Derek Brown and Thor Nystrom guide you through their favorite 2024 NFL Draft prop bets, while offering predictions and tips to enhance your chances at increasing your bankroll. Get the scoop on which props to watch, the best values to take, and how to spot the best odds.
Timestamps (may be off due to ads):
Introduction - 0:00:00
No. 2 Overall Pick - 0:03:25
No. 3 Overall Pick - 0:05:52
No. 4 Overall Pick - - 0:10:05
No. 5 Overall Pick - 0:14:03
1st RB Drafted - 0:19:07
1st WR Drafted - 0:23:14
1st CB Drafted - 0:25:23
Total QBs Drafted in Round 1 - 0:27:29
Reality Sports Online - 0:32:18
1st Defensive Player Drafted - 0:33:24
Brock Bowers Draft Position Prop - 0:44:53
Terrion Arnold Draft Position Prop - 0:47:52
Quinyon Mitchell and Nate Wiggins Draft Position Props - 0:48:48
Cameron Latu and Joe Alt Draft Position Props - 0:49:49
Thoughts on Brian Thomas and Other Draft Position Props - 0:52:45
Helpful Links:
Reality Sports Online - By now, most of you have probably heard of Reality Sports Online, the powerful Fantasy Sports platform where Owners get to build and manage their Fantasy team like an NFL General Manager. But, the question is, have you tried it? It’s time to go see what all the buzz in the dynasty community is about. If you like what you see, use the promo code "FANTASYPROS" to receive a 10% discount on your team or league today! Fantasy Just Got Real at RealitySportsOnline.com
Mock Draft Simulator - FantasyPros has the largest database of expert dynasty rankings for both startups and rookie drafts. Complete fast and FREE dynasty rookie mock drafts using our Mock Draft Simulator at fantasypros.com/simulator.
Leave a Review – If you enjoy our show and find our insight to be valuable, we’d love to hear from you! Your reviews fuel our passion and help us tailor content specifically for YOU. Head to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts and leave an honest review. Let’s make this show the ultimate destination for fantasy football enthusiasts like us. Thank you for watching and for showing your support.
BettingPros Podcast – For advice on the best picks and props across both the NFL and college football each and every week, check out the BettingPros Podcast at bettingpros.com/podcast, our BettingPros YouTube channel at youtube.com/bettingpros, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome back to Beniscrow's NFL Draft Show. My name is
Derek Brown and with me as always, this is Minnesota
mad Man thorn Ice Trowman. On today's show, we're gonna
run through our draft betting card. Yes, we're gonna discuss
all the prop bets you need to be making for
the NFL Draft. All of these odds we're going to
be pulling from bettingpros dot com slash Draft Odds. You
(00:26):
can go there and you can peruse all of these
lines as we roll through them before I bring Thor
in here too. With saying all this, you need to
be tailing our picks on the Betting Pros app as
well as getting into the twenty twenty four NFL Draft
Prop Picks Challenge at Betting Pros. This contest will take
(00:47):
place in the NFL Draft Props group on the Betting
Pros app. So again, download the app on iOS or
andro wherever you need the app at. This is next,
the leaderboard itself be set up to track performance and
showcase all the bets that are being placed. And as
with all things, people love free stuff. Man, Come on, Thor.
(01:09):
We know this, so we will be giving away so
the way that you win the freebiet stuff here win
the prize is here. Top five listeners in ROI on
the leader board will and the prizes will go as such.
First place gets a year a year of Betting Pros
and Fantasy Pros premium subscriptions. Second through fifth place all
(01:30):
get twenty five dollars Betting Pros Shop gift cards. I'm
telling you right now, all the swag is lit. The
hoodies are comfy as hell. Again. How to enter you
download the Betting prosapp, go to Betting Pros dot com
slash draft and click the button to join the group.
Either use your login with the draft props or be
a quick print quick picks or sink your bets in
(01:51):
the app so either of these approaches will count. So
you can either make quick picks or use sync on iOS.
Now only six is available for Android. You have to
make a minimum of five bets to enter monto the
draft board. To see where you're at again, download the
Betting Pros app, visit visit Bettingpros dot com slash draft
and join the group and make your picks. Gotta make
(02:14):
five to get in this, all right? Thor look I
just talked about a lot of things and stuff. Man,
it's all lit though, baby over on BP looking at
all these odds, we're gonna roll through it today. Man,
are you ready for all this? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Sure, am? Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
We are what t minus ten days away from the
NFL Draft, so it's it's starting to heat up. And yeah,
like you mentioned on the Betting Pros app, we have
all the betting the NFL Draft props, so I mean
those markets are moving, Debro, You and I have hit
several of these, you know, going back a little bit,
(02:48):
so we have tickets in pocket. We're gonna talk about
those and we're gonna specifically be given out our advice
for the odds as they stand right now.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
So let's get into it.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Yeah, man, Look, we talked about this. We teased a
lot of stuff at least about the quarterbacks on the
first ever episode of this show, and if you were there,
you already knew and hopefully you place the bets for
the second overall pick. At that time, we were telling
you of plus money to bet Jane Daniels. I hope
some people got in there, man, But let's kick this off,
(03:17):
dude again. Heading over to Benningpros dot Com. The second
overall pick odds are up now. Jane Daniels, the guy
we were talking about when it opened and he was
plus money, has now moved to minus two hundred, So
there's obviously no juice where to squeeze there, thor, but
Drake May sits at plus two ten. JJ McCarthy, our
(03:38):
boy sits at plus thirteen hundred. What else, if anything
excites you for the second overall pick? And are you
getting any more action on this?
Speaker 3 (03:48):
So for me, most of my action has been done
on this. You know you mentioned we talked about this.
You know, I'm looking at thread I put out on
Twitter right after we did that other episode February twenty first,
where the thread was Drake May should not be favored
to go number number two overall and I went into it.
At that time he was minus one fifty favorite. Drake
(04:09):
May was to go number two overall. Right now he
uh is? It looks like plus two ten is the best,
you know, the best odds.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
That you can get on him, you and Jay.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
The argument I made in there was Jaden Daniels should
be the favorite and JJ McCarthy it was the long
shot guy. The odds on both have obviously flipped at
this point, Jayden Daniels at minus at two to one,
I don't think you can bet that anymore. You know,
when obviously when when you were getting plus money on
that was a good deal, but but no longer. The
(04:41):
only one that I could see betting at this point
is if you have if you didn't wet your beak
on McCarthy at the More Juice Ods, there was the report, uh,
you know, going back to the NFL owner meetings where
Peli Sero went around and pulled different NFL executives and
he said the majority of the answers he got for
who was watching and who did they think Washington was
(05:01):
going to take a number two, that the majority of
the answers that he got was JJ McCarthy. Doesn't mean
that that's what's going to happen, but you know, in
that thread and on our previous podcast, I mentioned that
I thought JJ McCarthy was a tailor made fit for
Cliff Kingsbury's offense if they weren't going to get Caleb Williams,
who Cliff Kingsbury worked with last year at USC that
(05:24):
I thought JJ McCarthy was the best fit for that offense. Now,
Jayden Daniels is coming off this historic season in college football,
so you wouldn't begrudge them whatsoever for taking them. It
makes total sense to me that Jayden Daniels is the
favorite there. But at thirteen to one, that would for McCarthy,
that would be the one where there's any value whatsoever
(05:44):
to wet your beacon.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Yeah, I agree, man. We were telling people out in
February to be betting Jane Daniels. He's moved to the favorite.
That doesn't surprise anybody on this show. Moving over to
the third overall pick, it looks like Drake May is
out there with even odds right now you can get
and again we're using all of the draft odds we're
gonna be talking all about in this entire show or
immediately on betting pros dot com slash draft odds, So
(06:08):
right now, I mean, you gotta be shopping all these lines. Story.
You can still get even money for Drake May at
the third overall pick at bet Rivers, but a lot
of other places he's gone to.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
I mean, the juice is definitely there, Like he's minus
one twenty five, minus one thirty in a lot of spots.
So I'm not touching Drake May at third overall. But
you can you can still interest me at like even money.
I'm talking like a unit or something, nothing crazy. I
think the more interesting guy if we're gonna be putting
the money there again, looking at who could go third
overall to the New England Patriots. There's a lot of
(06:44):
stuff coming in about like maybe the New England Patriots
or sniffing around JJ McCarthy. He's at plus four hundred
and Jane Daniels is at plus three hundred. Uh, there's
obviously the receivers are a little bit further down the
board there. Marvin Harrison is at plus two thousand, e
Elite Neighbors is at plus eight thousand. I'm not in
on betting the receivers here, but you could you could
interest me on a little bit of action for Jade
(07:05):
Daniels and JJ McCarthy here, although I mean, look, these
have moved at least a decent amount, so I mean, uh, which, well,
actually Jane Daniels has moved in the other direction. He's
gone if they open at plus one eighty to now
plus three hundred. So if you wanted the hedge, if
you got in late, you wanted the hedge on Jayde Daniels.
I get that, but any action you're taking here thor well.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Yet Jayden's gone up, The odds have gone up because
of course his odds to go number two have gone
the other way for me, you know, like the way
that I attacked this board starting in February when these
things started to trickle out, was it was pretty simple.
Fade Drake Man is a top three pick, and so
my action is on the second and third pick. It
(07:50):
is heavily on both Jaydeen Daniels and JJ McCarthy in
any iteration, you know, and the reports out at New
England that you hear they do go all over the place,
but we've heard quite a bit that they like Jaydeen Daniels.
So I think it'd be a pretty quick pick if
Washington does go with someone else. So you know, that
(08:11):
could justify the three to one that you know, you're
basically it's three to one if Daniels doesn't go second,
because then he's going to go third and then McCarthy.
I mean, I would put it this way, is are
the odds four times better that New England takes Drake
May that JJ McCarthy. I don't think so you know,
(08:33):
based on what we've heard and then based on our
own analysis of these prospects, I don't know. I don't
know about that. So like to me that those odds
should be closer. I have action on Like I said,
McCarthy and Daniels to go third, as I do both
them to go second.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
So that's that's what i'd advocate here too.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
So I will say the plus four hundred is a
bet Rivers. All the other books are anywhere between like
plus two hundred and plus two fifty. So I would
get the action at bet Rivers, but the rest of it,
like I mean you're talking about at DraftKings, very good point. Yes,
plus plus two hundred I wouldn't be touching that. But
if you can still get the action on bet Rivers
at plus four hundred, I think it's a Bible bet.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
Yeah, that's the one where you have to and de Bro,
that's a great point to people out there. You have
to shop the lions half, especially on these draft props
where the juice vacillates so much depending on the book
that you're looking at. I mean you made the point
right there about you know, for instance that and you
guys can see all this, I don't mean to keep
going back and pushing her out, but it's really good
(09:38):
for the line shopping in particular, it's wonderful the difference
between the if you bet it at bet rivers and
for instance, ESPN bet it's plus two hundred, so the
same hundred dollars bet, you're losing half your money if
you would bet that at ESPN bet as opposed to
to bet rivers. And I'm not you know, I mean,
it just depends on which prop you're doing. But in
(09:59):
this this example, you would want to bet bete rivers.
If you're gonna go McCarthy at three.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
Yeah, I agree, man. And moving over to the fourth
overall pick, I think the obvious and this is not
gonna surprise anybody. Marvin Harrison Junior is sitting with the
heavily heavily juiced odds at minus one seventy five, as
high as minus two hundred at some places. Moving down
the board, you could still get plus four hundred odds
(10:26):
on JJ McCarthy being the fourth overall pick, which, in
looking at the outs for Arizona, this is one of
the possible trade up candidates for Minnesota or any other
team coming up for a quarterback. So for me it
comes down to really like, I don't think Jane Daniels
is gonna be on the board at the fourth overall pick.
So the fact that he's plus fifteen hundred, I don't
(10:47):
care about. The ones that stand out to me. If
you wanted to get action on this is either JJ
McCarthy at plus four hundred, which you really got to
again talking about line shopping, he's plus three hundred plus
four hundred on a few but different books. Other ones
he's only plus one fifty, So I would not take
action there on JJ McCarthy. Drake May is plus nine
(11:11):
hundred in some books. Over on Caesars, he's plus nine
hundred to go fourth overall. If I can get the
plus four hundred on JJ, I would sprinkle some action
there or with Drake May. But honestly, looking at this
and the likely outcomes here, it's probably JJ or I'm
probably just staying away from this. But what do you
think thor?
Speaker 3 (11:31):
This is one that that is a stay away from
me because I think that Marvin Harrison Junior's price is
fair where it is right now. You know, the almost
two to one or two to one at most of
these books, and then you know, of course it's it's
Marvin Harrison Junior against the trade down possibility.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
But the issue there, I.
Speaker 3 (11:54):
Think is, I think that this pick has cost prohibitive
in terms of draft equity to the teams that are
actually in play here. You know that the Broncos can't
pony that up. I don't think Las Vegas wouldn't be
in the I don't think Las Vegas would have the
prerogative unless the scenario that Jayden Daniels was here. Obviously
(12:17):
Antonio Pierce brought him to Las Vegas.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
I think that's the.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Only, you know, scenario where they would make a truly
yolo offer. And then of course Minnesota the team where
you know, all spring everyone's been mocking them as the
trade up team. I don't think that they're going to
give the three first round picks that Manti Austin for.
It is going to be demanding for this and maybe
even more so so for me. I I think that
(12:41):
Arizona ends up staying here, and I think I think
it's going to be Harrison. But with where that price is,
I I can't bet that.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
The the only other thing that that I'll say here
too can I interest you and and just just talking
about because we know how crazy the NFL draft kits.
And we have heard some rumors that some teams. I'm
not saying that Arizona definitely has this, but we have
heard rumblings that some teams have Elik Neighbors as their
(13:12):
wide receiver one on their boards. So really, honestly, the
more that I stare at this store, if I were
to bet this at all, I think the way that
I would probably go is the plus seventeen hundred on
Elite Neighbors. I mean, what do you think about that.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
You could?
Speaker 3 (13:27):
I would still be pretty surprised if Elake Neighbors ended
up going over Marvin Harrison. I will too, you know,
at seventeen to one, you know, if you want to
do a pizza money bet on it.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Yeah, I mean this is just fun. I'm like taking
the long shot like that, Like this would not be
in my primary betting card. Like if you again, if
you're doing the contest on betting pros, if you're just swinging,
like swinging from the heels, then fine, But again this
is probably just mostly a stay away just talking about
hedging some here.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
Yeah, and I think we got some some better long
shot bets coming up.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Agreed, Agreed, So moving over to the fifth overall pick.
So again looking at what team is going to be
in the spot for this fifth pick, is this the
spot that gets the trade up? Are the Chargers the
team that move back or do they stay and pick?
And looking at these odds, I mean, right now, Elite
(14:25):
Neighbors is the is the favored right now plus two
seventy five. Marvin Harrison is a plus three hundred. So
really it's funny because you see all the conviction with
Marvin Harrison going fourth overall, But then it's like, well,
then shouldn't Elite Neighbors be the guy? Like if the
Charger's sticking pick here, then shouldn't he be a little
bit more favor than what he is? A plus two
(14:46):
seventy five. But it looks like people are kind of
hedging there. JJ McCarthy's a plus four seventy That bet
makes some sense. Now again he's as low as only
plus two to fifty on some books. But for me,
if you're gonna get action on this and looking in
your bet on two outcomes for me for the Chargers
either well possibly three sticking and picking or trading if
(15:07):
they stick and pick, I think it's probably neighbors or altiers,
So looking at those two options. But the neighbors stuff,
I mean, he's plus two hundred and a lot of books,
so I'm probably out on that. I might wet my
bee go on a little bit of Joe Alt to
plus four seventy five, although there are better odds we're
going to talk about here in a little bit. If
you're gonna make Joe Alt Betts that we could possibly
(15:29):
be making here. Uh, but for me, for it's probably
looking at the plus four seventy for JJ McCarthy or
maybe a little bit of alt action here. What do
you think?
Speaker 3 (15:40):
This is the slot where there's there's value and a
part of that comes because there's stuff up in the
air with it. You know, of course, right now you
look down the best odds call him, you know, neighbors
being plus two to seventy five is the quote unquote
favorite tells you all you need to know about that.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Here would be my.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Thing with that, the guy who just took over that franchise,
You really think he's gonna stick and pick and use
that first pick on a wide receiver? What about his history?
Suggests that he would do that. He's a guy who
fetishizes his offensive line play and that's the way he
builds it up.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
And all he could talk.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
About at the owner meeting was I can't wait to
get started building up my offensive line, literally all he
could talk about there. Does that mean that they will
take an offensive lineman in this slot? No, I think
that they could also trade back. So the thing that
I would be fading is the couple favorites here.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Look, I love neighbors as much as anyone else.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
I love with dunes as well, and I think that
both of them would be values here. And of course,
the charters do need wide receivers. But in addition to
the context I just gave about Harbaugh's prerogative, keep in
mind as well, Day two is absolutely stacked with wide receivers,
and that team in that organization is going to know that,
(16:58):
dang well, an organization that is going to be led
by the foot of building up the trenches first. You
can get immediate, plug and play starting receivers on day
two of this draft. So for me, where I would
be looking with this one, it's the offensive lineman under
the idea that they stick and.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
Pick I e Joe Alt. I have Joe Alt in
my portfolio.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
I think the ones I got it was plus five hundred,
and it's you can still get what is a DK
You can still get four to seventy five that looks
like and then some other books it's either plus four
and plus four fifty.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
It would either be that or else.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
The trade down possibility you mentioned McCarthy is four to seventy.
I'll tell you the other one that we were talking
about long shots before you want to shoot a half
court shot. On this one, it would be Drake May
at plus twenty five hundred. Because in this scenario.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Is very easy, it's very easy to see.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
It's it's you know, you go. It's Caleb one, Jaden two,
McCarthy goes three, Marvin Harrison goes four. And now Josh McCown,
who coached Drake May in high school, is pounding on
the table. Kevin O'Connell, who desperately needs a quarterback, is
pounding on the table, and Quacy's sitting there like, okay, guys, okay,
(18:22):
I'll make the call right and we know that Denver,
you know I'm sorry that la is gonna take that call.
They're not trading with the Chargers and they're not trading
or I'm sorry, they're not trading with the brown because
they're not trading with the Raiders. So that would be
the possibility of Drake May going in the fifth slot.
I think that there's better odds of that than the
twenty five to one shot right now. But like I said,
(18:44):
for me, it would be Alt May or you could
go McCarthy as well. At plus plus four seventy. Those
would be the three values for me on this board.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
Yeah, I agree, Man, plus two twenty five hundred on
Bette Rivers, I still would take the action on May.
On other books, I'm seeing anywhere from plus fourteen hundred
to plus sixteen hundred. But I like that. I like
that call. It's a real sharp call. Man. Moving over
to who will be the first running back? Draft that
and we got a few first positional draft that we're
(19:14):
gonna cover here or but kicking us off with first
running back off the board, the two favorites right now
are Trey Benson at plus two ten Jonathan Brooks at
plus two fifty. They are lower odds that both of
those you could find at a few different books of
the plus two hundred, but there's also a lot of
other spots. Whether their plus one fifty Blake Korum is
(19:37):
plus five hundred odds to be the first running back,
I'm not betting that. I mean, I'm also not betting
the other two top guys, like they're their odds haven't
moved that much. But I just don't see there's a
lot of value in either one of those numbers for
looking at I mean, they open at plus two to
fifty and plus two ninety, So it's not like they're
screaming up the board or anything. It's kind of like
(19:58):
people don't know what to do with this more. I
think you're gonna be with me on one of these guys.
I think the the top two bets for me on
first running back drafted is either gonna be Jalen Right
at plus five hundred and you can get his odds
anywhere from plus five hundred to the lowest I'm seeing
is plus three seventy. I still think that's viable, or
(20:19):
my dude, Marshaun Lloyd, who the odds are anywhere from
plus five hundred to plus eight hundred. But it's either
Jalen Right or Marshawn Lloyd or where I think the
value is here at the horrible what do you think?
Speaker 3 (20:31):
Yeah, I was on vs I N with Tim Marie.
I don't know, it's a month ago when the Running
Back Ones dropped. Yeah, that on VSAM Prime Time and
they asked me about the Running Back One and at
that time, Jonathan Brooks was the favorite, and I said
that that Tray Benson should be. That is obviously flipped
in the market to this point. And now it's Benson,
(20:52):
you know, goes from the two fifty to the plus
two ten. It is there value, there's still it's to me,
you could still bet that.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
I think you could havemit it. But it's not screaming
at me.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
It's not a go wild value one the ROI you've
gotten tighter on it for sure. Brooks was the guy
I was fading for that I could end up being wrong,
but it was a guy who had a sample of
ten games that were good. We didn't see his testing
profile and speed appeared to not be a strong suit
of his. So for all those reasons, I'm fading him
(21:29):
as RB one. And I agree with you de braw
and Jalen Right, I'm actually surprised at his odds. It
looks like it opened at two ninety and now well
some books, you know it's three seventy. But like the
best odds you can get either at fan Duel or
Bette Rivers at five to one. Right now, to me,
that's where the value is. This kid is young, lots
(21:52):
of tread on the tires. Some of our listeners DM
me and said that I was saying that the opposite
way the last time I said.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
I remember when we got hit with It's like, wait, okay, yeah,
we're saying he has tread left. Okay, tread left?
Speaker 2 (22:06):
Yes, yes, yes, yeah.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
You know a guy that didn't have a ton of
usage in college because the rotation that they were in,
but last year broke out. Has the receiving utility, has
the four to three wheels, has the ninety eight percentile
size adjusted at athleticism. I know that Jalen Wright is
getting intense interest from a sect of teams.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
There are there are.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Some specific teams that like him a whole dang lot.
And for fantasy players out there that are listening to this,
obviously we have a lot of those de bro The
Dallas Cowboys would be the most interesting landing spot of
those and on draft day for the fantasy players and
the dynasty players, that's you're paying attention to who Dallas
drafts because whoever that becomes that running back, they get prioritized.
(22:52):
But Jalen, right, for me, if you can get the
five to one, if you're on fan duel, that would
be probably the best one for me.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
The other one is Benson.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
Yeah, and I'm gonna stick with my dude, Marshawn Lloyd.
I'm just not gonna get off of that. There have
been talks or at least rumors out there in the
ether that he's the RB one on some boards, so
I think that there is value there. But moving over
to first wide receiver drafted, I there's just not a
lot of action here for me. Thor Marvin Harrison is
(23:23):
minus five hundred. That's dropped. It actually opened at minus
one thousand, which whatever Elite neighbors is at plus four hundred.
Romadonsay is at plus three thousand. I mean, really, if
you wanted to hedge Marv being the first guy, I
get it, like at the plus four hundred, you could
sprinkle that into your portfolio. But for me, this is
(23:45):
probably just a market. I'm just staying away. What do
you think?
Speaker 2 (23:49):
Yes to that?
Speaker 3 (23:50):
And I think that the bigger takeaway here is Roma Doonzay,
a guy who could have declared for the last draft,
would have been a first round pick and would have
been play to be wide receiver one in that class.
I like I he took the jump this year where
he's now a better prospect than he was then he
would have been heading into last year's draft. But if
(24:11):
he had gone into that class, he would have been
picked somewhere where those four receivers went, and he might
have even led the dance to that. One year later,
he is thirty to one to be the wide receiver
one in this class. It just shows you the caliber
of receiver that Marvin Harrison Junior is and then also
Molik Neighbors and this ridiculous wide receiver class that we're
(24:35):
sitting on. But as far as the betting odds, this
isn't better ball. You know again, like I expect Harrison
Junior to be the first pick, you know, amongst the receivers.
Of course, I'm just not the one that can wet
my beak on on the league Neighbors as the first receiver.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
I would have to believe that to see it, I.
Speaker 1 (24:56):
Mean, I've got him as well wide receiver one. But
for me so I I believe that there's a world
where that can happen. But at these odds, I just
I'm not willing to sit here and lay a lot
with it, Like there's just better bets on the board
to make. But moving over to another market where I
don't have a lot of interest in thor just we
(25:16):
want to bring this up for the people out there
are both the bets they need to be targeting and
also discussing some of these markets where there's no value
in in the first cornerback draft of market. I just
don't have a lot of love for man like Quenya Mitchell.
I think we're in agreement. He's our CB one this year.
He's at minus one seventy Tyryon Arnold. Even if you
(25:37):
wanted the hedge that it's not enticing enough. He's only
plus one sixty five plus one fifty. You can get
him at DK at plus one ninety five. I think
I put maybe like a one United bet on Tyryon Arnold,
but that it was no it would actually was not
the first cornerback draft because we're gonna discuss later where
it is. But what are your thoughts on this one?
(25:57):
I think it's probably just to stay away from me.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Yeah, this is is is probably a stay away the
only one if you're a tyryon Arnold.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
Cooper, if you're going to bring up Cooper, I can't
see him going over these other two guys, can you?
Speaker 2 (26:13):
No? No? And you know how how big of a guy.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
That's why I was like, if you're going to go there,
I can't see him.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
No, no, no, I just I would be I would
be stunned if he ended up being the first cornerback
off the board. As much as I love him, I
could see a team taking Arnold over Quinnyon. You know,
Arnold is the technique and the back pedal and the
willingness to come up and support and run defense. It's
(26:41):
like he's going to have a lot of fans in
in the coaching room that are going to be banging
the table for him. But Quinyon, the evaluators, the decision makers,
the guys that projected forward, I just find it hard
to believe that that they're gonna end up eskewing that
for for a guy like Ernold Quinnon just he checks
(27:02):
all the boxes with the four to three speed, and
then what he did in mobile d bro like that,
because that was the one question of like, yeah, sure
he dominated in the MAC, but like you know, you know,
and we did see him, you know, sporadically. We saw
him one time against Marvin Harrison junior for instance. You
know Taledo what every now and again we jump up
in competition, but he went down to the senior ball
and shut everyone's lights out. So I do believe he
(27:24):
will be the first cornerback off the board. But this
one with where the odds board sets, is not better
ball for me.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Yeah, I agree. Now moving over to one that both
of us are hammering right now for total quarterbacks drafted
and round one, I think you are riding with me
on this in that the market has this wrong right
now with all the steam on Boenix and Michael Pinnox
(27:50):
going round one the under four and a half quarterbacks.
So basically we're saying, the only guys that get into
our Drake may JJ McCarthy, Caleb Williams, and Jane Daniels
the under four and a half right now is anywhere
from plus one fifty four to plus one seventy. I
(28:13):
have already bet this in the betting pros app I.
I'm just gonna take advantage of all the noise and
stuff out there. The or We've talked about this since
it just every time that we've turned on the mics,
we do nothing. BONICKX and Michael Pennox our first round prospects.
I don't think that with all this smoke and fire
and whatever else, that they go first round. I know
(28:37):
everybody's mocking Bonnicks, I get it, but you're gonna give
me plus money on fading the narratives. I've already bet it, dude,
what about you?
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Yeah, I've been mocking Bonex all spring too. It's just
not that kind of mock.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
The center for the dad joke, I didn't see it.
I didn't see it. Coven that got me.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
But no, yeah, no, I'm on the under four and
a half.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
We see this every single spring with the guy the
quarterback who is outside the first round range, who starts
to get the oh, he's gonna go in the first
round and his floor is here, and this team's gonna
take him if he's there. Last year was Hendon Hooker
and and I mean people can go back and watch
our shows and they can watch the mock draft episodes
we did last year, this.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
Time with scoffed at that there was so much eye rolling.
Speaker 3 (29:29):
My skull eventually was like stop it, your your eyeballs
can't come up here again. And Hendon Hooker is well,
I mean Bonix would be in that file him for me,
Michael Pennix is a bit above that. He would be
the one guy. But like even even with with Michael Pennix,
I don't know if you're gonna give me plus one
(29:50):
seventy five. Absolutely, I'm taking that all day. When this
thing opened at minus one thirty, that's closer. It's closer
to the accept Well, you know what, I think that
the fair odd should be, although to me, frankly, I
think it should be more like minus one and fifty.
I think the odds probably should have gotten the other way.
But people need to keep in mind that, you know,
(30:13):
how do I say this the markets? You know, for instance,
in the fall, I do college football betting. The markets
with that, it's a lot sharper in terms of the
people that are moving the lines. When you see sharp
line movement, a lot of times there's stuff behind it,
whether they have intel, whether it's a model they have
(30:35):
that's showing value on one side, something legitimate. The draft
prop market is not that at all. It's just people
throwing money around. You know, there will be media reports
where we're done. It changes the odds. There is a
thing of Malik neighbors looking for houses in California and
that all of a sudden his odds are the chargers
change like it ain't even.
Speaker 1 (30:57):
Just chasing social media in the news man, that's all
it is.
Speaker 3 (31:00):
Yeah, And then they'll they'll buy tickets and then the
odds move like the sports books are just trying to
get half of the action on either side, so they're
gonna they're responding on each side of it. But when
a media report comes down that suggests something, or when uh,
you know, a popular mock draft or puts something out,
then all of a sudden, there's gonna be a bunch
(31:21):
of money one way, and it creates opportunity in uh,
in the marketplace.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
And this is one of them.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
You know, it's popular for people in their mock drafts
to slide in that fifth.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
Quarterback some of them.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
Then this really draws the I rls from thor where
they put in the six quarterbacks. The first's like, come on, man,
give you a break. You think next they're gonna got
the first up, get out of here. But yeah, it's
a conviction thing, you know. I mean, none of these
teams are gonna are are you know, calling up thor
Or They're not calling up anyone else. They're not calling
(31:55):
Jeremiah or Kiper anyone and saying, hey, we're gonna take
Michael Pinnox that you know, blank, whatever it's. You know,
it's a conviction thing. And I don't think that those
guys are first round talent, certainly not. Next Pennix is
the only one that you could even come close to
arguing for. But that's a guy that should be going
in the second round. If you're gonna give me nearly
(32:15):
two to one, I'll take that every day on the
under four and a half.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
Yeah, man, I'm totally with you. I think there's just
there's there's opportunity and there's there's value there. And speaking
of opportunity and value, ma'am, you got to be heading
to Reality Sports Online dot com. I know that people
we've we've talked about this in spades, but we got
to bring it up here. Again, the powerful fantasy sports
platform where owners get to build and manage their fantasy
teams like an NFL GM. The question is, have you
(32:42):
tried it? You gotta go see what all the buzz
in the diace community is about. Free agency, multi year contracts,
rookie draft, multi team trades, franchise tags, contract extensions of
first round rookie options, automated contract and salar carap functionality,
and so much more. It's not complicated at all. It
just takes another layer of strategy. If you think you're
among the fantasy elite, go try it out today with
(33:05):
a free mock free agency auction. Test out those GM skills.
Use the promo code Fantasy pros to to get a
ten percent discount on your team league today. The promo
code Fantasy Pros to get a ten percent discount on
your team or league today. Fantasy just got real at
Reality sports online dot com. Speaking of real things, baby,
(33:25):
we gotta be making some real bets. Thore On. The
first defensive player drafted right now, Dallas Turner is the
heavy juice favorite minus one ten. And I say heavy
because everybody else is at plus money. Baby. We got
lat too at plus three fifty. We got Jared Verse
at plus four to fifty. The two bets that stand
out to me man are Latu La Tu at plus
(33:48):
three fifty. Although I will say this opened at plus
twenty five hundred, so we missed a betting opportunity there
for But the guy that's screams out the board for
me and with this bet is Quenyon Mitchell at plus
one thousand. I'm just gonna lay this out for how
this can go. Chicago taking Caleb Washington goes QB, New
(34:12):
England goes QB, Arizona goes Harrison. Chargers either trade back,
go QB, offensive line, wide receiver, pick your flavor. The
Giants the same. Tennessee takes offensive line or trades back Atlanta.
Let's go baby, give aj Terrell a running mate for
the years to come. My favorite bet on this one
is Quinyon at plus one thousand. You can get that
(34:34):
over on DK right now. Thor what do you think?
Speaker 2 (34:38):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (34:39):
You know, when I got done with the edge rushers
my work on that, you'll recall this. De Bright I
called you and I you know, I of course I
watch Outabama live and but you don't want to.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
You know, from that we talked about how much you
love Dallas Turner. I remember this conversation very very emphatically.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
Yeah, that's not how.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
You know. You you watch it during the regular season
and you don't want to take away too many opinions
from that. But then you know, you watch the cutups,
and I liked him less the more that I watch.
I gotta be honest that the athletic testing profile is great,
and he's got the long ropey arms and and and
that stuff is great, and he has the flash plays
(35:23):
on film and and and sometimes you see the stuff
working in conjunction. He has a very good long arm
move in conjunction with with with the long arms, but
not a lot of other moves outside of you know,
he runs around the offensive tackles way too often, UH
for for my liking. UH tries to leverage the athleticism
(35:45):
against those what was the SEC tackles there. I don't
know how that goes to the NFL. I think it's
gonna be a rockier acclamation for Dallas Turner. An undersize
coming downhill UH type edge defender for me, if if
you're gonna be drafting a dude on the pass rushing utility,
(36:07):
it's clearly law too. If if your medical team is
comfortable enough with the medicals on law too.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
And that's been the only question.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
A Lot two would have been my edge one with
a bullet from the get if there wasn't that medical thing.
And this is the tough thing about doing a job
like this is we don't get access to that we
don't like. The public doesn't, and of course the media does,
because if the media did, then the public would too.
But you know, because of that you have to sort
(36:39):
of extrapolate and and hear whispers and who do you trust,
and and and and all that sort of stuff.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
The movement in this.
Speaker 3 (36:47):
Market would suggest that, uh, you know, optimistic news about that.
Certainly LA two's process has gone well, and so if
if indeed he is has been cleared on that, he
is absolutely in play to be the first defender. In fact,
I go as far as to say, if we knew
that Latu's body was not going to betray him or
(37:11):
his career was not going to get cut short at
the next level, he absolutely should be the first defender
off the board.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
The only question is is the injury.
Speaker 3 (37:21):
He has all the athleticism that you want and the
production profile is absolutely ludicrous. Go back and look at
the last two years his sex and pressures per pass
rushing snap.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
It's insane. It will blow your mind.
Speaker 3 (37:38):
And it's both the athleticism and the fluidity is what
really jumped you know, Like he has the high octane athleticism,
but you know when we saw him down at Mobile
de Bro, he's just.
Speaker 1 (37:49):
Ampolished, dude. He's just so solish.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
And so smooth, like all the movements, it's just so smooth.
Speaker 1 (37:56):
He's like a freaking Swiss army knife. He's like, you
need a magnifying glass, you need the scissors. Oh, oh,
you need the tiny knife. He's got all the different
bags of tricks in his pass rush repertoire man.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
Every single one. And a hustle guy, a great teammate.
I think I've told this story on a but I
don't think I've told it on this one. But when
we were down there on a Rep. Gabe Hall, the
interior defensive lineman from Baylor, a big, a big guy
in the inside. You know, he's like six five, three hundred.
He chased down a running back to the sideline where
(38:29):
it was like he funneled him to the outside and
then the running back on this this play and the
team drills ended up having to run out of bounds
and a lot too, and it was it was closer
to the sidelines where Deebro and I were sitting.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
Lot two. Runs over to him and you could hear
him all around the stadium.
Speaker 3 (38:45):
Gave gave great job, gave awesome hustle, gave great job.
Speaker 2 (38:49):
He's one of those guys. He he's like the guy who.
Speaker 3 (38:52):
Was always encouraging and pointing out and celebrating the hustle
and the small things of his teammates. Because he's one
of the guys that does that, he's gonna he ingratiated
himself to his seammates at UCLA for that reason, the
coaches are going to love him at the NFL level. Again,
it just comes down to the medicals, which is the
one unknowable thing. Obviously, you know, we missed the boat
(39:15):
at the twenty five hundred, but you know, at three
and a half to one, I still believe that there's
a little bit of value there. Again, it just comes
down to the medicals. The other you mentioned Quinnon Debro
for sure, that one's just isn't gonna you know, would
the cornerback be the first position. We talked about the
(39:36):
first cornerback off the board before. I believe it will
be Quinyon. So I mean, you can do the math
on which team is going to be going first if
they could end up taking a cornerback, you know, be
at the Falcons Debra you were talking about.
Speaker 2 (39:48):
But at ten to one, that seems.
Speaker 3 (39:51):
Like really really good, a really good price, especially to
Fade Dallas Turner, who should not be a minus one
in my opinion. The other one de Broke a little
bit longer shot Byron Murphy at eleven to one Byron Murphy.
De bro one of those guys who it's like every
(40:12):
week he just goes in, like in the consensus, it's
like a little bit up, a little bit up, a
little bit up, a little.
Speaker 1 (40:17):
Bit up, little bit up, little bit up.
Speaker 2 (40:19):
He just keeps going and going.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
And so I do believe he is the best interior
defensive lineman in this class. And I do understand why
he because he grew on me the more that I
watch him as well. He gives you the penetration out
of the three techniques on the interior, the gap shooting stuff.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
But what I appreciate it more is in contrast to
a lot.
Speaker 3 (40:42):
Of guys like that in run defense, he's not just
looking to shirt people and shoot gaps lose his gap integrity.
When he doesn't win that way, He'll stay in that gap,
keep the gap integrity, keep leverage, and it's really difficult
to move him when he plants his legs and then
gets under your pads.
Speaker 2 (41:02):
I really like him for that reason.
Speaker 3 (41:03):
It's sort of a two way guy in terms of that,
a rarity for for one of those pass rushing interior
three technique guys and the other thing. The other point
I make about Murphy is the defensive interior class. People
got to keep in mind it starts to drop pretty
quick after Murphy and Newton.
Speaker 1 (41:21):
So the you know, especially with offensive tackle field stuff.
With Sweat too, I would say that too. It's maybe
fall Yeah.
Speaker 3 (41:30):
Yah, I agree, Sweat's gonna be our fall guy. Sweat,
you know before maybe maybe mid second round a little
bit higher. You know, it would have been the fringes
of around forty forty five. But yeah, I do think
he's going to fall into round three now, and who knows,
I mean, depending on how seriously people take that off
(41:51):
field thing. The questions he has to answer about that
could even fall into the top of day three. So
that's a great pointd Bro, because it knocks out another
guy potentially that you could have looked at as a.
Speaker 1 (42:02):
Just whittled it down and you made it. You made
the market for that position even more scarce, so you
could see teams being aggressive. Like I look, I can
make you an easy case that Murphy or law To
could go to Tennessee, Atlanta or Chicago and being the
(42:23):
first guy off the board, Like Tennessee's got pass rush
and they got defensive tackles. But some of those guys
like looking at contract situations, looking at age and things
like that, Like I'm not telling you Tennessee's pass rush
is bad. That that would be the spot where I
would be betting law To or Murphy because they could
use help at those spots where they've already kind of
(42:45):
shored up corner and a few other needs. So if
Tennessee doesn't go offensive line like everybody's projecting, I could
see Tennessee going with an edge or defensive tackle and
it's not crazy for her.
Speaker 2 (42:58):
The I just ESPN bet Dallas Turner is minus one
fifty for this. I just I can't get over it.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
Like Dallas Turner again, six two six eighths two hundred
and forty seven pounds with an eighty eight percentile athletics score.
He's never at a PFF grade over eighty two, and
he's over eighty.
Speaker 2 (43:21):
One point seven. And he's a downhill rusher guy.
Speaker 3 (43:23):
Last year's pass rushing grade with seventy three point six
latus is ninety one flat like and again like I
get it with Turner. You know, he did have the
fifty five pressures last year eleven sacks.
Speaker 1 (43:36):
I get it.
Speaker 2 (43:38):
But to me, the utility, it's.
Speaker 3 (43:40):
It's just a bit, you know, one sided with Turner
and he needs to work on that technique. He needs
to have other stuff off that long arm. And I
wonder if it's the play strength is the reason that
he shirts going up against those offensive tackles, And then
you wonder going to the next level, is that going
to be an issue when you have to be tangling
with those guys every single time?
Speaker 2 (44:01):
He needs more tools in the toolbox.
Speaker 3 (44:04):
We'll see if the I mean, like the media clearly
disagrees with me, you know, like the Turner's been like
the edge one, and we'll see on draft day. But yeah,
if again, like if a lot of two his medicals
are fine, he would for sure be above it. I
also have Jared Verse above Dallas Turner. I don't think
that Verse will be the first defender off the board,
but his odds are for anyone interested is four fifty
(44:27):
to one.
Speaker 2 (44:28):
But I mean, like, you know another possibility.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
In terms of that, Yeah, I don't disagree, man. I
would say I'd be betting Verse if we had his
odds a little bit higher, like probably like plus six
hundred plus seven hundred. I think you could interest me
in that, like maybe a small smattering, but even that
I probably would in a perfect world to really lay
some coin on it, I'd want Verse like plus nine
(44:51):
hundred or plus one thousand, like quin Yon. But moving
over to the draft position prop so looking at weird
guys could go over on under a certain pick number, Dude,
this first one kind of sticks out to me. Brock
Bowers at eleven and a half, the under on the
eleven and a half, so basically saying the Jets or
(45:14):
whoever makes a trade with Minnesota at eleven. So I'm
looking at you Los Angeles Chargers, one of those teams
takes brock Bowers the under on eleven and a half.
We're getting plus money at in some books like plus
one sixty five. Yeah, buddy, you can interest me in that.
What are your thoughts?
Speaker 3 (45:37):
Yeah, I think I think i'd probably be with that
as well. The odds on that one have really you know,
of course it open house.
Speaker 1 (45:44):
Yeah, it opened a heavy juice on under ten and
a half. And now we're moving like, what what's.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
Changed with that?
Speaker 3 (45:51):
We have? We have gotten the one extra slot, you know,
to so for the trade down possibility, right, but even so,
you know, but the other thing that changed the odds
was there was some reports out of New York that
you know that they could be looking at offensive line
that maybe they weren't, you know, the brock Bowers wasn't
the fixed outcome that some people were you know, had
(46:14):
thought before. But you just have to think when they're
on the clock, Aaron Rodgers is around there, and then
thinking about the team and the window that they have
right now. Bowers would be an enormous upgrade at two
different spots there. They need a pass catching tight end
(46:35):
and they also need a starting slot both still like
I mean, however, you want to look at Bowers, plenty
of utility for a team like that, and in the
final years of Rogers' career. I think with it being
the eleven and a half with getting the one sixty five,
I get the risk on this one because he could
(46:56):
fall down. He could fall into the teams, absolutely, But
if you're getting the plus one sixty five and you
get that extra slot, I think there's enough value to
justify an under bet there.
Speaker 1 (47:07):
Yeah, I do too. And the other thing we alread
even talked about is what if you have a team,
like we're talking about the Minnesota draft spot. What if
you have the Chargers. If they don't select him, what
if another team comes up and gets him, Like we've
heard a lot of people like wanting to mock him
to Indy. Indy's right there in striking distance, Dude, they're
at fifteen, So I don't think it's also insane. Like
(47:28):
playing the range of outcomes here, You've got a lot
of outs with getting the extra slot, Like if this
was ten and a half, then I would disagree with it.
Then I wouldn't be betting this. But plus odds and
we got the pick moved up a little bit, so
you get two outs right there, and you get the
out of some team like Indy wants to go from
fifteen to eleven and take him. You're still getting the
(47:50):
under bet there, dude. All right, moving over to the
next one man, tarry On Arnold the under at sixteen
and a half. You can get plus money at plus
one fifteen on some books. I'm in on that, throwing
a little bit of coin at that. What are your
thoughts on there? I just think we have outs for
terryon Arnold, like Indeed has corner needs Denver could take him,
and then we're talking about Quinnon. If he goes top ten,
(48:11):
top eleven, then yeah, Terryon Arnold again talking about scarcity
with these guys cornerback, he could be the next guy.
And I'm not saying like I wish the odds were
a little bit higher on this, but what are your
thoughts on Terryon Arnold?
Speaker 3 (48:23):
Yeah, the Quinnon is is definitely gonna go above that.
So that sort of window there is where this bet
comes into play for Terry On.
Speaker 2 (48:32):
Is he gonna go in that.
Speaker 1 (48:34):
You know?
Speaker 2 (48:35):
Ten two?
Speaker 3 (48:36):
What is it?
Speaker 2 (48:38):
Sixteen range?
Speaker 3 (48:39):
I think that there's It's not my favorite one on
the board, but I could see sprinkling a little bit
on the under of this getting the plus one fifteen juice.
Speaker 1 (48:48):
And speaking of Quinnon again, if you're making a very
pro Quinyon case, or you're trying to hedge some of
these other corners, I would I do like the action
on him as far as like the under on thirteen
and a half again talking about if he goes to Atlanta,
he goes to a few of these other teams that
have corner needs. The under thirteen and a half you
can get plus money on some books a plus one twenty.
(49:11):
I kind of hopped over Nate Wiggins because I really
don't care, Like twenty six and a half, it's minus
odds on both sides. I'm just not betting that. But
what are your thoughts on Quinyon Quinyon that?
Speaker 2 (49:21):
That's a bet for me.
Speaker 3 (49:22):
Yes, under thirteen and a half, especially getting the plus odds.
I think that there is real value there. That's my
favorite so far that we've gone over Wiggins. That's right
on the line. That's a fair price. You could see
him going, you know, within a three to four band outcome.
Above that, you could see him going within a three
to four band outcome beneath that, but that is right
(49:44):
in play with where he's going to go, So.
Speaker 2 (49:47):
That would be a stay away.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
Yeah, and pretty much I'm staying away from the next
two bets too, like layout to Latu's under at eighteen
and a half again we've talked about him, is at
minus one fifteen if you want to bet the over,
but I would not be betting that at eighteen and
a half. You can get plus money on that. I'm
staying away from that because our position is we think
he's underrated, probably goes a little b higher than people think.
(50:10):
Same thing with Joe Alt. The under seven and a
half is that minus two fifty. What are your thoughts
any on a law to or Alt.
Speaker 3 (50:19):
Yeah, My thoughts on these on both lat Too and
Alt are if you want to bet, like if you're
bullish on those guys, there's better odds in the slot
market for Alt. You know, for instance, at the five
to one we talked about that earlier, where you'd get
nearly five to one on him. That's where I would
go as opposed to you know, if you go under
(50:41):
seven and a half, it's minus two fifty. To me,
that's it's almost cost prohibitive.
Speaker 2 (50:47):
To play that.
Speaker 3 (50:47):
I would more with him, either go with a specific
slot or a specific team so you can get it juiced,
because there's not a ton of possibilities obviously, when you're
talking top seven, it's only seven options and the the
top three teams are already out, so's it's limited ones
with lot two if you want to bet on him,
as opposed to doing the slot one here, where again
(51:10):
you have to pay the juice. On the other side,
I would do the you know, take a shot on
whether it's first defender or whatever. If they had modified
slot ones where you could toggle it and then you
could get the bigger juice. I would do that with
a lot two because again going back to with the
one unknowable with him, it's the medicals. If the medicals
are cleared, that's where he becomes in play to go
(51:32):
anywhere you know, top around the top ten, right outside
of it, and where he could be in play to
be the first defender off the board. But it's unknowable
if they got if team's got bad reports on that,
then it could go the other way. That's why I
would prefer to do the long wet my beak on
a long shot bet with lot two as opposed to
(51:52):
a bet like.
Speaker 1 (51:53):
De Yeah, I don't disagree, man, and just moving down
the board, I think for me, moving on the board,
I want to highlight a few of the ones that
stick out to me because a lot of these are
non bets for me. Brian Thomas under sixty and a
half at plus one forty, I'm in on that. My
last mock, I give him the indye at fifteen. I
think it's a very very realistic landing spot as well
(52:15):
as I think that it's in play for one of
these teams. I'm looking at you Buffalo to possibly trade
up and go after Brian Thomas. Looking at anything else,
I do think and I'm not betting this, but I
think it's very interesting and telling of the QB market
and stuff. Anybody betting that over four and a half
Michael Pennix is his over thirty two and a half,
(52:37):
so basically saying that he's not a first round pick
is is minus one ninety. So again, look where you're
placing your money people, But for me, I mean, look,
the only standout I bet left is the is the
Brian Thomas bet at the plus money. Really, the rest
of these a lot of these are stay away, but
(52:57):
anything else left on the board, Terry you right now for?
And what are your thoughts on Brian Thomas.
Speaker 3 (53:04):
The Brian Thomas one's interesting because yeah, I do think
that one comes down to Indy, And with Indy, it's
the three dimensional chess of what on day two, which
which receiver is gonna be there? What's the difference between
him and say Brian Thomas, and then the other position,
Let's say cornerback right, Let's say it's uh, Terry on Arnold.
(53:26):
What's the difference between Terry on Arnold and then when
our next pick on day two and what's the discrepancy
between the two. So you're playing some three dimensional chess there.
That's where they could end up deferring off of Brian Thomas.
But I think Brian Thomas is such a good fit
for for them, the deep ball guy with Anthony Richardson,
It's it's sort of perfect. And then you get the
(53:46):
spacing for for downs and Pittman and the run game
everything like that. But yeah, that's what it comes down to.
So I'd be okay with that one. Not my favorite
bet on the board because I could see that one
going either way, But I could. I wouldn't argue against
that one at all. I'm definitely you mentioned I'm fading Pennex,
(54:07):
fading Nicks at the odds that they're at Nicks as
twenty six and a half get out of here.
Speaker 2 (54:12):
Definitely going over on those ones.
Speaker 3 (54:15):
Just perusing a couple of these other ones, I think
you could probably comfortably bet the over on Jackson power
at Johnson at thirty two and a half there. You know,
earlier this process there was a lot of enthusiasm for him,
but there's been a lot of reports recently that looks
like he's going to get pushed out of the first round.
(54:36):
So I think that you could bet that one. J. J.
McCarthy at the five and a half. We have our
bets on on McCarthy and our portfolio at more juet
odds and that once.
Speaker 2 (54:48):
I probably stay away.
Speaker 3 (54:49):
From that one personally for me, if you want to
go a bit of a longer shot one that I
like a little bit more, Tyler Geydon at over twenty
nine and a half half.
Speaker 2 (55:00):
Some people like Tyler Geydon more than me.
Speaker 3 (55:03):
To me, he's a second round guy, you know, Will
a team take a shot on him on the in
the late first Yeah, maybe the physical tools are really good.
I definitely get it, But people need to keep in
mind again, the offensive tackle class is frigging stacked, and
it's stacked into day two. Why are you going like
(55:23):
in a regular tackle class, that kind of guy, that's
when he gets reached on in the first round.
Speaker 2 (55:29):
I don't underst like in this one. I don't understand
why you would do that.
Speaker 3 (55:33):
When you can get a guy like Patrick Paul in
the mid to late second round to come in and
play immediately, you're gonna reach on Tyler Guyden a round
before that.
Speaker 2 (55:44):
At twenty nine and a half. You can get on
the over.
Speaker 3 (55:46):
You can get plus two thirty at Caesars on the
over at Tyler Guiden getting better than two to one.
I will definitely take that. The other one I was
gonna say was Chop Robinson over twenty six and a half.
Speaker 2 (56:00):
I like Chop. I do.
Speaker 3 (56:04):
The pass rush, especially in the pressure rate, everything like that. However,
very short arms, very short arms, and he's not good
in run defense either. And the short arms thing it
manifests in a couple of different ways, even beyond the
obvious ones that are are statistical. He had a big
mistackle rate, which I think is in part attributable to
(56:25):
the tackle radius.
Speaker 2 (56:27):
And then the other thing.
Speaker 3 (56:28):
The past couple of years he had the bizarre thing
where the pressure rates were always insane, but the sack
the sacks weren't there with it. And you could argue
a little bit having a little bit of a smaller
fisher net to catch the fish is one of the
reasons that they're getting.
Speaker 2 (56:42):
Off the line.
Speaker 3 (56:44):
So again, I like the ability to generate the pressure
in the athleticism, But to me, that's a guy that
profiles generally as a guy that goes at the top
of the second as opposed to the late first And
at twenty six and a half, I'm going over on
that one.
Speaker 1 (57:01):
Yeah, I can definitely get down with that. My favorite
bet and the more that I thought about this that
you mentioned was the guit and over twenty andine and
a half, and I just think, like, with that bet, dude,
like you're just making a bet that, Okay, Green Bay
or Dallas, who both have offensive line needs, go with
Barton or Morgan or Memes or some combination of that.
And then we have teams at the end of the
(57:23):
first round taking tackles like Baltimore needs a write tackle,
San Fran, Kansas City. All of them need tackles. So
all you're doing is saying, Okay, Guiden makes it into
the first round, but he goes over and he goes
to Baltimore, Sam Fran or KC at plus money. Oh baby,
I'm so in on that. I'm adding that to the
betting card man. But look, this has been our NFL
(57:44):
Draft betting preview with Thorn and I again. Go check
out the Betting Pros app. You need and all the
odds again that we talked about on this entire show
can be found at bettingpros dot com slash draft odds.
Get into the prop pick challenge again. I don't love
the Betting prosapp. Go to bettingpros dot com slash draft,
click the button join the group. You need five bets
(58:06):
minimum to enter four and I will be back next
week to dive further and further into this NFL Draft class.
The closer we get to being live on YouTube for
Day one and Day two until then we're out of here.
Speaker 3 (58:20):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football Podcast.
Speaker 1 (58:24):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at
fantasy pros At.
Speaker 3 (58:34):
Subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasy pros
Welcome back to Beniscrow's NFL Draft Show. My name is
Derek Brown and with me as always, this is Minnesota
mad Man thorn Ice Trowman. On today's show, we're gonna
run through our draft betting card. Yes, we're gonna discuss
all the prop bets you need to be making for
the NFL Draft. All of these odds we're going to
be pulling from bettingpros dot com slash Draft Odds. You
(00:26):
can go there and you can peruse all of these
lines as we roll through them before I bring Thor
in here too. With saying all this, you need to
be tailing our picks on the Betting Pros app as
well as getting into the twenty twenty four NFL Draft
Prop Picks Challenge at Betting Pros. This contest will take
(00:47):
place in the NFL Draft Props group on the Betting
Pros app. So again, download the app on iOS or
andro wherever you need the app at. This is next,
the leaderboard itself be set up to track performance and
showcase all the bets that are being placed. And as
with all things, people love free stuff. Man, Come on, Thor.
(01:09):
We know this, so we will be giving away so
the way that you win the freebiet stuff here win
the prize is here. Top five listeners in ROI on
the leader board will and the prizes will go as such.
First place gets a year a year of Betting Pros
and Fantasy Pros premium subscriptions. Second through fifth place all
(01:30):
get twenty five dollars Betting Pros Shop gift cards. I'm
telling you right now, all the swag is lit. The
hoodies are comfy as hell. Again. How to enter you
download the Betting prosapp, go to Betting Pros dot com
slash draft and click the button to join the group.
Either use your login with the draft props or be
a quick print quick picks or sink your bets in
(01:51):
the app so either of these approaches will count. So
you can either make quick picks or use sync on iOS.
Now only six is available for Android. You have to
make a minimum of five bets to enter monto the
draft board. To see where you're at again, download the
Betting Pros app, visit visit Bettingpros dot com slash draft
and join the group and make your picks. Gotta make
(02:14):
five to get in this, all right? Thor look I
just talked about a lot of things and stuff. Man,
it's all lit though, baby over on BP looking at
all these odds, we're gonna roll through it today. Man,
are you ready for all this? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Sure, am? Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
We are what t minus ten days away from the
NFL Draft, so it's it's starting to heat up. And yeah,
like you mentioned on the Betting Pros app, we have
all the betting the NFL Draft props, so I mean
those markets are moving, Debro, You and I have hit
several of these, you know, going back a little bit,
(02:48):
so we have tickets in pocket. We're gonna talk about
those and we're gonna specifically be given out our advice
for the odds as they stand right now.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
So let's get into it.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Yeah, man, Look, we talked about this. We teased a
lot of stuff at least about the quarterbacks on the
first ever episode of this show, and if you were there,
you already knew and hopefully you place the bets for
the second overall pick. At that time, we were telling
you of plus money to bet Jane Daniels. I hope
some people got in there, man, But let's kick this off,
(03:17):
dude again. Heading over to Benningpros dot Com. The second
overall pick odds are up now. Jane Daniels, the guy
we were talking about when it opened and he was
plus money, has now moved to minus two hundred, So
there's obviously no juice where to squeeze there, thor, but
Drake May sits at plus two ten. JJ McCarthy, our
(03:38):
boy sits at plus thirteen hundred. What else, if anything
excites you for the second overall pick? And are you
getting any more action on this?
Speaker 3 (03:48):
So for me, most of my action has been done
on this. You know you mentioned we talked about this.
You know, I'm looking at thread I put out on
Twitter right after we did that other episode February twenty first,
where the thread was Drake May should not be favored
to go number number two overall and I went into it.
At that time he was minus one fifty favorite. Drake
(04:09):
May was to go number two overall. Right now he
uh is? It looks like plus two ten is the best,
you know, the best odds.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
That you can get on him, you and Jay.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
The argument I made in there was Jaden Daniels should
be the favorite and JJ McCarthy it was the long
shot guy. The odds on both have obviously flipped at
this point, Jayden Daniels at minus at two to one,
I don't think you can bet that anymore. You know,
when obviously when when you were getting plus money on
that was a good deal, but but no longer. The
(04:41):
only one that I could see betting at this point
is if you have if you didn't wet your beak
on McCarthy at the More Juice Ods, there was the report, uh,
you know, going back to the NFL owner meetings where
Peli Sero went around and pulled different NFL executives and
he said the majority of the answers he got for
who was watching and who did they think Washington was
(05:01):
going to take a number two, that the majority of
the answers that he got was JJ McCarthy. Doesn't mean
that that's what's going to happen, but you know, in
that thread and on our previous podcast, I mentioned that
I thought JJ McCarthy was a tailor made fit for
Cliff Kingsbury's offense if they weren't going to get Caleb Williams,
who Cliff Kingsbury worked with last year at USC that
(05:24):
I thought JJ McCarthy was the best fit for that offense. Now,
Jayden Daniels is coming off this historic season in college football,
so you wouldn't begrudge them whatsoever for taking them. It
makes total sense to me that Jayden Daniels is the
favorite there. But at thirteen to one, that would for McCarthy,
that would be the one where there's any value whatsoever
(05:44):
to wet your beacon.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Yeah, I agree, man. We were telling people out in
February to be betting Jane Daniels. He's moved to the favorite.
That doesn't surprise anybody on this show. Moving over to
the third overall pick, it looks like Drake May is
out there with even odds right now you can get
and again we're using all of the draft odds we're
gonna be talking all about in this entire show or
immediately on betting pros dot com slash draft odds, So
(06:08):
right now, I mean, you gotta be shopping all these lines. Story.
You can still get even money for Drake May at
the third overall pick at bet Rivers, but a lot
of other places he's gone to.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
I mean, the juice is definitely there, Like he's minus
one twenty five, minus one thirty in a lot of spots.
So I'm not touching Drake May at third overall. But
you can you can still interest me at like even money.
I'm talking like a unit or something, nothing crazy. I
think the more interesting guy if we're gonna be putting
the money there again, looking at who could go third
overall to the New England Patriots. There's a lot of
(06:44):
stuff coming in about like maybe the New England Patriots
or sniffing around JJ McCarthy. He's at plus four hundred
and Jane Daniels is at plus three hundred. Uh, there's
obviously the receivers are a little bit further down the
board there. Marvin Harrison is at plus two thousand, e
Elite Neighbors is at plus eight thousand. I'm not in
on betting the receivers here, but you could you could
interest me on a little bit of action for Jade
(07:05):
Daniels and JJ McCarthy here, although I mean, look, these
have moved at least a decent amount, so I mean, uh, which, well,
actually Jane Daniels has moved in the other direction. He's
gone if they open at plus one eighty to now
plus three hundred. So if you wanted the hedge, if
you got in late, you wanted the hedge on Jayde Daniels.
I get that, but any action you're taking here thor well.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Yet Jayden's gone up, The odds have gone up because
of course his odds to go number two have gone
the other way for me, you know, like the way
that I attacked this board starting in February when these
things started to trickle out, was it was pretty simple.
Fade Drake Man is a top three pick, and so
my action is on the second and third pick. It
(07:50):
is heavily on both Jaydeen Daniels and JJ McCarthy in
any iteration, you know, and the reports out at New
England that you hear they do go all over the place,
but we've heard quite a bit that they like Jaydeen Daniels.
So I think it'd be a pretty quick pick if
Washington does go with someone else. So you know, that
(08:11):
could justify the three to one that you know, you're
basically it's three to one if Daniels doesn't go second,
because then he's going to go third and then McCarthy.
I mean, I would put it this way, is are
the odds four times better that New England takes Drake
May that JJ McCarthy. I don't think so you know,
(08:33):
based on what we've heard and then based on our
own analysis of these prospects, I don't know. I don't
know about that. So like to me that those odds
should be closer. I have action on Like I said,
McCarthy and Daniels to go third, as I do both
them to go second.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
So that's that's what i'd advocate here too.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
So I will say the plus four hundred is a
bet Rivers. All the other books are anywhere between like
plus two hundred and plus two fifty. So I would
get the action at bet Rivers, but the rest of it,
like I mean you're talking about at DraftKings, very good point. Yes,
plus plus two hundred I wouldn't be touching that. But
if you can still get the action on bet Rivers
at plus four hundred, I think it's a Bible bet.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
Yeah, that's the one where you have to and de Bro,
that's a great point to people out there. You have
to shop the lions half, especially on these draft props
where the juice vacillates so much depending on the book
that you're looking at. I mean you made the point
right there about you know, for instance that and you
guys can see all this, I don't mean to keep
going back and pushing her out, but it's really good
(09:38):
for the line shopping in particular, it's wonderful the difference
between the if you bet it at bet rivers and
for instance, ESPN bet it's plus two hundred, so the
same hundred dollars bet, you're losing half your money if
you would bet that at ESPN bet as opposed to
to bet rivers. And I'm not you know, I mean,
it just depends on which prop you're doing. But in
(09:59):
this this example, you would want to bet bete rivers.
If you're gonna go McCarthy at three.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
Yeah, I agree, man. And moving over to the fourth
overall pick, I think the obvious and this is not
gonna surprise anybody. Marvin Harrison Junior is sitting with the
heavily heavily juiced odds at minus one seventy five, as
high as minus two hundred at some places. Moving down
the board, you could still get plus four hundred odds
(10:26):
on JJ McCarthy being the fourth overall pick, which, in
looking at the outs for Arizona, this is one of
the possible trade up candidates for Minnesota or any other
team coming up for a quarterback. So for me it
comes down to really like, I don't think Jane Daniels
is gonna be on the board at the fourth overall pick.
So the fact that he's plus fifteen hundred, I don't
(10:47):
care about. The ones that stand out to me. If
you wanted to get action on this is either JJ
McCarthy at plus four hundred, which you really got to
again talking about line shopping, he's plus three hundred plus
four hundred on a few but different books. Other ones
he's only plus one fifty, So I would not take
action there on JJ McCarthy. Drake May is plus nine
(11:11):
hundred in some books. Over on Caesars, he's plus nine
hundred to go fourth overall. If I can get the
plus four hundred on JJ, I would sprinkle some action
there or with Drake May. But honestly, looking at this
and the likely outcomes here, it's probably JJ or I'm
probably just staying away from this. But what do you
think thor?
Speaker 3 (11:31):
This is one that that is a stay away from
me because I think that Marvin Harrison Junior's price is
fair where it is right now. You know, the almost
two to one or two to one at most of
these books, and then you know, of course it's it's
Marvin Harrison Junior against the trade down possibility.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
But the issue there, I.
Speaker 3 (11:54):
Think is, I think that this pick has cost prohibitive
in terms of draft equity to the teams that are
actually in play here. You know that the Broncos can't
pony that up. I don't think Las Vegas wouldn't be
in the I don't think Las Vegas would have the
prerogative unless the scenario that Jayden Daniels was here. Obviously
(12:17):
Antonio Pierce brought him to Las Vegas.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
I think that's the.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Only, you know, scenario where they would make a truly
yolo offer. And then of course Minnesota the team where
you know, all spring everyone's been mocking them as the
trade up team. I don't think that they're going to
give the three first round picks that Manti Austin for.
It is going to be demanding for this and maybe
even more so so for me. I I think that
(12:41):
Arizona ends up staying here, and I think I think
it's going to be Harrison. But with where that price is,
I I can't bet that.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
The the only other thing that that I'll say here
too can I interest you and and just just talking
about because we know how crazy the NFL draft kits.
And we have heard some rumors that some teams. I'm
not saying that Arizona definitely has this, but we have
heard rumblings that some teams have Elik Neighbors as their
(13:12):
wide receiver one on their boards. So really, honestly, the
more that I stare at this store, if I were
to bet this at all, I think the way that
I would probably go is the plus seventeen hundred on
Elite Neighbors. I mean, what do you think about that.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
You could?
Speaker 3 (13:27):
I would still be pretty surprised if Elake Neighbors ended
up going over Marvin Harrison. I will too, you know,
at seventeen to one, you know, if you want to
do a pizza money bet on it.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Yeah, I mean this is just fun. I'm like taking
the long shot like that, Like this would not be
in my primary betting card. Like if you again, if
you're doing the contest on betting pros, if you're just swinging,
like swinging from the heels, then fine, But again this
is probably just mostly a stay away just talking about
hedging some here.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
Yeah, and I think we got some some better long
shot bets coming up.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Agreed, Agreed, So moving over to the fifth overall pick.
So again looking at what team is going to be
in the spot for this fifth pick, is this the
spot that gets the trade up? Are the Chargers the
team that move back or do they stay and pick?
And looking at these odds, I mean, right now, Elite
(14:25):
Neighbors is the is the favored right now plus two
seventy five. Marvin Harrison is a plus three hundred. So
really it's funny because you see all the conviction with
Marvin Harrison going fourth overall, But then it's like, well,
then shouldn't Elite Neighbors be the guy? Like if the
Charger's sticking pick here, then shouldn't he be a little
bit more favor than what he is? A plus two
(14:46):
seventy five. But it looks like people are kind of
hedging there. JJ McCarthy's a plus four seventy That bet
makes some sense. Now again he's as low as only
plus two to fifty on some books. But for me,
if you're gonna get action on this and looking in
your bet on two outcomes for me for the Chargers
either well possibly three sticking and picking or trading if
(15:07):
they stick and pick, I think it's probably neighbors or altiers,
So looking at those two options. But the neighbors stuff,
I mean, he's plus two hundred and a lot of books,
so I'm probably out on that. I might wet my
bee go on a little bit of Joe Alt to
plus four seventy five, although there are better odds we're
going to talk about here in a little bit. If
you're gonna make Joe Alt Betts that we could possibly
(15:29):
be making here. Uh, but for me, for it's probably
looking at the plus four seventy for JJ McCarthy or
maybe a little bit of alt action here. What do
you think?
Speaker 3 (15:40):
This is the slot where there's there's value and a
part of that comes because there's stuff up in the
air with it. You know, of course, right now you
look down the best odds call him, you know, neighbors
being plus two to seventy five is the quote unquote
favorite tells you all you need to know about that.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Here would be my.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Thing with that, the guy who just took over that franchise,
You really think he's gonna stick and pick and use
that first pick on a wide receiver? What about his history?
Suggests that he would do that. He's a guy who
fetishizes his offensive line play and that's the way he
builds it up.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
And all he could talk.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
About at the owner meeting was I can't wait to
get started building up my offensive line, literally all he
could talk about there. Does that mean that they will
take an offensive lineman in this slot? No, I think
that they could also trade back. So the thing that
I would be fading is the couple favorites here.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Look, I love neighbors as much as anyone else.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
I love with dunes as well, and I think that
both of them would be values here. And of course,
the charters do need wide receivers. But in addition to
the context I just gave about Harbaugh's prerogative, keep in
mind as well, Day two is absolutely stacked with wide receivers,
and that team in that organization is going to know that,
(16:58):
dang well, an organization that is going to be led
by the foot of building up the trenches first. You
can get immediate, plug and play starting receivers on day
two of this draft. So for me, where I would
be looking with this one, it's the offensive lineman under
the idea that they stick and.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
Pick I e Joe Alt. I have Joe Alt in
my portfolio.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
I think the ones I got it was plus five hundred,
and it's you can still get what is a DK
You can still get four to seventy five that looks
like and then some other books it's either plus four
and plus four fifty.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
It would either be that or else.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
The trade down possibility you mentioned McCarthy is four to seventy.
I'll tell you the other one that we were talking
about long shots before you want to shoot a half
court shot. On this one, it would be Drake May
at plus twenty five hundred. Because in this scenario.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Is very easy, it's very easy to see.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
It's it's you know, you go. It's Caleb one, Jaden two,
McCarthy goes three, Marvin Harrison goes four. And now Josh McCown,
who coached Drake May in high school, is pounding on
the table. Kevin O'Connell, who desperately needs a quarterback, is
pounding on the table, and Quacy's sitting there like, okay, guys, okay,
(18:22):
I'll make the call right and we know that Denver,
you know I'm sorry that la is gonna take that call.
They're not trading with the Chargers and they're not trading
or I'm sorry, they're not trading with the brown because
they're not trading with the Raiders. So that would be
the possibility of Drake May going in the fifth slot.
I think that there's better odds of that than the
twenty five to one shot right now. But like I said,
(18:44):
for me, it would be Alt May or you could
go McCarthy as well. At plus plus four seventy. Those
would be the three values for me on this board.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
Yeah, I agree, Man, plus two twenty five hundred on
Bette Rivers, I still would take the action on May.
On other books, I'm seeing anywhere from plus fourteen hundred
to plus sixteen hundred. But I like that. I like
that call. It's a real sharp call. Man. Moving over
to who will be the first running back? Draft that
and we got a few first positional draft that we're
(19:14):
gonna cover here or but kicking us off with first
running back off the board, the two favorites right now
are Trey Benson at plus two ten Jonathan Brooks at
plus two fifty. They are lower odds that both of
those you could find at a few different books of
the plus two hundred, but there's also a lot of
other spots. Whether their plus one fifty Blake Korum is
(19:37):
plus five hundred odds to be the first running back,
I'm not betting that. I mean, I'm also not betting
the other two top guys, like they're their odds haven't
moved that much. But I just don't see there's a
lot of value in either one of those numbers for
looking at I mean, they open at plus two to
fifty and plus two ninety, So it's not like they're
screaming up the board or anything. It's kind of like
(19:58):
people don't know what to do with this more. I
think you're gonna be with me on one of these guys.
I think the the top two bets for me on
first running back drafted is either gonna be Jalen Right
at plus five hundred and you can get his odds
anywhere from plus five hundred to the lowest I'm seeing
is plus three seventy. I still think that's viable, or
(20:19):
my dude, Marshaun Lloyd, who the odds are anywhere from
plus five hundred to plus eight hundred. But it's either
Jalen Right or Marshawn Lloyd or where I think the
value is here at the horrible what do you think?
Speaker 3 (20:31):
Yeah, I was on vs I N with Tim Marie.
I don't know, it's a month ago when the Running
Back Ones dropped. Yeah, that on VSAM Prime Time and
they asked me about the Running Back One and at
that time, Jonathan Brooks was the favorite, and I said
that that Tray Benson should be. That is obviously flipped
in the market to this point. And now it's Benson,
(20:52):
you know, goes from the two fifty to the plus
two ten. It is there value, there's still it's to me,
you could still bet that.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
I think you could havemit it. But it's not screaming
at me.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
It's not a go wild value one the ROI you've
gotten tighter on it for sure. Brooks was the guy
I was fading for that I could end up being wrong,
but it was a guy who had a sample of
ten games that were good. We didn't see his testing
profile and speed appeared to not be a strong suit
of his. So for all those reasons, I'm fading him
(21:29):
as RB one. And I agree with you de braw
and Jalen Right, I'm actually surprised at his odds. It
looks like it opened at two ninety and now well
some books, you know it's three seventy. But like the
best odds you can get either at fan Duel or
Bette Rivers at five to one. Right now, to me,
that's where the value is. This kid is young, lots
(21:52):
of tread on the tires. Some of our listeners DM
me and said that I was saying that the opposite
way the last time I said.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
I remember when we got hit with It's like, wait, okay, yeah,
we're saying he has tread left. Okay, tread left?
Speaker 2 (22:06):
Yes, yes, yes, yeah.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
You know a guy that didn't have a ton of
usage in college because the rotation that they were in,
but last year broke out. Has the receiving utility, has
the four to three wheels, has the ninety eight percentile
size adjusted at athleticism. I know that Jalen Wright is
getting intense interest from a sect of teams.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
There are there are.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Some specific teams that like him a whole dang lot.
And for fantasy players out there that are listening to this,
obviously we have a lot of those de bro The
Dallas Cowboys would be the most interesting landing spot of
those and on draft day for the fantasy players and
the dynasty players, that's you're paying attention to who Dallas
drafts because whoever that becomes that running back, they get prioritized.
(22:52):
But Jalen, right, for me, if you can get the
five to one, if you're on fan duel, that would
be probably the best one for me.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
The other one is Benson.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
Yeah, and I'm gonna stick with my dude, Marshawn Lloyd.
I'm just not gonna get off of that. There have
been talks or at least rumors out there in the
ether that he's the RB one on some boards, so
I think that there is value there. But moving over
to first wide receiver drafted, I there's just not a
lot of action here for me. Thor Marvin Harrison is
(23:23):
minus five hundred. That's dropped. It actually opened at minus
one thousand, which whatever Elite neighbors is at plus four hundred.
Romadonsay is at plus three thousand. I mean, really, if
you wanted to hedge Marv being the first guy, I
get it, like at the plus four hundred, you could
sprinkle that into your portfolio. But for me, this is
(23:45):
probably just a market. I'm just staying away. What do
you think?
Speaker 2 (23:49):
Yes to that?
Speaker 3 (23:50):
And I think that the bigger takeaway here is Roma Doonzay,
a guy who could have declared for the last draft,
would have been a first round pick and would have
been play to be wide receiver one in that class.
I like I he took the jump this year where
he's now a better prospect than he was then he
would have been heading into last year's draft. But if
(24:11):
he had gone into that class, he would have been
picked somewhere where those four receivers went, and he might
have even led the dance to that. One year later,
he is thirty to one to be the wide receiver
one in this class. It just shows you the caliber
of receiver that Marvin Harrison Junior is and then also
Molik Neighbors and this ridiculous wide receiver class that we're
(24:35):
sitting on. But as far as the betting odds, this
isn't better ball. You know again, like I expect Harrison
Junior to be the first pick, you know, amongst the receivers.
Of course, I'm just not the one that can wet
my beak on on the league Neighbors as the first receiver.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
I would have to believe that to see it, I.
Speaker 1 (24:56):
Mean, I've got him as well wide receiver one. But
for me so I I believe that there's a world
where that can happen. But at these odds, I just
I'm not willing to sit here and lay a lot
with it, Like there's just better bets on the board
to make. But moving over to another market where I
don't have a lot of interest in thor just we
(25:16):
want to bring this up for the people out there
are both the bets they need to be targeting and
also discussing some of these markets where there's no value
in in the first cornerback draft of market. I just
don't have a lot of love for man like Quenya Mitchell.
I think we're in agreement. He's our CB one this year.
He's at minus one seventy Tyryon Arnold. Even if you
(25:37):
wanted the hedge that it's not enticing enough. He's only
plus one sixty five plus one fifty. You can get
him at DK at plus one ninety five. I think
I put maybe like a one United bet on Tyryon Arnold,
but that it was no it would actually was not
the first cornerback draft because we're gonna discuss later where
it is. But what are your thoughts on this one?
(25:57):
I think it's probably just to stay away from me.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Yeah, this is is is probably a stay away the
only one if you're a tyryon Arnold.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
Cooper, if you're going to bring up Cooper, I can't
see him going over these other two guys, can you?
Speaker 2 (26:13):
No? No? And you know how how big of a guy.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
That's why I was like, if you're going to go there,
I can't see him.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
No, no, no, I just I would be I would
be stunned if he ended up being the first cornerback
off the board. As much as I love him, I
could see a team taking Arnold over Quinnyon. You know,
Arnold is the technique and the back pedal and the
willingness to come up and support and run defense. It's
(26:41):
like he's going to have a lot of fans in
in the coaching room that are going to be banging
the table for him. But Quinyon, the evaluators, the decision makers,
the guys that projected forward, I just find it hard
to believe that that they're gonna end up eskewing that
for for a guy like Ernold Quinnon just he checks
(27:02):
all the boxes with the four to three speed, and
then what he did in mobile d bro like that,
because that was the one question of like, yeah, sure
he dominated in the MAC, but like you know, you know,
and we did see him, you know, sporadically. We saw
him one time against Marvin Harrison junior for instance. You
know Taledo what every now and again we jump up
in competition, but he went down to the senior ball
and shut everyone's lights out. So I do believe he
(27:24):
will be the first cornerback off the board. But this
one with where the odds board sets, is not better
ball for me.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Yeah, I agree. Now moving over to one that both
of us are hammering right now for total quarterbacks drafted
and round one, I think you are riding with me
on this in that the market has this wrong right
now with all the steam on Boenix and Michael Pinnox
(27:50):
going round one the under four and a half quarterbacks.
So basically we're saying, the only guys that get into
our Drake may JJ McCarthy, Caleb Williams, and Jane Daniels
the under four and a half right now is anywhere
from plus one fifty four to plus one seventy. I
(28:13):
have already bet this in the betting pros app I.
I'm just gonna take advantage of all the noise and
stuff out there. The or We've talked about this since
it just every time that we've turned on the mics,
we do nothing. BONICKX and Michael Pennox our first round prospects.
I don't think that with all this smoke and fire
and whatever else, that they go first round. I know
(28:37):
everybody's mocking Bonnicks, I get it, but you're gonna give
me plus money on fading the narratives. I've already bet it, dude,
what about you?
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Yeah, I've been mocking Bonex all spring too. It's just
not that kind of mock.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
The center for the dad joke, I didn't see it.
I didn't see it. Coven that got me.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
But no, yeah, no, I'm on the under four and
a half.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
We see this every single spring with the guy the
quarterback who is outside the first round range, who starts
to get the oh, he's gonna go in the first
round and his floor is here, and this team's gonna
take him if he's there. Last year was Hendon Hooker
and and I mean people can go back and watch
our shows and they can watch the mock draft episodes
we did last year, this.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
Time with scoffed at that there was so much eye rolling.
Speaker 3 (29:29):
My skull eventually was like stop it, your your eyeballs
can't come up here again. And Hendon Hooker is well,
I mean Bonix would be in that file him for me,
Michael Pennix is a bit above that. He would be
the one guy. But like even even with with Michael Pennix,
I don't know if you're gonna give me plus one
(29:50):
seventy five. Absolutely, I'm taking that all day. When this
thing opened at minus one thirty, that's closer. It's closer
to the accept Well, you know what, I think that
the fair odd should be, although to me, frankly, I
think it should be more like minus one and fifty.
I think the odds probably should have gotten the other way.
But people need to keep in mind that, you know,
(30:13):
how do I say this the markets? You know, for instance,
in the fall, I do college football betting. The markets
with that, it's a lot sharper in terms of the
people that are moving the lines. When you see sharp
line movement, a lot of times there's stuff behind it,
whether they have intel, whether it's a model they have
(30:35):
that's showing value on one side, something legitimate. The draft
prop market is not that at all. It's just people
throwing money around. You know, there will be media reports
where we're done. It changes the odds. There is a
thing of Malik neighbors looking for houses in California and
that all of a sudden his odds are the chargers
change like it ain't even.
Speaker 1 (30:57):
Just chasing social media in the news man, that's all
it is.
Speaker 3 (31:00):
Yeah, And then they'll they'll buy tickets and then the
odds move like the sports books are just trying to
get half of the action on either side, so they're
gonna they're responding on each side of it. But when
a media report comes down that suggests something, or when uh,
you know, a popular mock draft or puts something out,
then all of a sudden, there's gonna be a bunch
(31:21):
of money one way, and it creates opportunity in uh,
in the marketplace.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
And this is one of them.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
You know, it's popular for people in their mock drafts
to slide in that fifth.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
Quarterback some of them.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
Then this really draws the I rls from thor where
they put in the six quarterbacks. The first's like, come on, man,
give you a break. You think next they're gonna got
the first up, get out of here. But yeah, it's
a conviction thing, you know. I mean, none of these
teams are gonna are are you know, calling up thor
Or They're not calling up anyone else. They're not calling
(31:55):
Jeremiah or Kiper anyone and saying, hey, we're gonna take
Michael Pinnox that you know, blank, whatever it's. You know,
it's a conviction thing. And I don't think that those
guys are first round talent, certainly not. Next Pennix is
the only one that you could even come close to
arguing for. But that's a guy that should be going
in the second round. If you're gonna give me nearly
(32:15):
two to one, I'll take that every day on the
under four and a half.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
Yeah, man, I'm totally with you. I think there's just
there's there's opportunity and there's there's value there. And speaking
of opportunity and value, ma'am, you got to be heading
to Reality Sports Online dot com. I know that people
we've we've talked about this in spades, but we got
to bring it up here. Again, the powerful fantasy sports
platform where owners get to build and manage their fantasy
teams like an NFL GM. The question is, have you
(32:42):
tried it? You gotta go see what all the buzz
in the diace community is about. Free agency, multi year contracts,
rookie draft, multi team trades, franchise tags, contract extensions of
first round rookie options, automated contract and salar carap functionality,
and so much more. It's not complicated at all. It
just takes another layer of strategy. If you think you're
among the fantasy elite, go try it out today with
(33:05):
a free mock free agency auction. Test out those GM skills.
Use the promo code Fantasy pros to to get a
ten percent discount on your team league today. The promo
code Fantasy Pros to get a ten percent discount on
your team or league today. Fantasy just got real at
Reality sports online dot com. Speaking of real things, baby,
(33:25):
we gotta be making some real bets. Thore On. The
first defensive player drafted right now, Dallas Turner is the
heavy juice favorite minus one ten. And I say heavy
because everybody else is at plus money. Baby. We got
lat too at plus three fifty. We got Jared Verse
at plus four to fifty. The two bets that stand
out to me man are Latu La Tu at plus
(33:48):
three fifty. Although I will say this opened at plus
twenty five hundred, so we missed a betting opportunity there
for But the guy that's screams out the board for
me and with this bet is Quenyon Mitchell at plus
one thousand. I'm just gonna lay this out for how
this can go. Chicago taking Caleb Washington goes QB, New
(34:12):
England goes QB, Arizona goes Harrison. Chargers either trade back,
go QB, offensive line, wide receiver, pick your flavor. The
Giants the same. Tennessee takes offensive line or trades back Atlanta.
Let's go baby, give aj Terrell a running mate for
the years to come. My favorite bet on this one
is Quinyon at plus one thousand. You can get that
(34:34):
over on DK right now. Thor what do you think?
Speaker 2 (34:38):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (34:39):
You know, when I got done with the edge rushers
my work on that, you'll recall this. De Bright I
called you and I you know, I of course I
watch Outabama live and but you don't want to.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
You know, from that we talked about how much you
love Dallas Turner. I remember this conversation very very emphatically.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
Yeah, that's not how.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
You know. You you watch it during the regular season
and you don't want to take away too many opinions
from that. But then you know, you watch the cutups,
and I liked him less the more that I watch.
I gotta be honest that the athletic testing profile is great,
and he's got the long ropey arms and and and
that stuff is great, and he has the flash plays
(35:23):
on film and and and sometimes you see the stuff
working in conjunction. He has a very good long arm
move in conjunction with with with the long arms, but
not a lot of other moves outside of you know,
he runs around the offensive tackles way too often, UH
for for my liking. UH tries to leverage the athleticism
(35:45):
against those what was the SEC tackles there. I don't
know how that goes to the NFL. I think it's
gonna be a rockier acclamation for Dallas Turner. An undersize
coming downhill UH type edge defender for me, if if
you're gonna be drafting a dude on the pass rushing utility,
(36:07):
it's clearly law too. If if your medical team is
comfortable enough with the medicals on law too.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
And that's been the only question.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
A Lot two would have been my edge one with
a bullet from the get if there wasn't that medical thing.
And this is the tough thing about doing a job
like this is we don't get access to that we
don't like. The public doesn't, and of course the media does,
because if the media did, then the public would too.
But you know, because of that you have to sort
(36:39):
of extrapolate and and hear whispers and who do you trust,
and and and and all that sort of stuff.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
The movement in this.
Speaker 3 (36:47):
Market would suggest that, uh, you know, optimistic news about that.
Certainly LA two's process has gone well, and so if
if indeed he is has been cleared on that, he
is absolutely in play to be the first defender. In fact,
I go as far as to say, if we knew
that Latu's body was not going to betray him or
(37:11):
his career was not going to get cut short at
the next level, he absolutely should be the first defender
off the board.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
The only question is is the injury.
Speaker 3 (37:21):
He has all the athleticism that you want and the
production profile is absolutely ludicrous. Go back and look at
the last two years his sex and pressures per pass
rushing snap.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
It's insane. It will blow your mind.
Speaker 3 (37:38):
And it's both the athleticism and the fluidity is what
really jumped you know, Like he has the high octane athleticism,
but you know when we saw him down at Mobile
de Bro, he's just.
Speaker 1 (37:49):
Ampolished, dude. He's just so solish.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
And so smooth, like all the movements, it's just so smooth.
Speaker 1 (37:56):
He's like a freaking Swiss army knife. He's like, you
need a magnifying glass, you need the scissors. Oh, oh,
you need the tiny knife. He's got all the different
bags of tricks in his pass rush repertoire man.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
Every single one. And a hustle guy, a great teammate.
I think I've told this story on a but I
don't think I've told it on this one. But when
we were down there on a Rep. Gabe Hall, the
interior defensive lineman from Baylor, a big, a big guy
in the inside. You know, he's like six five, three hundred.
He chased down a running back to the sideline where
(38:29):
it was like he funneled him to the outside and
then the running back on this this play and the
team drills ended up having to run out of bounds
and a lot too, and it was it was closer
to the sidelines where Deebro and I were sitting.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
Lot two. Runs over to him and you could hear
him all around the stadium.
Speaker 3 (38:45):
Gave gave great job, gave awesome hustle, gave great job.
Speaker 2 (38:49):
He's one of those guys. He he's like the guy who.
Speaker 3 (38:52):
Was always encouraging and pointing out and celebrating the hustle
and the small things of his teammates. Because he's one
of the guys that does that, he's gonna he ingratiated
himself to his seammates at UCLA for that reason, the
coaches are going to love him at the NFL level. Again,
it just comes down to the medicals, which is the
one unknowable thing. Obviously, you know, we missed the boat
(39:15):
at the twenty five hundred, but you know, at three
and a half to one, I still believe that there's
a little bit of value there. Again, it just comes
down to the medicals. The other you mentioned Quinnon Debro
for sure, that one's just isn't gonna you know, would
the cornerback be the first position. We talked about the
(39:36):
first cornerback off the board before. I believe it will
be Quinyon. So I mean, you can do the math
on which team is going to be going first if
they could end up taking a cornerback, you know, be
at the Falcons Debra you were talking about.
Speaker 2 (39:48):
But at ten to one, that seems.
Speaker 3 (39:51):
Like really really good, a really good price, especially to
Fade Dallas Turner, who should not be a minus one
in my opinion. The other one de Broke a little
bit longer shot Byron Murphy at eleven to one Byron Murphy.
De bro one of those guys who it's like every
(40:12):
week he just goes in, like in the consensus, it's
like a little bit up, a little bit up, a
little bit up, a little.
Speaker 1 (40:17):
Bit up, little bit up, little bit up.
Speaker 2 (40:19):
He just keeps going and going.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
And so I do believe he is the best interior
defensive lineman in this class. And I do understand why
he because he grew on me the more that I
watch him as well. He gives you the penetration out
of the three techniques on the interior, the gap shooting stuff.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
But what I appreciate it more is in contrast to
a lot.
Speaker 3 (40:42):
Of guys like that in run defense, he's not just
looking to shirt people and shoot gaps lose his gap integrity.
When he doesn't win that way, He'll stay in that gap,
keep the gap integrity, keep leverage, and it's really difficult
to move him when he plants his legs and then
gets under your pads.
Speaker 2 (41:02):
I really like him for that reason.
Speaker 3 (41:03):
It's sort of a two way guy in terms of that,
a rarity for for one of those pass rushing interior
three technique guys and the other thing. The other point
I make about Murphy is the defensive interior class. People
got to keep in mind it starts to drop pretty
quick after Murphy and Newton.
Speaker 1 (41:21):
So the you know, especially with offensive tackle field stuff.
With Sweat too, I would say that too. It's maybe
fall Yeah.
Speaker 3 (41:30):
Yah, I agree, Sweat's gonna be our fall guy. Sweat,
you know before maybe maybe mid second round a little
bit higher. You know, it would have been the fringes
of around forty forty five. But yeah, I do think
he's going to fall into round three now, and who knows,
I mean, depending on how seriously people take that off
(41:51):
field thing. The questions he has to answer about that
could even fall into the top of day three. So
that's a great pointd Bro, because it knocks out another
guy potentially that you could have looked at as a.
Speaker 1 (42:02):
Just whittled it down and you made it. You made
the market for that position even more scarce, so you
could see teams being aggressive. Like I look, I can
make you an easy case that Murphy or law To
could go to Tennessee, Atlanta or Chicago and being the
(42:23):
first guy off the board, Like Tennessee's got pass rush
and they got defensive tackles. But some of those guys
like looking at contract situations, looking at age and things
like that, Like I'm not telling you Tennessee's pass rush
is bad. That that would be the spot where I
would be betting law To or Murphy because they could
use help at those spots where they've already kind of
(42:45):
shored up corner and a few other needs. So if
Tennessee doesn't go offensive line like everybody's projecting, I could
see Tennessee going with an edge or defensive tackle and
it's not crazy for her.
Speaker 2 (42:58):
The I just ESPN bet Dallas Turner is minus one
fifty for this. I just I can't get over it.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
Like Dallas Turner again, six two six eighths two hundred
and forty seven pounds with an eighty eight percentile athletics score.
He's never at a PFF grade over eighty two, and
he's over eighty.
Speaker 2 (43:21):
One point seven. And he's a downhill rusher guy.
Speaker 3 (43:23):
Last year's pass rushing grade with seventy three point six
latus is ninety one flat like and again like I
get it with Turner. You know, he did have the
fifty five pressures last year eleven sacks.
Speaker 1 (43:36):
I get it.
Speaker 2 (43:38):
But to me, the utility, it's.
Speaker 3 (43:40):
It's just a bit, you know, one sided with Turner
and he needs to work on that technique. He needs
to have other stuff off that long arm. And I
wonder if it's the play strength is the reason that
he shirts going up against those offensive tackles, And then
you wonder going to the next level, is that going
to be an issue when you have to be tangling
with those guys every single time?
Speaker 2 (44:01):
He needs more tools in the toolbox.
Speaker 3 (44:04):
We'll see if the I mean, like the media clearly
disagrees with me, you know, like the Turner's been like
the edge one, and we'll see on draft day. But yeah,
if again, like if a lot of two his medicals
are fine, he would for sure be above it. I
also have Jared Verse above Dallas Turner. I don't think
that Verse will be the first defender off the board,
but his odds are for anyone interested is four fifty
(44:27):
to one.
Speaker 2 (44:28):
But I mean, like, you know another possibility.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
In terms of that, Yeah, I don't disagree, man. I
would say I'd be betting Verse if we had his
odds a little bit higher, like probably like plus six
hundred plus seven hundred. I think you could interest me
in that, like maybe a small smattering, but even that
I probably would in a perfect world to really lay
some coin on it, I'd want Verse like plus nine
(44:51):
hundred or plus one thousand, like quin Yon. But moving
over to the draft position prop so looking at weird
guys could go over on under a certain pick number, Dude,
this first one kind of sticks out to me. Brock
Bowers at eleven and a half, the under on the
eleven and a half, so basically saying the Jets or
(45:14):
whoever makes a trade with Minnesota at eleven. So I'm
looking at you Los Angeles Chargers, one of those teams
takes brock Bowers the under on eleven and a half.
We're getting plus money at in some books like plus
one sixty five. Yeah, buddy, you can interest me in that.
What are your thoughts?
Speaker 3 (45:37):
Yeah, I think I think i'd probably be with that
as well. The odds on that one have really you know,
of course it open house.
Speaker 1 (45:44):
Yeah, it opened a heavy juice on under ten and
a half. And now we're moving like, what what's.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
Changed with that?
Speaker 3 (45:51):
We have? We have gotten the one extra slot, you know,
to so for the trade down possibility, right, but even so,
you know, but the other thing that changed the odds
was there was some reports out of New York that
you know that they could be looking at offensive line
that maybe they weren't, you know, the brock Bowers wasn't
the fixed outcome that some people were you know, had
(46:14):
thought before. But you just have to think when they're
on the clock, Aaron Rodgers is around there, and then
thinking about the team and the window that they have
right now. Bowers would be an enormous upgrade at two
different spots there. They need a pass catching tight end
(46:35):
and they also need a starting slot both still like
I mean, however, you want to look at Bowers, plenty
of utility for a team like that, and in the
final years of Rogers' career. I think with it being
the eleven and a half with getting the one sixty five,
I get the risk on this one because he could
(46:56):
fall down. He could fall into the teams, absolutely, But
if you're getting the plus one sixty five and you
get that extra slot, I think there's enough value to
justify an under bet there.
Speaker 1 (47:07):
Yeah, I do too. And the other thing we alread
even talked about is what if you have a team,
like we're talking about the Minnesota draft spot. What if
you have the Chargers. If they don't select him, what
if another team comes up and gets him, Like we've
heard a lot of people like wanting to mock him
to Indy. Indy's right there in striking distance, Dude, they're
at fifteen, So I don't think it's also insane. Like
(47:28):
playing the range of outcomes here, You've got a lot
of outs with getting the extra slot, Like if this
was ten and a half, then I would disagree with it.
Then I wouldn't be betting this. But plus odds and
we got the pick moved up a little bit, so
you get two outs right there, and you get the
out of some team like Indy wants to go from
fifteen to eleven and take him. You're still getting the
(47:50):
under bet there, dude. All right, moving over to the
next one man, tarry On Arnold the under at sixteen
and a half. You can get plus money at plus
one fifteen on some books. I'm in on that, throwing
a little bit of coin at that. What are your
thoughts on there? I just think we have outs for
terryon Arnold, like Indeed has corner needs Denver could take him,
and then we're talking about Quinnon. If he goes top ten,
(48:11):
top eleven, then yeah, Terryon Arnold again talking about scarcity
with these guys cornerback, he could be the next guy.
And I'm not saying like I wish the odds were
a little bit higher on this, but what are your
thoughts on Terryon Arnold?
Speaker 3 (48:23):
Yeah, the Quinnon is is definitely gonna go above that.
So that sort of window there is where this bet
comes into play for Terry On.
Speaker 2 (48:32):
Is he gonna go in that.
Speaker 1 (48:34):
You know?
Speaker 2 (48:35):
Ten two?
Speaker 3 (48:36):
What is it?
Speaker 2 (48:38):
Sixteen range?
Speaker 3 (48:39):
I think that there's It's not my favorite one on
the board, but I could see sprinkling a little bit
on the under of this getting the plus one fifteen juice.
Speaker 1 (48:48):
And speaking of Quinnon again, if you're making a very
pro Quinyon case, or you're trying to hedge some of
these other corners, I would I do like the action
on him as far as like the under on thirteen
and a half again talking about if he goes to Atlanta,
he goes to a few of these other teams that
have corner needs. The under thirteen and a half you
can get plus money on some books a plus one twenty.
(49:11):
I kind of hopped over Nate Wiggins because I really
don't care, Like twenty six and a half, it's minus
odds on both sides. I'm just not betting that. But
what are your thoughts on Quinyon Quinyon that?
Speaker 2 (49:21):
That's a bet for me.
Speaker 3 (49:22):
Yes, under thirteen and a half, especially getting the plus odds.
I think that there is real value there. That's my
favorite so far that we've gone over Wiggins. That's right
on the line. That's a fair price. You could see
him going, you know, within a three to four band outcome.
Above that, you could see him going within a three
to four band outcome beneath that, but that is right
(49:44):
in play with where he's going to go, So.
Speaker 2 (49:47):
That would be a stay away.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
Yeah, and pretty much I'm staying away from the next
two bets too, like layout to Latu's under at eighteen
and a half again we've talked about him, is at
minus one fifteen if you want to bet the over,
but I would not be betting that at eighteen and
a half. You can get plus money on that. I'm
staying away from that because our position is we think
he's underrated, probably goes a little b higher than people think.
(50:10):
Same thing with Joe Alt. The under seven and a
half is that minus two fifty. What are your thoughts
any on a law to or Alt.
Speaker 3 (50:19):
Yeah, My thoughts on these on both lat Too and
Alt are if you want to bet, like if you're
bullish on those guys, there's better odds in the slot
market for Alt. You know, for instance, at the five
to one we talked about that earlier, where you'd get
nearly five to one on him. That's where I would
go as opposed to you know, if you go under
(50:41):
seven and a half, it's minus two fifty. To me,
that's it's almost cost prohibitive.
Speaker 2 (50:47):
To play that.
Speaker 3 (50:47):
I would more with him, either go with a specific
slot or a specific team so you can get it juiced,
because there's not a ton of possibilities obviously, when you're
talking top seven, it's only seven options and the the
top three teams are already out, so's it's limited ones
with lot two if you want to bet on him,
as opposed to doing the slot one here, where again
(51:10):
you have to pay the juice. On the other side,
I would do the you know, take a shot on
whether it's first defender or whatever. If they had modified
slot ones where you could toggle it and then you
could get the bigger juice. I would do that with
a lot two because again going back to with the
one unknowable with him, it's the medicals. If the medicals
are cleared, that's where he becomes in play to go
(51:32):
anywhere you know, top around the top ten, right outside
of it, and where he could be in play to
be the first defender off the board. But it's unknowable
if they got if team's got bad reports on that,
then it could go the other way. That's why I
would prefer to do the long wet my beak on
a long shot bet with lot two as opposed to
(51:52):
a bet like.
Speaker 1 (51:53):
De Yeah, I don't disagree, man, and just moving down
the board, I think for me, moving on the board,
I want to highlight a few of the ones that
stick out to me because a lot of these are
non bets for me. Brian Thomas under sixty and a
half at plus one forty, I'm in on that. My
last mock, I give him the indye at fifteen. I
think it's a very very realistic landing spot as well
(52:15):
as I think that it's in play for one of
these teams. I'm looking at you Buffalo to possibly trade
up and go after Brian Thomas. Looking at anything else,
I do think and I'm not betting this, but I
think it's very interesting and telling of the QB market
and stuff. Anybody betting that over four and a half
Michael Pennix is his over thirty two and a half,
(52:37):
so basically saying that he's not a first round pick
is is minus one ninety. So again, look where you're
placing your money people, But for me, I mean, look,
the only standout I bet left is the is the
Brian Thomas bet at the plus money. Really, the rest
of these a lot of these are stay away, but
(52:57):
anything else left on the board, Terry you right now for?
And what are your thoughts on Brian Thomas.
Speaker 3 (53:04):
The Brian Thomas one's interesting because yeah, I do think
that one comes down to Indy, And with Indy, it's
the three dimensional chess of what on day two, which
which receiver is gonna be there? What's the difference between
him and say Brian Thomas, and then the other position,
Let's say cornerback right, Let's say it's uh, Terry on Arnold.
(53:26):
What's the difference between Terry on Arnold and then when
our next pick on day two and what's the discrepancy
between the two. So you're playing some three dimensional chess there.
That's where they could end up deferring off of Brian Thomas.
But I think Brian Thomas is such a good fit
for for them, the deep ball guy with Anthony Richardson,
It's it's sort of perfect. And then you get the
(53:46):
spacing for for downs and Pittman and the run game
everything like that. But yeah, that's what it comes down to.
So I'd be okay with that one. Not my favorite
bet on the board because I could see that one
going either way, But I could. I wouldn't argue against
that one at all. I'm definitely you mentioned I'm fading Pennex,
(54:07):
fading Nicks at the odds that they're at Nicks as
twenty six and a half get out of here.
Speaker 2 (54:12):
Definitely going over on those ones.
Speaker 3 (54:15):
Just perusing a couple of these other ones, I think
you could probably comfortably bet the over on Jackson power
at Johnson at thirty two and a half there. You know,
earlier this process there was a lot of enthusiasm for him,
but there's been a lot of reports recently that looks
like he's going to get pushed out of the first round.
(54:36):
So I think that you could bet that one. J. J.
McCarthy at the five and a half. We have our
bets on on McCarthy and our portfolio at more juet
odds and that once.
Speaker 2 (54:48):
I probably stay away.
Speaker 3 (54:49):
From that one personally for me, if you want to
go a bit of a longer shot one that I
like a little bit more, Tyler Geydon at over twenty
nine and a half half.
Speaker 2 (55:00):
Some people like Tyler Geydon more than me.
Speaker 3 (55:03):
To me, he's a second round guy, you know, Will
a team take a shot on him on the in
the late first Yeah, maybe the physical tools are really good.
I definitely get it, But people need to keep in
mind again, the offensive tackle class is frigging stacked, and
it's stacked into day two. Why are you going like
(55:23):
in a regular tackle class, that kind of guy, that's
when he gets reached on in the first round.
Speaker 2 (55:29):
I don't underst like in this one. I don't understand
why you would do that.
Speaker 3 (55:33):
When you can get a guy like Patrick Paul in
the mid to late second round to come in and
play immediately, you're gonna reach on Tyler Guyden a round
before that.
Speaker 2 (55:44):
At twenty nine and a half. You can get on
the over.
Speaker 3 (55:46):
You can get plus two thirty at Caesars on the
over at Tyler Guiden getting better than two to one.
I will definitely take that. The other one I was
gonna say was Chop Robinson over twenty six and a half.
Speaker 2 (56:00):
I like Chop. I do.
Speaker 3 (56:04):
The pass rush, especially in the pressure rate, everything like that. However,
very short arms, very short arms, and he's not good
in run defense either. And the short arms thing it
manifests in a couple of different ways, even beyond the
obvious ones that are are statistical. He had a big
mistackle rate, which I think is in part attributable to
(56:25):
the tackle radius.
Speaker 2 (56:27):
And then the other thing.
Speaker 3 (56:28):
The past couple of years he had the bizarre thing
where the pressure rates were always insane, but the sack
the sacks weren't there with it. And you could argue
a little bit having a little bit of a smaller
fisher net to catch the fish is one of the
reasons that they're getting.
Speaker 2 (56:42):
Off the line.
Speaker 3 (56:44):
So again, I like the ability to generate the pressure
in the athleticism, But to me, that's a guy that
profiles generally as a guy that goes at the top
of the second as opposed to the late first And
at twenty six and a half, I'm going over on
that one.
Speaker 1 (57:01):
Yeah, I can definitely get down with that. My favorite
bet and the more that I thought about this that
you mentioned was the guit and over twenty andine and
a half, and I just think, like, with that bet, dude,
like you're just making a bet that, Okay, Green Bay
or Dallas, who both have offensive line needs, go with
Barton or Morgan or Memes or some combination of that.
And then we have teams at the end of the
(57:23):
first round taking tackles like Baltimore needs a write tackle,
San Fran, Kansas City. All of them need tackles. So
all you're doing is saying, Okay, Guiden makes it into
the first round, but he goes over and he goes
to Baltimore, Sam Fran or KC at plus money. Oh baby,
I'm so in on that. I'm adding that to the
betting card man. But look, this has been our NFL
(57:44):
Draft betting preview with Thorn and I again. Go check
out the Betting Pros app. You need and all the
odds again that we talked about on this entire show
can be found at bettingpros dot com slash draft odds.
Get into the prop pick challenge again. I don't love
the Betting prosapp. Go to bettingpros dot com slash draft,
click the button join the group. You need five bets
(58:06):
minimum to enter four and I will be back next
week to dive further and further into this NFL Draft class.
The closer we get to being live on YouTube for
Day one and Day two until then we're out of here.
Speaker 3 (58:20):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football Podcast.
Speaker 1 (58:24):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at
fantasy pros At.
Speaker 3 (58:34):
Subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasy pros
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations.
The Nikki Glaser Podcast
Every week comedian and infamous roaster Nikki Glaser provides a fun, fast-paced, and brutally honest look into current pop-culture and her own personal life.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.