WagerTalk Today | Monday Best Bets! | MNF, NBA and College Basketball | 11/17

On Monday's edition of WagerTalk Today, Steve Merril previews tonight's NFL Week 11 finale in the Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders Monday Night Football matchup and takes a look at CBB Action between Oregon State vs Oregon and Bucs vs Cavaliers in NBA. Bill Krackomberger joins the show to talk the latest in the sports betting industry and give his favorite prop for NBA Monday Action. Andy Lang reacts to Sunday's NFL action, provides props and shares free picks and Gianni The Greek gives daily betting advice – don't miss out!

Intro 00:00
Gianni the Greek 00:50
Steam Report 2:09
NFL Early Lines 10:52
Monday CBB 14:31
Andy Lang All Around the World Free Plays (MNF, NFL & NBA) 16:26
Bill Krackomberger 18:20
NBA Player Prop 26:15
MNF Thoughts 28:21
NFL Week 11 Reactions 33:40
Where the Books Won/Lost 34:30
Prop Betting Winners & Losers 34:56
Steve Merril 42:05
Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders 44:15
Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers 48:18
Oregon State vs Oregon 51:20
Chicago Bulls vs Denver Nuggets 57:22

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
La, Welcome to Way Do You Talking today, the gold
standard of sports Betty shows where we talked to talk
and walk the Walk. Monday, New Week, New Opportunities. Of course,
gonna start with Yanni and the Steam Report. Yanni and
I both coming off a huge UFC card, so we'll
talk about that. Crack Man, of course is gonna drop
an NBA prop. We'll get some Monday night football thoughts

(00:21):
in Steve Merrill. We put a lot on Steve Merrill's
play today. This man is gonna break down Cowboys versus Raiders,
Bucks versus Cavalier. And then we're going to college basketball
to soth Oregon State and Oregon.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
We got football, we got basketball.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
We're gonna do some free plays. Let's kick off the
week the right way. Thank you so much for joining us.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Hit the like button.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
Let's bring in Yanni, Yanni, you and I President Vice president.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
Of the Michael Morales Fan Club.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
Yeah, there's something What is it about coming off of
an awesome winning UFC Saturday, It just hits a little.

Speaker 3 (00:57):
Different differently, Bro, You're still right here.

Speaker 4 (01:00):
Good week.

Speaker 3 (01:00):
Like I said, I tell you when I win, turn
when I lose.

Speaker 5 (01:03):
I lost in college football last week so I was
excited about this week, and I ended up going fourteen
and six, gave twenty bets with the weekday game. Saturday
games went nice, profitable week, exactly what I expected. NFL
same thing, went five and one on four percent plays,
swept the Sunday night.

Speaker 3 (01:19):
Side in total.

Speaker 5 (01:20):
But I was more excited about what I did in MMA,
like because that is what cost me this entire year.

Speaker 3 (01:27):
I've had a losing MMA year and after.

Speaker 5 (01:30):
Four or five straight winning years, like, it's cost me
my profit almost for twenty twenty five. So I've been furious,
like we were talking about before we went on air.
But yeah, over the last couple events, got back to
myself and feeling it and woke up this morning excited
just because of that. You're absolutely right. Nothing bigger than

(01:50):
crushing the MMA card.

Speaker 2 (01:53):
It's it's MMA, and it's golf for me. My guys
know me. If I have a winning golf week, it's
a great week.

Speaker 1 (01:58):
If I don't bad mood until we get to the
next golf tournament. Yeap, All right, let's talk about Steamerport today.
We've got NFL, we got some opening lines, I know,
we got college basketball, we got NBA let's talk about
this NFL game real quick.

Speaker 2 (02:13):
Knock that out. Anything of note that we need to
look at.

Speaker 5 (02:17):
Yeah, I mean listen, after yesterday's games, the Sunday night
game was I thought it was gonna be so one sided.

Speaker 3 (02:26):
It didn't end up being that way.

Speaker 5 (02:27):
So I'm interested to see what kind of risk they
have coming into this Monday night football game because we're
not seeing line movement.

Speaker 3 (02:33):
Here's what I meant, Dallas.

Speaker 5 (02:35):
Look, I had opened it about minus three and a
half with the over fifty and a half.

Speaker 3 (02:39):
You could look on the board right now, there's still
three and.

Speaker 5 (02:41):
A half's out there, three and a half minus so
five or three minus one fifteen the total fifty and
a half or fifty, So not all that much movement.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
Even though the book makers were.

Speaker 5 (02:53):
Telling us at least, you know, leading into the weekend,
that they thought they'd have a lot of exposure on
the Dallas Cowboys, I just don't think that's the case
so far.

Speaker 3 (03:04):
And here's why.

Speaker 5 (03:05):
Like Dallas, what's to be excited about Dallas? They have
one win in their last four games. They're a team
that's got what three wins in nine games this year?
They're one in four on the road. They're playing on
the road again tonight, the road favorites. So again, it's
not a road team a favorite that you feel real

(03:27):
confident about, even though on paper you think Dallas is
the better team. It's not a matchup where you know,
the one team so much more superior.

Speaker 3 (03:36):
Than the other.

Speaker 5 (03:37):
They have one more win, that's it. And I think
that's where you're starting to see some of the even
recreational betters today saying, wait, maybe there's some value in
that live dog Vegas, because look over the last two games,
sure they didn't win, but they didn't get blown out either.
You know, they've lost their last two games by combined
four points, or they could have very easily won either

(03:58):
of those games. Other than the low out to Kansas
City and Indianapolis, they've played tight, you know, over the
last like two months. They're not getting blown out by margin.
And I think you're starting to see some of that
contrarian thinking, I'm going to fade the public and I'm
going to be on the Raiders tonight, and I think

(04:19):
the books are gonna end up with a lot more
balance than they expected in this Monday night game. As
far as the betting, syndicates. I haven't seen anything as
far as this esteem. You know, like last night, we
knew they were on Philadelphia, they were on the under
and the public was opposite that, which helped give us
even some more line value than we would have had.

(04:41):
But so far today that's just not the case on
Monday Night football. I haven't seen either in the accounts.
But again it's still early. But with it sitting around
that key number, you kind of think if they liked
the Raiders, they probably would have snatched up the three
and a half already. And if they liked the Cowboys,
there's threes out there. They could lay the three if
they wanted to. I could get you now, right now.
I could get you Dallas minus three or Raiders plus

(05:02):
three and a half. And I don't have anybody asking
for either. I could get you over fifty or under
fifty one even nobody's asking for either. So it'll be
interesting to see if if that changes and if the
public continues to play a little contrarian or is it
going to just all be on the Dallas Cowboys, because again,

(05:23):
the the not the sexiest favorite on the road.

Speaker 2 (05:27):
Especially Yeah, this to me, this is one of those
classic games. Listen.

Speaker 1 (05:31):
I'm always gonna talk player props, but this is a
player prop game. There's some really good player put there
with a little bit more certainty.

Speaker 2 (05:38):
So let's take a look at let's go to NBA.

Speaker 1 (05:40):
You got anything in the NBA. I do see some
pretty big line movements tonight.

Speaker 5 (05:44):
Yeah, yeah, And we have a couple couple of NBA
games that got hit already.

Speaker 3 (05:49):
Start off with five forty eight Detroit.

Speaker 5 (05:51):
Pistons minus eight and a half and nine, then again
they hit minus ten. You want to see that follow through.
I saw the same thing with the Raptors game five
to five four, and that's going opposite public for whatever reason.
The tickets that I'm seeing so far, again it's early
in the day, but seeing the public taking the Hornets

(06:15):
public verse sharps on that one. And then finally five
sixty the Denver Nuggets. This one's gotten away from us
a little bit. I don't know if there's a player
out because look ahead was like ten and a half.
The Overnights got hitded eleven and a half, twelve and
a half, then thirteen and a half again this morning,
So check as far as injury or players sitting, those

(06:37):
are some of the legit moves that I see some
of the more one sided. Real quickly, I'm seeing the
public heavy on the Miami Heat over the Knicks.

Speaker 3 (06:46):
They're laying the seventeen.

Speaker 5 (06:48):
With the Thunder, so like again, usually those games with
that big of a spread don't get much volume, but
that actually has the most tickets as of right now,
there's more tickets on the Thunder than any other team
with this book that I've access to. And then one
game that's just over there's not a single under bet,
and that is PACER's pistons, and that there, he's got

(07:11):
nothing but over action there. So if you're seeing a
slight move towards the over, it's probably public money related,
not sharp money related, because I didn't see any over
Pacers pistons in the accounts, and real quickly, that reminds
me yesterday we were in the steam room and I
told my subscribers what I'm seeing in this book. Okay,
this kid, this guy has a solid book. Couple hundred players.

(07:33):
They don't bet big like normal people. Thirty fifty hundred
dollars probably average bets on the Minnesota versus Chicago Bears
game yesterday, five minutes before kickoff, I told my subscribers
if I was going to fade, if I'm a bet
and just to fade the public, this is an automatic
because here's what my guy has right now.

Speaker 3 (07:54):
He had exactly six.

Speaker 5 (07:56):
Thousand, four hundred and thirty dollars bet on Minnesota, and
he had forty dollars, just one, forty dollars bet on Chicago.

Speaker 3 (08:07):
So think about it.

Speaker 5 (08:09):
For him took a mass over six grand worth of bets.
That means everyone he had was betting thirty fifty hundred
dollars on Minnesota and just one dude bet forty bucks
on Chicago. And again I'm not saying fade the public,
but there are some times you gotta pay attention to that.

Speaker 3 (08:28):
And here's what stuck out. The line didn't move, Like
why not go to three three and a half. If
you're that had me on one side, why are you
booking it?

Speaker 4 (08:36):
Why?

Speaker 5 (08:37):
Why are you okay with the risk. So something like
that you gotta pay attention to when when you see
all on one side like this with pacers pistons, it
gets too early, that could change between now and later.
But yeah, it's just funny when you because I know
everybody likes like.

Speaker 3 (08:53):
What do the books need? What do the books need?

Speaker 5 (08:55):
Usually you don't need anything but people to bet you're
getting eleven to ten. But sometimes you do see some
needs and it's it's funny when it works out that way.

Speaker 1 (09:04):
Putting that much money on JJ McCarthy is it's a choice. Yeah,
good one, I'm gonna do it. Actually, a breakdown of
that Denver and Chicago game. What happened was Chicago played
last night and it went to double overtime, so their
starters played a bazillion minutes. They had three starters that

(09:25):
played forty plus, including their center, and now he gets
to try and go up against Nicola jokicch after playing
all forty one minutes. So that's that's where this massive
line movie. It probably happened after that double overtime last
and they're on the road, like both games are on
the road, so it's just a brutal, brutal spot. As
far as the Thunder and the Pelicans, Zion has been

(09:47):
upgraded from out to questionable. And I know this is
going to sound crazy. I think they might be worse
off with him playing tonight, coming back.

Speaker 2 (09:56):
From a string he's got. He's not healthy.

Speaker 1 (09:59):
Jordan Pool is sitting out, and now you're gonna bring
them back against the best team in the NBA.

Speaker 2 (10:05):
This this spell's disaster. Imagine. That's kind of what's what
some of the people are looking at.

Speaker 3 (10:12):
So we'll see Mark the answer Mark's question.

Speaker 5 (10:14):
We start firing early in the week, brother, like we
may fire tonight tomorrow at the latest.

Speaker 3 (10:18):
I start firing. NFL and college football.

Speaker 5 (10:21):
You try to get out ahead of these lines, line movements,
you know, especially in college sports where you get a
lot more significant movements. NFL not as critical except for totals,
but college football.

Speaker 3 (10:33):
You can't wait till Saturday.

Speaker 5 (10:34):
If you're putting all your bets on Saturday, it's gonna
be tough to find a lot of good, good bets
to place.

Speaker 2 (10:41):
Let's see, are there any opening lines.

Speaker 1 (10:44):
That you got that you're yeah, yeah, A couple of NFL.

Speaker 5 (10:48):
Yeah, a couple of NFL that got hit immediately, New
England Patriots. And I'm not sure if it's a bet
on New England or a fade of Cincinnati. It's probably
a little bit of both. The wheels are coming off
on Cincinnati. I mean, the look ahead was four and
a half. They bumped it up the five during yesterday's
games that got hit. The five and a half, they

(11:08):
brought it out six and a half got hit and
now seven. That's why you're looking at sevens across the
board like they're blasting that Jacksonville. Jacksonville which also looked good.
We were on Jville yesterday. Even bet gave a four
percent on Jacksonville and instead of upgrading them to a
five percent, I just threw out a one percent added
on the money line and they came through for us.

Speaker 3 (11:29):
They got hit again. It's not up to that key
number of three.

Speaker 5 (11:32):
But the look ahead was one and you're now looking
at two and a half juice, which means three is coming.
And this one Indianapolis and Kansas City. What a big,
big game in Kansas City. Four and a half was
the look ahead. Okay, they brought out minus four not
high enough, three and a half not I mean too

(11:52):
high down to three. So a lot of love early
from the sharps on the Indianapolis Colts over Kansas City
and then that Philadelphia, and it'll be interesting based on
what Dallas does. But here's what's wild Philadelphia. The look
ahead was minus six. Philly gets it done. Beats who
I had is the best power rated team. Detroit does

(12:15):
it on primetime television, and the lookout was five and a.

Speaker 3 (12:19):
Half and we're now looking at four and a half.
That almost never happens.

Speaker 5 (12:23):
Now, I got to look into the injury report and
see did fourteen you know starters get destroyed yesterday or
or you know, just some players, key players get hurt
or something. I'm not sure, but that just is a rarity.
That's why I'm glad you said let's talk NFL real quickly.
Some of these look aheads that got hit because you
would usually see the opposite happen, like what happens today.

(12:44):
If Dallas looks like if Dallas loses to the Raiders,
that line's got to move back up right.

Speaker 3 (12:48):
Philly beats Detroit, Dallas loses the Raiders.

Speaker 5 (12:51):
But then if Dallas goes out there and looks great,
this line makes sense. So I don't know, is this
anticipation of Dallas going out there and looking great to night,
because you almost never see that. Philly got the job done,
they covered, they beat Detroit on TV and they're discounted
this morning.

Speaker 3 (13:07):
Yeah, that that sticks out a lot.

Speaker 2 (13:10):
Anything in hockey tonight. No, we've got a good slate
of hockey.

Speaker 1 (13:13):
I've been not really paying attention to any money lines,
just focusing.

Speaker 3 (13:16):
On I know, I know.

Speaker 5 (13:17):
Let me tell you where I see action real quickly.
I haven't seen any we haven't bet anything in the accounts.
But here's what sticks out a lot.

Speaker 3 (13:25):
Where was that?

Speaker 5 (13:27):
Obviously they're gonna bet that fit. Oh the dog, the
one dog, La, La, La La. They're betting La, and
this in hockey has done really well. When I see
the recreational accounts on the dog, it never turns not never,
it doesn't turn out well very much in hockey. When
they're loving these dogs, and that one really sticks out.

(13:47):
They are liking La a lot. And then they're liking
Anaheim also, and the Utah line's moving up, so you're
seeing one of those reverse line movement situations.

Speaker 3 (13:57):
I got to look into that tour. So La and
Anaheim the two heaviest bet and both of those look
like dogs. Like I said, long term, that has not
been a recipe for success in NHL.

Speaker 1 (14:10):
Yeah, Anaheim has been the darling of the start to
the NHL season, just completely outperforming. I'm not surprised public
has tried to jump on on Anaheim and catch a
falling knife knife.

Speaker 2 (14:21):
So do you have anything in college basketball?

Speaker 5 (14:23):
Before we let you go, I'll give you a couple
of college basketball moves.

Speaker 3 (14:26):
I just bet this morning.

Speaker 5 (14:28):
College of Charleston eight oh four minus six and six
and a half eight eleven, Tulsa from plus thirteen down
the plus eleven.

Speaker 3 (14:37):
Eight sixty two or eighty two, the NC.

Speaker 5 (14:40):
State minus ten and a half and eleven, so that
NC State minus ten and a half eleven, and then
finally eight twenty two you see Santa Barbara minus two
and two and a half. So that's College of Charleston, Tulsa,
NC State, and Santa Barbara. All legit moves already hit.

Speaker 2 (14:55):
All right, it's great Monday. What do you have up
for every days?

Speaker 4 (14:58):
Yes it is.

Speaker 3 (14:59):
Uh package is going up in the next thirty minutes.

Speaker 5 (15:02):
Confirmed it right before I got on I think now
fourteen and four on Sunday night, Monday night football games
dating back a couple months.

Speaker 3 (15:11):
I like this game.

Speaker 5 (15:12):
Got the confirmation that play will be up in thirty minutes.
Then we'll prepare for this week's college football and NFL.
But also you'll have college basketball tonight NBA. If I'm
able to confirm with college basketball for sure, and yeah,
big week ahead, man, great, great way to end the
month and end the year with all the Bowl games
coming up, just a good time to get involved.

Speaker 3 (15:34):
So best of luck to everyone.

Speaker 2 (15:36):
All Right, Yanni and the Greek, thank you so much
for joining us. Let's get the week started off right. Yeah,
we just missed it.

Speaker 1 (15:43):
So what Yannie was saying is we don't have anything confirmed.
So when he doesn't get confirmation, it's not going to
be an official bet from the syndicates that he works on.
And it's particularly dangerous to look at money and bets
and actually on the totals because you have no idea
if somebody's manipulating the line or what you see that

(16:04):
happening in MMA all the time. You see a line
move and you say, oh man, everyone must like this guy,
and then all of a sudden it's flying the other
way on the day of So just be careful about
looking at a percentage of money and bets on the over.

Speaker 2 (16:18):
In certain games. So let's do it all around the world.
Let's do some free plays.

Speaker 1 (16:23):
Let's get us started here with the game tonight. Pretty
good prop here CD lamb over twenty six and a
half on his longest catch. He's gone over in every
game except the Chicago game where he got hurt, and
the Raiders have given up at least one pass per
play over this total in every game.

Speaker 2 (16:39):
Except the Titans.

Speaker 1 (16:40):
I feel like the Titans are one of those teams
where that's just gonna apply every single like every week,
it's gonna be like, oh, this team to accept the Titans,
We'll go to the NBA Sarah Merrill over ten and
a half points. I'm not really sure about this ten
and a half number. They've been putting him out at
eleven and a half, and we get a lower line here.
Garland is out and Sam Merril's gone over in six

(17:02):
out of eight games with Garland out of the lineup.

Speaker 2 (17:04):
He has played Milwaukee earlier this year with.

Speaker 1 (17:06):
A similar lineup, he had seventeen and Milwaukee gives up
twenty six point four points to shooting guards. And then
we'll go to the seventy six ers and the Clippers.
Andre Drummond over eleven and a half points. Last four
games without Embiid in the lineup, he's averaging over thirteen points. Clippers,
they allowed twenty five point nine points to centers. It

(17:27):
is absolutely insane. How bad Zubach has been on defense.
What Jokics did to him the other night was was
not fair. So those are your free plays here. I
would also like to sit here and say that me
not making all of us enough money off of the
Michael Wilson receiving prop and Dakas to win by finish

(17:49):
is actually I should actually be arrested. Me not making
everyone enough money is actually worthy to be put on
trial in front of a jury of my peers because
those were so automatic and such easy cashes, and I
did not do my job, and I am kicking myself.
You know, you're never gonna be mad at yourself for
a win, but when you don't win enough just irks

(18:09):
irks you. Let's bring in Bill see if he has
that same feeling.

Speaker 2 (18:14):
Bill.

Speaker 1 (18:15):
Yeah, but you're just one of those plays where you're like,
I didn't make enough on that play.

Speaker 2 (18:20):
I was talking about Michael Wilson over.

Speaker 1 (18:22):
I sat here and I was like forty six and
a half yards over on Michael Wilson. This line is
completely wrong. I think you had like one hundred and
fifty plus. So I'm sitting here with the winning ticket,
and yet I'm yet I'm upset.

Speaker 2 (18:33):
Ever happened to you?

Speaker 6 (18:36):
Yeah, sure of course you could be a Monday Morning
quarterback and a lot of things and saying should have
bet more, or should have bet this, should have bet that.

Speaker 4 (18:43):
But I kind of don't really feel that way because
I bet a lot.

Speaker 2 (18:47):
I try.

Speaker 6 (18:48):
I try to bet max bets here in Vegas on props.
It's pretty tough though, because you only have certain places.
I'm not in jurisdictions where you have the Draft Kings,
Fandel the maybe the other sports books of the world
that people have, very lucky to have those, but a
lot of props we have bet MGM here.

Speaker 4 (19:07):
Seizers. I'm not allowed to play. I got thrown out
for winning, but it doesn't matter. They can't keep me
out of there.

Speaker 6 (19:14):
To be honest with you, it's so stupid for people
out and I easily can get back in through someone else.
But anyway, so, yeah, we know how the options that
most of the country has as far as props, so
Westgate Circa.

Speaker 4 (19:27):
You know, they take a dime each. You're very good
to me, but so.

Speaker 6 (19:31):
I'm usually getting down the most I can get when
it comes to props. I'm betting max max amount of
money so I don't have that problem. I said I
should have bet more. I only say I wish I
could bet more.

Speaker 4 (19:41):
So yeah, but no.

Speaker 6 (19:43):
Props are a big part of my fourth This is
what I do again, another winning week wager talk my
assistant here. I knew we won, I just didn't know
what He's just sent me over plus thirteen point four
units for the week. You know, there's some of these, uh,
some of these guys out there on social media that

(20:03):
want to rip.

Speaker 4 (20:05):
Everybody and then and and they don't even know how to.

Speaker 6 (20:07):
They don't even realize that we're betting, you know, three
or four times more on something a prop than a
side and they just want to say, oh, they put
everything together and go after you.

Speaker 4 (20:17):
Of course they're under anonymity.

Speaker 6 (20:19):
They never want to come and talk to me in person,
or talk to anybody in person, because that's their job.
Their job is to be under around in them because
they wish they were winning betters themselves.

Speaker 4 (20:27):
They're unhappy with their lives. There's so many misplaced rage.
It happens. I get it, I get it.

Speaker 6 (20:32):
People are upset. Holiday time coming. People, uh get to
get down and depressed and upset and and and decide
to go to Twitter and andwhere else to you know,
take it out on people. But it happens though too.
I'm not a holiday I'll be honest with you. Since
my mother died, my parents, it's just not the same.
We never knew that it was the glue that held

(20:53):
everyone together. We thought things were going to last forever, Andy,
We thought things were going to be the same forever.

Speaker 4 (20:59):
We never knew that things were going to change. That's
the way it was gonna be the day, end of
the time. But things change, and I do.

Speaker 6 (21:06):
I do feel for people also, but not not for
the people that I want to post on their animity,
but I feel for people in general.

Speaker 4 (21:15):
Holiday time it's not not the best time for a
lot of people.

Speaker 6 (21:17):
We bring so much stress on ourselves too, you know,
preparing things, getting things ready and being that that that
glue that holds the family together.

Speaker 4 (21:26):
I realize how much stress. You know.

Speaker 6 (21:27):
My od an old fashioned Italian mom, she you know,
had to make sure everything was absolutely perfect, and she
terrorized my father, terrorized everybody.

Speaker 4 (21:36):
And I say terrorized, that's not the right word. She
just wanted to make sure things were right.

Speaker 6 (21:41):
So anyway, holiday time coming up, I stay in town
here in Vegas, I am stepping out for a charity
event for a couple of days.

Speaker 4 (21:51):
But as far as that goes, I really don't.

Speaker 6 (21:54):
I used to travel all the time when Jersey was
taking my bets, when I was able to go into
Atlantic City, and I had so many different places along
that boardwalk in Atlantic City to bed on. Right at
the beginning when when Pastor was repealed, for those first
two three years, that was great. I went there for
three months out of the year. I haven't been back
in a year. That's unbelievable. I went for three runs

(22:16):
even four months out of the years. But my summer's
in Jersey. Different timing now different, we're in different times
we're in. I was just interviewed by Chicago newspaper. Uh.
He asked me about the reversal, the reversal paps, So
what did I feel. He was shocked at my answers
that I probably wish it wasn't done. I was gonna

(22:37):
be so happy and we were gonna make some and
I did make a lot of money.

Speaker 4 (22:40):
In the beginning.

Speaker 6 (22:41):
Bonuses were ridiculous, sign up bonuses, lots of opportunities when
the sports books actually took winners and used the information.
But now you know, everyone throws you out. All those
new sports books kind of limit you or I throw
you out. So it's upsetting to someone like myself because

(23:01):
I thought it was gonna be great, But now thinking
about it, I have that responsible gambling aspect to me,
And let me tell you, it's hurting a lot of people.
There's a lot of closet gambling going on, especially in
the seven states that allow online casino games.

Speaker 4 (23:16):
People are playing blackjack.

Speaker 6 (23:18):
And slot machines, and you know, the kids go to
bed and the husband's firing on basketball or football in
the other room.

Speaker 4 (23:26):
What's the wife's doing. She's going to the bedroom under
the covers playing slots.

Speaker 6 (23:30):
There's a lot of closet really oh yeah, oh yeah,
oh yeah, yeah No. It really bothers me that this
is going on and not being dealt with, not being
talked about with a lot of places, because listen, I
know the human I know the human makeup to what
we're made up of.

Speaker 4 (23:49):
I know what happened.

Speaker 6 (23:50):
So when you throw that little gambling in this mix,
imagine growing up where I did, New York, New Jersey,
we had so many vices, drinking drugs, women lottery casinos.

Speaker 4 (24:02):
Yeah, now you want Now you want to give them
online blackjack. Now you want to give them online slot machines.
Let me just tell you.

Speaker 6 (24:11):
The interview I gave out, I'm gonna retweet it. I
was very very blunt and very very frank about things.
You know, it hurt us here in Nevada. That's right,
it hurt us here in Nevada being an advantaged sports better.
These new companies come into the country and the lines
being so much wider, and you know, the money lines.
So now the typical money line I'm used to is

(24:32):
minus one forty come back a dollar twenty here in Vegas,
and these new companies were minus a dollar forty come
back even It's crazy. Why because all these new areas,
of these new jurisdictions, the new genre, the kids that
are are eighteen, nineteen, twenty twenty one.

Speaker 4 (24:49):
Oh I can do this. I watch ESPN. They're just
used to. Oh that's the way it is, Okay. I
didn't know any better. They never been to Vegas.

Speaker 6 (24:56):
They didn't never knew about gambling, the odds, the real odds.
I can go off on TANGI until you see people.

Speaker 1 (25:01):
Sorry, it's no it's fine, let's uh, it's a story
for another day. I've I've heard ads. I'm not even
gonna mention the casino, and I'm just like, how is
this legal? It's got like celebrities endorsing it, and celebrities
are the investors that I actually can't really believe. I
can't believe that that's allowed. But whatever, let's talk NBA.

(25:21):
Let's let's let's talk and give me a profit tonight.
We got a lot of good games to choose from,
a kind of props.

Speaker 6 (25:27):
Look said something that didn't finish it though? How it
hurt us in Vegas here? Well, the sportsbooks here in
town said, well, hey, those companies are charging a dollar
thirty five dollars fifty for teachers.

Speaker 4 (25:38):
Let's let us do that.

Speaker 6 (25:39):
We used to have dollar twenty dollars teasers here and
now the money lines are even wider.

Speaker 4 (25:44):
I don't have one ten cent baseball shop. Why Why?

Speaker 6 (25:49):
Because of the new companies that are in the other jurisdictions,
they're getting away with it.

Speaker 4 (25:54):
They're making a ton of money. Vegas has decided, oh,
let's do the same thing. Give them no choice.

Speaker 6 (25:59):
They gotta lay at dollar thirty and come back a
dollar thirty and a dollar ten.

Speaker 4 (26:03):
That's just the way it is.

Speaker 6 (26:05):
Well, there is a there is a way. Don't even
do it anymore, don't even bed it. I mean, find
find a local guy, all right now, NBA prop. I
have an NBA prop tonight, Andre Drummond. Let me make
sure I hate think about a bad line, thank god. Okay,
under twelve and a half good?

Speaker 4 (26:21):
All right?

Speaker 6 (26:21):
Under under twelve and a half rebounds minus a dollar
fifteen minus the dollars twenty is fine. I have two
different lines in front of me. So he's been averaging
ten and a half points without him b but tonight
he's in a tough matchup with the Clippers here second
lowest pace in the league. The backup center of Barlow

(26:43):
is back to the six Ers tonight. Drumming has a
chance to get in some foul trouble here Clippers. He's
up against Zoo back tonight. So I think there, you know,
hopefully it gets some Like I said, you can get
in some foul trouble.

Speaker 4 (26:57):
It draws a lot of fouls in the paint.

Speaker 6 (27:00):
Under twelve and a half minus twenty and minus fifteen,
two different sites I'm looking at. So there's a prop
for tonight. Having good weeks here Waiger talk like I said,
if people know how to grade it properly, and if
you're betting more on the props like you're supposed to,
and betting more on certain things like you're supposed to.
Plus thirteen point four units last thirteen point four units

(27:22):
last week and again props overall thirteen and ten. College
football is really good last week seven and one, but
overall in general. Yeah, that's why you have to be
an android and everything. You have to play everything. You
have to have outs, which I'm sure you do. If
you have DraftKings, Vandel, Caesars, Bet MGM.

Speaker 4 (27:43):
I can go on and on.

Speaker 6 (27:45):
They have player props on positions, and we give out
obtainable lines. I can pad my record and have a
much better record if I give out a line like
some people do they send out I see these text
measures they send out. Drummond under twelve and a half
at hard rock. But if you don't have hard rock,
how can you grade on hard rock? You have to

(28:07):
grade in an abtainable line.

Speaker 4 (28:08):
I don't do that. I'm giving you enoughtainable line the
way it works.

Speaker 1 (28:12):
Any thoughts on Monday Night football. I love props in
this game tonight. I think this is a This is
the exact opposite of last night. Last night was under
his glore. I think tonight could be over his glore.

Speaker 4 (28:23):
Yeah, no, I don't have anything yet, but I'm sure
I will.

Speaker 3 (28:27):
I'll have a prop up.

Speaker 6 (28:29):
And it's just you know, it's Monday night football. It's
a very efficient line. It's been up there all week
unless you're living in Vegas.

Speaker 4 (28:35):
Let make me blunts. Unless you're living in Vegas.

Speaker 6 (28:38):
Or jurisdiction, and it has If you find your weak
sports books, I say week, you're slower moving sports books.

Speaker 4 (28:45):
Like last night.

Speaker 6 (28:46):
The win here in town was begging you to take
the Eagles. They had someone come in from the casino,
come in and bet a lot of money on Detroit.
Therefore they have to have I mean it was a scalp.
It was an absolute scalp. They had mine two and
a half even you could have took plus two and
a half plus five.

Speaker 4 (29:04):
It was a scout. The money line was minus one thirty.

Speaker 6 (29:07):
There was not even one money line anywhere minus you
can minus one forty.

Speaker 4 (29:12):
It was minus one thirty then minus one thirty.

Speaker 6 (29:14):
Five, begging for So that's good if you come to town,
you want to make sure you check the lines out
of the wind stations and the coast properties.

Speaker 4 (29:23):
You want to make well. I want to throw the
coasts in there.

Speaker 6 (29:25):
They have the fan duel line, which is I think
fandels are pretty they have sharping up since they came
to the country here, So you want to make sure
you have those two places. Though, it's very important to
have the local pasina. I think, like I said, stations
and when pretty slow moving and sometimes dependent on the
what action they get based.

Speaker 4 (29:44):
On the casinos there. So that's about it and look
forward to seeing you guys next week.

Speaker 6 (29:51):
Have a good week here with what we have up
over on wager talk, like I always say, guys should
lock me up. Lock me up throughout the super Bowl.
Lock me up for a three month. You got all
the props you get all the week. The college basketball
now starting a roll, and props on NBA. You know,
of course, you can go on a thirty nine dollars
program or something where you know, any one day anyone

(30:13):
could do anything. So I would say minimum a week,
see how it goes, see how I do like I
just said, plus thirteen point four. If you would have
listened to me last week when I said it plus
thirteen point four units just based on the bank roll.

Speaker 4 (30:26):
That's important too.

Speaker 6 (30:27):
You can't go off half cocked and put something on
a Sunday in that game or a Monday in that
game and go crazy just because you lost. Now, you
wouldn't have lost, followed me for the week, but maybe
you lose.

Speaker 4 (30:36):
On your own stuff. I never forget.

Speaker 6 (30:38):
I went thirty six and eight one month in college basketball,
and I lost three clients. I told my assistant, I
want all three of their emails. I asked all three
what happened? How can you quit now? Now that I
usually I never do that.

Speaker 4 (30:51):
It's just one of the other reasons. Sure enough.

Speaker 6 (30:53):
The reasons are they put everything in parlays, total sucker bets.
They so they don't realize how much what they're doing
by betting parlays. Their wife told them to stop gambling
because they're gambling on other stuff. The guy was very honest.
He's going to the racetrack every night. I mean, these
guys all the excuses of other one guys that I
didn't even know you won. What he said, Yeah, I
just I fire on a lot of different things. I

(31:14):
thought maybe you won. But if you can't realize that,
if you can't win, when I'm going thirty six and eight,
get out, brother, do something else.

Speaker 4 (31:22):
Go roller skating, go fishing, do something.

Speaker 2 (31:27):
I've had that happen before.

Speaker 3 (31:29):
It's like four and one.

Speaker 2 (31:30):
How'd you lose while I parlayed all of them together?

Speaker 4 (31:32):
You're like, oh, no, farways, you can't win.

Speaker 6 (31:35):
Bet Parley sports books have sixty to seventy percent of
their profit they report on parlays.

Speaker 4 (31:41):
I know they look fun.

Speaker 6 (31:42):
All the people on TikTok and Twitter and Instagram would
have broad on each shoulder and a nice fancy car
and the money, the bricks, the money because they hit
their ten dollars parlay to win sixty thousand.

Speaker 4 (31:53):
Trust me, trust me, you're not hitting that. Forget about it.
You trace hup right up, pipe dream. All right, that's it.

Speaker 2 (31:58):
I'm done, crack man. Everyone always bringing the heat. Thank you, Bill.
Can't wait to talk to you again next Monday. Good luck.

Speaker 7 (32:06):
All right.

Speaker 1 (32:06):
We have a couple of NFL bets up for Monday night.
These are props and we've got two of them. Just
was going to fire on one, then I kept staring
at the other.

Speaker 2 (32:14):
One said no, no, no, this is worthy.

Speaker 1 (32:16):
So we got two best bets that are up seventeen
and ten on primetime games this year, so primetime games.

Speaker 2 (32:21):
Continue to hit at a good rate.

Speaker 1 (32:23):
We've also got NBA and NHL props setter up. I
believe there's three of them that are up. Probably going
to be a fourth one coming up this afternoon once
I get some injury report again.

Speaker 2 (32:32):
Seven days.

Speaker 1 (32:32):
That special went over, so well, we're gonna run it
for another couple of weeks. It's seven days of NBA
and NHL props again. One night I could win and
I could lose. Give me seven days.

Speaker 2 (32:43):
You see how we You see how we handle the
props markets. You see all right up.

Speaker 1 (32:47):
You see that we tend to kind of gravitate towards
the same guys for stretches of time.

Speaker 2 (32:51):
Hope to catch those streaks.

Speaker 1 (32:52):
Get a four and one, five and two type of
streak going. So seven days, it's only sixty nine dollars
if you just want something for tonight, Monday Night best
bets are up, and yeah, we're up fifty units in November.
Crush in November, loving it. Let's talk about NFL Week eleven.
Let's do some questions that we may have coming out
of Week eleven. Are the Chiefs gonna make the playoffs?

(33:15):
Do you see their percentage to make the playoffs if
they if they lost that game?

Speaker 2 (33:19):
Yikes? And now they get the Colts rot Row raggy.
That's not good.

Speaker 5 (33:24):
Uh?

Speaker 2 (33:25):
Where the Vikings gonna lose?

Speaker 6 (33:27):
Lose?

Speaker 1 (33:27):
Situation with Donald and McCarthy, like, did it turn out?
It was just like, you know what, we can keep
Donald who will just blow it in the biggest game,
and then we have JJ McCarthy who's looks really awful.
I'm gonna talk about the Chargers here in a second
with day Dan. Is Joe Alt really that much of
a difference.

Speaker 2 (33:44):
Maker this team?

Speaker 1 (33:45):
This team went from possibly winning the division to cannot
get out of their own way with one offensive lineman?

Speaker 2 (33:53):
Is he really that good? The Chargers are inept on
offense without him? It's it's it's really bizarre.

Speaker 1 (34:00):
And then let me know in the chat here I'll
ask you to it as well, Dan, what seven win
team do you least believe in?

Speaker 2 (34:07):
These are the teams with seven wins?

Speaker 1 (34:08):
You got the Bills, the Chargers, the Bears, the Seahawks,
and the forty nine ers to me, it's a really
obvious one. I'll be interested to see what you guys
think of in the chat. What seven win team do
you believe in the least? All right, So those are
Week eleven questions. Let's go to some quick Where did
the books win? Where did the public win? Really wasn't

(34:30):
a whole lot of consensus out there.

Speaker 2 (34:32):
Where do the books win?

Speaker 1 (34:33):
The Ravens didn't quite get there, the Green Bay and
the Giants game under not get there?

Speaker 2 (34:39):
And where the public won?

Speaker 1 (34:40):
They went heavy heavy on that under in the Miami
Washington that was no sweat and the forty nine ers
minus the points. So but again, not a whole lot
of big time consensus plays this week. And then we
go to the prop markets and fantasy football winners and losers.
Rock Purty gotta say Brock Purty looked really good. George

(35:03):
Kittle along with that, Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson and
Trey McBride putting up video game esque numbers there. Josh
Allen of course with a massive six touchdown game. Sean
Tucker for the Bucks had a huge game, Bryce Young
and Ted McMillan.

Speaker 2 (35:18):
That's their best game of the year as.

Speaker 1 (35:20):
Far as stats go, and Travis Kelcey continues to get
it done in Jean Robinson may be getting a lot
of work in the next coming weeks. Michael Pennix looks
like he may be done for the year. Drake London
is out for at least a week. We go to
the Losers. Lamar Jackson, is this guy healthy? What's going on?
His numbers are just not there? Sam Donald with foreigner

(35:40):
receptions that was terrible. Justin Herbert and the Chargers were terrible.
Jamar Chase, Boy, did he screw it all up for
anybody that believed in him yesterday? I continue to say,
Justin Jefferson, his stats are not going to look good.
With McCarthy as a quarterback, Woody Marx had a great matchup.

Speaker 2 (35:55):
He kind of.

Speaker 1 (35:57):
He wasn't awful, but he wasn't that good. And then
the Falcons passing game is now completely blown to smitherings
h Drake London, who's injured, Kirk Cousin is gonna have
to step in and beat quarterback and Dan can I
say outdoors Jared Goff? Outdoors, Jared Goff looked truly awful. Dan,
would you like to come in and brag about the

(36:18):
Chargers h Jags.

Speaker 8 (36:20):
That was outdoor.

Speaker 9 (36:22):
Well, when when you see Jared Goff trotting out of
the tunnel and he's wearing sleeves and double gloves, it
doesn't exactly inspire confidence of his his abilities in the outdoor.

Speaker 8 (36:33):
But it's so bad. The Eagles certainly didn't make it
easy for him, man, I mean, there wasn't a clean
pocket on what you know, four or five plays last night.
Defense was just flying around. So it's easy to say, yeah,
it was just golf in the weather.

Speaker 9 (36:49):
It's it's it's more, I think holistic to look at
what Vic Pangeo's defense has done to all of these teams.

Speaker 8 (36:57):
You know, it's it's it's happened week after week after
and whether it's weather, whether.

Speaker 9 (37:02):
It's not, the one constant is Vic Fangio and that defense,
since adding Jalen Phillips, has.

Speaker 8 (37:07):
Finally cracked that pass rush that they were lacking for
the last defense.

Speaker 9 (37:12):
And thank god they have a good defense, Andy, because
the offense is equally as as ugly as the defense
is beautiful.

Speaker 1 (37:20):
Sure, the tangoing cashes, the Philadelphia tango and cashes again,
it was horrible to watch and I had to watch
every second of it. I was just blown away by it.
But you're right, man, your defense, the eye test, that's.

Speaker 2 (37:32):
I don't I don't think.

Speaker 8 (37:33):
I mean, I don't think it's horrible to watch.

Speaker 9 (37:35):
I think there's just as much fun when you're watching
a good, dominant defense.

Speaker 8 (37:41):
And as an Eagles fan, this reminds.

Speaker 9 (37:43):
But here's the thing is prop betting, overs and fantasy
football has warped everyone's mind that no one likes defensive
football games anymore if there's not high scoring. Everybody Monday
Morning Quarterbacks says this game was just awful to watch,
and I completely disagree.

Speaker 8 (37:59):
I think there is there's value in good defense.

Speaker 4 (38:03):
So watching the.

Speaker 1 (38:05):
Difference last night between the two units was Jared Goff
was throwing incomplete passes to wide receivers who were covered.
Jalen Hurts was throwing incomplete passes do wide receivers who
had a step or two on passes that should have
been in complete.

Speaker 2 (38:20):
There were a lot of drops.

Speaker 9 (38:21):
Typically with forty mile per hour wind gusts, you're gonna
see some fluctuation on passes. Uh, you know, so that's
that's gonna happen. Well, you know what thing win matters
when you're throwing deep balls.

Speaker 1 (38:35):
That stop throwing the deep ball if you don't like
fluctuations and the deep ball.

Speaker 4 (38:41):
It's very fair.

Speaker 9 (38:42):
I mean, it would also help if DeVante Smith didn't
have an uncharacteristically bad game. Bunch of drops out of him,
Dallas Goddard, a bunch of drops out of him. Uh,
Lane Johnson goes down. So the offensive line wasn't quite there.
But yes, it's let's focus on the bad passes from
Jalen Hurts and not the one where he avoids the
sack and the end zone, rolls out to his right,

(39:02):
floats it over a defender into a perfect window and
jo Han dots and when there's a safety over the top.

Speaker 2 (39:07):
But great, it was a great play.

Speaker 9 (39:10):
It was.

Speaker 2 (39:10):
It was a great play.

Speaker 1 (39:12):
So Dan and I are gonna go over tomorrow. Are
before season predictions for season win totals. We we we
we had to do every single team, so we made.

Speaker 2 (39:25):
It very clear. Heyes, a lot of these are not bets.
Some of them are hilarious. Some of them are just
laugh out loud.

Speaker 1 (39:31):
So Dan, I would have get, don't tell me what
it is, save it your biggest takeaway from our season
wins Tomorrow I'll give you my biggest takeaway, and we'll
see if we look like that on the same thing.
Because there are just some there are some hilarious ones
where you look like a complete ass.

Speaker 2 (39:45):
You're like hopp.

Speaker 8 (39:49):
Thirty two teams season win totals.

Speaker 9 (39:51):
If you go thirty two and oh you should have
entered that contest at the at the West Gate where
you pick every one of them.

Speaker 8 (39:58):
You're not gonna get every one of them right.

Speaker 9 (39:59):
And answer your question, Andy, I think this was a
terrific question, and we want to get Steve Merrill's thoughts
on this one. He's coming up next, the last seven
win team that you know, I have the least belief in.
I get it, the Bears are winning, you know what
I mean. But at the end of the day, that
win yesterday had a lot more to do with how

(40:19):
bad JJ McCarthy was than how well prepared the Bears were.
If that was even a somewhat competent quarterback under center,
that actually probably not only does it not end up
as a Bears win, you're seeing that as a potential
double digit loss. If you watched that game and the Seahawks,
like I know, that's gonna be the big one because
of how awful Donald looked, But we already knew that

(40:40):
Donald at some point was going to turn back into
a pumpkin. So I think their defense is still strong
enough and they have enough playmakers around that offense that
I don't think the bottom is quite falling out on
the Seahawks just because we got a vintage Sam Darnold game.
But that's probably gonna be a popular pick. So for me,
sorry to my friend John Hoagland and the and the
Eagles Bears alliance that has been fun on Twitter U

(41:03):
three and oh for the Bears against the the NFC
East and three and oh against the NFC North for
the Philadelphia Eagles.

Speaker 8 (41:11):
So the Bears an Eagles alliance. I'm not so sure
how much I believe in the Bears.

Speaker 1 (41:16):
And I'm i I actually land on the same team
it was between the Chargers and the Bears. And then
you just look at the wins from the Bears and
you're just going, come on, this is this has got
getting creamed in the first round of the playoffs like this,
this this has yeah, this is them getting.

Speaker 9 (41:34):
And the first honorable mention for me because they're not
a seven win team, They're even better than that New
England Patriots are losing the first round of the playoffs.
That will be one of my more sizeable bets is
that the New England Patriots will be losing the first
round of the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (41:48):
I love it, Paz says, I'm becoming a believer in
the Bears. Don't do it, Bears come back.

Speaker 2 (41:57):
No, don't go to the dark side. All right, let's
bring it.

Speaker 1 (42:02):
Steve Merrill, Steve Merrill, never on the dark side, Steve,
how are you today doing well?

Speaker 7 (42:10):
Yeah? We've seen the NFL well three and oh last
Sunday two and on yesterday and then a four to
one on Saturday at college football. So been picking our
spots and I hope you guys did not have the
overseason wins for not my Washington commanders. Who did you
guys have in that? Did you have under I? I
don't recall that episode.

Speaker 2 (42:28):
I'll look I'll look it up and see it.

Speaker 7 (42:30):
Wasn't a strong opinion.

Speaker 9 (42:32):
So as I was under both under on both under anders,
there's this reasoning for me, Steve, was I thought they
I didn't think they would be this bad. And sure
there's like injuries that are part of it, but because
of how much they exceeded expectations last year, there was
no possible way that they could not under exceed expectations
this year.

Speaker 7 (42:51):
Well, yeah, I mean that, as you guys know, that
was my one season wins total I've released in like
the last five years to clients and officially has cashed
all ready under nine and a half. There might have
been some nines out there, which means they have to
run the table if you got plus money, which is
actually an even better bet. I wish i'd had that,
but yeah, under nine and a half was the play,
and they lost in overtime, so it has now officially cashed,

(43:14):
even though they win every game remaining. So and it's funny.
You know, Dan mentioned, you know, the jury part, but
as you know, Andy, that was part of the handicaps.
I thought Jayden Daniels was a high risk to be
injured this year, and that was even more upside to
the downside, if you will, with the commanders. And by
the way, that was the Dolphins were very public yesterday
at minus two and a half and they covered in overtime,
winning by three. Last week, the culture a very public

(43:36):
play at six mostly six and a halves over in
Germany and they went by six and overtime, So it's
good to see that the fix is in even over
in Europe. There we go, oh, don't go there.

Speaker 1 (43:49):
That's the worst part about the betting scandal, not that
people lost money and every but not any time many
one that is international fixed, it's fixed.

Speaker 2 (43:57):
So did that fight look fixed? That game looked fax?

Speaker 1 (44:00):
All right, let's talk about a game that's not fixed.
Let's talk Cowboys and Raiders. I think this game is
going to be weirdly exciting, like in just what are
those kind of car crashes? You can't take your eyes
off of it? How do you break down this Cowboys
and Raiders seam? There's a lot of variables in this game.

Speaker 7 (44:17):
Yeah, I think it'll be exciting, actually because I think
there'll be some points. First of all, the Cowboys. There
were five very public plays this week, and I just
mentioned the public win two and two on Sunday would
have been one in three had the Dolphins not covered
in overtime. But by the way the other public plays.
The most public play of the week was the forty
nine Ers easy win. Last week it was the Lions
easy win. So just blindly fad the most public play

(44:38):
is not a great strategy, and I rarely do because
you're usually on a really ugly team like the Commanders
last week. So I just don't like Cardinals this week.
The other public plays, though, by the way, the Jag
the Chargers were very public. I had a free play
for everybody on my side at wager talk dot com
on the Jags easy winner there. Also, I'm checking my
list here the Chargers Detroit. We faded Detroit Sunday night.

(44:59):
How could I forget that that was the public dog
of the week. We had the Eagles last night as
a client best bet as well. The fifth public play
this week though, is the Cowboys tonight. But as I
said in my Fade the Public video, we don't just
blindly fade the public. And I'm not in a hurry
to fade Dallas in this spot because I think it's
actually a pretty good situation for the Cowboys off back
to back losses and a bye week. So this is

(45:20):
a spot where I usually look to play the better team,
and the Cowboys are probably the better team. But I
will say, if you're going to play Dallas, you gotta
get minus three and lay the extra juice minus one
twenty minus one twenty five. If you like the Raiders,
there's a lot of three and a half flats available.
There's about an eight to nine percent chance Dallas wins
by exactly three points tonight. Cowboys minus three or Raiders
plus three a half is how you played. I prefer

(45:41):
to have Dallas minus three, but I think the better
play in this game is actually the total, and I
like the over fifty. Now, when I did my standalone
video a few days ago for this game here on
wager Talk TV, it was around forty nine and a half.
Fifty is what we call a dead number, so there's
still value. Fifty one is the key number. About three
percent of games are going to land exactly on fifty
one points. In one percent of the time is they're
going to hit fifty or fifty two for that matter.

(46:04):
Get briefly opened at fifty one came down a bit.
I don't agree with that move. I mentioned how Dallas
is coming off back to back losses and they had
the bye week. I think that's good for the offense
because they had one of their worst offensive games of
the season and that Monday night loss against the Cardinals
two weeks ago, and if you recall Dallas was actually
a very public play in that I came here on
the show and I gave you Arizona as a live
dog for the free play here two mondays ago. But

(46:25):
it was a little misleading because Dallas had three turnovers
to none. The Denver loss, they had two turnovers to one.
So those past two losses they've had five turnovers and
only forced one. I look for a cleaner offensive game
here off the bye and I think the Raiders will
have a good offensive game off the bye week as well,
coming off a bad offensive game against Denver, who's turned
out to be a pretty good team this year, and
they also got shut out against Kansas City a few

(46:45):
weeks before that. But when they faced bad defensive teams
this year, and by the way, Cowboys are a really
bad defensive team. They scored twenty nine against Jacksonville. In
between those two games, they put up twenty four and
the Commanders, who are another bad defensive team twenty four,
and the Bears on Tennessee. And I mentioned how Dallas
is not a good defensive team really any metric you
look at. They've been bad defensive this year. They' giving

(47:06):
up almost thirty one points a game, almost six and
a half yards of play, over seven and a half
yards of pass, almost five yards per carry, so the
Raiders will move the ball here. I like the situational
set up here for both offenses coming in with some rest.
And by the way, the Raiders are coming off of
many by They played the Thursday before, so they've had
ten days off. Cowboys have at thirteen off. I like

(47:26):
over fifty in this one between the Cowboys and Raiders,
Monday Night Football, eight fifteen Eastern on ABC and ESPN,
because it's so good.

Speaker 1 (47:35):
I love it over damn sitting here. Oh no, I
love these thirteen to six games. No, no, no, give
me thirty eight thirty one.

Speaker 7 (47:44):
I will be shocked if the Cowboys hold anybody to
thirteen or six points this season.

Speaker 2 (47:49):
It's true, it's true.

Speaker 7 (47:51):
To help the Cowboys is a lightning delay, and we're
not going to have that tonight in Vegas in the Dome.

Speaker 2 (47:57):
Let's move to the NBA.

Speaker 1 (47:59):
Pretty good game tonight, Bucks Cavaliers Garland appears to be
the only one that's gonna be out, but two really
good teams that are probably gonna be competing for the
Eastern Conference title.

Speaker 2 (48:09):
What do you see in this game.

Speaker 7 (48:11):
Yeah, I was gonna say the same thing. It looks
like a clean game. As far as the injury situation,
Garland's gone guy. As of twelve thirty Eastern. I'm seeing
kind of pop on the report. And we look at
these two teams right now, two contenders. But the Bucks
are just eight and six straight up, seven and seven
against the number. Cleveland nine and five a little bit
of a blow average star for them, some overtime losses,
but just four and ten against the number. Cleveland's been

(48:31):
a real money burner this year. Is they definitely have underperformed,
considering they were probably like the conference favorite coming in here.
As far as the points spread, very little movement from
the opening number this morning, that's sitting at seven and
a half across the board. I will say there are
some books that have gone to seven. So if you
like Milwaukee, maybe you grab this seven and a half
earlier than later. If you like Cleveland, wait, there are
some Stevens seven starting to show. I'm gonna look at

(48:53):
the total though instead for this game. And you mentioned
these are two of the best teams, perhaps two of
the best teams in the Eastern Conference. And the fact
that they both have been a little bit subpar to
start off. I think this will have a playoff atmosphere
tonight at seven Eastern on Monday, and whenever I get that,
I start leaning towards the under, and the early sharp
money likes the under in this game as well. Opened
two thirty eight and a half, it's already down to
two thirty five and a half, even seeing two thirty

(49:15):
five out there now and the sharpest book in the world,
perhaps Pinnacle two thirty four and a half. That's what
we call a sharp book leading indicator. And I do
agree with the under in this one for a few reasons.
First of all, I mentioned that playoff atmosphere here. I
think we'll see some defensive intensity and both teams coming
in here rested as well. They each played on Saturday. Milwaukee,

(49:36):
by the way, has lost two of their last three,
and they had a bad defensive showing against the Lakers
on Saturday. We had a team total play with the
Lakers over one eighteen and a half. They scored one
eighteen and then they scored one nineteen right after that.
It's like they're just sticking it to me. Two days
in a row. They're just to point out that they
could have gotten there and decided not to in the
previous night. And we've been over seventy percent in all
sports still over the past week. But the Bucks forty

(49:59):
percent offensively shooting, haven't really shot the ball well in
recent weeks. They had that breakout game against a bad
Hornets team, but when they faced better competition, Uh, the
games have been fairly low scoring here. And if you
look at some of the games they've played recently, the
Indiana game only landed on two thirty two, the Dallas
game two thirty, the Houston game got right up to
two thirty seven. That Laker game, even with a bad

(50:20):
offensive shown and bad defense, it still was just two
fourteen the other night. And then the Cleveland Cavaliers, with
their size down low, can be a really good defensive
team when they want to be. We started to see
some of that against Memphis. They held the Grizzly Saturday
to just thirty six percent shooting and only one hundred points,
probably their best defensive effort in several weeks. I like
under two thirty five, under two thirty five and a half.

(50:41):
I think we get plenty of wiggle room tonight. And
what could have a playoff atmosphere Monday night at seven
Eastern between the Bucks and Cavaliers.

Speaker 1 (50:48):
Hardest working man on wager Talk today, you get three
games to breakdown.

Speaker 7 (50:54):
Oh yeah, yeah, three sports.

Speaker 1 (50:57):
Yeah, and this is this was where I almost tripped
myself up. Was like Oregon State versus Oregon It's like.

Speaker 2 (51:02):
Did they play each other? Like, oh, basketball? Yeah, keep
forgetting We have to remember basketball is here.

Speaker 1 (51:09):
So I don't know anything about these teams, Oregon State
and Oregon enlighten us.

Speaker 2 (51:13):
What do you know about these teams? And what can
we expect?

Speaker 7 (51:16):
What's funny you said it's kind of like the football
matchup because the first thing I think of a civil war,
and then I remind myself, I can't say that anymore.
It's been canceled. I think I don't even know what.
It's called another border war, but it's not the border
work because they're in the same state. I don't know
it used to be the Civil Yeah, it used to
be the Civil War because they were rivals. But that's football.
I don't think the basketball was ever referred to that.
What this used to be called is a Pac twelve matchup.
Can't say that no more either, but they do still

(51:39):
play each other, obviously a little bit earlier in the
season than before. Here on November seventeenth, and as I'm
doing this breakdown, about twelve to fifty Eastern time, the
Odds Logic screen is lighting up. We're seeing some money
coming on Oregon the favorite. They opened as low as
minus twelve. It was thirteen, thirteen and a half a
few minutes ago, and now we're seeing mostly fourteen's out there.
So I would call that a sharp move, you know,

(52:00):
middle of the day on a Monday during the football season,
with Monday Night football NBA, when a college basketball game
is lighting up, it's probably sharp money. We'll check the
injury board. I did not see too much. One guy
was listed for Oregon as questionable this morning was Devin Pryor.
I believe, who's probably like the fifth or sixth guy
in my power rankings on the team as far as importance,

(52:21):
But he does play about thirty seven percent of their minutes.
Not a really good shooter, all offensive guy, a little
bit more important on the defensive side of the court.
So my guess is maybe Devin Pryor has been upgraded
hard for me to believe he's worth the pointers on
the line. But I'll point that out as this game
has gone from twelve to thirteen and now it's moving
up to fourteen and the other thing that's interesting about
that as well as the total is dropping, and once

(52:42):
again that would tell me that maybe this is based
on prior The over under opened as high as one
forty three. It was one forty, one forty and a
half a few minutes ago. Now it's one forty. So
we're seeing some money coming on an organ in the under.
I think maybe that's player related. One thing I do
like about the under in this game is the pace
of play. Here about tempo and college basketball. Now I'll
move over to Oregon State, the underdog, the Beavers, they

(53:04):
like to play slow. Out of a three hundred and
sixty some teams, they're one of the twenty slowest teams
once again this year. Oregon's kind of middle of the
pack as far as tempo. I think it's usually easier
for the home team to dictate pace, but it's also
easier for a slow down team to dictate pace, and
I think that's one of the reasons. Also we're seeing
some money coming on the under in this one, so

(53:25):
Oregon in the under moves don't really correlate because I
think a lower scoring game in Oregon State makes more sense.
One thing about these teams also, they live and die
by the three. Oregon State takes a huge percentage of
their shots from three point range. They're currently on the
season taking fifty two percent of their shots from three
point range. And Oregon has one of the best three
point defenses in the country, and so does Oregon State.

(53:47):
And Oregon also has a very good interior defense. I
really think the Beavers are gonna have a tough time
scoring in this game. You could look Oregon State team
total under or just the full game itself under the
one forty might be a lower scoring game than expected.
Tonight at ten Eastern in Eugene, Oregon, between the Ducks
and the Beavers.

Speaker 1 (54:06):
Just so weird to like, like, whenever you hear Oregon
in pace, my mind just goes back to those really
fast correct you know, And so then you're just like, oh,
the basketball team must play like that. No, completely different coaches,
completely different sports.

Speaker 7 (54:20):
So I got to get that out of my head
from betting this so well, I keep in mind, and
you know, they have played fast at times. Danae. Altman's
the current coach there. You know Creighton, I can bleed
back in the day. You know some really good mid
major programs, and I do think when they get the opportunity,
they're what I call a neutral team real quick. Like
their pace is around like one to eighty in the
country out of like three sixty. So a team like that,

(54:41):
I always feel like it's going to be dictated one
way or the other based on the opponent. And Oregon
State's a real slow down team. But if you see
Oregon against a fast team this year, you probably will
be right. You will see that pace once again.

Speaker 2 (54:52):
It's great.

Speaker 1 (54:53):
Monday Tomorrow, of course, is five dollars Tuesday, so everybody
buckle up for that. What do you have up for
clients on this Monday?

Speaker 4 (54:59):
Though?

Speaker 7 (54:59):
Steve not five dollars Monday, but tomorrow will be five
dollars Tuesday. Able wake up from his nap on Monday
and he'll be here on Tuesday. So yeah, Tuesday, five
dollars Tuesday is great, But you can also make it
five dollars every day, And actually tonight on Monday is
the last chance to do it, because I believe the
ten days for ninety nine is still up there and
it expires tonight at midnight, So that's ten days all

(55:19):
sports for the price of seven. Also, I've got the
one year all access available right now with the Instant
five hundred dollars discount, and that gets it down about
a dollar a play, about three dollars a day. So
if you like five dollars Tuesday for a single play,
how about getting every best bet I released for the
next three hundred and sixty five days and nights for
about a dollar a play with the Instant five hundred
dollars discount. And now's a great time to get on board.
You're gonna get the complete college and pro basketball seasons,

(55:41):
which will just begun the rest of college and pro football.
We went six and two this weekend in college and
pro football. It's a fantastic time to get on board.
The holidays around the corner. All next year is basically
for the first three months and then all next year's
baseball season. I went eleven and two in the baseball
playoffs that just ended. Three hundred and sixty five day
all access for about a dollar play with the instant
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(56:03):
but the one year all access is how you get
the price down to about a dollar play and you
start taking a serious, consistent investment approach every day. But
once again, it doesn't matter which package you get. Every
client gets the same best bets I release each and
every day, the same games I'm personally using, and it's
always been that way since I started back in August
of nineteen ninety six, over twenty nine years ago. Check
it out, and oh, don't forget about the bonus free play.

(56:24):
We had the Jags yesterday on Sunday. I was mad
because we would have been three in one had I
not cut it for my best back card, But everybody
got it for free. That's always nice. Hitting over seventy
percent on those free plays over the past month. Check
it out Steve Merrill wager talk dot com, and of
course get there quicker with Shortcut WT dot Buzz slash SM.
If you're liking the free play videos, I do them

(56:45):
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Thumbs up like, and I'll keep these free videos coming
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Speaker 1 (57:00):
Steve Merrill, great job, Thank you so much for breaking
down these games. Always drop a knowledge. Make sure you
go check out his plays over at wager Talk. Can't
wait to talk to you again next week, Steve. Let's
get the week started off right with some winners. All right,
let's move to breaking down an NBA game here. I
have been tasked with breaking down Nuggets and the Bulls,

(57:20):
so let's talk about the Nuggets and the Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls opened up as ten and a half point favorites,
and immediately before this show started recording, they moved to
fourteen and a half. So we recognize that that graphic
is not accurate when you're watching this probably, but the
overenders about two forty four.

Speaker 2 (57:41):
They are on the road against the Denver Nuggets.

Speaker 1 (57:43):
The reason for this aggressive line move is a double
overtime game Chicago had last night against Utah. You've had
three players play forty plus minutes last night, Giddyakoro, and Vucevich,
and they get to go on the road again to
the buzzsaw that is the Denver Nugget. I mean, Denver
is number one in offense and number three in defense efficiency. Meanwhile,

(58:05):
Chicago started off the year insanely good, won their first five,
but now they have regressed back. Chicago's now fourteenth in
offensive efficiency. Defense is slipping. They're down to twentieth in
defense efficiency. Like he said, Bulls won five in a
rower to start the season, but they've lost five in
a row. And they've lost five in a row on
the road. Here the Knicks or the Knicks, the Nuggets.

(58:26):
Six home games, five wins by ten plus points. Here,
Kobe White is out tonight, and you've get it. You
got a Chicago team that I listen to know the
professional athletes, they have to be tired. That was an
insane marathon game last night. So what do we do
is I'm gonna take the first half on the Denver Nuggets.

Speaker 2 (58:43):
I don't want anything to do with this massive spread
in the fourth quarter. I do think Denver gets out.

Speaker 1 (58:49):
I love what the Nuggets did in the offseason when
they signed Valanciunas.

Speaker 2 (58:53):
That has opened up everything for Jokic.

Speaker 1 (58:55):
He's playing least minutes, he's fresh the time that he's
on the court, He's got way more energy last year
they were having to play him way too much and
he's getting a lot of rest. So you're getting an
aggressive Jokich tonight against Vusovich that played over forty minutes
last night. I just don't think this goes well for Chicago,
and I would take the first half on the total.

(59:18):
It's my I'm sorry. On the spread, let's do minus
eight and a half on the Denver Nuggets. This is
the Denver Nuggets team that's five and one covering the
spread and home games this season. I think they get
off to a good start, and guys like Jamal Moory
and Aaron Gordon when they're fresh and they're going up
against some tired legs, they just have all the advantages
in the world. We can take a look at some
props here. Jalen Smith over eight and a half points.

(59:39):
If Vucevich is tired and gets some rest or gets
in any foul trouble, Jalen Smith is gonna come in
and he's gonna get minutes, especially if this is a
blowout late. So I like Jalen Smith over eight and
a half points and Aaron Gordon over five and a
half rebounds. I could see a lot of mishots coming
from the Chicago Bulls team. Jokic is dealing with a
little bit of an injury, and if you look, Aaron
Gordon has had only three rebound chances the last two games.

(01:00:03):
He gets anywhere near this eleven or twelve rebound chances.
I love him to get over five and a half rebounds.
So we're gonna take the Nuggets to cover the spread
at eight and a half in the first half. We'll
take a look at Jalen Smith over his points and
Aaron Gordon over his rebounds. NBA at NHL best Bets
are up props continued to hit or up over eleven

(01:00:23):
units just in the month of November. On these we
like to combine the NHL and NBA props kind of
into one pack, so you get to see how we
play them off of each other. You get to see
how we follow a lot of the same guys. We
also have a Monday Night football pack that is up
two plays. We're seventeen and ten in primetime games in
the NFL. Those are over at wager talk dot com.
If you could please hit the like button leave a

(01:00:44):
comment below, really helps the algorithm. Mountain appreciate you guys
watching all right ed is going to do it for
us for Mondays. Wager Talk today went just a little long,
but a lot of good information, a lot of good
bets on the board. It's five dollars Tuesday tomorrow. We're
gonna gear up for that. Don't forget to like button.
Leave us a comment and thank you so much. Chat
you crushed it today. Let's have a big Monday to
get this week started off right. Good look in your

(01:01:06):
best night. We'll see you tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (01:01:07):
Take care,