HAS CRYPTO ENTERED A BEAR MARKET? OCC GIVES BANK GREENLIGHT ON CRYPTO!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
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It's great to be back. I had to take an

(00:26):
international travel starting last week around Thursday. I had to
visit some family members, but I'm officially back, and boy,
while I was away, talk about volatility that we've been
seeing in the market. It's pretty bloody out there, not
just for crypto but even the stock market. And I
want to go through what I'm thinking, what I'm seeing
from the data perspective. I have to leave my emotions

(00:49):
at the door and we're going to walk through what
is happening here. So let's take a look at bitcoin.
We're going to start off with the daily chart. Right now,
Bitcoin just over ninety two thousand dollars. It is below
to two hundred day moving average, and that's the bullmarket
line in the sand. So if we want this bullmarket
to continue, it needs to get back above there. I've
often stated if bitcoin is in a down trend below

(01:11):
that two hundred day moving average, and I mean an
extended down trend, it's over it's bear market, right, So
right now not looking good. We're seeing a lot of
bear signals. A lot of these signals that we're holding
up for weeks and even months, showing that the higher
probability was on the bulk side, are starting to break down.

(01:33):
So I want to share what the data says and
then I'll tell you what my personal strategy is. So
on the weekly bitcoin is very over sold the RS side,
that is, so we could see bounces coming very soon.
What we are looking for though, we need very strong bounces,
and it's not going to be a straight line up,

(01:54):
as I always say, you know, we're going to work
our way out of the hole, but it's something we're
going to have to monitor because it could just be
a simple retrace, right or even another fake out when
people think, oh that's it, we're done. But it's where
we're going to have to closely monitor over weeks and
possibly months. I don't know how long it will take
to get out of this. Now on the weekly chart,

(02:15):
it's even worse here where bears are in full control,
and we are of course below that two hundred day
moving average, but the Bitcoin RSI on the weekly is
headed to the over soul zone. On the monthly, this
is the one that has me concerned, folks, because we've
been talking about the monthly chart, the higher time frame

(02:36):
showing bulls were in full control despite all the volatility,
the tariff crash earlier this year, and much more. Bulls
still maintain control. But right now we are seeing a
very small red candle forming on the MACDI on the monthly.
So this is the one that has me concerned, folks,
because this is the macro and the month of November

(02:58):
is not completed. There could be some catalyst that reverses this,
but my goodness, this right here, it's dancing on the line,
right folks. And you know, one of the things I
had called out, this bull market cycle has not shown
us the retail euphoria into a parabolic move. We have
not seen parabolic moves. We've seen many parabolic moves, but

(03:21):
not the blow off top types right where you have
retail flooding in the app rankings for coinbases jumping Google
trends is surging and the RT assign the monthly is
overbought right and superheated. We're not seeing that at all,
So this time is a bit different. However, you know,

(03:42):
one of the things I've been saying is the tariff
situation from Trump was the major curveball that changed a
lot of what's happening in this market. You add in
the government shutdown with liquidity drying up a bit, and
we find ourselves in the place we're at right now.
Even Trump, you know, with his meme coin and all

(04:02):
these things, and the meme coin mania, it kind of
sucked a lot of liquidity from the other coins, right.
I don't think that could be argued that's a legit thing. Now.
I'm I happy Trump is pro crypto, of course, I'm
not saying I want to be under what biding against
her and Elizabeth one we're doing before. Please, you know

(04:23):
that was brutal. But at the end of the day,
markets are driven by liquidity. So if Trump is pro crypto,
but he's doing things such as tariff and whatever else,
and you know those things are going to affect the markets.
So it's a double edged sword we're dealing with, and
unfortunately it's not something we can control, right, So this
is where we find ourselves. And I'm hoping fingers crossed

(04:46):
that the monthly reverses. Folks. There's some catalyst that pops up.
Whether it be the FED you know, with QI and
much more, I don't know. And here's an example. There
is something that is on the horizon here and that
is the Japanese yen carry trade. We're seeing another situation
here with that. If you recall last summer in late August,

(05:07):
we had a big market crash as a result of that,
and then you know, Janet Yellen and these folks stepped
in with liquidity injections. But here Jeff Park highlighted, Japan's
thirty year bond yield has never been higher in history
than it is now. The global carry machine is on
life support. So here's here's the impact. Let me give

(05:28):
you some details from one user. Japan's thirty year yield
hitting all time high means the last anchor of global
cheap money is breaking. The yen carry trade, a core
liquidity engine for hedge funds, real estate, pe and sovereign flows,
becomes more expensive. When jgbs move like this, global funding

(05:49):
costs jump. Liquidity titans and the entire macro regime shifts
or breaks. So is this a catalyst? Is something going
to break this week or next week of one? And
then the Fed and these folks have to step in
in some certain way, and markets just need to signal
that they're heading into quantitative easing and then they're gonna rip. Right,

(06:10):
that could be the scenario. I think that's a realistic scenario.
But is it one hundred percent guaranteed. Of course not.
So let's see what happens. But right now, things not
looking good. So the Bitcoin fear and Greed index is
in the extreme fear zone. Everybody, for the most part,
believes we are in a bear market. So the herd,

(06:31):
overall the herd things we are in a bear market.
That is one thing that is on the bull side
that if the herd believes that, then there's some sort
of reversal coming soon. Whether that reversal is a retlacement
like I said before, or the continuation of the bull market,
We're gonna have to wait and see. I can't sit
here and tell you guys with one hundred percent confidence

(06:54):
that I believe this bull market will continue. I can't
say that because of the data. Not my emotion, not
because my portfolio is now, but the data that Bitcoin
monthly chart is a big red flag. The other thing
I've been sharing with you guys is the bitcoin whales,
and we've been monitoring this. I shared this in my
recent newsletter where un chain data shows Bitcoin whales while

(07:16):
it's containing ten or more bitcoin. It is on the
decline now, it's not falling off a cliff like we
saw in Q two of twenty twenty four with the
Bitcoin by the rumor sell the news event with the
ETF launch that. I mean, you had huge drops right.
It is in a slow decline. So I want to
keep monitoring this, just like I want to keep monitoring

(07:37):
that Bitcoin monthly chart to see do we reverse or
start to plateau or something like that, because that would
be very positive for the bullish scenario. So this is
not a good sign from the ETF front. You know,
if you look at Black Rocks, I Bit to Bitcoin ETF,
they are selling bitcoin. I mean essentially their clients are

(07:58):
taking profit. But that is also not on a steep decline.
It's not falling off a cliff. It is in a
slow decline. Here they still hold seven hundred and ninety
thousand bitcoin. And when it comes to the stock market,
SMP five hundred also in a decline right now, NASDAC
also in a decline right now, Dow Jones in free fall.
So this is where we're gonna have to keep monitoring things.

(08:20):
The VICS is starting to spike here. This is giving
me deja vus as to what happened in last year
with a Japanese yen carry trade situation. So again, could
something break here, you know, and then it forces these
central banks to step in and do some massive liquidity
push that drives the market into the final phase. And

(08:41):
you know, one of the things I've been saying is
that this bullmarket will extend into twenty twenty six. So
if the bull market continues here, I think that there's
still a high probability of that because of the rate cuts.
And when you think about rates being cut, people are
going to start to move more risk on, right because
they're not going to get the same interest on cash
and so forth in those type of products. They're not

(09:03):
going to get the same level of interest payments on
those type of products. Right, you got raycuts and then
the Fed ending qt December first, and we know what
comes after QE, but I think they usually need a
catalyst to do it. Something has to break. So this
is where I'm not hoping for something to break. I'm
just saying that this is a scenario that could happen

(09:23):
right now. Something that's positive for us for the bulls
is that Jim Kramer has turned full bearish. He says,
what a miserable close Holy cow? Or its talking about
the markets. He said the stock market is miserable. So
that's good for us, right. He's putting out the narrative

(09:45):
to the mainstream there that things are bad, it's miserable. Again,
this is good. If the herd is all feeling, the
top is in, it's over, that's it. Ai. The bubble
has popped, Crypto is done, Bitcoin's dead. How many times
have we seen this? I've been here since twenty sixteen,
so I've seen these different situations. Now I want to

(10:06):
share what Julian Battel, who works with Rau Pale macro
investor ral Pal, his different charts. They believe that based
on different data points like global liquidity, the business cycle,
and the patterns throughout this bull market, they're repeating again
and that the bull market's not over now. Is that

(10:27):
a guarantee? Of course not right. So this is where
I'm in a pattern of like, I want to hold
on and see what's happening here now. Some people have
been posting that they're taking profits and exiting the market.
You know, thankfully, I'm not in a position where I
need the cash right now. Obviously I want to make money,
you guys know that, right, I have plans, but I

(10:48):
don't personally want to liquidate my assets. Some people are
gonna call me an idiot for that, but that's fine.
You know, there are coins that I've held since like
twenty seventeen ish, twenty eighteen ish that are up right
now my portfolio, So I'm okay, Thankfully, I don't need
to liquidate that. But if you do, you have to write.

(11:09):
If you have an emergency, or you're looking to buy
a house, whatever it is, then you want to do
what you gotta do. But personally, I'm not liquidating any
of my portfolio because I still believe there are some
bullish catalysts here and there from a macro perspective, despite
certain things on the charts screaming hey, warning, warning, warning, right,
and I'm sharing that with you I'm not covering it up,

(11:29):
but I'm not sugarcoating it. I'm just sharing my perspective.
You don't have to do what I'm doing, not financial
advice and all that, right, So I'm just pointing you
to the data. I still believe from the macro that
there's still more to the cycle and that is going
to continue into twenty twenty six. They're gonna be people
who say, Tony, you're crazy, You're wrong, the top isn't.

(11:51):
That's fine, everybody make their own decisions. I'm going to
point you to the data. I just gave you the
good and the bad, right, So let's see what happens here, folks.
And you know, if this Japanese yen carry trade situation
happens again again, it feels like deja vou compared to
what happened last year, And we're gonna have to wait

(12:12):
and see. You know, USDT dominance is climbing, it's not collapsing.
The dollar, the dx y, you know that has been
finding strength, and we know there's an inverse correlation. When
that is going up, assets are going down. When that
is going down, assets are going up. So again, there's

(12:34):
a huge patience game here. And a lot of uncertainty,
and you know, this is the part of investing that
can be rough. And I don't have a crystal ball
and I don't have a time machine. So I'm here
with you and I'm looking at different factors. But again,
I think there's more of a bull case here still.
But the bowl case is getting smaller, smaller, right, I'm

(12:56):
gonna be honest with you, it's getting smaller and smaller
now when it comes to bitcoin dominance that is breaking
down a bit, but not significantly where I think we
may see all going bananas. So let's see how that
pans out. But this is a positive sign for the
bulls as well, that all could start picking up some
steam then the liquidity rotates back to bitcoin. This kind

(13:19):
of feels like a major bullmarket reset. And it's not
even that bitcoin's down that much. You know, I've seen
thirty something percent near forty percent in different bull markets,
especially like twenty seventeen. But the macro environment, I think
is what has a lot of people concern. And we're

(13:40):
not seeing retail show up, right, and the signals of
recession and all these things, and then the delays, right,
we've been really hit hard with this tariff situation, I
think everybody, if you're in stocks, you're in real estate, whatever,
that terriff situation has been a major headwind and a

(14:03):
major thorn in our asses. Right. It's just been tough, man.
So let's see, you guys, let's see this is a
new one. And look, every bull market brings its different
flavors and challenges and so forth. So you know, in
twenty twenty one it was a double peak, and then
you know for XRP holders, I know specifically you had

(14:24):
the SEC lawsuit. You know, back in twenty seventeen, you
had that straight up parabolic run up and then a
blow off top and massive retail coming in. There was
also a double peak in twenty thirteen twenty fourteen, right,
and between those peaks it was pretty extended. So I
think bitcoins still it's still young, so there's going to

(14:46):
be a lot of things that are gonna change over time.
I do believe this is all still driven by liquidity.
So that's why I'm macro bullish. You know, as long
as central banks keep printing, I'm going to continue to
hold at sets. And you know, one of the things
I said is the FED continues to cut rates, you're
going to see more capital flow out of those interest

(15:06):
bearing products because you're not going to get the same
level of returns and it's going to go into assets
for greater return. So, folks, that's the state of the
Union of where I'm seeing things, and I'm very much
in a holding pattern, watching this closely to see what
is that major catalyst and if is it from the Fed?
I don't know. Is it the market simply bounces off

(15:30):
of you know, it's the market's so one sided right now.
Everybody believes we're in a bear market and it's over
and we're going to continue to see the lows that
you know, it has to reverse because we've seen even
in twenty twenty two, there were there were retraces, right,
there were moves to the upside. Because the market moves
in cyclical patterns. Right when there's extreme fear, expect and

(15:52):
move to the opposite. When it's extreme bullishness and greed,
expect and move to the opposite. So this is where
we're at, folks. I know this is tough. I know
it's hard to hear, and there's a lot of uncertainty,
and I know we as human beings, we want certainty,
want the concrete statements, but it is pretty rough out there,
and it's not just crypto, it's for stocks as well. Now,

(16:15):
this is pretty crazy. I didn't expect this from Charles Hoskinson,
the founder of Cardono. Let me play a clip of
what he had to say.

Speaker 2 (16:22):
Everybody entered, myself included twenty twenty five thinking that the
Trump administration was going to be this magic net positive
for the ecosystem because he's literally the US government has
become a back boulder.

Speaker 1 (16:35):
You know.

Speaker 2 (16:35):
It's like that's the biggest economy in the world, and
it's gone from trying to kill crypto to embracing crypto.

Speaker 1 (16:41):
So Charles is essentially saying, you know, Trump's exuberance and
all I think he doesn't want to say mean coin
and all these things, and plus the tyror stuff. He
doesn't want to, you know, give details, but he think
he put it in a very politically friendly way that
you know, around Trump and in the administration. While initially

(17:02):
very good for crypto, some of the activities have created headwinds.
And that's what I was saying. The terraff situation man,
not even so much the meme coin, which I'm not
a fan of but the TERRORFF situation has been rough
for markets and especially cryptos. So I don't know if
you guys agree with Charles, but you can leave your

(17:23):
comments below let me know what you think. Now, folks,
this episode is brought to you by Propy. Propy is
leading the charge with putting real estate on chain. Folks.
We know they're going to tokenize all the asset classes gold, stocks, equities,
and much more. And of course the world's largest asset class,
which is real estate, will be on the blockchain. The

(17:43):
process of buying and selling a home will all be
blockchain powered, and Property allows you to do that. Their
platform allows you to sell real estate with crypto. So
if you want to sell your house a bitcoin or
ether theoremy, you can certainly do that. And they've been
putting deeds and titles and all these things on chain.
They have their own blockchain, of course, and billionaire investor

(18:05):
Tim Draper is an investor in this project. He's a
very bullish on it. And they use coinbas for the
crypto escro service. And I've been a Propy token holder
since twenty eighteen. I discovered this project and I realize,
wait a minute, they are going to disrupt this industry
in this market with blockchain. I'm going to make sure
I take a steak here for the long term because

(18:27):
I think all of this is going to be running
on the blockchain. So Propy doing amazing things ahead of
the curve, and folks, they are licensed. They've done five
billion plus in deals and they've been around since twenty seventeen.
So if you'd like to learn more about Propy, go
to propy dot com. Link will be in the description.
Now we have an update here from Senator Tim Scott

(18:49):
about the market structure bill, and you know, along the
lines of what I've been telling you guys that this
bull market you could certainly extend into Q one twenty
twenty six, Senator Tim Scott on the banking side of
the market structure revealed a timeline today. He said markups
and votes in both the Banking and Agriculture committees next
month December, which legislation expected on the Senate floor early

(19:12):
next year. So one of the things I've been highlighting
is that this market structure bill is a major landmark moment,
and I don't believe the market makers would let that pass.
I don't think that that just doesn't line up, you know,
from the things I've known from working at a crypto
exchange and being in this market. Look, I could be wrong,

(19:33):
but I think many of you logically could see that
this could be a major catalyst to bring in retail FOMO.
In addition to Trump saying I'm going to give you
two thousand dollars, give people two thousand dollars, dividend checks
and all that stuff, the FED cutting rates, going to QWY,
and just these different factors coupled together could be very
good for the markets. But again we have to wait

(19:56):
and see. Some very big news that came today from
the OCC. They say banks can hold crypto to pay
blockchain network fees. So this is huge man. Here's the
official statement from the OCC. OCC confirms bank authority to
hold certain crypto assets as principal for purposes of paying

(20:17):
crypto asset network fees. So huge green light here, which
will allow all the major banks in the United States
to participate. We already see many of them are launching
crypto custody, stable coins, crypto trading right. They're tokenizing as well.
JP Morgan just the other day they tokenize their JPMD

(20:38):
deposit token on Base, which is Coinbase's ethereum layer two.
So the on and off rams being set up here
with participants growing beyond just certain Wall Street firms, but
to the major banks. Now, so this is incredibly bullish news. Now,
this is pretty big. New Hampshire launches the first bitcoin
back municipal bond, a one hundred million dollars big coin

(21:00):
conduit bond could pave the way for digital assets to
enter the one hundred and forty trillion dollar global debt market.
Dennis Porter, who has been working with a lot of
these states, said New Hampshire was the first to pass
this strategic bitcoin reserve into law. Now they are the
first to create a bit bond. Wow, this is incredible
adoption news.

Speaker 2 (21:19):
Right.

Speaker 1 (21:20):
And as we've seen, even with the strategic Bitcoin reserve,
one state makes the move gloat, then game theory plays
out the others are going to follow suits. So this
is pretty big and final news. Adam, we got some
bullish news an ono I do hold onto my portfolio.
So Ondo receives EU approval to offer tokenized stocks and

(21:40):
ETFs across Europe. This approval expands the reach of Ondo's
token i sed stalks and ETFs to over five hundred
million investors across the EU and EEA. The base perspectives
governing the issues of token I, sed stocks and ETFs
was approved by the Liechtenstein Financial Market Authority. It recognize
your regulator with passporting rights across the EU and EEA.

(22:05):
So big news here for Ondo. Like we were talking
about earlier with Propy and tokenizing real estate, they're tokenizing stocks.
It's going to open up these products to the world
because into global markets, because they're going to be able
to trade twenty four to seven, fractionalize, subtle instantly. You
guys know all the benefits and principles of the blockchain.
So huge news for Onto here. Once again. I am

(22:27):
a token holder and I am bullish on this project.
I recently actually interviewed the founder, Nathan Allman at chain
Link smart Con, so that interview should be published sometime
this week, and we talked a lot about their plans
and so forth. So, folks, that's the news. Let me
know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below,
hit the thumbs up button. It is good to be back,

(22:49):
and I'll be bringing you guys, of course, all the
big updates as we continue to navigate the volatility. I
know it's tough, I know it's stuff, but hanging there right,
This is where page and emotional control is important in investing,
because we don't want to get emotional. We don't want
to get too bearsh we don't want to get too bullish.
We want to navigate them waters here looking at the

(23:12):
data as our north star. Right. So you know, obviously,
like I said earlier, if you feel like taking profits
and you know there's something you need to do to
use the money to whatever you need to do right
for your life, you got to do what you got
to do. I'm personally not selling right now. I still
believe there's a bullish catalyst, and I'm not in a
position where you know, I absolutely need the money, so

(23:35):
I'm you know, I have to panic sell or something
like that. I'm not in that situation. So I do
want the prices to go higher, as I'm sure many
of you do. So I'm hoping we see a reversal
in that this is just another local top and we
continue to the true blow off top, which I think

(23:56):
would most likely happen late Q one. But let's see
how it plays out. Let me know what you think
leave your thoughts and comments below. Folks, be sure to
support the podcast by subscribing to my free email newsletter
on substack. It is one hundred percent free. Link will
be in a description. Check out my book on Amazon,
it's available in paperback, in digital, and my course at

(24:18):
mycryptocurse dot com. This is a comprehensive course that teaches
you everything you need to know about crypto. It features videos,
text write ups, downloadable materials and much more with expert
commentary from the people I've interviewed. So it's all curated
and set up there. You can review the curriculum and
much more. You get lifetime access and once again, visit

(24:39):
Mycrypto course dot com to learn more. Folks, thank you
for tuning in. I appreciate you all and I'll talk
to you all later. M

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