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May 13, 2024 40 mins

Colin reacts to NBA playoff action as the Nuggets and Pacers even their respective series. Colin says the Knicks don't have the talent to compete this year, but the future might be interesting.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to The Herd podcast. Be sure to
catch us live every weekday on Fox Sports Radio in
noon to three eastern nine am to noon Pacific. Find
your local station for The Herd at Fox Sports Radio
dot com, or stream us live every day on the
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Speaker 2 (00:21):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
All right, here we go. It is a Monday live
in Los Angeles. It's The Herd. Wherever you may be
and however you may be listening. Thanks for making us
part of your name. Jamak, Colin Wright, Colin Wrang, one
hour plenty of bolt from now. How about Denver the
Heart of a Champion. We thought they were cooked.

Speaker 3 (00:46):
I thought it was over.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
I thought it was over.

Speaker 4 (00:49):
Yeah, now it's Minnesota's done right.

Speaker 3 (00:51):
If you don't want a leap frog too much with me,
well that feels over.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
It's what coaching looks like. We've seen this with the
Warriors a couple of time. Remember this Celtics a few
years ago had that where they looked like they had
the Warriors on the map. Yes, crazy watching that game,
it looked like a totally different year and what we
saw a week ago.

Speaker 4 (01:11):
Plus three days off in between games kind of sort
of helped a little bit.

Speaker 1 (01:14):
Yeah, let's start with that. Minnesota this year was a
great defensive team, top of the leak, great defensive team,
and in the first two games in Denver, Nuggets lethargic
were not ready for the physicality and the intensity and
the relentlessness of the Tea Wolves. The underdogs came in,
threw a big punch and knocked Denver down. But then

(01:37):
they got three days off, full days, and they heard
for three days from guys like us, people like us,
how bad they are, they're cooked, they're terrible, and that
stuff you always find out later, you know. Coaches, you know,
they edded up clips and they show the team in
a reel over and over and over. Denver rebooted. They're
the more talented offensive team, much more offensive skill. You know,

(02:00):
between Joker and Gordon and Porter and Murray, all those
guys could drop thirty on any night. They rebooted and
they turned a defensive series into a who's more skilled series,
dusted themselves off, went to the corner, got a little advice,
and the series now looks like a mismatch. It went

(02:20):
from defensive intensity in the first two games to offensive skill,
and outside of Ant, Minnesota really can't match up. They
were not a great offensive team. This year. Ant has
become a great offensive player. Karl Anthony Towns terrible Yesterday's
been hit and missing his career. They always very gifted.
But there was nothing inherently wrong with Denver. When they

(02:42):
were down two, it just looked like they weren't ready
to play and couldn't match up physically the length of
the te Wolves, the aggressiveness. But they had the same coach.
It's not an old roster falling apart. They didn't have
any key injuries. They just weren't quite ready for the series.
And again it shows how value coaching is. You go

(03:03):
back to that Warriors Celtics final. After three games, the
Warriors look cooked, okay, Steve Kerr heart of a champion
fly cross country, a lot of time together, make some tweaks,
and from that point forward, Warriors going to Boston, win
the game, win the series. It totally flipped the series.
So Denver this year oh and ten when they score

(03:27):
under one hundred points, so they just had to figure
out they may not be as good defensively as Minnesota.
They had to get the offense right, they needed several
days off practice, film work. They're all in ten when
they score under one hundred, so they had to get
the offense cooking. And that's most notably the joker who

(03:48):
has been in the last two games unbelievable. Gordon goes
ten for his first ten yesterday. So we knew Minnesota
is the better team in this series defensively, but we
also knew offensively. Denver's got four offensive players, all capable,
all in their prime. It just didn't look like they
were ready for the wrestling match in the first two
games in Denver. So they got up from the mat

(04:10):
and the coach said, sometimes champions get rattled, they never quit.

Speaker 5 (04:17):
I think when we were leaving Denver, a lot of
people I don't think in Denver, but a lot of
people were, you know, understandab be so sand the series
is over and you know to come up here and
even it up on the road. We've played good basketball
and we know that they're going to come out very spirited,
just like Anthony Edwards did tonight. We knew he was
going to do that. Hopefully we can use that momentum

(04:37):
of winning two in a row and to go back
and try to go up.

Speaker 1 (04:41):
Three to two. Really good coaching. We saw it with
Steve Kerr and the Warriors. The defensive team won the
wrestling match for the first two. The last two games
in Minnesota did not even look like the first two
games in the series. The t Wolves, by the way,
equally well coached. So what does it flip back to
now that they moved to Mile High I don't know.

(05:02):
My guess is though throughout the history of the league,
defensive led teams can win a lot of games, but
it's an offensive skill league, and Denver now looks like
they're in control. So the Knicks got pasted first of all,
I mean, they're missing all sorts of players, but there
is something to be said that hustle's important, toughness, intensity,

(05:23):
they really really matter, and the Knicks have a lot
of that. But those minutes add up, and we kept saying,
when's the damn gonna break? Like how long can you
be led by a dominant ball, dominant point guard who's
playing virtually all the minutes? How long can Josh Hart
play with this much heart and produce double his career averages?

(05:47):
Like at some point, when is it end? And that
was yesterday that game was never competitive. So listen, I
don't even think Nick fans think they're a great team.
They're a great story and they have a lot of horror.
But again, you need talent and skill. The Eastern Conference
is bad. This is about as bad as it's ever been.
And then you add on the fact that players like

(06:10):
Dame and Yannis were hurt and they scraped and clawed
their way to a couple of wins. But again, when
your scoring comes, almost all of the key points come
from a ball dominant point guard. I've seen it with
Damon Portland. I've seen it with Westbrook teams. I've seen
it with hardened teams. The Warriors were different with Steph.

(06:30):
It wasn't about Steph being ball dominant. That was never
the issue. It was about ball movement, off ball movement.
That's where Steph's a legend, along with his shooting, and
so the Warriors never got into that ball dominant stuff.
It was always about moving the pieces. Draymond Green could
have the ball, he could be the catalyst. So it

(06:50):
didn't wear down Steph Curry. There were other scorers. There
was Klay Thompson, you know, at one point, there was
Kevin Durant. It wasn't all by the way in the
last year or two. It's become too much about Steph
and the Warriors don't do anything. So Brunson was averaging
thirty five a game in the playoffs, number one usage rate.
You just kept asking how long. It's not being a

(07:12):
hater to say, yeah, this thing doesn't feel like it's sustainable.
That's being realistic. Now. The good news for the Knicks,
they're really good news because this wasn't the case for
the last two decades. They look really well run. They
actually have a culture, like a Miami Heat culture. They
have a Villanova culture. They play hard. They've got to

(07:32):
be very careful when they go to get the next
star that they don't give up too many pieces. Can
you keep Og, You'll keep Brunson, but could you keep
Josh Hart. You're gonna have to give something up to
get another high end player. They'll move off Randall, maybe
Mitchell Robinson. Maybe they'll get different size. But in the end,

(07:52):
they look well run. They've got a culture, and maybe
they beat Indianapolis, maybe they beat the Pacers. But working
really hard matters a lot. You can work as a
comedian all day writing jokes. At some point you have
to get on the stage and be funny. You can
work really, really hard as a basketball team. At some point,
skill and talent takes over. And the Knicks don't have

(08:13):
a ton of it. But they're well run, they've got
a culture, they fight like hell, they're fun to watch,
they're easy to root for, and maybe they win the series,
but they're six and oh when they win the rebounding battle,
and they're owing four when they don't, so that's a
pretty good indication. Resilience, toughness, working hard is sort of
their thing. Jalen Brunson. After an ugly loss.

Speaker 6 (08:35):
I mean, we can talk about fresh legs and we
can give us all the pity that we want. Yeah,
we're short handed, but that doesn't matter right now. Behalf
we we have and we need to go forward with that.
So there is no there is no we're short handed,
There is no excuse. There's no excuse whatsoever. Now we lose,

(08:55):
we lose.

Speaker 1 (08:57):
Also, j Max sent this to me last night. The
NFL over and unders are official, no jamck and these
are my favorite things in the world. I sat there,
I was gonna go to bed last night, and I
sat there and went to sleep. I came out, I
got myself a drink, and I just did over and
under talk to myself for about forty five minutes to
an hour.

Speaker 3 (09:17):
I'm sorry for setting that.

Speaker 1 (09:18):
No, it's absolutely great, So we'll have that before the
end of the hour. Colin Wright Colin wra on top
of next hour, and the NFL did announce their opening game.
Didn't waste any time, Ravens Chiefs opening game of the season.
They're not going to subtly move into it, you know,
hold off in the good games. The NFL is like, yeah,

(09:39):
here's the super Bowl champs or any MVP. You guys,
square off game one, very very much like NFL footballment.

Speaker 3 (09:44):
No, not a bad way to start the season.

Speaker 1 (09:46):
Yeah, did you see where they had the Jets by
the way, you know, they're a little light, a little heavy,
so I don't know about that. I've got three teams
you should strongly consider betting the over, and three teams
bet the younger.

Speaker 4 (10:02):
I have a crazy Jet stat or two from a
Jets fan. I had to run these up the flagpole
and I'm like, oh my gosh, this is real. I'm
not gonna hit them with you this early in the show.
We gotta pace ourselves this week, but I'm starting to
get excited about the jets.

Speaker 3 (10:16):
I'm just wandered to let you know about that.

Speaker 1 (10:19):
All right? Coming up next, would everybody stop freaking out?
Aunt looks a little like Michael Jordan. Let's get over
it and enjoy it. I'll talk about that coming up.

Speaker 2 (10:29):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Herd weekdays
and Noone Eastern nin am Pacific on Fox Sports Radio
FS one and the iHeartRadio App.

Speaker 7 (10:38):
Hey, it's Ben, host of The Fifth Hour with Ben
Maller with me and a lot to have you join
us on our weekly auditory journey. You ask, what in
God's name is the Fifth Hour, I'll tell you it's
a spin off of it. Ben Mather Show, a Colt
hit overnights on FSR. Why should you listen? Picture if
you will a world will? We chat with captains of
industry in media, sports, and more every week explore so

(11:00):
amazing facts about human nature and more. Listen to The
Fifth Hour with Ben Matther on the iHeartRadio app, Apple
Podcast or wherever you get your podcast.

Speaker 1 (11:08):
I do think it's interesting sometimes the media spends so
much time trying to protect people that don't need protecting.
If you're going to be the face of the league
or a star quarterback, you're gonna get criticized. It's not
going to help them. Coddling them. This is why the
NBA has so many of its problems, like load management.
Stop coddling. Coach k is the latest to join on

(11:31):
Aunt Edwards. Let's slow down to the Michael Jordan comparisons.
Nobody's saying he's going to go six for six, but
they do share some qualities and that's okay. The league
would like another mj The fans want it, the TV
networks want it, the sport wants it. Everybody's craving another
Michael Jordan, especially now the league's got in European. The
TV ratings aren't very good. And we got a little

(11:54):
bit of another Jordan. It was called Kobe Bryant that
sort of had the same gait, the way they walked initially,
how they talked to him. It was like Kobe was
imitating him and was about eighty five ninety percent of
Michael Jordan. Brilliant, offensively, aggressive, could talk a little trash, intimidating,
but Aunt similarly, like Michael Jordan, burst onto the scene

(12:18):
after a quick college career and is impossible to stop.
His fast is vertical, but like Jordan in year four,
runs into a much deeper roster the Nuggets, like Jordan
ran into the Celtics and the Pistons, and Michael just
could not get through those rosters until they got the
right coach and the right teammates. And that's probably what

(12:42):
Aunt will deal with as well. Carl Anthony Towns is
probably not the teammate that he holds a trophy with,
but NFL general managers who I've known through the years,
I've asked him a lot of questions about the draft
and one of the things they often demand from their
scouts who's a player's comp? Who does he play like?

(13:03):
They demanded? So this is discussion being held everywhere. There's
no reason to be afraid of it. You know why
Wemby doesn't have a comp and we haven't tried to
force one because there's nobody like him, and Shaq didn't
really have a comp. And Magic, a six eight and
a half point guard, didn't really have a comp. And

(13:25):
Lebron the Swiss Army knife ball handling, passing, scoring, Lebron
didn't really have a comp. He's been compared to MJ
because of his accolades, because of his productivity, because of
his dominance. Their games aren't much alike. In fact, lebron
I would argue plays at times more like Magic than
he does Michael. Nobody's forcing this. We don't have comps

(13:49):
for I don't remember a comp for Tiger Woods or
Bryce Harper or Wayne Gretzky. Some people are unicorns. Tom
Brady was not a unicorn. He was efficient, proto typical size, arm,
not super twitchy. But Kobe and MJ shared a lot
of qualities. It felt like at times Kobe was imitating MJ,

(14:09):
and Ant isn't. But his vertical nature. He's aggressive, he'll
talk trash, he's got a great first step, he can
finish at the rim. He just looks a lot more
athletic than everybody on the floor that's also an NBA player.
And that's okay, that's okay. He's trash talking with Jamal Murray.
And you know, Michael had those with Isaiah and the

(14:32):
Pistons and Larry Bird and the Celtics, And that's what
we loved about Michael, and it's what people kind of
see in Ant, and it's Okay. Andy Reid said when
he was looking for a quarterback, I gotta find my
next Brett Farv. I got to find the next guy
that's a gunslinger, and he got it in Mahomes. Mahomes
didn't need protecting either, just Caitlin Clark or Caleb Williams.

(14:55):
To get to this level and to be this great
You're tough, you're focused, you're defiant, you can handle Twitter.
Here's aunt Anthony.

Speaker 4 (15:06):
Did you you have any words with the Jamal or
any of the Nuggets at the end of the game
there look.

Speaker 8 (15:11):
Like, yeah, yeah, I just told his as that's what
we we love that. Keep keep talking that, that's what
we like. Well, I love it, you know. So you
know he ain't saying nothing back. But I'm pretty sure
you heard me. They heard me, and we live for that.

Speaker 1 (15:24):
You think that guy's gonna fold with m J. Comps.
You want me to run that again. You think that
guy is gonna fold with Comps on talk shows? Now,
I'm gonna I'm gonna take a hard pass on that opinion. J.
Mack with the News.

Speaker 2 (15:44):
This is the Herdline News.

Speaker 3 (15:48):
I just like Anthony Edwards a lot.

Speaker 1 (15:49):
He's very likely and the reason you like him is
that comment?

Speaker 3 (15:52):
Bad dude.

Speaker 1 (15:53):
Again, the media doesn't have a lot of alpha, so
the media is like, hey, that you don't treat young
Peter Caitlin. Park's fine. Ant's fine. These are defiant great athletes.
Maybe you as a blogger couldn't handle these opinions, but
I think Ant loves it. He's like, come on, built
for this, I'm built for this. Did you see when
his team.

Speaker 3 (16:13):
Was down like fifteen, He's like, guys, jump on my back.
I'm carrying us. And he scored like every point fellag
in the second half.

Speaker 1 (16:19):
Yeah, I just believe that nobody needs protection. Nobody's saying
he's gonna go six for six. Nobody's saying that Aunt's
shoe line is going to be so popular that if
he ever wins a title, a college football national champion
will wear his shoe line, right, Like, nobody's saying that.
We're just saying Kobe looked a little like MJ. And
in the end, he got five titles, and AND's got
a lot of the aggressive, vertical, dynamic, trash talking nature

(16:42):
and mid range game. It's like that's a little much.

Speaker 4 (16:44):
That's he clearly studied Jordan's moves or Kobe whichever. When
Kobe studied Jordan, Ye, they look like clones on the court.

Speaker 3 (16:51):
I'm not saying, like you said, he's not gonna win six,
but he li game looks a lot.

Speaker 1 (16:55):
So he spent a lot of time looking at Kobe
and MJ. I would imagine his game illustrate that. So
the comp was inevitable natural and he's probably very comfortable
with So.

Speaker 4 (17:05):
I spent a lot of time watching, you know, guys
shoot threes.

Speaker 3 (17:07):
So I would go outside and shoot threes.

Speaker 1 (17:09):
And you're like Larry Bird minus seven inches, you really are.

Speaker 3 (17:12):
I'm a brown Larry Bird. That's all right. Let's start
with Caleb Williams.

Speaker 4 (17:16):
The Caleb Williams era has officially begun in Chicago. He's
taking part in rookie Minicamp. Caleb will have a lot
of weapons to play with. New Bears OC Shane Waldrick
spoke to how.

Speaker 3 (17:27):
He plans on getting his QB ready for week one.

Speaker 9 (17:30):
I think for me, the things that we're pouring into
right now is just the understanding of the big picture
of the game, right and and all the intricacies and
the nuances that uh, you know, first of all, between
college and the NFL being able to start with that
ground floor approach and build that that uh, that repertoire
of his knowledge up as we're going. And so for

(17:52):
me also being able to lean on on Carrie, Joseph
and the rest of our offensive staff. You know, to me,
this is always a collaborative effort. So it's going to
take all of us to help him along the way.
And everyone has great individual strengths that they can bring
to the table.

Speaker 1 (18:08):
Very exciting. They're over on.

Speaker 3 (18:11):
Look at it. I knew you were going to look at.

Speaker 1 (18:12):
Okay, let's look at the Let's look at the Bears
over under.

Speaker 4 (18:15):
Remember they won seven games last year. People think like
because they had the number one pick, they were a
dumpster fire. So they won seven games.

Speaker 1 (18:21):
I think it's a very respectable eight and a half,
but it's juiced.

Speaker 4 (18:25):
You got to pay to get, you know, a little
bit extra juice to get that eight and a half.
I think this is a nine or ten win team.

Speaker 1 (18:31):
I think that's reasonable. Yeah, I don't think this is
your usual rookie quarterback coming into a beaten down team.
This is a really uniquely gifted rookie quarterback, almost like ant,
you know, uniquely gifted, young, but with really good weapons.
And you know, you know, I don't love the ownership group,

(18:52):
but you know, the GM has proven over the last
year that he knows what he's doing. So it's it's
first time in a long time you watch the Bears
and go, oh, they could get into a they could
get into a fireworks show, you know, a track meet
with the Packers and could compete.

Speaker 4 (19:10):
Yeah, the Vikings are seven win over under total Viking seven,
so Bears eight and a half.

Speaker 3 (19:17):
And listen, I know that's true.

Speaker 1 (19:19):
The Vikings over under six and a half or six
and a half? Yeah, which is you know, it's weird.

Speaker 3 (19:26):
Is that too low for your guy? Sam Darnold, the hero.

Speaker 1 (19:28):
I'll get into my over unders before the end of
the hour. Can't wait. I can't wait.

Speaker 4 (19:32):
Next up, let's go with the Dallas Cowboys again. You know,
I'm not a fan of these owners talking all the time. Well,
Steven Jones just keeps piping up and he's talking about
Ceedee Lamb with the big extension coming up, and he
suggested that the team would like a deal done before
the start of camp, but adds that Lamb probably has
eyes on other players around in the League. Sounds like

(19:54):
Lamb maybe is waiting for Justin Jefferson to get his money.
Lamb has already been at from voluntary offseason activities and
June fourth mandatory sessions begin.

Speaker 3 (20:07):
Probably not going to be a good look.

Speaker 4 (20:08):
If cdee Lamb doesn't show up for mandatory sessions, it
says I don't have my contract yet.

Speaker 3 (20:12):
Sorry, guys, Dallas. A lot of stuff swirling.

Speaker 4 (20:15):
I remember earlier this summer, well this spring, you had
the Eagles falling back.

Speaker 3 (20:21):
I think because of their draft and free agency.

Speaker 4 (20:23):
I'm I'm back on board with the Eagles, some of
the Texans.

Speaker 1 (20:26):
I thought the Texans and Eagles would pull back, and
then they had good free agency, good drafts, and I'm like, nope,
they'll be fine.

Speaker 3 (20:32):
Cowboys of the team.

Speaker 1 (20:34):
A lot of questions about Dallas. I don't worry about
cd Lamb. He'll be fine, but.

Speaker 4 (20:39):
I'm saying if he's unhappy and not showing up, Dak's
going to be there.

Speaker 1 (20:43):
Just like, oh, they already has no running game lost,
Tyron Smith. It's been a long time since the Cowboys
had like a six and eleven season or you know,
bad season.

Speaker 4 (20:55):
You know how Jerry will respond, Hey, Deon Sanders lunch.

Speaker 3 (20:58):
You get out of college football.

Speaker 4 (20:59):
Come on to Dallas, brings you do her with You
will be a quarterback with Dak Dunn. Final story is
a big game tonight in the NBA the MAVs. Okay,
see it's Game four. MAVs won Game two, then went
to home in won Game three in a good game.

Speaker 2 (21:15):
PJ.

Speaker 3 (21:16):
Washington, huge monster, Colin. I saw a static.

Speaker 4 (21:19):
He is the NBA leader in the playoffs in corner
threes made and attempted. That is all Luca and Kyrie
creating for Washington. And I know you love OKAC and
they're a team of the future, number one seed.

Speaker 1 (21:32):
But you notice the usage rate by Luca is plummeting.
Is that Kyrie's taking over, which is what we've said.
You've got to get the ball out of Luca's hands.
You can't otherwise he's James Harden. He's just exhausted. Well, suddenly,
in their last two games they've taken the ball out
of Luca's hands. He could score twenty five any times.
He wants twenty eight with or without the ball in

(21:53):
his hands all game. And they're highly effective and highly
efficient offensively.

Speaker 4 (21:58):
Well, this is scary for see, I saw a stat
that shake Gildess. Alexander had a season high twenty nine
ISOs in Game three. That's, guys, we can't do anything.
Let's just give it to our best player. He had
eleven ISOs in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 3 (22:12):
And he wasn't cooking either.

Speaker 1 (22:13):
Okay, you got to give Jason Kidd credit. So again,
Denver in the first two games of the series was
overmatch physically, and they pivoted to make it more of
an offensive series. They met their physicality. Jason Kidd has tweaked,
He's listened, he looked at usage rates. He's getting the
ball out of Luca's hands, letting Lucas sometimes catch and shoot,

(22:36):
Kyrie taking more controls. Now suddenly the Mavericks are better.
So the advantage to having a seven game series is
that you can be awful on Tuesday and great on Friday.
You go to March Madness, you go to the NFL playoffs.
You are what you are on that afternoon. So what
you do see in these you don't see huge swings.

(22:58):
Generally in a a a March Madness game, you can
kind of feel like who the team is, what do
they do well? But you go to these NBA playoff
series and you see this a lot with the good
coaches and Jason kids done it like we have a
real problem, and they literally stop doing it and you
see massive pivots by coaching staffs. So Dallas, well, why

(23:19):
didn't you like Dallas because I didn't like the old Dallas.
This Dallas, which is we've been waiting for all year.
This is a very effective Dallas. And defensively in game
one they let the three. They were like, we.

Speaker 4 (23:31):
Got a double Shay in the lane and he's just
kicking out the guys for open threes. That hasn't been
there the last two games. So OKC is kind of scrambling.
And I listen, I like Ted Homegren as much as
you do. There's a young kid in a tough playoff
series and PJ.

Speaker 3 (23:45):
Washington pushing him around.

Speaker 1 (23:46):
That's right, and that generally in the playoffs, young bigs
get pushed around. You're talking Homegren came into this league.
He's a fighter, but you're just.

Speaker 3 (23:55):
He's a player.

Speaker 1 (23:55):
We like him.

Speaker 2 (23:56):
He's got upside.

Speaker 4 (23:56):
He's going to be a multi tam all star. I
think obviously, Dallas Woods tonight is over right up three
to one.

Speaker 1 (24:04):
Well, it fits up three to one, then they win
the night.

Speaker 4 (24:06):
They would wait, it's over, okase he's not winning three
straight against.

Speaker 1 (24:10):
Right it's two.

Speaker 4 (24:12):
To one, and if it windn't to night they go
up three to one, that's a rat. Dallas will win
the series if they win. This feels like the series.

Speaker 1 (24:18):
No, yeah, I mean I again, Denver and the Mavericks
pivoted to the right side. What will make them effective
in the series, And so it's just there's these are
chess matches.

Speaker 4 (24:33):
Now the Pacers Knicks less of a chess match because
of the injuries to the Knicks.

Speaker 1 (24:38):
That series is to me a lot about health. If
the Knicks can get healthy by tomorrow, then I have
a shot. But again, this is a team that limited
offensive skill. So you got rantle out O g Mitchell
Robinson like it's and then I don't think Brunson's one
hundred percent. So to me, that's a hell series at

(24:58):
this point. It's not an excuse. It's like the NIXT
we're limited to begin with. Now they're all banged up.
There's only so much you can do.

Speaker 4 (25:05):
The plus for the NBA long series, you can make
adjustments and totally tweak things.

Speaker 3 (25:09):
The drawback is, you know, injuries happen, guys, we're down.

Speaker 1 (25:13):
Especially the way the next play jamack of the news.

Speaker 2 (25:16):
Well that's the news, and thanks for stopping by the
herd Line News.

Speaker 1 (25:21):
So one of the reasons, and I know the media
generally likes to have influence and power and they don't
win the NFL. The NFL basically even calls networks and says,
this is what you're going to pay for our games.
It's not really a negotiation process. Networks would like to
think it is, but the NFL basically tells you here's
the deal, here's what we want, and oh, by the way,

(25:41):
we can change it halfway through the deal. But what
I love about the NFL is their willingness to tweak.
They don't get sentimental or precious. They don't worry about
the past. Like baseball, the best and the biggest is available.
They change, they adapt, They put it up front. So
they name the Ravens and the Chiefs. Their opening game
the Super Bowl Champs against the Ragning MVP. NFL is

(26:05):
so good at the TV game. You know, ESPN tried
something called ESPN Classic and nobody watched. People want now,
people want current, people want urgent. You know, multiple networks,
including here at Fox, have had to go to baseball
numerous times and say you may want to try this,
don't do that. We would do this, create some urgency,

(26:27):
create some special. You never have to play that game.
With the NFL, they get the TV aspect. It is
a television show, so you know it's that they name
that the opening game. They're not waiting for the season
to evolve. It's a big swing, front and center first game,

(26:47):
and I think they're going to have hardball in a
big game to start the weekend. I wouldn't be surprised
if Aaron Rodgers returning faces the Bills a game again.
Remember last year the Aaron Rodgers Bills first Monday night
football game. My guess is they'll bring that back. Hardball
come back. You know, just look at the Chicago and

(27:08):
Caleb Williams. Doesn't it feel like they'll put them on
the first weekend in a big spot, a Sunday night game,
a Monday night game. And that's what the NFL does
think about baseball. Podres Dodgers first game, they played it
in Korea and it started at three am Pacific. The

(27:29):
I think the NFL is going to do that. So
it's just get to the point. Get to the plot.
You know, great movies. You're Christopher Nolan Dark Knight opening scene, right,
isn't that it first thing out the gate, big plot.
Here's the hook, hit it and we go from there.
They'll make me sit around and wait for stuff. Oh well,

(27:50):
hold off the big sites. Just get to the point
in the NFL Ravens chiefs Lamar mahomes LFG And that's
the way to do it. Don't make me wait around
to episode six of Netflix to get to the plot.
Colin Wright, Colin Wrong, top of next hour. Okay, we'll
get to the over unders. You know, you can bet

(28:13):
week to week, but over unders is a little like
fantasy sports. You gotta wait till the end. Some of
these I do not even understand. And I will have
a basic theme with my over unders, and I'll tell
you the theme when I'm done with it. See if
you can spot it. But some of these jamak, I've
already spent the money, I've already bought jet skis. Some

(28:33):
of these it's like easy picking over unders. How many
games will your team win? Casinos have come out, The
people in the desert have come out and laid down
the numbers.

Speaker 2 (28:45):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Herd weekdays
and noone Easter not a im Pacific Sir.

Speaker 4 (28:50):
Kennel Cluff Dog Show continues tonight at seventy stern on
FS one with breed and group judging. Then tomorrow at
seven it's Best in Show Kick's All coming away on
FS one.

Speaker 1 (29:02):
My dogs love this, They'll sit in the couch watch it.
Put it on. It's like NBA playoff action for my dogs.
I absolutely love it. So the over unders in the
totals the future bets. So they come out and they say,
here's the number, will your team win more or less? Now,

(29:23):
on average, fans tend to bet the overs. Those are
called sucker bets. Generally you're a little better off doing
the under. Everybody's real optimistic. And I mean, it's so
hard to even get to eleven wins in the NFL
and go eleven and six. That's hard for Baltimore in
San Francisco. I mean, just to give you a sense,
Kansas City, Baltimore, and San Francisco have the highest at

(29:47):
eleven and a half. And I think outside of Baltimore,
i'd bet the under on Kansas City and San Francisco.
You know how hard it is to go twelve and
five in this league. You have injuries, you have tough
road stretches. Everybody seemingly goes to a backup quarterback for
a couple of weeks. But there were six that jumped
out to me. Six that didn't make a ton of sense.

(30:09):
And I'm not saying they're gonna go way over, But
if I'm laying my cash, it's over under here we go,
So Green Bay, I would take the over nine and
a half. This is almost like that's the number nine
and a half. That's almost like a hedge against Jordan Love.
They bring back an offensive coach who's excellent, Jordan Love

(30:30):
at the end of last year, clearly a notch better
than Dak who people like. They return every tight end
and receiver of note. They'll be better defensively under Boston
College head coach Jeff Haffley, and they bring in Josh Jacobs,
so they're young, they're dynamic. The NFC's the weaker conference.

(30:52):
Jordan Love looked fantastic. This feels like to me, a
hedge against Jordan Love. And I know the divisions. It's
not that much better. Green Bay is still probably better
than Chicago and much better than Minnesota. Take the over
on the Packers nine and a half. I would take
the under on Dallas ten and a half. I can't

(31:16):
see the Cowboys winning eleven or twelve games. They're due
for some regression. They've won twelve plus games in each
of the last three seasons. Now, they don't have Tyron Smith,
they don't have much of a run game. They're very
seed lamb dependent. They weren't active in free agency, and
I think the Eagles and Commanders will be better football teams.
The other thing is dak is eight and eighteen in

(31:40):
his career eight and eighteen when he has to throw
the ball forty or more times. Well, if you don't
have a run game and the division's better, you're going
to be playing from behind on occasion. I think Dallas
under ten and a half is one of my favorite bets. Rams.
I did it last year in one. I'll do it
again eight and a half. If it's a quarterback coach

(32:03):
weapons league, the Rams are a at all of them.
I don't get it. They won last year ten games
with the second youngest roster in the league, and I
don't think Seattle is necessarily better. I think they match
up well right now with the Niners. They address their
defensive needs. Listen, Aaron Donald was really good, but they

(32:24):
the last two drafts have addressed it very well. They
had the most all rookie selections and did not have
a first round pick last year. It's a really good
scouting and drafting organization. They find gems everywhere. Eight and
a half. I think they have a chance to end
up in the NFC Championship. That seems criminally low Jets.

(32:48):
I'd go under nine and a half. Their offensive line
is either rookies or old guys. How many offensive linemen
do they have in their prime that are excellent? One
and he's always hurt, Elijah Vera Tucker. They're very dependent
on one excellent running back. Sala Is a defensive coach.
Aaron is a pretty prickly old quarterback with maybe maybe

(33:15):
one great year left. I think he's absolutely past his prime.
Sala's eighteen and thirty three. Again, tell me the offensive
lineman who are in their prime and elite. He's a
forty year old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury. I
would take the Vikings, maybe not by much. But over

(33:36):
six and a half, I mean, they won't. Didn'ty win
seven games last year with four quarterbacks. I mean, I know,
I know the division's better, but justin Jefferson his back
and he missed seven games last year, there's I don't
think there's a team in the league that's better. If
you combine coach, tight end, two weapons, left tackle, running back, stacked,

(34:01):
and again a weaker conference justin Jefferson's back. They won
seven plus games in the last two years, and again
last year did it with four quarterbacks. You don't even
have to love Sam Darnold. You don't even have to
like him if he's upright. They can't go seven and
ten with an excellent young coach that seems bizarrely low.

(34:24):
And finally, Saints, I would take under seven and a
half older quarterback defensive coach Dennis Allen's never proven he
can win big games. The division's absolutely better, Atlanta's absolutely better,
Tampa's better. Carolina should have a pulse. I think they
finished fourth. They're an aging roster on both sides of

(34:45):
the ball. They didn't do much in free agency like
the Cowboys because they're up against the cap. So if
you look at these six teams, what do you see?
My overs are young quarterbacks with offensive head coaches mostly

(35:06):
young quarterbacks. Matt Stafford's is just great. My unders are
older quarterbacks with like defensive head coaches except the Cowboys.
So again, Jet Saints are really really sells for me,
I think Dallas will win about nine Packers Ram Vikings. Again,

(35:26):
this is a trend offensive coaches, Packers, Rams Vikings. I
like the over. Two of the three unders are defensive coaches.
So there you go, Jmack, you can push back. I
will say this on the Packers. The Packers line is
so weird to me that again, did everybody watch them

(35:47):
go to Dallas and house the Cowboys and then, frankly,
as the youngest playoff team since the Bills of nineteen
seventy go to San Francisco and go toe to toe
of them with all these Hall of Fame level players.
So the Green Bay number, I thought it would be tenant.
I thought there was a chance they'd be in the
ten and a half eleven space. That seems weird to me.

Speaker 4 (36:09):
Are you reading too much into that one? Over Dallas
high profile game, massive rating? It was a big spot
for Dallas. They won the game, for a.

Speaker 1 (36:18):
Bunch of young kids to go on the road to Dallas,
for the biggest team Packers Cowboys, huge TV audience, and
for the on the road, and for those young players
to be that ready for the moment. I don't know,
maybe I'm overvalueing that to your point, that performance, but
nine and a half. Ever see, we talked about this

(36:41):
last week. You'll see a line and you're like, what,
don't I know? What am I what am I not seeing?
I don't get it. So you can argue with me
on all of them, but that one I don't get.

Speaker 4 (36:51):
Listen you, I think last week you used the phrase
dying on a hill. It feels like you've got several
hills here, Jets. You're anti Jets, like it, you're out
on Rogers.

Speaker 2 (37:01):
I get it, Okay, Damn.

Speaker 3 (37:03):
I wanted to save some of this stuff.

Speaker 1 (37:04):
Colin.

Speaker 4 (37:05):
So a buddy of mine is a big Jets guy,
big gambler, and he started to look at it. You know,
the Jets scored twenty offensive touchdowns last season. That's it
least in the league. The Jets played with the lead
of seven or more points for sixty eight snaps last season.
That's how bad their quarterback situation was. And now you're
thinking about Aaron Rodgers Breise Hall, who, by the way,

(37:26):
his number, his odds are plummeting in terms of like
offensive player of the year. He was second to McCaffrey
and scrimmage yards in the NFL preeste Hall with no
line and no quarterback. And then you add Mike Williams,
and then you add Morgan Moses to the line and
Tyron Smith. I know they're not in their prime, but
the arrow should be pointing up on the Jets. If
Rogers can stay healthy for the full season or fifteen games,

(37:47):
you're gonna be way, way wrong on these guys. Remember
now you're talking about a defense. Maybe playing with the
lead was an actual lead, something they didn't see last year.
And they can tee off the way the Niners, remember
the Sala's Niners when they got the lead. The defensive
end just pin their ears back and it's a jail break.

Speaker 1 (38:04):
And do you believe losing teams matts Jets? Losing teams,
they bail very quickly, right like if things go sideways,
Oh boy, here it comes. The Jets have been eight
straight losing seasons. That's the longest in the league. So
to break that culture, you need a wildly transcendent player,

(38:30):
a culture changer. Aaron's not in his prime. Aaron's good,
he's no longer great, he's good. His last year in
Green Bay, he's good. Jordan Love looks better. So when
you have an eight year stretch of losing, it's like
the Clippers. The minute something goes wrong, everybody in the
building's like, okay, the sky is falling. It's the opposite

(38:53):
in Kansas City, where they couldn't get their offense together
for two months. But there's an optimism in Kansas City's
building or the New England building when they'd have a
bad September. Oh, we'll get this right, because they do
get it right. The Jets are the opposite. The minute
they have a two game skid, hammered in Buffalo and
then get an injury and hammered in Miami, all of

(39:13):
a sudden, here we go again. And so to me,
to break through that the Houston Texans, you have to
get a brilliant coach and a brilliant quarterback and kind
of shock the world. You can't just go, hey, we're
bringing the old quarterback back. Eight straight losing seasons it's
not like Aaron's an uplifting sort of figure in a

(39:34):
room with young players, like that's not his thing.

Speaker 4 (39:37):
Potentially, he did say to the new young guy that
they drafted their want to be Deebo Samuel, Hey, you
can room with me, you know this summer we can
get together, get on the same page.

Speaker 3 (39:46):
I don't know. I sent you the Rams opponents.

Speaker 4 (39:48):
Obviously we'll be able to contextualize all of this Thursday,
after the schedule comes out. That will be the big Like,
I'm sure one or two of these will drop off
once you see the schedule because we know the opponents,
we just don't know the order. And that's huge, especially
for like a Chicago you know.

Speaker 1 (40:04):
Yeah, well, I mean you know, when I look at
schedule for the Miami Dolphins, do I get to play
Buffalo in Buffalo in September or December? Do I get
to play the Jets or Miami in bad weather? Like
is an issue? So the schedule I look at is
when does TUA get to go north? If it's early,
then I like Miami. If it's late, I'm gonna sell

(40:26):
on Miami, all right, our number two Colin right, Colin wrong?
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