September 5, 2023 • 44 mins
The Middleweight Championship is on the line at UFC 293!!
Israel Adesanya will put his belt on the line against Sean Strickland! In the co-main event, a heavyweight clash between Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov.
First Strike delivers all the fight analysis you need before locking in your best bets ahead of the weekend card.
Dave Ross is joined this week by Lou Finocchiaro, Jordan Sherwood, Dan Vreeland, & Britton Hess.
Plus you can also WATCH the show here: https://youtu.be/17tKzn__y7U
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Hey, welcome to First Strike here on Visa and I'm
your host Dave Ross. For the next how we're gonna
break down UFC two ninety three as the UFC stays
away from the continent of the United States and stays overseas.
This week we are in Australia. Oh my goodness, the
return of Israel Arasanna. Of course the last style style
Benner gonna put that middle eight strap on the line
(00:34):
against Sean Strickland before we get there with luf And
to Carrol, Jordan Surewood, Dan Ruland and Britton has Let's
do a recap of what we saw last week at
UFC Pari and really no resistance for the Frenchman in
the main event as Cyril Gane an easy victory in
round two t KO over Sergey Spivack. The polar bear
we saw in the co main event Marion Firo she
(00:55):
got it done against Rosenama unis some interesting exchange of
words between those two ladies. After that, a really good
day for the French fighters, both women and men across
the board. But without further ado, let's get to the
man we know as Gamblu on Twitter. He is the
host of about business podcast. He is the one and
only loofing a Karla Lou. It's I start there with
(01:16):
the venues because we saw UFC Singapore, we certainly saw
it in PERI. Do you handicap a little bit differently
knowing the flavor being in Australia, how these cards are tilted.
If you see a quote unquote home fighter in a
fight that you think might go the distance.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
It has to be considered Dave. And before we get
too involved in that, let me just say thanks for
having me on these programs are awesome. But yes, not
only does the venue come into play with the handicapping
because usually the cage size is the larger thirty foot cage,
but also because of the geography. And we saw what
(01:56):
seven of eight or six of seven French fighters were
victorious last week, mostly because there were a lot of
them were very good and in the case of the loser,
she's not very good. So it's important for the handicaper
to not only be able to diagnose good fights, but
to be able to bet on those fights. Last week,
(02:18):
Paris ten to one favorites. So those of us searching
for underdogs better be aware that in the last four
fight cards it's been a stompede of favorites, and when
is that going to begin to revert? Hopefully this week.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Yeah, a lot of dogs did not go to heaven,
if you know what I mean in the gambling sense,
certainly last week in Paris. So you look at one
of the biggest dogs on there and it's right there
at the main event, and it is Sean Strickland, USA's
own very outspoken about Israel out of sign. Yeah, we
can understand why the style the last style bender is
a huge favorite here. Minus six fifty is what we're
seeing today on a Tuesday. To come back on Sean
(02:55):
is plus four to seventy. Now here's the thing. We're
not normally in the is of weighing these huge prices.
But if you're looking for pathways to victory for Sean,
it's very difficult. He says, lil he's implementing wrestling, at
least in this camp, and then he makes these bizarre
assertions say yeah, but sometimes I get in the octagon
and not so smart Sean's shows up. What Sean Strickland
(03:19):
shows up? And does it even matter which version shows?
Speaker 2 (03:24):
If I could answer that question, Dave, I wouldn't be here,
I'd be a bazillionaire because that's the real flux of
this fight is Strickland's ability to stick to the plan.
I guarantee listen. Eric Nixon has developed plans for a
lot of great fighters out of extreme Cotur in Vegas.
Strickland's one of them. But when the lights go on,
(03:46):
he reverts to really a reckless nature. And if he
could control that, especially a couple of fights ago against Pereira,
he had the opportunity to expose Pereira by taken him
down before Pereira had a chance to work on takedown defense.
He didn't do it, and the result was he got
kot in the first round. So in this fight, honestly,
(04:11):
if I knew the Strickland, Strickland didn't just work on
grappling for this fight. He's worked on grappling. He's a grappler,
He's capable on the ground. That said, he's a one
to seventy or fighting at eighty five now and is
he's fought at two to zho five fighting at eighty five.
He's a bit undersize, and his ability to stick to
(04:31):
a plan concerns me. If I knew he was focused
like Robert Whitaker coming into this fight, then I would
tell you that this price is up to since Strickland's
abilities are far outway plus four seventy. But I can't
make any statement on Strickland based on the volatility of
(04:52):
his mental frame.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Yeah, because you look at it right, and he's got
a three inch height disadvantage. He's got a four inch
reach disadvantage tochampion. So if this fight stays standing, then
you got to get into this Israel to Sonya, you
know inside the distance props, right, is that the way
you'd look in to shorten it if you if you
wanted to back the champion side.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
I'm not so sure, Dave, because Ada Sonya is po
And this reminds me a little bit of and nobody
watching is going to remember this, but take my word
for it. Years ago, when Cassius Clay changed his name
to Muhammad Ali, a guy named Ernie Terrell wouldn't call
him Ali, kept calling him play, kept calling him play,
(05:30):
and he was badgering Ali like Strickland is badgering out
of Sonya. And so rather than just go wipe him out,
Clay toyed with his food and just slice this poor
Terrell up to Ribbons all the while asking him what
his MF name was. So will out of Sonya take
the same approach, I think so. I think he's out
(05:52):
to hurt Strickland and do damage to him, and I
think we're going to see it's going to be interesting
to see if Strickland's plan to take out us Sonya
out of his mental flame frame works.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
That is fascinating. By the way, I know exactly the
story that you're recounting with Muhammad Ali back in the day,
so there could be a lot of trash talk going
on in the octagon. Four and a half is where
this total is sitting at right now, even money either
way minus a dollar ten. So kind of telling you
there the applied odds that maybe to your point, Lou,
he wants to carry him as we saw a void
Mayweather kind of carry Connor McGregor maybe he carries Strickland
(06:28):
until the end. We'll figure out if that comes before
four and a half rounds or not. On the comain.
This is a really interesting fight because I think if
you said Alexander Volkov against Taichu Ivasa in anywhere else
other than Australia, I mean, the skill set of Volkoff
is it's omnipresent, right, and that's why he's a two
to fifty betting favorite. But we know the showy and
(06:50):
Taichui I Vasa, and we know the power that he has.
Is he live to you as an over two dollars
betting underdog right.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Now, He's way more live on Saturday than he was
in that showing against Pavlovich, and he was dead and
on a second fight in a few months. He had
stayed in the state. So the Pablovich fight you should
wipe out. He's better than that. That said, in this fight,
he's giving up so much height, reach, athleticism, even experience
(07:19):
to Volkov. The question will be how does Tie navigate
space to get inside to deliver shots in a big
cage with a rangy guy like Volkov. I think he's
got a tall task ahead of him. I don't think
Tie is the level of mixed martial artist honestly, that
(07:39):
Volkov is so outside the puncher's chance. I leaned to
Volkov in a really boring fifteen minute decision.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Okay, fifteen minute decision, and right now that total is
sitting at right at one and a half. So if
you seem to think that maybe this will get dragged
on a little bit. Here is that over at her
play for you versus laying it with Volkov.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Yeah, now that I'm seeing that one and a half,
I love that over there. I think that's being disrespectful
to each fighter. Volkov was knocked out once and it
was at the last minute of a fight by the
black Beast who got lucky, right, So Volkov's durable tay
is not going to knock him out. I don't believe
early and all that being said, Volkov is a pitter
(08:26):
patter guy. He's not a huge power guy at six
seven or whatever he is, And I think the over
is enticing.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
Yeah, mansa dollar fifteen. Again that fight you're referencing there,
Derek Lewis was being outclassed for basically two and three
fourths of a third round until that final punch came
and knocked out Alexander Volkov. So that over is very
intriguing right now at minus dollar fifteen. I want to
get to a fighter that I know you've got your
eye on, and this might be a guy in Anton
(08:56):
Turklou that you look at and you go he's got
the best nick name in the UFC is that correctly.
Speaker 3 (09:02):
Well.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
I mean, he's got the most bold nickname in the UFC,
the pleasure Man. He's a Swedish fighter. He's game in
this setup. I think he works himself into a favorable matchup.
He's going to be the taller, younger fighter. I think
he's the five. Both these guys are pretty well rounded,
(09:24):
but I think that based on who I've seen Anton
fight prior, and he's lost both but to killers. I've
found respect in his game. He comes out, he addressed
jait Nell made and went right after him. And if
you are able to do that, few will even get
in the cage with him. As far as Pedro's concerned,
(09:46):
this is his second stint in the UFC. He's really
had dubious results. The two wins he has are against
guys that aren't in the UFC anymore, and every single
professional win in this guy's career is in the first round.
If Anton could weather this fight into the second round,
I believe he stands a tremendous opportunity here. I actually
(10:08):
released him last Saturday during these fights at plus one ten,
knowing that plus number was gonna go away. He's now
minus one fifteen and I would encourage investors that are
interested in Anton to take him now, because I think
that thing could go to one twenty or one twenty
five by the time everybody starts to, you know, wake
up and start betting on these fights.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
Sir KLi, I gotta remember that Jay. They don't even use.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
The jazz.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
The pleasure man. Oh we got about a minute ago.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Are there any other.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Fights on this entire car, because obviously you get to
a pay per view like this. We got some deeper
options out there, lou And again, you gave out Anton
earlier at plus money. Now that's already reversed at min
star fifteen. Anything else across the board that really intrigues
you here on a Tuesday that you might want to
keep an eye on.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Jenkins, Marischal, that's Chepe. That's the fight of the card.
Jenkins is good, but Chepe fought up at one fifty
five on short notice. He gets a full camp going
down to one forty five, he ships in. He's an underdog,
and he's an underdog. Uncle Louis will be taking a long,
hard look.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
At I love it that Uncle Louis looking at that
one very quickly. Thirty seconds tell the people about the
Visits podcast each and every Friday.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
We had a full sweep of the card. Last week
we're running hot and this week we're going to look
at some dogs as just mentioned. Thanks so much for
having me on and I can't wait till the show
breaks so I can listen to the other handicappers.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Thanks Dave, Well, you were all over. It was Cyril
Gon last week. I wish I why didn't I listen
to Lou He nailed that pick in the main event.
All right, when we come back, we're going to Chicago
to catch up with Jordan's showing next here on first right,
(12:09):
DraftKings Sportsbook is giving you plenty of ways to bet
the UFC. Just down with the Draft Kings Sportsbook app.
You're gonna be able to bet. I'm more than just
the main event. DraftKings is great odds and fight lines,
total arounds and features for all MMA events. Elgiblitic restrictions
to apply. See DraftKings dot com. So i as Sportsbook
for all the terms and conditions. Dave Ross back here
in Las Vegas. It is now time to go to
(12:30):
the second city and catch up with our guy, Jordan's Surewood.
You can follow Jordan as I do on X at
Wood on ESPN one time. You know, I'm still not
used to it, Jordan, this whole X Twitter thing, Like
are you are you cool with the transition? You good
with it?
Speaker 3 (12:46):
I just I just refer to it as Twitter.
Speaker 5 (12:51):
None, whether it's MM or not MMA. No, I'm completely
on Twitter. That's what I'm referring it to.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
That's still.
Speaker 5 (12:59):
But if you're doing this, this this thing makes me
think of actually see him punk, Oh really doing X Yeah,
because this is his mind, my.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
Guy Phil Brooks. Yeah, maybe maybe we'll get maybe we'll
get Phill on the show now that he's got some
free time.
Speaker 5 (13:11):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
He followed Jordan Nellwood on ESPN one thousand, of course,
the host of the unnamed MMA podcast, Jordan, before we
get to the main event here, which it doesn't feel
that intriguing, certainly from a book side. Right now, I
want to get to Gabriel Miranda against Shane Young, a
fight earlier in this car that you've got your eye
on here at some plus value for the dog dogs
(13:32):
did not cash in France. What do you make of
this one?
Speaker 5 (13:36):
Yeah, I just think that you're running into a situation
where Gabriel Moranda is going to be able to utilize
a skill set that that Shane Young just hasn't been
able to handle successfully, whether it be in his UFC
career or you know, outside regionally.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
You know, he's a great striker.
Speaker 5 (13:49):
Obviously, he's a lot he's he's a lot of fun
to see perform in the octagon. And there's a reason
why he's on the car because you know, it's his
own country and he's an exciting fighter. But Moran, I think,
just has the recipe. If he avoids, you know, a
firefight and and just does what he's supposed to do,
get this fight to the ground and look for submissions,
you know, he might be able to steal one, or
(14:11):
he might be able to control.
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Young enough to warrant a judge's decision.
Speaker 5 (14:16):
Even though obviously we we were talking about last week Paris,
and you know, look, I was on the right side
of the Jocelyn Edwards fight, but Joceon Edwards won that fight.
So it's it's certainly risky, but but that's how Miranda's
gonna win. Miranda's not gonna win a fight if he's
just gonna stand in trade with Shane Young. You know,
he's too powerful, too exciting, too explosive. But but Young
(14:39):
has lost three fights in a row, so likely I
guess what I'm getting at, David. It's a fade on Young,
and I believe in Miranda we really haven't seen his
true colors in the short amount of time we've seen
him in the UFC.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
He stole my whole volume of the next question, which
was how much does it worry you? Again? We talked
about this a lot, and the reason why we talk
about it is it came to fruition in France. We've
seen this with I don't want to call them hometown decisions,
but the judges seem to be affected by the crowd.
Do you almost look get and say, boy, I hope
you get the finish or the stopatch year earlier so
I don't have to rely on those judges scorecards.
Speaker 5 (15:12):
Yeah, and luckily I get a guy like Miranda, like
he's not gonna want to like you know, risk that
like his bread and butter is getting guys to the
ground and submitting them, so you know, he takes basically
that issue out of if the way that you're looking
at that fight. Young is perfect for that because he
likes to just stand there and throw bombs, land those
significant strikes and maybe get the advantage in the judge's minds.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
But I don't think so. I think we're likely seeing
a finish either Miranda.
Speaker 5 (15:38):
Getting it done on the ground, Young on the feet
with a knockout, and I'm gonna side with the underdog,
just believing again a free fight, losing streak for Young,
He's probably on his way out of the UFC.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Take it out of the judge's hands, That's what they
always tell you. So I think that's what Jordan's getting
at there with some plus money on that side. On
the main card, you look at Tyson Pedro against Anton
Kali here the pleasure man is a now a favorite
open up as a dog at minus a dollar fifteen.
What do you make of the Pedro side here four
years older than the Anton in this one? Are you
(16:08):
back in Tyson? I?
Speaker 5 (16:10):
Look, I think that this is a matchup where like
they want to cater to, you know, the hometown crowd.
They want them getting excited, you know, early on, to
open up the the main card. And look, I think
we talked about it, you know, in his last fight
against the madestas Buccakis, also in Perth.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
Like we saw that as a favoral matchup for the
underdog and he cashed.
Speaker 5 (16:31):
But prior to that, you know, Tyson Pedro like is
an explosive fighter, fought.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
A round round and a half.
Speaker 5 (16:37):
He's got obviously very good resilient jiu Jitsu's got good striking,
and if he's right, if he's healthy, he's right. I
really think that this could be a layup for him.
And look, j Collie looks good enough to survive almost
a route against Johnson Omada before he got submitted.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
So yeah, but that's what you're sighting, and you're siding with.
Speaker 5 (16:55):
A guy that like was on his back and surviving,
and I just think that Tyson Paedro's gonna be able
to do that again. Get this fight quickly to the
ground and look for a very quick submission.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
I mean, you talked about it.
Speaker 5 (17:07):
All the Holden countrymen or most of them are heavy
favorite and there's a reason for that is because of
the stylistic matchups that they're going to have and catering
to that home crowd. Because this fight was kind of
this card was kind of put together, you know, rather quickly,
with a lot of fights falling out so they want
at least the hometown crowd going home happy.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
Yeah, were watching the Tarcoli matchup against You know, look,
Jalton Almda. He's a beast, obviously, and certainly you get
down to the ground. He did survive right until he
couldn't survive any longer, but basically fought as best he
could for about four minutes before that stoppage came to
that end. You look at the total rounds prop here
two and a half. It's choosed heavily to the under
You mentioned Pedro's gas tank that maybe it's about a
(17:47):
round and a half. Are there any other ways that
you're looking at this or is it just let me
just stay in the Pedro side and I don't have
to deal with these totals and or pathway to pathways
to victory.
Speaker 5 (17:56):
Yeah, there just isn't a lot of Like you know,
I guess film if you will into Colin what has
been able to do in the UFC. Obviously two fights
and the second one he went to the judge of scorecards.
But I think that you've got to believe that Taston
Pedro has a decisive advantage on the ground. He's not
gonna waste any time messing with Klie on the feet.
So yeah, the under it, you know, the under is
(18:17):
certainly juiced heavily, and that's because there's a belief in
the finish that either Pedro gets it done really early
or maybe Collie steals one in the second round because
of his strikes. But I stay away from that. I
think that you're probably parlaying a lot of the home
countrymen in to get some value in it, you know,
a three four fight parlay. But obviously, you know, Dave,
there's a risk in doing that. So for me in
my play, it's it's probably Pedro via submission Pedro and
(18:40):
the under at one and a half if you want
to combine you know, some sort of you know formula
with those couple of a place to get some plus money.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Still upset about my valatine of Schipchenko, Alexa Grasso parlay
buster trying to get over that one. Jordan, you mentioned
country man and women. Certainly in this flight card I
do want to get to the main event here with
Israel out of Sonya. Sean Stricker would say, I don't
know what country's that's part of the digs he's going at.
On the last style of bender in this fight. Obviously
in Australia, the last Ale Bender is a six fifty
(19:07):
betting favorite. We understand why, and you kind of look
at it on paper and you go, what's the pathway
to victory for Sean if it's not wrestling? And again
I just look at it and I go, Jordan, if
he actually wrestles, I give him a wrestler's chance. Is
Sean Strickland mentally smart enough if we will to fight
a discipline fight to make this even a worthwhile dog
(19:30):
to back?
Speaker 3 (19:31):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (19:31):
I mean, look, why do we every single Sean Strickland
fight like that? Is he mentally competent, like to do
something he's supposed to do right, and you like to
believe it. And he's a fun fighter and exciting and
you love the trash talking that you know exists.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
And if this fight card was getting.
Speaker 5 (19:45):
More play like he would be getting more run in
the lead up to this fight, well look he stand
he stood in front of Alic per Hey, I just
like got knocked out and I was on the Strickland side,
So was I gonna finally fight smart, take this fight
to the ground and do so? Look what's remember a
couple of things He's taking this fight on short notice.
And I know Sean trick is the type of guy
that lives in the gym like he's ready. I'm not
(20:06):
worried about that, but he is taking this fight on
short notice. He didn't really beat a tough guy to
get here, and I just don't believe that he is,
you know, you know again going to have that smart
gank plan to look for the takedown. The interesting thing,
I think the storyline of the week is Israel out
of Sonia coming out and saying, look, I've never had
a submission in my mixed martial arts career. Sean Strickland's
(20:29):
never been submitted in his mixed martial arts career, So
why not high have the high level kickboxer look for
a submission against you know, the high level.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
Wrestler will college in Stocks Stricklin. Their value is certainly there.
Believe it. If out of sign you can pull that
out of that wrap it out of.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
His hat sixteen to one. If is he gets the
submission which he's never had before. The again, if this
are we going to see these guys all of a
sudden become grapplers in this thing hits the ground and
we're looking for subs. Is that what we really think
we're gonna see?
Speaker 5 (21:02):
I don't believe so I think, you know, Israel out
of Sonya is going to get in there. He's gonna
obviously again come to the belief that he's got a
decisive advantage of over.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
Shaun Stricklin on the feet.
Speaker 5 (21:13):
And I think that people just got to remember that, Yes,
Israel out of Sonya has had two stoppages in his
last two fights.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
But prior to.
Speaker 5 (21:21):
That, this is a guy that goes to the judge
of scorecard. This is a guy that just out points
fighters avoids danger. That's risky Becauseean Strickland will be in
his face for twenty five minutes. But I really think
out of Sonya via points is the smart play. And
you're at plus money right now for the fight to
go to decision.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
You know. The last that I looked at it, Yeah,
that's how he wins. That's how he wins fice these days, Dave.
That's that's how Israel Sonja wins fight.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
And again it's interesting because is he by decision is
plus a dollar fifteen the fight just to go to
the distance plus an dollar ten. Telling you Shoan Strickland
cannot win a decision is basically what that's implying. And
it's got to be Sewan, whether it's his hands or
other ways inside the distance to get this thing done
very quickly. Got about tough forty five seconds. Tell the
people about the Unnamed MMA podcast yep.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Every single week me and Adam Abdallah on the ESPN
Chicago app or whoever you find podcast, we break down
every fight. We recap the fight that was, so we'll
talk about a good day at UFC Paris on the
serial Gan side of things, and then kind of like
look for those advantages opportunities to gain some value, whether
it be in the form of a parlay or a
particular method of victory.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
For the fighters. Each and every single week we break
down the fights.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
How Chicago feeling before the backers come to town.
Speaker 5 (22:35):
There's Packers week, Let's go, let's go there.
Speaker 1 (22:39):
He is everybody the want and only Jordan Sherwood can't
wait to see what happens there, and certainly at UFC
two ninety three, come on back. We're shipping up to
Boston next with Dan Rieland. Start your mornings with Vson
(23:12):
Daily Morning Bets, Josh Appleban gives you every piece of
info you need to be ready for betting the day's
biggest games in just fifteen minutes. He discusses his line,
moment injuries, what you need to be looking at before
you place those wagers. So make the Vson Daily Morning
Bets podcast part of your morning routine. Download and subscribe
wherever you get your podcast. Josh is a Boston legend,
(23:34):
so too is our guy, Dan Rieland. You can follow
him on x or Twitter at Gunna be Reelin. He
is the writer a gamely podcast in Kside Press and
a host of Top Turtle MMA and sgp n MMA.
It's always a mouthful, Dan, because you are a very
very busy man. First of all, in Boston these days,
we haven't had an American side card since they left
(23:56):
Boston three in a row, Wow at Singapore, then we
go to France and now we're going to Australia. How
do you handicap some of these prelium fights on fights
that you think might hit the cards? Again, I asked
this because I think it's very important for fight fans
out there when you're betting these things, to know who
are the local fighters and if the fight has the
propensity to hit the cards. You might want to back
(24:17):
more of the local flavor. We saw it in France again, Yeah, we.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Get see it in France.
Speaker 6 (24:21):
I generally am just as far as handicapping judges outside
of Texas.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
Texas is a huge difference maker. Outside of Texas. I
just try to say to myself, like, look, there's going
to be one or two.
Speaker 6 (24:32):
Active cards, and trying to handicap which ones those are
going to be is tough, right, because there are fights
that are clearly one sided and you're going to see
the visitor coming in win this fight. In Texas, you
can count on every fight being a split decision with
a terrible thirty twenty seven mixed in there somewhere.
Speaker 4 (24:47):
So apart from that, I mean, I just.
Speaker 6 (24:49):
Generally try to think of it as is something I
don't think too much about.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yeah, it comes with the territory that you're going to
be on the wrong side of some things that you go, wow,
had that happen, and probably on the plus side as well.
Let's get to a couple of fights here we have
not discussed so far in this program, and justin Tafa
back in there against Austin Lane. It's nice to see
a Tafa night not fighting Parker Porter. So we get
a different opponent here. Tafa is a right now over
(25:15):
two dollars betting favorite against Lane. Is there a live
dog scenario here? Do you think they we're going to
see the older Tafa here at twenty nine? Maybe cash
this ticket as over two dollars betting favorite.
Speaker 6 (25:27):
You know, I keep wanting to say that heavyweight fighters
are going to learn something, and you know, and they
keep proving me wrong every single time, and it would
be the.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
Right move to grapple Justin Tafa.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
I think Austin Lane, when he does have top control,
actually looks pretty good. I think he's probably get a
box too long, if I'm being honest, Like most heavyweights
stay on the feed for a little bit too long
against Justin Tafa.
Speaker 4 (25:47):
That's why he's had any success in the UFC. He's
also got a good.
Speaker 6 (25:50):
Enough takedown defense that, Like, I don't think Austin Lane
really has the wrestling to get him to the matt
You know, again, if you wanted to take a dabble
on Austin Lane by submission, like he might get him
down enough that he might get that some Maybe there's
some value there, But I mean, really, the value here
for me is I like justin Tapa, I like the
underto even though it's heavily juiced. On the under Austin
(26:13):
Lane just fights too upright and eats too many punches.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
He's gonna take one here from top.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
So if you're looking at the top A side, you're
gonna play the ko prop at mysedar sixty five instead
of land the two eighteen.
Speaker 6 (26:25):
I mean, it's starting to get to the point where
that number is so close that, ye, do I really
need the extra fifty cents there to completely take the
decision out of it, because you know, look, I think
he's gonna knock him out. I think he's gonna throw
one of those overhand rights and land it right on
the big tall guy's chin. But at the same time,
like as that number inches closer and closer together, especially
(26:46):
as we get close to fight time, you have to
ask yourself, is it worth taking the decision out of
the picture for fifty cent?
Speaker 5 (26:53):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (26:53):
I think there's various tude observation there as sometimes we go, well,
it's just it's gotta be this way, and then all
of a sudden it hits the cards inexplicable, and you're
sitting on the KO side, and then that goes by
the wayside when it is just fifty cents more at
minus two eighteen. Let's look at a Mano Cop here
against Flipe Do Santos, and so Santos is a big
dog in this one again against Cop over a three
(27:13):
dollar almost a four hour betting favored. Here he's looked
very explosive at one twenty five. What are you making
of this fight here, Dan?
Speaker 4 (27:22):
I think if you.
Speaker 6 (27:22):
Gave me the Manel Cop who debuted in the UFC
and for his first two fights, I would give Philipe
Dos Santos a chance.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Here.
Speaker 6 (27:29):
Dos Santos is a fun striker, He's electric, he's really energetic.
I had him handicapped to win his Contender Series fight handedly.
I thought he was in great position to get a
UFC contract. But we're talking about a guy short notice,
traveling halfway across the world for his debut, and.
Speaker 4 (27:46):
I the Manel Cap I've seen lately is deadly. You know,
he has now changed.
Speaker 6 (27:50):
Completely who he was where before he was quinte fighting
and just saying you know, it's okay if I go
three hard rounds with Pantosia, because I think I can
go three hard rounds with Pantosia and they wound up
not being all that hard rounds at the end of
the day, and he thought he won, and he clearly
didn't win.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
But the version that I've seen of him the last
few times out.
Speaker 6 (28:09):
The killer be killed, the one the guy who's just
talking in there and looking to finish. I don't like
the idea of a young twenty year old taking a
short notice flight halfway across the world going up against
that version of menl Came.
Speaker 4 (28:20):
I think his striking's too good. I think he can
mix in the wrestling enough.
Speaker 6 (28:23):
I think also, you know, the heat of the moment
is in the adrenaline is just going to get to
do Santos.
Speaker 4 (28:29):
So yeah, I'm on Menel Cape side on this. I
don't love that.
Speaker 6 (28:33):
Number because you know, I don't like la I kind
of truck. Anytime, if I'm looking for something, knowing that
Felipe dos Santos is really tough, you might find yourself
on the over here at plus one forty or if
you like Manil Cape by decision, because I would just
say this Dos Santos is tough and he's a young
kid in there, and yeah, the heat of the moment
might get to him, but I could see him surviving
(28:55):
fifteen hard minutes here.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
And this is where the difference is. Instead of laying
the almost four hours of betting price to right now
on cop, you can get him by a decision at
plus money at plus three fifty. So I think that's
a better way to take a shot here. If we
do like the man outside here as Dan does, I
want to get to another fight here and Juliant Carlos Olberg,
and boy, he looks the part right certainly so far.
And he's another big favorite minus two seventy right now
(29:19):
against Dllwuan Jung. Is there any possibility of an upset here?
Or is Olberg who we think he is?
Speaker 4 (29:27):
I think Olberg's who we think he is.
Speaker 6 (29:29):
And if you look at the two sort of trajectories
that these guys are on, you know, Alberg had that
first fight with Kennedy in Zatchuku Who and it looks
really bad on paper at the end of the day,
because you remember, you know, he was winning that fight.
He was piecing him up, tired out, got finished, and
you've seen pretty much the opposite trajectory out of dollond Jung.
(29:49):
He had a couple of really great fights out of
the gate. He actually beat Kennedyans at Chuku, And when
you look back at those fights, that made me think
he was like that guy, because I did think dilond
Jung was really good.
Speaker 4 (30:00):
At one point.
Speaker 6 (30:00):
You're talking about Mike Rodriguez, You're talking about thick Willie,
William Knight, You're talking about a draw with Sam Alvi.
Those wins in that draw certainly did not age all
that well. Since then, he's been finished by Dustin Jacobi,
he got badly out wrestled by Devin Clark. Granted those
are two kind of better names, but the bottom line
is is against.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
A longer, taller, much better striker.
Speaker 6 (30:24):
I think he just gets paced up from distance here
and I think it's probably not close too. So the odds,
being as wide as they are, I think they're kind
of fitting all right.
Speaker 1 (30:32):
So maybe Oldberg by Ko to look at that if
you want to try to shorten that price tag. Nazat
hack Pross is back on this card. He's almost a
five dollar betting favorite against Landon Kenyons. Again, I'm trying
to find some value in some of these dogs, but Dan,
it feels like a very chalky card here with Nazarat
back in there again minus four seventy today.
Speaker 6 (30:50):
Yeah, and you know me, I'm the guy out there
trying to look for the big underdog of a big
underdog swinger here. The problem with Kenona is is he
just looked like he didn't have the fight IQ to
handle the fight when he fought a higher level of competition.
You know, we saw him on the Ultimate Fighter. He
went in there and he fought Jason Knight, and the
first thing he did was he was like, let's grapple
(31:11):
with Jason Knight, which I mean, like, how.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Do you trust a guy like that?
Speaker 6 (31:15):
How do you trust a guy who wants to grapple
with Jason Knight and immediately puts himself into a triangle. Now,
on the other hand, you could say, sure, he's looked
good in the fights he's been in. He strikes all
right from distance, he mixes it up here and there,
But like, I don't want that guy on short note,
is going in to fight somebody like a gamer in
Nazarra Howcross hock Cross is a guy who knows what
(31:36):
he's doing in there, And you know, a couple of
nice wins in tightan FC don't give me enough confidence
to think you can hang with hok Cross. So yeah,
I think hawkpross here. I also, you know, hock Cross
isn't much of a finisher to me, So like, maybe
if you're looking for some value here, start to look
for the decision prop when the fight rolls around.
Speaker 1 (31:53):
Can I interest you in John mcdesi as over a
two dollars dog against Jamie molarkey and again home totown
flavor here Malarkey right now about two sixty five betting
favorite come back and mcdessi is plus two fifteen.
Speaker 6 (32:06):
I mean, you're really trying to temp me with all
these dogs, and you know me, I want one. But
I don't like John mcdessy in this spot. And the
reason is he's had a massive heightened reach disadvantage here
and we've seen him deal with that before the Agnaso
Agnazio Obaham Monday's fight. He managed, but Bajam Monday's is
a lot more raw than Jamie m'larkey. Jamie m'larkey uses
(32:28):
that jab at distance a little bit better. He's a
little less flashy, he's a little bit more you know,
sticking to the basics, and I think that actually plays
well against Mac this year. I think you also see
him mix in the wrestling once in a while if
he absolutely needs to. You're gonna see like a Gamesman
type performance from Jamie Mlarkey trying to get the home win. Here.
John mcdessey, I just can't imagine gets close enough to
(32:50):
him without eating forty five jabs, and I ultimately I
think we see him lose a volume.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Battle got a minutes ago. Could I interest you in
the biggest dog in the card, and that's the main
event in Seawn's Strickland, the Crazy Sean Strickland, the last
job vender almost a seven dollars betting favorite six and
a half today.
Speaker 6 (33:07):
So you're telling me a guy who couldn't put enough
volume on Jared Cannon here is gonna put enough volume
on Israel eied Tosnya. A guy who had the power
disadvantage against Jared Cannon here, and I mean everybody, he's fat,
He's had a power disadvantage. He's gonna have a power
advantage against his relies. No, he's got a power disadvantage.
He's got a volume disadvantage. Unless you think he's gonna
go in there and wrestle, which I don't believe even
(33:27):
for a second he's going to go in there and wrestle.
He thinks he's the better striker. I mean, I don't
think you can back Sean Strickland. I don't think you
can back him at any price.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
It's tough. I'm trying to get there, but it seems
very hard to get there with Sean Strickland. Damn appreciates you.
Is always my friend. Eagle's coming to town. Get to
win those Patriots up there as they begin NFL Week
one as well there is everybody give him a follow
on Twitter as I do or X at Gumby Vreeland.
When we come back, we've got Britain hass in studio
a wrap up UFC two ninety three right here on
First Strike. We roll on this edition of First Strike
(34:18):
here from Circus Sportsbook in Fabulous Las Vegas, No about it.
Dave Ross joined by Britain.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
Has.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
We pulled him out behind the glass to help break
down UFC two ninety three. You can follow him on
Twitter or X as I do at Britain Has. You
aren't a big Twitter X guy, and now you're in
the game. How does it feel to be out there
with the masses.
Speaker 7 (34:40):
Yeah, it's it's good, you know, it's I like to
see all the bad opinions. I generate content all across
social media sphere. Like to contribute when I can.
Speaker 1 (34:47):
That's basically what it is. It's accessful, it's content creation,
you know what I mean.
Speaker 7 (34:52):
People don't have enough to fight for in their lives,
so you know, they got to defend their favorite athlete,
their favorite movie star in a total contrived situation made
by more talk show hosts.
Speaker 1 (35:01):
I will get on there sometimes in Fight for Tom Cruise.
Let's get to this card here over in Australia. We
talked a lot about it with our guests throughout this program,
and I'm just wondering where you side on it as well.
When you have foreign cards, if you will right, how
much does it affect? Because we know what the UFC does,
They're going to stack fighters from at least close in
proximity and we're going to see this, certainly in the
(35:22):
main event and the co main event here. Do you
look at it and say, if I think that a
fight's going to go the distance, I want to kind
of be on the side more than likely on the
quote unquote home fighter.
Speaker 7 (35:31):
Yeah, I think that for the most part that's the
safe bed just because of the crowd noise. You know,
the crowd is going to be every jab. The home
fighter to Lands is going to get a bigger cheer
than a you know, huge right hand from the visitor,
so to speak. So I think that it has been
your handicaps. If there's a fight that you like to
go the distance, you know, you probably want to side
with the hometown guy. Although there is at least one
fight on this card where I'm kind of leaning the
(35:52):
other way.
Speaker 1 (35:52):
Oh what fight might that be? That where you're going
against the home flavor.
Speaker 7 (35:58):
Yeah, that feels like Jack Jenkins versus Chip A Mariskal. Okay,
so Chip and Mariscal is last his first fight in
the UFC was against Trevor Peak, who was, you know,
kind of one of the young up and comers, who
was one of the most exciting fighters in the organization.
Mariskal is a journeyman, fought in all these low organizations all.
Speaker 3 (36:14):
Over the world.
Speaker 7 (36:15):
Expected to be you know, kind of an easy finish
for Trevor Peak. But the guy's got like twenty pro fights.
Peak had under ten uh, and you know he was
able to weather the storm and then win a decision.
Jack Jenkins finishing machine until he got to the UFC
Contender Series, win by decision, then a split decision, then
a decision. You know, Mareskal is not going to be
(36:36):
afraid to go deep in this fight. Jenkins was a
finished We see it all the time, right, we see guys,
Oh man, this guy's ten and oh with ten finishes, right,
and then they get the UFC and it's like, oh wait,
those punches and kicks that put people on their back
to this, Yeah, in a region organization don't do anything anymore.
So I do think marisklls live in there as a dog.
I think lou was on that as well, which I
love this see that our handicaps are aligned. But but yeah,
(36:58):
so that's one that's one way of a kind of
going counter the narrative of back to the hometown fighters.
But like I said, when you're getting you know, when
you're getting plus one seventy versus a guy who's way
more experienced, guy is not going to be intimidated by
the crowd, and a guy who's already kind of upset
the UFC apple cart. You know he's not gonna be
afraid to be play the spoiler.
Speaker 3 (37:16):
Again.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
Let's get to another fight that I think you might
be going against the local flavor, and that would be
with John mcdessy against Jamie Mularkey. Do you really think
that maybe mcdesty could be live here, because right now
you're getting over two to one if you want to
back the dog here.
Speaker 7 (37:30):
The thing, so macdessi, throughout his UFC career, both these
guys have been in the octagon plenty. We've got a
lot of good numbers. Mcdesse lands more strikes per minute.
He's more accurate, he gets hit less, and he is
more he eludes more strike He's almost got seventy percent
striking defense. That means only thirty percent of the strikes
his opponent's throat are actually landing in some way, shape
or form. So Malarkey is not a physical specimen. He's
(37:53):
a guy that you know, if he has time to
have a game plan, which you know he does on
this so that in this fight, so he's you know,
it's not gonna be like his upset when he had
a new comer in his last fight, and you know,
lost is like a four dollars favorite. But you know,
I just think that mcdesty's been around. I think that,
you know, there's a slight reach advantage for Malarky, but
I don't think that his physical skills are overwhelming enough
that a guy like macdess who's been around forever seeing everyone,
(38:15):
is going to be outmatched in this fight. Like I
think that you know, Malarchy minus two fifty eight probably
gonna be closer to minus three dollars on you know,
the by the time the fight goes off. I see
more like a minus one fifty minus one seventy in
this matchup. So it's more just a value play that
like I don't I don't really.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
See Marky's nose tells you that he's been hit a.
Speaker 7 (38:30):
Lot, Yeah, he does, and he's a guy that's gonna
land a lot. I mean, mcdesty is not exactly the
greatest power puncher in the world, but I think that,
you know, he's gonna be able to land just as
much as Malarky, you know, if not more. You know,
if the numbers would historically you know, hold up in
this match, he's going to dodge more strikes and land
more strikes, So you know, he might have a shot
in this. It's not like I'm not not rushing to say,
oh it's a lot huge miss price, But I do
(38:52):
think that there's value on mcdesty.
Speaker 1 (38:53):
So maybe weight too, because you think this number could
get more inflated on the malarchy side before we get
to Saturday in Australia and maybe you can get even
a better price tag on mcdessey.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (39:04):
No, I think that there's gonna be people who are
just gonna be parlaying all the hometown fighters, So I
think that there's gonna be exposure on that side for
the books. And like I said, mcdessey is a veteran,
he's been around, He lands a lot of punches, and
mcdessy was cavid in his last time out. So it's
always we always you want to see the guy's chin
return before you just assume it's back.
Speaker 1 (39:21):
I'm right there. I'm picking up what you're putting down there.
There's nothing better to a big fight card, certainly like
we have one here at UFC two ninety three, when
you get off on the good foot and you win
that first fight of the night and you might have
a dog. Dogs did not bark in France at all.
But you think maybe we got a Bellatour, a guy
fighting on the Belatour platform that's now moving up to
(39:42):
the UFC, and keeper Crosby is a not a guy
to keep an eye on.
Speaker 7 (39:46):
Yeah, well he's going against you know, Kevin du Say,
French fighter. I don't know why he wasn't on the
card last week. You know there who's you know, his
resume is Heck's Fight League and you know, regional promotions
like that that no one's really ever heard of. Versus
the guy who's Keifer Crosby, who's got some Belotor winds
owner his belt, he's been under the bright lights. You know,
this is a step up for you know, being the
(40:06):
first fight on the early prelims is a step up
for jus it is for Crosby. This is probably you know,
this isn't even close to the biggest spot he's been
in as a dog. I kind of like it. I mean,
I like experience, and I just think that, you know,
a guy making his promotional debut versus somebody who's fought
in the second biggest organization is kind of an interesting
spot as a dog.
Speaker 1 (40:26):
So maybe look to that first fight of the night
here to get off on the good foot with a
dog play in Crosby. Let's get to the main card here,
and it feels like, right now we've got maybe some
split analysts here when you look at Anton against Tyson
Pedro and Pedro here, we get it. We understand that's
going to be the local flavor and the crowd certainly
(40:47):
is going to be rooting for Tyson Pedro. But maybe
are you looking at the other side on this one?
Speaker 3 (40:51):
Uh?
Speaker 7 (40:51):
Yeah, no, I am. I'm liking Anton the action man
Turcoli because you know he's own too in the UFC,
but he's fought pleasure man, Yeah, pleasure man. He's fought
two of the best fighters you know, or two of
the hottest prospects in the division versus Tyson Pedro, who
you know, had like a year two year injury layoff,
came back, got some flashy wins versus you know, huge
(41:12):
names like Harry Hunt, Sucker and Iken Villain Away Va
wh or you know, proverbial punching bags. And then when
he's fought people with a pulse, you know he's lost.
And I don't even know if you can say that,
like modestas spokowskis even has a Pulse. He lost to
him in a decision, so it's like turk Ali is durable.
You know, he did get submitted by Joeltona mighta but
you know that's just gonna happen to most people. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
I mean I'm I just doing it to heavyweights, so
(41:33):
you know what it is, what it is. But I
just think that, you know, I don't think Pedro is
going to be able to get get the finish, and
I think once it gets to a round and a half,
he's just gonna be looking around like, oh no, what do.
Speaker 3 (41:43):
I do now?
Speaker 7 (41:43):
And then turk All he's got almost seven takedowns per
fifteen minutes in the octagon so far, and that's against
good wrestlers, So I mean he's got a chance to
grind this out.
Speaker 4 (41:51):
Now.
Speaker 1 (41:52):
You mentioned the gas tank there of Pedro and again
two and a half here, If you think this fight
ultimately could hit the cards, well, you can get almost
two to one just for the I to go to
the distance. Do you worry about Pedro gassing in that
we could look at Turkli maybe getting a finish here.
Speaker 7 (42:05):
Yeah, I would like Turkli to get a finished more
than I would like this going the distance, just because
I mean, Pedro is going to be trying to, you know,
impress the hometown crowd. He'll be probably taking big swings.
He might get he might get punished for it. But
I think that either way somebody is gonna somebody should
get finished here. You know, I don't I don't think
the contrarian over is the worst thing in the world,
but I would. I mean, I think won the move
(42:26):
on Turcli to go dog to fave is the right move.
Uh and too, I think that win by finish at
almost two to one is a good spot.
Speaker 1 (42:32):
Got a couple more minutes here with Britain Hasse before
we round out this edition of First Strike. I do
want to get to a boy. I don't know if
there's a more popular fighter, certainly in these parts of
the world, maybe in the UFC period. As Tito avasays
I was in Chicago saw him do the shoe shoe
We first hand it's a big deal over there. Is
he going to be doing the shoey Here is almost
a two dollars betting underdog against Alexander VOLKOFV. We know
(42:53):
Volkov's got more skill, It's just that Tye's got that
bam bam power and if he can get to you,
he can get you out of there.
Speaker 7 (43:01):
I think that you've seen my notes. I put ty
Vosa has got an NFL style, not for long, you know,
just like he is kill or be killed.
Speaker 1 (43:07):
Right, he almost has still gone out of there, but
he couldn't.
Speaker 7 (43:10):
But he couldn't. Volkov is gonna be somewhere gone that
He's really good on his feet, great Chris boxing. He's
gonna have a five inch or so reach advantage. And
you know the thing is that Volkov lately, he you know,
he's been saying, I don't want to wait anymore, you
know what I mean. He's been starting his fights early,
and he's got two back to back round one finishes
against two you know, powerful guys, and Jorzino rosenstriking Alexander Romanov.
(43:31):
I think that Toyvasa can run at him, but I
think that he's gonna eat a straight left, you know,
straight jab that's gonna knock his head back. And I
think that Volkov is probably gonna win by finish, and honestly,
I'd be surprised if it goes beyond the first round.
Speaker 1 (43:43):
So maybe would you look at a ten to one
sub I.
Speaker 7 (43:46):
Mean, so there's something so if for some reason Tavasa
gets desperate and tries to tries to shoot, because when
you have somebody with this height advantage in the reach advance, we.
Speaker 3 (43:57):
See it all.
Speaker 7 (43:58):
We actually see it quite often with kers. Oh we
don't even know the news of jiu jitsu. I don't
think Tuvasa is gonna shoot it on purpose. It's only
if he gets kind of gets rattled and he's desperate.
I think that there's a chance that could happen. But
I like Ko and first round take Ko much more.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
Thirty seconds any shot for the mercurial Sean strick one
against Israel Ata Sonya.
Speaker 7 (44:18):
I mean you sure there's a shot if he does
something that we've really never seen him do, which is
fight smart for the full fight, you know, against the
guy who's actually more talented than him. You know, Sean
is like a bullet. He beats up guys that are
not in his class, and then when he meets someone
at his level or above, he kind of loses his
cool and you know, gets punished for it.
Speaker 1 (44:35):
Can't stress this enough. The great job that Britain has
does Rob does Marano Behind the glass, everybody here, the
First Right crew, absolutely fantastic. Thank you to Britain, Lupin,
to Carrol, Jordan Sherwood and Dan Rieland. Enjoy two ninety three.
We'll see you next week right here on First rit
Hey, welcome to First Strike here on Visa and I'm
your host Dave Ross. For the next how we're gonna
break down UFC two ninety three as the UFC stays
away from the continent of the United States and stays overseas.
This week we are in Australia. Oh my goodness, the
return of Israel Arasanna. Of course the last style style
Benner gonna put that middle eight strap on the line
(00:34):
against Sean Strickland before we get there with luf And
to Carrol, Jordan Surewood, Dan Ruland and Britton has Let's
do a recap of what we saw last week at
UFC Pari and really no resistance for the Frenchman in
the main event as Cyril Gane an easy victory in
round two t KO over Sergey Spivack. The polar bear
we saw in the co main event Marion Firo she
(00:55):
got it done against Rosenama unis some interesting exchange of
words between those two ladies. After that, a really good
day for the French fighters, both women and men across
the board. But without further ado, let's get to the
man we know as Gamblu on Twitter. He is the
host of about business podcast. He is the one and
only loofing a Karla Lou. It's I start there with
(01:16):
the venues because we saw UFC Singapore, we certainly saw
it in PERI. Do you handicap a little bit differently
knowing the flavor being in Australia, how these cards are tilted.
If you see a quote unquote home fighter in a
fight that you think might go the distance.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
It has to be considered Dave. And before we get
too involved in that, let me just say thanks for
having me on these programs are awesome. But yes, not
only does the venue come into play with the handicapping
because usually the cage size is the larger thirty foot cage,
but also because of the geography. And we saw what
(01:56):
seven of eight or six of seven French fighters were
victorious last week, mostly because there were a lot of
them were very good and in the case of the loser,
she's not very good. So it's important for the handicaper
to not only be able to diagnose good fights, but
to be able to bet on those fights. Last week,
(02:18):
Paris ten to one favorites. So those of us searching
for underdogs better be aware that in the last four
fight cards it's been a stompede of favorites, and when
is that going to begin to revert? Hopefully this week.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Yeah, a lot of dogs did not go to heaven,
if you know what I mean in the gambling sense,
certainly last week in Paris. So you look at one
of the biggest dogs on there and it's right there
at the main event, and it is Sean Strickland, USA's
own very outspoken about Israel out of sign. Yeah, we
can understand why the style the last style bender is
a huge favorite here. Minus six fifty is what we're
seeing today on a Tuesday. To come back on Sean
(02:55):
is plus four to seventy. Now here's the thing. We're
not normally in the is of weighing these huge prices.
But if you're looking for pathways to victory for Sean,
it's very difficult. He says, lil he's implementing wrestling, at
least in this camp, and then he makes these bizarre
assertions say yeah, but sometimes I get in the octagon
and not so smart Sean's shows up. What Sean Strickland
(03:19):
shows up? And does it even matter which version shows?
Speaker 2 (03:24):
If I could answer that question, Dave, I wouldn't be here,
I'd be a bazillionaire because that's the real flux of
this fight is Strickland's ability to stick to the plan.
I guarantee listen. Eric Nixon has developed plans for a
lot of great fighters out of extreme Cotur in Vegas.
Strickland's one of them. But when the lights go on,
(03:46):
he reverts to really a reckless nature. And if he
could control that, especially a couple of fights ago against Pereira,
he had the opportunity to expose Pereira by taken him
down before Pereira had a chance to work on takedown defense.
He didn't do it, and the result was he got
kot in the first round. So in this fight, honestly,
(04:11):
if I knew the Strickland, Strickland didn't just work on
grappling for this fight. He's worked on grappling. He's a grappler,
He's capable on the ground. That said, he's a one
to seventy or fighting at eighty five now and is
he's fought at two to zho five fighting at eighty five.
He's a bit undersize, and his ability to stick to
(04:31):
a plan concerns me. If I knew he was focused
like Robert Whitaker coming into this fight, then I would
tell you that this price is up to since Strickland's
abilities are far outway plus four seventy. But I can't
make any statement on Strickland based on the volatility of
(04:52):
his mental frame.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Yeah, because you look at it right, and he's got
a three inch height disadvantage. He's got a four inch
reach disadvantage tochampion. So if this fight stays standing, then
you got to get into this Israel to Sonya, you
know inside the distance props, right, is that the way
you'd look in to shorten it if you if you
wanted to back the champion side.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
I'm not so sure, Dave, because Ada Sonya is po
And this reminds me a little bit of and nobody
watching is going to remember this, but take my word
for it. Years ago, when Cassius Clay changed his name
to Muhammad Ali, a guy named Ernie Terrell wouldn't call
him Ali, kept calling him play, kept calling him play,
(05:30):
and he was badgering Ali like Strickland is badgering out
of Sonya. And so rather than just go wipe him out,
Clay toyed with his food and just slice this poor
Terrell up to Ribbons all the while asking him what
his MF name was. So will out of Sonya take
the same approach, I think so. I think he's out
(05:52):
to hurt Strickland and do damage to him, and I
think we're going to see it's going to be interesting
to see if Strickland's plan to take out us Sonya
out of his mental flame frame works.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
That is fascinating. By the way, I know exactly the
story that you're recounting with Muhammad Ali back in the day,
so there could be a lot of trash talk going
on in the octagon. Four and a half is where
this total is sitting at right now, even money either
way minus a dollar ten. So kind of telling you
there the applied odds that maybe to your point, Lou,
he wants to carry him as we saw a void
Mayweather kind of carry Connor McGregor maybe he carries Strickland
(06:28):
until the end. We'll figure out if that comes before
four and a half rounds or not. On the comain.
This is a really interesting fight because I think if
you said Alexander Volkov against Taichu Ivasa in anywhere else
other than Australia, I mean, the skill set of Volkoff
is it's omnipresent, right, and that's why he's a two
to fifty betting favorite. But we know the showy and
(06:50):
Taichui I Vasa, and we know the power that he has.
Is he live to you as an over two dollars
betting underdog right.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Now, He's way more live on Saturday than he was
in that showing against Pavlovich, and he was dead and
on a second fight in a few months. He had
stayed in the state. So the Pablovich fight you should
wipe out. He's better than that. That said, in this fight,
he's giving up so much height, reach, athleticism, even experience
(07:19):
to Volkov. The question will be how does Tie navigate
space to get inside to deliver shots in a big
cage with a rangy guy like Volkov. I think he's
got a tall task ahead of him. I don't think
Tie is the level of mixed martial artist honestly, that
(07:39):
Volkov is so outside the puncher's chance. I leaned to
Volkov in a really boring fifteen minute decision.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Okay, fifteen minute decision, and right now that total is
sitting at right at one and a half. So if
you seem to think that maybe this will get dragged
on a little bit. Here is that over at her
play for you versus laying it with Volkov.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Yeah, now that I'm seeing that one and a half,
I love that over there. I think that's being disrespectful
to each fighter. Volkov was knocked out once and it
was at the last minute of a fight by the
black Beast who got lucky, right, So Volkov's durable tay
is not going to knock him out. I don't believe
early and all that being said, Volkov is a pitter
(08:26):
patter guy. He's not a huge power guy at six
seven or whatever he is, And I think the over
is enticing.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
Yeah, mansa dollar fifteen. Again that fight you're referencing there,
Derek Lewis was being outclassed for basically two and three
fourths of a third round until that final punch came
and knocked out Alexander Volkov. So that over is very
intriguing right now at minus dollar fifteen. I want to
get to a fighter that I know you've got your
eye on, and this might be a guy in Anton
(08:56):
Turklou that you look at and you go he's got
the best nick name in the UFC is that correctly.
Speaker 3 (09:02):
Well.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
I mean, he's got the most bold nickname in the UFC,
the pleasure Man. He's a Swedish fighter. He's game in
this setup. I think he works himself into a favorable matchup.
He's going to be the taller, younger fighter. I think
he's the five. Both these guys are pretty well rounded,
(09:24):
but I think that based on who I've seen Anton
fight prior, and he's lost both but to killers. I've
found respect in his game. He comes out, he addressed
jait Nell made and went right after him. And if
you are able to do that, few will even get
in the cage with him. As far as Pedro's concerned,
(09:46):
this is his second stint in the UFC. He's really
had dubious results. The two wins he has are against
guys that aren't in the UFC anymore, and every single
professional win in this guy's career is in the first round.
If Anton could weather this fight into the second round,
I believe he stands a tremendous opportunity here. I actually
(10:08):
released him last Saturday during these fights at plus one ten,
knowing that plus number was gonna go away. He's now
minus one fifteen and I would encourage investors that are
interested in Anton to take him now, because I think
that thing could go to one twenty or one twenty
five by the time everybody starts to, you know, wake
up and start betting on these fights.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
Sir KLi, I gotta remember that Jay. They don't even use.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
The jazz.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
The pleasure man. Oh we got about a minute ago.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Are there any other.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Fights on this entire car, because obviously you get to
a pay per view like this. We got some deeper
options out there, lou And again, you gave out Anton
earlier at plus money. Now that's already reversed at min
star fifteen. Anything else across the board that really intrigues
you here on a Tuesday that you might want to
keep an eye on.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Jenkins, Marischal, that's Chepe. That's the fight of the card.
Jenkins is good, but Chepe fought up at one fifty
five on short notice. He gets a full camp going
down to one forty five, he ships in. He's an underdog,
and he's an underdog. Uncle Louis will be taking a long,
hard look.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
At I love it that Uncle Louis looking at that
one very quickly. Thirty seconds tell the people about the
Visits podcast each and every Friday.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
We had a full sweep of the card. Last week
we're running hot and this week we're going to look
at some dogs as just mentioned. Thanks so much for
having me on and I can't wait till the show
breaks so I can listen to the other handicappers.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Thanks Dave, Well, you were all over. It was Cyril
Gon last week. I wish I why didn't I listen
to Lou He nailed that pick in the main event.
All right, when we come back, we're going to Chicago
to catch up with Jordan's showing next here on first right,
(12:09):
DraftKings Sportsbook is giving you plenty of ways to bet
the UFC. Just down with the Draft Kings Sportsbook app.
You're gonna be able to bet. I'm more than just
the main event. DraftKings is great odds and fight lines,
total arounds and features for all MMA events. Elgiblitic restrictions
to apply. See DraftKings dot com. So i as Sportsbook
for all the terms and conditions. Dave Ross back here
in Las Vegas. It is now time to go to
(12:30):
the second city and catch up with our guy, Jordan's Surewood.
You can follow Jordan as I do on X at
Wood on ESPN one time. You know, I'm still not
used to it, Jordan, this whole X Twitter thing, Like
are you are you cool with the transition? You good
with it?
Speaker 3 (12:46):
I just I just refer to it as Twitter.
Speaker 5 (12:51):
None, whether it's MM or not MMA. No, I'm completely
on Twitter. That's what I'm referring it to.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
That's still.
Speaker 5 (12:59):
But if you're doing this, this this thing makes me
think of actually see him punk, Oh really doing X Yeah,
because this is his mind, my.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
Guy Phil Brooks. Yeah, maybe maybe we'll get maybe we'll
get Phill on the show now that he's got some
free time.
Speaker 5 (13:11):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
He followed Jordan Nellwood on ESPN one thousand, of course,
the host of the unnamed MMA podcast, Jordan, before we
get to the main event here, which it doesn't feel
that intriguing, certainly from a book side. Right now, I
want to get to Gabriel Miranda against Shane Young, a
fight earlier in this car that you've got your eye
on here at some plus value for the dog dogs
(13:32):
did not cash in France. What do you make of
this one?
Speaker 5 (13:36):
Yeah, I just think that you're running into a situation
where Gabriel Moranda is going to be able to utilize
a skill set that that Shane Young just hasn't been
able to handle successfully, whether it be in his UFC
career or you know, outside regionally.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
You know, he's a great striker.
Speaker 5 (13:49):
Obviously, he's a lot he's he's a lot of fun
to see perform in the octagon. And there's a reason
why he's on the car because you know, it's his
own country and he's an exciting fighter. But Moran, I think,
just has the recipe. If he avoids, you know, a
firefight and and just does what he's supposed to do,
get this fight to the ground and look for submissions,
you know, he might be able to steal one, or
(14:11):
he might be able to control.
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Young enough to warrant a judge's decision.
Speaker 5 (14:16):
Even though obviously we we were talking about last week Paris,
and you know, look, I was on the right side
of the Jocelyn Edwards fight, but Joceon Edwards won that fight.
So it's it's certainly risky, but but that's how Miranda's
gonna win. Miranda's not gonna win a fight if he's
just gonna stand in trade with Shane Young. You know,
he's too powerful, too exciting, too explosive. But but Young
(14:39):
has lost three fights in a row, so likely I
guess what I'm getting at, David. It's a fade on Young,
and I believe in Miranda we really haven't seen his
true colors in the short amount of time we've seen
him in the UFC.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
He stole my whole volume of the next question, which
was how much does it worry you? Again? We talked
about this a lot, and the reason why we talk
about it is it came to fruition in France. We've
seen this with I don't want to call them hometown decisions,
but the judges seem to be affected by the crowd.
Do you almost look get and say, boy, I hope
you get the finish or the stopatch year earlier so
I don't have to rely on those judges scorecards.
Speaker 5 (15:12):
Yeah, and luckily I get a guy like Miranda, like
he's not gonna want to like you know, risk that
like his bread and butter is getting guys to the
ground and submitting them, so you know, he takes basically
that issue out of if the way that you're looking
at that fight. Young is perfect for that because he
likes to just stand there and throw bombs, land those
significant strikes and maybe get the advantage in the judge's minds.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
But I don't think so. I think we're likely seeing
a finish either Miranda.
Speaker 5 (15:38):
Getting it done on the ground, Young on the feet
with a knockout, and I'm gonna side with the underdog,
just believing again a free fight, losing streak for Young,
He's probably on his way out of the UFC.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Take it out of the judge's hands, That's what they
always tell you. So I think that's what Jordan's getting
at there with some plus money on that side. On
the main card, you look at Tyson Pedro against Anton
Kali here the pleasure man is a now a favorite
open up as a dog at minus a dollar fifteen.
What do you make of the Pedro side here four
years older than the Anton in this one? Are you
(16:08):
back in Tyson? I?
Speaker 5 (16:10):
Look, I think that this is a matchup where like
they want to cater to, you know, the hometown crowd.
They want them getting excited, you know, early on, to
open up the the main card. And look, I think
we talked about it, you know, in his last fight
against the madestas Buccakis, also in Perth.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
Like we saw that as a favoral matchup for the
underdog and he cashed.
Speaker 5 (16:31):
But prior to that, you know, Tyson Pedro like is
an explosive fighter, fought.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
A round round and a half.
Speaker 5 (16:37):
He's got obviously very good resilient jiu Jitsu's got good striking,
and if he's right, if he's healthy, he's right. I
really think that this could be a layup for him.
And look, j Collie looks good enough to survive almost
a route against Johnson Omada before he got submitted.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
So yeah, but that's what you're sighting, and you're siding with.
Speaker 5 (16:55):
A guy that like was on his back and surviving,
and I just think that Tyson Paedro's gonna be able
to do that again. Get this fight quickly to the
ground and look for a very quick submission.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
I mean, you talked about it.
Speaker 5 (17:07):
All the Holden countrymen or most of them are heavy
favorite and there's a reason for that is because of
the stylistic matchups that they're going to have and catering
to that home crowd. Because this fight was kind of
this card was kind of put together, you know, rather quickly,
with a lot of fights falling out so they want
at least the hometown crowd going home happy.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
Yeah, were watching the Tarcoli matchup against You know, look,
Jalton Almda. He's a beast, obviously, and certainly you get
down to the ground. He did survive right until he
couldn't survive any longer, but basically fought as best he
could for about four minutes before that stoppage came to
that end. You look at the total rounds prop here
two and a half. It's choosed heavily to the under
You mentioned Pedro's gas tank that maybe it's about a
(17:47):
round and a half. Are there any other ways that
you're looking at this or is it just let me
just stay in the Pedro side and I don't have
to deal with these totals and or pathway to pathways
to victory.
Speaker 5 (17:56):
Yeah, there just isn't a lot of Like you know,
I guess film if you will into Colin what has
been able to do in the UFC. Obviously two fights
and the second one he went to the judge of scorecards.
But I think that you've got to believe that Taston
Pedro has a decisive advantage on the ground. He's not
gonna waste any time messing with Klie on the feet.
So yeah, the under it, you know, the under is
(18:17):
certainly juiced heavily, and that's because there's a belief in
the finish that either Pedro gets it done really early
or maybe Collie steals one in the second round because
of his strikes. But I stay away from that. I
think that you're probably parlaying a lot of the home
countrymen in to get some value in it, you know,
a three four fight parlay. But obviously, you know, Dave,
there's a risk in doing that. So for me in
my play, it's it's probably Pedro via submission Pedro and
(18:40):
the under at one and a half if you want
to combine you know, some sort of you know formula
with those couple of a place to get some plus money.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Still upset about my valatine of Schipchenko, Alexa Grasso parlay
buster trying to get over that one. Jordan, you mentioned
country man and women. Certainly in this flight card I
do want to get to the main event here with
Israel out of Sonya. Sean Stricker would say, I don't
know what country's that's part of the digs he's going at.
On the last style of bender in this fight. Obviously
in Australia, the last Ale Bender is a six fifty
(19:07):
betting favorite. We understand why, and you kind of look
at it on paper and you go, what's the pathway
to victory for Sean if it's not wrestling? And again
I just look at it and I go, Jordan, if
he actually wrestles, I give him a wrestler's chance. Is
Sean Strickland mentally smart enough if we will to fight
a discipline fight to make this even a worthwhile dog
(19:30):
to back?
Speaker 3 (19:31):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (19:31):
I mean, look, why do we every single Sean Strickland
fight like that? Is he mentally competent, like to do
something he's supposed to do right, and you like to
believe it. And he's a fun fighter and exciting and
you love the trash talking that you know exists.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
And if this fight card was getting.
Speaker 5 (19:45):
More play like he would be getting more run in
the lead up to this fight, well look he stand
he stood in front of Alic per Hey, I just
like got knocked out and I was on the Strickland side,
So was I gonna finally fight smart, take this fight
to the ground and do so? Look what's remember a
couple of things He's taking this fight on short notice.
And I know Sean trick is the type of guy
that lives in the gym like he's ready. I'm not
(20:06):
worried about that, but he is taking this fight on
short notice. He didn't really beat a tough guy to
get here, and I just don't believe that he is,
you know, you know again going to have that smart
gank plan to look for the takedown. The interesting thing,
I think the storyline of the week is Israel out
of Sonia coming out and saying, look, I've never had
a submission in my mixed martial arts career. Sean Strickland's
(20:29):
never been submitted in his mixed martial arts career, So
why not high have the high level kickboxer look for
a submission against you know, the high level.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
Wrestler will college in Stocks Stricklin. Their value is certainly there.
Believe it. If out of sign you can pull that
out of that wrap it out of.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
His hat sixteen to one. If is he gets the
submission which he's never had before. The again, if this
are we going to see these guys all of a
sudden become grapplers in this thing hits the ground and
we're looking for subs. Is that what we really think
we're gonna see?
Speaker 5 (21:02):
I don't believe so I think, you know, Israel out
of Sonya is going to get in there. He's gonna
obviously again come to the belief that he's got a
decisive advantage of over.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
Shaun Stricklin on the feet.
Speaker 5 (21:13):
And I think that people just got to remember that, Yes,
Israel out of Sonya has had two stoppages in his
last two fights.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
But prior to.
Speaker 5 (21:21):
That, this is a guy that goes to the judge
of scorecard. This is a guy that just out points
fighters avoids danger. That's risky Becauseean Strickland will be in
his face for twenty five minutes. But I really think
out of Sonya via points is the smart play. And
you're at plus money right now for the fight to
go to decision.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
You know. The last that I looked at it, Yeah,
that's how he wins. That's how he wins fice these days, Dave.
That's that's how Israel Sonja wins fight.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
And again it's interesting because is he by decision is
plus a dollar fifteen the fight just to go to
the distance plus an dollar ten. Telling you Shoan Strickland
cannot win a decision is basically what that's implying. And
it's got to be Sewan, whether it's his hands or
other ways inside the distance to get this thing done
very quickly. Got about tough forty five seconds. Tell the
people about the Unnamed MMA podcast yep.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Every single week me and Adam Abdallah on the ESPN
Chicago app or whoever you find podcast, we break down
every fight. We recap the fight that was, so we'll
talk about a good day at UFC Paris on the
serial Gan side of things, and then kind of like
look for those advantages opportunities to gain some value, whether
it be in the form of a parlay or a
particular method of victory.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
For the fighters. Each and every single week we break
down the fights.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
How Chicago feeling before the backers come to town.
Speaker 5 (22:35):
There's Packers week, Let's go, let's go there.
Speaker 1 (22:39):
He is everybody the want and only Jordan Sherwood can't
wait to see what happens there, and certainly at UFC
two ninety three, come on back. We're shipping up to
Boston next with Dan Rieland. Start your mornings with Vson
(23:12):
Daily Morning Bets, Josh Appleban gives you every piece of
info you need to be ready for betting the day's
biggest games in just fifteen minutes. He discusses his line,
moment injuries, what you need to be looking at before
you place those wagers. So make the Vson Daily Morning
Bets podcast part of your morning routine. Download and subscribe
wherever you get your podcast. Josh is a Boston legend,
(23:34):
so too is our guy, Dan Rieland. You can follow
him on x or Twitter at Gunna be Reelin. He
is the writer a gamely podcast in Kside Press and
a host of Top Turtle MMA and sgp n MMA.
It's always a mouthful, Dan, because you are a very
very busy man. First of all, in Boston these days,
we haven't had an American side card since they left
(23:56):
Boston three in a row, Wow at Singapore, then we
go to France and now we're going to Australia. How
do you handicap some of these prelium fights on fights
that you think might hit the cards? Again, I asked
this because I think it's very important for fight fans
out there when you're betting these things, to know who
are the local fighters and if the fight has the
propensity to hit the cards. You might want to back
(24:17):
more of the local flavor. We saw it in France again, Yeah, we.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Get see it in France.
Speaker 6 (24:21):
I generally am just as far as handicapping judges outside
of Texas.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
Texas is a huge difference maker. Outside of Texas. I
just try to say to myself, like, look, there's going
to be one or two.
Speaker 6 (24:32):
Active cards, and trying to handicap which ones those are
going to be is tough, right, because there are fights
that are clearly one sided and you're going to see
the visitor coming in win this fight. In Texas, you
can count on every fight being a split decision with
a terrible thirty twenty seven mixed in there somewhere.
Speaker 4 (24:47):
So apart from that, I mean, I just.
Speaker 6 (24:49):
Generally try to think of it as is something I
don't think too much about.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yeah, it comes with the territory that you're going to
be on the wrong side of some things that you go, wow,
had that happen, and probably on the plus side as well.
Let's get to a couple of fights here we have
not discussed so far in this program, and justin Tafa
back in there against Austin Lane. It's nice to see
a Tafa night not fighting Parker Porter. So we get
a different opponent here. Tafa is a right now over
(25:15):
two dollars betting favorite against Lane. Is there a live
dog scenario here? Do you think they we're going to
see the older Tafa here at twenty nine? Maybe cash
this ticket as over two dollars betting favorite.
Speaker 6 (25:27):
You know, I keep wanting to say that heavyweight fighters
are going to learn something, and you know, and they
keep proving me wrong every single time, and it would
be the.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
Right move to grapple Justin Tafa.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
I think Austin Lane, when he does have top control,
actually looks pretty good. I think he's probably get a
box too long, if I'm being honest, Like most heavyweights
stay on the feed for a little bit too long
against Justin Tafa.
Speaker 4 (25:47):
That's why he's had any success in the UFC. He's
also got a good.
Speaker 6 (25:50):
Enough takedown defense that, Like, I don't think Austin Lane
really has the wrestling to get him to the matt
You know, again, if you wanted to take a dabble
on Austin Lane by submission, like he might get him
down enough that he might get that some Maybe there's
some value there, But I mean, really, the value here
for me is I like justin Tapa, I like the
underto even though it's heavily juiced. On the under Austin
(26:13):
Lane just fights too upright and eats too many punches.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
He's gonna take one here from top.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
So if you're looking at the top A side, you're
gonna play the ko prop at mysedar sixty five instead
of land the two eighteen.
Speaker 6 (26:25):
I mean, it's starting to get to the point where
that number is so close that, ye, do I really
need the extra fifty cents there to completely take the
decision out of it, because you know, look, I think
he's gonna knock him out. I think he's gonna throw
one of those overhand rights and land it right on
the big tall guy's chin. But at the same time,
like as that number inches closer and closer together, especially
(26:46):
as we get close to fight time, you have to
ask yourself, is it worth taking the decision out of
the picture for fifty cent?
Speaker 5 (26:53):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (26:53):
I think there's various tude observation there as sometimes we go, well,
it's just it's gotta be this way, and then all
of a sudden it hits the cards inexplicable, and you're
sitting on the KO side, and then that goes by
the wayside when it is just fifty cents more at
minus two eighteen. Let's look at a Mano Cop here
against Flipe Do Santos, and so Santos is a big
dog in this one again against Cop over a three
(27:13):
dollar almost a four hour betting favored. Here he's looked
very explosive at one twenty five. What are you making
of this fight here, Dan?
Speaker 4 (27:22):
I think if you.
Speaker 6 (27:22):
Gave me the Manel Cop who debuted in the UFC
and for his first two fights, I would give Philipe
Dos Santos a chance.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Here.
Speaker 6 (27:29):
Dos Santos is a fun striker, He's electric, he's really energetic.
I had him handicapped to win his Contender Series fight handedly.
I thought he was in great position to get a
UFC contract. But we're talking about a guy short notice,
traveling halfway across the world for his debut, and.
Speaker 4 (27:46):
I the Manel Cap I've seen lately is deadly. You know,
he has now changed.
Speaker 6 (27:50):
Completely who he was where before he was quinte fighting
and just saying you know, it's okay if I go
three hard rounds with Pantosia, because I think I can
go three hard rounds with Pantosia and they wound up
not being all that hard rounds at the end of
the day, and he thought he won, and he clearly
didn't win.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
But the version that I've seen of him the last
few times out.
Speaker 6 (28:09):
The killer be killed, the one the guy who's just
talking in there and looking to finish. I don't like
the idea of a young twenty year old taking a
short notice flight halfway across the world going up against
that version of menl Came.
Speaker 4 (28:20):
I think his striking's too good. I think he can
mix in the wrestling enough.
Speaker 6 (28:23):
I think also, you know, the heat of the moment
is in the adrenaline is just going to get to
do Santos.
Speaker 4 (28:29):
So yeah, I'm on Menel Cape side on this. I
don't love that.
Speaker 6 (28:33):
Number because you know, I don't like la I kind
of truck. Anytime, if I'm looking for something, knowing that
Felipe dos Santos is really tough, you might find yourself
on the over here at plus one forty or if
you like Manil Cape by decision, because I would just
say this Dos Santos is tough and he's a young
kid in there, and yeah, the heat of the moment
might get to him, but I could see him surviving
(28:55):
fifteen hard minutes here.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
And this is where the difference is. Instead of laying
the almost four hours of betting price to right now
on cop, you can get him by a decision at
plus money at plus three fifty. So I think that's
a better way to take a shot here. If we
do like the man outside here as Dan does, I
want to get to another fight here and Juliant Carlos Olberg,
and boy, he looks the part right certainly so far.
And he's another big favorite minus two seventy right now
(29:19):
against Dllwuan Jung. Is there any possibility of an upset here?
Or is Olberg who we think he is?
Speaker 4 (29:27):
I think Olberg's who we think he is.
Speaker 6 (29:29):
And if you look at the two sort of trajectories
that these guys are on, you know, Alberg had that
first fight with Kennedy in Zatchuku Who and it looks
really bad on paper at the end of the day,
because you remember, you know, he was winning that fight.
He was piecing him up, tired out, got finished, and
you've seen pretty much the opposite trajectory out of dollond Jung.
(29:49):
He had a couple of really great fights out of
the gate. He actually beat Kennedyans at Chuku, And when
you look back at those fights, that made me think
he was like that guy, because I did think dilond
Jung was really good.
Speaker 4 (30:00):
At one point.
Speaker 6 (30:00):
You're talking about Mike Rodriguez, You're talking about thick Willie,
William Knight, You're talking about a draw with Sam Alvi.
Those wins in that draw certainly did not age all
that well. Since then, he's been finished by Dustin Jacobi,
he got badly out wrestled by Devin Clark. Granted those
are two kind of better names, but the bottom line
is is against.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
A longer, taller, much better striker.
Speaker 6 (30:24):
I think he just gets paced up from distance here
and I think it's probably not close too. So the odds,
being as wide as they are, I think they're kind
of fitting all right.
Speaker 1 (30:32):
So maybe Oldberg by Ko to look at that if
you want to try to shorten that price tag. Nazat
hack Pross is back on this card. He's almost a
five dollar betting favorite against Landon Kenyons. Again, I'm trying
to find some value in some of these dogs, but Dan,
it feels like a very chalky card here with Nazarat
back in there again minus four seventy today.
Speaker 6 (30:50):
Yeah, and you know me, I'm the guy out there
trying to look for the big underdog of a big
underdog swinger here. The problem with Kenona is is he
just looked like he didn't have the fight IQ to
handle the fight when he fought a higher level of competition.
You know, we saw him on the Ultimate Fighter. He
went in there and he fought Jason Knight, and the
first thing he did was he was like, let's grapple
(31:11):
with Jason Knight, which I mean, like, how.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Do you trust a guy like that?
Speaker 6 (31:15):
How do you trust a guy who wants to grapple
with Jason Knight and immediately puts himself into a triangle. Now,
on the other hand, you could say, sure, he's looked
good in the fights he's been in. He strikes all
right from distance, he mixes it up here and there,
But like, I don't want that guy on short note,
is going in to fight somebody like a gamer in
Nazarra Howcross hock Cross is a guy who knows what
(31:36):
he's doing in there, And you know, a couple of
nice wins in tightan FC don't give me enough confidence
to think you can hang with hok Cross. So yeah,
I think hawkpross here. I also, you know, hock Cross
isn't much of a finisher to me, So like, maybe
if you're looking for some value here, start to look
for the decision prop when the fight rolls around.
Speaker 1 (31:53):
Can I interest you in John mcdesi as over a
two dollars dog against Jamie molarkey and again home totown
flavor here Malarkey right now about two sixty five betting
favorite come back and mcdessi is plus two fifteen.
Speaker 6 (32:06):
I mean, you're really trying to temp me with all
these dogs, and you know me, I want one. But
I don't like John mcdessy in this spot. And the
reason is he's had a massive heightened reach disadvantage here
and we've seen him deal with that before the Agnaso
Agnazio Obaham Monday's fight. He managed, but Bajam Monday's is
a lot more raw than Jamie m'larkey. Jamie m'larkey uses
(32:28):
that jab at distance a little bit better. He's a
little less flashy, he's a little bit more you know,
sticking to the basics, and I think that actually plays
well against Mac this year. I think you also see
him mix in the wrestling once in a while if
he absolutely needs to. You're gonna see like a Gamesman
type performance from Jamie Mlarkey trying to get the home win. Here.
John mcdessey, I just can't imagine gets close enough to
(32:50):
him without eating forty five jabs, and I ultimately I
think we see him lose a volume.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Battle got a minutes ago. Could I interest you in
the biggest dog in the card, and that's the main
event in Seawn's Strickland, the Crazy Sean Strickland, the last
job vender almost a seven dollars betting favorite six and
a half today.
Speaker 6 (33:07):
So you're telling me a guy who couldn't put enough
volume on Jared Cannon here is gonna put enough volume
on Israel eied Tosnya. A guy who had the power
disadvantage against Jared Cannon here, and I mean everybody, he's fat,
He's had a power disadvantage. He's gonna have a power
advantage against his relies. No, he's got a power disadvantage.
He's got a volume disadvantage. Unless you think he's gonna
go in there and wrestle, which I don't believe even
(33:27):
for a second he's going to go in there and wrestle.
He thinks he's the better striker. I mean, I don't
think you can back Sean Strickland. I don't think you
can back him at any price.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
It's tough. I'm trying to get there, but it seems
very hard to get there with Sean Strickland. Damn appreciates you.
Is always my friend. Eagle's coming to town. Get to
win those Patriots up there as they begin NFL Week
one as well there is everybody give him a follow
on Twitter as I do or X at Gumby Vreeland.
When we come back, we've got Britain hass in studio
a wrap up UFC two ninety three right here on
First Strike. We roll on this edition of First Strike
(34:18):
here from Circus Sportsbook in Fabulous Las Vegas, No about it.
Dave Ross joined by Britain.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
Has.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
We pulled him out behind the glass to help break
down UFC two ninety three. You can follow him on
Twitter or X as I do at Britain Has. You
aren't a big Twitter X guy, and now you're in
the game. How does it feel to be out there
with the masses.
Speaker 7 (34:40):
Yeah, it's it's good, you know, it's I like to
see all the bad opinions. I generate content all across
social media sphere. Like to contribute when I can.
Speaker 1 (34:47):
That's basically what it is. It's accessful, it's content creation,
you know what I mean.
Speaker 7 (34:52):
People don't have enough to fight for in their lives,
so you know, they got to defend their favorite athlete,
their favorite movie star in a total contrived situation made
by more talk show hosts.
Speaker 1 (35:01):
I will get on there sometimes in Fight for Tom Cruise.
Let's get to this card here over in Australia. We
talked a lot about it with our guests throughout this program,
and I'm just wondering where you side on it as well.
When you have foreign cards, if you will right, how
much does it affect? Because we know what the UFC does,
They're going to stack fighters from at least close in
proximity and we're going to see this, certainly in the
(35:22):
main event and the co main event here. Do you
look at it and say, if I think that a
fight's going to go the distance, I want to kind
of be on the side more than likely on the
quote unquote home fighter.
Speaker 7 (35:31):
Yeah, I think that for the most part that's the
safe bed just because of the crowd noise. You know,
the crowd is going to be every jab. The home
fighter to Lands is going to get a bigger cheer
than a you know, huge right hand from the visitor,
so to speak. So I think that it has been
your handicaps. If there's a fight that you like to
go the distance, you know, you probably want to side
with the hometown guy. Although there is at least one
fight on this card where I'm kind of leaning the
(35:52):
other way.
Speaker 1 (35:52):
Oh what fight might that be? That where you're going
against the home flavor.
Speaker 7 (35:58):
Yeah, that feels like Jack Jenkins versus Chip A Mariskal. Okay,
so Chip and Mariscal is last his first fight in
the UFC was against Trevor Peak, who was, you know,
kind of one of the young up and comers, who
was one of the most exciting fighters in the organization.
Mariskal is a journeyman, fought in all these low organizations all.
Speaker 3 (36:14):
Over the world.
Speaker 7 (36:15):
Expected to be you know, kind of an easy finish
for Trevor Peak. But the guy's got like twenty pro fights.
Peak had under ten uh, and you know he was
able to weather the storm and then win a decision.
Jack Jenkins finishing machine until he got to the UFC
Contender Series, win by decision, then a split decision, then
a decision. You know, Mareskal is not going to be
(36:36):
afraid to go deep in this fight. Jenkins was a
finished We see it all the time, right, we see guys,
Oh man, this guy's ten and oh with ten finishes, right,
and then they get the UFC and it's like, oh wait,
those punches and kicks that put people on their back
to this, Yeah, in a region organization don't do anything anymore.
So I do think marisklls live in there as a dog.
I think lou was on that as well, which I
love this see that our handicaps are aligned. But but yeah,
(36:58):
so that's one that's one way of a kind of
going counter the narrative of back to the hometown fighters.
But like I said, when you're getting you know, when
you're getting plus one seventy versus a guy who's way
more experienced, guy is not going to be intimidated by
the crowd, and a guy who's already kind of upset
the UFC apple cart. You know he's not gonna be
afraid to be play the spoiler.
Speaker 3 (37:16):
Again.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
Let's get to another fight that I think you might
be going against the local flavor, and that would be
with John mcdessy against Jamie Mularkey. Do you really think
that maybe mcdesty could be live here, because right now
you're getting over two to one if you want to
back the dog here.
Speaker 7 (37:30):
The thing, so macdessi, throughout his UFC career, both these
guys have been in the octagon plenty. We've got a
lot of good numbers. Mcdesse lands more strikes per minute.
He's more accurate, he gets hit less, and he is
more he eludes more strike He's almost got seventy percent
striking defense. That means only thirty percent of the strikes
his opponent's throat are actually landing in some way, shape
or form. So Malarkey is not a physical specimen. He's
(37:53):
a guy that you know, if he has time to
have a game plan, which you know he does on
this so that in this fight, so he's you know,
it's not gonna be like his upset when he had
a new comer in his last fight, and you know,
lost is like a four dollars favorite. But you know,
I just think that mcdesty's been around. I think that,
you know, there's a slight reach advantage for Malarky, but
I don't think that his physical skills are overwhelming enough
that a guy like macdess who's been around forever seeing everyone,
(38:15):
is going to be outmatched in this fight. Like I
think that you know, Malarchy minus two fifty eight probably
gonna be closer to minus three dollars on you know,
the by the time the fight goes off. I see
more like a minus one fifty minus one seventy in
this matchup. So it's more just a value play that
like I don't I don't really.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
See Marky's nose tells you that he's been hit a.
Speaker 7 (38:30):
Lot, Yeah, he does, and he's a guy that's gonna
land a lot. I mean, mcdesty is not exactly the
greatest power puncher in the world, but I think that,
you know, he's gonna be able to land just as
much as Malarky, you know, if not more. You know,
if the numbers would historically you know, hold up in
this match, he's going to dodge more strikes and land
more strikes, So you know, he might have a shot
in this. It's not like I'm not not rushing to say,
oh it's a lot huge miss price, But I do
(38:52):
think that there's value on mcdesty.
Speaker 1 (38:53):
So maybe weight too, because you think this number could
get more inflated on the malarchy side before we get
to Saturday in Australia and maybe you can get even
a better price tag on mcdessey.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (39:04):
No, I think that there's gonna be people who are
just gonna be parlaying all the hometown fighters, So I
think that there's gonna be exposure on that side for
the books. And like I said, mcdessey is a veteran,
he's been around, He lands a lot of punches, and
mcdessy was cavid in his last time out. So it's
always we always you want to see the guy's chin
return before you just assume it's back.
Speaker 1 (39:21):
I'm right there. I'm picking up what you're putting down there.
There's nothing better to a big fight card, certainly like
we have one here at UFC two ninety three, when
you get off on the good foot and you win
that first fight of the night and you might have
a dog. Dogs did not bark in France at all.
But you think maybe we got a Bellatour, a guy
fighting on the Belatour platform that's now moving up to
(39:42):
the UFC, and keeper Crosby is a not a guy
to keep an eye on.
Speaker 7 (39:46):
Yeah, well he's going against you know, Kevin du Say,
French fighter. I don't know why he wasn't on the
card last week. You know there who's you know, his
resume is Heck's Fight League and you know, regional promotions
like that that no one's really ever heard of. Versus
the guy who's Keifer Crosby, who's got some Belotor winds
owner his belt, he's been under the bright lights. You know,
this is a step up for you know, being the
(40:06):
first fight on the early prelims is a step up
for jus it is for Crosby. This is probably you know,
this isn't even close to the biggest spot he's been
in as a dog. I kind of like it. I mean,
I like experience, and I just think that, you know,
a guy making his promotional debut versus somebody who's fought
in the second biggest organization is kind of an interesting
spot as a dog.
Speaker 1 (40:26):
So maybe look to that first fight of the night
here to get off on the good foot with a
dog play in Crosby. Let's get to the main card here,
and it feels like, right now we've got maybe some
split analysts here when you look at Anton against Tyson
Pedro and Pedro here, we get it. We understand that's
going to be the local flavor and the crowd certainly
(40:47):
is going to be rooting for Tyson Pedro. But maybe
are you looking at the other side on this one?
Speaker 3 (40:51):
Uh?
Speaker 7 (40:51):
Yeah, no, I am. I'm liking Anton the action man
Turcoli because you know he's own too in the UFC,
but he's fought pleasure man, Yeah, pleasure man. He's fought
two of the best fighters you know, or two of
the hottest prospects in the division versus Tyson Pedro, who
you know, had like a year two year injury layoff,
came back, got some flashy wins versus you know, huge
(41:12):
names like Harry Hunt, Sucker and Iken Villain Away Va
wh or you know, proverbial punching bags. And then when
he's fought people with a pulse, you know he's lost.
And I don't even know if you can say that,
like modestas spokowskis even has a Pulse. He lost to
him in a decision, so it's like turk Ali is durable.
You know, he did get submitted by Joeltona mighta but
you know that's just gonna happen to most people. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
I mean I'm I just doing it to heavyweights, so
(41:33):
you know what it is, what it is. But I
just think that, you know, I don't think Pedro is
going to be able to get get the finish, and
I think once it gets to a round and a half,
he's just gonna be looking around like, oh no, what do.
Speaker 3 (41:43):
I do now?
Speaker 7 (41:43):
And then turk All he's got almost seven takedowns per
fifteen minutes in the octagon so far, and that's against
good wrestlers, So I mean he's got a chance to
grind this out.
Speaker 4 (41:51):
Now.
Speaker 1 (41:52):
You mentioned the gas tank there of Pedro and again
two and a half here, If you think this fight
ultimately could hit the cards, well, you can get almost
two to one just for the I to go to
the distance. Do you worry about Pedro gassing in that
we could look at Turkli maybe getting a finish here.
Speaker 7 (42:05):
Yeah, I would like Turkli to get a finished more
than I would like this going the distance, just because
I mean, Pedro is going to be trying to, you know,
impress the hometown crowd. He'll be probably taking big swings.
He might get he might get punished for it. But
I think that either way somebody is gonna somebody should
get finished here. You know, I don't I don't think
the contrarian over is the worst thing in the world,
but I would. I mean, I think won the move
(42:26):
on Turcli to go dog to fave is the right move.
Uh and too, I think that win by finish at
almost two to one is a good spot.
Speaker 1 (42:32):
Got a couple more minutes here with Britain Hasse before
we round out this edition of First Strike. I do
want to get to a boy. I don't know if
there's a more popular fighter, certainly in these parts of
the world, maybe in the UFC period. As Tito avasays
I was in Chicago saw him do the shoe shoe
We first hand it's a big deal over there. Is
he going to be doing the shoey Here is almost
a two dollars betting underdog against Alexander VOLKOFV. We know
(42:53):
Volkov's got more skill, It's just that Tye's got that
bam bam power and if he can get to you,
he can get you out of there.
Speaker 7 (43:01):
I think that you've seen my notes. I put ty
Vosa has got an NFL style, not for long, you know,
just like he is kill or be killed.
Speaker 1 (43:07):
Right, he almost has still gone out of there, but
he couldn't.
Speaker 7 (43:10):
But he couldn't. Volkov is gonna be somewhere gone that
He's really good on his feet, great Chris boxing. He's
gonna have a five inch or so reach advantage. And
you know the thing is that Volkov lately, he you know,
he's been saying, I don't want to wait anymore, you
know what I mean. He's been starting his fights early,
and he's got two back to back round one finishes
against two you know, powerful guys, and Jorzino rosenstriking Alexander Romanov.
(43:31):
I think that Toyvasa can run at him, but I
think that he's gonna eat a straight left, you know,
straight jab that's gonna knock his head back. And I
think that Volkov is probably gonna win by finish, and honestly,
I'd be surprised if it goes beyond the first round.
Speaker 1 (43:43):
So maybe would you look at a ten to one
sub I.
Speaker 7 (43:46):
Mean, so there's something so if for some reason Tavasa
gets desperate and tries to tries to shoot, because when
you have somebody with this height advantage in the reach advance, we.
Speaker 3 (43:57):
See it all.
Speaker 7 (43:58):
We actually see it quite often with kers. Oh we
don't even know the news of jiu jitsu. I don't
think Tuvasa is gonna shoot it on purpose. It's only
if he gets kind of gets rattled and he's desperate.
I think that there's a chance that could happen. But
I like Ko and first round take Ko much more.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
Thirty seconds any shot for the mercurial Sean strick one
against Israel Ata Sonya.
Speaker 7 (44:18):
I mean you sure there's a shot if he does
something that we've really never seen him do, which is
fight smart for the full fight, you know, against the
guy who's actually more talented than him. You know, Sean
is like a bullet. He beats up guys that are
not in his class, and then when he meets someone
at his level or above, he kind of loses his
cool and you know, gets punished for it.
Speaker 1 (44:35):
Can't stress this enough. The great job that Britain has
does Rob does Marano Behind the glass, everybody here, the
First Right crew, absolutely fantastic. Thank you to Britain, Lupin,
to Carrol, Jordan Sherwood and Dan Rieland. Enjoy two ninety three.
We'll see you next week right here on First rit
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