November 2, 2019 • 28 mins
Colin goes over his Blazing 5 picks with RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio who tells him which games the wise guys in Vegas agree or disagree with. Here are the games Colin and RJ go over in week 9:
Colts @ Steelers
Lions @ Raiders
Browns @ Broncos
Packers @ Chargers
Patriots @ Ravens
Plus, Colin reveals a 6th bonus pick exclusive to this podcast.
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Episode Transcript
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It's Saturday. R J. Bell pregame dot Com. But first,
my blazing five picks. I don't want to go into detail,
but I've struggled recently. Here you go, let's blaze it off,
(01:32):
fired up, It's Collins blazing five cold sits Steelers. I'm
gonna take the Colts minus one and a half here.
First of all, I think they're playing for a division Houston,
and the Colts playing for that division Jacksonville, Tennessee not
far behind, so there's a real sense of urgency for
the Colts. James Conner. They're running back not practicing for
(01:53):
the Steelers, so now they won't be able to run
the ball, and they have an incredibly limited passing offense.
Steelers twenty eight in the league in offense. By the way,
the Colts used to be an Andrew Luck story. Now
they're a defensive story. Their defense in October fifth and
points allowed eighth and sacks tied for fifth and third
down percentage. I think they're very well coached. They're on
(02:15):
a three game winning streak, and their defense is playing
excellent football. I think the Colts go on the road
and they beat the Steelers to three Detroit and Oakland.
This this is a game that is interesting Oakland has
not played at home for a long time. Right their schedule,
so Oakland and that fan base are gonna be crazy.
(02:40):
Detroit Matt stafford this report. He's sick, has a cold,
not going in full strength. Detroit's beat up physically. Meanwhile,
the Raiders think about this, think out tough. Their schedule
has been the Bears in London, at Houston, at Indian
at Green Bay. Most travel g araphically in the league,
(03:01):
and here they are pretty darn good football team. And
all I gotta gives up give up is less than
a field goal. The Detroit Lions are great in the
first quarter. They are dreadful everywhere else. In second quarter scoring,
third quarter scoring, in fourth quarter scoring. Derek Carr in
(03:23):
the last month has been on fire. He's in a
group with John Gruden, completing of his throws. The Raiders
win by a touchdown. Good to have him back in
the Bay Area. Thirt Cleveland and Denver one of my
bets of the year. I'll take Cleveland to blow out
the Broncos take the Browns minus three and a half.
(03:45):
Denver has nothing to play for. They're starting a quarterback
Brandon Allen who's never taken an NFL snap. It's one
of the worst offensive lines and maybe the worst left
tackle in the NFL. And Cleveland's defense is as healthy
as it's been all year. The Broncos have allowed twenty
seven sacks, bottom six in the league. The Browns top
(04:06):
six in sacks. This is a pop gun offense. Now
with a backup quarterback, Nick Chubb will take the pressure
off Baker. Cleveland goes into town runs the football dominates.
I think Denver is gonna struggle to get first downs
thirty three to ten Browns and an utter blowout, and
(04:28):
you'll see it early. Green Bay in Los Angeles, it's
actually a home game for the Packers, it is. There
are suggesting it will be the most lobsided road crowd
in the chargers brief history in their stadium, eighty percent
Packer fans. I'll take Green Bay minus three and a half. Listen,
(04:49):
this is one of these picks years ago. If I
got a home team Philip Rivers and Oprah field Goal,
you always take the Chargers. Their offensive line is weak,
they can't run the ball for up. Rivers is now
an older, unathletic quarterback. I mean, they just struggle to
get consistent yards green Bay. Best defense in years, best
running game in years, now gets Davante Adams back. Aaron
(05:13):
Rodgers last two weeks without him, has been absolutely on fire.
Leads the league in ten interception ratio and passer rating.
Philip rivers last week through for two hundred yards and
and and by the way, that's getting the ball in
good field position because Trabinsky can't move the chains. I
like the Packers to win this game. I do think
(05:35):
the Chargers will make a game of it, but I'm
gonna swallow the three and a half and take Aaron
Rodgers and the Vante Adams back. New England and Baltimore.
I'm gonna take the Patriots. Don't overthink the room on this.
Baltimore's big win is Seattle. I'm not sure how good
Seattle is. I gotta be honest. They're They're like a
(05:56):
football away from not not battling for fourth in their
division Nippy they beat Cincinnati. Um. Baltimore is good team,
They're not a special team. Lamar Jackson is fun and
can run like crazy, but New England controls the football.
Mohammed Sanu Edelman, Jacobe Myers middle of the field, and
(06:19):
New England's defense is first in everything. Don't outthink the
room here. Patriots have twenty one straight games against first
or second year quarterbacks. They've won. New England's going to
control the ball, middle of the field, take a lead.
Not it's in Baltimore. It's gonna be crazy. But just
don't out think the room here, young quarterback against the
(06:41):
great defense. Now with Mohammed Sanu, there's more of an
identity with New England's offense here. This is an easy
three to swallow. I like Lamar. This is a tough
spot here. New England thirty Baltimore three. Swallow the points.
Also Baltimore's defense here that this is not Baltimore revolt.
(07:02):
Their offense is far more productive than their defense. Brady
is gonna have time to throw in this game. He
didn't have time to throw against Cleveland last week. He'll
have time this week to throw. And I like the
Patriots here to win hand to cover. All right. R
J hosts Straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio
six to seven. Listen to it all the time, by
the way, get all sorts of good information. All right,
(07:24):
let's start with this Indianapolis minus one at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh
now I don't know what kind of running game they're
gonna have because James Conner's all banged up, and I
think it's a limited passing game to begin with. And frankly,
I like Indianapolis's defense. I like their coach. I like
their offensive line. You know, minus one feels like a
(07:46):
pick um. I just think the Colts win a close game.
What are the wise guys thing? Okay, I'm giving you agreement,
r J's agreement, though most wise guys, most Sharps would
disagree here. Okay. As a Steelers fan, I follow this
team very close. They I question their motivation in this spot.
You might say, wait a minute, they're at home. They're
(08:06):
at home, underdog. Listen, this team's exceeded expectations. They've had
some wins you wouldn't necessarily expect. And when they get
fat and happy, you saw it on Monday night. They
barely can't well they you know, got the thirteen, but
they were in a bad spot in that game. And
this feels like a situation where it's home and home,
the team can be a little lax. I wonder about motivation, though,
(08:28):
I think anyone who doesn't follow this team would say, boy,
that doesn't sound right. We'll watch. I'll be interested to
see it. Now, let's talk about the Coats injuries early
in the year. They've had some decimated games, games where
you almost got to throw them out because he hadn't
missed so many players. What ends up happening, calling is
those teams become underrated because you're looking at the score saying, oh,
(08:52):
they got beat by Houston or whatever, and it's well,
I guess in that case they beat Houston. But you
look at the situation and you think, oh, this is
the truth of the team, but it's really not because
those games they were so injured. Now, I thought that
might have been the case this week, but they had
four key defensive players. The coach did come back on
Thursday's practice, but one concern. T Y Hilton did miss
(09:15):
thursday's practice. He is key to this team. So all
that being said, motivationally, especially, I'm gonna agree with you
with the coach, I'd say the wise guys in general
would be more on the home dog. Alright, I'm gonna
take Oakland minus two. I think the Raiders here a
little undervalued. R J. First of all, there their travel
schedule has been daunting and their schedule. Schedule has been
(09:38):
tough at at Indie, is not easy at Green Bay,
at Houston, and I gotta tell you they have one
or been in these games. I think the Raiders now
minus two, first time home in a while. I think
they're undervalued, and I think Detroit is frankly easier schedule,
(09:59):
a little over valued. So I flipped on this early
in the week. I like the Lions, but the more
I dig I'm kind of impressed when John Gruden what
he's overcome with a schedule and the travel. I'll take
the Raiders here. Okay, agreement on this one. This is sharp,
I think for for you, because I don't think it's obvious.
I gotta be honest. So recently I was listening to
(10:21):
your podcast and one of the things is it flips
over to like a year ago if you if you
fall asleep and you listen through. And I heard you
in July of eighteen. Just this week when I woke up,
and it was like, it's a dumpster fire. Gruden's gonna
be a dumpster fire. So I give you credit. What
do you think has changed? Well, I think you know
my thing with him was ten years out of the league,
(10:43):
too much noise, but the Raiders are a noisy franchise. Gruden,
I think has done a good job to relate to players.
I think he has made the game easier for Derek Carr.
And let's be honest, from his free agent acquisitions to
his draft picks on the offensive side, he knows that side.
Now all questions some of their draft picks on the
(11:04):
defensive side. But r J, they've got nice offensive personnel.
I gotta be honest. I think you're right on. And
I also think what we're seeing is the league is
dropping off with the quality of coaching. This is something
Michael Lombardi has talked about where Belichick he's in his uh,
you know, mid six season. Beyond that's think about Tom
(11:25):
Land You at that point, think about Chuck Nol Jimmy
Johnson was retired. What which coach is excelled at this age?
And he's getting better If you look at the against
the spread record, which is the way to major it,
he's better the last five years, Belichick, So what does
that mean to this game? A guy like Gruden, whatever
he was ten years ago, he might even be better
(11:48):
now relative to the rest of the league. All Right,
Raiders strength of schedule. You said it third best in
the NFL. A lot of tough ones. Casey, Indie. Uh,
they had to play Chicago at London, and at that
time Chicago we liked. Oh for sure. Chicago was favored
by six points in that game. Think about after Denver, Casey,
Minnesota in the Chicago, Green Bay Houston. What's the easy
(12:10):
game there, Troy, Yeah, exactly, that's a great one. Last thing,
Detroit is banged up. Slay may or may not play
and since they lost running back Johnson last week, for example,
carries fifty nine yards, they cannot run the ball. And
Stafford has the flu and they said he's horse. He
can hardly talk a row team without a quarterback that
(12:31):
can show is a problem. You'll be hearing about that
more coming up this weekend. I think agreement raiders. If
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One of my favorite bets, maybe of the year. I'll
take Cleveland minus three at Denver. The Browns defense is healthy.
Their defensive line gave Brady Troubles and Russell Wilson and
Jared Goff okay against a rookie quarterback in Denver and
(14:23):
kind of an anequated offensive coach in Vic Fangio and
a bad offensive line with a tremendously uh week left tackle.
I think this game gets ugly. I think the defensive
front for Cleveland, very early in this game, establishes utter dominance.
This is an easy minus three delay. I love the Browns.
(14:44):
What are the wise guys think you had me to?
You said easy and okay, But I will say this,
this is a game that I didn't see it until
I started digging into it for you, Meaning I looked
at and go, oh, I don't want to bet the
Browns and I don't in about Denver, and in my
mind that kind of moved on the first time through.
I think you're onto something here actually, and we're probably
(15:06):
gonna use this in the super contest. Here's my thinking
the road favorites. The biggest problem is complacency, oh or
you're gonna get a full motivation. One of the things
we've talked about over the years is how off of
By road favorites are great because off of Bye you've
got motivation. Well, Cleveland's got off of By, but you
know they're motivated here right number two Kitchens. He seems
(15:29):
to be a liability, but it's Fangio necessarily going to
be the guy to exploit that. I don't know, I
don't think so. Also, this Brown's defense early in the year,
you remember against the Rams, very unhealthy. They have gotten healthier.
So there's some of that that the prior scores might
be a little skewed because the defense, especially for the Browns,
were so injured. Strength is schedule hardest in the NFL,
(15:52):
hardest Cleveland last five weeks, Rams, Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle,
New England. Think about that first, I can finally I liked.
I'll be candid. I like the Coats. Last week when
Denver covered against him, I questioned the motivation of Denver.
They were motivated. But now a backup quarterback six round pick,
(16:15):
and he has the smallest hands in the NFL. I
expect at least one fumble from Brandon Allen agreement Browns.
I'm taking a lot of favorites this week. I'm gonna
take green Bay now the numbers minus three and a half,
which which leads me to believe a lot of the
gum shoe uh toilet paper on the shoe guys will
love it. But it comes down to something. I watched
a lot of Chargers football. Um, their offensive lines bad,
(16:38):
their quarterbacks on athletic, they just can't pick up yards. Here.
They are a team that can't really move the ball consistently,
and it starts with their offensive line. I think Green
Bay is gonna be It's essentially I mean Aaron Rodgers
has a house, lives in Los Angeles, actually most of
the year. Uh, they'll have nine eight percent crowd. I
think again, this could get ugly. I'll lay the three
(16:59):
and a half and I know that number. A lot
of those guys, the old old school wise guys will
love it. But this is an easy lay for me here.
I'll take the Packers minus to me and a half. Yeah,
the old school guys are gonna say home dog, Home Dog.
But here's the thing, this might be the least valuable
home field game of the season. Yeah, I think it's
right there because Green Bay travels well Chargers historically now
(17:23):
since they've been in l A and not a great
home field. Now they're not winning, so it's even less enthusiasm,
less than zero as some would say, so to me,
it even goes beyond that. My concern is green Bay
on the road. As you talked about a few weeks ago,
Aaron Rodgers and his career is right around five hundred.
The Cowboy win brought him to five. That's amazing that
(17:44):
it's so poor for an all time quarterback. Also, though,
I think Green Bay feels this momentum and when a
team feels excited because they're doing so well, they tend
to keep doing it because the road favorite spot is
where they might let up just a little bit. And
this Chargers team, you think, oh, they gotta win finally.
Last week against the Bears, they were outgained by a
(18:06):
hundred fifty yards. The Bears had not gained on offense
over three hundred yards the entire season, and they did
and when well passed it against the Chargers and they
just fired their o C. When's it Wizzen Hunt gone?
Now do you really think that coaching staff can really
you know, when Belichick let someone go or someone has
to leave, he might slide in and take over. You
(18:29):
don't want that with the Charger's head coach. So to me,
that's a type of disruption that's significant. I hate being
on with the average fan. The average fans gonna go
green Bay's easy. I think they're right here. Agreement in
Green Bay. Uh, finally we have a bonus pick. But finally,
so I've gotten a lot of agreement with you this
week so far. In fact, let's see in the agreement.
(18:51):
Oh good lord, this may be four and one or
five and all agreement. Um. I think we're going crazy
on Baltimore. I like them. I think their schedule gets
lot harder. Um, New England only has to swallow three
New England's defense eats a live young quarterbacks. Well, why
would Lamar be different? Because he can run. He's still
going to have to make throws to win this football game.
(19:14):
And this is the best secondary of my adult life.
It's great and deep and sward. Their linebackers I expect
Baltimore to be frenzied at home and make it competitive.
But boy, you're, you're, you're, you're just giving me here
a defense that Lamar Jackson is going to be My
belief confused a lot, I'll lay, I'll swallow the three here,
(19:37):
I'll take New England minus three? What are the wise
guys think? Now? This would be another example of agreement
for me. Many wise guys physic my guy on the
Straight Out of Vegas show on pregame. Also, he actually
has the best bat on Baltimore. But let's physics, one
of those dudes that knows he's making a mistake, but
(19:57):
he still makes it because he because there's some kind
of principle above that he cares. And his principle above
here is okay. Baltimore off a bye. Now, let's give
hardball credit. Eleven and two straight up, nine and four
against the spread. After a bye, he prepares well with
extra time. Lamar is still a young quarterback. Disadvantage against Belichick,
(20:20):
but an advantage I have to buy and a few
gadget plays perhaps for hardball. Now, what does Belichick do?
He takes away what you do best. He makes you
play left handed. That's the phrase he uses, well, what's
that gonna be for Lamar? Lamar running comes naturally passing.
He's doing better, not his first instinct. So I expect
(20:40):
Belichick the force and me and Jennie was on fs
UH one talking about this. He will force Lamar to
throw my prop bet I love love love over passing
yards for Lamar Jackson. We hasn't come out yet. We
think it's gonna be around two oh five. If it's
in that range, I love the over. The question is
can Lamar succeed? I don't really think so. I agree
(21:05):
with the Pats here. One last thing is this kind
of pheasic going against logic in my opinion, But that's
why we have fun on the show. Since two thousand one,
the Patriots are six against the spread. No other teams
above fifty five. Betting against them means that the the internal,
the specific factors of this game would have to have
(21:25):
you have like thirteen percentage points. You gotta go all
the way to Belichick only winning from sixty to even
break even if you're betting the other way because of
the big So to me, if history tells you over
twenty years almost he wins sixty percent at the time.
Why not just say Patriots or pass every game from
here on? Yeah, no, I mean it's it's I All
(21:50):
I know is this New England may have some identity
issues on offense. I think they solve some of them
with Mohammed sanu who like wro because the middle of
the field receiver. So I think between Edelman, Jacoby Myers
and Sanu um they found an identity in their passing game,
which is middle of the field. And I still don't
(22:12):
think Baltimore's defense is great r J. I think Marcus
Peters helps, but it's a pretty average defense. Would not
a very sustainable or consistent pass rush. Brady is gonna
have time to throw. Well, listen, Peters McVeigh is the
boy genius, right and I know you are a Shanahan guy,
but let's just call both of them top ten coaches,
(22:32):
top eight coaches. They just let this guy go for
what a fifth round pick? How how good can he?
I mean, how much can he add to the team.
And the only good Ravens performance on d was against Seattle.
It was one game. And let me say the last
thing to wrap things up to me, if five years
ago you would say there's a guy on the radio
and he's gonna pick five games a week, and he's
(22:53):
gonna hit fifty even fifty, I know you've been above that.
I would bet literally my biggest better the year on
the no. So I think what people got to realize
is the level of difficulty of picking five games is
so much harder than picking two or three, because let's
be honest, you usually have the three you really like,
(23:14):
four and five stop. So the fact that you're going
back and forth during the week is just a sign
of honesty. Anyone that acts like these are five clear
picks every week, they're just lying. Do you design, engineer, build,
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I discover the forest dot Org, brought to you by
the United States Forest Service and the AD Council. Finally,
I give a bonus pick on Saturday. I probably you know.
I've always had this fascination with Tennessee. I do think
they're well coached. They're getting for it. Carolina. It's a number.
I think it's a close game, Carolina. I do think
humiliated play as well. I'm kind of going against what
(24:39):
I usually think, which is good team gets humiliated Carolina.
They bounced back and play well. Um, I take Tennessee
plus four, but I wouldn't put it in my blazing five.
I didn't feel strongly about it. What would the wise
guys say? I personally, and I think most wise guys
would say Carolina here, though some just are dog dog
dog all the time pretty much. Listen, Tennessee was out
(25:00):
by a hundred forty three yards against Tampa, so it
goes up as a win. But Tampa played better. But
they are better with Tannehill. Yeah, I agree, but they
had Tannehill last week and they were out game by
hundred forty three yards. And then they had Tannehill against
the Chargers and it took what three reversals at the
goal line? If they were owing two in the last
two Tennessee instead of too and oh, how different would
(25:21):
this line be? And you mentioned it, Brad Powers, one
of the guys are straight out of Vegas had this staff.
Teams that lose by thirty five or more. So that's
that embarrassment factor, all right, And Carolina lost by thirty
eight against San Francisco are fifty six percenter next game.
Now that is eighty six winners, sixty seven losers. So
we're talking about over a hundred and seventy games. It's
(25:43):
fifty six percent. To me. The only exception to that
is when you have something like the Jets, where you
start to wonder is their disfunction or they concerned. I
was on New York radio about the Jets and he said,
if they lose this game against a winless Miami, they
might fire Gates right in the middle of the Sea eason.
So the pressures on. I don't think Carolina feels that pressure. Finally,
(26:04):
Cam Reports came out today. He's slower to recover than
they thought with his foot. I think it calms the team.
They're happy right now. I actually like Carolina a good bit.
Pregame dot COM's r J Bell Straight out of Vegas
on Fox Sports Radio six to seven, and uh he
also at r J and Vegas. By the way, quickly
(26:25):
love No, you're not a college guy. Usc upsets Oregon calling.
Now I'll give you a college pig. It would take
thirty seconds. I love washing. Yet. By the way, do
you know Chris Peterson's eighteen and no off buys and
nine and no off losses? The losses I hadn't had.
I knew the bye, isn't it sad? That goes back
to Boise State? So that goes back to that's one
(26:47):
of my picks of the week. By the way, Uh,
it's crazy Peterson back to Boise you give him an
extra week, which, by the way, this is where Saban
is great and belly check and any read Chris Peterson
hasn't lost a game and like seven years off a ball. Well,
I tell you you were telling me. Occasionally when you're
doing your errands, you listen to Straight out of Vegas
that Brad Powers on the college here on this pot excellent, excellent, excellent,
(27:10):
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the Forest dot org brought to you by the United
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(00:49):
what does the chicken say? Uh? Diraffe? Really? Draft? Draft?
You're not gonna get it all right, Just make sure
you know the big stuff, like making sure your kids
are buckled correctly in the right seat for their agent's eyes.
Get it right. Visits an h s A dot gov
(01:10):
The Right Seat brought to you by the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration in the AD Council. All right, everybody,
It's Saturday. R J. Bell pregame dot Com. But first,
my blazing five picks. I don't want to go into detail,
but I've struggled recently. Here you go, let's blaze it off,
(01:32):
fired up, It's Collins blazing five cold sits Steelers. I'm
gonna take the Colts minus one and a half here.
First of all, I think they're playing for a division Houston,
and the Colts playing for that division Jacksonville, Tennessee not
far behind, so there's a real sense of urgency for
the Colts. James Conner. They're running back not practicing for
(01:53):
the Steelers, so now they won't be able to run
the ball, and they have an incredibly limited passing offense.
Steelers twenty eight in the league in offense. By the way,
the Colts used to be an Andrew Luck story. Now
they're a defensive story. Their defense in October fifth and
points allowed eighth and sacks tied for fifth and third
down percentage. I think they're very well coached. They're on
(02:15):
a three game winning streak, and their defense is playing
excellent football. I think the Colts go on the road
and they beat the Steelers to three Detroit and Oakland.
This this is a game that is interesting Oakland has
not played at home for a long time. Right their schedule,
so Oakland and that fan base are gonna be crazy.
(02:40):
Detroit Matt stafford this report. He's sick, has a cold,
not going in full strength. Detroit's beat up physically. Meanwhile,
the Raiders think about this, think out tough. Their schedule
has been the Bears in London, at Houston, at Indian
at Green Bay. Most travel g araphically in the league,
(03:01):
and here they are pretty darn good football team. And
all I gotta gives up give up is less than
a field goal. The Detroit Lions are great in the
first quarter. They are dreadful everywhere else. In second quarter scoring,
third quarter scoring, in fourth quarter scoring. Derek Carr in
(03:23):
the last month has been on fire. He's in a
group with John Gruden, completing of his throws. The Raiders
win by a touchdown. Good to have him back in
the Bay Area. Thirt Cleveland and Denver one of my
bets of the year. I'll take Cleveland to blow out
the Broncos take the Browns minus three and a half.
(03:45):
Denver has nothing to play for. They're starting a quarterback
Brandon Allen who's never taken an NFL snap. It's one
of the worst offensive lines and maybe the worst left
tackle in the NFL. And Cleveland's defense is as healthy
as it's been all year. The Broncos have allowed twenty
seven sacks, bottom six in the league. The Browns top
(04:06):
six in sacks. This is a pop gun offense. Now
with a backup quarterback, Nick Chubb will take the pressure
off Baker. Cleveland goes into town runs the football dominates.
I think Denver is gonna struggle to get first downs
thirty three to ten Browns and an utter blowout, and
(04:28):
you'll see it early. Green Bay in Los Angeles, it's
actually a home game for the Packers, it is. There
are suggesting it will be the most lobsided road crowd
in the chargers brief history in their stadium, eighty percent
Packer fans. I'll take Green Bay minus three and a half. Listen,
(04:49):
this is one of these picks years ago. If I
got a home team Philip Rivers and Oprah field Goal,
you always take the Chargers. Their offensive line is weak,
they can't run the ball for up. Rivers is now
an older, unathletic quarterback. I mean, they just struggle to
get consistent yards green Bay. Best defense in years, best
running game in years, now gets Davante Adams back. Aaron
(05:13):
Rodgers last two weeks without him, has been absolutely on fire.
Leads the league in ten interception ratio and passer rating.
Philip rivers last week through for two hundred yards and
and and by the way, that's getting the ball in
good field position because Trabinsky can't move the chains. I
like the Packers to win this game. I do think
(05:35):
the Chargers will make a game of it, but I'm
gonna swallow the three and a half and take Aaron
Rodgers and the Vante Adams back. New England and Baltimore.
I'm gonna take the Patriots. Don't overthink the room on this.
Baltimore's big win is Seattle. I'm not sure how good
Seattle is. I gotta be honest. They're They're like a
(05:56):
football away from not not battling for fourth in their
division Nippy they beat Cincinnati. Um. Baltimore is good team,
They're not a special team. Lamar Jackson is fun and
can run like crazy, but New England controls the football.
Mohammed Sanu Edelman, Jacobe Myers middle of the field, and
(06:19):
New England's defense is first in everything. Don't outthink the
room here. Patriots have twenty one straight games against first
or second year quarterbacks. They've won. New England's going to
control the ball, middle of the field, take a lead.
Not it's in Baltimore. It's gonna be crazy. But just
don't out think the room here, young quarterback against the
(06:41):
great defense. Now with Mohammed Sanu, there's more of an
identity with New England's offense here. This is an easy
three to swallow. I like Lamar. This is a tough
spot here. New England thirty Baltimore three. Swallow the points.
Also Baltimore's defense here that this is not Baltimore revolt.
(07:02):
Their offense is far more productive than their defense. Brady
is gonna have time to throw in this game. He
didn't have time to throw against Cleveland last week. He'll
have time this week to throw. And I like the
Patriots here to win hand to cover. All right. R
J hosts Straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio
six to seven. Listen to it all the time, by
the way, get all sorts of good information. All right,
(07:24):
let's start with this Indianapolis minus one at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh
now I don't know what kind of running game they're
gonna have because James Conner's all banged up, and I
think it's a limited passing game to begin with. And frankly,
I like Indianapolis's defense. I like their coach. I like
their offensive line. You know, minus one feels like a
(07:46):
pick um. I just think the Colts win a close game.
What are the wise guys thing? Okay, I'm giving you agreement,
r J's agreement, though most wise guys, most Sharps would
disagree here. Okay. As a Steelers fan, I follow this
team very close. They I question their motivation in this spot.
You might say, wait a minute, they're at home. They're
(08:06):
at home, underdog. Listen, this team's exceeded expectations. They've had
some wins you wouldn't necessarily expect. And when they get
fat and happy, you saw it on Monday night. They
barely can't well they you know, got the thirteen, but
they were in a bad spot in that game. And
this feels like a situation where it's home and home,
the team can be a little lax. I wonder about motivation, though,
(08:28):
I think anyone who doesn't follow this team would say, boy,
that doesn't sound right. We'll watch. I'll be interested to
see it. Now, let's talk about the Coats injuries early
in the year. They've had some decimated games, games where
you almost got to throw them out because he hadn't
missed so many players. What ends up happening, calling is
those teams become underrated because you're looking at the score saying, oh,
(08:52):
they got beat by Houston or whatever, and it's well,
I guess in that case they beat Houston. But you
look at the situation and you think, oh, this is
the truth of the team, but it's really not because
those games they were so injured. Now, I thought that
might have been the case this week, but they had
four key defensive players. The coach did come back on
Thursday's practice, but one concern. T Y Hilton did miss
(09:15):
thursday's practice. He is key to this team. So all
that being said, motivationally, especially, I'm gonna agree with you
with the coach, I'd say the wise guys in general
would be more on the home dog. Alright, I'm gonna
take Oakland minus two. I think the Raiders here a
little undervalued. R J. First of all, there their travel
schedule has been daunting and their schedule. Schedule has been
(09:38):
tough at at Indie, is not easy at Green Bay,
at Houston, and I gotta tell you they have one
or been in these games. I think the Raiders now
minus two, first time home in a while. I think
they're undervalued, and I think Detroit is frankly easier schedule,
(09:59):
a little over valued. So I flipped on this early
in the week. I like the Lions, but the more
I dig I'm kind of impressed when John Gruden what
he's overcome with a schedule and the travel. I'll take
the Raiders here. Okay, agreement on this one. This is sharp,
I think for for you, because I don't think it's obvious.
I gotta be honest. So recently I was listening to
(10:21):
your podcast and one of the things is it flips
over to like a year ago if you if you
fall asleep and you listen through. And I heard you
in July of eighteen. Just this week when I woke up,
and it was like, it's a dumpster fire. Gruden's gonna
be a dumpster fire. So I give you credit. What
do you think has changed? Well, I think you know
my thing with him was ten years out of the league,
(10:43):
too much noise, but the Raiders are a noisy franchise. Gruden,
I think has done a good job to relate to players.
I think he has made the game easier for Derek Carr.
And let's be honest, from his free agent acquisitions to
his draft picks on the offensive side, he knows that side.
Now all questions some of their draft picks on the
(11:04):
defensive side. But r J, they've got nice offensive personnel.
I gotta be honest. I think you're right on. And
I also think what we're seeing is the league is
dropping off with the quality of coaching. This is something
Michael Lombardi has talked about where Belichick he's in his uh,
you know, mid six season. Beyond that's think about Tom
(11:25):
Land You at that point, think about Chuck Nol Jimmy
Johnson was retired. What which coach is excelled at this age?
And he's getting better If you look at the against
the spread record, which is the way to major it,
he's better the last five years, Belichick, So what does
that mean to this game? A guy like Gruden, whatever
he was ten years ago, he might even be better
(11:48):
now relative to the rest of the league. All Right,
Raiders strength of schedule. You said it third best in
the NFL. A lot of tough ones. Casey, Indie. Uh,
they had to play Chicago at London, and at that
time Chicago we liked. Oh for sure. Chicago was favored
by six points in that game. Think about after Denver, Casey,
Minnesota in the Chicago, Green Bay Houston. What's the easy
(12:10):
game there, Troy, Yeah, exactly, that's a great one. Last thing,
Detroit is banged up. Slay may or may not play
and since they lost running back Johnson last week, for example,
carries fifty nine yards, they cannot run the ball. And
Stafford has the flu and they said he's horse. He
can hardly talk a row team without a quarterback that
(12:31):
can show is a problem. You'll be hearing about that
more coming up this weekend. I think agreement raiders. If
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One of my favorite bets, maybe of the year. I'll
take Cleveland minus three at Denver. The Browns defense is healthy.
Their defensive line gave Brady Troubles and Russell Wilson and
Jared Goff okay against a rookie quarterback in Denver and
(14:23):
kind of an anequated offensive coach in Vic Fangio and
a bad offensive line with a tremendously uh week left tackle.
I think this game gets ugly. I think the defensive
front for Cleveland, very early in this game, establishes utter dominance.
This is an easy minus three delay. I love the Browns.
(14:44):
What are the wise guys think you had me to?
You said easy and okay, But I will say this,
this is a game that I didn't see it until
I started digging into it for you, Meaning I looked
at and go, oh, I don't want to bet the
Browns and I don't in about Denver, and in my
mind that kind of moved on the first time through.
I think you're onto something here actually, and we're probably
(15:06):
gonna use this in the super contest. Here's my thinking
the road favorites. The biggest problem is complacency, oh or
you're gonna get a full motivation. One of the things
we've talked about over the years is how off of
By road favorites are great because off of Bye you've
got motivation. Well, Cleveland's got off of By, but you
know they're motivated here right number two Kitchens. He seems
(15:29):
to be a liability, but it's Fangio necessarily going to
be the guy to exploit that. I don't know, I
don't think so. Also, this Brown's defense early in the year,
you remember against the Rams, very unhealthy. They have gotten healthier.
So there's some of that that the prior scores might
be a little skewed because the defense, especially for the Browns,
were so injured. Strength is schedule hardest in the NFL,
(15:52):
hardest Cleveland last five weeks, Rams, Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle,
New England. Think about that first, I can finally I liked.
I'll be candid. I like the Coats. Last week when
Denver covered against him, I questioned the motivation of Denver.
They were motivated. But now a backup quarterback six round pick,
(16:15):
and he has the smallest hands in the NFL. I
expect at least one fumble from Brandon Allen agreement Browns.
I'm taking a lot of favorites this week. I'm gonna
take green Bay now the numbers minus three and a half,
which which leads me to believe a lot of the
gum shoe uh toilet paper on the shoe guys will
love it. But it comes down to something. I watched
a lot of Chargers football. Um, their offensive lines bad,
(16:38):
their quarterbacks on athletic, they just can't pick up yards. Here.
They are a team that can't really move the ball consistently,
and it starts with their offensive line. I think Green
Bay is gonna be It's essentially I mean Aaron Rodgers
has a house, lives in Los Angeles, actually most of
the year. Uh, they'll have nine eight percent crowd. I
think again, this could get ugly. I'll lay the three
(16:59):
and a half and I know that number. A lot
of those guys, the old old school wise guys will
love it. But this is an easy lay for me here.
I'll take the Packers minus to me and a half. Yeah,
the old school guys are gonna say home dog, Home Dog.
But here's the thing, this might be the least valuable
home field game of the season. Yeah, I think it's
right there because Green Bay travels well Chargers historically now
(17:23):
since they've been in l A and not a great
home field. Now they're not winning, so it's even less enthusiasm,
less than zero as some would say, so to me,
it even goes beyond that. My concern is green Bay
on the road. As you talked about a few weeks ago,
Aaron Rodgers and his career is right around five hundred.
The Cowboy win brought him to five. That's amazing that
(17:44):
it's so poor for an all time quarterback. Also, though,
I think Green Bay feels this momentum and when a
team feels excited because they're doing so well, they tend
to keep doing it because the road favorite spot is
where they might let up just a little bit. And
this Chargers team, you think, oh, they gotta win finally.
Last week against the Bears, they were outgained by a
(18:06):
hundred fifty yards. The Bears had not gained on offense
over three hundred yards the entire season, and they did
and when well passed it against the Chargers and they
just fired their o C. When's it Wizzen Hunt gone?
Now do you really think that coaching staff can really
you know, when Belichick let someone go or someone has
to leave, he might slide in and take over. You
(18:29):
don't want that with the Charger's head coach. So to me,
that's a type of disruption that's significant. I hate being
on with the average fan. The average fans gonna go
green Bay's easy. I think they're right here. Agreement in
Green Bay. Uh, finally we have a bonus pick. But finally,
so I've gotten a lot of agreement with you this
week so far. In fact, let's see in the agreement.
(18:51):
Oh good lord, this may be four and one or
five and all agreement. Um. I think we're going crazy
on Baltimore. I like them. I think their schedule gets
lot harder. Um, New England only has to swallow three
New England's defense eats a live young quarterbacks. Well, why
would Lamar be different? Because he can run. He's still
going to have to make throws to win this football game.
(19:14):
And this is the best secondary of my adult life.
It's great and deep and sward. Their linebackers I expect
Baltimore to be frenzied at home and make it competitive.
But boy, you're, you're, you're, you're just giving me here
a defense that Lamar Jackson is going to be My
belief confused a lot, I'll lay, I'll swallow the three here,
(19:37):
I'll take New England minus three? What are the wise
guys think? Now? This would be another example of agreement
for me. Many wise guys physic my guy on the
Straight Out of Vegas show on pregame. Also, he actually
has the best bat on Baltimore. But let's physics, one
of those dudes that knows he's making a mistake, but
(19:57):
he still makes it because he because there's some kind
of principle above that he cares. And his principle above
here is okay. Baltimore off a bye. Now, let's give
hardball credit. Eleven and two straight up, nine and four
against the spread. After a bye, he prepares well with
extra time. Lamar is still a young quarterback. Disadvantage against Belichick,
(20:20):
but an advantage I have to buy and a few
gadget plays perhaps for hardball. Now, what does Belichick do?
He takes away what you do best. He makes you
play left handed. That's the phrase he uses, well, what's
that gonna be for Lamar? Lamar running comes naturally passing.
He's doing better, not his first instinct. So I expect
(20:40):
Belichick the force and me and Jennie was on fs
UH one talking about this. He will force Lamar to
throw my prop bet I love love love over passing
yards for Lamar Jackson. We hasn't come out yet. We
think it's gonna be around two oh five. If it's
in that range, I love the over. The question is
can Lamar succeed? I don't really think so. I agree
(21:05):
with the Pats here. One last thing is this kind
of pheasic going against logic in my opinion, But that's
why we have fun on the show. Since two thousand one,
the Patriots are six against the spread. No other teams
above fifty five. Betting against them means that the the internal,
the specific factors of this game would have to have
(21:25):
you have like thirteen percentage points. You gotta go all
the way to Belichick only winning from sixty to even
break even if you're betting the other way because of
the big So to me, if history tells you over
twenty years almost he wins sixty percent at the time.
Why not just say Patriots or pass every game from
here on? Yeah, no, I mean it's it's I All
(21:50):
I know is this New England may have some identity
issues on offense. I think they solve some of them
with Mohammed sanu who like wro because the middle of
the field receiver. So I think between Edelman, Jacoby Myers
and Sanu um they found an identity in their passing game,
which is middle of the field. And I still don't
(22:12):
think Baltimore's defense is great r J. I think Marcus
Peters helps, but it's a pretty average defense. Would not
a very sustainable or consistent pass rush. Brady is gonna
have time to throw. Well, listen, Peters McVeigh is the
boy genius, right and I know you are a Shanahan guy,
but let's just call both of them top ten coaches,
(22:32):
top eight coaches. They just let this guy go for
what a fifth round pick? How how good can he?
I mean, how much can he add to the team.
And the only good Ravens performance on d was against Seattle.
It was one game. And let me say the last
thing to wrap things up to me, if five years
ago you would say there's a guy on the radio
and he's gonna pick five games a week, and he's
(22:53):
gonna hit fifty even fifty, I know you've been above that.
I would bet literally my biggest better the year on
the no. So I think what people got to realize
is the level of difficulty of picking five games is
so much harder than picking two or three, because let's
be honest, you usually have the three you really like,
(23:14):
four and five stop. So the fact that you're going
back and forth during the week is just a sign
of honesty. Anyone that acts like these are five clear
picks every week, they're just lying. Do you design, engineer, build,
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(23:57):
sure no, what else grows in the forest, our imagination,
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Because when we disconnect from this and connect with this.
We reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than
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(24:18):
I discover the forest dot Org, brought to you by
the United States Forest Service and the AD Council. Finally,
I give a bonus pick on Saturday. I probably you know.
I've always had this fascination with Tennessee. I do think
they're well coached. They're getting for it. Carolina. It's a number.
I think it's a close game, Carolina. I do think
humiliated play as well. I'm kind of going against what
(24:39):
I usually think, which is good team gets humiliated Carolina.
They bounced back and play well. Um, I take Tennessee
plus four, but I wouldn't put it in my blazing five.
I didn't feel strongly about it. What would the wise
guys say? I personally, and I think most wise guys
would say Carolina here, though some just are dog dog
dog all the time pretty much. Listen, Tennessee was out
(25:00):
by a hundred forty three yards against Tampa, so it
goes up as a win. But Tampa played better. But
they are better with Tannehill. Yeah, I agree, but they
had Tannehill last week and they were out game by
hundred forty three yards. And then they had Tannehill against
the Chargers and it took what three reversals at the
goal line? If they were owing two in the last
two Tennessee instead of too and oh, how different would
(25:21):
this line be? And you mentioned it, Brad Powers, one
of the guys are straight out of Vegas had this staff.
Teams that lose by thirty five or more. So that's
that embarrassment factor, all right, And Carolina lost by thirty
eight against San Francisco are fifty six percenter next game.
Now that is eighty six winners, sixty seven losers. So
we're talking about over a hundred and seventy games. It's
(25:43):
fifty six percent. To me. The only exception to that
is when you have something like the Jets, where you
start to wonder is their disfunction or they concerned. I
was on New York radio about the Jets and he said,
if they lose this game against a winless Miami, they
might fire Gates right in the middle of the Sea eason.
So the pressures on. I don't think Carolina feels that pressure. Finally,
(26:04):
Cam Reports came out today. He's slower to recover than
they thought with his foot. I think it calms the team.
They're happy right now. I actually like Carolina a good bit.
Pregame dot COM's r J Bell Straight out of Vegas
on Fox Sports Radio six to seven, and uh he
also at r J and Vegas. By the way, quickly
(26:25):
love No, you're not a college guy. Usc upsets Oregon calling.
Now I'll give you a college pig. It would take
thirty seconds. I love washing. Yet. By the way, do
you know Chris Peterson's eighteen and no off buys and
nine and no off losses? The losses I hadn't had.
I knew the bye, isn't it sad? That goes back
to Boise State? So that goes back to that's one
(26:47):
of my picks of the week. By the way, Uh,
it's crazy Peterson back to Boise you give him an
extra week, which, by the way, this is where Saban
is great and belly check and any read Chris Peterson
hasn't lost a game and like seven years off a ball. Well,
I tell you you were telling me. Occasionally when you're
doing your errands, you listen to Straight out of Vegas
that Brad Powers on the college here on this pot excellent, excellent, excellent,
(27:10):
good talking to you about thank you? Do you design, engineer, build,
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(27:32):
you learn from industry experts through life Webinars are over
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and you will discover the true magic of a forest.
Find a forest near you and start exploring it. Discover
(27:52):
the Forest dot org brought to you by the United
States Forest Service and the AD Council. What girls in
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and discover the Forest dot Org. Brought to you by
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