What Are the Predictions for Hurricane Season 2021?

The Atlantic Ocean's 2021 hurricane season started strong and is expected to end the same way. Learn how the predictions are made and what they're saying in this episode of BrainStuff, based on this article: https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/climate-weather/storms/2021-atlantic-hurricane-season-news.htm

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to brain Stuff production of iHeart Radio. Hey brain Stuff,
Lauren bol Obam here. Hurricane season is already off to
a record start in the United States. At the time
of this recording, seven named storms have formed in the Atlantic,
including Hurricane Elsa, which became a hurricane on July two,

(00:23):
the earliest fifth named Atlantic hurricane since nineteen sixty six.
Elsa made landfall July seven in the Florida Panhandle as
a Category one storm. Now halfway through the hurricane season,
the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration or NOAH, released its annual mid season update on

(00:44):
August four, which suggests conditions are ripe for another above
average number of storms. The agency is predicting a busy,
though not record breaking season with fifteen to twenty one
named storms. That is, storms with winds of thirty nine
miles per hour or sixty two kilometers per hour or greater.

(01:04):
That includes seven to ten hurricanes, with three to five
of those likely to be Category three, four, or five.
The higher the category number, the higher the hurricanes winds,
and the more widespread and serious the damage is likely
to be. And this is up from noah's former predictions.
A meteorologists analyzed a mix of atmospheric and oceanic conditions

(01:26):
when updating the original forecast. In addition, in July, NOAH
declared a La Nina watch, which means there's a potential
for La Nina to develop during hurricane season. During a
news conference on August four, Matthew Rosencrans, Noah's lead hurricane
season forecaster, explained, quote La Nina occurs when there are

(01:49):
cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial region
of the Pacific Ocean, linked to weakening wind shear over
the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which favors more and
stronger Atlantic storms. A While conditions suggests that will be
a busy season, a Rosencranz said he doesn't believe it

(02:10):
will be as active as the record breaking season because
Atlantic sea surface temperatures aren't expected to be as warm
and so far are trending closer to average. Noah's update
to the outlook covers the entire six month hurricane season,
which runs from June one until November. The hurricane season

(02:31):
peaks in mid August through October. While NOAH and its
Climate Prediction Center are in charge of forecasts, it's the
National Hurricane Center that tracks storms that actually form and
predicts their paths, and the best track of a storm
can be made only about five to seven days out,
and that's why people living along the coast and in

(02:51):
low lying areas and regions prone to inland flooding need
to be prepared now. Rosencranz said, as we've seen in
re and years, threats from hurricanes are not limited to
damaging winds, but also dangerous storm surge and torrential rain
and wind flooding. Everyone should know their hurricane risk, have
a plan, and be prepared for the upcoming core of

(03:14):
the season. National Weather Service Director Lewis W. Eutelini, PhD,
said in a press statement. Now is the time for
families and communities to ensure their preparations are in place.
These storms can be devastating, so be prepared for all
possible outcomes by staying tuned to the forecast and following

(03:34):
safety information and possible evacuation notifications issued by emergency officials.
These storms can be devastating, so be prepared for all
possible outcomes by staying tuned to the forecast and following
safety information and possible evacuation notifications issued by emergency officials.

(03:58):
Today's episode is based on the article Atlantic hurricane season
is about to get a second win on how stuff
works dot com. Written by Sarah Blind. Brain Stuff is
a production of I Heart Radio in partnership with how
stuff works dot Com, and it is produced by Tyler Klein.
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