The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 2

Can the Cowboys roll the Saints at home? Is Burrow healthy enough to shock Kansas City? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their favorite bets across the NF slate. Together they give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and so much more. 

Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume  #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I am live from the Tommy John studio here in
my hotel room in Oxford, Mississippi. We'll get to that,

(00:30):
and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
my compadre, my BFF professional better Sigmon Hunter. Hello, Simon,
Hello Chad.

Speaker 2 (00:39):
How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:41):
Brother? I'm gonna tell you a quick story.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
I'm in Oxford.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
I'm in Oxford because a good buddy of mine. His
name is right Thompson, brilliant writer who's been at ESPN
for a long time, has written some of the most
legendary stories for ESPN, from the Johnny Manzel story to
the Tiger Wood story to the Michael Jordan's story. We
once together came up with an idea that he would
do an entire issue of ESPN the magazine about how

(01:07):
sports helped New Orleans heal after Katrina. The ten years
after Katrina, He's got a big book coming out called
The Barn. It's not about sports, It's about Emmett til
the murder of Emmettil here in Mississippi and where Wright
is from. So a bunch of us flew down in
Mississippi to surprise him for a boat like a mini

(01:27):
book party. Right, And we were hanging out at Writes
last night. And if you are someone who likes long
form storytelling and magazine writing, going back to the GQ
Esquire days for an audience that today is ever shrinking,
but back then, like it was, you know what you

(01:47):
wanted to be and do with your life, which I
was lucky enough to get to do in different ways
as an editor. It was a great night. A bunch
of us were hanging out at Rights, telling old stories whatever.
But this is a group that goes pretty hard. And
it was late at night when I got back to
my hotel. And as you know, I'm basically blind. When

(02:11):
I take out my contacts, cannot see a thing. Get
to my hotel last night, all the lights are on.
And when you get into a hotel, like the night
stand lights are on, and they have different switches, and
overhead lights have different switches, and hallway lights have switches,
and bathrooms have switches. I took out my contacts before
I had turned off any of the lights, and I
find the switches for everything except one overhead light. The

(02:34):
overhead light. Cannot find the switch. I'm looking around, I'd
have to feel the walls because I'm totally blind at
this point. Cannot find them. I'm hitting every switch. It's
just the same hallway bathroom for your lights that keep
coming on and off. I'm like, I don't know what
to do. I called the front desk. It's not at
a time at night where like there's multiple people on

(02:56):
the front desk. It's late night, early morning. I called
the front desk. I'm like, I got a strange question.
I promise you I'm gonna remember this in the morning. Like,
I'm not crazy. I cannot find the light switch for
my room. Do you have any idea where they keep
the light switch for the overhead lights in these rooms?

(03:19):
He's like, you mean, like, do I have a map
of the electrical of the room. I'm like, I know,
it's not ideal. And then I realized he may have
thought I was trying to get him up to my
room at one o'clock in the morning in the middle
of Oxford, Mississippi, and like my creative way of doing

(03:41):
it was saying I can't find my light switch. So
I said, you know what, I'll figure it out. I
hung up the phone, and then I said to myself,
I'm gonna have to sleep with the light on all night.
You're just gonna have to do it. You can't find
the light switch. And then I gave myself a new
Rockney speech and I said, nope, I can find this

(04:03):
light switch. So once again I felt around every single wall.
I hit all the same light switches. I finally found
the light switch right next to the thurmishstaff for the room.
It looked exactly like the thurmomstaff, so it wasn't entirely
on me. I think it's bad design, but I did
find the light switch, and I did get to go
to sleep.

Speaker 2 (04:23):
Now I'm with you about the hotel lights. I've been
in hotels where are no switches, right, They just assume
you touch the lamps and the lamps go off. Now
it's yes, that new technology really threw me for a
loop because I did the same thing. I had to
call it down an ass.

Speaker 1 (04:34):
But oh my god, so it's not just me.

Speaker 2 (04:37):
I was waiting for you to say that you hit
enough switches that also in your bed started spinning in circles,
and it was just like love room.

Speaker 1 (04:42):
But my bed did me to switch to start spinning.
I can tell you that right now. All right, listen,
let's get into it.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
Brother.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
We got to talk about today is our NFL Week
two Best Bets episode where Simon and I narrowed down
our five picks in the Favorite podcast one hundred thousand
dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented by Bet three
six five. Sign up now at Favorites dot Action network
dot com. We will also get to our foxhol and
Tommy John Big Balls Better of the Week, our survivor

(05:09):
Simon's Biggest Bets, our boosted money line Underdog parlay plus
by popular demand. We didn't do the round robin money
line Underdog probably last week. We will do it again
this week. Have no fear bets to rolling in lines
removing decisions need to be made. As our old friend
and Volume podcast boss Colin Coward likes to say, there's

(05:30):
a sea of money out.

Speaker 2 (05:30):
There, because there's a sea of money out there.

Speaker 1 (05:33):
As a reminder, Favorites pot is presented by bet three
sixty five and this just in new Bet three sixty
five customers now get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
When you bet five dollars sign up using promo code,
favorites deposit ten dollars in place a bet for five
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(05:53):
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(06:15):
dollars Pro Football Pick Them contests presented by Bet three
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got time. We drop everyone's worst score after week five
one hundred k and cash prize is still for grabs.
Sign up favorites that Actionnetwork dot Com. As always Simon
on Thursdays during the season, we like to hear how
the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's

(06:39):
how inside we are. Lines move based in our conversations.
The pros feel compelled to weigh in on on our opinions.
And we got a lot of calls this week, Simon,
let's do it shop.

Speaker 2 (06:53):
Calls, Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain.

Speaker 3 (07:00):
Range, telephone range, somebody saying maybe yeah.

Speaker 2 (07:07):
I would say the pros are feeling really good head
end of this week chat. They think that the public
is doing exactly what they do every year. Right, they're
overreacting to the previous week, and you're getting a lot
of value on these lines. And we've seen just since
our Tuesday show a lot of movement. Right. So let's
start off with the game we loved Denver. We knew
that that was a good spot. We knew the pros
would like it. That number was going up to three

(07:28):
and a half. Now it's down to two and a half.
Almost every book, right, Chad, So no shock or there.
Cincinnati Bengals, the line we loved six six and a half,
it's down to five five and a half. A lot
of books. Another position that the pros are feeling the
same way we do. Right, It's a little bit of
an overreaction. We're all worried about Joe Burrow's risks, right.
I don't think anyone's overlooking that spot. It just it
feels like they weren't as bad as people perceived their

(07:49):
previous week. Now this line's moved too much. I'm shocked
that this is dipped down to five, just because what
we talked about, right, Chad, this is gonna be the
most teased game of the week, right, Oh yeah, everyone's
teasing this. So pretty shocking that numbers come down so much.
Let's keep it going to a game we didn't really
talk about. I like the forty nine ers. Every probably
talk to. They like Minnesota once again, So they liked

(08:10):
them last week against the Giants, they like them again
against the forty nine ers team. It's pretty simple, right,
forty nine ers historically have struggled in Minnesota. It's a
short week, they're on the road to forty nine ers,
so I get it. I just think they're overlooking that.
You know, this is one of the best defenses in
football and the best run blockings teams in football, playing
against a team that they overachieved, right against that Giants team,

(08:30):
they only really scored twenty one points on offense. Like,
I just think people are going a little too crazy
with the sam Donal love.

Speaker 1 (08:36):
Oh yeah, we're going deep into that game. I think
I'm with you like I'm in love with the forty
nine ers right now.

Speaker 2 (08:41):
Another favorite though, that the pros love Chad that we
talked a little bit about. We were little unsure of
the number. Detroit try. I mean, I've seen this now
get up to a couple of books in minus eight.
It's gone down back to minus seven and a half.
The Pros are not scared about taking that seven and
a half. They love detroiting this spot against a banged

(09:01):
up Bucks team that I think people are a little
overrating them a little bit right because they just played
the worst defensive football. Happy for Baker get his flowers
for a week. We assume he comes crashing down to
earth here. That's what the professions are looking at. We'll
keep it really quick here. Panthers, pros love Panthers. No
one wants to fucking hear it. I get it. We'll

(09:30):
keep it moving off that one. Me and you talk
about the Raiders right that number touch ten, it's back
down to eight and a half. I'm probably just because
I read my Man Evans article. We're probably end up
putting them our survival pool, just because the Ravens historically
they don't lose in the spot. And the number tells
another story of these teams tend to bounce back at
home as big favorites, just winning out right, right, we're

(09:52):
not talking about spread. So pretty interesting. The pros have
coming so heavy. It's back down to eight and a half, which,
again we talk all the time. That's a key tease
number now, right, So the books you're letting people tease
down at two and a half. That's a big deal.
So pretty interesting that numbers move so much. Last one again,
me and you love and I think I might end
up as one of our five. The professionals love green

(10:13):
Bay here, Chad, they are loving green Bay. That number
was up to three and a half. It is down
to two and a half in most books at this point.
So it could be because Lafleur left the door open
for Jordan Love coming back. I think that's a smoke screen.
I think we're really betting this on the floor. This
team is a dog against and then consistent Anthony Richardson right,
like it kind of feels like I stolen last week.

(10:34):
I do feel more comfortable taking Green Bay here. So
pretty shocking now the pros have coming so heavy that
despite all the public money coming in on this Colts team,
it has gone from three and a half down to
two and a half Chad acrossing two key numbers.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
That's uh, We're gonna have to get into it, There's
no doubt about it. I will say one thing about
the Panthers. You know how much I love Stucky and
Raybon on the Action Network podcast and their Sunday six
pack that they do that it's live on YouTube Wednesday nights.
That's part of the podcast that comes out Thursdays. Stuck.

(11:07):
He put the Panthers and he did he put him in,
He put him in their six pack. We're not going
to do that, I can promise you right now. A
couple couple of things to keep in mind, because there
are certain trends that I don't want to repeat every
single time, but they are applicable to a lot of
the games we're going to talk about in weeks one
and two. One to five and a half point underdogs

(11:30):
seventy seven, forty four and three, sixty four percent since
twenty eighteen. You know, it's four and eight in week one,
so should we expect a regression. Probably, there's usually overreaction.
It's over reaction week favorites of one to three and
a half again, forty three percent in September the past

(11:51):
twenty years in the first three weeks forty two percent
since two thousand and fourteen, flip side eight and four
and week one. So we're definitely going to have some
conversation here about the opportunities. Another opportunity to buy low
this week. Over the past twenty years, when two winless

(12:13):
teams meet, the underdog is sixty six percent against the spread.
In week two, it's sixty eight percent. If two teams
are a winless it almost always makes sense to take
the points. This week, it's a couple of teams we
talked about, the Giants, the Packers, the Browns, the Raiders,

(12:35):
and the Titans, which we talked about the other day.
All right, here we go. First game up, We're gonna
talk about a favorite. I love it, you love it.
I think it's going to be in our five Dallas
Cowboys six and a half over the Saints.

Speaker 3 (12:50):
Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky in the heart
of the lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary
football players. They are the Dallas Cowboys.

Speaker 1 (13:03):
We loved it on Sunday at six. We both bet it.
It's moved six and a half almost immediately. I've been
thinking a lot about this game, especially Dak. Dak is
a favorite of six or more, thirty one thirteen and
one against the spread eighteen and nine. Think about that,
thirty one thirteen and one against the spread. That's seventy

(13:24):
one percent eighteen and nine since twenty twenty one. It's
his spot. And like Dennis Allen, he is, as we know, terrible.
He's been an underdog of a field goal or more
thirty three times in his career, pulled the upset just
five times. That's like Scott Lenahan and Rod Marinelli. That's

(13:46):
who his company is. So book it give it to me,
don't care Dallas six, six and a half in the contest.
We want a favorite, this is one of them.

Speaker 2 (13:57):
Yeah right there with you, Chad. I love Dallas and
you know, some professionals coming on the Saints, and I
think the reasoning this sound of just you know, this
team got off to a hot start. Who's to say
they can't carry this over and they have a new
identity coming this season, right, Derek Carr, he's learned a
new offense. Maybe he's flourishing in this new offense. My
rebuttal is what I think me and you were both thinking, Chad,
that was just Carolina, right. They just caught a really

(14:20):
bad team there in Week one that was on underprepared
and they showed out. I can't say the same for
this Dallas team. They're prepared and even reading through Evans article,
I mean McCarthy is incredible in Week two, like apparently
he's really good at getting his teams up for these
early games. So I like the matchup here, and I
do think Dallas didn't play that great of a game
against the Browns, right. I think there was a lot

(14:42):
they could work on this upcoming week for them to
grow and get better. And I can't say the same
for the Saints, Like you know, they're just gonna be
feeling themselves all week. They're just not a team used
to hanging fifty points, right, Chad. So this is such
a typical letdown spot especially we'll even talk about it.

Speaker 4 (14:57):
Man.

Speaker 2 (14:58):
They got real serious flooding going right now. New Orleans.
Me and you always talk about this. It's hard to
think these players' minds won't be in other places, right,
So that's another added thing to this. And then just
on the field stuff. I like the matchup right, there's
a bunch of stuff offensively this Dallas team could do
to attack the Saints defense, and then we flipped the
defensive side. The Saints offensive line is better than I

(15:19):
gave them credit for a head end of the season,
like at a couple unknown guys. I still think on
the outside their tackle positions that I mean, the Cowboys
should be able to feast. So Derek Carr, we know
how he struggles when he's got guys around his feet.
He does not like to have push on the outside.
So yeah, Jeff, this is gonna be our one favorite.
Maybe we'll get a second favorite in there. I definitely

(15:40):
want it to be Dallas this week. I just love
Dallas in the spot. Historically we played dak As these
big favorites at home. It's been good to us.

Speaker 3 (15:48):
They are the Dallas Cowboys, a free wheeling All American
Star kiss team.

Speaker 1 (15:55):
We just talked about the Raiders and the Ravens. A
lot of trends to back there. It's moved down. It
was nine and a half on Monday. On Tuesday when
we did the show, like you said, it got up
to ten. Now it's back down to eight and a half.
Money from the Wives guys clearly coming in on the Raiders.
I don't want to play the Raiders. We're betting the number,

(16:15):
not what we've seen on the team, and I have
no faith in this team right now, especially in a
bounced back spot for the Ravens who are going to
be at home, perfect spot for Lamar. Just feels like
we're walking into a trap there.

Speaker 2 (16:29):
And you're not wrong. I think the public has your sentiment, right.
I think it's only about ten percent of the money
and I don't know, less than twenty percent of the
bets right now are on this Raiders team, and for
good reason, right the coach let them down. They punted
to they took a field goal at fourth and one,
and they punted on fourth and one and the Chargers territory.
I just think people are a little hesitant now with
this team. They're a little unsure. So that's fine, just

(16:51):
because I think this is going to be our survivor pick.
So it's like, you know, I'm happy went onto them
my ten ticket, my nine and a half ticket. If
we don't, if this is one ugly dog we're not
forcing in, there's a couple other ugly dogs. You are
about the forced anyway, So I get your hesitation, But yeah,
I do like the raid your side in this one.

Speaker 1 (17:07):
Yeah, we have so many ugly dogs that we are
going to ask people to bet. Just because we're not
asking people to bet the Panthers doesn't mean we're not
going to ask of people to do horrible, disgusting things.
One of those horrible disgusting things. New York Jets currently

(17:28):
three and a half point favorites at the Tennessee Titans.
We talked about the Jets the other day. This is
an incredible bounce back spot for Aaron Rodgers. There are
a lot of reasons to love Aaron Rodgers. Here. After
a straight up loss, he's sixty three percent against the spread.

(17:48):
When it's like a bounce back game happens for Rogers.
In week two or three, he's six one and one
against the spread. But non Rogers trends and this is
going to come up a couple of times with games
that we like the underdog. Forget about all the other
trends that I mentioned at the top, which the Titans fit.

(18:10):
Teams with fewer than twenty five minutes of possession in
a week are six in Week one are six and
twenty five against the spread in Week two. That's nineteen percent.
One of those teams, the New York Jets. The Titans
did not allow an offensive touchdown. The Jets defense was

(18:32):
on the field for a million plays getting schewed up
by the Niners, and has a short week. Teams that
open at plus four or higher at home weeks one
and two sixty percent against the spread the last twenty years.
Teams that open plus four are higher at home after
losing game one against the spread sixty four percent since

(18:55):
twenty twenty. I'm saying, do we bet the Titans here?

Speaker 2 (19:04):
Now? I wouldn't put them as one of our five.
I just I can't get there this Titans team. I
just have to make questions about the coaching and Will Levis.
So everything you just said still true. If you want
to fade Rogers, I don't hate it, which I just
pretty much broke it down for you. Why you should
right their defense? How can they recover in six days
on a road game when they just played that many
snaps on defense, and on the flip side, they have

(19:27):
a lot of stuff to work out offensively, right, they
don't really have an identity. But I still think we're
getting a good number here, just because the Jets just
played with maybe the best team in the NFC. Like,
it's just I don't know. I'm still I'm still drinking
the Jets kool aid, and I'm still kind of off
this Tennessee team. So everything you said there, like everything.
My body wants me to take Tennessee. But my numbers

(19:50):
say there should be minus four. It's now minus three
and a half. Technically, I like the Jets, but I'm
with you. I don't want to put this game, and
I just I don't only betting Rodgers in you know,
their offense, even watch going back watching be watching that
four nine Ers game. You know, I don't know if
a Rogers calling the offense or who's calling their offense,
but the fact that they their mentality was we're gonna

(20:13):
spread out this forty Niners defense and we're gonna wear
them out, running the ball from left to right right.
They try to get the ball on the outside, try
to get those you know, interior linemen tired, the linebackers tired,
and every time it was like, Okay, now it's third
and eight. So it's like, you run it first down,
you run it second down. Now it's third and eight,
and it's I just didn't like how they didn't adjust
off that where it's just eventually they figured out, oh,

(20:35):
we should just be having rodgers drop back and pass
the ball the whole time, Like there are holes in
this defense, none of which are running lanes. So I
totally with you on the hesitation of this Jets team
and the sharp side, the professional side probably is Tennessee
or but I still think it's a good number on
this Jets team.

Speaker 1 (20:51):
You're betting the Jets, I bet them.

Speaker 2 (20:53):
I took him my minus three and a half. Once
I got to three and a half, I was like,
all right, I'll take this number here. But obviously after
reading Evans article, I didn't feel great about it. Right,
all those trends point to take a Tennessee here. But yeah,
I'm I like the Jets at that number.

Speaker 1 (21:08):
All right, Well, we'll find out later in the show
if it's one of your biggest bets. No for the
week you just mentioned San Francisco, San Francisco, this number
has moved, yeah, down from six to five and a half.
I think we're both a little bit surprised by that
because we love the Niners in this spot. I know
there are going to be trends now that it's in

(21:28):
that five and a half range that compel you to
bet Minnesota. The professional betters have moved this down. You know,
I want to get your opinion, but I do think
there's some data to beck betting Shanahan specifically in this
spot that for me, overrides some of the other stuff
that is just more broad about underdogs in this spot.

(21:51):
But give me your thoughts.

Speaker 2 (21:52):
Yeah, Historically Shannon does well against teams you lost to
in the previous meeting, and this would classify as one
of those spots. Right, So, I don't feel remember the
last time they played, it was one of the most
bizarre games ever, right, I think Perdy got can cussed.
It was just a lot going on in that game.
We're here. I mean, this forty nine Ers team just
feels like they're humming. And even that Jets game, we

(22:12):
even going back watching it, they didn't play that clean,
like they actually weren't that good as people think they were.
That's how dominant this team is. I mean they go
how many field goal as they kicked? Right, normally those
are sevens not threes like That's that was probably the
most shocking part to me. And it was just not
in rhythm right. Ayuk had a couple of really bad
drops and just different things like that where the Foreign
Iris team feels like we didn't really see their best shot.

(22:34):
Just that's how dominant this team is. And we didn't
even talk about their new DC. I thought he did
really well in his first game against the Jets, and
it's like even here, I like a lot of the
matchups that they have on the Foreign Iris team against
this Vikings team. So I can tell you, Chad though,
from the professional side, they do think that this is
a big deal, right that it's a short week, they're

(22:55):
traveling to Minnesota against a team that the public does
undervalue that profestionals coming to the season did value, right.
They liked this Viking seam coming to the season. So
it's definitely a team that I think me and you
both are down on. I still am down on, and
I think that people overreacting to what happened last week
against the Giants. Right when you really break it down,
we saw one good half from Sam Donald and they

(23:16):
put up what twenty one points against the Giants defense,
which we all think is not gonna be that good
of a defense. So it's just like, okay, I'm not
going to react to that. I still think the forty
nine ers, even without McCaffrey, we still have them putting
up thirty one to twenty eight points here, and I
don't really see how, you know, Sam Donald in this
defense puts up more than twenty five twenty six points.

(23:39):
Like for them to get three touchdowns or two touchdowns
in a field goal, that would be a really good
day for this Vikings offense against this Foreign Aris defense.
So I think we're getting really good value. Chef. I
make this number seven, the fact that it's down to
five and a half, crossing that key number of six.

Speaker 1 (23:53):
We love the Niners almost all the time. We love Shanahan.
A couple of things to think about with up.

Speaker 2 (24:00):
To them, because like even this, if they blow them out,
you know the number is going to keep getting exponentially
crazier as the week's going.

Speaker 1 (24:06):
I mean, look, it's like same as Patrick Mahomes right,
like Mahomes as a big favorite doesn't have a great
record against the spread, but that's because the number is
always so big, because Patrick Mahomes is so special. So
to me, Shanahan, we've talked about this a lot, one
of the most special coaches in the NFL.

Speaker 2 (24:23):
Because it does make me a little weirried. Where like
this is definitely like the Giants last week, where we're
on heavily on the public side, where the public a
going against the pros here.

Speaker 1 (24:31):
Don't care, don't care. You know what, It's time for
time for our big balls. Better the Week presented by
Tommy John. I was a little muted on that one
because I'm in the hotel. I don't want to freak
people out. We are going with the Green Bay Packers. Wow,

(24:55):
green Bay Packers. I think this is what Matt Mitchell
called when we started talking bet it on Tuesday podcast malpractice.
But look and like the numbers down to two and
a half, so we obviously don't have the best of
the number. It's at bet three six five to two
and a half. There are all the other places that
it's at.

Speaker 2 (25:11):
Three, So there's a couple three is left right now.

Speaker 1 (25:13):
It was at three and a half when we talked
about it on Tuesday. The wise guys have come after it.
They betted the three, they bet at the two and
a half. I think a lot of people are thinking
a couple of things, and we'll get to some of
the trends, but overall, too much of a swing in
the point spread from Jordan Love to Malik Willis and
so there's some buyback from the wise guy point of view.

(25:36):
But what's your take here?

Speaker 2 (25:38):
Honestly, it feels like it was the right amount. I
see it's come down a little bit here because of
the spot. We're excited about the Colts and what they
can be and the you know what they're going to
be this upcoming season. But Green Bay, you know, they're
reviewed as one of the better teams in all football,
and you know, just because they lost Jordan Love, we
expect will Floor to kind of figure this out on
the fly, right. I mean, their run blocking was incredible

(25:59):
against the Eagles. I think that will be able to
translate against this Colts team that just gave up, you know,
over one hundred and fifty yards to Houston running right.
So there's a couple of things alike here. But I
think you're right right, the pros they've kind of dug
in here because of Lafour leaving the door open for
love maybe played in this game, right, That to me
is what the movement is. So me and Chad are

(26:20):
taking this on the show at two and a half.
You can grab it if you want, right because there
are like we just said, we're sponsor here, so we're
giving out that two and a half. There's threes out there.
I'd grab that just just in case on Sunday. If
it's guaranteed that loves out it is, Malik. I think
you agree, right Chad. The public money will come in
very heavy on this Colds team, so we could get
back that three and a half. The movement here, though,

(26:44):
is is warranted. It's like that was way too much,
like Chad just said, And you know, Green Bay they're
gonna be just as desperate as this Colts team, right,
Like no one wants to start owing too. That's why
I love these kind of spots. But they're gonna be
desperate at home with a Nobody leaves this mentality and
you know, open up the action app here. Let's I mean,
I can't even imagine this number is going to be. Yeah,

(27:05):
right now, it's only nineteen percent of the money and
about twenty five percent of the bets right now is
on this Green Bay team. And it's gone from Chad
just said, from three and a half down to two
and a half. So it's at two at a book
I'm seeing here. But that's that's pretty crazy that much
professional money's coming here. So we know we're not getting
the best number giving out two and a half, but

(27:25):
we talk all the time. Two and a half has
become such a key number. I feel comfortable taking this
making it our big Balls better of the week.

Speaker 1 (27:31):
Look, we had two and a half. We had two
and a half with the Colts last week. Yeah, that
was fun and it worked out just swell, it didn't.
It wasn't a sweat in any way at all. It
is our big Balls bet of the Week, presented by
Tommy John. Like you know, Simon, there's no bigger fan

(27:52):
of Tommy John. And when I am sweating through a
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to bet in this upcoming week so we can try
to get back to dominance in our Favorites contest, there's
no better pair of underwear to wear than the most
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(28:17):
I've always needed. So I can be happy whether I'm podcasting,
whether I'm in terrible meetings talking about something I don't
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be comfortable because I'm wearing my Tommy John's. If you
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(28:41):
Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
Couple things I will say for this game, just to
sort of give people a little bit more confidence. We've
seen Action Network coming into the app taken the Packers.
That's not just me and Simon and talking crazy backups

(29:02):
in their first start as an underdog past three seasons
fifty seven percent against the spread. The Colts have a
secondary that is banged up. Couldn't get off the field
last week. Brentston Buckner did not practice yesterday Wednesday, really
important practice day. Matt Lafleur, one of the second best
coach against the spread the past five years. Like the Colts,

(29:25):
I mean like the Jets. There's another one. The Colts
only had twenty five minutes of possession last week, does
not bode well for them against the spread. So we're
on the Packers another game though that I think you
and I might disagree on Cleveland at Jacksonville. That number

(29:46):
has stayed at three and a half. I think the
wise guys are coming in on Cleveland. You still want
to fade Cleveland or at least pass on this game.
Like I think Jacksonville's defense is in trouble. I think
they also have secondary issues. I think Cleveland's defense has
something to prove against a Jacksonville team that I don't

(30:09):
think is as good as the Cowboys. Jacksonville blew a
big lead, so it's a little bit of a reason
to like Jacksonville. What's your thought here?

Speaker 2 (30:21):
Yeah, and it's down to three to couple books if
you do want to take the Jacksonville just minus three.
But Chad's right, like the pros liked Cleveland here for
a bunch of reasons. Obviously, there's a lot of trends
that point to taking Cleveland here and fading this Jacksonville team.
But I'm just looking at on field football stuff and
when I break down the film, there were so many

(30:42):
great throws there for Trevor Lawrence, Like he had guys
in good positions and they were open. And I know
for a fact Doug Peterson's going back and watch it
tape and he's gonna see all that. And you know,
we talk all the time Cleveland on the road that
team did not travel last year. We said those trends
don't carry over from here year, right, And we already
saw that Week one, right, they were not that same

(31:03):
defense Week one at home against that Cowboys team as
they were last year. I think that, you know, we've
seen it historically. Jim Schwartz has these years where he
has an incredible dominant defense and then they fall off
a cliff the following year, right when teams kind of
figure out how to go against his his scheme. And
right now he's oh for one, And like that really

(31:23):
stands out to me where it's like, I get what
the pros are seeing here, But I think this Jacks
team is not as bad as people say, Like even
Chattier saying their defense didn't play that well. I mean
it was seventeen to seven midway through the third quarter
against a high powered Miami defense at home, and again
that could be Miami not being in rhythm, and it
took them a while to get into rhythm, and eventually

(31:43):
they did get up to twenty points. Right, So that's
maybe I am overrating the Shaguars deep. It's a little bit.
But I love their front four, like I really do,
especially their pass rushing and like they're down to I
think their fourth string tackle at this point. This Cleveland
team with a guy in Watson. When I watch the tape,

(32:03):
he has happy feet. He thinks guys were he thought
guys were around him when they weren't even around him. Right,
He's getting rid of the ball super fast because he
thought he was getting pressure and they were actually holding
up pretty well in the pass block. And it's just
everything feels broken with the Browns. Even this week. They're
not even talking about football, right, They're talking about all
field stuff to these coaches and these other players, about

(32:24):
Watson dealing with his b So it just feels like
it's all bad for Cleveland and the pros here. I
don't know why they're coming in on this one. I
feel like there's other games they would like better and
step in this one. So yeah, me and you definitely disagree.
Chad likes Cleveland three and a half. I'm taking the
Jaguars at minus three. I just I feel safer and
happier taking that number where it's just like I could

(32:46):
see one team getting rolled here and it's not the Jaguars.
I could see Cleveland getting rolled in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (32:51):
I don't like when we disagree because it leads to
confusion and dismay makes it harder for us to find
the games that we want to put into the contact.
Like when it comes down to it, would we feel
better taking Cleveland at three and a half in the
contest or green Bay at two and a half?

Speaker 2 (33:07):
Right?

Speaker 1 (33:08):
Those are those could be all right, okay, because that's
what that's what it'll end up being. Cincinnati, a Kansas city.
It's down to five and a half. Simon says, he said,
get it at six. We got a couple of competing
trends here. Patrick Mahomes is forty eight percent against the spread,
is more than a field go favorite Casey moved from

(33:29):
three and a half to six. It's a huge number.
Mahomes is ten and thirteen and two against the spread.
When the line moves two plus points towards his team.
But like you said, I think before we came on
the show, Joe Burrow right now two and seven against
the spread in his first two games each season hasn't

(33:50):
won in Week two. We really have to be at
betting over reaction because the Bengals were so bad and
the Chiefs were so good. And by the way, this
is one of our three lunk raking games. It's going
to be in the contest. We better at six. We're
gonna take the Bengals. No reason to talk about it.

Speaker 2 (34:13):
No, we hate this spot too. We get the people's pushback,
but we already talked about it. Right. The number eight
just moved too much. And you know, if this is
four and a half in our contest, maybe we don't
play it. But if it's five and a half, or
maybe it goes up to six game, we can get
that six and a half. I'd feel so comfortable taking
it at that number. So you basically nailed it. The

(34:33):
biggest thing, too, is I mean, how many times you've
seen the video of Joe Burrow flex and his wrist,
Like I've already seen it feels like ten times since
that game on Sunday, So the public is all in
on fading this team right now, this Bengals team, they
are probably the bottom of the barrel. I'll open the
action app right now and check what the money is.
But yeah, so it's less than three percent of the

(34:56):
money right now is on the Bengals. Less than twenty
percent of the ticket is on the Bengals, So they're
they've totally fallen off a cliff, right. I think people
just got burned like we did in our survival pool
by them last week. It's easy to hate them and
doubt them. And you know, I understand the worry here,
right because, like we said, the line moved three points

(35:17):
based off really nothing, and people's pushback is, well, it's
moved that much because this Bengals team might be terrible, right.
Their defense is a lot of new faces. They might
just be bad compared to the years they were in
the past. And if Joe Burrow isn't one hundred percent,
you know, no T Higgins, you know, Chase doesn't have
the right mindset this This is a I get all
the reasons why people are fading this team and taking

(35:38):
them homes here, But like me and Chatta Slay say
all the time, like we're just playing the numbers here
and trying to not the outside noise really affect this year.
So yeah, four and a half. I don't see us
putting this one in At five and a half. I
could see us having this this game in our five.

Speaker 1 (35:55):
I don't see it getting to four and a half
in the contest, so I think it will definitely be
one of our fives. There's there's one game I want
to just touch on quickly because it's moved so much,
and that is Tampa Bay at Detroit. We really liked Detroit.
We thought that there was a little bit too much
of an overreaction to what Tampa Bay had done in

(36:15):
Week one. But Detroit is a dominant team and I
love how this game matches up. It is moved to
seven and a half. I don't know if we're going
to put Detroit in our contest.

Speaker 2 (36:30):
We should have made what's that so we should make
We should have made this our fox hole?

Speaker 1 (36:36):
Well we can we can? Can we can we go back?

Speaker 2 (36:40):
Okay, Matt?

Speaker 1 (36:41):
Can we can we change it up? Guys? Did we
already brand it? Can we rebrand it? Someone just tell
me in the chat. But that's fine. Approved, approved, Approved,
all right, We're going back to Detroit. Detroit is going
to be we we love Detroit, and we just feel
like people are still sleeping on this team. And it
is a dominant team in the trenches. Dominant team in

(37:04):
the trenches. I don't know how we don't take this.

Speaker 2 (37:07):
I make this number of minus eight, So again, not
crazy value here, but it's more I think even my
model is underrating this Detroit team vice versa. This Bucks
team has so many injuries on the defensive side. I
just don't see how they get any type of stops.
If they want to run the ball Detroit, I think
they gotta run it. If they want to pass the ball,
I think they'll go to pass it with ease. Like,

(37:28):
I just don't know how they get the three and
outs the Detroit team on the flip side of this
Bucks team, man, Like, if you want to put it
all on Baker's shoulder and let them pass it thirty
forty times, now fields your recipe for disaster. And though
it worked out against the Commander's team, this is night
and day. These are two totally different teams. So man,

(37:49):
this is very chalky of us back to back weeks,
especially last week, Right, people think me and Cheat got
a little lucky with that Detroit number, even though they
were up seventeen to three for about all the games.
But it yeah, like I thought, you know, they had
some rhythm issues last week. I can't see it to
haveing the same right. Just even even talking about the

(38:09):
advantages that this Detroit team has offensively, I don't know
any linebackers that can stop Blaporter were last week the
Rams had a couple of guys that could move around
that could give him some problems, and same go for
this Bucks team. It's like, I get why the public
is kind of in on them, right because they were
so good against the Commanders team. But this is totally
different scenario. And even when I was looking at last

(38:32):
year's I went back and we watched their playoff game.
They are a different team, this Detroit team, compared to
what they were last year. They're just that much better
to me, so Chad, so I feel much more confident
taking this one. I don't mind making this our foxhole
bet at all.

Speaker 1 (38:44):
Simon, We're in the foxhole.

Speaker 4 (38:46):
Let's go, let's climb down into the foxhole.

Speaker 1 (38:53):
Detroit is now our foxhole. I can't remember the last
time we made a more then touchdown favorite one of
our Like Simon says, big bets exec decision foxhole ever,
but I agree. I feel like Detroit might end up
being in our final five. Pittsburgh at Denver. This was

(39:13):
my exec decision because now it's a two and a half,
you got to get the best of the number it
was at three. Doesn't bother me. This is more about
the believing that the Broncos will win outright, you know,
money line parlay boost hint by the way, great spot
for them, yeah, at home against a bad quarterback. Terrible
spot for Mike Tomlin as good as he is as

(39:34):
a dog on the road, just as bad as a
favorite on the road thirty two and forty against the
spread as a road favorite when he opens as a
spread of three or higher in his career thirty eight
percent against the spread. Also, the Broncos are another their
luck looking game. I'm not uncomfortable betting them at two

(39:56):
and a half. Like I'm not. I don't care, Like
doesn't matter to me.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
Yeah, And it feels like for Denver this is an
easy game to turn this Pittsburgh team into a one
dimensional team, right, They're gonna force fields to throw the ball.
I already know how they're gonna do it too, So
I love that matchup for them, even though we're not
hearing much about it from people I here that do
work for Pittsburgh. There's a lot of drama behind closed doors, right.
I think Tomlin went to bat for Russell Wilson and

(40:21):
kind of gave him his word that he would be
the guy if he was healthy. He's not, right, they
have to ride justin fields because he did win that
game last week. So talk about a team that's going
to be filling it and the other side a team
that lost last week in Denver. It's all good, right.
They feel like that young, happy, fun team. And yes,
even hearing bon Neecks talk about he knows like I
wouldn't watch the tape, he knows the same thing I'm watching,

(40:43):
which is he had open guys. If he doesn't get
such happy feet and pull it down and trust his
offensive line, it's bow tie boom like a powder keg
in your mouth, sucking style. He did have opportunities to
pass the ball against what we view as gonna be
one of the better defenses, right. I think Seattle as
much croof we want to get them. They're not that

(41:04):
terrible defensively, So I'm excited for this Denver team. The
only only knack is me and Chad would have loved,
loved having this three and a half in the contest.
We're not gonna let the two and a half scaret
us off just like Green Bay. Like I like both
these ugly dogs here, I'm still gonna take Denver the
The public perception though, that you know, this Pittsburgh team,

(41:26):
they're gonna be able to travel with this defense, I
get it, like that doesn't make sense, but I just
think Denver Champagne, they're gonna have something to wear this
defense down, especially come second half. So even if we
get out to a slow start chat with this Denver team,
I'm not gonna be worried, right, We're we're gonna trust
the Mile High to eventually eat away at this Pittsburgh defense.
And I know that they're just gonna spread them out, right,

(41:47):
like I already talking about, Uh, you know JJ Watt or
t J Watta should say, they're they're gonna just kind
of use him as a dummy, right, They're not gonna
let him dictate this game, which Atlanta they could not do. Right,
they don't have a mobile quarter back. So I'm excited
to see what scho pain is gonna do to counteract
this Pittsburgh defense. And we're getting Justin Fields is a
favorite here. People don't overthink it. Take take the dog,

(42:09):
take the two and a half.

Speaker 1 (42:11):
Something everybody knows. You can't say TJ Wat's name out loud.
He's like, it's like saying Marvin Harrison out loud. I
can't say it right now. We got six games in
our final five, and I was consumed we weren't going
to get to any So I feel pretty good. One game.
I do want to mention and I still want to
get to I want to bring in Evan for some
you know, self fulfilling prophecies here Atlanta at Philly, like

(42:35):
it is the spot you play Atlanta. I know we
don't want to. It is a luck rankings game, the
third of the week. There's only three sides that are
luck rankings. I know you like the I know you
like the Eagles. The line is ticked up in their direction,
gives you more of a spot to play the Falcons.
I don't feel strongly that we have to put it in,
but it is a spot you play the Falcons.

Speaker 2 (42:53):
Yeah, same thing though, Like I took the sixth. Uh,
you know, plenty of professionals are gonna they're gonna come in.
They'll take the six up in Atlanta for good reason though,
Like Chad just said, it's like this number is too
big for an unproven Eagles defense that's full of young
guys that they couldn't stop anything Gribay was throwing at them, right,
Like Green Bay had guys flying open, and you expect
to have a new defense with a bunch of young guys, right,

(43:14):
There's gonna be a lot of growing pains here. So
I get your standpoint. I don't even think this is
like in my top ten of bets I'm even making
this week. I just I'm with Chad, like I wanted
to be on Atlanta. I just had no read on
Kirk Cousins. Even going back and watching that game again,
It's like I didn't even know who that was. That
was not Kirk Cousins. We all know, like it's just

(43:37):
it's a big deal whatever's going on with his achilles,
and we don't really know anything about it. Right. That's
the tough part here, is I am in the dark,
and when I do talk to people on the team.
They don't really know much either, because they're just not
really pressing it right. They're they're like, Okay, well we
know he's not the same old Kirk. They can roll
out the pocket. He's kind of just stuck in the pocket.
But who the Eagles have pressure him, right, that's the
question here. It's like, I don't know if he gos

(43:59):
hav anyone the out outside that could get type of
pressures and give Kirk a problems. So I get your
coming from a really quick game. We didn't touch on
and I didn't mention the sharp calls.

Speaker 1 (44:08):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (44:08):
The professionals like the Giants, the public likes Washington. I
didn't think I'd even be able to get chat even,
you know, even think about putting the Giants in for
a good reason. But I thought he made a red
Evans Evans article about how Dabo just owns this Washington
team in his whole career. Like Daniel Jones is terrible
against everyone else too, he's great against Washington historically. So

(44:32):
if you want to take a team in that spot,
I am going to end up on the Giants. And
if you hate the number, that's another team. I'd just
tease up with the Rams, right, just put them into
get them up to eight points. I can't see them
getting blown out by this Washington team. They just even
going back and watching Washington's offense, it's so erratic where
it's like they it's still a first read pulled down

(44:54):
for Jaden Daniels, right, That's that's kind of how it
is for these rookie quarterbacks coming into this league. So
this this is as bilow as you can get on
this Giants team. I talked to two different book makers.
They have no Giants money. It's just all Washington money.
So I do like the Giants in this spot.

Speaker 1 (45:11):
Giants one and a half point, dogs on the road
at the Commanders. I just didn't bring it up because
I didn't want to discuss people like we're already talking about,
you know, betting Denver at two and a half.

Speaker 2 (45:22):
Carolina, they got it over. If you're gonna listen to
their show, we're gonna have we're getting users every week.

Speaker 1 (45:26):
But we're talking about betting. Malik Willis, Like we're already
asking of people, you know, extraordinary things. But look, I
think right now, like we're talking about Dallas, San Francisco,
Green Bay, Cincy, Detroit, Denver, New York Giants. That's seven games.

(45:46):
We could potentially choose our five from. So right now,
Simon and you and I will might put in the
picks into favorites dot actionnetwork dot com today just to
lock in some lines. I would say Dallas, San Francisco,

(46:07):
Green Bay you can see, and Denver, but that leaves
Detroit on the outside. Would we do Detroit or San Francisco.

Speaker 2 (46:16):
We'll see because I'm looking at it right now that
the forty just putting down to five. So if that's
four and a half in contest, I mean, forget it right,
that's gonna be. That's gonna be We'll be the suckers
with the Joe. Public will buy on that one. So yeah, yeah,
that's a fair to have them both as coin flips.
But I definitely think it's the number that matters with
that one.

Speaker 1 (46:34):
All right, So we definitely think it's gonna be Dallas,
Green Bay, Sincy, and Denver, and then it'll come down
to San Francisco and Detroit. Yeah, okay, got it? All right?
We got to boosted underdog money line parlay because our
sponsors BET three six, five are giving our money line

(46:55):
underdog parlay and odds boost this season. We asked, they said, yes,
each week we'll give out a two team money line
dog parlay Bet three six five. We'll have that highlighted
on their site all weekend long with boosted odds. We
loved how many people bet it. Last week. We were
very sorry we couldn't give out the winner with Carolina

(47:17):
and Indianapolis. But look, keep betting it right because the
more listeners who bet these boosts, the more picks we
can get boosted in the parlay.

Speaker 3 (47:27):
Mot Dog blucks Your Dogs, Your Dog blucks mot Dog.

Speaker 1 (47:33):
This week will be Denver. I can't believe I'm saying
this podcast Malpractice and green Bay. Denver and green Bay,
but we should do is going to be our boosted parlay.
Both games are eligible for bet three six five's early
payout promo, where your money line pick gets marked as
a win if they take a seventeen point lead, even

(47:54):
if they blow the game like the Titans did last week.
If you want to bet this better at bet three
six five, we should still do them any line underdog
round robin like the five teams, because people really like that.
Last week. I mean We're definitely put it in Green
Bay and Denver. You know.

Speaker 2 (48:11):
You know, I'm making the people put in Carolina. Even
though I think it's it's dip below two hundred. We
gave it out at plus two fifty on Tuesday. I
think it's down a plus two hundred now, but still
love the Panthers in that spot.

Speaker 1 (48:24):
Giants.

Speaker 2 (48:25):
Let's see if they qualify. Yeah, there's still plus one
oh five plus one ten, so we can definitely put
them in. Since he now, let me get New England.
And I know we haven't talked about it much, but
like I gotta get New England in that spot. They
just feel like that Wonkee team that's going to start
two and oh they'll lose every game the rest of
the year.

Speaker 1 (48:43):
Right New England, it's.

Speaker 2 (48:45):
Seattle on the road with a bad offensive line. It's
it's kind of hard not to take this number.

Speaker 1 (48:51):
Well, I bet Seattle, So now I feel sick about.

Speaker 2 (48:53):
It cold at minus two and a half. I'm trying
to thread a needle here with Green Bay, you know.
So it's like it's making early bets on Sunday night.

Speaker 1 (49:01):
Brother, I know I stuck. You likes to say it's
like catching the Falling Knife Survivor pick. Last week we did.
We had the Bengals, but we also had Seattle. We
split it in the Survivor pick pools that we're in,
so now we're out with one. But we lucked out
with Seattle. This week. It feels like Baltimore, right.

Speaker 2 (49:19):
Yeah, and we'll do the same thing we're doing too.
I would take Baltimore. I know people are like, well,
I want to save them for later in the year.
You can roll the dice and be a better man
than me and take the Chargers because this this, this
is a good number for them. But it's like Chad knows,
I don't like taking road favorites on the road earlier
in the year like this, Like I like taking the
home the Home Chalk, So yeah, I like I like

(49:43):
the the Raiders. And if there's another team that really
pops out, you know, it would have been the Eagles,
but it's like like the Great Washington or Giants.

Speaker 3 (49:53):
So we.

Speaker 1 (49:56):
Like the Ravens. You said Raiders, and then like people
were not the Raiders in our Survivors.

Speaker 2 (50:03):
Who'd put him for a number two? Would you? Who
would you go with there? I mean Houston, I.

Speaker 1 (50:08):
Was I was thinking the chargers.

Speaker 2 (50:11):
Yeah, they definitely jump out where It's like, I don't
know what else we would use them. But yeah, that's god,
that's gross.

Speaker 1 (50:20):
I know. That's why I don't want to talk about it.

Speaker 2 (50:22):
I'll put the chargers of my notebook.

Speaker 1 (50:23):
Then, yeah, I simon give me your biggest bets right now.

Speaker 3 (50:28):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (50:28):
I mean think people already know love Denver, Uh love Sincey,
especially if you get since he still five and a half.
Obviously I would preferred you get the six, but the
Pros just came in and crush that one. You know, Detroit.
I have a large position on it. Seven seven and
a half. Wow, I think I think comes Sunday. I've
been I've been waiting for the Pros to coming on
the Saints. I'm hoping the Cowboys dip down to five

(50:48):
and a half because that would be probably my biggest
bet of the weekend. But right now I have a
decent amount of six. I'm just really waiting hopefully getting
the five and a half.

Speaker 1 (50:56):
Dude, I got to get out of Mississippi so I
can get back to a legal state and fire away
on the tricks. I haven't really made any bets on
them yet, and now I feel like I've missed it.
Scoot Roulett. Last week you had Philadelphia minus two and
a half. Nice job, Simon, really good pick. Chad had
Tennessee plus four, and I think for you know, thirty
five minutes it looked like an amazing pick. Who is

(51:19):
your scout Rouette this week?

Speaker 2 (51:22):
Last week was so chalky? I don't want to go.
You know what, I will go chalk again? Can I
Can I get Jaguars minus three? Or is that not allowed?

Speaker 1 (51:29):
Of course?

Speaker 2 (51:30):
All right now?

Speaker 1 (51:31):
Fuck?

Speaker 2 (51:33):
Uh no, no, I'm no what I'm not ever thinking.
I'm going Cowboys minus six?

Speaker 1 (51:37):
Can me carey? I'm it. I was about to take
the Cowboys because you took the Jags. But you know what,
it's your right as the winner. It's your right. Yeah,
I guess I have to go with Denver.

Speaker 2 (51:47):
That's good.

Speaker 1 (51:48):
Yeah, all right. We got to get to our friend
Evan Abrams before we get out of here, director or research.
He's gonna give us the final word and just make
us feel better about all the bad things we've done.
The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.

Speaker 4 (52:06):
So Simon almost just took the Jaguars as his favorite
player of the week. So we might as well start
there and how bad Trevor Lawrence has been lately because
that was always where we were going to start, so
perfect timing. Lawrence has actually lost his last six consecutive
starts straight up dating back to November of last season,
including three straight starts straight up as a favorite. The
issue for him has been second halfs. He's one in

(52:27):
six second half ats in his last seven, so that
has been where the game has fallen, apart like last
week against Miami. But the stat Lawrence is eight and
nine straight up as a favorite. He is one of
eight quarterbacks under five hundred straight up as a favorite
last twenty years, with the minimum of ten games started
as a favorite in that role. Now Here are the
most starts of those eight quarterbacks. Number one is Kerry

(52:50):
Collins thirty seven starts. He's eighteen and nineteen. Number two
is Kyler Murray twenty four starts. He's eleven to thirteen.
He's a favorite this week. Kyler is one in six
straight up in his last seven is a favorite, and
number three is Trevor Lawrence. So two of those quarterbacks
currently favorite on the board this week, so a little
bit of caution there. Second one we've got. This is

(53:11):
just a short, short note back to back road games
to open the air. So Steelers is the one I'm
using in this example because everyone seems to like the Broncos.
But Steelers were in Atlanta last week, now in Denver
for week two. Teams to go road road weeks one
and two just thirty eight percent straight up since nineteen ninety.
That is Pittsburgh, Vegas, the Rams, and the Jets this week.

(53:33):
So just a little bit of a tough road trip
to open the air for some teams. Now, you guys
talked about Cincinnati and Mahomes and the whole Bengals chief situation.
So let me give you two notes here. So last
week Burrow, obviously we've seen the video million times, hap
it didn't look fantastic. One hundred and sixty four passing
yards and looking into the passing yards, one hundred and

(53:54):
sixty two air yards on all of his passes, seventh
fewest of any quarterback in Week one. The issue wasn't
the pressure. He was only pressured three times, which was
the second fewest of any quarterback. Now, if you look
how Burrow bounces back, so he had under two hundred
passing yards his team's actually averaged twenty nine points per
game after he throws for under two hundred passing yards

(54:16):
in his previous game. So if Burrow is right, should
be a great spot. Now you look at the actual
number itself, Simon said about five and a half. So
if he's an underdog of above four points, he's ten
and two ats in his career. When he's that big
of a dog with Jamar Chase, he's five and oh
against the spread, never lost. Now, if Burrow isn't right

(54:36):
and that risk is an issue, you kind of have
to turn the tide a little bit and you have
to assume, Okay, Mahomes is about to face a team
and a quarterback who isn't right in their own way.
Mahomes is sixteen and oh straight up at home after
facing a team who had fewer than two hundred passing
yards in a previous game. He's just not the guy
you want to get right against. So depending on how
you feel about Burrow, should be the way you bet

(54:57):
the game. Now, finally, I've got to talk about Carolina
because every podcast and every time we're on the favorites,
I'm going to give you a Carolina trend until they cover,
It's just how we're going to do this. They've been
a dog in twenty one straight games. They failed to
cover their not last nine games as a favorite. They
haven't covered in one as a favorite in three full years.
Every other team in the NFL has three covers in

(55:19):
that span. They've actually held a lead of ten points
or more three times and lost outright in all three
of those games.

Speaker 2 (55:26):
Now to tell you why.

Speaker 4 (55:27):
You should be betting them this week, this is just ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (55:31):
They had the worst loss in Week one.

Speaker 4 (55:32):
They lost by thirty seven points in the last twenty years,
teams to lose by thirty five plus and their dogs
are four or more fifty eighteen and two seventy four
percent against this bread. I don't know what to tell
you but to take points of Carolina. But I will
see you here next week when they are zero and two.
I can't wait.

Speaker 1 (55:51):
Listen, Simon, we're gonna have to find a way to
sneak the Panthers into our five. Even if we're not
going to talk about it. People will just see it
pop up in the Action Network app if they the
Phase five, and they'll just see, oh my god, they
bet Carolina. They just didn't talk about it because we
didn't want to turn people off even more, all right, Evan,
thank you very much. As a reminder of the Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and this

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Must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
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restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next
episode of The Favorites on the Action Network You two

(56:57):
page Sunday night, seven thirty pm. Eastern recapping our final
picks from the contest. In NFL Week two will preview
the blindes that we like the most in week three.
Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,
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Until next time, Love You. Action Network reminds you please

(57:28):
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