November 7, 2023 • 44 mins
UFC 295 is going down this Saturday from Madison Square Garden with TWO title fights.
Two champions will be crowned as the Light Heavyweight Title AND the Heavyweight Title will be on the line. Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall will battle for the Interim HW Belt! And then Jiri Prochazka will take on Alex Pereira for the vacant LHW belt!
Dave Ross is joined by Lou Finocchiaro, Jordan Sherwood, Dan Vreeland, and Reed Kuhn! The team deliver all the fight analysis and betting breakdowns you'll need to bet the fights this Saturday.
You can also WATCH the show here: https://youtu.be/Aj7BM1AvwZI
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
He welcome to First Strike here on Visa. I'm your host,
Dave Ross. For the next hour, we're gonna break down
UFC two to ninety five, not one, but two title
of bouts on this one, the return of youre A
Prahashka against Alex Pajara and then we've got Sergei Pavlovitch
against tom asminav for the Interim Heavyweight Championship.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
What a car going to catch up with loof.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Nikarol momentarily Jordan Sherwood, Dan Freeland and Red Koon. But
let's look back to what we saw last week in
Brazil where the Brazilian Jelton Almeta who's moved up into
the top ten in the new we released heavyweight rankings
to number seven today uninspiring victory over Derek Lewis went
all five.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
He could have got that at twelve to one.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
If you thought this fight somehow would reach the judges' scorecards.
I did not believe that was a possibility. But that's
what we saw with Jelton Almeida getting that easy win
over Derek Lewis. Let's bring in the man you know
him as gamblu on X. He's also the host of
the About Business podcast on and Only Hoof and the
Carol Lou very quickly. I cannot believe Almeida could not
(01:17):
finish Derek Lewis.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
How surprised were you by that?
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Well, Almeida was two hundred and thirty five pounds and
Derek Lewis was two hundred and seventy five pounds, so
there was a huge size thing there. He controlled him,
he dominated him. Lewis never had Almeida in trouble. I
know we want to see, you know, blood thirsty finishes
and such, sometimes you just don't get him. And I
(01:43):
think Almeida's size might be a factor as he tries
to ascend in this big heavyweight division.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
It's going to be fascinating to handicap his fights going
forward as he moves up the heavyweight ranks. We're gonna
get and start right there with this heavyweight interim championship
that we have Saturday night in New York City Madison
Square Garden could be the most electric card that we've got.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
And at Sergey Pavlovitch against Tom Aspital.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Of course, this was supposed to be stee B Miochich
against John Jones. That fight has been scrapped until next
year at the earliest. And now Pavlovitch, who was the
standby right, he was the filling guy, so he was
already going to be there regardless training for this against
Tom Aspitall, who's taking this on relatively short notice without
a full camp.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Does that factor into your handicap at all? Here?
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Will it absolutely factors into my handicapping. I don't know
how others want to approach it, but it's just like
the Volkanowski thing. I mean, yeah, his mind is there,
their competitors, they're fighters, They're never that far away from
the game. But Aspinall has to be downgraded to an
(02:49):
extent because he's not had a full camp at least
I have to Pavlovitch has had the full camp. Now,
when we dissect each guy, the fact that they they've
all finished all their opponents and Pavlovich hasn't had to
fight that far. I mean, I'll even go as far
as to say in a recent interview, Aspinau's walking backwards
(03:12):
talking about his knee. Still, let's not forget that in
his biggest test against Curtis Blades, he blew a knee.
Now that's only a year plus ago, but he's in
there again with another big, huge, structured, aggressive Russian bomb.
And so there's a lot of moving parts to this fight.
(03:34):
And I can't quite tell you now what I think
in firm bases, nor do I think I'm going to
be able to on Friday. I think I'm gonna fish
in other waters. There's just a lot of unknown here, Dave.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
It is, And one thing we do know is Pavlovitch
does have a six inch reach advantage that is not
to be discredited as well for two big heavyweights pushing
two sixty here when we get in the octagon very quickly,
we are getting totals populating now, and this one fascinates
me right from the jomp. This total five round potential
you know, obviously for interim bell is.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
At one and a half.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
And look at the plus money you can get if
you think this fight goes seven and a half for
more minutes. And again didn't think it was likely last
week in Brazil. Here we go again with Pavlovich and
Aspiral plus a dollar seventy five. I know these are
first round fighters, Blue, is there any feeling out process
that we might be able to look into for this one?
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Well, I'm just seeing these numbers right now, I've been
looking at bed online where it was one and a
half minus two fifteen. Yeah, okay, so I have a
hard time thinking this fight goes under one and a half.
(04:48):
That said, maybe Aspinall has to play the Volkanowski and
go out there and get it done because he doesn't
have five rounds. Again, this is a that I may
not be able to add much of value to our
listeners about. I think what I'll do is watch learn
I think if both guys had a full camp and
(05:10):
this was under different circumstances, the price would be different
and I'd be on Aspinall.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
I'm right there with you on that this shortened camp
for Aspenaal should play into the handcap as it does yours.
I think it's really a stute too, that you don't
feel like you've got an advantage here in the numbers,
so take more of a weight and see approach. And
I think that's a lesson to be learned for a
lot of gamblers out there for sure.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
In the main event, Lou I.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Can't curb my enthusiasm for this fight here. When I
look at Yuri Prohashka coming back, It's been a minute
since we've seen Uri in there, we don't know what
his shoulder is going to look like. We do have
Pahara now his second fight, now moving up and weight
from one eighty five to.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Two to oh five. He has gone up in value.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
But I feel like there's starting to be some comeback
money now in Parashka. Maybe if the Pehera line is
starting to get a little bit heavy. What do you
make it now with peherat minus dotar thirty, with Uri
plus a dollar ten?
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Yeah, I have Prochaska opening plus one thirty now hovering
short plus with Pereira as the favorite. That's exactly what
I'm seeing on your screen here and again some unknown here.
First of all with Altt with Pereira, he didn't look
great against John and I remember either coming on here
(06:23):
or writing digitally that not only was Pereira's power going
to transfer, it was going to transfer, you know, profusely.
I couldn't have been more wrong. It didn't transfer in
that fight. What happens here, I don't know. Meanwhile, Prochaska
had a shoulder injury where it's like you take a
chicken wing and you just ripped the wing right off.
(06:46):
I mean, this guy had a major shoulder issue. It's
a year ago. So now both guys are back. They're
both back one hundred percent. I have to regard Pereira
maybe more precision, not as much power, even though he's
a powerful guy, maybe the guy that's going to need
to take more time. I view Prochaska as the more
(07:09):
powerful athlete here. He's surely the more legitimate light heavyweight.
That said, he's only got three UFC fights, So another
fight where there's a lot to learn, a lot of
unknown and between that main and Comaine Dave, I may
not spend a lot of my budget. I think I'll
(07:29):
be looking a lot to a lot of spots elsewhere
on the card where I could set my watch on
a handicap as opposed to the unknown.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
And this one also, by the way, potentially five round
with in the main event here one and a half
right now, juice to the over here minus a dollar
forty five. So I'm with you with a lot of
question marks around this Comaine and the main event.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
I do want to get to one of your plays.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
I know you've got a good wan on and that
would be been was Saint Denis against Matt the Steamroller
for Vola as a sizable dog. He for Vola coming
in here plus a dollar ninety. He's surprised before. Will
he surprise Deny here?
Speaker 3 (08:06):
He's gonna sure try. I mean, if we remember those
old back when in the day we would watch these
outdoor movies where the two male rams were on the
side of the mountain and they'd line up and slam
into each other when they ring the bell to this fight,
that's what these two guys are gonna do. Neither guy
knows how to take a step back. For Vola has
(08:27):
knocked out his last three opponents, and he comes in
not only with his backyard. I mean he trains with
Sarah Widman in Long Island, so he's in front of
his peeps with a couple other fighters from his gym
on this card. But he comes in with momentum off
of that dober knockout. Dober took a very disrespectful approach
(08:48):
towards the steamroller and paid for it. I don't think
Saint Denis does. Saint Denis is two inches taller, has
two inch reach advantage. He's the younger man by three years.
He's the more well rounded fighter. I think in many ways,
there's a lot to like about Saint Denis in this fight,
but he better come with some respect because Fravola is
(09:12):
going to be there and he's a willing participant in
this fight.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Another lean you might have early here is Diego Lopez
against Pat Sabatini, and I'm seeing right now Sabatini as
a small favorite of it. Here about Manusa Dowar thirty
dollar twenty now we're seeing on the street against Diego.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Do we have a live dog scenario here in a
very close aligned fight.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
I really think we do. In this case, the ship
in from Brazil younger, He's a younger kid. He's the
larger kid, but he doesn't have the experience. The thing
with Sabatini is usually the wrestling pedigree, the grappling can
be kryptonite to the Brazilians. Usual it's in this case,
I think young Lopez has the ground game to compete
(09:56):
with Sabatini. More importantly, I think he has the ground
game to make Sabatini compete with him on the feet.
And Sabatini is not a fluid striker, nor is he
very deft with his defense. And I think that's where
there's great advantage for the young Brazilian and as an
underdog or even I'm seeing plus one hundred. I think
(10:17):
that number is starting to go away, that dog price
on Lopez, so take it while you can get it.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Got about ninety seconds to go.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
Tell the people about the sneak teap that you're giving
out every week in the Bout Business podcast.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
So many great podcasters or recapping fights. I wanted to
do something different, and what this basically is is an
opening line report we break every Monday, and it really
helps me prepare for this show as well the Bout
Business podcast.
Speaker 4 (10:45):
Down the line, do you.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
Want to give out one of those sneaks right now?
Or do you It's up to you. We can drive
the traffic towards you to get that sneak.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
I don't hold anything back. I have Saint denian A
Parlay already and Lopez was released on the Sneak Teeth.
That's why it's released here. I'm not that guy that
can give twenty seven different pits. I'm not smart enough
to remember them all. So you guys get as good
as the Sneak Teeth gets. And it's Diego Lopez. Last
week it was Angela Hill, So hopefully our look early
(11:17):
continues to be accurate.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
Angela Hill at plus money cash that ticket for sure.
A great performance from her down in Brazil, who appreciate
it as always My friend cannot wait for UFC two
ninety five. Everybody check them out on x at Gamblu
and check out the Bout Business podcast.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
When we come back.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
We're going to the great City of Chicago next to
catch up with one and only Jordan Sherwood.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
Come on back in his first strike. Hey here on Deese.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Before you make your next bet, be sure to visit
vson dot com check the current betting splits data. I
want to know the money and bets are moving for
every game well. The betting splitz page is updated with
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Vson is here to make you a smarter, better year round.
(12:29):
Check out today's betting splits for every game at vson
dot com. And yes, there are betting splits for UFC
each in every week as well, Each and every week
we go to the great city of Chicago to catch
up with our guy.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Jordan Sherwood.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
You can follow him on X as I do at
Wood on ESPN one thousand and This is of course.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
Football season, but I think even in.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Chicago they can respect the fact that this fight card
is in Madison Square Garden in New York City. Chicago
does great jobs to when they host UFC events, But Jordan,
this feels like they call it the Mecca. This feels
like maybe the best fight card of the year.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
No, it is until we get to next month, which
then is the best fight card of the year. I
mean December is loaded from top to bottom. Every single
fight on that fight card is worth tuning into. I
don't think that chic I mean Chicago's a great sports city.
I don't think it's a great fight city. So when
you have a big time fight, you either go to
Vegas or you go to MSG. So it's appropriate we've
(13:28):
got two title fights, not the one we wanted, but
we've got two title fights and a couple other significant
ones at the Mecca of all arenas. You're right in MSG,
Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
Yeah, is what I think the Rolling Stone said, sometimes
you can't get what you want, but you get what
you need. We're going to get to that in the
interim Heavyweight Championship fight at MSG. But I want to
start off this with some picks that you have with
some I feel like some wrestling and certainly some Brazilian
jiu jitsu potentially involved in some of these picks, and
one of them would be Marco Madson. We know of
this pedigree certainly when the fight hits the ground against
(13:59):
Jared Gordon, do you think O Matchen here is the
right side and right now he's an underdog at plus
ANAR sixty four.
Speaker 6 (14:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (14:07):
Look, I mean, obviously he's getting up there in age,
and he got into the UFC and Mixed Martial Arts
after an outstanding, you know, amateur and obviously Greco Roman
wrestling career. But he's still got one skill set that
is very difficult to deal with. A pressure in top
game that are extremely hard, and albeit the Jared Gordon
look is well versed and especially with ability to keep
(14:28):
the fight standing, I just worry that the constant pressure
that Marco Madson brings his cardio advantage that we've seen
really prevail over guys like Klake Guida and Austin Hubbard
and and you know from Hell Tochelle, I think are
going to be a factor. Plus, I'm still concerned about
Jared Gordon and him. You know, the post clashing of
(14:49):
heads that that he had with Bobby Green, that that
worries me to to some extent. So while we have
a matchup where yeah, Gordon's gonna have the advantage on
the feet, He's obviously a more well rounded mixed martial artist,
but in my mind at plus money, with Marco Madson
having a distinct advantage in the grappling game, I'm gonna
(15:10):
side with the underdog here, at least, Curry favor with
the underdog here that he's gonna be able to control
Gordon for two rounds and get his hand raised.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
And again, when you've got a four inch reached disadvantage
like Gordon does, it tells you you got to get close.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
And this is not the right guy that you want
to be close to, correct.
Speaker 5 (15:25):
You know, exactly, not exactly not So Gordon's gonna have
difficulty with that. You know, Gordon looked he has struggled
a little bit the no contest with Bobby Green, but
Outside of that, two of his last three fights have
been losses. Again, he's been solid. He's a solid all
round fighter. I just like the advantage that Marco Madson
has been able to get the fight to the ground
when he wants and again just carry out a decision.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
And there it is. The decision prop by the way,
is not that much heavier.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
It's only plus a dollar eighty five when you're already
getting plus a dollar sixty four. So I think you've
already proven that is clearly his best way to victory wrestling,
Get the fight down to the ground, get that top
control that you alluded to, and then get a favorable
judge's decision. I don't know with these with the former
champion that we're going to have here and Jessica Andrage
against Mackenzie Dern, that it's gonna go to the cards.
(16:12):
We've got two finishers, but they finished different ways here
in this potential three round match up here when you
look at Andrage and she right now is the betting
underdog at plus a dollar sixty four.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
McKenzie now pretty good.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
I'd say, come back second stage, uh, you know, post
having a child, coming back into the fight game. She's
a two dollars betting favorite. Should she be this big
a favorite against the former champ?
Speaker 5 (16:38):
I think that that you know, the odds makers know
what's going to happen in this fight, And yeah, I
think you look at the pedigree Andrage has been in
there with the best women in the world multiple different
weight classes. We know what she brings. She dirties up
fight has tremendous amounts of power. But what is plague
Jessica and Rage over the last couple of fights. It's
when the fight gets to the ground. She has a
(16:59):
distinate disadvantage and McKenzie Dern we know that she has
a distinct advantage when the fight goes there. So I
believe that, and most handicappers believe that this fight at
some point will get to the ground. McKenzie Dert is
not going to mess around with Androga's power and drag
her to the ground and control her and likely look
(17:20):
for a submission. So I don't Yeah, you're right, I
don't like mackenzie dirt as a two dollars favorite. I
think that's a little bit high because of the advantage
and Rodge will have. So where do you have to do?
You have to look for some value, and I think
we know that Mackenzie Dern can get a submission and
can get the victory that way. We've seen Adrage what's
succumbed to submissions and two of her last three fights
or you know, two of her last four losses. So
(17:42):
uh yeah, that's the that's the value play. I'm looking
for McKenzie Dern hunting for a submission and getting one
the showcase her skill setting in Madison Square Garden. And
I think that's a factor too. You got to remember,
like not often they get the fight in front of
MSG in Madison Square Garden. These fighters realize the stage
that they're and they want to.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Perform, you know.
Speaker 1 (18:01):
And I love where your head's out with that fight
because look at the under right right now for two
and a half rounds, potentially three rounds juiced heavily to
the under. So if it's going to be stopped, it's
probably going to be a draj Ko which is four
to one or durn submission plus a dollar seventy five.
So you flip around that, lay in two dollars here
and get plus a dollar seventy five. I love that
(18:21):
look to the Mackenzie durnside. If you're on the Durn
side like Jordan and I are here, I would play
that way versus playing weighing that two dollars betting favorite
here with androge Digo Lopez against Pat Sabatini. Talked a
little bit about this with Luf Nikara. What are your
thoughts here on Lopez really impressive so far in his
young UFC debut.
Speaker 5 (18:40):
Yeah, I would like to let him know, like Lopez,
don't go to your Brazilian jiu jitsu background, don't fight
off of your back, because Pat Sabatini is a good
Brazilian jiu jitu practitioner himself, but also has showcase a
very strong top game utilizing wrestling and grappling. But where
does Lopez have the advantage? In my opinion, it's on
the feet. The guy can, He has a lot of
(19:01):
versatility to his strikes and right now he's at plus money,
and I think it has to do with the fact
that Sabatini maybe he has fought a little bit better,
you know, a competition, but in the UFC obviously a
little bit longer than Lopez. But I think at plus
money right now, if Lopez has a smart game plan,
and keeps this fight standing, doesn't just rest on his
(19:21):
laurels and go to his back. I think he's gonna
get you know, he's gonna hit Sabatini with some power.
He's gonna change the direction of the fight, and I
think at plus money, he's got value.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Here on a Tuesday, I am fascinated by the main event.
And again we thought it was gonna be John Jones
againstive Miocic.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
It is not.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
And I'm not upset about it that we're gonna get
Prahashka here against Pajara as the main event to see
who is the best right now in the world at
two hundred and five pounds for Hoshka was the champ
toward that pectoral ugly, ugly shoulder injury out for a
full year. We know about poets On and the power
that he has certainly in both hands.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
Is this a fight? I mean it's right now.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
The totals one and a half, so right there, we
are expecting this thing to be done sooner rather than later.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
How much does the layoff worry you for Paraska or does.
Speaker 5 (20:09):
It it worries me a ton? It worries me a
ton for Parosca because of you know, jumping right back
in there with a former champion. I'll be it in
a different weight class, but a guy that we know
can carry power from from one to eighty five to
two o five. And what we know about Parahasca, he's
a guy that gets hit and gets hit a lot,
and you know, look, there's only so much toughness that
(20:30):
that one can rely on to win fights. And he
went five round of war with Glover to Shira. We
loved that fight. We know what he did in Rising,
like you know, he was impressive there, but also suffered
a knockout or two, you know, in that promotion, And
I just worry about the leaky defense against a guy that's.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
An Yeah, I hear you, Jordan. I think the feed
cut out there.
Speaker 5 (20:55):
But yes, by the way, under the tululage of Glover
to Shira, that's gonna certainly help in my handicap of
this fight as well.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
Okay, so under the tutelage for Pehera, that's going to
help your handicap of going with Alex in this one.
Speaker 5 (21:09):
Yes, correct, I just think again he was shadowing Glover
and his preparation for the fight against Juri Prohaska, and
I think one of the same. Now you've had what
sixteen weeks if you combine two weight you know, camps
to prepare for this fight. That's why I think Alex
Pereira is the right side of this fight. Even though
I love both fighters. We're gonna get a fantastic fight
for as long as as long as it lasts. I
(21:31):
like Pereira to win the fight got.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
About ninety seconds ago.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
I got to get your thoughts too on the co
made event here for the heavyweights with Sergey Pavlovich against
Tom Aspinall Aspinal rather short notice, not a full camp
for this one. Pavlovitch was training to be the backup
fighter for Jones and Steepe. What do you make of
this clash year of the young guns in the heavyweight division.
Speaker 5 (21:50):
Yeah, I talked about it with you last week. I'm
still concerned about Tom Aspinall and how quickly he returned
to the octagon with the torn acl He looked great
obviously against Ty Burrow. He's a great boxer, good Brazilian
jiu jitsu. We have never seen Pavlovich have to use wrestling,
and he might in this fight. But I think Pavlovich
actually is the right side of this app plus money
or near up pick them. But I think there's value here.
(22:12):
I think he gets the knockout, he gets to win,
and he's your interim heavyweight champion of the world.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
Got me excited. Sound like a ring announcer with that.
I love it.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Jordan show whatever, Give him a follow at Wood on
ESPN one thousand and the hosts of the unnamed MMA
pod Go Bears Jordan will catch up again next week.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
They're down and Bear Down have been down for a while.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
When we come back and to go and ship up
to Boston to catch up with our guy Dan Rielan next.
Get his thoughts on maybe some of the earlier fights
of the evening as well. Come on back, It's first
strike here on Vicent. Become a vsent Pro subscriber today.
(23:12):
Get a daily email recapping all the best bets from our.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Show host and guests.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
You're gonna get unlimited access to our vson dot com
slash picks page. Sort those picks out by sport matchup
event eight am More, check the top vs experts lead
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(23:36):
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com slash subscribe.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Let's ship up to Boston. Catch up with our guy,
Dan Rieland.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
You can follow him on X as I do at Gunbayevreeland, Dan,
this is one of the best fight cards on the docket.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Tell the people where they can access.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
You, because I know you've been doing a eeomen's work
to get ready for UFC two ninety five.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
Yeah, you can check out all my writing at katesidepress
dot com. That's where you can find my MMA writing
and my gambling writing. You can check out at Sports
Gambling podcast dot com. And then of course I do
the MMA Gambling Podcast, which will give you picks for
all these fights, and I do the Top Turtle MMA podcast,
which has interviews with a couple of these fighters and
a little mini breakdown of the event as well.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
I mean, it's if you like that sort of thing.
Let's get to the fight.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
You can't wait to watch versus the fight you can't
wait to wager on.
Speaker 6 (24:29):
So the fight I can't wait to watch is Pat
Sabatini versus Diego Lopez. Obviously we could sit here and
we could talk about the two main events. They're awesome,
they're really awesome fights. But like as far as the
fight a little bit further down in the card, look
that is between a guy who has got ridiculous submission
skills in Diego Lopez, who I doubted multiple times and
he's just proven time and time again that he can
sub anybody up against the guy who's a submission machine
(24:50):
in his own right in Pat Sabatini, and brings like
a totally different style of grappling, like a wrestler mentality
that Daniel Gracie john Mark his style of grappling that
I've really come to love. So it's awesome to see
like both of their grappling skills tested against one another.
And then as far as the one that I can't
wait to bet, I still don't know how Tabitha Ricci
(25:12):
is an underdog in this fight against Lupy Gadinez. I
love Lupy Gadenez. I'm a big fan of her, time
and time again. I bet Lupy Gadinez, and I've thought
it's been a smart bet. But she's up against Tabitha
Riccie here, who I think does a lot of the
same stuff as her, only slightly better. Right, Lupy has
shown in fights that, yes, she is a good wrestler,
except when somebody matches that physicality, when somebody matches that toughness.
(25:35):
We saw it when she took a short notice going
up and weight. We saw it against a little bit
of a stronger opponent at strawweight. And I think she's
getting another strong opponent here at strawway, and one that
has shown excellent wrestling skills, excellent top control, and I
even think sometimes a little bit better at boxing, sometimes
out of ricci So the fact that you can get
her here, you know, up in the the plus one forties,
(25:57):
I'm seeing like that is an incredible value to me.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
So plus an hour forty two, you're gonna go with
Tabithy here as the underdog for your best fight to
wager on with the Lopez side. Do you like him
now at even money? We are seeing that he's starting
to take money, But do you like diego on that spot?
Speaker 6 (26:12):
You know, I have gone back and forth on this
fight so many times. I know I usually have a
pick locked in for pretty much any fight you bring
up every time I come on here. This is one
I'm gonna have to say, Like, I think this winds
up at the over I think we say that these
submission skills just kind of cancel each other out. I
can't imagine pat Zabattini doing anything to finish Lopez outside
of exhausting him and maybe hitting an arm triangle choke.
(26:35):
But even then, I don't know that Lopez is gonna
tie your out. And as far as Lopez goes, you know,
his crafty submission game works really well on a lot
of fighters. I'd be shocked to see it work on
Sabatini outside of you know, sweeping and scrambling and winding
up back on the feet, where I do think he
is a touch better. Don't see either of him knocking
each other out, So I think I just like the
over here.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
Well, and how about this?
Speaker 1 (26:55):
You get great value with your call there plus an
hour fifty five over two and a half rounds, and
for the fight just to hit the cards without picking
a winner. Daan's gonna give you a plus a dollar, Ready, Dan, well,
but DraftKings will that's pretty darn good value right there
for this fight to hit the cards here in New
York City. Let's get to some other fights on the premium
card that I know you've got your eye on. John
Castaneda right now is a small betting favorite against Jung
(27:17):
Ho Kang. Right now, Kang is plus a dollar twenty
in the comeback, Castaneda MINUSEDAR forty two.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
What do you make of that matchup there?
Speaker 6 (27:25):
Again, this is a line I'm absolutely shocked on. When
I saw the fight posted, I assumed Castaneda to be
two to one at least favorited. And the problem here
is is that I think people are thinking Kyung Ho
Kang has the wrestling to stop Castaneda. He's huge, right
Like people have said time and time to get a
big bodied banam way and a lot of times he's
used his own wrestling to win fights. But at the
(27:46):
end of the day, Kyung Ho Kang is only beating
guys with his wrestling who don't really know how to
wrestle all that well, right Like he's beating strikers with
that wrestling and that size, and a lot of it
is just brute strength. And brute size. Castaneda is a
guy who trains wrestling in Minnesota at the same place
brock Lessner used to train his. And he's got a
bantam weights version of that body right Like, he's got
(28:07):
the big shoulders, he's got the double leg takedowns, he's
got the arm triangles. I think we see a guy
with much more technical wrestling here, just absolutely dominating Kyong
Ho Kang in that realm. And to be honest, I
think he's got the boxing that could put him away too.
I don't think he should stay there very often because
I think that's a way more dangerous route for him.
But I think if he goes to that wrestling early,
(28:29):
you're gonna see him win this fight easily.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Minus doar forty two. Love that price point that we're
getting here on a Tuesday. You better get it now
because after Dan's word gets out, it's gonna go up.
Let's get to Steve ver Sig here against Alessandra Costa
Costa right now. The comeback is plus a dollar forty
or seg minus a doar sixty six. Is this number
still playable for you for Steve?
Speaker 6 (28:49):
Yeah, it's still playable for me for Steve.
Speaker 4 (28:51):
It's gone up a little bit here.
Speaker 6 (28:52):
He was originally a little bit closer to a pick him,
which obviously I would have liked. But I like Steve
Versik here for a couple of reasons. I think Costa's
being played up because of his takedown defense. His takedown
defense is phenomenal. We saw it against the mire El Bezi, which,
of course, if you're doing it against simular A Bazie,
you've got some good takedown defense. But I think people
are underestimating that Steven Ersek doesn't just need his submission
(29:13):
game to win. Yes, the bulk of his wins do
come by re naked choke, They come by guillotine, all
that kind of stuff, But as we saw in his
last fight with David Duvorick, he doesn't need that to
beat you. He outboxed David Dvorick easily in his last fight,
And I really think that people are maybe sleeping a
on how just good of a boxer he is. Plus,
we're talking about a massive height advantage in this fight.
(29:34):
We're talking about four inches of height advantage on Alessandra Costa.
It's only listed as two inches of reach, but I
tend to think the functionality of that reach is a
little bit longer because he's got you know, he leans
with his jab more better. I think his arms are
actually longer cost to of course, they measure the chest
and he's got a bigger chest there too, so I
think the functional reach of ersk is even better than
(29:54):
the two inches, and I think you're gonna see that
play with his jab here.
Speaker 1 (29:57):
Do you think this fight hits the cards here or
do you think because you look at the submission price
here for a sec it's plus three seventy five ko
tkrdy q is.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
Six to one.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
So using that height advantage, certainly, maybe even obviously, this
fight hits the ground. That's where the sub could come
into play. It feels like right now I would say
that they're leaning you towards that decision prop at plus
two to ten.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Do you think you can get it done inside the distance?
Speaker 6 (30:19):
I think the decision prop makes sense, as much as
I want to be able to say, like, no, call
him for a submission, call him for a finish here
on the feet, He's not really finishing anybody of Alessandro
Costa's ability level on the feet, So again I'm not
just trusting that he will do it suddenly now, and
with the fact that Costa has such good takedown defense
and seemingly pretty good jiu jitsu once he's there too,
(30:40):
is I don't think Ersk is going to send anything
up there outside of like a club in some so
I think you're really just grasping at straws if you're
looking for a finish here, and I think the smart play.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Is to just assume this goes the distance more Sev
against Sodakov. Nazeem right now is a small favorite at
minus a dollar thirty five. But Dan, I think you
think we might have a long life doogs scenario here.
Speaker 6 (31:01):
I love Slava Claus and I know that he has
a massive flaw in his game, and I do mean
massive flaw. He has a huge issue with wrestling. Seemingly
every time we've seen him fight somebody who can shoot
a decent takedown, he's looked bad doing it. The problem
is is I think we're thinking of that issue. We're
seeing a guy whose last name ends an Ov, and
(31:21):
we're assuming that he's able to take him down. The
Ziem Sodakov is not some amazing wrestler. Nazim Soadakov got
taken down early and often by Terrence McKinney. He's got
no successful takedowns in the UFC so far. He spent
four minutes on his back in that Terrence McKinny fight. Now, granted,
he did come back in that fight because Terence mcginney
gasses in the way that Terence McKinney always gasses. But
(31:44):
we're talking about a guy who doesn't wrestle much, hasn't
shown any interest in wrestling much, and is going to
strike with a dude who has been an absolute sniper
on the feet right like Slava Claw is going all
the way back to his time on Contender Series. The
thing you know about him is he's a dangerous puncher.
So we've got a guy who likes to strike and
a guy who is going to oblige him in that fight.
(32:05):
I'm gonna take Slava clause I think he's got the
harder hands, i think he's got the more dangerous ability
to finish this fight, and I think he's even got
probably the speed advantage here too.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
And plus money right now, so gobble that up.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Why you can got about ninety seconds, got to get
to the co maine of the main event here, Pavlovitch
and gets aspenal for the interim belt here. Not the
fight we thought we're gonna get, but maybe the fight
we deserve. Who is going to be the interim champion
here in the heavyweight division.
Speaker 6 (32:30):
I know you were talking to me before we recorded
last week about I can't believe I'm getting Pavlovich at
this price. I'm actually siding with Tom Aspinall.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Oh the more and more.
Speaker 6 (32:38):
I think about it, I'm just the question mark about Sarahgay.
Pavlovich's wrestling defense to me is too big to really
trust him at any price, and it's basically a pick
him right or damn close to it. So I'm gonna
go with Tom Aspinall on this one, thinking that his
wrestling carries the day. I would have liked to see
Curtis Blades test that wrestling of Pavlovitch and maybe we'd
know more, but instead he played patty cake with him
(33:00):
until he was woozy. So I'm gonna go with Pavlovich
as the first guy to test that, and I think
he gets it done for a first guy since over
him at least, and I think he gets it done
that way. Yeah, in the other fight, yeah, I'll give
you that one quick too. I'm gonna go with Yuri Prohashka.
I think his unconventionality, like the fact that he's just
weird as hell on the feet. I think it's weird
for a guy like Haena, right, Like Hada is not
(33:22):
going to know what to do with that spinning and
all that kind of weirdness. So yeah, give me Yury Proshka,
especially if you can get him at plus money.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
You can't get him at plus money right now plus
dollars ten. I just hope the shoulder is okay because
that has the chance to be one of the wildest
fights we've seen it quite some time for.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
The light heavyweight Championship.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
Damn appreciate she has always my friends. Give him a
follow there at Gunny Breelan on X.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
When we come back. We're going to Washington, DC Riccoup
next year.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
On first Trick, we continue our look to UFC two
(34:15):
ninety five day Ross here at Circus Sports Book in
fabulous Las Vegas, going out to the Nation's Capitol.
Speaker 2 (34:19):
Catch up with our guy. Read Kohon.
Speaker 1 (34:20):
You can follow him on X at Fight Nomics. He
is the author of a book of the same name.
Read when we get to a big pay per view
as Britain has. Our producer and I were discussing in
the break that means it's menu time at the Kun household.
Now what will that menu consist of? Have you when
do you start putting it together? Because this is one
(34:41):
of the best fight cards of the year.
Speaker 4 (34:44):
So this is the last second last pay per view
of the year.
Speaker 7 (34:47):
The final pay per view card is usually a dinner party,
and I do like battles by round. I have like
championship rounds and the prelambs. We do like a white
wine battle taste off between California in France. Then we
get into the red wines, and then there's a beer
pong tournament that goes on during the pay per view
card with a Golden Budd award for whoever makes my shots.
(35:08):
So that's at the end of the year. That's not
this Saturday. This Saturday, I think is just for me.
My wife's on call that night, so I think I
might just be doing stak dinner for one or room
service for her.
Speaker 4 (35:18):
We'll see.
Speaker 7 (35:18):
But I do like to stay in when the weather
gets a little cooler, do some good home cooking, enjoy
the fight card.
Speaker 4 (35:25):
I'm excited for Saturday.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
That sounds like the coolest event of the year Britain has.
I think we have to petition to take the show
on the road for one of those that, or at
least we got to get a camera because that sounds
amazing to me. Let's get to this fight guard and
see with the numbers and where they're leaning you here
on a Tuesday, as we look ahead to one of
the more exciting fight cards that we've got on the docket,
one of them is fascinating to me. It's Jared Gordon
against Marco Madsen. We know what Madsen wants to do, obviously,
(35:50):
he wants to use that wrestling pedigree. Gordon wants to
keep the fight standing coming off the concussion, and we
didn't know about it and kind of kept it under wraps.
What are the numbers showing you here for the kind
of wrestler versus striker matchup?
Speaker 4 (36:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (36:04):
Mark Madison is an interesting guy because he came in
with such good wrestling credentials and he did have success
early on using that wrestling. But if you look at
the numbers anyway, they don't really show you the numbers
of a really great wrestler dominant wise, his ground control
is somewhere in the fifties, so you would expect an
elite grappler to be up in the nineties. You know,
(36:25):
someone who is generally the one in control on the mat.
That's a very important measurement that I look at. Gordon
is actually higher by that metric. He has been technically speaking,
a more effective wrestler than Madson on the ground, and
so that's a big red flag if you're thinking, hey,
elite credentials wrestling, automatic win or automatic value. That is
(36:45):
something I have looked for in the past. But in
this matchup, I think Gordon is just more well rounded.
First of all, he's going to be the more proven
striker on the feet, and I think he is. His
wrestling is good enough to hang with Madson, at least
in an MMA type of environment where he's mixing it up,
and so in a three round fight, I'm hoping that
Gordon is the one who is able to change levels
(37:06):
a little bit more effectively. Age is also a concern
for Madson as he's approaching forty if you can still
do what he's done in the past, So I do
think Gordon is showing up well on paper, he shows
up well in the models, and yeah, I gotta lay
a little juice for him. But this is overall a
fairly well matchup matched card in terms of betting lines.
So I think I'm going Gordon here, and I think
(37:27):
it's a bargain.
Speaker 1 (37:28):
Yeah, you know, fascinating when you look up and down
the card, you don't see these huge favorites that we
see from time to time, six hour betting favorites of
the light that is not existing on this fight card.
Very quickly, when you mentioned that we know what Madson
wants to do with the wrestling, you mentioned Gordon's pretty
good there, maybe even better than number showing. Does that
wing you towards an over here? Would you look at
Gordon via decision? Do you think there is finishing potential?
Speaker 7 (37:51):
Either guy has actually landed a single knockdown, which is
a little bit surprising because we do have several hours
of fight time combined, and we also have zero submission
attempts permitted on the ground anyway, so there's not a
lot of finishing potential here. I think this turns into
more of a positional stalemate. I think Gordon can be
a little bit more effective with the strikes. But then
(38:12):
I don't think any either one of these guys is
really going to roll over the other one on the map.
Speaker 4 (38:16):
I think it's just going to be more of a
position mismatch.
Speaker 7 (38:21):
I think that's what Gordon is hoping for is just
be the one who lands on top, stifle the offense,
tire him out. He's thirty nine, and hope you can
get you the round victory. So I'm definitely going over
on this one and two if you.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Like Gordon by decision, by the way, plus money there
at plus a dollar twenty five excellent information. As always,
I'm fascinated by Mackenzie durn two point zero if you will.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
She seems much more aggressive when she's out there.
Speaker 1 (38:45):
She looks like a different woman now at one hundred
and fifteen pounds against the former champ here and just
gone drage and you know, father Time, as they say,
is undefeated.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
What are the models showing you here?
Speaker 1 (38:56):
Is that a lean towards Dern with what her recent
Mackenzie Durna looks like in her form versus the recent
form of Jessica and Rage, which does not look as
good as she did when she was the title holder.
Speaker 7 (39:08):
Yeah, it's interesting if you line up career metrics, they're
actually a little bit misleading. They might tell you that
Andrage has the better ground game, which I don't really believe.
And they might also tell you that Durn's striking is
maybe better than it really is. So if I take
a more recent view of the data, I think Androge
has struggled against good grapplers lately, especially bigger, stronger people,
(39:32):
and so she's been trying to flirt with different weight classes.
It didn't quite work out at flyweight. She's back at straweight,
which I agree that's where she should be. She has
been successful there obviously, But Durn does seem to be
the new breed and her grappling credentials are excellent. And
so if you had to design someone who could deal
with Androge, hopefully it's a big, strong girl like Durn
(39:53):
who has clear grappling advantages. And Androge is not like
she's any slouch on the ground, but she has struggled there,
she has been finished there, and so I think Durn
is in the pole position to.
Speaker 6 (40:03):
Do just that.
Speaker 7 (40:04):
I just don't want Durn to fall in love with
her striking, to get over confident every now and then
she starts to unleash the hands and she gets into
deep waters. I think that could get her into trouble
against someone as powerful as Andrage. So hopefully Dern just
uses the hands to set up the takedowns, maybe using
the fence as well. But she needs to get this
to the ground, and if she does that, I think
(40:25):
she's clearly in the position control.
Speaker 1 (40:27):
Let's stay in the same division here with lup Gadina's
against Tabitha Ricci, and Ricci right now is the underdog
against Loopy in this one.
Speaker 2 (40:36):
What are the numbers showing you here? As we stay
in the Strawway division.
Speaker 4 (40:40):
Yeah, I think Lupy is going to have the advantage
on the feet.
Speaker 7 (40:43):
She's very accurate as a striker, unusually accurate for that division,
and she has more fight time to rely on in
terms of this data, so I actually believe it she's
a very good at range striker.
Speaker 4 (40:56):
Both women have liked to use their grappling.
Speaker 7 (40:59):
They actually tempt more than the average takedowns, and they
have been very affected on the ground. I think that's
kind of a stalemate here. Maybe Ricci has the advantage
on the mat, but only a little bit.
Speaker 4 (41:09):
I think I think they kind of cancel each other out.
Speaker 7 (41:12):
And if they do that and they have to stand
in trade, that's where I like goodin as it's just
at the current price point, I don't think there's a
ton of value. I think this is more close on paper,
and so yeah, maybe I lean the over, but it's
good and as you know, may be in a squeaker.
Speaker 2 (41:27):
What about the steamroller?
Speaker 1 (41:29):
Matt Ravola very popular fighter fighting in his backyard against
a guy, and Ben was Saint Denis who's been really
really impressive last couple times out. So you can understand
why Ben Wha is a solid favorite here at minus
two thirty.
Speaker 2 (41:41):
Is there a live dog scenario with the wild man
that is the steamroller?
Speaker 4 (41:46):
Yeah, live by the sword, died by the sword. I
mean Fravola.
Speaker 7 (41:49):
He has a very high knockdown rate, but equally he
has eaten some in return, whereas Saint Denise has been
very good offensively and clean on his defense. He hasn't
take damage, he hasn't been knocked down. Arguably, his grappling
metrics are much more superior than for Vola, at least
effectively what he's done in the cage. So I do
see a lot of advantages here for the Frenchman, I'm
(42:12):
probably gonna have to lay the juice though he's roughly
two to one, I think over for Vola. For Vola
does have that knockout capability, He's got the puncher's chance.
I just hope that this gets out of the first
round and then Benoir runs.
Speaker 4 (42:27):
Away with it.
Speaker 7 (42:27):
I think he is superior on both levels, at least
technically speaking.
Speaker 1 (42:31):
They're going to pull my USA card if I back
a Frenchman over Team USA. Here at matt Ravola, Let's
get to the Covide in the main event here. I'm
fascinated by both of these fights. I want to see
if you have any early leans. I'll go to the
main event here to begin the conversation with Alex Pajara
against Yuri Prahashka.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Big fan of both these guys. I don't know that
the numbers.
Speaker 1 (42:51):
I wonder what they show you here for Pajara in
this new weight class year, his second time out against
the former champion, coming off that year layoff and that
awful shoulder injury.
Speaker 2 (43:00):
What are the numbers showing you here on a Tuesday.
Speaker 7 (43:03):
Yeah, there is this complication of Porea only moving up
to light heavyweight just recently he did perform well better
than expected. I think he is more likely to mix
up his strikes, at least utilized leg kicks and body
kicks again based on his history to date.
Speaker 4 (43:19):
I don't know if he changes that game plan.
Speaker 7 (43:20):
Here, but neither man is going to take a lot
of takedown attempts, you know. So I think we expect
to get what we want, which is a stand up
striking duel, and that's what makes this interesting. I think
Porea is the more proven kickboxer outrange Jerry. Obviously he's
a wild card. I mean, who knows what he's going
to pull out. But Jerry, the problem is his defense
(43:42):
is that he is eating punches at a very high rate.
That is a dangerous thing to do, especially in this
division against a great striker like Pahea. So that leaves
me with a slight slight lean on Pahea, but not
enough where I feel like I want to play this one.
I think there's too much uncertainty. I think this really
is one of those coin flip type fikes. Someone might
land something if not, I think Baja gets a decision,
(44:05):
but I'm a little worried about who might get a
finish first.
Speaker 2 (44:08):
Only have about twenty seconds.
Speaker 1 (44:09):
Do you have any quick thoughts here on aspinall against
Sergey Pavovich.
Speaker 4 (44:14):
Only that I hope to get more data from these
two guys.
Speaker 7 (44:16):
I mean, combined, they only have thirty three minutes of
octagon time and they're fighting for a title, which is ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (44:22):
So I'm looking for Aspinal. I think he is the
better and more well rounded fighter.
Speaker 7 (44:26):
He has a slight edge on paper metrics wise, I
think I will be playing him, and at least I
don't have to lay a lot of juice on it. Admittedly,
this line should stay tight, and I hope it does.
Speaker 2 (44:36):
Grid can't wait to see the menu.
Speaker 1 (44:38):
Give everybody give him a follow on AX thanks to
Rob Arano with Britten has enjoy UFC two ninety five.
Speaker 2 (44:44):
I'll see you next week right here on First Strike
He welcome to First Strike here on Visa. I'm your host,
Dave Ross. For the next hour, we're gonna break down
UFC two to ninety five, not one, but two title
of bouts on this one, the return of youre A
Prahashka against Alex Pajara and then we've got Sergei Pavlovitch
against tom asminav for the Interim Heavyweight Championship.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
What a car going to catch up with loof.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Nikarol momentarily Jordan Sherwood, Dan Freeland and Red Koon. But
let's look back to what we saw last week in
Brazil where the Brazilian Jelton Almeta who's moved up into
the top ten in the new we released heavyweight rankings
to number seven today uninspiring victory over Derek Lewis went
all five.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
He could have got that at twelve to one.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
If you thought this fight somehow would reach the judges' scorecards.
I did not believe that was a possibility. But that's
what we saw with Jelton Almeida getting that easy win
over Derek Lewis. Let's bring in the man you know
him as gamblu on X. He's also the host of
the About Business podcast on and Only Hoof and the
Carol Lou very quickly. I cannot believe Almeida could not
(01:17):
finish Derek Lewis.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
How surprised were you by that?
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Well, Almeida was two hundred and thirty five pounds and
Derek Lewis was two hundred and seventy five pounds, so
there was a huge size thing there. He controlled him,
he dominated him. Lewis never had Almeida in trouble. I
know we want to see, you know, blood thirsty finishes
and such, sometimes you just don't get him. And I
(01:43):
think Almeida's size might be a factor as he tries
to ascend in this big heavyweight division.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
It's going to be fascinating to handicap his fights going
forward as he moves up the heavyweight ranks. We're gonna
get and start right there with this heavyweight interim championship
that we have Saturday night in New York City Madison
Square Garden could be the most electric card that we've got.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
And at Sergey Pavlovitch against Tom Aspital.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Of course, this was supposed to be stee B Miochich
against John Jones. That fight has been scrapped until next
year at the earliest. And now Pavlovitch, who was the
standby right, he was the filling guy, so he was
already going to be there regardless training for this against
Tom Aspitall, who's taking this on relatively short notice without
a full camp.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Does that factor into your handicap at all? Here?
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Will it absolutely factors into my handicapping. I don't know
how others want to approach it, but it's just like
the Volkanowski thing. I mean, yeah, his mind is there,
their competitors, they're fighters, They're never that far away from
the game. But Aspinall has to be downgraded to an
(02:49):
extent because he's not had a full camp at least
I have to Pavlovitch has had the full camp. Now,
when we dissect each guy, the fact that they they've
all finished all their opponents and Pavlovich hasn't had to
fight that far. I mean, I'll even go as far
as to say in a recent interview, Aspinau's walking backwards
(03:12):
talking about his knee. Still, let's not forget that in
his biggest test against Curtis Blades, he blew a knee.
Now that's only a year plus ago, but he's in
there again with another big, huge, structured, aggressive Russian bomb.
And so there's a lot of moving parts to this fight.
(03:34):
And I can't quite tell you now what I think
in firm bases, nor do I think I'm going to
be able to on Friday. I think I'm gonna fish
in other waters. There's just a lot of unknown here, Dave.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
It is, And one thing we do know is Pavlovitch
does have a six inch reach advantage that is not
to be discredited as well for two big heavyweights pushing
two sixty here when we get in the octagon very quickly,
we are getting totals populating now, and this one fascinates
me right from the jomp. This total five round potential
you know, obviously for interim bell is.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
At one and a half.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
And look at the plus money you can get if
you think this fight goes seven and a half for
more minutes. And again didn't think it was likely last
week in Brazil. Here we go again with Pavlovich and
Aspiral plus a dollar seventy five. I know these are
first round fighters, Blue, is there any feeling out process
that we might be able to look into for this one?
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Well, I'm just seeing these numbers right now, I've been
looking at bed online where it was one and a
half minus two fifteen. Yeah, okay, so I have a
hard time thinking this fight goes under one and a half.
(04:48):
That said, maybe Aspinall has to play the Volkanowski and
go out there and get it done because he doesn't
have five rounds. Again, this is a that I may
not be able to add much of value to our
listeners about. I think what I'll do is watch learn
I think if both guys had a full camp and
(05:10):
this was under different circumstances, the price would be different
and I'd be on Aspinall.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
I'm right there with you on that this shortened camp
for Aspenaal should play into the handcap as it does yours.
I think it's really a stute too, that you don't
feel like you've got an advantage here in the numbers,
so take more of a weight and see approach. And
I think that's a lesson to be learned for a
lot of gamblers out there for sure.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
In the main event, Lou I.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Can't curb my enthusiasm for this fight here. When I
look at Yuri Prohashka coming back, It's been a minute
since we've seen Uri in there, we don't know what
his shoulder is going to look like. We do have
Pahara now his second fight, now moving up and weight
from one eighty five to.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Two to oh five. He has gone up in value.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
But I feel like there's starting to be some comeback
money now in Parashka. Maybe if the Pehera line is
starting to get a little bit heavy. What do you
make it now with peherat minus dotar thirty, with Uri
plus a dollar ten?
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Yeah, I have Prochaska opening plus one thirty now hovering
short plus with Pereira as the favorite. That's exactly what
I'm seeing on your screen here and again some unknown here.
First of all with Altt with Pereira, he didn't look
great against John and I remember either coming on here
(06:23):
or writing digitally that not only was Pereira's power going
to transfer, it was going to transfer, you know, profusely.
I couldn't have been more wrong. It didn't transfer in
that fight. What happens here, I don't know. Meanwhile, Prochaska
had a shoulder injury where it's like you take a
chicken wing and you just ripped the wing right off.
(06:46):
I mean, this guy had a major shoulder issue. It's
a year ago. So now both guys are back. They're
both back one hundred percent. I have to regard Pereira
maybe more precision, not as much power, even though he's
a powerful guy, maybe the guy that's going to need
to take more time. I view Prochaska as the more
(07:09):
powerful athlete here. He's surely the more legitimate light heavyweight.
That said, he's only got three UFC fights, So another
fight where there's a lot to learn, a lot of
unknown and between that main and Comaine Dave, I may
not spend a lot of my budget. I think I'll
(07:29):
be looking a lot to a lot of spots elsewhere
on the card where I could set my watch on
a handicap as opposed to the unknown.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
And this one also, by the way, potentially five round
with in the main event here one and a half
right now, juice to the over here minus a dollar
forty five. So I'm with you with a lot of
question marks around this Comaine and the main event.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
I do want to get to one of your plays.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
I know you've got a good wan on and that
would be been was Saint Denis against Matt the Steamroller
for Vola as a sizable dog. He for Vola coming
in here plus a dollar ninety. He's surprised before. Will
he surprise Deny here?
Speaker 3 (08:06):
He's gonna sure try. I mean, if we remember those
old back when in the day we would watch these
outdoor movies where the two male rams were on the
side of the mountain and they'd line up and slam
into each other when they ring the bell to this fight,
that's what these two guys are gonna do. Neither guy
knows how to take a step back. For Vola has
(08:27):
knocked out his last three opponents, and he comes in
not only with his backyard. I mean he trains with
Sarah Widman in Long Island, so he's in front of
his peeps with a couple other fighters from his gym
on this card. But he comes in with momentum off
of that dober knockout. Dober took a very disrespectful approach
(08:48):
towards the steamroller and paid for it. I don't think
Saint Denis does. Saint Denis is two inches taller, has
two inch reach advantage. He's the younger man by three years.
He's the more well rounded fighter. I think in many ways,
there's a lot to like about Saint Denis in this fight,
but he better come with some respect because Fravola is
(09:12):
going to be there and he's a willing participant in
this fight.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Another lean you might have early here is Diego Lopez
against Pat Sabatini, and I'm seeing right now Sabatini as
a small favorite of it. Here about Manusa Dowar thirty
dollar twenty now we're seeing on the street against Diego.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Do we have a live dog scenario here in a
very close aligned fight.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
I really think we do. In this case, the ship
in from Brazil younger, He's a younger kid. He's the
larger kid, but he doesn't have the experience. The thing
with Sabatini is usually the wrestling pedigree, the grappling can
be kryptonite to the Brazilians. Usual it's in this case,
I think young Lopez has the ground game to compete
(09:56):
with Sabatini. More importantly, I think he has the ground
game to make Sabatini compete with him on the feet.
And Sabatini is not a fluid striker, nor is he
very deft with his defense. And I think that's where
there's great advantage for the young Brazilian and as an
underdog or even I'm seeing plus one hundred. I think
(10:17):
that number is starting to go away, that dog price
on Lopez, so take it while you can get it.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Got about ninety seconds to go.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
Tell the people about the sneak teap that you're giving
out every week in the Bout Business podcast.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
So many great podcasters or recapping fights. I wanted to
do something different, and what this basically is is an
opening line report we break every Monday, and it really
helps me prepare for this show as well the Bout
Business podcast.
Speaker 4 (10:45):
Down the line, do you.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
Want to give out one of those sneaks right now?
Or do you It's up to you. We can drive
the traffic towards you to get that sneak.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
I don't hold anything back. I have Saint denian A
Parlay already and Lopez was released on the Sneak Teeth.
That's why it's released here. I'm not that guy that
can give twenty seven different pits. I'm not smart enough
to remember them all. So you guys get as good
as the Sneak Teeth gets. And it's Diego Lopez. Last
week it was Angela Hill, So hopefully our look early
(11:17):
continues to be accurate.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
Angela Hill at plus money cash that ticket for sure.
A great performance from her down in Brazil, who appreciate
it as always My friend cannot wait for UFC two
ninety five. Everybody check them out on x at Gamblu
and check out the Bout Business podcast.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
When we come back.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
We're going to the great City of Chicago next to
catch up with one and only Jordan Sherwood.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
Come on back in his first strike. Hey here on Deese.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Before you make your next bet, be sure to visit
vson dot com check the current betting splits data. I
want to know the money and bets are moving for
every game well. The betting splitz page is updated with
DraftKings ods every five minutes. You can see the changes
in all the action. Find out where public is betting
based on the number of tickets. Where the money doesn't
match the public opinion, You can check out not just
today's action, but future events as well. Betting splits another way.
Vson is here to make you a smarter, better year round.
(12:29):
Check out today's betting splits for every game at vson
dot com. And yes, there are betting splits for UFC
each in every week as well, Each and every week
we go to the great city of Chicago to catch
up with our guy.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Jordan Sherwood.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
You can follow him on X as I do at
Wood on ESPN one thousand and This is of course.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
Football season, but I think even in.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Chicago they can respect the fact that this fight card
is in Madison Square Garden in New York City. Chicago
does great jobs to when they host UFC events, But Jordan,
this feels like they call it the Mecca. This feels
like maybe the best fight card of the year.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
No, it is until we get to next month, which
then is the best fight card of the year. I
mean December is loaded from top to bottom. Every single
fight on that fight card is worth tuning into. I
don't think that chic I mean Chicago's a great sports city.
I don't think it's a great fight city. So when
you have a big time fight, you either go to
Vegas or you go to MSG. So it's appropriate we've
(13:28):
got two title fights, not the one we wanted, but
we've got two title fights and a couple other significant
ones at the Mecca of all arenas. You're right in MSG,
Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
Yeah, is what I think the Rolling Stone said, sometimes
you can't get what you want, but you get what
you need. We're going to get to that in the
interim Heavyweight Championship fight at MSG. But I want to
start off this with some picks that you have with
some I feel like some wrestling and certainly some Brazilian
jiu jitsu potentially involved in some of these picks, and
one of them would be Marco Madson. We know of
this pedigree certainly when the fight hits the ground against
(13:59):
Jared Gordon, do you think O Matchen here is the
right side and right now he's an underdog at plus
ANAR sixty four.
Speaker 6 (14:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (14:07):
Look, I mean, obviously he's getting up there in age,
and he got into the UFC and Mixed Martial Arts
after an outstanding, you know, amateur and obviously Greco Roman
wrestling career. But he's still got one skill set that
is very difficult to deal with. A pressure in top
game that are extremely hard, and albeit the Jared Gordon
look is well versed and especially with ability to keep
(14:28):
the fight standing, I just worry that the constant pressure
that Marco Madson brings his cardio advantage that we've seen
really prevail over guys like Klake Guida and Austin Hubbard
and and you know from Hell Tochelle, I think are
going to be a factor. Plus, I'm still concerned about
Jared Gordon and him. You know, the post clashing of
(14:49):
heads that that he had with Bobby Green, that that
worries me to to some extent. So while we have
a matchup where yeah, Gordon's gonna have the advantage on
the feet, He's obviously a more well rounded mixed martial artist,
but in my mind at plus money, with Marco Madson
having a distinct advantage in the grappling game, I'm gonna
(15:10):
side with the underdog here, at least, Curry favor with
the underdog here that he's gonna be able to control
Gordon for two rounds and get his hand raised.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
And again, when you've got a four inch reached disadvantage
like Gordon does, it tells you you got to get close.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
And this is not the right guy that you want
to be close to, correct.
Speaker 5 (15:25):
You know, exactly, not exactly not So Gordon's gonna have
difficulty with that. You know, Gordon looked he has struggled
a little bit the no contest with Bobby Green, but
Outside of that, two of his last three fights have
been losses. Again, he's been solid. He's a solid all
round fighter. I just like the advantage that Marco Madson
has been able to get the fight to the ground
when he wants and again just carry out a decision.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
And there it is. The decision prop by the way,
is not that much heavier.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
It's only plus a dollar eighty five when you're already
getting plus a dollar sixty four. So I think you've
already proven that is clearly his best way to victory wrestling,
Get the fight down to the ground, get that top
control that you alluded to, and then get a favorable
judge's decision. I don't know with these with the former
champion that we're going to have here and Jessica Andrage
against Mackenzie Dern, that it's gonna go to the cards.
(16:12):
We've got two finishers, but they finished different ways here
in this potential three round match up here when you
look at Andrage and she right now is the betting
underdog at plus a dollar sixty four.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
McKenzie now pretty good.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
I'd say, come back second stage, uh, you know, post
having a child, coming back into the fight game. She's
a two dollars betting favorite. Should she be this big
a favorite against the former champ?
Speaker 5 (16:38):
I think that that you know, the odds makers know
what's going to happen in this fight, And yeah, I
think you look at the pedigree Andrage has been in
there with the best women in the world multiple different
weight classes. We know what she brings. She dirties up
fight has tremendous amounts of power. But what is plague
Jessica and Rage over the last couple of fights. It's
when the fight gets to the ground. She has a
(16:59):
distinate disadvantage and McKenzie Dern we know that she has
a distinct advantage when the fight goes there. So I
believe that, and most handicappers believe that this fight at
some point will get to the ground. McKenzie Dert is
not going to mess around with Androga's power and drag
her to the ground and control her and likely look
(17:20):
for a submission. So I don't Yeah, you're right, I
don't like mackenzie dirt as a two dollars favorite. I
think that's a little bit high because of the advantage
and Rodge will have. So where do you have to do?
You have to look for some value, and I think
we know that Mackenzie Dern can get a submission and
can get the victory that way. We've seen Adrage what's
succumbed to submissions and two of her last three fights
or you know, two of her last four losses. So
(17:42):
uh yeah, that's the that's the value play. I'm looking
for McKenzie Dern hunting for a submission and getting one
the showcase her skill setting in Madison Square Garden. And
I think that's a factor too. You got to remember,
like not often they get the fight in front of
MSG in Madison Square Garden. These fighters realize the stage
that they're and they want to.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Perform, you know.
Speaker 1 (18:01):
And I love where your head's out with that fight
because look at the under right right now for two
and a half rounds, potentially three rounds juiced heavily to
the under. So if it's going to be stopped, it's
probably going to be a draj Ko which is four
to one or durn submission plus a dollar seventy five.
So you flip around that, lay in two dollars here
and get plus a dollar seventy five. I love that
(18:21):
look to the Mackenzie durnside. If you're on the Durn
side like Jordan and I are here, I would play
that way versus playing weighing that two dollars betting favorite
here with androge Digo Lopez against Pat Sabatini. Talked a
little bit about this with Luf Nikara. What are your
thoughts here on Lopez really impressive so far in his
young UFC debut.
Speaker 5 (18:40):
Yeah, I would like to let him know, like Lopez,
don't go to your Brazilian jiu jitsu background, don't fight
off of your back, because Pat Sabatini is a good
Brazilian jiu jitu practitioner himself, but also has showcase a
very strong top game utilizing wrestling and grappling. But where
does Lopez have the advantage? In my opinion, it's on
the feet. The guy can, He has a lot of
(19:01):
versatility to his strikes and right now he's at plus money,
and I think it has to do with the fact
that Sabatini maybe he has fought a little bit better,
you know, a competition, but in the UFC obviously a
little bit longer than Lopez. But I think at plus
money right now, if Lopez has a smart game plan,
and keeps this fight standing, doesn't just rest on his
(19:21):
laurels and go to his back. I think he's gonna
get you know, he's gonna hit Sabatini with some power.
He's gonna change the direction of the fight, and I
think at plus money, he's got value.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Here on a Tuesday, I am fascinated by the main event.
And again we thought it was gonna be John Jones
againstive Miocic.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
It is not.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
And I'm not upset about it that we're gonna get
Prahashka here against Pajara as the main event to see
who is the best right now in the world at
two hundred and five pounds for Hoshka was the champ
toward that pectoral ugly, ugly shoulder injury out for a
full year. We know about poets On and the power
that he has certainly in both hands.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
Is this a fight? I mean it's right now.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
The totals one and a half, so right there, we
are expecting this thing to be done sooner rather than later.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
How much does the layoff worry you for Paraska or does.
Speaker 5 (20:09):
It it worries me a ton? It worries me a
ton for Parosca because of you know, jumping right back
in there with a former champion. I'll be it in
a different weight class, but a guy that we know
can carry power from from one to eighty five to
two o five. And what we know about Parahasca, he's
a guy that gets hit and gets hit a lot,
and you know, look, there's only so much toughness that
(20:30):
that one can rely on to win fights. And he
went five round of war with Glover to Shira. We
loved that fight. We know what he did in Rising,
like you know, he was impressive there, but also suffered
a knockout or two, you know, in that promotion, And
I just worry about the leaky defense against a guy that's.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
An Yeah, I hear you, Jordan. I think the feed
cut out there.
Speaker 5 (20:55):
But yes, by the way, under the tululage of Glover
to Shira, that's gonna certainly help in my handicap of
this fight as well.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
Okay, so under the tutelage for Pehera, that's going to
help your handicap of going with Alex in this one.
Speaker 5 (21:09):
Yes, correct, I just think again he was shadowing Glover
and his preparation for the fight against Juri Prohaska, and
I think one of the same. Now you've had what
sixteen weeks if you combine two weight you know, camps
to prepare for this fight. That's why I think Alex
Pereira is the right side of this fight. Even though
I love both fighters. We're gonna get a fantastic fight
for as long as as long as it lasts. I
(21:31):
like Pereira to win the fight got.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
About ninety seconds ago.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
I got to get your thoughts too on the co
made event here for the heavyweights with Sergey Pavlovich against
Tom Aspinall Aspinal rather short notice, not a full camp
for this one. Pavlovitch was training to be the backup
fighter for Jones and Steepe. What do you make of
this clash year of the young guns in the heavyweight division.
Speaker 5 (21:50):
Yeah, I talked about it with you last week. I'm
still concerned about Tom Aspinall and how quickly he returned
to the octagon with the torn acl He looked great
obviously against Ty Burrow. He's a great boxer, good Brazilian
jiu jitsu. We have never seen Pavlovich have to use wrestling,
and he might in this fight. But I think Pavlovich
actually is the right side of this app plus money
or near up pick them. But I think there's value here.
(22:12):
I think he gets the knockout, he gets to win,
and he's your interim heavyweight champion of the world.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
Got me excited. Sound like a ring announcer with that.
I love it.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Jordan show whatever, Give him a follow at Wood on
ESPN one thousand and the hosts of the unnamed MMA
pod Go Bears Jordan will catch up again next week.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
They're down and Bear Down have been down for a while.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
When we come back and to go and ship up
to Boston to catch up with our guy Dan Rielan next.
Get his thoughts on maybe some of the earlier fights
of the evening as well. Come on back, It's first
strike here on Vicent. Become a vsent Pro subscriber today.
(23:12):
Get a daily email recapping all the best bets from our.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Show host and guests.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
You're gonna get unlimited access to our vson dot com
slash picks page. Sort those picks out by sport matchup
event eight am More, check the top vs experts lead
aboard to view betting records profit Roli and see which
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(23:36):
for only one hundred and twenty dollars at Vison dot
com slash subscribe.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Let's ship up to Boston. Catch up with our guy,
Dan Rieland.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
You can follow him on X as I do at Gunbayevreeland, Dan,
this is one of the best fight cards on the docket.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Tell the people where they can access.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
You, because I know you've been doing a eeomen's work
to get ready for UFC two ninety five.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
Yeah, you can check out all my writing at katesidepress
dot com. That's where you can find my MMA writing
and my gambling writing. You can check out at Sports
Gambling podcast dot com. And then of course I do
the MMA Gambling Podcast, which will give you picks for
all these fights, and I do the Top Turtle MMA podcast,
which has interviews with a couple of these fighters and
a little mini breakdown of the event as well.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
I mean, it's if you like that sort of thing.
Let's get to the fight.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
You can't wait to watch versus the fight you can't
wait to wager on.
Speaker 6 (24:29):
So the fight I can't wait to watch is Pat
Sabatini versus Diego Lopez. Obviously we could sit here and
we could talk about the two main events. They're awesome,
they're really awesome fights. But like as far as the
fight a little bit further down in the card, look
that is between a guy who has got ridiculous submission
skills in Diego Lopez, who I doubted multiple times and
he's just proven time and time again that he can
sub anybody up against the guy who's a submission machine
(24:50):
in his own right in Pat Sabatini, and brings like
a totally different style of grappling, like a wrestler mentality
that Daniel Gracie john Mark his style of grappling that
I've really come to love. So it's awesome to see
like both of their grappling skills tested against one another.
And then as far as the one that I can't
wait to bet, I still don't know how Tabitha Ricci
(25:12):
is an underdog in this fight against Lupy Gadinez. I
love Lupy Gadenez. I'm a big fan of her, time
and time again. I bet Lupy Gadinez, and I've thought
it's been a smart bet. But she's up against Tabitha
Riccie here, who I think does a lot of the
same stuff as her, only slightly better. Right, Lupy has
shown in fights that, yes, she is a good wrestler,
except when somebody matches that physicality, when somebody matches that toughness.
(25:35):
We saw it when she took a short notice going
up and weight. We saw it against a little bit
of a stronger opponent at strawweight. And I think she's
getting another strong opponent here at strawway, and one that
has shown excellent wrestling skills, excellent top control, and I
even think sometimes a little bit better at boxing, sometimes
out of ricci So the fact that you can get
her here, you know, up in the the plus one forties,
(25:57):
I'm seeing like that is an incredible value to me.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
So plus an hour forty two, you're gonna go with
Tabithy here as the underdog for your best fight to
wager on with the Lopez side. Do you like him
now at even money? We are seeing that he's starting
to take money, But do you like diego on that spot?
Speaker 6 (26:12):
You know, I have gone back and forth on this
fight so many times. I know I usually have a
pick locked in for pretty much any fight you bring
up every time I come on here. This is one
I'm gonna have to say, Like, I think this winds
up at the over I think we say that these
submission skills just kind of cancel each other out. I
can't imagine pat Zabattini doing anything to finish Lopez outside
of exhausting him and maybe hitting an arm triangle choke.
(26:35):
But even then, I don't know that Lopez is gonna
tie your out. And as far as Lopez goes, you know,
his crafty submission game works really well on a lot
of fighters. I'd be shocked to see it work on
Sabatini outside of you know, sweeping and scrambling and winding
up back on the feet, where I do think he
is a touch better. Don't see either of him knocking
each other out, So I think I just like the
over here.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
Well, and how about this?
Speaker 1 (26:55):
You get great value with your call there plus an
hour fifty five over two and a half rounds, and
for the fight just to hit the cards without picking
a winner. Daan's gonna give you a plus a dollar, Ready, Dan, well,
but DraftKings will that's pretty darn good value right there
for this fight to hit the cards here in New
York City. Let's get to some other fights on the premium
card that I know you've got your eye on. John
Castaneda right now is a small betting favorite against Jung
(27:17):
Ho Kang. Right now, Kang is plus a dollar twenty
in the comeback, Castaneda MINUSEDAR forty two.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
What do you make of that matchup there?
Speaker 6 (27:25):
Again, this is a line I'm absolutely shocked on. When
I saw the fight posted, I assumed Castaneda to be
two to one at least favorited. And the problem here
is is that I think people are thinking Kyung Ho
Kang has the wrestling to stop Castaneda. He's huge, right
Like people have said time and time to get a
big bodied banam way and a lot of times he's
used his own wrestling to win fights. But at the
(27:46):
end of the day, Kyung Ho Kang is only beating
guys with his wrestling who don't really know how to
wrestle all that well, right Like he's beating strikers with
that wrestling and that size, and a lot of it
is just brute strength. And brute size. Castaneda is a
guy who trains wrestling in Minnesota at the same place
brock Lessner used to train his. And he's got a
bantam weights version of that body right Like, he's got
(28:07):
the big shoulders, he's got the double leg takedowns, he's
got the arm triangles. I think we see a guy
with much more technical wrestling here, just absolutely dominating Kyong
Ho Kang in that realm. And to be honest, I
think he's got the boxing that could put him away too.
I don't think he should stay there very often because
I think that's a way more dangerous route for him.
But I think if he goes to that wrestling early,
(28:29):
you're gonna see him win this fight easily.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Minus doar forty two. Love that price point that we're
getting here on a Tuesday. You better get it now
because after Dan's word gets out, it's gonna go up.
Let's get to Steve ver Sig here against Alessandra Costa
Costa right now. The comeback is plus a dollar forty
or seg minus a doar sixty six. Is this number
still playable for you for Steve?
Speaker 6 (28:49):
Yeah, it's still playable for me for Steve.
Speaker 4 (28:51):
It's gone up a little bit here.
Speaker 6 (28:52):
He was originally a little bit closer to a pick him,
which obviously I would have liked. But I like Steve
Versik here for a couple of reasons. I think Costa's
being played up because of his takedown defense. His takedown
defense is phenomenal. We saw it against the mire El Bezi, which,
of course, if you're doing it against simular A Bazie,
you've got some good takedown defense. But I think people
are underestimating that Steven Ersek doesn't just need his submission
(29:13):
game to win. Yes, the bulk of his wins do
come by re naked choke, They come by guillotine, all
that kind of stuff, But as we saw in his
last fight with David Duvorick, he doesn't need that to
beat you. He outboxed David Dvorick easily in his last fight,
And I really think that people are maybe sleeping a
on how just good of a boxer he is. Plus,
we're talking about a massive height advantage in this fight.
(29:34):
We're talking about four inches of height advantage on Alessandra Costa.
It's only listed as two inches of reach, but I
tend to think the functionality of that reach is a
little bit longer because he's got you know, he leans
with his jab more better. I think his arms are
actually longer cost to of course, they measure the chest
and he's got a bigger chest there too, so I
think the functional reach of ersk is even better than
(29:54):
the two inches, and I think you're gonna see that
play with his jab here.
Speaker 1 (29:57):
Do you think this fight hits the cards here or
do you think because you look at the submission price
here for a sec it's plus three seventy five ko
tkrdy q is.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
Six to one.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
So using that height advantage, certainly, maybe even obviously, this
fight hits the ground. That's where the sub could come
into play. It feels like right now I would say
that they're leaning you towards that decision prop at plus
two to ten.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Do you think you can get it done inside the distance?
Speaker 6 (30:19):
I think the decision prop makes sense, as much as
I want to be able to say, like, no, call
him for a submission, call him for a finish here
on the feet, He's not really finishing anybody of Alessandro
Costa's ability level on the feet, So again I'm not
just trusting that he will do it suddenly now, and
with the fact that Costa has such good takedown defense
and seemingly pretty good jiu jitsu once he's there too,
(30:40):
is I don't think Ersk is going to send anything
up there outside of like a club in some so
I think you're really just grasping at straws if you're
looking for a finish here, and I think the smart play.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Is to just assume this goes the distance more Sev
against Sodakov. Nazeem right now is a small favorite at
minus a dollar thirty five. But Dan, I think you
think we might have a long life doogs scenario here.
Speaker 6 (31:01):
I love Slava Claus and I know that he has
a massive flaw in his game, and I do mean
massive flaw. He has a huge issue with wrestling. Seemingly
every time we've seen him fight somebody who can shoot
a decent takedown, he's looked bad doing it. The problem
is is I think we're thinking of that issue. We're
seeing a guy whose last name ends an Ov, and
(31:21):
we're assuming that he's able to take him down. The
Ziem Sodakov is not some amazing wrestler. Nazim Soadakov got
taken down early and often by Terrence McKinney. He's got
no successful takedowns in the UFC so far. He spent
four minutes on his back in that Terrence McKinny fight. Now, granted,
he did come back in that fight because Terence mcginney
gasses in the way that Terence McKinney always gasses. But
(31:44):
we're talking about a guy who doesn't wrestle much, hasn't
shown any interest in wrestling much, and is going to
strike with a dude who has been an absolute sniper
on the feet right like Slava Claw is going all
the way back to his time on Contender Series. The
thing you know about him is he's a dangerous puncher.
So we've got a guy who likes to strike and
a guy who is going to oblige him in that fight.
(32:05):
I'm gonna take Slava clause I think he's got the
harder hands, i think he's got the more dangerous ability
to finish this fight, and I think he's even got
probably the speed advantage here too.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
And plus money right now, so gobble that up.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Why you can got about ninety seconds, got to get
to the co maine of the main event here, Pavlovitch
and gets aspenal for the interim belt here. Not the
fight we thought we're gonna get, but maybe the fight
we deserve. Who is going to be the interim champion
here in the heavyweight division.
Speaker 6 (32:30):
I know you were talking to me before we recorded
last week about I can't believe I'm getting Pavlovich at
this price. I'm actually siding with Tom Aspinall.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Oh the more and more.
Speaker 6 (32:38):
I think about it, I'm just the question mark about Sarahgay.
Pavlovich's wrestling defense to me is too big to really
trust him at any price, and it's basically a pick
him right or damn close to it. So I'm gonna
go with Tom Aspinall on this one, thinking that his
wrestling carries the day. I would have liked to see
Curtis Blades test that wrestling of Pavlovitch and maybe we'd
know more, but instead he played patty cake with him
(33:00):
until he was woozy. So I'm gonna go with Pavlovich
as the first guy to test that, and I think
he gets it done for a first guy since over
him at least, and I think he gets it done
that way. Yeah, in the other fight, yeah, I'll give
you that one quick too. I'm gonna go with Yuri Prohashka.
I think his unconventionality, like the fact that he's just
weird as hell on the feet. I think it's weird
for a guy like Haena, right, Like Hada is not
(33:22):
going to know what to do with that spinning and
all that kind of weirdness. So yeah, give me Yury Proshka,
especially if you can get him at plus money.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
You can't get him at plus money right now plus
dollars ten. I just hope the shoulder is okay because
that has the chance to be one of the wildest
fights we've seen it quite some time for.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
The light heavyweight Championship.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
Damn appreciate she has always my friends. Give him a
follow there at Gunny Breelan on X.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
When we come back. We're going to Washington, DC Riccoup
next year.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
On first Trick, we continue our look to UFC two
(34:15):
ninety five day Ross here at Circus Sports Book in
fabulous Las Vegas, going out to the Nation's Capitol.
Speaker 2 (34:19):
Catch up with our guy. Read Kohon.
Speaker 1 (34:20):
You can follow him on X at Fight Nomics. He
is the author of a book of the same name.
Read when we get to a big pay per view
as Britain has. Our producer and I were discussing in
the break that means it's menu time at the Kun household.
Now what will that menu consist of? Have you when
do you start putting it together? Because this is one
(34:41):
of the best fight cards of the year.
Speaker 4 (34:44):
So this is the last second last pay per view
of the year.
Speaker 7 (34:47):
The final pay per view card is usually a dinner party,
and I do like battles by round. I have like
championship rounds and the prelambs. We do like a white
wine battle taste off between California in France. Then we
get into the red wines, and then there's a beer
pong tournament that goes on during the pay per view
card with a Golden Budd award for whoever makes my shots.
(35:08):
So that's at the end of the year. That's not
this Saturday. This Saturday, I think is just for me.
My wife's on call that night, so I think I
might just be doing stak dinner for one or room
service for her.
Speaker 4 (35:18):
We'll see.
Speaker 7 (35:18):
But I do like to stay in when the weather
gets a little cooler, do some good home cooking, enjoy
the fight card.
Speaker 4 (35:25):
I'm excited for Saturday.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
That sounds like the coolest event of the year Britain has.
I think we have to petition to take the show
on the road for one of those that, or at
least we got to get a camera because that sounds
amazing to me. Let's get to this fight guard and
see with the numbers and where they're leaning you here
on a Tuesday, as we look ahead to one of
the more exciting fight cards that we've got on the docket,
one of them is fascinating to me. It's Jared Gordon
against Marco Madsen. We know what Madsen wants to do, obviously,
(35:50):
he wants to use that wrestling pedigree. Gordon wants to
keep the fight standing coming off the concussion, and we
didn't know about it and kind of kept it under wraps.
What are the numbers showing you here for the kind
of wrestler versus striker matchup?
Speaker 4 (36:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (36:04):
Mark Madison is an interesting guy because he came in
with such good wrestling credentials and he did have success
early on using that wrestling. But if you look at
the numbers anyway, they don't really show you the numbers
of a really great wrestler dominant wise, his ground control
is somewhere in the fifties, so you would expect an
elite grappler to be up in the nineties. You know,
(36:25):
someone who is generally the one in control on the mat.
That's a very important measurement that I look at. Gordon
is actually higher by that metric. He has been technically speaking,
a more effective wrestler than Madson on the ground, and
so that's a big red flag if you're thinking, hey,
elite credentials wrestling, automatic win or automatic value. That is
(36:45):
something I have looked for in the past. But in
this matchup, I think Gordon is just more well rounded.
First of all, he's going to be the more proven
striker on the feet, and I think he is. His
wrestling is good enough to hang with Madson, at least
in an MMA type of environment where he's mixing it up,
and so in a three round fight, I'm hoping that
Gordon is the one who is able to change levels
(37:06):
a little bit more effectively. Age is also a concern
for Madson as he's approaching forty if you can still
do what he's done in the past, So I do
think Gordon is showing up well on paper, he shows
up well in the models, and yeah, I gotta lay
a little juice for him. But this is overall a
fairly well matchup matched card in terms of betting lines.
So I think I'm going Gordon here, and I think
(37:27):
it's a bargain.
Speaker 1 (37:28):
Yeah, you know, fascinating when you look up and down
the card, you don't see these huge favorites that we
see from time to time, six hour betting favorites of
the light that is not existing on this fight card.
Very quickly, when you mentioned that we know what Madson
wants to do with the wrestling, you mentioned Gordon's pretty
good there, maybe even better than number showing. Does that
wing you towards an over here? Would you look at
Gordon via decision? Do you think there is finishing potential?
Speaker 7 (37:51):
Either guy has actually landed a single knockdown, which is
a little bit surprising because we do have several hours
of fight time combined, and we also have zero submission
attempts permitted on the ground anyway, so there's not a
lot of finishing potential here. I think this turns into
more of a positional stalemate. I think Gordon can be
a little bit more effective with the strikes. But then
(38:12):
I don't think any either one of these guys is
really going to roll over the other one on the map.
Speaker 4 (38:16):
I think it's just going to be more of a
position mismatch.
Speaker 7 (38:21):
I think that's what Gordon is hoping for is just
be the one who lands on top, stifle the offense,
tire him out. He's thirty nine, and hope you can
get you the round victory. So I'm definitely going over
on this one and two if you.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Like Gordon by decision, by the way, plus money there
at plus a dollar twenty five excellent information. As always,
I'm fascinated by Mackenzie durn two point zero if you will.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
She seems much more aggressive when she's out there.
Speaker 1 (38:45):
She looks like a different woman now at one hundred
and fifteen pounds against the former champ here and just
gone drage and you know, father Time, as they say,
is undefeated.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
What are the models showing you here?
Speaker 1 (38:56):
Is that a lean towards Dern with what her recent
Mackenzie Durna looks like in her form versus the recent
form of Jessica and Rage, which does not look as
good as she did when she was the title holder.
Speaker 7 (39:08):
Yeah, it's interesting if you line up career metrics, they're
actually a little bit misleading. They might tell you that
Andrage has the better ground game, which I don't really believe.
And they might also tell you that Durn's striking is
maybe better than it really is. So if I take
a more recent view of the data, I think Androge
has struggled against good grapplers lately, especially bigger, stronger people,
(39:32):
and so she's been trying to flirt with different weight classes.
It didn't quite work out at flyweight. She's back at straweight,
which I agree that's where she should be. She has
been successful there obviously, But Durn does seem to be
the new breed and her grappling credentials are excellent. And
so if you had to design someone who could deal
with Androge, hopefully it's a big, strong girl like Durn
(39:53):
who has clear grappling advantages. And Androge is not like
she's any slouch on the ground, but she has struggled there,
she has been finished there, and so I think Durn
is in the pole position to.
Speaker 6 (40:03):
Do just that.
Speaker 7 (40:04):
I just don't want Durn to fall in love with
her striking, to get over confident every now and then
she starts to unleash the hands and she gets into
deep waters. I think that could get her into trouble
against someone as powerful as Andrage. So hopefully Dern just
uses the hands to set up the takedowns, maybe using
the fence as well. But she needs to get this
to the ground, and if she does that, I think
(40:25):
she's clearly in the position control.
Speaker 1 (40:27):
Let's stay in the same division here with lup Gadina's
against Tabitha Ricci, and Ricci right now is the underdog
against Loopy in this one.
Speaker 2 (40:36):
What are the numbers showing you here? As we stay
in the Strawway division.
Speaker 4 (40:40):
Yeah, I think Lupy is going to have the advantage
on the feet.
Speaker 7 (40:43):
She's very accurate as a striker, unusually accurate for that division,
and she has more fight time to rely on in
terms of this data, so I actually believe it she's
a very good at range striker.
Speaker 4 (40:56):
Both women have liked to use their grappling.
Speaker 7 (40:59):
They actually tempt more than the average takedowns, and they
have been very affected on the ground. I think that's
kind of a stalemate here. Maybe Ricci has the advantage
on the mat, but only a little bit.
Speaker 4 (41:09):
I think I think they kind of cancel each other out.
Speaker 7 (41:12):
And if they do that and they have to stand
in trade, that's where I like goodin as it's just
at the current price point, I don't think there's a
ton of value. I think this is more close on paper,
and so yeah, maybe I lean the over, but it's
good and as you know, may be in a squeaker.
Speaker 2 (41:27):
What about the steamroller?
Speaker 1 (41:29):
Matt Ravola very popular fighter fighting in his backyard against
a guy, and Ben was Saint Denis who's been really
really impressive last couple times out. So you can understand
why Ben Wha is a solid favorite here at minus
two thirty.
Speaker 2 (41:41):
Is there a live dog scenario with the wild man
that is the steamroller?
Speaker 4 (41:46):
Yeah, live by the sword, died by the sword. I
mean Fravola.
Speaker 7 (41:49):
He has a very high knockdown rate, but equally he
has eaten some in return, whereas Saint Denise has been
very good offensively and clean on his defense. He hasn't
take damage, he hasn't been knocked down. Arguably, his grappling
metrics are much more superior than for Vola, at least
effectively what he's done in the cage. So I do
see a lot of advantages here for the Frenchman, I'm
(42:12):
probably gonna have to lay the juice though he's roughly
two to one, I think over for Vola. For Vola
does have that knockout capability, He's got the puncher's chance.
I just hope that this gets out of the first
round and then Benoir runs.
Speaker 4 (42:27):
Away with it.
Speaker 7 (42:27):
I think he is superior on both levels, at least
technically speaking.
Speaker 1 (42:31):
They're going to pull my USA card if I back
a Frenchman over Team USA. Here at matt Ravola, Let's
get to the Covide in the main event here. I'm
fascinated by both of these fights. I want to see
if you have any early leans. I'll go to the
main event here to begin the conversation with Alex Pajara
against Yuri Prahashka.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Big fan of both these guys. I don't know that
the numbers.
Speaker 1 (42:51):
I wonder what they show you here for Pajara in
this new weight class year, his second time out against
the former champion, coming off that year layoff and that
awful shoulder injury.
Speaker 2 (43:00):
What are the numbers showing you here on a Tuesday.
Speaker 7 (43:03):
Yeah, there is this complication of Porea only moving up
to light heavyweight just recently he did perform well better
than expected. I think he is more likely to mix
up his strikes, at least utilized leg kicks and body
kicks again based on his history to date.
Speaker 4 (43:19):
I don't know if he changes that game plan.
Speaker 7 (43:20):
Here, but neither man is going to take a lot
of takedown attempts, you know. So I think we expect
to get what we want, which is a stand up
striking duel, and that's what makes this interesting. I think
Porea is the more proven kickboxer outrange Jerry. Obviously he's
a wild card. I mean, who knows what he's going
to pull out. But Jerry, the problem is his defense
(43:42):
is that he is eating punches at a very high rate.
That is a dangerous thing to do, especially in this
division against a great striker like Pahea. So that leaves
me with a slight slight lean on Pahea, but not
enough where I feel like I want to play this one.
I think there's too much uncertainty. I think this really
is one of those coin flip type fikes. Someone might
land something if not, I think Baja gets a decision,
(44:05):
but I'm a little worried about who might get a
finish first.
Speaker 2 (44:08):
Only have about twenty seconds.
Speaker 1 (44:09):
Do you have any quick thoughts here on aspinall against
Sergey Pavovich.
Speaker 4 (44:14):
Only that I hope to get more data from these
two guys.
Speaker 7 (44:16):
I mean, combined, they only have thirty three minutes of
octagon time and they're fighting for a title, which is ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (44:22):
So I'm looking for Aspinal. I think he is the
better and more well rounded fighter.
Speaker 7 (44:26):
He has a slight edge on paper metrics wise, I
think I will be playing him, and at least I
don't have to lay a lot of juice on it. Admittedly,
this line should stay tight, and I hope it does.
Speaker 2 (44:36):
Grid can't wait to see the menu.
Speaker 1 (44:38):
Give everybody give him a follow on AX thanks to
Rob Arano with Britten has enjoy UFC two ninety five.
Speaker 2 (44:44):
I'll see you next week right here on First Strike
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