there were quite a few outflows around the
tariff announcements from a couple of weeks ago. I'm just
making sure up to date here. Even in the background,
you can see this huge inflow spike. I mean, it's
kind of been a weird inverse correlation as of late.
And when you see these huge inflows, did it refresh

(22:14):
it didn't. Let me make sure it finishes. But generally speaking,
when the big inflow spikes happen, that's when we tend
to top and when the outflow spikes happen, we tend
to bottom out. I'll give it another few seconds and
if it doesn't load.

Speaker 2 (22:29):
That's okay.

Speaker 1 (22:30):
I know based on what data I've seen in the
background that it's kind of chopped back and forth. Not
too many extremes in either direction just yet. But we're
actually kind of hoping, based on how much retail has
gotten into ETFs now, that we start seeing a lot
of outflows, because that's going to be basically a FUD

(22:51):
signal that the crowd is panicking, and when they panic,
we tend to see bottoms in one more time here.
But yeah, we have data up until the twenty fifth
or so, and it's just been kind of back and forth,
and I believe that's how it's played out the last
few days as well.

Speaker 3 (23:11):
Yeah, I've been seeing saying the same thing, like some
days there's inflow, some days there's outflows. It's just a
mixed bag. It's just it's a really weird time, Like
to your point, like there's not extremes in either direction,
but guess it is what it is.

Speaker 1 (23:27):
Yeah, I think you know, anytime tariffs start getting mentioned
and that gets into the news, the ninety nine point
nine percent of people who don't know what you know,
the next thing out of his mouth or she's mouth
is they they kind of sit on their hands and
they say, we're we're kind of powerless in analyzing markets
right now. You know, resistance and support levels don't matter

(23:49):
so much when this is all being so politically driven
right now, so that you know, we tend to see
people kind of.

Speaker 2 (23:58):
Freeze up rightfully, so because they're they're.

Speaker 1 (24:01):
A little more powerless than usual when we're getting news
driven stuff, they just plummets or.

Speaker 3 (24:09):
Sends prices upwards. Yeah, Yeah, for sure. Let's take a
look at some all coins, and I'm assuming many are
not doing too great. Let's start maybe Etheroreum and uh,
you know, we know Bitcoin leads to market and the
all swallows, so I'm curious how things are looking for
Let's say e theorem XRP and Swana.

Speaker 1 (24:28):
Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned Etheroreum. We'll start with the
post I put out yesterday that gained quite a bit
of traction. This is the funding rate aggregated by exchanges
since the beginning of September, so call it two months ago.
There's been a very strong pattern for swing traders out there,

(24:50):
where traders go short, prices go up, traders start longing,
prices go down, and it's been pretty cyclical. Every single
time there's an extreme on either side of the coin,
prices are essentially doing the most predictable thing possible, which
is punish the extremes. So basically the way exchanges work

(25:14):
is they're going to constantly try to liquidate whatever the
majority is doing. Sometimes there's a lot of flat funding rate,
which means there isn't really any majority, But anytime there's
a big red spike here, that means there's more shorts
than lungs, and shorts are actually paying longs in order

(25:34):
to bet against the markets.

Speaker 2 (25:36):
And when they get.

Speaker 1 (25:37):
Liquidated, prices get a little bit of a rocket boost
here and we see a huge jump vice versa. Then
everyone gets emotional. You see these big bright green bars
showing people are longing more than shorting, and lungs are
paying shorts in order to bet in favor of the
price a bitcoin. And then prices start to blumet. People

(25:57):
get emotional. They start to say, all right, to try
to make money on the way down betting against and
then they get liquidated.

Speaker 2 (26:04):
Big long here, big short here.

Speaker 1 (26:06):
And notice every time there's a big extreme price does
the opposite direction, until funny rates kind of neutralize another
tiny little sliver of shorting. Price goes up, they start
to long again, price goes down, and then the latest
here at about thirty seven hundred, was a little more
shorts showing up, and what do you know, as of today,

(26:28):
we're back up in the thirty nine hundred range.

Speaker 2 (26:31):
I believe, so this is.

Speaker 1 (26:34):
One of my favorite patterns right now, just watching the
funny rates. It works a little for Bitcoin and other
coins too, but it seems to be particularly strong with
Ethereum right now, so I've been keeping my eye on
that and then from a sentiment perspective, So sentiment wise
for Ethereum, it's been growing slightly more positive, but nothing extreme.

(26:56):
I think this is pretty much neutral right now. Yeah,
I mean the big extremes you can see here and here.
There were minor down swings right after the big bearishness
happened on the tenth, just along with every other coin
out there for the most part because of that big
tariff downswing. But Ethereum sentiment looks fine. XRP is growing,

(27:19):
which is interesting, so people are starting to think there
might be a bounce coming up for XRP. That decreases
the likelihood of that happening. But I still think there's
been a ton of pain for those XRP traders out there,
and a relief rally does make some sense to me.
It's down thirty and a half percent since mid July,

(27:40):
but nothing extreme here.

Speaker 2 (27:42):
I don't think this is too bad.

Speaker 1 (27:43):
You do see the euphoria spike here when things were
starting to look pretty good in the markets, and those
euphoric traders got punished right afterwards. A Salona, you.

Speaker 3 (27:54):
Know, it's funny as you're going through that, I'm thinking
of I'm glad I'm not using leverage. Look, I'm not
criticizing anybody doing it. If you know what you're doing
and you're using data like this, you can probably be okay.
But it just shows like it's better just to buy
and hold, because man, it's brutal when you look at
the data in the cyclical pattern. Yeah, the holders are

(28:15):
almost always the winners. If you just look at the
people that have been holding for ten years versus the
people trying to swing trade every week, on average, the
holders do a lot better than anyone who's trying to
precisely time every you know, plus three percent or minus
three percent for sure.

Speaker 1 (28:32):
Solana pretty much average, nothing crazy. These were kind of
those bot spikes that we've talked about in previous episodes,
but it looks normal now. Solana has gotten kind of
crushed price wise since mid September. It's down about twenty
five percent, sort of a similar spot to XRP. I
know we've talked about Swie in the past, and if

(28:54):
you don't look at.

Speaker 3 (28:56):
As you're saying, you know, I thought of and one
of the things I've been noodling on. It was so
much euphoria Brian when President Trump got into office, and
you know, everybody say, oh, cryptos, there's gonna be the
goal in.

Speaker 2 (29:06):
Age, right yep. I think we're seeing the after.

Speaker 3 (29:09):
Effects of that, and it's playing out over a long
period of time because it was the euphoria was crazy
and coins were going bananas and mean coins and much
more agreed.

Speaker 1 (29:19):
We saw a couple of different waves with Trump. The
first was when he was first elected in early November,
and we see that huge rally because everyone was immediately thinking, oh,
this means.

Speaker 2 (29:31):
Gensler's out of office, right.

Speaker 1 (29:32):
Gensler was like the big boogeyman in crypto that was
keeping prices down from the traders' perspectives, so they were correct.
Trump got rid of Gensler and we saw that big
by the rumor rally going all the way up until
he was inaugurated on I think it was January nineteenth
or twentieth of this year. And then when he was inaugurated,

(29:55):
everyone's like, all right, let's get the good times rolling, and.

Speaker 2 (29:58):
We see that huge retrace.

Speaker 1 (30:02):
That really occurred all the way until we had like
a march rally, and then Trump put an end to that.
The third Trump news was when he announced the tariffs
with his big poster board, and that was brutal for
a lot of traders, especially if they sold off thinking
that this was going to be like a year long thing.

(30:23):
And around April seventh was like the capitulation date where
retail just said I'm out. This tariff stuff is just
going to destroy crypto and destroy a stock markets.

Speaker 2 (30:36):
And that turned out.

Speaker 1 (30:38):
To be the ideal by day right right when everyone else,
the average retail trader said no more, I've had enough pain. That,
like usual, is exactly when you want to buy. Because
Trump sees that. You know, everyone has their opinion on
whether this was a market manipulation on his end or

(30:59):
whether he was just trying to do his job as president.

Speaker 2 (31:02):
I'm not going to get into it.

Speaker 1 (31:03):
I know you're not going to get into it either,
but we did see that Trump saw how much pain
people were in. Whether because the stock markets dropped or
crypto dropped was the reason he put a pause in tariffs,
or maybe he just genuinely decided, you know, maybe I'm being.

Speaker 2 (31:22):
Too harsh, whatever the case is.

Speaker 1 (31:24):
As soon as he started putting pauses on things, that's
when markets started to rally like crazy, and we see
these repeated all time highs over the past few months. Yes,
Trump has undoubtedly been the biggest buzzword related to crypto
that's caused so much volatility every time he opens his

(31:45):
mouth or he has a new story related to him,
and it's undeniable and it's likely to continue. So if
you're on social trends using santiment, literally just putting in
the word Trump and watching the fireworks ever time he
is mentioned in the news at a high rate, that's
I mean, you see so many one to eighties in

(32:06):
the markets as soon as he's a hot topic, and
that's going to continue guaranteed.

Speaker 3 (32:11):
Yeah, it's pretty wild. What does the MVRV look like
for Ethereum and XRP.

Speaker 1 (32:19):
Ethereum's short term is looking pretty juicy, just almost negative
seven percent, which is semi opportunity zone time. I mean
you can see just yesterday it actually got down to
negative ten and a half percent. Generally, when you see
the thirty day MVRV, the average trading returns get below

(32:41):
negative ten or above ten. Those tend to be the
big polar zones where you can either buy when it's negative,
or sell when it's positive.

Speaker 2 (32:51):
Right now it's negative.

Speaker 1 (32:52):
It got very negative yesterday and we saw a little
bounce ever since. Then the long term, I'm going to
make the price a little more easy to see here. Yeah,
you can see right when the MDRV got below negative
ten percent, perfect time to buy from a long term perspective.
Three sixty five day, we're at about plus eleven percent.

(33:13):
A little concerning because it's above ten percent, but I'm
more interested in the short term because that tends to
be where prices go next, and at least the long
term MVRV is much more down to earth compared to
where it was here, where we were almost hitting five
thousand for the first time ever on October seventh, almost

(33:36):
plus four. Yeah, did get above forty percent that day.
That's a big danger zone when you're seeing the long
term MBRV that high. So we get on that huge
retrace here and then obviously this was a great buy opportunity.

Speaker 2 (33:49):
But yeah, right now, I think it looks.

Speaker 1 (33:51):
Pretty neutral, maybe slightly bullish from a short term perspective,
And what about XRP.

Speaker 2 (33:59):
XRPS.

Speaker 1 (34:00):
Mvr V should look like a little bit of an
opportunity zone. Yeah, so thirty day MVRV not quite as
juicy as ethereum, but it's about negative five percent. Long
term is at about plus three and a half percent,
so pretty much the same boat.

Speaker 3 (34:17):
Interesting, well, Brian, we're gonna have to see how the
remainder of this fourth quarter plays out, and you know,
if we're going to see a rally. But there are
there are some bear signals here.

Speaker 2 (34:31):
Yeah, Like I.

Speaker 1 (34:32):
Said, the biggest one is just the fact that whales
are not accumulating like they normally do. I would wait
for them to be a key signal here that we
are going to resume the rally. I'm just highlighting this
for fun, but this is the smallest traders and look
how much they've been accumulating in contrast to the whales

(34:55):
going down. Generally, you want to see the retail traders
wrapping their coins. Look at how they dropped here, and
then prices just went bananas during that time.

Speaker 2 (35:06):
So two lines to really look at.

Speaker 1 (35:08):
Wait for the whales to start going up again and
wait for retail to start dumping again. As as your
great signals that we're about to get on another Polish rampage.

Speaker 3 (35:19):
Oh for sure, Brian, great stuff and hopefully the next
time we're meeting, you know things are in a better
position and you know we're seeing maybe some new all
time highs. But thank you so much man

Speaker 2 (35:35):
Absolutely Tony, always a pleasure.

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