November 23, 2019 • 24 mins
Colin goes over his Blazing 5 picks with RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio who tells him which games the wise guys in Vegas agree or disagree with. Here are the games Colin and RJ go over in week 12:
Broncos @ Bills
Giants @ Bears
Raiders @ Jets
Seahawks @ Eagles
Cowboys @ Patriots
Plus, Colin reveals a 6th bonus pick exclusive to this podcast
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
As a social worker, you can become an advocate for
those who can't earn your Masters and Social Work degree
online to learn strategies to connect diverse populations with the
critical resources they need to improve their well being, whether
it's in a hospital, community service agency, or another setting.
What do you think making a difference as a social
worker looks like? GCU offers over two fifty high quality
(00:24):
online programs like this one. Find your purpose at Grand
Canyon University. Visit GCU dot E Do you, Mama, what
does the chicken say? Draft giraffe? Really? Giraffe? Giraffe? You're
not gonna get it all right. Just make sure you
(00:46):
know the big stuff, like making sure your kids are
buckled correctly in the right seat for their agent's eyes.
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(01:09):
Learn how it Belonging begins with us dot org brought
to you by the AD Council. Hi, everybody, welcome, back
to Saturday morning. I give you the blazing five. Then
we bring in R. J. Bell, But first my picks
blazing five from yesterday. Let's blaze it up. It's Collins
(01:31):
Blazing five, Bronchos and Bills. I'll take the Broncos plus
three and a half. I like the number here. This
is gonna be a low scoring game, and three and
a half is a lot of points. Listen, Denver got
after that bad start right there, all and four we
all sell our stock. But Denver now is a pretty
good football team. Nineteen sacks, which is tied for third
(01:54):
in the NFL since Week six. Look at their overall
defensive numbers top seven and the stuff that mat is
Vic Fangio knows what he's doing total defense, past defense.
By the way, since they went on four their three
and three in their last six, they have the number
two red zone defense, meaning they're gonna force you into
field goals and not touchdowns even if they don't win.
(02:16):
I'm betting a number here. I think it's the smart side,
one of my favorite picks. I'm gonna go Broncos with
an upset. Take the three and a half Giants. Like
the Giants. I love the Giants very quietly. Pat Shermer,
the coach, offensive guy, Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones first game
(02:38):
looked great, then he kind of spluttered around. If you
notice Daniel Jones in the last month since Week eight,
nine touchdowns, one pick, hundred seven quarterback rating. We're not
paying attention to him because we're a bad team, Like
we're not paying attention to Kyler Murray because they're a
bad teeth. Dangel Jones playing pretty good football right now.
Giants are coming off a by. Meanwhile, the Bears that
(02:58):
look like a broken foot ball team. To me, they're
certainly a broken offense. Anybody noticed Khalil Mack. I think
he's I think Khalil Max said I'm out for the year. God,
I'm not giving you my best. I think it's a
broken locker room. I think it's a broken football team
right now. The Giants offer by facing the worst offense
in the league, upset. I'll take New York in the points.
(03:20):
New York wins straight out. Raiders that Jet love the
Raiders in this game. I'll take Oakland minus three. First
of all, big offensive line advantage for the Raiders. They
have one of the better offensive lines in the league.
Maybe not Dallas or Pittsburgh, but good Jets have one
of the worst. Sam Donald's always running for his life.
It will be no difference this week. But I'll tell
you what I like about the Raiders. They've had the
(03:42):
toughest road schedule in the NFL, and guess what, They've
won five or seven on the road. They're averaging more
yards per play than any offense in the NFL on
the road. They have been road warriors this year. Road
is not a problem for them, and yards per play
is a huge Vegas staff, the Sharps and the wise
(04:03):
guys love it, and Vegas is number one in the
NFL on the road. They're also tied second in the
NFL sacks all out. They don't let you get the
Derek Carr. That's why his efficiency numbers are so high.
They have three capable running backs. I think this is
a time of possession game. I think the Jets tend
to have more turnovers. I only have to swallow three.
(04:24):
I like Oakland winning here in New York. Seattle plus
one and a half, I'm gonna take the points here.
Seattle's off of by the last six times they've been
off of by five and one. That's the best record
in the NFL in their last six by Seattle has
it Hall of fame coach gets an extra four or
(04:46):
five days to prepare. Philadelphia lost to Sewan Jackson. They
have no perimeter speed. I also think Seattle went and
got Josh Gordon and Jadaveon Clowney. They are a different
team than the team that lost to Baltimore. They've got
now a deep threat and an elite guy in space
on the outside, Russell Wilson. This year m v P
number one in everything that matters. Seattle is also a
(05:09):
rush for a hundred plus yards and all but one
of their games. What does that matter? When you go
on the road, you want to take the crowd out
of it in Philly not making a lot of noise.
If Seattle's picking up first downs, keeping the ball away
from Carson Wentz, Seattle wins twenty three. I'll take the
one and a half in the Hawks Cowboys at Patriots.
(05:33):
Mohammed Sanu is out. It's Julian Edelman, forty two year
old Tom Brady and cross your fingers. I'm gonna take
Dallas in six and a half, folks, Even if New
England wins. This is not a shootout game. It's gonna
be low scoring. Six and a half points is a
ton of points in a game I think could be
twenty four to twenty. The Patriots defense has come back
(05:54):
down to earth since Week eight. Why because they're played
quarterbacks who can actually play their third first in rushing
yards allowed, their eleventh and total yards allowed, their twelfth
and points per game. And the Cowboys are averaging thirty
two points since Week nine, top three in the NFL. Again,
no vertical threat, Mohammed's a new out. Finally, Isaiah Win
(06:15):
back at left tackle. Don't love their special teams. This
to me is a low scoring game. I'm gonna call
for the Cowboys to add a touchdown late, win straight
out and cover easily thirty two twenty three. I don't
care about the New England win streak streaks. And remember
(06:36):
Cam gave New England trouble. Russell Wilson's given him trouble
if Lamar Jackson gave him trouble. Quarterbacks that can move around,
give bella check. A little trouble Dat can move around,
easy win for Dallas in New England. Let's bring in
R J. Bell pregame dot Com straight at a Vegas
Fox Sports Radio six to seven Eastern. Let's start with
this Denver plus three and a half at Buffalo. Listen,
(07:00):
it's gonna be a low scoring game. You can figure
the weather. These are two limited offenses, and I'm betting
a number here Denver with over a field goal. Listen.
I also think there's some bitterness the way they lost
in Minnesota. I think Denver is the best bad NFL team.
I'm gonna take over a field goal here and what
I perceived to be a low scoring game. What do
(07:21):
the wise guys think? Agreement here? This is a classic
wise guy play. Why because you've got a underrated team,
a team whose scoreboard who's one lost record is not
all that good. Denver against the Buffalo team scoreboard one
loss is really good. Except the truth is the wise
guys considered Denver to be the better team, literally over Buffalo.
(07:46):
Let's look at d v o A Football Outsiders. They've
got Denver sixteen and they got Buffalo number twenty four.
So we're getting over a field goal with the better
team if you believe that. Now, Denver has covered five
five of the last six games, so it's like they've
been hot lately. Now we can talk about Drew lock
(08:07):
and this whole idea about what's he gonna be. But
Brandon Allen, who I was not an optimist about, he's
actually been able to execute on the offense at Denver
wants to run. Yes, and I'll tell you that. One
concern is how do they react to last week? They
let twenty nothing at Minnesota, which is very impressive. Then
(08:28):
they lost the game most amazingly, you will never see this.
They got the ball back Denver did down four on
their own forty two with six minutes left in the game,
Night team play, drive time expires. They couldn't go sixty
yards and night team players or six minutes. So not
a great offense, but neither does Buffalo. So I think
(08:49):
you're right. This is gonna be a close, low scoring
game likely and Denver plus the points sharp side, I'm
gonna take the Giants plus six at Chicago. First of all,
I think at Schermer there could be a sense he's
coaching for his job, real urgency with his coaching staff.
Daniel Jones Giants has gotten in the last month. He's
(09:10):
getting better. He can play, and he's getting better and
getting better protection. I think the Bears are a broken
offense and a broken team right now in a broken
locker room. I'm betting a number I like the Giants
plus six. What do the wise guys say? Agreement here?
And I think there's a sense. Oh, Bears. Not a
great offense last year, not a great offense this year. No, no, no, no.
(09:31):
It has gotten so much worse in the second half
of this season, meaning even the beginning of this year
wasn't so bad. Bears have lost five of six straight
up and against the spread. Now Trabisky six straight games
with the QBR under forty five. Remember QBR is a percentage,
so he's a blow average quarterback six straight games. The
(09:54):
team has had no games this entire season with more
than two thirty five passing here arts. I mean, this
is stuff from the seventies. They had more in two
thirty five and some games. And they're not really running
the ball that well. They've rushed for less than the
average yards per attempt seven of the last eight games,
so they're inefficient to Bears in every way. It's actually
(10:16):
gutten worse. Uh. I mean, if you look at net
yards per play, right, which is a wise guy favorite stat.
Six of the last six games they've lost compared to
their opponent, they have had a negative net yards per play.
On the other hand, you mentioned Daniel Jones number seventeen
and QB are quietly and last three games, nine touchdowns,
(10:38):
one interception only lasting Love this trend. NFO teams off
of by who have a four or greater game losing streak,
so they've lost four more straight games and they're on
the road, so they're not distracted by the home crowd
being mad atam or whatever. Those teams are twenty two
and eight against the spread, so think about it. Giants
(11:00):
have a big, long losing streak, they have a bye.
Now they get to go on the road and take
care of business. Love the Giants. When others treat your
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Glenn Mine is three at the Jets. I'll take the Raiders.
Big offensive line edge, quarterback will be more comfortable. I
think they have an offensive efficiency edge, and they've won
(12:47):
five of six one score games. This is a team
that's starting to believe in itself. I think the Raiders
are getting better the first month. Raiders and now are
two different teams. And the Raiders have had the toughest
road sc eduble have a winning record. Jets have had
the easiest schedule road schedule, and look at their record.
Um Now, some of this is folk mixed in early
(13:08):
with the injuries to Sam Donald, and I do think
the Jets offense is spunky, fun and can be surprisingly
big play because of Donald. But I think Oakland's a
real team here, and I'm gonna swallow the three. What
are the wise guys think? You know? Colin? I'm often
asked recently, it's like, well, r J, you're a national
radio host. Now your ratings are up since January. I
(13:30):
don't know if you saw that. And they say why
would you still do a podcast with Colin? It's cause
of moments like this. I get to tell you how
square your pick is. Oh my gosh, this is bad.
Now I get it. You feel bad about the whole
idea of Well, I was so against Gruden and I
was so wrong. Maybe I gotta redeem myself. No, no, no, no,
(13:52):
this is an example. You said it. Jets are underrated
because of those Folk games. Yes, that's the quarterback's name.
Those games. Because of that, the whole season is kind
of off if you look at the numbers. But let's
look at some other numbers here. This is the biggest
road favorite of the Grudine era. Okay, only the second
time they've been favored on the road. Now, the Raiders
(14:15):
have won five of six one score games, so that
means in the long run, those are supposed to even out. Additionally,
they've scored more touchdowns than field goals by a ratio
far above what you would expect from an average offense,
so that would regress. Also, the Jets can stop the
run literally. Since Week eight they're given up two point
(14:37):
one yards per rush. The NFL averages double that almost
So Josh Jacobs, I'm not sure what he does. And finally,
to me, this is situation where the points are gonna
be at a premium and I expect even the score
I expect. I guess my main point finally would be
Gruten's not gonna be afraid of an old school game,
(15:00):
so they do play that old school game. Getting three
is very valuable. I don't want to lay three like you,
so disagreement. I'm gonna take Seattle plus one and a
half at Philadelphia. Greg co sell Um has been telling
me for the last three weeks. Philadelphia is the slowest
offense in the NFL. They're very easy to defend, and
Seattle Pete Carroll off of by getting points. And I
(15:23):
also think Seattle is one of those teams with Josh
Gordon and Jadavion Clowney. They brought in two real playmakers,
one on both sides of the ball. They're not the
team that played against Baltimore. I think Seattle is a
team you don't want any piece of now um. I
think they don't make many mistakes. Russell Wilson rarely makes one.
Again off of by getting points. I don't think Philadelphia,
(15:46):
which has some offensive line issues I worry about, has
the pop to win this game. What are the wise
guys think? This is a game I switched on, I
was with you a couple of days ago. The deeper
I do, I'm on Philly. So disagreement, let's agree with
the following. You're right, Seattle is one of the teams
(16:08):
if you look at their whole season, you're probably not
getting as good a fuel as what the team is today.
And I think Clowney is a good example of that.
But I would make the case that's the case with Philly. Also,
if you look at their d v o A last
seven games, they've been good in five of those games,
and it's only because the games they've lost have been
(16:29):
more bigger name games. They've been because they did They've
have had, let's be honest, some really disappointing results, but
that's been the premier games. But if you look at
the last seven or so, they've done very well. Now
just pulling up the stat Yeah, so if you look
at the idea of Seattle in their close games, because again,
(16:52):
close games that you can say Russell Wilson's gonna win those,
but the reality is in the long run, almost every
team average is out about half their close games they
win half they lose. With this season, Seattle was seven
and one in close games. Think about this, They're an
eight and two team. They've outscored their opponents by twenty
one points. So how can you outscore your opponents by
(17:15):
twenty one points and have six more wins than you
do losses? So I think in general this is a
matter of Philadelphia. Maybe this is for their season, they're
extra motivated. Seattle is motivated to they're off of by
but Seattle is just not as good as their record
or laying less than a field goal. Philly is the
sharp side. I'm gonna take Dallas. Mohammed Sanu is out,
(17:37):
meaning it's basically Julian Edelman, no deep threat b running
backs and Isaiah wins Back at left tackle. I think
it's a low scoring game with New England and Dallas.
Six and a half feels two big. I know Belichick first,
Jason Garrett is clearly the disadvantage, but I think eight
of the top ten players in this game are now
pet Cowboys. Outside of the secondary, they have the better unit. Um,
(18:01):
you know it's not gonna be snowing. We don't have
a blizzard here, And I just this really comes down
to a simple thing. If New England wins, I think
it has to be low scoring. Um, they're not averaging much.
This is not a very good running team. The offensive
line's gotta back up at center, left tackle. They're special
teams now are a little enigmatic on a third kicker.
Brady has been snippy at press conferences. Mohammed Sanu again out.
(18:24):
I think it's if New England wins, it feels very
twenty three twenty to me. Dac tends to keep the
Cowboys close. They don't get blown out much. I'm gonna
go Dallas plus six and a half. One of the
wise guys, think you know something. I I agree with
you in in this regard about the offense with New England,
but I cannot play Garrett over balochak so disagreement. And
(18:48):
let me tell you've had a lot of people work
for you over the years. Did you ever have one
of those guys that no matter what or goals, there
was gonna be a situation where their car broke down,
or or their moms in town. This is the Garrett
situation where we're gonna on Monday, we're gonna all be saying,
how did Dallas lose that game, and if any team
(19:10):
wins the games are not supposed to, it's Belichick. If
there's any team that loses the games they're not supposed to,
it's Dallas and Garrett. So you're right if you look
at the stats and you say to yourself, well, Brady,
if you look at him since the first three games
since then, seven touchdowns, five interceptions, So nothing special there.
His QBR is number fifteen. Running the ball only two
(19:35):
of ten games is New England had more than three
and a half yards per carry, So they can't run
the ball. But remember we talked about Seattle. They aimed
to outgained opponents or outpointed by one. New England's outpointed
their opponents by one and seventy nine. So how are
they doing it? I don't know, but I know this
(19:56):
New England at home twenty and oh straight up, last
twenty games, we're England against the spread sixteen and four.
So you're going against Belichick with Garrett in a sixteen
and four spot. Good luck. When others treat your fries
as an afterthought, oh you're left with our cold, soggy fries.
That's why Wendy's New Fries are ones you won't forget,
guaranteed to be hot and crispy, or will replace them.
(20:19):
We're talking natural cut skin on fries, perfectly seasoned with
a hint of sea salt. In fact, they're even preferred
almost two to one over McDonald's. These are fries so
hot and crispy they beg a new question. What would
you like trying them? Today? Holy Edwinds participating us Wendy's
taste preference based on a national taste test play Independent
Research Compty. What grows in the forest trees? Sure you
(20:42):
know what else grows in the forest. Our imagination, our
sense of wonder, and our family bonds grow too, because
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(21:02):
discover the fourth dot Org, brought to you by the
United States Forest Service and the AD Council. Finally, the
bonus pick uh yeah, I like road teams this week.
I like Denver, the Giants, Raiders, Seattle, and Dallas, so
clearly I'm on the road teams. I would probably take
Baltimore minus three and a half. I think the rams,
there's a Todd Gurley is a not the same back.
(21:23):
I still think the interior of their offensive line is
below average. Baltimore is just one of those hot, healthy
teams that believes in themselves. There's there's something in that
in that room. They're blowing out teams. I would probably
go Baltimore bonus pick. What would the wise guys say?
I think a lot would agree with you. I'm gonna disagree,
(21:45):
and here's why. First off, let's give Baltimore an amazing
compliment in the last four games, and it doesn't feel arbitrary.
This is since they got Peters and also Jimmy Smith
is back cornerback. Since then, maybe the best four games
we've seen in five ten years in the NFL. I'm
not over exaggerating. If you just look at the A T.
(22:06):
S margin, they have been plus ninety two points in
four games. I mean, you just don't see that. They
haven't had one game closer than seventeen points within the spread.
So why not play them with This line is starting
to really account for that. You might think road favorite.
It's only three. That means Baltimore would be a nine
point favorite at home. Boy, that doesn't seem cheap. Finally,
(22:29):
let's give Mike Lombardi credit x AS and those guy
is the teams that Lamar is gonna struggle against can
get pressure from the middle, because what's happened is Lamar's
If you get pressure from the end, he loops inside
of the ends but outside of the interior lineman. Thus
he gets out of the pocket. If you get pressure
(22:50):
up the middle and the lineman on the outside don't
have to rush up the field, that's tougher on a
running quarterback. To me, that makes me think, why, how
finally a defense it might be able to do something
against Lamar. By the way, if Lamar dominates this Rams defense,
it's gonna be a great sign. Pregame dot COM's r
(23:10):
J Bell straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio
six to seven Eastern. Have a great weekend, r J.
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We've all felt left out, and for people who moved
to this country, that feeling lasts more than a moment.
(23:55):
We can change that. Learn how it belonging begins with
us dot org. Brought to you by the AD Council.
Look for your children's eyes and you will discover the
true magic of a forest. Find a forest near you
and start exploring it. Discover the Forest dot org brought
to you by the United States Forest Service and the
(24:17):
AD Council.
As a social worker, you can become an advocate for
those who can't earn your Masters and Social Work degree
online to learn strategies to connect diverse populations with the
critical resources they need to improve their well being, whether
it's in a hospital, community service agency, or another setting.
What do you think making a difference as a social
worker looks like? GCU offers over two fifty high quality
(00:24):
online programs like this one. Find your purpose at Grand
Canyon University. Visit GCU dot E Do you, Mama, what
does the chicken say? Draft giraffe? Really? Giraffe? Giraffe? You're
not gonna get it all right. Just make sure you
(00:46):
know the big stuff, like making sure your kids are
buckled correctly in the right seat for their agent's eyes.
Get it right visits n h S A dot gov
slash the Right Seat brought to you by the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration. In the AD Council, we've all
felt left out, and for people who moved to this country,
that feeling lasts more than a moment. We can change that.
(01:09):
Learn how it Belonging begins with us dot org brought
to you by the AD Council. Hi, everybody, welcome, back
to Saturday morning. I give you the blazing five. Then
we bring in R. J. Bell, But first my picks
blazing five from yesterday. Let's blaze it up. It's Collins
(01:31):
Blazing five, Bronchos and Bills. I'll take the Broncos plus
three and a half. I like the number here. This
is gonna be a low scoring game, and three and
a half is a lot of points. Listen, Denver got
after that bad start right there, all and four we
all sell our stock. But Denver now is a pretty
good football team. Nineteen sacks, which is tied for third
(01:54):
in the NFL since Week six. Look at their overall
defensive numbers top seven and the stuff that mat is
Vic Fangio knows what he's doing total defense, past defense.
By the way, since they went on four their three
and three in their last six, they have the number
two red zone defense, meaning they're gonna force you into
field goals and not touchdowns even if they don't win.
(02:16):
I'm betting a number here. I think it's the smart side,
one of my favorite picks. I'm gonna go Broncos with
an upset. Take the three and a half Giants. Like
the Giants. I love the Giants very quietly. Pat Shermer,
the coach, offensive guy, Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones first game
(02:38):
looked great, then he kind of spluttered around. If you
notice Daniel Jones in the last month since Week eight,
nine touchdowns, one pick, hundred seven quarterback rating. We're not
paying attention to him because we're a bad team, Like
we're not paying attention to Kyler Murray because they're a
bad teeth. Dangel Jones playing pretty good football right now.
Giants are coming off a by. Meanwhile, the Bears that
(02:58):
look like a broken foot ball team. To me, they're
certainly a broken offense. Anybody noticed Khalil Mack. I think
he's I think Khalil Max said I'm out for the year. God,
I'm not giving you my best. I think it's a
broken locker room. I think it's a broken football team
right now. The Giants offer by facing the worst offense
in the league, upset. I'll take New York in the points.
(03:20):
New York wins straight out. Raiders that Jet love the
Raiders in this game. I'll take Oakland minus three. First
of all, big offensive line advantage for the Raiders. They
have one of the better offensive lines in the league.
Maybe not Dallas or Pittsburgh, but good Jets have one
of the worst. Sam Donald's always running for his life.
It will be no difference this week. But I'll tell
you what I like about the Raiders. They've had the
(03:42):
toughest road schedule in the NFL, and guess what, They've
won five or seven on the road. They're averaging more
yards per play than any offense in the NFL on
the road. They have been road warriors this year. Road
is not a problem for them, and yards per play
is a huge Vegas staff, the Sharps and the wise
(04:03):
guys love it, and Vegas is number one in the
NFL on the road. They're also tied second in the
NFL sacks all out. They don't let you get the
Derek Carr. That's why his efficiency numbers are so high.
They have three capable running backs. I think this is
a time of possession game. I think the Jets tend
to have more turnovers. I only have to swallow three.
(04:24):
I like Oakland winning here in New York. Seattle plus
one and a half, I'm gonna take the points here.
Seattle's off of by the last six times they've been
off of by five and one. That's the best record
in the NFL in their last six by Seattle has
it Hall of fame coach gets an extra four or
(04:46):
five days to prepare. Philadelphia lost to Sewan Jackson. They
have no perimeter speed. I also think Seattle went and
got Josh Gordon and Jadaveon Clowney. They are a different
team than the team that lost to Baltimore. They've got
now a deep threat and an elite guy in space
on the outside, Russell Wilson. This year m v P
number one in everything that matters. Seattle is also a
(05:09):
rush for a hundred plus yards and all but one
of their games. What does that matter? When you go
on the road, you want to take the crowd out
of it in Philly not making a lot of noise.
If Seattle's picking up first downs, keeping the ball away
from Carson Wentz, Seattle wins twenty three. I'll take the
one and a half in the Hawks Cowboys at Patriots.
(05:33):
Mohammed Sanu is out. It's Julian Edelman, forty two year
old Tom Brady and cross your fingers. I'm gonna take
Dallas in six and a half, folks, Even if New
England wins. This is not a shootout game. It's gonna
be low scoring. Six and a half points is a
ton of points in a game I think could be
twenty four to twenty. The Patriots defense has come back
(05:54):
down to earth since Week eight. Why because they're played
quarterbacks who can actually play their third first in rushing
yards allowed, their eleventh and total yards allowed, their twelfth
and points per game. And the Cowboys are averaging thirty
two points since Week nine, top three in the NFL. Again,
no vertical threat, Mohammed's a new out. Finally, Isaiah Win
(06:15):
back at left tackle. Don't love their special teams. This
to me is a low scoring game. I'm gonna call
for the Cowboys to add a touchdown late, win straight
out and cover easily thirty two twenty three. I don't
care about the New England win streak streaks. And remember
(06:36):
Cam gave New England trouble. Russell Wilson's given him trouble
if Lamar Jackson gave him trouble. Quarterbacks that can move around,
give bella check. A little trouble Dat can move around,
easy win for Dallas in New England. Let's bring in
R J. Bell pregame dot Com straight at a Vegas
Fox Sports Radio six to seven Eastern. Let's start with
this Denver plus three and a half at Buffalo. Listen,
(07:00):
it's gonna be a low scoring game. You can figure
the weather. These are two limited offenses, and I'm betting
a number here Denver with over a field goal. Listen.
I also think there's some bitterness the way they lost
in Minnesota. I think Denver is the best bad NFL team.
I'm gonna take over a field goal here and what
I perceived to be a low scoring game. What do
(07:21):
the wise guys think? Agreement here? This is a classic
wise guy play. Why because you've got a underrated team,
a team whose scoreboard who's one lost record is not
all that good. Denver against the Buffalo team scoreboard one
loss is really good. Except the truth is the wise
guys considered Denver to be the better team, literally over Buffalo.
(07:46):
Let's look at d v o A Football Outsiders. They've
got Denver sixteen and they got Buffalo number twenty four.
So we're getting over a field goal with the better
team if you believe that. Now, Denver has covered five
five of the last six games, so it's like they've
been hot lately. Now we can talk about Drew lock
(08:07):
and this whole idea about what's he gonna be. But
Brandon Allen, who I was not an optimist about, he's
actually been able to execute on the offense at Denver
wants to run. Yes, and I'll tell you that. One
concern is how do they react to last week? They
let twenty nothing at Minnesota, which is very impressive. Then
(08:28):
they lost the game most amazingly, you will never see this.
They got the ball back Denver did down four on
their own forty two with six minutes left in the game,
Night team play, drive time expires. They couldn't go sixty
yards and night team players or six minutes. So not
a great offense, but neither does Buffalo. So I think
(08:49):
you're right. This is gonna be a close, low scoring
game likely and Denver plus the points sharp side, I'm
gonna take the Giants plus six at Chicago. First of all,
I think at Schermer there could be a sense he's
coaching for his job, real urgency with his coaching staff.
Daniel Jones Giants has gotten in the last month. He's
(09:10):
getting better. He can play, and he's getting better and
getting better protection. I think the Bears are a broken
offense and a broken team right now in a broken
locker room. I'm betting a number I like the Giants
plus six. What do the wise guys say? Agreement here?
And I think there's a sense. Oh, Bears. Not a
great offense last year, not a great offense this year. No, no, no, no.
(09:31):
It has gotten so much worse in the second half
of this season, meaning even the beginning of this year
wasn't so bad. Bears have lost five of six straight
up and against the spread. Now Trabisky six straight games
with the QBR under forty five. Remember QBR is a percentage,
so he's a blow average quarterback six straight games. The
(09:54):
team has had no games this entire season with more
than two thirty five passing here arts. I mean, this
is stuff from the seventies. They had more in two
thirty five and some games. And they're not really running
the ball that well. They've rushed for less than the
average yards per attempt seven of the last eight games,
so they're inefficient to Bears in every way. It's actually
(10:16):
gutten worse. Uh. I mean, if you look at net
yards per play, right, which is a wise guy favorite stat.
Six of the last six games they've lost compared to
their opponent, they have had a negative net yards per play.
On the other hand, you mentioned Daniel Jones number seventeen
and QB are quietly and last three games, nine touchdowns,
(10:38):
one interception only lasting Love this trend. NFO teams off
of by who have a four or greater game losing streak,
so they've lost four more straight games and they're on
the road, so they're not distracted by the home crowd
being mad atam or whatever. Those teams are twenty two
and eight against the spread, so think about it. Giants
(11:00):
have a big, long losing streak, they have a bye.
Now they get to go on the road and take
care of business. Love the Giants. When others treat your
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They're fearless. Guide. Is this fascinating? Were help find a
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Visit adopt us Kids dot org slash podcast, or subscribe
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Glenn Mine is three at the Jets. I'll take the Raiders.
Big offensive line edge, quarterback will be more comfortable. I
think they have an offensive efficiency edge, and they've won
(12:47):
five of six one score games. This is a team
that's starting to believe in itself. I think the Raiders
are getting better the first month. Raiders and now are
two different teams. And the Raiders have had the toughest
road sc eduble have a winning record. Jets have had
the easiest schedule road schedule, and look at their record.
Um Now, some of this is folk mixed in early
(13:08):
with the injuries to Sam Donald, and I do think
the Jets offense is spunky, fun and can be surprisingly
big play because of Donald. But I think Oakland's a
real team here, and I'm gonna swallow the three. What
are the wise guys think? You know? Colin? I'm often
asked recently, it's like, well, r J, you're a national
radio host. Now your ratings are up since January. I
(13:30):
don't know if you saw that. And they say why
would you still do a podcast with Colin? It's cause
of moments like this. I get to tell you how
square your pick is. Oh my gosh, this is bad.
Now I get it. You feel bad about the whole
idea of Well, I was so against Gruden and I
was so wrong. Maybe I gotta redeem myself. No, no, no, no,
(13:52):
this is an example. You said it. Jets are underrated
because of those Folk games. Yes, that's the quarterback's name.
Those games. Because of that, the whole season is kind
of off if you look at the numbers. But let's
look at some other numbers here. This is the biggest
road favorite of the Grudine era. Okay, only the second
time they've been favored on the road. Now, the Raiders
(14:15):
have won five of six one score games, so that
means in the long run, those are supposed to even out. Additionally,
they've scored more touchdowns than field goals by a ratio
far above what you would expect from an average offense,
so that would regress. Also, the Jets can stop the
run literally. Since Week eight they're given up two point
(14:37):
one yards per rush. The NFL averages double that almost
So Josh Jacobs, I'm not sure what he does. And finally,
to me, this is situation where the points are gonna
be at a premium and I expect even the score
I expect. I guess my main point finally would be
Gruten's not gonna be afraid of an old school game,
(15:00):
so they do play that old school game. Getting three
is very valuable. I don't want to lay three like you,
so disagreement. I'm gonna take Seattle plus one and a
half at Philadelphia. Greg co sell Um has been telling
me for the last three weeks. Philadelphia is the slowest
offense in the NFL. They're very easy to defend, and
Seattle Pete Carroll off of by getting points. And I
(15:23):
also think Seattle is one of those teams with Josh
Gordon and Jadavion Clowney. They brought in two real playmakers,
one on both sides of the ball. They're not the
team that played against Baltimore. I think Seattle is a
team you don't want any piece of now um. I
think they don't make many mistakes. Russell Wilson rarely makes one.
Again off of by getting points. I don't think Philadelphia,
(15:46):
which has some offensive line issues I worry about, has
the pop to win this game. What are the wise
guys think? This is a game I switched on, I
was with you a couple of days ago. The deeper
I do, I'm on Philly. So disagreement, let's agree with
the following. You're right, Seattle is one of the teams
(16:08):
if you look at their whole season, you're probably not
getting as good a fuel as what the team is today.
And I think Clowney is a good example of that.
But I would make the case that's the case with Philly. Also,
if you look at their d v o A last
seven games, they've been good in five of those games,
and it's only because the games they've lost have been
(16:29):
more bigger name games. They've been because they did They've
have had, let's be honest, some really disappointing results, but
that's been the premier games. But if you look at
the last seven or so, they've done very well. Now
just pulling up the stat Yeah, so if you look
at the idea of Seattle in their close games, because again,
(16:52):
close games that you can say Russell Wilson's gonna win those,
but the reality is in the long run, almost every
team average is out about half their close games they
win half they lose. With this season, Seattle was seven
and one in close games. Think about this, They're an
eight and two team. They've outscored their opponents by twenty
one points. So how can you outscore your opponents by
(17:15):
twenty one points and have six more wins than you
do losses? So I think in general this is a
matter of Philadelphia. Maybe this is for their season, they're
extra motivated. Seattle is motivated to they're off of by
but Seattle is just not as good as their record
or laying less than a field goal. Philly is the
sharp side. I'm gonna take Dallas. Mohammed Sanu is out,
(17:37):
meaning it's basically Julian Edelman, no deep threat b running
backs and Isaiah wins Back at left tackle. I think
it's a low scoring game with New England and Dallas.
Six and a half feels two big. I know Belichick first,
Jason Garrett is clearly the disadvantage, but I think eight
of the top ten players in this game are now
pet Cowboys. Outside of the secondary, they have the better unit. Um,
(18:01):
you know it's not gonna be snowing. We don't have
a blizzard here, And I just this really comes down
to a simple thing. If New England wins, I think
it has to be low scoring. Um, they're not averaging much.
This is not a very good running team. The offensive
line's gotta back up at center, left tackle. They're special
teams now are a little enigmatic on a third kicker.
Brady has been snippy at press conferences. Mohammed Sanu again out.
(18:24):
I think it's if New England wins, it feels very
twenty three twenty to me. Dac tends to keep the
Cowboys close. They don't get blown out much. I'm gonna
go Dallas plus six and a half. One of the
wise guys, think you know something. I I agree with
you in in this regard about the offense with New England,
but I cannot play Garrett over balochak so disagreement. And
(18:48):
let me tell you've had a lot of people work
for you over the years. Did you ever have one
of those guys that no matter what or goals, there
was gonna be a situation where their car broke down,
or or their moms in town. This is the Garrett
situation where we're gonna on Monday, we're gonna all be saying,
how did Dallas lose that game, and if any team
(19:10):
wins the games are not supposed to, it's Belichick. If
there's any team that loses the games they're not supposed to,
it's Dallas and Garrett. So you're right if you look
at the stats and you say to yourself, well, Brady,
if you look at him since the first three games
since then, seven touchdowns, five interceptions, So nothing special there.
His QBR is number fifteen. Running the ball only two
(19:35):
of ten games is New England had more than three
and a half yards per carry, So they can't run
the ball. But remember we talked about Seattle. They aimed
to outgained opponents or outpointed by one. New England's outpointed
their opponents by one and seventy nine. So how are
they doing it? I don't know, but I know this
(19:56):
New England at home twenty and oh straight up, last
twenty games, we're England against the spread sixteen and four.
So you're going against Belichick with Garrett in a sixteen
and four spot. Good luck. When others treat your fries
as an afterthought, oh you're left with our cold, soggy fries.
That's why Wendy's New Fries are ones you won't forget,
guaranteed to be hot and crispy, or will replace them.
(20:19):
We're talking natural cut skin on fries, perfectly seasoned with
a hint of sea salt. In fact, they're even preferred
almost two to one over McDonald's. These are fries so
hot and crispy they beg a new question. What would
you like trying them? Today? Holy Edwinds participating us Wendy's
taste preference based on a national taste test play Independent
Research Compty. What grows in the forest trees? Sure you
(20:42):
know what else grows in the forest. Our imagination, our
sense of wonder, and our family bonds grow too, because
when we disconnect from this and connect with this, we
reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than you think.
Find a four wist near you and start exploring. I
(21:02):
discover the fourth dot Org, brought to you by the
United States Forest Service and the AD Council. Finally, the
bonus pick uh yeah, I like road teams this week.
I like Denver, the Giants, Raiders, Seattle, and Dallas, so
clearly I'm on the road teams. I would probably take
Baltimore minus three and a half. I think the rams,
there's a Todd Gurley is a not the same back.
(21:23):
I still think the interior of their offensive line is
below average. Baltimore is just one of those hot, healthy
teams that believes in themselves. There's there's something in that
in that room. They're blowing out teams. I would probably
go Baltimore bonus pick. What would the wise guys say?
I think a lot would agree with you. I'm gonna disagree,
(21:45):
and here's why. First off, let's give Baltimore an amazing
compliment in the last four games, and it doesn't feel arbitrary.
This is since they got Peters and also Jimmy Smith
is back cornerback. Since then, maybe the best four games
we've seen in five ten years in the NFL. I'm
not over exaggerating. If you just look at the A T.
(22:06):
S margin, they have been plus ninety two points in
four games. I mean, you just don't see that. They
haven't had one game closer than seventeen points within the spread.
So why not play them with This line is starting
to really account for that. You might think road favorite.
It's only three. That means Baltimore would be a nine
point favorite at home. Boy, that doesn't seem cheap. Finally,
(22:29):
let's give Mike Lombardi credit x AS and those guy
is the teams that Lamar is gonna struggle against can
get pressure from the middle, because what's happened is Lamar's
If you get pressure from the end, he loops inside
of the ends but outside of the interior lineman. Thus
he gets out of the pocket. If you get pressure
(22:50):
up the middle and the lineman on the outside don't
have to rush up the field, that's tougher on a
running quarterback. To me, that makes me think, why, how
finally a defense it might be able to do something
against Lamar. By the way, if Lamar dominates this Rams defense,
it's gonna be a great sign. Pregame dot COM's r
(23:10):
J Bell straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio
six to seven Eastern. Have a great weekend, r J.
Thank you. If you love to be remembered as the
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To order today, visit one hundred flowers dot com slash
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We've all felt left out, and for people who moved
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We can change that. Learn how it belonging begins with
us dot org. Brought to you by the AD Council.
Look for your children's eyes and you will discover the
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and start exploring it. Discover the Forest dot org brought
to you by the United States Forest Service and the
(24:17):
AD Council.
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