September 12, 2023 • 44 mins
Bienvenidos a First Strike! The UFC returns to Las Vegas this week for Noche UFC!
The Women's Flyweight Championship is on the line as Alexa Grasso defends the belt against Valentina Shevchenko in a highly anticipated rematch.
Get full card analysis and breakdowns from your fight experts!
Dave Ross is joined this week by Nick Kalikas, Jordan Sherwood, Dan Vreeland, and Reed Kuhn!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Welcome to First Strike here on Visa and I'm your
host Dave Ross. For the next hour, we're gonna break
down note cha UFC right here at T Mobile Arena
in Las Vegas should be an incredible title bout as
we have a rematch at the top of one hundred
and twenty five pounds for the ladies. Alexa Grasso gonna
put her strap on the line for the first time
against Valentina Shipchenko, the former champion and once regarded as
(00:35):
the goat of this division. Can she regain her crown?
We're gonna have nickol kas Is gonna join us with
Jordan Sherwood, Dan Rieland and Reid Koon to break it
all down in this very hour. Let's look back to
what we saw at UFC two ninety three. Oh my goodness,
one of the biggest upsets in title about history. Yes,
Sean Stricklin, We've got two shawns now running divisions in
(00:57):
the UFC. Seawan Strickland bringing the Middle Eight Strap back
to the United States after getting a unanimous decision victory
over the former champ Israeltisignia in Australia. So the unthinkable
is now thinkable as Strickland is now the king of
the middleweight division. But without further ado, let's bring in
the man you can follow on X named at fight Odds.
(01:18):
He is, of course, Nick Khalkas.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Nick.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Great to have you back on the program. Before we
look ahead, let's look back very quickly. Strickland a five
dollars betting underdog against israel Oi Sonia. Did you see
this coming? I thought he might be live. I thought
it was mispriced a little bit, but didn't see a
domination for five rounds.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
I thought it was short. I thought the price was short.
I didn't give Strickland much.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Of a chance.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Boy, Tod, I ate my words for sure. Definitely humbling.
And you know what, hats off to Strickland, man. I
mean I knew from the first like two minutes of
that fight, honestly watching it, that he came in his
defense was good. He was pushing a pace O. I thought,
oh my god, this is going to be a little
bit more difficult than I thought. And then, of course,
just the way it went the rest of the way,
I still surprised. My jaw is still on the ground.
But again, you got to take your hat off to him, man.
(02:04):
He deserved every second of that win. Wow, I'm still shock,
though I'm right.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
There with it very quickly because this is what you
do and you're so good at it. If we don't
know what's going to be next for Strickland, right, maybe
it's an immediate rematch against Izzy. Maybe DDP gets in
there and gets a title shot. What number would you
look at in a rematch, because we're going to talk
about the rematch here with Schifcheko and Grasso in a second,
where would you align that fight? Does it pend depend
on where the fight takes place.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
I don't think it won't matter as much where the
fight takes place, to be honest with you, in this
situation is just I mean, everybody's gonna be kind of
still scratching their heads. I mean, obviously you got a
favor Iszy a little bit even in a rematch, because
you would think at that high level he would make
the adjustments needed and possibly get the W unless he's
just at that point of his career.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Yeah, you hate this, right, You hate to think that
possibly just.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Wasn't a great performance, and I think it's gonna be
fresh in people's mind. So I still think you got
to make easy a solid favor, but that being said,
it won't be even close to where it was last time.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
You're right, because you know, we hate to throw out
you don't even want to say like washed, but you know,
once you get to a certain point of your career,
father times undefeated. I don't think this is it for
Israel to sign you at the top of the middleweight division,
but it will be fascinating to see what happens with
that division. I think we just all assumed. I know
I did. And speaking about being on the wrong side,
I was on the wrong side last time with Chifchenko
(03:21):
against Alexa Grosso, and I thought maybe again the number
was too big. But now we have the rematch, and
what's fascinating is I remember Valentina the first time out
on fight day, Nick, you know this, she was ballooning
to eight nine dollars favorite over Alexa Grosso and then
the upset happens. We're talking about two the biggest upsets
from last week and then the last time these two
eighties fought. Now look at the pricing here. Chef Chenko
(03:44):
is still a favorite now as the you know, trying
to get her belt back. The champ though plus a
dollar forty here. This is at t Mobile, as I
mentioned off the top, and Nick, why I think that
is significant is because it is a bigger octagon, and
I think we think the betting market things that if
Grosso is to remain and still she's got to get
(04:05):
a takedown, does this fight have to play out similarly
in order for Grosso to keep her belt.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
I mean, look, she performed amazing last time. I mean,
she just pounced on that when she got the opportunity.
She pounced on that submission so quickly, and she has
that ability. She's getting better. We've seen in her progression
to get to this point, and she's now she's got
the belt, she's got the confidence, she has a win over.
I mean, honestly, she's definitely going to be a lot
more game. So the odds make sense to me that
it's going to be a lot tighter. I was hoping
(04:33):
that we would actually get a way better price on her.
Still like people thinking it was a flucish type of situation,
but that's not the case. A lot of people believe
she's live. I mean, I honestly think she's probably going
to get taken down again. So I think Shifchenko is
going to come in game plans more on the feat.
She was getting tagged up a little bit. She just
has to be more cautious. I mean, it's a winnable
fight for Schrifchenko still, but making no mistake, she's not
(04:53):
the same flighter she once was, even just a couple
of years ago, so she is kind of declining, but
that decline is still better than the majority of the
girls that are division. That's a crazy thing. So just
because she's taking a step back doesn't mean she's going
to lose this fight again. And Grosso's kind of trending up.
So for me, I think people are under estimated ship Chenko. Honestly,
the price might be a little bit short, but again
it's kind of one of those situations where I was
(05:15):
looking forward to maybe betting Grosso again because I think
she has the ability to win this fight again, but
the price is everything, and now at this point I
think is actually disrespectful toward Shipchenko a little bit.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
You know, that's fascinating, Nick, because I've been listening to
everybody in the MMA spades, and what I mean by
that is people that know like Daniel Cormier's of the
world and ex fighters that will tell you that a
lot of them are favoring Grosso in this rematch, and
I keep trying to get to the Shipchenko side thinking
the same thing you are, that maybe this price tag
is a little bit short on the woman that we
(05:46):
regarded not just at one hundred and twenty five pounds,
but we are still talking about even with the two
asses to Nunez as one of the greatest of all
time at anyway class. For any woman that's ever stepped
foot in the octagon, what does Shiftchenko have to do
differently in order to get the belt again?
Speaker 3 (06:02):
She just has to be a little bit more cautious
and not be I mean, she took a risk, you know,
and got caught in that situation. I mean she missed
kind of swung and missed sore to speaking that just
got you know. So this time, for sure, she's gonna
be a little bit more careful. She's not gonna be
as sloppy I think. And again she's just gonna have
to game plan and just be cautious and be a
little bit better defensively. But she's the type of fighter
that could do that. Her fight at Q is very smart.
(06:24):
I mean, she's great everywhere. The fight takes place, and
like you said, I do think she's the best female
fighter I've ever seen in my life. I mean, newon
As is up there for sure. Even with the losses
of the nude. As I've said a time and time again,
I still believe powper pounce if Chenko is the best
female fighter that I've seen. So it's kind of a
shame that she's taking a step back, but it halfens
to everybody, So this is good. I'm curious to see
how much she has left then tanking, if she can
(06:44):
redeem herself here in this.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
Spot, Nick, When you look at the total rounds prop here,
look at the juice at over four and a half
at my star fifty five, and yet I think the
thought process is that it would be grosso by sub
again if we were to go that way and hit
the ground. There sees a plus three fifty, the same
number that she can win a decision. Look at the
price on Chevchenko for decision plus a dollar seventy five.
(07:07):
So a fight that's juiced heavily towards that over leads
us towards a decision which could lead you to the
Shipchenko price tag. There are there any other ways that
you would attack this if you're looking at the former
champ side.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
Yeah, No, I think that she probably does win. I
mean she might have a chip on her shoulder, she
finished fights before her, but I think Grosseo is the
type of fighter that she could probably withstand even if
she's getting beat on the ground. I don't think she
gets finished on the ground. So I do think it's
correlated to Shiftchenk going over if it hits the scorecards.
And I think it is correlated to grosseling under again
because not just the submission game, I mean Russell again.
(07:41):
She's getting better on the feet, she's tagging her up
a little bit. I mean she's effective everywhere the fight
takes place, and she's dangerous, so I think that you
can't now d estimate her there. That's why it's correlated
to the Grossel one under and Shipchenk going over.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
You know, Nick, who am I to tell Shawn Shelby
and Dana White who they should schedule and at what venues?
But JDM, Jack Dell and Madelena not fighting in Australia.
I was a little surprised by that. But we get
him in the United States against Big Mouth and the
American here and Kevin Holland feels like a really intriguing fight.
Kevin Holland is the dog here in the comin event
(08:12):
at plus a dollar twenty four. Stylistically, you look at
the height advantage that Kevin has, but yet and a
big reach advantage there with eight inches, and yet JDM
is the small favorite at dollar forty eight? Is this
fight miss priced? Do do you think it's a priced accordingly?
Speaker 3 (08:30):
Well, I mean, honestly, Holland came out as a slate
favorite and then got flipped. Everybody's betting the Madelina side
and a lot of sharp action is hitting that side
as well. That's why the line turned to where it did.
And he actually keeps on coming in his way. I
get it a lot. I think a lot of people
are probably thinking this line is short because of his
last fight. It was more competitive than everybody anticipated, so
his stock dropped to the point where it's kind of short.
(08:51):
You know right now where it is. But that being said,
Kevin Holland is the toughest opponent that he's faced to date.
This is not going to be an easy fight. I
would not the chalk here and I've been a big
JDM supporter, I think he's great. I just think he's
not quite there yet, and a lot of people that
have that stock in him. I mean, Katie go out
here and maybe spark Holland to get a quick finish possibly.
I mean, he's got that kind of potential and that
(09:12):
kind of skill. But if he doesn't do that, if
this fight hits the scorecard, so Holland probably wins on
the cards, and Holland has the ability to maybe get
a submission or finish it in his own right, you
can't underestimate him there either. So for me, it's a
dog or pass situation. I mean, everybody bet this up.
I understand it. Maybe it is again we're maybe coming
HM out a little bit too much because of his
last performance. It will probably perform better. But that being said,
(09:33):
you're underestimating Kevin Holland here severely if you're betting than
Matt Aleena.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Side speaking of JDM, maybe a little bit too much
too soon. What about robl rosas Junior the youngster here
back in the octagon on a main card here, a
pretty big card too. With mite. UFC is going to
get a very high profile celebrating Mexican independence. Day, and
here he is at a seven dollars favorite against Terrence Mitchell.
What do we make of the eighteen year old against
(09:57):
the thirty three year old?
Speaker 3 (10:00):
I mean, honestly, russis junior. He was in a bad
spot last time. To me, I bet against him. I
had enough cash into ticketing against him. I think we're
going to see him, you know, getting back on track,
meaning get the momentum flowing again. He's this really solid fighter.
I just think he ran it to a difficult matchup
for him stylistically in that loss that he just recently took.
So for me, it's just one of those situations where
(10:20):
I think he bounces back here, looks impressive and keeps
his kind of momentum back on track and gets the
train rolling in the right direction. This kid is talented.
We cannot count him out. Look at the price tag.
It's there for a reason. I think he probably does
get us to the ground and finds a finish here
as well.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
But how do you tell an eighteen year old to
pace yourself?
Speaker 3 (10:36):
Yeah it's very hard, right, no doubt about it. But
he definitely has to get that under a control though
I'm sure they're working on it. You know there's no doubt.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
He just goes. You know, it's all gas, no breaks,
and sometimes even at eighteen you still need to worry
about that cardio a little bit. I see the hat
there UFC on the Line, Nick telling people where they
can see you and the shows that you guys have.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Yeah, we have a live episode actually coming your way
tomorrow which is Wednesday, three pm Pacific time, So make
sure you head over to the UFC Fight Pass and
check us out. Myself, Yanni, the Greek MITCHI Betts of course,
and Brenifice Scherald. We have a great show. We'll give
you all of our best bets and we'll give you
some more insights as far as the car goes this
weekend as well.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
You guys do have a great show, a great company
that you keep there at UFC on the Line, Nick,
always appreciate your time, my friend. Enjoy the fights this weekend.
We'll catch up again soon. Thanks, guys, enjoy the fights
there is everybody nick Les. Give him a follow on
X if you're on there at fight Odds. Okay, when
we come back, can I go to the Windy City.
I know Bears fans are still upset about their loss.
(11:34):
Let's talk some UFC with Jordan Sherwood.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Next.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
Here on first right, Draft Kings Sportsbook is giving you
(12:09):
plenty of ways to bet the UFC. Just download the
DraftKings Sportsbook Gap, You're going to be able to bet.
I'm more than just the main event. DraftKings is great odds.
I'm fight lines, total rounds and features for all MMA events.
Elgible restrictions to Apple. I see DraftKings dot Com. So
ask Sportsbook for all the terms and conditions. Dave Ross
back here at Circus Sportsbook in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada.
Now we go to the second city and catch up
(12:30):
with mmaficionado Jordan Sherwood. You can follow Jordan as I
do on x at Wood on ESPN one thousand. Jordan,
before we get to the fight game, how is Chicago
doing today? Because for those that don't know, it's a
fight show, We're not Bears. Just got humiliated at home
against Green Bay. How are you guys doing in Chicago?
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Yeah, it's not good. There's a lot of question marks
about this team in every facet of the game, from
head coach on down.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Is Justin Yields the guy.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Oh, there's a lot of worried fans out there, and look,
you know, you think you're optimistically about going to Tampa
to take on Baker Mayfield and the Boys, but they
just went up and beat Minnesota, So who knows. I
think maybe let's just say it's a week to week
league and we'll be feeling a lot better after Sunday
afternoon in Tampa.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
The Bears one in one.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
See, that's our football talk for the show. He's got
the Bears lapel. He has not given up Chicago. He
is still one of yours. Okay, let's get to some
of your picks that you like on this fight card.
And I like that you've got some fights here on
the undercard, and I want to get to one in particular,
Jasmine Jesuit Diavisius the Canadian against Tracy Cortes. Pretty evenly
lined fight here. Cortes right now, Bob minus a dollar
(13:43):
twenty two Jasmine basically even money on the comeback here?
What do you make of this fight here for the ladies.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I'm surprised actually the value that we're getting Tracy Cortes
at and I think it's because we haven't seen her frequently.
You know, she's only fought one or four times in
the last four years, so averaging about one fight per year.
But this is a woman now on a ten fight
win streak, including a victory over Aaron Blanchefield, which obviously,
as it continues to age, is ever more impressive and
(14:14):
has I think, of all the skill sets we're gonna
see take place in this matchup, the one advantage and
that's in the takedowns. If she remains off of her
back foot, if she doesn't get pressured like Jasmine likes
to do against her opponents, and someone in Jasmine who's
susceptible to the takedowns, I think that absolutely were in
(14:34):
a situation where Tracy Cortes can control this fight, work
the takedowns, and obviously, you know, register those points in
the judge's mind to get her hand raised via decision,
and that's how she wins fights too. I mean, we're
I'm not looking at an inside the distance here, play
or under you know, Tracy Cortes is a lady that
goes into judges' car cards eight of or ten wins
(14:55):
a come via decision. But I think that's the method
of victory. I think it's it's very plausible that's going
to happen, and I like the value. Will you have
her on a Tuesday?
Speaker 1 (15:03):
Now you have her for a decision at plus a
dollar forty, but remember you can just lay at a
dollar twenty two. Do you want to get cute with
that in case she does get something inside the distance
or do you think it's decision or bust and take
that plus money.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Look, I know we're going to get at some point
to the main event here, but I think that this
UFC note J fight card could could mean something special
to these you know, Mexican American fighters, these Hispanic fighters.
So we could see some finishes, some dramatic stuff. So
probably lay off of that. I think Tracy Cortes just
gets to win because there's enough value in her to
believe that she maybe she gets to finish via submission
(15:36):
or she gets her hand raised via the judges scorecards.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
All right, let's keep going on the undercard. I know
you've got to pick here on Charlie Campbell against Alex Reyes,
and right now Campbell rather sizable favorite here. What do
you make of this one? Are you looking to attack
it a different way and stay that instead of laying
that big number.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Yeah, a lot of unknown in this fact for sure.
Obviously Charlie Campbell, we're high on him, a lot of
reputable performances on regional circuit. He comes from the Ray
Longo this a Longo Sirah camp, which obviously produces a
lot of great fighters and Alex treads. I mean he
has not fought in six years. Like what I mean
you could do a lot in six years. I mean
(16:13):
six years ago, you know, I had one kid, I
was in Florida and Chicago wasn't even on the radar.
I mean, so much has had to have happened. And look,
yes he has had some fights get canceled. He obviously
has a lineage his older brother Dominic. You know, obviously
he's a very successful fighter.
Speaker 1 (16:30):
In the UFC.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
But look, six years is a lot to work on.
I think there could be some sort of a you know,
element of being overwhelmed. Campbell is a fast starter. He
hits like a truck and he's a finisher. So for
a little bit too risky for me to just say, hey,
money line on Campbell straight up, but I think he
he overwhelms ray As and we're going to play it
(16:52):
inside the distance in the under both on the Campbell.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Side six years ago. I was right there in Chicago
probably getting dunkin Donuts every day on Madison. You know
exactly where that is, Jordan. Okay, let's get to the
comine and the main event here on this card and
fascinating fights for different reasons. I believe when you look
at Kevin Holland and again JDM is going to be
matching up with here in the co main event. Holland
talks a big game, That's why he's got the nickname
(17:16):
Big Map, but he backs it up a lot of time.
Jack Della Matalana is now the now fighter right at
twenty seven, but it's not like Kevin Allen's thirty five.
He's just thirty. So this feels like a pivotal about
at one seventy. What do you make at Holland as
a dog.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, I think there's value there early in the week.
You know, look a Holland's not going to have to
contend with a rustler.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
That's what we've seen.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
Cause him issues in the past.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
Obviously, you think that the Hans at Schemaia fight, he
was completely overwhelmed. So this is going to be a
stand up affair his You know his athleticism, his power
has reached very difficult to model. Albeit JDM just was
in there with you know, athletic you know Long Weltway
and Randy Brown a couple of fights ago.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
But JDM did not look good time out.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
And you know, obviously, as you know, surprise a lot
of people on short notice taking that fight and going
to the judges' scorecross, maybe even winning to fight. But
I think Hollin carries, you know, a surprising power for
his frame, and I think it's going to be a
lot to deal with for JDM. So I think at
plus money right now, Kevin Howard is certainly worth a
(18:20):
shot because in my mind, Kevin Holland has been in
there with better fighters and JDM has not.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
What's interesting too, when you look at the prop side, okay,
it is juice heavily to the under in this potential
three round CO main event here to a doubt forty five.
So if we think there's finishing potential, the KO prop
for JDM is plus a dollar eighty five. The subprop
at five to one for Kevin Allen. We've seen him
do that from time to time. Would would Kevin Holland
be more apt to take the fight down to the ground,
(18:48):
ironically in a matchup of strikers, as we think it's
going to play out.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
I mean, look, I think you obviously know that JDM
strength is going to be in the stand up, but
I don't. I don't agree with the finish this one.
I've actually leaned more towards the over this just being
a stand up fight kind of a kickboxing match. Holland
scoring some more points with a bevy of strength. Maybe
he gets a take down at some point to warn
her a favor in the judges scorecards, But I'm not
(19:14):
seeing a finish at least this early in fight week,
all right, So.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
You might get that plus money there, you're picking up
what Jordan's putting down at over two and a half
rounds at plus a dollar fifteen. And again, if you
like to fight, just go to the distance and not
even pick a winner, you can get over dollar thirty
I'm seeing right now on the screen. So maybe some
value there for the fight to go all three and
what we think will be a stand up affair. I
think we think in the main event in a rematch
(19:39):
here for the one hundred and twenty five pounds strap
that Valentine of Chevchenko would like to keep this fight
standing after what we saw the first time around against
against Alexa Grosso, now the champion. But Jordan, the fascinating
thing for me is Valentina is not inept on her back.
It was just that Grosso when she saw her opportunity,
seized it and so fuck in that finish and it
(20:01):
was almost like what hit Valentina? What do you make
of the rematch here and now? Is Valentina fearful of
a takedown in this rematch? I you know, I don't
think it's fearful.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
I think it's knowing that if this fight goes to
the ground, she could be in trouble. I think there
was a comfortability factor as a dominating champion that she's
just going to be able to dictate wherever the fight goes.
Against Alexa Grosso the first time out. That's not the
case now. I mean, look at the price on Valentina
chertanko dollar fifty seven prior to that minus six hundred,
minus five hundred, minus twelve fifty, thirteen hundred, eleven hundred.
(20:35):
Like you know, obviously there's a lot of respect for
the current champion, Alexa Grosso. She pulled off the upset.
But you know, this is similar to what we talked
about with John Jones making his heavyweightweight debut with Cyril Gohn.
There's tremendous value in my opinion, for Valentina Chertanko at
this price as it currently stands.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
She's well versed everywhere.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
It might have been just you know, last of days
ago approach as a dominating champion. She's going to be
ready and she's going to have to because Alexa Grosslffice
is going to carry that momentum of the UFC notesche
that I think is going to be favored in the
crowd like these Mexican American fighters, these Latin fighters are
going to feel that and want to, you know, live
up to the moment that I think chef Chenko is
ready to reclaim her title, you know.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
And I don't know how much it plays into the
in the fighter's mentality, but I'm curious, Jordan, from a
betting perspective, if you think it factors in. When we
saw Israel Asnia lose last week to Sean Strickland, the
debate was is he the greatest middleweight? I don't know
if that factors in, but if Chefchenko wants to get
back to I mean, I think she looks at herself
and says, I'm still the best. At one hundred and
twenty five, I was arguably one of the best female
(21:36):
fighters ever in the history of the UFC. Does she
look for a finish to try to reestablish herself. Could
you see an inside the distance prop possibly playing out
for Schipchenko or do you think she doesn't care about
that and she's just worried about winning, whether it's a
five round decision and getting that strap back.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
We look, there's a lots of legacy, there's a lots
of big time fights, you know. I think we were
talking about again it's Talia Santo. Chipchenko had an opportunity
maybe to dominate her and then get a man in
Nunia is in.
Speaker 1 (22:05):
A trilogy fight.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
So I do believe, yes, Dave, there is something to
if chip Chankle can not only go out there and
win the fight, but winning impressively inside the distance. Albeit
the other side of the coin is Sean Stricklin had
the more impressive victory, not in Finnish but in a
five round dominating performance a cons there's no lot of sonia,
so you know, I think it depends on what side
of the argument you're on. Either way, I think Schipchankle
(22:27):
reclaims the title.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
Jordan Sherwood is the definition of a pro. As sad
as he is about his bears, he still comes on
this program and does a fine job breaking down the fights. Jordan,
enjoy the fights and the football this weekend. We'll see
you next week here on First Trike, we're shipping up
the Boston next with Dan. Everyone, come on back. First
Strike on Decon starts your morning with Easton Daily Morning Mets,
(23:12):
Josh Applebaum gives you every piece of info you need
to be ready for betting the day's biggest games in
just fifteen minutes. He discusses the line move injuries, and
what you need to be looking at before you place
those wagers. So make the Vson Daily Morning Bets podcast
part of your morning routine. Download and subscribe wherever you
get your podcast. We're shipping up to Boston now with
Dan Rieland. He is a writer at Gambling Podcast. Also,
(23:36):
I have to put my glasses so on because there's
so many things. K Side Press, host of Top Turtle
Mma and SGPN MMA pods. The business Man in mma
is Daniel Freeland. You can follow him on X as
I do at Gumbi Vreeland as well. Dan. You know,
we like to start off with this each and every week,
your favorite fight to watch, maybe not to wager on,
(23:57):
and then conversely, your favorite fight to wager on.
Speaker 5 (24:01):
I'm really excited about the Jack Della Medeleina versus Kevin
Holland fight. I think that's gonna be absolute fireworks. Nobody
wants to grapple in that fight, and I appreciate that,
so I'm most excited about that one. The one I'm
most excited I'm wagering on is I actually like Jazmine
Jesuitavissius quite a bit against Tracy Cortez.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
She's coming in right now.
Speaker 5 (24:20):
I think I saw even money she was posted at
most recently. She's dipped down into the plus a couple
of times, and people have had Tracy Cortez and the negative.
But I really think the physicality is going to be
really tricky for Tracy Cortez. She showed how physical she
could be last time out against Miranda Maverick, and if
you can be physical with Miranda Maverick, you could be
physical with just about anybody in that flyweight division.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
Plus.
Speaker 5 (24:42):
I think the reach for Jesuita Vissius plays well, so
the fact that you're getting plus money on her again
somebody who's had a little bit of a layoff in
Tracy Cortez.
Speaker 1 (24:49):
I like Jaesuita Vissius quite a bit. I know you're
in Boston and I know you like Jazzy Jay. Is
there a Canadian bias that I sense a little bit
with some of you fights? Well, actually, it's funny you
mentioned that.
Speaker 5 (24:59):
So on the m M, A gambling podcast on the
Sports Gambling podcast Network is Canadian. However, he fades all
the Canadians. I play all the Canadians, So there is
a little bit of a Canadian by.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
I actually like the fashion now a lot. Do you
worry though, again, it's notese UFC. It is gonna be
right here in t mobile Rina in Las Vegas, and
we get it. We're celebrating Mexican Independence Day. Do you
worry about some of these fights when they hit the cards.
I mean, it's not like you're going to Australia and
yet Sean Strickland still want a decision against Israel Asania
in Australia. Do you do you worry about that at all,
(25:33):
because you know the crowd is going to be raucus
here in Vegas.
Speaker 5 (25:36):
Yeah, I think that.
Speaker 4 (25:37):
More than anything.
Speaker 5 (25:38):
If you're worrying about anything, you worry about the fighters
getting hyped up, because the fact of the matter is,
I've even talked to some of these Mexican fighters on
the card, like I talked to Padilla, Fernando Padilla, and
like they are jacked up for a card that is
filled with Mexican fighters. So, like you, you might worry
about that a little bit. But as far as the scorecards,
I think you know, the Vegas Commission is usually one
(25:59):
of the better ones. You know, It's not, like I say,
every time, it's not Texas, So I try not to
worry too much about what the scorecards will look like.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
I think you nailed it though, on the head that
you know that people that don't know what adrenaline dump is.
It's a real thing. And sometimes, as you mentioned, sometimes
you want to put on such a big show. It
is a big card. It is t Mobile Arena, It's
not Apex. So I do worry a little bit about that.
You mentioned Padia here a big favorite against Kyle Nelson,
What are you making Fernando's mentality coming into this fight
after talking to the fighter. Right now, he's over about
(26:28):
a two to fifty betting favorite.
Speaker 5 (26:30):
I actually think the negative two to fifty is a
little wide. And I think Kyle Nelson is kind of
being looked down upon here, and I'm not quite sure why.
I guess early in his career he had a couple
of bad performances. I do really think Padilla is gonna
win here because I like his length, I like his power.
The way he knocked up Julian to Rosa was really
impressive to me. But I just can't lay that kind
of chalk on him. I think negative two fifties too wide.
(26:52):
If I were to look for a place where I
could like Padia and I could think that Padilla was
going to win this fight, I would probably look for
the ko prop. I think Nelson is hitable. While he
has been durable in the past, I don't think he's
faced anybody who can hit quite like Padilla can. And look,
Padilla went in there and knocked out Julian Rosa, a
guy who from time to time has shown pretty decent
(27:12):
chin although he's been knocked out once or twice. But
like I think the way he knocked him out, the
viciousness the way he knocked him out, and that length
I think is going to be a problem for Kyle Nelson.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
So I like the ko.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
Prop there plus at dour sixty five to dance point
there instead of laying the two point fifty plus go
plus at dollar sixty five to get the knockout if
he's going to get that method of victory. A fight
that I haven't discussed yet here in the show, and
I really want to and I want to get your
thoughts on it is Roman Kopolov against Josh Fremd. Interesting
fight for me. I was a little surprised when I
see Kapolov as almost asiz as a four hour betting favorite.
(27:44):
Do you think this is priced accordingly? Three years older
here one inch reach advantage for Fremd? Is the dog
live to you at all? Here?
Speaker 2 (27:52):
You know?
Speaker 5 (27:52):
Again, this is another one of those ones where I
think the line is just a little bit too wide,
and I'd have to try to find some other avenues
to that. You know, I might like copy off inside
the distance or something like that. But I do really
think he's got so many advantages over Fromimed. He's another
guy who I actually thought was gonna be undervalued because
of his early performances in the UFC. You know, he
kicked off his career in that two fight losing streak,
(28:13):
and I thought for sure people would be writing him off.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Since then, he's looked amazing.
Speaker 5 (28:17):
His hands are so fast, and I'd really worry about
that with Josh Frent because while frem can slow the
fight down and get to the wrestling and stuff like that,
he has a trouble wrestling guys who are like particularly strong,
Like you know, I think about the Treyhon Gore fight.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
If he can't.
Speaker 5 (28:32):
Wrestle with Treychon Gore and he winds up getting out
muscled in that one, I really don't like his odds
to wrestle Copyloft. So I think Copylof with his defensive
wrestling is gonna be enough. And man, I think he's
gonna be so much faster on.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
The field, you know, outside of Rylan Rossas Junior being
the biggest favorite on the card. The other one, speaking
of wide numbers, here, it's Loopy and Lapita Godinez is
back in there against at least Reid and Lupy is
a big favorite over a fort dollar betting favorite. Right now,
she is minus four twenty five. The least come back
there is plus three thirty. Should she be this big
a favorite, I think so. You know, I think Loopy is.
Speaker 5 (29:08):
I mean, first of all, the pace she puts on
I really really like that about her. Yeah, I also
like the way she's brought the wrestling game in And
the thing about Alas Reid is in fights where Reid
has been the worst of the two wrestlers of the
worst against the cage, she has a faredwell. You know,
you can look back at all of her wins and
all of her losses in fights where she could win
that clinch battle she won, in fights she couldn't win
(29:30):
that clinch battle she lost. So, you know, I think
with the fact that Loopy comes from that background where
she's got, you know, a family's worth of wrestlers she's
working with, right, like both of her sisters are like
Canadian national team wrestlers, I think she's gonna have that
innate advantage there, and I think that that's enough for
me to favor Read and not be able to draw
a path to victory for.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
He now in a three round fight here potentially, do
you see finishing potential for Loopy or do you think
all right? Because and right now, if you want her
by decision, it's plus a dollar twenty, so you can
get plus money on Loopy. If she goes the distance,
the sub price plus a dollar ninety. So those are
the two more likely pathways to victory. Do you favor
one over the other?
Speaker 5 (30:11):
Yeah, I think I'm gonna favor the decision prop. At
least Reid has showed she's pretty durable. You know, I
don't necessarily think she's the best fighter in the world.
Like I said, it pretty much comes down to when
she doesn't have a physicality advantage, she loses that fight.
But like you know, she looked durable against Giney Fry,
She looked durable against Mellie Martinez. She like took punches
from both of them. Now, granted the fight she lost,
(30:33):
she did get really naked choked by woman Luca Boome.
She got you know, elbowed out by Sam Hughes, so
like that finishes there, But most of those were late
in the fight and looked like she was getting exhausted.
While Lupy does put a pace on people.
Speaker 4 (30:45):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (30:46):
Necessarily that she looks for the finish in the same way,
So I think loopy by decision is probably the way
I'd look for.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Value on that one plus a dollar twenty. I wonder again,
how do you tell eighteen year olds to pace themselves
with ravl Ross Junior in here against Terrence Smith. This
should be a perfect matchup for Raoul being on the
main card at a big time fight night like this,
but he's still eighteen. We saw what happened the last
time he went out. Now we're gonna lay seven dollars
in the kid. Are you still willing to do that
(31:12):
after what you saw last time out?
Speaker 5 (31:14):
Well, I'm gonna take the subprop first of all, and
probably once the the odds come out a little bit
later in the week, I'm gonna take the sub in
the first round prop. Because the thing is is Terrence
Mitchell is a gift wrap type matchup here for Rau
Roasas Junior. Because while Raul Roasas, like you said, he
kind of got too excited in his last fight and
he ran out of gas against Sea Rod, Sea Rod
(31:34):
is a lot better of a grappler than Terence Mitchell.
Terrence Mitchell. The book's been out on him since he
was on the regional scene. Is he's got no wrestling
defense from a grappling standpoint, good jiu jitsu. You know,
he could box a little bit. He's long, you know,
he's long. That gives people trouble all the time. But
he's on his back almost immediately in every single fight.
And with the way that Rosas moves through his paces
(31:55):
and moves through his passes, I think he winds up
with a submission, you know, two minutes into this fight
minus sixty just for any time sub but that first
round sub that's gonna be juicy plus money right there.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
Okay, let's get to the main event here. Alexa Grassos
Grasso is now the champ against the former goat. I
don't know if she's still the goat Valentino Shipchenko, but
I think she'd like to get back to goat status
at one twenty five. Do you say and Still or
Anne new once again?
Speaker 4 (32:22):
I think I'm gonna say and Still.
Speaker 5 (32:24):
You know, I like fighters in rematches kind of all
the time. You know, the stats are kind of out there.
It's hard to beat a guy after they just beat you.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Hm.
Speaker 5 (32:31):
And also there's not really anything fluky about her win, right,
Like you know, you you looked at the Israeli Desagannya
versus Shan Strickland fight and you might say, look, if
he didn't look himself, he looks slow. You know, when
was he ever the guy who is worse at cutting
off angles? Like there's lots of fluky things there. In
the Alexa Grosso fight, she just looked better all the time.
She's always looked like a fast striker. She looked like
she's added some wrestling to her game and some grappling
(32:54):
to her game. That makes her, you know, a little
bit more well rounded. I think she's gonna be the faster,
sharper fighter than chef Schenko. In the fact that she's
now coming in on plus money makes me all the
more willing to play that.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
I used to say this all the time when it
came to Evander Holyfield against Mike Tyson. I don't know
what would be different. They fought twice, Tyson lost twice.
I think they fought ten times. He might have lost
ten times. Fascinating to see if Grosso is now the
kryptonite to Valentin if Shipchenko great stuff. As always, Dan
enjoyed Boston. I'm assuming still hot up there. Oh yeah,
very hot, sweltering hot. Wait you have it? Where's your
(33:27):
JDM put? Can we see the jdmro there?
Speaker 5 (33:30):
We got the crooked nose looking down upon us today.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
So you're taking JDM over Kevin Holly A sports I am.
Speaker 5 (33:35):
I liked it better when it was you know, plus
one hundred negative one fifthy'll do?
Speaker 2 (33:39):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (33:40):
I knew You're still on the JDM side.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
Damn.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
Appreciate you as always my friend. Going to Washington, DC
next and you come back with us here on first.
Speaker 6 (33:46):
Right, we roll on this edition of First Trike.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
Dave Ross here in Las Vegas. Go out to Washington,
d C. Catch up with Riekoon. You can follow him
on Twitter as I do at Fight Nomics. He is
the author of a book of the same name, read
we missed You last week for USC two ninety three.
But there was a rumor floating around that our producer
extraordinaire Britton has came out to visit you in DC
and then you had an elbow injury. Were you guys
rolling on the mat? Was there any taekwondo? Was there
(34:36):
any any jiu jitsu going play? How did you get hurt.
Speaker 7 (34:40):
It could have been just reaching the top shelf, because
you know when I have guests here, I always go
to the top shelf. They always get the best of
what I have, So that might have been in just
reaching for a Scotch bottle.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
That's it, you get the good stuff. Britain. You showed
him a good time with that good stuff off the
top shelf. We appreciated here at First Strike. I was
watching on Twitter today on X and I saw your
tweet come out about rematches, and obviously in the main
event here in Las Vegas this weekend we have a
pretty tantalizing rematch with Alexra Grosso against Valentine of Shipchenko.
And I think the point, if I'm getting it right
(35:12):
from the point of your tweet, was you look at
the numbers that Valentina has compiled in her career, and
they are that's why she's regarded as possibly the goat.
But now you've hit that marker of thirty five years
of age. How do you quantify the data that she's
compiled versus where she might be now as a fighter.
Speaker 4 (35:34):
Well, obviously age is an important number to my models.
Speaker 7 (35:37):
It was a heavy focus in the book that I wrote,
So yeah, that is something I'm aware of, and the
models you take that into account. They're looking for when
people might be getting a little too high, and that's
introducing risk.
Speaker 4 (35:50):
However, I will say her career as impressive as it is.
Speaker 7 (35:54):
She has fought some of the best of the best,
including Amanda Unitez and gone five rounds with her. But
what I see jumping off the page is that Shavshchenko
is very hard to hit, and that is a common
element of a lot of longtime champions because they don't
get that cumulative damage the way a sloppier fighter might get.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
And that's what we saw in the first fight.
Speaker 7 (36:15):
She was actually i think winning round to round and
not getting a whole lot of damage.
Speaker 4 (36:20):
It was the sudden submission.
Speaker 7 (36:21):
I mean, it really was surprising when it happened because
Grasso was losing that fight and then all of a
sudden was over.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
And that's what's impressive.
Speaker 7 (36:28):
And so obviously we're seeing the odds swing heavily the
other way, not just on the opening line this time around,
but even on the what's going to be the closing line,
Like we're still seeing some backers on Grasso push that
price down, and so I actually don't know where I'm
going to land.
Speaker 4 (36:46):
I think the.
Speaker 7 (36:47):
Logic still says it's Shavshenko is a logical favorite. She
should be winning round to round. But is she now
more vulnerable? Is she making mistakes? Are people catching up
with her game? Find those holes, finding those moments? That's
a concern. I did make money on Grasso last time.
That does not mean I'm necessarily going to better this time.
(37:07):
I got to see where the prices land.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
By the way, I love the ubertail to say that
you do and really introduced to the sport years ago.
Here with your models and the checks do go to
Chevchenko's side with the one huge check being aged, and
that Grosso is thirty and as you allude to with
Chefcheko being thirty five, would she have to do something
differently in your eyes to regain it or more of
the same and just avoid being caught because once Grosso
(37:31):
did get that opportunity boom, she did not let that
pass by.
Speaker 7 (37:36):
Now that's one of those out of the cage factors
that is not in the models, but I accept that
it is real. You know, momentum does count. Confidence is
important in this game. We just don't have a way
to quantify that necessarily in the models. And here Schevchenko
is getting shocked by everyone in a massive upset. That's
got to hurt your confidence. And Grasso, on the other hand,
she has now proven that she can do it, So
(37:57):
maybe she fights more aggressively than last. Maybe we see
her a little bit better in the stand up, willing
to take some shots. Chefshenko is not really a power striker,
she's more of a point striker. She's very technically sound.
So if Grasso is willing to be more aggressive, she
might be able to close that distance a little bit
more often and that might open up opportunities. But again,
like this is not something I can quantify, It's just
(38:19):
something I do accept as a reality.
Speaker 4 (38:21):
And that age is an important number.
Speaker 7 (38:23):
And that's where I think the models are currently falling
very close to where I'm going to go on this one,
and it's probably going to come down to where the
prices land on Friday.
Speaker 1 (38:31):
And again, when you look at the total rounds and
the total rounds prop is set at four and a half,
juice heavily to the overread at minus a dollar fifty
five even just for the fight to go the distance
without picking a winner. It's minus a dollar forty, so
that at least the odds makers are saying there's not
a lot of finishing potential. We did see a finished
last time out. Chef Chekos had finishes in the past,
(38:52):
right obviously, I was there in Chicago the head kick
herd round Chicago when she knocked out Jessica I years ago.
Is there finishing potential in your estimation from what the
model show or is it just too hard to quantify
because we know that Schifchiko probably doesn't want to get
engaged that much and make this a points fight.
Speaker 7 (39:09):
I think if there is a finish, it's probably more
likely to be a submission. Both girls are very good
with submissions. They have them, they've used them, and I
think they are going to even themselves out on the feet.
I see Shipshenko trying to score the points, Grasso trying
to be a little bit more aggressive. It's the submissions
that interest me the most. I think the value on
an over under is tough because if you're taking the over,
(39:32):
you're counting on Shibschenko probably making this a more boring fight.
But if you're going the under, both sides have finishing
potential with submissions. So if there's any value, it might
be on the under. I mean go contrarian when it
comes to a movement like that, everybody thinks this is
going to go to the cards.
Speaker 4 (39:48):
The value is probably plus money on the under.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
We've seen the comin event here between Kevin Allen and
Jack Della Medeleana JDM. A flip of the favorites, right.
It opened up with Holland being the favorite, and now
it's really flipped to JDM being a solid favorite almost
a dollar fifty in this co main event. Surprises me
a little bit, and I get it the love for
JDM out there. The Australian based fighter, very very popular
(40:11):
fighter and very dynamic fighter. But it's not like Kevin
Holland is some old washed thirty fight. I mean he's
still thirty. You can make the case for his athletic prime.
I know he flirted with retirement. That always is a
bit of a concern, but properly focused Kevin Holland. Do
you think there's value here in the dog?
Speaker 7 (40:29):
Yeah, if Kevin Holland is the dog, it's hard for
me to keep track who's the dog at this moment.
I'm with Kevin Holland here he is going to look
huge in the cage with JDM massive size difference, one
of the longest reaches in the UFC let alone at welterweight,
and so Holland has that advantage.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
And JDM is very aggressive.
Speaker 7 (40:48):
He uses a very high piece of strikes and that
means he's going to be blasting forward. And so that
gives Kevin Holland the option of do I counter, do
I find the chin, which he is good at doing,
especially with that range, or does he take him down?
And so I think on the ground the submissions are
also interesting. I just give Kevin Holland a little bit
of an edge on both levels here and then sprinkle
(41:11):
in the top. He has way better opponents to date.
Speaker 4 (41:14):
JDM.
Speaker 7 (41:15):
You know, he barely he got out of a split
decision in his last outing. Meanwhile, Kevin Holland is over
there submitting Mike chiesa way more impressive, so that momentum
is behind Kevin Holland. So I think there's enough stacking
up where on a coin flip, I'm gonna go with
Kevin Holland.
Speaker 1 (41:29):
I'm right there within that subprop and it jumped off
the page to me at five to one for Kevin
Holland because again you would think, are these going to
be guys that stand in trade? You see, if he
gets in a clinch, you could see something maybe a
standing giatsin who knows, but it does feel with that
height and reach advantage, there's a lot of ways that
Kevin Holland can go if he doesn't have to fear
the takedown. And JDM is not gonna be looking for
a takedown, correct.
Speaker 4 (41:51):
Unlikely he doesn't choose to go to the ground.
Speaker 7 (41:53):
He has a couple takedown attempts in his entire career,
not many, And yeah, I think this is Holland on.
Speaker 1 (42:00):
Yeah, I'm right there with you in that evaluation. I
want to get to a fight earlier in the car
that you might have some info on that data points
to maybe Tracy Cortez over Jazzy Jay Jasmine Jazzit Divisious here.
What do you make of Cortez? We don't see her
very often. Jesse Divicious has been much more active. But
what are the numbers showing you?
Speaker 7 (42:20):
Yeah, technically the same sample size of sixty minutes, But
you're right, I think one of them has been more
active more recently.
Speaker 4 (42:26):
Cortes. She's the younger.
Speaker 7 (42:28):
Fighter, and there are a couple edges that I see,
and in this one is another fight that is going
to be very close to a coin flip in terms
of the line, and therefore it gives us an even read.
You know, if you have a lean one way or
the other on a coin flip, you go with the lien,
and the lien here is with Cortez. I think she
might be a slight favorite, and that's okay. I do
see her being a little bit more technical on the feet.
(42:48):
She is more accurate but also more evasive. That's a
nice combination to have. That means her striking exchange, she
should be landing more strikes, and when you look at Jasmine,
her strike differential is ex very negative. She eats a
lot of punches before she lands one. And so I
do think that those points are going to add up
for Tracy Cortez. And then you factor in the ground game.
(43:08):
Both have been good on the ground, but Cortes is
much more reliant on her ground game, more aggressive. She
tends to advance position more often and stays in control
more often. She's found back control a few times, So
add up those factors and that gives me a lean
on the ground as well towards Cortes. So yeah, I'm
seeing it as close. But I'm also seeing edges down
the board for one side, and I'm going to.
Speaker 1 (43:30):
Go that way. Got about it minutes ago. Let's get
to one more lady's fight here that you might have
some data on. Lupy Gadenez is a huge favorite over
four dollars betting favorite against a lease read. It feels
like the betting market is saying this is a whitewash.
Is there any chance for an upset from Alease Reid?
Speaker 4 (43:47):
Yeah that you know.
Speaker 7 (43:48):
It's the same thing with you know, Chevshenko and Grasso
last time.
Speaker 4 (43:51):
It's the same thing with Izzy and Strickland this time.
Speaker 7 (43:54):
When the models are run, they're looking at the market
implied win probability. And while I admit that goodin As
is the justifiable favorite, her probability is coming out on
the side of saying, hey, sprinkle a little bit on.
Speaker 4 (44:06):
The least read.
Speaker 7 (44:07):
She's still a live dog even at long odds. In
the long run, I do know that these bets do
pan out. Even though I'm saying I expect the favorite
to win, there's a value on the dog, so this
would be a small value play on a long line.
I'm not going to get two bet out of shape.
My money will be made in other fights. But yeah,
there might be some value there. We'll see where it lands.
Speaker 1 (44:28):
There is, everybody, and the one and only redcoon who
entertained our Britton hell hes with top shelf stuff above
you what you see over Reid's heead right now read
appreciate you as always, my friend. Enjoy the fights. We'll
catch up again next week. All right, everybody, enjoy this
fight card here in Las Vegas, and we'll see if
back here. First Strike on vs and these which Betting
Network
Welcome to First Strike here on Visa and I'm your
host Dave Ross. For the next hour, we're gonna break
down note cha UFC right here at T Mobile Arena
in Las Vegas should be an incredible title bout as
we have a rematch at the top of one hundred
and twenty five pounds for the ladies. Alexa Grasso gonna
put her strap on the line for the first time
against Valentina Shipchenko, the former champion and once regarded as
(00:35):
the goat of this division. Can she regain her crown?
We're gonna have nickol kas Is gonna join us with
Jordan Sherwood, Dan Rieland and Reid Koon to break it
all down in this very hour. Let's look back to
what we saw at UFC two ninety three. Oh my goodness,
one of the biggest upsets in title about history. Yes,
Sean Stricklin, We've got two shawns now running divisions in
(00:57):
the UFC. Seawan Strickland bringing the Middle Eight Strap back
to the United States after getting a unanimous decision victory
over the former champ Israeltisignia in Australia. So the unthinkable
is now thinkable as Strickland is now the king of
the middleweight division. But without further ado, let's bring in
the man you can follow on X named at fight Odds.
(01:18):
He is, of course, Nick Khalkas.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Nick.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Great to have you back on the program. Before we
look ahead, let's look back very quickly. Strickland a five
dollars betting underdog against israel Oi Sonia. Did you see
this coming? I thought he might be live. I thought
it was mispriced a little bit, but didn't see a
domination for five rounds.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
I thought it was short. I thought the price was short.
I didn't give Strickland much.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Of a chance.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Boy, Tod, I ate my words for sure. Definitely humbling.
And you know what, hats off to Strickland, man. I
mean I knew from the first like two minutes of
that fight, honestly watching it, that he came in his
defense was good. He was pushing a pace O. I thought,
oh my god, this is going to be a little
bit more difficult than I thought. And then, of course,
just the way it went the rest of the way,
I still surprised. My jaw is still on the ground.
But again, you got to take your hat off to him, man.
(02:04):
He deserved every second of that win. Wow, I'm still shock,
though I'm right.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
There with it very quickly because this is what you
do and you're so good at it. If we don't
know what's going to be next for Strickland, right, maybe
it's an immediate rematch against Izzy. Maybe DDP gets in
there and gets a title shot. What number would you
look at in a rematch, because we're going to talk
about the rematch here with Schifcheko and Grasso in a second,
where would you align that fight? Does it pend depend
on where the fight takes place.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
I don't think it won't matter as much where the
fight takes place, to be honest with you, in this
situation is just I mean, everybody's gonna be kind of
still scratching their heads. I mean, obviously you got a
favor Iszy a little bit even in a rematch, because
you would think at that high level he would make
the adjustments needed and possibly get the W unless he's
just at that point of his career.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Yeah, you hate this, right, You hate to think that
possibly just.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Wasn't a great performance, and I think it's gonna be
fresh in people's mind. So I still think you got
to make easy a solid favor, but that being said,
it won't be even close to where it was last time.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
You're right, because you know, we hate to throw out
you don't even want to say like washed, but you know,
once you get to a certain point of your career,
father times undefeated. I don't think this is it for
Israel to sign you at the top of the middleweight division,
but it will be fascinating to see what happens with
that division. I think we just all assumed. I know
I did. And speaking about being on the wrong side,
I was on the wrong side last time with Chifchenko
(03:21):
against Alexa Grosso, and I thought maybe again the number
was too big. But now we have the rematch, and
what's fascinating is I remember Valentina the first time out
on fight day, Nick, you know this, she was ballooning
to eight nine dollars favorite over Alexa Grosso and then
the upset happens. We're talking about two the biggest upsets
from last week and then the last time these two
eighties fought. Now look at the pricing here. Chef Chenko
(03:44):
is still a favorite now as the you know, trying
to get her belt back. The champ though plus a
dollar forty here. This is at t Mobile, as I
mentioned off the top, and Nick, why I think that
is significant is because it is a bigger octagon, and
I think we think the betting market things that if
Grosso is to remain and still she's got to get
(04:05):
a takedown, does this fight have to play out similarly
in order for Grosso to keep her belt.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
I mean, look, she performed amazing last time. I mean,
she just pounced on that when she got the opportunity.
She pounced on that submission so quickly, and she has
that ability. She's getting better. We've seen in her progression
to get to this point, and she's now she's got
the belt, she's got the confidence, she has a win over.
I mean, honestly, she's definitely going to be a lot
more game. So the odds make sense to me that
it's going to be a lot tighter. I was hoping
(04:33):
that we would actually get a way better price on her.
Still like people thinking it was a flucish type of situation,
but that's not the case. A lot of people believe
she's live. I mean, I honestly think she's probably going
to get taken down again. So I think Shifchenko is
going to come in game plans more on the feat.
She was getting tagged up a little bit. She just
has to be more cautious. I mean, it's a winnable
fight for Schrifchenko still, but making no mistake, she's not
(04:53):
the same flighter she once was, even just a couple
of years ago, so she is kind of declining, but
that decline is still better than the majority of the
girls that are division. That's a crazy thing. So just
because she's taking a step back doesn't mean she's going
to lose this fight again. And Grosso's kind of trending up.
So for me, I think people are under estimated ship Chenko. Honestly,
the price might be a little bit short, but again
it's kind of one of those situations where I was
(05:15):
looking forward to maybe betting Grosso again because I think
she has the ability to win this fight again, but
the price is everything, and now at this point I
think is actually disrespectful toward Shipchenko a little bit.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
You know, that's fascinating, Nick, because I've been listening to
everybody in the MMA spades, and what I mean by
that is people that know like Daniel Cormier's of the
world and ex fighters that will tell you that a
lot of them are favoring Grosso in this rematch, and
I keep trying to get to the Shipchenko side thinking
the same thing you are, that maybe this price tag
is a little bit short on the woman that we
(05:46):
regarded not just at one hundred and twenty five pounds,
but we are still talking about even with the two
asses to Nunez as one of the greatest of all
time at anyway class. For any woman that's ever stepped
foot in the octagon, what does Shiftchenko have to do
differently in order to get the belt again?
Speaker 3 (06:02):
She just has to be a little bit more cautious
and not be I mean, she took a risk, you know,
and got caught in that situation. I mean she missed
kind of swung and missed sore to speaking that just
got you know. So this time, for sure, she's gonna
be a little bit more careful. She's not gonna be
as sloppy I think. And again she's just gonna have
to game plan and just be cautious and be a
little bit better defensively. But she's the type of fighter
that could do that. Her fight at Q is very smart.
(06:24):
I mean, she's great everywhere. The fight takes place, and
like you said, I do think she's the best female
fighter I've ever seen in my life. I mean, newon
As is up there for sure. Even with the losses
of the nude. As I've said a time and time again,
I still believe powper pounce if Chenko is the best
female fighter that I've seen. So it's kind of a
shame that she's taking a step back, but it halfens
to everybody, So this is good. I'm curious to see
how much she has left then tanking, if she can
(06:44):
redeem herself here in this.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
Spot, Nick, When you look at the total rounds prop here,
look at the juice at over four and a half
at my star fifty five, and yet I think the
thought process is that it would be grosso by sub
again if we were to go that way and hit
the ground. There sees a plus three fifty, the same
number that she can win a decision. Look at the
price on Chevchenko for decision plus a dollar seventy five.
(07:07):
So a fight that's juiced heavily towards that over leads
us towards a decision which could lead you to the
Shipchenko price tag. There are there any other ways that
you would attack this if you're looking at the former
champ side.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
Yeah, No, I think that she probably does win. I
mean she might have a chip on her shoulder, she
finished fights before her, but I think Grosseo is the
type of fighter that she could probably withstand even if
she's getting beat on the ground. I don't think she
gets finished on the ground. So I do think it's
correlated to Shiftchenk going over if it hits the scorecards.
And I think it is correlated to grosseling under again
because not just the submission game, I mean Russell again.
(07:41):
She's getting better on the feet, she's tagging her up
a little bit. I mean she's effective everywhere the fight
takes place, and she's dangerous, so I think that you
can't now d estimate her there. That's why it's correlated
to the Grossel one under and Shipchenk going over.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
You know, Nick, who am I to tell Shawn Shelby
and Dana White who they should schedule and at what venues?
But JDM, Jack Dell and Madelena not fighting in Australia.
I was a little surprised by that. But we get
him in the United States against Big Mouth and the
American here and Kevin Holland feels like a really intriguing fight.
Kevin Holland is the dog here in the comin event
(08:12):
at plus a dollar twenty four. Stylistically, you look at
the height advantage that Kevin has, but yet and a
big reach advantage there with eight inches, and yet JDM
is the small favorite at dollar forty eight? Is this
fight miss priced? Do do you think it's a priced accordingly?
Speaker 3 (08:30):
Well, I mean, honestly, Holland came out as a slate
favorite and then got flipped. Everybody's betting the Madelina side
and a lot of sharp action is hitting that side
as well. That's why the line turned to where it did.
And he actually keeps on coming in his way. I
get it a lot. I think a lot of people
are probably thinking this line is short because of his
last fight. It was more competitive than everybody anticipated, so
his stock dropped to the point where it's kind of short.
(08:51):
You know right now where it is. But that being said,
Kevin Holland is the toughest opponent that he's faced to date.
This is not going to be an easy fight. I
would not the chalk here and I've been a big
JDM supporter, I think he's great. I just think he's
not quite there yet, and a lot of people that
have that stock in him. I mean, Katie go out
here and maybe spark Holland to get a quick finish possibly.
I mean, he's got that kind of potential and that
(09:12):
kind of skill. But if he doesn't do that, if
this fight hits the scorecard, so Holland probably wins on
the cards, and Holland has the ability to maybe get
a submission or finish it in his own right, you
can't underestimate him there either. So for me, it's a
dog or pass situation. I mean, everybody bet this up.
I understand it. Maybe it is again we're maybe coming
HM out a little bit too much because of his
last performance. It will probably perform better. But that being said,
(09:33):
you're underestimating Kevin Holland here severely if you're betting than
Matt Aleena.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Side speaking of JDM, maybe a little bit too much
too soon. What about robl rosas Junior the youngster here
back in the octagon on a main card here, a
pretty big card too. With mite. UFC is going to
get a very high profile celebrating Mexican independence. Day, and
here he is at a seven dollars favorite against Terrence Mitchell.
What do we make of the eighteen year old against
(09:57):
the thirty three year old?
Speaker 3 (10:00):
I mean, honestly, russis junior. He was in a bad
spot last time. To me, I bet against him. I
had enough cash into ticketing against him. I think we're
going to see him, you know, getting back on track,
meaning get the momentum flowing again. He's this really solid fighter.
I just think he ran it to a difficult matchup
for him stylistically in that loss that he just recently took.
So for me, it's just one of those situations where
(10:20):
I think he bounces back here, looks impressive and keeps
his kind of momentum back on track and gets the
train rolling in the right direction. This kid is talented.
We cannot count him out. Look at the price tag.
It's there for a reason. I think he probably does
get us to the ground and finds a finish here
as well.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
But how do you tell an eighteen year old to
pace yourself?
Speaker 3 (10:36):
Yeah it's very hard, right, no doubt about it. But
he definitely has to get that under a control though
I'm sure they're working on it. You know there's no doubt.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
He just goes. You know, it's all gas, no breaks,
and sometimes even at eighteen you still need to worry
about that cardio a little bit. I see the hat
there UFC on the Line, Nick telling people where they
can see you and the shows that you guys have.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Yeah, we have a live episode actually coming your way
tomorrow which is Wednesday, three pm Pacific time, So make
sure you head over to the UFC Fight Pass and
check us out. Myself, Yanni, the Greek MITCHI Betts of course,
and Brenifice Scherald. We have a great show. We'll give
you all of our best bets and we'll give you
some more insights as far as the car goes this
weekend as well.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
You guys do have a great show, a great company
that you keep there at UFC on the Line, Nick,
always appreciate your time, my friend. Enjoy the fights this weekend.
We'll catch up again soon. Thanks, guys, enjoy the fights
there is everybody nick Les. Give him a follow on
X if you're on there at fight Odds. Okay, when
we come back, can I go to the Windy City.
I know Bears fans are still upset about their loss.
(11:34):
Let's talk some UFC with Jordan Sherwood.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Next.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
Here on first right, Draft Kings Sportsbook is giving you
(12:09):
plenty of ways to bet the UFC. Just download the
DraftKings Sportsbook Gap, You're going to be able to bet.
I'm more than just the main event. DraftKings is great odds.
I'm fight lines, total rounds and features for all MMA events.
Elgible restrictions to Apple. I see DraftKings dot Com. So
ask Sportsbook for all the terms and conditions. Dave Ross
back here at Circus Sportsbook in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada.
Now we go to the second city and catch up
(12:30):
with mmaficionado Jordan Sherwood. You can follow Jordan as I
do on x at Wood on ESPN one thousand. Jordan,
before we get to the fight game, how is Chicago
doing today? Because for those that don't know, it's a
fight show, We're not Bears. Just got humiliated at home
against Green Bay. How are you guys doing in Chicago?
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Yeah, it's not good. There's a lot of question marks
about this team in every facet of the game, from
head coach on down.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Is Justin Yields the guy.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Oh, there's a lot of worried fans out there, and look,
you know, you think you're optimistically about going to Tampa
to take on Baker Mayfield and the Boys, but they
just went up and beat Minnesota, So who knows. I
think maybe let's just say it's a week to week
league and we'll be feeling a lot better after Sunday
afternoon in Tampa.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
The Bears one in one.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
See, that's our football talk for the show. He's got
the Bears lapel. He has not given up Chicago. He
is still one of yours. Okay, let's get to some
of your picks that you like on this fight card.
And I like that you've got some fights here on
the undercard, and I want to get to one in particular,
Jasmine Jesuit Diavisius the Canadian against Tracy Cortes. Pretty evenly
lined fight here. Cortes right now, Bob minus a dollar
(13:43):
twenty two Jasmine basically even money on the comeback here?
What do you make of this fight here for the ladies.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I'm surprised actually the value that we're getting Tracy Cortes
at and I think it's because we haven't seen her frequently.
You know, she's only fought one or four times in
the last four years, so averaging about one fight per year.
But this is a woman now on a ten fight
win streak, including a victory over Aaron Blanchefield, which obviously,
as it continues to age, is ever more impressive and
(14:14):
has I think, of all the skill sets we're gonna
see take place in this matchup, the one advantage and
that's in the takedowns. If she remains off of her
back foot, if she doesn't get pressured like Jasmine likes
to do against her opponents, and someone in Jasmine who's
susceptible to the takedowns, I think that absolutely were in
(14:34):
a situation where Tracy Cortes can control this fight, work
the takedowns, and obviously, you know, register those points in
the judge's mind to get her hand raised via decision,
and that's how she wins fights too. I mean, we're
I'm not looking at an inside the distance here, play
or under you know, Tracy Cortes is a lady that
goes into judges' car cards eight of or ten wins
(14:55):
a come via decision. But I think that's the method
of victory. I think it's it's very plausible that's going
to happen, and I like the value. Will you have
her on a Tuesday?
Speaker 1 (15:03):
Now you have her for a decision at plus a
dollar forty, but remember you can just lay at a
dollar twenty two. Do you want to get cute with
that in case she does get something inside the distance
or do you think it's decision or bust and take
that plus money.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Look, I know we're going to get at some point
to the main event here, but I think that this
UFC note J fight card could could mean something special
to these you know, Mexican American fighters, these Hispanic fighters.
So we could see some finishes, some dramatic stuff. So
probably lay off of that. I think Tracy Cortes just
gets to win because there's enough value in her to
believe that she maybe she gets to finish via submission
(15:36):
or she gets her hand raised via the judges scorecards.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
All right, let's keep going on the undercard. I know
you've got to pick here on Charlie Campbell against Alex Reyes,
and right now Campbell rather sizable favorite here. What do
you make of this one? Are you looking to attack
it a different way and stay that instead of laying
that big number.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Yeah, a lot of unknown in this fact for sure.
Obviously Charlie Campbell, we're high on him, a lot of
reputable performances on regional circuit. He comes from the Ray
Longo this a Longo Sirah camp, which obviously produces a
lot of great fighters and Alex treads. I mean he
has not fought in six years. Like what I mean
you could do a lot in six years. I mean
(16:13):
six years ago, you know, I had one kid, I
was in Florida and Chicago wasn't even on the radar.
I mean, so much has had to have happened. And look,
yes he has had some fights get canceled. He obviously
has a lineage his older brother Dominic. You know, obviously
he's a very successful fighter.
Speaker 1 (16:30):
In the UFC.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
But look, six years is a lot to work on.
I think there could be some sort of a you know,
element of being overwhelmed. Campbell is a fast starter. He
hits like a truck and he's a finisher. So for
a little bit too risky for me to just say, hey,
money line on Campbell straight up, but I think he
he overwhelms ray As and we're going to play it
(16:52):
inside the distance in the under both on the Campbell.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Side six years ago. I was right there in Chicago
probably getting dunkin Donuts every day on Madison. You know
exactly where that is, Jordan. Okay, let's get to the
comine and the main event here on this card and
fascinating fights for different reasons. I believe when you look
at Kevin Holland and again JDM is going to be
matching up with here in the co main event. Holland
talks a big game, That's why he's got the nickname
(17:16):
Big Map, but he backs it up a lot of time.
Jack Della Matalana is now the now fighter right at
twenty seven, but it's not like Kevin Allen's thirty five.
He's just thirty. So this feels like a pivotal about
at one seventy. What do you make at Holland as
a dog.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, I think there's value there early in the week.
You know, look a Holland's not going to have to
contend with a rustler.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
That's what we've seen.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
Cause him issues in the past.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
Obviously, you think that the Hans at Schemaia fight, he
was completely overwhelmed. So this is going to be a
stand up affair his You know his athleticism, his power
has reached very difficult to model. Albeit JDM just was
in there with you know, athletic you know Long Weltway
and Randy Brown a couple of fights ago.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
But JDM did not look good time out.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
And you know, obviously, as you know, surprise a lot
of people on short notice taking that fight and going
to the judges' scorecross, maybe even winning to fight. But
I think Hollin carries, you know, a surprising power for
his frame, and I think it's going to be a
lot to deal with for JDM. So I think at
plus money right now, Kevin Howard is certainly worth a
(18:20):
shot because in my mind, Kevin Holland has been in
there with better fighters and JDM has not.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
What's interesting too, when you look at the prop side, okay,
it is juice heavily to the under in this potential
three round CO main event here to a doubt forty five.
So if we think there's finishing potential, the KO prop
for JDM is plus a dollar eighty five. The subprop
at five to one for Kevin Allen. We've seen him
do that from time to time. Would would Kevin Holland
be more apt to take the fight down to the ground,
(18:48):
ironically in a matchup of strikers, as we think it's
going to play out.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
I mean, look, I think you obviously know that JDM
strength is going to be in the stand up, but
I don't. I don't agree with the finish this one.
I've actually leaned more towards the over this just being
a stand up fight kind of a kickboxing match. Holland
scoring some more points with a bevy of strength. Maybe
he gets a take down at some point to warn
her a favor in the judges scorecards, But I'm not
(19:14):
seeing a finish at least this early in fight week,
all right, So.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
You might get that plus money there, you're picking up
what Jordan's putting down at over two and a half
rounds at plus a dollar fifteen. And again, if you
like to fight, just go to the distance and not
even pick a winner, you can get over dollar thirty
I'm seeing right now on the screen. So maybe some
value there for the fight to go all three and
what we think will be a stand up affair. I
think we think in the main event in a rematch
(19:39):
here for the one hundred and twenty five pounds strap
that Valentine of Chevchenko would like to keep this fight
standing after what we saw the first time around against
against Alexa Grosso, now the champion. But Jordan, the fascinating
thing for me is Valentina is not inept on her back.
It was just that Grosso when she saw her opportunity,
seized it and so fuck in that finish and it
(20:01):
was almost like what hit Valentina? What do you make
of the rematch here and now? Is Valentina fearful of
a takedown in this rematch? I you know, I don't
think it's fearful.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
I think it's knowing that if this fight goes to
the ground, she could be in trouble. I think there
was a comfortability factor as a dominating champion that she's
just going to be able to dictate wherever the fight goes.
Against Alexa Grosso the first time out. That's not the
case now. I mean, look at the price on Valentina
chertanko dollar fifty seven prior to that minus six hundred,
minus five hundred, minus twelve fifty, thirteen hundred, eleven hundred.
(20:35):
Like you know, obviously there's a lot of respect for
the current champion, Alexa Grosso. She pulled off the upset.
But you know, this is similar to what we talked
about with John Jones making his heavyweightweight debut with Cyril Gohn.
There's tremendous value in my opinion, for Valentina Chertanko at
this price as it currently stands.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
She's well versed everywhere.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
It might have been just you know, last of days
ago approach as a dominating champion. She's going to be
ready and she's going to have to because Alexa Grosslffice
is going to carry that momentum of the UFC notesche
that I think is going to be favored in the
crowd like these Mexican American fighters, these Latin fighters are
going to feel that and want to, you know, live
up to the moment that I think chef Chenko is
ready to reclaim her title, you know.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
And I don't know how much it plays into the
in the fighter's mentality, but I'm curious, Jordan, from a
betting perspective, if you think it factors in. When we
saw Israel Asnia lose last week to Sean Strickland, the
debate was is he the greatest middleweight? I don't know
if that factors in, but if Chefchenko wants to get
back to I mean, I think she looks at herself
and says, I'm still the best. At one hundred and
twenty five, I was arguably one of the best female
(21:36):
fighters ever in the history of the UFC. Does she
look for a finish to try to reestablish herself. Could
you see an inside the distance prop possibly playing out
for Schipchenko or do you think she doesn't care about
that and she's just worried about winning, whether it's a
five round decision and getting that strap back.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
We look, there's a lots of legacy, there's a lots
of big time fights, you know. I think we were
talking about again it's Talia Santo. Chipchenko had an opportunity
maybe to dominate her and then get a man in
Nunia is in.
Speaker 1 (22:05):
A trilogy fight.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
So I do believe, yes, Dave, there is something to
if chip Chankle can not only go out there and
win the fight, but winning impressively inside the distance. Albeit
the other side of the coin is Sean Stricklin had
the more impressive victory, not in Finnish but in a
five round dominating performance a cons there's no lot of sonia,
so you know, I think it depends on what side
of the argument you're on. Either way, I think Schipchankle
(22:27):
reclaims the title.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
Jordan Sherwood is the definition of a pro. As sad
as he is about his bears, he still comes on
this program and does a fine job breaking down the fights. Jordan,
enjoy the fights and the football this weekend. We'll see
you next week here on First Trike, we're shipping up
the Boston next with Dan. Everyone, come on back. First
Strike on Decon starts your morning with Easton Daily Morning Mets,
(23:12):
Josh Applebaum gives you every piece of info you need
to be ready for betting the day's biggest games in
just fifteen minutes. He discusses the line move injuries, and
what you need to be looking at before you place
those wagers. So make the Vson Daily Morning Bets podcast
part of your morning routine. Download and subscribe wherever you
get your podcast. We're shipping up to Boston now with
Dan Rieland. He is a writer at Gambling Podcast. Also,
(23:36):
I have to put my glasses so on because there's
so many things. K Side Press, host of Top Turtle
Mma and SGPN MMA pods. The business Man in mma
is Daniel Freeland. You can follow him on X as
I do at Gumbi Vreeland as well. Dan. You know,
we like to start off with this each and every week,
your favorite fight to watch, maybe not to wager on,
(23:57):
and then conversely, your favorite fight to wager on.
Speaker 5 (24:01):
I'm really excited about the Jack Della Medeleina versus Kevin
Holland fight. I think that's gonna be absolute fireworks. Nobody
wants to grapple in that fight, and I appreciate that,
so I'm most excited about that one. The one I'm
most excited I'm wagering on is I actually like Jazmine
Jesuitavissius quite a bit against Tracy Cortez.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
She's coming in right now.
Speaker 5 (24:20):
I think I saw even money she was posted at
most recently. She's dipped down into the plus a couple
of times, and people have had Tracy Cortez and the negative.
But I really think the physicality is going to be
really tricky for Tracy Cortez. She showed how physical she
could be last time out against Miranda Maverick, and if
you can be physical with Miranda Maverick, you could be
physical with just about anybody in that flyweight division.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
Plus.
Speaker 5 (24:42):
I think the reach for Jesuita Vissius plays well, so
the fact that you're getting plus money on her again
somebody who's had a little bit of a layoff in
Tracy Cortez.
Speaker 1 (24:49):
I like Jaesuita Vissius quite a bit. I know you're
in Boston and I know you like Jazzy Jay. Is
there a Canadian bias that I sense a little bit
with some of you fights? Well, actually, it's funny you
mentioned that.
Speaker 5 (24:59):
So on the m M, A gambling podcast on the
Sports Gambling podcast Network is Canadian. However, he fades all
the Canadians. I play all the Canadians, So there is
a little bit of a Canadian by.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
I actually like the fashion now a lot. Do you
worry though, again, it's notese UFC. It is gonna be
right here in t mobile Rina in Las Vegas, and
we get it. We're celebrating Mexican Independence Day. Do you
worry about some of these fights when they hit the cards.
I mean, it's not like you're going to Australia and
yet Sean Strickland still want a decision against Israel Asania
in Australia. Do you do you worry about that at all,
(25:33):
because you know the crowd is going to be raucus
here in Vegas.
Speaker 5 (25:36):
Yeah, I think that.
Speaker 4 (25:37):
More than anything.
Speaker 5 (25:38):
If you're worrying about anything, you worry about the fighters
getting hyped up, because the fact of the matter is,
I've even talked to some of these Mexican fighters on
the card, like I talked to Padilla, Fernando Padilla, and
like they are jacked up for a card that is
filled with Mexican fighters. So, like you, you might worry
about that a little bit. But as far as the scorecards,
I think you know, the Vegas Commission is usually one
(25:59):
of the better ones. You know, It's not, like I say,
every time, it's not Texas, So I try not to
worry too much about what the scorecards will look like.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
I think you nailed it though, on the head that
you know that people that don't know what adrenaline dump is.
It's a real thing. And sometimes, as you mentioned, sometimes
you want to put on such a big show. It
is a big card. It is t Mobile Arena, It's
not Apex. So I do worry a little bit about that.
You mentioned Padia here a big favorite against Kyle Nelson,
What are you making Fernando's mentality coming into this fight
after talking to the fighter. Right now, he's over about
(26:28):
a two to fifty betting favorite.
Speaker 5 (26:30):
I actually think the negative two to fifty is a
little wide. And I think Kyle Nelson is kind of
being looked down upon here, and I'm not quite sure why.
I guess early in his career he had a couple
of bad performances. I do really think Padilla is gonna
win here because I like his length, I like his power.
The way he knocked up Julian to Rosa was really
impressive to me. But I just can't lay that kind
of chalk on him. I think negative two fifties too wide.
(26:52):
If I were to look for a place where I
could like Padia and I could think that Padilla was
going to win this fight, I would probably look for
the ko prop. I think Nelson is hitable. While he
has been durable in the past, I don't think he's
faced anybody who can hit quite like Padilla can. And look,
Padilla went in there and knocked out Julian Rosa, a
guy who from time to time has shown pretty decent
(27:12):
chin although he's been knocked out once or twice. But
like I think the way he knocked him out, the
viciousness the way he knocked him out, and that length
I think is going to be a problem for Kyle Nelson.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
So I like the ko.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
Prop there plus at dour sixty five to dance point
there instead of laying the two point fifty plus go
plus at dollar sixty five to get the knockout if
he's going to get that method of victory. A fight
that I haven't discussed yet here in the show, and
I really want to and I want to get your
thoughts on it is Roman Kopolov against Josh Fremd. Interesting
fight for me. I was a little surprised when I
see Kapolov as almost asiz as a four hour betting favorite.
(27:44):
Do you think this is priced accordingly? Three years older
here one inch reach advantage for Fremd? Is the dog
live to you at all? Here?
Speaker 2 (27:52):
You know?
Speaker 5 (27:52):
Again, this is another one of those ones where I
think the line is just a little bit too wide,
and I'd have to try to find some other avenues
to that. You know, I might like copy off inside
the distance or something like that. But I do really
think he's got so many advantages over Fromimed. He's another
guy who I actually thought was gonna be undervalued because
of his early performances in the UFC. You know, he
kicked off his career in that two fight losing streak,
(28:13):
and I thought for sure people would be writing him off.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Since then, he's looked amazing.
Speaker 5 (28:17):
His hands are so fast, and I'd really worry about
that with Josh Frent because while frem can slow the
fight down and get to the wrestling and stuff like that,
he has a trouble wrestling guys who are like particularly strong,
Like you know, I think about the Treyhon Gore fight.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
If he can't.
Speaker 5 (28:32):
Wrestle with Treychon Gore and he winds up getting out
muscled in that one, I really don't like his odds
to wrestle Copyloft. So I think Copylof with his defensive
wrestling is gonna be enough. And man, I think he's
gonna be so much faster on.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
The field, you know, outside of Rylan Rossas Junior being
the biggest favorite on the card. The other one, speaking
of wide numbers, here, it's Loopy and Lapita Godinez is
back in there against at least Reid and Lupy is
a big favorite over a fort dollar betting favorite. Right now,
she is minus four twenty five. The least come back
there is plus three thirty. Should she be this big
a favorite, I think so. You know, I think Loopy is.
Speaker 5 (29:08):
I mean, first of all, the pace she puts on
I really really like that about her. Yeah, I also
like the way she's brought the wrestling game in And
the thing about Alas Reid is in fights where Reid
has been the worst of the two wrestlers of the
worst against the cage, she has a faredwell. You know,
you can look back at all of her wins and
all of her losses in fights where she could win
that clinch battle she won, in fights she couldn't win
(29:30):
that clinch battle she lost. So, you know, I think
with the fact that Loopy comes from that background where
she's got, you know, a family's worth of wrestlers she's
working with, right, like both of her sisters are like
Canadian national team wrestlers, I think she's gonna have that
innate advantage there, and I think that that's enough for
me to favor Read and not be able to draw
a path to victory for.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
He now in a three round fight here potentially, do
you see finishing potential for Loopy or do you think
all right? Because and right now, if you want her
by decision, it's plus a dollar twenty, so you can
get plus money on Loopy. If she goes the distance,
the sub price plus a dollar ninety. So those are
the two more likely pathways to victory. Do you favor
one over the other?
Speaker 5 (30:11):
Yeah, I think I'm gonna favor the decision prop. At
least Reid has showed she's pretty durable. You know, I
don't necessarily think she's the best fighter in the world.
Like I said, it pretty much comes down to when
she doesn't have a physicality advantage, she loses that fight.
But like you know, she looked durable against Giney Fry,
She looked durable against Mellie Martinez. She like took punches
from both of them. Now, granted the fight she lost,
(30:33):
she did get really naked choked by woman Luca Boome.
She got you know, elbowed out by Sam Hughes, so
like that finishes there, But most of those were late
in the fight and looked like she was getting exhausted.
While Lupy does put a pace on people.
Speaker 4 (30:45):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (30:46):
Necessarily that she looks for the finish in the same way,
So I think loopy by decision is probably the way
I'd look for.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Value on that one plus a dollar twenty. I wonder again,
how do you tell eighteen year olds to pace themselves
with ravl Ross Junior in here against Terrence Smith. This
should be a perfect matchup for Raoul being on the
main card at a big time fight night like this,
but he's still eighteen. We saw what happened the last
time he went out. Now we're gonna lay seven dollars
in the kid. Are you still willing to do that
(31:12):
after what you saw last time out?
Speaker 5 (31:14):
Well, I'm gonna take the subprop first of all, and
probably once the the odds come out a little bit
later in the week, I'm gonna take the sub in
the first round prop. Because the thing is is Terrence
Mitchell is a gift wrap type matchup here for Rau
Roasas Junior. Because while Raul Roasas, like you said, he
kind of got too excited in his last fight and
he ran out of gas against Sea Rod, Sea Rod
(31:34):
is a lot better of a grappler than Terence Mitchell.
Terrence Mitchell. The book's been out on him since he
was on the regional scene. Is he's got no wrestling
defense from a grappling standpoint, good jiu jitsu. You know,
he could box a little bit. He's long, you know,
he's long. That gives people trouble all the time. But
he's on his back almost immediately in every single fight.
And with the way that Rosas moves through his paces
(31:55):
and moves through his passes, I think he winds up
with a submission, you know, two minutes into this fight
minus sixty just for any time sub but that first
round sub that's gonna be juicy plus money right there.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
Okay, let's get to the main event here. Alexa Grassos
Grasso is now the champ against the former goat. I
don't know if she's still the goat Valentino Shipchenko, but
I think she'd like to get back to goat status
at one twenty five. Do you say and Still or
Anne new once again?
Speaker 4 (32:22):
I think I'm gonna say and Still.
Speaker 5 (32:24):
You know, I like fighters in rematches kind of all
the time. You know, the stats are kind of out there.
It's hard to beat a guy after they just beat you.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Hm.
Speaker 5 (32:31):
And also there's not really anything fluky about her win, right,
Like you know, you you looked at the Israeli Desagannya
versus Shan Strickland fight and you might say, look, if
he didn't look himself, he looks slow. You know, when
was he ever the guy who is worse at cutting
off angles? Like there's lots of fluky things there. In
the Alexa Grosso fight, she just looked better all the time.
She's always looked like a fast striker. She looked like
she's added some wrestling to her game and some grappling
(32:54):
to her game. That makes her, you know, a little
bit more well rounded. I think she's gonna be the faster,
sharper fighter than chef Schenko. In the fact that she's
now coming in on plus money makes me all the
more willing to play that.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
I used to say this all the time when it
came to Evander Holyfield against Mike Tyson. I don't know
what would be different. They fought twice, Tyson lost twice.
I think they fought ten times. He might have lost
ten times. Fascinating to see if Grosso is now the
kryptonite to Valentin if Shipchenko great stuff. As always, Dan
enjoyed Boston. I'm assuming still hot up there. Oh yeah,
very hot, sweltering hot. Wait you have it? Where's your
(33:27):
JDM put? Can we see the jdmro there?
Speaker 5 (33:30):
We got the crooked nose looking down upon us today.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
So you're taking JDM over Kevin Holly A sports I am.
Speaker 5 (33:35):
I liked it better when it was you know, plus
one hundred negative one fifthy'll do?
Speaker 2 (33:39):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (33:40):
I knew You're still on the JDM side.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
Damn.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
Appreciate you as always my friend. Going to Washington, DC
next and you come back with us here on first.
Speaker 6 (33:46):
Right, we roll on this edition of First Trike.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
Dave Ross here in Las Vegas. Go out to Washington,
d C. Catch up with Riekoon. You can follow him
on Twitter as I do at Fight Nomics. He is
the author of a book of the same name, read
we missed You last week for USC two ninety three.
But there was a rumor floating around that our producer
extraordinaire Britton has came out to visit you in DC
and then you had an elbow injury. Were you guys
rolling on the mat? Was there any taekwondo? Was there
(34:36):
any any jiu jitsu going play? How did you get hurt.
Speaker 7 (34:40):
It could have been just reaching the top shelf, because
you know when I have guests here, I always go
to the top shelf. They always get the best of
what I have, So that might have been in just
reaching for a Scotch bottle.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
That's it, you get the good stuff. Britain. You showed
him a good time with that good stuff off the
top shelf. We appreciated here at First Strike. I was
watching on Twitter today on X and I saw your
tweet come out about rematches, and obviously in the main
event here in Las Vegas this weekend we have a
pretty tantalizing rematch with Alexra Grosso against Valentine of Shipchenko.
And I think the point, if I'm getting it right
(35:12):
from the point of your tweet, was you look at
the numbers that Valentina has compiled in her career, and
they are that's why she's regarded as possibly the goat.
But now you've hit that marker of thirty five years
of age. How do you quantify the data that she's
compiled versus where she might be now as a fighter.
Speaker 4 (35:34):
Well, obviously age is an important number to my models.
Speaker 7 (35:37):
It was a heavy focus in the book that I wrote,
So yeah, that is something I'm aware of, and the
models you take that into account. They're looking for when
people might be getting a little too high, and that's
introducing risk.
Speaker 4 (35:50):
However, I will say her career as impressive as it is.
Speaker 7 (35:54):
She has fought some of the best of the best,
including Amanda Unitez and gone five rounds with her. But
what I see jumping off the page is that Shavshchenko
is very hard to hit, and that is a common
element of a lot of longtime champions because they don't
get that cumulative damage the way a sloppier fighter might get.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
And that's what we saw in the first fight.
Speaker 7 (36:15):
She was actually i think winning round to round and
not getting a whole lot of damage.
Speaker 4 (36:20):
It was the sudden submission.
Speaker 7 (36:21):
I mean, it really was surprising when it happened because
Grasso was losing that fight and then all of a
sudden was over.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
And that's what's impressive.
Speaker 7 (36:28):
And so obviously we're seeing the odds swing heavily the
other way, not just on the opening line this time around,
but even on the what's going to be the closing line,
Like we're still seeing some backers on Grasso push that
price down, and so I actually don't know where I'm
going to land.
Speaker 4 (36:46):
I think the.
Speaker 7 (36:47):
Logic still says it's Shavshenko is a logical favorite. She
should be winning round to round. But is she now
more vulnerable? Is she making mistakes? Are people catching up
with her game? Find those holes, finding those moments? That's
a concern. I did make money on Grasso last time.
That does not mean I'm necessarily going to better this time.
(37:07):
I got to see where the prices land.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
By the way, I love the ubertail to say that
you do and really introduced to the sport years ago.
Here with your models and the checks do go to
Chevchenko's side with the one huge check being aged, and
that Grosso is thirty and as you allude to with
Chefcheko being thirty five, would she have to do something
differently in your eyes to regain it or more of
the same and just avoid being caught because once Grosso
(37:31):
did get that opportunity boom, she did not let that
pass by.
Speaker 7 (37:36):
Now that's one of those out of the cage factors
that is not in the models, but I accept that
it is real. You know, momentum does count. Confidence is
important in this game. We just don't have a way
to quantify that necessarily in the models. And here Schevchenko
is getting shocked by everyone in a massive upset. That's
got to hurt your confidence. And Grasso, on the other hand,
she has now proven that she can do it, So
(37:57):
maybe she fights more aggressively than last. Maybe we see
her a little bit better in the stand up, willing
to take some shots. Chefshenko is not really a power striker,
she's more of a point striker. She's very technically sound.
So if Grasso is willing to be more aggressive, she
might be able to close that distance a little bit
more often and that might open up opportunities. But again,
like this is not something I can quantify, It's just
(38:19):
something I do accept as a reality.
Speaker 4 (38:21):
And that age is an important number.
Speaker 7 (38:23):
And that's where I think the models are currently falling
very close to where I'm going to go on this one,
and it's probably going to come down to where the
prices land on Friday.
Speaker 1 (38:31):
And again, when you look at the total rounds and
the total rounds prop is set at four and a half,
juice heavily to the overread at minus a dollar fifty
five even just for the fight to go the distance
without picking a winner. It's minus a dollar forty, so
that at least the odds makers are saying there's not
a lot of finishing potential. We did see a finished
last time out. Chef Chekos had finishes in the past,
(38:52):
right obviously, I was there in Chicago the head kick
herd round Chicago when she knocked out Jessica I years ago.
Is there finishing potential in your estimation from what the
model show or is it just too hard to quantify
because we know that Schifchiko probably doesn't want to get
engaged that much and make this a points fight.
Speaker 7 (39:09):
I think if there is a finish, it's probably more
likely to be a submission. Both girls are very good
with submissions. They have them, they've used them, and I
think they are going to even themselves out on the feet.
I see Shipshenko trying to score the points, Grasso trying
to be a little bit more aggressive. It's the submissions
that interest me the most. I think the value on
an over under is tough because if you're taking the over,
(39:32):
you're counting on Shibschenko probably making this a more boring fight.
But if you're going the under, both sides have finishing
potential with submissions. So if there's any value, it might
be on the under. I mean go contrarian when it
comes to a movement like that, everybody thinks this is
going to go to the cards.
Speaker 4 (39:48):
The value is probably plus money on the under.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
We've seen the comin event here between Kevin Allen and
Jack Della Medeleana JDM. A flip of the favorites, right.
It opened up with Holland being the favorite, and now
it's really flipped to JDM being a solid favorite almost
a dollar fifty in this co main event. Surprises me
a little bit, and I get it the love for
JDM out there. The Australian based fighter, very very popular
(40:11):
fighter and very dynamic fighter. But it's not like Kevin
Holland is some old washed thirty fight. I mean he's
still thirty. You can make the case for his athletic prime.
I know he flirted with retirement. That always is a
bit of a concern, but properly focused Kevin Holland. Do
you think there's value here in the dog?
Speaker 7 (40:29):
Yeah, if Kevin Holland is the dog, it's hard for
me to keep track who's the dog at this moment.
I'm with Kevin Holland here he is going to look
huge in the cage with JDM massive size difference, one
of the longest reaches in the UFC let alone at welterweight,
and so Holland has that advantage.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
And JDM is very aggressive.
Speaker 7 (40:48):
He uses a very high piece of strikes and that
means he's going to be blasting forward. And so that
gives Kevin Holland the option of do I counter, do
I find the chin, which he is good at doing,
especially with that range, or does he take him down?
And so I think on the ground the submissions are
also interesting. I just give Kevin Holland a little bit
of an edge on both levels here and then sprinkle
(41:11):
in the top. He has way better opponents to date.
Speaker 4 (41:14):
JDM.
Speaker 7 (41:15):
You know, he barely he got out of a split
decision in his last outing. Meanwhile, Kevin Holland is over
there submitting Mike chiesa way more impressive, so that momentum
is behind Kevin Holland. So I think there's enough stacking
up where on a coin flip, I'm gonna go with
Kevin Holland.
Speaker 1 (41:29):
I'm right there within that subprop and it jumped off
the page to me at five to one for Kevin
Holland because again you would think, are these going to
be guys that stand in trade? You see, if he
gets in a clinch, you could see something maybe a
standing giatsin who knows, but it does feel with that
height and reach advantage, there's a lot of ways that
Kevin Holland can go if he doesn't have to fear
the takedown. And JDM is not gonna be looking for
a takedown, correct.
Speaker 4 (41:51):
Unlikely he doesn't choose to go to the ground.
Speaker 7 (41:53):
He has a couple takedown attempts in his entire career,
not many, And yeah, I think this is Holland on.
Speaker 1 (42:00):
Yeah, I'm right there with you in that evaluation. I
want to get to a fight earlier in the car
that you might have some info on that data points
to maybe Tracy Cortez over Jazzy Jay Jasmine Jazzit Divisious here.
What do you make of Cortez? We don't see her
very often. Jesse Divicious has been much more active. But
what are the numbers showing you?
Speaker 7 (42:20):
Yeah, technically the same sample size of sixty minutes, But
you're right, I think one of them has been more
active more recently.
Speaker 4 (42:26):
Cortes. She's the younger.
Speaker 7 (42:28):
Fighter, and there are a couple edges that I see,
and in this one is another fight that is going
to be very close to a coin flip in terms
of the line, and therefore it gives us an even read.
You know, if you have a lean one way or
the other on a coin flip, you go with the lien,
and the lien here is with Cortez. I think she
might be a slight favorite, and that's okay. I do
see her being a little bit more technical on the feet.
(42:48):
She is more accurate but also more evasive. That's a
nice combination to have. That means her striking exchange, she
should be landing more strikes, and when you look at Jasmine,
her strike differential is ex very negative. She eats a
lot of punches before she lands one. And so I
do think that those points are going to add up
for Tracy Cortez. And then you factor in the ground game.
(43:08):
Both have been good on the ground, but Cortes is
much more reliant on her ground game, more aggressive. She
tends to advance position more often and stays in control
more often. She's found back control a few times, So
add up those factors and that gives me a lean
on the ground as well towards Cortes. So yeah, I'm
seeing it as close. But I'm also seeing edges down
the board for one side, and I'm going to.
Speaker 1 (43:30):
Go that way. Got about it minutes ago. Let's get
to one more lady's fight here that you might have
some data on. Lupy Gadenez is a huge favorite over
four dollars betting favorite against a lease read. It feels
like the betting market is saying this is a whitewash.
Is there any chance for an upset from Alease Reid?
Speaker 4 (43:47):
Yeah that you know.
Speaker 7 (43:48):
It's the same thing with you know, Chevshenko and Grasso
last time.
Speaker 4 (43:51):
It's the same thing with Izzy and Strickland this time.
Speaker 7 (43:54):
When the models are run, they're looking at the market
implied win probability. And while I admit that goodin As
is the justifiable favorite, her probability is coming out on
the side of saying, hey, sprinkle a little bit on.
Speaker 4 (44:06):
The least read.
Speaker 7 (44:07):
She's still a live dog even at long odds. In
the long run, I do know that these bets do
pan out. Even though I'm saying I expect the favorite
to win, there's a value on the dog, so this
would be a small value play on a long line.
I'm not going to get two bet out of shape.
My money will be made in other fights. But yeah,
there might be some value there. We'll see where it lands.
Speaker 1 (44:28):
There is, everybody, and the one and only redcoon who
entertained our Britton hell hes with top shelf stuff above
you what you see over Reid's heead right now read
appreciate you as always, my friend. Enjoy the fights. We'll
catch up again next week. All right, everybody, enjoy this
fight card here in Las Vegas, and we'll see if
back here. First Strike on vs and these which Betting
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