February 14, 2024 • 44 mins
UFC 298 comes in with a STACKED card. It's all headlined by the potential P4P GOAT, Alexander Volkanovski, as he defends the Featherweight Title against undefeated Ilia Topuria!
Dave Ross is joined this week by Reed Kuhn, Lou Finocchiaro, Nick Dais, and Jordan Sherwood. All the fight analysis and betting breakdowns you need is all here on this weeks First Strike!
Make sure to check out VSiN.com/Pro for 24/7 sports betting content!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Hey, welcome to first Strike here on Visa.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
I'm youro Dave Ross for the next home We're gonna
break down UFC two ninety eight. We got a championship
bounce on the line, maybe arguably the greatest featherweight of
all time, Alexander Volkanovski puts that strap of the line
against Oya Tapoya as he gets his first title shot.
Here as we ring in twenty twenty four in Arnest
at UFC two ninety eight in Anaheim, California, we got
(00:40):
a great show as always.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Lufinnikara's gonna join us.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Nick Dais is gonna be here in studio in Jordan
Sherwood in Chicago. But for the first time ever, we
are taking the show overseas to jolly old London, England Town.
We are joined by our friend Ried Kuni. I'll read
as I do on X at Fight Nomics. He's the
(01:03):
author of the same name. Read you're in London talking
to UFC. What's going on over se over that big
pond of ours?
Speaker 3 (01:12):
Hey, you know people know about UFC over here.
Speaker 4 (01:15):
You've got Tom Aspinalla, you got Connor McGregor right next door.
There's still enough buzz that when I tell people that's
my favorite sport.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
They know what I'm talking about.
Speaker 4 (01:23):
So even though there's some soccer games, football games as
they refer to it, here, there's some Champions League going on.
So I'm ducking out at halftime and talking to you,
and then I'll head back over to the pub and
see who wins the games.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
I think we've made first Strike history here by going international,
truly global with this edition of it. Let's get right
to it. Obviously, it will be back here stayside. I
Anaheim for this made event to pour you up against Volkanovski. Obviously,
Alexander coming back to his weight class at one forty five,
and I mentioned off the top read some would consider
him the greatest featherweight of all time. What's interesting is
(01:56):
there's a lot of respect in the marketplace for Taporia
here as the younger challenger at twenty seven. Obviously vult
now at thirty five. I know those models like to
favor that young guy. What are the numbers showing you
here in this featherweight championship belt?
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Yeah, well you mentioned two things.
Speaker 4 (02:13):
One, he may be the greatest featherweight champion of all time.
The problem is that my data includes two performances at
lightweight that did not go his way, and that's a
lot of minutes. And when you think of just that
rolling window of the last five years, using all those
minutes at lightweight, it really muddies the waters with his signal.
And then you got to a Puria who, like many
other challengers that I've mentioned before, we don't have a
(02:35):
ton of sample size. Out of sixty two minutes of
fight time, twenty five of those came in his last
main event against Josh Emmett, and that was a lopsided
drubbing against a guy who just could not keep up
with him. And so if anything, his stats are actually inflated.
So we got deflated on one side, inflated on the other.
And so it's no surprise the numbers, the models are
coming out on the younger guy just.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
A little bit.
Speaker 4 (02:57):
And so it's hard for me to factor all that
in a situation where I intentionally do a dogg or
pass play, you know, maybe take a step of the
underdog if I see the price get to where I
want it, or I kind of bank on the fact
that this is a pretty even matchup and Volkanovski is
still much more proven at five rounds at featherweight. I
would lean his way if it weren't for the fact
(03:19):
that the models were telling me otherwise.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
So I may just end up with a prop on
and over. But we'll see where the price lands.
Speaker 5 (03:25):
You know.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
That's fascinating.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
By the way, we showed the ubertail of the tape,
these are your numbers that you created for these data points.
So it's absolutely fascinating the fact that your models do
not throw out the two failed attempts at lightweight, right,
because I know a lot of people this week are going,
all right, well, you can throw those out because walks
back to his weight class. The data points don't do that, right,
They're going to say, I know it's a different weight class,
(03:46):
but still those that's tread on the tire, so to speak,
because he comes back down to forty five.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Correct, It gets messy.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
There's just so much weight class switching these days, especially
in those middle ranks, the lightweight, featherweight, and walterweight. It
would just really complicate my day to day. So yes,
it could be done. We could delete out some of
those fights. I just don't do it normally, and we're
still doing okay in the long run. But this is
one of those situations, as you call it out, I say, yeah,
I'm probably gonna be a little.
Speaker 3 (04:13):
Bit more cautious about this main event.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
And you know that I like to make my money
elsewhere on the car, so I hope that it doesn't
come down to that.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Let's look elsewhere in the car then see if we
can find some better value. And I think that's a
great lesson that you're putting out with the numbers kind
of conflict with where your head would be at. Sometimes
it could be a pass. So maybe doggar pass scenario
here for you.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
In the main event.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
I love Robert Whitaker. I'm the tank for the guy.
Obviously didn't go well the last time out against DDP.
Now he's back in there against Paulo a Costa and
I look at this and I.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Go, should rob at thirty three? And I guess it's
you know, you look at Powlo. He's only thirty two,
he's inactive these days. But should Robert Whittaker?
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Are the data points saying he should be a minus
two twenty five betting favored here?
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Yeah, that's an interesting call. I mean, you call it
his age.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
He's only thirty three, but he is definitely a weathered
thirty three because he has.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Eight knockdown received throughout his career. That is a lot.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
That's an unusual number for someone who hasn't tipped over
the threshold of thirty five.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Costa, on the other hand, has been very inactive, and
even if you.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
Do credit that win against Luke Rockhold, which at high altitude,
clearly took an effect on Luke Crockhold, who was on
his way into retirement. Anyway, even crediting Costa for that performance,
he's two and two in five years. That's just not
a lot of action, so he's coming in with less experience.
He's been inactive. Whittaker is one of those guys who's
very technical. You know what you're going to get with
(05:32):
him in the stand up, and Costa is hesitant. He
is accurate and powerful, but he doesn't pull the trigger
very well, and that I think plays to the favor
of Whittaker, who is going to be a slightly rangier.
He's just a little bit more technical in his combinations.
He's able to land volume, and I think he's going
to keep the high pressure and in a three round fight,
I think he can do it long enough and avoid
(05:54):
some big bomb counter that's really costs only shot here.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
And to that point, you look at the total here
over too and a half. It is iced to the over,
which feels like a correlay to play that. If you
like rob it's probably going to be by decision with
the technical work getting in and out. Maybe if you're
on the power side, it would be by finish here
by KOTK or DQ that's plus three dollars.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Do you see finishing potential for the favorite here to
lower that price, Tagger?
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Do you think it would be by decision, which, by
the way is plus a dollar thirty.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
So neither guy has attempted a single submission in their
entire career to date, so let's just throw that out
the window. Yes, there is knockout potential on both sides.
I think Whitaker might be a little bit underrated in
that because his power rating isn't quite as good as
where it was when he was coming up in the
title run. That's because he's been against elite talent who
had good defense like Israel Atasanya. All those points striking
(06:44):
matches will deflate that number and costa something to call
out here, fifty seven percent head strike defense is by
far the worst on this card, and so he is
going to get pieced up. So I do see finishing
potential on both sides. Maybe we see a return to
Whitaker's old days where he lands those knockdowns. He's scored
ten of them in his UFC career. That's a pretty
(07:06):
healthy number. We just haven't seen it in a while.
So yes, I do think there's finishing potential if you're
getting a lot of plus money on under two point
five or inside the distance, I think there's value here,
especially at middleweight where half of all fights are going
to end inside the distance anyway.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Love where the numbers are showing you there and leading
you maybe to an underplay two and a half a
plus money. I want to get to machado Ian Gary
against Hands of Steel here and Jeff Neil fight we're
supposed to see in twenty twenty three. We're now finally
going to see it here in twenty twenty four in February,
and you look at Jeff.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
He's still a pretty big dog here plus do eighty five.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Gary polarizing outside of the octagon, some might say, but
inside of it, he's looked really good in his ascent
we got one of those age differences thirty three to
twenty six, where the numbers leading you here read Yeah.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
First of all, both these guys are huge for welterweight.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
I mean I think Jeff Neil usually had a big
reach advantage, and for the first time ever, Gary is
almost right there. I mean, just a bit below in
terms of wingspan, but also much much taller, so he
may be able to use that wingspan a little bit
more effectively than Neil.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
So, first of all, two.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
Big guys, neither one of them takes many takedown attempts,
so we should see a striking duel and Gary the
biggest difference here is that he outworks his opponents by
more than fifty percent, whereas Neil tends to be on
the receiving end. He waits for his opponents to lead
the dance, and he's looking for that act counter now
that has worked for him in the past seven knockdowns scored,
(08:31):
but not at a very high rate. Gary is just
going to be smothering him with pace, and that's why
I see a heavy line for the younger guy here.
I think this is a question of volume. I don't
think Neil can deal with that kind of volume when
he's not going to a plan B and going for
a takedown.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
You know, I'm kind of surprised. I look at the
total of two and a half. It's juiced evenly MINUSNAR fifteen.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
Either way.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
It feels like, look, we know the power that Neil has,
we know the volume that Gary has.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Do you see finishing potential here?
Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (09:03):
Gary's knockdown rate is impressive and it's way above average.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
And Neil is getting on.
Speaker 4 (09:08):
He does have the worst defense of the two, and
so you know, if anybody is getting dropped, it's probably
going to be Neil. Now he's no slats with his
hands either, So again we have a striking duel between
two guys who are pretty good at scoring knockdowns, and
they're not exactly pristine on their own side. They have
taken a little bit of damage. So yes, I again
(09:29):
I do see more than average finishing potential. It's at
welterweight and yeah, eleven knockdowns total, that's enough to expect
maybe someone getting dropped.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
That's the way I look at it too.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Very quickly, with all due respect to UFC three hundred
will figure out what that made event is going to be.
These four fights here in the main card are as
attractive to me as a fight fan as you're going
to see Henry sut against Rob Delishpieley. I can't wait
for this fight, right, and I see that Henry Suhuto
triple C King of Cringe.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
All this thing almost a two dollar betting on dog
to the machine.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Here in Morob, he is thirty seven Henry, and he
always retires and comes back. Should he have stayed retired?
Is this a good matchup for Sudo or is Morob
just going to overwhelm him with volume?
Speaker 3 (10:14):
I don't know about how they got this particular matchup.
I don't know if that's what Suhudo asked for.
Speaker 4 (10:19):
He's a pretty wise guy in terms of picking and
choosing where his fights are, but coming in out at
thirty seven trying to take on arguably the next contender
with Mirob, I don't like this matchup for him. He
is going to be undersized, which is typical for Henry,
but once again undersized, and he's finally dealing with someone
(10:39):
who has as good wrestling as he does. Just statistically speaking,
they're very very similar. In fact, Mirab is actually more
eager and used in going for takedowns, and then everything
else is pretty even.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
You know, real close on the tail of the tape.
Speaker 4 (10:54):
Once again, we have a high volume striker in Mirob,
and we have a low volume power guy in sehudo
and at bantamweight, unlike those other weight classes we just
talked about. I'm not banking on one shot changing the
outcome of this fight. I think it's going to be
the pace of Mirob on the feet that wins the
rounds and then the wrestling match.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Who knows, but age does factor in here. I gotta
go with.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Morob twenty seconds ago. What are you eating over there
in England? How's their cuisine?
Speaker 4 (11:24):
I think I think there's gonna be some like lamp
sausage and pints for the second half of the football games.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
Get back in the side of the pond, Redcode, safe travels,
my friend.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Great having you from England.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
When we come, I'm going to Arizona not that far next,
as we check in with Loop and Acaro. As we
continue this edition of First Strike here on these in
these sports betting network before you make your next wager,
(12:11):
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Speaker 1 (12:30):
From around the world, like where Reid Coon just was.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
So betting splits are another way THESA is here to
make you a smarter, better year round. Check out today's
betting splits for every game at decent dot com.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
Slash splits back here.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
I am Dave Ross here at Circus Sports Book in
fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada. We just had to read Coon
from Across the Great Pond in England.
Speaker 6 (12:50):
Now we don't go.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
That far just to hop skipping a jump up to Arizona.
That catch up with our guy Loof and to Carroll.
You can follow him on Ex's I Do at Gamblou.
He's the host of the out business podcast Lou We Excel.
Here in Las Vegas. The Super Bowl is over now, man,
You look at this card here UFC two ninety eight,
it's pretty sexy top to bottom. With all due respect
(13:13):
to the UFC three hundred and the Super Bowl. Are
you kind of glad that we can now really focus
in on Mma.
Speaker 7 (13:20):
Yes, Dave, thanks for having me on, love to share
insight here. Super Bowl's over. I feel the same way
after Saint Patrick's Day in New Year's get it out
of the way. Yeah, So concentration on UFC and on
the horizon the passion that is the NHL Playoffs as
I'll start to really dig into that as well as
(13:43):
the passionate sport of UFC.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
Absolutely love it.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Lo looking to get to your sneak teet before we
get done with this conversation today. I want to start
right with the very first part of the day because
I know for a lot of people like us that
are really getting into the weeds and not just you know,
going to the comaine and the main event, which I
know that that's what a lot of the general public
looks at.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
Sometimes.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Man, you get off with that first fight of the
night and you get that w it can kind of
set your sales for the rest of the event. Andrea
Lee against Morana Maverick is an intriguing fight here, and
we're seeing the numbers where mav is a solid favorite.
She comes in right now at minus a dollar ninety two.
Henria leave right now. The comeback there is plus a
dollar sixty. The total set over to and a half
(14:24):
really juice here minus three thirty, which means we're expecting
this to hit the cards. Sometimes when you play those
favorites and it hits the cards, you got to take
a deep breath before you get those results. How do
you see the first fight of the night playing out?
Speaker 7 (14:37):
It should be an interesting fight. These ladies know one
another from their time up in Denver. They've trained together
and in fact, they did mister Maynard's job for him
by contacting one another. Then after they agreed, they contacted
Maynard to fight. It's a great stylistic matchup, long, tall,
(14:58):
drink of water and striker primarily working on her wrestling,
and she has been in with I believe a higher
level of competition than has Maverick. Maverick's a little younger,
a little more grappling wrestling based, and I believe that
it's correct. Even though Maverick open one seventy, it's crept
(15:20):
up a little bit. I believe Maverick should be the
favorite here. I also believe it could be decisioned. But boy,
I like who Andrea Lee's been in with, and once
these props come out, Lee decision could be a very
strong number. And it's something that I may have to consider.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Yeah, because again, if Reno Maverick cod get her to
the ground and it did stay, you would think the
advantage there would be for Lee if it stays standing
and it potentially hits the cards and the numbers, indicating
that's exactly where Vegas at least expects us to go.
Speaker 7 (15:54):
In a large cage in La. Now we're not at
the Apex, So these two girls are going to be
like two flies in a barrel fight, and there's gonna
be plenty of room for lead a maneuver.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
At great point because again, the last couple of fight
cards been right here at ufc Apex, very tight quarters.
Here in Anaheim, it's gonna be you can really have
some room to move, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
Let's stick with the ladies.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Gets to a man alimos against some McKenzie dern and
durned the small dog in this one. Again, we would
expect if you're on the Mackenzie Dern side, you do
not want to see this fight stay standing. If you're
on the Amanilimo side, that's exactly where you want this
to stay. Mackenzie is six years the junior of Amanda here,
how do you see this one playing out?
Speaker 7 (16:36):
This is the fight that's had the most aggressive line
movement as lemoshow oping minus two seventy. So this line
got pounded, and it got pounded clearly by people that
believe Dern is in a good position to submit Lamosh.
I'm not one of those people by any way. Stretch
of the imagination listen, Lemosh was getting ready for Tatiana Suarez,
(17:02):
who's a big, tall, mean wrestling phenom, and that camp
was perfect because as Suarez falls out, Dern comes in
very short notice. And Dern, though she has great grappling,
it's BJJ. She doesn't really even know how to spell wrestling.
So I don't know how Dern, again in a large cage,
(17:24):
is going to be able to clasp onto Lemosh and
get her down in this fight. I just absolutely disagree
with the line movement and feel that Lemosh is the side,
and it's also the value.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
And again with this number coming down as dramatically as
it has down to a dollar thirty here today, Would
you keep waiting, Lou and just keep hoping that the
dern money comes in and then wait till Saturday and
hoping maybe you can get her minus a dollar fifteen
at that point.
Speaker 7 (17:53):
No, because it's already bounced. We took the Bout Business
podcast already released Lamosh at minus one t so at
that scene, it's low point, and now I think we're
starting to see buy back.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Fascinating.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
That's exactly who you're trying to wait for that dip,
and maybe the DIP's already come and going back the
other way.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Great information there.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Let's get to the main event because it is fascinating
when you look at Alexander Volkanowski, arguably the greatest one
hundred and forty five pounder we've ever seen.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
That's debatable. What's not debatable is went.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
Up to fifty five a couple times, didn't work out
his way back now to his quote unquote comfort zone.
You've heard the rhetoric clue we know about the numbers
for champions at thirty five, it's normally that demarcation line.
You don't want to be back in faves in title
bots against a guy who's twenty seven. Is it as
simple as that, or do we look at Vulcan say yeah,
(18:43):
he still is the best at forty five until somebody
else can knock him off that perch.
Speaker 7 (18:49):
In this humble handicapper's opinion, there's no question that Vulcan
is the goad of one forty five. He beat Max
Holloway three times, he beat Aldo and those are two
top names in the previous goats in the division. Volkanowski,
I think, is completely motivated by the huge yapper on
(19:12):
this challenger. It is Tapuria. His mouth out runs his ability.
In my humble opinion, yes, he's fought two decent opponents,
two good opponents in his last two, Bryce Mitchell and
Josh Emmett, But compared to what Vulcan whose Vulk has
been in with, I really I'm fascinated by the move
(19:37):
in this fight where Vulk opens one seventy five and
the return early on Tuporia one fifty five. Again about
business members are holding topori at one thirty five, But
that's before I saw him open his yapper and start
to talk about things that he should not be talking
(19:59):
about at this point in time where this fight is lined,
and I'm seeing a Vulk lower than one thirty five
at many locations, so shop around. I think Vulkan is
the value. However, it's not his age that bothers me
a bit. What bothers me with Volkanowski is that it's
just four months after a head kick knockout. If you
(20:22):
saw the interview with Volkanowski in January, he was very
emotional and it was a disturbing interview in my opinion.
It's also my opinion that four months isn't enough and
he could be somewhat affected still by that knockout four
months ago. If this fight were to get postponed, I
(20:46):
would clearly change all opinions to go to the Volkanowski side.
If it goes off on Saturday night, I think it's
possible Vulk could be rushing back a little bit too soon.
Speaker 1 (20:58):
Excellent insight.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
If you saw what lou is alluding to in the
post fight interview of his last fight, it was after
the Makachev loss was disturbing. Like the things that Bulk
talked about and why he needs to fight sooner, I'm
right there with you. You wonder about the time, not
enough time, possibly a lapsing from that last loss very
quickly got about ninety seconds comin event. Robert Whitaker is
(21:19):
one of my favorite fighters. I think he's a fan favorite.
Powell Costa is one of those guys that you know,
put down the red wine, he get back in shape
and you go, all right, this guy could be what
we always thought he would be. What do we make
of Powell now? As a solid dog at plus a
dollar eighty five?
Speaker 7 (21:34):
This is a balance fight, balanced so did Robert's last
fight was at an outlier. I think he laid an
egg against dupleus C and I do think it's an
outlier Costa we haven't seen since twenty twenty two, and
it was then against a guy washed as he could
be in Luke rock Hold. Which which way you think?
(21:55):
I mean, how much improvement do you think Costa has had?
And is Robert ready to come back after what many
believe is an outlier performance? So which Robert we gonna get?
Speaker 6 (22:04):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (22:05):
Great question.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
We'll have to find out on Saturday very quickly about
business podcasts and also the sneak teep.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
Tell the people what they get sneak teep.
Speaker 7 (22:12):
On Monday, you get opening line report like we shared
an about business podcast on Friday, Final Releases. Appreciate you
having me on, Dave, and good luck with everything at
the fights all of you listeners now, well.
Speaker 1 (22:24):
It's great to have you on.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
I see those pictures of Muhammad Ali behind you, and
I always go man if Eddie Futch just doesn't throw
in the towel Joe Frazier. But that's a conversation for
another day, my friend love having the conversations. Will we
come back, Nick day, This is going to join us
right here in studio as we continue this edition of
first Track here on these.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
If you haven't done so already, what.
Speaker 6 (23:12):
Are you waiting for?
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A good copy right there britten us, so check it
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Speaker 2 (23:30):
We have a real treat right now because Nick DAAs
has graced our presence inside our vs and studios here
at Circus Sportsbook. You can follow him on X as
I do at Nick DAAs ten. He is the host
of the Veterans Minimum podcast. My goodness, Nick, when I
look and see on social media the star power you've
had on the pop.
Speaker 6 (23:49):
Oh, you're two kind.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
I mean they're just rolling in to sit down with
a great Nick Das. How has it been, my.
Speaker 6 (23:53):
Friend, It's been great. It's been great.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Give me some highlights of some of the you can
you can humble break. Tell me about some of the
stars you got to.
Speaker 8 (23:59):
I mean Steve in a Smith, both Krackenberger, Warren Sharp,
you know, like the list goes on see it also,
most importantly the boy himself.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
Great to have you back on deck.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
Let's talk about this card here, because you know you,
Britta and I were just even talking during the break,
and we talk about the dangers all the time when
fights go to the cards, especially when you're on the
fathe I was going to just hold your breath, Yeah, just.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
Hold your breath because you you know, we're seeing fights.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
You go to the Apex, you watch these fights and
sometimes they get judged differently. Do you go into a
fight card before you make your waiters and guard This
fight I don't.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Think is going to hit the cards. Therefore I got
a better handicap on it.
Speaker 2 (24:38):
If I think there's going to be a finish just
picking up what I'm putting down, because sometimes I go, Man,
if I think this is going to hit the cards,
I really do have to hold my breath sometimes.
Speaker 8 (24:46):
Well, you're talking to someone that only bets finished props
and submissions and tkos, so.
Speaker 6 (24:50):
I never have to worry about that.
Speaker 8 (24:53):
When it does go to the decision, I'm usually screwed
out anyway. But to your point, I do agree, man.
I think my my biggest complaint is when it's so
different from what you and I have seen. Right, if
you and I have a twenty nine to twenty eight
either fighter, I'm cool with that, Dave, I can live
with that. What drives me crazy is when you have
(25:13):
one side thirty twenty seven and then I have it
thirty twenty seven. That I think is such a dramatic
difference where we need to have some evaluation both on
your and my end, and then when the judges have
it that wide and different, that's my biggest complaint about
MMA judging.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
You know, back in the day, when I'd have fight
parties in DC and I didn't care who you are,
a man, wim or a child. You came over to
the house late night to watch the fight. I gave
you a pen and paper and you were going to
score the fight. And I did this for these reasons, Yeah,
to see what are you seeing?
Speaker 6 (25:44):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (25:44):
And what are some of these judges seeing.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
I wonder what we're going to see in the main
event because right now it is juice to the over
three and a half rounds here Minu style thirty for
Volk against the Pooria in the title matchup at forty five.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
So again not saying it's going to hit.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
The cards, but do you think we're going to ge
finish here or do you think this is one of
those that could be a five round knockdown, dragout, big
cage here in Anaheim. So I assume that favors to
Pouria because he'd like to keep it standing with the hands.
How do you see a plan out?
Speaker 6 (26:12):
Well?
Speaker 8 (26:12):
I want to push back a little bit because I
think to Poria, I've coined them the future champ five
or six fights ago. He did, he checked all the boxes.
He's the younger fighter. There's a big trend on under
one seventy champions going into title fights thirty five or older.
I believe it's like ninety five percent. No exaggeration to
(26:33):
the younger fighter and also my biggest handicapped for this one.
Speaker 6 (26:36):
I would love to hear your thoughts on this too.
Speaker 8 (26:39):
A little deja vu from Alex Pereira a couple months ago.
Remember Pereira gets violently knocked out by Adasanya, then goes
up the weight class and you're expecting the bigger power.
It's too quick of a turnaround. I was concerned for Pereira.
Speaker 1 (26:52):
We kind of see this Bolhovich fight. Yeah, you can
make the case of Bolhovich.
Speaker 8 (26:55):
Wonderful, right right, and now with this case, Vulk just
got violently finished before. He's never been stopped in the
UFC by the bigger fighter, by Makachev. And now to
Poria Man, I think on the ground standing up Cardio,
we've seen him absolutely nuke Josh Emmett, who's one of
the toughest fighters in that division.
Speaker 6 (27:14):
And fifty forty two to him.
Speaker 8 (27:16):
I think he scored three ten eight rounds, so I
think Toporia has him covered everywhere. I this is a
pride thing for me, Dave, just because I've coined him
the future champ for so long, and I've been toling
all my buddies.
Speaker 6 (27:28):
I've told you also, yeah, this is the one, this
is the one. I'm happy he.
Speaker 8 (27:32):
Didn't fight Max Holloway because he derails all the hype trains.
Speaker 6 (27:35):
But I'm leaning on Taporia.
Speaker 8 (27:37):
This could be something where we look back at it
and we say, how in the world was Volk who's
been minus six hundred all these fights at one forty five.
Now he's minus one thirty. It could be a gift,
But I'm on the dog side here.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
You know what's interesting. You mentioned the m fight didn't
get him out of there, but he was clearly down it.
Then he startches Bryce Mitchell as a guy that we
don't normally think of a guy that you're going to
start to get out of there the way he did
in that first round.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
So you see the props the sub and I know
you're subathon guy, big subathon guy, right.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
So he's five to one to get that sub and
three to one to get the KO, DK TKO or
DQ or you can just play a money line.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Do you think it more than likely is finished or
do you think it's going to go to the cards.
Speaker 8 (28:20):
I think it's a finish. I think it's a finish
for Taporia. I'm looking at the plus one sixty five
double chance. Yeah, because also with him, what's very interesting,
And these are the kind of fighters that I like
betting on a guy that could beat you standing and
on the ground and instead of getting two Q which
I was telling you before we started recording so many times.
I bet a guy by submission, wins by knockout. I
bet a guy by knockout, he wins by decision. But
(28:42):
I'm usually pretty good at picking just the winner. And
that's what I think I'm gonna do here. I think
Tipouria on the money line and to win by finish.
I think that's his most optimal out.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Yeah, you're still getting some plus money out there right
now without having to pick a method of victory. Not
necessarily a bad way to go if you're on the
and New Side comes Saturday night.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
Look, I'm in.
Speaker 2 (29:02):
The tank for Robert Whitaker. Used to have him on
my show's back at Chicago when he fought there. A
big fan of his problem is father Time is undefeated.
Speaker 6 (29:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Now, the thing with Rob here in this comin event
against Powa Costa is they're about the same age.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
I think we look at Whittaker.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
And go he's so old, right, Powell is just inactive,
so it's not the fact that that really he's maybe
ring rust or anything. But you see thirty three against
thirty two in this co mate.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Should you know.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Big Shot Bob if you will? Should he still be
is he we know how technical he can be? Should
he still be?
Speaker 1 (29:34):
Over two dollars betting favored here?
Speaker 6 (29:37):
Very hard five for me to handicap.
Speaker 8 (29:38):
I think Whittaker coming off that loss to DDP, and look,
DDP now is a champion, so that loss has aged greatly.
The problem with Paulo Colsta is number one, is he
gonna make weight?
Speaker 1 (29:48):
Yeah?
Speaker 8 (29:49):
And number two, he's just been inactive. And it's a
very weird career, right, pulling out of fights, agreeing to
catchway fights, then wants another catchway fight.
Speaker 6 (29:58):
It's a very strange career for Paulo Colsta.
Speaker 8 (30:00):
I think you're right though the Whittaker and him are
the same age. But Whittaker has had these brutal five
round fights with Joel Romero twice. Israel Adasanya got finished
by Izzy also, so he's having these fights and even
when he went back on his run to get another
title shot, decisions against Cannoneers and the Darren Till's of
(30:22):
the world where these are tough, tough fights. He's not
getting anyone out there quickly, so I'm worried about this one.
Speaker 6 (30:28):
This is a pass for me.
Speaker 8 (30:30):
I think Paulo Costa could get him out by knockout.
That was a prop that I was definitely looking at
at plus three fifty him by knockout, just because of
how we saw Whittaker in his last outing. But this
one is a stay away two fighters that I'm a
fan of. Bobby Knuckles was one of my favorite fighters,
still is one of my favorite fighters. But overall, I
think it goes the distance, and that's.
Speaker 6 (30:50):
Where I'm leaning on more so than aside.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Yeah, and it's interesting when you look at the ko props,
it's both three to one either way, right, and I
think if it's Whittaker, it's more volume, right, potentially over
fifteen minutes to get it done inside of fifteen. With Powell,
you're you're hoping for that one shot, but I think
it's it's I'm sorry, Paolo. I think it's fair when
people question your motivation coming in because we talk, we
(31:12):
joke about the red wine and making weight, and if
he comes in and he doesn't make weight and they
still have the fight, and you go, where's the discipline?
Speaker 1 (31:20):
Like is he really in there to win? Or take
another check?
Speaker 6 (31:22):
Yeah?
Speaker 8 (31:22):
And also the one thing that you mentioned there that
I like a lot is there's a lot of fights
on this card where I'm looking at that round three
and I think Whittaker round three I saw twelve to one.
And that's interesting too because of the gas tank issues
with Paolo Costa.
Speaker 6 (31:36):
And there's another fight we'll get to in a little bit,
same thing, round three.
Speaker 8 (31:39):
There's a lot of fights on this card that I'm
looking for a round three stoppage, and this is one
of them. If I was playing aside, it would be that.
Speaker 6 (31:45):
All right.
Speaker 2 (31:45):
I'm fascinated by the Morob against the King Triple C
Henry Sahudo here because again Henry normly ham picks his opponents.
Speaker 1 (31:53):
Did he hand pick the wrong guy here in the machine?
Speaker 7 (31:55):
Yeah?
Speaker 8 (31:55):
I think after what Morob did to Peter Yank, that
was just that was eye opening. Yeah, and I think
he does something very similar. You know, Henry Sahudo is
a very strange individual, and I mean that Woul all
due respect, he just fired his head coach.
Speaker 6 (32:10):
YEP, A guy who's been with him since the Olympic.
Speaker 1 (32:12):
Trials and put it out there for everybody to see.
Speaker 8 (32:14):
Yeah, very very weird. I feel like Henry is just
trying to stay relevant. I don't know what his motivation
is to fight. I know it's to chase a big paycheck.
That's why he retired initially. But Morob is an animal man.
I trained with him over as syndicate and I see
him all the time, and this guy is a machine.
Speaker 6 (32:30):
It is.
Speaker 8 (32:30):
He'll just pick he sees you over there to day
we'll be like, come on, let's spark. Yeah, I'm just
here to hang out. He's that kind of guy, and
I think that he has them covered everywhere like Morob. Yeah,
he's not the Olympic wrestler. But also his teammate al
Jamaine fought recently against Henry Sehudo, so they were training
for that opponent. So I think stylistically it's a bad,
bad matchup for Henry Sahudo.
Speaker 1 (32:52):
Got about a.
Speaker 2 (32:52):
Minute ago, I know you mentioned maybe a fight that
you like. You're Anthony and Hernandez against Roman Kapoloff.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
This is a fight you really like?
Speaker 6 (32:59):
System play Dave an absolute system play.
Speaker 8 (33:02):
Look, I believe it was with you last time that
I was on the show a while back when he
fought Shabazi in Yep Shabezi in round one, Fluffy round
two and three he got a third round stoppage. Anytime
Anthony Fluffy Hernandez fights ladies and gentlemen, just remember this
round two round three system plays. Baby, you got it
because he is known for the gas tank and he
(33:23):
starts off really, really slow. Yeah, he is the favorite
in this one. I would wait if you like Fluffy,
wait after round one. Coopolov is a very dangerous fighter,
and I think he's gonna drop the first round because
this is what Fluffy Hernandez does every single time.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
That's exactly where I was going to go. Just wait
if you like Fluffy until after round one. Nick Graid
heaven in studio. My friend is always get a man.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
David there he is.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
Everybody give him a follow on X as I do
at Nick dais ten.
Speaker 1 (33:48):
When we come.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
Back, We're going to Chicago to catch up with Jordan
Sherwood next here on First Round. We continue this edition
(34:16):
of First Strike by going to the Great City of
Chicago to catch up with Jordan Sure, which you can
follow him on x as I do at Wood on
ESPN one thousand. You know, Jordan, we just had the
Super Bowl here instant city. Have you already made your
reservations for New Orleans next year because the Bears are
on the clock at number one, and maybe you just
(34:36):
go from worse to first. Houses the city of Chicago
preparing for the April Draft.
Speaker 5 (34:40):
It's all we've been talking about every single day.
Speaker 6 (34:44):
Is it Justin?
Speaker 5 (34:45):
Is it Caleb Williams or is it the number one pick?
And we're not thinking about somebody. April can't get here
soon enough so we know who our quarterback is and
then we get set our site set on New Orleans
for the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (34:58):
Unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
I love that town, and certainly this time of the
year I've been in DC in Chicago that both those
cities love a good QB quarter controversy, and you've got
a good one in Chicago, A really good debate this
week is the main event. And you know, I don't
know if there's an argument for somebody else, you can
make it if you want to. For the greatest featherweight
of all time, whether it's Jose Aldo, whether it's Connor
(35:20):
McGregor in his prime whether it's Max Aghway, but that
would be hard to get over Alexander Volkanowski since he
beat Max three times. Now Volk comes back to forty
five after a couple failed attempts at fifty five against
Islam Makachev. Ilia Taporia is a guy that some believe
is next. I know my last guest, Nick Dais, is
one of those guys. How do you prepare for this
(35:42):
because I'm worried that maybe it's a little bit too
soon from the head kick that he suffered at the
hands or at the feats rather of Makashev.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
But this is his division.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
Is it as simple as Volka is back to where
he feels the most comfortable and should feel great in
this matchup against Taporia.
Speaker 5 (36:00):
It's the too soon verbiage I'm going to use with Tapuria.
I think this might be, you know, too soon for Tapuria. Look,
he deserves to be here. He's he's undefeated. He dominated
Josh Emmett, he stopped Bryce Mitchell became the first one
to hand him a loss. So there's a reason why
at twenty seven years of age, people are saying that
(36:21):
this is a similar story to when Connor McGregor knocked
out Jose Al though that he deserves to be there.
You know, he's gone through everybody else, But I think
it might be too soon. This is a dramatic step
up in competition, and I'm not ignoring the fact that, yes,
Alexander Volganowski is coming off that head kick knockout. Albeit look,
(36:41):
he was preparing for the Tatoria fight. He got asked
to step up on short notice and take on Makachev
at a different white class, and you know we saw
the results of it. But I think we cannot ignore
what Alexander Volganowski does at one and can do for
five rounds. And that's where I USh into Poria's ability
(37:02):
to win this fight. They'll have the advantage early, as
I think most people do against Volkanowski with the power,
can he land something, But I think Volkanowski just being
in championship fight after championship fight, and his combination of Cardio,
his wrestling, his boxing, his evolving kickboxing. I just think
(37:22):
at this price that we're getting Volkanowski right now. Plus
the fact too, you're looking at those total rounds right
now that are on the screen at over one and
a half, over three and a half, that's saying a
Volkanowski victory, that's saying a dominating Volkanowski five round decision.
So I'm not yet confident enough to say to Poria
is ready. I think he'll be there again, probably get
(37:44):
another title shot, But for me, it's too quick, too soon.
And at that number at dour what twenty dour twenty
five Volkanowski, that's the cheapest he's been in quite some time,
at one forty five jar.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
And I think it's it's really good advice because I
think a lot of times we, or at least sometimes
in the gaming market, you are a prisoner of what
you saw last and then you see that shocking headkick
from Makashev at one hundred and fifty five pounds and
Vulcan is out.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
But I go back to watching fights with Britain hass.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
You know, Brian Ortega, how did he not finish Vulkan
Max Holloway in a stand up fight?
Speaker 1 (38:18):
How did he not beat Vulk at Max's game?
Speaker 2 (38:21):
He's fought these guys you mentioned it as well, rounded
a one forty five champ as arguably we've ever seen.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
What is the pathway for Taporia? If the dog is
in play?
Speaker 2 (38:31):
Here is it with the hands, or does he want
to take the fight down to the ground against Alexander
the Great.
Speaker 5 (38:37):
Well, I mean, I do think people forget that to
Puria is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, but I
think his rarity is on the feet and it's in
the power. We saw him bounce back at a weight
class up against Jay Herbert knock him out, you know,
in the second round. Obviously the striking was the difference
in the Bryce Mitchell fight. So I think he's going
to have to score early. He's going to have to
(38:58):
land something early, make Volkanofsky chase him like most guys
chase him when they're fighting. In you talk about those
dominating victories, so I think, yeah, that's the pathway to victory.
It's the poia early. So look, if you like the poia,
maybe you're in on a knockout that chin is not recovered.
At plus three hundred, that's a good price. I don't
(39:19):
like the submission prop because we saw him Volkanovski get
out of those ridiculous submission attempts with Brian Ortega, So
I don't think that Volks getting submitted by anybody anytime soon.
But again, as I said, I think the championship pedigree,
the will and his just rare combination of skill everywhere
is enough for me to have confidence. Volkanovsi he's gonna
get his hand raised and still champion on Saturday Night.
Speaker 2 (39:40):
You know, years ago, right there in the Great City
of Chicago, I had Robert Whitaker on my show with
Joel Romero. Is they getting ready for their fight their
championship bount and you know, Yoel's we're joking around, He's
putting me in headlocks.
Speaker 1 (39:53):
We're having fun.
Speaker 2 (39:55):
Robert is all business right, and he's telling me, Hey,
when Yoel is in here with me, he don't ask
me about the fight, like I don't want to give
anything away. You know how Robert Whittaker prepares for a fight,
It's intense, like he's not giving up anything. Polo costa
kind of freewheeling, having fun drinking red wine. Right, how
(40:16):
do you handicap where these two guys are in their careers,
because that's the only thing that holds me back from
looking at Powell at plus a dollar eighty five.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
I just don't know how seriously he takes anything.
Speaker 5 (40:27):
Yeah, I mean, I wish I had a camera following
him around twenty four Saturn to understand. I mean, the
guy has talent, that's for sure. He's got knockout power.
He can put anybody's lights out, But does he care
like is he is? He invested in this and he's
had several fights you know, cancel you know each other out.
But look, look he's in a situation now in this
(40:48):
fight where like we got a new middleweight champion of
the world and Dragon's duplus's. If he gets a victory
over the former champion of Robert Whittaker, he's right there
to re challenge for that middleway title. And I understand
we were just talking about. I don't believe Alexander Volkanowski
is going to feel the effects of a head kick knockout.
I might be on the side of feeling the effects
(41:10):
of Robert Whittaker. I mean, has he just become too
long in the tooth after war after war he's had
at middleweight. He was winning that fight. Is memory serves
you against Drake's duplessis and then all of a sudden
he wasn't And one mistake is all it takes for
Paulo Costa to end the night. But I think I'm
on two sides of it. I think I think Paulo
(41:30):
Costa at the price he's at right now is worth
like a little sprinkle at plus nine eighty five. I
think that that price for Robert Whitticker probably a little
bit too steep. But I also am confident that it's
likely in the over that that I do believe Robert
Whittaker is such a difficult guy.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
To get out of there.
Speaker 5 (41:47):
Only the best of the best Drakis, Duplessis, Israel Sonya
gets him out of there. So I think probably hedging
my belief that Whittaker is going to look for takedowns,
you know, control this fight, not mess around with the feet.
So that's why I do also like the over at
two and a half, kind of playing in both sides,
because I'm not necessarily going to go either way right
(42:08):
now here on a Tuesday, But I think, look, there's
paths ways to win. Robert record probably should win the fight.
Just as we just we talked about Pablo Costa, where's
his head at? He is he emotionally invested in this fight.
But I think it's safe to say that this fight's
going going into the later round.
Speaker 2 (42:22):
You know, and this is one of those fights too
that maybe to your point, you wait till Friday and
see the way, like you know me the ways. I
don't know if it tells you the story. It could
tell you the story of Costa. You know what you're
getting in Robert Whitaker. There will be no doubts about
his professionalism and the way he's going to attack this fight.
The questions might be on the other side. Hey, let's
get the way in and there's no bottle of red wine.
(42:42):
It could be an underdog city in this one. I
want to get to another fight and heavyweights and Marcus
Viragerio Delima against Justin Tafa, and Tafa right now is
small dog in this one of these battles of big men.
How do you see this one playing out?
Speaker 5 (42:55):
Yeah? Look, I mean this is gonna be fun for
as long as it lasts. Justin Tapas on a little
bit of a role right now, like four wins in
a row, all by first round knockout, I believe, And
he's got ridiculous takedown de fence of memory serves. I mean,
the guy he just doesn't get taken down on. Granted
he hasn't been there with unbelievable top tier or heavyweight
Bratborz and Delima is not one of them. But Dalima
is certainly a guy that you do not want on
(43:15):
top of top of you. And I think Delima is
going to like, remember what just happened to him and
he got blitzed by the Black Beast in Utah, I
think his last fight. Yeah, And look, Justin Toff is
going to offer the same type of game, a guy
that you don't not mess with on the feet. So
I just believe that Delima is going to struggle to
get that takedown. Try out at gates early and Tap
(43:36):
is on a row, and how could you not like
a guy on a row at plus money?
Speaker 6 (43:41):
Right now?
Speaker 5 (43:41):
You see there also the total round and a half.
They don't expect this fight to go long into the evening.
That's saying to me that Justin top is going to
land something and completely change his fight's direction. So at
plus money, a guy that's got four wins in a
row all by knockout against a guy whose chin has
been suspect he's quit before he just got stopped by
(44:02):
the Black Beast, I'm all in.
Speaker 1 (44:03):
On Justin Tafa.
Speaker 2 (44:04):
You know, I know that Marcus probably still has nightmares
of seeing Derek Lewis, the flying the flying switch knee,
who saw that coming? By the way, nobody saw that coming,
And I don't know he still didn't see it coming
because he got knocked out from it. Jordan, great stuff
is always my friend. Appreciate you keep Chicago. Just deep
(44:24):
breath Chicago.
Speaker 1 (44:25):
It's gonna be okay. We're gonna get to April Streth.
Speaker 5 (44:28):
We're gonna do it. We're gonna get through it.
Speaker 2 (44:29):
I want to pay up Forrittness and Rob Righta for
putting this show together.
Speaker 1 (44:34):
Enjoy the fights. Everybody, catch some tickets. We'll see you
next week. Right here on first right
Hey, welcome to first Strike here on Visa.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
I'm youro Dave Ross for the next home We're gonna
break down UFC two ninety eight. We got a championship
bounce on the line, maybe arguably the greatest featherweight of
all time, Alexander Volkanovski puts that strap of the line
against Oya Tapoya as he gets his first title shot.
Here as we ring in twenty twenty four in Arnest
at UFC two ninety eight in Anaheim, California, we got
(00:40):
a great show as always.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Lufinnikara's gonna join us.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Nick Dais is gonna be here in studio in Jordan
Sherwood in Chicago. But for the first time ever, we
are taking the show overseas to jolly old London, England Town.
We are joined by our friend Ried Kuni. I'll read
as I do on X at Fight Nomics. He's the
(01:03):
author of the same name. Read you're in London talking
to UFC. What's going on over se over that big
pond of ours?
Speaker 3 (01:12):
Hey, you know people know about UFC over here.
Speaker 4 (01:15):
You've got Tom Aspinalla, you got Connor McGregor right next door.
There's still enough buzz that when I tell people that's
my favorite sport.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
They know what I'm talking about.
Speaker 4 (01:23):
So even though there's some soccer games, football games as
they refer to it, here, there's some Champions League going on.
So I'm ducking out at halftime and talking to you,
and then I'll head back over to the pub and
see who wins the games.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
I think we've made first Strike history here by going international,
truly global with this edition of it. Let's get right
to it. Obviously, it will be back here stayside. I
Anaheim for this made event to pour you up against Volkanovski. Obviously,
Alexander coming back to his weight class at one forty five,
and I mentioned off the top read some would consider
him the greatest featherweight of all time. What's interesting is
(01:56):
there's a lot of respect in the marketplace for Taporia
here as the younger challenger at twenty seven. Obviously vult
now at thirty five. I know those models like to
favor that young guy. What are the numbers showing you
here in this featherweight championship belt?
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Yeah, well you mentioned two things.
Speaker 4 (02:13):
One, he may be the greatest featherweight champion of all time.
The problem is that my data includes two performances at
lightweight that did not go his way, and that's a
lot of minutes. And when you think of just that
rolling window of the last five years, using all those
minutes at lightweight, it really muddies the waters with his signal.
And then you got to a Puria who, like many
other challengers that I've mentioned before, we don't have a
(02:35):
ton of sample size. Out of sixty two minutes of
fight time, twenty five of those came in his last
main event against Josh Emmett, and that was a lopsided
drubbing against a guy who just could not keep up
with him. And so if anything, his stats are actually inflated.
So we got deflated on one side, inflated on the other.
And so it's no surprise the numbers, the models are
coming out on the younger guy just.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
A little bit.
Speaker 4 (02:57):
And so it's hard for me to factor all that
in a situation where I intentionally do a dogg or
pass play, you know, maybe take a step of the
underdog if I see the price get to where I
want it, or I kind of bank on the fact
that this is a pretty even matchup and Volkanovski is
still much more proven at five rounds at featherweight. I
would lean his way if it weren't for the fact
(03:19):
that the models were telling me otherwise.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
So I may just end up with a prop on
and over. But we'll see where the price lands.
Speaker 5 (03:25):
You know.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
That's fascinating.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
By the way, we showed the ubertail of the tape,
these are your numbers that you created for these data points.
So it's absolutely fascinating the fact that your models do
not throw out the two failed attempts at lightweight, right,
because I know a lot of people this week are going,
all right, well, you can throw those out because walks
back to his weight class. The data points don't do that, right,
They're going to say, I know it's a different weight class,
(03:46):
but still those that's tread on the tire, so to speak,
because he comes back down to forty five.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Correct, It gets messy.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
There's just so much weight class switching these days, especially
in those middle ranks, the lightweight, featherweight, and walterweight. It
would just really complicate my day to day. So yes,
it could be done. We could delete out some of
those fights. I just don't do it normally, and we're
still doing okay in the long run. But this is
one of those situations, as you call it out, I say, yeah,
I'm probably gonna be a little.
Speaker 3 (04:13):
Bit more cautious about this main event.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
And you know that I like to make my money
elsewhere on the car, so I hope that it doesn't
come down to that.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Let's look elsewhere in the car then see if we
can find some better value. And I think that's a
great lesson that you're putting out with the numbers kind
of conflict with where your head would be at. Sometimes
it could be a pass. So maybe doggar pass scenario
here for you.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
In the main event.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
I love Robert Whitaker. I'm the tank for the guy.
Obviously didn't go well the last time out against DDP.
Now he's back in there against Paulo a Costa and
I look at this and I.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Go, should rob at thirty three? And I guess it's
you know, you look at Powlo. He's only thirty two,
he's inactive these days. But should Robert Whittaker?
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Are the data points saying he should be a minus
two twenty five betting favored here?
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Yeah, that's an interesting call. I mean, you call it
his age.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
He's only thirty three, but he is definitely a weathered
thirty three because he has.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Eight knockdown received throughout his career. That is a lot.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
That's an unusual number for someone who hasn't tipped over
the threshold of thirty five.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Costa, on the other hand, has been very inactive, and
even if you.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
Do credit that win against Luke Rockhold, which at high altitude,
clearly took an effect on Luke Crockhold, who was on
his way into retirement. Anyway, even crediting Costa for that performance,
he's two and two in five years. That's just not
a lot of action, so he's coming in with less experience.
He's been inactive. Whittaker is one of those guys who's
very technical. You know what you're going to get with
(05:32):
him in the stand up, and Costa is hesitant. He
is accurate and powerful, but he doesn't pull the trigger
very well, and that I think plays to the favor
of Whittaker, who is going to be a slightly rangier.
He's just a little bit more technical in his combinations.
He's able to land volume, and I think he's going
to keep the high pressure and in a three round fight,
I think he can do it long enough and avoid
(05:54):
some big bomb counter that's really costs only shot here.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
And to that point, you look at the total here
over too and a half. It is iced to the over,
which feels like a correlay to play that. If you
like rob it's probably going to be by decision with
the technical work getting in and out. Maybe if you're
on the power side, it would be by finish here
by KOTK or DQ that's plus three dollars.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Do you see finishing potential for the favorite here to
lower that price, Tagger?
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Do you think it would be by decision, which, by
the way is plus a dollar thirty.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
So neither guy has attempted a single submission in their
entire career to date, so let's just throw that out
the window. Yes, there is knockout potential on both sides.
I think Whitaker might be a little bit underrated in
that because his power rating isn't quite as good as
where it was when he was coming up in the
title run. That's because he's been against elite talent who
had good defense like Israel Atasanya. All those points striking
(06:44):
matches will deflate that number and costa something to call
out here, fifty seven percent head strike defense is by
far the worst on this card, and so he is
going to get pieced up. So I do see finishing
potential on both sides. Maybe we see a return to
Whitaker's old days where he lands those knockdowns. He's scored
ten of them in his UFC career. That's a pretty
(07:06):
healthy number. We just haven't seen it in a while.
So yes, I do think there's finishing potential if you're
getting a lot of plus money on under two point
five or inside the distance, I think there's value here,
especially at middleweight where half of all fights are going
to end inside the distance anyway.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Love where the numbers are showing you there and leading
you maybe to an underplay two and a half a
plus money. I want to get to machado Ian Gary
against Hands of Steel here and Jeff Neil fight we're
supposed to see in twenty twenty three. We're now finally
going to see it here in twenty twenty four in February,
and you look at Jeff.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
He's still a pretty big dog here plus do eighty five.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Gary polarizing outside of the octagon, some might say, but
inside of it, he's looked really good in his ascent
we got one of those age differences thirty three to
twenty six, where the numbers leading you here read Yeah.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
First of all, both these guys are huge for welterweight.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
I mean I think Jeff Neil usually had a big
reach advantage, and for the first time ever, Gary is
almost right there. I mean, just a bit below in
terms of wingspan, but also much much taller, so he
may be able to use that wingspan a little bit
more effectively than Neil.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
So, first of all, two.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
Big guys, neither one of them takes many takedown attempts,
so we should see a striking duel and Gary the
biggest difference here is that he outworks his opponents by
more than fifty percent, whereas Neil tends to be on
the receiving end. He waits for his opponents to lead
the dance, and he's looking for that act counter now
that has worked for him in the past seven knockdowns scored,
(08:31):
but not at a very high rate. Gary is just
going to be smothering him with pace, and that's why
I see a heavy line for the younger guy here.
I think this is a question of volume. I don't
think Neil can deal with that kind of volume when
he's not going to a plan B and going for
a takedown.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
You know, I'm kind of surprised. I look at the
total of two and a half. It's juiced evenly MINUSNAR fifteen.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
Either way.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
It feels like, look, we know the power that Neil has,
we know the volume that Gary has.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Do you see finishing potential here?
Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (09:03):
Gary's knockdown rate is impressive and it's way above average.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
And Neil is getting on.
Speaker 4 (09:08):
He does have the worst defense of the two, and
so you know, if anybody is getting dropped, it's probably
going to be Neil. Now he's no slats with his
hands either, So again we have a striking duel between
two guys who are pretty good at scoring knockdowns, and
they're not exactly pristine on their own side. They have
taken a little bit of damage. So yes, I again
(09:29):
I do see more than average finishing potential. It's at
welterweight and yeah, eleven knockdowns total, that's enough to expect
maybe someone getting dropped.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
That's the way I look at it too.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Very quickly, with all due respect to UFC three hundred
will figure out what that made event is going to be.
These four fights here in the main card are as
attractive to me as a fight fan as you're going
to see Henry sut against Rob Delishpieley. I can't wait
for this fight, right, and I see that Henry Suhuto
triple C King of Cringe.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
All this thing almost a two dollar betting on dog
to the machine.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Here in Morob, he is thirty seven Henry, and he
always retires and comes back. Should he have stayed retired?
Is this a good matchup for Sudo or is Morob
just going to overwhelm him with volume?
Speaker 3 (10:14):
I don't know about how they got this particular matchup.
I don't know if that's what Suhudo asked for.
Speaker 4 (10:19):
He's a pretty wise guy in terms of picking and
choosing where his fights are, but coming in out at
thirty seven trying to take on arguably the next contender
with Mirob, I don't like this matchup for him. He
is going to be undersized, which is typical for Henry,
but once again undersized, and he's finally dealing with someone
(10:39):
who has as good wrestling as he does. Just statistically speaking,
they're very very similar. In fact, Mirab is actually more
eager and used in going for takedowns, and then everything
else is pretty even.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
You know, real close on the tail of the tape.
Speaker 4 (10:54):
Once again, we have a high volume striker in Mirob,
and we have a low volume power guy in sehudo
and at bantamweight, unlike those other weight classes we just
talked about. I'm not banking on one shot changing the
outcome of this fight. I think it's going to be
the pace of Mirob on the feet that wins the
rounds and then the wrestling match.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Who knows, but age does factor in here. I gotta
go with.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Morob twenty seconds ago. What are you eating over there
in England? How's their cuisine?
Speaker 4 (11:24):
I think I think there's gonna be some like lamp
sausage and pints for the second half of the football games.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
Get back in the side of the pond, Redcode, safe travels,
my friend.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Great having you from England.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
When we come, I'm going to Arizona not that far next,
as we check in with Loop and Acaro. As we
continue this edition of First Strike here on these in
these sports betting network before you make your next wager,
(12:11):
be sure to visit Vison dot com check the current
betting splits data. I want to know where the money
in thevets are moving for every single sport. While the
betting splits page is updated with draftings ods every five minutes,
you can see the changes in all of the action,
find out where the public is betting based on the
number tickets and where the money doesn't match the public opinion.
We're always improving our betting splits page and recently added
soccer betting splits.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
From around the world, like where Reid Coon just was.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
So betting splits are another way THESA is here to
make you a smarter, better year round. Check out today's
betting splits for every game at decent dot com.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
Slash splits back here.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
I am Dave Ross here at Circus Sports Book in
fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada. We just had to read Coon
from Across the Great Pond in England.
Speaker 6 (12:50):
Now we don't go.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
That far just to hop skipping a jump up to Arizona.
That catch up with our guy Loof and to Carroll.
You can follow him on Ex's I Do at Gamblou.
He's the host of the out business podcast Lou We Excel.
Here in Las Vegas. The Super Bowl is over now, man,
You look at this card here UFC two ninety eight,
it's pretty sexy top to bottom. With all due respect
(13:13):
to the UFC three hundred and the Super Bowl. Are
you kind of glad that we can now really focus
in on Mma.
Speaker 7 (13:20):
Yes, Dave, thanks for having me on, love to share
insight here. Super Bowl's over. I feel the same way
after Saint Patrick's Day in New Year's get it out
of the way. Yeah, So concentration on UFC and on
the horizon the passion that is the NHL Playoffs as
I'll start to really dig into that as well as
(13:43):
the passionate sport of UFC.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
Absolutely love it.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Lo looking to get to your sneak teet before we
get done with this conversation today. I want to start
right with the very first part of the day because
I know for a lot of people like us that
are really getting into the weeds and not just you know,
going to the comaine and the main event, which I
know that that's what a lot of the general public
looks at.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
Sometimes.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Man, you get off with that first fight of the
night and you get that w it can kind of
set your sales for the rest of the event. Andrea
Lee against Morana Maverick is an intriguing fight here, and
we're seeing the numbers where mav is a solid favorite.
She comes in right now at minus a dollar ninety two.
Henria leave right now. The comeback there is plus a
dollar sixty. The total set over to and a half
(14:24):
really juice here minus three thirty, which means we're expecting
this to hit the cards. Sometimes when you play those
favorites and it hits the cards, you got to take
a deep breath before you get those results. How do
you see the first fight of the night playing out?
Speaker 7 (14:37):
It should be an interesting fight. These ladies know one
another from their time up in Denver. They've trained together
and in fact, they did mister Maynard's job for him
by contacting one another. Then after they agreed, they contacted
Maynard to fight. It's a great stylistic matchup, long, tall,
(14:58):
drink of water and striker primarily working on her wrestling,
and she has been in with I believe a higher
level of competition than has Maverick. Maverick's a little younger,
a little more grappling wrestling based, and I believe that
it's correct. Even though Maverick open one seventy, it's crept
(15:20):
up a little bit. I believe Maverick should be the
favorite here. I also believe it could be decisioned. But boy,
I like who Andrea Lee's been in with, and once
these props come out, Lee decision could be a very
strong number. And it's something that I may have to consider.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Yeah, because again, if Reno Maverick cod get her to
the ground and it did stay, you would think the
advantage there would be for Lee if it stays standing
and it potentially hits the cards and the numbers, indicating
that's exactly where Vegas at least expects us to go.
Speaker 7 (15:54):
In a large cage in La. Now we're not at
the Apex, So these two girls are going to be
like two flies in a barrel fight, and there's gonna
be plenty of room for lead a maneuver.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
At great point because again, the last couple of fight
cards been right here at ufc Apex, very tight quarters.
Here in Anaheim, it's gonna be you can really have
some room to move, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
Let's stick with the ladies.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Gets to a man alimos against some McKenzie dern and
durned the small dog in this one. Again, we would
expect if you're on the Mackenzie Dern side, you do
not want to see this fight stay standing. If you're
on the Amanilimo side, that's exactly where you want this
to stay. Mackenzie is six years the junior of Amanda here,
how do you see this one playing out?
Speaker 7 (16:36):
This is the fight that's had the most aggressive line
movement as lemoshow oping minus two seventy. So this line
got pounded, and it got pounded clearly by people that
believe Dern is in a good position to submit Lamosh.
I'm not one of those people by any way. Stretch
of the imagination listen, Lemosh was getting ready for Tatiana Suarez,
(17:02):
who's a big, tall, mean wrestling phenom, and that camp
was perfect because as Suarez falls out, Dern comes in
very short notice. And Dern, though she has great grappling,
it's BJJ. She doesn't really even know how to spell wrestling.
So I don't know how Dern, again in a large cage,
(17:24):
is going to be able to clasp onto Lemosh and
get her down in this fight. I just absolutely disagree
with the line movement and feel that Lemosh is the side,
and it's also the value.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
And again with this number coming down as dramatically as
it has down to a dollar thirty here today, Would
you keep waiting, Lou and just keep hoping that the
dern money comes in and then wait till Saturday and
hoping maybe you can get her minus a dollar fifteen
at that point.
Speaker 7 (17:53):
No, because it's already bounced. We took the Bout Business
podcast already released Lamosh at minus one t so at
that scene, it's low point, and now I think we're
starting to see buy back.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Fascinating.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
That's exactly who you're trying to wait for that dip,
and maybe the DIP's already come and going back the
other way.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Great information there.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Let's get to the main event because it is fascinating
when you look at Alexander Volkanowski, arguably the greatest one
hundred and forty five pounder we've ever seen.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
That's debatable. What's not debatable is went.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
Up to fifty five a couple times, didn't work out
his way back now to his quote unquote comfort zone.
You've heard the rhetoric clue we know about the numbers
for champions at thirty five, it's normally that demarcation line.
You don't want to be back in faves in title
bots against a guy who's twenty seven. Is it as
simple as that, or do we look at Vulcan say yeah,
(18:43):
he still is the best at forty five until somebody
else can knock him off that perch.
Speaker 7 (18:49):
In this humble handicapper's opinion, there's no question that Vulcan
is the goad of one forty five. He beat Max
Holloway three times, he beat Aldo and those are two
top names in the previous goats in the division. Volkanowski,
I think, is completely motivated by the huge yapper on
(19:12):
this challenger. It is Tapuria. His mouth out runs his ability.
In my humble opinion, yes, he's fought two decent opponents,
two good opponents in his last two, Bryce Mitchell and
Josh Emmett, But compared to what Vulcan whose Vulk has
been in with, I really I'm fascinated by the move
(19:37):
in this fight where Vulk opens one seventy five and
the return early on Tuporia one fifty five. Again about
business members are holding topori at one thirty five, But
that's before I saw him open his yapper and start
to talk about things that he should not be talking
(19:59):
about at this point in time where this fight is lined,
and I'm seeing a Vulk lower than one thirty five
at many locations, so shop around. I think Vulkan is
the value. However, it's not his age that bothers me
a bit. What bothers me with Volkanowski is that it's
just four months after a head kick knockout. If you
(20:22):
saw the interview with Volkanowski in January, he was very
emotional and it was a disturbing interview in my opinion.
It's also my opinion that four months isn't enough and
he could be somewhat affected still by that knockout four
months ago. If this fight were to get postponed, I
(20:46):
would clearly change all opinions to go to the Volkanowski side.
If it goes off on Saturday night, I think it's
possible Vulk could be rushing back a little bit too soon.
Speaker 1 (20:58):
Excellent insight.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
If you saw what lou is alluding to in the
post fight interview of his last fight, it was after
the Makachev loss was disturbing. Like the things that Bulk
talked about and why he needs to fight sooner, I'm
right there with you. You wonder about the time, not
enough time, possibly a lapsing from that last loss very
quickly got about ninety seconds comin event. Robert Whitaker is
(21:19):
one of my favorite fighters. I think he's a fan favorite.
Powell Costa is one of those guys that you know,
put down the red wine, he get back in shape
and you go, all right, this guy could be what
we always thought he would be. What do we make
of Powell now? As a solid dog at plus a
dollar eighty five?
Speaker 7 (21:34):
This is a balance fight, balanced so did Robert's last
fight was at an outlier. I think he laid an
egg against dupleus C and I do think it's an
outlier Costa we haven't seen since twenty twenty two, and
it was then against a guy washed as he could
be in Luke rock Hold. Which which way you think?
(21:55):
I mean, how much improvement do you think Costa has had?
And is Robert ready to come back after what many
believe is an outlier performance? So which Robert we gonna get?
Speaker 6 (22:04):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (22:05):
Great question.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
We'll have to find out on Saturday very quickly about
business podcasts and also the sneak teep.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
Tell the people what they get sneak teep.
Speaker 7 (22:12):
On Monday, you get opening line report like we shared
an about business podcast on Friday, Final Releases. Appreciate you
having me on, Dave, and good luck with everything at
the fights all of you listeners now, well.
Speaker 1 (22:24):
It's great to have you on.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
I see those pictures of Muhammad Ali behind you, and
I always go man if Eddie Futch just doesn't throw
in the towel Joe Frazier. But that's a conversation for
another day, my friend love having the conversations. Will we
come back, Nick day, This is going to join us
right here in studio as we continue this edition of
first Track here on these.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
If you haven't done so already, what.
Speaker 6 (23:12):
Are you waiting for?
Speaker 1 (23:13):
Check out the new Vson dot com. Jbt's got a
daily NBA vetting article.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
His picks have all been hot in this NBA season,
so don't start your morning without it.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
A good copy right there britten us, so check it
out thenew Vson dot com and check it out today.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
We have a real treat right now because Nick DAAs
has graced our presence inside our vs and studios here
at Circus Sportsbook. You can follow him on X as
I do at Nick DAAs ten. He is the host
of the Veterans Minimum podcast. My goodness, Nick, when I
look and see on social media the star power you've
had on the pop.
Speaker 6 (23:49):
Oh, you're two kind.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
I mean they're just rolling in to sit down with
a great Nick Das. How has it been, my.
Speaker 6 (23:53):
Friend, It's been great. It's been great.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Give me some highlights of some of the you can
you can humble break. Tell me about some of the
stars you got to.
Speaker 8 (23:59):
I mean Steve in a Smith, both Krackenberger, Warren Sharp,
you know, like the list goes on see it also,
most importantly the boy himself.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
Great to have you back on deck.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
Let's talk about this card here, because you know you,
Britta and I were just even talking during the break,
and we talk about the dangers all the time when
fights go to the cards, especially when you're on the
fathe I was going to just hold your breath, Yeah, just.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
Hold your breath because you you know, we're seeing fights.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
You go to the Apex, you watch these fights and
sometimes they get judged differently. Do you go into a
fight card before you make your waiters and guard This
fight I don't.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Think is going to hit the cards. Therefore I got
a better handicap on it.
Speaker 2 (24:38):
If I think there's going to be a finish just
picking up what I'm putting down, because sometimes I go, Man,
if I think this is going to hit the cards,
I really do have to hold my breath sometimes.
Speaker 8 (24:46):
Well, you're talking to someone that only bets finished props
and submissions and tkos, so.
Speaker 6 (24:50):
I never have to worry about that.
Speaker 8 (24:53):
When it does go to the decision, I'm usually screwed
out anyway. But to your point, I do agree, man.
I think my my biggest complaint is when it's so
different from what you and I have seen. Right, if
you and I have a twenty nine to twenty eight
either fighter, I'm cool with that, Dave, I can live
with that. What drives me crazy is when you have
(25:13):
one side thirty twenty seven and then I have it
thirty twenty seven. That I think is such a dramatic
difference where we need to have some evaluation both on
your and my end, and then when the judges have
it that wide and different, that's my biggest complaint about
MMA judging.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
You know, back in the day, when I'd have fight
parties in DC and I didn't care who you are,
a man, wim or a child. You came over to
the house late night to watch the fight. I gave
you a pen and paper and you were going to
score the fight. And I did this for these reasons, Yeah,
to see what are you seeing?
Speaker 6 (25:44):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (25:44):
And what are some of these judges seeing.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
I wonder what we're going to see in the main
event because right now it is juice to the over
three and a half rounds here Minu style thirty for
Volk against the Pooria in the title matchup at forty five.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
So again not saying it's going to hit.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
The cards, but do you think we're going to ge
finish here or do you think this is one of
those that could be a five round knockdown, dragout, big
cage here in Anaheim. So I assume that favors to
Pouria because he'd like to keep it standing with the hands.
How do you see a plan out?
Speaker 6 (26:12):
Well?
Speaker 8 (26:12):
I want to push back a little bit because I
think to Poria, I've coined them the future champ five
or six fights ago. He did, he checked all the boxes.
He's the younger fighter. There's a big trend on under
one seventy champions going into title fights thirty five or older.
I believe it's like ninety five percent. No exaggeration to
(26:33):
the younger fighter and also my biggest handicapped for this one.
Speaker 6 (26:36):
I would love to hear your thoughts on this too.
Speaker 8 (26:39):
A little deja vu from Alex Pereira a couple months ago.
Remember Pereira gets violently knocked out by Adasanya, then goes
up the weight class and you're expecting the bigger power.
It's too quick of a turnaround. I was concerned for Pereira.
Speaker 1 (26:52):
We kind of see this Bolhovich fight. Yeah, you can
make the case of Bolhovich.
Speaker 8 (26:55):
Wonderful, right right, and now with this case, Vulk just
got violently finished before. He's never been stopped in the
UFC by the bigger fighter, by Makachev. And now to
Poria Man, I think on the ground standing up Cardio,
we've seen him absolutely nuke Josh Emmett, who's one of
the toughest fighters in that division.
Speaker 6 (27:14):
And fifty forty two to him.
Speaker 8 (27:16):
I think he scored three ten eight rounds, so I
think Toporia has him covered everywhere. I this is a
pride thing for me, Dave, just because I've coined him
the future champ for so long, and I've been toling
all my buddies.
Speaker 6 (27:28):
I've told you also, yeah, this is the one, this
is the one. I'm happy he.
Speaker 8 (27:32):
Didn't fight Max Holloway because he derails all the hype trains.
Speaker 6 (27:35):
But I'm leaning on Taporia.
Speaker 8 (27:37):
This could be something where we look back at it
and we say, how in the world was Volk who's
been minus six hundred all these fights at one forty five.
Now he's minus one thirty. It could be a gift,
But I'm on the dog side here.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
You know what's interesting. You mentioned the m fight didn't
get him out of there, but he was clearly down it.
Then he startches Bryce Mitchell as a guy that we
don't normally think of a guy that you're going to
start to get out of there the way he did
in that first round.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
So you see the props the sub and I know
you're subathon guy, big subathon guy, right.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
So he's five to one to get that sub and
three to one to get the KO, DK TKO or
DQ or you can just play a money line.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Do you think it more than likely is finished or
do you think it's going to go to the cards.
Speaker 8 (28:20):
I think it's a finish. I think it's a finish
for Taporia. I'm looking at the plus one sixty five
double chance. Yeah, because also with him, what's very interesting,
And these are the kind of fighters that I like
betting on a guy that could beat you standing and
on the ground and instead of getting two Q which
I was telling you before we started recording so many times.
I bet a guy by submission, wins by knockout. I
bet a guy by knockout, he wins by decision. But
(28:42):
I'm usually pretty good at picking just the winner. And
that's what I think I'm gonna do here. I think
Tipouria on the money line and to win by finish.
I think that's his most optimal out.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Yeah, you're still getting some plus money out there right
now without having to pick a method of victory. Not
necessarily a bad way to go if you're on the
and New Side comes Saturday night.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
Look, I'm in.
Speaker 2 (29:02):
The tank for Robert Whitaker. Used to have him on
my show's back at Chicago when he fought there. A
big fan of his problem is father Time is undefeated.
Speaker 6 (29:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Now, the thing with Rob here in this comin event
against Powa Costa is they're about the same age.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
I think we look at Whittaker.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
And go he's so old, right, Powell is just inactive,
so it's not the fact that that really he's maybe
ring rust or anything. But you see thirty three against
thirty two in this co mate.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Should you know.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Big Shot Bob if you will? Should he still be
is he we know how technical he can be? Should
he still be?
Speaker 1 (29:34):
Over two dollars betting favored here?
Speaker 6 (29:37):
Very hard five for me to handicap.
Speaker 8 (29:38):
I think Whittaker coming off that loss to DDP, and look,
DDP now is a champion, so that loss has aged greatly.
The problem with Paulo Colsta is number one, is he
gonna make weight?
Speaker 1 (29:48):
Yeah?
Speaker 8 (29:49):
And number two, he's just been inactive. And it's a
very weird career, right, pulling out of fights, agreeing to
catchway fights, then wants another catchway fight.
Speaker 6 (29:58):
It's a very strange career for Paulo Colsta.
Speaker 8 (30:00):
I think you're right though the Whittaker and him are
the same age. But Whittaker has had these brutal five
round fights with Joel Romero twice. Israel Adasanya got finished
by Izzy also, so he's having these fights and even
when he went back on his run to get another
title shot, decisions against Cannoneers and the Darren Till's of
(30:22):
the world where these are tough, tough fights. He's not
getting anyone out there quickly, so I'm worried about this one.
Speaker 6 (30:28):
This is a pass for me.
Speaker 8 (30:30):
I think Paulo Costa could get him out by knockout.
That was a prop that I was definitely looking at
at plus three fifty him by knockout, just because of
how we saw Whittaker in his last outing. But this
one is a stay away two fighters that I'm a
fan of. Bobby Knuckles was one of my favorite fighters,
still is one of my favorite fighters. But overall, I
think it goes the distance, and that's.
Speaker 6 (30:50):
Where I'm leaning on more so than aside.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Yeah, and it's interesting when you look at the ko props,
it's both three to one either way, right, and I
think if it's Whittaker, it's more volume, right, potentially over
fifteen minutes to get it done inside of fifteen. With Powell,
you're you're hoping for that one shot, but I think
it's it's I'm sorry, Paolo. I think it's fair when
people question your motivation coming in because we talk, we
(31:12):
joke about the red wine and making weight, and if
he comes in and he doesn't make weight and they
still have the fight, and you go, where's the discipline?
Speaker 1 (31:20):
Like is he really in there to win? Or take
another check?
Speaker 6 (31:22):
Yeah?
Speaker 8 (31:22):
And also the one thing that you mentioned there that
I like a lot is there's a lot of fights
on this card where I'm looking at that round three
and I think Whittaker round three I saw twelve to one.
And that's interesting too because of the gas tank issues
with Paolo Costa.
Speaker 6 (31:36):
And there's another fight we'll get to in a little bit,
same thing, round three.
Speaker 8 (31:39):
There's a lot of fights on this card that I'm
looking for a round three stoppage, and this is one
of them. If I was playing aside, it would be that.
Speaker 6 (31:45):
All right.
Speaker 2 (31:45):
I'm fascinated by the Morob against the King Triple C
Henry Sahudo here because again Henry normly ham picks his opponents.
Speaker 1 (31:53):
Did he hand pick the wrong guy here in the machine?
Speaker 7 (31:55):
Yeah?
Speaker 8 (31:55):
I think after what Morob did to Peter Yank, that
was just that was eye opening. Yeah, and I think
he does something very similar. You know, Henry Sahudo is
a very strange individual, and I mean that Woul all
due respect, he just fired his head coach.
Speaker 6 (32:10):
YEP, A guy who's been with him since the Olympic.
Speaker 1 (32:12):
Trials and put it out there for everybody to see.
Speaker 8 (32:14):
Yeah, very very weird. I feel like Henry is just
trying to stay relevant. I don't know what his motivation
is to fight. I know it's to chase a big paycheck.
That's why he retired initially. But Morob is an animal man.
I trained with him over as syndicate and I see
him all the time, and this guy is a machine.
Speaker 6 (32:30):
It is.
Speaker 8 (32:30):
He'll just pick he sees you over there to day
we'll be like, come on, let's spark. Yeah, I'm just
here to hang out. He's that kind of guy, and
I think that he has them covered everywhere like Morob. Yeah,
he's not the Olympic wrestler. But also his teammate al
Jamaine fought recently against Henry Sehudo, so they were training
for that opponent. So I think stylistically it's a bad,
bad matchup for Henry Sahudo.
Speaker 1 (32:52):
Got about a.
Speaker 2 (32:52):
Minute ago, I know you mentioned maybe a fight that
you like. You're Anthony and Hernandez against Roman Kapoloff.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
This is a fight you really like?
Speaker 6 (32:59):
System play Dave an absolute system play.
Speaker 8 (33:02):
Look, I believe it was with you last time that
I was on the show a while back when he
fought Shabazi in Yep Shabezi in round one, Fluffy round
two and three he got a third round stoppage. Anytime
Anthony Fluffy Hernandez fights ladies and gentlemen, just remember this
round two round three system plays. Baby, you got it
because he is known for the gas tank and he
(33:23):
starts off really, really slow. Yeah, he is the favorite
in this one. I would wait if you like Fluffy,
wait after round one. Coopolov is a very dangerous fighter,
and I think he's gonna drop the first round because
this is what Fluffy Hernandez does every single time.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
That's exactly where I was going to go. Just wait
if you like Fluffy until after round one. Nick Graid
heaven in studio. My friend is always get a man.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
David there he is.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
Everybody give him a follow on X as I do
at Nick dais ten.
Speaker 1 (33:48):
When we come.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
Back, We're going to Chicago to catch up with Jordan
Sherwood next here on First Round. We continue this edition
(34:16):
of First Strike by going to the Great City of
Chicago to catch up with Jordan Sure, which you can
follow him on x as I do at Wood on
ESPN one thousand. You know, Jordan, we just had the
Super Bowl here instant city. Have you already made your
reservations for New Orleans next year because the Bears are
on the clock at number one, and maybe you just
(34:36):
go from worse to first. Houses the city of Chicago
preparing for the April Draft.
Speaker 5 (34:40):
It's all we've been talking about every single day.
Speaker 6 (34:44):
Is it Justin?
Speaker 5 (34:45):
Is it Caleb Williams or is it the number one pick?
And we're not thinking about somebody. April can't get here
soon enough so we know who our quarterback is and
then we get set our site set on New Orleans
for the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (34:58):
Unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
I love that town, and certainly this time of the
year I've been in DC in Chicago that both those
cities love a good QB quarter controversy, and you've got
a good one in Chicago, A really good debate this
week is the main event. And you know, I don't
know if there's an argument for somebody else, you can
make it if you want to. For the greatest featherweight
of all time, whether it's Jose Aldo, whether it's Connor
(35:20):
McGregor in his prime whether it's Max Aghway, but that
would be hard to get over Alexander Volkanowski since he
beat Max three times. Now Volk comes back to forty
five after a couple failed attempts at fifty five against
Islam Makachev. Ilia Taporia is a guy that some believe
is next. I know my last guest, Nick Dais, is
one of those guys. How do you prepare for this
(35:42):
because I'm worried that maybe it's a little bit too
soon from the head kick that he suffered at the
hands or at the feats rather of Makashev.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
But this is his division.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
Is it as simple as Volka is back to where
he feels the most comfortable and should feel great in
this matchup against Taporia.
Speaker 5 (36:00):
It's the too soon verbiage I'm going to use with Tapuria.
I think this might be, you know, too soon for Tapuria. Look,
he deserves to be here. He's he's undefeated. He dominated
Josh Emmett, he stopped Bryce Mitchell became the first one
to hand him a loss. So there's a reason why
at twenty seven years of age, people are saying that
(36:21):
this is a similar story to when Connor McGregor knocked
out Jose Al though that he deserves to be there.
You know, he's gone through everybody else, But I think
it might be too soon. This is a dramatic step
up in competition, and I'm not ignoring the fact that, yes,
Alexander Volganowski is coming off that head kick knockout. Albeit look,
(36:41):
he was preparing for the Tatoria fight. He got asked
to step up on short notice and take on Makachev
at a different white class, and you know we saw
the results of it. But I think we cannot ignore
what Alexander Volganowski does at one and can do for
five rounds. And that's where I USh into Poria's ability
(37:02):
to win this fight. They'll have the advantage early, as
I think most people do against Volkanowski with the power,
can he land something, But I think Volkanowski just being
in championship fight after championship fight, and his combination of Cardio,
his wrestling, his boxing, his evolving kickboxing. I just think
(37:22):
at this price that we're getting Volkanowski right now. Plus
the fact too, you're looking at those total rounds right
now that are on the screen at over one and
a half, over three and a half, that's saying a
Volkanowski victory, that's saying a dominating Volkanowski five round decision.
So I'm not yet confident enough to say to Poria
is ready. I think he'll be there again, probably get
(37:44):
another title shot, But for me, it's too quick, too soon.
And at that number at dour what twenty dour twenty
five Volkanowski, that's the cheapest he's been in quite some time,
at one forty five jar.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
And I think it's it's really good advice because I
think a lot of times we, or at least sometimes
in the gaming market, you are a prisoner of what
you saw last and then you see that shocking headkick
from Makashev at one hundred and fifty five pounds and
Vulcan is out.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
But I go back to watching fights with Britain hass.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
You know, Brian Ortega, how did he not finish Vulkan
Max Holloway in a stand up fight?
Speaker 1 (38:18):
How did he not beat Vulk at Max's game?
Speaker 2 (38:21):
He's fought these guys you mentioned it as well, rounded
a one forty five champ as arguably we've ever seen.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
What is the pathway for Taporia? If the dog is
in play?
Speaker 2 (38:31):
Here is it with the hands, or does he want
to take the fight down to the ground against Alexander
the Great.
Speaker 5 (38:37):
Well, I mean, I do think people forget that to
Puria is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, but I
think his rarity is on the feet and it's in
the power. We saw him bounce back at a weight
class up against Jay Herbert knock him out, you know,
in the second round. Obviously the striking was the difference
in the Bryce Mitchell fight. So I think he's going
to have to score early. He's going to have to
(38:58):
land something early, make Volkanofsky chase him like most guys
chase him when they're fighting. In you talk about those
dominating victories, so I think, yeah, that's the pathway to victory.
It's the poia early. So look, if you like the poia,
maybe you're in on a knockout that chin is not recovered.
At plus three hundred, that's a good price. I don't
(39:19):
like the submission prop because we saw him Volkanovski get
out of those ridiculous submission attempts with Brian Ortega, So
I don't think that Volks getting submitted by anybody anytime soon.
But again, as I said, I think the championship pedigree,
the will and his just rare combination of skill everywhere
is enough for me to have confidence. Volkanovsi he's gonna
get his hand raised and still champion on Saturday Night.
Speaker 2 (39:40):
You know, years ago, right there in the Great City
of Chicago, I had Robert Whitaker on my show with
Joel Romero. Is they getting ready for their fight their
championship bount and you know, Yoel's we're joking around, He's
putting me in headlocks.
Speaker 1 (39:53):
We're having fun.
Speaker 2 (39:55):
Robert is all business right, and he's telling me, Hey,
when Yoel is in here with me, he don't ask
me about the fight, like I don't want to give
anything away. You know how Robert Whittaker prepares for a fight,
It's intense, like he's not giving up anything. Polo costa
kind of freewheeling, having fun drinking red wine. Right, how
(40:16):
do you handicap where these two guys are in their careers,
because that's the only thing that holds me back from
looking at Powell at plus a dollar eighty five.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
I just don't know how seriously he takes anything.
Speaker 5 (40:27):
Yeah, I mean, I wish I had a camera following
him around twenty four Saturn to understand. I mean, the
guy has talent, that's for sure. He's got knockout power.
He can put anybody's lights out, But does he care
like is he is? He invested in this and he's
had several fights you know, cancel you know each other out.
But look, look he's in a situation now in this
(40:48):
fight where like we got a new middleweight champion of
the world and Dragon's duplus's. If he gets a victory
over the former champion of Robert Whittaker, he's right there
to re challenge for that middleway title. And I understand
we were just talking about. I don't believe Alexander Volkanowski
is going to feel the effects of a head kick knockout.
I might be on the side of feeling the effects
(41:10):
of Robert Whittaker. I mean, has he just become too
long in the tooth after war after war he's had
at middleweight. He was winning that fight. Is memory serves
you against Drake's duplessis and then all of a sudden
he wasn't And one mistake is all it takes for
Paulo Costa to end the night. But I think I'm
on two sides of it. I think I think Paulo
(41:30):
Costa at the price he's at right now is worth
like a little sprinkle at plus nine eighty five. I
think that that price for Robert Whitticker probably a little
bit too steep. But I also am confident that it's
likely in the over that that I do believe Robert
Whittaker is such a difficult guy.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
To get out of there.
Speaker 5 (41:47):
Only the best of the best Drakis, Duplessis, Israel Sonya
gets him out of there. So I think probably hedging
my belief that Whittaker is going to look for takedowns,
you know, control this fight, not mess around with the feet.
So that's why I do also like the over at
two and a half, kind of playing in both sides,
because I'm not necessarily going to go either way right
(42:08):
now here on a Tuesday, But I think, look, there's
paths ways to win. Robert record probably should win the fight.
Just as we just we talked about Pablo Costa, where's
his head at? He is he emotionally invested in this fight.
But I think it's safe to say that this fight's
going going into the later round.
Speaker 2 (42:22):
You know, and this is one of those fights too
that maybe to your point, you wait till Friday and
see the way, like you know me the ways. I
don't know if it tells you the story. It could
tell you the story of Costa. You know what you're
getting in Robert Whitaker. There will be no doubts about
his professionalism and the way he's going to attack this fight.
The questions might be on the other side. Hey, let's
get the way in and there's no bottle of red wine.
(42:42):
It could be an underdog city in this one. I
want to get to another fight and heavyweights and Marcus
Viragerio Delima against Justin Tafa, and Tafa right now is
small dog in this one of these battles of big men.
How do you see this one playing out?
Speaker 5 (42:55):
Yeah? Look, I mean this is gonna be fun for
as long as it lasts. Justin Tapas on a little
bit of a role right now, like four wins in
a row, all by first round knockout, I believe, And
he's got ridiculous takedown de fence of memory serves. I mean,
the guy he just doesn't get taken down on. Granted
he hasn't been there with unbelievable top tier or heavyweight
Bratborz and Delima is not one of them. But Dalima
is certainly a guy that you do not want on
(43:15):
top of top of you. And I think Delima is
going to like, remember what just happened to him and
he got blitzed by the Black Beast in Utah, I
think his last fight. Yeah, And look, Justin Toff is
going to offer the same type of game, a guy
that you don't not mess with on the feet. So
I just believe that Delima is going to struggle to
get that takedown. Try out at gates early and Tap
(43:36):
is on a row, and how could you not like
a guy on a row at plus money?
Speaker 6 (43:41):
Right now?
Speaker 5 (43:41):
You see there also the total round and a half.
They don't expect this fight to go long into the evening.
That's saying to me that Justin top is going to
land something and completely change his fight's direction. So at
plus money, a guy that's got four wins in a
row all by knockout against a guy whose chin has
been suspect he's quit before he just got stopped by
(44:02):
the Black Beast, I'm all in.
Speaker 1 (44:03):
On Justin Tafa.
Speaker 2 (44:04):
You know, I know that Marcus probably still has nightmares
of seeing Derek Lewis, the flying the flying switch knee,
who saw that coming? By the way, nobody saw that coming,
And I don't know he still didn't see it coming
because he got knocked out from it. Jordan, great stuff
is always my friend. Appreciate you keep Chicago. Just deep
(44:24):
breath Chicago.
Speaker 1 (44:25):
It's gonna be okay. We're gonna get to April Streth.
Speaker 5 (44:28):
We're gonna do it. We're gonna get through it.
Speaker 2 (44:29):
I want to pay up Forrittness and Rob Righta for
putting this show together.
Speaker 1 (44:34):
Enjoy the fights. Everybody, catch some tickets. We'll see you
next week. Right here on first right
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