November 12, 2025 • 39 mins
Join Kelly, Marco and Gianni every Wednesday for Bet On It as we break down the Week 12 college football slate from a variety of betting angles.
Intro 00:00
Notre Dame vs Pitt 00:55
Oklahoma vs Alabama 5:54
Texas vs Georgia 8:45
Steam Report 10:30
Barking Dogs 13:15
Marco Barko 13:28
Gianni the Greek’s Barking Dog 17:38
KIV Barking Dog 22:05
Marco’s Sandwich Game of the Week 23:47
Best Bets 27:00
VR 27:17
Marco 32:42
KIV 37:20
Recap 38:47
Intro 00:00
Notre Dame vs Pitt 00:55
Oklahoma vs Alabama 5:54
Texas vs Georgia 8:45
Steam Report 10:30
Barking Dogs 13:15
Marco Barko 13:28
Gianni the Greek’s Barking Dog 17:38
KIV Barking Dog 22:05
Marco’s Sandwich Game of the Week 23:47
Best Bets 27:00
VR 27:17
Marco 32:42
KIV 37:20
Recap 38:47
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's hard to believe that college football Week twelve is here.
We've got barking dogs off another epic week. We've got
those TV games, talking about those top twenty five matchups.
We're gonna get the Steam report from VR. We're gonna
check in with Marco to see if Ben Deli is
still red hot.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
And courts.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
We've got best bets up next on bet on It.
Kelly Stewart here with Yanni the Greek in the middle,
(00:38):
Marco DiAngelo there in the third chair. We're gonna go
over these top twenty five games, starting with number nine
Notre Dame minus twelve and a half taking on number
twenty three Pittsburgh Noon Eastern total fifty five and a half. Here. VR,
this's an interesting one because you did a video on
(00:59):
the Wait to Talk social channels talking about power ratings,
and clearly these two, even though they're not far away
in the ap pole coaches Pull and so forth, are
light years away from a power ratings perspective.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Well said Kelly, and coming off of Mice three and
oh last week in college football for bet on It,
right now, I'm twenty six and seven on the show,
seventy nine percent. I got more gold for you this week.
But just going to make a disclaimer. Been selective with
those premium cards on Saturday in college football, as you
(01:32):
see no reason to fire five percents, just a bunch
of four percents and spreading out our risk, and that's
got me at number one in profit. With that said,
I'm coming off of losing week in college football. Tell
you when I win, tell you when I lose. Twelve
weeks so far, we've won ten of those, and I
really feel strongly about this week's card. But some of
these lines have moved. And here's what I'm talking about.
(01:53):
I bet Notre Dame already. I sent it out to
my subscribers at minus ten and the only reason this
wasn't a five percent play is because this is exactly
what I thought was gonna happen. Wise, guys are gonna
see the exact same things that I'm seeing, and they
are going to jump on the Notre Dame side. Why
because these are two very different seven and two teams.
(02:14):
And that's why I love college sports, because of those
rankings that allow us to take advantage of the narratives.
You don't have that in pro sports. Same thing with
college basketball. And yes I am using those power ratings
in college basketball, and for the first time I have
my guy making them in NBA as well. Not going
(02:37):
to use them to bet, but just gonna monitor this
first year, but college basketball. Same dude that did college
football is doing college basketball as well. So we could
go over those maybe in wage to talk today. Now
getting back to Notre Dame in Pittsburgh, two seven two teams,
but very different seven and two teams. And here's what
I mean. Notre Dame top five power rating in my
(02:57):
power ratings right now. Luckily the rankings have caught up
and at least have Notre Dame in their top ten.
But here's what you're looking at with Notre Dame. They
have a top twenty five strength of schedule, so they've
played one of the toughest strength of schedules so far,
and they've managed to have the fifth most efficient offense
and more importantly, the third most efficient defense, so they're
(03:19):
top five in the two most important categories. When I
look at the Pittsburgh side, they've had.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
The sixty ninth sixty ninth.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Toughest schedule, okay, and they've managed to be the fifty
eighth fifty eighth most efficient defense now going up against
the top five offense, Are you kidding me? Their offense
looks pretty good. They cracked the top twenty in efficiency Pittsburgh,
but again that's against the sixty ninth toughest strength of schedule.
They're now facing the top three defense. That's a legitimate
(03:51):
top three that's done it against the top twenty five schedule.
That's what they're running into with Notre Dame. And that's
why this totals drop in Pittsburgh will not score many
points on Saturday. Rest the short Notre Dame in a
one sided blowout. I like Notre Dame. I like the
under as well. Four percent on Notre Dame at minus ten.
We bought the half point down. I think this one's
(04:12):
good up until about minus thirteen. Again, value gets extracted
with every point that moves. I'm not going to bet
the same at minus twelve twelve and a half that
I did at minus ten. But I still think Notre
Dame gets it done on Saturday. And like I said,
I think they keep the game under as well, because
only one side is going to do to score and
give me Dame minus the points.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Very interesting, Marco, I knew you had a point you
wanted to interject with really quick before we got to
your TV game.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
Yeah, he's so back up what you're thinking with Notre Dame.
In the press conference this week, everybody's making a big
deal about game day being here in Pittsburgh. You know,
that's a rarity and everything. And they ask coach Narduci,
how big is this game for the pitt Panthers this season?
And I didn't like his ants are at all. And
(05:01):
what he said was, this is a non conference game.
Our focus is ACC We're looking at getting to the
ACC championship game and that's our You know, it's almost
like he's already setting up an excuse for losing to
Notre Dame.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Dude, Notre Dame watched them beat Florida State as ten
point dogs. They're getting Notre Dame full tension because Pittsburgh's
coming in on five straight wins, five straight covers. That's
the problem for Pittsburgh. If this was a bad Pittsburgh team,
then Notre Dame may be in trouble. But they got
their full attention. This is gonna get ugly for Pittsburgh.
He's already making excuses because he's seen the game field.
(05:41):
He knows how it's going to turn out for his team.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
And we probably know he's good for at least one
kicking is for losers. Moment, Marco, we're gonna get to
a SEC matchup here. Three thirty Eastern, Number eleven Oklahoma
is a six and a half point underdog. Number four
Alabama forty six and a half. Here is the total.
I love the underdogs Oklahoma on my long list. Do
(06:04):
you agree with me here?
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Well, Kelly, Alabama got me the money last week. It
was a little closer than I thought it was gonna be,
but they ended up getting the money in the end,
and I'm gonna come right back to them, and let's
give LSU credit. We really didn't know how they were
going to respond, you know, with the firing of Brian Kelly.
You know, we know that most teams do have that spark,
but because it was such a big program and they
(06:27):
had such high expectations, I wasn't sure that LSU would
show up last week, but they did. Alabama was able
to win the game. Did they take LSU for granted,
you know, a big name like that, you would say no.
But given the season LSU's had in this game on deck.
Maybe they did have one eye to Oklahoma, because if
(06:48):
you look at the schedule after this one, it's clear
sailing for Alabama and to get to the SEC championship game,
get to the national playoffs, and maybe get back to
the championship game. Alabama has struggled to run the football
the last two games, seventy two and fifty six yards
(07:09):
the last two. That's a little bit of a concern,
but let's look at what they do well in their
passing game has averaged just under three hundred yards per game.
Oklahoma's had trouble with some good passing teams. When they
faced Old Miss in Tennessee, they gave up three hundred
and fifteen yards passing to Old Miss and three ninety
three to Tennessee. So Alabama should be able to move
(07:32):
the football against this Oklahoma defense. And whenever you flip
the script and Alabama is on defense and Oklahoma's trying
to score, they're not facing Old Miss in Tennessee defenses.
This week. They're facing the legit defense. Alabama has only
allowed one team all year to top twenty four points
and that was Week one in that and I'm still
(07:53):
trying to figure out how they lost to Florida State
in that opening week. Oklahoma will struggle on defense to
stop Alabama. I'm gonna go ahead. I'm laying it with
the Crimson tide. I've got Alabama winning thirty to seventeen.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
Yeah, and I kind of suspected that. I was joking
with Aaron Epstein this morning at breakfast, and I said,
oh god, I hate being head to head with Marco
this year. For whatever reason, I got one win, luckily
by the hook with Northwestern versus you and Nebraska. Otherwise
we it has been all insided. It has been all
Marco Tiangelo when we disagree. Another SEC matchup for you
(08:34):
guys here on Saturday evening seven, excuse me, seven thirty
pm Eastern. Number ten. Texas is a six and a
half point underdog at number five Georgia forty eight and
a half. And look, just mentioned to Marco. You know
I love these underdogs, So of course here I am going,
how can I make a case for Texas? And you'd
think Texas is coming off a bye last year? Remember
(08:57):
Georgia winning to Austin won thirty to fifteen. But the
final score wasn't as bad as the beating that that
actually was. And then of course Texas had opportunities to
beat Georgia and the SEC Championship game couldn't get it done.
Both of those games stayed under the total. And that's
kind of where I'm looking in this one because I
(09:17):
do not trust arch Manning, I do not trust Texas,
and I do not trust Steve Sarkisian. Steve Sarkisian versus
top ten teams in his career five and eighteen two
an eight in Texas. But you know who I do trust? Oh,
that's right, I trust the Texas Longhorns defense. I think Georgia,
(09:37):
playing their level of ball against this team is going
to go down to the wire. But I think this
is going to be a close, low scoring game. Let's
call it Georgia twenty four, Texas twenty. Texas may get
the cover for you, guys. I just do not trust
sark to be able to win this football game. We've
(09:58):
got a Steam report coming out up here with VR,
and if you guys are new here, we do something
every single Sunday at wager Talk called the Steam Room
where VR comes in after wager Talk's last hall with
Ariel Epstein and he goes over everything headed in to
the NFL season. And now we don't do that on Saturday,
but we give you guys a little preview of it
here on Wednesdays on.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Bet on It indeed, and a little preview each day
on wager Talk today when I go in the morning
and share that college Basketball Steam NBA Steam currently top
three in profit, number one coming for you in college
basketball power rate. He's getting stronger and stronger each and
every day. Now here's what I did with college football,
just like the last two weeks. Narrowed down those ten
(10:41):
moves that are the most legit this early on where
I haven't seen resistance only in one game. I'm going
to share it because it's a high profile game and
we had followed through from any look ahead action. So
let's dive right in. All of it is on Saturday
three twenty one, Air Force plus the eight three point
thirty three Marshall plus five minus five and a half
(11:04):
forgive me all the way up to the key number
of minus seven. So they laid the key seven on
Marshall three thirty nine Virginia plus six and a half
plus six. Seems they're getting out ahead of the public
because the publics on Virginia as well.
Speaker 1 (11:20):
Three forty two.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Florida State laid the eleven and a half, which was
kind of like a look ahead, laid the thirteen, laid
thirteen and a half as well on Florida State. Notre
Dame talked about them a little earlier from minus ten
opener which we got down on that's what they pay
me for to minus eleven that got hit yesterday three
fifty seven Oklahoma plus the touchdown three fifty sixty three
(11:45):
forgive me, Texas State not a sexy team, but got
hit by multiple groups at six and a half, six
and then five and a half again Arkansas LSU. Bringing
this one up because we did see two sided action.
Mine plus six and a half plus six plus five
and a half plus five got the four and a half,
(12:06):
and that's when you saw the LSU money come in.
I thought it would happen at minus four. Didn't even
wait for that. They came in right away at minus
four and a half and laid the LSU side. So
obviously a difference of opinion there UH three eighty seven,
Michigan minus ten and eleven, and finally no surprise three
to ninety three TCU plus six five and a half
(12:29):
and five versus the Phony BYU team, which will be
exposed eventually as shouldn't be ranked.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Sooo just shouldn't even be ranked. Now, Yeah, you upt
some people in the comment section there. If you guys
have a comment for it, mean.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Unless you're going, you know, thirty teams out, you know
they're not top twenty, the top thirty, top thirty.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Oh boy, oh boy. Well, if you guys disagree with
the r or if you agree with them dropping in
the comment section interview like this next segment, which you
should because we've been cashing it at such a great
rate of underdogs. Let us know what you think of
this week's dogs. Send us a little note and we'll
be sure to get back to you. Marco DiAngelo, you
gotta go first. Last week's barking Dog cashed for you,
(13:16):
and I should have tailed you and I didn't, and
I regretted it immediately.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
All Right, till well, this week we're going to game
that VR just talked about Arkansas and LSU. I'm on
the Arkansas side. Arkansas they're two and seven. I'm gonna
tell you this right now, and this is gonna sound stupid,
but they're the best two and seventeen in the country.
They've lost seven in a row. Five of those seven
losses were by seven points or less. Turnovers have killed
(13:44):
this team all season long. In those seven losses, they
were on the wrong side of a thirteen to four
turnover margin, and yet they still manage to have five
one score losses. When your minus you know, more than
two turnovers in a game, you're supposed to lose those
games and lose them by a margin they're not. That
(14:05):
tells you this team is much better than their record is.
No LSU. They've lost three in a row. But here's
the part why I'm fading them is they did give
that good effort against Alabama. So they did rise to
the occasion try to get it done the first game
without Brian Kelly.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
But what was it?
Speaker 3 (14:25):
They ended up losing the game because of the same reason.
It probably got Brian Kelly fire. They've got no offense.
They scored nine points last week against Alabama. I cannot
lay points with this team. And to me, they showed
up last week. How do they come with anything this week?
Please don't tell me about pride. Please don't tell me
(14:48):
that they've got five wins and they're trying to get
BAWL eligible. Do you really think these kids in today's
new age of college football and nil money really are
excited about going to a bowl game that's gonna be
a shit bowl that half of them will probably opt
out of even if they did make it to the
bowl game. Why because they're gonna be looking at where
(15:10):
they're going next year to get paid with the nil
I don't see this team showing up here. This is
a rivalry game. Remember when LSU and Arkansas back in
the day was every Thanksgiving it was that Friday or
Saturday on the docket, and this was a big rivalry game. Well,
LSU has better, bigger rivalries, but for Arkansas this is
(15:33):
still huge. I look for them to come to play
in this one. They'll control the game with the running game.
This is a team that's run for one hundred and
seventy five yards or more in seven of nine games
this year, and in three of the last four they've
run the ball for two hundred and thirty nine yards
or more. If you can control the line of scrimmage,
(15:53):
you're gonna win the football game. I've got Arkansas winning
this one. Let's take Arkansas, which could be finally in
a shootout for LSU because the Arkansas defense least a
little bit to be desired. I've got Arkansas winning thirty
one to twenty seven.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
May I interject Kelly really quickly? Arkansas, Marco, Arkansas two
and seven Arkansas, based on my power ratings, would be
a one point favorite on a neutral field against seven
and two Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
Yes, they have a top ten strength of schedule, their
top fifteen most efficient offense in all college football with
a top ten strength of schedule, and the strength that
schedule gets even harder the last few games for this team.
They're legit at two and seven, as legiti as a
two and seven can get.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
You're right, Marco, I also don't know how many LSU
kids are going to be leaving because I just got
this text about seven seconds ago. Do you want to
take a guess who the front runner is currently on
FanDuel to be the next head coach of the LSU Tigers?
Who Nick Saban right now? One to bring on the
(17:06):
baton rouge bro. That would be absolutely bananas. Uh, maybe
that might keep those kids hanging around just a little
bit longer. We are a dog that is on my
long list, so I'm happy to see it on your
budd dog list. You had wake Forest last week. I
said I liked wake Forest and they liketed to go
(17:27):
with Miszoo. But that's beside the point. Maybe I should
be listening to you guys for my three team underd
on parlay. But I do like Sparti this week. Can
you tell everybody why you do as well?
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Yeah, because this is the only dog I have so
far this week, but no any more serious.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
It is, but I don't.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Here's here I keep it real. I didn't place a
great bet because I betted at plus seven. I thought
they would get steam and the seventh would be gone.
I could get seven and a half today, so obviously
I didn't get the best of it, and that worries me.
When my sharpest shop pass seven and a half, I
would have rather seen six and a half this morning.
(18:07):
With that said, I'm locked in my bets place. And
here's why I like it. Number one. I've been high
on Penn State, saying they are undervalued because of their record,
but you know they were a top thirty, top twenty,
top ten at one point Power rated team when they
weren't even in the rankings anywhere, and again that was
(18:29):
based on their record, and they've haven't been able to
get w's. But they've covered two of their last three games.
And here's the problem for Penn State right now. They've
just gone through a murderers row in back to back weeks.
They had to travel to Ohio State and face the
best team in the country, physical game, got beat up,
(18:52):
lost by twenty four points. Following week play a legit,
legit Indiana at home, top three in my power ratings
right there to win that game as two touchdown dogs,
don't get the WU lose that game heartbreaking. Now you
got to travel to Michigan State, who's been outperforming the
(19:14):
betting market, even though they're not winning games because they're
not losing by margin, which tells me this is a
team that's continuously given me effort week in and week out.
They're just undermined, that's the bottom line. But they're outperforming
the betting market, and in most cases you would think
that the betting market would catch up. But this is
(19:35):
the problem is who they're playing. It's that Penn State's side.
And the reason Penn State's so beat up right now
is because they've played the thirteenth toughest schedule in all
of college football. They've managed to be top fifteen offense
and defense with that kind of schedule, but it's not
producing w's. And when that starts to happen over and
(19:55):
over and over again, it just gets harder to get
yourself up and play games like this. I think Michigan
State at home is able to keep this close a
lot closer than that line reflects another team that's, you know,
decent strength of schedule, top thirty offense. Defense. Again, nothing
(20:18):
a lot to brag about Michigan State. So I'm not
going to sit here and talk about them like they're
world beaters. But I just think this is a bad
spot for Penn State. It's more of a fade on
Penn State than a bet on Michigan State. Like I said,
I'm locked in at plus seven. Don't like seven and
a half's out there. But if you agree with me,
you're gonna get a better number. If not, we'll see
(20:41):
what happens Saturday. But Michigan State's my dog of a week.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Yeah, I v are And look, I think a lot
of times some of these underdogs that we have and
the reason why we think they're barking. Isn't necessarily a
play on the team, it's a play against another, right.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Yeah, yeah, that's kind of my whole theory. I one,
it's a perfect storm when it's like that's when you
feel really strong, when you like the side and you
want to fade that other team, Like those are the
perfect storms. But yeah, sometimes it's a play on or against.
And I agree this is definitely a play because again,
there's not a lot to like with Michigan State. Let's
be real, other than they're they're they're they're keeping it close,
(21:18):
and they're showing effort over the last couple of weeks.
And this is a home game, you know, and they
played they have a strong home field advantage based on
their record. They haven't won a single road game, you know.
Anything they've done they've done at home, where Penn State
has played horrible on the road.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
So I like the splits.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
There's that to lean on Michigan State, but otherwise there's not.
And I'm not going to waste the viewers' time sitting
here talking up Michigan State like they're great. No, it's
a fate of Penn State.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
What do you say last week that Wake Force was
shit and guess what they got it done for you?
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Yea, yet they did.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
You're stepping in it again this week with another shitty team.
Let's see if they can't get it done.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
For you here.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Top seventy in my Power ratings.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Though by the comment section is gonna have a lot
of fun today. Vre mentioned a perfect storm here. I'm
hoping I have a perfect storm with the Arizona Wilds
catch catching six and a half. I understand they had
to come from behind to beat the University of Kansas
last week, but sometimes those types of wins do push
(22:19):
teams into the following week. Now Arizona, who missed a
bowl game last year, is Bowl eligible. They have the
number one passing efficiency defense in the country, and that's
why I'm looking to back them here. Yes, Cincinnati's off
a bye, but prior to that buy they lost to Utah.
(22:40):
I know BYU just got absolutely eviscerted by VR.
Speaker 3 (22:44):
But.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
BYU still looking to make a splash in the Big twelve,
and I think Cincinnati may be overlooking Arizona this week.
Cincinnati gives up thirty one yards per game, more than average.
Right They're number one hundred and three in the country there,
and so keep in mind that Arizona and Fafita may
(23:08):
be able to take advantage of that. Arizona, on the
flip side, holds opponents to sixty three yards below their average.
That is a top thirty team in FBS. I think
that Cincinnati at home is an advantage, right. We know
Arizona cold weather Eastern time zone does not necessarily bode
well for this West Coast team, but I think Arizona
(23:29):
has them in a dog fight late. I know it's
not a technical sandwich for Marco, but it's kind of
one of those situations that had me thinking, hmm, speaking
of sandwiches, the Deli just keeps on rocking, Marco. I'm
so proud of this segment because it's such a fun segment.
In addition to that, it's just been absolutely red hot
(23:51):
all season long.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
Yeah, yeah, Kelly, We've been nailing them here on the show,
but where the real magic has been happening is in
the bonus show, Marco's Deli that comes out on Thursday.
We've had seven winning weeks, two losing weeks, one break
even week, and that has resulted after last week's five
and oh sweep on the show to thirty two and
(24:13):
seventeen for the season if you're tuning in to the
Bonus Show. So very happy with that. And I also
want to thank everybody both here and on Marco's Deli
with all the birthday wishes last week. I appreciate all
you guys with that. So let's just keep the deli going.
And sometimes, as I said, you might not like the
(24:35):
sandwich and what it looks like smells like, but it
always ends up tasting good. And this week we're going
to take a look at UTEP plus four and a
half playing Missouri State. Let's just start with this line,
because something smells. I don't know if it's the stinky
cheese I have on the sandwich, but you've got a
six and three Missouri State team playing at home only
(24:59):
lay four and a half points to UTEP who is
two and seven. Right there should set off some alarms
for you. And when we look at this one, why
is this a sandwich game? Well, Missouri State came into
and I'll admit it on the show. I was wrong
with Liberty last week. Liberty was playing better at the time,
(25:20):
only had one loss in the conference. Missouri State went
in there beat Liberty at Liberty last week to get
them in contention with this conference Conference USA. And they've
got a huge game next week because they played the
first place team next week in Kennesas State. That puts
us in a classic sandwich. You had Liberty last week,
(25:43):
who was supposed to be the class of this conference
coming into the season, and the team that actually is
the class of the conference next week. Then you throw
in the fact that that win last week, what did
that make Missouri State's record? It made it six and
three the old men, Now we're Bowl eligible. Yeah, I
just think you're a little bit too fat and sassy
(26:05):
after last week. What you've got coming up next week
and you're playing a two and seventeam, You're gonna look
past this Texasel passo team. Five of Missouri State's six
wins have been by seven points or less. Missouri State
six and three, but they've been held to twenty four
or fewer points in seven of their nine games this year.
(26:27):
That's not exactly what you want a team that doesn't
break twenty four when they're laying points. I expect another
nail bitter here, and I'm gonna go with UTEP to
pull the Upset as my sandwich game of the week.
We're gonna go with Texas Eel Passo twenty three to twenty.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
You can catch Marco's Extended Deli Show. It's a standalone
version here on the Wager talk to YouTube channel, or
we add it into the Mega Show with NFL College
as well as Teddy Stockwatch and Ralph's TNA. Let's get
into those best bets because we're up against the clock here, VR.
I'm gonna let you go first, per usual, but before
(27:08):
you give everybody your best bet for college football Week twelve,
please let everybody know what you got going on over
at wager dot com.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Oh yeah, I have. First off, I'm gonna mention the
UFC pay per view card is up because I have
a five percent in there that I love. This card
already fired five bets. I've been working on that card
for like two weeks. It's a get to the window
and bet cash Saturday for me. College football won ten
of twelve weeks coming off of losing week.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
You know what that means.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
We're gonna progress towards the mean. If I find a
five percent, we will fire it. Otherwise those fours will
be a package up with all fours. You know how
they've gone six and one the week before. They just
continue to produce money. NFL same thing, package up four
percent best bets. I like the primetime games as well.
(27:58):
Also weekday coming off of Weep Yesterday in college football,
those weekday primetime games have been money in college football
and NFL. I think I'm like thirteen and two now
Monday Night Football, Sunday Night Football last like eight weeks,
so red hot, jump on board. College basketball's here with
the NBA. I got the college basketball power ratings are
(28:20):
in full effect, getting tighter and tighter. So alter eight
climb the ladder. Now up to the number three in
college basketball will continue to climb, So jump on board.
Let's close out the year strong and yeah, do some
damage on Saturday and Sunday and got a couple, Like
I said, weekday games as well. Now let's get into
best bets. You're gonna say, so, you're serious, You're coming
(28:42):
square with us. Listen, I'm gonna give you guys premium
because my subscribers are cool with it because they get
enough volume, and I'm gonna share with I've bet and
this is one of the bets I've already placed, and
that's oh hot, oh State. Why because it's a good spot,
the better team that finally under against the betting market,
which arguably played a terrible game. But if you leave
(29:04):
the box score, here's what they did. They had sixteen
more first downs than Perdue. They held the ball for
thirty one twenty one more minutes than Perdue forty minutes
to nineteen. They completely dominated. They ran on them for
one hundred and seventy yards, they threw on them for
three hundred three yards, They held them the ninety four
yards passing. They just didn't put up a lot of
(29:25):
points and they turned the ball over. That's the bottom line.
They were comfortably ahead twenty four to three at halftime.
That's what happened. Otherwise, they've been unblemish, is what Ohowa
State's been because not only have they been winning football games,
but they've been outperforming the betting market as the number
one team in the country. You know now how hard
(29:46):
that is to do. Go back and look at those
years that Alabama was so dominant, and you're going to
see a team that was twelve and zero, six and
six ATS, five and seven ATS, maybe one year seven
and five ATS but they did a really good job
of making sure you're not gonna make money betting the
number one teams because they know that's who's gonna get
(30:08):
the money every single week. And yet they went out
there and they covered every single game until last week.
That just tells you how good this Ohio State team is.
I've had them number one in my power ratings. I said,
there's no team better than them. They're at least or
more than a field goal better than the next best team.
(30:31):
And the problem that UCLA is gonna have is they're
now facing a defense that's about five x better than
what they faced in Indiana, and against Indiana they only
were able to manage seven points. Ohio State has absolutely
no one on deck but Rutgers. This is gonna be
a celebration at home where they run up the score
(30:52):
on a UCLA team because it's UCLA and they can.
And that's exactly what's gonna happen. When I look at UCLA,
they barely crack my top seventy power rating wise, They've
had a tough schedule top twenty strength of schedule, but
that put them at the seventy fifth most deficient offense
(31:12):
fifty plus most deficient defense and you're going up against
top three in both. Yeah, Ohio State rolls on Saturday.
Thirties not enough, thirty two is not enough, thirty three
is not enough. Like the bottom line is, once you
get up over those minus twenties, the variance is so high.
The one point line movement one and a half two
(31:33):
point line movement doesn't scare me at all. Lay the
points with Penn State. They blow out UCLA by forty plus.
All right, I just gotta say it on this show.
What is Georgia Tech? Please tell me what is Georgia
Tech doing? Still in the rankings at number sixteen? Right now,
right now, I'll tell you Marco's Arkansas Marcos two and seven,
(31:56):
Arkansas Florida at three and six, and Florida stayed at
four and five. Would all be favored over Georgia Tech
on a neutral field, or should be again, the books
are going to do what they do to balance risk.
But what I'm telling you is if Georgia Tech was
favored over any of those teams, that dog would get
double fisted money at the window from every sharp that
(32:17):
rest the shore there as tony as you get had
to throw it. Sorry, just share a little Georgia tech information.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Oh incredible, Marco DiAngelo. We had an awesome birthday special
for you last week. What do you got going on
this week? And who's your best bet? Because I had
to change my best bet because we were head to head.
Speaker 3 (32:39):
Well again, the birthday bash last week worked out well.
It was very popular. We had a ton of people
on board, and we delivered with another winning week, highlighted
by that big five percent on Nebraska small dog got
the money against UCLA winning that game outright, and we've
(33:00):
coming back with a big deal. And now this deal,
the first offer is available to anybody at wager Talk.
You can pick up you know how popular the Weekend
Warrior has been, where you can pick up Saturday and
Sunday college and pro football for forty nine dollars, and
then you get Monday any football action as a free bonus.
We're offering ten days for ninety nine dollars. Get on board,
(33:23):
get everything for ten days for ninety nine dollars. That's
a great offer. But if you were on for my
birthday Bash, you got a taste of everything. You got
my college, my NFL, you got the NBA, you got hockey,
you got college basketball now very spot plays in the
other sports early in the season, but it's paid dividends.
(33:44):
We're winning in the NBA. We're off to a three
to zero start in college basketball. Been very selective and
we're on a twenty one and nine run the last
thirteen days, which has netted us a profit of over
three thousand dollars. For the clients we want to go
through the Super Bowl. There's thirteen weeks. You can get everything,
(34:04):
every play I have, every sport, and it throws in
any of those extras. Remember the Breeders' Cup that forever
Young Horse made a nice score that day as well.
You get everything for thirteen weeks through the Super Bowl.
Seven forty nine guys. That comes out to just sixty
dollars per week. We charge ninety nine dollars per week
(34:25):
regular rate. So jump on board any of those options,
and we do have another five percent play coming this weekend.
Those five percent plays thirty six and sixteen now since
February of twenty twenty four. For this week's best bet, Kelly,
and I'm sure I threw you a curveball because one
of the things I always always say is give me
(34:48):
the better defense. Getting points I'm going to sign up there,
and there's no question we're looking at the USC Iowa game.
And when you're going to talk about the better defense,
it is Iowa. So a lot of people are gonna say, Marco,
you're going against yourself. Well, you know, we have a
lot of as I like to refer to marcoisms, and
there's one here that I got to bring up. Last week,
(35:11):
Iowa got their backers paid. All right, they lost to
Oregon eighteen to sixteen, but cash the tickets. They closed
plus four and a half. And that's usually the way
you're gonna cash an Iowa ticket. It's gonna be but
ugly low scoring game and they're either gonna win that
low scoring game or lose that low scoring game. But
(35:32):
if they're getting points, they get you the money. That
makes Iowa this week the poster child for lose the
same game twice. You had Oregon come to your building
and you took them to the limit. We know that
these teams that come in from the PAC twelve, you
know it's a big deal when they come to your
(35:53):
building for the first time. And they did everything but
win that game. They had to lead late and just
like State had to lead late to Indiana. They lost
it in the waning moments of the game. How do
you pick yourself back up from that? I don't see
them doing it. Then you gotta fly to the West
coast and play Southern Cal. We know what Southern Cal's about.
(36:16):
It's all offense, you know, no defense. It's you know,
Lincoln Riley, it's you know, Oklahoma. Two point zero is
what it is. But I'm playing the situation. I don't
see Iowa being as physical, being as ready as they
were last week. And if they come out slow and
they fall behind by two quick scores in this game,
(36:37):
which USC can do that with that offense at any time,
It's gonna be tough for this Iowa team with that
offense to grind their way back. I see USC getting
out early and just keeping the pedal to the medal.
I'm gonna go ahead take USC U lay the points
with this one. We're getting a soft number I feel
(36:57):
with USC because of Iowa's near miss. We're gonna go
ahead and take USC minus the six and a half.
Speaker 1 (37:05):
All right, Well, I think Marco talked me out of
taking the points with the Hawkeyes, so I pivoted. Last week.
We had a nice overtouchdown underdog win for us outright
in Yukonnen. I'm putting Northwestern in. It is my barking
dog for a reason. I'm not sure they can win
this game. And I started looking and I said, wow,
(37:26):
the home team's covered five straight in the series, and well,
technically the game is in Chicago, it's at Wrigley Field,
so kind of thought, all right, even though it's too
many points, I'm not sure I'm gonna get to the
window with the Wildcats on the money line, especially because
Michigan has won eight straight meetings in this Big Ten matchup.
(37:51):
Wolverines are also coming off of bye week, so I thought, hey,
you know what, they're gonna be well arrested here. They've
got Maryland on deck. This really isn't a spot that
they're gonna be overlooking the Wilds. But it's still the
Northwestern Wildcats. We all saw them on Friday night. Well,
it was kind of a controversy, if you will, that
thirty eight to seventeen road loss at USC maybe had
(38:12):
an opportunity to cover that game was a little off.
But I think we have been expecting for a while
now for Bryce Underwood to have that breakout game, and
I think we're gonna be waiting another week. This Wildcats
defense is very good at limiting explosive plays on offense.
I think this is gonna be a low scoring affair,
which bodes well for a double digit underdog against a
(38:34):
team that is just three and six against the spread
on the season. You're paying a premium here for the
jersey that says Michigan. I like Northwestern plus twelve and
a half. Appreciate you guys hanging out with us this
week here on the college football edition to bet.
Speaker 2 (38:50):
On It, like Smash That, like Bunton, and because we
try to share as much information as possible. The reason
you got Ohio State is the best bet is because
of Marco's best bet. There's a for you. I couldn't
use it.
Speaker 1 (39:02):
La VR also likes the Trojans more reasons not to
take the square dog and Iowa, so I appreciate both
of you. Let's get that recap graphic up because we
know how much our audience loves it. And of course,
if you guys are looking for that NFL edition of
bet On It, you can catch it right here. And
if you're looking for the Mega show with all the goodies.
(39:25):
We got you guys covered. Good luck until next week.
Let's bet on it.
It's hard to believe that college football Week twelve is here.
We've got barking dogs off another epic week. We've got
those TV games, talking about those top twenty five matchups.
We're gonna get the Steam report from VR. We're gonna
check in with Marco to see if Ben Deli is
still red hot.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
And courts.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
We've got best bets up next on bet on It.
Kelly Stewart here with Yanni the Greek in the middle,
(00:38):
Marco DiAngelo there in the third chair. We're gonna go
over these top twenty five games, starting with number nine
Notre Dame minus twelve and a half taking on number
twenty three Pittsburgh Noon Eastern total fifty five and a half. Here. VR,
this's an interesting one because you did a video on
(00:59):
the Wait to Talk social channels talking about power ratings,
and clearly these two, even though they're not far away
in the ap pole coaches Pull and so forth, are
light years away from a power ratings perspective.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Well said Kelly, and coming off of Mice three and
oh last week in college football for bet on It,
right now, I'm twenty six and seven on the show,
seventy nine percent. I got more gold for you this week.
But just going to make a disclaimer. Been selective with
those premium cards on Saturday in college football, as you
(01:32):
see no reason to fire five percents, just a bunch
of four percents and spreading out our risk, and that's
got me at number one in profit. With that said,
I'm coming off of losing week in college football. Tell
you when I win, tell you when I lose. Twelve
weeks so far, we've won ten of those, and I
really feel strongly about this week's card. But some of
these lines have moved. And here's what I'm talking about.
(01:53):
I bet Notre Dame already. I sent it out to
my subscribers at minus ten and the only reason this
wasn't a five percent play is because this is exactly
what I thought was gonna happen. Wise, guys are gonna
see the exact same things that I'm seeing, and they
are going to jump on the Notre Dame side. Why
because these are two very different seven and two teams.
(02:14):
And that's why I love college sports, because of those
rankings that allow us to take advantage of the narratives.
You don't have that in pro sports. Same thing with
college basketball. And yes I am using those power ratings
in college basketball, and for the first time I have
my guy making them in NBA as well. Not going
(02:37):
to use them to bet, but just gonna monitor this
first year, but college basketball. Same dude that did college
football is doing college basketball as well. So we could
go over those maybe in wage to talk today. Now
getting back to Notre Dame in Pittsburgh, two seven two teams,
but very different seven and two teams. And here's what
I mean. Notre Dame top five power rating in my
(02:57):
power ratings right now. Luckily the rankings have caught up
and at least have Notre Dame in their top ten.
But here's what you're looking at with Notre Dame. They
have a top twenty five strength of schedule, so they've
played one of the toughest strength of schedules so far,
and they've managed to have the fifth most efficient offense
and more importantly, the third most efficient defense, so they're
(03:19):
top five in the two most important categories. When I
look at the Pittsburgh side, they've had.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
The sixty ninth sixty ninth.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Toughest schedule, okay, and they've managed to be the fifty
eighth fifty eighth most efficient defense now going up against
the top five offense, Are you kidding me? Their offense
looks pretty good. They cracked the top twenty in efficiency Pittsburgh,
but again that's against the sixty ninth toughest strength of schedule.
They're now facing the top three defense. That's a legitimate
(03:51):
top three that's done it against the top twenty five schedule.
That's what they're running into with Notre Dame. And that's
why this totals drop in Pittsburgh will not score many
points on Saturday. Rest the short Notre Dame in a
one sided blowout. I like Notre Dame. I like the
under as well. Four percent on Notre Dame at minus ten.
We bought the half point down. I think this one's
(04:12):
good up until about minus thirteen. Again, value gets extracted
with every point that moves. I'm not going to bet
the same at minus twelve twelve and a half that
I did at minus ten. But I still think Notre
Dame gets it done on Saturday. And like I said,
I think they keep the game under as well, because
only one side is going to do to score and
give me Dame minus the points.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Very interesting, Marco, I knew you had a point you
wanted to interject with really quick before we got to
your TV game.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
Yeah, he's so back up what you're thinking with Notre Dame.
In the press conference this week, everybody's making a big
deal about game day being here in Pittsburgh. You know,
that's a rarity and everything. And they ask coach Narduci,
how big is this game for the pitt Panthers this season?
And I didn't like his ants are at all. And
(05:01):
what he said was, this is a non conference game.
Our focus is ACC We're looking at getting to the
ACC championship game and that's our You know, it's almost
like he's already setting up an excuse for losing to
Notre Dame.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Dude, Notre Dame watched them beat Florida State as ten
point dogs. They're getting Notre Dame full tension because Pittsburgh's
coming in on five straight wins, five straight covers. That's
the problem for Pittsburgh. If this was a bad Pittsburgh team,
then Notre Dame may be in trouble. But they got
their full attention. This is gonna get ugly for Pittsburgh.
He's already making excuses because he's seen the game field.
(05:41):
He knows how it's going to turn out for his team.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
And we probably know he's good for at least one
kicking is for losers. Moment, Marco, we're gonna get to
a SEC matchup here. Three thirty Eastern, Number eleven Oklahoma
is a six and a half point underdog. Number four
Alabama forty six and a half. Here is the total.
I love the underdogs Oklahoma on my long list. Do
(06:04):
you agree with me here?
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Well, Kelly, Alabama got me the money last week. It
was a little closer than I thought it was gonna be,
but they ended up getting the money in the end,
and I'm gonna come right back to them, and let's
give LSU credit. We really didn't know how they were
going to respond, you know, with the firing of Brian Kelly.
You know, we know that most teams do have that spark,
but because it was such a big program and they
(06:27):
had such high expectations, I wasn't sure that LSU would
show up last week, but they did. Alabama was able
to win the game. Did they take LSU for granted,
you know, a big name like that, you would say no.
But given the season LSU's had in this game on deck.
Maybe they did have one eye to Oklahoma, because if
(06:48):
you look at the schedule after this one, it's clear
sailing for Alabama and to get to the SEC championship game,
get to the national playoffs, and maybe get back to
the championship game. Alabama has struggled to run the football
the last two games, seventy two and fifty six yards
(07:09):
the last two. That's a little bit of a concern,
but let's look at what they do well in their
passing game has averaged just under three hundred yards per game.
Oklahoma's had trouble with some good passing teams. When they
faced Old Miss in Tennessee, they gave up three hundred
and fifteen yards passing to Old Miss and three ninety
three to Tennessee. So Alabama should be able to move
(07:32):
the football against this Oklahoma defense. And whenever you flip
the script and Alabama is on defense and Oklahoma's trying
to score, they're not facing Old Miss in Tennessee defenses.
This week. They're facing the legit defense. Alabama has only
allowed one team all year to top twenty four points
and that was Week one in that and I'm still
(07:53):
trying to figure out how they lost to Florida State
in that opening week. Oklahoma will struggle on defense to
stop Alabama. I'm gonna go ahead. I'm laying it with
the Crimson tide. I've got Alabama winning thirty to seventeen.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
Yeah, and I kind of suspected that. I was joking
with Aaron Epstein this morning at breakfast, and I said,
oh god, I hate being head to head with Marco
this year. For whatever reason, I got one win, luckily
by the hook with Northwestern versus you and Nebraska. Otherwise
we it has been all insided. It has been all
Marco Tiangelo when we disagree. Another SEC matchup for you
(08:34):
guys here on Saturday evening seven, excuse me, seven thirty
pm Eastern. Number ten. Texas is a six and a
half point underdog at number five Georgia forty eight and
a half. And look, just mentioned to Marco. You know
I love these underdogs, So of course here I am going,
how can I make a case for Texas? And you'd
think Texas is coming off a bye last year? Remember
(08:57):
Georgia winning to Austin won thirty to fifteen. But the
final score wasn't as bad as the beating that that
actually was. And then of course Texas had opportunities to
beat Georgia and the SEC Championship game couldn't get it done.
Both of those games stayed under the total. And that's
kind of where I'm looking in this one because I
(09:17):
do not trust arch Manning, I do not trust Texas,
and I do not trust Steve Sarkisian. Steve Sarkisian versus
top ten teams in his career five and eighteen two
an eight in Texas. But you know who I do trust? Oh,
that's right, I trust the Texas Longhorns defense. I think Georgia,
(09:37):
playing their level of ball against this team is going
to go down to the wire. But I think this
is going to be a close, low scoring game. Let's
call it Georgia twenty four, Texas twenty. Texas may get
the cover for you, guys. I just do not trust
sark to be able to win this football game. We've
(09:58):
got a Steam report coming out up here with VR,
and if you guys are new here, we do something
every single Sunday at wager Talk called the Steam Room
where VR comes in after wager Talk's last hall with
Ariel Epstein and he goes over everything headed in to
the NFL season. And now we don't do that on Saturday,
but we give you guys a little preview of it
here on Wednesdays on.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Bet on It indeed, and a little preview each day
on wager Talk today when I go in the morning
and share that college Basketball Steam NBA Steam currently top
three in profit, number one coming for you in college
basketball power rate. He's getting stronger and stronger each and
every day. Now here's what I did with college football,
just like the last two weeks. Narrowed down those ten
(10:41):
moves that are the most legit this early on where
I haven't seen resistance only in one game. I'm going
to share it because it's a high profile game and
we had followed through from any look ahead action. So
let's dive right in. All of it is on Saturday
three twenty one, Air Force plus the eight three point
thirty three Marshall plus five minus five and a half
(11:04):
forgive me all the way up to the key number
of minus seven. So they laid the key seven on
Marshall three thirty nine Virginia plus six and a half
plus six. Seems they're getting out ahead of the public
because the publics on Virginia as well.
Speaker 1 (11:20):
Three forty two.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Florida State laid the eleven and a half, which was
kind of like a look ahead, laid the thirteen, laid
thirteen and a half as well on Florida State. Notre
Dame talked about them a little earlier from minus ten
opener which we got down on that's what they pay
me for to minus eleven that got hit yesterday three
fifty seven Oklahoma plus the touchdown three fifty sixty three
(11:45):
forgive me, Texas State not a sexy team, but got
hit by multiple groups at six and a half, six
and then five and a half again Arkansas LSU. Bringing
this one up because we did see two sided action.
Mine plus six and a half plus six plus five
and a half plus five got the four and a half,
(12:06):
and that's when you saw the LSU money come in.
I thought it would happen at minus four. Didn't even
wait for that. They came in right away at minus
four and a half and laid the LSU side. So
obviously a difference of opinion there UH three eighty seven,
Michigan minus ten and eleven, and finally no surprise three
to ninety three TCU plus six five and a half
(12:29):
and five versus the Phony BYU team, which will be
exposed eventually as shouldn't be ranked.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Sooo just shouldn't even be ranked. Now, Yeah, you upt
some people in the comment section there. If you guys
have a comment for it, mean.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Unless you're going, you know, thirty teams out, you know
they're not top twenty, the top thirty, top thirty.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Oh boy, oh boy. Well, if you guys disagree with
the r or if you agree with them dropping in
the comment section interview like this next segment, which you
should because we've been cashing it at such a great
rate of underdogs. Let us know what you think of
this week's dogs. Send us a little note and we'll
be sure to get back to you. Marco DiAngelo, you
gotta go first. Last week's barking Dog cashed for you,
(13:16):
and I should have tailed you and I didn't, and
I regretted it immediately.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
All Right, till well, this week we're going to game
that VR just talked about Arkansas and LSU. I'm on
the Arkansas side. Arkansas they're two and seven. I'm gonna
tell you this right now, and this is gonna sound stupid,
but they're the best two and seventeen in the country.
They've lost seven in a row. Five of those seven
losses were by seven points or less. Turnovers have killed
(13:44):
this team all season long. In those seven losses, they
were on the wrong side of a thirteen to four
turnover margin, and yet they still manage to have five
one score losses. When your minus you know, more than
two turnovers in a game, you're supposed to lose those
games and lose them by a margin they're not. That
(14:05):
tells you this team is much better than their record is.
No LSU. They've lost three in a row. But here's
the part why I'm fading them is they did give
that good effort against Alabama. So they did rise to
the occasion try to get it done the first game
without Brian Kelly.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
But what was it?
Speaker 3 (14:25):
They ended up losing the game because of the same reason.
It probably got Brian Kelly fire. They've got no offense.
They scored nine points last week against Alabama. I cannot
lay points with this team. And to me, they showed
up last week. How do they come with anything this week?
Please don't tell me about pride. Please don't tell me
(14:48):
that they've got five wins and they're trying to get
BAWL eligible. Do you really think these kids in today's
new age of college football and nil money really are
excited about going to a bowl game that's gonna be
a shit bowl that half of them will probably opt
out of even if they did make it to the
bowl game. Why because they're gonna be looking at where
(15:10):
they're going next year to get paid with the nil
I don't see this team showing up here. This is
a rivalry game. Remember when LSU and Arkansas back in
the day was every Thanksgiving it was that Friday or
Saturday on the docket, and this was a big rivalry game. Well,
LSU has better, bigger rivalries, but for Arkansas this is
(15:33):
still huge. I look for them to come to play
in this one. They'll control the game with the running game.
This is a team that's run for one hundred and
seventy five yards or more in seven of nine games
this year, and in three of the last four they've
run the ball for two hundred and thirty nine yards
or more. If you can control the line of scrimmage,
(15:53):
you're gonna win the football game. I've got Arkansas winning
this one. Let's take Arkansas, which could be finally in
a shootout for LSU because the Arkansas defense least a
little bit to be desired. I've got Arkansas winning thirty
one to twenty seven.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
May I interject Kelly really quickly? Arkansas, Marco, Arkansas two
and seven Arkansas, based on my power ratings, would be
a one point favorite on a neutral field against seven
and two Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
Yes, they have a top ten strength of schedule, their
top fifteen most efficient offense in all college football with
a top ten strength of schedule, and the strength that
schedule gets even harder the last few games for this team.
They're legit at two and seven, as legiti as a
two and seven can get.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
You're right, Marco, I also don't know how many LSU
kids are going to be leaving because I just got
this text about seven seconds ago. Do you want to
take a guess who the front runner is currently on
FanDuel to be the next head coach of the LSU Tigers?
Who Nick Saban right now? One to bring on the
(17:06):
baton rouge bro. That would be absolutely bananas. Uh, maybe
that might keep those kids hanging around just a little
bit longer. We are a dog that is on my
long list, so I'm happy to see it on your
budd dog list. You had wake Forest last week. I
said I liked wake Forest and they liketed to go
(17:27):
with Miszoo. But that's beside the point. Maybe I should
be listening to you guys for my three team underd
on parlay. But I do like Sparti this week. Can
you tell everybody why you do as well?
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Yeah, because this is the only dog I have so
far this week, but no any more serious.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
It is, but I don't.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Here's here I keep it real. I didn't place a
great bet because I betted at plus seven. I thought
they would get steam and the seventh would be gone.
I could get seven and a half today, so obviously
I didn't get the best of it, and that worries me.
When my sharpest shop pass seven and a half, I
would have rather seen six and a half this morning.
(18:07):
With that said, I'm locked in my bets place. And
here's why I like it. Number one. I've been high
on Penn State, saying they are undervalued because of their record,
but you know they were a top thirty, top twenty,
top ten at one point Power rated team when they
weren't even in the rankings anywhere, and again that was
(18:29):
based on their record, and they've haven't been able to
get w's. But they've covered two of their last three games.
And here's the problem for Penn State right now. They've
just gone through a murderers row in back to back weeks.
They had to travel to Ohio State and face the
best team in the country, physical game, got beat up,
(18:52):
lost by twenty four points. Following week play a legit,
legit Indiana at home, top three in my power ratings
right there to win that game as two touchdown dogs,
don't get the WU lose that game heartbreaking. Now you
got to travel to Michigan State, who's been outperforming the
(19:14):
betting market, even though they're not winning games because they're
not losing by margin, which tells me this is a
team that's continuously given me effort week in and week out.
They're just undermined, that's the bottom line. But they're outperforming
the betting market, and in most cases you would think
that the betting market would catch up. But this is
(19:35):
the problem is who they're playing. It's that Penn State's side.
And the reason Penn State's so beat up right now
is because they've played the thirteenth toughest schedule in all
of college football. They've managed to be top fifteen offense
and defense with that kind of schedule, but it's not
producing w's. And when that starts to happen over and
(19:55):
over and over again, it just gets harder to get
yourself up and play games like this. I think Michigan
State at home is able to keep this close a
lot closer than that line reflects another team that's, you know,
decent strength of schedule, top thirty offense. Defense. Again, nothing
(20:18):
a lot to brag about Michigan State. So I'm not
going to sit here and talk about them like they're
world beaters. But I just think this is a bad
spot for Penn State. It's more of a fade on
Penn State than a bet on Michigan State. Like I said,
I'm locked in at plus seven. Don't like seven and
a half's out there. But if you agree with me,
you're gonna get a better number. If not, we'll see
(20:41):
what happens Saturday. But Michigan State's my dog of a week.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Yeah, I v are And look, I think a lot
of times some of these underdogs that we have and
the reason why we think they're barking. Isn't necessarily a
play on the team, it's a play against another, right.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Yeah, yeah, that's kind of my whole theory. I one,
it's a perfect storm when it's like that's when you
feel really strong, when you like the side and you
want to fade that other team, Like those are the
perfect storms. But yeah, sometimes it's a play on or against.
And I agree this is definitely a play because again,
there's not a lot to like with Michigan State. Let's
be real, other than they're they're they're they're keeping it close,
(21:18):
and they're showing effort over the last couple of weeks.
And this is a home game, you know, and they
played they have a strong home field advantage based on
their record. They haven't won a single road game, you know.
Anything they've done they've done at home, where Penn State
has played horrible on the road.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
So I like the splits.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
There's that to lean on Michigan State, but otherwise there's not.
And I'm not going to waste the viewers' time sitting
here talking up Michigan State like they're great. No, it's
a fate of Penn State.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
What do you say last week that Wake Force was
shit and guess what they got it done for you?
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Yea, yet they did.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
You're stepping in it again this week with another shitty team.
Let's see if they can't get it done.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
For you here.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Top seventy in my Power ratings.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Though by the comment section is gonna have a lot
of fun today. Vre mentioned a perfect storm here. I'm
hoping I have a perfect storm with the Arizona Wilds
catch catching six and a half. I understand they had
to come from behind to beat the University of Kansas
last week, but sometimes those types of wins do push
(22:19):
teams into the following week. Now Arizona, who missed a
bowl game last year, is Bowl eligible. They have the
number one passing efficiency defense in the country, and that's
why I'm looking to back them here. Yes, Cincinnati's off
a bye, but prior to that buy they lost to Utah.
(22:40):
I know BYU just got absolutely eviscerted by VR.
Speaker 3 (22:44):
But.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
BYU still looking to make a splash in the Big twelve,
and I think Cincinnati may be overlooking Arizona this week.
Cincinnati gives up thirty one yards per game, more than average.
Right They're number one hundred and three in the country there,
and so keep in mind that Arizona and Fafita may
(23:08):
be able to take advantage of that. Arizona, on the
flip side, holds opponents to sixty three yards below their average.
That is a top thirty team in FBS. I think
that Cincinnati at home is an advantage, right. We know
Arizona cold weather Eastern time zone does not necessarily bode
well for this West Coast team, but I think Arizona
(23:29):
has them in a dog fight late. I know it's
not a technical sandwich for Marco, but it's kind of
one of those situations that had me thinking, hmm, speaking
of sandwiches, the Deli just keeps on rocking, Marco. I'm
so proud of this segment because it's such a fun segment.
In addition to that, it's just been absolutely red hot
(23:51):
all season long.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
Yeah, yeah, Kelly, We've been nailing them here on the show,
but where the real magic has been happening is in
the bonus show, Marco's Deli that comes out on Thursday.
We've had seven winning weeks, two losing weeks, one break
even week, and that has resulted after last week's five
and oh sweep on the show to thirty two and
(24:13):
seventeen for the season if you're tuning in to the
Bonus Show. So very happy with that. And I also
want to thank everybody both here and on Marco's Deli
with all the birthday wishes last week. I appreciate all
you guys with that. So let's just keep the deli going.
And sometimes, as I said, you might not like the
(24:35):
sandwich and what it looks like smells like, but it
always ends up tasting good. And this week we're going
to take a look at UTEP plus four and a
half playing Missouri State. Let's just start with this line,
because something smells. I don't know if it's the stinky
cheese I have on the sandwich, but you've got a
six and three Missouri State team playing at home only
(24:59):
lay four and a half points to UTEP who is
two and seven. Right there should set off some alarms
for you. And when we look at this one, why
is this a sandwich game? Well, Missouri State came into
and I'll admit it on the show. I was wrong
with Liberty last week. Liberty was playing better at the time,
(25:20):
only had one loss in the conference. Missouri State went
in there beat Liberty at Liberty last week to get
them in contention with this conference Conference USA. And they've
got a huge game next week because they played the
first place team next week in Kennesas State. That puts
us in a classic sandwich. You had Liberty last week,
(25:43):
who was supposed to be the class of this conference
coming into the season, and the team that actually is
the class of the conference next week. Then you throw
in the fact that that win last week, what did
that make Missouri State's record? It made it six and
three the old men, Now we're Bowl eligible. Yeah, I
just think you're a little bit too fat and sassy
(26:05):
after last week. What you've got coming up next week
and you're playing a two and seventeam, You're gonna look
past this Texasel passo team. Five of Missouri State's six
wins have been by seven points or less. Missouri State
six and three, but they've been held to twenty four
or fewer points in seven of their nine games this year.
(26:27):
That's not exactly what you want a team that doesn't
break twenty four when they're laying points. I expect another
nail bitter here, and I'm gonna go with UTEP to
pull the Upset as my sandwich game of the week.
We're gonna go with Texas Eel Passo twenty three to twenty.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
You can catch Marco's Extended Deli Show. It's a standalone
version here on the Wager talk to YouTube channel, or
we add it into the Mega Show with NFL College
as well as Teddy Stockwatch and Ralph's TNA. Let's get
into those best bets because we're up against the clock here, VR.
I'm gonna let you go first, per usual, but before
(27:08):
you give everybody your best bet for college football Week twelve,
please let everybody know what you got going on over
at wager dot com.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Oh yeah, I have. First off, I'm gonna mention the
UFC pay per view card is up because I have
a five percent in there that I love. This card
already fired five bets. I've been working on that card
for like two weeks. It's a get to the window
and bet cash Saturday for me. College football won ten
of twelve weeks coming off of losing week.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
You know what that means.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
We're gonna progress towards the mean. If I find a
five percent, we will fire it. Otherwise those fours will
be a package up with all fours. You know how
they've gone six and one the week before. They just
continue to produce money. NFL same thing, package up four
percent best bets. I like the primetime games as well.
(27:58):
Also weekday coming off of Weep Yesterday in college football,
those weekday primetime games have been money in college football
and NFL. I think I'm like thirteen and two now
Monday Night Football, Sunday Night Football last like eight weeks,
so red hot, jump on board. College basketball's here with
the NBA. I got the college basketball power ratings are
(28:20):
in full effect, getting tighter and tighter. So alter eight
climb the ladder. Now up to the number three in
college basketball will continue to climb, So jump on board.
Let's close out the year strong and yeah, do some
damage on Saturday and Sunday and got a couple, Like
I said, weekday games as well. Now let's get into
best bets. You're gonna say, so, you're serious, You're coming
(28:42):
square with us. Listen, I'm gonna give you guys premium
because my subscribers are cool with it because they get
enough volume, and I'm gonna share with I've bet and
this is one of the bets I've already placed, and
that's oh hot, oh State. Why because it's a good spot,
the better team that finally under against the betting market,
which arguably played a terrible game. But if you leave
(29:04):
the box score, here's what they did. They had sixteen
more first downs than Perdue. They held the ball for
thirty one twenty one more minutes than Perdue forty minutes
to nineteen. They completely dominated. They ran on them for
one hundred and seventy yards, they threw on them for
three hundred three yards, They held them the ninety four
yards passing. They just didn't put up a lot of
(29:25):
points and they turned the ball over. That's the bottom line.
They were comfortably ahead twenty four to three at halftime.
That's what happened. Otherwise, they've been unblemish, is what Ohowa
State's been because not only have they been winning football games,
but they've been outperforming the betting market as the number
one team in the country. You know now how hard
(29:46):
that is to do. Go back and look at those
years that Alabama was so dominant, and you're going to
see a team that was twelve and zero, six and
six ATS, five and seven ATS, maybe one year seven
and five ATS but they did a really good job
of making sure you're not gonna make money betting the
number one teams because they know that's who's gonna get
(30:08):
the money every single week. And yet they went out
there and they covered every single game until last week.
That just tells you how good this Ohio State team is.
I've had them number one in my power ratings. I said,
there's no team better than them. They're at least or
more than a field goal better than the next best team.
(30:31):
And the problem that UCLA is gonna have is they're
now facing a defense that's about five x better than
what they faced in Indiana, and against Indiana they only
were able to manage seven points. Ohio State has absolutely
no one on deck but Rutgers. This is gonna be
a celebration at home where they run up the score
(30:52):
on a UCLA team because it's UCLA and they can.
And that's exactly what's gonna happen. When I look at UCLA,
they barely crack my top seventy power rating wise, They've
had a tough schedule top twenty strength of schedule, but
that put them at the seventy fifth most deficient offense
(31:12):
fifty plus most deficient defense and you're going up against
top three in both. Yeah, Ohio State rolls on Saturday.
Thirties not enough, thirty two is not enough, thirty three
is not enough. Like the bottom line is, once you
get up over those minus twenties, the variance is so high.
The one point line movement one and a half two
(31:33):
point line movement doesn't scare me at all. Lay the
points with Penn State. They blow out UCLA by forty plus.
All right, I just gotta say it on this show.
What is Georgia Tech? Please tell me what is Georgia
Tech doing? Still in the rankings at number sixteen? Right now,
right now, I'll tell you Marco's Arkansas Marcos two and seven,
(31:56):
Arkansas Florida at three and six, and Florida stayed at
four and five. Would all be favored over Georgia Tech
on a neutral field, or should be again, the books
are going to do what they do to balance risk.
But what I'm telling you is if Georgia Tech was
favored over any of those teams, that dog would get
double fisted money at the window from every sharp that
(32:17):
rest the shore there as tony as you get had
to throw it. Sorry, just share a little Georgia tech information.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Oh incredible, Marco DiAngelo. We had an awesome birthday special
for you last week. What do you got going on
this week? And who's your best bet? Because I had
to change my best bet because we were head to head.
Speaker 3 (32:39):
Well again, the birthday bash last week worked out well.
It was very popular. We had a ton of people
on board, and we delivered with another winning week, highlighted
by that big five percent on Nebraska small dog got
the money against UCLA winning that game outright, and we've
(33:00):
coming back with a big deal. And now this deal,
the first offer is available to anybody at wager Talk.
You can pick up you know how popular the Weekend
Warrior has been, where you can pick up Saturday and
Sunday college and pro football for forty nine dollars, and
then you get Monday any football action as a free bonus.
We're offering ten days for ninety nine dollars. Get on board,
(33:23):
get everything for ten days for ninety nine dollars. That's
a great offer. But if you were on for my
birthday Bash, you got a taste of everything. You got
my college, my NFL, you got the NBA, you got hockey,
you got college basketball now very spot plays in the
other sports early in the season, but it's paid dividends.
(33:44):
We're winning in the NBA. We're off to a three
to zero start in college basketball. Been very selective and
we're on a twenty one and nine run the last
thirteen days, which has netted us a profit of over
three thousand dollars. For the clients we want to go
through the Super Bowl. There's thirteen weeks. You can get everything,
(34:04):
every play I have, every sport, and it throws in
any of those extras. Remember the Breeders' Cup that forever
Young Horse made a nice score that day as well.
You get everything for thirteen weeks through the Super Bowl.
Seven forty nine guys. That comes out to just sixty
dollars per week. We charge ninety nine dollars per week
(34:25):
regular rate. So jump on board any of those options,
and we do have another five percent play coming this weekend.
Those five percent plays thirty six and sixteen now since
February of twenty twenty four. For this week's best bet, Kelly,
and I'm sure I threw you a curveball because one
of the things I always always say is give me
(34:48):
the better defense. Getting points I'm going to sign up there,
and there's no question we're looking at the USC Iowa game.
And when you're going to talk about the better defense,
it is Iowa. So a lot of people are gonna say, Marco,
you're going against yourself. Well, you know, we have a
lot of as I like to refer to marcoisms, and
there's one here that I got to bring up. Last week,
(35:11):
Iowa got their backers paid. All right, they lost to
Oregon eighteen to sixteen, but cash the tickets. They closed
plus four and a half. And that's usually the way
you're gonna cash an Iowa ticket. It's gonna be but
ugly low scoring game and they're either gonna win that
low scoring game or lose that low scoring game. But
(35:32):
if they're getting points, they get you the money. That
makes Iowa this week the poster child for lose the
same game twice. You had Oregon come to your building
and you took them to the limit. We know that
these teams that come in from the PAC twelve, you
know it's a big deal when they come to your
(35:53):
building for the first time. And they did everything but
win that game. They had to lead late and just
like State had to lead late to Indiana. They lost
it in the waning moments of the game. How do
you pick yourself back up from that? I don't see
them doing it. Then you gotta fly to the West
coast and play Southern Cal. We know what Southern Cal's about.
(36:16):
It's all offense, you know, no defense. It's you know,
Lincoln Riley, it's you know, Oklahoma. Two point zero is
what it is. But I'm playing the situation. I don't
see Iowa being as physical, being as ready as they
were last week. And if they come out slow and
they fall behind by two quick scores in this game,
(36:37):
which USC can do that with that offense at any time,
It's gonna be tough for this Iowa team with that
offense to grind their way back. I see USC getting
out early and just keeping the pedal to the medal.
I'm gonna go ahead take USC U lay the points
with this one. We're getting a soft number I feel
(36:57):
with USC because of Iowa's near miss. We're gonna go
ahead and take USC minus the six and a half.
Speaker 1 (37:05):
All right, Well, I think Marco talked me out of
taking the points with the Hawkeyes, so I pivoted. Last week.
We had a nice overtouchdown underdog win for us outright
in Yukonnen. I'm putting Northwestern in. It is my barking
dog for a reason. I'm not sure they can win
this game. And I started looking and I said, wow,
(37:26):
the home team's covered five straight in the series, and well,
technically the game is in Chicago, it's at Wrigley Field,
so kind of thought, all right, even though it's too
many points, I'm not sure I'm gonna get to the
window with the Wildcats on the money line, especially because
Michigan has won eight straight meetings in this Big Ten matchup.
(37:51):
Wolverines are also coming off of bye week, so I thought, hey,
you know what, they're gonna be well arrested here. They've
got Maryland on deck. This really isn't a spot that
they're gonna be overlooking the Wilds. But it's still the
Northwestern Wildcats. We all saw them on Friday night. Well,
it was kind of a controversy, if you will, that
thirty eight to seventeen road loss at USC maybe had
(38:12):
an opportunity to cover that game was a little off.
But I think we have been expecting for a while
now for Bryce Underwood to have that breakout game, and
I think we're gonna be waiting another week. This Wildcats
defense is very good at limiting explosive plays on offense.
I think this is gonna be a low scoring affair,
which bodes well for a double digit underdog against a
(38:34):
team that is just three and six against the spread
on the season. You're paying a premium here for the
jersey that says Michigan. I like Northwestern plus twelve and
a half. Appreciate you guys hanging out with us this
week here on the college football edition to bet.
Speaker 2 (38:50):
On It, like Smash That, like Bunton, and because we
try to share as much information as possible. The reason
you got Ohio State is the best bet is because
of Marco's best bet. There's a for you. I couldn't
use it.
Speaker 1 (39:02):
La VR also likes the Trojans more reasons not to
take the square dog and Iowa, so I appreciate both
of you. Let's get that recap graphic up because we
know how much our audience loves it. And of course,
if you guys are looking for that NFL edition of
bet On It, you can catch it right here. And
if you're looking for the Mega show with all the goodies.
(39:25):
We got you guys covered. Good luck until next week.
Let's bet on it.
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