April 28, 2025 • 28 mins
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Chris answers listener mail about his recent critiques of Trump's first 100 days, clarifying that while he supports many of Trump's goals—like securing the border and avoiding new wars—he warns that tariffs are hurting small businesses, farmers, and the broader economy. He debunks the idea that tariffs can replace income taxes, explains why political capital matters, and urges a smarter, more strategic approach to restoring American manufacturing—starting with education reform, cutting spending, and real policy, not headline promises. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i
Watch on: https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured
Chris answers listener mail about his recent critiques of Trump's first 100 days, clarifying that while he supports many of Trump's goals—like securing the border and avoiding new wars—he warns that tariffs are hurting small businesses, farmers, and the broader economy. He debunks the idea that tariffs can replace income taxes, explains why political capital matters, and urges a smarter, more strategic approach to restoring American manufacturing—starting with education reform, cutting spending, and real policy, not headline promises. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
All right, we're going to do a Trump First one
hundred days mail bag. I know I've been hammering them,
been hammering them over the past month, and I think
I've made my points very clear. But you know, just
in case, just in case some people are maybe not
hearing me correctly or I'm not articulating myself properly, We're
(00:38):
going to go through this again. I was actually surprised
I haven't gotten the never going to listen to you
again Chris emails, which I get from time to time
when I go after someone's favorite politician. Whether it be
left right, middle, doesn't make any difference. But I did
get some, and I'm actually happy were quite respectful in
(01:02):
their comments. And what I've garnered from their emails is
maybe I'm not making making myself perfectly clear. I'm gonna
point out one email, and again, there's kind of the
tone across the ones that I did get from people
that were concerned about what I had to say, basically
(01:26):
saying that what I teach on my show is not
paying attention to the markets and trying to predict the
markets as an exercise and futility. Yet I've been spending
a great deal of time going after Trump's tariffs in
relation and how they are affecting the markets. I basically
(01:50):
saying I can't have it both ways, and that Trump
is trying something different than what the There's a lot
of people say, well, Global's eleast elites have for decades
and saying that we don't change this trade where we're
going to be essentially screwed as a country. A couple
of points made. Uh, you know one of my catch
(02:12):
phrases isn't it's true you are what your record says
it is. It's Bill Parcell's not me. And they checked
off some things here and this is important. You know,
the border doze tariffs again, I'll get into that in
a second. No new wars, that's that's good. Dealing with
(02:34):
Iran hopefully permanent tax cuts, inflation easing, and saying that
these are all these are all good things. Let's I'm
gonna break this down and go through point by point
by point. First and foremost, let's go let's take a
look at Trump's polls right now, and I know I'm
gonna get them all. You can't trust the mainstream media.
(02:54):
You can't trust this, you can't trust that series of
polls out there has Trump at a lowest one hundred
day approval rating in eighty years. And this is again
that one that Trump ripped into that poll and some
of the other ones who are lengthy, lengthy, lengthy truth
(03:15):
social post ripping the media and the various different pollsters
out there, and he was across the board. He went
after New York Times, went after the ABC Washington News poll,
went after the Fox News poll. Again, he's saying that
he's got the best numbers ever. Okay, yeah, I'll give
(03:36):
it to him. Pretend he's right in that one. Here's
a poll of just Republicans saying that Trump Trump's not
focusing on the right priorities. His approval among independents are
down view of Trump's handling of inflation, tariffs, and economy
basically thirty five percent, which is not good. Now, again,
(03:58):
I'm not in the football I'm not going after him
because the reality of the situation has been paying attention
to this program. I want the president to do well.
I do again. You heard this program, you know wait
early stages of his presence. It was like Christmas every
(04:18):
day with what was taking place. And I made that
perfectly clear. I want to take you back in time. Actually,
never forget this, Never forget this. It wasn't like George W.
Bush to talk like this. But after he won the
second time around against John Carry and if you remember
this correctly, you know Carrie, I don't know, they were
(04:41):
trying to do some vote manufacturing at night. Remember Carrie
wouldn't concede until the next day. But anyway, Bush gave
a speech. Remember him giving this speech, and he he said,
you know, gave credit to the architect Carl Rove, and
he kind of was puffing his chest out a little
(05:01):
bit saying I have he said this, and I'm paraphrasing,
but very close, and I remember it. I have political
capital and I am going to spend it. Now that
political capital went away quickly. I was again. I was
(05:26):
very encouraged with what was going to take place in
W's second term, first and foremost basically reforming social security,
and we would be in a much different place right
now if he was able to get that accomplished. But
because of all of the problems in Iraq, he spent
(05:50):
all of his political capital there again when faced Republicans
came in and basically told w now, now we can't
do social security. You don't have the political capital anymore.
This is true, true, what happened. What happened two years
(06:13):
into his second term Pelosi happened. Remember that Pelosi got
the gavel, and I remember even in that I was embarrassing,
you know, w George W. Bush went up and kissed
her ass, I mean absolutely kissed her ass when she
(06:35):
I guess she was the first woman Speaker of the House.
And he did this lengthy story about Nancy Pelosi and
her political family out of Baltimore. I'll never forget that.
I was like, huh, but anyway, anyway, neither here there.
Maybe he was trying to, you know, bring in goodwill,
but then we all know how that worked out. When
(06:58):
you lose political capital, he can't get anything done. When
you lose political capital, you cannot get anything done. Now,
most most of the people out there freaking out because
of the ah this activist judge and not activist judge
and this judge shouldn't be doing this, and just judge
shouldn't be doing that. You want to take the judges
(07:19):
out of the equation. It's simple, you legislate rather than
running the country by executive order. And again, this country
is not supposed to be run by executive order. We
are a republic. You run it through Congress. All of
(07:41):
these checks that this individual set and things that he
was happy about, border clothes deporting illegals, that's all well
and good, but you have to make these rules laws
or it's just going to next administration coming you somebody.
You don't like it, they're gonna just change it. Dose
(08:05):
those is finding lots of things, my friends, they are,
and we're cheering these things on. But guess what, nothing
but cut. You think stuff has been cut? Oh, it's
been pointed out. But I'd like to remind you that
Republicans just signed off, just signed off, and that continuing
(08:27):
resolution that funded all of these things. So unless these
things are written out of any sort of budget bill
moving forward, everything that DOSE has done is it basically
amounts to not you know, outside of trimming government the
government workforce. But again that capital is still there too.
(08:48):
Now tariffs starting to bring some investment back, uh to
the United States. That's the announcements that you're seeing today.
You had an announcement by IBM. You know it was
one hundred and fifty billion dollars here in the United States.
I know you may not want to believe this, but
these companies were planning on doing much of this anyway.
(09:12):
Do you understand you attract investment back to the United States,
it's not because of teriffs. It's not because of teriff's
it's because it's a better place to do business. Case
in point, Case in point Spain today, Spain, Portugal, part
of France, different parts of Europe. Massive blackout, massive blackout.
(09:36):
You know what Spain did. Actually I'm not making this up.
I think it was two days ago. They were just said, hey,
we are the first, this the first time in Spain's history.
They're all of their all, their entire country is running
on renewables, solar, wind, hydro, whatever it may be. Ye,
no joke. A couple of days after complete and total blackout.
(09:59):
If you're a manufactur train company, do you want to
deal with that? Probably not? Probably not. We have a
lot of things going for us that make us a
very attractive place to set up shop in certain things,
certain certain thing absolutely, but other types of manufacturing not
(10:19):
so much. Again, no new wars cross you know. Blessing myself.
I hope that that stays that way. Hopefully we can
get an agreement with Iran. These are these are good things,
permanent tax cuts. This is part of the problem. Okay,
it's part of the problem. What I'm talking about. That
(10:42):
to me was you know, and obviously the budget and
cutting spending was priority number one. You he just made
his job that much more difficult, that much more difficult
because because of what's taking place with the tariffs, you're
(11:05):
losing political capital for what for what? Now? I want
to address the points being made talking about the markets. Yeah,
I'm very clear when it comes to the markets. And
I also said time and time again over the course
of this month when these tariffs first hit, said business
(11:27):
will find a way. Markets will eventually recover. They will.
But again again, having markets drop like they have and
is volatile they had, it's not good. It's not good
for your popularity by any stretch of the imagination. We
all know that. And again it's not a good look
(11:47):
for the United States. Put that aside. This is again,
I maybe again, I've only said it a hundred times,
but obviously I didn't say it the right way. Take
the market put aside. My biggest concern is for small
businesses here in this country. I said it this weekend,
(12:08):
I said it last week. I've said it time and
time again, and I made this point clear. You know, Walmart,
Target Home Depot had an Oval office meeting with the
President last week. Big companies can do that. Small businesses can't.
(12:30):
They can't, and they're feeling it for crying out loud.
You know, these numbers don't lie. I mean, let's take
a look. I mean story after story out there, small
business after small business. Certain items, certain items right now
you can't even source here in the United States. Yeah,
(12:52):
certain companies like iron Ore certain things that are very,
very It's not a high margin business by any stretch
of the imagination to build an actual foundry to do
that hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars.
Nobody's going to do it here because it's a low
margin business. So people's costs are going up when they
have to source this from other places around the globe,
(13:14):
making it difficult farmers right now are flipping out. They
just there's it's a basically they're saying, it's a full
blown crisis right now. There's the amount of food that
we send to China is crushing farmers. And this is
(13:37):
what we're getting from the administration. President Trump is ready
to bail out American farmers if commodity exports continue to fall,
particularly involving pork and soybean sales to China. This is
from the Agricultural Secretary. So what you're saying is, Okay,
you're collecting these tariffs, you're crushing farmers here in the
(13:58):
United States, then you're gonna take those tears, is going
to pay the farmers. That doesn't make any sense at
all at all. And a lot of stories out there
talking with the American manufacturers and American products and these
many of these these American companies they can source ninety
(14:21):
ninety five percent of what they do here in the
United States, but it's sometimes that ten that five to
ten percent, which can basically wreck their business when it
comes to margins. They don't have they don't have a
line into the Oval Office, who is sticking up for
them right now. The trucking industry. America's mom and pup
(14:43):
truck truckers in dire straits right now and again again,
like I said before, this tariff stuff, Trump loses the
lawsuits that are being filed or there's an injunction and filed,
making them quite frankly unconstitutional. And I believe them to
(15:05):
be unconstitutional because it's a tax. It's a tax. Pick
up your program, it got it handy all the time.
Pick up your constitution. Okay, it's not the president that
can tax it. It's Congress that has the power to
do this. And stop with this emergency nonsense. Okay, it's
(15:28):
not going to hold up in court. It's not you know.
I'm again what did I say before? Save Trump? Save Trump.
This is what Republicans have to do that save his presidency.
He's got many things going on that I happen to
agree with. Hurting small business is quite frankly, it's not
(15:51):
one of them. I'm going to go through a lot
of numbers right now. I don't know. Numbers are difficult.
When it comes here, I want you to pay close attention.
Report put together. First, I'm going to share with you
some anecdotes from the past week at Southwest airlines say,
I don't care if you call it a recession or not.
(16:12):
In this industry, that's a recession. Chapolte saving money because
of concerns around the economy was the overwhelming reason consumers
reducing the frequency of restaurant visits PEPSI. Relative to where
we were three months ago, we probably aren't feeling as
good about the consumer now again again three months ago,
(16:37):
we're in a different place. Follow some of these numbers, people, Okay, again,
they don't lie, first and foremost, Okay, from a container
ship containership from China to the United States takes anywhere
between twenty to forty days. Twenty to forty days. Right now,
(17:05):
what we're seeing. What we're seeing is well, we're seeing
empty ships or ships that are not sailing. Will go
over some of the numbers. Prior to the tariffs, inventories
were built up by many companies. This is across every
(17:25):
single federal Reserve bank in their studies out there put
out that inventories went up before the tariffs went into place.
We right now have the sharpest decline in earning's outlook
since twenty twenty. New orders right now, manufacturing are collapsing.
You have a sharp reversal, and corporate capital expensers cap
(17:50):
X spending plans. Companies are not doing anything right now.
This is what happens when I've talked about this before.
The minefield that can be created by government that scares businesses.
Nobody wants to step on a landmine. Cost pressures are increasing,
new orders are in contraction territory. This is where we're
(18:15):
at right now. Truck sales are down significantly significantly, CEO
confidence declining, Logistic Managers index declining, China to US trade
coming to a stop. And here it is. Container ship
count has fallen off a cliff, tonnage fallen off a cliff,
(18:44):
and container freight rates are dropping as well. How are
consumers responding right now? Consumer confidence at record low levels,
A lot of front loading of purchases before terrafs began.
Tour is plumbing here in the United States from Europe
and Canada. This is None of this is good, okay.
(19:12):
None of this is going to help the President moving
forward with his agenda. None of it. None of it again,
take the markets and put this aside. How would you feel?
How would you feel? Again? I've got clients all over
(19:34):
the country, small business owners care about poorfolio, They're gonna
be fine with that, But what about their business, whether
about whether or not that's even you know, is it
even worth it to stay in business anymore? Not knowing
what to do, not knowing whether or not planning on hiring,
planning on doing things. But you know what, I don't
(19:56):
know if I can how is this right? How? How
is this a shot at the globalist elite? You think
Walmart target those companies, They'll be fine, they'll be fine.
It's the small companies that are going to be hurt.
(20:20):
And again some of the things that he's floating right now,
quite frankly, and again this bothers me. Okay, he has
to be a little bit more intelligent with his comments.
He has to stop making stuff up. Again, I don't
know if it's part of the plan, and I don't
(20:40):
get it. But you know this this idea that tariffs
are going to eliminate income taxes. Have you actually played
with a calculator? People? Just because it sounds good, does
it make it realistic? I again, I'm gonna tell you
another quick short story back when I was in sixth grade.
(21:02):
I've told this story before. Everything I needed to know
about politics I learned in sixth grade. We had class
elections every single semester or ten weeks, and I lost
the election for president to a young lady that promised
the entire class that we were going to go on
(21:23):
spring break in Disney World is going to be a
class trip. I grew up in upstate New York and
went to a public school. There was no way in
hell we were going on a trip. But it didn't matter.
It sounded good. It sounded good. Some of the things
that Donald Trump is floating out there sound good but
(21:45):
are not possible. Okay, First and foremost, the idea that
you're going to replace the income tax with tariffs. All right,
let's just I'm gonna again. It's it's so ridiculous. And
I know people get upset when I point out how
ridiculous it is because you love the guy. But come on,
(22:07):
we import three point five trillion dollars worth of products
to cover to cover the income tax, we would have
to tariff at fifty percent across the board. Okay, fifty
percent across the board to cover income taxes from people
(22:31):
who make two hundred thousand dollars or less. Because he said, ah, yep,
nobody under two hundred thousand dollars is gonna pay any taxes. Now,
think about how the cost of everything if you're gonna
put tariffs at fifty percent. And then he said, well,
you know what, Qui, you're gonna bring jobs back to America.
But he's back to America. Okay, then they bring them
(22:52):
back to America. Then where are your tariffs? You see
the logic in this. It doesn't make any sense. You
want to replace taxes with tariffs, and at the same
time you want to bring all of these factories and
(23:13):
businesses back to the United States. Then there's no more tariffs. Again,
it's mellow. It's like it's like Donald Trump's catch twenty two.
It's not going to work. We again, I've talked about
(23:39):
the problems with education here in this country and how
we have been doing things. This is a This is
not something that can be done with tariffs. It can't
be done over the short term. You want to onshore
more here in the United States. It's real simple. It's
the same reason why states like Texas and Florida and
(24:01):
Tennessee and these low tax, low regulation states are attracting
so many businesses. You become attractive become more attractive than
the rest of the globe. That's all you need to do.
And you know what, we have to change the way
we are educating people in this country. We have to
break big education. Mike rawl I again, he doing an interview.
(24:28):
I don't know who he was doing and what podcast
was on. Oh yeah, it was with some guy by
the name of THEO Vaughn. I was listening to this
a bit of it and basically echoing what we've been
saying here on the program. We got one point seven
trillion dollars in student debt on the books, one point
(24:48):
seven trillion. Again, See, I told you so. I knew
this was going to happen when Obama took it over.
You know, you got seven point six million job openings
in the United States right now. Most of these jobs
do not require a four year degree. They don't. It's
(25:12):
a problem. Mike Rowe making the point that I made
last week. The week before, we got almost seven million
able bodied men that are not in the workforce. They
just quit because you can here in the United States,
you can. We have a you know, you know, how
(25:36):
to play the safety nets and whatnot. A myriad of
different things. They don't work. We need tradesmen. And this
is what he said. He said, we took shop class
out of high school. We rob kids of the opportunity
to see what that kind of work even looks like.
(25:57):
We told a whole generation of kids that they were
blanking screwed if they didn't get a four year degree.
He makes the same point that I make nothing. In
this country. Nothing has gotten more expensive. Nothing, healthcare, homes,
(26:19):
it doesn't matter. Over the past forty years. Nothing has
become more expensive than a four year degree. Keep telling
kids that they're screwed if they don't spend all of
this money and get a college degree, and then we
lend them the money to go and do this again.
(26:42):
It's not tariff's people. We got to convince people that
you know what, again, it starts, I said, it starts
an eighth grade. It's you could start thinking about this.
You could start getting kids excited. Kids. We need people
that can build ships, and you get them on a
(27:05):
program at an age where you see whether or not
they like it. They can learn this trade. Then they
can finish high school and have a job paying six figures.
This is what needs to be done. This is the
intelligent way of changing it. Do we need to we
want to, you know again, change our workforce, rejigger our workforce.
(27:28):
Do we want to attract more manufacturing here to the
United States. Yes, but there's a right way and a
wrong way of doing it, and this is obviously the
wrong way. It's not working. I'm not worried about Walson.
(27:50):
Wall's trade is fine. They'll take care of itself. I'm
worried about mom and pop, mom and pops, small businesses,
my clients all across the country. Watchdog on Wall street
dot com
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
All right, we're going to do a Trump First one
hundred days mail bag. I know I've been hammering them,
been hammering them over the past month, and I think
I've made my points very clear. But you know, just
in case, just in case some people are maybe not
hearing me correctly or I'm not articulating myself properly, We're
(00:38):
going to go through this again. I was actually surprised
I haven't gotten the never going to listen to you
again Chris emails, which I get from time to time
when I go after someone's favorite politician. Whether it be
left right, middle, doesn't make any difference. But I did
get some, and I'm actually happy were quite respectful in
(01:02):
their comments. And what I've garnered from their emails is
maybe I'm not making making myself perfectly clear. I'm gonna
point out one email, and again, there's kind of the
tone across the ones that I did get from people
that were concerned about what I had to say, basically
(01:26):
saying that what I teach on my show is not
paying attention to the markets and trying to predict the
markets as an exercise and futility. Yet I've been spending
a great deal of time going after Trump's tariffs in
relation and how they are affecting the markets. I basically
(01:50):
saying I can't have it both ways, and that Trump
is trying something different than what the There's a lot
of people say, well, Global's eleast elites have for decades
and saying that we don't change this trade where we're
going to be essentially screwed as a country. A couple
of points made. Uh, you know one of my catch
(02:12):
phrases isn't it's true you are what your record says
it is. It's Bill Parcell's not me. And they checked
off some things here and this is important. You know,
the border doze tariffs again, I'll get into that in
a second. No new wars, that's that's good. Dealing with
(02:34):
Iran hopefully permanent tax cuts, inflation easing, and saying that
these are all these are all good things. Let's I'm
gonna break this down and go through point by point
by point. First and foremost, let's go let's take a
look at Trump's polls right now, and I know I'm
gonna get them all. You can't trust the mainstream media.
(02:54):
You can't trust this, you can't trust that series of
polls out there has Trump at a lowest one hundred
day approval rating in eighty years. And this is again
that one that Trump ripped into that poll and some
of the other ones who are lengthy, lengthy, lengthy truth
(03:15):
social post ripping the media and the various different pollsters
out there, and he was across the board. He went
after New York Times, went after the ABC Washington News poll,
went after the Fox News poll. Again, he's saying that
he's got the best numbers ever. Okay, yeah, I'll give
(03:36):
it to him. Pretend he's right in that one. Here's
a poll of just Republicans saying that Trump Trump's not
focusing on the right priorities. His approval among independents are
down view of Trump's handling of inflation, tariffs, and economy
basically thirty five percent, which is not good. Now, again,
(03:58):
I'm not in the football I'm not going after him
because the reality of the situation has been paying attention
to this program. I want the president to do well.
I do again. You heard this program, you know wait
early stages of his presence. It was like Christmas every
(04:18):
day with what was taking place. And I made that
perfectly clear. I want to take you back in time. Actually,
never forget this, Never forget this. It wasn't like George W.
Bush to talk like this. But after he won the
second time around against John Carry and if you remember
this correctly, you know Carrie, I don't know, they were
(04:41):
trying to do some vote manufacturing at night. Remember Carrie
wouldn't concede until the next day. But anyway, Bush gave
a speech. Remember him giving this speech, and he he said,
you know, gave credit to the architect Carl Rove, and
he kind of was puffing his chest out a little
(05:01):
bit saying I have he said this, and I'm paraphrasing,
but very close, and I remember it. I have political
capital and I am going to spend it. Now that
political capital went away quickly. I was again. I was
(05:26):
very encouraged with what was going to take place in
W's second term, first and foremost basically reforming social security,
and we would be in a much different place right
now if he was able to get that accomplished. But
because of all of the problems in Iraq, he spent
(05:50):
all of his political capital there again when faced Republicans
came in and basically told w now, now we can't
do social security. You don't have the political capital anymore.
This is true, true, what happened. What happened two years
(06:13):
into his second term Pelosi happened. Remember that Pelosi got
the gavel, and I remember even in that I was embarrassing,
you know, w George W. Bush went up and kissed
her ass, I mean absolutely kissed her ass when she
(06:35):
I guess she was the first woman Speaker of the House.
And he did this lengthy story about Nancy Pelosi and
her political family out of Baltimore. I'll never forget that.
I was like, huh, but anyway, anyway, neither here there.
Maybe he was trying to, you know, bring in goodwill,
but then we all know how that worked out. When
(06:58):
you lose political capital, he can't get anything done. When
you lose political capital, you cannot get anything done. Now,
most most of the people out there freaking out because
of the ah this activist judge and not activist judge
and this judge shouldn't be doing this, and just judge
shouldn't be doing that. You want to take the judges
(07:19):
out of the equation. It's simple, you legislate rather than
running the country by executive order. And again, this country
is not supposed to be run by executive order. We
are a republic. You run it through Congress. All of
(07:41):
these checks that this individual set and things that he
was happy about, border clothes deporting illegals, that's all well
and good, but you have to make these rules laws
or it's just going to next administration coming you somebody.
You don't like it, they're gonna just change it. Dose
(08:05):
those is finding lots of things, my friends, they are,
and we're cheering these things on. But guess what, nothing
but cut. You think stuff has been cut? Oh, it's
been pointed out. But I'd like to remind you that
Republicans just signed off, just signed off, and that continuing
(08:27):
resolution that funded all of these things. So unless these
things are written out of any sort of budget bill
moving forward, everything that DOSE has done is it basically
amounts to not you know, outside of trimming government the
government workforce. But again that capital is still there too.
(08:48):
Now tariffs starting to bring some investment back, uh to
the United States. That's the announcements that you're seeing today.
You had an announcement by IBM. You know it was
one hundred and fifty billion dollars here in the United States.
I know you may not want to believe this, but
these companies were planning on doing much of this anyway.
(09:12):
Do you understand you attract investment back to the United States,
it's not because of teriffs. It's not because of teriff's
it's because it's a better place to do business. Case
in point, Case in point Spain today, Spain, Portugal, part
of France, different parts of Europe. Massive blackout, massive blackout.
(09:36):
You know what Spain did. Actually I'm not making this up.
I think it was two days ago. They were just said, hey,
we are the first, this the first time in Spain's history.
They're all of their all, their entire country is running
on renewables, solar, wind, hydro, whatever it may be. Ye,
no joke. A couple of days after complete and total blackout.
(09:59):
If you're a manufactur train company, do you want to
deal with that? Probably not? Probably not. We have a
lot of things going for us that make us a
very attractive place to set up shop in certain things,
certain certain thing absolutely, but other types of manufacturing not
(10:19):
so much. Again, no new wars cross you know. Blessing myself.
I hope that that stays that way. Hopefully we can
get an agreement with Iran. These are these are good things,
permanent tax cuts. This is part of the problem. Okay,
it's part of the problem. What I'm talking about. That
(10:42):
to me was you know, and obviously the budget and
cutting spending was priority number one. You he just made
his job that much more difficult, that much more difficult
because because of what's taking place with the tariffs, you're
(11:05):
losing political capital for what for what? Now? I want
to address the points being made talking about the markets. Yeah,
I'm very clear when it comes to the markets. And
I also said time and time again over the course
of this month when these tariffs first hit, said business
(11:27):
will find a way. Markets will eventually recover. They will.
But again again, having markets drop like they have and
is volatile they had, it's not good. It's not good
for your popularity by any stretch of the imagination. We
all know that. And again it's not a good look
(11:47):
for the United States. Put that aside. This is again,
I maybe again, I've only said it a hundred times,
but obviously I didn't say it the right way. Take
the market put aside. My biggest concern is for small
businesses here in this country. I said it this weekend,
(12:08):
I said it last week. I've said it time and
time again, and I made this point clear. You know, Walmart,
Target Home Depot had an Oval office meeting with the
President last week. Big companies can do that. Small businesses can't.
(12:30):
They can't, and they're feeling it for crying out loud.
You know, these numbers don't lie. I mean, let's take
a look. I mean story after story out there, small
business after small business. Certain items, certain items right now
you can't even source here in the United States. Yeah,
(12:52):
certain companies like iron Ore certain things that are very,
very It's not a high margin business by any stretch
of the imagination to build an actual foundry to do
that hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars.
Nobody's going to do it here because it's a low
margin business. So people's costs are going up when they
have to source this from other places around the globe,
(13:14):
making it difficult farmers right now are flipping out. They
just there's it's a basically they're saying, it's a full
blown crisis right now. There's the amount of food that
we send to China is crushing farmers. And this is
(13:37):
what we're getting from the administration. President Trump is ready
to bail out American farmers if commodity exports continue to fall,
particularly involving pork and soybean sales to China. This is
from the Agricultural Secretary. So what you're saying is, Okay,
you're collecting these tariffs, you're crushing farmers here in the
(13:58):
United States, then you're gonna take those tears, is going
to pay the farmers. That doesn't make any sense at
all at all. And a lot of stories out there
talking with the American manufacturers and American products and these
many of these these American companies they can source ninety
(14:21):
ninety five percent of what they do here in the
United States, but it's sometimes that ten that five to
ten percent, which can basically wreck their business when it
comes to margins. They don't have they don't have a
line into the Oval Office, who is sticking up for
them right now. The trucking industry. America's mom and pup
(14:43):
truck truckers in dire straits right now and again again,
like I said before, this tariff stuff, Trump loses the
lawsuits that are being filed or there's an injunction and filed,
making them quite frankly unconstitutional. And I believe them to
(15:05):
be unconstitutional because it's a tax. It's a tax. Pick
up your program, it got it handy all the time.
Pick up your constitution. Okay, it's not the president that
can tax it. It's Congress that has the power to
do this. And stop with this emergency nonsense. Okay, it's
(15:28):
not going to hold up in court. It's not you know.
I'm again what did I say before? Save Trump? Save Trump.
This is what Republicans have to do that save his presidency.
He's got many things going on that I happen to
agree with. Hurting small business is quite frankly, it's not
(15:51):
one of them. I'm going to go through a lot
of numbers right now. I don't know. Numbers are difficult.
When it comes here, I want you to pay close attention.
Report put together. First, I'm going to share with you
some anecdotes from the past week at Southwest airlines say,
I don't care if you call it a recession or not.
(16:12):
In this industry, that's a recession. Chapolte saving money because
of concerns around the economy was the overwhelming reason consumers
reducing the frequency of restaurant visits PEPSI. Relative to where
we were three months ago, we probably aren't feeling as
good about the consumer now again again three months ago,
(16:37):
we're in a different place. Follow some of these numbers, people, Okay, again,
they don't lie, first and foremost, Okay, from a container
ship containership from China to the United States takes anywhere
between twenty to forty days. Twenty to forty days. Right now,
(17:05):
what we're seeing. What we're seeing is well, we're seeing
empty ships or ships that are not sailing. Will go
over some of the numbers. Prior to the tariffs, inventories
were built up by many companies. This is across every
(17:25):
single federal Reserve bank in their studies out there put
out that inventories went up before the tariffs went into place.
We right now have the sharpest decline in earning's outlook
since twenty twenty. New orders right now, manufacturing are collapsing.
You have a sharp reversal, and corporate capital expensers cap
(17:50):
X spending plans. Companies are not doing anything right now.
This is what happens when I've talked about this before.
The minefield that can be created by government that scares businesses.
Nobody wants to step on a landmine. Cost pressures are increasing,
new orders are in contraction territory. This is where we're
(18:15):
at right now. Truck sales are down significantly significantly, CEO
confidence declining, Logistic Managers index declining, China to US trade
coming to a stop. And here it is. Container ship
count has fallen off a cliff, tonnage fallen off a cliff,
(18:44):
and container freight rates are dropping as well. How are
consumers responding right now? Consumer confidence at record low levels,
A lot of front loading of purchases before terrafs began.
Tour is plumbing here in the United States from Europe
and Canada. This is None of this is good, okay.
(19:12):
None of this is going to help the President moving
forward with his agenda. None of it. None of it again,
take the markets and put this aside. How would you feel?
How would you feel? Again? I've got clients all over
(19:34):
the country, small business owners care about poorfolio, They're gonna
be fine with that, But what about their business, whether
about whether or not that's even you know, is it
even worth it to stay in business anymore? Not knowing
what to do, not knowing whether or not planning on hiring,
planning on doing things. But you know what, I don't
(19:56):
know if I can how is this right? How? How
is this a shot at the globalist elite? You think
Walmart target those companies, They'll be fine, they'll be fine.
It's the small companies that are going to be hurt.
(20:20):
And again some of the things that he's floating right now,
quite frankly, and again this bothers me. Okay, he has
to be a little bit more intelligent with his comments.
He has to stop making stuff up. Again, I don't
know if it's part of the plan, and I don't
(20:40):
get it. But you know this this idea that tariffs
are going to eliminate income taxes. Have you actually played
with a calculator? People? Just because it sounds good, does
it make it realistic? I again, I'm gonna tell you
another quick short story back when I was in sixth grade.
(21:02):
I've told this story before. Everything I needed to know
about politics I learned in sixth grade. We had class
elections every single semester or ten weeks, and I lost
the election for president to a young lady that promised
the entire class that we were going to go on
(21:23):
spring break in Disney World is going to be a
class trip. I grew up in upstate New York and
went to a public school. There was no way in
hell we were going on a trip. But it didn't matter.
It sounded good. It sounded good. Some of the things
that Donald Trump is floating out there sound good but
(21:45):
are not possible. Okay, First and foremost, the idea that
you're going to replace the income tax with tariffs. All right,
let's just I'm gonna again. It's it's so ridiculous. And
I know people get upset when I point out how
ridiculous it is because you love the guy. But come on,
(22:07):
we import three point five trillion dollars worth of products
to cover to cover the income tax, we would have
to tariff at fifty percent across the board. Okay, fifty
percent across the board to cover income taxes from people
(22:31):
who make two hundred thousand dollars or less. Because he said, ah, yep,
nobody under two hundred thousand dollars is gonna pay any taxes. Now,
think about how the cost of everything if you're gonna
put tariffs at fifty percent. And then he said, well,
you know what, Qui, you're gonna bring jobs back to America.
But he's back to America. Okay, then they bring them
(22:52):
back to America. Then where are your tariffs? You see
the logic in this. It doesn't make any sense. You
want to replace taxes with tariffs, and at the same
time you want to bring all of these factories and
(23:13):
businesses back to the United States. Then there's no more tariffs. Again,
it's mellow. It's like it's like Donald Trump's catch twenty two.
It's not going to work. We again, I've talked about
(23:39):
the problems with education here in this country and how
we have been doing things. This is a This is
not something that can be done with tariffs. It can't
be done over the short term. You want to onshore
more here in the United States. It's real simple. It's
the same reason why states like Texas and Florida and
(24:01):
Tennessee and these low tax, low regulation states are attracting
so many businesses. You become attractive become more attractive than
the rest of the globe. That's all you need to do.
And you know what, we have to change the way
we are educating people in this country. We have to
break big education. Mike rawl I again, he doing an interview.
(24:28):
I don't know who he was doing and what podcast
was on. Oh yeah, it was with some guy by
the name of THEO Vaughn. I was listening to this
a bit of it and basically echoing what we've been
saying here on the program. We got one point seven
trillion dollars in student debt on the books, one point
(24:48):
seven trillion. Again, See, I told you so. I knew
this was going to happen when Obama took it over.
You know, you got seven point six million job openings
in the United States right now. Most of these jobs
do not require a four year degree. They don't. It's
(25:12):
a problem. Mike Rowe making the point that I made
last week. The week before, we got almost seven million
able bodied men that are not in the workforce. They
just quit because you can here in the United States,
you can. We have a you know, you know, how
(25:36):
to play the safety nets and whatnot. A myriad of
different things. They don't work. We need tradesmen. And this
is what he said. He said, we took shop class
out of high school. We rob kids of the opportunity
to see what that kind of work even looks like.
(25:57):
We told a whole generation of kids that they were
blanking screwed if they didn't get a four year degree.
He makes the same point that I make nothing. In
this country. Nothing has gotten more expensive. Nothing, healthcare, homes,
(26:19):
it doesn't matter. Over the past forty years. Nothing has
become more expensive than a four year degree. Keep telling
kids that they're screwed if they don't spend all of
this money and get a college degree, and then we
lend them the money to go and do this again.
(26:42):
It's not tariff's people. We got to convince people that
you know what, again, it starts, I said, it starts
an eighth grade. It's you could start thinking about this.
You could start getting kids excited. Kids. We need people
that can build ships, and you get them on a
(27:05):
program at an age where you see whether or not
they like it. They can learn this trade. Then they
can finish high school and have a job paying six figures.
This is what needs to be done. This is the
intelligent way of changing it. Do we need to we
want to, you know again, change our workforce, rejigger our workforce.
(27:28):
Do we want to attract more manufacturing here to the
United States. Yes, but there's a right way and a
wrong way of doing it, and this is obviously the
wrong way. It's not working. I'm not worried about Walson.
(27:50):
Wall's trade is fine. They'll take care of itself. I'm
worried about mom and pop, mom and pops, small businesses,
my clients all across the country. Watchdog on Wall street
dot com
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