December 5, 2023 • 44 mins
Two events left in 2023!
UFC Fight Night 233 goes down this Saturday in Las Vegas and is headlined by Bantamweights Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez!
Catch the full betting preview here, hosted by Dave Ross. He is joined this week by Lou Finocchiaro, Dan Vreeland, Reed Kuhn, and Jordan Sherwood.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Hell.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Welcome to this edition of First Strike.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Dave Ross here at Circus Sportsbook and Fabulous Las Vegas
breaking down Songy Dong against Chris Gutierrez.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
In the main event here on Saturday night.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Got a great crew Loof and Akaro standing by Dan Rieland,
Riedkoon and Jordan Sherwood. But before we look ahead, let's
look back to what we saw at UFC Fight Night,
and wow, if we did not think that Arburn Sarukin
had arrived, we know he is there now. An absolute
demolition of Nil Darryusch in the very first round. Also
a demolition of Jayalen Turner In Bobby Green in the
(00:46):
co main event. But Sarrukian moving up the ranks now
at one point fifty five potentially could have a championship
bout coming up against us On Markachev. Not that far
out into the future. Let's bring in the man you
can follow on at Gamblu. He is Lufin Nikara, the
host of About Business podcast. Lou Great to have you
back on the program, My friend, Sometimes you gotta fight through.
(01:08):
You just go do a show. You go and put
your nose down in handicap fights. That's what you do.
I want to get to this card here and the
main event. When you look at Song You Dong against
Chris Gutierrez, and you can understand why I believe that.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Song You Dong is the favorite here.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Guliera is kind of some indifferent performances in recent outings here.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
But now main events, these guys are not known to
be in this role.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Does being in a main event, potentially a five round
fight change the way you handicap it?
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Right now?
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Chris Gutierrez plus three dollars as a big betting underdog.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
Well, Dave, first of all, thank you for having me
on love to share thoughts on my passion the fights.
In this particular fight, I would answer your question by saying, yeah,
it does make a difference when one fighter doesn't have
five round experience in one may. In this case, that's
what we have. In fact, we have Song coming right
(02:04):
off a five round dynamic performance finish of Ricky Simone,
who I regard as a top vandomweight fighter in that class.
So he comes with momentum, he's been in the main event,
he's gone five rounds, prepared for five rounds, and actually
we've seen Gutierrez. I don't want to say We've seen
(02:25):
him tire, but we've seen his output, which is an
eye to begin with, weighing a little bit in the
later rounds, and this is a huge opportunity for him.
While Song has been in with a much higher elite
caliber opponent, Gutierras is the more mature guy and maybe
(02:46):
the less well rounded fighter. His hands are going to
be full, but the opportunity is great for him. I
just think Songya Dong, though priced obtusely right now, should
be a pretty and we're.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Seeing here right now three and a half rounds juice
to the over a dollar eighty five here, so we
are expecting this one to go deep, potentially into those
quote unquote championship rounds of rounds four and five at
least in this main event here. And you're right, gudier
Is may not tire, but he does wane a little bit.
Do you think that song you Don tries to do
like a Ricky Simone performance here and get him out early,
(03:22):
or do you think the Gutieers can be a little
bit wiley as a veteran here six years the senior
of Song you Don and try to take this into
a deeper round.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
David, you can answer that. For me, I'll go run
to the window right now.
Speaker 5 (03:35):
But I get you.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
It is to me the question in this fight is
how is Gudier is going to handle the championship rounds.
I think, Song, you dong, if he can finish simone,
you can surely finish Gudierra's. Gudier's leg kicks will be
in effect a jab to try and keep your dong
off of him. But I see this as chopping wood
(03:59):
for you, and I think he's gonna chop the tree
down sometime in four or five. I like you dong
inside the distance somehow, all.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
Right, that's to win by finish there minus a dollar ten.
So instead of laying that big price tag, I see
exactly what Lo's doing there and knock that number down
to minus a dollar ten instead of playing that big
price tag. In the co main event, you've got Lineheart
back in there, Anthony Smith Smith against Clil Rowntree Junior.
And what's interesting here is you look at Khalil, who's
(04:27):
we know how dynamic a striker he can be, and
we know Anthony Winehart Smith no onely wants to wrestle, right,
So you got that contrast and styles here Khalil is
a big favorite here minus.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Two forty five.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
If Anthony can get that wrestling going, do you think
he's live as a dog.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
Anthony will be live as a dog provided he gets
his ground game going. He must get this fight to
the ground. And when you look at who round Trees fought,
he hasn't really fought wrestlers that have really even Duriev
was Duriev was really that just trying to throw fire.
(05:05):
I think that Roundtree, his speed, his power, and his
explosion are going to be really tough for Smith to handle,
especially understanding Smith did not have a camp. He's just
jumping in here in short notice. Oh yeah, these guys
stay in shape all the time. But Anthony Smith doing podcasts,
(05:28):
doing TV for the UFC. Meanwhile, Roundtree, a guy that
struggled mentally, has seemed to have aralled some of those
demons and is channeling that in a positive fashion. I
think this is a tough fight for Smith. If it
stays standing, I don't think Smith survives. And if it
goes to the ground, I don't think Roundtree survives. At
(05:50):
the key to the fight will be can Smith get
Roundtree to the ground, And I'm I'll be fascinated to
see if that can happen.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Absolutely, it seems to be one way traffic is day's
standing advantage, big eventage for Khalil Rountree if it gets
to the ground, like you mentioned, that's where the dog
would be in play. Here for Anthony Smith, one of
my favorite nicknames on this cart, and I know you've
got to lean on it. And you give this out
in the sneak Teep, I want to talk to people
about that.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Tell him about it.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
He got the iron turtle back in there against Andre Muineze.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Is this one of the sneak teeps that you've already
given out.
Speaker 4 (06:21):
Yeah, this is a position that was discussed in the
sneak Teep. And what I tried to do, Dave. The
sneak Teep is an opening line report that I've been
doing for the last couple of months, just getting an
early look at where the lines move. And I tried
moonees open you was plus two and a quarter and
I immediately jumped all over and I said nothing because
(06:42):
I wanted that two and a quarter to be around
for sneak Teep. And by the time it got around
it was now plus one eighty on the Moonee side. Yes,
I'm all about Moone's here. His credibility and value as
down as it can be after he fought two world
class grappler in Allen and Craig, and now he gets
(07:03):
a guy that comes in and I don't want to
take anything from the Turtle. He's got a winning UFC record,
He's won his last four fights. But and I mentioned
Duryev earlier, he's the Turtles, the guy that bought Durryev.
Durryev is a striker and doesn't really try and wrestle
Tweelan Holmes Anders. Moonize has beaten Anders as well. Moonize's size,
(07:29):
the fact that he's desperate and fighting for his job.
I just think I don't want to say the wrong
man's favorite. But I said at the time that this
fight goes off with the Turtle maybe minus one forty
minus one forty five. I think Moonize is all kinds
alive here. I've already released him at a high price,
any dog price at a buck fifty or better. On Moonize,
(07:51):
I would try and gobble up now.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
And I think the price will come down after they
watch that again and that they've checked out your sneak teep.
They got a much better number than you're gonna get now.
Andre Munize now down to plus a dour fifty. I
know you've got another lean on, Kevin. You set against
kanan'san song right now plus a dour twenty Kevin a
small favorite here minus a doar forty. What's the sneak
that you have on this one?
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (08:14):
My angle here is song, the different song. Kinnan relatively inconsistent,
but he's been in with He's got the experience factor.
He's been in with good fighters, and he showed all
of us a lot in his fight against Ian Gary,
and so when he's got it going, he's a striker
and he's got some power in his hands. The issue
(08:39):
is is he can be dynamically inconsistent. Now he draws
a guy that's going to be a couple of two
three inches taller than him. He's a Frenchman fighting out
of city kickboxing. The key to you set is the
fact that he's a grappler, and so he's not going
to want to spend too much time standing with song.
(09:00):
He's gonna want to get this thing into the slow dance,
then against the fence, then on the ground for advantage,
and I think he's gonna be able to find his
way in doing that. It's going to take a while.
This is going to be a tight fight because Song
has plenty of experience and heart. But I do like
the debuting fighter who, oh, by the way, opened at
one seventy and now is looking closer to the one forty.
(09:24):
I don't know if i'd take him yet. It's still dropping,
but I'm monitoring that very very closely because when it
gets to its lowest point and ticks a penny up,
that's when I'll jump. Would you on juicet?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Would you look at you set?
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Via decision here Lou knowing that it's going to take
some time here to get Song Kanan down to the
ground and eventually utilize that grappling because if you like that,
you can get right now.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
It's plus an hour forty here on you set. If
you if you like that side.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
Yeah, I'm going to play it, say if you know
I never like a negative side. So is jew Set
potentially a parlay piece, Yes, because I just like to
put a unit out yep. But I'm not going to
get too cute with him. He is the guy that's
giving away experience and UFC a UFC experience, So I'll
(10:15):
be diligent, but I do like as you set based
on the fact that that price is coming down now,
that's because the market likes song and they believe his
experience means something. So you're going to have to weigh
that as you will.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
And by the way you said, I this smoke, he's
plus two fifty to win via decision if you think
it's going to hit the cards there.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
But I'm definitely picking up what you're putting down. We've
got about sixty seconds to go.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Tell the people about the Bout Business podcast each and
every week, Lou, and what they get when they what
they get when they listen in the.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
Bout Business podcast breaks each week, there's a UFC card
right after the way ends occur. I wait that long
to make sure that I have all the data I
need to feel good about releasing everything. I bet I release.
It's on the podcast. It drops every Friday. There's a
UFC card and Dave, thanks so much for letting me
be on. I can't wait to watch the other three
(11:06):
capers today with their input and good luck to everybody
at the fights.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
Absolutely, Lou, I think one of the best things that
you do, and this is why you should follow him
at Gamblu as I do.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
When those weighings come out on Friday.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
You're always all over those and give us the live
updates as you see what's happening with those fighters as
they try to make way.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
We'll appreciate you as always, my friend.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
When we come back, we're shipping up to Boston to
catch up with Dan Rieland. He is coming up next
here on First Strike on vcent these Sports Betty Network.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Become a VSENT Pro subscriber today.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
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Speaker 2 (12:10):
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Speaker 3 (12:10):
You're gonna get unlimited access to our vson dot Com
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(12:33):
shipping up to Boston and catch up with our guy, Gumbyvireelin.
That's how you follow him as I do on X
Dan Rulin. Of course, he's a writer at gambling podcast
Cage Side Press, host of Top Turtle, MMA, SGP N,
MMA PI. He's all over the platform people, and it's great.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
To have him back.
Speaker 5 (12:49):
Dan.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
I gotta ask you something now.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
You're not as old as I am, but I am
a die hard Metropolitan fan. And when the Mets beat
the Red Sox in eighty six, you might not even
have been born yet.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
I was. I was not.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
You were not even born yet. Like we Mets fans.
We like you guys. Why do you hate the Mets?
Speaker 5 (13:08):
I mean you gotta remember big money spending. I don't
love especially in like old washed up Red Sox, like
mo Vaughn, Pedro Martinez. You gots just take You can
take Jason bay to like just watching anybody who you
like kind of love to watch in Boston go somewhere
else to die. A sad death is enough to taint
your taste.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
Yeah, we have the mova On experience at the end
of his days in New York as well, but at
least we have the cowboys in common.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
So that's a good thing.
Speaker 5 (13:33):
Dan.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
You know what I'm gonna ask you. I ask you
each and every week, and I love the answers here.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
The fight you can't wait to wager on, and the
fight you can't wait to watch.
Speaker 5 (13:41):
So I can't wait to watch Tim Elliott stepping out
short notice to fight Super dej I. You know, I
thought it was a fun fight with Alannasonmento versus Superderji,
But like Maderji's never an adult fight. You know, that
fight he had with Matt Schnell super exciting, and then
you're gonna put him in there with an absolute scramble
monster in tin Elliet. I think that that fight could
go either way. Haven't seen the lines on it yet,
(14:01):
so I think it, you know, like the line could
potentially be really interesting, especially with the short notice aspect
in there. But bottom line is, I'm just going to
enjoy watching it.
Speaker 3 (14:09):
By the way, very quickly, Dan, it is right now
Sumer Jerry's plus a dollar fifty against Tim Elliott minus
a dollar eighty.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
I know feels at little steep on the Elliott side.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
I mean, I think we all respect the grappling and
how these exchanges could go, but you're right, that was
that was fight of the decade, potentially sumajery unbelievable fight here.
Are you tempted at the plus price tag there of
Suma Jerry?
Speaker 2 (14:29):
Oh?
Speaker 5 (14:29):
Definitely yeah. I thought this is going to be a
pick him or even tim Elliott is a slight dog,
and I might have might have been interested in tim
Ellien is a slight dog, but like super deg was
doing fine with the grappling of Matt Schnell, who I
think is you know, probably right now on par with
tim Elliott. So if you're telling me I'm getting one
and a half on on Super DEG, I think you
got to pull the trigger on that one. And it's
a card I don't love a lot of dogs in
(14:49):
this card, so even more reason for me to like
Wdergi here.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
All right, So the fight that you can't wait to
watch is that fight.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
But the fight you can't wait to wager on where
you think you still have a good number?
Speaker 2 (14:59):
What do you like?
Speaker 5 (15:00):
Hyantos Santos is a fighter who I've had my eye
on since she was on Contender Series. I kind of
wrote her off after her Contender Series fight, but she
fought it all the way up at flyweight and now
she's fighting. She actually fought at Adam Wait shortly there
after that won the Invicta title at Adam Way. Obviously
the USC doesn't have Adam weight, so we see her
now in between at Strawwaight. I think she finds a
good spot here because she's fighting to Leah Allenkarr, who
(15:22):
was on the Contender series as well, wound up in
a draw. But really the big sell on her and
why she didn't earn a contract right off the bat
was that outside of her grappling, she doesn't seem to
have anything that she can offer most strawweights in the UFC.
So I think with dol Santo is somebody who has
kind of dealt with grappling of better fighters, even than
to lead to Allen Carr. I think she's just gonna
(15:44):
piece her up on the feet, and the fact that
the line has stayed as close as it is makes
it really tempting on Dosantos.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
All right, So right now, minus the doar sixty six
for Dos Santos the very first fight of the night.
I think you know by now how compelled I am
to watch tetsuro Atyra every time he gets in the octagon,
another big favorite against Carlos Fernandez. The problem for me
is I don't know which way Tyra's going to get
to finish, whether it's going to be a sub or
a ground a pound here. What do you make a
Tira in this spot? Is the number two big here
(16:09):
at almost six dollars.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
I mean, it's too big to do anything except for
like throwing a parlay and try to juice up your
numbers a little bit, because you know, like that number
is really big and it's probably only going to get
bigger come fight time. Like if you're hearing this on Tuesday,
good for you. You can probably get it as low as
they'll ever be, because they'll probably be, you know, seven
hundred by the time we get to fight time. What
I do think is kind of intriguing about those fighter
is I think Garlos Hernandez is tough, and I think
(16:34):
you can almost make money off of the fact that
he is really tough, and he is sometimes hard to
put away and Tyra, you know, not that he has
been particularly bad at putting people away, but there have
been times where he's just been comfortable dominating a little
bit here and there. And I think that this is
a spot where if you look for the overs, I
think you're gonna find probably some money, even some value
(16:55):
on over one and a half because people think he's
going to get it done here in the first most likely.
And so I think if you look for the over
on one and a half or maybe even you just
look for a finish prop in the second or in
the third. That way you don't have to pick the
particular you know, like the sub or the KO. I
think you're gonna wind up with a little bit better
of ways to play this one.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
Yeah, there's no way, like you said, I'm not gonna
get interested in laying five thirty five as it's starting
to balloon now, even from five to twenty at the
beginning of the show, so it's already going up. Let's
stay in the undercard here with Luana Santos against Stephanie Egger.
We know how tough Edgar can be, but Santos right
now at minus a dollar fifty five any value on
the dog here.
Speaker 2 (17:31):
I know you're kind of leaning towards some favorites this week.
Speaker 5 (17:33):
Yeah, you actually found one of the few other dogs
that I actually like on this one. I like Stephanie
Egger Mjana Santos. I think her number is mostly baked
into the fact that she beat the crap out of
Juliana Miller, and I feel like we talked about this
last Yeah, I'm not all that impressed with people who
beat up Juliana Miller. It's not a selling point for me.
And she knocked her out. She knocked her out quick,
so props to her there. But I've seen some of
(17:55):
her fights in the past, or fights back when she
was in an LFA on the regional scene, and as
the fight goes deeper and deeper and deeper, she actually
has a little bit of trouble with her gastang. She
looked really tired in the second round of that Jenna
Bishop fight, a fight she wound up losing by split decision.
And Jenna Bishop is kind of a grinder, somebody who
likes to wrestle. We've seen her in Bellator. I don't
think Stephaniegger is quite the grappler that she is. We've
(18:16):
seen her have some kind of spotty submission defense, but
I think it's better than a lot of the people
who Luana Santos has fought. Juana Santos has used a
lot of those key locks from scarfold to submit her opponents.
I don't think that's something she's gonna catch Stephaniegger in.
And it's a position that could potentially give up your
back in a lot of positions. So if Stephanie Egger
scrambles well, she makes Luana Santos work, I think we
(18:38):
could see her start to gain advantages in the second
and the third round here. I don't know that she
puts her away, but she might do enough where she
can win the second and third and steal this one
on the judges' scorecards.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
You know, we are supposed against Stevie Garcia against Melkie
Costa last week. We're gonna get to Garcia in Costa
this week, and we're seeing that Melkie is a wild man.
We know that big favorite here, almost a three dollar
betting favorite.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
You leaning towards the fave here.
Speaker 5 (19:01):
I think you have to, uh, because first of all,
I was already leaning to him, because I don't know
that Steve Garcia can take him down enough to win
the fight, you know, via decision that way, I don't
think anybody can knock out most of those guys from
Shoot to Box too, so that really eliminates just about
every you know, path to victory there for Steve Garcia,
and you know, like just the pace and pressure in
all that that Malki Costa brings is just really impressive.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
You know.
Speaker 5 (19:24):
I loved him on short notice in his debut against
Thiago Moyses. He looked great in that fight despite losing,
So I don't think Steve Garcia poses any real threat
to him. You also have to obviously handicap the fact
that Steve Garcia is the one who pulled out of
a fight last week after or leading into WAYNS. You
have to imagine that it was way in related because
if it was more significant than being way in related,
(19:45):
would he be fighting a week later. No, it was
probably a botchweight cut. He wasn't sweating the weight out correctly.
He wasn't, you know, holding water the way he was like,
there was something wrong with his way cut. Now we're
gonna bounce back a week and granted he's gonna go
up away class, so he has to cut less, but
going to put him through that process again, right, because
he's not coming in straight at one fifty five, He's
not cutting no weight anymore. He's gonna have to cut
(20:06):
a little bit more again, Ian, you have to wonder
what that does for his cardio and having a cardio
problem against the shoot the box guy. It doesn't get
much worse than that. Like, that's the worst game plan.
Speaker 3 (20:16):
Ever, Nazak Hosparot is about a two dollars betting a
favorite right now against Jamie Malarkey the Australian Here Jamie
right now plus a dollar seventy lean and again towards
Hosparrott here we know Milwarkeie. He likes to stand in trade.
Sometimes it doesn't always work out to his advantage.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
Man, it sounds like we did pre production on this
because your cherry picked every single dog I like on
this card. Just just spoiler there take pretty much favorites
on almost every single other five. I got one more dog.
I like it, right, But Jamie Malarkey is an underdog.
I like here because he's turned into a guy who's
put together a really great game plan. People have had
problems with his chin in the past, and I understand that,
right He's obviously had some issues with getting knocked out.
(20:52):
He got knocked out by a newcomer not that long
ago in ban Does that throw off warning lights? But
now with throughout hot process has an eleven fight UF
career and he's got one knockout and that knockout happened
five years ago and at Fight Night headlined by Robbie Lawler.
So if that's the last time we've seen Nazra Hokpross
knock somebody out, I don't worry about him as a
knockout threat against Jamie Malarkey, especially this like new safe
(21:16):
version of Jamie Mlarkey. Right, Like we've seen him do
kind of the smart game plan and stay away from
the big bombs and like, and now he's also being
more active, and I think that's better for him. Right,
he's fought four times in this calendar year. That is
an incredible thing for him, because before he was like
one or two a year. Ever, So the fact that
he's getting out there more, the fact that he's getting
an opportunity to fight a little bit more, I think
(21:37):
it's gonna bode well for him. But we're gonna see
a good game plan here.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
Only have about it minutes ago made event. I got
to ask you, Chris Gutierre is big underdog?
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Hear?
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Is that the last dog that you actually like?
Speaker 3 (21:46):
At plus three dollars or do you think it's all
one way traffic with sawing it down?
Speaker 5 (21:49):
I this is the last one I like. I will
say I love the number here more than I like
the talent, while I love Chris Gutierrez. If you told
me Gunny in my head had to pick a winner here,
you're going song you dog right. You don't go against
the negative three fifty favorite if it was a pick him.
But with that being said, I think Chris Gutierrez is
being wildly undervalue plus three hundred For a guy who
rips the legs as much as he does, he can
(22:10):
hurt somebody and make a five round fight really difficult,
despite the fact he has a fave very many five
round fights. Sonia Dong also sits down on his punches.
He is a target for a guy who can land
a whole bunch of leg kicks. Gutierrez might be the
worst thing for him, But at the bottom line is
plus three hundred is just too much value on Gutierrez
to pass up.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Amp Dogger pass is what it feels like there with Gutierrez.
Speaker 2 (22:31):
Dan always appreciate the time.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
My friend will catch up with you again next week.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Gonna go to Washington DC. Next, catch up.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
With Reegon, come on back, first strike right here on
these and these sports betting new.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
College Bowl season is upon us.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
If Vson has an early Christmas present for you, not
a recent pres subscriber yet, well no problem. We're giving
away this year's College bull Betting Guide to everybody. We've
got spreads, totals, expert picks from the Golicks, Steve mckinn
and Brent Musburger for every single bowl game.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
So put a bow in this bowl season.
Speaker 3 (23:29):
Get a free copy of your Vson College Football Bowl
Betting Guide, absolutely free. Visit vson dot com Slash Bowl
Guide and get your free copy today. How about that,
Let's go to Washington, DC, catch up with our guy
or Reid Coud. You can follow him as I do
on X at Fight Nomics read. Great to have you
back on the program. My friend got to ask you
(23:49):
very quickly, just your thoughts of what you saw last
week with the models, because I'm looking at Sarukian and
I did not see him running through a.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Guy like Benil Darius. What'd you make of that main event?
Speaker 6 (24:02):
Yeah, it was a dominant victory, and it was one
of those things where I'm seeing a high price tag,
but the model's coming in so strong that I'm still
doubling down on that.
Speaker 7 (24:10):
So that was something I don't always see.
Speaker 6 (24:12):
So I got to know that there was something in
that data that really favored one guy over the other.
And I was talking with Dean Thomas about it actually,
and he pointed out, he said, listen, Benil's had a
great run, but he may be over that hump, you know,
that run maybe over, whereas Serukin is still getting better,
he's younger, he's still on the up. So it's just
two guys going different directions that met in the main event.
(24:33):
So I was happy with the outcome. Sarukeen is definitely
a force to be reckoned with.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
And see, that's why I brought that up, because your
data sometimes people get scared away when they see these
big favorites. They go, oh, my goodness, I don't want
to lay this much. And you're saying, well, there still
was value in Serukian's side. You look at the main
event here with song you don a massive favorite against
Chris Crutierrez. And again, I think the natural proclivity sometimes
is say dogg or pass because goots is plus three dollars.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
But what are the models.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
I'm showing you a song you Doong against six years
the junior, and I know the models really take that
type of thing into account.
Speaker 6 (25:07):
Yeah, this is one where we're not seeing as much
value in the current price. It is a steep price
to pay for song. Kutas has arguably crisper hands when
it comes to just the metrics. Offensively, defensively, he doesn't
get hit very much. He has very good accuracy. His
power rating is technically higher, and this is a fight
that should take place mostly on the feet. And when
(25:29):
you look at all those things and I'm looking at
this steep price for song, I'm wondering maybe this is
a stab at Guta's. But I think when I go
a little bit deeper at the resume, I am way
more impressed by the resume of Yadong song, and so
that gives me a little.
Speaker 7 (25:44):
Bit more motivation to say, all, he's still worth.
Speaker 6 (25:47):
A parlay or something like that, but at moneyline prices,
I am probably going to pass on this one just
based on the metrics.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
You know, read it, and I don't know if the
models have shown anything here, but you know, all these
rates for KOs and the like, if the fight does
stay standing, we're seeing right now three and a half
rounds is where this is priced juiced heavily right now
about mon style already five to the over if it
does stay standing, do you see.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
Finishing potential here?
Speaker 3 (26:12):
From certainly on the Udong side would be the one
that kind of takes center stage.
Speaker 7 (26:17):
Yeah, think of it at baseline.
Speaker 6 (26:19):
About half of fights will end inside the distance, and
the majority of those that finish inside the distance are
going to be striking finishes.
Speaker 7 (26:26):
So in terms of if you were.
Speaker 6 (26:27):
Just flipping a coin between two random fighters in the UFC,
you would say, in a five round fight, juice to
the over mix. Probably it's roughly accurate here. Combine that
with two guys with very good offensive metrics but also
very good defensive metrics. Neither one of these guys has
really been exploited on the feet and striking, and so
if they get into a stand up duel, it's hard
(26:49):
to know if someone's really going to go down that easy.
I might set the bar a little lower, like one
point five and go over that way, you know, song
over one point you know, a single game parlay type
of situation, that might be the way to go here.
But it's defensively, they haven't really been damaged, and that's
what makes me think they're.
Speaker 7 (27:08):
Going to put up a good fight and no one's
going to go down easy.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Very fascinating there by the way, you know, if you
like him by kot kra DQ, it's plus a dollar
twenty to win by finish just inside the distance there
minus a dollar ten. So some different numbers there if
you don't want to weigh those big price tags that
you are alluding to read. But another one that's a
big favorite here is a guy that I'm always intrigued
to watch now the young sensation out of Japan to
Tetsuro a Tyra and another massive favorite, one of the
(27:33):
biggest ones, if not the biggest one right now on
the card over.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
A five dollar betting favorite.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
What are the numbers showing you with Tetsuro Tyra, because again,
while Dynamics sometimes seems like he struggles to get guys
out of there, yeah that.
Speaker 6 (27:47):
But that won't really matter. I mean, he's definitely on
a path to victory here. This is some of the
most dominant wrestling metrics I've seen lately. So you know,
throw back to Seruki in another situation, very street Steve Price,
but this time we are justifying it with the data
because Hernandez has average takedown defense at best, and so
(28:08):
Tyra is eventually going to get this to the floor.
I see it helps that he's a little bit bigger
and ranger ranger at least to end younger as well,
so he shouldn't fade very quickly. He's very young. So
it's the dominant wrestling. This is very dominant wrestling. These
metrics don't normally see that type of attack. He's attempting
takedowns at a furious pace. He doesn't spend more than
(28:30):
like forty five to fifty seconds at a distance with
anybody before attempting at least one takedown, so you got
to think he's going to get it down quick. And
Hernandez doesn't really show the ground control to stand up
to that. So yeah, Tyra is probably one of your
parlay anchors for everything. I would be shocked if he
took any risks on the feet. I think he gets
it to the floor early, and maybe he gets a
(28:52):
finish because his submissions also come at a furious rate.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
So maybe even look for Tyra inside the distance there
instead of laying that five thirty five, the second is
favorite on the card, but I love that the data
points say that he should be that big a favorite.
Let's get to some dogs potentially that you like that
the data is showing that could be live and one
of them right now that that feels like it's an
interesting price point because it's dropped a lot. Is Andre
Muknees against the iron Turtle here and Park right now?
(29:17):
The numbers come down as the week's going on, What
is the Why is the data pointing to the Andre
side here that maybe here at plus money he's still valuable.
Speaker 6 (29:28):
Yeah, I see these guys matching up very evenly on
the feet give or take, you know their You know,
Munas is actually a lot bigger, which helps him in
this matchup because his defense is also good.
Speaker 7 (29:41):
So it just tells me that for every given.
Speaker 6 (29:43):
Exchange, it's probably going to be Munas either not taking
much damage or at least landing some of his own
with that extra range.
Speaker 7 (29:50):
And so then we got to go to the ground game.
Speaker 6 (29:51):
Well, it's actually Munas that is more likely to initiate takedowns.
They have equivalent ground control time. I mean, maybe Park
has a little bit better because he hasn't faced a.
Speaker 7 (30:00):
Lot of wrestlers.
Speaker 6 (30:01):
But yeah, I'm seeing enough on the side of mune
Is that says this is a very close matchup. Disappointed
the price has come down here, the return has come down.
It's one of those situations, you know, I got to
sit here and bite my nails until weighans before I
really pull. But yeah, I do see upset potential, and
I don't expect the price to change as much where
(30:22):
I would lose.
Speaker 7 (30:23):
A bet here. I think eventually I will be pulling
on Munis.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
Right now is still plus a dollar fifty.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
But you're right, that was over two dollars not that
long ago, so some money certainly has come in on
the Andre side here. Another fighter that's always intriguing is
Jamie Mlarky, and sometimes you don't want to play him
as a big favorite, and now you get him as
an underdog here. I'm seeing plus a dour seventy right
now against Nazrak.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Cosparat Hotspratt is.
Speaker 3 (30:47):
Yeah, we're seeing him just over two dollars betting favorite
here at two five. Why is the data leaning possibly
to the Australian.
Speaker 6 (30:55):
Yeah, Malarkey's a tricky guy and there is some He
is top of mind for me because I was analyzing
him quite a bit for the last matchup where Macdessi
arguably got the better of him on the feet, and
hopefully Malarkey learned from that fight he had a very
close split decision or a close decision with Macdessi.
Speaker 7 (31:13):
Back in his home country.
Speaker 6 (31:14):
Malarkey's out in open water now the judges hopefully are
calling it the way it is.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
Oh, I think we just lost reed, so we'll have
to try to get his connection back if we can.
But yeah, the data points are proving right now that
Malarkey at plus a dollar seventy there could be some
real value there against this fight against Nazark Hosparat. And
again we talked about this a little while ago, and
I thought Dan Riolan did a great job of breaking
this down. Really not a power guy here with hosprot
(31:42):
So if he can't get the fight down to the
ground and it does stay on the feet, that's where
Malarkey could really be live.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
And I believe we read we have your connection back.
Speaker 3 (31:50):
But again the data points are showing that Malarkey is
live here at plus a dollar seventy correct, Yeah, I.
Speaker 6 (31:55):
Do think it is closer than what the prices imply.
I think malarkeyefully learned from that last fight with mcdeski
and takes it to the ground sooner.
Speaker 7 (32:03):
He does have a grappling advantage.
Speaker 6 (32:05):
He has shown good ground control when he uses it,
and so that's I think a situation where that could
help him against Nasrat because Nazrat actually has very crisp
looking hands and has scored a lot more knockdown. So
if Malarkey is smart, I think he gets it down.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
He gets it down earlier, all right, I got it
ninety seconds to go here.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
Speaking of styles that make fights, we know that the
Lionheart wants to get the fight down to the ground.
We know Clil Rowntree wanted to keep this fight standing
in a distance.
Speaker 5 (32:30):
Here.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
If Smith gets those takedowns, you got to think he's
live correct.
Speaker 6 (32:35):
Oh absolutely, Khalil Rowntree has never actually landed a takedown
in his entire UFC career over one hundred and seven
minutes of cage time, so you know he doesn't want
to go there, especially with Anthony Smith. And Anthony Smith
is one of those guys. If he can weather the
early storm, he's got that lionheart spirit, he comes back late,
he wraps you up. He maybe gets a submission at
(32:55):
the end. And so that's the scenario if that's the
scenario I'm hoping for, if I'm going to be backing
the dog here. But he has to survive early because
Khalil Rountree hits like a truck. His knockdown rate is
arguably the best on this entire card. So Anthony Smith
needs to be on his toes, avoid that damage, get
it down early.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
That's where I like him for the upset so very
quickly here.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Correlated to play right, it would be Smith in the
over if you're looking at it, Roundtree in the under.
Speaker 6 (33:23):
Yeah, And either way, there's a lot of finishing potential
on both sides here, So fight does not go the distance,
might be a safe parlay anchor to combine with the
Terra or maybe a you don't song.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
Well, absolutely love it there he is. Everybody give him
a follow on X at Fight Nomics. The one and
only read kun let me come back. We're going to
Chicago to catch up with Jordan sure with. That is
next First strike here.
Speaker 2 (33:43):
On Decent these Sportsbuddy Network.
Speaker 3 (34:13):
We roll on this edition of First Striking. Go to
Chicago to catch up with our guy Jordan.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
Sure what.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
You can follow him on X as I do at
Wood on ESPN one thousand and Jordan, I will say
that our producer Extraordinary Britain has pointed out, you do
have kind of a cark tent looking vibe going today
with the window and the city behind you. You don't
do that on the like. You don't put on a
cape and save lives, do you.
Speaker 8 (34:36):
No, I don't save lives and I definitely don't put
on a cape if you see some of my picks.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
At times, whether it's the NFL or Mixed Martial Arts.
Speaker 8 (34:45):
But I appreciate the compliment, and of course I got
sweetness in the background.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
That's the most.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
Important, greatest running back of all time, right there, Walter Payton, everybody,
all right, let's get to this card here, Jordan, get
your thoughts on this and again the main event. I
got some interesting viewpoints here from our panel of guest today.
Song You Dong obviously a massive favorite against gouts here
and Chris Gutierrez.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Gudierra's plus three dollars.
Speaker 3 (35:08):
Again looking at the price points too, even on the
total at three and a half, choosed heavily to the
over minus is now eighty five.
Speaker 2 (35:14):
Is this a quicker fight or is this.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
A fight that you think Gutierras can extend against Song
You Dong.
Speaker 8 (35:20):
I think he can extend this fight because he's going
to come out and look to establish kind of a
distance and also to establish those leg kicks that he's
very well known for, and he's going to look the
counter strike. So he's gonna maybe ask you know, song
you Dong to lead the dance, and that's right up
you Dong's alley, because I feel like you Dong.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Oh are in his face.
Speaker 8 (35:45):
You know, Corey Sanhagen comes to mind the controversial fight
with Marlon vera guy that's a pressure it could be
a pressure fighter at.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
Times as well.
Speaker 8 (35:51):
So I think this is an ideal stylistic matchup for
Song You Dong, not having to worry about the takedowns.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
But I also believe it.
Speaker 8 (35:58):
Look, we saw song you don go five hard rounds
and then stop Ricky Simone his last time out, he
went four hour rounds and it was a bludgering, but
he did go four rounds with Corey Sanding, and so
I think Song Young is extremely comfortable taking this into
deep waters. And I think that actually has to play
be the play. I think you have to get cute
with the odds and maybe, like you know, take song,
(36:21):
you on to win the fight round three to start
to add a little bit more value, because I'm not confident,
you know, Dave either way, if you Doong's going to
get to finish or he's going to be successful on
the judge's scorecards. So I'd be more confident in playing
a little bit to the round and winner prop And
I obviously do believe you Doong is going to win
the fight.
Speaker 3 (36:39):
Yeah, it's always interesting to me too, because again, your
Dong's got five round experience made of experience, where Gudierras
really does not so very interesting if he's never really
go to that to those waters, if he does take
it there, what would he have left arguably in those
championship rounds in four and five. But I'm with you
on the you donk side. This is interesting because the
iron Turtle here number has come down as the week
(37:02):
has gone on against her muneeze here and right now
I'm seeing Park at about let's see minus an dollar
eighty here at munies plus a dollar fifty.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
What do you make of this line move. That a
lot of money coming in on Andre.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
Yeah, and look I get it.
Speaker 8 (37:16):
I mean look, outside of his his two fight losing streak,
the guy is a wizard on the ground. He looked
like he was certainly going to be a threat, you know,
in the middleweight division, and with his ability to get
those submissions kind of out of nowhere. And plus the
fact too, even though I love the Iron Turtle, I've
passed a lot of times on him and his pressure game.
(37:36):
It's top game. It's very good. You know, he has
been submitted, We've seen.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
Okay, I think we lost Jordan there.
Speaker 8 (37:45):
Maybe he's not not as well.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
Am I still here?
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Yeah? Now you have, we got you back, Jordan.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
Okay, Okay.
Speaker 8 (37:51):
So what I was saying is, look, you know we've
seen Andre Muniaz. We know what he could do from
the submission game, and the Iron Turtle has been submitted before.
But of late, I think that we've seen like the
best that we're going to see out of Muniaz, and
we've seen what when when pressure gets to him, top
game gets to him. I favor the Iron Turtle in
that standpoint. So I love the fact that Iron Turtle
(38:12):
is what tw twenty five to twenty earlier in the week.
Now he's down to a dollar eighty. I get the
risks that that the Iron Turtle is gonna face considering
he's gonna probably want to put Mounia on his Munha's
on his back and he's.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Very comfortable there.
Speaker 8 (38:25):
But if this price continues to tweak down to dollar fifty,
I'm all in on the Iron Turtle.
Speaker 1 (38:31):
I like his game.
Speaker 8 (38:32):
I think he's got enough of the pressure game, the
top game to get Andre out of there.
Speaker 2 (38:35):
And again, so you're gonna wait is.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
When I'm picking up right, You're just gonna keep waiting
on Park for this number to come down, because if
you think there's more Immuni's money to come in, maybe
get this price point down to where you're looking at.
Speaker 2 (38:46):
About a dollar fifty is what you're aiming for.
Speaker 8 (38:49):
Yeah, I think that that that's appropriate. So I don't
I don't disrespect people. I know there's a fellow colleagues
of mine on this show that have picked Muniz think
he's gonna.
Speaker 1 (38:58):
Win and jump at the price early on.
Speaker 8 (39:00):
But I'm going to wait and see and hopefully Park
continues to trend down. And that's a guy that I'm
going to play late because again, I've seen a lot
of success from him throughout his career.
Speaker 3 (39:09):
You know one guy that I think we're all in
unison on is Tetsuara Tyra, and he is a dynamo
here and somebody. You're not going to see him on
the undercards very often. Here the second fight of the night,
but that's where he finds himself here against Carlos Hernandez,
and Tyra is the second biggest betting favorite here at
minus five thirty five.
Speaker 2 (39:26):
The number feels like it's going up. What do you
make of Tyra?
Speaker 3 (39:30):
And is there a better way to play it than
obviously laying over a five dollar price tag?
Speaker 8 (39:34):
Yeah, I mean, look, the five dollar price tag, even
a parlay too risky for me.
Speaker 1 (39:38):
And I understand why the values coming in.
Speaker 8 (39:40):
I mean ESPN just had a list of their potential
future champions and he was listed as one of them
at Flyway and that's because you're right.
Speaker 1 (39:47):
He's a dynamo.
Speaker 8 (39:48):
He's well versed, he's explosive, he's long for the division,
and he's got great submissions. And we saw Carlos Hernandez
to come to a nasamento submission two fights ago, so
we know, he struggles with those longer eyes that are
going to look.
Speaker 1 (40:01):
To take them.
Speaker 8 (40:01):
So for me, it's it's tyra via submission. If you
can get it, maybe even you know, tyra via submission
rounds one or two even add a little bit of
further value to that. But I think, yeah, Tyra, this
is a showcase fight because you got to remember this
fight card was supposed to be in China, so it's
supposed to feature a lot of these Pacific you know fighters. Certainly, yeah,
it's a risk that they have to change up their travel,
(40:23):
come overseas and fight in Vegas. But there's there's there's
a couple of these fights that were showcase fight for fighters,
and I certainly believe Sarah Tyro is going to be
one of them.
Speaker 3 (40:31):
And Jordan very quickly you mentioned that that maybe the
round prop you do it for Tyra via sub is
that what you look at for rounds one and two.
Speaker 1 (40:38):
Sub in round one or via sub in round two.
Speaker 8 (40:40):
I think, yeah, he's going to come out explosive, look
to get Hernandez very quickly out of there established himself
as a true fire contender at Flyway.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
It feels like he is the next right now, possibly
at that division at one hundred and twenty five pounds.
Let's talk about Tim Elliott, because this is a guy
that we know can have absolutely wild exchanges on the
ground and against Suma Jerry.
Speaker 2 (41:01):
This is interesting here.
Speaker 3 (41:03):
Elliott right now is a minus a dour eighty. Suma
Jerry's plus a dollar fifty. We swam Jery in one
of the best fights you're ever going to see here
in defeat. What do you make of Elliott now here
at minus a dollar eighty.
Speaker 8 (41:14):
Yeah, I shake my head because I was on some
Jerry and then Danger Snell spoiled that happen, and look,
I don't know how he did it, but he did it. Uh.
And Suma Jerry, look, he thumps, he's got power. And actually,
even though he was you know, I think I would
have been disrespected in the line against Nosslemento, I was
going to probably play some Suma Jerry.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
I'm probably gonna play Tim Elliott. Now. Tim Elliott looking
to bounce back.
Speaker 8 (41:37):
He had a wind that was tucked in his back pocket,
and then he succumbs to a submission late in the
third round his last fight out.
Speaker 1 (41:44):
But the way that he scrambles and that his pressure game.
Speaker 8 (41:46):
In fact, he just keeps coming after you, and his
ability to get those scrambles I think is gonna you know, uh,
wore some of Jerry out. Plus the fact too, you know,
Tim Elliott has got a pretty good chim and I
know he's getting up there in age and it's probably surprising. Well,
even though he doesn't have to do it, this is
not a flyweight fight. It's a fight that's being at
a catchway fight.
Speaker 1 (42:05):
So good for him.
Speaker 8 (42:05):
He doesn't have to make that drastic weight cut to
make the weight taking this fight on five days notes,
but he's a difficult guy to prepare for. His scrambles
are going to be difficult. So I like a little
bit of a flyer if you will on Tim Elliott
taking this fight on short notice to spoil Summa Jerry.
Speaker 3 (42:20):
You know that's interesting that you mentioned that Elliott had
a fight that he feels like he should have won
until he got caught late Summa Jerry. I don't know
how many times I think it went back and counted.
I thought he had match Schnell out five different times.
Speaker 8 (42:32):
Five different times. It's same, like thirty seconds.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
It was crazy. And look, but here's the thing too,
Like who has Suma.
Speaker 8 (42:39):
Jerry lost to He'd lost the guys that were crazy scramblers,
Louis Smolka and Matt Snell. Tim Elliott is a crazy scrambler,
doesn't have obviously the length that those two guys might have.
But I like Tim Elliott coming in here short notice
spoiling Suma Jerry, which is unfortunately because I'm big on
Suma Jerry. I wanted to cash on him and Schnell
(42:59):
and was going to look to play him as I
mentioned against Noncmento.
Speaker 3 (43:02):
All right, so that should be a wild another wild
exchange coming here between Suma Jerry and Tim tim Elliott.
I do want to ask you very quickly about the
co main event here, because it's a stylistic matchup. When
you look at Lioneheart Smith against Cleil Rowntree Junior, we
know Khalil wants to stand, use leg kicks and strike
and keep this fight on the outside. Anthony Smith has
got to shorten that distance and try to get the
(43:22):
fight down to the ground.
Speaker 2 (43:23):
Have you handicapped either way?
Speaker 3 (43:25):
That if, because if Smith can't get this fight down
to the ground, he doesn't have a real good puncher's
chance of punching with Clil Rowntree.
Speaker 8 (43:32):
Correct, Yeah, I don't want to stand in trade with
Khalil Rowntree. That dude, that dude is just one of
the scariest guys to look at. I mean, he just
stands their stoic. Didn't this line flip like I think
if I if I recall, so, I don't know where
Anthony Smith is. I don't know if he's one foot
in one foot out. I mean I've felt that way
(43:52):
since he had that home invasion incident right back when
and then lost to go over to Share in the
fifth round of what was essentially oliminary. But then he
bounces back and looks great in a.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
Couple of fights.
Speaker 8 (44:02):
So I'll say this, I think I think we're getting
a finish in this fight. I do believe even though
Smith has gone. I think the judges score cards two
the last three times they were getting a finish.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
But I'm not going to.
Speaker 8 (44:13):
Play either side because it's too big of a risk
for Roundtree at two forty five. But I just don't
know what kind of fighter Smith is or what.
Speaker 1 (44:19):
He has left. But I'll take he's savvy enough.
Speaker 8 (44:22):
To spoil Coyle Rowntree on short notice, So I'll just
sit back Lex enjoy it, but play the under on
this one.
Speaker 2 (44:29):
There is everybody the Clark Kent of Chicago.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
Jordan Sherwood, appreciate you as always.
Speaker 2 (44:35):
My friend.
Speaker 3 (44:35):
Want to thank all of our guests for joining us
today and of course Robin Raino Brittain has doing a
great job behind the glass.
Speaker 2 (44:40):
Cast some tickets. We'll see you next week. Right here,
first strike on decent
Hell.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Welcome to this edition of First Strike.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Dave Ross here at Circus Sportsbook and Fabulous Las Vegas
breaking down Songy Dong against Chris Gutierrez.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
In the main event here on Saturday night.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Got a great crew Loof and Akaro standing by Dan Rieland,
Riedkoon and Jordan Sherwood. But before we look ahead, let's
look back to what we saw at UFC Fight Night,
and wow, if we did not think that Arburn Sarukin
had arrived, we know he is there now. An absolute
demolition of Nil Darryusch in the very first round. Also
a demolition of Jayalen Turner In Bobby Green in the
(00:46):
co main event. But Sarrukian moving up the ranks now
at one point fifty five potentially could have a championship
bout coming up against us On Markachev. Not that far
out into the future. Let's bring in the man you
can follow on at Gamblu. He is Lufin Nikara, the
host of About Business podcast. Lou Great to have you
back on the program, My friend, Sometimes you gotta fight through.
(01:08):
You just go do a show. You go and put
your nose down in handicap fights. That's what you do.
I want to get to this card here and the
main event. When you look at Song You Dong against
Chris Gutierrez, and you can understand why I believe that.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Song You Dong is the favorite here.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Guliera is kind of some indifferent performances in recent outings here.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
But now main events, these guys are not known to
be in this role.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Does being in a main event, potentially a five round
fight change the way you handicap it?
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Right now?
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Chris Gutierrez plus three dollars as a big betting underdog.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
Well, Dave, first of all, thank you for having me
on love to share thoughts on my passion the fights.
In this particular fight, I would answer your question by saying, yeah,
it does make a difference when one fighter doesn't have
five round experience in one may. In this case, that's
what we have. In fact, we have Song coming right
(02:04):
off a five round dynamic performance finish of Ricky Simone,
who I regard as a top vandomweight fighter in that class.
So he comes with momentum, he's been in the main event,
he's gone five rounds, prepared for five rounds, and actually
we've seen Gutierrez. I don't want to say We've seen
(02:25):
him tire, but we've seen his output, which is an
eye to begin with, weighing a little bit in the
later rounds, and this is a huge opportunity for him.
While Song has been in with a much higher elite
caliber opponent, Gutierras is the more mature guy and maybe
(02:46):
the less well rounded fighter. His hands are going to
be full, but the opportunity is great for him. I
just think Songya Dong, though priced obtusely right now, should
be a pretty and we're.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Seeing here right now three and a half rounds juice
to the over a dollar eighty five here, so we
are expecting this one to go deep, potentially into those
quote unquote championship rounds of rounds four and five at
least in this main event here. And you're right, gudier
Is may not tire, but he does wane a little bit.
Do you think that song you Don tries to do
like a Ricky Simone performance here and get him out early,
(03:22):
or do you think the Gutieers can be a little
bit wiley as a veteran here six years the senior
of Song you Don and try to take this into
a deeper round.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
David, you can answer that. For me, I'll go run
to the window right now.
Speaker 5 (03:35):
But I get you.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
It is to me the question in this fight is
how is Gudier is going to handle the championship rounds.
I think, Song, you dong, if he can finish simone,
you can surely finish Gudierra's. Gudier's leg kicks will be
in effect a jab to try and keep your dong
off of him. But I see this as chopping wood
(03:59):
for you, and I think he's gonna chop the tree
down sometime in four or five. I like you dong
inside the distance somehow, all.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
Right, that's to win by finish there minus a dollar ten.
So instead of laying that big price tag, I see
exactly what Lo's doing there and knock that number down
to minus a dollar ten instead of playing that big
price tag. In the co main event, you've got Lineheart
back in there, Anthony Smith Smith against Clil Rowntree Junior.
And what's interesting here is you look at Khalil, who's
(04:27):
we know how dynamic a striker he can be, and
we know Anthony Winehart Smith no onely wants to wrestle, right,
So you got that contrast and styles here Khalil is
a big favorite here minus.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Two forty five.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
If Anthony can get that wrestling going, do you think
he's live as a dog.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
Anthony will be live as a dog provided he gets
his ground game going. He must get this fight to
the ground. And when you look at who round Trees fought,
he hasn't really fought wrestlers that have really even Duriev
was Duriev was really that just trying to throw fire.
(05:05):
I think that Roundtree, his speed, his power, and his
explosion are going to be really tough for Smith to handle,
especially understanding Smith did not have a camp. He's just
jumping in here in short notice. Oh yeah, these guys
stay in shape all the time. But Anthony Smith doing podcasts,
(05:28):
doing TV for the UFC. Meanwhile, Roundtree, a guy that
struggled mentally, has seemed to have aralled some of those
demons and is channeling that in a positive fashion. I
think this is a tough fight for Smith. If it
stays standing, I don't think Smith survives. And if it
goes to the ground, I don't think Roundtree survives. At
(05:50):
the key to the fight will be can Smith get
Roundtree to the ground, And I'm I'll be fascinated to
see if that can happen.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Absolutely, it seems to be one way traffic is day's
standing advantage, big eventage for Khalil Rountree if it gets
to the ground, like you mentioned, that's where the dog
would be in play. Here for Anthony Smith, one of
my favorite nicknames on this cart, and I know you've
got to lean on it. And you give this out
in the sneak Teep, I want to talk to people
about that.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Tell him about it.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
He got the iron turtle back in there against Andre Muineze.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Is this one of the sneak teeps that you've already
given out.
Speaker 4 (06:21):
Yeah, this is a position that was discussed in the
sneak Teep. And what I tried to do, Dave. The
sneak Teep is an opening line report that I've been
doing for the last couple of months, just getting an
early look at where the lines move. And I tried
moonees open you was plus two and a quarter and
I immediately jumped all over and I said nothing because
(06:42):
I wanted that two and a quarter to be around
for sneak Teep. And by the time it got around
it was now plus one eighty on the Moonee side. Yes,
I'm all about Moone's here. His credibility and value as
down as it can be after he fought two world
class grappler in Allen and Craig, and now he gets
(07:03):
a guy that comes in and I don't want to
take anything from the Turtle. He's got a winning UFC record,
He's won his last four fights. But and I mentioned
Duryev earlier, he's the Turtles, the guy that bought Durryev.
Durryev is a striker and doesn't really try and wrestle
Tweelan Holmes Anders. Moonize has beaten Anders as well. Moonize's size,
(07:29):
the fact that he's desperate and fighting for his job.
I just think I don't want to say the wrong
man's favorite. But I said at the time that this
fight goes off with the Turtle maybe minus one forty
minus one forty five. I think Moonize is all kinds
alive here. I've already released him at a high price,
any dog price at a buck fifty or better. On Moonize,
(07:51):
I would try and gobble up now.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
And I think the price will come down after they
watch that again and that they've checked out your sneak teep.
They got a much better number than you're gonna get now.
Andre Munize now down to plus a dour fifty. I
know you've got another lean on, Kevin. You set against
kanan'san song right now plus a dour twenty Kevin a
small favorite here minus a doar forty. What's the sneak
that you have on this one?
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (08:14):
My angle here is song, the different song. Kinnan relatively inconsistent,
but he's been in with He's got the experience factor.
He's been in with good fighters, and he showed all
of us a lot in his fight against Ian Gary,
and so when he's got it going, he's a striker
and he's got some power in his hands. The issue
(08:39):
is is he can be dynamically inconsistent. Now he draws
a guy that's going to be a couple of two
three inches taller than him. He's a Frenchman fighting out
of city kickboxing. The key to you set is the
fact that he's a grappler, and so he's not going
to want to spend too much time standing with song.
(09:00):
He's gonna want to get this thing into the slow dance,
then against the fence, then on the ground for advantage,
and I think he's gonna be able to find his
way in doing that. It's going to take a while.
This is going to be a tight fight because Song
has plenty of experience and heart. But I do like
the debuting fighter who, oh, by the way, opened at
one seventy and now is looking closer to the one forty.
(09:24):
I don't know if i'd take him yet. It's still dropping,
but I'm monitoring that very very closely because when it
gets to its lowest point and ticks a penny up,
that's when I'll jump. Would you on juicet?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Would you look at you set?
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Via decision here Lou knowing that it's going to take
some time here to get Song Kanan down to the
ground and eventually utilize that grappling because if you like that,
you can get right now.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
It's plus an hour forty here on you set. If
you if you like that side.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
Yeah, I'm going to play it, say if you know
I never like a negative side. So is jew Set
potentially a parlay piece, Yes, because I just like to
put a unit out yep. But I'm not going to
get too cute with him. He is the guy that's
giving away experience and UFC a UFC experience, So I'll
(10:15):
be diligent, but I do like as you set based
on the fact that that price is coming down now,
that's because the market likes song and they believe his
experience means something. So you're going to have to weigh
that as you will.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
And by the way you said, I this smoke, he's
plus two fifty to win via decision if you think
it's going to hit the cards there.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
But I'm definitely picking up what you're putting down. We've
got about sixty seconds to go.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Tell the people about the Bout Business podcast each and
every week, Lou, and what they get when they what
they get when they listen in the.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
Bout Business podcast breaks each week, there's a UFC card
right after the way ends occur. I wait that long
to make sure that I have all the data I
need to feel good about releasing everything. I bet I release.
It's on the podcast. It drops every Friday. There's a
UFC card and Dave, thanks so much for letting me
be on. I can't wait to watch the other three
(11:06):
capers today with their input and good luck to everybody
at the fights.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
Absolutely, Lou, I think one of the best things that
you do, and this is why you should follow him
at Gamblu as I do.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
When those weighings come out on Friday.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
You're always all over those and give us the live
updates as you see what's happening with those fighters as
they try to make way.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
We'll appreciate you as always, my friend.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
When we come back, we're shipping up to Boston to
catch up with Dan Rieland. He is coming up next
here on First Strike on vcent these Sports Betty Network.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Become a VSENT Pro subscriber today.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
You get a daily email recapping all the best bets
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Speaker 2 (12:10):
Host and guests.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
You're gonna get unlimited access to our vson dot Com
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(12:33):
shipping up to Boston and catch up with our guy, Gumbyvireelin.
That's how you follow him as I do on X
Dan Rulin. Of course, he's a writer at gambling podcast
Cage Side Press, host of Top Turtle, MMA, SGP N,
MMA PI. He's all over the platform people, and it's great.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
To have him back.
Speaker 5 (12:49):
Dan.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
I gotta ask you something now.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
You're not as old as I am, but I am
a die hard Metropolitan fan. And when the Mets beat
the Red Sox in eighty six, you might not even
have been born yet.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
I was. I was not.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
You were not even born yet. Like we Mets fans.
We like you guys. Why do you hate the Mets?
Speaker 5 (13:08):
I mean you gotta remember big money spending. I don't
love especially in like old washed up Red Sox, like
mo Vaughn, Pedro Martinez. You gots just take You can
take Jason bay to like just watching anybody who you
like kind of love to watch in Boston go somewhere
else to die. A sad death is enough to taint
your taste.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
Yeah, we have the mova On experience at the end
of his days in New York as well, but at
least we have the cowboys in common.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
So that's a good thing.
Speaker 5 (13:33):
Dan.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
You know what I'm gonna ask you. I ask you
each and every week, and I love the answers here.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
The fight you can't wait to wager on, and the
fight you can't wait to watch.
Speaker 5 (13:41):
So I can't wait to watch Tim Elliott stepping out
short notice to fight Super dej I. You know, I
thought it was a fun fight with Alannasonmento versus Superderji,
But like Maderji's never an adult fight. You know, that
fight he had with Matt Schnell super exciting, and then
you're gonna put him in there with an absolute scramble
monster in tin Elliet. I think that that fight could
go either way. Haven't seen the lines on it yet,
(14:01):
so I think it, you know, like the line could
potentially be really interesting, especially with the short notice aspect
in there. But bottom line is, I'm just going to
enjoy watching it.
Speaker 3 (14:09):
By the way, very quickly, Dan, it is right now
Sumer Jerry's plus a dollar fifty against Tim Elliott minus
a dollar eighty.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
I know feels at little steep on the Elliott side.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
I mean, I think we all respect the grappling and
how these exchanges could go, but you're right, that was
that was fight of the decade, potentially sumajery unbelievable fight here.
Are you tempted at the plus price tag there of
Suma Jerry?
Speaker 2 (14:29):
Oh?
Speaker 5 (14:29):
Definitely yeah. I thought this is going to be a
pick him or even tim Elliott is a slight dog,
and I might have might have been interested in tim
Ellien is a slight dog, but like super deg was
doing fine with the grappling of Matt Schnell, who I
think is you know, probably right now on par with
tim Elliott. So if you're telling me I'm getting one
and a half on on Super DEG, I think you
got to pull the trigger on that one. And it's
a card I don't love a lot of dogs in
(14:49):
this card, so even more reason for me to like
Wdergi here.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
All right, So the fight that you can't wait to
watch is that fight.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
But the fight you can't wait to wager on where
you think you still have a good number?
Speaker 2 (14:59):
What do you like?
Speaker 5 (15:00):
Hyantos Santos is a fighter who I've had my eye
on since she was on Contender Series. I kind of
wrote her off after her Contender Series fight, but she
fought it all the way up at flyweight and now
she's fighting. She actually fought at Adam Wait shortly there
after that won the Invicta title at Adam Way. Obviously
the USC doesn't have Adam weight, so we see her
now in between at Strawwaight. I think she finds a
good spot here because she's fighting to Leah Allenkarr, who
(15:22):
was on the Contender series as well, wound up in
a draw. But really the big sell on her and
why she didn't earn a contract right off the bat
was that outside of her grappling, she doesn't seem to
have anything that she can offer most strawweights in the UFC.
So I think with dol Santo is somebody who has
kind of dealt with grappling of better fighters, even than
to lead to Allen Carr. I think she's just gonna
(15:44):
piece her up on the feet, and the fact that
the line has stayed as close as it is makes
it really tempting on Dosantos.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
All right, So right now, minus the doar sixty six
for Dos Santos the very first fight of the night.
I think you know by now how compelled I am
to watch tetsuro Atyra every time he gets in the octagon,
another big favorite against Carlos Fernandez. The problem for me
is I don't know which way Tyra's going to get
to finish, whether it's going to be a sub or
a ground a pound here. What do you make a
Tira in this spot? Is the number two big here
(16:09):
at almost six dollars.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
I mean, it's too big to do anything except for
like throwing a parlay and try to juice up your
numbers a little bit, because you know, like that number
is really big and it's probably only going to get
bigger come fight time. Like if you're hearing this on Tuesday,
good for you. You can probably get it as low as
they'll ever be, because they'll probably be, you know, seven
hundred by the time we get to fight time. What
I do think is kind of intriguing about those fighter
is I think Garlos Hernandez is tough, and I think
(16:34):
you can almost make money off of the fact that
he is really tough, and he is sometimes hard to
put away and Tyra, you know, not that he has
been particularly bad at putting people away, but there have
been times where he's just been comfortable dominating a little
bit here and there. And I think that this is
a spot where if you look for the overs, I
think you're gonna find probably some money, even some value
(16:55):
on over one and a half because people think he's
going to get it done here in the first most likely.
And so I think if you look for the over
on one and a half or maybe even you just
look for a finish prop in the second or in
the third. That way you don't have to pick the
particular you know, like the sub or the KO. I
think you're gonna wind up with a little bit better
of ways to play this one.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
Yeah, there's no way, like you said, I'm not gonna
get interested in laying five thirty five as it's starting
to balloon now, even from five to twenty at the
beginning of the show, so it's already going up. Let's
stay in the undercard here with Luana Santos against Stephanie Egger.
We know how tough Edgar can be, but Santos right
now at minus a dollar fifty five any value on
the dog here.
Speaker 2 (17:31):
I know you're kind of leaning towards some favorites this week.
Speaker 5 (17:33):
Yeah, you actually found one of the few other dogs
that I actually like on this one. I like Stephanie
Egger Mjana Santos. I think her number is mostly baked
into the fact that she beat the crap out of
Juliana Miller, and I feel like we talked about this
last Yeah, I'm not all that impressed with people who
beat up Juliana Miller. It's not a selling point for me.
And she knocked her out. She knocked her out quick,
so props to her there. But I've seen some of
(17:55):
her fights in the past, or fights back when she
was in an LFA on the regional scene, and as
the fight goes deeper and deeper and deeper, she actually
has a little bit of trouble with her gastang. She
looked really tired in the second round of that Jenna
Bishop fight, a fight she wound up losing by split decision.
And Jenna Bishop is kind of a grinder, somebody who
likes to wrestle. We've seen her in Bellator. I don't
think Stephaniegger is quite the grappler that she is. We've
(18:16):
seen her have some kind of spotty submission defense, but
I think it's better than a lot of the people
who Luana Santos has fought. Juana Santos has used a
lot of those key locks from scarfold to submit her opponents.
I don't think that's something she's gonna catch Stephaniegger in.
And it's a position that could potentially give up your
back in a lot of positions. So if Stephanie Egger
scrambles well, she makes Luana Santos work, I think we
(18:38):
could see her start to gain advantages in the second
and the third round here. I don't know that she
puts her away, but she might do enough where she
can win the second and third and steal this one
on the judges' scorecards.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
You know, we are supposed against Stevie Garcia against Melkie
Costa last week. We're gonna get to Garcia in Costa
this week, and we're seeing that Melkie is a wild man.
We know that big favorite here, almost a three dollar
betting favorite.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
You leaning towards the fave here.
Speaker 5 (19:01):
I think you have to, uh, because first of all,
I was already leaning to him, because I don't know
that Steve Garcia can take him down enough to win
the fight, you know, via decision that way, I don't
think anybody can knock out most of those guys from
Shoot to Box too, so that really eliminates just about
every you know, path to victory there for Steve Garcia,
and you know, like just the pace and pressure in
all that that Malki Costa brings is just really impressive.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
You know.
Speaker 5 (19:24):
I loved him on short notice in his debut against
Thiago Moyses. He looked great in that fight despite losing,
So I don't think Steve Garcia poses any real threat
to him. You also have to obviously handicap the fact
that Steve Garcia is the one who pulled out of
a fight last week after or leading into WAYNS. You
have to imagine that it was way in related because
if it was more significant than being way in related,
(19:45):
would he be fighting a week later. No, it was
probably a botchweight cut. He wasn't sweating the weight out correctly.
He wasn't, you know, holding water the way he was like,
there was something wrong with his way cut. Now we're
gonna bounce back a week and granted he's gonna go
up away class, so he has to cut less, but
going to put him through that process again, right, because
he's not coming in straight at one fifty five, He's
not cutting no weight anymore. He's gonna have to cut
(20:06):
a little bit more again, Ian, you have to wonder
what that does for his cardio and having a cardio
problem against the shoot the box guy. It doesn't get
much worse than that. Like, that's the worst game plan.
Speaker 3 (20:16):
Ever, Nazak Hosparot is about a two dollars betting a
favorite right now against Jamie Malarkey the Australian Here Jamie
right now plus a dollar seventy lean and again towards
Hosparrott here we know Milwarkeie. He likes to stand in trade.
Sometimes it doesn't always work out to his advantage.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
Man, it sounds like we did pre production on this
because your cherry picked every single dog I like on
this card. Just just spoiler there take pretty much favorites
on almost every single other five. I got one more dog.
I like it, right, But Jamie Malarkey is an underdog.
I like here because he's turned into a guy who's
put together a really great game plan. People have had
problems with his chin in the past, and I understand that,
right He's obviously had some issues with getting knocked out.
(20:52):
He got knocked out by a newcomer not that long
ago in ban Does that throw off warning lights? But
now with throughout hot process has an eleven fight UF
career and he's got one knockout and that knockout happened
five years ago and at Fight Night headlined by Robbie Lawler.
So if that's the last time we've seen Nazra Hokpross
knock somebody out, I don't worry about him as a
knockout threat against Jamie Malarkey, especially this like new safe
(21:16):
version of Jamie Mlarkey. Right, Like we've seen him do
kind of the smart game plan and stay away from
the big bombs and like, and now he's also being
more active, and I think that's better for him. Right,
he's fought four times in this calendar year. That is
an incredible thing for him, because before he was like
one or two a year. Ever, So the fact that
he's getting out there more, the fact that he's getting
an opportunity to fight a little bit more, I think
(21:37):
it's gonna bode well for him. But we're gonna see
a good game plan here.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
Only have about it minutes ago made event. I got
to ask you, Chris Gutierre is big underdog?
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Hear?
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Is that the last dog that you actually like?
Speaker 3 (21:46):
At plus three dollars or do you think it's all
one way traffic with sawing it down?
Speaker 5 (21:49):
I this is the last one I like. I will
say I love the number here more than I like
the talent, while I love Chris Gutierrez. If you told
me Gunny in my head had to pick a winner here,
you're going song you dog right. You don't go against
the negative three fifty favorite if it was a pick him.
But with that being said, I think Chris Gutierrez is
being wildly undervalue plus three hundred For a guy who
rips the legs as much as he does, he can
(22:10):
hurt somebody and make a five round fight really difficult,
despite the fact he has a fave very many five
round fights. Sonia Dong also sits down on his punches.
He is a target for a guy who can land
a whole bunch of leg kicks. Gutierrez might be the
worst thing for him, But at the bottom line is
plus three hundred is just too much value on Gutierrez
to pass up.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Amp Dogger pass is what it feels like there with Gutierrez.
Speaker 2 (22:31):
Dan always appreciate the time.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
My friend will catch up with you again next week.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Gonna go to Washington DC. Next, catch up.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
With Reegon, come on back, first strike right here on
these and these sports betting new.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
College Bowl season is upon us.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
If Vson has an early Christmas present for you, not
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Speaker 2 (23:27):
So put a bow in this bowl season.
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Get a free copy of your Vson College Football Bowl
Betting Guide, absolutely free. Visit vson dot com Slash Bowl
Guide and get your free copy today. How about that,
Let's go to Washington, DC, catch up with our guy
or Reid Coud. You can follow him as I do
on X at Fight Nomics read. Great to have you
back on the program. My friend got to ask you
(23:49):
very quickly, just your thoughts of what you saw last
week with the models, because I'm looking at Sarukian and
I did not see him running through a.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Guy like Benil Darius. What'd you make of that main event?
Speaker 6 (24:02):
Yeah, it was a dominant victory, and it was one
of those things where I'm seeing a high price tag,
but the model's coming in so strong that I'm still
doubling down on that.
Speaker 7 (24:10):
So that was something I don't always see.
Speaker 6 (24:12):
So I got to know that there was something in
that data that really favored one guy over the other.
And I was talking with Dean Thomas about it actually,
and he pointed out, he said, listen, Benil's had a
great run, but he may be over that hump, you know,
that run maybe over, whereas Serukin is still getting better,
he's younger, he's still on the up. So it's just
two guys going different directions that met in the main event.
(24:33):
So I was happy with the outcome. Sarukeen is definitely
a force to be reckoned with.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
And see, that's why I brought that up, because your
data sometimes people get scared away when they see these
big favorites. They go, oh, my goodness, I don't want
to lay this much. And you're saying, well, there still
was value in Serukian's side. You look at the main
event here with song you don a massive favorite against
Chris Crutierrez. And again, I think the natural proclivity sometimes
is say dogg or pass because goots is plus three dollars.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
But what are the models.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
I'm showing you a song you Doong against six years
the junior, and I know the models really take that
type of thing into account.
Speaker 6 (25:07):
Yeah, this is one where we're not seeing as much
value in the current price. It is a steep price
to pay for song. Kutas has arguably crisper hands when
it comes to just the metrics. Offensively, defensively, he doesn't
get hit very much. He has very good accuracy. His
power rating is technically higher, and this is a fight
that should take place mostly on the feet. And when
(25:29):
you look at all those things and I'm looking at
this steep price for song, I'm wondering maybe this is
a stab at Guta's. But I think when I go
a little bit deeper at the resume, I am way
more impressed by the resume of Yadong song, and so
that gives me a little.
Speaker 7 (25:44):
Bit more motivation to say, all, he's still worth.
Speaker 6 (25:47):
A parlay or something like that, but at moneyline prices,
I am probably going to pass on this one just
based on the metrics.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
You know, read it, and I don't know if the
models have shown anything here, but you know, all these
rates for KOs and the like, if the fight does
stay standing, we're seeing right now three and a half
rounds is where this is priced juiced heavily right now
about mon style already five to the over if it
does stay standing, do you see.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
Finishing potential here?
Speaker 3 (26:12):
From certainly on the Udong side would be the one
that kind of takes center stage.
Speaker 7 (26:17):
Yeah, think of it at baseline.
Speaker 6 (26:19):
About half of fights will end inside the distance, and
the majority of those that finish inside the distance are
going to be striking finishes.
Speaker 7 (26:26):
So in terms of if you were.
Speaker 6 (26:27):
Just flipping a coin between two random fighters in the UFC,
you would say, in a five round fight, juice to
the over mix. Probably it's roughly accurate here. Combine that
with two guys with very good offensive metrics but also
very good defensive metrics. Neither one of these guys has
really been exploited on the feet and striking, and so
if they get into a stand up duel, it's hard
(26:49):
to know if someone's really going to go down that easy.
I might set the bar a little lower, like one
point five and go over that way, you know, song
over one point you know, a single game parlay type
of situation, that might be the way to go here.
But it's defensively, they haven't really been damaged, and that's
what makes me think they're.
Speaker 7 (27:08):
Going to put up a good fight and no one's
going to go down easy.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Very fascinating there by the way, you know, if you
like him by kot kra DQ, it's plus a dollar
twenty to win by finish just inside the distance there
minus a dollar ten. So some different numbers there if
you don't want to weigh those big price tags that
you are alluding to read. But another one that's a
big favorite here is a guy that I'm always intrigued
to watch now the young sensation out of Japan to
Tetsuro a Tyra and another massive favorite, one of the
(27:33):
biggest ones, if not the biggest one right now on
the card over.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
A five dollar betting favorite.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
What are the numbers showing you with Tetsuro Tyra, because again,
while Dynamics sometimes seems like he struggles to get guys
out of there, yeah that.
Speaker 6 (27:47):
But that won't really matter. I mean, he's definitely on
a path to victory here. This is some of the
most dominant wrestling metrics I've seen lately. So you know,
throw back to Seruki in another situation, very street Steve Price,
but this time we are justifying it with the data
because Hernandez has average takedown defense at best, and so
(28:08):
Tyra is eventually going to get this to the floor.
I see it helps that he's a little bit bigger
and ranger ranger at least to end younger as well,
so he shouldn't fade very quickly. He's very young. So
it's the dominant wrestling. This is very dominant wrestling. These
metrics don't normally see that type of attack. He's attempting
takedowns at a furious pace. He doesn't spend more than
(28:30):
like forty five to fifty seconds at a distance with
anybody before attempting at least one takedown, so you got
to think he's going to get it down quick. And
Hernandez doesn't really show the ground control to stand up
to that. So yeah, Tyra is probably one of your
parlay anchors for everything. I would be shocked if he
took any risks on the feet. I think he gets
it to the floor early, and maybe he gets a
(28:52):
finish because his submissions also come at a furious rate.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
So maybe even look for Tyra inside the distance there
instead of laying that five thirty five, the second is
favorite on the card, but I love that the data
points say that he should be that big a favorite.
Let's get to some dogs potentially that you like that
the data is showing that could be live and one
of them right now that that feels like it's an
interesting price point because it's dropped a lot. Is Andre
Muknees against the iron Turtle here and Park right now?
(29:17):
The numbers come down as the week's going on, What
is the Why is the data pointing to the Andre
side here that maybe here at plus money he's still valuable.
Speaker 6 (29:28):
Yeah, I see these guys matching up very evenly on
the feet give or take, you know their You know,
Munas is actually a lot bigger, which helps him in
this matchup because his defense is also good.
Speaker 7 (29:41):
So it just tells me that for every given.
Speaker 6 (29:43):
Exchange, it's probably going to be Munas either not taking
much damage or at least landing some of his own
with that extra range.
Speaker 7 (29:50):
And so then we got to go to the ground game.
Speaker 6 (29:51):
Well, it's actually Munas that is more likely to initiate takedowns.
They have equivalent ground control time. I mean, maybe Park
has a little bit better because he hasn't faced a.
Speaker 7 (30:00):
Lot of wrestlers.
Speaker 6 (30:01):
But yeah, I'm seeing enough on the side of mune
Is that says this is a very close matchup. Disappointed
the price has come down here, the return has come down.
It's one of those situations, you know, I got to
sit here and bite my nails until weighans before I
really pull. But yeah, I do see upset potential, and
I don't expect the price to change as much where
(30:22):
I would lose.
Speaker 7 (30:23):
A bet here. I think eventually I will be pulling
on Munis.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
Right now is still plus a dollar fifty.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
But you're right, that was over two dollars not that
long ago, so some money certainly has come in on
the Andre side here. Another fighter that's always intriguing is
Jamie Mlarky, and sometimes you don't want to play him
as a big favorite, and now you get him as
an underdog here. I'm seeing plus a dour seventy right
now against Nazrak.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Cosparat Hotspratt is.
Speaker 3 (30:47):
Yeah, we're seeing him just over two dollars betting favorite
here at two five. Why is the data leaning possibly
to the Australian.
Speaker 6 (30:55):
Yeah, Malarkey's a tricky guy and there is some He
is top of mind for me because I was analyzing
him quite a bit for the last matchup where Macdessi
arguably got the better of him on the feet, and
hopefully Malarkey learned from that fight he had a very
close split decision or a close decision with Macdessi.
Speaker 7 (31:13):
Back in his home country.
Speaker 6 (31:14):
Malarkey's out in open water now the judges hopefully are
calling it the way it is.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
Oh, I think we just lost reed, so we'll have
to try to get his connection back if we can.
But yeah, the data points are proving right now that
Malarkey at plus a dollar seventy there could be some
real value there against this fight against Nazark Hosparat. And
again we talked about this a little while ago, and
I thought Dan Riolan did a great job of breaking
this down. Really not a power guy here with hosprot
(31:42):
So if he can't get the fight down to the
ground and it does stay on the feet, that's where
Malarkey could really be live.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
And I believe we read we have your connection back.
Speaker 3 (31:50):
But again the data points are showing that Malarkey is
live here at plus a dollar seventy correct, Yeah, I.
Speaker 6 (31:55):
Do think it is closer than what the prices imply.
I think malarkeyefully learned from that last fight with mcdeski
and takes it to the ground sooner.
Speaker 7 (32:03):
He does have a grappling advantage.
Speaker 6 (32:05):
He has shown good ground control when he uses it,
and so that's I think a situation where that could
help him against Nasrat because Nazrat actually has very crisp
looking hands and has scored a lot more knockdown. So
if Malarkey is smart, I think he gets it down.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
He gets it down earlier, all right, I got it
ninety seconds to go here.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
Speaking of styles that make fights, we know that the
Lionheart wants to get the fight down to the ground.
We know Clil Rowntree wanted to keep this fight standing
in a distance.
Speaker 5 (32:30):
Here.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
If Smith gets those takedowns, you got to think he's
live correct.
Speaker 6 (32:35):
Oh absolutely, Khalil Rowntree has never actually landed a takedown
in his entire UFC career over one hundred and seven
minutes of cage time, so you know he doesn't want
to go there, especially with Anthony Smith. And Anthony Smith
is one of those guys. If he can weather the
early storm, he's got that lionheart spirit, he comes back late,
he wraps you up. He maybe gets a submission at
(32:55):
the end. And so that's the scenario if that's the
scenario I'm hoping for, if I'm going to be backing
the dog here. But he has to survive early because
Khalil Rountree hits like a truck. His knockdown rate is
arguably the best on this entire card. So Anthony Smith
needs to be on his toes, avoid that damage, get
it down early.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
That's where I like him for the upset so very
quickly here.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Correlated to play right, it would be Smith in the
over if you're looking at it, Roundtree in the under.
Speaker 6 (33:23):
Yeah, And either way, there's a lot of finishing potential
on both sides here, So fight does not go the distance,
might be a safe parlay anchor to combine with the
Terra or maybe a you don't song.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
Well, absolutely love it there he is. Everybody give him
a follow on X at Fight Nomics. The one and
only read kun let me come back. We're going to
Chicago to catch up with Jordan sure with. That is
next First strike here.
Speaker 2 (33:43):
On Decent these Sportsbuddy Network.
Speaker 3 (34:13):
We roll on this edition of First Striking. Go to
Chicago to catch up with our guy Jordan.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
Sure what.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
You can follow him on X as I do at
Wood on ESPN one thousand and Jordan, I will say
that our producer Extraordinary Britain has pointed out, you do
have kind of a cark tent looking vibe going today
with the window and the city behind you. You don't
do that on the like. You don't put on a
cape and save lives, do you.
Speaker 8 (34:36):
No, I don't save lives and I definitely don't put
on a cape if you see some of my picks.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
At times, whether it's the NFL or Mixed Martial Arts.
Speaker 8 (34:45):
But I appreciate the compliment, and of course I got
sweetness in the background.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
That's the most.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
Important, greatest running back of all time, right there, Walter Payton, everybody,
all right, let's get to this card here, Jordan, get
your thoughts on this and again the main event. I
got some interesting viewpoints here from our panel of guest today.
Song You Dong obviously a massive favorite against gouts here
and Chris Gutierrez.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Gudierra's plus three dollars.
Speaker 3 (35:08):
Again looking at the price points too, even on the
total at three and a half, choosed heavily to the
over minus is now eighty five.
Speaker 2 (35:14):
Is this a quicker fight or is this.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
A fight that you think Gutierras can extend against Song
You Dong.
Speaker 8 (35:20):
I think he can extend this fight because he's going
to come out and look to establish kind of a
distance and also to establish those leg kicks that he's
very well known for, and he's going to look the
counter strike. So he's gonna maybe ask you know, song
you Dong to lead the dance, and that's right up
you Dong's alley, because I feel like you Dong.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Oh are in his face.
Speaker 8 (35:45):
You know, Corey Sanhagen comes to mind the controversial fight
with Marlon vera guy that's a pressure it could be
a pressure fighter at.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
Times as well.
Speaker 8 (35:51):
So I think this is an ideal stylistic matchup for
Song You Dong, not having to worry about the takedowns.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
But I also believe it.
Speaker 8 (35:58):
Look, we saw song you don go five hard rounds
and then stop Ricky Simone his last time out, he
went four hour rounds and it was a bludgering, but
he did go four rounds with Corey Sanding, and so
I think Song Young is extremely comfortable taking this into
deep waters. And I think that actually has to play
be the play. I think you have to get cute
with the odds and maybe, like you know, take song,
(36:21):
you on to win the fight round three to start
to add a little bit more value, because I'm not confident,
you know, Dave either way, if you Doong's going to
get to finish or he's going to be successful on
the judge's scorecards. So I'd be more confident in playing
a little bit to the round and winner prop And
I obviously do believe you Doong is going to win
the fight.
Speaker 3 (36:39):
Yeah, it's always interesting to me too, because again, your
Dong's got five round experience made of experience, where Gudierras
really does not so very interesting if he's never really
go to that to those waters, if he does take
it there, what would he have left arguably in those
championship rounds in four and five. But I'm with you
on the you donk side. This is interesting because the
iron Turtle here number has come down as the week
(37:02):
has gone on against her muneeze here and right now
I'm seeing Park at about let's see minus an dollar
eighty here at munies plus a dollar fifty.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
What do you make of this line move. That a
lot of money coming in on Andre.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
Yeah, and look I get it.
Speaker 8 (37:16):
I mean look, outside of his his two fight losing streak,
the guy is a wizard on the ground. He looked
like he was certainly going to be a threat, you know,
in the middleweight division, and with his ability to get
those submissions kind of out of nowhere. And plus the
fact too, even though I love the Iron Turtle, I've
passed a lot of times on him and his pressure game.
(37:36):
It's top game. It's very good. You know, he has
been submitted, We've seen.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
Okay, I think we lost Jordan there.
Speaker 8 (37:45):
Maybe he's not not as well.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
Am I still here?
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Yeah? Now you have, we got you back, Jordan.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
Okay, Okay.
Speaker 8 (37:51):
So what I was saying is, look, you know we've
seen Andre Muniaz. We know what he could do from
the submission game, and the Iron Turtle has been submitted before.
But of late, I think that we've seen like the
best that we're going to see out of Muniaz, and
we've seen what when when pressure gets to him, top
game gets to him. I favor the Iron Turtle in
that standpoint. So I love the fact that Iron Turtle
(38:12):
is what tw twenty five to twenty earlier in the week.
Now he's down to a dollar eighty. I get the
risks that that the Iron Turtle is gonna face considering
he's gonna probably want to put Mounia on his Munha's
on his back and he's.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Very comfortable there.
Speaker 8 (38:25):
But if this price continues to tweak down to dollar fifty,
I'm all in on the Iron Turtle.
Speaker 1 (38:31):
I like his game.
Speaker 8 (38:32):
I think he's got enough of the pressure game, the
top game to get Andre out of there.
Speaker 2 (38:35):
And again, so you're gonna wait is.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
When I'm picking up right, You're just gonna keep waiting
on Park for this number to come down, because if
you think there's more Immuni's money to come in, maybe
get this price point down to where you're looking at.
Speaker 2 (38:46):
About a dollar fifty is what you're aiming for.
Speaker 8 (38:49):
Yeah, I think that that that's appropriate. So I don't
I don't disrespect people. I know there's a fellow colleagues
of mine on this show that have picked Muniz think
he's gonna.
Speaker 1 (38:58):
Win and jump at the price early on.
Speaker 8 (39:00):
But I'm going to wait and see and hopefully Park
continues to trend down. And that's a guy that I'm
going to play late because again, I've seen a lot
of success from him throughout his career.
Speaker 3 (39:09):
You know one guy that I think we're all in
unison on is Tetsuara Tyra, and he is a dynamo
here and somebody. You're not going to see him on
the undercards very often. Here the second fight of the night,
but that's where he finds himself here against Carlos Hernandez,
and Tyra is the second biggest betting favorite here at
minus five thirty five.
Speaker 2 (39:26):
The number feels like it's going up. What do you
make of Tyra?
Speaker 3 (39:30):
And is there a better way to play it than
obviously laying over a five dollar price tag?
Speaker 8 (39:34):
Yeah, I mean, look, the five dollar price tag, even
a parlay too risky for me.
Speaker 1 (39:38):
And I understand why the values coming in.
Speaker 8 (39:40):
I mean ESPN just had a list of their potential
future champions and he was listed as one of them
at Flyway and that's because you're right.
Speaker 1 (39:47):
He's a dynamo.
Speaker 8 (39:48):
He's well versed, he's explosive, he's long for the division,
and he's got great submissions. And we saw Carlos Hernandez
to come to a nasamento submission two fights ago, so
we know, he struggles with those longer eyes that are
going to look.
Speaker 1 (40:01):
To take them.
Speaker 8 (40:01):
So for me, it's it's tyra via submission. If you
can get it, maybe even you know, tyra via submission
rounds one or two even add a little bit of
further value to that. But I think, yeah, Tyra, this
is a showcase fight because you got to remember this
fight card was supposed to be in China, so it's
supposed to feature a lot of these Pacific you know fighters. Certainly, yeah,
it's a risk that they have to change up their travel,
(40:23):
come overseas and fight in Vegas. But there's there's there's
a couple of these fights that were showcase fight for fighters,
and I certainly believe Sarah Tyro is going to be
one of them.
Speaker 3 (40:31):
And Jordan very quickly you mentioned that that maybe the
round prop you do it for Tyra via sub is
that what you look at for rounds one and two.
Speaker 1 (40:38):
Sub in round one or via sub in round two.
Speaker 8 (40:40):
I think, yeah, he's going to come out explosive, look
to get Hernandez very quickly out of there established himself
as a true fire contender at Flyway.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
It feels like he is the next right now, possibly
at that division at one hundred and twenty five pounds.
Let's talk about Tim Elliott, because this is a guy
that we know can have absolutely wild exchanges on the
ground and against Suma Jerry.
Speaker 2 (41:01):
This is interesting here.
Speaker 3 (41:03):
Elliott right now is a minus a dour eighty. Suma
Jerry's plus a dollar fifty. We swam Jery in one
of the best fights you're ever going to see here
in defeat. What do you make of Elliott now here
at minus a dollar eighty.
Speaker 8 (41:14):
Yeah, I shake my head because I was on some
Jerry and then Danger Snell spoiled that happen, and look,
I don't know how he did it, but he did it. Uh.
And Suma Jerry, look, he thumps, he's got power. And actually,
even though he was you know, I think I would
have been disrespected in the line against Nosslemento, I was
going to probably play some Suma Jerry.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
I'm probably gonna play Tim Elliott. Now. Tim Elliott looking
to bounce back.
Speaker 8 (41:37):
He had a wind that was tucked in his back pocket,
and then he succumbs to a submission late in the
third round his last fight out.
Speaker 1 (41:44):
But the way that he scrambles and that his pressure game.
Speaker 8 (41:46):
In fact, he just keeps coming after you, and his
ability to get those scrambles I think is gonna you know, uh,
wore some of Jerry out. Plus the fact too, you know,
Tim Elliott has got a pretty good chim and I
know he's getting up there in age and it's probably surprising. Well,
even though he doesn't have to do it, this is
not a flyweight fight. It's a fight that's being at
a catchway fight.
Speaker 1 (42:05):
So good for him.
Speaker 8 (42:05):
He doesn't have to make that drastic weight cut to
make the weight taking this fight on five days notes,
but he's a difficult guy to prepare for. His scrambles
are going to be difficult. So I like a little
bit of a flyer if you will on Tim Elliott
taking this fight on short notice to spoil Summa Jerry.
Speaker 3 (42:20):
You know that's interesting that you mentioned that Elliott had
a fight that he feels like he should have won
until he got caught late Summa Jerry. I don't know
how many times I think it went back and counted.
I thought he had match Schnell out five different times.
Speaker 8 (42:32):
Five different times. It's same, like thirty seconds.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
It was crazy. And look, but here's the thing too,
Like who has Suma.
Speaker 8 (42:39):
Jerry lost to He'd lost the guys that were crazy scramblers,
Louis Smolka and Matt Snell. Tim Elliott is a crazy scrambler,
doesn't have obviously the length that those two guys might have.
But I like Tim Elliott coming in here short notice
spoiling Suma Jerry, which is unfortunately because I'm big on
Suma Jerry. I wanted to cash on him and Schnell
(42:59):
and was going to look to play him as I
mentioned against Noncmento.
Speaker 3 (43:02):
All right, so that should be a wild another wild
exchange coming here between Suma Jerry and Tim tim Elliott.
I do want to ask you very quickly about the
co main event here, because it's a stylistic matchup. When
you look at Lioneheart Smith against Cleil Rowntree Junior, we
know Khalil wants to stand, use leg kicks and strike
and keep this fight on the outside. Anthony Smith has
got to shorten that distance and try to get the
(43:22):
fight down to the ground.
Speaker 2 (43:23):
Have you handicapped either way?
Speaker 3 (43:25):
That if, because if Smith can't get this fight down
to the ground, he doesn't have a real good puncher's
chance of punching with Clil Rowntree.
Speaker 8 (43:32):
Correct, Yeah, I don't want to stand in trade with
Khalil Rowntree. That dude, that dude is just one of
the scariest guys to look at. I mean, he just
stands their stoic. Didn't this line flip like I think
if I if I recall, so, I don't know where
Anthony Smith is. I don't know if he's one foot
in one foot out. I mean I've felt that way
(43:52):
since he had that home invasion incident right back when
and then lost to go over to Share in the
fifth round of what was essentially oliminary. But then he
bounces back and looks great in a.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
Couple of fights.
Speaker 8 (44:02):
So I'll say this, I think I think we're getting
a finish in this fight. I do believe even though
Smith has gone. I think the judges score cards two
the last three times they were getting a finish.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
But I'm not going to.
Speaker 8 (44:13):
Play either side because it's too big of a risk
for Roundtree at two forty five. But I just don't
know what kind of fighter Smith is or what.
Speaker 1 (44:19):
He has left. But I'll take he's savvy enough.
Speaker 8 (44:22):
To spoil Coyle Rowntree on short notice, So I'll just
sit back Lex enjoy it, but play the under on
this one.
Speaker 2 (44:29):
There is everybody the Clark Kent of Chicago.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
Jordan Sherwood, appreciate you as always.
Speaker 2 (44:35):
My friend.
Speaker 3 (44:35):
Want to thank all of our guests for joining us
today and of course Robin Raino Brittain has doing a
great job behind the glass.
Speaker 2 (44:40):
Cast some tickets. We'll see you next week. Right here,
first strike on decent
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