New Poll Shows Trump In Dead Heat In Suspected Blue State

By Jason Hall

April 10, 2024

Photo: Getty Images

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are reported to be locked in a statistical dead heat in Minnesota, a long suspected blue state, according to a new poll conducted by local news outlet KSTP through SurveyUSA.

Biden is reported to lead Trump, 44% to 42%, in the poll, which is reported to have "a credibility interval, similar to margin of error, of 4.9%," according to KSTP.

“When you have a 2-point race in a presidential year, you’ve got a competitive state,” said Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier. “One that both campaigns will probably pay attention to.”

An estimated 11% of respondents said they planned to vote for another candidate, while 4% said they were undecided. Many pollsters and pundits haven't previously considered Minnesota to be a potential "battleground" states to determine the presidency along with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though Schier said that could change after three consecutive polls showed Biden holding a lead over Trump within the margin of error.

“A lot of pundits and pollsters assume that Minnesota is a safe Democratic state in 2024,” Schier said. “This poll indicates that is not the case.”

The latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll included 39% of respondents who identify as Democrats, 36% who identify as Republicans and 22% who identify as independent. Earlier this week, reported that new polls suggested a massive electoral realignment with Trump having a significant increase in support among younger voters than the 2020 presidential election while Biden was stronger among senior voters than he was four years ago.

The NPR/PBS Newshour Marist College poll released last week reported that Trump had a two-point advantage among Millennial and Gen-Z voters, while Biden held an overall lead among voters 45 years and older. A FOX News poll released last month also reported that Trump had an 18-point lead over Biden among voters under 30 and by 21 points with independent and third-party candidates included.

Trump was also reported to be leading Biden in the swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia by a margin between one and three percentage points, as well as North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada by more than the margin of error of a Wall Street Journal survey released last week. The two candidates are also reportedly tied in Wisconsin, which Biden had previously won by a margin of 0.6% in the 2020 election.

The seven key swing states account for 93 of the 270 electoral college votes needed to be elected as president. A majority of respondents also said Trump was the better candidate to handle the economy (54%) and border security (52%), as well as 48% claiming Trump had the requisite mental and physical capabilities, compared to 28% favoring Biden's "mental and physical fitness needed to be president," according to the Wall Street Journal.

Last month, Trump was reported to have a slight edge over Biden in the first USA TODAY poll released after both officially secured their respective parties' nominations. Trump reportedly held a 40% to 38% advantage among respondents who were asked whom they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.

Additionally, one in four respondents said they could possibly change their minds about their current choice once the election takes place in November, which includes 14% of current Biden voters and 15% of current Trump voters. Biden did, however, see an increase in Americans reporting green shoots in the economy, which was the most positive assessment since the beginning of his presidency.

In February, Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found that Trump had a 46% to 44% advantage over Biden among Michigan voters in a potential 2024 presidential matchup, with 10% voting undecided. Biden did, however, gain momentum with a 3% increase from the previous Michigan 2024 head-to-head potential presidential poll conducted in January.

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