Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to brain Stuff production of iHeart Radio, Hey brain
Stuff Lauren vocal bomb here. As. The Atlantic hurricane season
began on June one nine and runs through November thirtieth,
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association predicted a range of
between nine and fifteen storms that would be big enough
to merit names. That is, storms with winds of thirty
(00:24):
nine miles per hour about sixty three kilometers per hour
or higher. Four to eight of these were predicted to
become hurricanes, and two to four of those were forecast
to become major hurricanes in category three, four, or five.
That is what sustained winds of a hundred and eleven
miles per hour or a hundred and seventy nine kilometers
per hour or higher. Those categories are from the SOFIA
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Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which explains the severity of damage
that can be expected from each hurricane category based on
the wind's ability to collapse roofs, walls, trees, and power
infrastructure at different beads. To aid in forecasting efforts, meteorologists
utilize visualizations called spaghetti models, also sometimes known as spahetti plots.
(01:09):
To a lay person, spaghetti models look like well, a
bunch of spaghetti strands thrown against a wall. In reality, though,
spahetti plots are a method of combining information from a
variety of predictive models onto one map to come up
with a picture of a hurricanes potential track. We spoke
with Daniel J. Leathers, a professor and director of the
(01:30):
Meteorology and Climatology Program at the University of Delaware. He
also serves as Delaware State Climatologist and as a co
director of the Delaware Environmental Observing System. He explained each
model that's used to predict hurricane paths and in many
cases intensity can have that path plotted on a map.
All of spaghetti plot does is take the results from
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all of these models and plot all of them on
the same map. To understand why spaghetti plots are important,
you have to understand that there are a whole bunch
of different modeling methods that are used to track hurricanes,
and like presidential election polls, for example, they don't all
produce the same results. The object of creating such a map,
according to Leathers, is to see the extent to which
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all the different models agree. He said, oh, when the
paths are very similar to one another. This means that
all the models are agreeing to a large extent about
the future path of the storm. In contrast, if the
individual plots are all over the place quote, then that
says that there is great uncertainty in the models about
where the storm will move in the future. Spetty plots
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are a way of seeing all of the model results
at one time and not relying on just one model
for a forecast. They are very helpful in conveying the
certainty or uncertainty of a forecast. The lines on the
chart indicate the different paths projected by the various models,
which have varying degrees of reliability. Leathers said. The models
include dynamical models using the physics of the atmosp fear,
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statistical models, and in some cases analog models to predict
the coming movement of an individual storm. These models come
from meteorological organizations from all across the globe of places
like the National Weather Service, the British met Office, universities
and so on. Some models are certainly thought to be
better than others, they are very different in how they
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make predictions and in what they are best at. So
what if any useful information can lay people get from
looking at spaghetti plots, A Lether's explains the most useful
information is the certainty of the forecast. Again, if all
the paths are very similar, the forecast certainty is high.
If the paths are very different, the certainty is low.
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If there's a great spread in the forecast tracks, then
that shows that the models are not doing a great
job as a suite in figuring out where this particular
storm is likely to move in the future. Some hurricane
models can be run in a few seconds on an
ordinary computer, while others may require hows of calculation by
a supercomputer. Spaghetti models have changed subtly over the years
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as computing power has improved and researchers have tweaked their
models based on the great volumes of data we humans
have been able to gather thanks to computers. Leathers says
the approach has evolved as more and more hurricane models
are run in real time, and as technology has allowed
for putting these models together into a spaghetti plot in
a timely manner. He predicts that the number of models
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and their sophistication is likely to continue to grow in
the years ahead. Today's episode were written by Patrick Jake
Hager and produced by Tyler. Playing brain Stuff is a
production of iHeart Radio's How Stuff Works. For more in
this and lots of other sustained topics, visit our home planet,
how stuff Works dot com. And for more podcasts for
(04:48):
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