November 28, 2024 • 53 mins
Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 13 of the NFL slate!
Plus they discuss some other huge football topics including the crushing pressure facing Ohio State and Ryan Day, where Deion Sanders ends up when he leaves Colorado, and whether the NFL is losing parity!
5:00 - Packers vs Dolphins
7:00 - Steelers vs Bengals
8:30 - Cardinals vs Vikings
11:00 - 49ers vs Bills
12:45 - Titans vs Commanders
16:00 - Texans vs Jaguars
18:00 - Lions vs Bears
28:00 - Chargers vs Falcons
30:30 - Seahawks vs Jets
32:30 - Buccaneers vs Panthers
34:00 - USC vs Notre Dame
40:30 - Ohio State faces crushing pressure
50:00 - Where will Deion end up after Colorado?
55:00 - Is the NFL losing parity?
1:01:30 - What Colin is thankful for
Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
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All right? It is time for another edition, the Thanksgiving Edition.
(01:09):
It's a tasty one. Sharper Square Chad Millman, co host
of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I
have this is a weird week. I always try to
I'll bet individual games during Thanksgiving, but I think it's
a tough week short rest. Like I'll give you an example.
I like the Packers minus three against the Dolphins. I get.
(01:29):
I think a better roster at home short rest. I
think Miami and Tua's history in cold weather is I
was joking today on the Herd. I'm like, there's a
reason Norway's great in the Winter Olympics and not of
the Summer Olympics. There are truths about weather. Every NCAA
Beach Volleyball championship since it's been created has gone to
(01:52):
USC or UCLA. If you go look at the history
of dynasties in the NFL, starting with Lobardi, Green Bay, Pittsburgh,
New England, Kansas City Steelers, Dallas where by the way,
it snows during Christmas, and San Francisco, which Mark Twain
(02:12):
once said the coldest winter I ever spent was a
summer in San Francisco. There are no warm weather dynasties
because eventually warm teams have to go north, and it's
just the reality of somebody that grows up in the
Keys does not want to live in Baltimore the winter.
So I like the Packers. I think the weather thing
between a Hawaiian quarterback who went to the SEC and Miami,
(02:33):
I think it's real Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
So it's a little bit square. However, you and I
are aligned. The line was at three and a half.
It's come down. The wise guys have been betting on
the Dolphins. It kind of doesn't make much sense to
me to as you mentioned, as a dog in this
spot three and eleven.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
I think on the road against.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Winning teams, So he does not have a good history here.
And if you look at the three games he's been
back beat the Rams on the road, everyone was excited
about it. They're not a winning team. They were not
a winning team when he beat them. Then he just
beat up on the Patriots. The Patriots are statistically the
(03:24):
worst team in the NFL. So you're getting to a
looking really good, and I admit he looked great. And
they've changed their scheme quite a bit. They're not throwing
the ball downfield as much. They're throwing a lot more
sort of in cuts that allow the players like Tyreek
Hill to really get yards after the catch. But going
(03:44):
to Green Bay, it's going to be twenty five degrees.
It's going to be windy. Matt Lafleoor schematically one of
the best coaches in the NFL. We've seen what he
does when he doesn't have a quarterback. Just give the
ball to Josh Jacobs against the Miami's defense. I like
the opportunity for Matt Leflora, who I think is a
(04:05):
better coach than Mike McDaniels. He's sixty plus percent against
the spread as a favorite at home.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
I'm with you. I don't get the move. I like
the Packers. I'm not a buyer on Miami.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
So this line I didn't understand. There's a couple of
lines this week I didn't quite get. So the Steelers
are a much better football operation than Joe Burrow and
the Bengals. And I've talked about this before. The Bengals
moved off Joe Mixon and defensive players before they paid
T Higgins and Jamar Chase. They're just a cheap franchise.
(04:41):
Pittsburgh awful loss is going to be feisty. Pittsburgh is
a dog is great. Burrow's wonderful, but not when he's
sitting on the bench watching a run game, dominate time
of possession. I like the Steelers as a dog plus three,
it's a much better team, sharper square.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Yet of course it's the sharp play. It makes no
sense that the number is even close to three.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
I don't tell it.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
It's been bouncing around.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
It opened to two and a half, got bet up
to three, came back to two and a half. Because
the wise guys know Mike Tomlin as a dog sixty
two percent on the road, he is the best coach
as a dog this generation. Twenty years. He is sixty
(05:31):
two percent as a dog in the division on the road,
sixty four percent when the spread is between one and three.
I do believe that a lot of people are just
enamored with how Joe Burrow has been playing pret year.
He's putting up pinball numbers, right. But this is a
terrible defense. And while they've been off for two weeks,
(05:52):
the Steelers have been off for ten days, and it's
a raw rah Mike Tomlin spot. He makes these guys believe,
and they's still in a position where they can win
that division. So you're not going to want to lose
an in division game. I bet the Steelers on the
money line.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Another dog I like is Arizona plus three and a
half at the Vikings so off of by Arizona was
a mess and a lot of it. With Seattle got
a consistent pass rush, I don't think Minnesota's pass rush
will be that formidable. I also think Arizona, when they
can run the ball, is a really really effective team.
I think they'll have a better chance to run the
(06:29):
ball here. Arizona is inconsistent, but this is a team
that has for the last five weeks. I mean they
went to Miami in one and they went to Santa
Clara in one. I think their personnels better than people think.
They have elite players, Budda Baker's elite, Connor's elite. Mcgride
is a tremendous tight end, Kyler Murray's elite. They don't
(06:49):
have big names on the interior d line, but they
play well. They play above their weight. So I just
think I think this is a close game. Minnesota doesn't
really bury people. Go look at the Jacksonville game, go
look at the Chicago game. They're not Philadelphia, they don't
blow over you. They make mistakes, they're missing their great
left tackle. They're a good team, they're not special. They're
(07:12):
well coached with some nice playmakers. But you watch the
Minnesota game, that's a go either way football game, it
doesn't look like either team is significantly more talented and
one is in turmoil, and you're like, I don't know,
they kind of look the same. I'm taking the three
and a half with Arizona Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
Eh, it's kind of an ish, like there's no consensus.
It's not a lot of interest, to be honest, from
the wise guys. There's some games on the board that
the wise guys have planted a flag in the sand on.
This is not one of them. A lot of the
wise guys liked Arizona last week. They feel a little
burned by what happened in Seattle. You still don't know,
(07:53):
we said last week. They put all their cards on
the table, right, pun intended, and they come off to buy.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Kyler looks disinterested.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
So what are you going to be getting the second
week going against Minnesota, which still has a lot to lose,
And you're right, they gave it away against the Bears.
Like the Bears should not even have been close to
turning that game into an overtime game so that they
come out with a little more intensity this week. It's
just a hard one and handicap.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
I think. I think the line is kind of right
exactly where it.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Is, Okay, a favorite. I like Buffalo at home minus seven,
well rested and waiting for a nine ers team. Bosa
didn't practice, Trent Williams didn't practice. I'm not sure if
that locker room. I mean, if Bosa doesn't play, that's
a very average D line. Buffalo's rested, they're healthy. You know,
(08:45):
they're a team that they're playing for the number one
seed here. And by the way, Alan the backup for
San Francisco, that's not going to work. That's just not
good enough. And Brock Prudy, who never has a great arm,
is now dealing with a shoulder in shoot again, this
is not a guy with a whip to begin with.
This is the rare. I think the Niners are living
(09:06):
off reputation. I just don't think they're a very special
football team. Five and seven in their last twelve. I'm
going to lay the seven. I like Buffalo sharper square.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Sure, I mean the wise guys had been betting Buffalo.
It opened at six and a half, it's got up
to seven. I think the real question why it sort
of hasn't exploded, and we saw this last week with
the Packers, is Brock Purdy. What's his status going to be?
So no one's going to overinvest until they get a
real sense of what whether or not he's going to
be playing. I agree with you about Nick Bosa. If
(09:39):
you watch that game against the Seahawks, he was the
difference when he was playing, they were in control of
that game. Gino Smith was harassed, he was making bad
decisions and bad throws when he was no longer playing
in that game, Gino Smith goes on a drive in
the final two minutes that wins them the game, and
now all of a sudden it's propelling saddle into Seattle
(10:00):
and everyone thinking they're a super special team and they
could potentially win the NFC West. Nick Boson not being
there and Trent Williams are those are massive, massive missing pieces.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
I like the Titans plus five and a half at
the Commander's I think Cliff Kingsbury does this single guy
a lot of time in the summer, plays some golf,
and comes up with a new offense, and I think
it fools people, and then all of a sudden, about
mid October to late October, if you look at his
history in college or pro football, people catch up and
(10:38):
then you're left with a September offense in November. And
I just don't think the Commander's I mean Jesus, it's
like the Cowboys had the Commander's playbook. They would flush
Daniels out of the pocket and there were guys just
waiting for him. And I think Tennessee is really good upfront, defensively,
very disruptive. I think Will Levis still makes He's got
(11:01):
that Will Levis Carson Wentz reckless gene. But you know what,
I think he's played himself into another year starting and
I think you can sense it. I think he doesn't
feel as apprehensive.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
I just don't.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
I'm not giving up five and a half points for
anybody against the Commanders. I think they're just right now,
an average roster. They have laid out their cards, everybody's
seen them. I'm taking the five and a half. I
think Tennessee's a tough, physical team. Is Houston found out
Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
Yeah, you nail that it's totally sharp. The interesting thing
here is the line moved from six and a half
to six to five and a half early in the week,
and for what we're talking about here, early in the
week was really Monday, and that was a consensus professional move.
I bet it at five and a half. It moved
up a little bit to six six and a half again,
(11:52):
and now it's come back down. I couldn't agree with
you more. The cliff cliff, the Cliff Kingsbury cliff. Mid
season is real. Statistically, right, Texas Tech they would get
to the middle point of the year, they would lose. Cardinals,
they would get to the middle point of the year,
they would lose. If you want to pack that, it's
(12:14):
somewhat circumstantial, right, you can look at Texas Tech and
be like, Okay, they played Patsy's in the beginning of
the year, they get into the conference, the schedule gets
hush right, right, and the Cardinals a couple times, he
had Kyler Murray injured, didn't have the full scope of
his talent, and all of a sudden the team isn't
as good. But it's happening again. It's happening this time
because Jade Daniels is injured and has been playing injured,
(12:37):
and after that rocket start the first four weeks of
the year, he's barely completing seventy percent of his passes.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
After a start he was completing eighty percent.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
Right, you look at the flip side, and yes, Tennessee
they have a very good defense.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
They've been playing better.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
Last week they gave up eight sacks and Will Levis
had a pick six and they still beat Texans who
have a better quarterback in the Washington Commanders. And I
do think that this is going to be the worst
defense Will Levis has faced this season, and he has
an opportunity here to be pressured a little bit less
(13:14):
and get the ball, push the ball downfield, which is
what he's really good at, and that's when he's most comfortable.
So well as guys are with you, that's a sharp play.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
I don't know how many people will watch this. I
like the Texans minus four at the Jags. I don't
know what the Jags are playing for. I think that's
a kind of a ugly, toxic locker room where people
have bailed. I think the Texans off one of their
worst performances of the year. It means a lot. They're
playing for more. They're pissed off. They have an issue
(13:44):
with protection guard center guard, but they've got just simply
better players playing for more, and frankly, a better quarterback.
If Trevor Lawrence plays, he's not close to one hundred percent.
I think they have a coaching advantage, a coordinating advantage.
This feels like my second favorite bet of the week.
I'm going to take the Texans minus four at the
Jag Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (14:04):
Well, I wish you hadn't said it was your second
favorite favorite. The wise guys are all over the Jags
in this game. They love the Jags. They've moved from
five to four and a half to four.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
Yeah, it's it's an interesting one for me personally. I
agree with you it's a pass. I think the wise
guys are looking at CJ. Stroud and thinking it's not
that he's not progressing, it's that he's the protection's terriblake. Well,
he's playing like a normal quarterback right and like his
(14:36):
interception percentage was so low last year that it doubles
this year, and all of a sudden it's at league
average and everyone thinks, oh my god, there's something wrong.
With him, they're playing different defenses. Again, it's him, so
his coverage is different, and he hasn't had his best players,
so and and and the offensive line protection is terrible,
truly terrible.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
You can tell letting everything a second early everything.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Yeah, and he's also a gunslinger, right like he likes
to let it go. He's not going to stop being aggressive.
As he said last week, you got to shoot your shot.
So I think that the wise guys are looking at
this and saying division game on the road, JAG's last
chance to make a stand if Trevor Lawrence is playing,
the sort of betting on the opportunity that he might
be playing. And they thought the number was a little
(15:20):
bit too high, so they're taking a piece of that
while they can.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Lions either minus nine or nine and a half at
home against Chicago. So Detroit played by their standards poorly
last week on the road and beat a pretty good
roster soundly. Chicago's had back to back games, heartbreaking games
where they really should win the game and they don't.
And I just wonder about their metal. I just wonder
(15:46):
about how deep the reservoir of disappointment is with Chicago.
I also think when you play Detroit, you always play
from behind. Now, maybe that doesn't Affectkayleb Williams because he
was very good behind against Minus. He's such a playmaker.
But I could see this game becoming thirty eight thirteen
really really fast. I'm going to swallow the points Detroit
(16:10):
minus nine, nine and a half sharper square.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Is this your favorite favorite?
Speaker 2 (16:15):
No? I like Buffalo as my favorite favorite.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
Okay, so the Wise guys have been all over the Bears.
It went from ten and a half to ten to
nine and a half. As of Wednesday afternoon it was
at nine. I am shocked. I feel like this is
a massive overreaction to the Bears, to two games of
(16:40):
Caleb Williams playing well, still not winning, but playing well.
And by the way, in order to make that game
against Minnesota look halfway decent in the final score, he
needed three miracle passes. And I know you've been spending
a lot of time on Caleb Williams this week and
(17:00):
this season on the show. One of your rants from
earlier this week is like lighting up my Chicago friends
text chain because you've nailed every single component of this,
especially about Matt Eberfluse. This is a terrible coach. He's
a fine defensive coordinator. This is a coaching mismatch in
(17:23):
a short week with a Lions team that got to
really pull back on the throttle against the Colts and
the Bears team that had to go into overtime to
lose and now has to play the earlier game on Thursday.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Like, how does this coaching staff turn it around?
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Right? That's number one. Number two, I believe being physical travels.
It is the one thing that is consistent in football.
Quarterbacks are going to have bad games, Receivers are going
to drop passes. But when you can block the line
of scrimmage and dominate your opponent, that is the same
(18:03):
every single week. And we saw it last week with
the Lions. I loved the Colts last week. The Lions
go out and just beat up a very physical team
in the Colts. So now we've got a team in
the Lions second overall in success rate, meaning they get
a higher percentage of yardage on each down towards a
(18:24):
first down than any other team except for one second
in rush success rate. Second in rush expected points per rush,
meaning do they get the number of points does the
rush lead to a point on the scoreboard, it's the
second best in the league EPA expected points overall third.
(18:45):
The Bears twenty sixth in the NFL in rushing. Their
rush defense is terrible. People want to talk about how
good their pass rush is and could they do something
to Jared Goff. I don't care because if it's third
and eight for the Lions, they know they're going to
go four and fourth down, going to give Jamir Gibs
the ball, and he's going to gain five yards, and
then they're going to go four on four and three. Like,
(19:05):
I don't see what this feels like, just a massive mismatch.
I think we're seeing something historical with the lines. I
think we're seeing something we see generationally, and I think
wise guys here are playing a two game sample size
and betting against a number that I'm not buying.
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Speaker 2 (21:02):
I always have a game every week. I want your expertise.
So I think the Chargers are a better team than
the Falcons. But I also think the Falcons are rested,
they're at home, and I think they're more explosive offensively.
I feel like with the Chargers, and I've seen this
now a couple times this year, because they don't have playmakers.
Quentin Johnson officially can't catch that. They score basically on
(21:26):
big drives nine play drives, ten play drives, eleven play drives. Well,
you're asking for perfect football. You know Philadelphia can have penalties.
Saquon Barkley rips off a fifty seven yarder AJ Brown
over the top. You need freebies. You can't live on
twelve play drives. And that's what the Chargers have to do.
And the middle of their interior of their own line
(21:47):
isn't good enough so they get holding calls. They don't
have receivers that separate. I'm guessing the Sharps like Atlanta
plus one at home.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
Back and forth.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
The line actually moved up from one and a half
to to two and a half. And I think that
the sentiment is that people were actually impressed with the
Chargers and that the difference in that game against the
Ravens was JK. Dobbins leaving the game and it completely
changed the tenor. And you're right about the offensive line,
(22:24):
especially the interior the offensive line. That's where the Ravens
were getting pressure. The Falcons can't get pressure. They're not
the Ravens. They really can't get any pressure at all.
And so that's not expected to be a factor for
the Chargers.
Speaker 1 (22:38):
I will tell you it's sort of and not.
Speaker 3 (22:40):
The line has come back down, which tells you that
the wise guys felt the line had gotten too high,
and there's been some buyback. And by the way, this
is a very common thing. There are a lot of
professional betters who might like the Falcons and want the
line to be a little bit different. So early in
the week, what do they do. They bet on the Chargers,
say five grand ten grand whatever, move the line up,
(23:03):
and then when it gets to a certain point they
bet fifty grand sixty grand on the Falcons. Right, So
they're paying a little bit of a premium to get
the line to move so they can get better price
on the team they really want.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
That could have happened this week. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
I haven't heard that, but it's possible. So there's no
it's a long way of saying there's no real consensus
here on what this game should be.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
Okay, Chad, And there's always one that I missed. Seahawks
at the Jets is interesting to me. I kind of
like Kansas City, big favorite over the Raiders. I'll stay away.
What's the one I missed?
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Well, look the wise guys like the Jets. I'm sorry
to say.
Speaker 3 (23:41):
It's so interesting because on one New York team, you've
got locker room turmoil, you've got quarterback intrigue, you've got
players who are frustrated with the coaching, you've got an
owner who is incredibly frustrated with how the person to
know has sort of fleshed out. And then you've got
(24:05):
another New York team where the owner is basically entering
his Montgomery burns phase right, he is taking a helicopter,
landing it on the field. The GM is standing next
to a coach when the helicopter lands and said, if
I don't come back, it's been a pleasure to.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
Serve with you.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
And then the GM actually gets fired. And this is
after the coach. The owner had fired the coach without
telling anybody, and after the owner had traded for a
receiver without telling anybody, and openly opine, should we be
bencing Annion Rodgers? And yet the wise guys they've been
betting the Giants, but they like the Jets a lot
more against Seattle. I think part of it is like
(24:44):
this is the time to grab a number that is
overinflated on Seattle as much as anything else. So they're
on that. The wise guys, of course they're going to
be on the Raiders. It's not even it's not even
a question. They were on the Raiders when the line
was at thirteen and a half thirteen, twelve and a
half twelve. It got that back up by the public
(25:06):
because Aidan O'Connell was announced as the quarterback. The wise
guys are now just gonna wait see how much more
they can how much of a better price they can
get between now and kickoff on Friday. They're gonna buy
the Raiders.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
One team that I asked you to look at last week,
Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
What it works, Anne, what's the line?
Speaker 3 (25:29):
The line is six? So the Carolina Tampa Bay hosting
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
So the Carolina Panthers at home plus six against Tampa Bay. Yes, yes, well,
I mean.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
TAMPBA wis the wise guys like it. I don't say it.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Well, Baker played perfect, so they come back down to Earth.
I'll be honest with you. I think both Will Levis
and Bryce Young for Tennessee and Carolina respectively, in a
weak college quarterback draft class, have extended their starting franchise
career one more year. I think Bryce Young and Will
Levis looked like, now, let's give them another year.
Speaker 3 (26:03):
I think that's one hundred percent accurate, which is what
Bryce Young has been the past few games. And so
you know in that Kansas City game, he was throwing darts, yeah,
and keeping them in the game, and every time you
looked up, they were driving. And the Bucks defense it's
not as good as Kansas City's. They're playing at home
(26:26):
six points in the division is a ton You're getting
an inflation on the line because of what the Bucks
just did to the Giants.
Speaker 1 (26:34):
So the wise guys like the Panthers go.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
Look, I love the Panthers to start the year, and
they burned me consecutive weeks, so I sort of stayed
away from them and even publicly talking about them. I
went back on them big last week, and I was
glad that I did. I'm a little anxious going back
to the well and the Panthers again, but I have
bet the Panthers at plus six.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
I just feel like it's still a right spot. It's
going to change, but I'm hoping that it doesn't this week.
Speaker 2 (27:04):
So I don't throw your curves, but I want to
talk USC Notre Dame. Notre Dame getting plus seven and
a half so early in the week. I like Notre Dame.
Riley Leonard has cleaned up his game, no turnovers. They
are a team that runs the football. USC not great
defending the run, and I think they're well coach. I
like their culture. USC is playing a quarterback who started
(27:28):
the year on the bench, completes about fifty five percent
of his throws, much looser and mistake prone than Miller Moss,
but much more athletic. They can move the pocket, which
Lincoln Riley historically likes. USC's got some really nice perimeter weapons.
They're at home, no pressure, I mean, I mean, and
I think USC. They beat LSU, they beat UCLA, and
(27:52):
they had Penn State beat They're not bad. Every USC
game looks the exact same. It's close, they lead in
the fourth, then they even lose to Meryl. So my
take is I've gone back and said, you know what,
they're going to lose, but I'm taking the hook. I'm
taking USC plus seven and a half. What are the
sharp saying on that?
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Yeah, if you're getting the hook at home, you should
be taking it. That's sort of the tipping point in
a game like this. The challenge with everything you've said
is the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is now fifth
in the College Football Playoff rankings. Every game, every win,
(28:33):
every margin of victory, every optic is going to matter
going forward. And I know they're locked in with Oregon
and Penn State and Ohio State and Texas like those
are the teams that the College Football Playoff is really
thinking about as one through four. But Notre Dame is
(28:54):
still playing for something that matters in terms of positioning
with the people with the teams behind them. So that's
what scares me a little bit about this game and USC.
You're not wrong, but some of these games you're talking about,
they were earlier in the year and they were a
different team, and there's been a lot of turmoil with
that organization the past month, between the changing and the quarterbacks,
(29:18):
between the fines, you know, people, the recruits who have
been decommitting and going to other places. You know that
USC team and culture much better than I do, but
that feels like an organization where they need this to
be a competitive game in a different way than Notre
Dame does. And Notre Dame is playing for something right
(29:40):
now that feels much much bigger to me than what
USC is playing for. I'm waffling here. You take the hook,
but it's not a game I want any piece.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Of, all right, that's fair. Yeah, it's funny about this
transfer Portal Colorado, LSU, and USC have used it a lot,
and all three of them the season's always end disappointing.
Why Because, in my opinion, this is one of my
theories that you can use the transfer portal to plug holes.
(30:10):
It's very hard to build a culture with all the
interlopers and newcomers, and so what happens over the course
of a season at USC, LSU and Colorado when you
face adversity is when you need a great culture. And
they have better talent, but they don't have great cultures.
They don't have guys that have been together for four
years since high school, and so LSU Colorado USC heavy
(30:33):
transfer portal, whereas a Notre Dame very little transfer portal,
great culture with Marcus Freeman. They had an early loss
that was awful. They've gotten stronger because their culture is better.
So you look at these teams that had early setbacks,
and setbacks can splinter locker rooms and these heavy transfer
(30:58):
portal teams, they all bad. At the end of the season,
a lot of people start going their own way. The
nil guys are looking at the pros so ole Miss
by the way, everybody loves old Miss. Yeah, what happens
against an inferior Florida team they don't play well. Guys
now are going to start heading in their own directions.
So that's what I think I found from the transfer portal.
(31:19):
I can think two things. I like it, but I
wouldn't want to build around it. It's important, but I
don't want it to be my primary infrastructure.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
I'm going to give you an example that supports both
sides of your theory. Indiana Hoosiers, who I went to Indiana.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
Yeah, I love them. I've been so excited for this
team all year.
Speaker 3 (31:42):
Obviously, heavy portalnetty, they use the transfer portal heavily. But
what they did was they basically took the entire team
from James Madison and plug them in. So, yeah, it
worked for them. But the reason it for them is
because they maintained a culture that existed with Chrit Signetti
(32:05):
from where he was before and then brought it to Bloomington.
And that's translated in a very successful way. And what's
more interesting to me also about this is I think
there is an opportunity for teams like Indiana, who have
been middling teams to get the fourth fifth year seniors
(32:25):
who want to keep playing college football. They might not
be great NFL players, but they're incredibly effective, productive, workman
like college football players and their adults. So instead of
the sophomore five star who's not getting any playing time
and is transferring from Texas to Ole Miss.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
They're getting the.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
Fourth year Matt quarterback who was really good and is
time to see if he can stretch his game to
the next level. And he's an adult, and that's just
a different kind of player in college football. I'm not
saying now Indiana has a ceiling on this. We saw
it against Ohio State. You got to get athletes and
people on the edge and all that kind of stuff.
(33:07):
But I think you can build a really successful program
through the portal if you're getting guys who are just
great college football players and not necessarily the highest ceiling athletes.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
Let me throw this at you, speaking of college football.
Ryan Day is sixty six and nine. Obviously he's lost
to good teams Clemson, Georgia, Michigan three times. You know,
he's beating everybody else, beating the brains in and you
know again lost to Oregon. Well, everybody loses it ops
and except the Ducks. Right. So the one thing about
(33:39):
Ohio State in the playoff that is really interesting. So
people think, huh, if Ryan Day beats Michigan, finally the
Wolves will scale back. But the next week it's Oregon.
You can't lose to Oregon twice with Ohio States. So
let's say he beats Michigan and Oregon. Oh, all the
wars are gone. But he loses to Tennessee in the
(34:02):
first round. You're like, wait a minute, I saw who
Tennessee lost to. Tennessee's not a great team. Let's say
they beat Tennessee but then lose to a like, you know,
a Boise State, or they lose to an Arizona State
or somebody else. He's gonna get crushed. Ohio State goes
into the playoff. They're the only team in the playoff
(34:22):
where every single game could potentially get their coach fire
with a sixty six and nine, and that dress that
pressure on Ryan Day and his staff. Like, people want
Sark to win, but Texas has stunk pre Sark for
about twenty years. They're happy as hell. They're going to
(34:43):
get into the playoff for the second year in a row,
and they're just too damn good not to win a
couple of games. And so Sark. If Sark wins two
games in the playoff and loses, he's going to retain
his job. No other team, no other coaching staff faces Oh,
you've got to get to the final and if they
get to the final and lose an overtime to Texas. Okay,
if they go to the final and get blown out
(35:04):
by Texas, that's not good enough. So I think Ohio
State faces this top down pressure from their fan base.
I mean, they went all in on the NAL. Let's
spilt like twenty million dollars in the NAAL. They went
and got Chip Kelly. I don't know if you could
win a national title with that sort of intense insular pressure.
Speaker 3 (35:23):
Well, he has to win the national title with that
intense insular pressure, because I don't think there is any
other out if he doesn't win. They've built a coaching
staff for it, they've built a roster for it, they
have given him every opportunity. He has not been able
to beat Michigan. He could not win in the national
(35:46):
title experience a few years ago, right, even though you
know CJ. Stroud and they lost Marvin Harrison and like
it was a difficult circumstance, they still couldn't win. So
the fact is he is under the most pressure of
any coach going into the playoff.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
You're not wrong.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
A lot of those coaches, like whether they win or not,
they're gonna be fine for the next year. Ryan Day
has not won enough at a school that expects nothing
less than national titles.
Speaker 1 (36:15):
In fact, he's faltered.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
In humiliating ways in the games that matter the most.
They if they go ten to one, eleven and one,
twelve and one every year and they don't beat Michigan
and they don't win a national title, they're irrelevant. They're
just another franchise. So couldn't agree more. I had this
conversation also about Nick Sirianni. You know, the Eagles, all
(36:37):
of a sudden, they've won seven in a row. They're
finally playing well, Like Sae Kwon Barkley is going off,
they like the Lions have a dominant offensive line. Their
defensive line behind Jalen Carter is playing incredibly well. Their
secondary Cooper dejen Like has been one of the top corners.
Quintin Mitchell that one of the top quarters in the
NFL in terms of coverage rookies. Right, Nick Sirianni goes
(37:02):
to the NFC title game and loses. I don't think
he's coming back. I think they'll look at it and say,
this team's talent level is amazing.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
Yeah, we need to coach you can get us to
the next level. So I think you're a couple coaches
who are on spots like that.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
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(38:00):
Second letter of intent day in college football and the
transfer portal, where you're recruiting your own players as much
to stay as much as you are exterior players to
enter college football is not nearly as appealing. You get
very little time off. You're dealing with the NCAA collectives, donors, presidents,
I mean the collectives. You have to be a GM
(38:21):
and you have to be a coach. So I always
thought if I like I asked Jimmy Johnson the other
day we were at Fox and I said, what was
more fun? College or pro? He goes, Oh, college is
way more fun. I mean you're connecting with young kids.
You're changing their lives.
Speaker 1 (38:36):
He goes.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
You know, you go into eighty your games with the
talent advantage, you got two or three big games. It's fun.
You and the staff can go grab petz Is twice
a week. It's fun. NFL you have to be a
hard ass. You're constantly dealing with a crazy owner. You're
constantly having to be a tough coach on your coaches
because they develop close relationships with players. Because players can
(38:57):
stay eight, nine, ten years in college, you're running through players.
They cycle through NFL. You know, a great defensive end
could stay with you eight years. He becomes best friends.
You know, they're going to the weddings of the coaches
and the players. So you constantly have to be on
your assistant coaches and coordinators to be hard asses. He goes,
it's just a lot of work, and I thought, you know, Dion,
(39:18):
I if I said Dion goes pro or Dion just
upgrades to a bigger college program, because I don't think
he stays at Colorado forever. I think it's a cool story.
He doesn't need the money or the NFL pension, so
it's not a money thing with him. He's gonna make
eight ten wherever he goes or more. Do you but
do you think he will follow his son to the
(39:41):
pros or go to a bigger college job. Let's just
take staying at Colorado for ten years off the table.
He may, but let's take it off the table. I
can see him going to an Auburn. I can see
him going to like a like a non traditional power,
but like a good program, like an Auburn, that kind
of thing. Where do you think Dion goes in wa?
Speaker 1 (40:01):
Well, I know what I want. I want Dion in
the NFL.
Speaker 3 (40:06):
I think it'd be fascinating as an experiment because how
many players.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
Are as respected by his players as Dione.
Speaker 3 (40:18):
Right, he is a Hall of Fame athlete, not just
a guy who's a great football player.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
He was a legendary athlete.
Speaker 3 (40:25):
He was doing things that we will be remembered for
generations and a lot of the players he's going to
be coaching. We're not alive when he was playing baseball
and football and he was going to the World Series
and then he was playing in NFL games. I mean,
the guy is just so revered. It'd be like Alan
Iverson coaching an NBA team. That's how revered the guy is.
(40:48):
So I want to see if his ego and his
strategy and his ability to motivate can do that at
the NFL level with professionals.
Speaker 1 (40:57):
How long will it last? Jim Harbaugh.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
One of the problems Jim Harborough has had as a
coach is that his tactics and his personality starts to
wear thin on the people around him. It's what happened
in San Francisco. It happened a little bit at Michigan
until he finally started winning a national title and started
getting that team into the playoff, and then all of
a sudden he had the leverage to leave. So I
(41:21):
don't know how long Dion could last doing what he's
doing because I don't know if Like I am fascinated
by his videos and watching his motivational speeches for his
team and watching how he handles the press, and I
think he's really good at it and will that work
as a molder of young men on players that are
(41:45):
already adults and already making all that money. I think
he's in a great spot in college. I hope that
he knows it. I love it as a fan to
see him in the NFL, But I got to think
he knows how great in college because he knows how
hard it is to coach in the pros because he
was that elite guy.
Speaker 2 (42:05):
Yeah, it's you know, can I throw one more thing
at you because we're doing a little longer version today,
al Throya, let's do it. I love looking at great
businesses and thinking, yeah, but there's a hole in the business, right,
Like there's a hole in the business, and so you know,
like like I'll give you an example. I worry that
(42:29):
the NFL is becoming the NBA. So here's where it
won't be the NBA. It won't be as international hockey
basketball get very international. We don't follow international leagues a
lot of these stars, you know, we don't watch Jokic
play at March Madness. He's a second round pick by
the time he's a star. Unless you watch the NBA nightly,
(42:50):
you don't watch Denver, whereas NFL will always have a
great advantage over all the other sports is we watch
college football. We don't watch much college baseball, college high hockey,
college basketball a little. But international players are half the
guys drafted, so that'll never be a problem. But I
do I'm seeing something this year that the middle of
(43:12):
the NBA has always been soft and the bottom is
awful and large that if you do not have two,
like really high end players, you're not elite. So right
now in the NBA, there's about six really good teams.
The Knicks are really good. I think Cleveland, Boston, OKC, Denver,
(43:32):
Minnesota is really good, although that Julius Randall thing may
not work. There's about six to seven teams I like.
There's a very soft middle where you drop off to
like the Warriors, who are fun but nobody thinks they
can win a title, and the bottom is mostly the
Eastern Conference. It's awful. It's ten teams right now in
the NFL, so I never thought about that. I always
thought the NFL was have have nots, but the have
(43:54):
notts were really small. You start looking at the bottom
of this league now because one months, ten years ago,
the rules changed after the CTE lawsuit to protect quarterbacks.
So it's a very offensive league. The final four coaches
now several years in a row, all offensive guys. Even
guys like Zach Taylor, we don't know are great coaches.
(44:15):
Belichick look completely lost, Pete Carroll great defensive coaches. You
feel like they're tone def to the league. Mike Tomlin
is having a good year, but for five years he
couldn't figure out the O line, the run game. And
so the league now is if you look at the
teams we think can win the Super Bowl, it's mostly
the same teams. It's Baltimore, it's Kansas City, it's Buffalo,
(44:37):
it's I mean, now we look at Philadelphia and there's
a couple of teams like Detroit's a surprised, but they
have a super Bowl quarterback in Jared Goff is that
the NFL's middle is getting larger, the bottom is awful
and getting larger, and that it's because if you don't
have a star quarterback now you just you can't compete.
By week nine, ten eleven, I mean, we were in
(44:59):
week eleven and we're like, I think there's three teams
tanking like, ooh, that's an NBA vibe that I never
had in the NFL. So this is my take, is
that what the NFL will never be the NBA. We
watch it, we bet it. It has a domestic farm
system that we love. But I do see this growing
(45:19):
middle and bottom. And I mean there are a lot
of corner TV games every Sunday, Like used to be one,
it's now six. Do you worry about this? Do you
see this?
Speaker 1 (45:31):
I do see this.
Speaker 3 (45:34):
As with all things, follow the money, right, if you
look at the betting stats four years, the strategy has
been fade the public, you know, just bet against whatever
the public is doing.
Speaker 1 (45:51):
This year, you cannot do that.
Speaker 3 (45:53):
You know, we've talked about this, right, What did a
couple of the operators in their earnings calls at the
end of Q three had to downgrade the revenue expectations
for the year by a combined three hundred million dollars
because of what they deemed euphemistically customer friendly outcomes. What
(46:16):
that means is that the favorites, the teams that the
public bets on, are crushing. And that happened starting in
October and is continued into November. So that's one way
to look at is the teams that are really really
good are winning by really big margins, and that is
not how it has historically been because the delta between
(46:40):
the really really good and the mediocre was still not
as big.
Speaker 1 (46:44):
As it is now. That's Number one.
Speaker 3 (46:46):
I do think that these NFL games, they are becoming unwatchable,
and you're getting a sense from the announcers about this,
like the number of penalties that are about procedures that
are impacting the game and changing the flow and changing
sometimes the outcome, and changing a scoring play and taking
(47:09):
some of the excitement out of the game. I don't
know what the NFL does about that, because they are
always talking about emphasizing certain plays. They want to emphasize
where the player, where the offensive linemen are lining up,
so they're at the beltline of the center. They want
to make sure that offensive linemen aren't going too far downfield.
(47:29):
But everybody likes to run these RPOs and it's impossible
for an offensive lineman to keep their positioning within two
yards of the line of scrimmage. But these penalties are
killing viewing experience as a fan. So that's two. Number three,
It is a terrible live experience. And you know, a
(47:50):
few weeks ago I did this with my kid were
we went to Knicks Bowls at MSG in New York.
The next night I did a show with you, and
then right after we went to Commander's Eagles at the
Lincoln Philadelphia. And then the next day we took a
tour of University of Maryland. We took the train down
to DC toward Maryland, and then we went to the
(48:11):
Maryland Marquee game that night. The basketball experiences live we're
so much better than the NFL experience. It is faster,
it is more exciting. My going to NBA games, it's
like the NFL game there was three seconds of action
and then it's a commercial break, and then you're waiting
for two minutes, and then it's a penalty, and then
(48:32):
you're waiting for two minutes, and it's just like, let's
have a game here, guys, and so like, look, it's
it's it's all.
Speaker 1 (48:42):
A strong man argument. The NFL is not going anywhere.
Speaker 3 (48:44):
The NFL is only going to get bigger, it is
going to get somewhat international. The NBA will never be
as big as the NFL. It is going to suffer
on Christmas Day when the NFL has games, and the
NBA used to own that space. But the NFL is
going to have to come to an understanding of what
this television experience is because if there is this gap
(49:08):
between the good teams and the bad teams, and every
game is going to be a blowout and every game
is going to take three and a half hours because
there's so many penalties, eventually it might not be our lifetime.
Speaker 1 (49:19):
The world is going to turn.
Speaker 2 (49:23):
Chad Milman. All those odds provided by DraftKings. By the way,
this was a good, long one. Happy thanks enjoyed it.
Happy Thanksgiving. I'm thankful for a lot of things. You
know what. I'm thankful for everything, sports, family, health, sports,
good friends. You know, it's funny. I told somebody the
(49:46):
other day, I said, I said, I've always been sort
of odds socially. I said, I think I'm getting better
at that. If I die tomorrow, I know at least
eleven people that would go to my funeral. Last year
it was only like six. So I'm really I'm really
starting to be I'm growing as a human being, and
(50:08):
I'm thankful for that.
Speaker 3 (50:09):
Well, there's a comfort level as you get older, I
am thankful for all those things as well, and like
I got a great life. I have nothing to complain about.
It's like I can't believe how wonderful things are. But
what I have found similar to you socially, I like,
(50:31):
I'm not like I don't love going to parties. Yeah, same,
And I don't love like going out to dinner, but
I do it, and like there are always points in
the evening when I'm I'm like, all right, I gotta go,
and I'll say it like you know, right as dessert
(50:51):
is the last bite of deserters, I'm like, I gotta
get out here, I gotta go, and my wife Stacy
will be like, I can't, Like you just can't do it.
And I found myself this past weekend. We were out
with friends that we both have mutual friends and we
were just relaxing and I was enjoying and I was
hearing stories, and I find myself having a lot more
patience and being a lot more interested in listening to
(51:13):
people more. I don't know what's going on, but I
don't I don't mind it. And it means if it
means I get twelve people at my funeral, fantastic.
Speaker 2 (51:22):
Yeah, Chad doesn't know what's happening, but he's interested in
other people's thoughts now and he doesn't know what to
make of it.
Speaker 1 (51:33):
That's funny, totally just summed it up. What is It's like?
Speaker 3 (51:36):
It's like in Seinfeld, what is this salty discharge coming
from my eyes?
Speaker 2 (51:41):
Like?
Speaker 1 (51:42):
Why is Chad showing interest in other people? What is
happening here? So true? I'm such an asshole.
Speaker 2 (51:51):
No, my favorite people. That's it.
Speaker 1 (51:54):
You're honest, all right, brother, have a great Thanksgiving?
Speaker 2 (51:56):
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All right? It is time for another edition, the Thanksgiving Edition.
(01:09):
It's a tasty one. Sharper Square Chad Millman, co host
of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I
have this is a weird week. I always try to
I'll bet individual games during Thanksgiving, but I think it's
a tough week short rest. Like I'll give you an example.
I like the Packers minus three against the Dolphins. I get.
(01:29):
I think a better roster at home short rest. I
think Miami and Tua's history in cold weather is I
was joking today on the Herd. I'm like, there's a
reason Norway's great in the Winter Olympics and not of
the Summer Olympics. There are truths about weather. Every NCAA
Beach Volleyball championship since it's been created has gone to
(01:52):
USC or UCLA. If you go look at the history
of dynasties in the NFL, starting with Lobardi, Green Bay, Pittsburgh,
New England, Kansas City Steelers, Dallas where by the way,
it snows during Christmas, and San Francisco, which Mark Twain
(02:12):
once said the coldest winter I ever spent was a
summer in San Francisco. There are no warm weather dynasties
because eventually warm teams have to go north, and it's
just the reality of somebody that grows up in the
Keys does not want to live in Baltimore the winter.
So I like the Packers. I think the weather thing
between a Hawaiian quarterback who went to the SEC and Miami,
(02:33):
I think it's real Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
So it's a little bit square. However, you and I
are aligned. The line was at three and a half.
It's come down. The wise guys have been betting on
the Dolphins. It kind of doesn't make much sense to
me to as you mentioned, as a dog in this
spot three and eleven.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
I think on the road against.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Winning teams, So he does not have a good history here.
And if you look at the three games he's been
back beat the Rams on the road, everyone was excited
about it. They're not a winning team. They were not
a winning team when he beat them. Then he just
beat up on the Patriots. The Patriots are statistically the
(03:24):
worst team in the NFL. So you're getting to a
looking really good, and I admit he looked great. And
they've changed their scheme quite a bit. They're not throwing
the ball downfield as much. They're throwing a lot more
sort of in cuts that allow the players like Tyreek
Hill to really get yards after the catch. But going
(03:44):
to Green Bay, it's going to be twenty five degrees.
It's going to be windy. Matt Lafleoor schematically one of
the best coaches in the NFL. We've seen what he
does when he doesn't have a quarterback. Just give the
ball to Josh Jacobs against the Miami's defense. I like
the opportunity for Matt Leflora, who I think is a
(04:05):
better coach than Mike McDaniels. He's sixty plus percent against
the spread as a favorite at home.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
I'm with you. I don't get the move. I like
the Packers. I'm not a buyer on Miami.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
So this line I didn't understand. There's a couple of
lines this week I didn't quite get. So the Steelers
are a much better football operation than Joe Burrow and
the Bengals. And I've talked about this before. The Bengals
moved off Joe Mixon and defensive players before they paid
T Higgins and Jamar Chase. They're just a cheap franchise.
(04:41):
Pittsburgh awful loss is going to be feisty. Pittsburgh is
a dog is great. Burrow's wonderful, but not when he's
sitting on the bench watching a run game, dominate time
of possession. I like the Steelers as a dog plus three,
it's a much better team, sharper square.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Yet of course it's the sharp play. It makes no
sense that the number is even close to three.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
I don't tell it.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
It's been bouncing around.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
It opened to two and a half, got bet up
to three, came back to two and a half. Because
the wise guys know Mike Tomlin as a dog sixty
two percent on the road, he is the best coach
as a dog this generation. Twenty years. He is sixty
(05:31):
two percent as a dog in the division on the road,
sixty four percent when the spread is between one and three.
I do believe that a lot of people are just
enamored with how Joe Burrow has been playing pret year.
He's putting up pinball numbers, right. But this is a
terrible defense. And while they've been off for two weeks,
(05:52):
the Steelers have been off for ten days, and it's
a raw rah Mike Tomlin spot. He makes these guys believe,
and they's still in a position where they can win
that division. So you're not going to want to lose
an in division game. I bet the Steelers on the
money line.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Another dog I like is Arizona plus three and a
half at the Vikings so off of by Arizona was
a mess and a lot of it. With Seattle got
a consistent pass rush, I don't think Minnesota's pass rush
will be that formidable. I also think Arizona, when they
can run the ball, is a really really effective team.
I think they'll have a better chance to run the
(06:29):
ball here. Arizona is inconsistent, but this is a team
that has for the last five weeks. I mean they
went to Miami in one and they went to Santa
Clara in one. I think their personnels better than people think.
They have elite players, Budda Baker's elite, Connor's elite. Mcgride
is a tremendous tight end, Kyler Murray's elite. They don't
(06:49):
have big names on the interior d line, but they
play well. They play above their weight. So I just
think I think this is a close game. Minnesota doesn't
really bury people. Go look at the Jacksonville game, go
look at the Chicago game. They're not Philadelphia, they don't
blow over you. They make mistakes, they're missing their great
left tackle. They're a good team, they're not special. They're
(07:12):
well coached with some nice playmakers. But you watch the
Minnesota game, that's a go either way football game, it
doesn't look like either team is significantly more talented and
one is in turmoil, and you're like, I don't know,
they kind of look the same. I'm taking the three
and a half with Arizona Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
Eh, it's kind of an ish, like there's no consensus.
It's not a lot of interest, to be honest, from
the wise guys. There's some games on the board that
the wise guys have planted a flag in the sand on.
This is not one of them. A lot of the
wise guys liked Arizona last week. They feel a little
burned by what happened in Seattle. You still don't know,
(07:53):
we said last week. They put all their cards on
the table, right, pun intended, and they come off to buy.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Kyler looks disinterested.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
So what are you going to be getting the second
week going against Minnesota, which still has a lot to lose,
And you're right, they gave it away against the Bears.
Like the Bears should not even have been close to
turning that game into an overtime game so that they
come out with a little more intensity this week. It's
just a hard one and handicap.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
I think. I think the line is kind of right
exactly where it.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Is, Okay, a favorite. I like Buffalo at home minus seven,
well rested and waiting for a nine ers team. Bosa
didn't practice, Trent Williams didn't practice. I'm not sure if
that locker room. I mean, if Bosa doesn't play, that's
a very average D line. Buffalo's rested, they're healthy. You know,
(08:45):
they're a team that they're playing for the number one
seed here. And by the way, Alan the backup for
San Francisco, that's not going to work. That's just not
good enough. And Brock Prudy, who never has a great arm,
is now dealing with a shoulder in shoot again, this
is not a guy with a whip to begin with.
This is the rare. I think the Niners are living
(09:06):
off reputation. I just don't think they're a very special
football team. Five and seven in their last twelve. I'm
going to lay the seven. I like Buffalo sharper square.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Sure, I mean the wise guys had been betting Buffalo.
It opened at six and a half, it's got up
to seven. I think the real question why it sort
of hasn't exploded, and we saw this last week with
the Packers, is Brock Purdy. What's his status going to be?
So no one's going to overinvest until they get a
real sense of what whether or not he's going to
be playing. I agree with you about Nick Bosa. If
(09:39):
you watch that game against the Seahawks, he was the
difference when he was playing, they were in control of
that game. Gino Smith was harassed, he was making bad
decisions and bad throws when he was no longer playing
in that game, Gino Smith goes on a drive in
the final two minutes that wins them the game, and
now all of a sudden it's propelling saddle into Seattle
(10:00):
and everyone thinking they're a super special team and they
could potentially win the NFC West. Nick Boson not being
there and Trent Williams are those are massive, massive missing pieces.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
I like the Titans plus five and a half at
the Commander's I think Cliff Kingsbury does this single guy
a lot of time in the summer, plays some golf,
and comes up with a new offense, and I think
it fools people, and then all of a sudden, about
mid October to late October, if you look at his
history in college or pro football, people catch up and
(10:38):
then you're left with a September offense in November. And
I just don't think the Commander's I mean Jesus, it's
like the Cowboys had the Commander's playbook. They would flush
Daniels out of the pocket and there were guys just
waiting for him. And I think Tennessee is really good upfront, defensively,
very disruptive. I think Will Levis still makes He's got
(11:01):
that Will Levis Carson Wentz reckless gene. But you know what,
I think he's played himself into another year starting and
I think you can sense it. I think he doesn't
feel as apprehensive.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
I just don't.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
I'm not giving up five and a half points for
anybody against the Commanders. I think they're just right now,
an average roster. They have laid out their cards, everybody's
seen them. I'm taking the five and a half. I
think Tennessee's a tough, physical team. Is Houston found out
Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
Yeah, you nail that it's totally sharp. The interesting thing
here is the line moved from six and a half
to six to five and a half early in the week,
and for what we're talking about here, early in the
week was really Monday, and that was a consensus professional move.
I bet it at five and a half. It moved
up a little bit to six six and a half again,
(11:52):
and now it's come back down. I couldn't agree with
you more. The cliff cliff, the Cliff Kingsbury cliff. Mid
season is real. Statistically, right, Texas Tech they would get
to the middle point of the year, they would lose. Cardinals,
they would get to the middle point of the year,
they would lose. If you want to pack that, it's
(12:14):
somewhat circumstantial, right, you can look at Texas Tech and
be like, Okay, they played Patsy's in the beginning of
the year, they get into the conference, the schedule gets
hush right, right, and the Cardinals a couple times, he
had Kyler Murray injured, didn't have the full scope of
his talent, and all of a sudden the team isn't
as good. But it's happening again. It's happening this time
because Jade Daniels is injured and has been playing injured,
(12:37):
and after that rocket start the first four weeks of
the year, he's barely completing seventy percent of his passes.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
After a start he was completing eighty percent.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
Right, you look at the flip side, and yes, Tennessee
they have a very good defense.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
They've been playing better.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
Last week they gave up eight sacks and Will Levis
had a pick six and they still beat Texans who
have a better quarterback in the Washington Commanders. And I
do think that this is going to be the worst
defense Will Levis has faced this season, and he has
an opportunity here to be pressured a little bit less
(13:14):
and get the ball, push the ball downfield, which is
what he's really good at, and that's when he's most comfortable.
So well as guys are with you, that's a sharp play.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
I don't know how many people will watch this. I
like the Texans minus four at the Jags. I don't
know what the Jags are playing for. I think that's
a kind of a ugly, toxic locker room where people
have bailed. I think the Texans off one of their
worst performances of the year. It means a lot. They're
playing for more. They're pissed off. They have an issue
(13:44):
with protection guard center guard, but they've got just simply
better players playing for more, and frankly, a better quarterback.
If Trevor Lawrence plays, he's not close to one hundred percent.
I think they have a coaching advantage, a coordinating advantage.
This feels like my second favorite bet of the week.
I'm going to take the Texans minus four at the
Jag Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (14:04):
Well, I wish you hadn't said it was your second
favorite favorite. The wise guys are all over the Jags
in this game. They love the Jags. They've moved from
five to four and a half to four.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
Yeah, it's it's an interesting one for me personally. I
agree with you it's a pass. I think the wise
guys are looking at CJ. Stroud and thinking it's not
that he's not progressing, it's that he's the protection's terriblake. Well,
he's playing like a normal quarterback right and like his
(14:36):
interception percentage was so low last year that it doubles
this year, and all of a sudden it's at league
average and everyone thinks, oh my god, there's something wrong.
With him, they're playing different defenses. Again, it's him, so
his coverage is different, and he hasn't had his best players,
so and and and the offensive line protection is terrible,
truly terrible.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
You can tell letting everything a second early everything.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Yeah, and he's also a gunslinger, right like he likes
to let it go. He's not going to stop being aggressive.
As he said last week, you got to shoot your shot.
So I think that the wise guys are looking at
this and saying division game on the road, JAG's last
chance to make a stand if Trevor Lawrence is playing,
the sort of betting on the opportunity that he might
be playing. And they thought the number was a little
(15:20):
bit too high, so they're taking a piece of that
while they can.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Lions either minus nine or nine and a half at
home against Chicago. So Detroit played by their standards poorly
last week on the road and beat a pretty good
roster soundly. Chicago's had back to back games, heartbreaking games
where they really should win the game and they don't.
And I just wonder about their metal. I just wonder
(15:46):
about how deep the reservoir of disappointment is with Chicago.
I also think when you play Detroit, you always play
from behind. Now, maybe that doesn't Affectkayleb Williams because he
was very good behind against Minus. He's such a playmaker.
But I could see this game becoming thirty eight thirteen
really really fast. I'm going to swallow the points Detroit
(16:10):
minus nine, nine and a half sharper square.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Is this your favorite favorite?
Speaker 2 (16:15):
No? I like Buffalo as my favorite favorite.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
Okay, so the Wise guys have been all over the Bears.
It went from ten and a half to ten to
nine and a half. As of Wednesday afternoon it was
at nine. I am shocked. I feel like this is
a massive overreaction to the Bears, to two games of
(16:40):
Caleb Williams playing well, still not winning, but playing well.
And by the way, in order to make that game
against Minnesota look halfway decent in the final score, he
needed three miracle passes. And I know you've been spending
a lot of time on Caleb Williams this week and
(17:00):
this season on the show. One of your rants from
earlier this week is like lighting up my Chicago friends
text chain because you've nailed every single component of this,
especially about Matt Eberfluse. This is a terrible coach. He's
a fine defensive coordinator. This is a coaching mismatch in
(17:23):
a short week with a Lions team that got to
really pull back on the throttle against the Colts and
the Bears team that had to go into overtime to
lose and now has to play the earlier game on Thursday.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Like, how does this coaching staff turn it around?
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Right? That's number one. Number two, I believe being physical travels.
It is the one thing that is consistent in football.
Quarterbacks are going to have bad games, Receivers are going
to drop passes. But when you can block the line
of scrimmage and dominate your opponent, that is the same
(18:03):
every single week. And we saw it last week with
the Lions. I loved the Colts last week. The Lions
go out and just beat up a very physical team
in the Colts. So now we've got a team in
the Lions second overall in success rate, meaning they get
a higher percentage of yardage on each down towards a
(18:24):
first down than any other team except for one second
in rush success rate. Second in rush expected points per rush,
meaning do they get the number of points does the
rush lead to a point on the scoreboard, it's the
second best in the league EPA expected points overall third.
(18:45):
The Bears twenty sixth in the NFL in rushing. Their
rush defense is terrible. People want to talk about how
good their pass rush is and could they do something
to Jared Goff. I don't care because if it's third
and eight for the Lions, they know they're going to
go four and fourth down, going to give Jamir Gibs
the ball, and he's going to gain five yards, and
then they're going to go four on four and three. Like,
(19:05):
I don't see what this feels like, just a massive mismatch.
I think we're seeing something historical with the lines. I
think we're seeing something we see generationally, and I think
wise guys here are playing a two game sample size
and betting against a number that I'm not buying.
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Speaker 2 (21:02):
I always have a game every week. I want your expertise.
So I think the Chargers are a better team than
the Falcons. But I also think the Falcons are rested,
they're at home, and I think they're more explosive offensively.
I feel like with the Chargers, and I've seen this
now a couple times this year, because they don't have playmakers.
Quentin Johnson officially can't catch that. They score basically on
(21:26):
big drives nine play drives, ten play drives, eleven play drives. Well,
you're asking for perfect football. You know Philadelphia can have penalties.
Saquon Barkley rips off a fifty seven yarder AJ Brown
over the top. You need freebies. You can't live on
twelve play drives. And that's what the Chargers have to do.
And the middle of their interior of their own line
(21:47):
isn't good enough so they get holding calls. They don't
have receivers that separate. I'm guessing the Sharps like Atlanta
plus one at home.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
Back and forth.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
The line actually moved up from one and a half
to to two and a half. And I think that
the sentiment is that people were actually impressed with the
Chargers and that the difference in that game against the
Ravens was JK. Dobbins leaving the game and it completely
changed the tenor. And you're right about the offensive line,
(22:24):
especially the interior the offensive line. That's where the Ravens
were getting pressure. The Falcons can't get pressure. They're not
the Ravens. They really can't get any pressure at all.
And so that's not expected to be a factor for
the Chargers.
Speaker 1 (22:38):
I will tell you it's sort of and not.
Speaker 3 (22:40):
The line has come back down, which tells you that
the wise guys felt the line had gotten too high,
and there's been some buyback. And by the way, this
is a very common thing. There are a lot of
professional betters who might like the Falcons and want the
line to be a little bit different. So early in
the week, what do they do. They bet on the Chargers,
say five grand ten grand whatever, move the line up,
(23:03):
and then when it gets to a certain point they
bet fifty grand sixty grand on the Falcons. Right, So
they're paying a little bit of a premium to get
the line to move so they can get better price
on the team they really want.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
That could have happened this week. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
I haven't heard that, but it's possible. So there's no
it's a long way of saying there's no real consensus
here on what this game should be.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
Okay, Chad, And there's always one that I missed. Seahawks
at the Jets is interesting to me. I kind of
like Kansas City, big favorite over the Raiders. I'll stay away.
What's the one I missed?
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Well, look the wise guys like the Jets. I'm sorry
to say.
Speaker 3 (23:41):
It's so interesting because on one New York team, you've
got locker room turmoil, you've got quarterback intrigue, you've got
players who are frustrated with the coaching, you've got an
owner who is incredibly frustrated with how the person to
know has sort of fleshed out. And then you've got
(24:05):
another New York team where the owner is basically entering
his Montgomery burns phase right, he is taking a helicopter,
landing it on the field. The GM is standing next
to a coach when the helicopter lands and said, if
I don't come back, it's been a pleasure to.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
Serve with you.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
And then the GM actually gets fired. And this is
after the coach. The owner had fired the coach without
telling anybody, and after the owner had traded for a
receiver without telling anybody, and openly opine, should we be
bencing Annion Rodgers? And yet the wise guys they've been
betting the Giants, but they like the Jets a lot
more against Seattle. I think part of it is like
(24:44):
this is the time to grab a number that is
overinflated on Seattle as much as anything else. So they're
on that. The wise guys, of course they're going to
be on the Raiders. It's not even it's not even
a question. They were on the Raiders when the line
was at thirteen and a half thirteen, twelve and a
half twelve. It got that back up by the public
(25:06):
because Aidan O'Connell was announced as the quarterback. The wise
guys are now just gonna wait see how much more
they can how much of a better price they can
get between now and kickoff on Friday. They're gonna buy
the Raiders.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
One team that I asked you to look at last week,
Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
What it works, Anne, what's the line?
Speaker 3 (25:29):
The line is six? So the Carolina Tampa Bay hosting
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
So the Carolina Panthers at home plus six against Tampa Bay. Yes, yes, well,
I mean.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
TAMPBA wis the wise guys like it. I don't say it.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Well, Baker played perfect, so they come back down to Earth.
I'll be honest with you. I think both Will Levis
and Bryce Young for Tennessee and Carolina respectively, in a
weak college quarterback draft class, have extended their starting franchise
career one more year. I think Bryce Young and Will
Levis looked like, now, let's give them another year.
Speaker 3 (26:03):
I think that's one hundred percent accurate, which is what
Bryce Young has been the past few games. And so
you know in that Kansas City game, he was throwing darts, yeah,
and keeping them in the game, and every time you
looked up, they were driving. And the Bucks defense it's
not as good as Kansas City's. They're playing at home
(26:26):
six points in the division is a ton You're getting
an inflation on the line because of what the Bucks
just did to the Giants.
Speaker 1 (26:34):
So the wise guys like the Panthers go.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
Look, I love the Panthers to start the year, and
they burned me consecutive weeks, so I sort of stayed
away from them and even publicly talking about them. I
went back on them big last week, and I was
glad that I did. I'm a little anxious going back
to the well and the Panthers again, but I have
bet the Panthers at plus six.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
I just feel like it's still a right spot. It's
going to change, but I'm hoping that it doesn't this week.
Speaker 2 (27:04):
So I don't throw your curves, but I want to
talk USC Notre Dame. Notre Dame getting plus seven and
a half so early in the week. I like Notre Dame.
Riley Leonard has cleaned up his game, no turnovers. They
are a team that runs the football. USC not great
defending the run, and I think they're well coach. I
like their culture. USC is playing a quarterback who started
(27:28):
the year on the bench, completes about fifty five percent
of his throws, much looser and mistake prone than Miller Moss,
but much more athletic. They can move the pocket, which
Lincoln Riley historically likes. USC's got some really nice perimeter weapons.
They're at home, no pressure, I mean, I mean, and
I think USC. They beat LSU, they beat UCLA, and
(27:52):
they had Penn State beat They're not bad. Every USC
game looks the exact same. It's close, they lead in
the fourth, then they even lose to Meryl. So my
take is I've gone back and said, you know what,
they're going to lose, but I'm taking the hook. I'm
taking USC plus seven and a half. What are the
sharp saying on that?
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Yeah, if you're getting the hook at home, you should
be taking it. That's sort of the tipping point in
a game like this. The challenge with everything you've said
is the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is now fifth
in the College Football Playoff rankings. Every game, every win,
(28:33):
every margin of victory, every optic is going to matter
going forward. And I know they're locked in with Oregon
and Penn State and Ohio State and Texas like those
are the teams that the College Football Playoff is really
thinking about as one through four. But Notre Dame is
(28:54):
still playing for something that matters in terms of positioning
with the people with the teams behind them. So that's
what scares me a little bit about this game and USC.
You're not wrong, but some of these games you're talking about,
they were earlier in the year and they were a
different team, and there's been a lot of turmoil with
that organization the past month, between the changing and the quarterbacks,
(29:18):
between the fines, you know, people, the recruits who have
been decommitting and going to other places. You know that
USC team and culture much better than I do, but
that feels like an organization where they need this to
be a competitive game in a different way than Notre
Dame does. And Notre Dame is playing for something right
(29:40):
now that feels much much bigger to me than what
USC is playing for. I'm waffling here. You take the hook,
but it's not a game I want any piece.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Of, all right, that's fair. Yeah, it's funny about this
transfer Portal Colorado, LSU, and USC have used it a lot,
and all three of them the season's always end disappointing.
Why Because, in my opinion, this is one of my
theories that you can use the transfer portal to plug holes.
(30:10):
It's very hard to build a culture with all the
interlopers and newcomers, and so what happens over the course
of a season at USC, LSU and Colorado when you
face adversity is when you need a great culture. And
they have better talent, but they don't have great cultures.
They don't have guys that have been together for four
years since high school, and so LSU Colorado USC heavy
(30:33):
transfer portal, whereas a Notre Dame very little transfer portal,
great culture with Marcus Freeman. They had an early loss
that was awful. They've gotten stronger because their culture is better.
So you look at these teams that had early setbacks,
and setbacks can splinter locker rooms and these heavy transfer
(30:58):
portal teams, they all bad. At the end of the season,
a lot of people start going their own way. The
nil guys are looking at the pros so ole Miss
by the way, everybody loves old Miss. Yeah, what happens
against an inferior Florida team they don't play well. Guys
now are going to start heading in their own directions.
So that's what I think I found from the transfer portal.
(31:19):
I can think two things. I like it, but I
wouldn't want to build around it. It's important, but I
don't want it to be my primary infrastructure.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
I'm going to give you an example that supports both
sides of your theory. Indiana Hoosiers, who I went to Indiana.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
Yeah, I love them. I've been so excited for this
team all year.
Speaker 3 (31:42):
Obviously, heavy portalnetty, they use the transfer portal heavily. But
what they did was they basically took the entire team
from James Madison and plug them in. So, yeah, it
worked for them. But the reason it for them is
because they maintained a culture that existed with Chrit Signetti
(32:05):
from where he was before and then brought it to Bloomington.
And that's translated in a very successful way. And what's
more interesting to me also about this is I think
there is an opportunity for teams like Indiana, who have
been middling teams to get the fourth fifth year seniors
(32:25):
who want to keep playing college football. They might not
be great NFL players, but they're incredibly effective, productive, workman
like college football players and their adults. So instead of
the sophomore five star who's not getting any playing time
and is transferring from Texas to Ole Miss.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
They're getting the.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
Fourth year Matt quarterback who was really good and is
time to see if he can stretch his game to
the next level. And he's an adult, and that's just
a different kind of player in college football. I'm not
saying now Indiana has a ceiling on this. We saw
it against Ohio State. You got to get athletes and
people on the edge and all that kind of stuff.
(33:07):
But I think you can build a really successful program
through the portal if you're getting guys who are just
great college football players and not necessarily the highest ceiling athletes.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
Let me throw this at you, speaking of college football.
Ryan Day is sixty six and nine. Obviously he's lost
to good teams Clemson, Georgia, Michigan three times. You know,
he's beating everybody else, beating the brains in and you
know again lost to Oregon. Well, everybody loses it ops
and except the Ducks. Right. So the one thing about
(33:39):
Ohio State in the playoff that is really interesting. So
people think, huh, if Ryan Day beats Michigan, finally the
Wolves will scale back. But the next week it's Oregon.
You can't lose to Oregon twice with Ohio States. So
let's say he beats Michigan and Oregon. Oh, all the
wars are gone. But he loses to Tennessee in the
(34:02):
first round. You're like, wait a minute, I saw who
Tennessee lost to. Tennessee's not a great team. Let's say
they beat Tennessee but then lose to a like, you know,
a Boise State, or they lose to an Arizona State
or somebody else. He's gonna get crushed. Ohio State goes
into the playoff. They're the only team in the playoff
(34:22):
where every single game could potentially get their coach fire
with a sixty six and nine, and that dress that
pressure on Ryan Day and his staff. Like, people want
Sark to win, but Texas has stunk pre Sark for
about twenty years. They're happy as hell. They're going to
(34:43):
get into the playoff for the second year in a row,
and they're just too damn good not to win a
couple of games. And so Sark. If Sark wins two
games in the playoff and loses, he's going to retain
his job. No other team, no other coaching staff faces Oh,
you've got to get to the final and if they
get to the final and lose an overtime to Texas. Okay,
if they go to the final and get blown out
(35:04):
by Texas, that's not good enough. So I think Ohio
State faces this top down pressure from their fan base.
I mean, they went all in on the NAL. Let's
spilt like twenty million dollars in the NAAL. They went
and got Chip Kelly. I don't know if you could
win a national title with that sort of intense insular pressure.
Speaker 3 (35:23):
Well, he has to win the national title with that
intense insular pressure, because I don't think there is any
other out if he doesn't win. They've built a coaching
staff for it, they've built a roster for it, they
have given him every opportunity. He has not been able
to beat Michigan. He could not win in the national
(35:46):
title experience a few years ago, right, even though you
know CJ. Stroud and they lost Marvin Harrison and like
it was a difficult circumstance, they still couldn't win. So
the fact is he is under the most pressure of
any coach going into the playoff.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
You're not wrong.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
A lot of those coaches, like whether they win or not,
they're gonna be fine for the next year. Ryan Day
has not won enough at a school that expects nothing
less than national titles.
Speaker 1 (36:15):
In fact, he's faltered.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
In humiliating ways in the games that matter the most.
They if they go ten to one, eleven and one,
twelve and one every year and they don't beat Michigan
and they don't win a national title, they're irrelevant. They're
just another franchise. So couldn't agree more. I had this
conversation also about Nick Sirianni. You know, the Eagles, all
(36:37):
of a sudden, they've won seven in a row. They're
finally playing well, Like Sae Kwon Barkley is going off,
they like the Lions have a dominant offensive line. Their
defensive line behind Jalen Carter is playing incredibly well. Their
secondary Cooper dejen Like has been one of the top corners.
Quintin Mitchell that one of the top quarters in the
NFL in terms of coverage rookies. Right, Nick Sirianni goes
(37:02):
to the NFC title game and loses. I don't think
he's coming back. I think they'll look at it and say,
this team's talent level is amazing.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
Yeah, we need to coach you can get us to
the next level. So I think you're a couple coaches
who are on spots like that.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
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(38:00):
Second letter of intent day in college football and the
transfer portal, where you're recruiting your own players as much
to stay as much as you are exterior players to
enter college football is not nearly as appealing. You get
very little time off. You're dealing with the NCAA collectives, donors, presidents,
I mean the collectives. You have to be a GM
(38:21):
and you have to be a coach. So I always
thought if I like I asked Jimmy Johnson the other
day we were at Fox and I said, what was
more fun? College or pro? He goes, Oh, college is
way more fun. I mean you're connecting with young kids.
You're changing their lives.
Speaker 1 (38:36):
He goes.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
You know, you go into eighty your games with the
talent advantage, you got two or three big games. It's fun.
You and the staff can go grab petz Is twice
a week. It's fun. NFL you have to be a
hard ass. You're constantly dealing with a crazy owner. You're
constantly having to be a tough coach on your coaches
because they develop close relationships with players. Because players can
(38:57):
stay eight, nine, ten years in college, you're running through players.
They cycle through NFL. You know, a great defensive end
could stay with you eight years. He becomes best friends.
You know, they're going to the weddings of the coaches
and the players. So you constantly have to be on
your assistant coaches and coordinators to be hard asses. He goes,
it's just a lot of work, and I thought, you know, Dion,
(39:18):
I if I said Dion goes pro or Dion just
upgrades to a bigger college program, because I don't think
he stays at Colorado forever. I think it's a cool story.
He doesn't need the money or the NFL pension, so
it's not a money thing with him. He's gonna make
eight ten wherever he goes or more. Do you but
do you think he will follow his son to the
(39:41):
pros or go to a bigger college job. Let's just
take staying at Colorado for ten years off the table.
He may, but let's take it off the table. I
can see him going to an Auburn. I can see
him going to like a like a non traditional power,
but like a good program, like an Auburn, that kind
of thing. Where do you think Dion goes in wa?
Speaker 1 (40:01):
Well, I know what I want. I want Dion in
the NFL.
Speaker 3 (40:06):
I think it'd be fascinating as an experiment because how
many players.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
Are as respected by his players as Dione.
Speaker 3 (40:18):
Right, he is a Hall of Fame athlete, not just
a guy who's a great football player.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
He was a legendary athlete.
Speaker 3 (40:25):
He was doing things that we will be remembered for
generations and a lot of the players he's going to
be coaching. We're not alive when he was playing baseball
and football and he was going to the World Series
and then he was playing in NFL games. I mean,
the guy is just so revered. It'd be like Alan
Iverson coaching an NBA team. That's how revered the guy is.
(40:48):
So I want to see if his ego and his
strategy and his ability to motivate can do that at
the NFL level with professionals.
Speaker 1 (40:57):
How long will it last? Jim Harbaugh.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
One of the problems Jim Harborough has had as a
coach is that his tactics and his personality starts to
wear thin on the people around him. It's what happened
in San Francisco. It happened a little bit at Michigan
until he finally started winning a national title and started
getting that team into the playoff, and then all of
a sudden he had the leverage to leave. So I
(41:21):
don't know how long Dion could last doing what he's
doing because I don't know if Like I am fascinated
by his videos and watching his motivational speeches for his
team and watching how he handles the press, and I
think he's really good at it and will that work
as a molder of young men on players that are
(41:45):
already adults and already making all that money. I think
he's in a great spot in college. I hope that
he knows it. I love it as a fan to
see him in the NFL, But I got to think
he knows how great in college because he knows how
hard it is to coach in the pros because he
was that elite guy.
Speaker 2 (42:05):
Yeah, it's you know, can I throw one more thing
at you because we're doing a little longer version today,
al Throya, let's do it. I love looking at great
businesses and thinking, yeah, but there's a hole in the business, right,
Like there's a hole in the business, and so you know,
like like I'll give you an example. I worry that
(42:29):
the NFL is becoming the NBA. So here's where it
won't be the NBA. It won't be as international hockey
basketball get very international. We don't follow international leagues a
lot of these stars, you know, we don't watch Jokic
play at March Madness. He's a second round pick by
the time he's a star. Unless you watch the NBA nightly,
(42:50):
you don't watch Denver, whereas NFL will always have a
great advantage over all the other sports is we watch
college football. We don't watch much college baseball, college high hockey,
college basketball a little. But international players are half the
guys drafted, so that'll never be a problem. But I
do I'm seeing something this year that the middle of
(43:12):
the NBA has always been soft and the bottom is
awful and large that if you do not have two,
like really high end players, you're not elite. So right
now in the NBA, there's about six really good teams.
The Knicks are really good. I think Cleveland, Boston, OKC, Denver,
(43:32):
Minnesota is really good, although that Julius Randall thing may
not work. There's about six to seven teams I like.
There's a very soft middle where you drop off to
like the Warriors, who are fun but nobody thinks they
can win a title, and the bottom is mostly the
Eastern Conference. It's awful. It's ten teams right now in
the NFL, so I never thought about that. I always
thought the NFL was have have nots, but the have
(43:54):
notts were really small. You start looking at the bottom
of this league now because one months, ten years ago,
the rules changed after the CTE lawsuit to protect quarterbacks.
So it's a very offensive league. The final four coaches
now several years in a row, all offensive guys. Even
guys like Zach Taylor, we don't know are great coaches.
(44:15):
Belichick look completely lost, Pete Carroll great defensive coaches. You
feel like they're tone def to the league. Mike Tomlin
is having a good year, but for five years he
couldn't figure out the O line, the run game. And
so the league now is if you look at the
teams we think can win the Super Bowl, it's mostly
the same teams. It's Baltimore, it's Kansas City, it's Buffalo,
(44:37):
it's I mean, now we look at Philadelphia and there's
a couple of teams like Detroit's a surprised, but they
have a super Bowl quarterback in Jared Goff is that
the NFL's middle is getting larger, the bottom is awful
and getting larger, and that it's because if you don't
have a star quarterback now you just you can't compete.
By week nine, ten eleven, I mean, we were in
(44:59):
week eleven and we're like, I think there's three teams
tanking like, ooh, that's an NBA vibe that I never
had in the NFL. So this is my take, is
that what the NFL will never be the NBA. We
watch it, we bet it. It has a domestic farm
system that we love. But I do see this growing
(45:19):
middle and bottom. And I mean there are a lot
of corner TV games every Sunday, Like used to be one,
it's now six. Do you worry about this? Do you
see this?
Speaker 1 (45:31):
I do see this.
Speaker 3 (45:34):
As with all things, follow the money, right, if you
look at the betting stats four years, the strategy has
been fade the public, you know, just bet against whatever
the public is doing.
Speaker 1 (45:51):
This year, you cannot do that.
Speaker 3 (45:53):
You know, we've talked about this, right, What did a
couple of the operators in their earnings calls at the
end of Q three had to downgrade the revenue expectations
for the year by a combined three hundred million dollars
because of what they deemed euphemistically customer friendly outcomes. What
(46:16):
that means is that the favorites, the teams that the
public bets on, are crushing. And that happened starting in
October and is continued into November. So that's one way
to look at is the teams that are really really
good are winning by really big margins, and that is
not how it has historically been because the delta between
(46:40):
the really really good and the mediocre was still not
as big.
Speaker 1 (46:44):
As it is now. That's Number one.
Speaker 3 (46:46):
I do think that these NFL games, they are becoming unwatchable,
and you're getting a sense from the announcers about this,
like the number of penalties that are about procedures that
are impacting the game and changing the flow and changing
sometimes the outcome, and changing a scoring play and taking
(47:09):
some of the excitement out of the game. I don't
know what the NFL does about that, because they are
always talking about emphasizing certain plays. They want to emphasize
where the player, where the offensive linemen are lining up,
so they're at the beltline of the center. They want
to make sure that offensive linemen aren't going too far downfield.
(47:29):
But everybody likes to run these RPOs and it's impossible
for an offensive lineman to keep their positioning within two
yards of the line of scrimmage. But these penalties are
killing viewing experience as a fan. So that's two. Number three,
It is a terrible live experience. And you know, a
(47:50):
few weeks ago I did this with my kid were
we went to Knicks Bowls at MSG in New York.
The next night I did a show with you, and
then right after we went to Commander's Eagles at the
Lincoln Philadelphia. And then the next day we took a
tour of University of Maryland. We took the train down
to DC toward Maryland, and then we went to the
(48:11):
Maryland Marquee game that night. The basketball experiences live we're
so much better than the NFL experience. It is faster,
it is more exciting. My going to NBA games, it's
like the NFL game there was three seconds of action
and then it's a commercial break, and then you're waiting
for two minutes, and then it's a penalty, and then
(48:32):
you're waiting for two minutes, and it's just like, let's
have a game here, guys, and so like, look, it's
it's it's all.
Speaker 1 (48:42):
A strong man argument. The NFL is not going anywhere.
Speaker 3 (48:44):
The NFL is only going to get bigger, it is
going to get somewhat international. The NBA will never be
as big as the NFL. It is going to suffer
on Christmas Day when the NFL has games, and the
NBA used to own that space. But the NFL is
going to have to come to an understanding of what
this television experience is because if there is this gap
(49:08):
between the good teams and the bad teams, and every
game is going to be a blowout and every game
is going to take three and a half hours because
there's so many penalties, eventually it might not be our lifetime.
Speaker 1 (49:19):
The world is going to turn.
Speaker 2 (49:23):
Chad Milman. All those odds provided by DraftKings. By the way,
this was a good, long one. Happy thanks enjoyed it.
Happy Thanksgiving. I'm thankful for a lot of things. You
know what. I'm thankful for everything, sports, family, health, sports,
good friends. You know, it's funny. I told somebody the
(49:46):
other day, I said, I said, I've always been sort
of odds socially. I said, I think I'm getting better
at that. If I die tomorrow, I know at least
eleven people that would go to my funeral. Last year
it was only like six. So I'm really I'm really
starting to be I'm growing as a human being, and
(50:08):
I'm thankful for that.
Speaker 3 (50:09):
Well, there's a comfort level as you get older, I
am thankful for all those things as well, and like
I got a great life. I have nothing to complain about.
It's like I can't believe how wonderful things are. But
what I have found similar to you socially, I like,
(50:31):
I'm not like I don't love going to parties. Yeah, same,
And I don't love like going out to dinner, but
I do it, and like there are always points in
the evening when I'm I'm like, all right, I gotta go,
and I'll say it like you know, right as dessert
(50:51):
is the last bite of deserters, I'm like, I gotta
get out here, I gotta go, and my wife Stacy
will be like, I can't, Like you just can't do it.
And I found myself this past weekend. We were out
with friends that we both have mutual friends and we
were just relaxing and I was enjoying and I was
hearing stories, and I find myself having a lot more
patience and being a lot more interested in listening to
(51:13):
people more. I don't know what's going on, but I
don't I don't mind it. And it means if it
means I get twelve people at my funeral, fantastic.
Speaker 2 (51:22):
Yeah, Chad doesn't know what's happening, but he's interested in
other people's thoughts now and he doesn't know what to
make of it.
Speaker 1 (51:33):
That's funny, totally just summed it up. What is It's like?
Speaker 3 (51:36):
It's like in Seinfeld, what is this salty discharge coming
from my eyes?
Speaker 2 (51:41):
Like?
Speaker 1 (51:42):
Why is Chad showing interest in other people? What is
happening here? So true? I'm such an asshole.
Speaker 2 (51:51):
No, my favorite people. That's it.
Speaker 1 (51:54):
You're honest, all right, brother, have a great Thanksgiving?
Speaker 2 (51:56):
All right, the volume. Let's talk about something really really important.
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Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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