December 12, 2023 • 44 mins
We have TWO title fights for the last UFC event of 2023!
The flyweight title is on the line as newly crowned champion Alexandre Pantoja defends against Brandon Royval in the co-main event.
And in the main event, Leon Edwards defends the welterweight title against Colby Covington.
Dave Ross is joined by Zayd Hussein, Lou Finocchiaro, Reed Kuhn, and Jordan Sherwood. They break down this stacked card to find the best bets to make before the fights this weekend.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
And welcome to First Strike here on Visa and I'm
your host Dave Ross. For the next hour, we're gonna
break down UFC two ninety six, maybe arguably the deepest
card of the roster for the entire year, the last
calendar fight here in twenty twenty three. Are gonna break
that down with Zebe Lussaint here momentarily in studio moo
fit A, Carol Reid Koon and Jordan Sherwood. A quick
look back what we saw last weekend right here at
(00:36):
UFC Apex and Songa Don keeps on moving on up
in the world. A unanimous decision, very easy decision over
Chris Gutierrez and maybe the co made event was the
one that really I think was a little bit eye
opening there for Clil Rowntree, that power on display again
with a TK win over the Lionheart Anthony Smith. Just
saying I'm not a matchmaker. How fun could a Khalil
(00:57):
Roundtree fight against Alex Pahera be in that weight class?
Speaker 2 (01:01):
I'd sign up to watch that.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
But without further ado, let's bring in Zaid, who's saying
you can follow him on X as I do at
Zaid Underscore, Who's Zaid, great Diavian studio, my friend.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Great to be here, brother, Chicago to Vegas.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Both of us have made the trip piece here for
a week.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
I'm here for eternity Potentiallyay, let's get to this main
card here because again I mentioned when you've got the
first fight of the night and you look at it
and you go, how good.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Is this card?
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Well, you've got only the King of Kung Fu going
up against the rud boy, Randy Brown. Then you go
all the way up to Leon Rocky Edwards against Colby Covington.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
This does feel like the deepest card of the year,
does it not?
Speaker 4 (01:34):
One hundred percent? I think this is the best card
of the year. It could be the best card of
the last couple of years. I mean, you look at
every single fight top to bottom, just absolutely stacked with
great matchups.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
I mean, I'm excited, I'm ready to go.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
You know it's funny because you and I will text
a little bit before the show, and I know that
without telling who which side I'm on. Here does Leon
Rocky Edwards main event against Colby Covington here for the
welterweight title. There are really strong opinions. I do feel
like kind of on both sides here. The money is
coming in on the champ on England's own Rocky Edwards
(02:06):
here now up to.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
A dollar sixty six up.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
You know last week you could have got a pus
a dollar five plus a dollar twenty. Now you can
get plus a dour forty on Kolbe Covington. Is this
just a stylistic matchup and depending on which style you
think is gonna prevail, that's the side you're on.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Yeah, I think there's so many differentiating opinions on this
fight overall. When you look at Colby Covingston, he's a fighter.
We know what he's gonna do. He's gonna pressure for it.
He's gonna look for takedowns continuously. But fighting a guy
like LEONN Edwards, where we've seen in the past him
being able to get back up defense takedowns. We saw
what he did with Kamara Usman. He's very dangerous with.
Speaker 3 (02:37):
His leg kicks.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
He's gonna be able to kick at range. He's gonna
be able to keep it standing. I think he's gonna
be able to take him out. It's effective in the
price now at minus one sixty, I'm all over Leon
Edwards here in this fight.
Speaker 5 (02:47):
You know.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
And I look at the total as they populate here
on a Tuesday, and the total does say it's just
heavily to the over four and a half rounds at
minus a dollar eighty. I feel like that price tag
might be a little bit too steep because you just
mentioned you kind of like Leon. I'm assuming by kotk
r DQ that'd be plus three seventy five. And for Colby,
to me, the manor of victory could be a submission potentially,
(03:10):
if he's able to get him down, that's ten to one.
Do you see finishing potential either way here?
Speaker 3 (03:14):
I definitely see it on the Edwards side.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
However, on the Coolby side, he's more of a controlling grappler,
I would say, rather than submission. So for me, if
I'm taking Edwards, I'm sprinkling Edwards ko here because he
does have the finishing potential. We've seen Colby in recent
fights be very very chinny, So getting up there in
age two year layoff almost you know, I have to
side with Edwards here. He hasn't lost in almost eight
years and he's just been on the roll all right.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Just to explain to my mother, chinney MA means maybe
you can't take a punch anymore.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
That's what we're a little bit worried about.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
If you're on the Colby Covington's side, because we haven't
seen him in a couple of years. Right, So you
come off this big way off, you get put right
into this championship equation here, which a lot of people
neither here nor there, do not think that he's earned
that right to be back in there.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
But you mentioned it. I was there in Chicago at
the already a fight many moons ago.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
Here would he control one of the best ever in Hatfield, Desanjos.
So if you were on the Covie side, would it
be by decision that he would be able to control
Edwards on the ground, And that's the pathway.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Yeah. The pats of.
Speaker 4 (04:09):
Victory for Kobe here is one hundred percent of decision.
You've seen what he does in the past, just breaking
fighters over time. I think he has to get him
to the fence, he has to clinch up, and that's
his best pets to victory, just taking him down and
controlling him on the ground, which we've seen Usman do
for four rounds in the past. But I just think
at this point in his career, Koby Coleminton, it's hard
to see him being able to do that to Lean
the Woods, who's constantly improving.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Yeah, and then that does seem to be the case here.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
If Rocky Edwards can keep this fight standing stuff takedowns,
you would think he'd bet a real good shot to
be And still at the end of the night, Kobe's
got to get those takedowns and have control on the ground.
Let's get to the coomain because it is another title
for Alexandra Pintojia. Pantosia will be defending against.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Brandon roy Vaal.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
This is a rematch here they fought before and again
I think you really like the Pantosia side here.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Tell me why you think that a Dessandre would be
the right side.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
Pantosia for me is the biggest bet of the year,
believe it or not. Pantosia, what we've seen in the
past from him is second to none in the division
grappling wise. His back takes are the best of the
best elite and he's been able to take roy Veld down,
you know, without much resistance. In the most recent bout.
We've seen what he did to Brandon Moreno he could
go five rounds. He's just gonna pressure you until he
(05:17):
gets your back, and once he gets your back, he's
going to finish you. I like Pantosa by submission. I
think it gets done within the first or second round,
and I think we see a repeat of the first fight.
Pantosa is just on a different level right now than
these fighters, and we're gonna see it here again this weekend.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Submission. By the way, for Pantosia the champion is plus
a dollar fifty five.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
What's interesting here is again Royvolve by the way, KRT
krity Q is plus fifty five and again potentially five
round made event here or co made event decision props here.
Look at that six to one each way, six twenty
five on the underdog side. So really, I think what
we're implied here is somebody's gonna get stopped here is
what we're looking at.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
Yeah, to be honest with you, if I would make
that decision prop, I'd make it about almost ten to one,
because he can't win decision here. You know, Pantolsia's shown
his ability to just stay on your back for rounds
and just book round after round after round, and he
could do that here in this fight, if he doesn't
get to finish, Royvell needs a.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Knock out here, all right, So Royvo's got to get
it done by Ko, you would think Pantojia by sub
That's why you're seeing plus a dollar fifty five there
for the champion and for the underdog here plus two
fifty five for the Kotko or DQ prop. Not A
lot of guys are signing up to fight shot Got
rock Mont off here, But the Wonder Boy, Steven Thompson.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
Says, fine, I'll fight. I'll go up there.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Against this monster undefeated here seventeen to zero. And you
look at wonder Boy. We know he's got He's always
been right there on the doorstep of a championship, never
quite got there in the welterweight division. Is there any
punchers or kickboxer's chance in this case for the WonderBoy?
Speaker 4 (06:45):
You know, as much as I love Steven WonderBoy Thompson,
I mean, aging now forty years old, I feel like
he took this fight just to try to get that
last push to the title, you know, maybe getting a knockout.
But it's so hard here against a guy like Shotcott
rock mondof who absolutely nobody wants to see. I mean,
nobody just dodging him left and right. Rock Monoff's gonna
implement their grap link here like we've seen with everybody else.
(07:07):
And I think it's reflective in the price at minus
six fifty.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
And that's why again, stylistically, if you're we talked about
a little bit in the main event with Rocky Edwards
against Colby, you've got to figure out a way if
you're Steven to keep the fight standing, and if he
can keep distance, that's where the leg kicks off Steven
wonder Boy Thompson could come into play.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
I don't want to call it fluky, but we did
see Rocky Edwards do.
Speaker 1 (07:28):
That to win the belt from Kamara Lusman right with
a leg kick curd around the world. Is that the
only pathway for Steven because if Rockmanoff gets inside, you're
thinking get clintonches.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
All of a sudden, here comes that double like takedown.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Yeah, one d percent.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
I think with Steven wonder Boy Thompson, We've seen this
in the past with guys like Bala Mohammad. I mean
even Kevin Holland could have done it and he just
chose to keep it standing. All these fighters have the
ability to take him down to the ground. You know
the secrets out. I hope he's been training his takedown defense,
but I don't think it's gonna matter, sadly, and it's
reflective in this price and again minus six fifty.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
And look at the win by finish for a shot
cut that's minus two twenty. Conversely for Steven. What's interesting
here is twelve to one for Kot Kriediq, but just
win by finish is eleven to one. So it's basically
saying there's no we're not seeing a sub coming from
the Steven WonderBoy Thompson's side.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Oh for sure.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
I mean, if WonderBoy submits him, I think I don't
even know, man, I don't even know.
Speaker 6 (08:23):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
We've seen crazier things, but that does feel like a
crazy thing to happen. There a fight that I think
is perplexing a lot of people on the.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Main event is I love el Kakoley.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
Some would say, why are we still seeing Tony Ferguson,
who just hasn't won in forever still in a main card.
He's gonna get the opportunity against Patty the Batting and
Patty Pimblet and you look at Pimble at over at
almost a three dollars favorite here, But I'm a little
bit surprised that it's not even more. Is there still
some betting respect.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
For el Kakooley?
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Because I always say a great fighter has one great
fight left. We haven't seen it from Tony in a
long time. Might we see it Saturday night?
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Who's gonna carry the boats and the logs? Who's gonna
do it?
Speaker 4 (09:08):
Because we got the David Goggins money coming in right
now on Tony Ferguson, We got the plus two forty
on Tony Ferguson.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
I love it.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
I'm playing it small because I think the powers still
there for Tony. We saw he rocked Michael Chandler. I mean,
look at the fighters that he's been up against. It's
literally just a role of killers. So Tony Ferguson against
a petty pimblet who arguably lost to Jared Gordon by
the vision. I think Jared Gordon got robbed in that
petty as well. So give me Tony Ferguson for just
a little a couple of dollars. Let's get a little
(09:36):
sprinkle on the Tony Ferguson.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
You know, and that's the thing too, because I lean
that way as well. For all the jokes made about
this fight when it was made, you would assume that
Patty pinbut then would be a massive five six dollars favorite.
The fact that he's barely close to three dollars favorite
shows are still respecting the betting market for Elkakoi's what's
the way that he gets done?
Speaker 2 (09:56):
You think it's the hands. He could still have the
power there.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
Yeah, I think he could. He could knock him out
one hundred percent.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
I mean when you look at his other fights, he
still has that power in his hands, and especially with
Michael Chandler. He you know, before he got kaoed, he
rocked Michael Chandler ugably almost finished him. So this is
a fight where there's always four or five fights that
get part laid with the heavy favorites. We're gonna see
Ian Gary Rock Maanoff, We're gonna see Patty Pimblet, and
there's always that one guy that ruinzos parlays Dave, and
(10:22):
I think it's gonna be Patty Pimblet this weekend.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
Plus seven seventy five.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
If you think El Kakui could get a knockout of
Patty the battye one more fight to get to you.
In the main card, Vincente Luke back in there against
Ian Gary. There's been a lot of talk on the
internet about Ian Gary things going on outside of the octagon.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Will it affect his charge here?
Speaker 1 (10:43):
Just at twenty six years young in the Weltswhite division,
he feels like he's ascending.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
But I wonder if Luke. I mean, look at.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
How big a dog Luk is here at plus two
seventy five. Is this a live dog scenario?
Speaker 3 (10:54):
I don't think so.
Speaker 4 (10:55):
I think at this price tag, it's more of a
pass for me, to be honest with you, when you
look at what Gary has done. Undefeated hasn't really been
in trouble inside the UFC. Had one little knockdown, but
otherwise it's been in control of almost every single fight.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
And then Luca is kind of on his way out.
Speaker 4 (11:10):
I mean, we saw in the rda fight he won,
but it wasn't the vintage Lukae that we've seen in
the past. I think this is an Ian Gary decision
written all over it. He might be able to take
him out late as well.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
All right, let's see if he can get it done
and again if you think it's going to be by
decision yet plus money right now on Ian Gary instead
of laying that big price tag, say it always great
to have.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
You in studio, my friend. Enjoy the fight Saturday night
and enjoy Vegas.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Thanks brother there he is everybody.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Jay who's saying give a follow on x as I
Do at Zaida Underscore, who's saying.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
We're going to Arizona next.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
To catch up with the one and Only loof fitted Carol,
Come on back.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
It's first strike right here on Lisa.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
And of course you need to become a Vson Pro subscriber.
If you have not, of course you get access to
our pro tools, pro tips, picks at a Glance and
pro tips also, so a lot of pros there, tools,
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Visit vison dot com.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
Slash subscribe and sign up today.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Always a pleasure to go out to Arizona as we
catch up with the one and Only Loofinnikaro. He is
the host of the About Business podcast. You can follow
him on x as I Do at gamb lou Lo.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Great to have you on here. It is such a
deep card. It's arguably the best card.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Of twenty twenty three. They don't do this by happenstance.
They do it on purpose here to kind of ring
out the old with a spectacular card. I want to
get to the sneak teep, tell the people about it,
how they access it, and what you have this week.
Speaker 6 (13:02):
Well, thanks for having me on, Dave. Besides the Bout
Business podcast that's final releases on Friday. Each Monday, we
preview the card by looking at the lines where they
opened and where they've moved since the openers. And that's
the sneak Teep. It's available each Monday wherever podcasts are
(13:24):
and we're just scratching the surface early in the week
trying to make observations. A couple of which that we
made on the sneak teep yesterday I'll bring up in
one or two of the fights that we discussed today.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Hopefully absolutely love it.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
And again the early bird gets the worm because these
numbers have been on the move.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
We'll get to the main.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
Card here, but a couple of fights that you have
on the undercard. Again, such a deep card here that
I think you've already found some value here to get
Ullin Beckoff against Cody Durton here and I'm seeing uWin
Beckoff right now minus Nars seventy. The comeback on Durden
is plus us a dollar forty two here on the
early prelims. And that's how deep this fight card is,
(14:05):
that this fight is on the early prelims.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
What do you have here? What's the look ahead on
this one?
Speaker 6 (14:12):
The look ahead actually was one twenty eight. Lon Beckov
opened it, and I actually understanding that he's been a
little inactive, and Durden's one four straight after a real
slow start to the UFC. I think that that price
was reflective of a fair handicap. Now the money going
(14:34):
to Ulan Beckov I think I disagree with as well.
We know that the most profitable segment of betting MMAA
is that underdog that opens between one hundred and two
hundred and grows, meaning they see that one fifty or
in this case, the one twenty eight favorite, think that
(14:54):
he should be favored more. They pile on and in
essence offer more advance age or value to the other fighter.
I think that's the case with Durden here. The key
to this fight will be Durden's wrestling and his ability
to go fifteen full. I think this fight's close. It
goes to the third and that's where I think Durden
(15:15):
will have some advantage.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Yeah, we've seen it before with Durden.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Right, if this fight gets dirty and he gets it
down to the ground, it gets control time there and
does not gas.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
He's got a good chance to win this one on
the card. So plus a dollar forty two, you're getting
really good value there.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
Another fight that I'm actually very intrigued by, Aaron Lepski,
the Queen of Violence kind of resurrecting her UFC career,
would have bit here against Casey O'Neil. I saw Casey
tweeting out she cannot wait to get after it against
the Queen of violence in this one.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Are you finding an edge right now?
Speaker 1 (15:45):
In the numbers here, Casey O'Neil almost a two dollar
betting favorite.
Speaker 6 (15:49):
Yeah, this is one I've bumbled all over myself with.
About Business podcast has tried to use Casey O'Neill at
Openers when which was one sixty six, and I tried
again last week at two ten minus two ten and
I fanned both times. So finally this week I decided
(16:10):
in the sneak teep, we're definitely going to use her.
I got her at a little bit better price. I
used her in a parlay. But the handicap here is
Lipsky clearly an improving fighter, especially since she bellied up
with Nunez and went to her training camp. Her strikings
really improved. O'Neill came back off a knee I think,
(16:33):
relatively quickly to fight a capable Jen Maya and got
beat in a tough fight. I think it was too
quick on the bounce. I love her on the bounce
here off a loss in this fight, and while Lipsky
is talented, this fight's shaded over two and a half
like three hundred. I looked for Casey O'Neil to win
(16:56):
a dominant decision or perhaps even finished Ski late in
this fight.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
O'Neil right now via decision is plus a dollar twenty
five if you think she can get the fight done
inside the distance.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
There it's two.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
Dollars, so you can get some solid plus money there
on a two dollar betting favorite.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
I'm picking up certainly what you're putting down there.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
I do want to get to the main event because
I feel like and this is why.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
I love this show, among other reasons.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
But you're going to get varying opinions sometimes in some
of the biggest fights, and this is obviously for the
wel to White Championship of the World. It feels like
Rocky Edwards is now starting to it's starting to balloon
up a little bit. It's now up to a dollar
sixty six here Colby Covington and the comeback now it's
plus a dollar forty.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
You're not getting those prices even a week ago.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
Now, why do you think the money is coming in
on Rocky and do you think it's money being well spent?
Speaker 6 (17:49):
Well, that's really a great question. I'll disclose that at
openers nine months ago, this was minus one ten each
side and released Colby Covington. So I sit currently Colby
Covington minus one ten and you can currently get plus
one forty. Do I still like him at minus one ten? Yes,
(18:11):
so I must love him at one forty. Look, I
don't know why the money's on Leon. I clearly read
this line moving the wrong way. I think Leon has
a lot to answer. He's yes, he's beaten the arguably
the welterweight goat in Uzman two straight times, but this
(18:31):
was an usman that wasn't a wrestling usman. His legs
were gone, his knees were shot, and in the second fight,
I believe he was compromised. I'll give Rocky the first fight.
I had him a stroke of lightning, catching lightning in
a bottle. I'll take it. But as I handicap this fight,
(18:51):
I just believe that if Covington can get over the size,
Rocky's the bigger man, the longer man, he's surely the
more capable man on the feet. So Covington's plan is clear,
and it's no surprise. He's gonna have to be a
wet blanket, press him against the fence, and find a
way to get him down. I look for Colby Covington
(19:13):
to be losing this fight for three and a half
rounds and then in the championship rounds. I think that's
when this fight turns. And it's the number one weapon
that all wrestlers possess, and that's cardial.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
Well, and that's the thing. I'm surprised. I full disclosure here.
I gobbled up some tickets at Kobe A plus ADAR
twenty not thinking this line move would go where it
has gone. So I'm surprised, like you, are here. What's
interesting to me is you think he might be in
trouble early in this fight. Will this be a live
wagering spot for you? If this number ballounds upsay to
wee On at minus four or five dollars. If he
(19:49):
is able to quote unquote win those early rounds.
Speaker 6 (19:53):
That's a really good question. It has to It depends
how the takedowns look. If Lienne's two big, too strong,
too fresh, and Colby's trying to take down a Sequoia Redwood,
then that'll affect me negatively. However, if I see Leon
beginning to tire like he did in the first fight
against Dusman, if there's duress and listen, Covington is a
(20:16):
lot of things. He's a pampus rear end, but he's
also a college graduate and he's highly intelligent. Yes, and
his fight IQ is off the chart. He knows he
has to take Leon deep, and I'm looking for him
to do just that.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Yeah. Again, go back to in the town.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
Would he fight with Kolbe He's he's not going to
mess around on the feet. I can't see that scenario.
He's got a clinch fight. He's got to try to
take this fight down to the ground. I'm with you,
certainly on the pathways to victory there coming of that
very quickly. A Dessandre Panosia is going to defend against
Brandon Royval. This is a rematch here. Money's coming on
Platosia on the champions now up to a dollar eighty five.
(20:53):
I look at roy Val as that wild man in
the octagon, Pantosia more kind of steady as she goes.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
Here's style of fight. Do you think is going to
play out here in the comin event?
Speaker 6 (21:03):
That's a great question. I look for pantot excuse me,
I look for Roybal to be less wild man of
the pompous and more mature, more refined, and more confident.
When he thought Pantosia to the split decision, by the way,
two and a half three years ago, he was not
(21:26):
the mature fighter he is today. Pantosia is a champion today,
but let's not forget the unbelievable emotional roller coaster that
Pantosia has been on since he won that title. I'll
add something here to this. In this triumvirent, in this
weight division, I think that I see Moreno being able
(21:50):
to best Pantosia excuse me, I see Marino being able
to best Roybal. I think Royval can best Pantosia, and
yet I think Pantosia can best Moreno, I think there's
a trium bleeve there that's incestuous. And so I've answered
your question by saying I think roy Val is live.
(22:13):
I'm gonna be quiet and just let this price go
up as high as it'll go, and then I'm going
to give him a taste because I think he's ready.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Oh, very smart man, Loof and a Carol. Yeah, I'm
with you on that too. I look at it like,
just wait. If you're on the roy Vaal side, the
money should keep coming in. On Pantosia, you'll get the
best of the number.
Speaker 7 (22:30):
Lil.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
Last time we speak in twenty twenty three, Happy howadays,
Merry Christmas.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Can't wait to keep this going. In twenty twenty four,
Thank you, my friend.
Speaker 6 (22:37):
Thanks for having me.
Speaker 7 (22:38):
Good luck everyone there.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
He is everybody best in the biz.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
Loof and a Cairo follow him on x at gam
Wu when we come back, going to Washington, DC to
catch up with Riku.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
Next here I first.
Speaker 5 (22:48):
Right, college Bowl season is upon us and Vson as
(23:12):
an early Christmas present for you.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
I'm not a Vison PRIs subscriber yet, Well, no problem.
We're giving away this year's College Bowl Betting Guide to everybody.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
We've got spreads, totals.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
Expert picks from the Golwicks, Steve McKinnon, Brent Musburger for
every single bowl game. Put them on in this bowl
season and get a free copy of our Vson College
Football Betting Guide absolutely free. Visit Vison dot com Slash
Bowl Guide and get your free copy today. For the record,
when Brett Musburger is giving out free picks, you need
(23:41):
to get the bull Betting Guide.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Just gonna leave it there.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
Let's go out to Washington, DC to catch up with
our guy or Reidkoon. You can follow read on X
as I do at Fight Nomics. He is the author
of a book of the same name. Read great to
have you back on, my friend. As we get closer
and closer to the last card of the year, what
do you do when the UFC takes off? Do you
just enjoy the holiday season? Gear up for January twenty
twenty four?
Speaker 8 (24:06):
I definitely get a little antie after a few weeks
of no fights, because I have a nice routine you know,
each week from the numbers, write some articles, look forward
to seeing where the lines go.
Speaker 7 (24:16):
Doing a show with you. This is part of my
weekly habit, so I will definitely get anti. There'll probably
be a lot of stress cooking.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
I'm sure it will be.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
But I can't wait to follow on X to see
what you got cooking for this one because UFC two
ninety six, I don't even know, it's debatable. Feels like
the best car top to bottom by far. And I
mentioned something off the top that when you have the
Rude Boy against the King of Kung Fu to start
off the night the proceedings, if you will, you know
it's going to be an incredible night of action. And
I think you've got some data points on that fight.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
In particular.
Speaker 1 (24:46):
What are you seeing from Randy Brown here against Muslim Salkov?
Speaker 8 (24:50):
Yeah, First of all, an eight inch reach differential. This
is probably one of the biggest differentials I've seen in
recent history. I think I'd have to go back to
like Stefan Strube versus.
Speaker 7 (25:02):
Patrick.
Speaker 8 (25:03):
He thought someone there was like a foot height differential,
absolutely crazy.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
So say I believe, I believe way back in the day.
Speaker 8 (25:13):
I have to come back to it, but in this
case an eight is reached. Differential is extremely unusual. And
when I look at what makes someone effective defensively, it's
avoiding those head strikes and being able to create space
and not get taken down. John Jones is a great
example of this because he is one of the rangiest
guys in his division. He doesn't get hit very much
because he controls that range. Randy Brown uses his range
(25:37):
very effectively, and he's facing a guy who actually is
somewhat hesitant as a striker.
Speaker 7 (25:43):
He allows people to outstrike him.
Speaker 8 (25:45):
And you combine those two things together, I think Randy
Brown is going to be in complete control of the position.
Speaker 7 (25:51):
Also, layer in.
Speaker 8 (25:51):
He's got pretty good takedown defense and a submission game.
Speaker 7 (25:55):
So this is actually a kind of lopsided.
Speaker 8 (25:58):
I mean, I do feel strongly Randy Brown is in
control here, and his.
Speaker 7 (26:02):
Price will be somewhat steep. I'm wily delayed juice though
there It.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
Is right now two seventy if you like the rude
boy here, and that price tag might go up.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
Set a read's point.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
If you do like the favorite side, you might want
to get on that one sooner rather than later. You know,
we saw last week Tim Elliott was a short replacement
to get in there against Summer Jerry, and you look
absolutely spectacular. You've got another fight on this card where
I think the data is leaning towards a short replacement
that would be thug Nasty and Bryce Mitchell, who comes
in against Josh emmittt now as over a two dollars
(26:33):
betting favorite. Again, these are your uber tail of the
tapes which are absolutely spectacular. Are the data points backing
up Bryce as a big favorite?
Speaker 7 (26:42):
Here they are and you've already alluded to it.
Speaker 8 (26:45):
We do have another great grappler who's coming in, and
it almost feels like those grapplers can come in and
do their thing a little bit easier than pure striker,
who might need to watch a lot more tape, might
need to understand what combinations, what setups he's going to use.
Bryce Mitche is going to wet blanket you. He's going
to have smooth transitions even after he's on the ground
going back and forth. And Josh Emmett, he's coming off
(27:08):
a very lopsided beating from the summer. He took a
lot of damage in that he's now going to be
you know, he's pushing thirty nine. He does have the
big right hand. He swings big, he misses big, but
when he lands, you know, he does pretty well. I
think recently we haven't seen a lot of that. And
Bryce Mitchell, as long as he does not get caught early,
(27:28):
I think he's going to take this down.
Speaker 7 (27:29):
Takedown defense for Josh Emmett thirty eight percent.
Speaker 8 (27:32):
That's average, not even average, it's a little below average. Also,
control time not favorable. So yeah, this is really stacked
to favor the grappler and that's why he's another guy
like Brown that I'm probably going to be thrown into
a lot of parlays.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
I also, when you mentioned obviously you can just see
it happening right at it with a big right hand,
missus thug Nasty's shoots a double and gets his fight.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
Down to the ground.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Do you see finishing potential in the data points there
or is it more of a control because we know,
like maybe a twister could be a play for Bryce
Mitchell when he gets down to the ground, he does
book to finish, not just control.
Speaker 8 (28:05):
Correct, he actually does have a pretty high submission attempt rate.
Speaker 7 (28:12):
Emmett.
Speaker 8 (28:12):
We haven't really seen him lose a lot by submission
but he did fairly recently actually against Cio Rodriguez, so
he's not you know, undefeatable.
Speaker 7 (28:20):
On the ground. So yeah, I do see finishing potential,
just because I think.
Speaker 8 (28:24):
Mitchell is going to have a lot of opportunities if
he's spending over ten minutes in control in a three
round fight, he's gonna have opportunities from top, from you know,
RNCs and Emmett. Also you're hedging against EMMITTT maybe landing
something huge if you're playing the under.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
Yeah, it feels like it. So again, win by finish.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
You can get plus money on Bryce Mitchell there if
you think you can get it done inside of the distance.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
If it's going to go the distance, you're going to
plus a dollar.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
Twenty five right now on Thug Nasty to win if
it hits the judges scorecards.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
I get a little bit sad read.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
Sometimes when I look at your numbers and because your
numbers don't and that's why you take the emotion out
of it for somebody like me, when I look at
shaft rockmanoff and look, rock monov Is is just a
beast that nobody wants to fight.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
So I really applaud.
Speaker 1 (29:11):
Stephen WonderBoy Thompson when he says, fine, I'll fight the
undefeated monster right there.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
I mean, I know that wonder Boy believes that this
is the type of victory.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
If he was able to get it, they would put
him right back in title contention.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
But I look at all the check.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
Marks on your uber tail of the tape, and it
tells me this might not be wonder boys night. What
are you seeing here from the data points? Okay, and
I think we're gonna treat get back to read Koon
if we could. But again, these are read Koon's uber
tail of the tapes, the numbers that you see, and
right now, all of those data points are leaning towards
(29:48):
Shafcot rockmanoff. And again, when you've got a six over
a six hour betting favorite, you can understand why so
read even though all the data points are going towards
the younger fighter here by eleven years. Is he overvalued
or the data points backing up that he should be
this big a favorite?
Speaker 8 (30:07):
They're backing it up. It pains me to say that
I used to work with Thompson. I used to do
his scouting reports way back in the day. But yeah,
you just call that one of the biggest data points
on here, which is eleven year age differential.
Speaker 7 (30:18):
That is extremely unusual in this game. And we've already
talked about how important age is.
Speaker 8 (30:24):
So and Thompson is a striker Offensively, he's not losing
anything with age. It's defensively where that's a factor. But
in this fight it's also the stylistic mismatch. We do
have an oppressive grappler in shot Cut, and he's pretty
competent with his hands as well, very accurate fifty seven
percent striking, and he actually has the longer reach, So
(30:45):
that says to me he's going to be able to
hold his own. You hope that Thompson isn't getting chiney
at this point, but still he's asking a lot to
be able to win a three round fight purely on
his feet against someone who's willing to change levels like this.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
I want to get to some of the data that
shows up.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
Maybe we've got some live dog scenarios at play here,
because you know me, I'm always looking for good value
and one of those fights that I look at is
No Love against Boom Right. You got Brian Keller in
here as an underdog against Cody Garbrandt. Maybe the best
days of both guys are behind him. But I see
potentially a slugfest here. What are the data points showing you?
Speaker 7 (31:25):
Yeah, these guys definitely like the stand in trade.
Speaker 8 (31:28):
Right with Cody Garbrandt, he is the heavier hitter, but
I don't know how much of that relies on his
older data.
Speaker 7 (31:36):
Than his more recent data.
Speaker 8 (31:38):
And if we do take a more narrow window of
what we count as relevant, Garbrant's maybe his best days
or behind him. He has also taken a lot of knockdowns,
so he scores them, he also eats them. And Boom
keller Her, you know, that's what his nickname is. He
may not have the more impressive cumulative metrics, but he
does switch stance. He is, you know, he is at
(32:00):
least not at a reach disadvantage. He's a slight reach advantage,
and he's accurate enough. And both guys are hesitant, but
they're swinging for the fences. And so if you're gonna
give me plus money on one side, I might go
with keller Her for the upset, just because I don't
trust Garbrand's chin at this point.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Plus four seventy five two for Boom to get him
out of there with a KOTK or DQ. I kind
of look at that too and think, if that dog
is barking, that might not be a bad price point either.
Let's speak of another dog here, Lonzo Menifield against Dustin Jacobe. Again,
this card is just so stacked. Menifield over a two
dollars betting underdog. Did that surprise the numbers that you saw.
Speaker 8 (32:37):
Yeah, just because of light heavyweight, you know you have
guys with so much finishing potential, they're very dangerous. Manyfield
not only has the advantage on the power, they're equal
in range, they're equal in roughly age and size. But
Manyfield is much more accurate. He has slightly better defense,
and he has more power. So if these guys are
going to trade leather at light heavyweight, first of all,
(33:00):
that's a great evening metric. It should the line shouldn't
get out of control in either direction. But I do
like Minifield here. I think he has a chance.
Speaker 1 (33:08):
Very quickly comin event and the main event I got
about thirty seconds. But it does feel like the data
points leaning towards the dogs here are being live too.
Speaker 7 (33:16):
You got two live dogs. These are both very close matchups.
Speaker 8 (33:19):
I don't see the line diverging much from where it
is right now, and they're both pretty close to me.
Speaker 7 (33:24):
They both feel like coin flips.
Speaker 8 (33:25):
We've got Covington with the pressure, not the finesse, but
definitely the stifling pressure, and I think that could win rounds.
And then you've got roy Val with the greater finishing
potential against someone who's maybe a little bit more technical,
and so I like the finishing potential in that one.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Absolutely spectacler. I can't wait to keep doing this in
twenty twenty four.
Speaker 8 (33:43):
There he is.
Speaker 2 (33:43):
Everybody read kuon going to Chicago. Next to here on first.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
Right, we roll on this edition of First Strike Dave
(34:16):
Ross here at Circus Sports Book and fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada.
We go to the second city to catch up with
our guy Jordan Sure which you can follow him on
Exit What on ESPN, the host of the Unnamed MMA podcast.
Before we get into this electric card Here at UFC
two ninety six, Jordan Shurewood GM of the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
What are you gonna do with Justin Fields? Do you
keep him? Or do you pick a quarterback with the
number one?
Speaker 6 (34:39):
Overall?
Speaker 9 (34:40):
I think you have to tick a quarterback. Oh with
the number one pick. Oh my, I think yeah, I
think Everlus is gone. Oh, Dustin Fields is gone. You're
starting fresh with an offensive minded quarterback. You're resetting your
quarterback clock, and you're taking maybe it's maybe it's not
Caleb Williams number one. Maybe you're you're packaging something to
(35:01):
move to two or three and grabbing offensive lineman Marvin
Harrison Junior if he does opt to go to the draft,
and then you fall in love with someone else later
on in the draft. But I think Justin Fields is
playing his final four games in a Chicago Bears uniform,
and ever flu Is is coaching his final four games as
the head coach of the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
I think this guy has a pulse in the city
of Chicago, everybody. That's why you get to give him
a listen there and give him a follow on X.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
All right, let's get to the main event here UC
two ninety six, and it is a fascinating I think
stances for everybody out there when you look at Leon
Rocky Edwards against Kolbe Chaos Covington here because stylistically we
know why Leon Edwards is the favorite, because they believe
he's the bigger man on the Edwards side, and that
if he can keep the fight standing, he should be
(35:46):
able to walk through Kobe Covington, who we have not
seen now in.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
A couple of years.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
But there's that pesky thing of cardio and wrestling. What
say you in the main event and who will be
the welterweight champion come Saturday night.
Speaker 9 (36:00):
It's been a tough week so far for me because
I'm backing Kolby Covington and that's rubbing a lot of
people the wrong way. And look, I like money, so
my money's going to be invested in Kolbe Covington. And
the reason I'm going to be investing in Kolbe Covington
is because we know what Leon Edwards are. The type
of fighter he is. He does struggle with guys that
get in his face. He prefers to move backwards as
(36:24):
opposed to forwards. He has struggled with wrestlers at albeit
the one wrestler he struggled with was Kamara Uzman, But
Kolbe Covington kind of brings a little bit of a
different type of game plan from a wrestling standpoint, doesn't
have the power that Uzman possesses. I think has probably
the better takedowns and aggression. So sure not dismissing that
(36:44):
Leon Edwards was able to get over that hurdle and
had one of the most miraculous comebacks we've ever seen
in mixed martial arts and then was able to back
it up. But I could argue that Kamara Usman was
not the same fighter in fight number two or fight
number three, if you will, against Leon Edwards and Kelvin Coumming.
It's not going to mess around with that. He's gonna
get in the face of Leon Edwards and look Leon
Edwards outside of the matchup with Kamara Uzman never prepared
(37:07):
for a wrestler. Look at the laundry list of fighters
that he went through. He didn't get a chance with
Buel Mohammed because there was an ipoke a couple of
seconds into that fight, and outside of that, he hasn't
fought any wrestlers. So yes, he's training for it, he's
preparing for it, but at plus money where it is
right now today on a Tuesday, I like the strategy
of a guy in Kobe Comington that could steal rounds,
(37:27):
get some points, get this fight to the ground. When
he wants and steal a championship. And look, we've seen
crazier things. Sean O'Malley's the champ. Sean Strigg wins the champ.
Why not another guy in that elk if Kobe Covington
getting the stratch.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
Yeah, it's bizarre because I'm getting a lot of that too.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
Why are you back in Kobe Covington, I'm like, because
Leon Rocky Edwards is a backfoot fighter.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
He likes to fight backwards. That is a terrible going
back if you.
Speaker 1 (37:52):
Do that against a guy with Kobe Covington, because he's
going to be able to get you into the clinch
and then shoot those double legs. I'm right there with
you to you now, will the price tag keep coming up?
Because if it does and you're on the Kobe side,
you just wait and get the better of the number.
Speaker 4 (38:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (38:06):
No, I think it's gonna hang around probably where it is,
or it'll it'll fall back in line of a pick them.
I think the people are gonna wisen up realize stylistically,
this is a matchup that does favor Kolbe Covington. Leon
Edwards would not be in this position if you didn't
lant a headkick in the fifth round and the final
minute of that for a second fight against Kamara Uzman.
(38:26):
So I think you've got to grab Kobe Covington now
because I think the value will decrease on him come
fight night.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Let's get to the comin event here out of Sandre
Pantosia against Brandon roy Vall. This is a rematch in
Pantosia now the champion after dispatching Brandon Moreno. And you
know again, I kind of look at it like Pantosia,
as great a run as he's been on, kind of
steady wins the race sometimes with Pantosia, where roy Vohl's
(38:55):
been that wild guy in the octagon.
Speaker 2 (38:57):
Is the dog live to you? And what style of
fight do you.
Speaker 9 (38:59):
Think I'll understand the argument why Brandon royvel would be
a live dog. I think he's not the same fighter
that that that got choked out by Pantoja when they
thought he's on a three fight win streak. Looked really
good in his victory over Nikolai the last time out,
and Pantosia, you know, look is a crazy man at
times as well. He gets in the firefights and he
(39:20):
goes for broke. I just think he's a more cerebral
type of fighter compared to Brandon Royvell, and so I
just think that he's just going to have the advantage everywhere.
He's going to be prepared for the scrambles that Royvel
comes in with. He's going to be prepared for the
crazy submissions that Royval and really the in your face,
you know, balls to the wall kind of out of
(39:41):
the gates fight that that Rouvel brings. So that's why
I think Pantoja certainly has decided I'd like maybe it
to come down a little bit because the Pantoja has
been in some wars, obviously, the fights with moreno and
at some point the wheels are going to come off,
so I'm more comfortable. And actually just the total and
and and the under you know, coming in into at
two and a half, I think is a safer play.
(40:02):
But I think Pantoja does get his hand raised once again,
and I would not be surprised he's he's he's hold
for hold, punch for punch, submission for submission, and get
gets roy Val out of there at some point before
we go to the judges scorecard.
Speaker 1 (40:16):
The under right now, which is amazing for a five
round championship fight is set right there smack dab in
the middle at two and a half, so the under
it is juiced that way to minusadar forty. So we're
expecting finishing potential. So you mentioned Pantoja, you kind of
lean towards that side. Don't like the number so much.
Is that win by finish at Minasadar twenty five something
(40:38):
you might be interested in?
Speaker 9 (40:40):
Yeah, I think so, because again I think Pantoja is
just better. Everywhere is going to be comfortable. This fight
goes to the ground in those crazy scrambles, and I
could see Roy Belt trying to attempt something, gives up
his neck, gives up an arm, and Pantosia, you know,
locks something in. Pantojia wants to make a statement. He's
happy that he's not standing across the cage from Vandon Marie.
I know, you know Moreno might be standing on the cage,
(41:02):
doesn't he the backup, so we could eventually see him
come flight night. But I think I think pantos just
solidifies himself as the rightful Flyway champion of the world
and gets Roy Bell out of there before we go
to the judges scorecard.
Speaker 2 (41:14):
All right, let me do my best.
Speaker 1 (41:15):
Ron Burgundy here because he will read anything that they
put in prompter and knee thing.
Speaker 2 (41:20):
It says here that you have rochmanoff here via violence.
Speaker 1 (41:27):
This is the wonder Boy, this is Stephen Thompson is
somebody's favorite mm A practitioner against Shapcott.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
Is he being fed to the wolves here?
Speaker 3 (41:35):
Yeah?
Speaker 9 (41:35):
And mister nice guy too. And look, look it is
surprising because wonder Boy look great the last time we
saw him in December, you know, stopping Kevin Holland. But
I believe Shoop Rokmanov is going to be the future
champion of the welterweight division, maybe by the end of
twenty twenty four. And I think he starts to let
people understand how good he is by the way that
(41:59):
he's able to handle Steven WonderBoy Thompson. I would have
loved the Steve WonderBoy, you know, versus Prahea, but that
fight wasn't able to take place. He misses weight. Rockmandov
is great everywhere. He can work takedowns, which is obviously
I think the game plan he's gonna look to institute.
He's not gonna want to mess around with a guy
as crafty as anyone we've ever seen on the feet,
(42:22):
that's not where Rochmanov is going to have the advantage.
So I think once again, the takedowns are going to
come in and control and either Thompson gives up his
back and we get a rare naked choke submission, a guillotine,
or rock moant Of I think is gonna get ground
and pound win. I'm gonna be really specific there. Rockmanov
is gonna is gonna take it, take advantage again. He's
a finishing machine, and we see him solidify himself maybe
(42:46):
as the number one contender at one seventy after the
fallout of Edwards and Covington.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Steven wonder Boy Thompson's he says, I'm gonna be champions still,
mark my words. He's got to go through Rockmanov. Good
luck to wonder Boy on that one very quickly. On
the on the prelims here togear A Lulum Beckoff is
a Dodlar seventy favorite against Cody Durden. We know what
Cody wants to do. He wants to wrestle. Do you
have a live dog scenario here?
Speaker 9 (43:10):
I do, because look, I think we know how good
Cody Durden is. I think we know that he could
go hard for the three.
Speaker 7 (43:16):
Rounds Owen Beckoff.
Speaker 9 (43:17):
There's questions about his cardio being able to stand for
those fifteen minutes, and quite frankly, we saw it play
out against a guy that's maybe not going to be
as scrambling as much as Tim Elliott, but Tim Elliott
with the same game plan, the same style was successful
against Owen Beckoff. And I think Cody Durden knows that
he's definitely going to be one of the favorites. You know,
(43:39):
for an underdog to bark on Saturday Night, there's not
a lot of them. In my opinion, I think it's
going to be a heavy, chalky card. But I do
believe that Cody Durdan is a live dog in the
same kind of you know, you know conversation we're talking
about Cobe Covington in the main event only.
Speaker 2 (43:54):
Have about thirty seconds ago.
Speaker 1 (43:56):
Are you even slightly intrigued by the Patty pimblet Tony
Ferguson five.
Speaker 9 (44:01):
Just to see Patti Pevott if he could perform the
what the expectations are, I mean, he should roll in
this fight. Tony Ferguson is not the same fighter that's
once challenging for interim titles. He just doesn't look the
same being dominated. So Patty Pimblet, even though he's coming
off of injury a bit a little bit of a layoff,
should roll in this fight because he's a future star,
and then that's what the UFC is expecting.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
Really appreciate you.
Speaker 1 (44:23):
All year long, Jordan Sherwood, Merry Christmas to you, Thanks
for all the time you give us here at First Strike.
And one I also give a shout out to Rob
Moreno and Britain has to do a great chop putting
this show together, and even why Whyatt tom Check is
sitting back there today too.
Speaker 2 (44:37):
Thanks everybody here First Strike. We'll see you in twenty
twenty four.
And welcome to First Strike here on Visa and I'm
your host Dave Ross. For the next hour, we're gonna
break down UFC two ninety six, maybe arguably the deepest
card of the roster for the entire year, the last
calendar fight here in twenty twenty three. Are gonna break
that down with Zebe Lussaint here momentarily in studio moo
fit A, Carol Reid Koon and Jordan Sherwood. A quick
look back what we saw last weekend right here at
(00:36):
UFC Apex and Songa Don keeps on moving on up
in the world. A unanimous decision, very easy decision over
Chris Gutierrez and maybe the co made event was the
one that really I think was a little bit eye
opening there for Clil Rowntree, that power on display again
with a TK win over the Lionheart Anthony Smith. Just
saying I'm not a matchmaker. How fun could a Khalil
(00:57):
Roundtree fight against Alex Pahera be in that weight class?
Speaker 2 (01:01):
I'd sign up to watch that.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
But without further ado, let's bring in Zaid, who's saying
you can follow him on X as I do at
Zaid Underscore, Who's Zaid, great Diavian studio, my friend.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Great to be here, brother, Chicago to Vegas.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Both of us have made the trip piece here for
a week.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
I'm here for eternity Potentiallyay, let's get to this main
card here because again I mentioned when you've got the
first fight of the night and you look at it
and you go, how good.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Is this card?
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Well, you've got only the King of Kung Fu going
up against the rud boy, Randy Brown. Then you go
all the way up to Leon Rocky Edwards against Colby Covington.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
This does feel like the deepest card of the year,
does it not?
Speaker 4 (01:34):
One hundred percent? I think this is the best card
of the year. It could be the best card of
the last couple of years. I mean, you look at
every single fight top to bottom, just absolutely stacked with
great matchups.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
I mean, I'm excited, I'm ready to go.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
You know it's funny because you and I will text
a little bit before the show, and I know that
without telling who which side I'm on. Here does Leon
Rocky Edwards main event against Colby Covington here for the
welterweight title. There are really strong opinions. I do feel
like kind of on both sides here. The money is
coming in on the champ on England's own Rocky Edwards
(02:06):
here now up to.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
A dollar sixty six up.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
You know last week you could have got a pus
a dollar five plus a dollar twenty. Now you can
get plus a dour forty on Kolbe Covington. Is this
just a stylistic matchup and depending on which style you
think is gonna prevail, that's the side you're on.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Yeah, I think there's so many differentiating opinions on this
fight overall. When you look at Colby Covingston, he's a fighter.
We know what he's gonna do. He's gonna pressure for it.
He's gonna look for takedowns continuously. But fighting a guy
like LEONN Edwards, where we've seen in the past him
being able to get back up defense takedowns. We saw
what he did with Kamara Usman. He's very dangerous with.
Speaker 3 (02:37):
His leg kicks.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
He's gonna be able to kick at range. He's gonna
be able to keep it standing. I think he's gonna
be able to take him out. It's effective in the
price now at minus one sixty, I'm all over Leon
Edwards here in this fight.
Speaker 5 (02:47):
You know.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
And I look at the total as they populate here
on a Tuesday, and the total does say it's just
heavily to the over four and a half rounds at
minus a dollar eighty. I feel like that price tag
might be a little bit too steep because you just
mentioned you kind of like Leon. I'm assuming by kotk
r DQ that'd be plus three seventy five. And for Colby,
to me, the manor of victory could be a submission potentially,
(03:10):
if he's able to get him down, that's ten to one.
Do you see finishing potential either way here?
Speaker 3 (03:14):
I definitely see it on the Edwards side.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
However, on the Coolby side, he's more of a controlling grappler,
I would say, rather than submission. So for me, if
I'm taking Edwards, I'm sprinkling Edwards ko here because he
does have the finishing potential. We've seen Colby in recent
fights be very very chinny, So getting up there in
age two year layoff almost you know, I have to
side with Edwards here. He hasn't lost in almost eight
years and he's just been on the roll all right.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Just to explain to my mother, chinney MA means maybe
you can't take a punch anymore.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
That's what we're a little bit worried about.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
If you're on the Colby Covington's side, because we haven't
seen him in a couple of years. Right, So you
come off this big way off, you get put right
into this championship equation here, which a lot of people
neither here nor there, do not think that he's earned
that right to be back in there.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
But you mentioned it. I was there in Chicago at
the already a fight many moons ago.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
Here would he control one of the best ever in Hatfield, Desanjos.
So if you were on the Covie side, would it
be by decision that he would be able to control
Edwards on the ground, And that's the pathway.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Yeah. The pats of.
Speaker 4 (04:09):
Victory for Kobe here is one hundred percent of decision.
You've seen what he does in the past, just breaking
fighters over time. I think he has to get him
to the fence, he has to clinch up, and that's
his best pets to victory, just taking him down and
controlling him on the ground, which we've seen Usman do
for four rounds in the past. But I just think
at this point in his career, Koby Coleminton, it's hard
to see him being able to do that to Lean
the Woods, who's constantly improving.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Yeah, and then that does seem to be the case here.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
If Rocky Edwards can keep this fight standing stuff takedowns,
you would think he'd bet a real good shot to
be And still at the end of the night, Kobe's
got to get those takedowns and have control on the ground.
Let's get to the coomain because it is another title
for Alexandra Pintojia. Pantosia will be defending against.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Brandon roy Vaal.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
This is a rematch here they fought before and again
I think you really like the Pantosia side here.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Tell me why you think that a Dessandre would be
the right side.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
Pantosia for me is the biggest bet of the year,
believe it or not. Pantosia, what we've seen in the
past from him is second to none in the division
grappling wise. His back takes are the best of the
best elite and he's been able to take roy Veld down,
you know, without much resistance. In the most recent bout.
We've seen what he did to Brandon Moreno he could
go five rounds. He's just gonna pressure you until he
(05:17):
gets your back, and once he gets your back, he's
going to finish you. I like Pantosa by submission. I
think it gets done within the first or second round,
and I think we see a repeat of the first fight.
Pantosa is just on a different level right now than
these fighters, and we're gonna see it here again this weekend.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Submission. By the way, for Pantosia the champion is plus
a dollar fifty five.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
What's interesting here is again Royvolve by the way, KRT
krity Q is plus fifty five and again potentially five
round made event here or co made event decision props here.
Look at that six to one each way, six twenty
five on the underdog side. So really, I think what
we're implied here is somebody's gonna get stopped here is
what we're looking at.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
Yeah, to be honest with you, if I would make
that decision prop, I'd make it about almost ten to one,
because he can't win decision here. You know, Pantolsia's shown
his ability to just stay on your back for rounds
and just book round after round after round, and he
could do that here in this fight, if he doesn't
get to finish, Royvell needs a.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Knock out here, all right, So Royvo's got to get
it done by Ko, you would think Pantojia by sub
That's why you're seeing plus a dollar fifty five there
for the champion and for the underdog here plus two
fifty five for the Kotko or DQ prop. Not A
lot of guys are signing up to fight shot Got
rock Mont off here, But the Wonder Boy, Steven Thompson.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
Says, fine, I'll fight. I'll go up there.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Against this monster undefeated here seventeen to zero. And you
look at wonder Boy. We know he's got He's always
been right there on the doorstep of a championship, never
quite got there in the welterweight division. Is there any
punchers or kickboxer's chance in this case for the WonderBoy?
Speaker 4 (06:45):
You know, as much as I love Steven WonderBoy Thompson,
I mean, aging now forty years old, I feel like
he took this fight just to try to get that
last push to the title, you know, maybe getting a knockout.
But it's so hard here against a guy like Shotcott
rock mondof who absolutely nobody wants to see. I mean,
nobody just dodging him left and right. Rock Monoff's gonna
implement their grap link here like we've seen with everybody else.
(07:07):
And I think it's reflective in the price at minus
six fifty.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
And that's why again, stylistically, if you're we talked about
a little bit in the main event with Rocky Edwards
against Colby, you've got to figure out a way if
you're Steven to keep the fight standing, and if he
can keep distance, that's where the leg kicks off Steven
wonder Boy Thompson could come into play.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
I don't want to call it fluky, but we did
see Rocky Edwards do.
Speaker 1 (07:28):
That to win the belt from Kamara Lusman right with
a leg kick curd around the world. Is that the
only pathway for Steven because if Rockmanoff gets inside, you're
thinking get clintonches.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
All of a sudden, here comes that double like takedown.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Yeah, one d percent.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
I think with Steven wonder Boy Thompson, We've seen this
in the past with guys like Bala Mohammad. I mean
even Kevin Holland could have done it and he just
chose to keep it standing. All these fighters have the
ability to take him down to the ground. You know
the secrets out. I hope he's been training his takedown defense,
but I don't think it's gonna matter, sadly, and it's
reflective in this price and again minus six fifty.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
And look at the win by finish for a shot
cut that's minus two twenty. Conversely for Steven. What's interesting
here is twelve to one for Kot Kriediq, but just
win by finish is eleven to one. So it's basically
saying there's no we're not seeing a sub coming from
the Steven WonderBoy Thompson's side.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Oh for sure.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
I mean, if WonderBoy submits him, I think I don't
even know, man, I don't even know.
Speaker 6 (08:23):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
We've seen crazier things, but that does feel like a
crazy thing to happen. There a fight that I think
is perplexing a lot of people on the.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Main event is I love el Kakoley.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
Some would say, why are we still seeing Tony Ferguson,
who just hasn't won in forever still in a main card.
He's gonna get the opportunity against Patty the Batting and
Patty Pimblet and you look at Pimble at over at
almost a three dollars favorite here, But I'm a little
bit surprised that it's not even more. Is there still
some betting respect.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
For el Kakooley?
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Because I always say a great fighter has one great
fight left. We haven't seen it from Tony in a
long time. Might we see it Saturday night?
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Who's gonna carry the boats and the logs? Who's gonna
do it?
Speaker 4 (09:08):
Because we got the David Goggins money coming in right
now on Tony Ferguson, We got the plus two forty
on Tony Ferguson.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
I love it.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
I'm playing it small because I think the powers still
there for Tony. We saw he rocked Michael Chandler. I mean,
look at the fighters that he's been up against. It's
literally just a role of killers. So Tony Ferguson against
a petty pimblet who arguably lost to Jared Gordon by
the vision. I think Jared Gordon got robbed in that
petty as well. So give me Tony Ferguson for just
a little a couple of dollars. Let's get a little
(09:36):
sprinkle on the Tony Ferguson.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
You know, and that's the thing too, because I lean
that way as well. For all the jokes made about
this fight when it was made, you would assume that
Patty pinbut then would be a massive five six dollars favorite.
The fact that he's barely close to three dollars favorite
shows are still respecting the betting market for Elkakoi's what's
the way that he gets done?
Speaker 2 (09:56):
You think it's the hands. He could still have the
power there.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
Yeah, I think he could. He could knock him out
one hundred percent.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
I mean when you look at his other fights, he
still has that power in his hands, and especially with
Michael Chandler. He you know, before he got kaoed, he
rocked Michael Chandler ugably almost finished him. So this is
a fight where there's always four or five fights that
get part laid with the heavy favorites. We're gonna see
Ian Gary Rock Maanoff, We're gonna see Patty Pimblet, and
there's always that one guy that ruinzos parlays Dave, and
(10:22):
I think it's gonna be Patty Pimblet this weekend.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
Plus seven seventy five.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
If you think El Kakui could get a knockout of
Patty the battye one more fight to get to you.
In the main card, Vincente Luke back in there against
Ian Gary. There's been a lot of talk on the
internet about Ian Gary things going on outside of the octagon.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Will it affect his charge here?
Speaker 1 (10:43):
Just at twenty six years young in the Weltswhite division,
he feels like he's ascending.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
But I wonder if Luke. I mean, look at.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
How big a dog Luk is here at plus two
seventy five. Is this a live dog scenario?
Speaker 3 (10:54):
I don't think so.
Speaker 4 (10:55):
I think at this price tag, it's more of a
pass for me, to be honest with you, when you
look at what Gary has done. Undefeated hasn't really been
in trouble inside the UFC. Had one little knockdown, but
otherwise it's been in control of almost every single fight.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
And then Luca is kind of on his way out.
Speaker 4 (11:10):
I mean, we saw in the rda fight he won,
but it wasn't the vintage Lukae that we've seen in
the past. I think this is an Ian Gary decision
written all over it. He might be able to take
him out late as well.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
All right, let's see if he can get it done
and again if you think it's going to be by
decision yet plus money right now on Ian Gary instead
of laying that big price tag, say it always great
to have.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
You in studio, my friend. Enjoy the fight Saturday night
and enjoy Vegas.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Thanks brother there he is everybody.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Jay who's saying give a follow on x as I
Do at Zaida Underscore, who's saying.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
We're going to Arizona next.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
To catch up with the one and Only loof fitted Carol,
Come on back.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
It's first strike right here on Lisa.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
And of course you need to become a Vson Pro subscriber.
If you have not, of course you get access to
our pro tools, pro tips, picks at a Glance and
pro tips also, so a lot of pros there, tools,
picks tips. It is an introductory offer at nine ninety nine.
Visit vison dot com.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
Slash subscribe and sign up today.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Always a pleasure to go out to Arizona as we
catch up with the one and Only Loofinnikaro. He is
the host of the About Business podcast. You can follow
him on x as I Do at gamb lou Lo.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Great to have you on here. It is such a
deep card. It's arguably the best card.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Of twenty twenty three. They don't do this by happenstance.
They do it on purpose here to kind of ring
out the old with a spectacular card. I want to
get to the sneak teep, tell the people about it,
how they access it, and what you have this week.
Speaker 6 (13:02):
Well, thanks for having me on, Dave. Besides the Bout
Business podcast that's final releases on Friday. Each Monday, we
preview the card by looking at the lines where they
opened and where they've moved since the openers. And that's
the sneak Teep. It's available each Monday wherever podcasts are
(13:24):
and we're just scratching the surface early in the week
trying to make observations. A couple of which that we
made on the sneak teep yesterday I'll bring up in
one or two of the fights that we discussed today.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Hopefully absolutely love it.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
And again the early bird gets the worm because these
numbers have been on the move.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
We'll get to the main.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
Card here, but a couple of fights that you have
on the undercard. Again, such a deep card here that
I think you've already found some value here to get
Ullin Beckoff against Cody Durton here and I'm seeing uWin
Beckoff right now minus Nars seventy. The comeback on Durden
is plus us a dollar forty two here on the
early prelims. And that's how deep this fight card is,
(14:05):
that this fight is on the early prelims.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
What do you have here? What's the look ahead on
this one?
Speaker 6 (14:12):
The look ahead actually was one twenty eight. Lon Beckov
opened it, and I actually understanding that he's been a
little inactive, and Durden's one four straight after a real
slow start to the UFC. I think that that price
was reflective of a fair handicap. Now the money going
(14:34):
to Ulan Beckov I think I disagree with as well.
We know that the most profitable segment of betting MMAA
is that underdog that opens between one hundred and two
hundred and grows, meaning they see that one fifty or
in this case, the one twenty eight favorite, think that
(14:54):
he should be favored more. They pile on and in
essence offer more advance age or value to the other fighter.
I think that's the case with Durden here. The key
to this fight will be Durden's wrestling and his ability
to go fifteen full. I think this fight's close. It
goes to the third and that's where I think Durden
(15:15):
will have some advantage.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Yeah, we've seen it before with Durden.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Right, if this fight gets dirty and he gets it
down to the ground, it gets control time there and
does not gas.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
He's got a good chance to win this one on
the card. So plus a dollar forty two, you're getting
really good value there.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
Another fight that I'm actually very intrigued by, Aaron Lepski,
the Queen of Violence kind of resurrecting her UFC career,
would have bit here against Casey O'Neil. I saw Casey
tweeting out she cannot wait to get after it against
the Queen of violence in this one.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Are you finding an edge right now?
Speaker 1 (15:45):
In the numbers here, Casey O'Neil almost a two dollar
betting favorite.
Speaker 6 (15:49):
Yeah, this is one I've bumbled all over myself with.
About Business podcast has tried to use Casey O'Neill at
Openers when which was one sixty six, and I tried
again last week at two ten minus two ten and
I fanned both times. So finally this week I decided
(16:10):
in the sneak teep, we're definitely going to use her.
I got her at a little bit better price. I
used her in a parlay. But the handicap here is
Lipsky clearly an improving fighter, especially since she bellied up
with Nunez and went to her training camp. Her strikings
really improved. O'Neill came back off a knee I think,
(16:33):
relatively quickly to fight a capable Jen Maya and got
beat in a tough fight. I think it was too
quick on the bounce. I love her on the bounce
here off a loss in this fight, and while Lipsky
is talented, this fight's shaded over two and a half
like three hundred. I looked for Casey O'Neil to win
(16:56):
a dominant decision or perhaps even finished Ski late in
this fight.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
O'Neil right now via decision is plus a dollar twenty
five if you think she can get the fight done
inside the distance.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
There it's two.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
Dollars, so you can get some solid plus money there
on a two dollar betting favorite.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
I'm picking up certainly what you're putting down there.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
I do want to get to the main event because
I feel like and this is why.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
I love this show, among other reasons.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
But you're going to get varying opinions sometimes in some
of the biggest fights, and this is obviously for the
wel to White Championship of the World. It feels like
Rocky Edwards is now starting to it's starting to balloon
up a little bit. It's now up to a dollar
sixty six here Colby Covington and the comeback now it's
plus a dollar forty.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
You're not getting those prices even a week ago.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
Now, why do you think the money is coming in
on Rocky and do you think it's money being well spent?
Speaker 6 (17:49):
Well, that's really a great question. I'll disclose that at
openers nine months ago, this was minus one ten each
side and released Colby Covington. So I sit currently Colby
Covington minus one ten and you can currently get plus
one forty. Do I still like him at minus one ten? Yes,
(18:11):
so I must love him at one forty. Look, I
don't know why the money's on Leon. I clearly read
this line moving the wrong way. I think Leon has
a lot to answer. He's yes, he's beaten the arguably
the welterweight goat in Uzman two straight times, but this
(18:31):
was an usman that wasn't a wrestling usman. His legs
were gone, his knees were shot, and in the second fight,
I believe he was compromised. I'll give Rocky the first fight.
I had him a stroke of lightning, catching lightning in
a bottle. I'll take it. But as I handicap this fight,
(18:51):
I just believe that if Covington can get over the size,
Rocky's the bigger man, the longer man, he's surely the
more capable man on the feet. So Covington's plan is clear,
and it's no surprise. He's gonna have to be a
wet blanket, press him against the fence, and find a
way to get him down. I look for Colby Covington
(19:13):
to be losing this fight for three and a half
rounds and then in the championship rounds. I think that's
when this fight turns. And it's the number one weapon
that all wrestlers possess, and that's cardial.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
Well, and that's the thing. I'm surprised. I full disclosure here.
I gobbled up some tickets at Kobe A plus ADAR
twenty not thinking this line move would go where it
has gone. So I'm surprised, like you, are here. What's
interesting to me is you think he might be in
trouble early in this fight. Will this be a live
wagering spot for you? If this number ballounds upsay to
wee On at minus four or five dollars. If he
(19:49):
is able to quote unquote win those early rounds.
Speaker 6 (19:53):
That's a really good question. It has to It depends
how the takedowns look. If Lienne's two big, too strong,
too fresh, and Colby's trying to take down a Sequoia Redwood,
then that'll affect me negatively. However, if I see Leon
beginning to tire like he did in the first fight
against Dusman, if there's duress and listen, Covington is a
(20:16):
lot of things. He's a pampus rear end, but he's
also a college graduate and he's highly intelligent. Yes, and
his fight IQ is off the chart. He knows he
has to take Leon deep, and I'm looking for him
to do just that.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Yeah. Again, go back to in the town.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
Would he fight with Kolbe He's he's not going to
mess around on the feet. I can't see that scenario.
He's got a clinch fight. He's got to try to
take this fight down to the ground. I'm with you,
certainly on the pathways to victory there coming of that
very quickly. A Dessandre Panosia is going to defend against
Brandon Royval. This is a rematch here. Money's coming on
Platosia on the champions now up to a dollar eighty five.
(20:53):
I look at roy Val as that wild man in
the octagon, Pantosia more kind of steady as she goes.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
Here's style of fight. Do you think is going to
play out here in the comin event?
Speaker 6 (21:03):
That's a great question. I look for pantot excuse me,
I look for Roybal to be less wild man of
the pompous and more mature, more refined, and more confident.
When he thought Pantosia to the split decision, by the way,
two and a half three years ago, he was not
(21:26):
the mature fighter he is today. Pantosia is a champion today,
but let's not forget the unbelievable emotional roller coaster that
Pantosia has been on since he won that title. I'll
add something here to this. In this triumvirent, in this
weight division, I think that I see Moreno being able
(21:50):
to best Pantosia excuse me, I see Marino being able
to best Roybal. I think Royval can best Pantosia, and
yet I think Pantosia can best Moreno, I think there's
a trium bleeve there that's incestuous. And so I've answered
your question by saying I think roy Val is live.
(22:13):
I'm gonna be quiet and just let this price go
up as high as it'll go, and then I'm going
to give him a taste because I think he's ready.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Oh, very smart man, Loof and a Carol. Yeah, I'm
with you on that too. I look at it like,
just wait. If you're on the roy Vaal side, the
money should keep coming in. On Pantosia, you'll get the
best of the number.
Speaker 7 (22:30):
Lil.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
Last time we speak in twenty twenty three, Happy howadays,
Merry Christmas.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Can't wait to keep this going. In twenty twenty four,
Thank you, my friend.
Speaker 6 (22:37):
Thanks for having me.
Speaker 7 (22:38):
Good luck everyone there.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
He is everybody best in the biz.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
Loof and a Cairo follow him on x at gam
Wu when we come back, going to Washington, DC to
catch up with Riku.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
Next here I first.
Speaker 5 (22:48):
Right, college Bowl season is upon us and Vson as
(23:12):
an early Christmas present for you.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
I'm not a Vison PRIs subscriber yet, Well, no problem.
We're giving away this year's College Bowl Betting Guide to everybody.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
We've got spreads, totals.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
Expert picks from the Golwicks, Steve McKinnon, Brent Musburger for
every single bowl game. Put them on in this bowl
season and get a free copy of our Vson College
Football Betting Guide absolutely free. Visit Vison dot com Slash
Bowl Guide and get your free copy today. For the record,
when Brett Musburger is giving out free picks, you need
(23:41):
to get the bull Betting Guide.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Just gonna leave it there.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
Let's go out to Washington, DC to catch up with
our guy or Reidkoon. You can follow read on X
as I do at Fight Nomics. He is the author
of a book of the same name. Read great to
have you back on, my friend. As we get closer
and closer to the last card of the year, what
do you do when the UFC takes off? Do you
just enjoy the holiday season? Gear up for January twenty
twenty four?
Speaker 8 (24:06):
I definitely get a little antie after a few weeks
of no fights, because I have a nice routine you know,
each week from the numbers, write some articles, look forward
to seeing where the lines go.
Speaker 7 (24:16):
Doing a show with you. This is part of my
weekly habit, so I will definitely get anti. There'll probably
be a lot of stress cooking.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
I'm sure it will be.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
But I can't wait to follow on X to see
what you got cooking for this one because UFC two
ninety six, I don't even know, it's debatable. Feels like
the best car top to bottom by far. And I
mentioned something off the top that when you have the
Rude Boy against the King of Kung Fu to start
off the night the proceedings, if you will, you know
it's going to be an incredible night of action. And
I think you've got some data points on that fight.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
In particular.
Speaker 1 (24:46):
What are you seeing from Randy Brown here against Muslim Salkov?
Speaker 8 (24:50):
Yeah, First of all, an eight inch reach differential. This
is probably one of the biggest differentials I've seen in
recent history. I think I'd have to go back to
like Stefan Strube versus.
Speaker 7 (25:02):
Patrick.
Speaker 8 (25:03):
He thought someone there was like a foot height differential,
absolutely crazy.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
So say I believe, I believe way back in the day.
Speaker 8 (25:13):
I have to come back to it, but in this
case an eight is reached. Differential is extremely unusual. And
when I look at what makes someone effective defensively, it's
avoiding those head strikes and being able to create space
and not get taken down. John Jones is a great
example of this because he is one of the rangiest
guys in his division. He doesn't get hit very much
because he controls that range. Randy Brown uses his range
(25:37):
very effectively, and he's facing a guy who actually is
somewhat hesitant as a striker.
Speaker 7 (25:43):
He allows people to outstrike him.
Speaker 8 (25:45):
And you combine those two things together, I think Randy
Brown is going to be in complete control of the position.
Speaker 7 (25:51):
Also, layer in.
Speaker 8 (25:51):
He's got pretty good takedown defense and a submission game.
Speaker 7 (25:55):
So this is actually a kind of lopsided.
Speaker 8 (25:58):
I mean, I do feel strongly Randy Brown is in
control here, and his.
Speaker 7 (26:02):
Price will be somewhat steep. I'm wily delayed juice though
there It.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
Is right now two seventy if you like the rude
boy here, and that price tag might go up.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
Set a read's point.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
If you do like the favorite side, you might want
to get on that one sooner rather than later. You know,
we saw last week Tim Elliott was a short replacement
to get in there against Summer Jerry, and you look
absolutely spectacular. You've got another fight on this card where
I think the data is leaning towards a short replacement
that would be thug Nasty and Bryce Mitchell, who comes
in against Josh emmittt now as over a two dollars
(26:33):
betting favorite. Again, these are your uber tail of the
tapes which are absolutely spectacular. Are the data points backing
up Bryce as a big favorite?
Speaker 7 (26:42):
Here they are and you've already alluded to it.
Speaker 8 (26:45):
We do have another great grappler who's coming in, and
it almost feels like those grapplers can come in and
do their thing a little bit easier than pure striker,
who might need to watch a lot more tape, might
need to understand what combinations, what setups he's going to use.
Bryce Mitche is going to wet blanket you. He's going
to have smooth transitions even after he's on the ground
going back and forth. And Josh Emmett, he's coming off
(27:08):
a very lopsided beating from the summer. He took a
lot of damage in that he's now going to be
you know, he's pushing thirty nine. He does have the
big right hand. He swings big, he misses big, but
when he lands, you know, he does pretty well. I
think recently we haven't seen a lot of that. And
Bryce Mitchell, as long as he does not get caught early,
(27:28):
I think he's going to take this down.
Speaker 7 (27:29):
Takedown defense for Josh Emmett thirty eight percent.
Speaker 8 (27:32):
That's average, not even average, it's a little below average. Also,
control time not favorable. So yeah, this is really stacked
to favor the grappler and that's why he's another guy
like Brown that I'm probably going to be thrown into
a lot of parlays.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
I also, when you mentioned obviously you can just see
it happening right at it with a big right hand,
missus thug Nasty's shoots a double and gets his fight.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
Down to the ground.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Do you see finishing potential in the data points there
or is it more of a control because we know,
like maybe a twister could be a play for Bryce
Mitchell when he gets down to the ground, he does
book to finish, not just control.
Speaker 8 (28:05):
Correct, he actually does have a pretty high submission attempt rate.
Speaker 7 (28:12):
Emmett.
Speaker 8 (28:12):
We haven't really seen him lose a lot by submission
but he did fairly recently actually against Cio Rodriguez, so
he's not you know, undefeatable.
Speaker 7 (28:20):
On the ground. So yeah, I do see finishing potential,
just because I think.
Speaker 8 (28:24):
Mitchell is going to have a lot of opportunities if
he's spending over ten minutes in control in a three
round fight, he's gonna have opportunities from top, from you know,
RNCs and Emmett. Also you're hedging against EMMITTT maybe landing
something huge if you're playing the under.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
Yeah, it feels like it. So again, win by finish.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
You can get plus money on Bryce Mitchell there if
you think you can get it done inside of the distance.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
If it's going to go the distance, you're going to
plus a dollar.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
Twenty five right now on Thug Nasty to win if
it hits the judges scorecards.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
I get a little bit sad read.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
Sometimes when I look at your numbers and because your
numbers don't and that's why you take the emotion out
of it for somebody like me, when I look at
shaft rockmanoff and look, rock monov Is is just a
beast that nobody wants to fight.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
So I really applaud.
Speaker 1 (29:11):
Stephen WonderBoy Thompson when he says, fine, I'll fight the
undefeated monster right there.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
I mean, I know that wonder Boy believes that this
is the type of victory.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
If he was able to get it, they would put
him right back in title contention.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
But I look at all the check.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
Marks on your uber tail of the tape, and it
tells me this might not be wonder boys night. What
are you seeing here from the data points? Okay, and
I think we're gonna treat get back to read Koon
if we could. But again, these are read Koon's uber
tail of the tapes, the numbers that you see, and
right now, all of those data points are leaning towards
(29:48):
Shafcot rockmanoff. And again, when you've got a six over
a six hour betting favorite, you can understand why so
read even though all the data points are going towards
the younger fighter here by eleven years. Is he overvalued
or the data points backing up that he should be
this big a favorite?
Speaker 8 (30:07):
They're backing it up. It pains me to say that
I used to work with Thompson. I used to do
his scouting reports way back in the day. But yeah,
you just call that one of the biggest data points
on here, which is eleven year age differential.
Speaker 7 (30:18):
That is extremely unusual in this game. And we've already
talked about how important age is.
Speaker 8 (30:24):
So and Thompson is a striker Offensively, he's not losing
anything with age. It's defensively where that's a factor. But
in this fight it's also the stylistic mismatch. We do
have an oppressive grappler in shot Cut, and he's pretty
competent with his hands as well, very accurate fifty seven
percent striking, and he actually has the longer reach, So
(30:45):
that says to me he's going to be able to
hold his own. You hope that Thompson isn't getting chiney
at this point, but still he's asking a lot to
be able to win a three round fight purely on
his feet against someone who's willing to change levels like this.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
I want to get to some of the data that
shows up.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
Maybe we've got some live dog scenarios at play here,
because you know me, I'm always looking for good value
and one of those fights that I look at is
No Love against Boom Right. You got Brian Keller in
here as an underdog against Cody Garbrandt. Maybe the best
days of both guys are behind him. But I see
potentially a slugfest here. What are the data points showing you?
Speaker 7 (31:25):
Yeah, these guys definitely like the stand in trade.
Speaker 8 (31:28):
Right with Cody Garbrandt, he is the heavier hitter, but
I don't know how much of that relies on his
older data.
Speaker 7 (31:36):
Than his more recent data.
Speaker 8 (31:38):
And if we do take a more narrow window of
what we count as relevant, Garbrant's maybe his best days
or behind him. He has also taken a lot of knockdowns,
so he scores them, he also eats them. And Boom
keller Her, you know, that's what his nickname is. He
may not have the more impressive cumulative metrics, but he
does switch stance. He is, you know, he is at
(32:00):
least not at a reach disadvantage. He's a slight reach advantage,
and he's accurate enough. And both guys are hesitant, but
they're swinging for the fences. And so if you're gonna
give me plus money on one side, I might go
with keller Her for the upset, just because I don't
trust Garbrand's chin at this point.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Plus four seventy five two for Boom to get him
out of there with a KOTK or DQ. I kind
of look at that too and think, if that dog
is barking, that might not be a bad price point either.
Let's speak of another dog here, Lonzo Menifield against Dustin Jacobe. Again,
this card is just so stacked. Menifield over a two
dollars betting underdog. Did that surprise the numbers that you saw.
Speaker 8 (32:37):
Yeah, just because of light heavyweight, you know you have
guys with so much finishing potential, they're very dangerous. Manyfield
not only has the advantage on the power, they're equal
in range, they're equal in roughly age and size. But
Manyfield is much more accurate. He has slightly better defense,
and he has more power. So if these guys are
going to trade leather at light heavyweight, first of all,
(33:00):
that's a great evening metric. It should the line shouldn't
get out of control in either direction. But I do
like Minifield here. I think he has a chance.
Speaker 1 (33:08):
Very quickly comin event and the main event I got
about thirty seconds. But it does feel like the data
points leaning towards the dogs here are being live too.
Speaker 7 (33:16):
You got two live dogs. These are both very close matchups.
Speaker 8 (33:19):
I don't see the line diverging much from where it
is right now, and they're both pretty close to me.
Speaker 7 (33:24):
They both feel like coin flips.
Speaker 8 (33:25):
We've got Covington with the pressure, not the finesse, but
definitely the stifling pressure, and I think that could win rounds.
And then you've got roy Val with the greater finishing
potential against someone who's maybe a little bit more technical,
and so I like the finishing potential in that one.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Absolutely spectacler. I can't wait to keep doing this in
twenty twenty four.
Speaker 8 (33:43):
There he is.
Speaker 2 (33:43):
Everybody read kuon going to Chicago. Next to here on first.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
Right, we roll on this edition of First Strike Dave
(34:16):
Ross here at Circus Sports Book and fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada.
We go to the second city to catch up with
our guy Jordan Sure which you can follow him on
Exit What on ESPN, the host of the Unnamed MMA podcast.
Before we get into this electric card Here at UFC
two ninety six, Jordan Shurewood GM of the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
What are you gonna do with Justin Fields? Do you
keep him? Or do you pick a quarterback with the
number one?
Speaker 6 (34:39):
Overall?
Speaker 9 (34:40):
I think you have to tick a quarterback. Oh with
the number one pick. Oh my, I think yeah, I
think Everlus is gone. Oh, Dustin Fields is gone. You're
starting fresh with an offensive minded quarterback. You're resetting your
quarterback clock, and you're taking maybe it's maybe it's not
Caleb Williams number one. Maybe you're you're packaging something to
(35:01):
move to two or three and grabbing offensive lineman Marvin
Harrison Junior if he does opt to go to the draft,
and then you fall in love with someone else later
on in the draft. But I think Justin Fields is
playing his final four games in a Chicago Bears uniform,
and ever flu Is is coaching his final four games as
the head coach of the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
I think this guy has a pulse in the city
of Chicago, everybody. That's why you get to give him
a listen there and give him a follow on X.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
All right, let's get to the main event here UC
two ninety six, and it is a fascinating I think
stances for everybody out there when you look at Leon
Rocky Edwards against Kolbe Chaos Covington here because stylistically we
know why Leon Edwards is the favorite, because they believe
he's the bigger man on the Edwards side, and that
if he can keep the fight standing, he should be
(35:46):
able to walk through Kobe Covington, who we have not
seen now in.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
A couple of years.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
But there's that pesky thing of cardio and wrestling. What
say you in the main event and who will be
the welterweight champion come Saturday night.
Speaker 9 (36:00):
It's been a tough week so far for me because
I'm backing Kolby Covington and that's rubbing a lot of
people the wrong way. And look, I like money, so
my money's going to be invested in Kolbe Covington. And
the reason I'm going to be investing in Kolbe Covington
is because we know what Leon Edwards are. The type
of fighter he is. He does struggle with guys that
get in his face. He prefers to move backwards as
(36:24):
opposed to forwards. He has struggled with wrestlers at albeit
the one wrestler he struggled with was Kamara Uzman, But
Kolbe Covington kind of brings a little bit of a
different type of game plan from a wrestling standpoint, doesn't
have the power that Uzman possesses. I think has probably
the better takedowns and aggression. So sure not dismissing that
(36:44):
Leon Edwards was able to get over that hurdle and
had one of the most miraculous comebacks we've ever seen
in mixed martial arts and then was able to back
it up. But I could argue that Kamara Usman was
not the same fighter in fight number two or fight
number three, if you will, against Leon Edwards and Kelvin Coumming.
It's not going to mess around with that. He's gonna
get in the face of Leon Edwards and look Leon
Edwards outside of the matchup with Kamara Uzman never prepared
(37:07):
for a wrestler. Look at the laundry list of fighters
that he went through. He didn't get a chance with
Buel Mohammed because there was an ipoke a couple of
seconds into that fight, and outside of that, he hasn't
fought any wrestlers. So yes, he's training for it, he's
preparing for it, but at plus money where it is
right now today on a Tuesday, I like the strategy
of a guy in Kobe Comington that could steal rounds,
(37:27):
get some points, get this fight to the ground. When
he wants and steal a championship. And look, we've seen
crazier things. Sean O'Malley's the champ. Sean Strigg wins the champ.
Why not another guy in that elk if Kobe Covington
getting the stratch.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
Yeah, it's bizarre because I'm getting a lot of that too.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
Why are you back in Kobe Covington, I'm like, because
Leon Rocky Edwards is a backfoot fighter.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
He likes to fight backwards. That is a terrible going
back if you.
Speaker 1 (37:52):
Do that against a guy with Kobe Covington, because he's
going to be able to get you into the clinch
and then shoot those double legs. I'm right there with
you to you now, will the price tag keep coming up?
Because if it does and you're on the Kobe side,
you just wait and get the better of the number.
Speaker 4 (38:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (38:06):
No, I think it's gonna hang around probably where it is,
or it'll it'll fall back in line of a pick them.
I think the people are gonna wisen up realize stylistically,
this is a matchup that does favor Kolbe Covington. Leon
Edwards would not be in this position if you didn't
lant a headkick in the fifth round and the final
minute of that for a second fight against Kamara Uzman.
(38:26):
So I think you've got to grab Kobe Covington now
because I think the value will decrease on him come
fight night.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Let's get to the comin event here out of Sandre
Pantosia against Brandon roy Vall. This is a rematch in
Pantosia now the champion after dispatching Brandon Moreno. And you
know again, I kind of look at it like Pantosia,
as great a run as he's been on, kind of
steady wins the race sometimes with Pantosia, where roy Vohl's
(38:55):
been that wild guy in the octagon.
Speaker 2 (38:57):
Is the dog live to you? And what style of
fight do you.
Speaker 9 (38:59):
Think I'll understand the argument why Brandon royvel would be
a live dog. I think he's not the same fighter
that that that got choked out by Pantoja when they
thought he's on a three fight win streak. Looked really
good in his victory over Nikolai the last time out,
and Pantosia, you know, look is a crazy man at
times as well. He gets in the firefights and he
(39:20):
goes for broke. I just think he's a more cerebral
type of fighter compared to Brandon Royvell, and so I
just think that he's just going to have the advantage everywhere.
He's going to be prepared for the scrambles that Royvel
comes in with. He's going to be prepared for the
crazy submissions that Royval and really the in your face,
you know, balls to the wall kind of out of
(39:41):
the gates fight that that Rouvel brings. So that's why
I think Pantoja certainly has decided I'd like maybe it
to come down a little bit because the Pantoja has
been in some wars, obviously, the fights with moreno and
at some point the wheels are going to come off,
so I'm more comfortable. And actually just the total and
and and the under you know, coming in into at
two and a half, I think is a safer play.
(40:02):
But I think Pantoja does get his hand raised once again,
and I would not be surprised he's he's he's hold
for hold, punch for punch, submission for submission, and get
gets roy Val out of there at some point before
we go to the judges scorecard.
Speaker 1 (40:16):
The under right now, which is amazing for a five
round championship fight is set right there smack dab in
the middle at two and a half, so the under
it is juiced that way to minusadar forty. So we're
expecting finishing potential. So you mentioned Pantoja, you kind of
lean towards that side. Don't like the number so much.
Is that win by finish at Minasadar twenty five something
(40:38):
you might be interested in?
Speaker 9 (40:40):
Yeah, I think so, because again I think Pantoja is
just better. Everywhere is going to be comfortable. This fight
goes to the ground in those crazy scrambles, and I
could see Roy Belt trying to attempt something, gives up
his neck, gives up an arm, and Pantosia, you know,
locks something in. Pantojia wants to make a statement. He's
happy that he's not standing across the cage from Vandon Marie.
I know, you know Moreno might be standing on the cage,
(41:02):
doesn't he the backup, so we could eventually see him
come flight night. But I think I think pantos just
solidifies himself as the rightful Flyway champion of the world
and gets Roy Bell out of there before we go
to the judges scorecard.
Speaker 2 (41:14):
All right, let me do my best.
Speaker 1 (41:15):
Ron Burgundy here because he will read anything that they
put in prompter and knee thing.
Speaker 2 (41:20):
It says here that you have rochmanoff here via violence.
Speaker 1 (41:27):
This is the wonder Boy, this is Stephen Thompson is
somebody's favorite mm A practitioner against Shapcott.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
Is he being fed to the wolves here?
Speaker 3 (41:35):
Yeah?
Speaker 9 (41:35):
And mister nice guy too. And look, look it is
surprising because wonder Boy look great the last time we
saw him in December, you know, stopping Kevin Holland. But
I believe Shoop Rokmanov is going to be the future
champion of the welterweight division, maybe by the end of
twenty twenty four. And I think he starts to let
people understand how good he is by the way that
(41:59):
he's able to handle Steven WonderBoy Thompson. I would have
loved the Steve WonderBoy, you know, versus Prahea, but that
fight wasn't able to take place. He misses weight. Rockmandov
is great everywhere. He can work takedowns, which is obviously
I think the game plan he's gonna look to institute.
He's not gonna want to mess around with a guy
as crafty as anyone we've ever seen on the feet,
(42:22):
that's not where Rochmanov is going to have the advantage.
So I think once again, the takedowns are going to
come in and control and either Thompson gives up his
back and we get a rare naked choke submission, a guillotine,
or rock moant Of I think is gonna get ground
and pound win. I'm gonna be really specific there. Rockmanov
is gonna is gonna take it, take advantage again. He's
a finishing machine, and we see him solidify himself maybe
(42:46):
as the number one contender at one seventy after the
fallout of Edwards and Covington.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Steven wonder Boy Thompson's he says, I'm gonna be champions still,
mark my words. He's got to go through Rockmanov. Good
luck to wonder Boy on that one very quickly. On
the on the prelims here togear A Lulum Beckoff is
a Dodlar seventy favorite against Cody Durden. We know what
Cody wants to do. He wants to wrestle. Do you
have a live dog scenario here?
Speaker 9 (43:10):
I do, because look, I think we know how good
Cody Durden is. I think we know that he could
go hard for the three.
Speaker 7 (43:16):
Rounds Owen Beckoff.
Speaker 9 (43:17):
There's questions about his cardio being able to stand for
those fifteen minutes, and quite frankly, we saw it play
out against a guy that's maybe not going to be
as scrambling as much as Tim Elliott, but Tim Elliott
with the same game plan, the same style was successful
against Owen Beckoff. And I think Cody Durden knows that
he's definitely going to be one of the favorites. You know,
(43:39):
for an underdog to bark on Saturday Night, there's not
a lot of them. In my opinion, I think it's
going to be a heavy, chalky card. But I do
believe that Cody Durdan is a live dog in the
same kind of you know, you know conversation we're talking
about Cobe Covington in the main event only.
Speaker 2 (43:54):
Have about thirty seconds ago.
Speaker 1 (43:56):
Are you even slightly intrigued by the Patty pimblet Tony
Ferguson five.
Speaker 9 (44:01):
Just to see Patti Pevott if he could perform the
what the expectations are, I mean, he should roll in
this fight. Tony Ferguson is not the same fighter that's
once challenging for interim titles. He just doesn't look the
same being dominated. So Patty Pimblet, even though he's coming
off of injury a bit a little bit of a layoff,
should roll in this fight because he's a future star,
and then that's what the UFC is expecting.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
Really appreciate you.
Speaker 1 (44:23):
All year long, Jordan Sherwood, Merry Christmas to you, Thanks
for all the time you give us here at First Strike.
And one I also give a shout out to Rob
Moreno and Britain has to do a great chop putting
this show together, and even why Whyatt tom Check is
sitting back there today too.
Speaker 2 (44:37):
Thanks everybody here First Strike. We'll see you in twenty
twenty four.
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